Report for Thursday, August 15, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Thursday, August 15, 2025

Russia evacuates thousands more people as Ukraine claims advances

Ukrainian Special Forces captures over 100 Russian, Chechen soldiers in Kursk Oblast

A Drunken Evening, a Rented Yacht: The Real Story of the Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage

WHO declares MPOX a global public health emergency amid Congo outbreak

Global cyber operation by Russian Intelligence targets critics, civil rights groups & media

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Three Years Later, a ‘Report Card’ for the Taliban  The Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Israel plans new West Bank settlement as tensions threaten to ignite regional war. Israel’s far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich said Wednesday that Israel has published its plans for a proposed new settlement in the occupied West Bank, which most U.N. member states consider to be illegal under international law.  Smotrich framed his  defiant announcement as a response to actions by the Palestinian West Bank leaders and countries that have recognized a Palestinian state. Smotrich, a settler who heads a pro-settler party, said the new 60-hectare settlement will connect the region with Jerusalem.  Peace Now, an Israeli advocacy group, denounced Smotrich’s action as “de facto annexation, disregarding the UNESCO Convention that Israel is a signatory to, and we will all pay the price." His timing was provocative, coming a day before Gaza peace talks, which are key to preventing a regional war.  Reuters

Top Hamas official criticizes U.S. as mediator in Gaza cease-fire talks.  A top Hamas official said the Palestinian militant group is losing faith in the United States’ ability to mediate a cease-fire in Gaza ahead of this week’s Gaza peace talks.  Osama Hamdan of Hamas told The Associated Press Tuesday that weeks ago, CIA Director William Burns sent word to Hamas that Israel would agree to the deal, but “the Americans were unable to convince the Israelis. I think they did not pressure the Israelis.”  Asked about Hamas’ accusation, State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said: “Well, the United States does not think that Hamas is an honest broker.”  Associated Press 

Israelis increasingly back offensive against Hezbollah.  An increasing number of current and former Israeli security officials and politicians support an Israeli military offensive against Hezbollah, whose rocket fire has driven more than 60,000  Israelis away from their homes near Israel’s northern border.  Hezbollah has amassed more than 100,000 rockets, missiles, drones and other projectiles on the border, making it risky for residents to return. Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has called for war with Hezbollah, as have members of Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party.  Centrist politicians, like National Unity party Chairman Benny Gantz, have called for Israel to strike Lebanese infrastructure. But there are strong reasons not to goad Hezbollah into a hot war now.  Israel’s military reservists are exhausted, weapons stocks need replenishing and the country’s economy is reeling. Hezbollah has enough missiles and drones to overwhelm Israel’s air defenses and thousands of fighters to storm Israel.  Civilian casualties are likely if the conflict heats up.  Wall Street Journal

Israeli Shin Bet and Mossad chiefs head to Doha for Gaza cease-fire talks.   An Israeli delegation led by Mossad Director David Barnea and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar is scheduled to depart for Doha Thursday, in hopes of cementing a Gaza cease-fire and hostage release deal. The Israeli team includes Israeli military hostage negotiator, Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political adviser, Ophir Falk. Haaretz reported that Israeli sources are "cautiously optimistic" that the negotiations can move forward.  Haaretz 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russia evacuates thousands more people as Ukraine claims advances. Russia began evacuating thousands more people from its border regions on Thursday after Ukraine said it was advancing deeper into the country in a lightning incursion aimed at forcing Moscow to slow its advance along the rest of the front. At least 200,000 people have so far been evacuated from the border regions, according to Russian data. Supported by drones, artillery, and tanks, Ukrainian forces have advanced 18 kilometers (11 miles) into Russian territory, posing a significant embarrassment to Russia's military leadership. Russia's defense ministry claims it is regaining control through intense battles and airstrikes. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the incursion aims to bolster Ukraine's prisoner exchange capabilities and create a buffer zone. While this move has shifted the war's public narrative, Moscow asserts that the invasion will not alter the war's course. The West, backing Ukraine, denies involvement in the attack, though Russia remains skeptical. Reuters  Associated PressBloomberg

Russia declares federal emergency in Belgorod Oblast. On Thursday, the 10th day of Ukraine's incursion into Russia, the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry declared a federal emergency in Belgorod Oblast. This follows Governor Gladkov's state of emergency declaration due to escalating conflict, with Ukrainian forces controlling 74 settlements in nearby Kursk Oblast. The situation has led to mass evacuations, price increases, and ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks. Russian authorities are struggling to manage the crisis, necessitating federal intervention to support the affected population. Kyiv Independent

Kyiv opens hotline for Russian citizens in Kursk Oblast to request aid, evacuation to Ukraine. Ukraine has opened a hotline for Russian citizens in Kursk Oblast seeking humanitarian aid or evacuation to Ukraine amid ongoing fighting, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said Wednesday. Ukraine is preparing to assist Russian refugees and may establish civil administrative bodies in occupied areas. Humanitarian operations, including safe corridors for civilians, are being planned. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko stated that Russian authorities abandoned civilians in the conflict zone, and Ukraine will provide essential supplies to support them. Kyiv Independent

Ukrainian Special Forces captures over 100 Russian, Chechen soldiers in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian special forces captured 102 Russian and Chechen soldiers in Kursk Oblast on Thursday as part of Ukraine’s ongoing operations in Russia, marking the largest single capture of Russian troops so far in the war, according to a Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) source. The operation targeted a well-fortified Russian military base. Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, emphasized that these captures would facilitate the return of Ukrainian POWs held by Russia. The incursion aims to disrupt Russian reinforcements to Donbas and prevent cross-border strikes. Kyiv Independent

