Report for Thursday, April 25, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Hamas releases video of Israeli-American hostage, says it will turn into political party if Palestinian state created

U.S. quietly sent long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine

Biden signs foreign aid package, TikTok ban bill

NATO launches largest cyber defense exercise in Estonia

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE REPORTING – The Long Arm of China’s Security Services.

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israeli-American hostage Goldberg-Polin appears in Hamas-produced video. Hamas produced and released a video on Wednesday that shows 23-year-old Hersh Goldberg-Polin, an Israeli-American kidnapped at the Nova music festival on Oct. 7.  In the short, undated video, Goldberg-Polin appears to be missing one hand and lower arm but apparently healthy otherwise.  He says he was injured during the Oct. 7 attack "after I tried using my body as a shield to protect myself and other fearful civilians."  His mother Rachel Goldberg-Polin has been campaigning for the release of her son and other hostages. "Seeing a video of Hersh today is overwhelming,” his father Jonathan Polin said in a video message. “We're relieved to see him alive but we're also concerned about his health and wellbeing as well as that of all of the other hostages and all of those suffering in this region.  We're here today with a plea to all of the leaders of the parties who have been negotiating to date.  That includes Qatar, Egypt, the United States, Hamas and Israel.  Be brave, lean in, seize this moment and get a deal done."  About 133 of the 250 hostages taken by Hamas gunmen are believed to still be held by the militant group, but an unknown number may have died in captivity.   Reuters Associated Press Wall Street Journal

Hamas official says group would transform into political party if an independent Palestinian state is created.  Khalil al-Hayya, a top Hamas political official who has represented the group in negotiations for a cease-fire and hostage exchange, told the Associated Press that the militant group would lay down its weapons and convert into a political party if an independent Palestinian state is established along pre-1967 borders.  Al-Hayya said Hamas wants to join the Palestine Liberation Organization, headed by the rival Fatah faction, to form a unified government for Gaza and the West Bank.  He said Hamas would accept “a fully sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and the return of Palestinian refugees in accordance with the international resolutions,” along Israel’s pre-1967 borders.  If this happened, the group’s military wing would dissolve. “All the experiences of people who fought against occupiers, when they became independent and obtained their rights and their state, what have these forces done? They have turned into political parties and their defending fighting forces have turned into the national army,” he said.  His comments, in an interview Wednesday in Istanbul, seem a significant concession, but Israel has still vowed to destroy Hamas.  The Netanyahu government opposes the creation of a Palestinian state and a two-state solution to the long-running conflict.  Associated Press

Israel ready to move into Rafah.  Israel's military is poised to evacuate Palestinian civilians from Rafah and assault Hamas hold-outs, a senior Israeli defense official said Wednesday.  He confirmed that Israel's Defense Ministry had bought 40,000 tents, each with the capacity for 10 to 12 people, to house Palestinian civilians displaced from Rafah in advance of an assault.  A spokesperson for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government said Israel was "moving ahead" with plans for a ground operation on Rafah but gave no timeline.  U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Washington was still talking with Israel about Rafah.  Officials from the U.S. and Israel are expected to meet again in person soon.  Reuters Reuters

Israel claims it has killed half Hezbollah’s commanders in southern Lebanon.  “Half of the Hezbollah commanders in south Lebanon have been eliminated… and the other half hide and abandon south Lebanon to IDF operations,” Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant said Wednesday, as the Israel Defense Forces was carrying out a large wave of strikes against dozens of Hezbollah sites.  The Israeli military said artillery and fighter jet strikes hit around 40 targets in southern Lebanon Wednesday.  It said the strikes, about 1.6 miles inside the Lebanese border, hit storage facilities and weapons.  "There is continuous offensive action by IDF forces in all of southern Lebanon as well as in other parts of Lebanon. The operational results are very impressive," Gallant said.  He said Israel’s main goal in the north was to allow tens of thousands of Israelis displaced by Hezbollah’s daily attacks to return to their homes.  A Hezbollah official dismissed Gallant’s claim of Israel killing half the Hezbollah command as "completely worthless" and aimed only at raising Israeli morale, noting that the group regularly publishes pictures and biographical details of fighters killed in the fighting.  Times of Israel Reuters

U.S. expected to name former UN official as new special envoy for Palestinian aid.  Former senior United Nations official Lise Grande, now head of the independent U.S. Institute of Peace, is reported to be in line for the post of U.S. special envoy for Middle East humanitarian issues. Career State Department official David Satterfield is stepping down after being in the position for the past six months.  The post focuses on the U.S. response to the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip.  Grande worked for the United Nations for more than 25 years and headed aid operations in Yemen, Iraq and South Sudan.  Reuters

