Report for Thursday, April 18, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Netanyahu says Israel will defend itself, Iran braces for Israeli counterattack

Top U.S. general says Ukraine faces 'dire' situation with aid delayed

Russia using Ukraine war to weaken Western nations, started efforts to undermine U.S. elections

Widespread 911 outages reported across multiple U.S. states

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The Case for Investing in Wartime Ukriane.

ISRAEL WEIGHS RESPONSE TO IRAN ATTACK

Israel will defend itself, Netanyahu says, as West, Muslim nations call for restraint.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that Israel will make its own decision on how it will defend itself.  Israel’s foreign affairs ministry reported Netanyahu’s remarks after he met with U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who, like their other Western and Middle Eastern counterparts, are calling for Israel to show restraint in its response to Iran’s weekend attack.  Cameron said he hopes Israeli retaliation against Iran will be “as limited and as targeted and as smart as possible.”  Netanyahu thanked Israel’s friends for their “support in both words and deeds” and said he appreciates their suggestions and advice but was adamant that “Israel will do whatever is necessary to defend itself.”  Israel’s war cabinet continues to mull exactly what this will look like.  Reuters Politico Associated Press 

Iran bracing for Israel’s counter-attack.  Iran said Wednesday it is preparing for expected air strikes from Israel.  If Israel stages its attack on Iranian soil, likely targets would be IRGC bases or nuclear research facilities. "Any attack by the Zionist regime (Israel) on our soil will be dealt with a severe response," Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said Wednesday at a parade held for Iran’s Army Day, state media reported.  If Israeli leaders decide to attack Iran’s assets in a third country, Iran’s large military presence in Syria would be a prime target.  Underscoring this, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its Lebanese proxy militant force, Hezbollah, have pulled senior officers out of Syria, and moved lower-rank officers to safer locations, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Brigadier General Amir Vahedi, commander of the Iranian air force, declared at the Army Day event that Iran’s warplanes, including Russian-made Sukhoi-24s, were in their "best state of preparedness" to counter any Israeli attack.  "We have full readiness in all fields, including our air coverage and bombers, and are prepared for any operation," Vahedi said, according to Iranian media.  Shahram Irani, commander of the Iranian Navy, said Wednesday that the frigate Jamaran, an advanced naval vessel equipped with advanced missiles and sensors, is in the Gulf of Aden and will continue to the Red Sea as part of efforts to escort Iranian commercial ships.  "We escort our ships from the Gulf of Aden to the Suez Strait and we are ready to protect the ships of other countries as well," Irani told Iranian media.  Wall Street Journal Jerusalem Post Times of Israel Reuters

Diplomats join forces to try to calm the Middle East.  Many of the world’s most experienced diplomats focused Wednesday on a common goal:  keeping Israel and Iran from torching the Middle East.  Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken arrived in Italy Wednesday to meet with foreign ministers with the Group of 7, on containing the Israel-Iran conflict, as well as securing a cease-fire, hostage release, and massive humanitarian relief in Gaza, and supporting Ukraine.

Also on Wednesday, Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia spoke on the phone with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan Wednesday to discuss the “grave threats” the Iran-Israel conflict poses to regional stability and security, according to the Emirati state news agency WAM.  They called on “all parties to exercise maximum restraint and prevent the region and its people from suffering the consequences of a wider conflict.”  Other Saudi leaders also made clear their distress about the situation.  “We are already in an unstable region, and the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza is already inflaming the region,” Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan told a press conference with his Pakistani counterpart in Islamabad. “We do not need more conflict in our region; we do not need more confrontation in our region, so it is our position that de-escalation must be everybody’s priority.”  Saudi Arabia resumed diplomatic ties with Iran last March.  New York Times Al-Monitor Department of State CNN X/Miller 

Drone-and-missile warfare tests supply-strapped defense systems. The near-complete defeat of Iran's drone-and-missile barrage against Israel on Saturday highlighted the success of air-defense systems but also underscored the global shortage of weapons capable of intercepting such attacks. The global scramble for missiles has led to a two-year or more delivery time for some air-defense interceptors, with a lack of components like rocket motors contributing to the lag. Iran's attack on Israel was notable for its scale, involving over 120 ballistic missiles, 30 cruise missiles, and approximately 170 drones, most of which were intercepted by Israeli Arrow air-defense systems, U.S. destroyers, a U.S. Patriot air-defense battery, and various fighter aircraft.  Wall Street Journal 

