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Thursday, April 20, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
Americas
Analysis of the Growing Network of Chinese Police Stations Operating in 21 Countries. A report by Politico examines the issue of overseas ‘police stations’ operated by China, which the report describes as operations using civilian cover to allow for Chinese government activities to suppress and influence Chinese citizens living abroad. The report follows two Department of Justice (DOJ) indictments this week in the US against two Chinese citizens accused of operating out of one such facility in Manhattan. The indictments, according to the report, reveal a small glimpse of the global network of operations that Beijing has reportedly established in as many as 21 countries. The stations are thought to provide civilian cover for operations that are considered too risky for official Chinese diplomatic personnel, and are located in areas with large Chinese and Asian populations. Authorities in five of the countries have reportedly determined these operations to be in violation of their countries laws. The operations, which operate discreetly, are often difficult to find and shutter, but the indictments by the DOJ are viewed by some as a hopeful step that will spur additional action from other countries. Politico
FBI Warns China and Iran Using New Tactics to Intimidate Individuals in Violation of US Law. The FBI held a press conference on Wednesday where they warned that China and Iran have become more brazen in their activities to intimidate ‘dissidents’ and pursue influence campaigns on US soil. Counterintelligence officials from the FBI say that both countries are using new techniques, including the use of private investigators to monitor individuals and say it is part of a growing trend of authoritarian regimes that are violating US laws. FBI officials are encouraging victims to come forward publicly and that efforts are underway to highlight the issue among local law enforcement and the private investigation communities in the US. Reuters
US Afghanistan watchdog tells Congress No Guarantee American Aid is ‘Not Currently Funding the Taliban.’ John Sopko, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) told US lawmakers on Wednesday that he cannot guarantee that US foreign aid is not funding the Taliban. Sopko’s comments coincide with the latest SIGAR report that also included statistics on the number of Afghan immigrant applications that are in process. The report says there is a backlog of 175,000 applications. SIGAR, once tasked with overseeing US spending in Afghanistan as part of the US involvement there in the years following the attacks of September 11, is now tasked with monitoring the $7 billion that the US had dedicated to Afghanistan in foreign aid. CNN
U.S. Transfers $325M Military Aid Deal to Ukraine. The United States is expected to send another weapons package to Ukraine valued at $325 million, according to government officials. The new package will include ammunition for HIMARS rockets, artillery, and anti-armor weapons systems. The deliveries will come from current US military stockpiles. This announcement comes two weeks after the US announced a $2.6 billion package that would include support for Ukraine’s air defense. The New York Times
IT Specialists Pose Unique Challenge to Government Control of Classified Information. Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeira’s alleged leaks of classified intelligence on the Discord platform are the latest demonstration of the risk that information-technology workers pose to the U.S. government’s ability to control classified information. Experts say that those trusted with managing or troubleshooting technology pose a unique insider threat because of the nature of their duties, which usually require broad access to classified networks. Airman Teixeira worked on cyber report systems, which involved work “to keep our communications systems up and running”, according to an Air Force job description. Following disclosures made by Edward Snowden, who was a government contractor serving as a systems administrator for the NSA, a committee that reviewed how to overhaul intelligence practices made a specific set of recommendations for how the government should deal with systems administrators, not all of which have been adopted. Unnamed officials say that many of the post-Snowden intelligence reform measures have been applied unevenly across intelligence agencies and the military; the latest demonstration of that was this recent leak, which demonstrated that parts of the Department of Defense “don’t have the same stopgap measures as NSA or CIA do to protect sensitive material”. Wall Street Journal