Germany to resume funding UN Palestinian aid agency.  Germany said Wednesday that it plans to resume cooperation with UNRWA, the U.N. relief agency for Palestinians in Gaza.  Germany, the U.S. and 14 other nations suspended some $450 million in support for the agency after Israel allegefd that hundreds of UNRWA workers were members of Palestinian militant groups. Last Monday, an independent review commissioned by the UN concluded that Israel hadn’t come up with evidence to support its allegation of bias. The Israeli Foreign Ministry called Germany’s decision “regrettable and disappointing” and claimed the independent report understated the problem.  Reuters Associated Press

Israeli security forces using wartime tactics in West Bank.  Israel is deploying wartime tactics against militants in West Bank refugee camps, home to hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians. The Israeli military regards the camps as breeding grounds for extremists.  Since the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks, Israel has used airstrikes, ground incursions and looser rules of engagement to hunt down people suspected of plotting violence, setting up a second battlefront, in practice.  Wall Street Journal

U.S. State Dept warns Israel that legalizing West Bank settlements would be 'dangerous and reckless.'  The U.S. State Department moved quickly Wednesday to head off a move by Israel's Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to legalize 68 illegal settlements in the West Bank. “These reports about directives to support illegal outposts in the West Bank, we believe that to be dangerous and reckless," State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel said.  He added that the U.S. takes the position that the settlements violate international law and "will continue to urge Israeli officials to refrain from taking actions to fund outposts that have long been illegal under Israeli law.”  Reuters 

Former State Dept official says U.S. overlooks some human rights abuses by Israel.  Charles O. Blaha, formerly director of a State Department security and human rights office that ensured that foreign militaries receiving American military aid follow U.S. and international human rights laws, said Wednesday that he repeatedly saw Israel receiving “special treatment” from U.S. officials.  He became the second senior State official to charge that the U.S. is reluctant to enforce human rights laws in Israel's case.  State Department deputy spokesman Vedant Patel responded, “What I can say unequivocally is that we apply the principles and guidelines that are outlined in clear legislation when it comes to the security relationships we have with countries around the world, including Israel, consistently…When it comes to the appropriate use of American security assistance we also apply the principles and guidelines as it relates to those consistently with countries across the board.”  Also Wednesday, Turkey said Washington's annual rights report failed to address Israel's assaults in Gaza.  Turkey's foreign ministry said in a statement it was deeply concerned that the U.S. report did not "duly reflect the ongoing inhumane attacks in Gaza."   Associated Press Just Security Reuters  

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

The U.S. quietly shipped long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine.  The U.S. secretly delivered long-range missiles to Ukraine as part of a $300 million military aid package approved by President Joe Biden on March 12. The ATACMS missiles, capable of striking targets 190 miles away, were used against Russian forces, including in an April 17 attack on a Russian airfield in Crimea and a separate strike on Russian troops in southeast Ukraine.  The White House confirmed that many ATACMS have been sent and more will follow, with Ukraine agreeing to use them only on targets outside of Russia.  The decision to send these missiles followed an intense debate within the Biden administration, driven by Pentagon concerns over U.S. military readiness and fears that Ukraine would use them for strikes deep inside Russia. These concerns were eventually outweighed by Russia's attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and its reported use of North Korean missiles.  The funding for ATACMS became possible when Pentagon contracts were underbid, allowing Biden to allocate the saved funds for this purpose. Reuters New York Times Associated Press Wall Street Journal Kyiv Independent Al Jazeera 

Zelensky says Ukraine ‘will do everything’ to compensate for U.S. aid delay.’  President Volodymyr Zelensky said during his Wednesday evening address that Ukraine "will do everything" to compensate for the six months that passed while waiting for the U.S. to pass its $61 billion aid package for Kyiv.  Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “actions at the front, all his attacks on our energy sector and infrastructure, all his terror against our cities and villages – all this should mobilize us, everyone in the world who really values life, to put more pressure on Russia,” Zelensky said.  He thanked the U.S. Senate and key leaders for advancing the aid package, particularly Senator Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky).  He also highlighted support from President Joe Biden.  “This vote reinforces America’s role as a beacon of democracy and the leader of the free world,” Zelensky wrote in a post on X.  “I am also grateful to all Americans who continue to support Ukraine and recognize that the historical significance of this bill extends beyond politics.”  The Hill 

