Report for Sunday, October 6, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Heavy strikes shake Beirut as Israel expands Lebanon campaign

Ukraine left in security limbo with Zelensky U.S. trip results unclear

Gonzalez says he will return to Venezuela to take office in January 

America is losing Southeast Asia to China

Former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg: ‘So far, we have called Putin’s bluff’

AI startups ride on investor frenzy to raise billions in 2024

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

One Year Later, Reflections on the Terror of October 7 – and the Wars That Followed.The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Heavy strikes shake Beirut as Israel expands Lebanon campaign. Israel intensified its military campaign in Lebanon Saturday and Sunday, launching heavy strikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, and the northern city of Tripoli. The strikes follow the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Sept. 27. Hashem Safieddine, his potential successor, has been unreachable since Friday after an Israeli airstrike near Beirut’s airport. Israeli airstrikes have killed at least 440 Hezbollah fighters and destroyed over 2,000 targets, while Hezbollah has retaliated with missile fire. Civilian casualties are mounting, with hundreds of Lebanese killed and 1.2 million displaced. A strike in Tripoli also killed a Hamas leader and his family. As the anniversary of Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel approaches, tensions escalate. Iran, backing Hezbollah and Hamas, launched missiles at Israel on Oct. 1, prompting concerns over Israeli retaliatory strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure. Reuters New York Times Associated Press BBC 

At least 24 killed after Israeli forces strike Gaza Mosque, school. Palestinian medical officials revealed that an Israeli airstrike killed at least 18 people and left 93 wounded in central Gaza on Sunday, targeting a mosque and a school sheltering displaced individuals close to the al-Aqsa Martyrs hospital in Deir al-Balah. All the victims were men, with two others critically wounded. The Israeli military released a statement saying that it carried out "precise strikes on Hamas terrorists" who had stationed themselves and were running operations in command-and-control centers located in Ibn Rushd School and the Shuhada al-Aqsa Mosque. The Palestinian death toll in Gaza is approaching 42,000. Associated Press Reuters South China Morning Post 

How Israel Could Retaliate Against Iran. Israel has several options to retaliate against Iran following recent missile strikes. One option is targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure, including refineries and export terminals, which could damage Iran’s economy and disrupt global oil markets. Another option is striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, although this would be difficult due to their deep underground locations and strong defenses, potentially requiring U.S. support, which President Joe Biden has opposed. Israel may also deploy long-range air strikes or use its Jericho ballistic missiles to target key sites in Iran, including military installations and nuclear infrastructure. New York Times CNN

Iranian Missiles Overwhelmed Israeli Defenses at Some Sites, Analysts Say. Iran's Oct. 1            ballistic missile barrage on Israel overwhelmed air defenses in certain areas. Over 180 ballistic missiles were launched, with satellite imagery confirming that at least 32 struck Israel’s Nevatim Air Base. Though the damage was minimal, the attack demonstrated that Iran could potentially cause more harm by targeting civilian infrastructure. Iran's latest strike is seen as retaliation for Israel's assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Sept. 27. Israel is expected to retaliate, targeting Iran's missile production facilities and key infrastructure. Experts warn that Iran’s missile arsenal may not suffice in deterring Israel, pushing Tehran toward riskier strategies, potentially even considering nuclear deterrence. Wall Street Journal Washington Post

Mossad’s pager operation: Inside Israel’s penetration of Hezbollah. Israel’s Mossad orchestrated a covert operation by tricking Hezbollah into purchasing booby-trapped Apollo AR924 pagers. These devices, marketed as robust, untraceable communication tools, were handed out to over 5,000 Hezbollah operatives in 2023. Unbeknownst to Hezbollah, the pagers contained hidden explosives and a two-step decryption process that forced users to hold the device with both hands, maximizing injuries when detonated. On Sept. 17, 2024, Mossad triggered these devices remotely, killing or injuring up to 3,000 Hezbollah members, primarily rear-echelon figures, along with an unknown number of civilians. This operation, one of Mossad's most complex and secretive, demonstrated an unprecedented penetration of Hezbollah’s ranks. The ensuing fallout intensified hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, with retaliatory missile strikes from Iran and fears of wider regional conflict. Washington Post

Widening Mideast Conflict Exposes Limits of US Leverage with Israel. As Israel escalates its fight against Iran, the U.S. is finding its leverage with its close ally limited. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to bomb Beirut, killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, triggered an Iranian missile barrage on Israel. The Biden administration, blindsided by the Israeli actions, now faces a precarious situation, balancing risks of a wider war with an upcoming U.S. election. While Washington wants to avoid escalation, Israel views this moment as an opportunity to weaken Iran and its proxies. Bloomberg

Biden Discourages Israel from Attacking Iran’s Oil Fields. President Joe Biden has urged Israel to reconsider any plans to strike Iran’s oil fields in response to Tehran’s missile barrage. Biden's caution stems from concerns that such an escalation could disrupt global oil markets and worsen regional tensions, especially before the U.S. election. Despite Israel's ongoing retaliation against Hezbollah, Biden is pushing for alternatives to targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump advocates for a stronger response, including strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Bloomberg

U.S. strikes Houthi targets in Yemen as fears grow of wider Mideast war. The U.S. military launched strikes Friday on 15 Houthi targets in Yemen as part of broader efforts to secure navigation in the Red Sea. This action follows heightened tensions after Iran’s missile attack on Israel earlier in the week. The Iranian-backed Houthis have been attacking merchant vessels and U.S. naval ships, citing support for Palestinians. The strikes came amidst growing fears of a wider Middle East conflict, with U.S. President Joe Biden emphasizing the right of Israel to respond to regional threats from groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Financial Times 

Hezbollah has lost contact with possible Nasrallah successor, a source says. Hezbollah has lost contact with Hashem Safieddine, a potential successor to its late leader Hassan Nasrallah, after an Israeli strike in Beirut's southern suburbs on Friday, a Lebanese security source told CNN. Safieddine, head of Hezbollah’s executive council and Nasrallah's cousin, was considered a likely heir. The U.S. designated Hezbollah as a terrorist organization in 1997 and Safieddine as a terrorist in 2017. His fate remains unclear following the strike. CNN Reuters

