Report for Thursday, April 11, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Russia launches massive air assault on Ukraine, destroys major Kyiv power plant

Israeli air strike in Gaza kills sons of Hamas political leader

Biden, Kishida meet to boost U.S.-Japan ties

House blocks vote on FISA Section 702 reauthorization

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE – Against Long Odds, Ukrainians Double Down and Hope for U.S. “Morale Boost”

THE ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israel air strike in Gaza kills three sons, four grandchildren of Hamas political leader.  Shehab news agency, Hamas’ official outlet, reported on Wednesday that an Israeli air attack killed three sons and three grandchildren of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. Later dispatches amended the toll of grandchildren to four, three girls and a boy, and said the brothers and their children were killed when Israeli missiles destroyed the car in which they were all riding, on their way to an Eid event in the Al-Shati refugee camp.  The elder Haniyeh, who lives in Doha, Qatar, instantly turned his personal tragedy to political advantage.  In a video posted on X by Al Jazeera, he declared, “I thank God for this honor that he bestowed upon us with the martyrdom of my three sons and some grandchildren.  In a telephone interview posted by Al Jazeera, he went on to say, “The criminal enemy is driven by the spirit of revenge and murder and does not value any standards or laws…The enemy believes that by targeting the families of the leaders, it will push them to give up the demands of our people. Anyone who believes that targeting my sons will push Hamas to change its position is delusional.”

The Israeli Defense Forces confirmed the targeted killings in posts on X. IDF spokesman Adm. Daniel Hagari said: “Earlier today, Air Force aircraft attacked three military operatives of the terrorist organization Hamas on their way to carry out terrorist activities in the central area of ​​the Gaza Strip. The three activists who were attacked are Amir Haniya, a squad commander in the military arm of Hamas, Muhammad Haniya, a military operative in the terrorist organization and Hazem Haniya, another military operative in the terrorist organization. The IDF confirms that the activists are three of the children of Ismail Haniya, the head of the political bureau of Hamas.”  A separate post on X under the official feed of the IDF said: “IAF aircraft struck Amir Haniyeh, a cell commander in the Hamas military wing, and Mohammad and Hazem Haniyeh, both Hamas military operatives, in central Gaza today. The IDF confirms that the 3 operatives are the sons of Ismail Haniyeh, the chairman of Hamas' political bureau.”  Neither IDF post mentioned the grandchildren.

The strike on the Haniyeh family was launched amid ongoing cease-fire negotiations among Israel, Hamas, and American, Egyptian and Qatari mediators. The Times of Israel, citing Hebrew-language media reports, reported Wednesday that the targeted attack, evidently a precision strike, was approved by a colonel in the IDF’s Southern Command and was not discussed in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet ahead of time.  The Times of Israel cited an unnamed “Israeli official” as saying that not even Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant were informed in advance of the strike. Whether that is true or an attempt to give Israeli leaders deniability, there’s no doubt that more blood will be shed. The Associated Press reported Wednesday that Israeli War Cabinet minister Benny Gantz declared, “From a military point of view, Hamas is defeated. Its fighters are eliminated or in hiding” and its capabilities “crippled.”  Even so, he said ominously, “Fighting against Hamas will take time. Boys who are now in middle school will still fight in the Gaza Strip.”  Wall Street Journal Washington Post Bloomberg BBC Al Jazeera France 24 Sky News Associated Press Associated Press Times of Israel

Biden: Gaza cease-fire talks ‘up to Hamas.’   President Joe Biden said Wednesday that the fate of the new Gaza ceasefire proposal presented to negotiators this week by CIA Director William Burns is “up to Hamas.”  “They need to move on the proposal that’s been made.  And as I said, it would get these hostages home where they belong but also bring back a six-week ceasefire that we need now,” Biden said.  He referred to reports that Hamas had rejected most of the U.S. cease-fire plan.  The Wall Street Journal reported that Hamas plans to put forward its own road map for a permanent end to the war with Israel.  The sides still seem far apart.  Israel has expressed openness to a temporary truce, and according to Reuters, has made an important concession by agreeing that up to 150,000 Palestinians would be allowed to return to homes in north Gaza with no security checks.  Israel has refused to consider another Hamas demand for a permanent cease-fire, because it would allow Hamas to reconstitute.  Another problem is the number and identities of remaining hostages. The Burns plan proposed to roll out the hostage releases in phases, with 40 women and sick and elderly men to be freed in the first phase, in exchange for 900 Palestinian prisoners. Other male civilians and soldiers would await a second phase.  Late Wednesday, Hamas leaders claimed that they didn’t have 40 hostages who met the first-phase criteria.  That statement suggested that more hostages are dead than previously known.   Wall Street Journal Wall Street Journal CNN   Reuters