ANALYSIS – U.S. aid will help Ukraine avoid defeat. Winning is another matter.  The $61 billion U.S. aid package should be enough to keep Ukraine in the fight against Russia for the rest of 2024.  However, Ukrainian victory – recapturing the 20% of the nation’s territory now under Russian control –  is still an elusive prospect.  “Ultimately, it offers Ukraine the prospect of staying in the war this year,” said Michael Clarke, a visiting professor of war studies at King’s College London.  “Sometimes in warfare, you’ve just got to stay in it. You’ve just got to avoid being rolled over.”  The U.S. funding “can probably only help stabilize the Ukrainian position for this year and begin preparations for operations in 2025,” said Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank.  In the best-case scenario, the American aid will give Ukrainian commanders time to reorganize and train their army, applying lessons learned from the failed summer 2023 offensive. It may also galvanize Ukraine’s allies in Europe to increase aid.  Associated Press

Zelensky warns Russia is planning to disrupt the global peace summit in Switzerland. President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday that Russia plans to disrupt a June global peace summit in Switzerland. The participants are expected to discuss Kyiv's 10-point peace formula and create a joint document on the steps that must be taken to restore Ukraine's sovereignty.  The summit will exclude Russia. However, Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis said it would eventually be necessary to have Moscow involved in peace talks.  Kyiv Independent

Ukraine issues restrictions on passports for military-age men, Poland stands ready to help. Poland is prepared to assist Ukraine in encouraging military-age men to return and contribute to the war effort against Russia.  Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz expressed support for measures restricting passport renewals for these men abroad, compelling them to return to Ukraine. "I think many Poles are outraged when they see young Ukrainian men in hotels and cafes, and they hear how much effort we have to make to help Ukraine," he said, without giving any details on how Poland will help. The Ukrainian government announced rules on Wednesday under which passports for military-age men can be issued only inside the country instead of foreign diplomatic missions. As a result, men aged between 18 and 60 living abroad cannot renew expiring passports or obtain new ones. Some 4.3 million Ukrainians are living in European Union countries as of January 2024, of whom about 860,000 are adult men, the Eurostat database estimates. Poland has granted temporary protection status to 950,000 Ukrainians, the second-largest number after Germany.  Reuters Reuters Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent

U.K. defense chief says Ukraine to increase long-range strikes in Russia.  According to the U.K.'s military chief, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Ukraine plans to intensify long-range strikes inside Russia, bolstered by increased Western military aid.  Radakin also highlighted Western support, including high-tech weapons, and Moscow’s failure to stop Ukraine’s grain exports via the Black Sea are shaping the war favorably for Kyiv.  The U.K. plans to raise its defense spending and has committed long-term military support to Ukraine.  Radakin said the U.K. has finally begun long-term supply contracts that allow the U.K.’s defense ministry to dig into its own stockpiles and hand over more capabilities to Kyiv — including more than 1,600 strike and air defense missiles, as well as another tranche of long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles.  He said the West has a plan for Ukraine’s victory, but not all elements could be spelled out publicly. Some of these factors “mature much more strongly next year than this year,” Radakin said.  Financial Times Kyiv Independent

Latvian defense minister: Drone coalition raises over $535 million for Ukraine.  A coalition led by the U.K. and Latvia has raised over 500 million euros to supply Ukraine with drones and enhance its UAV capabilities, according to Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds. This initiative now includes contributions from seven other countries, notably Denmark and the Netherlands, who jointly pledged 400 million euros.  Significant contributions have also come from Canada and Lithuania, among others.  Kyiv Independent

Ukraine and Portugal start talks on a security agreement.  Ukraine and Portugal have started negotiations on a draft bilateral security agreement, with discussions also covering a June peace summit in Switzerland and Ukraine's peace plan.  Several countries have signed such bilateral agreements with Kyiv.  These agreements are part of a G7 plan providing long-term security commitments to help Ukraine counter Russian aggression and ensure post-war recovery. Kyiv Independent

Ukrainian air strikes destroyed Russian oil depots.  Ukrainian drones attacked two fuel depots in Russia's Smolensk region early Wednesday, destroying 26,000 cubic meters of fuel despite U.S. warnings that such strikes could destabilize global markets. "The SBU [Security Service of Ukraine] continues to effectively destroy the military infrastructure and logistics that provide fuel to the Russian army in Ukraine. These objects are and will remain our legitimate targets," a Ukrainian official told Politico on condition of anonymity.  The targets were part of Rosneft's infrastructure.  Since the start of 2024, Ukrainian media has counted 13 attacks on oil refineries in nine regions of Russia.  "We have already reduced both oil production and processing in Russia by 12%.,” the head of Ukraine's security services, Vasyl Malyuk, told Ukrainian media in March. The Russian government on March 1 imposed a six-month ban on fuel exports amid the attacks. Politico

