Report for Monday, September 30, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Monday, September 30, 2024

Hezbollah confirms 7th top commander killed with Nasrallah

Israeli warplanes keep up bombing tempo

Russia cautions West to avoid attempts “to fight to victory with a nuclear power.”

Western official cites evidence that China supplied weapons to Russia for war in Ukraine.

China initiates Scarborough Shoal exercises as U.S., Philippines conduct drills together

37 insurgents in Syria linked to extremist groups killed by U.S. airstrikes

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

After Nasrallah Assassination, Hezbollah and Israel Face Uncharted TerritoryThe Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israeli intelligence on Hezbollah has knocked venerable extremist group down but not out.  Hezbollah now knows how deeply, and broadly Israeli agents penetrated its ranks. Its arsenal is diminished, its comms down and its elusive, charismatic leader Hassan Nasrallah killed in a targeted strike on his underground command and control center.  Half of Hezbollah's leadership council and senior military commanders – all dead. All this destruction was the culmination of two decades of hard, smart work by Israeli intelligence, which, Reuters reported, enabled the Israeli military to hit Nasrallah whenever it wanted. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ministers authorized the attack Wednesday, It was executed while Netanyahu was in New York to speak at the U.N. General Assembly. "This is a massive blow and intelligence failure for Hezbollah," Magnus Ranstorp, Hezbollah expert at the Swedish Defense University, told Reuters. " Israel's military says it has killed eight of Hezbollah's nine most senior military commanders this year, mostly in the past week.  Israel's military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani told reporters Saturday that the military had "real-time" knowledge that Nasrallah and other leaders were gathering. The group is not wiped out. U.S. and Israeli estimates that before recent strikes, it had some 40,000 fighters, an arsenal of 150,000 rockets, missiles and drones, and an extensive tunnel network. Only a fraction of these assets have been destroyed.  Hezbollah has been demoralized and weakened.  The Wall Street Journal profiled Nasrallah as “an almost messianic figure, commanding loyalty of tens of thousands of devout Shia Muslims, and ascending to become the single-most important figure in Iran’s array of allied militias.”  He won’t be easily replaced.  Reuters  Wall Street Journal  New York Times  South China Morning Post  

Hezbollah confirms 7th top commander killed with Nasrallah; Israeli warplanes keep up bombing tempo.  Ali Karaki, a senior Hezbollah commander in charge of the southern front, died Friday alongside Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the extremist group confirmed.  Israel said at least 20 other Hezbollah militants, including  founding members, were killed, including one in charge of Nasrallah’s security detail. Nabil Kaouk, the deputy head of the militant group’s Central Council, was killed Saturday,  Hezbollah confirmed, making him the seventh senior Hezbollah leader slain in Israeli strikes in a little over a week. On Monday, Israeli warplanes struck central Beirut for the first time in the current conflict. The latest target was a multi-story residential building. One of the dead belonged to al-Jamaa al-Islamiya, or the Islamic Group, a Sunni political and militant group allied with Hezbollah.  Associated Press   Reuters  IDF/Telegram  

President Biden call Nasrallah’s death a 'measure of justice' for his victims.  In a statement Saturday morning, President Joe Biden said Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallay’s death was a “measure of justice for his many victims, including thousands of Americans, Israelis, and Lebanese civilians.”   Nasrallah “made the fateful decision” to open a “northern front” against Israel the day after the Hamas terrorist attack of Oct. 7, Biden said.  But Biden also called on Israel and Hezbollah “to de-escalate the ongoing conflicts” and work through diplomacy to end the fighting. Biden said that he had ordered U.S. forces in the region to enhance their “defense posture” to deter aggression and lessen the chances of a broader regional war.  Reuters  New York Times  Reuters   

Iran's supreme leader taken to secure location as Iranian leaders mull next moves.  Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been taken to a secure location inside Iran after Israel killed leaders of Iran’s proxy Hezbollah in strikes on Beirut, Reuters reported. Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards Corps ordered all members to stop using electronic communication devices after thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah were booby-trapped, presumably by Israeli agents, and blew up Sept. 17 and 18, injuring thousands of Hezbollah fighters. In addition to killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Israel’s strikes on Beirut killed Revolutionary Guards' deputy commander Abbas Nilforoushan.  Reuters 

China chastises Israel for targeted killings of Hezbollah leaders.  China's foreign ministry said on its website Sunday that Beijing opposes any violation of Lebanon's sovereignty.  China’s relatively mild reproof was posted after an Israeli airstrike on Beirut killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. China urged Israel and Hezbollah to calm the situation immediately to prevent the conflict from expanding or "even getting out of control", the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on its website.  Reuters

UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY

Russia cautions West to avoid attempts “to fight to victory with a nuclear power.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov gave a fervent speech on Saturday at the U.N. General Assembly, warning against the “senselessness and the danger” of attempts to defeat a nuclear power like Russia. He also lambasted the West for using Ukraine as a tool in a broader strategic conflict. Lavrov’s remarks followed Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent shift in nuclear doctrine, which lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons. Lavrov accused the West of preparing Europe for a “suicidal escapade,” and rejected Kyiv’s peace proposal as a “doomed ultimatum.” The top diplomat also welcomed a peace plan proposed by Brazil and China, which seeks a diplomatic solution to the war. Moscow, he said, is willing to provide aid to this effort but insists that resolving the conflict requires the confrontation of deeper issues such as NATO’s expansion and the alleged repression of Russian speakers in Ukraine. Associated Press South China Morning Post 

India’s External Affairs Minister condemns Pakistan and China, cites ‘karma.’ Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar spoke at the U.N. General Assembly over the weekend, advocating for a “more representative” U.N. and chastising Pakistan and China for undermining the territorial integrity of their neighbors. Jaishankar referenced the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which was launched under the Belt and Road Initiative and passes through the fiercely disputed Kashmir region. Jaishankar’s barbed remarks targeted Islamabad’s troubles, attributing the nation’s economic struggles to its poor decisions and "misdeeds." The diplomat accused Pakistan of exporting terrorism and radicalization and blamed its dysfunction on "karma." He also called for reforming the U.N. to make it more representative and effective, pushing for a U.N. Security Council that includes permanent seats for countries like India, Brazil, Japan, and Germany, as well as African representation. New Delhi has been positioning itself as a global power, particularly as a counterbalance to China, and has strengthened ties with the U.S. and other countries in the Quad alliance - Australia, Japan, and the U.S. - to counter Beijing’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. South China Morning Post 

