Report for Monday, October 7, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Monday, October 7, 2024

Israel expands strikes in Lebanon, Gaza ahead of today’s anniversary of Hamas attacks

Ukraine braces for a new Russian offensive in southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Slovakia’s Fico says Ukraine will never join NATO on his watch

Putin’s ‘merchant of death’ is back in the arms business, selling to the Houthis

Report: China could wage economic war on Taiwan to force surrender

US wiretap systems targeted in China-linked hack

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Top Counterterrorism Official: Gaza War Has Inspired Dozens of Terror Plots.  In the runup to the anniversary of the October 7 massacre, The Cipher Brief spoke with four members of our expert network – all of whom have extensive experience in the Middle East: Ambassador Gary Grappo and three long-time senior officers at the CIA – Paula Doyle, Ralph Goff and Glenn Corn. We asked them to reflect on the year that has passed – their early impressions after the massacre, the Israeli military response, the seismic changes that have come to the Middle East, and where they believe the region may be headed in the year ahead. The Cipher Brief

In Global Threat Matrix, a New and Different Cold War.   Michael Vickers, former Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence, had an unusual and almost unparalleled career in the U.S. intelligence community, having been deeply involved in both the efforts against the Soviets in Afghanistan that led to the end of the Cold War, and then – more than two decades later – the operation to track and kill Osama Bin Laden. Vickers opened the 2024 Cipher Brief Threat Conference Saturday with a sweeping look at the threat landscape – a landscape that has changed dramatically since he left government. He spoke with Cipher Brief Suzanne Kelly as the Threat Conference began.  The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israel marks Oct. 7 anniversary under the shadow of escalating war. Israelis marked the one-year anniversary of Hamas’ attack with somber ceremonies, vigils, and moments of silence on Monday. The attack, which killed 1,200 people and triggered ongoing conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah, deeply scarred the nation. At 6:29 a.m., the exact moment Hamas launched its assault, families of the 400 victims killed at the Nova music festival gathered with Israeli President Isaac Herzog at the site. After briefly playing trance music from the festival, hundreds observed a moment of silence for lives lost and the 100 hostages still held in Gaza. Anger and frustration linger over the government's failure to prevent the attack and its inability to recover all captives, reflected in separate protests held in Tel Aviv. Outside Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's home in Jerusalem, around 300 people led by families of hostages holding up photos of their loved ones, observed a minute of silence for the dead as a siren sounded.  Reuters  Associated Press

US spends a record $17.9 billion on military aid to Israel since last Oct. 7. Since Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7, 2023, the U.S. has spent a record $17.9 billion on military aid to Israel, including munitions, missile defense systems, and equipment from U.S. stockpiles. Additionally, $4.86 billion has been spent on bolstering U.S. military operations in the Middle East, including countering Houthi attacks in Yemen. The U.S. military presence in the region increased from 34,000 to 50,000 troops at its peak, with multiple aircraft carriers deployed to deter further regional escalation. The Biden administration’s support for Israel, amid rising civilian casualties in Gaza, has fueled domestic debate as the war continues. Associated Press The Herald  

ANALYSIS–Wrath and sorrow rule in Israel on the anniversary of October 7. As Israel marks the first anniversary of the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks, the country faces internal divisions and external conflicts on multiple fronts. Commemoration events highlight discord, with separate ceremonies due to public anger at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership. Simultaneously, Israel continues its military campaigns against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon while considering responses to Iran’s Oct. 1 missile attacks. Despite making military gains, Israel’s objectives—destroying Hamas, rescuing hostages, and neutralizing Hezbollah—remain incomplete, and the country’s divisions may worsen. Israel has succeeded at hammering its enemies but has not yet worked out how to end its wars. The Economist

ANALYSIS–The War That Won’t End. The war between Israel and Hamas, which began on Oct. 7, 2023, continues with no end in sight. What started as a violent Hamas-led incursion into southern Israel has evolved into the deadliest and longest Arab-Israeli conflict since 1949. Israel’s counterattacks, in response to the unprecedented breach of its border, have devastated Gaza, resulting in more than 40,000 Palestinian deaths, alongside the deaths of 1,500 Israelis during the initial assault. Despite military gains, Israel’s efforts to dismantle Hamas have stalled due to the group’s guerilla tactics, particularly their use of underground tunnels. The war has exacerbated internal divisions within Israeli society, spurred international protests, and revealed the limitations of U.S. diplomacy. Both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and Hamas, led by Yahya Sinwar, refuse to yield. The conflict has also sparked regional tensions, drawing in Hamas allies and widening the scope of the war. New York Times

Israel bombs Lebanon and Gaza ahead of the one-year anniversary of the Oct. 7 attacks. Just before the first anniversary of Hamas' deadly Oct. 7 attacks, Israel launched heavy airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. In Beirut’s southern suburbs, intense bombardment destroyed buildings and killed 12 civilians. Hezbollah retaliated by firing missiles into Israel, striking Haifa and wounding at least 10 people. In Gaza, Israeli strikes hit a mosque and a school, killing 26 and injuring 93. The Israeli military claimed the strikes targeted Hamas command centers embedded within the sites, which Hamas denies. In northern Gaza, Israel has launched a renewed offensive into Beit Lahiya and Jabalia for the first time in months, killing at least 20 more people while targeting militants in Hamas strongholds. Airstrikes and shelling caused widespread destruction. Two Israeli armored brigades have encircled the area while infantry launched operations. The military also issued a mass evacuation order for northern Gaza residents, urging them to move south. The war has intensified in recent weeks, with over 2,000 deaths in Lebanon and ongoing devastation across Gaza and southern Lebanon. On Oct. 7, 2023, the Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked southern Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 people hostage, triggering the renewed violence that spreads today. Reuters Reuters Associated Press Wall Street Journal New York Times Reuters Bloomberg

In one year of war, Israel strikes 40,000 Hamas targets in Gaza. In the year since Hamas militants attacked southern Israel, triggering an ongoing war, Israel has conducted over 40,000 airstrikes on Gaza, targeting tunnels and rocket launchers. The conflict has resulted in 726 Israeli soldiers killed, 380 of whom died in the initial Hamas-led attacks. Israel reports that 42,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza as a result of its military operations. Over 13,200 rockets have been fired from Gaza into Israel, with additional missile attacks from Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran. Israel has also struck 4,900 targets in Lebanon and arrested 5,000 suspects in the West Bank. Reuters