Biden vows ‘ironclad’ support for Israel’s security in face of Iran threats.  In the face of escalating threats from Tehran, which has sworn vengeance for the Israeli air strike that killed top Iranian military officers in Damascus, President Joe Biden on Wednesday promised unwavering support for Israel.  “As I told Prime Minister Netanyahu, our commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad,” Biden said during a press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio.  “Let me say it again: ironclad.  We’re going to do all we can to protect Israel’s security.”  His Middle East envoy, Brett McGurk, called the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Iraq to ask them to deliver a message to their Iranian counterpart urging lowering of tensions with Israel, Axios reported Wednesday.    Axios The White House Bloomberg Reuters

Biden presses Netanyahu to surge aid to Gaza.   President Joe Biden said Wednesday that imminent threats from Iran won’t relieve Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of his responsibility to surge more humanitarian aid into Gaza.   “I have been very blunt and straightforward with the Prime Minister, as well as his War Cabinet, as well as the Cabinet,” Biden said Wednesday. “And the fact of the matter is that Bibi and I had a long discussion.  He agreed to do several things that related to, number one, getting more aid — both food and medicine — into Gaza, and reducing significantly the attempts — the civilian casualties in any action taken in the region. And the fact is…they’re getting in somewhere, in the last three days, over a hundred trucks.  It’s not enough.  But it needs to be — be more, and there’s one more opening [gateway] that has to take place in the north. So, we’ll see what he does in terms of meeting the commitments he made to me.”  Bloomberg Associated Press

Israel opening new aid crossing in northern Gaza.  Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel is opening up a new land crossing into Gaza to facilitate aid shipments to Palestinians from overseas or Jordan.  Israel is facing pressure to get more aid into Gaza to alleviate the humanitarian crisis in the enclave.  Israel has established two cargo crossings, recently said it will allow aid shipments at the Israeli port of Ashdod, and foreign countries have sent aid to Gaza via a maritime corridor and air drops.  Gallant said the new crossing will be on the northern part of Gaza border.  Reuters

Lebanese man accused of moving millions from Iran to Hamas shot dead.  Mohammad Surur, a Lebanese man sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department for allegedly funneling millions of dollars from Iran to Hamas was found dead in a mountain town outside Beirut, a security source told Reuters on Wednesday.  He was found with several gunshot wounds to his legs, a Lebanese security source said.  Surur worked in currency exchanges and money transfers, including between Iran-backed groups.  He was sanctioned in 2019 by the U.S. Treasury, which said he had transferred "tens of millions of dollars per year" between the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' external branch, the Quds Force, and Hamas's armed wing the Qassam Brigade.   Reuters Associated Press

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE – Against Long Odds, Ukrainians Double Down and Hope for U.S. “Morale Boost”

Switzerland to host Ukraine peace summit June 15-16. The Swiss government announced it will host a two-day high-level conference in June aimed at ending the Ukraine war.  The conference, which will be held on June 15-16 at the Bürgenstock resort near Lucerne, comes at the request of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and has garnered international support from the EU, G7 nations, China, and India.  Switzerland said the objective of the conference is to establish a framework for a comprehensive and lasting peace in Ukraine, as well as develop “a concrete roadmap for Russia's participation in the peace process.”  Russian officials have made clear they will not take part in the Swiss-hosted talks, accusing Switzerland of relinquishing its neutrality regarding the conflict.  Reuters Associated Press France 24

Russian missile strikes target cities across Ukraine, destroy largest thermal power plant in Kyiv region. Ukraine experienced a new round of Russian missile attacks early Thursday across its northeastern, southern, and western regions. The strikes targeted and damaged power grid infrastructure.  The Trypilska Thermal Power Plant, the largest in the Kyiv region, was destroyed overnight, delivering a major blow to the nation’s energy infrastructure.  Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and the western Lviv region, with local officials confirming the incidents and the activation of air defenses.  Ukraine’s military said Russia used 82 missiles and drones in total in the attacks.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the attacks acts of “terror” and called for “air defense and other defense support.”  Earlier Russian missile and drone attacks on Wednesday damaged Ukrainian energy facilities in the Black Sea regions of Odesa and Mykolaiv.  Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko said the attacks seek to cripple the country's energy capabilities.  Reuters CNN Bloomberg Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent

ISW: Ukraine’s thin air defenses may permit more Russian attacks. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported Wednesday that Ukraine's need to redistribute its scarce air defense resources to protect cities heavily targeted by Russia, like Kharkiv, could leave other areas vulnerable to Russian attacks. The recent intensification of attacks on Kharkiv, which has destroyed much of its energy infrastructure, prompted discussions on air defense reorganization. Any shift may stretch Ukraine's limited air defense capabilities further, allowing Russian forces to exploit these gaps. Despite efforts to bolster defenses, including a $138 million U.S. military sales package for missile system repairs, the ISW warns that these measures are insufficient against Russian attacks.  Kyiv Independent