ANALYSIS–What Hamas misunderstood about the Middle East. Hamas's Oct. 7 attack on Israel, which killed over 1,100 Israelis, sparked a catastrophic war in the Middle East, leading to unprecedented regional violence. However, Hamas’s expectations of support from its allies, particularly Hezbollah, were largely unmet. Hezbollah hesitated, and Hassan Nasrallah’s assassination in September 2024 weakened the group. Iran and its proxies, unprepared for long-distance conflict, have also been diminished. Meanwhile, Arab states avoided involvement, focusing on regional stability. This has shifted the region’s dynamics, leaving Iran vulnerable and offering a chance for Lebanon to reform its political system. The Economist

How Hamas built an underground war machine to ensure its own survival. Hamas has developed an extensive underground tunnel network in Gaza, transforming it into a military infrastructure to support its self-sufficient war machine. Led by Yahya Sinwar, the group meticulously planned for its survival by stockpiling weapons, food, and provisions within this maze of tunnels. This underground system functions as armories, supply routes, and command centers. Despite facing Israeli airstrikes and a ground invasion after the Oct. 7, 2023, attack, in which Hamas killed around 1,200 people and took hostages, the group remains entrenched. Israeli forces discovered that up to 80% of Hamas’s weapons were made locally in Gaza, complicating efforts to dismantle the group's capabilities. Though diminished, Hamas continues to fight, relying on its tunnel system and a wave of recruits seeking revenge for the destruction in Gaza. Analysts warn that the group is shifting toward insurgent tactics. Washington Post.

ANALYSIS–What an Escalating Middle East Conflict Could Mean for the Global Economy. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, marked by Iran's missile barrage on Israel and discussions about targeting Iran's oil infrastructure, poses serious risks to the global economy, particularly through potential oil price spikes. While Iran produces 2% of the world’s oil, the biggest threat would be Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for 20% of global oil shipments. Although markets had previously remained calm, recent developments include rising oil prices and investor hedging. New York Times

ANALYSIS–How Netanyahu is ‘running rings’ around Biden. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has managed to sidestep U.S. President Joe Biden’s advice, particularly regarding Middle Eastern strategy, which could influence the U.S. election. Netanyahu has consistently disregarded Biden’s counsel on issues like escalation with Iran and Hezbollah, maintaining military dominance. Biden, focused on disengaging from Middle Eastern conflicts, now faces potential political consequences as Israeli actions could raise oil prices and affect U.S. voter sentiment. With Netanyahu now politically thriving, Biden’s inability to rein in Israeli actions threatens his legacy and U.S. policy in the region. Financial Times

ANALYSIS–What Israel Has Lost. The Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led massacre in Israel marked a critical moment in Israeli history, paralleling 9/11 in its devastation. The attack, backed by Iran, is part of a broader strategy by Tehran to undermine Israel, dominate the Middle East, and challenge Western power. The war has further revealed Israel’s vulnerability, as it struggles with leadership failures, a lack of international legitimacy, and growing internal divisions. Israel’s recent military successes in Lebanon, while restoring some deterrence, have not addressed the deeper strategic issues. To secure long-term stability, Israel must rebuild alliances, focus on peace efforts, and counter Iran’s regional ambitions. Foreign Affairs

Murder for hire: Inside Iran’s proxy war with Israel in the West. Iran has intensified its proxy war against Israel in the West through a wave of assassination and kidnapping plots targeting Israeli and Jewish interests. Since 2020, at least 33 such attempts have been linked to Iran, with incidents occurring in the U.S. and Europe. One case in Greece involved Sayed Fakhar Abbas, a Pakistani man who recruited Syed Irtaza Haider to attack a Jewish center in Athens. Haider, however, stalled the plan, hoping to get paid without carrying out the attack. Greek authorities dismantled the plot, arresting Haider and another suspect. Iranian officials deny involvement, but analysts point to a pattern of hired assassins being used to obscure links to Tehran. Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine left in security limbo with Zelensky U.S. trip results unclear. Ukraine remains in a precarious position following President Volodymyr Zelensky’s U.S. visit, where his “victory plan” for ending the war with Russia was presented but yielded unclear results. The plan, which includes accelerated NATO membership or security guarantees, has not gained traction in Washington, leaving Kyiv uncertain about continued U.S. support. Zelensky faced political pushback, particularly from Republicans, and did not secure longer-range missile provisions. With the U.S. election looming, future aid remains uncertain. As Ukraine’s battlefield struggles continue and public sentiment shifts, the country faces mounting pressure to secure more concrete Western backing. Washington Post

Putin Abandons Peace Talks, Seeks to Destroy Ukrainian State After Kursk Incursion. According to Poyasnitelnaya Zapiska (Explanatory Note) news outlet, Russian President Vladimir Putin has abandoned peace talks with Ukraine following Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region, which he views as a personal humiliation. The operation derailed potential de-escalation talks that were nearly finalized in August, including mutual restrictions on energy strikes. Putin now sees no room for negotiations, believing Ukraine used peace talks as a cover for military action. Kremlin insiders suggest that any further escalation, particularly if Ukraine receives Western missiles to strike inside Russia, will completely end hopes for peace, with Putin determined to destroy Ukraine's statehood. Moscow Times

Ukraine’s Donbas Strategy: Retreat Slowly and Maximize Russia’s Losses. Ukraine's Donbas strategy involves slow retreats while inflicting maximum losses on Russian forces, aiming to exhaust their manpower and resources. Facing a superior Russian army in terms of numbers and firepower, Ukraine uses "rope-a-dope" tactics, retreating from key cities like Vuhledar only after heavy Russian losses. The strategy, described as "trading space for Russian losses," aims to wear down Russian forces, hoping they will eventually be unable to sustain the war. While Russia's relentless advances continue, Ukrainian officials believe their attrition tactics could break Russia's capacity before Ukraine is overwhelmed. New York Times