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Gaza cease-fire talks still stalled.  Negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Doha for a truce in Gaza and release of hostages have deadlocked, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani told a news conference on Wednesday.  “We are going through a sensitive stage with some stalling, and we are trying as much as possible to address this stalling,” Al-Thani said.  Over the weekend Hamas rejected the latest proposal for a temporary ceasefire for several weeks, the release of dozens of hostages for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel’s jails, and massive humanitarian aid to Gaza.  Israel said Hamas’ refusal showed that its military leader, Yahya Sinwar, was not interested in a humanitarian agreement and was exploiting the distraction created by Israel’s confrontation with Iran.  Times of Israel Reuters 

Hezbollah rocket fire injures 18 in northern Israel.  The Israeli Defense Forces says 18 people, including 14 soldiers, were wounded Wednesday by a Hezbollah drone and missile attack on Arab al-Aramshe, a Bedouin village on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. The IDF said an explosives-laden drones smashed into an abandoned community center where the soldiers and others were taking shelter.  “In response, the IDF struck the sources of the fire and a Hezbollah military compound in southern Lebanon where terrorists were operating,” the IDF said in a post on X.  Times of Israel Reuters New York Times X/IDF Al Jazeera

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The Case for Investing in Wartime Ukriane.

Top U.S. general warns of Ukraine’s ‘dire’ situation with aid delayed.  U.S. General Charles Q. Brown, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the House Appropriates Defense subcommittee on Wednesday that Ukraine is facing “dire battlefield conditions” and warned Kyiv’s gains “could be lost without our support.”  Brown said Ukraine’s forces are “being outmatched by the Russians” due to delayed U.S. military aid.  U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told the House panel that the delay of U.S. assistance “sends a terrible signal to our allies and partners, who will question whether or not we are committed to this cause and whether or not we are a reliable partner.”  After months of delay, the Republican-controlled House is expected to vote on the $60.84 billion aid package for Ukraine on Saturday. Bloomberg

ISW: Ukraine cannot hold lines without ‘rapid resumption’ of Ukraine aid.  The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned that Ukraine “cannot hold the present lines now without the rapid resumption” of U.S. military aid. The institute’s Tuesday analysis said only the U.S. can provide critical air defense munitions and artillery shells that can keep Ukraine in the fight. “Lack of air defense has exposed Ukrainian front-line units to Russian aircraft that are now dropping thousands of bombs on Ukrainian defensive positions for the first time in this war,” ISW researcher Frederick Kagan wrote. “Ukrainian artillery shortages are letting the Russians use armored columns without suffering prohibitive losses for the first time since 2022,” he added. Kagan said if the U.S. abandons Ukraine, Russia will take Kyiv and push against NATO’s border up to Poland. “An independent Ukraine with a strong military and a pro-Western government will make a Russian attack on NATO much more difficult, risky, and costly for Moscow,” according to Kagan.  “A victorious Russia that succeeds in its aim of destroying Ukraine entirely, on the other hand, will pose a major conventional military threat to NATO in a relatively short period of time.”  The Hill Institute for the Study of War

Russian missile attack north of Kyiv kills at least 17, Ukraine says. A Russian missile attack Wednesday in Chernihiv, north of Kyiv, has killed at least 17 people, and injured at least 61.  “This would not have happened if Ukraine had received enough air defense equipment and if the world’s determination to counter Russian terror was also sufficient,” President Volodymyr. Zelensky said in a statement.  Amid dwindling Western military support, particularly in air defense systems, Ukraine faces increasing pressures as Russian forces advance, threatening critical defensive positions in eastern Ukraine.  New York Times Reuters Associated Press

Zelensky says Ukrainian military attacked Russian airfield in occupied Crimea.  President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that the Ukrainian military executed a precise strike on a Russian airfield in Dzhankoi, in occupied Crimea. In his nightly address on Wednesday, Zelensky praised the Ukrainian forces and commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky for the successful operation, emphasizing the importance of targeting Russian military infrastructure. Reports of explosions at the base were noted by unofficial sources in both Ukraine and Russia before the announcement.  Reuters Kyiv Independent 