The Americas

Biden signs Ukraine aid, TikTok ban package. President Joe Biden signed the $95 billion foreign aid package on Wednesday, remarking: “It's a good day for America, it's a good day for Europe, and it's a good day for world peace.”  Biden also acknowledged the difficult path the legislation took to reach his desk, saying “it should have been easier, and it should have gotten there sooner,” but ultimately, America “rose to the moment, came together and we got it done.”  Biden also called out those who sought to block the aid, noting that while Ukraine was running out of artillery shells and ammunition, “Putin's friends are keeping him well supplied,” referring to Iran, North Korea, and China's assistance to Russia in ramping up air strikes.  Biden also noted that the package included “vital” support for Israel, reaffirming his “ironclad” commitment to the country.

The package also included a bill which could lead to a ban on TikTok.  Biden also signed this measure into law, which will ban TikTok in 270 days, extendable by another 90 days, if it is not sold by China’s ByteDance.  The legislation is set to face legal challenges, with TikTok planning a legal challenge to block the law on the grounds that it is “unconstitutional.”  “Rest assured - we aren’t going anywhere,” TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew said.  “The facts and the Constitution are on our side and we expect to prevail again.”  Reuters The Hill Financial Times 

Trump 2.0: How U.S. allies are preparing for a possible second term.  U.S. allies worldwide are taking steps to defend or advance their interests in anticipation of former President Donald Trump's potential return to power in the November elections.  Germany, Japan, Mexico, and Australia are among the countries actively engaging with the Republican Party and Trump's inner circle to mitigate potential “America First” policies that impacted trade, security alliances, immigration, and climate agreements during Trump's previous term.  Some foreign leaders, such as Saudi Arabia's crown prince, Hungary's prime minister, and Poland's president, have directly contacted or met with Trump.  British Foreign Secretary David Cameron held talks with Trump at his Florida resort this month, discussing Ukraine, the Israel-Gaza war, and the future of NATO in what he described as a private dinner.  Reuters Politico 

Russia vetoes U.N. resolution calling against space-based nuclear weapons. On Wednesday, Russia vetoed a United Nations resolution, sponsored by the U.S. and Japan, which aimed to prevent the militarization of space.  The measure called for a ban on the development and deployment of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction into space, in alignment with the 1967 Outer Space Treaty.  The Security Council vote ended with 13 in favor, Russia opposed, and China abstaining.  Russia criticized the resolution as overly selective and incomplete for not addressing all types of weapons in space. The U.S. accused Russia of undermining global arms control and blocking agreements to prevent the weaponization of space.  U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan responded to the veto by saying that the U.S. “assesses that Russia is developing a new satellite carrying a nuclear device.”  If Russian President Vladimir Putin had no intention of deploying nuclear weapons in space, Sullivan said, “Russia would not have vetoed this resolution.”  Associated Press Reuters

US Air Force narrows list to General Atomics, Anduril to build autonomous aircraft. The U.S. Air Force said on Wednesday it had selected General Atomics and Anduril to develop autonomous aircraft as part of its Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program. These companies will design, build, and test prototypes for the new fleet, intended to accompany manned jets. This decision sidelines other major defense contractors like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman from this phase of the project. The Air Force aims for competitive production by 2026 and operational capability by the decade's end.  Reuters

Israel's Netanyahu says 'more has to be done' to stop pro-Palestinian protests on US campuses. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday called for more action against pro-Palestinian protests on U.S. college campuses, which he describes as "horrific" and dominated by "anti-Semitic mobs."  The protests, fueled by Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza, have led to tensions on campuses, with calls for ceasefires and divestment from companies linked to Israel.

Columbia University students heckled U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson as he visited the Manhattan campus to support Jewish students. Johnson’s visit took place shortly after the university extended a deadline to Friday morning to reach an agreement to remove an encampment that is a symbol of the campus protest movement.

Some of the campus protests taking place coast to coast were met with shows of force from law enforcement. In Texas, state troopers in riot gear and police on horseback broke up a protest at the University of Texas in Austin. The Texas Department of Public Safety posted on X that 34 people had been arrested. The University of Southern California declared its campus closed and asked the Los Angeles Police Department to clear a demonstration. The LAPD posted on X late on Wednesday that 93 people were arrested for trespassing and one for assault with a deadly weapon. Students also demonstrated at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, and California State Polytechnic in Humboldt. Students at Harvard University gathered to demonstrate against the suspension of the Palestine Solidarity Committee, with some flooding into Harvard Yard while cheering and putting up tents. Some 34,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli strikes on Gaza, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.  Reuters Reuters Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera Bloomberg