Kyiv says it creates 'buffer zone' in Kursk region, plans evacuation corridors. Ukraine aims to establish a "buffer zone" within Russia's Kursk region as part of a strategic incursion, mirroring a similar area created by Russian forces in Kharkiv. The plans are to hold the seized territory, covering up to 400 square miles, as leverage in future peace negotiations. Ukrainian forces have captured strategic assets, including a railway hub and a natural gas facility, and taken over 2,000 prisoners. Senior Kyiv officials said Ukraine plans to organize humanitarian assistance and evacuation corridors for civilians looking to go either to Russia or to Ukraine. This move has boosted Ukrainian troop morale, following months of high casualties and limited progress against Russian advances. Reuters  The Independent 

Ukraine says it hit four Russian air bases in major drone attack. Ukraine on Wednesday conducted its largest long-range drone strike of the war, targeting four Russian military airfields in Voronezh, Kursk, and Nizhniy Novgorod regions. The strikes, praised by President Zelenskiy as "timely" and "accurate," aimed to disrupt Moscow's ability to use warplanes for bomb attacks on Ukraine. The main targets were fuel and aviation weapon warehouses. While Ukraine is still assessing the damage, Russia claimed to have destroyed 117 drones and four missiles. Reuters Associated Press  Washington Post 

As Kyiv makes gains in Kursk, Russia strikes back in Donetsk. While Ukraine's incursion into Russian territory has led to significant evacuations and exposed weaknesses in Russia's border defenses, Russia has continued to make gains in the Donbas region. Despite the embarrassment of Ukraine's advance, Russian forces have reportedly improved their positions along the front and maintain control over 18% of Ukraine. Russia's defense ministry highlights ongoing intense battles and airstrikes in response to Ukraine's incursion. Moscow insists that this Ukrainian attack will not alter the overall trajectory of the war, as Russia continues to advance in the Donbas, leveraging its numerical superiority.Politico EU Reuters 

ANALYSIS–Ukraine gambled on an incursion deep into Russian territory. The bold move changed the battlefield. Ukraine's incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has altered the war dynamics for both sides. For Ukraine, it demonstrated military prowess and bolstered national morale, particularly after setbacks earlier in the conflict. The incursion has also pressured Russia to redirect resources and troops from other fronts, potentially weakening their overall strategic position. Politically, the operation challenges the notion of Russia’s invulnerability and could shift leverage in future peace negotiations. However, the extended front line strains Ukraine’s already limited resources, leaving it vulnerable in other critical areas. Associated Press

Ukraine’s Incursion into Russia Flips the Script on Putin. Ukraine’s incursion into Russia's Kursk region has exposed significant vulnerabilities in Russia's border defenses and disrupted the Kremlin’s narrative of steady progress in the war. The operation has forced Russia into a phase of improvisation, highlighted by President Vladimir Putin’s uncharacteristic public displays of uncertainty. The incursion has also raised concerns about the potential involvement of Russian conscripts, which could fuel anti-war sentiment domestically. This unexpected setback for Russia could weaken its offensive capabilities in eastern Ukraine and undermine public confidence in the government’s handling of the war. New York Times

Russian lawmaker Butina says the West is 'poking the bear' with Ukraine incursion. Russian lawmaker Maria Butina accused the West of escalating the conflict by supporting Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region, calling it "poking the bear." Butina labeled the attack as "international terrorism" and insisted the West is responsible for escalating tensions. She urged a military response to push Ukrainian forces out and hold the West accountable. Western nations, including the U.S., have denied involvement in the operation. Reuters

Russian drone attack kills two medics in Ukraine's Kharkiv region, say police. A Russian drone attack in Ukraine's Kharkiv region killed two medics and wounded three civilians, according to local police. The attack targeted a medical battalion vehicle in Bilyy Kolodiaz.Reuters 

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 5, injure 21 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine on Thursday killed at least five people and injured 21 others, according to regional authorities. Ukrainian air defenses downed all 29 "kamikaze" drones launched by Russia overnight. Kharkiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk Oblasts were heavily targeted, with multiple casualties and significant infrastructure damage reported. In Kharkiv Oblast, a drone attack killed two combat medics, while in Kherson, one person was killed, and 13 were injured, including a child. Other regions were also attacked but reported no civilian casualties. Kyiv Independent

Swarm Wars: The Shaky Rise Of AI Drones In Ukraine. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has accelerated drone technology development, but fully autonomous AI drones remain limited, particularly on the battlefield. Ukraine faces losses from Russian jamming devices, leading developers to prioritize reducing electronic warfare impacts. AI-assisted drones, which can operate independently of controllers during attacks, offer potential solutions, but their high cost and vulnerability to hacking pose challenges. Globally, China and the U.S. are expanding drone capabilities, anticipating future wars heavily involving swarming, disposable drones. Despite advancements, concerns about safety, reliability, and ethical implications continue to hinder full deployment. RFE/RL

