Report for Monday, October 14, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Monday, October 14, 2024

Pentagon:  US to send troops and anti-missile system to Israel

Kyiv considering ceding territory to end war with Russia, Der Spiegel reports

Mystery of Russia's secret weapon downed in Ukraine

Pentagon baffled by series of mystery drone sightings over U.S. military base for 17 days.

Vladimir Putin’s spies are plotting global chaos

Belarus supports Russian nuclear policy shift, says changes will “cool the ardor" of the West.

China launches massive drills near Taiwan, says it is 'prepared for battle.

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Why the ‘Cold War’ With China is Different – and Potentially More DangerousThe Cipher Brief 

The Axis of Authoritarians – and A Dangerous WorldThe Cipher Brief 

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Four Israeli soldiers killed in Hezbollah drone attack.  A Hezbollah drone attack on an Israeli army base near Binyamina city south of Haifa killed four soldiers and severely wounded seven others Sunday, in one of the deadliest strikes against Israeli forces since Israel launched its ground invasion of Lebanon nearly two weeks ago.  Hezbollah called the attack retaliation for Israeli strikes on Beirut on Thursday that killed 22 people. It said it targeted Israel’s elite Golani brigade with dozens of missiles and “squadrons” of drones. Israel’s national rescue service said the attack wounded 61, an unusually high number, given Israel’s advanced air-defense systems. said in a statement that it is investigating.  Haaretz reported that the Israeli Defense Forces is investigating why sirens weren’t activated before the attack and why the drone wasn’t intercepted. After the attack, the IDF said it intercepted a second drone launched from Lebanon over the Mediterranean Sea, near the Haifa Bay. Haaretz reported that the initial IDF investigation indicated that the tracking system picked up two drones entering Israel via the sea. One was intercepted but the other drone was lost until it hit the base cafeteria.   Earlier in the day, 28 soldiers were wounded by anti-tank fire in two separate incidents in Lebanon.  Haaretz reported that on Sunday, more than 145 rockets were fired from Lebanon into northern Israel and that Hezbollah had depleted its missile stock, with about a third of its medium- and short-range missiles remaining.   Associated Press  Bloomberg  IDF/Telegram   IDF/Telegram  Haaretz   

Analysis: The US is letting the Israel-Lebanon conflict play out. The Biden administration has backed away from trying to negotiate a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Reuters reported.  Instead, it has stopped calling for a quick end to fighting. "We do support Israel launching these incursions to degrade Hezbollah's infrastructure so ultimately we can get a diplomatic resolution," State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told a press briefing last week. The new approach allows the U.S. to step aside as Israel continues to weaken Hezbollah.  Realistically, it’s unlikely the U.S. can hold back the Israeli government’s determination to degrade Hezbollah. Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. Middle East negotiator, said Washington “probably thought, 'Let’s make a virtue out of necessity'."  If Israel succeeds, a weaker Hezbollah could reduce Tehran's influence in the region and could allow the establishment of a new, stronger government in Lebanon.  Reuters 

Israeli tanks push into northern Gaza, killing at least 22 Palestinians.  Israeli deeper tanks rolled into the north edge of Gaza City, pounding some districts of the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood.  Early Monday, Palestinian medics said, an Israeli air strike killed three people and wounded 40 others on the grounds of Al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir Al-Balah, where a million people were sheltering. Social medics showed tents burning. The Israeli military said it struck Hamas fighters operating from a command center inside the compound and accused Hamas of using hospitals for military purposes. Nine days into a major Israeli operation in northern Gaza, the Hamas-run Gaza government media office said Israeli strikes had killed around 300 Palestinians there.  Later on Sunday, medics said.  Israeli tank shelling killed at least 22 Palestinians taking shelter in Nuseirat camp in central Gaza.   Reuters  Reuters  Reuters BBC   Euronews  Politico   Reuters

UN peacekeepers shelled by Israel.  The U.N. said Sunday that Israeli tanks burst into a base  of its UNIFIL peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon before dawn Sunday morning, and then shells exploded 100 yards away, releasing smoke that sickened U.N. personnel.  The Israeli military responded that militants of the Iran-backed group Hezbollah had fired anti-tank missiles at Israeli troops, wounding 25 of them, in an attack very close to a UNIFIL post and a tank helping evacuate the casualties under fire backed into the UNIFIL post. "It is not storming a base. It is not trying to enter a base. It was a tank under heavy fire, mass casualty event, backing up to get out of harm's way," the military's international spokesperson Nadav Shoshani told reporters.   Reuters   

Iranian minister says his country doesn’t want war but will defend its people.   Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in a post on X Sunday, said his country would do anything necessary to defend itself against Israel.  “We have no red lines in defending our people and interests,” Araghchi said.  Israel is expected to retaliate soon for Iran’s Oct. 1 missile attack on Israel. On Sunday Araghchi met with Iraqi foreign minister Fuad Hussein, who also opposes expansion of the Mideast war to Iran. At a joint press conference, Aragchi said that Iran would continue consultations “to prevent the escalation of tension in the region and to work for peace and [a] cease-fire” in the region.  He said Iran was “fully prepared for a war situation ... but we do not want war, we want peace.”   Politico  France 24   Times of Israel   

Hamas documents seized by Israel show Hamas wanted Iran to join the Oct. 7 attack.  Minutes of Hamas’s secret meetings, seized by the Israeli military and obtained by The New York Times, Washington Post and others show that Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas military leader who planned the Oct. 7 attack, tried to persuade Hamas’s allies, Iran and Hezbollah, to join the assault or at least commit to a broader fight with Israel.  The documents show extensive efforts to deceive Israel about its intentions as Hamas planned the groundwork for a bold assault and a regional conflagration that Mr. Sinwar hoped would cause Israel to “collapse.”  The papers show that Hamas’s leaders plotted a wave of terrorist assaults against Israel — potentially including a Sept. 11-style toppling of a Tel Aviv skyscraper.   New York Times  Washington Post  

Pentagon:  US to send troops and anti-missile system to Israel. Pentagon spokesperson Major General Patrick Ryder said Sunday that U.S. troops will deploy to Israel with an advanced U.S. anti-missile system to bolster the country's air defenses following missile attacks by Iran. U.S. President Joe Biden said the move was meant "to defend Israel." which is weighing an expected retaliation against Iran after Tehran fired more than 180 missiles at Israel on Oct 1. The United States has been privately urging Israel to limit its response to avoid triggering a broader war in the Middle East, officials say. t6y6Biden publicly voicing his opposition to an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear sites and his concerns about a strike on Iran's energy infrastructure.  Reuters Politico

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Kyiv considering ceding territory to end war with Russia, Der Spiegel reports. Ukraine is reportedly weighing options to temporarily suspend its goal of reclaiming all occupied territory, Der Spiegel reported on Sunday, citing an official close to Kyiv’s government. The official acknowledged “serious discussions” are underway about relinquishing full territorial restoration. “We believed that victory had to mean the unconditional surrender of Putin’s Russia,” the official said, adding that this was a “mistaken view of victory” and that an end to the war would require concessions favorable to Russia. War fatigue is playing a role. People “don’t really want to fight anymore,” the official said. So is uncertainty over U.S. support—whether under Donald Trump or Kamala Harris—have heightened pressure on Kyiv. The official expressed concern that “Americans will slowly but surely withdraw” as Ukraine approaches a third full year of war on Feb. 22, 2025.  While President Volodymyr Zelensky maintains that all occupied regions must be liberated, the Financial Times reported the idea of a “West German” model—abandoning territorial recovery in exchange for NATO membership—is gaining traction. Polling from July found 55% of Ukrainians still oppose territorial concessions, down from 74% in December 2023. Der Spiegel Novaya Gazeta Europe Kyiv Independent Ukrainska Pravda

Four Ways Ukraine’s Drone Innovations Are Changing Warfare. Ukraine’s drone innovations are reshaping warfare in four significant ways: Drone-on-Drone Warfare–Ukraine has developed drones to intercept and destroy Russian reconnaissance drones, reducing Russia’s ability to gather intelligence. By using drones, cheaper and more agile than conventional air defenses, Ukraine has made it harder for Russia to coordinate artillery strikes. Dragon’s Breath Drones–These drones drop thermite, an incendiary compound that can burn through tree cover, equipment, and supplies. This exposes Russian troops hiding in forested areas, forcing them out of cover for follow-up attacks. Grenade-Launching Drones–Ukraine has modified quadcopters to fire grenade launchers, allowing them to strike targets without being jammed. These drones can engage targets from a distance, reducing the risk to Ukrainian soldiers in close combat. Mother Ship Drones–Larger drones like the Vampire carry smaller FPV drones or munitions over longer distances. These versatile drones can deliver supplies, plant mines, or drop explosives, extending Ukraine’s operational range. Russia is adapting, but Ukraine’s tech-driven tactics are keeping it ahead in the evolving drone war. Wall Street Journal New York Times