UN says major crisis unfolds in Lebanon as people flee Israel’s escalating air campaign. United Nations refugee agency chief Filippo Grandi described Lebanon’s situation as a major crisis due to Israel’s escalating air campaign, which has displaced 1.2 million people. Grandi, during a visit to Beirut, said many strikes violated international humanitarian law, damaging civilian infrastructure and cutting off access to a key border crossing with Syria, hindering civilian evacuations. The UN has appealed for $425.7 million to address the humanitarian crisis, but only 40% of the funds have been raised. Israel claims it is targeting Hezbollah, but the violence is forcing both Lebanese citizens and Syrian refugees to flee. Associated Press

Iran's Quds Force chief out of contact since Beirut strikes, Iranian officials say. Iran’s Quds Force commander, Esmail Qaani, has been missing since Israeli airstrikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs last week. Qaani, in Lebanon following the Sept. 27 killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, was reportedly in the area when a strike targeted senior Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddine. Iranian and Hezbollah officials have been unable to contact him. Israel continues to assess the results of the strikes. Hezbollah has claimed Israel is obstructing search and rescue efforts for Safieddine, who was considered a potential successor to Nasrallah. Israeli officials have yet to confirm the details of Qaani's fate. Reuters The Times of Israel Reuters 

Palestinian journalist, 19, killed in Israeli raid after receiving threats. Palestinian journalist Hassan Hamad, 19, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on his home in Gaza's Jabalia refugee camp. Days before his death, Hamad had received threats from an Israeli officer, warning him to stop filming. His death brings the number of Palestinian journalists killed since the war began to 175, according to Gaza’s Government Media Office. The Committee to Protect Journalists says at least 128 journalists and media workers are among the more than 41,000 people killed since Israel launched the devastating war on Gaza in October 2023. Hamad, a freelance TV reporter, had documented the war for over a year, often working under dire conditions. Al Jazeera confirmed that his body was found in pieces after the attack. The Israeli government has yet to comment on the killing, which has sparked protests from Palestinian journalists. Al Jazeera

Policewoman killed, 10 wounded in shooting in southern Israel. A gunman opened fire at a bus station in the southern Israeli city of Beersheba, killing Border Police officer Sgt. Shira Suslik, 19, and wounding 10 others. The attacker, identified as Ahmad al-Uqbi, a Bedouin from the Negev desert region with a criminal record, was shot dead by security forces. The attack, which Israeli authorities labeled a terrorist act, comes as the country remains on high alert ahead of the first anniversary of Hamas’ Oct. 7 assault. This incident follows another deadly attack in Jaffa, intensifying concerns about further violence in Israel.  BBC Reuters Times of Israel 

How the Push to Avert a Broader War in Lebanon Fell Apart. Diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah were progressing until Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Sept. 27. Talks brokered by the U.S., France, and the United Nations had gained tentative support from both sides, with Israel agreeing in principle and Hezbollah signaling approval through intermediaries. However, Israel’s sudden strike on Nasrallah, just after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s UN speech, abruptly ended hopes for a ceasefire. The killing marked a sharp escalation in the conflict, with Israeli officials seeking to push Hezbollah away from the border, triggering fighting in Lebanon. New York Times

Hundreds arrive in southern Turkey via ferry after fleeing Lebanon. A ferry carrying 358 evacuees from Lebanon's Tripoli arrived in southern Turkey's Tasucu port on Sunday. This marks the fourth such evacuation since September 27, with a total of 1,360 people fleeing the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The evacuees included civilians, medics, and Hezbollah fighters, along with several Turkish citizens. Associated Press

Netanyahu tells Macron that putting limits on Israel will strengthen Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told French President Emmanuel Macron Sunday that imposing limits on Israel’s military actions would strengthen Iran and its allies, including Hezbollah and Hamas. Macron had suggested halting arms shipments to Israel as part of efforts for a political solution to the Gaza conflict. Netanyahu argued that Israel's operations against Hezbollah could bring greater stability to Lebanon. Both leaders agreed to continue their discussions during the French foreign minister’s visit to Israel. Macron emphasized the need to prevent Lebanon from becoming further involved in the escalating war. Reuters

Harris reiterates support for Gaza ceasefire as conflict escalates. Vice President Kamala Harris reiterated U.S. diplomatic efforts to pressure Israel and other regional players to reach a ceasefire in Gaza, despite criticism that Washington has not used its leverage. In a "60 Minutes" interview released on Sunday, Harris emphasized the U.S.-Israel alliance while sidestepping questions about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. She reaffirmed U.S. support for Israel’s self-defense and diplomatic efforts. A ceasefire has been elusive, complicated by hostages, prisoner exchanges, and Israel's demands for control near Gaza's Egypt border. The latest bloodshed in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was triggered on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel, killing 1,200 and taking about 250 hostages. Israel's subsequent military assault on the Hamas-governed enclave has killed almost 42,000 Palestinians, according to the local health ministry, while displacing nearly the entire population of 2.3 million. Reuters 

Opinion: What I’m Thinking About on the First Anniversary of the War. Thomas L. Friedman reflects on the first anniversary of the Hamas-Hezbollah-Iran-Israel war. He argues that neither side has achieved a decisive military or narrative victory. Friedman criticizes Hamas's actions and Israel’s lack of a clear post-war plan for Gaza, blaming Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government for failing to articulate a vision beyond military victory. He also highlights the internal political divisions in Israel, particularly Netanyahu’s prioritization of personal political survival over the country's long-term strategic interests, which threatens to unravel Israel's unity and credibility in the ongoing conflict. New York Times

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine braces for Russian push near Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in coming days. Russian forces are preparing for an offensive near Orikhiv and Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukrainian military spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn said Sunday. The push, expected within days, could target Ukraine's logistics routes connecting Zaporizhzhia to eastern Ukraine. Russia has been amassing personnel and logistical support in the region, and Voloshyn predicts small assault groups backed by armored vehicles. Orikhiv, 50 kilometers southeast of Zaporizhzhia, was central to Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive, but no major breakthrough occurred. Moscow continues to claim it has recaptured Robotyne, though Ukraine denies this. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine will never join NATO on my watch, says Slovakia PM Fico. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has a hostile stance toward Ukraine, vowed to block Ukraine's NATO membership as long as he remains in power. Despite NATO’s desire to admit Ukraine after the war, Fico’s position, backed by his control over Slovakia's parliament, could stall the process until at least 2027. Fico’s pro-Russia stance and opposition to supporting Ukraine's defense contrast sharply with NATO's leadership. Last Thursday, Fico promised to “do everything possible to renew economic and standard relations with Russia.” PoliticoEU