Russia Sentences U.S. Citizen to 12 Years in Prison on Treason Charges. Ksenia Karelina, a dual Russian-American citizen, was sentenced Thursday to 12 years in prison by a Russian court for treason after donating $52 to a New York-based nonprofit that allegedly purchased weapons and medical aid for Ukraine's military. Her lawyer plans to appeal the sentence and pursue her inclusion in potential future prisoner exchanges between Russia and the West. The case highlights the Kremlin's increasing use of treason charges against Western citizens since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. New York Times

On Russia’s Border, Fear and Defiance: ‘No One Will Chase Us Out of Here’. Moscow is redirecting military forces from Ukraine to counter Kyiv’s unexpected incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, where historical ties between Ukrainians and Russians are now strained. The incursion has sparked fear and displacement among Kursk residents, with many fleeing to safer areas. Despite the Kremlin downplaying the situation, videos of Ukrainian advances and fleeing Russian conscripts are widely shared. While Russia continues to make gains in eastern Ukraine, Kyiv’s ability to sustain its operations in Kursk is uncertain due to stretched resources and supply lines. Local resistance in Kursk is also growing as residents prepare to defend their land. Wall Street Journal

ANALYSIS–Ukraine’s risky incursion into Russia marks a new and perilous phase of the war. Ukraine’s incursion into Russia's Kursk region is a bold and risky escalation in the ongoing war. This operation, while momentarily successful, raises critical questions about Ukraine's broader strategy. Analysts suggest that the move could strain Ukraine’s military resources by forcing it to fight on multiple fronts, potentially weakening its position in the crucial Donbas region. The operation is seen as an effort to compel Russia to redeploy its forces, thus relieving pressure on other battlefields. However, the long-term effectiveness of this approach remains uncertain, with concerns that it might lead to significant Ukrainian losses without achieving strategic gains. The analysis underscores the precarious balance Ukraine must maintain between audacious actions and sustainable military operations. Globe and Mail

Ukraine presidential adviser denies Ukraine's involvement in Nord Stream explosions. Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak denied Ukraine's involvement in the 2022 explosions that damaged the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, instead blaming Russia. He argued that only Russia had the necessary resources to carry out such an attack and noted that Ukraine had no strategic or tactical gain from the incident. The explosions, which occurred seven months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, severed much of Russia's gas supply to Europe. While Russia has blamed Ukraine, the U.S., and Britain, these countries have denied any involvement, and investigations by European nations are ongoing. Reuters

SBU says it busted Russian spy network, including ex-members of Yanukovych's security.  The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) announced on August 14 that it had dismantled a Russian spy network, which allegedly included two former members of ex-President Viktor Yanukovych's security detail and an active member of Ukraine's National Guard. This spy cell, allegedly led by 48-year-old Dmytro Ivantsov, a former head of a State Security Administration unit, was involved in gathering intelligence on high-ranking Ukrainian officials to eliminate, manipulate, or recruit them. Ivantsov, along with Roman Lapa, another former deputy head of Yanukovych's security, is believed to be working with Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) from Russian-occupied Crimea. The National Guard member, who was collecting information from internal systems, has been detained and charged with treason, facing up to 15 years in prison. The discovery comes after the SBU previously uncovered a Russian plot to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other officials.  Kyiv Independant

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, August 14, 2024. Ukrainian forces made marginal advances in Kursk Oblast as Russian forces attempt to stabilize the frontline amid a slower pace of Ukrainian operations. Ukrainian officials discussed the political impact of ongoing operations in Kursk Oblast, emphasizing their strategic goals. Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast are causing defensive, logistical, and security challenges within Russia. The Russian government is actively recruiting to support operations in Kursk Oblast. Chechen Commander Apty Alaudinov's claims about Russian defense in Kursk Oblast are inconsistent with other Russian sources. Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on Russian air bases, damaging several facilities. Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party echoed Kremlin narratives justifying Russia’s actions against former Soviet states.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces advanced north of Kharkiv City and southeast of Pokrovsk. Institute for the Study of War 

Opinion: 6 ways Ukraine’s Kursk incursion is changing the tide of war. Andreas Umland writes that Ukraine’s Kursk incursion marks the first large-scale military offensive by Ukraine's official military, distinguishing it from previous smaller raids by semi-regular units. The incursion has been unexpectedly successful, capturing 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory, including significant logistical hubs. It has led to the largest change in the war’s front line since Ukraine’s 2022 offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson. The operation serves as a belated implementation of Ukraine's stalled 2023 counteroffensive, shifting the war from attrition to maneuver warfare. The incursion has shifted the war from being fought exclusively on Ukrainian territory to involving Russian soil, causing embarrassment for the Kremlin. It raises questions about Russia’s nuclear threats and suggests that Ukraine’s strategy is forcing Moscow to reallocate resources to defend its own territory. Kyiv Independent

Opinion: It's time for a major overhaul of US policy on Ukrainian strikes in Russia. Serhii Kuzan argues that the U.S. must urgently revise its policy to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory to counter Russia's escalating aggression effectively. He contends that lifting restrictions on long-range strikes would hinder Russia's ability to launch attacks and protect Ukrainian cities and military positions. Kuzan emphasizes that political considerations should not override sound military strategy, as current limitations are hurting Ukraine’s security and battlefield effectiveness. Kyiv Independent