Ukraine’s foreign minister demands more Patriot air defenses. Ukraine needs 26 Patriot air defense systems to defend all its territory. It only has 3. It seeks at least 7 to protect the largest cities and has identified over 100 available Patriots worldwide. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has run out of time to ask politely. “Nice and quiet diplomacy didn’t work,” Kuleba said, intensifying his call for the $1 billion Patriot air defense systems from Western allies. Kuleba expressed frustration over the slow pace of aid, saying the delays cost Ukrainian lives because of Russia’s unrelenting aerial bombardments. “Yes, people may hate me, and I may ruin the relationship,” Kuleba told the Washington Post. “The other part of me is saying diplomacy is all about private relations. But then I told that part to shut up, and the part of me that wanted to speak out started speaking up. We’ve tried everything, and nothing seems to work.” During a recent meeting in Brussels marking NATO’s 75th anniversary, Kuleba harshly told those in attendance: “I’m sorry to spoil the birthday party, but who can believe that the mightiest military alliance in the world cannot find seven batteries of Patriots to provide them to the only country in the world that is fighting ballistic attacks every day?” Washington Post The Hill Kyiv Independent  

General warns House on Ukraine: ‘The side that can’t shoot back loses’ In a blunt warning to U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, commander of U.S. Europe Command, highlighted the urgent need for additional U.S. support for Ukraine. Cavoli emphasized the imminent threat of Russia gaining a 10-1 artillery shell advantage "within weeks," which could lead to the collapse of Ukrainian forces if the nation runs out of artillery and air-defense munitions. "The side that can’t shoot back loses,” Cavoli told the House Armed Services Committee. “The stakes are very high.” Meanwhile, a $60 billion U.S. aid package remains stalled in the House.  Washington Post Reuters Stars and Stripes

Russian factories rush to buy drone defense from local suppliers. Russian companies are rapidly acquiring drone defense systems from local suppliers to counter Ukrainian drones that increasingly target vital industrial sites and oil refineries. Instead of relying on the military, tender data reveals that the demand for anti-UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) systems has quadrupled over the past year. While the electronic warfare market has seen "explosive growth," production struggles to meet demand. Electronic defenses are not invincible against UAV attacks but can limit damage. Bloomberg

Satellite imagery shows damage at Russian aircraft factory after reported drone strikes. Satellite imagery published Wednesday revealed damage to an aircraft factory in Russia's Voronezh Oblast, attributed to Ukrainian drone strikes. The factory, involved in missile repairs used against Ukraine, was one of several recent targets in Ukraine's intensification of strikes on Russian military and industrial sites. These operations have reportedly resulted in the loss of Russian military aircraft and casualties among soldiers, marking a strategic effort by Ukraine to impact Russia's military capabilities within its borders. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine, Latvia sign security agreement.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Latvian counterpart Edgars Rinkevics signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement while attending an international summit in Lithuania.  Latvia reportedly pledged to provide 0.25% of its GDP to assist Ukraine every year, as well as support Ukraine in cyber defense, demining, unmanned systems, and Kyiv’s EU and NATO ambitions.  Kyiv Independent

Germany sends new batch of military aid to Ukraine.  Germany has sent a new batch of military aid to Ukraine, including artillery shells, drones, armored vehicles, and other supplies. The latest delivery consists of 6,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition, over a million rounds of small arms ammunition, various rifles, and reconnaissance drones as part of a $540 million aid package announced in March. Berlin also sent 16 Vector drones, 30 RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance drones, and 30 frequency range extensions for anti-drone devices. From January 1st to March 27th, almost three-quarters of the $5.3 billion of military goods Germany exported was intended for Ukraine.  Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent 

EU finance ministers to discuss Ukraine reform plans.  European Union finance ministers are set to discuss reform plans and an investment agenda submitted by Ukraine this week as Kyiv seeks to secure funding.  Sources from the German finance ministry, speaking anonymously, welcomed Ukraine's “ambitious approach” which outlines 15 key areas and 69 reform plans. The sources did not provide further details on the specifics of Ukraine's reform proposals that the finance ministers will discuss.  Reuters Kyiv Independent 

German state-owned gas trader considering storing natural gas in Ukraine again.  SEFE, a German state-owned natural gas trader, said Wednesday that it is exploring the resumption of natural gas storage in Ukraine. Despite the risks of Russian attacks, SEFE's interest is driven by Ukraine's significant storage capacity—Europe's largest at 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) —and efforts to integrate Ukrainian gas with European networks. Ukraine aims to attract 4 bcm of gas storage from foreign traders this year, building on last year's 2.5 bcm. Kyiv Independent