Haiti transition council to be installed on Thursday, says PM office.   In Haiti, a presidential transition council will be installed on Thursday in a ceremony at the Villa d'Accueil on the outskirts of Port-au-Prince, avoiding the violence-plagued National Palace.  This council aims to stabilize the nation by replacing outgoing Prime Minister Ariel Henry and organizing future elections.  The transition has been delayed by political infighting and the influence of gangs, including demands by gang leader Jimmy "Barbeque" Cherizier to be included in political discussions.  The Caribbean nation has been rocked by violence since late February when gangs launched attacks in the capital and demanded Henry's resignation. Reuters Barron's

Judge orders preventative detention for Iranian and 2 Peruvians in thwarted plot to kill Israelis. A Peruvian judge has ordered 18 months of detention for an Iranian and two Peruvians under investigation for allegedly plotting to kill two Israelis in Peru. The suspects are also accused of terrorism conspiracy. The primary suspect, Majid Azizi, is allegedly linked to Iran's Quds Force. Despite the allegations, the exact motive and Azizi's affiliation with the Quds Force remain unconfirmed. The plot was uncovered following Azizi's arrest.  Associated Press 

Asia and Oceania

Blinken raises China trade practices in Shanghai visit.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken began his trip to China on Thursday by meeting business leaders and local government officials in Shanghai.  The State Department said Blinken “raised concerns about (Chinese) trade politics and non-market economic practices” that threaten U.S. companies,” adding that the U.S. seeks healthy economic competition and “a level playing field” for U.S. firms and workers in China.  Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said in response that China has “always conducted economic and trade cooperation in accordance with market principles, firmly supported the multilateral trading system, and fully complied with the rules of the World Trade Organization.”  Blinken went on to Beijing, where he is expected to hold talks with his counterpart Foreign Minister Wang Yi and possibly President Xi Jinping.  Associated Press Reuters 

China blasts U.S. military aid for Taiwan. China strongly criticized the latest package of U.S. military assistance to Taiwan, saying that the funding is pushing the self-governing island republic into a “dangerous situation.”  The mainland's PRC Taiwan Affairs Office said that the aid “seriously violates” U.S. commitments to China and “sends a wrong signal to the Taiwan independence separatist forces.”  Office spokesperson Zhu Fenglian accused Taiwan's ruling pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, which won a third four-year presidential term in January, of being willing to “become a pawn for external forces to use Taiwan to contain China.”  Associated Press 

China should have confidence to talk to us, Taiwan's president-elect says.  Taiwan's President-elect Lai Ching-te called on China to have the confidence to engage with Taiwan's legally elected government, as he appointed his new national security and diplomacy team amid what he described as unprecedented challenges. Beijing views Lai, who won the election in January and takes office on May 20th, as a separatist.  While he has repeatedly offered to hold talks with China, Lai maintains that only Taiwan's people can decide their future.  Lai criticized Beijing for only being willing to engage with Taiwan's opposition, specifically the Kuomintang (KMT) party, whose senior leaders have made frequent visits to China in recent months, while setting “political preconditions” for talks.  Reuters

China stands by economic data, says defense spending 'transparent.'  China defended the accuracy of its economic data and said that its military spending is “transparent and reasonable” in response to comments made by the head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral John Aquilino. In March, China announced a 7.2% increase in defense spending for this year, slightly outpacing last year's increase.  Admiral Aquilino questioned the accuracy of China's official growth rates, saying that the country's economy had been battered by turmoil in the real estate sector and that the reported figures were “not real.”  He also expressed concern about China's defense spending hike, despite what he described as the country's “failing” economy.  The Chinese foreign ministry dismissed Aquilino's comments as “typical double standards,” saying that the release of China's economic data has always been open and transparent and is highly regarded.  Reuters

Australian counter terrorism force arrests seven teenagers after Sydney bishop stabbing. An Australian counter-terrorism team arrested seven teenagers in Sydney on Wednesday, linked to a 16-year-old boy charged with a religiously-motivated terror attack on Assyrian Bishop Mar Mari Emmanuel during a live-streamed church service on April 15th. Police deployed a team of over 400 personnel in the operation, taking the teens into custody because of their “unacceptable risk” to society and alleged belief in a religiously-motivated violent extremist ideology.  Authorities warn that the attack on Bishop Emmanuel could inspire further attacks or reprisals against Sydney's Muslim community.  Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera

Myanmar rebel group withdraws from key border town.  Guerrilla fighters from the main ethnic Karen fighting force battling Myanmar's military government have withdrawn from the eastern border town of Myawaddy, two weeks after forcing the army to retreat from the town. The withdrawal came after a contending armed Karen National Union (KNU) group, which has occupied the town and claimed responsibility for its security, provided assistance to army soldiers who had fled to a riverside spot there for safety. The soldiers came from the army's Infantry Battalion 275, whose base, located about 4 kilometers west of Myawaddy, was captured on April 11 by the armed wing of the KNU and allied pro-democracy forces. The fleeing soldiers reestablished themselves in an area next to one of Myawaddy's two bridges connecting it to Thailand's Mae Sot district.  Associated Press

Pakistan and Iran vow to cooperate on Afghan-based militants. Neighbors Pakistan and Iran agreed Wednesday to strengthen their counter-terrorism efforts and form a united front against Afghanistan-based militants, seen as a threat to regional and global security. This commitment was made during Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Islamabad, which also aimed to repair ties after recent cross-border strikes. Raisi met with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and other officials, including powerful army chief General Asim Munir. The nations also plan to increase cooperation on economic, security, and counter-narcotics issues and discussed advancing a stalled gas pipeline project despite concerns over U.S. sanctions. This collaboration comes amid rising militant violence in the region linked to groups based in Afghanistan. Associated Press

Europe

E.U.'s proposed sanctions on Russia to target oil tankers, ships moving North Korean equipment. The European Commission is preparing sanctions on ships delivering North Korean military equipment to Russia and tankers that violate the G7 price cap on Russian oil. The developing 14th package of E.U. sanctions against Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine targets oil tankers in the “shadow fleet” that move Russian oil outside the G7 oil price cap. The draft would add 40 companies to its list of sanctioned entities, including Russian companies procuring military equipment and third-country companies that have sold Russian electronics, semiconductors, and chips with military uses. The European Commission is discussing the proposal informally with E.U. member states before presenting it to the Council for debate.  Separately, according to satellite images seen by Reuters, China is providing moorage for U.S.-sanctioned a Russian cargo ship linked to North Korean arms transfers to Russia.  Reuters 

U.K. defense secretary urges increase in NATO defense spending target.  U.K. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps advocates raising NATO's defense spending target from 2% to 2.5% of gross domestic product, citing increased global threats. He plans to present this proposal at NATO's 75th-anniversary summit in Washington, D.C.  This initiative aligns with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's commitment to increase the UK's defense budget, aiming for 2.5% of GDP by 2030. The proposed rise represents an additional £75 billion in funding over six years. Politico Sky News

U.K. and Germany deepen defense ties, united in support for Ukraine. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz agreed to increase defense cooperation. Sunak announced these closer ties with Germany a day after announcing his plan to increase British defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, challenging other European countries to follow suit. Scholz and Sunak announced plans to develop Remote-Controlled Howitzer 155mm Wheeled Artillery Systems (RCH 155) and discuss collaboration on energy projects, including German energy investment.  Reuters

Spain's Sanchez suspends public duties to reflect on his future. Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced he will take a brief break from public duties to contemplate his political future following the initiation of a corruption investigation into his wife's business dealings. This reflection period comes ahead of a potential decision on whether to continue leading the government, which he will announce by Monday. The investigation focuses on allegations of influence peddling linked to his wife, Begona Gomez, during her tenure at a business school. Sanchez has defended his wife's innocence and criticized the opposition for their role in the situation. Reuters Al Jazeera BBC Financial Times CNN

China is‘ gravely concerned’ about EU raids on security equipment companies.  China expressed "grave concern" Thursday over European Union raids on the Dutch and Polish offices of Chinese security equipment manufacturer Nuctech, which are part of an investigation into unfair state subsidies. China's diplomatic mission criticized the EU for the unannounced inspections, arguing that they harm the trade environment and undermine foreign companies' confidence in the EU market. The European Commission described the raids as a preliminary step in investigating potential market-distorting foreign subsidies.  Al Jazeera 

Three hospitalized after masked assailants storm anti-fascist event in Sweden. In Stockholm, masked attackers disrupted an anti-fascism event held by the Left Party with self-defense spray and smoke grenades, police said on Wednesday. Three attendees were hospitalized following the assault.  Expo, an anti-racist foundation, reported the incident, which included physical attacks. Images showed injured individuals.  Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson condemned the violence, asserting it had no place in Sweden. Reuters

Middle East

IAEA raises alarm over Iran nuclear saber rattling. The U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) plans to meet with senior Iranian officials next month to discuss growing concerns that Iran could build a nuclear weapon in response to escalating tensions with Israel. IAEA monitors were alarmed by comments made by a top Iranian general on April 18th, suggesting that the Islamic Republic could revise its nuclear doctrine if Israel targets its atomic facilities, a statement widely interpreted as a warning that Iran could switch to building a warhead.  IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, speaking in an interview in Rotterdam, said that the general's remarks are a “source of concern" and that there needs to be a “respectful but very serious conversation” with Iranian officials.  Bloomberg 