China’s top diplomat urges Mideast ceasefire, condemns trade sanctions. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi has called for global "joint resistance" to U.S.-led restrictions, denouncing trade protectionism and technological blockades, and urging that "extraterritorial nations" avoid inciting confrontation in Asia. Wang stressed the need for regional stability through cooperation and dialogue and criticized Washington’s sanctions while defending Beijing’s right to economic growth. During his speech, he reiterated China's commitment to reunification with Taiwan, describing it as a non-negotiable issue. He also called for de-escalation of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, particularly noting the need for a ceasefire in Gaza and expressing support for a two-state solution for Palestine. China's peace efforts, including discussions with Global South countries on Ukraine, have been observed skeptically by the West due to Beijing's close ties with Russia. Wang’s speech reflects China's broader push for a more equal global order and its opposition to Western dominance, particularly U.S. influence in trade, technology, and military activities in the Indo-Pacific. South China Morning Post Reuters Associated Press  

Blinken says China's talk of Ukraine peace 'doesn't add up.’  During a Friday media briefing following a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed doubts about China's sincerity in seeking peace in Ukraine. Blinken criticized China for allegedly supporting Russia’s military, noting that Beijing supplies machine tools and microelectronics used in Russia’s defense industry. He stated, "When Beijing says it wants peace but allows actions that help Putin’s aggression, that doesn't add up." Wang Yi denied these claims. Deutsche Welle Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Western official cites evidence that China supplied weapons to Russia for war in Ukraine. Western officials have obtained evidence that China secretly supplied weapons, including military drones, to Russia for use in the war against Ukraine, according to The Times. The arms deal was completed in 2023, signaling an escalation of China's involvement. A NATO representative expressed deep concern. Despite China's denials, the West believes Beijing is supporting Russia’s military efforts, including long-range strike drones.  The Times  Ukrainska Pravda

Ukraine Says It Struck Cache of Iranian Missiles in Russia. Ukraine claimed to have struck a weapons cache Sunday in Russia’s Volgograd region, potentially targeting newly arrived Iranian missiles. The strike near Kotluban caused fire and ammunition detonations. Russia reported a swarm of 125 Ukrainian drones overnight but did not confirm the strike's details. In Voronezh, a falling drone struck a residential apartment, causing a fire. Separately, in the Belgorod region, a man was killed, and eight civilians were injured following drone and shelling attacks. Bloomberg Reuters Associated Press Kyiv Independent

Zelensky Visited U.S. to Seek War Boost. His Most-Important Ally Shrugged. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent visit to the U.S. highlighted challenges in securing additional military support for his country. Despite ongoing Russian advances and the need for more weaponry, Zelensky’s key request—permission to use longer-range missiles—was denied by President Joe Biden, who feared escalation with Russia. While Biden pledged nearly $8 billion in military aid, skepticism within the administration persists. Zelensky's meeting with former President Donald Trump yielded vague promises, with Trump suggesting a rapid negotiation to end the war, causing concerns among Ukraine’s allies. European leaders, like Finland’s Alexander Stubb, called for bolder U.S. action to ensure Ukraine’s victory. Without a major surge in the quantity and power of weapons flowing into Ukraine, Zelensky’s goal of returning all occupied territory, about one-fifth of the country, appears distant. Wall Street Journal

ANALYSIS–Ukraine’s Desperate ‘Victory Plan.’ Ukraine’s request for Western approval of long-range strikes into Russia, part of President Volodymyr Zelensky's "victory plan," is unlikely to lead to a decisive win. Despite some successes with drone strikes, Kyiv wants to escalate with missiles targeting Russian logistics. However, the Biden administration is cautious. The West’s limited and delayed military support hinders Ukraine's long-term prospects. National Interest

Zelensky gives his 'victory plan' a hard sell in the US - did the pitch fall flat? During his visit to the US, President Volodymyr Zelensky pushed his "victory plan" to bolster Ukraine’s battlefield position and seek permission for long-range missile strikes into Russia. Despite meeting President Joe Biden and Republican figures, including Donald Trump, enthusiasm for Ukraine’s key requests, such as NATO membership and missile approval, remained limited. Zelensky’s criticisms of Trump and running mate JD Vance caused tension. While Biden announced new military aid, the reception fell flat, with US election politics complicating matters. BBC

What is Zelensky’s ‘victory plan’ against Russia? President Volodymyr Zelensky’s “victory plan” aims to end the war on Kyiv’s terms, focusing on five key components. It calls for Ukraine’s invitation to join NATO. Zelensky also seeks access to long-range missiles to strike targets within Russia. The plan emphasizes the need for a sustained supply of advanced weapons, a clear pathway to European Union membership, and additional economic aid for Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts. Al Jazeera

Zelensky says Trump assured him of support for Ukraine in war with Russia. In an interview with Fox News aired on Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that former U.S. President Donald Trump assured him of support for Ukraine in its war with Russia if Trump wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Zelensky met Trump at Trump Tower in New York on Friday during his U.S. visit and presented his "victory plan," which seeks more weapons and fewer restrictions on long-range missiles. While seeking U.S. backing, Zelensky emphasized his neutrality regarding the U.S. election to avoid alienating American voters. Reuters The Hill

Trump Suggests Putin Wants to End War, as Zelensky Looks On. Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky met at Trump Tower in New York on Friday amid tensions between Ukraine and Republicans. Trump reiterated his belief that he could end the Russia-Ukraine war quickly through negotiations, emphasizing his positive relationship with Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. "I'm sure President Putin wants it to stop,” Trump said, suggesting both sides, including the war’s instigator, Putin, are looking for a resolution. Zelensky presented his "victory plan" and insisted that Putin could not win. Despite prior criticism of each other, Zelensky described the meeting as "very productive.” However, Trump’s praise for Putin and criticism of U.S. aid to Ukraine has raised alarms in Kyiv. Meanwhile, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, during a meeting with Zelensky, indirectly criticized Trump’s stance, warning against proposals for Ukraine to cede territory as part of any peace deal with Russia. Trump also referenced his 2019 impeachment, praising Zelensky. He noted that Zelensky didn’t “grandstand” during the controversy over Trump's pressuring him to investigate Joe Biden. Trump claimed that Zelensky had supported him, which helped end the impeachment "hoax." The meeting underscores the uncertainty over U.S. policy toward Ukraine should Trump win the Nov. 5 election. New York Times  Bloomberg The Guardian New York Times The Independent Financial Times Washington Post CNN Associated Press The Hill NBC News Reuters US News & World Report

Russian attacks on hospital in Ukraine's Sumy kill 10, Kyiv says. Russia attacked the Saint Panteleimon Clinical Hospital in Ukraine’s northern city of Sumy with Shahed drones on Saturday, killing 10 people and injuring 22. The second strike hit as first responders arrived, causing most of the fatalities. Nine nearby high-rise buildings were also damaged. Sumy lies near Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops have been deployed since August to divert Russian forces. Reuters  Associated Press  Al Jazeera Euronews 