Russian drone attacks against Ukraine reach record levels, but experts warn of worse to come. In September 2024, Russia launched daily drone attacks on Ukraine for the first time since the invasion began, using 1,339 Shahed-type drones. Of these, 1,107 were intercepted, while the rest crashed or went unaccounted for. These drones have primarily targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, aiming to weaken air defenses ahead of larger attacks as winter approaches. Experts caution that Russia is probing Ukraine’s defenses with these cost-effective drones, paving the way for more sophisticated missile strikes. Ukraine faces the dilemma of conserving expensive interceptor missiles for larger threats while continuously combating drones. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal warned of imminent mass strikes. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine hits ammunition depots with domestic weapons in an attempt to disrupt Russia's logistics. Ukraine has escalated drone attacks on Russian ammunition depots, targeting logistics to disrupt Russia’s operations. Recent strikes in Tikhoretsk and Toropets destroyed stockpiles, including 30,000 tons of ammunition, hurting Russia's ability to supply frontline troops. With Ukraine’s rapid increase in drone production, these strikes expose Russia’s weak air defenses, which struggle to cover vast territory. Disrupting logistics delays ammunition supply to the front, weakening Russian offensives. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 4, injure 30 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed four people and injured 30 over the past day, authorities said Sunday. Two people died in Donetsk Oblast: one in Velyka Novosilka and another in Toretsk. A man was killed in Kharkiv Oblast when a Russian drone struck a car near Nyzhche Solone. In Kherson Oblast, a man was killed in Velentenske. The attacks also injured civilians across several regions, including Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa, damaging homes and infrastructure. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine downs a Russian warplane and Russia claims gains in the east. On Saturday, Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian fighter plane near Donetsk Oblast’s Kostiantynivka. Russia, in turn, claimed to have captured the village of Zhelanne Druhe following Ukraine's recent withdrawal from Vuhledar after a two-year defense. Meanwhile, two civilians were killed in Russian shelling in Zaporizhzhia, and nine were injured by a Ukrainian drone strike on a bus in Horlivka, a city in the Russian-occupied Donetsk region. Associated Press

Zelensky visits the Sumy region bordering Russia's Kursk province. President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Sumy Oblast on Friday, meeting soldiers of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade and commanders involved in Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast. Since Ukraine’s cross-border operation began in August, Ukraine has captured around 100 Russian settlements. Zelensky emphasized the strategic importance of the Kursk operation, highlighting its role in boosting support from international partners. The president also discussed regional defenses, infrastructure, and energy security. Meanwhile, Russia has intensified strikes on Sumy and made gains elsewhere, including near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar. Reuters Kyiv Independent

Zelensky to present 'victory plan' at Ramstein meeting. On Oct.  12, Ukraine will present its "victory plan" at a meeting of allies in Ramstein, Germany, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday. The plan, aimed at achieving a just end to the war, has already been shared with U.S. President Joe Biden and the two U.S. presidential candidates. While the U.S. State Department called it "productive," The Wall Street Journal reported that some officials believe it primarily requests more weapons and lifting restrictions on long-range missiles. Reuters

Ukraine scrambles for resources before uncertain US elections. Ukraine is racing to secure as much military aid as possible ahead of the U.S. elections and the Oct. 12 Ramstein meeting of defense leaders.  President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that Kyiv expects concrete actions, including permission to use Western weapons for strikes deep inside Russia. Ukraine is heavily reliant on long-range tactics to compensate for being outgunned. Signs suggest Russia's Soviet-era arsenal is depleting, but experts say time remains on Russia's side. The U.S. elections add uncertainty, with Ukraine needing Western support to maintain its fight. Kyiv Independent

Car Bomb Kills Security Chief at Ukraine’s Russian-Held Nuclear Plant. On Friday, a car bomb killed Andriy Korotkyy, the pro-Russian security chief at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar, Ukraine. Ukrainian military intelligence claimed responsibility, calling Korotkyy a "war criminal" for aiding Russian occupation forces by sharing personal data of pro-Ukrainian employees. Korotkyy had organized pro-Russian events and served as a member of Enerhodar’s Moscow-installed council. The bombing is part of Ukraine's efforts to target collaborators in Russian-controlled territories. The plant, Europe's largest, has been under Russian control since March 2022, raising global concerns about its safety due to ongoing attacks and shelling. Reuters PoliticoEU RFE/RL Al Jazeera Moscow Times Kyiv Independent Bloomberg

Half of Russia's shells used in Ukraine are supplied by North Korea. North Korea now supplies roughly half of the artillery shells used by Russia in its war against Ukraine, according to Western intelligence reports. Despite many shells being faulty, North Korean shipments—estimated at around 3 million annually—have played a vital role in sustaining Russia’s war effort, including recent gains like the capture of Vuhledar in Donetsk. With its ammunition stocks depleted, Russia has turned to Pyongyang as its primary arms supplier. In return, Moscow has reportedly provided North Korea with advanced military technology, including spy satellites, tanks, and aircraft. This deepening partnership, formalized in June 2024, strengthens Kim Jong Un’s ambitions while raising concerns over further destabilization in Ukraine and Asia. Foreign Policy Kyiv Independent

Estonia says Ukraine may be forced to retreat from Pokrovsk by the end of 2024. Ukrainian forces may be forced to retreat from Pokrovsk by the end of 2024 due to intensified Russian offensives, Estonian military intelligence said Friday. Russian troops have advanced 1-2 kilometers closer to the city, now just 5-7 kilometers from its outskirts. Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub in Donetsk Oblast, faces daily assaults, with nearly half of all frontline attacks concentrated on this sector. Similarly, Ukraine recently withdrew from Vuhledar after enduring sustained Russian attacks. Kyiv Independent Ukrainska Pravda

Russia knocked out most of the infrastructure in Ukraine's Pokrovsk. The head of Pokrovsk's military administration reported Friday that Russian forces had destroyed around 80% of the critical infrastructure in the town of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub in Ukraine's Donetsk region. Russian troops, located about 7 kilometers from the town, have intensified assaults, leaving much of the area without power, water, or gas. Pokrovsk and surrounding villages have suffered repeated attacks on energy facilities, making repairs nearly impossible. The Ukrainian military manages evacuations, with around 13,050 residents remaining in the town. Reuters

Swiss ambassador explains why his country attended the China-Brazil meeting on a peace plan for Ukraine. Swiss Ambassador to Ukraine, Felix Baumann, clarified that Switzerland participated as an observer in the China-Brazil meeting on a peace plan for Ukraine but did not sign any communiqué. He emphasized that Switzerland’s stance on resolving Russia’s military aggression remains unchanged, insisting on respect for international law, the United Nations Charter, and Ukraine's territorial integrity. Switzerland attended the meeting to evaluate all peace plans consistent with these principles, though it did not endorse the proposal. Baumann reiterated that no decisions about Ukraine should be made without its involvement, maintaining Switzerland’s commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty. Ukrainska Pravda

​​Russia Quietly Closes In on Putin's First Major Goal in Ukraine. Russian forces now control 98.8% of Ukraine's Luhansk region, according to Angelica Evans, a researcher with the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Despite this progress, the gains are largely symbolic, with little strategic impact on the overall war. Russian advances in Luhansk, including the capture of Makiivka, will likely be used by the Kremlin for propaganda purposes as it pushes to control the remaining territory. Newsweek

