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Thursday, April 27, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

Americas

US to Give South Korea Role in Response Planning. On Wednesday, President Biden committed for the first time to giving Seoul a greater say in strategic planning for the use of nuclear weapons in future potential conflict with North Korea in exchange for Seoul’s commitment to not pursue building its own nuclear arsenal. In public comments on Wednesday, Mr. Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol stressed their focus on “extended deterrence”. As part of the agreement, which is being referred to as the Washington Declaration, the US and South Korean will also create a Nuclear Consultative Group to coordinate potential military responses to North Korea and to develop strategic plans that can be leveraged in the event of an attack from North Korea. Mr. Biden also announced the US would send American nuclear ballistic missile submarines to visit South Korea at an undisclosed future date but emphasized that no US nuclear weapons would be stationed there. The US withdrew its last nuclear weapons from South Korea in 1991, after the end of the Cold War. The Washington Declaration is intended to provide assurance to the South Korean public, where increasing majorities have favored developing domestic nuclear weapons capabilities. Mr. Yoon called it “an unprecedented expansion and strengthening of the extended deterrence strategy”. It also edges towards reversing previous commitments to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in US defense strategy. The Cipher Brief New York Times 

Air National Guardsman Accused of Classified Intel Leak to Appear in Court. Jack Teixeira, the Air National Guardsman who was arrested by the FBI on April 13, will make an appearance in court today.  The government is expected to argue that Teixeira should remain in custody and that he is a flight risk, a risk to national security and a possible risk to society.  The move is opposed by his lawyers who say the government has failed to provide specific facts and is speculating that a “foreign adversary will seduce Mr. Teixeira and orchestrate his clandestine escape from the United States,".  Media reports say that Teixeira has a history of making violent comments online and that he attempted to destroy information related to the investigation. Reuters

'More than enough' Evidence to Remove Ecuador's President Lasso, Claims Opposition. Ecuador opposition leaders claim that there is more than enough evidence to remove President Guillermo Lasso following testimony by his lawyer before a congressional committee. The president and former banker is facing potential impeachment hearings over allegations regarding the fact that Lasso allegedly disregarded possible embezzlement related to the oil shipping contract with Flopec and other private sector companies. Lasso has denied any wrongdoing in the matter, citing the fact that the contract was signed in 2018, several years before he took office. However, opposition leaders argue that he did nothing when told about issues with the contract, which they say is grounds for removal.  Reuters

Leader of Proud Boys, Anticipating Verdict for Jan. 6th Capitol Attack, Condemns Justice Department. On Tuesday, Enrique Tarrio, the former leader of the Proud Boys who is awaiting a verdict on seditious conspiracy charges, accused the Justice Department and Democrats of “weaponizing government institutions” and seeking to “manipulate the 2024 election”. In a phone call with supporters and journalists from a jail in Alexandria, VA, Tarrio avoided discussing specifics of his four-month trial, in which he opted against taking the stand to testify, and instead used the opportunity to embrace far-right critiques of the Justice Department’s prosecution of Jan. 6 perpetrators, accusing them of “overcharging” defendants and “criminalizing free speech”. Prosecutors have charged Tarrio and four allies as being the “tip of the spear” of the mob that overran the Capitol on Jan 6, 2021. Although Tarrio wasn’t physically present on Jan 6, prosecutors say that he stayed in contact with other Proud Boy leaders from a nearby hotel and later celebrated their role in the attack. Tarrio also used the call to praise congressional Republicans, including House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan, for pursuing investigations into the purported “weaponization” of government institutions. Jury deliberations in Tarrio’s trial began on Wednesday morning. Politico NPR

U.S. Denies Visa for Sri Lankan Governor Over Human Rights Violations, War Killings of Teenagers. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced on Wednesday that the United States will not issue visas to Sri Lankan provincial governor and former navy chief Wasantha Karannagoda, and several others on grounds of human rights abuses. A Sri Lankan investigation found Karannagoda and others to be responsible for the abduction and murder of teenagers from wealthy families in order to extort the families for money. Sri Lankan authorities dropped the charges in 2021, resulting in an outcry from international groups. After that, Karannagoda was soon appointed governor. Neither Karannagoda nor his wife would be allowed into the United States according to the announcement from the State Department.  Al Jazeera 