Over 50,000 Russians killed in Ukraine, BBC reports.  BBC Russian and media group Mediazona report that Russian military casualties in the Ukraine war have surpassed 50,000.  According to the tally, 27,300 Russian soldiers died in the second year of the war, a 25 percent increase from the first year.  The research found that Russia’s use of “meat grinder” tactics, in which waves of troops were sent in frontal assaults, likely accelerated military losses last year.  The investigation also found that Russian losses spiked during large-scale offensives in Donetsk, and again later in the battle for Bakhmut.  The analysis also estimates that at least two of every five Russian soldiers who died had nothing to do with the military pre-war, having been volunteers, civilians, and prisoners, who therefore lacked technical and tactical expertise.  The Kremlin said it does not disclose information about military casualties due to laws covering official secrets of Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.  Russia released only one official death toll in September 2022, when it said just under 6,000 of its soldiers had been killed in Ukraine.  Al Jazeera BBC

Russia steps up illegal use of tear gas to clear trenches, Ukraine says.  ​​The Ukrainian military reports that Russia has escalated its illegal use of riot control agents to clear trenches on the front.  Colonel Serhii Pakhomov, acting head of the Ukrainian military’s atomic, biological and chemical defense forces, said Ukraine recorded around 900 instances of Russia using riot control agents, such as tear gas, in the past six months, out of over 1,400 cases since the start of its invasion.  The use of these agents violates the Chemical Weapons Convention and poses a serious threat to Ukrainian soldiers in trenches without gas masks.  Despite accusations from both Russia and Ukraine that the other side uses chemical weapons, independent verification of the allegations is lacking.  Limited access to affected areas complicates documentation and accountability efforts. Reuters

Secret Russian Foreign Ministry plan aims to use Ukraine war to weaken Western nations.  A 2023 document obtained by a European intelligence service shows that Russia’s Foreign Ministry is drafting plans to weaken the U.S. and other Western adversaries and use the Ukraine war to establish a global order free from American dominance, The Washington Post reported Wednesday.  The document, classified in the Russian system, calls for an “offensive information campaign” and other measures spanning “military-political, economic and trade and informational psychological spheres” against a “coalition of unfriendly countries,” the Post reported. “We need to continue adjusting our approach to relations with unfriendly states,” the document says, according to the Post’s translation. “It’s important to create a mechanism for finding the vulnerable points of their external and internal policies with the aim of developing practical steps to weaken Russia’s opponents.”  The Foreign Ministry plan says the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine will “to a great degree determine the outlines of the future world order,” lending additional urgency to Moscow’s resolve to win at all costs, the Post reported, Washington Post Kyiv Independent 

Germany launches urgent appeal to bolster Ukraine's starved air defenses against Russia. Germany has urged European Union and NATO members to urgently strengthen Ukraine's air defenses in response to ongoing Russian missile attacks.  German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock have launched an initiative to get more air defense support to Kyiv, highlighting the need for increased support as the U.S. and EU face delays in providing necessary funding and munitions.  The initiative has gained traction, with countries like the Netherlands, Czechia, and Denmark expressing support for quick action. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen suggested European countries should consider "sending a few of our own air defense systems to Ukraine at a time when they, not we, are struggling daily to fight off the never-ending Russian attack."  President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday said Germany's recent push to send more Patriot air defense missiles was helpful, but asked European Union leaders to do more and stick to their commitments. "I ask you to accelerate the implementation of our agreements with you – both on supplies and joint production of weapons and ammunition, and on financing relevant projects,” Zelensky told E.U. leaders.  Reuters Kyiv Independent  

Dutch deliver three more F-16s for training Ukrainian pilots in Romania.  On Wednesday, the Netherlands delivered three more F-16 fighter jets to a training center in Romania to aid Ukrainian pilots and ground staff in learning how to operate and maintain the aircraft.  The Netherlands plans to deliver a total of 24 F-16s to Ukraine, with the first expected to arrive later this year.  Despite skepticism about the jets changing the course of the war given Russia's formidable air force, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren highlighted the necessity of stronger support for Ukraine in response to Russia's ongoing aggression.  Last week, the Dutch government said it would increase military support to Ukraine to $3.19 billion this year, and it has earmarked the same amount for 2025. Reuters 