Ukraine's Shmyhal discusses energy security with Slovakia's Fico. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal met with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico on Monday to discuss infrastructure cooperation, energy security, and support for Ukraine's peace plan. Shmyhal emphasized Slovakia's role in Ukraine's electricity imports. Fico, a critic of Western military aid to Ukraine, reiterated his call for peace and opposed Ukraine's NATO membership, stressing the need for security guarantees and Ukraine’s sovereignty. Slovakia, reliant on Russian oil and gas transit through Ukraine, is negotiating an extension of its gas transit deal, which is set to expire soon, despite Ukraine’s reluctance to renew it. Reuters

Intense Urban Battles Pit Russian Numbers Against Ukraine’s Agility. The battle for Niu-York, Ukraine, demonstrates Russia’s brutal, attritional combat tactics, resembling World War II's Battle of Stalingrad. The Wall Street Journal tracked the Ukrainian Skala battalion, led by Lt. Col. Yuriy Harkaviy, also known as "Skala," during its defense of the town. Russian soldiers, advancing in waves with little regard for their lives, rely on sheer numbers rather than skill. Despite high-tech warfare tools like drones and precision weapons, ground troops are key in seizing territory. Ukrainian forces, outnumbered but more strategic, counter these attacks with well-coordinated operations, leveraging night vision and fast, decisive strikes. The battle reveals the severe morale issues in Russian ranks, driven by coercion, while Ukrainian units fight with better morale and tactical advantage. Russia’s reliance on mass infantry is a grinding, costly approach. Though Ukraine can reclaim positions, overwhelming Russian numbers and relentless assaults are persistent threats. The war is brutal and draining for both sides. Wall Street Journal

Poland and Ukraine’s bloody past overshadows their anti-Russia alliance. Despite their close alliance against Russia, historical tensions between Poland and Ukraine over the Volhynia Massacre strain relations. During World War II, the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) killed tens of thousands of Poles in an ethnic cleansing effort in Volhynia, a region now part of western Ukraine. Thousands of Ukrainians also died in retaliatory attacks. Poland demands Ukraine admit responsibility, allow exhumations, and properly commemorate the victims, threatening to block Ukraine’s EU membership if these conditions aren’t met. While Ukraine has agreed to consider exhumations, no full resolution has been reached. These unresolved issues continue to test the resilience of their alliance against Russia. PoliticoEU

Alleged journalist Pablo González spied on NATO, Ukrainian military and Poland's largest power plant. Pablo González, a Spanish-Russian national posing as a journalist, is accused of spying for Russian military intelligence (GRU). He infiltrated sensitive locations, including Ukrainian military camps, Poland's largest power plant, and a NATO Assembly, under the guise of a master's thesis and collaboration with the Basque newspaper Gara. Polish authorities arrested him in February 2022, uncovering detailed reports on these operations. González’s activities, which began in 2016, reportedly aimed to gather political and military information for Moscow while covertly promoting Russian narratives. El Mundo

Ukraine repels Russian 'Kinzhal' missile strike on Kyiv during rush hour. Ukraine's air defenses repelled a Russian missile strike targeting Kyiv during Monday morning rush hour. Debris from hypersonic Kinzhal missiles fell in three districts, causing minor damage but no reported casualties. Russia has continued long-range missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, with 15 drones targeting the Kyiv area overnight. These assaults have become a regular occurrence since Russia's invasion. Reuters Kyiv Independent

Ukraine says Russian hypersonic missile hit 'area of' major air base. A Russian hypersonic missile struck on Monday near Ukraine's Starokostiantyniv airbase, often targeted by Russia, with no major damage or casualties reported. Ukraine acknowledged the strike but did not confirm damage to the base. Reuters

Oil depot on fire in Crimea's Feodosia following Ukrainian attack. A large fire broke out at the Feodosia oil depot in Russian-occupied Crimea following a Ukrainian missile attack on October 7, 2024. Ukrainian forces targeted the largest oil terminal in Crimea, used to supply Russia's military. Residents reported hearing explosions before the fire, with no casualties reported. Russian-installed officials confirmed the fire but did not attribute it to an attack. The Marine Oil Terminal, previously hit by drones in March 2024, was reportedly involved. Ukrainian forces have recently escalated strikes on Crimea’s oil facilities, disrupting fuel supplies critical to Moscow’s war efforts. Kyiv Independent Reuters BBC

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 4, injure 33 over the past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed four people and injured at least 33 over the past day, authorities said Monday. Three people were killed in Donetsk Oblast: one in Kostiantynivka, one in Chasiv Yar, and one in the village of Illinka. In Kharkiv Oblast, a man was killed in a drone attack on the village of Pershotravneve. Injuries occurred in multiple regions, including Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted two Kinzhal missiles over Kyiv and 32 drones across various regions, minimizing further damage from the attacks. Kyiv Independent

Russian airstrike Monday against Kherson injures at least 11, including children. A Russian airstrike on Kherson on Monday injured at least 11 people, including two children. The attack involved two KAB bombs hitting the central district and two more striking the northern part of the city. Damage was reported to multi-story buildings. Russia has continued regular attacks on Kherson since its liberation in November 2022. Kyiv Independent

Russia launches attacks on Kyiv and Odesa on Sunday. Russia launched a drone and missile attack across Ukraine, targeting Kyiv and Odesa, officials said Sunday. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 56 out of 87 Shahed drones, though infrastructure in Odesa was damaged, including a warehouse and gas pipeline. In Kyiv, drones attacked the city in multiple waves, according to officials. Russia’s overnight assault followed the downing of a Russian fighter jet near Kostiantynivka by Ukrainian forces a day earlier. One person was killed in Kharkiv, and casualties were also reported in Kherson from Russian strikes over the past 24 hours. PoliticoEU Associated Press

Ukraine shows destruction of Russian Osa anti-aircraft system with FPV drone. Ukraine’s military intelligence unit Kryla ("Wings") used a first-person view (FPV) drone to destroy a Russian Osa anti-aircraft system, a Soviet-era surface-to-air missile system valued at $10 million, officials said Sunday. The drone, costing only a few hundred dollars, successfully rammed into the Osa, which has been used effectively by Russian forces against Ukrainian drones. The attack's location and date remain undisclosed. Ukraine released a video showing the strike and the burning equipment. Earlier that day, Ukraine's military reported Russia had lost 970 air defense systems since the full-scale invasion began. Kyiv Independent

Dutch defense minister pledges €400 million for Ukraine drone plan, confirms supply of F-16s. Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans, in a visit to Kyiv on Sunday, announced a €400 million investment in Ukraine's drone development, with half spent in the Netherlands and the rest in Ukraine and other countries. The plan focuses on developing surveillance, defensive, and offensive drones to support Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Additionally, Brekelmans confirmed the Netherlands will deliver more F-16 jets and provide parts, ammunition, and fuel to keep them operational. This is part of the Netherlands’ broader €10 billion military support for Ukraine since the Russian invasion began, with €4 billion already spent. Reuters