Ukraine's Defense Procurement Agency purchased weapons through specialized importers at inflated prices. An investigation by Ukrainska Pravda revealed that Ukraine’s Defense Procurement Agency (DPA), established to ensure transparency and prevent corruption, has been overpaying for arms via special exporters like SpetsTechnoExport. Contracts signed by the DPA resulted in inflated costs, missed deadlines, and incomplete deliveries, causing financial losses while Ukraine's armed forces face critical shortages. Some contracts exceeded market prices by millions of euros, with an estimated €200 million discrepancy in 2023 alone. Exposing and combating corruption in defense procurement is vital for maintaining trust, ensuring accountability, and effectively supporting Ukraine’s war efforts. Ukrainska Pravda

Ukraine's Defense Intelligence's specialized importer company owes the state $19 million. The arms-importing company SpetsTechnoExport, controlled by Ukraine's Defense Intelligence since 2022, owes over $19 million to the state due to inflated arms purchase contracts and unfulfilled orders. This debt, recognized by Ukrainian courts, represents only a portion of the company’s liabilities. Despite receiving state funds, SpetsTechnoExport failed to deliver essential weapons, leading to delays and court disputes. The company has refunded $218,000 but continues to face numerous lawsuits. These issues have raised concerns about transparency in Ukraine’s arms procurement process. Ukrainska Pravda

2 Ukrainian regional officials suspected of war-related corruption, nearly $6 million found. Ukrainian law enforcement uncovered nearly $6 million in cash at the homes of two officials from Khmelnytskyi Oblast suspected of corruption. The head of the Khmelnytskyi Regional Center for Medical and Social Expertise and her son, a senior official in the Pension Fund, allegedly forged documents to falsely register disabilities for men evading military service. Authorities also found luxury goods, properties, and foreign bank accounts, all undeclared. Corruption during wartime undermines trust, diverts critical resources, and weakens Ukraine’s defense efforts. The officials could face up to 12 years in prison. Kyiv Independent

Russia retrains ex-soldiers heading back to the battlefield. Russia is retraining ex-soldiers, like "Mara," a former driver and foundry worker who rejoined the army nearly 20 years after his initial service. Recruits undergo assault training in the Rostov region, practicing rifle firing and the storming of buildings. To replenish its forces without compulsory mobilization, Russia offers bonuses of up to $20,000 to attract volunteers. President Vladimir Putin has ordered an increase of 180,000 troops, aiming for a 1.5 million-strong army. Reuters

Kremlin accuses Ukraine of 'playing with fire' after reported attack near Kursk nuclear plant. The Kremlin accused Ukraine of "playing with fire" after a Ukrainian drone was reportedly intercepted near the Kursk nuclear power plant on Thursday. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressed concerns to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), while Ukrainian authorities denied targeting the plant. The incident occurred amid Ukraine's cross-border incursion into Russia's Kursk region, which began in August 2024. No significant damage to the nuclear plant has been reported, but tensions continue over security. Reuters

Russia has summarily executed at least 93 Ukrainian POWs on the battlefield. According to Ukraine’s Prosecutor General's Office, Russia has summarily executed at least 93 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) during the full-scale invasion, with 80% of these cases occurring in 2024. Yurii Belousov, head of the war crimes department, reported that Russia’s treatment of POWs worsened since November 2023. The largest recorded execution occurred on Oct. 1, 2024, when 16 Ukrainian POWs were shot in Donetsk Oblast. Other POWs have died in Russian detention due to torture and inadequate care. "The murders and torture of prisoners are not an accident, but a purposeful policy of the Russian military and political leadership," Prosecutor General Andrii Kostin said. Kyiv Independent

Years after his capture in Mariupol, his family received only his broken body. The case of Oleksandr Ishchenko, a Ukrainian POW who died in Russian captivity, symbolizes the suffering of families seeking news about missing loved ones during the war. After 2½ years of waiting, his broken and decayed body was returned, reflecting fears over the brutal treatment of Ukrainian prisoners in Russia. With over 177 Ukrainian POWs reported dead and many tortured, this case underscores the broader issue of mistreatment, lack of transparency, and the emotional toll on families. Washington Post

Romania finds Russian drone fragments near Ukraine border. Romania recovered fragments from a Russian drone from a canal in the Danube Delta near the Ukrainian border, the defense ministry said on Friday. Romania shares a 400-mile border with Ukraine and has had Russian drone fragments stray into its territory repeatedly over the past year. Romanian territory lies a few hundred meters from Ukrainian Danube River ports, frequent Russian targets. Reuters

Ukraine’s Gas-Storage System Remains Fully Operational Despite Russian Attacks, Naftogaz CEO Says. Ukraine’s gas storage system, managed by state-owned Naftogaz, remains fully operational despite Russian missile and drone attacks, CEO Oleksiy Chernyshov said Friday. Ukraine operates Europe’s largest gas storage network, with a capacity of 31 billion cubic meters. Foreign gas storage, however, has sharply declined from 2.5 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 0.5 billion cubic meters in 2024 due to market conditions. Wall Street Journal

ANALYSIS–Behind Trump’s Views on Ukraine: Putin’s Gambit and a Political Grudge. Donald Trump’s animus toward Ukraine, stemming from events in 2016 and 2017, holds consequences if he is reelected. During his presidency, Trump developed a disdain for Ukraine, fueled by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s influence and Trump’s belief that Ukrainian officials supported Democrats. This culminated in Trump's first impeachment and has shaped his foreign policy views. Trump’s skepticism of Ukraine could lead to reduced U.S. support for Kyiv, undermining Ukraine’s resistance to Russian aggression and destabilizing Europe. His favorable stance toward authoritarian leaders like Putin poses further risks. New York Times

How Russia Invaded Wikipedia To Rewrite Ukraine War History. Russia has launched an alternative version of Wikipedia, Ruwiki, as part of its digital campaign to control narratives about its war on Ukraine. Ruwiki, developed after the Kremlin’s manipulation of Russian-language Wikipedia, rewrites history to favor the Kremlin’s version of events, downplaying Russian war crimes and misrepresenting Ukraine’s territorial integrity. This platform is part of Russia’s broader disinformation efforts, which also include the destruction of Ukrainian books and propaganda in Russian schools. The goal is to reshape public perception, especially among Russian youth, to justify its invasion and dominate Ukraine.  Foreign Policy

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Oct. 4-5, 2024. Russia plans to allocate $948 million for one-time payments to military recruits between 2025 and 2027, signaling a reliance on crypto-mobilization to meet manpower needs in Ukraine. The Russian government revised its plan to deanonymize social media accounts after backlash from the ultranationalist information space. A Ukrainian missile strike near Donetsk reportedly killed several North Korean military officials, deepening North Korean involvement in the war. Ukrainian forces struck a fuel storage facility in Anna, Voronezh Oblast on Thursday-Friday.