Zelensky outlines three points to help Ukraine recover from war.  President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking at a ministerial-level roundtable at the World Bank, outlined three requirements to help Ukraine win the war and also rebuild post-war.  First, he said Ukraine “requires sufficient financial support” from Western partners.  Second, Zelensky said “justice” is needed, which he described as using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine.  Doing this will make Russia, which he called “the sole culprit of this war,” pay a “painful price” for its invasion.  Third, Zelensky said Ukraine needs reconstruction help to recover from Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.  Kyiv Independent

Ukraine to receive $1.6 billion from E.U. next week in second tranche of financial aid.  Ukraine will receive 1.5 billion euros ($1.6 billion) in E.U. macro-financial assistance next week.  The aid will be the second tranche of assistance under the E.U.’s four-year Ukraine facility, which allocates 33 billion euros ($35 billion) in loans and 17 billion euros ($18 billion) in grants.  The first tranche of 4.5 billion euros ($4.8 billion) was given to Ukraine on March 20.  Kyiv Independent

Over 2,000 foreign components in Russian Sukhoi fighter jets.  Russian Sukhoi fighter jets allegedly contain over 2,000 foreign-made electronic components, mainly from Japan and the U.S., according to an investigation by RFE/RL, in collaboration with the Independent Commission Against Corruption.  Ukrainian intelligence sources provided a list of the foreign-made parts, which are sourced from intermediary suppliers in Hungary, Cyprus, Turkey, China, and Russia.  The parts are in the nose and middle section of the aircraft, making up “navigation and missile guidance systems, electronic warfare means, and communication between aircraft and control points.”  The investigation adds to evidence that Russia continues to evade Western sanctions and obtain goods that fuel its war machine.  Kyiv Independent RFE/RL

The Americas

Biden urges passing of aid bills.  President Joe Biden, in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, laid out his best arguments for Congressional action on the national security supplemental funding bill that holds desperately needed aid for Ukraine and Israel.  Biden wrote:

“Mr. Putin wants to subjugate the people of Ukraine and absorb their nation into a new Russian empire. The government of Iran wants to destroy Israel forever—wiping the world’s only Jewish state off the map.  America must never accept either outcome—not only because we stand up for our friends, but because our security is on the line, too.  If Russia triumphs, Mr. Putin’s forces will move closer than ever to our North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies. ‘An attack on one is an attack on all’ means that if Mr. Putin invades a NATO ally, we will come to its aid—as our NATO allies did for us after the Sept. 11 attacks. We should surge support to Ukraine now, to stop Mr. Putin from encroaching on our NATO allies and ensure that he doesn’t draw U.S. troops into a future war in Europe.

Likewise, if Iran succeeds in significantly escalating its assault on Israel, the U.S. could be drawn in. Israel is our strongest partner in the Middle East; it’s unthinkable that we would stand by if its defenses were weakened and Iran was able to carry out the destruction it intended this weekend. We can make that outcome less likely by replenishing Israel’s air defenses and providing military aid now, so its defenses can remain fully stocked and ready.”   

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) released the text Wednesday for three bills that would combine military assistance to Ukraine, Israel and allies in the Indo-Pacific with humanitarian aid for Gaza and other global hot spots.   He has scheduled a vote for Saturday, infuriating the most conservative members of the Republican caucus, some of whom are threatening to oust him.  Wall Street Journal Kyiv Independent Al Jazeera The Hill Washington Post

US reimposes Venezuela sanctions, blaming Maduro for breaking deal.  The Biden administration reimposed oil sanctions on Venezuela on Wednesday, citing the Maduro regime’s failure to facilitate free and fair elections scheduled for July.  Under new guidelines released Wednesday, some Western energy companies that entered Venezuela after the U.S. lifted sanctions and issued a six-month general license permitting oil operations must now apply for individual licenses from the Treasury Department.  Without a license, they must close up operations by May 31.  Chevron, Italy’s Eni, Repsol of Spain and other companies that received special licenses to operate in Venezuela in 2022 don’t need new ones and can continue operations in joint ventures with state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela.  Companies that want to enter Venezuela can do so after applying for and obtaining a license.  Bloomberg Reuters Wall Street Journal Reuters 