AMERICAS

NASA considering whether to bring home 2 astronauts or keep them at space station until next year. NASA is currently deliberating whether to extend the stay of two astronauts, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, at the International Space Station (ISS) until early next year, due to issues with Boeing's Starliner capsule. The astronauts, who were supposed to return to Earth shortly after their mission, are now in limbo due to thruster failures and helium leaks that occurred during their trip to the ISS. These issues have raised concerns about the capsule's ability to safely return to Earth. NASA is analyzing more data and plans to make a decision by the end of next week or the beginning of the following week. If the decision is made to keep the astronauts at the ISS, they would return on SpaceX’s next flight in February, instead of using the Starliner. This would require adjustments to the planned crew rotations, as well as managing the limited docking spaces at the ISS. Boeing maintains that Starliner could still safely bring the astronauts home, but NASA is taking a cautious approach. The agency’s decision will also affect the current SpaceX crew, whose mission has already been extended by a month due to the uncertainty with Starliner. Associated Press

Defense Secretary Faces Pushback for Scuttling Sept. 11 Plea Bargain.  Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is facing both legal challenges and political pressure following his decision to revoke a plea deal that would have resolved the long-delayed case against accused 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two co-defendants. The plea deal, which would have spared the defendants from the death penalty in exchange for life sentences, was canceled shortly after it was announced, in response to Republican criticisms that the Biden administration was being lenient on terrorists. A military judge is now reviewing whether Austin had the authority to cancel the agreement. Meanwhile, Senator Dick Durbin, a senior Democrat, has urged Austin to reconsider, arguing that securing life sentences is the most realistic outcome given the legal complexities and tainted evidence associated with the case. The judge's decision could potentially lead to further legal scrutiny of the communications between the White House and Pentagon regarding the plea deal.  Wall Street Journal 

‘Chaos agent':  Iran flexes digital muscles before US election.  Iran is intensifying its efforts to meddle in American politics, U.S. officials and private cybersecurity firms say, with the suspected hack of Donald Trump’s campaign being only the latest and most brazen example. Iran is known as a “chaos agent” that marshals cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns.  In recent months groups linked to the government in Tehran have covertly encouraged protests over Israel’s war in Gaza, impersonated American activists and created networks of fake news websites and social media accounts to spread false and misleading information. Google’s Threat Analysis Group announced an analysis of APT42, an Iranian government-backed threat actor. Associated Press    Politico   Politico GovInfoSecurity  Google 

U.S.-Iranian citizen charged with exporting aircraft components to Tehran. The U.S. Justice Department on Wednesday charged 68-year-old U.S.-Iranian national Jeffrey Chance Nader with crimes involving the alleged export of American-built aircraft components to Iran, in violation of U.S. federal laws and economic sanctions. Nader, who was arrested in California on August 13, has been accused of conspiring to buy and unlawfully export four kinds of aircraft components, some of which are used in military aircraft operated by Iran’s armed forces, including U.S.-made F-4 fighter jets. These components totaled almost three dozen individual pieces. The Justice Department, who has also accused some of Nader’s associates of conspiracy, argued that the indictment underscores its “commitment to keeping military-grade equipment out of the hands of the Iranian regime.” RFE/RL 

EUROPE

A Drunken Evening, a Rented Yacht: The Real Story of the Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage.  The Nord Stream pipeline sabotage, a major attack on critical infrastructure, was allegedly carried out by Ukrainian military officers and private businessmen in 2022. The operation, which cost around $300,000, involved a small, rented yacht and a crew of six, including trained civilian divers. Initially approved by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the plan was later called off by him after the CIA got wind of it. However, Ukrainian military chief General Valeriy Zaluzhniy reportedly proceeded with the attack. The sabotage worsened the energy crisis in Europe, with the attack leading to significant damage and sparking international tensions. German investigators, aided by evidence such as DNA and mobile phone data, have linked the operation to Ukrainian nationals, but attempts to arrest key suspects have been thwarted. The incident has strained relations between Kyiv and Berlin, with potential diplomatic repercussions. Wall Street Journal 

Finnish PM glad China is cooperating in Baltic pipe probe but warns ‘case is not closed.’Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo on Wednesday expressed satisfaction with China's cooperation in the investigation of the destroyed Balticconnector gas pipeline but cautioned that it is too early to say definitively what happened. The pipeline, which runs between Finland and Estonia, was damaged in October, and Beijing recently claimed that a Chinese-owned ship, the NewNew Polar Bear, accidentally destroyed it by dragging its anchor across the seabed during a storm. Though China has provided Finland and Estonia with the results of its internal investigation, which confirms the incident as an accident, these findings are not admissible as evidence in the criminal investigation led by Finnish authorities. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal noted that Tallinn and Helsinki have requested further documentation. He mentioned that the investigation will ultimately determine responsibility for the damage and who will bear the cost of repairs, which amounted to €35 million. There has been skepticism, particularly from Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur, about the claim that the incident was accidental, with Pevkur questioning how the ship’s captain could have been unaware of the dragging anchor. Despite these concerns, it is considered unlikely that Beijing will change its stance or offer compensation. The situation has sparked significant debate among Baltic Sea countries, and the investigation continues. South China Morning Post

China resubmits plans to construct a contested embassy in London. China has resubmitted plans to build a new, large embassy in London, a project that had previously been rejected by the Tower Hamlets council on security grounds and concerns about its impact on local residents. The resubmission comes shortly after the new Labour government took power in July, potentially testing how this government will manage relations with Beijing amid ongoing diplomatic strain. China's initial application was rejected in December 2022, and although it missed the deadline to appeal, it has now opted to submit a fresh application. While the local council will initially review the application, the national government could intervene if the proposal is rejected again and China appeals. Some British politicians and security officials have expressed worries that a larger embassy could lead to an increase in Chinese espionage activities in the UK.  If completed, this embassy would be the largest Chinese diplomatic mission in Europe and nearly twice the size of its Washington embassy. Chinese officials have expressed frustration over the delays in securing planning permission and have discussed the issue with British officials earlier this year. Reuters The Telegraph 