Russian attacks kill a top judge and three others Saturday in Kharkiv. Two Russian attacks in Ukraine's Kharkiv region on Saturday killed four people, including Supreme Court Judge Leonid Loboyko, who was delivering aid. A separate air attack killed three people and injured at least three others in the village of Slatyne, which is 15 miles north of the regional capital of Kharkiv. A Russian drone killed the judge in Kozacha Lopan and injured three women in his car. Ukrainian officials reported the use of guided bombs in the attacks. Reuters

Russian missile kills three, damages buildings Friday in central Ukrainian city. A Russian missile strike on Friday hit a five-story building housing the regional police department in Kryvyi Rih, killing three people and injuring six others. The victims were found under the rubble, while rescue efforts continued as more people were feared trapped. The attack also damaged 23 private houses, three apartment blocks, and an educational facility. Emergency services reported partial destruction of the police directorate for the Dnipropetrovsk region. Reuters

Russian attack Friday on southern town of Izmail kills 3, injures 14. A Russian drone attack on the southern Ukrainian town of Izmail Friday killed three people and injured 14, including three children. The early-morning strike caused fires and damaged homes. In a separate overnight attack, Russian missiles hit an industrial facility in Dnipro, causing a fire. Ukraine's air force reported shooting down 24 out of 32 drones. Reuters

Russia pounds Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia city on Sunday with guided bombs, injures 16. Russia launched multiple guided bomb strikes on Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on Sunday, wounding at least 16 people, including two children. The attacks damaged residential buildings, infrastructure, and railways. President Volodymyr Zelensky posted images of the destruction, highlighting the difficulty of intercepting guided bombs with Ukraine's air defenses. Zaporizhzhia, an industrial hub near the front lines, has faced intensified Russian bombings. Zelensky said Moscow's use of nearly 900 guided bombs, 300 drones, and 40 missiles in the past week. Reuters

Russian attacks Sunday on Sumy Oblast injure 10. Russian forces launched multiple attacks on Sumy Oblast on Sunday, injuring 10 people across 14 communities. In Esman, five women were injured by a guided bomb, while a similar strike in Hlukhiv injured two more. Drone attacks in Druzhba injured a train conductor and station employee, with another civilian hurt in Yampil. The region faces daily assaults, including Saturday’s hospital bombing in Sumy that killed 10 people. Kyiv Independent

Nine deported children brought back to Ukraine, ombudsman says. Nine Ukrainian children deported to Russia after its 2022 invasion were returned Saturday to Ukraine with Qatar’s help, according to Ukraine’s ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets. The children, aged 13 to 17, included several with disabilities and some who had lost parents in the war. Many were taken from an orphanage in Kherson. Lubinets noted efforts to return more children, with 751 cases submitted for negotiation. Ukraine estimates that 20,000 children have been unlawfully deported. Reuters

Colonel involved in training Shahed UAV operators killed in Russia – Ukraine's Defense Intelligence. Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (DIU) reported the death of Russian Colonel Alexei Kolomeitsev on Friday in Moscow Oblast’s Kolomna. Kolomeitsev, 51, led Russia's 924th State Centre for uncrewed aircraft, which trains specialists in drone combat, including operators of Shahed UAVs used against Ukraine. DIU highlighted his involvement in war crimes. The Ukrainian intelligence agency emphasized that justice would be served for all war crimes. Ukrainska Pravda

Russia's FSB says it detained two Ukrainian agents in Crimea. Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) detained two Ukrainian agents in Crimea, accusing them of transferring military intelligence to Kyiv. One agent, a 45-year-old Crimean resident, reportedly provided coordinates of Russian air defense installations in Kerch, near the Crimean Bridge. The second detainee, 43, allegedly offered to assist Ukraine's defense ministry. Russia, which annexed Crimea in 2014, claims these individuals aided missile strike planning against Russian military facilities. Reuters

Russia puts American, 72, on trial as alleged mercenary for Ukraine. A Moscow court has begun the trial of 72-year-old American Stephen James Hubbard, accused of fighting as a mercenary for Ukraine. Hubbard was reportedly paid $1,000 after signing a contract with a Ukrainian territorial defense unit in Izyum in February 2022. Russian forces captured him in April 2022, and he has been in pre-trial detention for six months. If convicted, Hubbard faces 7 to 15 years in prison. He joins at least nine other Americans currently held in Russia. Reuters RFE/RL

Russian forces fired missile that killed Reuters safety adviser, Ukraine says. Russian forces fired a missile that killed Reuters safety adviser Ryan Evans and wounded two journalists on Aug. 24, 2024, in Kramatorsk, according to Ukrainian intelligence. The missile, identified as a Russian Iskander-M, was launched from Taganrog, near the Ukrainian border. Evans, a former British soldier, was killed when the missile hit the Sapphire Hotel, where the Reuters team was staying. Ukraine is investigating whether the attack deliberately targeted journalists or the hotel. Reuters

As the Ukraine war enters a critical period, the EU moves ahead without the US. As the war in Ukraine intensifies, the European Union is stepping up its support, preparing to offer Ukraine a loan package of €35 billion ($39 billion) amid uncertainty over U.S. involvement. Traditionally aligned with the U.S. on major conflicts, the EU is taking more responsibility due to concerns over the upcoming U.S. election and Donald Trump’s critical stance on Ukraine aid. The EU’s offer forms part of a larger G7 plan utilizing profits from frozen Russian assets. Associated Press

Ukraine Is Decentralizing Energy Production to Protect Itself from Russia. The Energy Act for Ukraine Foundation is decentralizing Ukraine's energy production by equipping schools and hospitals with solar panels and energy storage systems. As Russian attacks target Ukraine's power infrastructure, this shift ensures critical structures can function independently, even during blackouts. The foundation's efforts, which began in response to the 2022 invasion, aim to install decentralized renewable energy sources across 30 buildings annually. These systems save thousands of euros in energy costs and increase awareness of clean energy while providing vital energy security during the ongoing war. Wired

Switzerland praises China-Brazil peace plan for Ukraine. Switzerland has voiced support for the Chinese-Brazilian peace plan for Ukraine, marking a shift in its stance. Switzerland, which hosted a Ukraine peace summit in June, attended a 17-nation meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly Friday and sees potential in the diplomatic efforts led by China and Brazil. Switzerland is also in talks to find a host for a follow-up peace summit. Reuters

Far-right party opposed to Ukraine aid wins Austria elections. Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FPO), led by Herbert Kickl, won Sunday’s general election with 29.1% of the vote, according to projections. Known for its pro-Kremlin stance, the FPO opposes aid to Ukraine and supports lifting sanctions against Russia. Despite its win, forming a coalition government may be challenging, as other parties have expressed reluctance to align with the FPO. Austria’s President Alexander Van der Bellen has criticized the party for failing to condemn Russia's aggression and its Euroskeptic views. Kyiv Independent