DHS Secretary Mayorkas impeachment dismissed.  The U.S. Senate dismissed all impeachment charges against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, ending the House Republican-led effort to remove him from office over his handling of the U.S.-Mexico border.  The move ended the impeachment trial before arguments even began.  Mayorkas faced two articles of impeachment: the first charging him with “willful and systemic refusal to comply” with immigration law and the second alleging a “breach of trust” for stating the border was secure.  Senators voted along party lines in the vote.  Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer argued that the House Republicans' case failed to meet the high standard for impeachment and could set a dangerous precedent.  Associated Press

Biden says U.S. Steel should remain American, calls for tripling tariffs on Chinese steel.  President Joe Biden pledged to steelworkers in Pittsburgh that U.S. Steel would remain a “totally American company,”  expressing his opposition to the company's proposed $14.9 billion acquisition by Japan's Nippon Steel.  Biden's remarks have put the deal, which he first opposed last month, on “life support,” according to reports.  Biden also announced plans to call on U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai to more than triple tariffs on certain Chinese steel and aluminum products from 7.5% to 25%, as part of a series of measures to support American manufacturers facing low-cost imports. Additionally, Biden will announce a new trade representative investigation into China's support for shipbuilders and related industries, in response to a union complaint.  Reuters New York Times Associated Press 

TikTok Divest-or-Ban bill heads to fast track in U.S. Congress. House Speaker Mike Johnson has outlined a plan to quickly pass legislation that would force ByteDance Ltd, TikTok's Chinese parent company, to divest its ownership of the social media platform or face a ban. The divest-or-ban bill will be included in a package of fast-moving bills providing new aid for Ukraine and Israel, which the House is expected to consider on Saturday.  The proposed legislation would give ByteDance up to a year to divest itself of TikTok, a longer timeframe than the six-month period in the previously passed House measure.  Senate Commerce Committee Chair Maria Cantwell proposed changes to the House bill, including the extended deadline, to ensure the legislation can withstand legal challenges.  Bloomberg Politico 

U.S. nuclear-missile sub delayed up to 16 months over bow, generators. The delivery of the U.S. Navy's first Columbia-class nuclear missile submarine, the USS District of Columbia, may be delayed by up to 16 months due to contractor delays in delivering the vessel's bow section and power generators. The vessel was originally scheduled for delivery in October 2027, with the goal of deployment in 2031, but the delay could push back these timelines. The House Armed Service's seapower subcommittee is holding a hearing to review the Navy's fiscal 2025 shipbuilding request and the service's recent review of its ship programs, which disclosed the Columbia delay without providing detailed reasons. General Dynamics Corp. and HII are responsible for designing and constructing the 12-boat class under a roughly $130 billion program.  Bloomberg 

G7 finance leaders pledge cooperation on Iran sanctions, frozen Russian assets.  Finance leaders from the G7 on Wednesday condemned Iran's weekend attack on Israel and pledged continued efforts to utilize frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine.  Meeting on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank gatherings, they discussed coordinating measures against Iran and maintaining financial stability as priorities for sustainable growth. Despite recent economic resilience, they noted geopolitical risks, especially from Russia's war in Ukraine and Middle Eastern conflicts, which could affect global trade and prices. The G7 is committed to helping Ukraine financially and ensuring Russia compensates for damages, and it is planning further discussions at a June summit in Italy.  Earlier on Wednesday, Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said the G7 discussions on frozen Russian sovereign assets, estimated at about $300 billion, were still a "work in progress." Adeyemo told an event hosted by the Semafor news outlet that finance ministers were doing technical work to develop options that still include building a strong legal foundation for the outright seizure of the assets. "We're talking through a number of different options. One of them is seizure, but another is collateralizing, or even using the windfall profits or the interest from these assets to fund a loan," Adeyemo said. Because the bulk of the assets are being held in Europe, it was important that the U.S. work closely with European allies on the issue, Adeyemo said.  Reuters 