Republican Party Opposes MTG’s Defense of Pentagon Leaker. The GOP appears unwilling to back Marjorie Taylor Greene in her defense of Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeira, who is accused of leaking a trove of classified documents related to national security matters over the last several months. Sen. Josh Hawley, long skeptical of U.S. support to Ukraine, said the leaker’s actions “were a crime”, and that even if he “exposed stuff the public should know”, the way he did it was wrong. Experts say that the degree to which Greene is alone in her position is significant for a Republican Party that is split over U.S. support to Ukraine in their fight against Russia. Senators left a classified briefing on the leaks earlier this week with a purported belief that Congress will need to play a role in revamping how the federal government handles classified information. Politico
US Sanctions Procurement Network PASNA, Supporting Iran’s Military Programs and Drones. The US Treasury Department announced sanctions on the head of Pardazan System Namad Arman (PASNA), and various suppliers based in China, Iran, Hong-Kong, and Malaysia. The US claims these companies are part of Iran’s UAV procurement network and defense industry. Reuters
Trudeau Admits Canadian Military Spending Shortfalls in Leaked Documents. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reportedly told NATO officials that he will never meet the two percent GDP defense-spending target, according to a leaked classified Pentagon assessment obtained by the Washington Post. According to NATO, Canada spends an estimated 1.29 percent of its GDP on defense; the military budget has been below 1.4 percent of GDP for 26 years. The document assessed that “enduring” shortfalls led the Canadian Armed Forces to believe that it would not be able to conduct a major operation while “simultaneously maintaining its NATO battlegroup leadership [in Latvia] and aid to Ukraine”, and that this was unlikely to change without more public support for defense spending in Canada. Trudeau did not respond directly when asked on Wednesday afternoon whether he made the comments alleged in the document. A Pentagon spokesman declined to address the contents of the assessment but told the Post that the “bond” between the two countries “remains close”. U.S. Northern Command did not respond to a request for comment. The Washington Post
Ukrainian President to Speak with Mexican Lawmakers on Thursday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is expected to address Mexican lawmakers on Thursday, according to an announcement from Mexico’s lower house of congress. The video speech is part of Zelenskiy’s efforts to secure Mexican support for Ukraine in the ongoing war with Russia. Mexico has said that they wish to remain neutral in war, but some Ukrainian supporters within the government have criticized President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador over this stance and his stance against European arms shipments to Ukraine. Despite this, Mexico has voted on a number of UN resolutions in favor of Ukraine. Both Germany’s President and the US Ambassador to Mexico have been two of many diplomatic allies who have attempted to persuade Mexico to side with Ukraine. Reuters
Costa Rican President Vows Tougher Laws and More Police to Combat Violence and Drug Trafficking. During a speech before Congress on Wednesday, Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chaves said that he will deploy more police, and work to change laws in Costa Rica in attempts to reduce the number of homicides in the country. As part of his calls to change the laws, he said he would work to have flexibility on extraditing Costa Ricans who are wanted for drug crimes in other countries, as well as the ability to prosecute minors as adults in cases of drug gang killings, and to stop judges from letting convicts with records out on bail. There were 657 reported homicides in the country last year, the majority related to drug trafficking. Costa Rica has seen an increase in drugs in the country as it has become a hub for shipment to the US and Europe, and the country’s local market has grown as well. Associated Press
Mexican Police Capture and Quickly Deport MS-13 Gang Leader to El Salvador. On Tuesday Mexico City police captured Jose Wilfredo Ayala, one of the most wanted leaders of the MS-13 gang, after a tip from a neighbor. According to an announcement from the city’s security ministry, they discovered that Ayala was using a fake identity and hiding in Mexico City. Alaya, who is believed to be second in command of the gang, was deported back to El Salvador soon after his capture. Reuters
After More than Two Decades, a Retired NASA Satellite Will Return to Earth. A defunct U.S. satellite will fall to Earth as soon as this week, according to NASA and the Department of Defense, but is unlikely to pose a risk to anyone on Earth. The Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager, or RHESSI, has been in space for more than 20 years; it was deployed to observe solar flares and clouds of plasma that came from the sun, and remained in orbit after it was decommissioned in 2018. Before it was decommissioned, it captured some of the first images of high-energy X-rays and gamma rays of solar flares, and “helped scientists understand the underlying physics of how such powerful bursts of energy are created”. The U.S. requires operators to “deorbit” satellites within five years of completing their missions as part of its plan for limiting space debris. CNN Washington Post