Inside Ukraine’s Defense Tech Revolution. Nataliia Kushnerska, project lead at Ukraine's Brave1 defense tech platform, highlights Ukraine’s defense technology revolution during Russia's full-scale invasion. Since 2022, Ukraine’s defense tech sector has surged, evolving from grassroots innovation to a sophisticated industry. With over 1,200 developers, Ukraine leads advancements in drones, electronic warfare, and artificial intelligence, testing innovations in battlefield conditions. Kushnerska emphasizes the need for more investment to fuel continued growth and innovation in Ukraine’s defense tech industry. Business Ukraine

Ukraine boosting its defense industries with a little help from friends. The European Union’s $440 million investment in Ukraine’s defense industry, drawn from frozen Russian assets, aims to boost local production but cannot replace Western military support. Denmark’s $190 million contribution complements this effort. While Ukraine’s arms production has surged, including drones, it remains reliant on Western aid to counter Russia. The Danish-led model allows Ukraine to prioritize critical weapons. Officials hope this investment will reduce pressure on Western suppliers and foster joint ventures with firms like Rheinmetall. However, Ukraine’s output still falls short of Russia’s. Washington Post

Russia’s illicit Starlink terminals help power its advance in Ukraine. Russia’s use of illicit Starlink terminals has strengthened its offensive in Ukraine by improving battlefield coordination, increasing drone sorties, and enhancing artillery precision. Despite U.S. sanctions, a black market has emerged, supplying Russian forces with these terminals, which were initially a game-changer for Ukrainian troops. Ukrainian soldiers say Russia’s adoption of Starlink has closed Kyiv’s technological edge, contributing to recent losses, including in Vuhledar. The problem has reignited frustration toward SpaceX’s Elon Musk, with soldiers criticizing his favorable views toward Russia. Although SpaceX deactivates unauthorized terminals, controlling Starlink use in contested areas remains challenging due to shifting front lines. The U.S. and Ukraine are working to curb Russia’s access, but soldiers report increasing Russian reliance on Starlink for precision drone strikes and operations. Washington Post

Russia says it is ramping up AI-powered drone deployments in Ukraine. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said Friday that AI-enabled drones are playing a crucial role on the Ukrainian battlefield, with two units deployed in eastern Ukraine and Russia’s Belgorod and Kursk regions. These drones, equipped with AI-powered image recognition, can autonomously lock onto and steer toward targets. Russia plans to form five additional units for drone missions. Russia wants to boost drone production tenfold to 1.4 million units this year. Reuters

Russia may have moved MiG-31 jets to Belarus to evade Ukrainian strikes. Russia’s relocation of MiG-31 jets to Belarus raises concerns that it aims to shield its aircraft from Ukrainian strikes and prepare for new missile attacks. The MiG-31s, capable of launching Kinzhal missiles with a 2,000-kilometer range, place all of Ukraine at risk and expand their operational range by being closer to the front. Ukrainian air defenses struggle to intercept these missiles. Analysts warn the move could signal preparations for large-scale attacks similar to those that targeted Ukraine’s energy grid in 2023. Kyiv Independent RBC-Ukraine

Mystery of Russia's secret weapon downed in Ukraine. Ukraine recently downed Russia’s advanced S-70 Okhotnik (Hunter) stealth drone near Kostyantynivka, marking the first known use of this weapon in the war. The 22-ton, unmanned aircraft has an estimated range of 3,700 miles. It can carry bombs and rockets and work in conjunction with Russia’s Su-57 fighter jets, one of which was escorting it when It lost control, likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare, prompting its destruction by a Russian jet to prevent capture. Despite its failure, the incident highlights Russia's efforts to innovate militarily. Ukrainian forces are now examining the wreckage for valuable intelligence on the drone's capabilities and limitations. BBC New York Post The Independent

The Ukrainian Army Spotted A Lone Russian Soldier Out In The Open—And Then Tested A Deadly New Drone On Him. The Ukrainian army’s 118th Mechanized Brigade recently tested a new guided first-person-view (FPV) drone on a lone Russian soldier in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulting in a direct hit and the soldier’s death. Unlike earlier drones, which relied heavily on operator skill, this new FPV model automatically uses artificial intelligence to target human outlines in the flight's final moments. Ukraine and Russia are deploying AI-assisted drones in the war, transforming the battlefield with precision strikes. Forbes

Ukraine's Explosive New Strategy Exposes Russia's Achilles' Heel. Since late summer, Ukraine has ramped up its attacks on Russian ammunition depots, aiming to disrupt Moscow’s supply lines and weaken its offensive capabilities. These strikes have targeted vital facilities in Russia's Voronezh, Tver, Bryansk, and Krasnodar regions, as well as the annexed Crimea. Ukraine’s intelligence agency claims to have destroyed thousands of tons of munitions, including those supplied by North Korea. While these efforts strain Russia’s logistics, Kyiv remains limited by the lack of Western approval to use long-range weapons, which could enhance its ability to cripple Russia’s supply chains at scale. Newsweek Euronews

Russian Tu-134 transport aircraft set ablaze over 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine, military intelligence claims. A Russian Tu-134 military transport aircraft was destroyed by fire at Orenburg-2 airfield early Sunday, according to Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR). The aircraft, used to transport Russian Defense Ministry officials, belonged to the 117th Military Transport Aviation Regiment. HUR did not claim responsibility but warned of retribution for crimes against Ukraine. Orenburg is 1,250 kilometers from the front line in Ukraine. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine's growth in its military capability is a sign it can prevail. Ukraine's growing military capabilities indicate its ability to eventually prevail against Russia, according to Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based Bruegel think tank. Recent Ukrainian innovations, like the use of long-range drone strikes targeting Russian facilities, demonstrate this growth. Kirkegaard said Ukraine's success relies on sustained Western support. He argues that Ukraine’s membership in the European Union is critical, with its expanding domestic military production enhancing its role as a key defense partner for Europe. Euronews

ANALYSIS–Ukraine Faces Bleak Winter as Russia Ramps Up Assaults, US Support Trickles In. Ukraine faces mounting challenges as Russia intensifies its offensive and the U.S. hesitates on providing decisive support. With winter approaching, Russian missile and drone attacks are targeting Ukraine’s power grid, triggering energy disruptions. On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces are stretched thin, losing ground in key areas like Vuhledar while trying to maintain defensive positions in strategic cities such as Chasiv Yar. Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelensky's appeals for advanced weapons and long-range missiles, such as ATACMS, have received lukewarm responses from Western allies. U.S. leaders are divided, with some urging a cautious approach amid uncertainty ahead of the U.S. presidential election. A potential Donald Trump victory has raised fears that Ukraine could face pressure to negotiate, leaving territory in Russian hands. Despite setbacks, Ukraine remains determined to resist concessions, viewing victory as essential to ensuring sovereignty and long-term security. However, dwindling resources and wavering international support are straining Ukraine’s military and civilian resilience as the war barrels to the end of its third year. Wall Street Journal RFE/RL

Ukraine braces for winter amid potential Russian strikes targeting nuclear power. Ukraine faces a challenging winter as Russia escalates attacks on energy infrastructure, focusing on nuclear plants. Already losing 9 gigawatts of power this year, Ukraine's three remaining operational nuclear plants, supplying 60% of its electricity, are now targets. Russian strikes on nearby substations risk cutting these plants off from the grid, which could lead to power outages of up to 18 hours daily. Ukraine is racing to restore energy capacity and build protective structures while relying on air defenses and energy imports. Kyiv Independent

Zelensky says Ukrainian forces are holding positions in Russia's Kursk region. President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly address Saturday that Ukrainian forces are holding positions in Russia’s Kursk region despite Russian efforts to dislodge them. Zelensky acknowledged that the incursion into Kursk aimed to divert Russian troops from eastern Ukraine, where the Kremlin has gained ground. He noted tough conditions in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. Russia claimed the capture of Ostrivske village near Kurakhove. Ukrainian authorities reported heavy clashes near Kurakhove and Pokrovsk, along with Russian air-supported assaults in Toretsk. Russian strikes killed two civilians near Kurakhove. Reuters