Asia and Oceania

Philippines moves to strengthen ties with Japan.  The Philippines' decision to ramp up ties with Japan and the United States at a recent summit was a "sovereign choice" for the country, its foreign ministry said Thursday.  The Philippine foreign ministry said the trilateral grouping would promote peace and economic growth and was not a threat. China's "excessive maritime claims and aggressive behavior,” on the other hand, are undermining the peace and stability in the region, it said. "The source of tension in our region is well known to all. China should reflect upon its own actions in the South China Sea," the ministry said.  Reuters 

Philippines plans ambitious exercise with U.S. as concerns over China grow.  The Philippines and the U.S. are set to hold a joint military exercise next week amid escalating tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea.  The three-week exercise, coined “Balikatan”, will feature the debut of the Philippines' newly procured ship-based missile system, working with U.S. Air Force squadrons to strike and sink a decommissioned ship, as well as the deployment of HIMARS onto two secured islands for live-firing exercises.  Also, the U.S. and Philippine militaries will conduct joint naval drills beyond the Philippines' 12-nautical-mile territorial waters, in areas of the open sea claimed by China, for the first time.  Over 16,000 soldiers operating out of a joint command center will participate in the drills.  Washington Post Bloomberg

Lawmakers have a fix for Taiwan’s weapons backlog: Build them on the island.  A bipartisan group of lawmakers are pushing to accelerate weapons deliveries to Taiwan by allowing the island nation to build some U.S.-designed systems under license.  The effort aims to address the $19 billion backlog of U.S. systems for Taiwan caused by procurement issues. Representative Seth Moulton (D-MA) said that the effort would boost Taiwan's defense capabilities and put pressure on large defense contractors to meet production goals. Coproduction could deepen industrial ties between Washington and Taipei but also carries risks, such as the potential leakage of sensitive technology to China, which already heavily harvests intelligence from Taiwan. Representative Mike Gallagher (R-WI) and Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) have expressed support for exploring the shift of U.S. aerial and underwater drone production to Taiwan.  Politico

China foreign minister says Beijing and Jakarta want regional peace and stability. China and Indonesia have committed to strengthening economic relations and maintaining regional stability, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Thursday during a visit to Jakarta. During discussions, Wang also urged restraint in the Gaza conflict and called on the United States to support a United Nations ceasefire resolution.  Wang and his Indonesian counterpart discussed escalating their countries’ economic partnership, notably in infrastructure and Indonesia's energy transition.  Chinese investments in Indonesia topped $7.4 billion last year.  Additionally, both sides emphasized the importance of peace in the Indo-Pacific and discussed accelerating a code of conduct for the South China Sea.  Reuters

Australia questioning domestic security following two knife attacks.  Australia is grappling with rising knife crime, highlighted by recent stabbings in Sydney that killed six and injured others.  The incidents have prompted discussions on enhancing public security and better equipping security guards.  Following these attacks, local authorities are considering extending police powers and enhancing security protocols in public spaces, reflecting growing public concern over non-gun violence. Reuters

Europe

Russia announces total withdrawal of troops from Nagorno-Karabakh.  Russia announced it will withdraw all of its nearly 2,000 troops from the Nagorno-Karabakh region, just six months after they witnessed Azerbaijan take control of the region, which led to a mass exodus of its Armenian population.  The surprise announcement, confirmed by Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov, comes as Moscow directs all available resources into its war on Ukraine, despite Russian troops in Nagorno-Karabakh having a peacekeeping mandate in the region until at least the end of 2025.  The Russian military contingent did not intervene when Azerbaijan began a long-running blockade of the region's supply lines from December 2022, causing a humanitarian crisis, and retreated from their positions in September last year ahead of Azerbaijan’s surprise offensive and seizure of the region.  Politico Associated Press Al Jazeera  

Poland to join European Sky Shield scheme, following thaw with Berlin. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced this week that Poland will join the German-led European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), marking a significant policy shift from the previous government which had strained relations with Germany. This initiative, aimed at enhancing air defense interoperability and joint procurement among European nations, now includes 21 countries. Tusk's commitment underscores Poland's urgent focus on improving air defense capabilities amid the Ukraine war.  Defense News

