Report for Monday, November 4 ,2024

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Monday, November 4, 2024

Israeli airstrikes pummel Gaza, Kamal Adwan Hospital under tank fire

Trump or Harris? For Ukraine, Two Very Different Futures Loom

U.S. to deploy old Patriots on navy vessels amid rivalry with China’s missile advancements

Tehran has detained an Iranian-American journalist, says U.S. 

Yemen's Houthis says they will maintain blockade on Israeli vessels 

Taiwan detects surge in Chinese military activity, as U.S. presidential election approaches

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

In Next President’s Inbox: 10 Global Nightmares  The Cipher Brief

On Eve of U.S. Election, ‘High Alert’ and Cautious Optimism on Foreign Interference  The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israeli airstrikes pummel Gaza, Kamal Adwan Hospital under tank fire.  Israeli airstrikes killed at least 31 people in Gaza on Sunday, Palestinian medics said.  Israeli officials said the intense fire was aimed at degrading Hamas militants who have been regrouping in north Gaza.  Palestinians said Israel’s air and ground offensives and forced evacuations were "ethnic cleansing" aimed at depopulating border areas to create buffer zones. Palestinian health officials said the Kamal Adwan Hospital near Beit Lahiya came under Israeli tank fire after a delegation from the World Health Organization visited the facility and evacuated some patients. Hospital director Hussam Abu Safiya said Israeli tank fire hit the water supplies and the neonatal intensive care unit. COGAT, the Israeli army's Palestinian civilian affairs agency, said the hospital was hit by a bomb discharged by Palestinian militants, not the Israeli military.  Meanwhile, the World Health Organization launched a second round of vaccinations in northern Gaza Saturday, and the WHO head said Israel and Hamas had agreed to a humanitarian pause, but four children brought to a clinic were injured in the crossfire. The Gaza health ministry said the Israeli military offensive prevented thousands more children from coming in. Reuters

Israel probes suspected Gaza intelligence leak by Netanyahu aide.  On Sunday, an Israeli court allowed the publication of the name of a media advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who is one of the people under investigation for leaking classified information.  The leaked material may have benefitted Netanyahu in Israel’s domestic political intrigues.  Netanyahu has denied any wrongdoing, The leaked documents, which showed up in a couple of articles in the U.K. and Germany, have been portrayed as an effort to shift blame away from Netanyahu for the collapse of Gaza ceasefire and hostage release talks.  If that’s the case, the tactic failed; the leaked documents were treated with skepticism by the Israeli media.  Reuters  Associated Press  

Israeli navy snatched Hezbollah naval expert from northern Lebanon. An Israeli naval force mounted a "special operation" in the northern Lebanese coastal town of Batroun early Friday and captured a Hezbollah operative known as Imad Amhaz, considered by the Israeli military to be expert on Hezbollah’s naval operations. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati has called for an investigation into the kidnapping of a Lebanese citizen.  The Times of Israel reported that Amhaz was taken to Israel to be questioned by the Military Intelligence Directorate’s Unit 504, which specializes in HUMINT, on Hezbollah’s naval operations.  Reuters  Times of Israel   

Israel says it detained Iranian spy in Syria.  The Israeli military said Sunday it recently went into Syria and detained Ali Soleiman al-Assi, a Syrian citizen working as a spy for Iran. It said Al-Assi had gathered intelligence on Israeli troops deployed along the border. "The operation by Israel Defense Forces troops to detain al-Assi prevented a future attack and led to the exposure of the operational methods of Iranian terror networks located near the Golan Heights," the military said.  It said Al-Assi was taken to Israel for investigation.  Reuters Associated Press

How Yemen’s Houthis became a formidable foe.  Yemen’s Houthi rebels have been transformed from a local armed group to a powerful military organization with support from Iran and its proxies. A new 537-page report by U.N. experts for the U.N. Security Council traces the Houthis’ rise. Its analysis of data from the International Maritime Organization, the U.S. and the United Kingdom found that at least 134 attacks were carried out from Houthi-controlled areas against merchant and commercial vessels and U.S. and U.K. warships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden between Nov. 15, 2023, and July 31, 2024. The U.N. experts said that the group’s actions at sea “increased their influence in the region.” In their attacks, the experts said, the Houthis used a new and previously undisclosed ballistic missile, the Hatem-2.  According to the experts, the number of Houthi fighters is estimated at 350,000 now, compared with 220,000 in 2022 and 30,000 in 2015.   Reuters Associated Press  