Yemen blast could be new Houthi attack.  A ship near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait reported an explosion in the distance on Wednesday, potentially marking a new attack by Yemen's Houthi rebels through the crucial waterway for international trade. The explosion, reported by the British military's United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center, follows a relative lull in Houthi attacks on shipping in the region. The Houthis did not immediately claim responsibility for the blast, which occurred approximately 80 miles southeast of Djibouti in the Gulf of Aden.  Associated Press 

Africa

US pullout from Niger driven by discord over democratic transition, official says. The U.S. is set to withdraw its military forces from Niger after the country's junta, which took power last year, requested the pullout due to disagreements on democratic transition issues and Niger’s growing cooperation with Russia. This marks a shift from Niger's prior role as a strategic partner in the U.S.'s efforts against regional Islamist insurgencies. "I think they asked for our withdrawal because they were unwilling to satisfy our concerns," a U.S. official, who spoke anonymously, told Reuters. "We had concerns about the lack of movement on announcing a transition to democratic rule, and we had some concerns about the external partners that they were seeking to work with." Eight coups in West and Central Africa over four years, including in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, have driven concerns over democratic backsliding in the region. Niger’s junta told French forces to leave and turned to Russia for security. Earlier this month, Russian military trainers arrived. Despite the tensions, a top U.S. military official told the Associated Press on Wednesday that there had been no final decision on whether all U.S. troops will leave Niger and neighboring Chad. The government in Chad in recent days has also questioned its agreement with the U.S.  Reuters Associated Press

U.S. urges all armed forces in Sudan to halt North Darfur attacks. The U.S. on Wednesday urged all military groups in Sudan to halt violence in al-Fashir, North Darfur, where fighting between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) threatens civilian safety.  The U.S. State Department expressed concern over RSF offensives and reported atrocities, including village destruction and indiscriminate bombings. The conflict has broken a truce and raised fears of escalating violence and humanitarian crises, with al-Fashir remaining the last major city not under RSF control amid widespread ethnic tension and displacement. Reuters

South Africa extends troop deployment in Mozambique and Congo. South Africa will extend its military presence in Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced on Wednesday. The South African National Defense Force will continue contributing to a United Nations peacekeeping force in Congo and supporting Mozambique's government against extremism. South Africa's military deployments abroad have come under domestic scrutiny this year after two soldiers were killed and three wounded by a mortar bomb in Congo in February. South Africa's main opposition Democratic Alliance party accused Ramaphosa of sending troops into a war zone unprepared. Reuters 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Largest NATO cyber defense exercise begins in Estonia.  NATO began its largest cyber defense exercise, Locked Shields, in Tallinn, Estonia on Wednesday.  Over 4,000 participants from more than 40 countries, including Ukraine, are participating.  The exercise will include simulations to practice defense of a nation-state against complex cyberattacks.  Kyiv Independent 

France seeks new E.U. sanctions in face of election-related Russian disinformation.  The French government, joined by Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Poland, has requested E.U. sanctions to combat Russian disinformation in the run-up to the European parliamentary elections in June.  A draft proposal would authorize the E.U. to impose sanctions on individuals and organizations linked to Russian information operations.  The draft proposal notes that “the Russian regime has taken actions to undermine democracy, stability and the rule of law through a variety of hybrid instruments.”   French Minister for Europe Jean-Noël Barrot told an interviewer “not a week goes by without France being the target of coordinated and deliberate maneuvers to disrupt public debate and interfere in the campaign for the European elections.”  The Record

CISA issues urgent directive to Federal agencies to patch Cisco, CrushFTP flaws.  The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) on Wednesday issued an urgent directive to federal civilian agencies to patch vulnerabilities in Cisco and CrushFTP devices by May 1.  Cisco issued an advisory saying that vulnerabilities in its Adaptive Security Appliances (ASA) and the related Firepower Threat Defense (FTD) software suite have been exploited by state-sponsored threat actors.    A threat actor tracked by Microsoft as STORM-1849, Cisco reported, used customized tools “that demonstrated a clear focus on espionage and an in-depth knowledge of the devices that they targeted.”  The Censys cybersecurity research firm said that the number of vulnerable CrushFTP devices detected last week has remained unchanged, “suggesting that either instances are being remediated and left online, or there may not be broader action taken in response to this vulnerability yet.”  The Record