Russian ex-warlord asks to fight in Ukraine.  Russian nationalist Igor Girkin, who was convicted of extremism, seeks to join the fight in Ukraine. Known for his role in instigating Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and developing Moscow's war strategy, Girkin was sentenced to four years by the Moscow City Court for inciting extremism. His military participation hinges on appealing his conviction, with a request already in place for him to serve as a Russian platoon commander in Donbas. The Hague has sentenced Girkin for downing Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 on July 17, 2014, killing all 298 passengers aboard.  Kyiv Independent 

The Americas

Biden and Kishida move to strengthen US-Japan ties.  On Wednesday, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida moved to strengthen defense cooperation aimed at improving Indo-Pacific security and countering China’s growing aggressiveness in the region. Discussions covered creating an expanded defense architecture with Australia, conducting three-way military exercises with Britain, and exploring Japan's cooperation with the AUKUS pact between the U.S., Australia, and Britain. In a joint news conference, Biden said Washington and Tokyo “are modernizing command and control structures and we’re increasing the interoperability and planning of our militaries so they can work together in a seamless and effective way.”

Overall, the U.S. and Japan hammered out about 70 agreements on defense cooperation. The advancements include forming an integrated air defense network that links Japanese, Australian, and U.S. sensors so that each country can have a full picture of airborne threats in the region. The U.S. and Japan will create a joint defense council that could support more exports of defense-related equipment produced in Japan. Kishida and Biden also discussed expanding the co-production of defense equipment. The Japanese already produce Patriot missiles under license from Raytheon and have committed to exporting several dozen to the United States to refill depleted stocks sent to Ukraine and other allies. Kishida made a point of reaffirming Japan’s strong support for Ukraine, saying: “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.” Biden also supported Japan’s attempts to set up a leader-to-leader summit with North Korea.

Officials also agreed on new cooperation on space ventures.  As part of this, the U.S. is reportedly seeking to take a Japanese astronaut to the moon under NASA’s Artemis program, marking the first time a non-American will land on the moon. The U.S. and Japan also agreed to collaboration between research institutions working on artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and clean energy, including a joint partnership to accelerate the development and commercialization of nuclear fusion. The two governments further supported a plan to build the first high-speed rail in the U.S., using Japanese bullet trains, linking the Texas cities of Dallas and Houston.

On Thursday, Biden and Kishida will meet Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. for the first-ever trilateral summit between their countries, as part of U.S. efforts to forge an alliance to counter China. The Philippines is eyeing around $100 billion in investment deals in the next five to 10 years, Manila’s presidential office said in a statement, quoting Philippine Ambassador to the United States Jose Manual Romualdez.  Wall Street Journal Washington Post Reuters Reuters Reuters Associated Press CNN New York Times Reuters

OPINION – No Substitute for Victory.  Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) and Matthew Pottinger, former Deputy National Security Advisor, write in Foreign Affairs about the Biden administration’s China policy, which they argue has prioritized short-term stability over long-term victory.  The pair say that China’s global initiatives to challenge the West must be met by a more confrontational approach instead of simply being managed.  Drawing parallels to the Cold War, they argue for rearming the military, reducing China’s economic leverage, and building coalitions with allies.  They add that the U.S. should recruit talented workers from allied countries and mobilize society to meet the threat from Beijing.  Foreign Affairs

US House blocks domestic surveillance bill after Trump's opposition. The U.S. House of Representatives voted 228-193 on a vote for the reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), leaving its future in limbo ahead of its expiration on April 19th. Former President Donald Trump spoke out against FISA in a post on TruthSocial, saying that “IT WAS ILLEGALLY USED AGAINST ME, AND MANY OTHERS.”  There is no evidence that the specific law at issue, Section 702, has been used to monitor Trump or his campaigns. House Speaker Mike Johnson, who supports the bill, said he would “reformulate another plan” without providing details.  He added: “We cannot allow [the authority] to expire. It's too important for national security.” Reuters New York Times CNN Politico Wall Street Journal 

China allegedly interfered with Canada’s elections.  Canadian intelligence alleges that China “clandestinely and deceptively” interfered in Canada's 2019 and 2021 federal elections, seeking to support candidates favorable to Beijing's strategic interests. The Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) reported that the activity aimed to discourage Canadians, particularly Chinese Canadians, from voting for the Conservative Party, which Beijing viewed as having an anti-China platform. The allegations are now at the center of a public inquiry in Ottawa, following reports last year about leaked intelligence documents claiming Chinese interference in the elections. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Wednesday that China did attempt to interfere in the elections, but the results were not impacted, and it was “improbable” that Beijing favored any one party in the votes.  Washington Post Reuters Al Jazeera