Russia preparing for assault operations in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukrainian military says. A Ukrainian military official said Saturday that Russian forces are preparing for assault operations in southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, amassing personnel near the Russian-occupied village of Pryiutne. Although no full-scale offensive is expected yet, this buildup suggests Russia aims to improve its tactical position. Meanwhile, Russia continues offensives in Donetsk Oblast, particularly around Vuhledar, which they have sought to encircle, with hopes of advancing toward the key Ukrainian logistics hub of Pokrovsk. Kyiv Independent

Russia Had Nearly 200 Artillery Pieces in Kursk When Ukraine Invaded. But The Gunners Weren’t Ready. In August 2024, Ukrainian forces swiftly seized 400 square miles of Russia’s Kursk Oblast by surprising unprepared Russian defenders. Despite having nearly 200 artillery pieces, Russian troops lacked intelligence and coordination, leaving their firepower ineffective. Ukrainian forces bypassed Russian defenses, using mobility and jamming communications. Although Russia has regained some ground, the front line has stabilized, with both sides digging in. Ukraine’s success highlights the importance of surprise over sheer firepower in modern warfare, but further advances will likely require targeting other vulnerable areas. Forbes

North Korea says US military aid to Ukraine is 'incredible mistake'. North Korea condemned the U.S. decision to provide $8 billion in military aid to Ukraine, calling it a dangerous mistake that risks escalating the war and pushing Europe toward nuclear conflict. Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, warned that the U.S. and its allies are underestimating Russia’s nuclear threat. This criticism follows reports of North Korea strengthening ties with Russia, including allegations of illegal weapons shipments, which both nations deny. Reuters

As Russian losses in Ukraine surge, some military bloggers turn on Kremlin, military command. The Kremlin faces backlash from Russian military bloggers over the reported use of specialist troops in mass infantry assaults on Ukrainian positions. With Russian forces suffering heavy losses, bloggers criticize the strategy of deploying skilled soldiers, including special forces and even sailors, in high-casualty attacks. A UK military report revealed Russian casualties have averaged over 1,000 daily, with a total exceeding 610,000 since the invasion began. Bloggers also decry the misuse of specialists, with recent deaths of reconnaissance drone experts highlighting systemic failures. Kyiv Independent

It was Ukraine’s ‘safe’ city. Then his whole family died. On Sept. 4, Yaroslav Bazylevych lost his wife, Eugenia, and three daughters when a Russian hypersonic missile struck Lviv, seen as one of Ukraine’s safest cities. The tragedy occurred on his youngest daughter Emilia’s 7th birthday. Yaroslav was the only survivor. The missile attack, which killed seven people, shocked Lviv and the country, reminding Ukrainians that nowhere is safe from Russia’s war. Thousands attended the family’s funeral, and Yaroslav plans to create a scholarship in his daughters’ memory. Despite his grief, he pushes forward, driven by memories of his family. Washington Post

Denmark to invest over $628 million in Ukraine's defense industry. Denmark and Ukraine have agreed on a $628 million investment in Ukraine’s defense industry. The deal will finance weapons production for Ukraine. Funding includes money from the Danish government and frozen Russian assets. Ukrainska Pravda

AI is reshaping drone warfare in Russia and Ukraine. Drones, especially AI-enhanced models, are transforming warfare in Ukraine. Ukrainian units use drones for reconnaissance and attack, scouring front lines for Russian movements. Russia and Ukraine race to outpace each other. Russia excels in jamming drones, while Ukraine leads in small, short-range drones and sea drones. Despite innovative solutions from Ukrainian startups, heavy artillery remains critical. Ukraine continues to request Western support, particularly for advanced drones and artillery, as it confronts Russia's superior electronic warfare capabilities. New York Post

Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant says Ukraine again attacks substation. The Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant reported that Ukrainian forces attacked a nearby electricity substation on Sunday, damaging a transformer. The attack occurred in Enerhodar, near the plant. Despite the damage, power to the town was not disrupted. Russia captured the Zaporizhzhia plant, Europe's largest, early in its 2022 invasion. Reuters

Zelensky marks anniversary of World War II Nazi massacre. President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday marked the 83rd anniversary of the Babyn Yar massacre, where over 30,000 Jewish people were murdered by Nazis near Kyiv in 1941. The massacre was one of the largest single killings of Jewish people during World War II in Ukraine. Zelensky, who is Jewish, reflected on the horrific event, stating that Babyn Yar symbolizes how atrocities occur when the world remains silent and indifferent. He called for global determination to stand against evil, drawing parallels to Russia’s war on Ukraine, and emphasized that the world’s response to such crimes must be stronger to prevent future tragedies. Between 100,000 and 150,000 people - including Jewish people, Roma people, Soviet prisoners of war and other Ukrainians - were killed at Babyn Yar between 1941 and 1942 during the Nazi occupation of Ukraine. South China Morning Post

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Sept-27-29, 2024. Western countries, including Denmark, are investing more in Ukraine's defense industrial base to enhance cooperation and support domestic production. Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian ammunition depot in Volgograd Oblast. The Russian government plans to increase defense spending in 2025. Western officials revealed that the People's Republic of China is aiding Russia's war effort in Ukraine by supplying military drones and critical imports. Ukrainian media reported that Russian resistance groups, in coordination with Ukrainian intelligence, assassinated Colonel Aleksei Kolomeystev, a key figure in Russian drone training, near Moscow. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned Israel's airstrike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Russia is reportedly enacting legislation allowing criminal immunity for those who join the Russian military. Ukrainian forces repelled a large Russian mechanized assault near Kupyansk on Thursday, marking the first such attack along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line since winter. Russia is likely focusing on reaching the Oskil River, which would help Russia encircle Ukrainian forces, but the pace of Russian advances remains slow.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced within and around Toretsk, southeast of Pokrovsk, near Kupyansk, Selydove, and Vuhledar, as well as in its Kursk Oblast. Institute for the Study of War–Sunday Institute for the Study of War–Saturday Institute for the Study of War–Friday 

ANALYSIS–How Defense Experts Got Ukraine Wrong. Before and after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, many prominent defense analysts, particularly those specializing in Russian military affairs, predicted a swift Russian victory. These experts underestimated Ukraine’s capabilities and overestimated Russia’s military strength, focusing on technical aspects while neglecting issues like Russian corruption and the quality of Ukraine’s military reforms since 2014, when Russia initially invaded and seized Crimea and parts of the eastern Donbas. This pessimistic consensus led to overly cautious Western aid for Ukraine. The failure highlights the need for diverse perspectives, open debate, and intellectual humility in military analysis, especially in times of crisis. The Atlantic