North Korea Sending People to Russian Army, Zelensky Says. Russia is strengthening its military ties with North Korea, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned. "We see an increasing alliance between Russia and regimes like North Korea," Zelensky said in his nightly address on Sunday. "This is no longer just about transferring weapons. It is actually about transferring people from North Korea to the occupying military forces." Bloomberg PoliticoEU

Russia says it fired glide bombs at Ukrainian troops in the Kursk border region. Russian glide bombs have struck Ukrainian troops near the border of Russia's western Kursk region, the Russian defense ministry said on Sunday. It said the attack was directed against "a strongpoint and concentration of Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel" and a Russian Su-34 warplane delivered the bombs. Reuters

Nearly 37,000 residents evacuated from Sumy Oblast, military says. Nearly 37,000 residents have been evacuated from Sumy Oblast under expanded mandatory evacuation orders due to intensified Russian attacks, with efforts ongoing to evacuate more. Located on Ukraine’s northeast border, Sumy faces daily bombardments, including guided aerial bombs from Russian forces. All residents within a 10-kilometer zone along the Russian border have already been evacuated. Authorities plan to evacuate 45,000 people altogether. On Sunday, Russia launched attacks on six Sumy communities, causing 21 explosions, part of a broader escalation involving hundreds of daily blasts in the region. Kyiv Independent

Russia says more than 30,000 evacuated from areas bordering Ukraine.Russia's human rights commissioner, Tatyana Moskalkova, reported that 30,415 people have been evacuated from border areas due to Ukrainian shelling. These evacuees are housed in nearly 1,000 temporary centers across Russia. Moskalkova claimed over 1,000 people from Kursk remain unaccounted for, allegedly taken by Ukrainian forces. She also mentioned inspecting 2,000 Ukrainian POWs, while her Ukrainian counterpart conducted similar visits. Reuters

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 5, injure 8 over past day. Russian attacks against Ukraine killed five people and injured eight others over the past day, authorities said on Monday. Four people were killed in the town of Chasiv Yar and in the villages of Zvanivka and Vyshneve in Donetsk Oblast, while three were injured in the region. In Kherson Oblast, one person was killed and four injured. A man was also injured in Kharkiv Oblast’s Kupyansk. Kyiv Independent

Shelling Kills Several In Eastern Ukraine As Drone Strikes Reported In Western Russia. Russian shelling killed five Ukrainian civilians across Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, authorities said Saturday. In Donetsk, three were killed. In Kharkiv, a man was killed in Kozachia Lopan and another in Kupyansk. Russian strikes damaged civilian and medical facilities in Kherson, which remains under attack despite being liberated in 2022. Ukraine's air force said that air defenses shot down 24 of the 28 drones launched by Russia at the Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolayiv, and Kherson regions. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones attacked the Russian regions of Belgorod and Krasnodar, wounding three people. RFE/RL

Russia says Ukraine Withdrawing From 'Dire' Situation in Toretsk. Ukrainian forces are reportedly conducting a partial withdrawal from Toretsk amid intense street fighting, Russian state media reported on Sunday. Russia's military aims to capture Toretsk, positioned north of Avdiivka and southwest of Bakhmut, to gain strategic control over logistics routes in Donetsk. Conflicting reports emerged, with some Ukrainian officials stating Russia controls only parts of the city, while others noted 50-60% is occupied. Russia has heavily bombarded Toretsk with artillery before launching infantry assaults, using tactics seen elsewhere in Donetsk. Newsweek

Ukraine Faces a Double Threat if Russia Takes Pokrovsk. The battle for Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine poses dual risks—military and economic. As Russian forces edge closer to the city, Ukraine faces the potential loss of a key logistics hub and a vital coking-coal supply crucial for its steel industry, which has already shrunk drastically since the war began. Pokrovsk’s fall would further cripple Ukraine’s steel production, potentially cutting output to 2-3 million tons annually, compared to 21.4 million in 2021. Losing this coal would force Ukraine to rely on costly imports, making its steel exports uncompetitive in global markets. The loss of Pokrovsk could open a path for Russia’s advance westward, threatening Ukraine’s industrial heartland and complicating efforts to establish new defensive lines. Foreign Policy The Economist BBC

Russia says it captures another village near Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine. Russia's defense ministry claimed Sunday that its forces seized Mykhailivka in eastern Ukraine, advancing toward the strategic Donetsk Oblast hub of Pokrovsk. Meanwhile, Ukraine reported repelling 36 Russian assaults in the Pokrovsk area, including near Mykhailivka. Reuters

Russian strike on Odesa port kills 1, injures 8, damages civilian vessels on Monday. Russia launched a missile strike Monday on the port infrastructure of Odesa, killing one person and injuring eight, Governor Oleh Kiper reported. Two civilian vessels, NS Moon and Optima, were damaged, with the latter previously targeted on October 7. Minister Oleksii Kuleba highlighted that Russia's attacks aim to disrupt Ukrainian exports and provoke a global food crisis. Over the past three months, nearly 60 attacks have damaged 300 port facilities and 22 vessels, killing or injuring over 80 civilians. Kyiv Independent

Odesa chief says Ukraine ports are impossible to defend from attack. Odesa's regional head, Oleh Kiper, said Ukraine's three Black Sea ports are “impossible" to fully defend due to their large area as Russian missile attacks intensify. A recent strike killed four people, marking the fourth attack in five days. Kiper emphasized that Odesa’s air defenses prioritize the city but cannot cover all ports, which span over 80 kilometers. Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba reported that 60 attacks in three months have damaged or destroyed nearly 300 port facilities, aiming to hurt Ukraine’s economy and discourage ships from entering Ukrainian waters. BBC

Ukraine's ‘Venice’ in Danube delta faces relentless Russian drone attacks. Vylkove, a town on the Danube known as "Ukraine's Venice," faces relentless Russian drone attacks targeting ports vital to Ukrainian food exports. With no basements for shelter, residents must rely on border guards and soldiers to shoot drones down using searchlights, thermal cameras, and armed trucks. Soldiers train daily to stay prepared. Attacks intensify at night. "Emotions come later," says a soldier as their focus remains on defending the town. Reuters

War analysts: West needs to break the supply chains keeping Russia's deadliest guns firing. Russia's artillery, responsible for over 70% of Ukraine’s combat casualties, continues to give Moscow a battlefield edge. Despite sanctions, Russia’s defense industry remains strong due to domestic production, stored Soviet-era equipment, and imports. Royal United Services Institute analysts argue that the West must disrupt Russia’s artillery supply chain, targeting vulnerabilities like raw material imports and machining equipment. Russia’s ties with countries like China, Iran, and North Korea could strengthen its position. Without intervention, Russia’s firepower could become increasingly difficult to neutralize. Business Insider

Will French Mirage bombers boost Ukraine's air defenses? France has pledged to provide Ukraine with up to 20 Mirage 2000-5F fighter jets by early 2025 after they undergo upgrades to support air-to-ground missions. Initially expected by the end of 2024, the delivery was delayed, according to French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu. Initially designed for air defense, the jets will be modified to carry advanced weapons such as the SCALP-EG cruise missiles and the French AASM precision weapons. These aircraft will enhance Ukraine's air defense capabilities, particularly in countering Russian cruise missiles and drone attacks, while also supporting ground operations near the frontlines. Deutsche Welle  Militarnyi

Zelensky’s 5 asks on his Europe tour. President Volodymyr Zelensky presented five key requests to allies during his European tour last week. He sought: NATO Membership Path – formal assurances toward Ukraine joining NATO; Air Defense Support – deployment of allied air defense systems in Poland and Romania to intercept Russian missiles over Ukraine and more Patriot and SAMP/T systems for Ukraine’s use; Deep Strikes – authorization to use Western-donated weapons for attacks on Russian territory; Taurus Missiles – a renewed push for Berlin to approve the transfer of long-range Taurus cruise missiles; Boost to Domestic Arms Industry – Investment in Ukraine’s defense sector. PoliticoEU

Scholz unveils $1.5 billion allied aid package during a meeting with Zelensky. During a Friday meeting in Berlin, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged $1.5 billion in military aid to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, including air defense systems, tanks, drones, and artillery. Zelenskyy emphasized the need for continued support into 2025 to implement his “victory plan” and end the war. Scholz affirmed Germany’s commitment, signaling to Russia that delaying tactics would fail. The meeting capped Zelensky’s European tour to rally support. Earlier Friday, Zelensky met Pope Francis to discuss peace efforts. Zelensky also met with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Kyiv Independent Associated Press Reuters PoliticoEU Euronews Al Jazeera