Battlefield update:  Russian forces advanced in Vovchansk, near Kreminna, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City. Institute for the Study of War-Saturday  Institute for the Study of War-Friday

AMERICAS

Trump returns to site of assassination attempt, rallies Pennsylvania crowd. GOP nominee Donald Trump returned to Butler, Pennsylvania for a rally on Saturday, revisiting the site where he was nearly assassinated in the summer. During the rally, which comes one month before the Nov. 5 election, Trump referenced the July 13 shooting incident, in which he was grazed by a bullet and one spectator was killed. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, a key supporter of the Trump administration, joined the former president on stage to rally voters, calling the election a "must-win" for Trump. The event was heavily secured, with additional measures put in place following the shooting. The Secret Service had faced severe criticism after the July incident, resulting in bolstered security protocols for Trump. Reuters The Guardian Associated Press Politico 

Haitian gang attacks small town, slaughters at least 70 people as thousands flee area. Gang violence in Haiti escalated as members of the Gran Grif gang slaughtered at least 70 people in Pont-Sonde, an agricultural hub in the Artibonite region, forcing over 6,000 to flee. Thursday's attack is part of ongoing gang conflicts that have ravaged the country, particularly in the capital Port-au-Prince. Gang leader Luckson Elan claimed responsibility, blaming civilians for supporting police and vigilante efforts against his forces. The violence exacerbates Haiti’s already dire humanitarian crisis, with widespread food insecurity, famine, and displacement. Despite international pledges of support, Haiti’s police remain under-resourced, and justice for past massacres remains elusive. Reuters BBC Deutsche Welle 

ANALYSIS–What's behind the escalating violence in Haiti? Haiti’s escalating violence, highlighted by the recent massacre in Pont-Sonde, reflects the deepening control of gangs. At least 70 people were killed by the Gran Grif gang, led by Luckson Elan, in retaliation for local support of vigilantes resisting extortion. Gangs have expanded their influence since the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, filling a power vacuum left by a weakened government. The Haitian police force, severely understaffed and outgunned, struggles to contain the growing number of armed groups. Reuters

Biden, Mexico's Sheinbaum talk economic, trade cooperation. U.S. President Joe Biden and newly inaugurated Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum discussed economic and trade cooperation in a phone call on Friday. Biden congratulated Sheinbaum, Mexico's first female president, and emphasized the strong partnership between the two countries. Sheinbaum highlighted bilateral cooperation on economic, cultural, and trade matters. Reuters Barron's White House 

U.S. Supreme Court considering Mexico’s $10 billion lawsuit against American gun makers.The U.S. Supreme Court will decide whether to block Mexico’s $10 billion lawsuit against prominent American gun manufacturers, who have been accused of enabling gun trafficking that has fueled violence in Mexico. The lawsuit claims the companies, including Smith & Wesson, Beretta, and Glock, knowingly sold weapons that were smuggled into Mexico by traffickers. A district court initially dismissed the case, citing legal protections for gunmakers, but an appeals court revived it under an exception. The gunmakers have asked the Supreme Court to overturn this ruling, arguing they followed lawful practices and should not face liability. Associated Press New York Times CNN Politico   

Ex-presidential candidate Gonzalez says he will return to Venezuela to take office in January. Former Venezuelan presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez declared his intention Friday to return to Venezuela on Jan. 10 to assume office as the elected president. Speaking at a business event in Spain, Gonzalez, who fled Venezuela on Sept. 9 after an arrest warrant was issued against him, reiterated his stance that the 2024 election was rigged in favor of incumbent President Nicolas Maduro. Gonzalez, supported by the opposition, claims he won the election decisively. He expressed his commitment to restoring democracy upon his return. Reuters Bloomberg 

U.S. will not renew the legal status for hundreds of thousands of migrants. The Biden administration announced Friday that it would not renew a temporary humanitarian "parole" program for approximately 530,000 migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, who entered the U.S. with sponsors since October 2022. The two-year grants under this program will soon expire. The program, designed to provide legal entry pathways and reduce illegal border crossings, will continue to accept new applications but not extend existing permissions. Most affected migrants can seek protection through other U.S. immigration avenues, such as Temporary Protected Status (TPS) or the Cuban Adjustment Act. Reuters New York Times Washington Post CBS  

EUROPE

Former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg: ‘So far, we have called Putin’s bluff.’ Former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg reflects on his tenure, particularly the challenges of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Stoltenberg admits that NATO should have provided Ukraine with more military support before and immediately after the invasion, acknowledging that earlier action might have deterred Russia. Despite Kyiv’s calls for a no-fly zone, Stoltenberg maintained NATO’s position of supporting Ukraine without direct involvement to avoid conflict escalation. He highlights that NATO has crossed many of Russia’s “red lines” without retaliation, proving that Putin’s threats often lack follow-through. Stoltenberg believes the war's outcome will involve a balance between battlefield advancements and negotiations. Drawing historical parallels, he mentions Finland's 1939 war with the Soviet Union, which resulted in a territorial compromise but secured Finnish independence. Stoltenberg suggests that there are ways for Ukraine to join NATO even if Russia occupies some of its territory. He cites historical examples, such as West Germany's NATO membership, which excluded East Germany, and the U.S.'s security guarantees to Japan that do not cover the disputed Kuril Islands. Stoltenberg implies that a solution could involve defining a line where NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause would apply without triggering an automatic war with Russia. Financial Times

Pedro Sánchez clings to office at a cost to Spain’s democracy. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez clings to power through alliances with Catalan and Basque separatists, a move critics argue undermines Spain’s democracy. In return for political support, Sánchez has granted concessions, including an amnesty for those involved in Catalonia’s illegal independence bid, sparking concerns about weakening the country’s constitutional order. Despite economic successes, including job growth and European Union recovery funding, Sánchez's reliance on separatist parties and his reshaping of state institutions have deepened public cynicism about Spain’s political stability, raising questions about long-term governance. The Economist