U.S. adds Chinese firms helping military modernization to export blacklist.  The US Department of Commerce placed four Chinese companies on an export blacklist for allegedly purchasing US-origin goods to aid China's military modernization efforts. The companies are reportedly involved in supplying AI chips to the Chinese military.  The designation imposes a "presumption of denial" for future export applications to these companies, hindering their ability to acquire US-made items.  Additionally, the Commerce Department imposed export bans on two other Chinese firms, one for allegedly supporting Russian military procurement and another for purportedly assisting Iran in acquiring components for unmanned aerial vehicles. Beijing has criticized these actions as attempts to hinder its development and harm its companies.  Reuters Bloomberg

Army pushes more safety training as helicopter crashes spike. The U.S. Army has ordered an aviation “safety stand up” and additional training across the force following a concerning number of mishaps and fatalities in the first half of the fiscal year. Since the start of 2024, the Army has already experienced 12 aviation mishaps resulting in 10 fatalities, matching or exceeding the total annual figures reported since fiscal 2016. 2024’s increase compares to only 10 mishaps and 14 fatalities for the entire fiscal 2023, prompting urgent action from Army aviation leadership.  Defense News

Australian Parliament wants WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange back home, not sent to US. President Joe Biden told reporters that he is considering Australia’s request to drop the prosecution of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, who is facing extradition to the U.S. for his release of U.S. classified documents.  Earlier this week, the Australian Parliament passed a motion calling for the return of Assange, an Australian citizen, from the U.K., where he awaits trial.  Assange’s extradition appeal hearing in the U.K. is set for next week.  Associated Press Associated Press Reuters BBC CNN The Guardian Al Jazeera

Creation of Haiti transitional council imminent, US says. Brian Nichols, U.S. assistant secretary for Western Hemisphere affairs, said Wednesday that Haiti’s transitional council, which will choose the country’s next leaders, could be established as early as this week.  Officials hope the council will help resolve Haiti’s political crisis to allow the country to better tackle rampant gang violence.  Associated Press

Asia and Oceania

Taiwan, China can peacefully resolve differences, ex-president says after meeting Xi.  Former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou expressed optimism that differences between Taiwan and China can be peacefully resolved.  Following his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Ma emphasized the cultural and historical ties shared by “the Chinese people” on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. He highlighted his hope that young Taiwanese could recognize these connections and urged peaceful handling of disputes. Xi had told Ma in their meeting that outside interference cannot stop the “family reunion” of China and Taiwan, referring to Beijing’s goal of reunification.  Reuters

Thai military step up patrols along Myanmar border as clashes continue. Thailand's military tightened security on Wednesday along its western border town of Mae Sot near Myanmar, where heavy fighting took place between anti-junta rebels and Myanmar's military.  Around 200 Myanmar military personnel withdrew to a border bridge to Thailand on Thursday after a days-long assault by rebels on the critical Myanmar border town of Myawaddy, which the resistance claims to have captured.  The Karen National Union (KNU) rebel group and its allies claimed last week that their troops had forced around 600 Myanmar security personnel and families to surrender after attacking a junta camp near Myawaddy.  Reuters Reuters Al Jazeera

Britain announces Indo-Pacific military exercises with US, Japan. The U.K. announced it will hold regular joint military exercises in the Indo-Pacific region with the United States and Japan starting in 2025, aiming to boost security in the area. The British Ministry of Defense said that conducting such joint drills sends “a strong message.” As part of the exercises, the Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales will be deployed to the Indo-Pacific region to carry out operations and exercises with allies. The carrier group's deployment will include a port visit in Japan, according to the Ministry of Defense. British Defense Minister Grant Shapps affirmed that the U.K.’s defense relationships are “not limited by distance.”  Reuters

North Korea leader Kim Jong Un says now is time to be ready for war.  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said unstable geopolitical situations in the region mean that North Korea must be prepared for war, KCNA state news agency reported on Thursday.  Kim’s comments came during a visit to the country’s main military university, where he told staff and students that “if the enemy opts for military confrontation with the DPRK, the DPRK will deal a death-blow to the enemy without hesitation by mobilizing all means in its possession,” according to KCNA.  Kim has supervised several military tests over recent months, which have been in response to U.S. and South Korea’s joint military drills.   Reuters

Europe

U.S. troop numbers in Eastern Europe could continue to grow. The number of U.S. and NATO troops stationed in Eastern Europe could increase in the coming years as threats from Russia continue to grow, according to officials.  Currently, there are around 100,000 U.S. service members stationed throughout Europe, including around 20,000 who were surged to countries like Poland and Romania after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.  Across Eastern Europe, about 40,000 NATO troops are also deployed to support security efforts.   Defense News