Army leaders are open to more permanent basing in Poland. The U.S. Army's top leaders are considering permanently basing more soldiers in Poland, which would alleviate the strain on units frequently deployed overseas.  Deployments have intensified since Russia's 2014 initial invasion of Ukraine and its full-scale one in 2022, raising concerns about the impact on soldier wellbeing.  There would still be challenges with the expanded basing, such as the need for additional infrastructure to support families.  Polish officials support increasing U.S. military presence.  Currently, the Army has two brigade-sized ground forces permanently assigned to Europe — the 173rd Airborne headquartered in Italy and the 2nd Cavalry Regiment in Germany.  Three additional U.S. brigade combat teams also are on rotational missions in Europe, in connection to a mission to deter Russian aggression on NATO’s eastern flank.  Stars and Stripes

Belgium, Czech Republic seek sanctions for Russian interference in EU elections. Belgium and the Czech Republic have urged the European Union to implement new sanctions to counter Russian influence before the European elections, following early signs of interference. An open letter from Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo and Czech President Peter Fiala highlighted instances of pro-Russian disinformation and a network involving cash transfers to promote pro-Russian candidates in the European Parliament. In response, EU leaders agreed to activate an emergency crisis mechanism, previously used during the COVID-19 pandemic, to monitor and combat disinformation.  Reuters Kyiv Independent

Belarus’ parliament votes to leave Europe’s conventional forces treaty, already abandoned by Russia.  The Belarusian parliament voted on Wednesday to suspend the country's participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty.  This key Cold War-era security agreement limits the deployment of certain military equipment in Europe.  This move, initiated by President Alexander Lukashenko, follows Russia's complete withdrawal from the treaty in 2023.  The suspension could allow Belarus, a close ally of Russia and a staging ground for Russian forces in its war on Ukraine, to expand its military capabilities.  Associated Press 

Georgia pushes Russian-style ‘foreign agent’ law, putting EU bid at risk. Georgia's Parliament moved forward with a controversial "foreign agents" bill, reminiscent of a Russian law used to suppress dissent.  The 150-seat parliament voted 83 in favor of the measure and no one against on Tuesday.  The legislation mandates that nongovernmental organizations and media receiving over 20% of their funding from abroad register as "foreign agents." Critics, including President Salome Zourabichvili, argue that the bill, influenced by Russia, threatens Georgia’s European Union aspirations by aligning the nation closer to Moscow’s interests.  Despite Zourabichvili's promised veto, the ruling Georgian Dream party, controlled by pro-Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, has sufficient votes to override it.  Washington Post Bloomberg Al Jazeera  

Middle East

Human rights group alleges widespread torture and abuse of detainees accused of IS affiliation in Syria.  Amnesty International reported Wednesday that widespread abuses, including torture and medical neglect, have taken place in detention centers in northeast Syria holding around 56,000 people, mostly children, linked to Islamic State.  The prisons, overseen by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and backed by the U.S., have faced criticism for indefinite detentions without trial and harsh conditions leading to deaths.  Amnesty urged compliance with international law and called for United Nations assistance in screening and releasing detainees not linked to serious crimes. “People held in this system are facing large-scale violations of their rights, some of which amount to war crimes,” Nicolette Waldman, Amnesty’s senior crisis advisor, told journalists. The U.S. acknowledged concerns and emphasized repatriation efforts by the home countries of detainees.  Associated Press

Africa

U.S. troops vulnerable in Niger, whistleblower says.  A U.S. Air Force whistleblower in Niger has raised concerns about the safety of American troops stationed there, claiming that U.S. embassy officials in Niamey have suppressed intelligence and maintained a deceptive narrative of stable relations with Niger, despite the country's military junta declaring the U.S. military presence illegal.  The complaint, addressed to Congress, suggests the embassy's actions could endanger U.S. personnel and strain relations with other African nations.  The State Department and Defense Department have denied these claims, emphasizing ongoing diplomatic efforts to secure a continued U.S. presence in Niger, which is crucial for counterterrorism operations in the region.  However, the situation remains tense, with U.S. troops unable to perform their duties or rotate out since the country’s coup last summer.  Washington Post

China agrees to $400 million loan for Niger junta in exchange for oil.  Niger has signed a $400 million deal with Chinese state-owned oil giant China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) for the sale of crude oil from Niger’s Agadem oilfield.  Niger state television described the deal as a “lifeline” for Niger's military rulers, who recently cut ties with France and the U.S. and are grappling with the impact of sanctions over last year’s coup.  At the signing ceremony, Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine emphasized China's role as a “great friend to Niger.”  South China Morning Post  