The Netherlands Allocates Additional €6 Billion in Military Aid to Ukraine. The Netherlands will allocate an additional €6 billion in military aid to Ukraine in 2024 from a total of €10.4 billion. Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans confirmed no aid cuts have been made. To date, €3.76 billion in assistance, including F-16s, tanks, and artillery, has been provided. Brekelmans reiterated that supporting Ukraine is crucial for European security. Militarnyi

Putin won't discuss Ukraine peace with Germany's Scholz, Berlin says. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to discuss peace in Ukraine with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Baerbock criticized Putin for rejecting opportunities for peace talks, highlighting that he "refuses to accept peace" and continues to favor war and destruction. Despite Ukraine's readiness for a just peace, Baerbock noted that Putin is no longer even willing to speak to Scholz on the phone. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded Sunday by saying Putin is open to dialogue. Scholz last spoke to Putin on the phone in December 2022, when he called for a diplomatic solution and the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. Reuters Deutsche Presse-Agentur

Putin cements ties with Iranian president in Central Asia meeting. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, on Friday to strengthen bilateral ties. This was their first meeting since Pezeshkian’s election. They emphasized their growing partnership. The leaders discussed cooperation in energy, infrastructure, and military sectors. Pezeshkian praised their deepening ties against Western sanctions. Putin invited Pezeshkian to Russia. The U.S. views the Russia-Iran alliance, in light of Iran allegedly supplying missiles for the Ukraine war, with concern. Reuters Kyiv Independent 

Woodward's revelations deepen the debate on whether Trump will sell out Ukraine.Bob Woodward’s new book reveals that Donald Trump spoke with Vladimir Putin seven times after leaving office, sparking debate about Trump’s potential to serve Russia’s interests if re-elected. Critics argue that Trump’s history of praising Putin and maintaining a friendly relationship with Russia raises concerns about a potential "sellout" of U.S. and Ukrainian interests. However, some point to Trump’s past actions, such as supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons and killing Russian mercenaries in Syria, as evidence that his relationship with Russia was not always cooperative. Kyiv Independent

House speaker has no 'appetite' for more US support for Ukraine. House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed growing fatigue regarding U.S. support for Ukraine, telling Punchbowl News on Friday, “I don’t have an appetite for further Ukraine funding, and I hope it’s not necessary.” Johnson tied this sentiment to the U.S. presidential election, suggesting a Donald Trump victory would end the war, with Trump prepared to call Putin and tell him, “This is enough.” Johnson said a Kamala Harris presidency would prolong the war. Punchbowl News Kyiv Independent 

Orbán threatens to mess with Ukraine aid to help Trump. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is obstructing a $50 billion loan to Ukraine, aligning with Donald Trump’s interests. Orbán's veto aims to prevent U.S. involvement in the loan, allowing Trump to avoid future financial commitments to Ukraine if reelected. The loan is designed to be repaid using frozen Russian assets, with the EU holding most of these funds. Orbán's opposition also blocks extending European Union sanctions to 36 months, risking financial burdens for Europe. While EU leaders may proceed without U.S. participation, Orbán’s maneuver reflects his priority: securing favor with Trump, regardless of the financial impact on Europe or Ukraine. PoliticoEU

Journalist Viktoria Roshchyna, who died in Russian captivity, held in 'one of the most brutal detention centers,' NGO says. Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchyna, who died in Russian captivity, had been detained in brutal conditions in Russian prisons known for torture, including the infamous Taganrog detention center. Roshchyna disappeared in August 2023 while reporting in occupied Ukraine, with Russia confirming her detention in 2024. She was held in isolation and reportedly died on Sept. 19. Ukrainian officials were preparing to include her in a prisoner exchange. Her death has been reclassified as a war crime, sparking calls for an international investigation into the circumstances. Roshchyna had courageously reported on life under Russian occupation. Kyiv Independent New York Times Reuters Ukrainska Pravda

Who was Viktoria Roshchyna? Viktoria Roshchyna, a 27-year-old Ukrainian journalist, was known for her fearless reporting from occupied territories, covering the war, organized crime, and human rights abuses. Working for outlets like Hromadske and Ukrainska Pravda, she believed in witnessing events firsthand. In 2022, she was briefly detained by Russian forces. She went missing in August 2023, and her death in Russian captivity was confirmed in October 2024, shortly before a planned prisoner exchange. Roshchyna was honored with the Courage in Journalism Award for her dedication to truthful storytelling. Kyiv Independent

Silence from Zelensky’s Office as CPJ urges halt to Kyiv’s ‘systematic pressure’ against Ukrainska Pravda. The Ukrainian Presidential Office has remained silent after the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) urged Kyiv to stop "systematic pressure" against Ukrainska Pravda, a leading independent newspaper. CPJ’s statement, issued on Friday, followed allegations from Ukrainska Pravda that the government is trying to influence its editorial policy. CPJ criticized the pressure as anti-democratic, especially during wartime. Press freedom in Ukraine has been under increased scrutiny, with concerns about growing state influence despite progress made since the 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine claims Russia killed nine drone operators after they had surrendered. Ukraine has accused Russian forces of executing nine Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russia’s Kursk region on Oct. 10, following their surrender. Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets, has urged the United Nations and the International Red Cross to investigate, calling it "another crime committed by the Russians." A similar case was reported earlier this month, where 16 Ukrainian POWs were killed in occupied Donetsk. Sky News  Associated Press

Zelensky seeks pope's help to free Ukraine POWs held in Russia. During a 35-minute meeting at the Vatican on Friday, President Volodymyr Zelensky asked Pope Francis for help in securing the release of Ukrainian prisoners of war held by Russia. Zelensky also invited the Vatican to participate in an upcoming POW conference in Canada. Their second meeting in four months focused on the war and peace efforts, with Zelensky gifting the pope a painting symbolizing the devastation in Bucha. Reuters

EU to impose sanctions over Iranian ballistic missile transfer to Russia. The European Union plans to impose sanctions on 14 individuals and organizations linked to Iran’s transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia. On Wednesday, EU foreign ministers will approve the measures, targeting entities including airlines. This follows U.S. intelligence reports that Russia received ballistic missiles from Iran for use in Ukraine. Iran has denied transferring ballistic missiles, but EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell proposed sanctions based on "credible information." Reuters

Ukraine, Russia Face Major Dilemma Over Dwindling Manpower. Ukraine and Russia face manpower challenges as their war drags on. Moscow has suffered over 665,000 dead or wounded, with September marking Russia's highest monthly casualties. Russia relies on conscripts, volunteers, and foreign fighters. Although Russia tries to incentivize voluntary recruitment, it may soon have to consider politically risky measures like mobilization. With a smaller population, Ukraine has difficulties replenishing forces, but it maintains a morale edge by defending its homeland. Newsweek

Escape from the meat grinder: The making of a Russian deserter. Facing brutal conditions and disillusionment, many Russian soldiers, like Stepan, are deserting to escape Russia’s war on Ukraine. Mobilized against his will, Stepan witnessed atrocities, lost faith in commanders, and injured himself to avoid combat. When denied discharge, he fled with help from Idite Lesom, a group assisting thousands of Russians in dodging military service or deserting. As cases rise, soldiers increasingly reject the regime’s glorification of sacrifice, driven by fear of death rather than ideology. Many have escaped to Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, seeking refuge from a war they neither support nor understand. Stepan’s story reflects resistance within Russia’s ranks as more men defy a system that views them as expendable. The Economist

I set fire to my trenches to stop Putin from winning this war. Atesh, an underground resistance movement comprising Ukrainians, Russians, and Crimean Tatars, is sabotaging Russian military efforts from within. Russian soldiers disillusioned with the war, including frontline troops and airbase personnel, have become critical assets, setting fire to trenches, sabotaging equipment, and leaking intelligence to Ukrainian forces. These actions disrupt supply lines, expose military positions, and weaken Russian defenses. Atesh operates covertly across occupied territories, Russia, and Crimea. Its efforts aim to destabilize Russian military operations, exemplified by aiding in Ukraine’s strike on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters. The group’s goal is to free Crimea from Russian control. The Telegraph