​​Kremlin critic killed in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. Russian anti-Kremlin activist Ildar Dadin, known for his protests against Vladimir Putin, was reportedly killed while fighting alongside Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv region. His death was reported by Russian media on Sunday and confirmed by his friend, exiled former Russian member of parliament Ilia Ponomarev. Dadin, 42, had fought with the "Siberian battalion" and later with the "Freedom Legion of Russia," a group of Russians opposing the Kremlin. Ponomarev praised Dadin as a fearless fighter committed to combating Putinism. Dadin was previously jailed in Russia for his activism before joining Ukraine’s war efforts. South China Morning Post 

Russian court sentences US citizen to six years in prison for fighting for Ukraine. A Moscow court sentenced 72-year-old American Stephen Hubbard to six years and 10 months in prison for allegedly fighting as a mercenary for Ukraine, Russian state media reported on Monday. Hubbard, originally from Michigan, was accused of fighting in Izyum and pleaded guilty to the charges. Russian forces detained him in April 2022. In a separate case, former U.S. marine Robert Gilman received an additional seven years for assaulting Russian law enforcement. Gilman had already been serving a reduced sentence for a 2022 incident involving a police officer. Both trials reflect tensions between Russia and the U.S. amid the war. CNN

Russia has opened criminal cases against 14 foreign journalists for crossing Kursk border, FSB says. Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) has opened criminal cases against 14 foreign journalists since August 17 for allegedly crossing the border between Ukraine and Russia’s Kursk region illegally. Journalists from France 24 and Switzerland's CH Media are the latest under investigation. The charges follow Ukraine's surprise attack on the Kursk region in August. Under Russian law, illegal border crossing can result in up to five years in prison. Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. Russian forces have lost over five divisions' worth of armored vehicles and tanks since October 2023 in their offensive to capture Avdiivka and during operations in western Donetsk Oblast, suffering significant losses for minimal territorial gains. The scale of Russian vehicle losses may become unsustainable due to production limitations, aging stockpiles, and the lack of major strategic advances, forcing a potential shift in military tactics. Ukrainian authorities are investigating the execution of four Ukrainian POWs by Russian forces at a Kharkiv plant. Russian police arrested Yegor Guzenko, a critical Telegram channel administrator, possibly as part of a Kremlin crackdown on dissent.

Battlefield update: Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Pokrovsk. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Tear down the wall of restrictions we’ve built around Ukraine. Estonian President Alar Karis urges the West to remove the self-imposed restrictions on military aid to Ukraine, arguing that these limitations only empower Russia. Drawing parallels to the fall of the Berlin Wall, Karis emphasizes that Western fear and indecision feed the aggressor, while Russia applies no such constraints. He asserts that Ukraine is being forced to fight with one hand tied behind its back and calls for a more assertive stance to ensure Russia cannot achieve its imperial ambitions in Ukraine and Europe. Karis appeals: “Tear down this wall of restrictions.” PoliticoEU

AMERICAS

For Washington’s rivals, November 5th won’t mark the end of drive to influence Americans.  As the U.S. presidential election approaches, foreign adversaries like Russia, Iran, and China, along with domestic extremist groups, may be gearing up their interference with American democracy, particularly in the days following the vote. Disinformation campaigns could intensify once the polls close, with opponents likely to use tactics such as AI-generated videos or misleading images to spread false claims of vote tampering. These efforts could damage public trust in the election results before authorities have time to debunk the claims, and potentially incite real-world action, as seen in the aftermath of the 2020 election. Experts warn that disinformation targeted at swing states could be especially damaging. While foreign interference was a significant issue in the 2016 and 2020 elections, this threat has evolved with the increasing role of social media as a source of information. Intelligence officials, tech companies, and cybersecurity experts underscore the need for vigilance, especially in the critical period leading up to the peaceful transfer of power. U.S. election security officials continue to assure the public that the election system is resilient and cannot be manipulated on a large enough scale to alter the election outcome. However, the risk of disinformation and cyberattacks aimed at undermining confidence in the election remains a serious concern. Associated Press 

Questions arise over whether U.S. Air Force can lessen costs for next-gen fighter jet. The U.S. Air Force is facing a significant and expensive challenge: how to develop its next-gen fighter, the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) platform, with a target cost comparable to or below the F-35's price of $80-100 million per jet. However, the initial estimates for NGAD's development were nearly three times higher, prompting the Air Force to rethink its design and cost strategy. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has underscored the importance of keeping costs down, but experts warn that such “unrealistic” reductions might sacrifice the platform's capabilities, making it less effective in combat. NGAD is intended to replace the F-22 by the 2030s, but its high cost and complexity are causing delays and concerns over feasibility. The Air Force envisages the NGAD program as a "family of systems," including autonomous drones known as Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) to support the fighter jets. The U.S. is reviewing its plans, exploring options to reduce costs without compromising NGAD's critical functions, such as range, speed, and weapon capacity needed for future conflicts. Defense News 

Navy identified aircraft carrier, two submarines affected by faulty shipyard weld work. 

Last week, the U.S. Navy disclosed that faulty welds were found on three vessels at Newport News Shipyard in Virginia: the aircraft carrier George Washington and the newly commissioned attack submarines Hyman G. Rickover and New Jersey. Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro assured Congress that the substandard welding did not compromise ship safety or operations. The issue involved welders who did not follow proper procedures, but there was no indication of malicious intent. The Navy is inspecting 23 other vessels for similar issues and cooperating with a Department of Justice investigation. Newport News Shipbuilding admitted that some welders “knowingly circumvented” protocols and is working with the Navy to address the problem. The shipyard, one of two in the U.S. focusing on nuclear vessels, builds parts for submarines and aircraft carriers. A full review of shipyard operations is underway to prevent future incidents.