Elon Musk and S.K. President Yoon Meet in Washington, Discuss Investment and Tesla Gigafactory. During his visit to Washington, DC, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol met with Tesla CEO Elon Musk to discuss Tesla investment in South Korea, according to a report from the South Korean news agency Yonhap. According to the report, the two met on Wednesday per Musk’s request. Yoon reportedly discussed South Korea as being the perfect country for Tesla to build a gigafactory, according to the news report. He also discussed providing tax benefits and other support. Musk reportedly told Yoon that South Korea is a front running candidate for where Tesla may build a gigafactory, and that he plans to visit the country soon.  Al Jazeera Bloomberg South China Morning Post 

Cuba Increasingly Importing Oil from Russia and Mexico to Supplement Diminishing Venezuelan Supply. Cuba has begun to increasingly resort to Mexico and Russia for oil as Venezuela's oil supply diminishes, according to shipping data. Venezuela has been Cuba’s main source of oil for more than two decades, but the country has struggled to produce enough oil for its own needs in recent years, leaving Cuba and other countries that receive their oil from Venezuela to find alternative sources. Shipping data shows that Cuba has received at least 5 shipments from Russia since November, and that Mexico has also sent a growing amount of oil to the country, with state owned oil firm Pemex discharging twice at an oil refinery in Havana in April.  Reuters 

Instead of Dollars, Argentina Will Pay for Chinese Imports in Yuan.  Yesterday Buenos Aires announced they will pay for Chinese imports in Yuan rather than dollars, to relieve their shrinking dollar reserves. The nation’s historic drought significantly reduced their agricultural exports, which caused the decline of dollar reserves. With an uncertain election ahead, Argentina aimed to strengthen their international reserves by expanding a currency swap with China by $5 billion. Trading in yuan could possibly speed up Argentinian imports since yuan-denominated import orders are authorized in 90 days rather than the standard 180 days.   Reuters 

US Planning Nuclear Submarine Visit.  In response to North Korea’s growing arsenal, President Biden announced US nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines will visit South Korea to demonstrate Washington’s commitment to Seoul. These submarines, which rely heavily on stealth, rarely make public stops and will be a strong symbol and threat to North Korea. During the South Korean President’s visit, the US also announced plans to share more strategic arms with South Korea including aircraft carriers, submarines, and long-range bombers to deter North Korea.  Reuters

Western Europe

German, British Jets Intercept Three Russian Planes in International Airspace over Baltic Sea. The German Armed Forces announced on Twitter Wednesday that British and German fighter jets intercepted three Russian aircrafts over the Baltic Sea in international airspace. According to the tweet, the two Su-27 aircrafts and one Il-20 were flying “without a transponder signal.” Baltic NATO countries Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania do not have their own fighter jets, so NATO has been primarily responsible for monitoring this airspace. The German Air Force handed over command of the monitoring mission to the UK at the beginning of April, but Germany will continue to support it till the end of the month.  CNN

Central & Eastern Europe

Russian Missiles Hit Southern Ukrainian City of Mykolaiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday that an overnight Russian missile attack on the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv killed at least one person and injured 23 others, including children. In a Telegram post, Zelensky said that four Kalibr missiles were aimed at private houses, a historic building, and a high-rise building; the Washington Post could not independently verify the claim. Washington Post

Ukraine Fights to Resist Russian Forces in Bakhmut. Heavy fighting continued in the western districts of Bakhmut on Wednesday, where Ukrainian forces continued to try to resist Russia’s invasion forces. Holding the town has become increasingly difficult for Ukraine as Russian forces have gained ground in surrounding areas, leaving Ukraine with a single functioning supply road to the town. Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Wednesday that a Russian offensive in Ukraine was inevitable, and predicted it would begin in early May after the ground dries up from recent rain. Wall Street Journal