Western Europe
German FM Notes Increased Oppression and Belligerence after China Trip, Cautions Against Naivety. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock shared blunt reviews of her visit to Beijing warning that China is increasingly repressive internally and aggressive externally, with no regard for the international rules-based order. China asked for Germany’s support in the “reunification” of Taiwan and China, but Baerbock cautioned any Chinese attempts to control Taiwan would be unacceptable. As Germany moves to reduce economic dependence on Asia, Baerbock painted China as a growing systematic rival. Although China is Germany’s largest trading partner, the Foreign Minister claimed Beijing is not their most important trading partner, and called for Germany to focus on minimizing risk rather than full decoupling. She cautioned Western countries from repeating policy mistakes of pursuing regime “change through trade,” and be prepared to defend freedom, security, and the rule of law. Reuters Deutsche Welle
Investigation Discovers Fleet of Russian Spy Vessels has been Gathering Intel in the Nordic Sea for a Decade. A Scandinavian documentary team claims that Russian intelligence has been using a fleet of maritime vessels for espionage and that they have been allegedly mapping energy infrastructure in the North Sea for potential sabotage operations. The documentary, supported by broadcasting teams from Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden, claims the operation is run by a “top-secret branch of the Russian navy” and include more than 50 ships observed over the last 10 years. Data analysis shows suspicious sailing patterns of commercial and state-owned ships around critical energy sources and near military bases or exercises. The Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied the accusations, describing them as “baseless.” The documentary was scheduled to air Wednesday night. CNN France 24 Associated Press
Defense Secretary Austin Meets with Swedish Counterparts, Marks U.S. Support for Sweden's NATO Bid. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with his Swedish counterpart yesterday in a rare visit meant to signal U.S. support for Sweden’s effort to join NATO. The trip is the first visit to Sweden from a U.S. Secretary of Defense in more than 20 years. Turkey and Hungary continue to oppose Sweden’s accession to the alliance, but Washington is pushing to overcome those objections before the July NATO leaders summit in Lithuania. The U.S. conducts regular joint air and naval exercises with Sweden in the Baltic region; a senior DoD official said that once the country joins NATO, its “extraordinary advanced military capabilities will significantly enhance NATO’s military capability, particularly in the north”. Politico New York Times
EU Considers Temporary Restrictions on Ukrainian Grain Exports. The EU, in an attempt to alleviate concerns over Ukrainian grain, is proposing temporary restrictions on Ukrainian food exports to five of its member states. The proposal comes after Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Bulgaria said they would unilaterally block grain and other commodities from Ukraine due to pressure on domestic farmers. An EU official confirmed on Thursday that the temporary ban on certain Ukrainian food exports is in exchange for those countries canceling their unilateral measures, and would be supplemented by a financial assistance package of 100 million euros to subsidize farmers in Eastern and Central Europe. New York Times
Central & Eastern Europe
Treason & Espionage Court Cases Have Risen in Russia Each Month Since Start of Ukraine War. Russia’s use of treason and espionage laws has seen a sharp rise recently as analysts say that Moscow is using the laws to stifle dissent and opposition to the war in Ukraine. Sentences are reportedly much longer than previously and often include charges of terrorism or treason. Two recent high-profile cases are that of Vladimir Kara-Murza, journalist and government critic and Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. A lawyer for Moscow-based OVD Group, a human-rights organization says that there are more cases and there will be more convictions and adds that the number of such cases has risen every month since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Wall Street Journal France 24
City of Odessa Assaulted by Russian Drones, Ukraine in Need of Air Defenses. Russian drones hit the Ukrainian port city of Odessa yesterday according to the Ukrainian Air Force. Officials say they destroyed 10 out of 12 Iranian-made Shahed drones that targeted the city. Infrastructure was reportedly damaged but there were no reports of casualties. Wall Street Journal CNN