ANALYSIS–Georgian Democracy Is Slipping Into Russia’s Grip. Georgia’s parliamentary elections on Oct. 26, 2024, are set against increasing authoritarianism as the government intensifies its crackdown on media and nongovernmental organizations through the controversial "Transparency of Foreign Influence" law. This legislation, passed in May 2024, forces civil society groups receiving over 20% of foreign funding to register as "foreign agents." Critics liken it to Russian laws used to suppress dissent and fear it signals Georgia’s shift toward Moscow. Despite international criticism, protests, and the U.S. imposing sanctions, the ruling Georgian Dream party continues to push the law, framing it as necessary for transparency. With concerns over Georgia's democratic future growing, these elections could further entrench the country’s drift toward Russia, threatening its aspirations to join the European Union and NATO. Foreign Policy 

Georgian President Zourabichvili blasts ruling party's pro-Russia stance. In an interview at the Warsaw Security Forum, Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili condemned the pro-Russian direction of the ruling Georgian Dream party, which has passed oppressive laws similar to Moscow's. She said they undermine civil society and Georgia's progress in European Union accession. Zourabichvili views the Oct. 26 parliamentary elections as a referendum on Georgia's future, framing them as a choice between European integration and Russian influence. She insisted that the Georgian people do not want closer ties with Russia. Kyiv Independent

Austrian far-right head urges rivals to let him govern after election win. Herbert Kickl, leader of Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FPO), urged rivals to allow him to form the next government after his party won the parliamentary election with 29% of the vote, though short of a majority. He warned against a "coalition of losers" and emphasized that voters gave the FPO a mandate to govern. Kickl seeks to become chancellor but faces resistance, as most parties, including the ruling People's Party (OVP), refuse to form a coalition with him. President Alexander Van der Bellen has expressed reservations about Kickl entering government. Reuters

MIDDLE EAST

ANALYSIS–More Wars, a Failed State, and a Step Back by the United States. After the war in Gaza ends, the Middle East is expected to face continued instability. Israel’s tolerance for risks from groups like Hamas and Hezbollah will diminish, while the Palestinian Authority will become even more irrelevant, leaving Israel without a security partner. Hamas could gain new allies in future conflicts. Gaza is likely to become a failed state, with violence and humanitarian crises. Despite the need for U.S. intervention to prevent regional wars, Washington will likely reduce its involvement, prioritizing crisis management over long-term solutions. Foreign Policy

ASIA & OCEANIA

China is using an ‘anaconda strategy’ to squeeze Taiwan. In an interview, Taiwan’s Navy Commander, Admiral Tang Hua, warned of China's increasing military pressure around Taiwan, describing it as an "anaconda strategy" designed to squeeze the island. Since Taiwan’s president Lai Ching-te's election in May, Chinese naval and air presence near Taiwan has significantly intensified, with frequent incursions into Taiwan's airspace and waters. This growing pressure is straining Taiwan’s navy, which struggles to match China’s military capacity. Taiwan is exercising restraint to avoid provocations while seeking international support, including joint exercises with allies like Japan, Australia, and the U.S., to deter Chinese aggression. The Economist

Taiwan’s Greatest Vulnerabilities Extend Beyond Its Military. A recent tabletop exercise, conducted by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), highlighted Taiwan’s nonmilitary vulnerabilities that China could exploit in its efforts for reunification. The scenarios focused on economic and cyber-coercion, including tariffs, cyberattacks on Taiwan's banking and energy sectors, and severing undersea internet cables. The exercise revealed Taiwan's need to bolster financial, cyber, and energy security, with recommendations such as repatriating capital from China, enhancing cyber defenses, and increasing energy storage. The findings underscore the growing threat of China’s “gray-zone” tactics, similar to those seen in Russia’s war on Ukraine. Foreign Policy

Taiwanese leaders says it is 'impossible' for China to be ‘motherland.’ Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te stated that it is "impossible" for China to claim Taipei as its motherland due to Taiwan's older political roots. He stressed that Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China (ROC), traces its origins to the 1911 revolution, predating the People's Republic of China (PRC), which was founded in 1949. Speaking before Taipei’s national day celebrations, Lai asserted that the island is a sovereign, independent country, rejecting Beijing's territorial claims. He also noted that the ROC could be considered the motherland of the PRC, given its older political history. Reuters 

America is losing Southeast Asia to China. President Joe Biden’s decision to skip the East Asia Summit in Laos on Oct. 11 for a second consecutive year signals a shift in U.S. interest in Southeast Asia, allowing China to strengthen its regional influence. This disengagement is driven by conflicts in Europe and the Middle East and a focus on alliances like the Quad with Australia, India, and Japan. Southeast Asian nations feel alienated by American protectionism, uncertainty over U.S. Taiwan policy, and its stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict. This year, for the first time, Southeast Asian elites lean towards China over the U.S. in regional alignment. Southeast Asia remains at the geographic and economic heart of the competition between America and China, so ignoring it carries risks. The Economist

Kazakhstan votes on whether to construct nation’s first nuclear plant amid criticism. Kazakhstan, a former Soviet republic, is holding a referendum on whether to build its first nuclear power plant, a project supported by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev as the country seeks to phase out coal plants. Despite Kazakhstan's significant natural gas reserves, the country relies heavily on coal power and imports electricity from Russia. The government argues that nuclear power, given Kazakhstan's status as a major uranium producer, is essential for a reliable energy supply alongside renewable sources like solar and wind. However, the proposal has sparked public opposition due to the hazards of nuclear energy, Kazakhstan's Soviet-era legacy of nuclear testing, and fears of Moscow’s involvement through Rosatom, a Russian state nuclear firm. Critics suggest that gas-powered plants, which are less polluting than coal and pose fewer risks than nuclear power, could achieve the same energy goals. Concerns also stem from Kazakhstan’s history with the Chornobyl disaster and Soviet nuclear tests, which have left lasting health and environmental impacts. Reuters RFE/RL Nikkei Asia 

New Zealand Navy vessel runs aground, sinks off Samoa, all 75 crew and passengers safe. A Royal New Zealand Navy vessel, the Manawanui, ran aground and sank off the coast of Samoa while conducting a reef survey on Saturday. All 75 crew and passengers were safely rescued by responding vessels, and a Royal New Zealand Air Force plane was deployed to assist. The cause of the grounding is still under investigation. The Manawanui, a dive and hydrographic vessel purchased for NZ$103 million in 2018, capsized after the incident. Minor injuries were reported, and efforts are underway to salvage the vessel and assess environmental impacts. The New Zealand Navy is already facing capacity challenges due to personnel shortages. South China Morning Post Reuters Australian Broadcasting Network 