Germany investigates water supply tampering on Cologne-Wahn military base. The Cologne-Wahn military base in western Germany was temporarily closed on Wednesday after the discovery of a potential act of sabotage involving its water supply. A guard noticed a hole in the fence near the base's drinking water facility, and unusual values were detected in the water system. Authorities cut off the water supply as a precaution, and the incident is under investigation by police and military counterintelligence. The Cologne-Wahn base is home to about 4,300 soldiers and 1,200 civilian personnel, including various command authorities and aircraft used by the defense ministry. The base is also a key transport center for Ukrainian soldiers trained in Germany. Separately, there were reports of a security incident at a NATO base in Geilenkirchen, North Rhine-Westphalia, in which an unauthorized person attempted to enter the base. The person, however, was “prevented” by a security guard “in a normal way.” Although initial reports suggested possible sabotage of the water supply at the NATO base, this was later denied by a NATO spokesperson. The incident in Cologne is part of a broader context of increased concerns in Germany about espionage and sabotage, particularly from foreign adversaries like Russia, China, and Iran. Recent incidents include an arson attack on a metal factory belonging to an arms manufacturer, allegedly carried out by Russian saboteurs. Politico Deutsche Welle Reuters 

Russia sentences U.S. national to 15 days in jail for petty hooliganism. A Moscow court on Wednesday sentenced a U.S. citizen, Joseph Tater, to 15 days in detention on charges of petty hooliganism. Tater was detained on August 12, with reports suggesting he had used violence against a police officer. The U.S. State Department is aware of the situation and is working to gather more information and seek consular access. This incident occurs in the context of strained Washington-Moscow relations, where several other Americans remain imprisoned in Russia despite a recent, historic prisoner swap on August 1. RFE/RL

German airports suspend flights as climate activists breach security. Two German airports temporarily suspended flights on Thursday after climate activists from the Last Generation campaign group breached airfields in a protest targeting four airports across the nation. The activists glued themselves to the tarmac, causing delays at Nuremberg and Cologne-Bonn airports, but did not enter the runway area. Berlin and Stuttgart airports were also affected, but flight operations were largely unaffected. The protests are part of a campaign urging the German government to commit to phasing out fossil fuels by 2030. German politicians are calling for better airport security and harsher penalties for such actions Reuters

THE MIDDLE EAST

The Saudi Crown Prince is Talking About An Assassination. His Own. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has increasingly expressed concerns to American lawmakers about the risks to his life due to the pursuit of a major diplomatic deal involving the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Israel, which includes normalizing ties between Riyadh and Israel. MBS has likened his situation to that of Anwar Sadat, the Egyptian leader assassinated after making peace with Israel, and stresses that any such agreement must include a credible path to a Palestinian state, especially given the Muslim world’s heightened anger towards Israel following the war in Gaza. Despite these risks, MBS appears determined to strike the deal, which is still in development. The agreement involves U.S. security guarantees, support for a civilian nuclear program, and economic investments for Saudi Arabia, in exchange for Riyadh limiting its ties with China and normalizing relations with Israel. MBS is well aware that the Israeli government is resistant to including the creation of a Palestinian state in the deal, but this resistance complicates the situation, as the autocratic prince believes that addressing the Palestinian issue is essential for regional stability and his own security as a leader. While MBS is taking a significant personal risk in pursuing this deal, it remains unclear if his strategy will persuade Israel to make concessions. The broader implications of the pact could massively reshape the Middle East, particularly in forming a united front against Iran, but its success depends on overcoming significant hurdles. Politico 

Iranian court acquits rapper sentenced to death over protest lyrics. Iranian rapper Toomaj Salehi, who was previously sentenced to death for his protest songs against the Islamic Republic, has been acquitted by the Revolutionary Court of Isfahan. The court's ruling, issued on Wednesday, came after the Supreme Court overturned his death sentence, which had been imposed on the charge of "corruption on Earth." The case was then sent back to a parallel branch of the Revolutionary Court for reconsideration. Salehi was initially arrested in October 2022 for supporting protests following the death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who died in police custody. Known for his lyrics criticizing corruption, poverty, executions, and government repression, Salehi gained prominence as a vocal critic of the Iranian regime. After spending time in solitary confinement, he was sentenced to six years in prison, but the Supreme Court later found flaws in the original sentence, leading to his release on appeal in November 2023. However, he was re-arrested shortly after, allegedly after a video of his torture in prison was published. Amnesty International has reported that Salehi was subjected to torture and repeated beatings during his detention. RFE/RL 

Iran hands down prison sentences to five women’s rights advocates. Five Iranian women’s rights activists, Nina Golestani, Anahita Hejazi, Anahita Dostdar, Rosita Rajaei, and Nagin Adalatkhah have been sentenced to a cumulative of over 20 years in prison. They were arrested along with other women activists in the city of Rasht in November, and each received three years and six months for "assembly and collusion" and an additional seven months and 16 days for "propaganda against the regime." Their arrests and sentences are linked to their involvement in the "Women, Life, Freedom" protests that erupted after the killing of Mahsa Amini, who died in police custody in September 2022 after being arrested for allegedly wearing her head scarf improperly. RFE/RL 