Opinion: Stopping Putin in Ukraine could also arrest a slide toward World War III. George F. Will argues that stopping Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine is essential to preventing a slide toward a larger global conflict, likening the alliance of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea to the 1940 Tripartite Pact. Putin’s war is described as a crusade against the West. Will warns that the West’s insufficient support for Ukraine, particularly from Germany, risks prolonging the war and vindicating Putin's belief that the West lacks perseverance. He calls for more weapons and fewer restraints on their use to prevent Ukraine from becoming a failed state. Washington Post

Opinion: Biden Reneges on His Ukraine Promise. The Biden administration is under fire for not delivering a clear, public strategy for aiding Ukraine, despite Congress mandating one as part of a funding bill. While Biden has supported Ukraine in public statements, his administration has been criticized for slow responses on key military support and for submitting a classified strategy document months late. House Republicans are pushing for an unclassified version to allow public debate on the U.S. approach to the war. The lack of transparency fuels skepticism about U.S. support as the 2024 election approaches. Wall Street Journal

Opinion: Conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine offer a shared, brutal vision of the future of war. Simon Tisdall argues that the wars in Ukraine and Gaza reveal a grim future where leaders like Volodymyr Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu act with impunity, disregarding international laws and humanitarian norms. He criticizes the double standards of Western governments, the ineffectiveness of the United Nations, and the brutality, highlighting the commonalities of economic devastation, flouted Geneva Conventions, and the suppression of dissent. The Guardian

Opinion: Ukraine Rhetoric Veers Toward Reality. Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. suggests that despite the election-driven rhetoric on Ukraine, both Joe Biden and Donald Trump may ultimately aim for a similar endgame—settling the war without Russia gaining more Ukrainian territory. Kamala Harris’s recent remarks opposing any territorial concessions are dismissed as political posturing. Jenkins argues that Biden’s cautious approach signals he’s more interested in maintaining the current strategic advantage than pushing for total Russian withdrawal, and a ceasefire may soon be in sight, pending U.S. leadership changes. Wall Street Journal

AMERICAS

U.S. House passes billion-dollar bill that could spell changes for anti-China propaganda campaign. The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed the “Countering the PRC Malign Influence Fund Authorization Act of 2023,” a bill proposing $1.6 billion in funding over five years to counter China's influence globally. The bill targets actions by Beijing that threaten the “international order” or weaken Washington’s national and economic security. The proposal also aims to support media and civil society in opposing Chinese influence. Critics argue that the bill lacks safeguards against disinformation and transparency regarding recipients of the funds, raising concerns about covert anti-China propaganda. Some analysts warn that this could worsen U.S.-China relations, while others question the need for additional funding, as the U.S. already has significant resources for information warfare. The bill, which will also address concerns over China’s Belt and Road Initiative, still requires Senate and presidential approval. South China Morning Post 

Bipartisan committee calls on U.S. to reconsider Russia strategy, deem Moscow a “persistent” threat. The Helsinki Commission, a bipartisan committee responsible for promoting democracy and human rights in dozens of nations, has released a report urging the U.S. to overhaul its post-Cold War approach to Russia, and designate Moscow as a “persistent threat” to global security. The report advocates that the U.S. rethink its Russia relations, similar to how Washington has reframed its stance on China. A key focus is securing Ukraine’s victory against Russia by providing substantial military and humanitarian aid, allowing Kyiv to strike deeper into Russian territory with American weapons. The report criticizes the long-held belief that cooperation with Moscow could moderate its behavior, citing Russia’s past aggressions like the Crimea annexation and Ukraine invasion, as well as its interference in U.S. elections. The commission calls for abandoning this flawed policy and emphasizes the need for a long-term U.S. strategy to support democratic governance in countries threatened by the Kremlin’s influence. It stresses that Russia’s nuclear threats should be taken seriously but handled with careful planning and reasoning. The report urges Washington not to overestimate Russia's global power, despite its strong nuclear arsenal, and to continue engaging allies worldwide to counter aggression and promote democracy in vulnerable post-Soviet states. The Hill 

Ukraine’s artillery demand is helping boost Scranton’s economy. Ukraine's demand for defense materiel is boosting Scranton, Pennsylvania's economy. The Scranton Army Ammunition Plant, run by General Dynamics, has added 200 jobs since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The plant produces over a third of the 155mm artillery rounds the U.S. supplies to Ukraine. Other local companies, like Gentex and Schott, are also growing, creating jobs and reversing the region’s economic decline. This resurgence in manufacturing complements Scranton’s shift toward healthcare and education, revitalizing the area’s economy and workforce. Washington Post

Security Council to vote Monday on Haitian security mission.  The 15-member U.N. Security Council is scheduled to vote Monday on a draft resolution to extend the mandate for the security mission in Haiti until Oct. 2, 2025. The U.N. approved the mission a year ago at Haitian leaders’ request. Reuters reported Washington is supporting a call by the head of Haiti's transition council, Edgard Leblanc, for a U.N. peacekeeping mission.  Reuters  

Peruvian businesses demand protection from an outbreak of organized crime.  Peru's business associations said Friday that they are being extorted by organized crime so severely that the government called in the military to help police bolster security in the capital Lima.  Peru’s government Thursday declared a 60-day state of emergency in 14 districts of Lima after bus drivers in the city went on strike, demanding greater protection from extortion and attacks.  "We live under siege from organized crime which has taken control of the country in the alarming absence of the state," more than 20 trade associations said in a joint statement.  Reuters

EUROPE

Poland, Baltic states aim to secure E.U. funding for a border defense network. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland are trying to secure E.U. funding to build a defense line of bunkers, barriers, and military warehouses along their borders with Russia and Belarus as tensions heat up on the European continent. This "Baltic Defense Line," initially announced in January, aims to enhance security due to increasing threats from Russia and its war with Ukraine. Poland has a similar project, the "Eastern Shield," for its borders with Kaliningrad and Belarus. Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur emphasized the importance of coordinating with Poland and suggested the E.U. could support the project financially. The defense ministers of these countries, all NATO members, met last week to discuss funding but did not specify the amount requested. They stressed that fortifying the border is crucial, particularly given modern warfare's reliance on physical barriers. Estonia plans to build 600 bunkers by 2025, though delays may occur due to private land issues. Poland’s line, which is expected to be ready by 2028, will cost 2.3 billion euros, while Lithuania's cost is estimated at 300 million euros. The defenses will not include mines, anti-tank weapons, or barbed wire during peacetime. South China Morning Post 