Kremlin Cautions More Seizures of Western Assets after Taking Control of Fortum and Uniper. Yesterday, after temporarily taking control of the assets of two European state-owned utilities, the Kremlin threatened to seize more western assets in response to moves against Russian companies. Russia is aggravated by reports that the Group of Seven is considering a near complete ban on Russian assets and using the opportunity to rebuild Ukraine. Putin’s economic retaliation plan will freeze the owner’s management powers but will not “deal with property issues” or “deprive the owners of their assets.” Reuters

Ukraine Accuses Russia of Obstructing Ports, Russian Diplomat Says “No Progress” on Grain Deal. Set to expire next month, Russian envoys report there has been no real progress on the Black Sea grain deal. Moscow insists the deal will not be renewed unless Western countries lift obstacles to Russian grain and fertilizer exports. Meanwhile Ukraine accused Russia of obstructing four of its ships from leaving their Black Sea ports. Reuters

Fire at Russian Cultural Centre in Cyprus: Moscow Blames 'Terrorists,’ Local Police See no Evidence of Foul Play. A fire at the Russian cultural center in Nicosia, Cyprus on Wednesday is being labeled a “terrorist attack” by the Kremlin. According to Cyprus officials, the cause of the fire is currently under investigation, and so far, there is no indication that the fire was caused by a device thrown at the building. The center, which supposedly has strong links to the Russian embassy, is currently undergoing renovations, but the head of Russia’s cultural promotion agency Yevgeny Primakov alleges that foul play was clearly involved.  Reuters

Russia Appoints Army Commander as Peacekeeping Head Amid Rising Tensions Between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia announced on Wednesday the appointment of one of the most senior army commanders, Colonel-General Alexander Lentsov, to lead a peacekeeping mission in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, as tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan rise. Lentsov is replacing Major-General Andrei Volkov, no reasons were given for the replacement. The region is disputed between the two countries, as it is internationally recognized as Azerbaijan territory, but most of the population is ethnic Armenians. Russian peacekeepers were deployed to the area back in 2020 as well.  Reuters

Russian MiG-31 Fighter Jet Crashes in Uninhabited Area of Murmansk. A Russian fighter jet crashed into the northern region of Murmansk according to a report from the state news agency TASS. The MiG-31 fighter jet crashed into an uninhabited area, and both pilots safely ejected according to the report, which cited the Russian defense ministry. No details were provided on what caused the crash.  Reuters 

Asia

Chinese Police Question Bain & Company's Shanghai office, Confiscate Computers. A spokesperson for the US management consultancy company Bain & Company confirmed on Wednesday that Chinese authorities are investigating the company’s Shanghai office but did not provide additional details. According to the spokesperson, the company is complying with Chinese authorities. According to the reports, authorities did confiscate computers and phones, but have not detained any employees. It is unclear if the investigation is related to the firm or clients.  Reuters BBC Al Jazeera  

Analysis - China’s Expanded Espionage Law Expands Power to Control Foreign Threats.  Moves by Beijing to expand its espionage laws, especially around digital technologies are increasing concern among some that risks to foreign companies, and individuals who work for them, are rising.  China expanded its espionage laws recently, and some analysts say that the move, which could be tied to China’s efforts to harden its economy against potential conflict with the U.S., could dampen efforts by Beijing to attract foreign capital to China.  There are also concerts that conducting normal business activities, such as gathering business intelligence on local markets, something that is normal for most companies, could fall under the definition of espionage, given the expanded laws.   Wall Street Journal Reuters 

China to Send Envoy to Ukraine and Other Nations. During a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Xi told Zelenskyy that China would send a peace envoy to Ukraine and other nations. The government statement was reported on by state media. According to the statement, China will send the envoy to assist in communication with all parties involved in the conflict. There were no comments on whether the envoy would visit Russia.  Associated Press Washington Post 