Ukrainian recruiters descend on Kyiv’s nightlife in search of men not registered for conscription. Ukrainian recruiters are targeting Kyiv’s nightlife venues, including restaurants, bars, and concert halls, in search of men who have not registered for conscription, signaling intensified efforts to replenish Ukraine’s military amid ongoing attrition from Russia’s invasion. Raids were conducted at popular locations such as the Palace of Sports after a Friday concert by Okean Elzy and other venues like Goodwine and Avalon, with men being detained. This escalation reflects the pressure on Ukraine to meet recruitment quotas as laws tighten, limiting exemptions and lowering the draft age to 25 from 27. The law requires men eligible for military service to maintain updated documents, with penalties for non-compliance. Associated Press  Kyiv Independent The Telegraph

Meet Ukraine’s top fighting unit — at least that’s what their ad says. The 3rd Assault Brigade of Ukraine launched an eye-catching recruitment campaign featuring pinup-style imagery to attract new volunteers as recruitment wanes. Their ads, blending humor and military themes, include models posing with soldiers and unconventional slogans. Led by Khrystyna Bondarenko, the creative team emphasizes openness and camaraderie over traditional war messaging. Known for intense combat in Bakhmut, the brigade distinguishes itself through innovative marketing and direct recruitment. Their efforts compete with other Ukrainian brigades, reflecting a shift toward personalized outreach. Though the ads spark mixed reactions, the campaign aims to rally citizens and maintain morale as the war drags on. Washington Post

Russia Says Struck Ukraine’s Patriot Air Defense System Launchers. Russia claimed last week its missiles struck two U.S.-made Patriot air defense system launchers in Ukraine, damaging one and destroying another. Ukraine said the Patriots were hit but that the damage was minor and the system remains operational. The Patriot systems, crucial for Kyiv’s air defense against Russian missile strikes, include launchers, control stations, and radar sets. The Defense Post

Jet Fire at Crimea Oil Terminal Extinguished 5 Days After Ukraine Strike. A jet fire at the Feodosia oil terminal in Russian-annexed Crimea, caused by a Ukrainian missile strike, was extinguished Friday, five days after it started. Ukraine claimed responsibility for the strike on the largest oil terminal in Crimea, leading to the evacuation of over 1,100 people as the fire spread across 2,500 square meters. Moscow Times

NATO Ally Refutes Elon Musk's Starlink in Ukraine Claims. Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski refuted Elon Musk’s claims about funding Starlink in Ukraine, saying last week that Poland has been funding the units. Sikorski said Poland's funding of Starlink is crucial to Ukraine's ability to maintain secure internet access. Musk claimed that SpaceX, his company, bore the financial burden. Sikorski’s comments came amid Poland’s record defense spending of $48.5 billion, or 4% of its GDP – and extensive military support for Ukraine. Newsweek

US actor Steven Seagal says he would 'die for Putin' in documentary. In a new documentary, U.S. actor and Russian propagandist Steven Seagal expressed his readiness to fight for Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating he would "die if need be." Seagal, who became a Russian citizen in 2016, is shown visiting occupied Ukrainian territories and sharing pro-Kremlin propaganda. Despite his support for Putin, there is no indication that the 72-year-old actor plans to participate in military activities. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Oct. 11-13. Russian forces resumed localized assaults along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia oblast border, making minor gains near Levadne and Novodarivka. Russian milbloggers celebrated the execution of nine Ukrainian POWs in Kursk Oblast, promoting war crimes as part of an ultranationalist culture aligned with the Kremlin.

Russian forces intensified efforts to dislodge Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast, eliminating most Ukrainian positions in Glushkovsky Raion. The Russian military is accelerating counter attacks before poor weather limits maneuverability. Russia aims to free up combat forces by pushing Ukrainian troops out of Kursk to focus on its priority offensives in Donetsk Oblast. South Korean and Ukrainian officials report that North Korean military personnel are fighting in Ukraine and training in Russia. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov declared a "blood feud" against Russian legislators. New appointments were announced in Ukraine's Ministry of Defense. The Kremlin is deceptively recruiting young African women to assemble Iranian-designed Shahed drones in the Republic of Tatarstan.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces retook positions near Selydove. Russian troops advanced near Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kurakhove, Kupyansk, Donetsk City, Velyka Novosilka, and Robotyne. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War Saturday-Institute for the Study of War Friday-Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: The US should get out of the way and let Ukraine hit back. Peter Juul argues that the U.S. should lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American-supplied weapons to strike Russian territory. Despite concerns about escalation, past actions show that Vladimir Putin’s main redline is NATO’s direct intervention, not the use of long-range weapons. By allowing Ukraine to utilize these arms fully, the U.S. can help erode Russia's military capacity and ease pressure on Ukrainian forces. Juul contends that the U.S. must not let Putin’s nuclear threats prevent it from ensuring Ukraine’s success against Russia’s aggression. The Hill

Opinion: Putin doesn’t have enough troops to defeat Ukraine and defend Russia. Peter Dickinson argues that Russia’s military is overstretched, lacking enough troops to defeat Ukraine and defend Russian territory. Despite Russia's counterattacks, Ukraine still holds territory in Kursk Oblast, exposing the limitations of Vladimir Putin’s army. Moscow faces mounting manpower issues, with reports of aging recruits, sailors redeployed as infantry, and prisoners enlisted to fight. Putin’s subdued reaction to the invasion underscores his awareness of these shortcomings. The Kursk offensive has challenged the narrative of inevitable Russian victory and revealed vulnerabilities in Russia’s overextended military. Atlantic Council

Opinion: The West, including Israel, should help Ukraine fight Russia in Syria. Treston Wheat and David Kirichenko argue that Ukraine's strikes on Russian military assets in Syria since mid-2024 provide an opportunity for the West and Israel to weaken Russia’s influence in the region. Increased Western support would strain Russia’s resources, disrupt its alliance with Iran, and force Moscow to divert attention from Ukraine. Ukraine’s actions also undermine Russian morale and demonstrate its ability to project power beyond its borders. Expanding these operations, especially targeting Russian air bases and recruitment centers, would further degrade Russia's strategic position in the Middle East. The Hill

Opinion: Ukraine Will Not Accept the Peace of the Graveyard.Volodymyr Dubovyk argues that peace in Ukraine is only possible if Russia ceases its aggression. Ukraine demands the withdrawal of Russian forces and rejects any settlement that concedes occupied territory. Dubovyk warns against plans resembling the China-Brazil peace proposal, which could freeze the conflict and embolden Russia. He emphasizes Ukraine's need for solid security guarantees and continued Western support, asserting peace cannot come at the cost of Ukrainian sovereignty and survival. Center for European Policy Analysis

AMERICAS

Biden to visit Germany for Ukraine, Middle East talks.Sources say that U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to visit Germany this week after postponing a previous trip due to Hurricane Milton. Senior German officials confirmed that he would likely travel to Berlin for meetings with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, where the leaders will hold talks on Ukraine and the Middle East. The original trip would have included a summit of the Ramstein group—nations supplying weapons to Ukraine. The rescheduled visit, now shorter, is unlikely to include this summit. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had planned to present a "victory plan" at the summit, but after its cancellation, he began touring European capitals to maintain support for Kyiv. Biden’s trip will be his first official bilateral visit to Germany as president. The original itinerary included a stop in Angola, but time constraints may affect rescheduling as the U.S. approaches its next presidential election. The Guardian Bloomberg Euronews  

Pentagon baffled by series of mystery drone sightings over U.S. military base for 17 days. U.S. military officials are still confounded by a series of mysterious drone sightings over Virginia’s Langley Air Force Base in December of last year, repeated incidents that the Pentagon is trying to unravel. Over the span of 17 days, military personnel observed the small, unidentified aircraft breaching restricted airspace, an unprecedented phenomenon. These drones, which appeared nightly and flew in from the north, were suspected of being hostile, possibly deployed by foreign powers like Russia or China to test U.S. defenses. Despite the efforts of military and law enforcement agencies, the drones remained elusive, fueling concerns about national security. Drone incursions also occurred at other sensitive locations, including a nuclear weapons test site in Nevada. This highlights the challenge of defending against drones on American soil without disrupting civilian life; federal law prohibits the military from shooting them down unless there’s an imminent threat. Efforts to investigate the drone activity included White House meetings, military reconnaissance, local police hunts on foot and by car, and even suggestions to use advanced technology like directed energy to disable the drones. Although a Chinese national, Fengyun Shi, was later arrested for photographing Navy vessels near Langley, no clear link was ever found to the broader drone incursions. By the end of December 2023, the drones had disappeared, and the case remains unresolved. National security experts continue to stress the growing threat of drone incursions, which are now being reported at other U.S. military installations. Wall Street Journal