How Russian Propaganda has Turned Some Ukrainians Against their Own Country. Ukrainian citizens on the front lines of the war confound officials with their support for Russia. Many parrot Russian propaganda that the West started the war, and the Ukrainian military is shelling its own people to force evacuation. Ukrainian police Chief Dmytro Kirdiapin blames decades of Russian propaganda for turning Ukrainians against their government, he describes it as “the most brutal weapon.” The Russian government uses TV, radio, and social media to impose their narrative, including channels that warn citizens of incoming attacks and then blame Ukraine. Russian propaganda is so effective it incentivized some Ukrainians to spy for Russia and provide targeting information. The New York Times
Asia
UN Claims India Will Become World’s Most Populous Country Soon, Passing China. Data released by the United Nations on Wednesday alleges that India will soon surpass China as the world’s most populated country by the middle of this year. The data suggests India’s population will reach 1.4286 billion, almost 3 million more than China’s expected population of 1.4257 billion. UN officials said they cannot determine the exact date this will occur, mainly due to uncertainty over data from India and China given the outdated census records. The United States is the third largest at a very distant 340 million. CNN The New York Times
Philippines Will Not Allow U.S. to Store Weapons for Defending Taiwan on Shared Bases. The Philippines will not allow the US military to store weapons designed for use in a conflict with China on bases that are part of an expanded agreement with the US. Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo said Wednesday that the US will not be allowed to conduct activities on the bases that are not part of the original 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) and that Manila maintains a policy of ‘friend to all’ in the region. This comes following an announcement earlier this month that gave the US military access to four new locations in the Philippines, near the Taiwan Strait to house US troops on long term deployments. South China Morning Post
Middle East & Northern Africa
Pahlavi, the Son of Iran’s Last Shah, Visits Israel with Mixed Reactions. Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, visited Israel earlier this week, where he met with top Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu and President Isaac Herzog. The visit, which received mixed reactions, was aimed towards building what Pahlavi called a “brighter future” adding that he hopes Israeli’s know that the Islamic Republic does not represent the people of Iran. Pahlavi is the most prominent Iranian to visit Israel in history, according to the Israeli government. During his visit, he also participated in a Holocaust Memorial Day event, and visited the Western Wall with Rabbi Leo Dee, whose two daughters and wife were killed earlier this month in an attack allegedly carried out by Palestinians.
Israeli FM Claims Trip to Saudi Arabia is a Possibility. Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said on Wednesday to Israel’s Army Radio that a state visit to Saudi Arabia is very possible, although no date is set. In 2020, Israel agreed to normalize ties with the UAE and Bahrain, both Saudi Arabia’s neighbors as part of the Abraham Accords. Israel has also expressed clearly a desire to normalize ties with Saudi Arabia. During the interview, Cohen added that he expects at least one more Arab country to normalize relations and join the Abraham Accords with Israel by the end of the year, but did not elaborate further. Reuters
US Navy Sails First Drone Boat Through Strait of Hormuz. The US Navy Sailed an L3 Harris Arabian Fox Mast-13 through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, making it the first time the Navy has sailed an unmanned maritime vessel through these waters. The speedboat carried sensors and cameras, which drew attention from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, but the ship managed to pass through without incident. According to US Navy Spokesman Cmdr. Timothy Hawkins, the boat was accompanying other ships through the strait, and that the Iranians observed the vehicle with a drone and a fast-attack vessel in accordance with international law. Iran’s state run news agency IRNA also acknowledged that the drone had passed through the strait. Associated Press
Sub Saharan Africa