ASIA & OCEANIA

China to build new ship modeled on sophisticated Type 052D destroyer. Reports suggest that China is constructing a new coastguard vessel based on the advanced Type 052D guided-missile destroyer, equipped with high-tech surveillance systems. This ship is expected to operate in the East and South China Seas, regions where China faces ongoing territorial disputes, particularly with the Philippines. The vessel, recently spotted at a Shanghai shipyard, has been modified from its original destroyer design, removing its vertical launch system and replacing its main gun with a smaller 76mm model. It also features Type 382 air search radars, boosting its air surveillance capabilities. The ship fills a gap in the coastguard’s fleet with its 6,000 to 7,000-tonne displacement and can operate over 6,000 nautical miles, allowing for extended missions in the South China Sea. Beijing is bolstering its coastguard, which already has the world's largest fleet, in response to increased clashes with other claimants in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and near Taiwan. Meanwhile, neighboring countries like Japan and the Philippines are also expanding their fleets to counter Chinese activities in the region. South China Morning Post

China set to enhance financial support for military personnel, veterans. Beijing is revising regulations to increase financial support for military personnel and veterans, easing the burden on local governments. These changes, effective from October 1, will see the central government taking primary responsibility for funding military-related benefits, including medical care, compensation for service-related injuries or deaths, and various veteran benefits such as housing, transport, and education. These costs were previously shared by central and local governments. The amendments are part of broader efforts to support China’s military and help veterans transition to civilian life. New provisions also encourage society to foster patriotism and respect for military personnel. These regulations affect the 2 million active members of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), 57 million veterans, and 500,000 members of the armed police. The changes aim to address long-standing complaints from veterans about inadequate support and are part of a series of measures to protect veterans’ rights. President Xi Jinping has emphasized the importance of supporting veterans and ensuring they are esteemed, asserting that the military should be “a profession that is respected by the whole society.” South China Morning Post

South Korean leader seeking talks, road to unification with reclusive North. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on Thursday proposed the idea of creating a working-level consultative body with North Korea to relax strains and explore economic cooperation, as part of his hope for the unification of the Korean Peninsula. In his National Liberation Day speech, marking the 79th anniversary of Korea's independence from Japanese colonial rule, Yoon expressed readiness to begin cooperation if Pyongyang makes a move towards denuclearization. Despite Yoon's outreach, including an offer of flood relief aid that North Korea rejected, the prospects for unification remain bleak, with relations between the two nations at a historically low point; North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has labeled Seoul a "primary foe” and is continuing to advance the country’s nuclear and missile programs. Yoon suggested that the proposed “inter-Korean working group” could address various issues, from economic collaboration to reunions of families separated by the Korean War. He also mentioned the idea of an international conference on the North's human rights and a fund to increase global awareness and drum up support for North Koreans, which experts believe Pyongyang may perceive as a threat to its regime. Reuters

Flight of Bangladesh’s Hasina could signal loss of India’s South Asian allies to China.  The ousting of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a critical friend to India, has posed a problem for the future of India’s "Neighborhood First" policy and the potential shift in regional influence towards China. Hasina had strong ties with New Delhi, and her departure complicates India's relations with smaller South Asian countries. One analyst suggested that while Bangladesh is undergoing a reform process before elections, it will require India's support. But Bangladesh’s opposition parties traditionally favor closer ties with China and Pakistan, and Beijing's influence in Bangladesh is notable, especially in defense cooperation, with significant arms exports and joint military exercises. This situation adds to India's challenges in regional diplomacy, as it faces setbacks in Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Nepal, and Afghanistan, where China's influence is growing. India’s "Neighborhood First" policy is non-reciprocal, aiming to support the growth and stability of its neighbors, but it faces challenges from China's increasing influence. Experts suggest India may need to adjust its approach to accommodate the Asian giant’s presence in the region. While the situation in Bangladesh could pose geopolitical challenges, practical considerations, like trade and water security, might lead to a workable relationship between New Delhi and Dhaka. Despite current difficulties, India's regional influence ultimately depends on its own stability and progress. South China Morning Post

China pledges aid for Myanmar elections, regime-backed media reports.  Myanmar’s state-backed media reported Thursday that China has pledged to provide technical support and aid to the Southeast Asian nation's military regime to help conduct a census and subsequent election. This development indicates Beijing's support of the ruling junta amidst an ongoing armed insurgency and mounting territorial losses. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Myanmar's junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, on Wednesday, where they discussed holding an "all-inclusive election," with China offering technological assistance for the census and essential aid for the election. Myanmar's military recently extended emergency rule to allow more time to gather census data for voter lists, with an election planned for next year. However, this election is widely viewed as a fraudulent pretense, with many opposition parties, including the National League for Democracy, disbanded for not registering. China underscored its policy of non-interference and support for Myanmar's chosen development path, expressing its opposition to external interference and domestic conflicts. The meeting also addressed issues in the volatile border areas, including the resurgence of fighting after a ceasefire brokered by China fell apart in June, leading to significant defeats for the junta. Following his visit to Myanmar, Wang Yi is set to attend a regional foreign ministers' meeting in Thailand. Reuters Associated Press 