Boeing cutting 17,000 jobs, delaying first 777X jet as financial challenges intensify.Boeing has made the decision to cut 17,000 jobs, about 10% of its global workforce, due to financial difficulties compounded by a strike involving 33,000 West Coast workers. This reduction includes employees at all levels and is a part of measures to align with the company's current financial situation. The ongoing strike has halted production of key jets like the 737 MAX, 767, and 777, contributing to the company’s $5 billion in third-quarter losses. CEO Kelly Ortberg announced the layoffs as part of broader efforts to manage Boeing's challenges, which also include delaying the first delivery of the 777X jet until 2026 due to development issues and strike-related delays. The strike is costing the company $1 billion per month, and Boeing is in negotiations with the machinists' union to end the labor dispute. Reuters New York Times The Guardian  

New York court hands down 14-year prison sentence to U.S. soldier who attempted to aid ISIS. U.S. Army Pvt. Cole Bridges, a 24-year-old former cavalry scout at Fort Stewart, was sentenced to 14 years in prison on Friday for attempting to provide material support to the Islamic State (ISIS) and trying to facilitate the murder of U.S. service members. Between 2020 and early 2021, Bridges communicated online with an undercover FBI agent posing as an ISIS supporter; the ex-soldier offered tactical advice, military manuals, and potential targets, including suggestions for attacks in New York City. He also provided guidance on defending ISIS positions from American forces and expressed support for the group's ideology, despite disagreeing with some of its methods, such as suicide bombing tactics. Bridges was arrested in January 2021 after recording videos in support of ISIS and sending tactical diagrams to the undercover agent. Although he requested the maximum 40-year sentence during sentencing, the judge gave him 14 years due to his lack of direct contact with actual ISIS members and his expressed remorse. He will also serve 10 years of supervised release. Washington Post New York Times Reuters The Guardian Associated Press  

EUROPE

Vladimir Putin’s spies are plotting global chaos. Russia is engaging in aggressive subversion, with its intelligence agencies, particularly the military’s GRU, leading sabotage, arson, and assassination plots across Europe. Ken McCallum, the head of MI5, Britain’s domestic security and counter-intelligence agency, warned of growing recklessness. Arrests reveal GRU involvement in plots targeting U.S. military sites in Germany and Polish airports. Russian mercenaries, aligned with the GRU, have attacked Ukrainian-linked businesses and plotted the assassination of prominent figures like the head of Rheinmetall. Russia’s actions extend beyond Europe, stirring unrest in Africa and manipulating U.S. politics through election interference. Hackers have targeted critical infrastructure in Poland and the U.S., while Russian disinformation campaigns exploit AI tools like ChatGPT. Russia’s activities, aimed at destabilizing NATO and the West, reflect a nihilistic approach focused on rewriting the global order. The Economist

Russia’s Oil Keeps Flowing Despite Sanctions. That’s Exactly How the U.S. Wants It.

Despite sanctions, Russia pumps nearly as much oil as before invading Ukraine, with production at 9.8 million barrels per day—down 8%, mainly due to OPEC+ cuts. Western governments avoided disrupting oil flows to prevent energy shocks amid high inflation. Russia sidestepped price caps by using a “shadow fleet” of tankers insured outside Western systems, selling to buyers like China and India. Moscow’s biggest economic hit came from cutting gas exports to Europe, costing $20 billion annually. While Russia’s energy dominance is weakening long-term, its trade surplus cushions losses. Experts predict gradual tightening of sanctions but not enough to trigger oil price hikes. Barron’s

Belarus’s Lukashenko supports Russian nuclear policy shift, says changes will “cool the ardor" of the West.Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, a friend and supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressed support for Moscow’s recent updates to its nuclear weapons policy, saying the changes were overdue and would likely temper the aggressive stance of Western nations. Putin announced in September that Russia was expanding the list of scenarios that could lead to a nuclear strike, including preemptive action if there was reliable information about a massive cross-border attack involving aircraft, drones, or missiles. The changes were seen as a response to discussions in the U.S. and Britain about allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia. Lukashenko believes these updates serve as a strong warning to the West and prevent further escalation. Ukraine, however, has accused Moscow of nuclear blackmail, with President Volodymyr Zelensky urging the West to ignore Putin's "red lines." The Kremlin has warned that if Kyiv is allowed to use Western-supplied missiles against Russia, it would lead to direct conflict with the U.S. and its allies. Reuters

Polish PM intends to suspend right to asylum, as nation faces migration challenges on Belarus border. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Saturday announced plans to temporarily suspend the right to asylum as part of a new migration policy, citing apparent abuses by Belarus and Russia. Tusk underscored the need for Poland to regain full control over its borders and reduce illegal migration, accusing Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin of exploiting asylum laws to destabilize Poland and the West. The suspension will be discussed at an upcoming Cabinet meeting, and Tusk plans to seek European Union recognition of the decision. This announcement follows tightened visa regulations after the blowback from a cash-for-visas scandal. Associated Press Politico BBC Deutsche Welle 

After raising terror threat level, Norway institutes temporary border checks.Norway has introduced temporary border checks with other Western European countries following an increase in its terror threat level, which was raised from "moderate" to "high" by the domestic security agency, PST. The checks will last until October 22 and come in response to a "challenging threat picture," with heightened concern for Jewish and Israeli targets. While Norway is not an EU member, it is part of the Schengen area and allows passport-free travel. The new controls will not apply to all travelers, and no significant delays are expected at border crossings. Associated Press 

Afghan national detained, investigated by French anti-terror officials over alleged attack plot. French anti-terror authorities are investigating a 22-year-old Afghan national on terrorism charges over a suspected attack plot. The individual was one of three people detained earlier in the Toulouse region, though the other two have since been released. He has been connected to a 27-year-old Afghan citizen who was arrested in the U.S. last week and charged with plotting  violent action against a football stadium or shopping center. Investigators also found evidence linking the suspect in France to radicalization, and support for the Islamic State ideology. It is possible that the two men are brothers, but this information has not been verified. France 24  Associated Press NBC 

MIDDLE EAST

U.S. military targets insurgent IS camps in Syria. The U.S. military conducted airstrikes on several Islamic State (IS) camps in Syria on Friday, aiming to disrupt the group's ability to carry out attacks both regionally and globally. While the exact locations of the strikes were not specified, about 900 U.S. troops are currently stationed in eastern Syria, working with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, who played a key role in defeating IS. Despite IS losing control of its territory in Iraq by 2017 and in Syria by 2019, the group’s sleeper cells have continued to carry out attacks. The U.S. military stated that these strikes are intended to hinder IS operations and confirmed that no civilians were harmed. Last month, Iraqi and American forces killed a senior IS commander wanted by Washington, along with several other militants. Associated Press France 24 

Iran reduces sentences of journalists after absolving them of working with U.S.An Iranian court has acquitted two journalists, Niloofar Hamedi and Elaheh Mohammadi, of collaborating with the U.S., while reducing their prison sentences for reporting on the death of Mahsa Amini, a Kurdish-Iranian woman who died in custody after being arrested by the morality police for allegedly violating dress code laws. Initially sentenced to 13 and 12 years, the journalists’ terms were cut to five years each. Amini's death triggered widespread protests in 2022 and 2023, marking Iran's most significant unrest since the 1979 revolution. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

China launches massive drills near Taiwan, releases military video saying it is 'prepared for battle.’ The Chinese military on Monday initiated new, massive war games near Taiwan as a warning against the self-governing island’s "separatist" actions. The drills, called "Joint Sword-2024B," are taking place around Taiwan in various areas including the east, west, and north coasts. The exercises are centered around sea-air combat readiness patrols, blocking critical ports, and targeting maritime and ground areas. These exercises come days after Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te delivered a national day speech, which China condemned for rejecting Beijing's right to represent Taipei. The Asian superpower also released a military video declaring it was "prepared for battle." Taiwan's defense ministry is closely monitoring the situation, and the U.S. government has denounced the drills, calling them unjustified and urging restraint to maintain regional peace. China has not announced any live-fire exercises, but its propaganda and military actions, including simulated missile launches and fighter jet operations, are seen as provocations by Taipei and its allies. While Taiwan’s government and military remain on alert, public and market reactions have been calm. China’s state media continues to condemn the sovereign state’s leadership, warning that "Taiwan independence" will be met with further military action. Reuters Reuters BBC The Guardian CNN 