EU weighs NATO role to shield energy links from Russian attack. European Union ministers will convene next week to deliberate on NATO's potential role in safeguarding the continent's energy infrastructure amid threats highlighted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Belgium, currently leading the EU presidency, seeks input on how the military alliance could counteract threats like sabotage, cyber-attacks, and hybrid warfare. The discussions will also cover financing for cross-border infrastructure. The initiative is in response to Russia’s targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, as well as apparent sabotage attacks against EU energy assets. The meeting also underscores the urgency in enhancing energy security and reducing dependence on Russian fossil fuels while transitioning toward a digital and renewable energy grid.  Bloomberg

Migration pact hailed as 'huge' EU win, amid human rights fears The European Parliament on Wednesday granted final approval to the European Union’s comprehensive immigration and asylum pact, marking the largest revamp of the bloc's policies on this issue in over a decade. Set to be implemented in 2026, the pact includes 10 regulations and directives introducing new burden-sharing quotas among member states, with financial penalties for those refusing to accept their share. However, contributions towards enhancing border security in other EU countries can offset these penalties. Controversially, the pact allows for asylum seekers to be sent to “safe” third countries for their claims to be processed, echoing concerns similar to the UK's arrangement with Rwanda. It also formalizes the outsourcing of border control to countries like Morocco, Tunisia, Mauritania and Egypt through financial agreements. Despite criticism from civil society groups for potentially compromising human rights, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen praised the pact as a significant step towards a unified European approach to migration and asylum challenges. Von der Leyen said the pact will lead to "more secure European borders." EUObserver

German police arrest Iraqi couple suspected to be Islamic State members.  German police arrested an Iraqi couple accused of being Islamic State members.  They were specifically arrested on suspicion of genocide and crimes against humanity for enslaving two Yazidi girls between 2015 and 2017 in Iraq and Syria.  Prosecutors said the girls were physically abused, raped and banned from practicing their religion and that the couple handed the girls over to other IS members before leaving Syria.  Islamic State killed and displaced thousands of Yazidis and enslaved 7,000 Yazidi women and girls.  Reuters

Italian government halts plan to buy Israeli undersea drones. Italy has abruptly halted plans to purchase three BlueWhale undersea drones from an Israeli platform made by Elta Systems. The Italian parliament's defense committees were set to evaluate the proposal for $273 million from the defense ministry last week before it was unexpectedly withdrawn. The 5.5-tonne BlueWhale drones are designed for intelligence gathering, anti-submarine warfare and mine countermeasures, equipped with sonars, radar, and electro-optic capabilities. The program's withdrawal is attributed to concerns that Italian firms could entirely produce the technology without involving overseas companies. A second reason cited was the political sensitivity involved in buying Israeli defense products amid international outcry over Israel's military campaign in Gaza. While Italy's right-wing government is solidly pro-Israel, opposition members of parliament sitting on defense committees hail from parties critical of Israeli actions in Gaza.  Defense News

Middle East

Yemen's Houthis say they target four vessels in Gulf of Aden.  Yemen’s Houthis said on Wednesday that they targeted four vessels – three container ships and what the group described as a U.S. destroyer.  The U.S. military said it destroyed an inbound anti-ship ballistic missile over the Gulf of Aden that was likely targeting one of the commercial ships.  Reuters

Nuclear deal in tatters, Iran edges close to weapons capability.  Six years after the Trump administration withdrew from the Iran nuclear accord, Tehran is rapidly accumulating enriched uranium, some of it very close to weapons grade, the Washington Post reported.  For over a decade, the Fordow facility, embedded in a mountain in Iran's Great Salt Desert, has been central to international concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions. Recent inspections revealed accelerated uranium enrichment activities, moving closer to weapons-grade capabilities. This shift underscores Iran's progression beyond the limitations set by the 2015 nuclear deal, especially after the U.S. withdrawal in 2018 under President Donald Trump. The collapse of the nuclear deal has also hampered the International Atomic Energy Agency's monitoring capabilities. Iran now possesses enough highly enriched uranium for several bombs, with the potential for a nuclear device within months, the report says. The overall trend raises international alarm over the potential for a Middle Eastern arms race.  Washington Post

Lufthansa suspends Tehran flights as the Middle East is on alert for potential Iran attacks. Lufthansa said on Wednesday it had suspended flights to Tehran, citing concerns over potential Iranian retaliation for a suspected Israeli airstrike on Iran's embassy in Syria. This decision follows heightened regional tensions and a false report about Tehran's airspace closing for military drills. The move reflects broader anxieties following the April 1 airstrike in Damascus, which killed seven Iranian Revolutionary Guards. "We are constantly monitoring the situation in the Middle East and are in close contact with the authorities. The safety of our guests and crew members is Lufthansa's top priority," a spokesperson for the company told Reuters.  Reuters