Russia and China’s strengthening arctic presence test’s NATO’s ability to maintain influence.  Svalbard, a remote Norwegian archipelago located high above the Arctic Circle, has become a focal point in geopolitical tensions involving the expanding footprint of Russian and Chinese influence. Svalbard, which has a population of fewer than 3,000 people, has been historically governed by Norway under a 1920 treaty, but allows resource exploitation and research by other countries, including Russia. Recently, both Moscow and Beijing have increased their presence in the Arctic, aiming to dominate trade routes and expand their military capabilities. Russia has sought to revive its abandoned coal-mining settlement of Pyramiden with Chinese collaboration, while tensions have risen over Russian military actions and the rising threat of espionage. Beijing, too, has shown growing interest in Svalbard, proposing land acquisitions and research activities, raising concerns in Norway and NATO about the potential military applications of these moves. The Arctic region, rich in untapped oil and natural gas, is becoming increasingly important as ice melts, freeing shorter shipping routes. Moscow has reopened Soviet-era military bases, and China declared itself a "near-Arctic" nation in 2018 and is building new icebreakers. Norway, in response, has bolstered military spending, increased intelligence sharing with the U.S., and strengthened its military presence on Svalbard. While Russia insists its Arctic activities are peaceful, the West remains wary, seeing Russia’s and China’s actions as part of a broader competition for Arctic dominance. Since the Kremlin brought war to Europe in 2022, the isolated territory has experience damaged trust, the previously peaceful coexistence on the archipelago disrupted. Wall Street Journal 

Economists say Russia’s adaptability to US sanctions stymied their effectiveness. A new report reveals that U.S. sanctions against Russia, imposed after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, have not inflicted the expected damage due to Russia's adaptability. The piecemeal approach to sanctions and a lack of global cooperation, especially from countries like China and India, weakened their impact. Russia leveraged lessons from the 2014 sanctions, developed alternative systems, and bypassed oil price caps with its fleet of tankers. The report highlights that sanctions alone are not a "silver bullet" for halting Russia’s war efforts. Associated Press

Seasoned diplomat says West should establish its own red lines, not just accept Putin’s.  Veteran German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger asserts that the West should establish its own red lines with the Kremlin, rather than constantly reacting to Russian threats. He argues that the West could, for example, inform Moscow that it will respond to any further Russian attacks on civilian targets by providing Ukraine with more advanced weapons, such as Taurus cruise missiles. Ischinger, onetime chairman of the Munich Security Conference, stressed that setting such red lines would place the responsibility on Moscow to decide whether to escalate further. Ischinger, who has expressed a commitment to peace negotiations, believes that talks must begin from a position of strength, as Russia respects strength over “concessions and weakness.” While peace negotiations are unlikely before the upcoming U.S. elections, he sees potential for future talks between Washington and Moscow, as Russia views European leaders as “vassals” to the U.S. These talks would address key issues such as Kyiv's NATO membership, borders, and arms control, starting with less contentious topics like POW exchanges and the safety of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. He also envisions a role for a contact group of international mediators, including China, India, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, in facilitating peace talks. Politico 

Russia says it is ready to bring Nord Stream explosions issue to court. The Russian foreign ministry said Saturday that it is prepared to take legal action over the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline blasts if Western countries fail to investigate the incident properly. The Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which transport gas under the Baltic Sea, were damaged by a series of explosions in September 2022, months after Mosow invaded Ukraine. No group has ever claimed responsibility for the attack. The Kremlin has accused both the U.S. and Britain of involvement, though no evidence has been provided, and both countries have denied the allegations. A Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman said Moscow has filed "pre-trial claims" against Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland under international conventions related to terrorism. If the matter is not resolved, Russia plans to take the case to the International Court of Justice, accusing these nations of failing to fulfill their obligations under these treaties. Other countries linked to the explosions could also face legal action. German prosecutors recently issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diving instructor in Poland in connection with the attacks. Zakharova condemned the lack of cooperation from Western nations, stating that they are not upholding their responsibilities to investigate and prosecute those responsible. Reuters 

Putin aide alleges West is attempting to isolate Russia's Kaliningrad exclave by restricting goods supply. Nikolai Patrushev, a hawkish aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, last week accused the West of attempting to isolate Moscow’s European exclave of Kaliningrad by restricting the transport of goods by road and rail through sanctions. Russia's Baltic Fleet is stationed in Kaliningrad, which is located between NATO and E.U. members Lithuania and Poland. Due to E.U. sanctions over Russia’s war in Ukraine, certain goods are banned from being transported to the exclave. Patrushev, well known for his hardline stance on the West, stated that 80% of essential goods for Kaliningrad could not be delivered by land, forcing Russia to supply the exclave by sea, including via a ferry linking Kaliningrad with a port in the Leningrad region. He added that the Kremlin is working to move key supplies like diesel and cement to a specialized tanker fleet, and is constructing two rail and road ferries to improve transportation, which are expected to be completed by 2028. Reuters Kyiv Independent  

Norway considering constructing a fence on its Russia border like NATO member Finland.  Norway is weighing the idea of installing a fence along part or all of its 198-kilometer border with Russia to enhance security, galvanized by a similar move by Finland. Justice Minister Emilie Enger Mehl noted that such a fence could act as a deterrent and incorporate sensors and technology to detect movement near the border. The Norwegian government is also exploring other security measures, such as increasing border staff or improving monitoring. Norway is prepared to close its border quickly if the situation in Europe worsens. The Nordic country’s interest in the fence comes after Finland, prompted by a spike in undocumented migrants crossing from Russia, began constructing sections of a border fence equipped with surveillance technology to prevent what it calls Moscow’s "hybrid warfare." Now, Norway may implement similar fencing along its border, which already has a small 200-meter fence built in 2016 after an influx of migrants. Associated Press Kyiv Independent Ukrainska Pravda  

The far-right, experiencing upswing across Europe, secures victory in Austria’s election. The far-right has taken the European continent by storm, with Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), under the leadership of divisive figure Herbert Kickl, securing the latest victory in a series of wins across the E.U. FPÖ won 29.2% of the vote, putting them ahead of the conservative People's Party (ÖVP), which received 26.5%, but still short of a majority. Kickl praised voters for their trust, calling the win a "piece of history." The election focused on issues like migration, asylum, the economy, and the war in Ukraine. Despite the victory, forming a coalition may prove difficult as the ÖVP, led by Chancellor Karl Nehammer, has refused to join a government with Kickl, citing concerns over his support for conspiracy theories. Other major parties, including the Social Democrats, Greens, and Neos, have also ruled out partnering with the FPÖ. Kickl has promised to build a "Fortress Austria" to restore security and prosperity, aligning himself with Hungary's contentious leader Viktor Orban. However, Kickl’s leadership is controversial, with echoes of Austria's Nazi past and recent scandals involving party members. This victory is part of a broader trend of far-right gains across Europe, with similar parties rising in countries like Italy, Germany, and France. BBC Reuters Associated Press Wall Street Journal 