Defense News  

Haitian gang massacre prompts prime minister to travel to UAE, Kenya for security aid. Haitian Prime Minister Garry Conille on Saturday traveled to the United Arab Emirates and Kenya to secure security assistance following one of the island nation’s deadliest gang attacks. The Gran Grif gang recently attacked the town of Pont-Sonde, killing at least 70 people, including infants, and displacing over 6,000 residents. The massacre shocked even a country already ravaged by bloodshed, as Haiti’s national police force struggles against gang violence with limited resources. Conille aims to expedite the deployment of Kenyan troops to support local police, as an international force of about 400 mostly Kenyan officers has made limited progress in restoring order. He also seeks assistance from the UAE to back Haiti’s national police. The Artibonite region, where the recent attack occurred, is important for Haiti’s rice production and is largely controlled by gangs. The gang’s leader claimed the attack was in response to civilian passivity in the face of alleged police violence. Reuters Financial Times 

Series of coordinated attacks in Mexico leave 12 dead.A string of coordinated attacks in Salamanca, a city in the violence-ridden Mexican state of Guanajuato, left twelve dead last week, authorities reported. The victims were found at five different locations across the city, and a banner from a drug cartel was left with some bodies. All reportedly bore signs of torture, and one was dismembered. The victims included nine men and three women. This massacre follows another violent incident earlier in the week in which four men were killed at a drug rehabilitation center. Officials are still investigating and have no clear suspects. Guanajuato has been a battleground between the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, which controls urban areas, and the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel, dominant in rural areas. Despite the presence of the National Guard, violence in Salamanca continues. The mayor of Salamanca stressed that the violence is between criminal groups, and does not involve the civilian population. Associated Press CBS

Mayor of violence-ridden Mexican state assassinated days after assuming role.Alejandro Arcos, the newly elected mayor of Chilpancingo, Guerrero, Mexico, was killed on Sunday just six days after taking office. His murder was confirmed by the state's governor, who expressed outrage and sadness. The state's attorney general's office has launched an investigation. Very graphic photos, allegedly of Arcos' body, circulated online, but have not been independently verified. This assassination follows the recent killing of the city government's secretary, Francisco Tapia, three days ago. One Senator called for federal authorities to take over the investigation, citing "the situation of ungovernability in Guerrero." The state has seen high levels of bloodshed against public officials and journalists, with six candidates killed before the June 2 elections. Reuters Associated Press El Sol de Durango  

Mexico’s new game plan on halting cartel violence.Newly elected Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is focused on reducing homicides and weakening the power of organized crime in the country. She is targeting Mexico’s ten most violent cities, such as Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez, and combating fentanyl smuggling, which heavily impacts both Mexico and the U.S. The recent assassination of the mayor of Chilpancingo highlights the severe violence Sheinbaum and her administration must face. Her security plan involves increasing intelligence to assess criminal groups, coordinating with state and federal forces, and using targeted strategies in specific hotspots. She aims to replicate her success in reducing homicides in Mexico City by using police intelligence, improving police training, and boosting U.S.-Mexico cooperation. Her plan targets cities across five states with the highest rates of organized crime violence, including Tijuana, Colima, Acapulco, Guanajuato, and Culiacán, where turf wars and extortion are rampant. The federal government, which plans to address widespread extortion, will also play a larger role by setting national standards for state police and security forces. Wall Street Journal 

Brazilians voting in uneasy local elections.Brazilians began voting in local elections on Sunday to elect mayors, deputy mayors, and councilors across 5,569 municipalities. In São Paulo, the mayoral race is highly competitive, with three main candidates competing in a competition marked by violent incidents. Over 155 million Brazilians are eligible to vote, with 43% of the electorate located in the southeastern region, including São Paulo and Rio. A second round will occur in municipalities with over 200,000 voters if no candidate achieves an absolute majority. Associated Press  Reuters Barron's 

EUROPE

Putin’s ‘Merchant of Death’ Is Back in the Arms Business: This Time Selling to the Houthis. Nearly two years after his release from a U.S. prison in a prisoner swap for basketball star Brittney Griner, Viktor Bout, known as the “Merchant of Death,” is reportedly back in the arms trade. Bout, once infamous for supplying weapons to warlords across Africa, South America, and the Middle East, was arrested in a U.S. sting operation in 2008. Now, he has reemerged, allegedly brokering a deal to sell small arms to Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants. The arms deal, involving automatic rifles and potentially more advanced weaponry, remains a concern for Washington, which opposes any arms transfers to the Houthis. Despite these reports, Bout’s attorney denies his involvement in arms sales. The potential arms transfers stop well short of the sale of Russian anti-ship or anti-air missiles that could pose a threat to the U.S. military’s efforts to protect international shipping from the Houthis’ attacks. Bout remains a vocal supporter of Russia and its war in Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal Reuters 

Hungarians protest 'ruling party propaganda,' demand more media freedom. Thousands of Hungarians protested in Budapest, demanding press freedom and denouncing Prime Minister Viktor Orban's government for running a "propaganda factory." Organized by opposition leader Peter Magyar, head of the Tisza party and former Fidesz member, the Saturday protest targeted the state-owned MTVA media company. Magyar criticized Orban's government for corruption and cronyism, accusing it of using Hitler-style propaganda tactics. Press freedom organizations have long criticized Orban's control over media, turning public broadcasting into state propaganda. Hungary's clashes with the European Union over media freedom have further strained relations, with frozen EU funds linked to rule-of-law concerns.Kyiv Independent

Russian activity in Ireland ‘should come as no surprise,’ says PM Simon Harris. Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris said Sunday that Russian activity in Ireland is unsurprising, following reports that Russian intelligence used a "honeytrap" to recruit an Irish politician as an agent. The Sunday Times revealed this occurred during Brexit negotiations to undermine relations between Britain, Ireland, and the European Union. Harris emphasized the seriousness of the situation but suggested that such actions by Russia are expected. South China Morning Post 

Kremlin says Russia will appoint a new ambassador to the United States. The Kremlin announced it will appoint a new ambassador to the United States, dismissing speculation that relations with Washington are being downgraded as Anatoly Antonov’s term ends. Antonov, a career diplomat, has served in Washington since 2017. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized that a replacement will be appointed promptly despite ongoing tensions over Russia’s war on Ukraine. Antonov, 69, served in Washington since 2017 and played a key role in defending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Known for his military-style negotiation, Antonov has been under European sanctions since 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea. Reuters

'God save the Tsar!': Putin receives first wishes for 72nd birthday. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who turned 72 on Oct. 7, received birthday greetings from ultra-nationalist ideologue Alexander Dugin, with the phrase “God save the Tsar!” Dugin has advocated for the unification of Russian-speaking territories, including Ukraine, which Russia invaded in 2014 and again in 2022. Putin, who won an election in March, is now set to become Russia's longest-serving leader in over 200 years if he serves his six-year term. The West and Ukraine view the war as an imperialistic land grab by a dictator. Reuters

Kremlin says VGTRK state media holding has been victim of a large hacking attack. The Kremlin announced Monday that an "unprecedented" cyberattack hit state media VGTRK, though radio and TV broadcasting continued unaffected. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said specialists are investigating the attack, which he labeled a critical infrastructure target. The attack occurred overnight. Reuters  