Pakistan police clash with supporters of former PM Khan in Islamabad. Pakistan police clashed Friday with supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan in Islamabad during an anti-government rally. Despite a ban on gatherings and the city being sealed off for upcoming diplomatic events, including a visit by India’s foreign minister, dozens of Khan’s supporters protested, chanting for his release. Authorities responded with teargas, and some protesters, including Khan’s sisters, were detained. The protests come amid broader tensions, with Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party challenging the legitimacy of the ruling coalition and calling for Khan’s release. Reuters Al Jazeera The Economic Times  

Six Pakistani soldiers killed in clash with Islamist militants, military says. Six Pakistani soldiers, including a high-ranking officer, were killed in a clash with Islamist militants in the country's restive northwest, the military on Saturday. Lieutenant Colonel Muhammad Ali Shoukat, who the military said was leading the troops in the encounter with militants, was among those killed in the tribal district of North Waziristan, which borders Afghanistan, on Friday night. Reuters Deutsche Welle RFE/RL  

Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar to visit Pakistan for SCO summit. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will visit Pakistan for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit on Oct. 15-16, marking the first such visit in nearly a decade. The visit comes amid strained relations between the nuclear-armed neighbors, mainly over the Kashmir dispute. While no meetings with Pakistani leaders have been confirmed, the visit may offer a diplomatic opportunity despite tensions, including accusations of cross-border terrorism. The summit follows a 2023 visit by Pakistan's former foreign minister to India for an SCO meeting. Reuters Reuters

AUKUS navies remotely control ships from 10,000 miles away in an experiment. The navies of Britain, Australia, and the U.S. successfully controlled uncrewed ships in Australia from Portugal, over 10,000 miles away, during military experiments under the AUKUS security pact. The Royal Navy announced on Oct. 4 that these tests, part of "Maritime Big Play," demonstrated rapid progress in uncrewed technology for military use. AUKUS aims to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific, and further experiments are planned later this year. China has criticized AUKUS, warning that it could provoke a regional arms race. Reuters

The Philippines accuses China of assaulting Vietnamese fishermen in the South China Sea. The Philippines condemned China on Friday for what it described as an "unjustified assault" on Vietnamese fishermen in the contested South China Sea. The incident occurred near the Paracel Islands, claimed by both Vietnam and China, where Chinese officials reportedly beat 10 Vietnamese fishermen and confiscated their gear. China argued the fishermen were there illegally. Philippine National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano denounced the violent act, stating it violated international law and human decency. Tensions in the South China Sea, a strategic region claimed largely by China, continue to escalate, involving overlapping territorial claims and frequent maritime encounters. Reuters Radio Free Asia 

U.S., South Korea agree on five-year plan to share defense costs. The U.S. and South Korea on Friday finalized a five-year plan to share the cost of U.S. military deployments in South Korea, agreeing to a defense cost increase of 8.3% for 2026, amounting to $1.13 billion. The deal ensures that the cost-sharing arrangement will be in place before the U.S. elections. The agreement also sets an annual increase cap of 5%, using the Consumer Price Index as a reference, and reflects efforts to deter North Korean threats. Reuters Straits Times 

North Korea leader Kim threatens nuclear response if sovereignty is breached. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un warned of using nuclear weapons if Pyongyang’s sovereignty is threatened, state news agency KCNA reported on Friday. Kim criticized South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's remarks about ending North Korea’s regime, calling it provocative. Kim said that North Korea's nuclear weapons would not be relinquished and vowed to use them against any attempt to violate its sovereignty. His comments followed a South Korean military parade showcasing its ballistic missile capabilities, heightening tensions between the two countries. Reuters CNN Deutsche Welle France 24   

AFRICA

Tunisians protest against President Saied two days before the presidential vote. Ahead of Tunisia's presidential election on Oct. 6, protests escalated against President Kais Saied, with hundreds marching in Tunis. Demonstrators decried the election as unfair, accusing Saied of removing most rivals to maintain power. Opposition figures are either imprisoned or disqualified, including candidate Ayachi Zammel, who received prison sentences for alleged forgery. Saied faces only two candidates, including former ally-turned-critic Zouhair Maghzaoui. Critics claim Saied has undermined democracy while Tunisia grapples with severe economic challenges and public disillusionment. Voter turnout is expected to be low. Reuters Reuters Al Jazeera 

A massacre in Burkina Faso left 600 dead, double previous estimates, according to French security assessment. A massacre in Barsalogho, Burkina Faso, on August 24, 2024, left up to 600 people dead, double earlier estimates. Militants from Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al Qaeda affiliate, attacked villagers who were digging trenches for defense. The French security assessment reported that civilians were methodically shot as they tried to defend their town. Many victims were women and children. The attack highlights the growing power of jihadist groups in the Sahel, especially after the departure of French and American forces. Burkina Faso's junta has been criticized for failing to protect civilians and for using unprotected locals to dig defensive trenches. Relations between Burkina Faso's military junta and Russia have grown closer since the junta took power in 2022. CNN

ANALYSIS–Sudan's war will intensify as the rainy season ends. As Sudan's rainy season ends, the civil war between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is set to escalate. Since April 2023, fighting has displaced over 10 million people, exacerbating famine and a humanitarian crisis. Both sides, bolstered by external support, are vying for control, with the RSF holding significant ground. Recent army offensives in Khartoum have regained some territory, but the RSF is expected to leverage the dry season to intensify attacks. The ongoing war, initially triggered by power struggles over Sudan’s political transition, shows no signs of resolution, worsening the humanitarian toll. Reuters

Angola Diamonds Are Not Under Sanctions But Russia Link Is An Obstacle. Angola’s state-owned diamond producer, Endiama, faces challenges with some clients due to its partnership with Russia’s Alrosa, which holds a 41% stake in Angola’s Catoca mine. While Angola's diamonds are not subject to Western sanctions, Alrosa's connection creates difficulties, especially after the Group of Seven nations banned Russian diamond imports to curb Kremlin funding. Although Alrosa’s revenue remains in Angola, the company may sell its Angolan interests. Angola's government has described the partnership with Alrosa as "toxic." Bloomberg

A dangerous dispute in the Horn of Africa. Tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia have escalated over port access, involving regional powers like Egypt, Turkey, and the UAE. Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland to lease a coastline for a naval base in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence has angered Somalia, which views Somaliland as part of its territory. Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed faces growing hostility, while Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has secured Egypt's military support. The dispute risks further destabilizing the Horn of Africa, potentially strengthening jihadist groups like al-Shabab and worsening regional rivalries, threatening the fragile peacekeeping mission in Somalia. The Economist