New Ceasefire Attempt Fails in Sudan, Thousands Attempt to Flee Khartoum. Gunfire re-erupted in central Khartoum and its sister cities of Omdurman and Bahri on Thursday, as thousands tried to flee and escape the fighting. Residents reported clashes west of Omdurman, where they said the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) had moved to block the arrival of paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) reinforcements. The SAF reportedly controls access to Khartoum and appears to be trying to cut off RSF supply routes. The two sides had initially agreed to a 24-hour ceasefire – lobbied for by countries like Japan and Germany who are trying to evacuate their citizens – but that pledge quickly broke down on Wednesday night. The RSF issued a statement about the ceasefire collapse, claiming that it came under attack in Omdurman and inflicted losses on the SAF, including shooting down two helicopters, but these claims have not been independently verified. At least 331 people have died and 3180 have been injured, according to estimates from Sudan’s health ministry, but analysts expect those numbers to be many times higher. Al Jazeera Reuters CNN Reuters Washington Post
177 Egyptian Soldiers Evacuated From Northern Sudan. On Thursday, the Sudanese army said that 177 Egyptian Air Force troops who had been held in the northern Sudanese town of Merowe by paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) were airlifted back to Egypt via four Egyptian military planes. The Egyptian troops were reportedly in Sudan for joint air force exercises, and have been held by the RSF since clashes broke out in the country on Saturday. Reuters
Risk of Escalation: Libyan and Egyptian Troops Support Rival Generals in Sudan Conflict. Regional players are reportedly continuing to support different sides of Sudan’s warring factions, likely in an attempt to tip the scales over who ultimately “wins” the ongoing conflict there. Unnamed sources claim that Khalifa Haftar, the commander of a faction that controls eastern Libya, dispatched at least one plane full of military supplies earlier this week to Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), while Egypt sent warplanes and pilots to support the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF). Haftar has a longstanding relationship with RSF leader Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, whose RSF fighters fought alongside Haftar’s men in Libya when he launched a failed attempt to seize Tripoli from the internationally-recognized government in 2019. The Egyptian government, in contrast, has long supported the SAF and almost certainly would prefer they emerge victorious. Analysts assess that the 2021 coup in Sudan, which was led by SAF leader Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, was almost certainly supported by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. A Sudanese army official claimed that an Egyptian fighter jet destroyed a RSF ammunition depot on Monday afternoon. Analysts say that such support, while not entirely unexpected, undermines the international community’s efforts to cease hostilities and return to negotiations and raises the risk of escalation in the fighting. Wall Street Journal
At Least 78 Killed in Yemen Stampede After Gunfire Spooks Crowd. At least 78 people were killed and 73 injured in a stampede in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa on Wednesday, officials say, during a distribution of charity for Ramadan. Two eyewitnesses told the Associated Press that Houthi fighters, who have controlled the city since 2015, fired in the air in an attempt at crowd control, inadvertently striking an electrical wire which then caused an explosion. The crowd then panicked, which led to the stampede. Houthi rebels have reportedly cordoned off the school and barred people, including journalists, from approaching the scene. The head of the Houthis’ Supreme Revolutionary Committee blamed the crowd and the stampede on the country’s humanitarian crisis. Associated Press Reuters BBC
Cyber & Tech
EU Proposes $1.2 billion Plan to Counter Growing Cybersecurity Threats. The European Commission, in the face of mounting cyberattacks, on Tuesday announced a $1.2 billion plan to create a European Cybersecurity Shield and a comprehensive Cyber Emergency Mechanism. The Shield will operate security centers employing AI and data analytics to monitor cross-border cyber threats and incidents. Critical sectors such as healthcare and energy will be tested by the cyber mechanism to detect possible vulnerabilities. Reuters
UK Official Warns Russia-Linked Hackers Targeting Key UK Sectors. According to prepared remarks to be delivered today at a Belfast cybersecurity conference, a top-ranking UK Cabinet minister will warn that Russian hackers organized along the lines of Wagner Group pose a new threat to British business. Oliver Dowden is expected to announce cybersecurity resilience goals focused on critical sectors such as health, defense and finance for 2025 that are similar to the U.S. National Security Strategy recently released by the White House. Bloomberg