Chinese, Russian cyberespionage shifts to exploiting zero-days in edge devices.  Edge devices – firewalls, routers, and Internet-of-Things (IoT) tools — are being increasingly targeted by Chinese and Russian hackers, according to findings published by Google’s cybersecurity firm, Mandiant.  The company’s annual report said cyberespionage hackers shifted tactics significantly last year, with zero-day vulnerabilities being the most commonly exploited access points in targeted networks.  Mandiant CTO Charles Carmakal reported “a very deliberate focus by the Chinese government to start to identify zero day vulnerabilities and develop malware for edge devices.”  To the surprise of many, Carmakal said, “we see Chinese espionage operators using less and less malware today on Windows computers than ever before.”   Mandiant Consulting Vice President Jurgen Kutscher said the increased exploitation of zero day flaws “further highlights the importance of an effective threat hunt program, as well as the need for comprehensive investigations and remediation in the event of a breach.”  Mandiant reported that zero-day usage increased more than 50 percent in 2023 compared with 2022 in operation by cyberespionage groups and financially motivated threat actors.  The Record

Space Force chief says rapid Chinese space advances are ‘cause for concern.’  The “breathtakingly fast” development of China’s space capabilities is “cause for concern,” according to the commander of the U.S. Space Force.  Gen. Stephen Whiting told a media briefing that China has tripled its ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) satellites in orbit in just six years, adding that “they are rapidly developing a range of counter-space weapons to hold at risk, our space capabilities.”  Regarding the recently-announced restructuring of People’s Liberation Army cyber, aerospace, and electronic warfare components, Whiting said “they’ve made those changes to further enhance the importance of space and information warfare and cyber operations in the PLA.”  Last week the PLA Strategic Support Force (SSF) was disbanded and partially replaced by the new Information Support Force handling data operations.  Two former SSF departments  – the military aerospace and cyberspace force – will remain independent.  Whiting said that U.S. allies such as South Korea and Japan understand both the threats posed by China and the importance of space to “how we defend our nations (and) enable this modern way of life that we’ve become used to.”  South China Morning Post

Task force report says ransomware payments exceeded $1 billion in 2023.  The Ransomware Task Force (RTF) on Wednesday released a new report indicating that ransom payments exceeded $1 billion for the first time in 2023.  The RTF report was sponsored by the Institute for Security and Technology (IST), which made recommendations in a 2021 RTF study but concluded that only 24 of the 48 proposals it made have seen significant action.  The IST advocates a “doubling down” on efforts to implement the remaining recommendations, with a focus on those requiring U.S. legislative action.  The RTF report acknowledges the counter-ransomware measures put in place by government action, but concludes “the United States is not using them to their full extent.”  The report highlights a 37 percent increase in ransomware attacks on critical infrastructure, citing FBI statistics for 2022-2023.  Ransomware payments increased about 18 percent during that period for more than $1 billion in crypto outlays.  Cybernews

Hackers test new ransomware tools in developing world before broader use.  Cyber threat actors are using developing countries as testbeds for new ransomware applications before deploying them to countries with more advanced cybersecurity defenses.  The Performanta cybersecurity firm notes in a new report that the latest hacker strategy is to infiltrate systems in the developing world “where they can test their malicious programs before the more resourceful countries are targeted.”   Ransomware gangs, according to the report, have conducted “dry runs” of their tools in Senegal, Chile, Colombia, and Argentina.  The Medusa ransomware gang, noted for exfiltrating and encrypting company data, began cyberattacks in South Africa, Senegal and Tonga in 2023.  Medusa and other groups have also sold their tools to less sophisticated hackers to employ against easier targets.  Performanta cyber analyst Brendan Kotze said digital growth in Africa outpaces robust cybersecurity defenses as well as awareness of cyber threats.  These factors, Kotze said, “create a worrying, widening gap in defenses which cyber criminals are exploiting.”  Financial Times

Leading South Korean chipmaker investing $4 billion in domestic DRAM facility.  SK Hynix, the South Korean manufacturer of memory chips, has announced plans to invest almost $4 billion in a new domestic facility for dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chip production.  Construction of the chip factory, dubbed M15X, is expected to begin this month with mass production planned by November 2025.  SK Hynix plans investments of over $14 billion for manufacturing equipment and production capacity over the longer term.   The company said its new production base is aimed at increasing DRAM capacity with a focus on high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips used in graphic processing units (GPUs) to train artificial intelligence (AI) systems.  According to company forecasts, the annual HBM market will grow by more than 60 percent alongside wider increased demand for general DRAM products.  Reuters

Report Info

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Ken Hughes, Brian Bonner, and Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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