Russian court hands down 7 year prison sentence to U.S. citizen on assault charges.Russia’s state-backed news agency RIA reported that on Monday, a Russian court sentenced U.S. citizen Robert Gilman to seven years and one month in prison for allegedly assaulting a prison official and a state investigator. Reuters 

Georgia's ruling party starts impeachment of pro-Western president before election. Georgia's ruling party initiated impeachment proceedings against pro-Western President Salome Zourabichvili, accusing her of unauthorized overseas visits. The move comes ahead of the Oct. 26 parliamentary election, though the party currently lacks enough votes for impeachment. Zourabichvili, a former ally of the Georgian Dream, has become a political opponent, seeking to unite opposition parties. The European Union suspended high-level contact with Georgia amid criticism of Georgian Dream's ties with Russia. Reuters

Detained ex-Russian defense ministry official to face new charges of embezzlement, TASS reports.Former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov faces new charges of embezzling over $33.4 million), in addition to earlier bribery charges. The embezzlement involves transferring funds to Hong Kong and Cyprus companies and purchasing vessels for the Kerch Strait ferry line. Ivanov denies the accusations and could face up to 10 years in prison. Reuters

MIDDLE EAST

Flights from all of Iran's airports canceled from late on Sunday. Iran's state media, citing a spokesperson for Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation, reported that flights from all its airports will be canceled until 6 a.m. local time (0230 GMT) on Monday from 9 p.m. on Sunday. The flights have been canceled due to operational restrictions, state media reported without providing further details. Iran implemented restrictions on flights on Tuesday when it launched missiles at Israel. Reuters

Iran summons Australian ambassador over 'biased stance,' Tasnim reports. Iran summoned Australia's ambassador in Tehran, Ian McConville, on Sunday over what it described as Australia's biased stance on Iran's missile attack against Israel. The attack occurred on Tuesday, with Iran claiming it was in retaliation for the killing of leaders aligned with Iranian-backed armed groups. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

China could wage economic war on Taiwan to force surrender, report says. A new report from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) warns that China could force Taiwan's surrender through economic and cyber warfare, bypassing the need for military action. Based on simulation exercises conducted with banking experts in Taiwan, the report outlines potential non-military tactics, including disinformation campaigns, targeting critical infrastructure, banning imports, and destabilizing Taiwan’s financial system to incite unrest. The study suggests that the U.S. and Taiwan must prepare for these scenarios by strengthening alliances, diversifying Taiwan's energy imports, and enhancing financial resilience. U.S. officials have yet to devise a formal response to these non-military threats. Associated Press

Officials say China will likely conduct military drills around Taiwan following presidential speech.Taiwanese officials believe that China will launch military drills near the self-governing island this week, using Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's upcoming national day speech on October 10 as a pretext to pressure Taipei to accept its sovereignty claims. China has engaged in a consistent pattern of "punishment" drills, and could stage similar exercises soon; a Taiwan security official said it would possibly be named "Joint Sword - 2024B." China might label Lai's speech as a "provocation" to justify the drills, which are considered to be a part of the country’s ongoing "grey-zone operations" to test Taiwan's defenses without actual combat. However, a diplomatic source suggests that it might hold back on a military reaction due to the upcoming U.S. presidential election, as Beijing may not seek to exacerbate tensions in the global spotlight during this period. Reuters 

North Korea and China mark their 75th anniversary of ties as outsiders question their relationship. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Chinese President Xi Jinping exchanged messages Sunday on the 75th anniversary of their diplomatic ties, expressing hopes for stronger relations. Despite their historic alliance, China has kept a distance while North Korea and Russia have strengthened cooperation, raising questions about the future of China-North Korea relations. Observers suggest China prefers regional stability to manage its economic challenges rather than forming an anti-West alliance with North Korea and Russia. North Korea, meanwhile, continues to expand its nuclear and conventional weapons amid confrontations with the U.S. and South Korea. Associated Press South China Morning Post 

Opinion: How Israel's conflict, and Washington’s unwavering support, benefit China's strategic goals.Relations between Israel and China have deteriorated due to a string of factors, particularly Hamas' October 7 terrorist attacks and Israel's overwhelming and escalating military response. Israel, previously optimistic for China's larger role in the Middle East, has been disillusioned by Beijing's defense of Palestinian rights, its criticism of Israel's military actions, and its ties with Iran. Diplomatic tensions between officials from both nations have escalated, and Washington has criticized Beijing for its support of Tehran. For China, the potential for a prolonged U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran and its allies - Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis - could be advantageous. Such a "forever war" would distract the White House, giving China time to focus on its economic recovery and geopolitical interests in the Indo-Pacific in the same way it benefited during Washington’s previous "war on terror." And China's ties with Tehran and Russia are primarily transactional; Beijing remains cautious in fully aligning with either nation, and could extricate itself. The U.S., however, is deeply intertwined with Israel and finds itself compelled to support the state’s controversial actions in the region, even at the cost of its own foreign policy priorities. The situation sheds light on the collapse of President Joe Biden's Middle East policy, as he seems forced to back Israel’s military escalations. This inability to disengage has engendered significant global reputational damage for the U.S. Even future leadership changes are unlikely to shift Washington's dependence on supporting Israel, potentially resulting in further regional instability and a protracted conflict that may benefit China geopolitically. South China Morning Post  

Observers believe China should worry about Japan’s new leader Ishiba. New Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has proposed bold security measures that could impact Japan's relations with China and the U.S., and analysts say Beijing should stay vigilant. Ishiba’s proposals include forming an "Asian NATO" to counter China, revising the Japan-U.S. military treaty, and possibly stationing Japanese troops in Guam. He also suggested reconsidering the region’s nuclear posture. These daring ideas, however, have received a mixed response, with skepticism from Washington and regional players, including India. While Ishiba aims to strengthen Tokyo’s strategic role in the region, analysts argue his proposals lack a clear policy direction and could engender confusion. His approach seems to seek a balance between autonomy from Washington and maintaining the U.S.-Japan alliance. Ishiba also visited Taiwan in August, signaling interest in regional security. Though he was cautious about direct support for Taiwan in case of a Chinese attack, in his first policy speech on Friday he cautioned that “today’s Ukraine could be tomorrow’s East Asia.” Ishiba has also shown interest in improving ties with Beijing through economic engagement, continuing Japan’s dual approach of balancing security concerns while fostering dialogue. His appointment of pro-China Hiroshi Moriyama as LDP secretary general may signal potential for future Beijing-Tokyo cooperation, despite ongoing regional tensions. South China Morning Post  