Russia Tests Secretive Weapon Against SpaceX Starlink in Ukraine. U.S. intelligence obtained by the Washington Post indicates that Russia has been conducting tests for months of its Tobol electronic warfare systems directed at Starlink transmissions. While the intelligence report does not characterize the success of the Russian operations, it does reveal a possible capability of a system originally conceived as protection for Russian satellite systems. It is not known if reported outages of Ukraine’s Starlink network were the result of Tobol interference or other types of Russian jamming operations. Washington Post
U.S.-UK Cyber Security Agencies Identify Russian Malware on CISCO Routers. In a joint report released Wednesday, U.S. and British cybersecurity agencies warned that the Russian state-sponsored threat group, APT28, has deployed custom malware that allows unauthenticated access to CISCO routers. According to Bleeping Computer, the joint advisory reveals a growing trend by state-sponsored threat actors to employ custom malware in cyberespionage and surveillance operations. BleepingComputer
Russian Info-Ops Specialists Add YouTube Videos to Ukraine Repertoire. The Google Threat Analysis Group reports that Russia-affiliated threat actors have incorporated new tactics in their campaigns against Ukraine, including polished YouTube videos to influence public opinion and conduct intelligence gathering. According to Google’s Billy Leonard, the elite Russian hacking group Sandworm “continues to focus heavily on the war in Ukraine with campaigns spanning intelligence collection, IO, and leaking hacked data through Telegram.” CyberScoop
Washington Post Investigation Maps Website Data Behind AI “Smarts.” A joint investigation by the Washington Post and the Allen Institute for AI analyzed website data from Google’s C4 dataset to isolate “tokens” – words or phrases – extracted from 10 million websites. The goal was to discover the types of proprietary and personal information that forms the pool of AI training data. The bulk of the tokens derived from websites dedicated to journalism, entertainment, software development, medicine, and content creation. Among other findings, the Post discovered two sites in the top 100 contained copies of state voter registration databases that, while public, raise privacy concerns about the way data might be used. Washington Post
Microsoft Developing AI Chips to Train Large Language Models. In a bid to reduce dependence on Nvidia’s AI chips, Microsoft is reportedly developing rival chips in its Athena program that will be available by next year. While the Microsoft chips will not displace Nvidia’s products entirely, the in-house technology could cut costs significantly in AI-powered Microsoft products such as Bing and MS Office apps. TheVerge
Israeli Firm Warns Generative AI Could Expose Corporate Secrets. An Israeli venture firm, Team8, has issued a report that details potential threats posed by generative AI products like ChatGPT. The report noted that corporate use of generative AI could open unintended access to sensitive documentation, including intellectual property, source codes, and customer information. The report also pointed to vulnerabilities on the user side, including the possibility of compromised third party generative AI applications providing access to email and web browsers, allowing an “attacker to take actions on behalf of a user.” Bloomberg
Space Force Chief Promises “substantial” on-orbit capability by 2026. Space Force chief General Chance Saltzman told Congress this week that “a substantial on-orbit capability that allows us to compete in full-spectrum operations” will be operational by 2026.” Speaking before the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee, Saltzman credited recent additional funding as the means to accelerate program development. Breaking Defense noted that “full-spectrum operations” might indicate capabilities for offensive and defensive space operations if needed. BreakingDefense
SPACECOM to reach full operational capability by end of year, commander says. Gen. James Dickinson, Commander U.S. Space Command, announced the new combatant command will reach full operational capability by the end of 2023. The Command identified space domain awareness, space combat power, joint space command and control, and the joint space communications layer as the four foundational capability documents. SPACECOM is also building international relationships by signing two “enhanced space cooperation” memorandums with the UK Ministry of Defense and Royal Canadian Air Force.DefenseScoop
US Central Command recruits former Google Cloud leader and AI expert to be top tech adviser. Yesterday, Andrew Moore was appointed the first U.S. Central Command adviser for Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotics, cloud computing, and data analytics. Dr. Moore earned a PhD in computer science from Cambridge, and previously worked as the dean of Carnegie Mellon’s School of Computer Science before his most recent role with Google Cloud. This hire demonstrates CENTCOM’s priority shift to digital transformation and leverage AI, unmanned systems, the cloud, and big data. DefenseScoop
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