MIDDLE EAST

37 insurgents in Syria linked to extremist groups killed by U.S. airstrikes. The U.S. military on Sunday announced that it conducted two airstrikes in Syria this month, killing 37 militants linked to the Islamic State (IS) and an al-Qaeda-affiliated group. One strike on Sept. 16 targeted an IS training camp in central Syria, killing 28 militants, including four Syrian leaders. Another strike on Sept. 24 in northwestern Syria killed a senior member of the al-Qaeda-linked group Hurras al-Deen and eight others. These operations aimed to disrupt the capabilities of IS and prevent future attacks on U.S. interests, allies, and partners. Washington has around 900 troops in the country, working primarily with Kurdish-led forces to prevent the resurgence of IS. Associated Press Deutsche Welle Reuters 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Chinese missile intercept test near Indian border sends overt “deterrent message.” Analysts believe that China’s recent missile intercept test near the Indian border is a strategic message of deterrence amid ongoing diplomatic talks over the two countries' long-standing border dispute. The test, part of a live-fire drill on the Karakoram Plateau, successfully intercepted a subsonic cruise missile at high altitude, demonstrating the efficacy of Beijing’s military capabilities in harsh conditions. The exercise was carried out by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Xinjiang Military District, charged with maintaining the Chinese side of the contested border with India. The missile test occurred in proximity to the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the ill-defined 3,488km border between China and India. Observers interpret the test as signaling China’s readiness to defend its interests while continuing diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict. The missile test coincided with the 31st round of border talks between Beijing and New Delhi, and some experts view it as a show of strength to reinforce the ongoing negotiations. Indian analysts expressed concern, seeing the test as a potential catalyst for an arms race in the region. In response, India may reassess its defense strategies, possibly speeding up its own missile development programs and enhancing its military capabilities. South China Morning Post 

China initiates Scarborough Shoal exercises as U.S., Philippines conduct drills together. China conducted joint naval and air exercises near the contested Scarborough Shoal on Saturday, coinciding with U.S.-Philippine military drills alongside Australia, Japan, and New Zealand in the South China Sea. This marked China’s second such drill near the shoal in two months. The exercises, led by the People's Liberation Army (PLA), included reconnaissance and early warning drills, as well as sea and air patrols, and were framed as a response to the instability created by "external countries," though no specific nations were mentioned. Simultaneously, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in New York, and called on Washington not to "stir up trouble" in the region. Blinken criticized China’s actions as destabilizing. Manila, meanwhile, said that the U.S.-Philippine exercises aimed to demonstrate their commitment to a "free and open Indo-Pacific." South China Morning Post 

U.S. missile deployment in Philippines threatens peace, China argues. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has denounced Washington’s deployment of intermediate-range missiles in the Philippines, stating that it "undermines regional peace and stability." During a meeting with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul in New York, Wang also underscored the need to avoid "war or chaos" on the Korean Peninsula. This year, the U.S. deployed the Typhon missile system in the Philippines, prompting China to demand its removal. Russia has also condemned the missile deployment, capable of striking Chinese targets, and accused the White House of escalating an arms race. Wang argued that this move is not beneficial for regional countries. Manila, which is strategically located near Taiwan, plays a key role in U.S. defense strategy in Asia. Reuters

Taiwan on high alert after detecting multiple missile launches in inland China. Taiwan's Defence Ministry announced it was on high alert over the weekend after detecting "multiple waves" of missile launches deep within Chinese territory. The missile firings were observed starting early Sunday in Chinese provinces located at least 2,000 km from Taiwan, including Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai, and Xinjiang. Taipei closely monitors Chinese military activities, particularly due to the superpower's regular military exercises around the self-governing island. China’s Rocket Force, which is responsible for the nation’s missile arsenal, including nuclear weapons, conducted the launches. Reuters

NATO's Indo-Pacific strategy plagued with obstacles. NATO is cautiously expanding cooperation with its Indo-Pacific partners amid mounting global pressures, focusing on balancing security issues while treading carefully around China in an attempt to avoid overextending its resources, especially amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. Russia and China, meanwhile, are conducting joint military drills to showcase strength and cooperation, with Moscow aiming to distract the U.S. and enfeeble NATO, and Beijing seeking to intimidate regional rivals while learning from Russia's military experience. NATO, concerned about the Indo-Pacific region's security, has been strengthening ties with regional partners like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand (IP4). The alliance asserts that developments in the Indo-Pacific can affect Euro-Atlantic security, and is addressing global issues such as cybersecurity and counterterrorism. However, NATO is wary of provoking China, a key trading partner, and there is no consensus on expanding its geographical remit to offer security guarantees in Asia. While cooperation is growing, particularly in intelligence and defense production, Western allies are still determining the extent of their involvement in the region. Deutsche Welle 

AFRiCA

Somalia bomb blasts kill at least six. Two separate bomb explosions in Somalia on Saturday left at least six people dead and 10 injured. One attack occurred in the capital, Mogadishu, after a bomb-rigged car exploded near the National Theatre, killing five people and injuring seven. The second explosion took place at a livestock market in Jowhar city, Middle Shabelle region, killing one person and injuring three. While no group immediately claimed responsibility, the Islamist insurgent group al Shabaab, notorious for frequent and brutal assaults in Somalia, is suspected. Al Shabaab militants have been fighting to overthrow the Somalian government and impose its strict interpretation of Islamic law for years. Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Chinese leader sets out technology, system reform goals at anniversary event.  Chinese leader Xi Jinping used the occasion of celebrations surrounding the country’s 75^th anniversary to call for technological innovations following the example of past Chinese role models like Wang Yongzhi, a space program pioneer who was awarded a posthumous state medal.  Xi urged listeners at an anniversary event to “create extraordinary achievements in ordinary positions and continuously make progress in solving development challenges, overcoming reform difficulties, and maintaining social harmony and stability.”  Xi voiced similar views during a meeting last week with space scientists and engineers involved in the Chang’e-6 lunar mission, when he called for more hard work to speed up progress in space programs.  The Chinese leader has set out 5-year goals for the reform of scientific research systems in order to “cultivate a large, well-structured and high-caliber team of innovative talent.”   South China Morning Post

Huawei delivers Nvidia-alternative AI chip to Chinese tech sector for testing.  Huawei Technologies reportedly has begun testing of a new AI chip in a bid to provide Chinese companies with an alternative to advanced Nvidia chips.  Large Chinese server firms that employ Nvidia chips in their operations have received samples of the Huawei Ascend 910C processor for hardware and configuration testing.  Huawei is attempting to fill the gap left when the U.S. imposed new export controls on Nvidia’s most advanced graphics processing units (GPU’s).  An earlier Huawei chip, the Ascend 910B, has gained traction in multiple Chinese tech sectors as an alternative to the Nvidia A100.  Huawei has said that the Ascend series has been used to train half of China’s top large language models.   Huawei executive Eric Xu Zhijun noted last week that in the last five years the company has established two computing businesses as an option to meet tech sector AI infrastructure needs.  South China Morning Post