Taiwan’s former president to make ‘sensitive’ visit to Czech Republic. Former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen is expected to embark for a visit to the Czech Republic in October 12, a sensitive move given Beijing's stance on her as a "separatist." Although the Czech Republic, like most nations, lacks formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, ties have grown closer amid rising tensions between Beijing and Taipei.  Three sources revealed that Tsai, who stepped down from her role in May, will give a speech at the Forum 2000 in Prague and meet with senior Czech and European politicians. The upcoming visit is significant in light of Taiwan’s strengthening ties with Eastern and Central Europe. Due to worries about Chinese espionage and harassment, the trip is considered sensitive, and safety measures are a priority. Tsai is also expected to visit France and Belgium, although details are still being finalized. Tsai is an influential figure in Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which opposes Beijing's sovereignty claims over Taiwan. Unlike Tsai, her predecessor Ma Ying-jeou of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) has engaged with Chinese leaders without facing Beijing’s criticism, as his party advocates closer ties with the Asian giant, even while denying being pro-Beijing. Reuters Taiwan News Focus News 

South Korea, Philippines, scale up relations to strategic partnership. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol met in Manila on Monday, where they announced the upgrading of their bilateral ties to a strategic partnership. This event marks the first advancement of ties in 75 years, when the two nations established diplomatic relations. The two leaders discussed key issues, including the fiercely disputed South China Sea and the Korean peninsula, and signed agreements on coast guard cooperation and nuclear energy. They also pledged to collaborate on military modernization in the Philippines and uphold a rules-based international order, especially regarding navigation safety in contested regional waters. Both leaders condemned North Korea’s nuclear program and its provocations. Yoon is expected to continue his Southeast Asia tour with visits to Singapore and Laos. Reuters Yonhap News Agency Korea Times 

Thailand’s PM says ASEAN must help settle Myanmar crisis.Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on Monday urged the regional bloc ASEAN to take a leading role in ending Myanmar's ongoing civil war ahead of the group's summit in Laos. Myanmar has been embroiled in bloodshed since the military conducted a coup in February 2021, sparking an armed rebellion. Paetongtarn stressed the need for ASEAN to bring peace to Myanmar, with Thailand planning to work with Malaysia, the upcoming ASEAN chair, to seek a diplomatic resolution. Despite efforts such as ASEAN's Five Point Consensus peace plan, little progress has been made, as Myanmar's military junta refuses to engage in talks with opposition groups. The conflict, which has left a third of Myanmar's population in need of humanitarian aid, will be a key topic at the summit. ASEAN continues to exclude the junta from its meetings due to non-compliance with the peace plan, and recent international efforts, including a meeting hosted by Indonesia, aim to address the crisis. Reuters 

Indian troops kill 31 suspected Maoist rebels in forest battle. Indian troops killed at least 31 suspected Maoist rebels in a nine-hour battle in Chhattisgarh's Abhujmaad forest, a region known for insurgent activity. The operation targeted nearly 50 rebels, with no reported troop casualties. The Maoists, also known as Naxalites, have waged an insurgency since 1967, fighting for land, jobs, and wealth redistribution for India’s impoverished indigenous communities, particularly in mineral-rich yet underdeveloped states like Chhattisgarh. The rebels draw support from neglected villagers by promising a better future. The conflict remains one of India's longest-running internal disputes, with frequent violent clashes. Associated Press

‘Terrorist attack' kills two Chinese nationals in Pakistan.The Chinese embassy in Pakistan has announced the killing of two Chinese citizens in a Sunday night blast near Karachi's international airport. At least 10 people were wounded in the explosion, and a third body, believed to be that of the perpetrator, was discovered. The embassy has labeled the incident a "terrorist attack," that targeted a convoy of Chinese engineers engaged on a power project in Pakistan's Sindh province. The separatist militant group Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for the alleged suicide attack, naming the attacker and stating that they used a vehicle-borne explosive targeting Chinese nationals. Details of the explosion were still unclear. The Chinese embassy condemned the attack and said it is cooperating with Pakistani authorities. The BLA, which seeks independence for Balochistan, has previously targeted Chinese interests in the region, accusing Beijing of exploiting the province's resources. There are thousands of Chinese workers stationed in Pakistan. Reuters BBC Guardian Associated Press   

Samoa says fuel spill likely following sinking of New Zealand navy ship. Samoa’s acting prime minister has said that a fuel spill in waters off the coast of the island nation is "highly probable,” following the sinking of a New Zealand navy ship, the HMNZS Manawanui, on Sunday. The vessel sank after grounding on a reef, catching fire, and taking on water. All 75 people on board, including civilian scientists and foreign military personnel, were safely evacuated in challenging conditions, with some passengers treated for minor injuries. Officials are assessing the environmental impact of an oil spill, which could have a devastating impact. Residents reported smelling a strong odor of burning oil when the vessel ran aground, before eventually catching fire. The cause of the accident is suspected to be a loss of power. The ship, in service for New Zealand since 2019 but previously owned by Norway, was conducting a survey of a reef near Samoa's Upolu island when it sank. Wellington will hold a court of inquiry into the incident, and efforts are underway to address the environmental risks. This sinking further exacerbates concerns about the aging state of New Zealand’s military fleet. Associated Press CNN Samoa Observer 

AFRICA

Tunisia’s autocratic leader is poised to steamroll to election victory. Tunisia’s President Kais Saied is poised to win re-election Sunday in a vote where his main rivals are imprisoned or disqualified. Since his 2019 election, Saied has consolidated power, dissolving parliament, rewriting the constitution, and jailing political opponents, which rights groups decry as undoing Tunisia’s post-Arab Spring democratic gains. Despite plummeting voter turnout and economic woes—marked by shortages and a strained state budget—Saied maintains support from some who view him as battling corruption. Critics argue that Saied's growing authoritarianism has stifled free speech and eroded judicial independence, returning Tunisia to the days of autocratic rule and economic hardship.  New York Times Reuters South China Morning Post 

Ghanaian President Akufo-Addo says security in Sahel has ‘worsened’ since French troops left. Ghana's President Nana Akufo-Addo expressed concern over worsening security in the Sahel since French troops left in 2023. In an interview with France 24, he called the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) a setback. He criticized the military juntas in these countries for refusing to return to democratic rule. He emphasized the need for these nations to rejoin ECOWAS to stabilize the region. Akufo-Addo also celebrated Ghana’s recent debt restructuring agreement, dismissing opposition criticism about electoral flaws and accusations of suppressing protests. France 24 