U.S. defense contractor overcharges Taiwan in military deals, sparking controversy and calls for transparency. Dissension has erupted in Taiwan following the discovery of repeated, severe price gouging by the U.S. defense contractor, RTX, formerly Raytheon Technologies. RTX overcharged Taiwan by hundreds of millions of dollars in military procurement deals, prompting concerns on the island that Taipei was treated unfairly. The overpricing, revealed through a U.S. federal audit, involved contracts for the Leshan radar system and Patriot missiles. While Taiwan’s defense ministry acknowledged the issue and confirmed that the funds would be returned, it denied accusations that it was concealing the situation at Washington’s request. Critics, including political commentators, argued that Taipei should have condemned RTX instead of deflecting the issue as part of "cognitive warfare" linked to pro-Beijing narratives. Taiwanese lawmakers, both from the opposition and the ruling party, expressed frustration over the lack of transparency in military procurements and demanded more accountability in future arms deals. Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo defended the government, explaining that the U.S. initiated the investigation and assured that the island would seek full reimbursement if fraud was proven. However, observers suggested that Taiwan’s reliance on American defense support has made it hesitant to speak out against arms sales issues. South China Morning Post

Vietnamese, Chinese leaders discuss South China Sea two weeks after clashes in disputed waters. Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Vietnamese President To Lam on Saturday agreed to preserve peace in the South China Sea during Li's visit to Hanoi, following recent skirmishes between Vietnamese fishermen and the Chinese coastguard in contested waters. The two leaders underscored the importance of stability and cooperation, calling for adherence to international law, especially the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Li’s visit, the first by a Chinese premier to Vietnam in 11 years, comes amid rising tensions in the region and growing strategic competition between China and the U.S. While the Chinese statement didn't mention the South China Sea, Hanoi reaffirmed its commitment to peaceful resolution and cooperation with Beijing. During the visit, both countries signed agreements on various areas including agriculture and infrastructure. China has been attempting to strengthen ties with Vietnam, while Hanoi simultaneously engages with Washington on the South China Sea issue. South China Morning Post

Analysts question if Japanese leader’s proposal for NATO-like nuclear sharing with U.S. will deter or goad China.Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has called for a NATO-like nuclear-sharing arrangement with the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region, sparking concerns about rising tensions with China. Ishiba suggested that such an alliance could deter threats from China, Russia, and North Korea. However, Tokyo’s longstanding anti-nuclear policies and strong public opposition complicate the proposal. Analysts warn that nuclear sharing could provoke Beijing to enhance its military strategies and nuclear build-up. China has already been increasing its nuclear capabilities, conducting missile tests and expanding its arsenal. While experts believe nuclear-sharing with Japan is unlikely in the near future, discussions on enhanced military cooperation between the U.S. and its Asia-Pacific allies, such as Tokyo and South Korea, are ongoing. These moves reflect concerns over Washington’s willingness to defend its allies against potential conflicts with Beijing or Pyongyang and could lead to further regional arms escalation. South China Morning Post

WWII photo exhibition showcases Washington’s forgotten friendship with Beijing.A WWII photo exhibition is nudging the bygone memories of an old friendship between China and the U.S., amid rising tensions between the two modern superpowers. During World War II, over 250,000 Americans fought alongside Chinese soldiers in the "China-Burma-India" theater against Japanese forces, a significant yet largely forgotten episode in Sino-U.S. history. Chinese blogger Zou Dehuai is reviving these wartime stories through an exhibition at the Beijing American Centre, showcasing a collection curated from an archive of over 10,000 historical photographs. This highlights personal stories of unsung heroes, including U.S. and Chinese soldiers, as well as Chinese Americans and African-American participants. This shared history, though, is complicated by post-war ideological differences between China and the U.S., including the U.S.'s support of Chiang Kai-shek's Kuomintang (KMT) and the later Korean and Vietnam conflicts. Later, many Chinese soldiers who had fought with the Americans were persecuted during China's Cultural Revolution. Despite these historical tensions, the legacy of wartime cooperation, such as the famed Flying Tigers, is now often cited as a symbol of potential reconciliation between the two nations. Zou hopes to pass down these stories of friendship and shared sacrifice between the two peoples to future generations, and underscore the possibility of reconciliation between the rivals. South China Morning Post

North Korea readying to blast cross-border routes with South amid drone dispute. Seoul on Monday reported that North Korea is preparing to destroy roads that cross its heavily militarized border with South Korea, as tensions between the two countries escalate. This comes after North Korea accused the South of sending drones over its capital. North Korean troops were seen working under camouflage near border roads, likely preparing to blow them up, possibly as soon as Monday, according to South Korea’s military. Last week, Pyongyang threatened to sever roads and rail links with Seoul and fortify border areas. It also accused South Korea of scattering anti-North leaflets using drones, calling it a provocation that could lead to armed conflict. North Korea has warned of a "horrible disaster" if more drones are detected, and it has placed artillery units on standby at the border. South Korea has refused to confirm or deny the drone allegations, viewing them as a tactic to provoke conflict. Pyongyang has reintroduced heavy weapons and guard posts along the Demilitarized Zone, effectively undoing parts of a 2018 military agreement that had aimed to reduce tensions. Deutsche Welle Reuters Reuters Associated Press Associated Press  

AFRICA

Tensions flare in the Horn of Africa as Ethiopia makes shock agreement with Somalia’s breakaway region. A surprise deal announced this year between Ethiopia and Somaliland, a self-declared state within Somalia, has set an already bristling region on edge. The agreement grants Ethiopia access to naval and commercial port facilities on the Red Sea in exchange for Addis Ababa recognizing Somaliland's independence; this has provoked opposition from Mogadishu, which refuses to acknowledge Somaliland's independence and threatens to expel Ethiopian troops assisting in the fight against al-Shabaab. Egypt has sided with Somalia, providing arms and potentially replacing Ethiopian troops in Somalia's African Union (AU) force. The U.S., with 450 defense personnel stationed in Somalia, has been dragged into the fray, and is concerned that this dispute could distract Somalia from its anti-insurgency war against al-Shabab. Addis Ababa’s recognition of Somaliland, spurred by its need for access to the sea, could destabilize the region further. Washington is actively working to keep Somalia united and is urging Ethiopia not to recognize the breakaway region. While Turkey is mediating between the two nations, other regional players like Djibouti and Kenya are offering alternative solutions for Ethiopia's sea access. The conflict over the deal has stalled the replacement of the African Union's military force in Somalia, raising concerns about security and humanitarian crises in the region. Wall Street Journal

Somalia, embroiled in regional tensions, hails Egypt’s offer to send peacekeepers. Somalia has welcomed Egypt's offer to deploy peacekeeping troops as part of a new security partnership, as the current African Union (AU) peacekeeping mission in Somalia is set to end in December. This offer was discussed during a summit in Asmara, Eritrea, where the leaders of Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea pledged cooperation on regional security. The Egyptian troops would be deployed under the newly created African Union Mission to Support Stabilization in Somalia (AUSSOM). The summit also addressed regional tensions, including Ethiopia's dispute with Cairo over the Blue Nile dam, and Addis Ababa’s efforts to establish a naval base in the breakaway territory Somaliland. Associated Press 

Mozambique accepts probe into military unit’s civilian massacre at TotalEnergies gas plant. The Defense Ministry of Mozambique has voiced its “total openness and willingness” to allow a transparent investigation into accusations of brutal military violence at a natural gas facility operated by TotalEnergies. A Politico report claims that in 2021, a Mozambican military unit stationed at the facility in Cabo Delgado tortured, raped, and killed civilians after accusing them of being linked to an Islamist insurgency. The civilians were allegedly confined in shipping containers, beaten, and starved. Only a few survived. The Defense Ministry denied the allegations, asserting there was no evidence to support them, and stressed that their forces were focused on combating terrorism and protecting the population. TotalEnergies, which hired the security unit, also denied knowledge of the reported incidents. It was also revealed recently that Britain’s then-trade secretary Liz Truss in 2020 lobbied for $1.15 billion in funding for the controversial TotalEnergies gas project in Mozambique, against the advice of Cabinet colleagues. Politico Politico