Chinese officials pushing ‘buy domestic’ policy for industry’s AI chip needs.  Bloomberg reports that Chinese officials are pressuring the country’s tech sector to acquire domestically produced AI chips over those produced by Nvidia.  As part of Beijing’s effort to boost technological self-sufficiency and circumvent U.S. chip export controls, Chinese regulators specifically has discouraged tech firms from buying Nvidia’s new H20 chip, which was designed for Chinese and other restricted markets.  While described as “guidance’ rather than a government mandate, the Chinese policy seeks to boost the country’s growing chipmaker industry, which includes Huawei and Cambricon Technologies.  Chinese officials also have urged electric vehicle manufacturers to increase orders from domestic chip sources.  The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is one of several Chinese regulatory agencies that has issued “window guidance,” which lacks the force of law, to shift domestic industries away from Nvidia products.  Bloomberg notes that Beijing has offered substantial subsidies to the country’s semiconductor sector although domestic AI chips lag far behind the sophistication of Nvidia’s offerings.  Several Chinese ministries contacted by Bloomberg for comment on the policy directives have not responded.  Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said last week that the company is trying to serve customers in China while complying with U.S. government restrictions.  Bloomberg

New report says China’s computational power capacity grows by 25 percent in 2024.  A report released at an annual computational power conference in China indicates that total computing power in the country grew by 25 percent in the first half of 2024.  Computing power is a critical element to meet the processing demands of AI and other technologies.  In June the country’s computing capacity reached 246 EFLOPS, or 246 quintillion floating-point operations per second compared to 197 ELOPS the year before.  At this pace, China’s second-largest economy will meet the target set last year of 300 EFLOPS in total computing power by 2025.  The report from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) noted that the U.S. accounts for 32 percent of the world’s total computing power at 910 EFLOPS, which combines government and commercial facilities.  CAICT director Yu Xiaohui described China’s computational power sector as “fragmented,” which increases the difficulty of matching supply and demand.  Zhao Zhiguo, the chief engineer at the Ministry of Information and Technology, described the “most urgent need” for the growth of digital information infrastructure arising from the accelerating rate of digitalization and AI development.  Zhao called for continuing advances in core technologies, including including “high-end chips, architecture design, large-language-model algorithms and high-speed transmission protocols.”  South China Morning Post

Experts point to ‘pivotal’ U.S.-India decision on new semiconductor plant in India.  According to experts, the agreement between the U.S. and India to construct a semiconductor fabrication plant in eastern India signals that collaboration between the two countries on sensitive military technologies is redefining New Delhi’s role in the worldwide supply chain for advanced chips. Announced during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s talks with President Joe Biden earlier in September, the deal for the new plant will focus on defense applications, telecommunications, and renewable energy.  The director of a New Delhi think tank described the agreement as on a par with “India’s civil nuclear agreement with the U.S., which in the geopolitical context brought India out of its outlier status.”  India now joins a limited number of countries wielding the capability to manufacture leading semiconductors for key applications, including radar systems and advanced communications.  C. Uday Bhaskar, director of the Society for Policy Studies in Delhi, said the U.S.-India decision is significant in light of the U.S. practice of limiting its sharing of sensitive military technologies to a few select allies.  Semiconductor fabrication, Bhaskar said, “is a totally different ballgame.”  South China Morning Post

Irish data commission fines Meta $102 million for password protection violation.  Ireland’s Data Protection Commission (DPC), in enforcing the E.U. 's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), has fined Meta $102 million for the company’s internal storage of some passwords in plaintext.  The fine follows an investigation launched in 2019 when Meta disclosed the “inadvertent” password storage, which the DPC found violated several GDPR provisions.  A Meta spokesperson noted that the company acted quickly “to fix the error, and there is no evidence that these passwords were abused or accessed improperly.”  The spokesperson added that the company “engaged constructively” with the DPC throughout the inquiry.  The DPC announced last Friday that the fine and reprimand issued to Meta were based on several GDPR violations, including the failure to advise the DPC of the personal data breaches.  The Irish DPC, which is the lead E.U. regulator for a number of U.S. tech platforms that have headquarters in Ireland, has fined Meta a total of $2.7 billion for GDPR violations, including a record $1.3 billion 2023 fine under appeal by Meta.  CyberScoop   The Record   Reuters   Wall Street Journal

DoD asks Congress to remove ‘Cyber Force’ study from NDAA requirements.  The Pentagon last week asked Congress to pull legislation that would mandate an independent study of establishing an independent cyber service.  The request was one of a number of “appeals” to the fiscal 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).  Observers say the DoD’s request to kill the separate cyber service study may inflame tensions with legislators who believe the concept warrants careful examination.  Rep. Morgan Luttrell, who sponsored the House amendment to the NDAA, described as “extremely perplexing” the Pentagon’s opposition to an effort to evaluate whether a Cyber Force would contribute to the ability to  “effectively operate in cyberspace.”  RADM Mark Montgomery (Ret.), a senior director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said “it is troubling to me that DoD’s response to a request for a transparent look is, ‘No, we don't want transparency.’”   A Pentagon spokesperson did not respond to The Record’s request for comment by publication time.  In its appeal, the Pentagon pointed out that in the fiscal 2023 NDAA Congress had already ordered an assessment of existing military cyber structure.  The Record

China unveils lightweight lunar spacesuit. China’s Manned Space Agency (CMSA) on Saturday revealed the design of its first lunar spacesuit, a key development toward its planned crewed moon landing by 2030. The lightweight spacesuit, developed over four years, is designed to protect astronauts from the moon's extreme temperature fluctuations, lack of atmosphere, and high levels of solar radiation. It enables mobility for tasks such as walking, climbing, driving, and conducting scientific research on the lunar surface. Beijing is on track to land astronauts on the moon before 2030, with a plan involving two Long March 10 rocket launches. Three astronauts will be sent into lunar orbit, and two will land on the moon for a brief mission before returning. South China Morning Post 

SpaceX launches rescue mission for Nasa astronauts stuck in space.  SpaceX launched a rescue mission for two astronauts, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, who have been stuck on the International Space Station due to safety concerns with Boeing's Starliner spacecraft. The rescue capsule, carrying a downsized crew, was launched to retrieve the astronauts, but their return will not happen until February 2024. Wilmore and Williams were originally part of Boeing's first astronaut flight in June, which was cut short due to thruster and helium issues. NASA removed two astronauts from the current SpaceX mission to make room for the stranded astronauts on the return trip, extending their time in space to over eight months. South China Morning Post 

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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