Middle East & North Africa

Iranian Shia Cleric and Former Representative of Leader Khamenei Assassinated in Bank. Abbasali Soleimani, a former representative for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and member of the Assembly of Experts, was assassinated at a bank in the city of Babolsar. According to Fars news agency, the cleric died in the hospital, and that a suspect has been detained.  Reuters BBC 

At Least 55 Dead After Boat Sinks off Libyan Coast. On Wednesday, the United Nations International Organization for Migration (IOM) said that at least 55 people drowned after their boat sank off the coast of Libya, leaving only 5 survivors who were returned to Libya by the Libyan coast guard. The rubber boat was carrying 60 people and left Tuesday morning from the small town of Garabouli. The sinking is the latest in a recent series of deadly accidents all involving migrants trying to flee to Europe by crossing the Mediterranean. 661 people have died in the central Mediterranean this year, including people who went “missing” but after some hours are considered dead. An IOM spokesperson called the situation in Libya “extremely concerning” and said that migrants in the country are subject to horrors ranging from kidnapping to exploitation by criminal groups and trafficking networks. New York Times

Intelligence Leak Suggests Chinese Military Resumed Site Construction in UAE. According to leaked top secret intelligence documents obtained by the Washington Post, the U.S. intelligence community detected construction at a suspected Chinese military facility in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in December 2022, one year after Abu Dhabi had told Washington that it was halting the project at Khalifa Port because of U.S. concerns. That port lies about 50 miles from one of the biggest U.S. bases in the Middle East, Al Dhafra Air Base. Despite being a longtime U.S. security partner, the Emiratis are developing closer ties to China at the expense of U.S. interests, according to the documents and related interviews with senior Biden administration officials. One of the leaked documents judged that Beijing’s efforts in UAE are part of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) “Project 141” plan to build a global military network by 2030 that includes at least five overseas bases and 10 logistical support sites. Experts assess that China’s expanding foothold in the world’s ports, particularly those near known U.S. military bases and operations, facilitates its intelligence-gathering on U.S. military movements and activities in those areas due in part to a 2017 Chinese law that obliges Chinese commercial companies to share information with the military if called upon to do so. A UAE representative declined to answer questions about the leaked intelligence documents, and a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington said U.S. concerns about China’s military facilities abroad are misplaced. Washington Post

Sub Saharan Africa

Sudanese Inmates Released, Leaving Unanswered Question of Bashir’s Whereabouts. Reports emerged earlier this week of a prison break at Sudan’s infamous Kobar prison, which normally holds dangerous criminals as well as former political officials charged with a variety of crimes, including former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir. Bashir is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity, and in Sudan still faces charges related to the 1989 coup that brought him to power, which could yield the death penalty or life in prison if he is convicted. The prison also held Ahmed Haroun, who was indicted by the ICC in 2007 for his alleged role in atrocities in Darfur. Haroun faces 20 counts of crimes against humanity and 22 counts of war crimes, including charges for murder, rape, persecution, and torture. Haroun claimed in an audio clip that the prison break was aided by the armed forces and prison guards. However, Sudan’s interior ministry has accused the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of breaking into five prisons in the last few days, including Kobar, and said that they released 20,000 prisoners who were being held in those jails. The RSF denied the allegations and accused the military of “forcibly evacuating” Kobar as part of a plan to restore Bashir to power, which the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) denies. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of Bashir’s whereabouts continues; on Wednesday, the SAF said that Bashir and four other top former officials were being held at a military hospital and that they had been there for health reasons for almost two weeks before the conflict erupted but did not provide evidence or photographs of Bashir. BBC Reuters New York Times

Sudan: 72-Hour Ceasefire on Verge of Expiration, Air Strikes Increasing. As the US-brokered 72-hour ceasefire nears its end, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) continue to pound paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) positions in Khartoum with air raids, and fighting has once again flared in Darfur. The conflict has killed at least 512 people and wounded more than 4000 in the last 12 days, according to Sudan’s health ministry, and reduced some districts of greater Khartoum to ruins. Fighters on the ground in the capital are reportedly exchanging artillery and small-arms fire. Still, SAF leader Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan indicated he would be willing to extend the ceasefire for another 72 hours, and sent an envoy to the South Sudan capital, Juba, for talks. The RSF has reportedly not yet agreed to the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) proposal to extend the ceasefire for 72 additional hours. Al Jazeera