Moroccan king applauds allies in Western Sahara quarrel following European court ruling. Morocco's King Mohammed VI on Friday asserted that resolving the dispute over the sovereignty of the Western Sahara is central to the nation’s foreign policy. He praised recent diplomatic successes, particularly the support of the U.S., Spain, and France for Morocco's 2007 autonomy plan for the fiercely contested territory. This plan would grant Morocco sovereignty over Western Sahara, which it considers its “southern provinces.” The country faces opposition, however, from the pro-independence Polisario Front, backed by Algeria for years. The Western Sahara, a former colony, has been contested since the 1970s, with most of the territory under Morocco's control and the Polisario operating from refugee camps in Algeria. Morocco has pushed its allies, including countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, to support its autonomy plan. Washington backed the North African nation as part of a 2020 agreement in which Rabat normalized ties with Israel. France’s recent shift in support for Morocco’s plan fueled tensions with Algeria, which withdrew its ambassador from France. While Morocco has sought diplomatic recognition, the Polisario has sought legal challenges, with a recent European Court of Justice ruling invalidating expired EU trade agreements involving Western Sahara. Associated Press 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

White House forms team to investigate Chinese breach of U.S. telecom firms.  The Biden administration has formed a multi-agency team to address what appears to be a cyberespionage campaign conducted by Chinese “Salt Typhoon” threat actors against U.S. telecommunications companies.  About 12 companies have been affected by the compromise operations, including AT&T, Verizon, and Lumen. It is unclear how the cyberattacks against company networks were carried out.  The White House formed the “unified coordination group” following a meeting of deputy secretaries of key agencies that included the FBI, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), and the Cybersecurity and Information Security Agency (CISA).  It is unclear how the cyberattacks against company networks were carried out and investigators are examining the scope and nature of the compromise and what data the hackers may have accessed or exfiltrated.  Officials say there are indications the breaches were directed by or linked to the Chinese government.  Washington Post

House committees demand details from telecom firms on network breaches.  Two House committees have requested briefings from leaders of three telecommunications companies whose networks reportedly have been breached by Chinese hackers.  The House Energy and Commerce Committee and the House Select Committee on China separately contacted AT&T, Verizon, and Lumen to gain details on the intrusions that may have led to compromises of U.S. law enforcement wiretap systems.  The committees have asked the companies to explain how the breaches occurred and the steps they are taking to prevent future breaches.  The legislators also have requested separate briefings on the incidents from company executives.  In a related action, Sen. Ron Wyden, a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, has asked the Justice Department and the Federal Communications Commission, to accelerate a rulemaking process for federal baseline cybersecurity standards, including fines for telecoms that fail to comply.  Wyden expressed his concerns in a statement to CyberScoop: “A compromise of networks associated with government surveillance would constitute both a serious threat to national security and a violation of the implicit social contract that comes with that surveillance.”  TheRecord   CyberScoop

TechCrunch profiles Chinese ‘Typhoon’ family of hacking operations. A trio of suspected Chinese hacking operations against U.S. targets – Volt, Flax, and Salt Typhoon – represents a substantial cybersecurity threat due to their potential to disrupt victimized systems, penetrate sensitive networks, and extract data of intelligence value.  The campaigns have been directed against U.S. critical infrastructure, including water, energy, and transportation sectors.  Motivations for the cyberattacks include creating a persistent covert presence in U.S. systems for activation in the event of a U.S.-China conflict.  The most recent of the campaigns, Salt Typhoon, appears focused on gathering intelligence on Americans as well as potential targets of U.S. surveillance by compromising the wiretap systems of U.S. phone and internet providers.  An earlier operation, Volt Typhoon, was first identified by Microsoft in May 2023.  The company uncovered evidence of Chinese malware compromises of network equipment, including routers, firewalls, and VPNs, intended to establish a digital presence that could be activated for later destructive cyberattacks.  In September, federal officials disrupted a botnet operation, Flax Typhoon, which masked its activities through a private company in Beijing.   The Flax campaign included the use of a custom variant of Mirai malware directed against hundreds of thousands of internet-connected devices.  TechCrunch

CISA approves advisory reports recommending key cybersecurity measures. CISA has approved four reports drafted by an advisory committee and subcommittees on the agency’s efforts to bolster cyber resilience, increase public awareness of what CISA does, and develop defenses for the global digital ecosystem.  Encouraging widespread adoption of CISA’s secure-by-design initiative is a key element of one subcommittee report.  In addition, the report focused on building resilience included contingency planning recommendations for the Joint Cyber Defense Collaborative in the event of a successful cyberattack on critical infrastructure.  A technical subcommittee noted in its report on open-source software that the increasingly complex supply chain is viewed by hackers as an easy target-high reward environment.   Among the subcommittees recommendations was the use of an "accountable intermediary" to mitigate "as is" risk presented by open-source programs by transferring accountability from the consumer and producer to better resourced entities.  CISA Director Jen Easterly applauded the advisory committee’s work, which she said took place in a challenging atmosphere of “continued attacks on our most sensitive critical infrastructure by Chinese state-sponsored cyber actors” and at the conclusion of the presidential election campaign “with a threat environment that is more complex than it has ever been.”  CyberScoop

SpaceX registers first with successful booster rocket recovery at launch site – An enormous SpaceX booster rocket was successfully recovered at its launchpad on Sunday it what is described as an engineering milestone for the Starship program.  SpaceX says the ability to recover first-stage booster rockets is an essential ingredient in containing the cause of rocket launches.  After propelling the Starship capsule into space, the Super Heavy booster was guided back to its launch site, where it reignited its engines to slow its descent. Two launch tower mechanical arms “caught” the booster to complete the operation.  SpaceX’s ultimate plan is to fully recover the Starship spacecraft itself, which carries satellites and eventually passengers, and the Super Heavy booster.  NASA Administrator Bill Nelson congratulated SpaceX on the feat, noting that “continued testing will prepare us for the bold missions that lie ahead — including to the South Pole region of the Moon and then on to Mars.”  Wall Street Journal   Bloomberg   Reuters

Apple’s opens new R&D facility in China, largest outside the U.S.  China’s Shenzhen Park is the site of a new Apple venture, its largest research facility outside the U.S.   The applied research laboratory in the southern Chinese tech hub reportedly will strengthen Apple’s commitment to China, the world’s largest smartphone market.  In its initial phase the facility will cover over 215,000 square feet and will operate as Apple’s R&D center in the “Greater Bay” area, which includes Hong Kong, Macau, and a number of Guangdong Province cities.  Over 1,000 research staff eventually will work at the complex, the company’s “most extensive” outside the U.S.  Apple is facing increasing competition from the Chinese smartphone maker, Huawei, which recently reached the milestone of selling more devices than Apple on the mainland.  Apple’s market share has shrunk to less than 14 percent, and the company has dropped out of ranks of the top five smartphone vendors.  Apple’s Shenzhen Park facility reportedly is a component of the company’s plan to diversify its manufacturing supply chain.  China, along with Hong Kong and Taiwan, represents Apple's largest geographical market following the Americas and Europe.  South China Morning Post

Experts warn of computing glut as Chinese localities rush to build data centers. New data from a China-backed technology think tank indicates that more than 250 data centers have been built or are under construction, a trend some experts say points to an oversupply of computing power.  Many of the new data facilities are in remote areas, far from China’s technology centers.  Shan Zhiguang, a director at the State Information Center, warns that areas rushing to build data centers may be basing their decisions on “suppliers’ sales agenda” rather than market demand.  Helen Fang, director of industrial research at HSBC Bank, noted that as a result of the buildout of new data infrastructure in recent years, some government-built facilities “now sit idle.”  She added, “these centers tend to not be located in or around first-tier cities or are too small in size to meet mainstream demand.”  Fang’s assessment was echoed by Shan, who last April observed that “the demand for computing power in China is still limited due to the lack of big models-based killer applications.  If built too early and too much, it may create a glut.”  South China Morning Post

Iran-linked hacking group exploits Exchange, Windows flaws in Gulf states.  The Iran-sponsored hacking group, APT34, has launched new cyber campaigns against government and critical infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Gulf states.  According to Trend Micro researchers, APT34 targeted Microsoft Exchange servers with a new backdoor malware to steal credentials and elevate privileges on compromised Windows devices.  The attacks on vulnerable web servers begin with an uploaded web shell that allows attackers to execute remote code.  APT34 can then deploy additional tools, including a component designed to exploit a high-severity Windows vulnerability.  The hacking group, which has possible links to another Iran-linked ransomware threat actor, FOX Kitten, is active throughout the Middle East.  BleepingComputer

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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