Months after mpox outbreak declared global emergency, Congo launches vaccination campaign. The Congo on Saturday initiated vaccinations against mpox, formerly known as monkeypox, two months after a major outbreak spread across Africa and prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a global emergency. Congolese authorities began the campaign in the eastern city of Goma, North Kivu province, using 265,000 doses donated by the EU and the U.S. Congo has reported around 30,000 suspected cases and 859 deaths, accounting for the majority of mpox cases and deaths in Africa this year. The initial doses are being administered to adults in at-risk populations, including frontline workers, with vaccines for children expected from Japan soon. Despite the continent’s 200% rise in cases this year, access to vaccines remains limited, with only 5.9 million doses expected for Africa by year-end. Associated Press The Guardian Deutsche Welle 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Telegram's crackdown on cybercrime: criminals weigh alternatives but most stick around. The popular messaging app Telegram, long favored by cybercriminals for its loose moderation and non-cooperation with Western law enforcement, is becoming less appealing to hackers following the arrest of its founder, billionaire Pavel Durov. Durov, who holds French and Russian citizenship, has pledged to combat illegal activities on the platform, including disclosing the IP addresses and phone numbers of dangerous criminals. Despite this, many hackers are expected to remain on the app due to its large user base and comprehensive features. Some cybercriminal groups have discussed migrating to alternative platforms like Jabber, Tox, Signal, and Discord, but few have actually left Telegram. Alternatives lack key features like extensive bot functionality and the ability to create large group chats, which are crucial for cybercriminals' activities. Telegram’s increased cooperation with law enforcement may present new opportunities for authorities to gather information on criminals, especially those involved in severe crimes like child exploitation. The platform is expected to handle more law enforcement requests as it refines its moderation and security practices. The Record 

U.S. says insurance companies need to cease funding ransomware payments. Anne Neuberger, the White House’s deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technologies, has urged insurance companies to stop issuing policies that incentivize making extortion payments in ransomware attacks. Writing in the Financial Times, Neuberger warned that such policies fuel cybercrime and therefore must end. While there is no formal proposal to ban these practices yet, the call follows discussions at the International Counter Ransomware Initiative (CRI) summit, where 68 member countries addressed the issue. Some members, along with insurance bodies, issued guidance urging companies to carefully consider their options rather than paying ransoms, though these suggestions fall short of banning the practice. Despite these efforts, ransomware attacks have doubled in both the U.S. and U.K. over the past two years. The Record Financial Times 

AI startups ride on investor frenzy to raise billions in 2024. In 2024, AI startups have ridden a wave of investor enthusiasm, raising billions in funding. OpenAI recently closed a $6.6 billion funding round, valuing the company at $157 billion, underscoring the excitement around generative AI since ChatGPT's launch in 2022. Several other AI startups have also secured over $500 million in equity funding this year from venture capital and angel investors, reflecting strong confidence in AI’s transformative potential. These investments signal continued growth and innovation in the AI sector. Reuters

Meta, challenging OpenAI, announces new AI model that can generate video with sound. Meta announced on Friday a new AI model called Movie Gen, which can generate realistic video and audio clips based on user prompts. The tool rivals offerings from companies like OpenAI and ElevenLabs, and can create videos up to 16 seconds long, with audio lasting up to 45 seconds. Movie Gen can also edit existing videos by adding elements, such as inserting objects or changing backgrounds. While Meta has no plans to release Movie Gen for open developer use, it is working with the entertainment industry and will incorporate the tool into its products next year. Reuters

ANALYSIS–Biden’s High-Wire Balancing Act on Chinese Tech. The Biden administration’s new rule to ban Chinese and Russian connectivity and automation technologies in U.S. cars stems from national security concerns but carries geopolitical and economic implications. The regulation, which targets connected and autonomous vehicles, would effectively block Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) from the U.S. market. While this aims to safeguard against potential cyber threats, critics argue it could hinder decarbonization efforts and stifle domestic innovation by removing low-cost, high-quality Chinese EVs from competition. The move reflects the U.S. strategy of restricting Chinese tech access but risks disrupting economic relations and slowing the EV transition domestically. Foreign Policy

Google tests verified check marks in search results. Google is testing verified check marks in search results to help users identify trusted businesses and avoid fraudulent websites. The feature aims to prevent users from encountering fake sites that impersonate official companies and spread false information. Google already uses automated systems to block scammy content but is now experimenting with adding blue check marks next to verified businesses, including Microsoft, Meta, and Apple, in search results. Reuters

ANALYSIS–Why Europe is losing the tech race. Europe is falling behind in the global tech race, lagging behind the U.S. and China in innovation, productivity, and technological advancements, as highlighted in a recent report by Mario Draghi. The European Union faces structural economic challenges, particularly low productivity growth, and a shrinking workforce due to declining demographics. The EU’s research and development (R&D) spending is significantly lower than that of the U.S. and China, stifling the emergence of tech champions. Draghi proposes a massive financial push, calling for an additional €750-800 billion annually to boost R&D. However, political reluctance, especially from Germany, makes such large-scale investment unlikely. Without addressing its innovation gap, Europe risks further economic decline, limiting its global influence and its ability to sustain its social model. Foreign Policy

Fighting back data centers, one small town at a time. Grassroots resistance to tech companies’ data center projects is growing in small towns like Peculiar, Missouri. Residents are organizing to stop these facilities, which place heavy demands on power and water resources. Wendy Reigel, who helped halt a similar project in Chesterton, Indiana, lent her support to Peculiar's efforts, where locals celebrated after city officials moved to ban the data center proposal. While critics point to environmental and infrastructural risks, tech companies argue that data centers bring economic benefits. This community-led opposition is spreading across the U.S. as more towns join the fight against unchecked tech expansion. Washington Post

Italy investigating two firms due to supply of unsafe parts to Boeing contractor. Italian prosecutors are investigating two aerospace companies and seven individuals for allegedly supplying non-compliant components to Leonardo SpA for Boeing 787 Dreamliner production, according to a report by Ansa. The companies, based in Brindisi, Italy, are accused of using pure titanium instead of titanium alloys and sub-standard aluminum alloys to manufacture structural parts. This has reportedly compromised the components' resistance to stress and static forces, potentially affecting transport safety. Leonardo, which supplies Boeing and Airbus, has not commented, and authorities in Brindisi have not responded to inquiries. Bloomberg Reuters 

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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