UN rights chief says eastern Congo’s escalating violence is being forgotten by the world. The United Nations human rights chief, Volker Türk, expressed concern that the global community is neglecting the escalating violence in eastern Congo, overshadowed by conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.  There are over 120 armed groups vying for control of resource-rich regions.  The violence has displaced about 7 million people, many of whom are inaccessible to aid.  Türk emphasized the dire need for focused international support and peace efforts during his visit to Goma, where fighting with the M23 rebel group has intensified.  Associated Press 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Officials say that a 911 outage was reported across multiple US states.  Several U.S. states, including the entire state of South Dakota and parts of Nevada, Texas, and Nebraska, experienced a 911 emergency services outage late on Wednesday.  While services were restored in some areas, the cause of the outage remains unclear. This incident follows warnings from the Department of Homeland Security about increased cyberattack risks on digital 911 systems.  Reuters

Microsoft warns Russian influence operations targeting U.S. election have begun.  Microsoft reports that Russian online campaigns aimed at influencing the upcoming U.S. presidential election have begun, though at a slower pace compared to previous elections.  These efforts include the spreading of divisive content aimed at U.S. audiences, including criticism of U.S. support for Ukraine.  The most active campaigns appear to be linked to Russia’s Presidential Administration.  Microsoft warns that this activity could intensify in the coming months and highlighted concerns about the use of artificial intelligence in election interference, noting that simple digital forgeries are more common than deepfakes and that audio manipulations will have a bigger impact than video.  Reuters Bloomberg Microsoft

Russia’s Sandworm could be behind Texas water supply hack.  In January, the so-called Cyber Army of Russia Reborn (CARR) hacking group claimed responsibility for the hack of the water supply system of Muleshoe, Texas.  Cybersecurity firm Mandiant said on Wednesday that the hack may be linked to the Russian government-linked hacking group Sandworm.  According to Mandiant, social media accounts for CARR used servers and posted stolen Ukrainian government data associated with Sandworm.  While the Muleshoe hack did not cause casualties or significant service disruptions, it underscores the prospect of Sandworm broadening its targeting of U.S. critical infrastructure.  Washington Post 

Sandworm is top Russian cyber threat to Ukraine.  Sandworm hackers, which have been linked to Russia’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), remain the top cyber threat to Ukraine, according to Google’s Mandiant.  Researchers at Mandiant noted that Sandworm is engaged “in the full spectrum” of cyber attacks, from cyberespionage to influence operations, in contrast to more specialized Russian state-backed threat actors.  Researchers also said Sandworm appears to be integrated with Russian military activities in Ukraine, including hacks of the Ukrainian power grid.  The Record 

Ukraine's 1+1 media group satellite TV channels hit by cyberattack. Ukraine's 1+1 Media reported that its satellite TV channels, along with 38 others, were jammed due to a cyberattack targeting the Astra 4A 11766 H transponder. This incident caused outages across Europe, attributed by SES to "external radio frequency interference.” The satellites themselves remain safe. The interference follows similar disruptions that began in March, which have been part of ongoing cyberattacks against Ukraine since Russia's invasion in February 2022.  Reuters

UN agency says it was hit by ransomware attack.  The U.N. Development Programme confirmed on Wednesday that some of its data was stolen in a ransomware attack.  A spokesperson said that stolen data included “personally identifiable information of some past and current personnel and procurement information relating to some suppliers and other contractors.”  The spokesperson added that no ransom has or will be paid for the stolen data.  Two weeks ago, the 8Base ransomware gang claimed it attacked UNDP and threatened to leak data from the agency’s systems.  The Record 

Pakistan says it blocked social media platform X over ‘national security.’  Pakistan blocked access to social media platform X in February around the time of elections.  The interior ministry said the move was taken over national security concerns, adding that the platform failed to address the Pakistani government’s concerns of mis-use.  Those against the ban say it was designed to counter dissent after the elections, which was marred by opposition claims of vote rigging and protests.  Al Jazeera

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Brian Bonner, Katharine Campbell, and Leighton Durham contributed to this report.

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