Rwanda’s foreign minister claims Congo refused to sign deal to ease M23 conflict.Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe said that Congo refused to sign a deal aimed at easing the M23 rebel conflict in eastern Congo, which has displaced over 1.7 million people. The agreement, negotiated in August, sought to neutralize the Hutu-led FDLR rebel group and lift Rwanda's defense measures. Congo objected to the timing of actions against the FDLR, insisting they occur simultaneously with Rwanda easing its defenses. Rwanda denies supporting M23, while Congo accuses it of backing the rebels. Despite efforts from French President Emmanuel Macron, tensions remain too high for a meeting between leaders of the two nations. Reuters

Rwanda launches Marburg vaccine campaign to halt fatal outbreak. Rwanda has launched vaccinations to combat an outbreak of the Marburg virus, a deadly Ebola-like disease that has claimed 12 lives since being detected in late September. The vaccination effort, targeting healthcare workers and close contacts of confirmed cases, began with doses from the Sabin Vaccine Institute. The outbreak, with 46 reported cases and a fatality rate of up to 88%, has prompted strict measures, including restrictions on hospital visits and funerals. The virus, transmitted by fruit bats and human contact, has caused outbreaks in neighboring countries, raising regional concerns about its spread. Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera BBC 

Opinion: Bullets and bombs can’t bury ideologies in Somalia. Mohamed Gabobe argues the Somali government's offensive against al-Shabab, an Islamist militant group affiliated with al-Qaeda, is faltering due to divisive strategies like arming clan militias. Al-Shabab, which seeks to establish an Islamic state governed by Sharia law, has been waging an insurgency since the mid-2000s in response to foreign military interventions. Initially, the government made gains by pushing al-Shabab out of key areas, but empowering tribal militias has deepened clan-based violence and undermined social cohesion. The decision to invite foreign troops, seen by many Somalis as an occupation, has further alienated the population and strengthened al-Shabab’s narrative. Al Jazeera  

Mozambique headed for crucial elections amid jihadist insurgency and drought-induced hunger. Mozambique is set to hold critical elections as it faces a jihadist insurgency in its oil-rich Cabo Delgado province and severe drought-induced hunger. Nearly 17 million voters will choose a new president, with the ruling Frelimo party expected to win again. Candidates, including Frelimo’s Daniel Chapo, have made ending violence a priority, though no detailed plans have emerged. Corruption, unemployment, and poverty also dominate the campaign, with 1.3 million people facing severe food shortages. The country remains in financial crisis due to a past corruption scandal, and concerns about election integrity persist amid a history of fraud allegations. Associated Press 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

U.S. Wiretap Systems Targeted in China-Linked Hack. A cyberattack linked to China, known as Salt Typhoon, infiltrated U.S. broadband providers, including AT&T and Verizon, compromising wiretap systems used for court-authorized surveillance. The attack has been active for months and poses a national security risk by potentially exposing sensitive information from criminal and national security investigations. The breach targeted U.S. infrastructure and possibly extended to service providers outside the U.S. Investigators are still assessing the extent of data exfiltration. This attack is part of China’s broader espionage efforts, which U.S. officials warn could enable disruptive cyberattacks in future conflicts. Microsoft and other cybersecurity firms are investigating the breach. Wall Street Journal South China Morning Post Reuters 

U.N. warns Telegram hosting 'underground markets' for Southeast Asian crime organizations.  A U.N. report released on Monday reveals that criminal networks in Southeast Asia extensively use the messaging platform Telegram to carry out large-scale illicit activities, including trading hacked data, selling cybercrime tools, and offering money laundering services via unlicensed cryptocurrency exchanges. Telegram's encrypted nature and sprawling, poorly moderated channels have allowed organized crime groups to operate with ease. The report notes the rise of underground data markets on the platform, which are increasingly targeting transnational crime groups in Southeast Asia, a hub for fraudulent schemes generating billions of dollars annually. The report stresses that criminals have integrated advanced technologies like deepfakes and AI into their operations, further increasing the risk to consumer data. Reuters 

Google’s Grip on Search Slips as TikTok and AI Startup Mount Challenge. Google’s dominance in the $300 billion search advertising market is slipping as competitors like TikTok and Perplexity gain. TikTok’s new ad feature allows targeting based on search queries, directly challenging Google. Meanwhile, Perplexity, backed by Jeff Bezos, plans to introduce ads in its AI-generated search answers. Amazon has also captured a growing portion of search ad spending. Google’s U.S. market share is expected to drop below 50% in 2025, marking a pivotal shift. This competition represents a positive development for advertisers seeking alternatives, but Google remains a dominant force with substantial resources. Wall Street Journal

Microsoft’s AI Story Is Getting Complicated. Microsoft's AI efforts are becoming increasingly complex, causing investor concerns. While the company saw massive gains from its early investments in generative AI, maintaining its lead is costly. Capital spending surged to $55.7 billion in 2024, affecting free cash flow and increasing depreciation costs. Additionally, Microsoft's financial reporting changes complicate tracking its AI revenue, especially for its Azure cloud services. Moreover, competition in the AI space is intensifying, and Microsoft’s close ties to OpenAI, which is facing internal turmoil, add to uncertainty. While not necessarily negative, the challenges threaten Microsoft's future growth. Wall Street Journal

FAA authorizes Oct 7 flight for SpaceX Falcon 9 vehicle. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has authorized SpaceX to resume Falcon 9 launches for the Hera mission on Oct. 7 after grounding the rocket due to a second-stage malfunction during a Crew-9 mission. The malfunction led to the booster falling outside the approved safety zone. Hera, a European Space Agency mission, will study the effects of NASA’s 2022 DART impact with the asteroid Dimorphos as part of a planetary defense test. SpaceX and the FAA have been publicly at odds over safety concerns and fines. Reuters Space.com 

VW CEO: Chinese automakers should be allowed to avert tariffs by investing in EU. Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume suggested that the European Union should offer tariff exemptions for Chinese automakers that invest in Europe rather than imposing punitive tariffs on China-made electric vehicles. He warned that retaliatory tariffs from China could harm European carmakers. Despite German opposition, the EU plans to impose tariffs on Chinese EVs to counter perceived unfair subsidies. Reuters

Trump said he plans to impose 200% tariff on Mexican-imported vehicles.Republican nominee Donald Trump, speaking during a Wisconsin rally on Sunday, proposed imposing tariffs as high as 200% on vehicles imported from Mexico to protect the U.S. auto industry. This is a significant increase from his earlier pledge of a 100% tariff. Trump’s increasingly protectionist stance comes as he faces Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in a close race ahead of the November 5 election, with battleground states like Wisconsin playing a crucial role. Trump argued that these tariffs would prevent cars from entering the U.S., but experts warn that such a move would raise vehicle prices for both imports and domestically-made cars. Mexico exported around 3 million vehicles to the U.S. in 2023, and a large tariff could severely impact the industry. Reuters

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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