Foreigners Struggle to Escape Sudan After Governments Evacuate. Despite formal government evacuations from the U.S. and others for diplomats and their families, tens of thousands of other foreign nationals remain behind in Sudan, where fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues. There has been no announced formal plan to evacuate the estimated 16,000 American citizens in Sudan, many of whom are dual nationals. In contrast, other Western countries like France, the UK, and Germany have sent some airplanes to help evacuate their citizens and other foreign nationals, and other countries, such as India and Saudi Arabia, have organized naval convoys to Port Sudan on the Red Sea. Americans trapped in Khartoum have reported a lack of guidelines or instructions to enable their passage, or pickup points for evacuation efforts. The U.S. State Department said it remains dedicated to helping Americans in the country and has been in communication with private U.S. citizens, U.S.-affiliated businesses, nongovernmental organizations, and implementing partners about safety measures and other precautions they can take. The State Department also continues to advise Americans to shelter in place. Many streets are too dangerous to drive along, and vehicles have been shot up in the fighting. Fuel is also difficult to find. More than 500 people, including at least two Americans, have been killed in the conflict so far. Associated Press Washington Post 

Gunmen Abduct 29 in Greater Abuja Area. At least 29 people were abducted by gunmen in Nigeria’s federal capital territory of Abuja, a local government official told the Associated Press on Wednesday. The gunmen rounded up residents in Yewuti village, according to an aide to the chairman of the Kwali local council. The local Daily Trust newspaper said children were among those abducted, and that some of the hostages had managed to escape. Police are searching for the assailants around Kwali, which is about 100 kilometers from Abuja’s city center. Until recently, the capital territory had been largely spared by the abductions and killings by several armed groups that have challenged northern Nigeria; however, the city has witnessed frequent attacks since 2022, including one in July when suspected jihadis freed hundreds of inmates from a maximum-security prison. Associated Press 

Cyber & Tech

National Cybersecurity Chief Says Strategy To Be Implemented in Stages. According to Acting National Cybersecurity Director Kemba Walden, an implementation plan for the administration’s recently released cybersecurity strategy will be released soon.  Walden noted that the roles and responsibilities that have been defined over the last several months will determine “who's accountable for what…in the policy making process.”  Walden described the rollout of the strategy to be “dynamic and iterative” with continuous updating as tasks are completed.  Commenting on Congressional reaction to the strategy, former Rep. John Katko, who was the ranking member of the House Homeland Security Committee, said “I do think cyber is somewhat immune to [politicking], but not 100%. So that’s why legislation may suffer” in comparison with Federal agency actions.  TheRecord Wall Street Journal

European Research Team Hacks, Takes Control of European Space Agency Satellite. At the CYSAT conference in Paris this week, a research team from the European Space Agency (ESA) and the French defense firm Thales plan to demonstrate their success in hacking into and taking control of an ESA satellite.  The team conducted the operation against ESA’s OPS-SAT, a nanosatellite about the size of a shoebox.  It was launched in 2019 and contains a powerful experimental computer.  According to a Thales spokesperson, the exercise successfully hijacked a number of systems used in the satellite’s operations.  According to Thales, “this made it possible to compromise the data sent back to Earth, in particular by modifying the images captured by the satellite's camera.”  TheRecord

Facebook, Twitter Among Platforms Facing New EU Content Rules in August. The big three social media platforms – Twitter, Facebook, and TikTok – will be subject to stringent EU content rules as of August 25.  The EU Digital Services Act will require 19 very-large-online-platforms (VLOP’s) to remove illegal content quickly, protect minors against targeted advertising, and police harmful content and disinformation.  Among other restrictions, the VLOP’s will be responsible for labeling AI-generated content such as doctored videos and photos.  EU enforcement teams will monitor platform data and algorithms to detect harmful content, especially that which threatens public health or elections.  Politico Wall Street Journal The Guardian