Africa

US to make additional funding push in response to Sudan conflict. The U.S. plans to contribute over $100 million in additional funding to address the humanitarian crisis in Sudan, aiming to encourage a global response at a donor conference in Paris on April 15, a year after the country’s civil war began. U.S. Special Envoy Tom Perriello called for increased international priority on the Sudanese civil war, saying, "The international response has been pitiful. We're at 5% of the needed amount.” The conflict between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has led to the displacement of millions, widespread hunger, and violence, especially in Darfur. Peace talks remain uncertain. Reuters

Mali's junta suspends political party activities until further notice.  Mali government spokesperson Abdoulaye Maiga said the military junta indefinitely suspended all political party activities and politically associated organizations on Wednesday to maintain public order. Mali has been under military rule since August 2020 following the first of eight coups in West and Central Africa over four years, including in its neighbors Burkina Faso and Niger. Mali’s military rulers had promised to transition back to civilian governance by March 2024 after elections set for February 2023 were indefinitely postponed.  Reuters

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

First NRO satellite launch of new low-orbit constellation scheduled for May.  The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) plans to launch satellites to make up its operational proliferated constellation in May.  The NROL-146 mission from Vandenberg Space Force Base will be the first of six launches in 2024.  NRO’s principal deputy director Troy Meink said that that constellation, which is scheduled to be completed in 2028, “will increase timeliness of access, diversity of communication paths and enhance our resilience.”  The NRO previously launched demonstration satellites to verify cost and performance before fielding operational payloads, Meink said.  In recent years, the NRO has shifted from a small number of large intelligence-gathering satellites in high orbits to hundreds of smaller systems in low-Earth orbit. NRO Director Chris Scolese has said the office expects to quadruple the number of satellites it has in orbit.  Meink noted that technological advances have added to the NRO’s operational flexibility, adding “the significant decline and a cost to entry for launch has not only opened the market for new commercial space, … but it’s made new architecture approaches possible for us.”  DefenseScoop BreakingDefense DefenseNews DefenseOne

Israeli cyber chief notes tripling of Iran, Hezbollah cyberattacks since October 7.  Gaby Portnoy, the director general of the Israel National Cyber Directorate (INCD), reported this week that cyberattacks against Israel have tripled since October 7, with intensifying hacking operations by Iran and Hezbollah.  Addressing the 10^th Global Cybertech conference in Tel Aviv, Portnoy said “the attack intensity is higher than ever before with Iranian and Hezbollah groups cooperating to attack Israel in every sector.”  Portnoy said civilian hackers masquerading as a Tehran-based tech company are working for Iran’s intelligence ministry to carry out attacks, including an operation targeting the Ziv Medical Center in northern Israel in November.  The first three months after Hamas’ October 7 assault saw a surge in hacking operations, with more than 3,000 attacks recorded, 2.5 times greater than in previous years.  Nearly 800 of the attacks were described as having “significant potential for damage.”  Portnoy warned conference attendees of the broad reach of hostile cyber operations, noting that given Iran’s disruptive goals, “with one push of a button it is Israel, and tomorrow it can be anywhere else so we need to fight cyberterrorism together.”  Times of Israel

US Treasury's Adeyemo warns 'malign' actors are using virtual assets. The U.S. Treasury Department warned that terrorist groups, non-state actors, and adversaries could increasingly turn to virtual currencies and digital assets unless Congress approves new regulatory tools. In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo said groups like al-Qaeda, Hamas, Russia, and North Korea are finding ways to hide identities and move resources using virtual currencies. Adeyemo said that while Treasury has had some success in combating illicit finance in the digital ecosystem, more enforcement is needed to prevent such activities by “malign actors” with Congressional action to provide the necessary tools to combat illegal financial activities.  Reuters

Chinese military researchers discuss push for AI, space combat capabilities.  Spurred by Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s call for bold technological innovation, researchers affiliated with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have published articles citing the urgency of advances in naval and aerospace combat capabilities.  A Communist Party journal, Study Times, this week carried multiple articles by PLA researchers on the importance of AI in developing “new combat forces.”  This technology, the articles observed, will be a “key variable in changing the rules of war,” especially as an aid to military decision-making and enabling autonomous technologies such as maritime and aerial drones.  One article noted how “unmanned intelligent combat will deeply change the deployments of naval forces, prompting changes in battle concepts and accelerating the evolution of combat.”  Drone networks could perform key tasks in support of naval forces, ranging from inputs to situational awareness to processing data for “advanced algorithms related to adaptive command, assault and logistic chains.”  Aerial platforms could carry out a similar range of missions, including “air refueling, communications relays, electronic countermeasures for reconnaissance and surveillance, swarm bombing and decoy deployment.”  Another PLA researcher pointed to the growth of military mission areas, to include “electromagnetic space, cyberspace and aerospace” that represent “new frontiers of military struggle.”  The article also outlined circumstances that would compel modernization of Chinese space combat forces in order to “gain a great advantage in future military competitions.”  South China Morning Post