AFRICA

WHO declares MPOX a global public health emergency amid Congo outbreak. The World Health Organization (WHO) on Wednesday declared MPOX, formerly known as monkeypox, a global public health emergency for the second time in two years. This follows an outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) that has spread to neighboring countries, such as Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda. The WHO's highest alert level, known as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), seeks to hasten funding, research, and international cooperation to contain the disease. The outbreak in the DRC started with an endemic strain (clade I), but a new variant (clade Ib) that spreads more easily, including through sexual contact, has emerged. The situation is considered alarming due to the potential for further spread within Africa and beyond. WHO has released $1.5 million in contingency funds and plans to appeal for more funding, with an initial need of $15 million. The disease has resulted in over 17,000 suspected cases and more than 500 deaths this year, mostly among children in Congo. WHO is also urging countries with vaccine stockpiles to donate doses, as vaccines are currently unavailable in the affected regions. Further study is needed to understand the transmission routes in Congo. Reuters BBC CNN Al Jazeera

Sudanese army does not attend peace talks in Switzerland. Though another round of peace talks aimed at ending Sudan’s civil war began in Geneva on Wednesday, the Sudanese army has failed to attend, stamping down hopes that these latest negotiations will bring about change, or snuff out 16-months of brutal conflict. The talks are being led by the U.S. and involve various international representatives, including from Egypt, the United Nations, the African Union, the East African body IGAD, and the United Arab Emirates. Both sides have been accused of violating previous agreements, committing abuses against civilians, and obstructing aid deliveries. The RSF has sent a delegation to the talks and expressed willingness to negotiate a new peace deal if the army engages. Army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has maintained a defiant stance, insisting that military operations will continue until the RSF withdraws from occupied areas. Meanwhile, the conflict has devastated Sudan, killing tens of thousands, displacing over 10.7 million internally, and forcing 2.3 million refugees to flee the country. The U.N. has warned that Sudan is at a "cataclysmic breaking point," with tens of thousands of preventable deaths expected from hunger, violence, disease, and floods if the fighting persists. Al Jazeera

Malian insurgents claim they’ve received no aid from Ukraine, other foreigners. Mali's Tuareg rebel alliance has asserted that it received no external assistance, including from Ukraine, in its late July battles against Mali's army and its Wagner partners. In early August, the rebels reported killing 84 Russian Wagner mercenaries and 47 Malian soldiers in Tinzaouaten, a town near the Algerian border, marking Wagner's heaviest defeat since their involvement began two years ago. Ukraine denied any involvement after Mali severed diplomatic ties over remarks by a Ukrainian official that were misinterpreted as support for the rebels. The Tuareg insurgents have confirmed they have not received any financial or military aid from Kyiv. Reuters

CYBER & TECH

Eric Schmidt Walks Back Claim Google Is Behind on AI Because of Remote Work. Eric Schmidt, former CEO and executive chairman of Google, has retracted his earlier comments suggesting that Google's remote work policies were causing the company to fall behind in the artificial intelligence race. Schmidt had initially criticized Google's work-life balance approach, claiming it was prioritized over the company's competitive edge in AI development. However, he later expressed regret for his statement, acknowledging he had misspoken. Schmidt's remarks, which were made during a talk at Stanford University, were later removed from public access at his request. Despite his retraction, the incident highlights ongoing debates among corporate leaders, including Schmidt, about the impact of remote work on company efficiency and competitiveness.  Wall Street Journal 

Russian intelligence launches global cyber operation targeting critics, civil rights groups & media.  Two civil society groups are out with reports on the efforts of Russian intelligence operatives to target domestic critics, journalists, and human rights groups with tailored phishing attacks.  Access Now, a digital rights group, and Citizen Lab, a research nonprofit, describe phishing emails directed at, among others, the Russian rights organization, First Department.  The reports indicate that Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), and other espionage elements have employed sophisticated phishing techniques that reflect extensive knowledge of target organizations while avoiding detection with advanced hacking technology.  The leader of the First Department rights group shared with the Washington Post an incident involving a fake email masquerading as originating with a First Department colleague that carried an attachment with a bogus log-in page for a popular email service.  Researchers linked one phishing campaign to the ColdRiver hacking group, which previously has been identified as an FSB affiliate.  Another campaign was conducted by ColdWastrel, a threat actor associated with another Russian security service.  Additional phishing campaigns targeted the Proekt Media news organization, which investigates corruption among Russian officials.  Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine also received a phishing email that posed as being sent by another former U.S. diplomat.  Citizen Lab said the targets of the phishing operations were likely selected for their “extensive networks among sensitive communities,” adding that “successful compromise could result in extremely serious consequences, such as imprisonment or physical harm to themselves or their contacts.”   Washington Post   The Record   CyberScoop   Bloomberg   Reuters