National Intelligence Director Urges Action To Meet Emerging Tech Threats. China, Russia, and Iran are in the vanguard of authoritarian states exploiting advanced technologies to repress dissent and undermine democracy.  Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told a Carnegie Endowment conference that the U.S. and its allies need to move “with urgency” to confront dictatorial regimes as they “grow more sophisticated in their use of existing repressive technologies” such as generative AI and biometric surveillance. Haines said rapidly developing AI-enabled tools are “making it easier (for the Intelligence Community) to be surprised by significant developments.”  DefenseScoop

Federal Watchdogs Vow Scrutiny of Bias in AI-Enabled Technologies. Multiple Federal agencies have announced a plan to combat bias in the new wave of AI-enabled tools that will dominate public communications in the near future.  The agencies intend to use current civil rights laws to counter discrimination in the application of technologies like generative AI.  Federal watchdogs are concerned in particular about the potential for “digital redlining” as AI tools are used to assist decision-making on credit, housing, and hiring.  In light of this, the chair of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission called AI’s rapid deployment a “new civil rights frontier.”  An FTC commissioner raised a similar concern and warning in noting that “AI is being used right now to decide who to hire, who to fire, who gets a loan, who stays in the hospital and who gets sent home.”  Washington Post Wall Street Journal

Ukraine Announces New Defense Tech Hub To Bolster Innovation. Ukraine’s digital transformation minister has announced the creation of a technology hub to coordinate development of war fighting technologies among military, government, and private sector organizations.  Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov underscored the need for a Ukrainian domestic capability, noting “we must not be dependent on the free will of our partners.  We must invest resources into our independence so that we can defend ourselves on our own.”  Continued evolution of tested battlefield technologies is of particular interest, including autonomous ground vehicles, landmine-identifying robots, and unmanned aerial systems.  Associated Press

China Unveils Construction Road Map for Lunar Research Station. China has released building plans for the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), with initial missions focused on exploring the moon’s environment and resources.  The ILRS will be constructed in three stages with completion in 2050.  In later stages of the project, large-scale nuclear power stations will be established to support experiments and research in physics and life sciences.  The Chinese National Space Administration has signed cooperation agreements or letters of intent with a number of countries, including Russia, Argentina, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, Brazil and the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization.  South China Morning Post

SpaceX Launches World's First 5G Satellite To Bring Global Connectivity. SpaceX has launched the first in a constellation of 250 satellites designed to bring about global access to the Internet of Things (IoT).  The “Groundbreaker,” the first satellite in low-earth orbit to operate on the 5G  cellular standard, will communicate with terrestrial cell towers and fill gaps in data networks worldwide.  The goals for the satellite constellation are to create a network between ground and orbital cellular relays linked to the IoT.  According to the satellite telecommunications operator, Sateliot, users will be able to seamlessly switch between terrestrial and non-terrestrial 5G networks, thereby easing the way “to a massive Internet of Things adoption worldwide.” Gizmodo Space TimesNow

NIST Releases Draft Post-Quantum Encryption Document. A new draft document released by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) previews the institute’s current post-quantum cryptography guidance and asks for public comment.  Continuing releases of NIST guidance will help organizations locate where and how public key algorithms fit into encryption schemes and will outline steps to migrate these algorithms to quantum-resilient substitutes.  Advice for performing interoperability and performance testing also will be covered.  The document emphasizes understanding the security architecture in organizational networks so that it is clear where and with what priority post-quantum security measures will need to be implemented.  NextGov NIST

DARPA Schedules ‘Proposers Day’ for Planned Quantum Augmented Network. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) will host a “proposers’ day” on May 11 to review agency plans for its Quantum Augmented Network program.  DARPA says the aims of the program, known as QuANET, are to “blend existing ‘best-of’ quantum communications capabilities into networks operating today in military and critical infrastructure.”  DARPA officials will discuss QuANET’s technical goals and challenges as well as proposal requirements that will support the overarching program.  DefenseScoop