Congressional bill proposes intensified DoD development of quantum technologies.  A bill introduced by Republican legislators in the House and Senate proposes to speed up the Pentagon’s use of quantum information science for sensing, navigation, and computing applications.  The Defense Quantum Acceleration Act would mandate a new DoD quantum advisor role and lead to the establishment of a quantum center of excellence for quantum technologies judged to contribute to Pentagon “priorities and missions.”  China has outspent the DoD with quantum investments totaling $15 billion over the next five years compared to the Pentagon’s $700 million annual quantum budget.  While not requiring a matching DoD investment, the quantum act seeks to raise awareness of the technology’s potential for military applications.  The bill notes that the U.S. “must take immediate steps to ensure the United States is the first nation to reach quantum advantage” through rapid R&D and deployment of quantum capabilities to military components.  The legislation would expand the role of the DoD’s quantum advisor to include coordination with combatant commands and key allies and partners.  DefenseOne

Biden administration weighing ban on use in U.S. of Kaspersky software.  The Biden administration is making plans to ban the use of Kaspersky Lab cybersecurity software by U.S. companies and individuals over national security concerns.  The Commerce Department is reportedly crafting a directive that would prohibit the use of certain Kaspersky software in the United States, extending a ban that already applies to federal government agencies.

The measure will reportedly focus on Kaspersky’s anti-virus software.  Sources told CNN that one goal of the order would be to reduce risks to critical infrastructure.  Both the Commerce Department and Kaspersky Lab declined to comment on the possible software ban.  U.S. law would give Kaspersky Lab the right to appeal an “initial determination” by the Commerce Department recommending a ban prior to a final ruling being announced.  CNN

Russian test launches Angara-A5 space rocket.  Russia on Thursday test-launched its Angara-A5 rocket for the first time.  The rocket, Russia’s first post-Soviet space rocket, launched from the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Far East and successfully placed a test load in low orbit.  The launch had been delayed twice due to engine launch control system malfunctions.  The Angara launch vehicle can carry payloads weighing more than 20 tons into orbit.  Plans call for the Angara-A-5 to be the main launch vehicle for Russia’s lunar research program, which has also faced repeated delays and is reportedly years behind schedule.  Reuters

First phase of DoD Replicator program will include counter-drone systems.  The DoD Replicator program that plans to deliver drone capabilities in multiple domains to military units will also provide counter-drone assets, according to DefenseScoop.  The first tranche of the program, known as Replicator 1.1, focuses on more mature technologies such as Switchblade 600 kamikaze drones, which will be mass produced through the initiative.  Several anonymous sources described four technology categories featured in Replicator 1.1 selections, including Anduril’s Wide-Area Infrared System for Persistent Surveillance (WISP) technology, a counter-drone capability.  WISP provides AI-enabled “passive, full-motion, 360-degree wide-area high-quality imaging” for threat detection and situational awareness.  The WISP is described as a versatile asset with land, sea, and air applications that could support “border and base security, counter drone missions, and maritime surface threat detection.”  Other Replicator 1.1 categories include unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) and variable-range interceptors.  DefenseScoop

Multiple new AI model releases promise advanced capabilities.  A flurry of AI model releases is underway with OpenAI, Google, and French startup Mistral announcing new frontier models.  Meta said the third version of its Llama AI model will be released in the next several weeks.  It is expected to be offered in a smaller, less powerful version at first, leading up to a summertime release of Meta’s most advanced model.  Joelle Pineau, Meta’s vice president of AI research, said “we are hard at work in figuring out how to get these models not just to talk, but actually to reason, to plan…to have memory.”  The next version of GPT, which supports OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot, is expected to be unveiled soon.  OpenAI COO Brad Lightcap told the Financial Times that “we’re going to start to see AI that can take on more complex tasks in a more sophisticated way.  I think we’re just starting to scratch the surface on the ability that these models have to reason.”  Google’s Gemini Pro 1.5 and OpenAI’s GPT-4 Turbo systems are multimodal and can process images as well as text.  Mistral’s Mixtral 8x22B is an open-source model that allows unrestricted development by users, a capability that has been criticized as potentially dangerous.  The Guardian Financial Times TechCrunch

Report Info

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Ken Hughes, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Brian Bonner, Katharine Campbell, and Leighton Durham contributed to this report.

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion in The Cipher Brief