NIST’s new post-quantum algorithms require fast implementation by Federal agencies.  The National Institute of Standards & Technology (NIST) this week released final versions of three post-quantum encryption algorithms designed to provide protection against hacking operations carried out with future quantum computers.  The new algorithms must be implemented by Federal national security agencies, including the Pentagon, by 2025, although the NIST standards are recommended, but voluntary, for private entities.  RAND scientist Edward Parker pointed to the urgency of incorporating the algorithms: “There’s no time to waste,” he said, adding that any organization responsible for sensitive data “should get moving on migrating to PQC [post-quantum cryptography] as soon as possible.”  Federal agencies have been preparing for the algorithms by inventorying existing systems and scouring embedded software for encryption codes that must be replaced.  Parker noted that the transition to the new algorithms is likely to uncover surprises in existing systems such as the presence of “traditional cryptography algorithms unexpectedly hard-coded in.”  These issues, Parker said, probably can be resolved, adding “I don’t think there are any true deal-breakers lurking out there.”  Another quantum expert observed that the NIST algorithms will contribute not only to defenses against quantum attacks, “but also provide full protection against a conventional hack.”  It appears likely that many Federal components will look to the private sector for assistance in implementing the algorithms.  Parker recommended that organizations handling sensitive data “should now be asking their cybersecurity vendors for their plans and timelines for transitioning to PQC.”  BreakingDefense   Wall Street Journal   NextGov   Politico   FedScoop   TechCrunch   NIST

DARPA ‘Cyber Challenge’ seeks autonomous agents to fix open-source software flaws.  Recent AI advances indicate that the goal of creating autonomous digital agents to explore open-source code, locate flaws, and repair them may be within reach.  This is one of the outcomes of the contest run by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), which last weekend gathered 90 hacking teams at the DefCon conference in Las Vegas for what it called the Artificial Intelligence Cyber Challenge.  The teams discovered 22 unique vulnerabilities in open-source programs and automatically repaired 15 of them.  In addition, an Atlanta team uncovered a previously unknown flaw in the SQLite database software, one of the most popular open-source programs in the world.  Autonomous find-and-fix agents have been described as the “white whale” of AI development: “a technological breakthrough that could deliver massive gains in cybersecurity.”  Perri Adams, a DARPA special assistant, said the competition aimed at determining if AI could make a decisive difference in cyber defenses.  She added that the technology “could be a revolutionary add-on to existing program analysis methods for finding and fixing vulnerabilities.”  Seven semifinalist teams emerged from the Cyber Challenge and will have until DefCon 2025 to refine their AI systems for the concluding competition. Omkhar Arasaratnam, general manager at the Open-Source Security Foundation (OpenSSF) and an advisor to the Challenge, said “we hope to see fully autonomous Cyber Reasoning Systems (CRSs) that will identify and resolve security defects.  …Next year, we anticipate even more efficient and accurate CRSs that can identify and remediate entire classes of vulnerabilities within open-source software.”  CyberScoop   GovExec  Axios   The Record

Chinese military researchers report breakthrough in cheap aircraft stealth coating.  Researchers for China’s People’s Liberation Army report the development of inexpensive, high-performance stealth materials that can be mass produced.  According to a research paper published in the Chinese journal, Hot Working Technology, the new coating material offers stealth properties against radar and infrared detection.  The coating requires only one metal – iron – and can be produced with ordinary equipment such as readily available laser processing machinery.   The team’s report noted that “using metallic iron to prepare radar and infrared compatible stealth coatings has not been reported in public.”  Reportedly, the researchers intentionally omitted key information in their report, including the pattern of the laser-etched microstructure so other countries cannot replicate the material.  Laboratory testing of the material demonstrated that the composite coating not only absorbed electromagnetic waves, but also reduced infrared signal intensity by more than 80 percent.  South China Morning Post

Pentagon reportedly will remove Chinese laser sensor maker from PLA blacklist.  The Pentagon reportedly will remove a Chinese manufacturer of laser sensors for electric vehicles from its blacklist of companies affiliated with Beijing’s military.  Hesai, the world’s largest producer of EV lasers, was added to the list of “Chinese military companies” in January.  In May, the company filed suit against the DoD, asserting it had no connection to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).  Sources say that U.S. government lawyers were not confident that their argument for Hesai’s addition to the blacklist would be sustained under court review.  The Pentagon has not commented on the Hesai case as litigation continues.  The Chinese embassy in Washington welcomed the reported DoD decision, describing it as a move toward providing “a fair, just and non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese companies.”  However, John Moolenaar, the chair of a House committee on the Chinese Communist Party, cautioned that “if the United States allows Chinese Communist party-affiliated firms like Hesai to dominate our market, we will cede our vehicles, factories, ports, and other critical infrastructure to direct CCP surveillance and manipulation.”  Financial Times

Chinese local officials explore barter trade with Russia as sanctions workaround.  Provincial government officials in China are exploring options for barter trading with Russian vendors, in part to circumvent Western sanctions.  In a June meeting of provincial officials, a cross-border trade association from Shandong shared its experiences with counterparts from other areas in developing barter-trade in various African nations in connection with advancing “new types of barter trades between China and Russia.”  A municipal commerce bureau official commented that “trade with Russia has both difficulties and opportunities. We must seize the opportunity in a timely manner, strengthen research into new barter-trade formats, dare to innovate, and break with tradition.”  Barter trading between China and Russia reportedly would alleviate payment issues that have hindered cross-border transactions.  In addition, barter practices could cloud Western regulators’ insights into bilateral transactions.  Chinese barter exports to Asian and African states have involved vehicles and spare parts, building materials, IT products, medical surgical instruments, and household appliances.  Reuters has reported that Moscow and Beijing may launch barter-trading activities, initially involving agriculture, in an effort to limit banking transactions monitored by the United States.  An official with a Shanghai research firm pointed to the need for new regulations to define barter practices, noting “there is a lack of uniformity in regulatory and enforcement standards, and large-scale cross-border barter trade has not yet taken shape.”  South China Morning Post

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Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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