Israel formally notifies UN of end to relations with relief agency for Palestinian refugees.  Israel has formally notified the U.N. that it is terminating its longstanding agreement with UNRWA, the U.N. agency supporting Palestinian refugees, following new legislation passed by Israel’s parliament last month. This law bans UNRWA from operating in Israel and restricts cooperation between Israeli authorities and the agency, which provides essential aid and education in the West Bank and Gaza. Israel has accused UNRWA of harboring anti-Israel bias and claims Hamas has infiltrated the organization, with some staff allegedly involved in the recent conflict. While the law doesn’t directly prohibit UNRWA’s work in Palestinian territories, it significantly impacts the agency's operations there. The move has raised concerns among aid groups and Israel's allies, who fear it could worsen Gaza's humanitarian crisis. Israel plans to expand other international organizations’ activities and develop alternatives to UNRWA's services. Reuters The Jerusalem Post Haaretz 

UNICEF reports killing of 50 children in Gaza in just 48 hours. UNICEF has reported that over 50 children were tragically killed in northern Gaza’s Jabalia area between Friday and Saturday when airstrikes destroyed two residential buildings. Additional attacks disrupted a polio vaccination campaign in Gaza, injuring at least three children near a clinic in Sheikh Radwan. UNICEF’s executive director called for an investigation into these incidents, though Israel denied responsibility for the Sheikh Radwan strike. Politico UNICEF Al Jazeera Euronews  

Palestinians, Israeli soldiers say Israeli forces used human shields in Gaza.  Four Palestinians told The Washington Post that Israeli forces in Gaza used detained Palestinians as human shields. The Palestinians described being detained, interrogated and then released by Israeli forces after tasks like checking buildings for explosives before Israeli troops entered. Other witnesses corroborated the claims, and they were consistent with testimony by an Israeli soldier who fought in Gaza. The Israel Defense Forces did not respond to specific allegations but said the use of civilians as human shields is prohibited.  Washington Post

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

ANALYSIS–Putin is unlikely to negotiate, regardless of who wins the US election. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears unwilling to negotiate on Ukraine, regardless of the U.S. election outcome. Analysts suggest his strategy relies on exploiting divisions within the West and sustaining a long-term war. Putin views Ukraine as a vehicle to challenge U.S. influence and disrupt Western unity, particularly given fractures in NATO and financial pressures among European allies. Thomas Graham of the Council on Foreign Relations and John Lough of Chatham House note that Putin’s tactics include heavy troop mobilization, widespread drone use, and attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure to demoralize civilians. This relentless approach diminishes prospects for negotiation on Ukrainian terms. CNN

As US elections loom, Ukrainian officials are ready for Trump. As the U.S. election nears, Ukrainian officials brace for potential shifts in U.S. policy. While Ukraine publicly pledges to work with any administration, some officials believe a Donald Trump victory could offer fresh opportunities. Despite Trump’s criticisms of U.S. aid to Ukraine and his advocacy for a quick end that may benefit Russia, some Ukrainians see his “simple solutions” approach as potentially advantageous, recalling his administration's initial provision of lethal aid in 2019. Nonetheless, concerns linger over Trump possibly pushing Ukraine toward territorial concessions. The election intensifies Ukrainian anxieties amid frustrations with U.S. caution. Washington Post

Russia feigns indifference over the US election but roots quietly for Trump. Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to quietly favor a Donald Trump victory in the U.S. election, as Trump’s stance aligns with Moscow's interests, including potentially curtailing U.S. support for Ukraine. However, Putin remains cautious; while Trump’s promises to quickly end the war in Ukraine and ease sanctions could benefit Russia, past experiences suggest he might not deliver. Trump’s vice-presidential pick, JD Vance, has even floated a peace plan that would see Ukraine cede territory, but analysts doubt Putin would accept partial measures. In contrast, Kamala Harris represents a predictable continuation of support for Ukraine. Ultimately, Putin’s strategic focus remains on exploiting U.S. divisions. While Trump may offer some advantages, he lacks the consistency that Putin seeks in reshaping U.S.-Russia relations. Washington Post Al Jazeera

Trump or Harris? For Ukraine, Two Very Different Futures Loom. As Ukraine faces setbacks, the U.S. election is pivotal for its future. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris propose starkly different approaches to U.S. support in the war. Trump has suggested he could quickly broker a peace deal but also criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, raising concerns about potential cuts to aid. Zelensky has signaled economic incentives to support Kyiv, highlighting Ukraine’s vast mineral wealth and suggesting Ukrainian troops could supplement U.S. forces in Europe. Conversely, Harris is expected to continue Biden’s cautious approach, which Kyiv views as limiting Ukraine’s offensive capabilities. Ukraine says comprehensive American support remains crucial to preventing further Russian gains and achieving a durable peace. New York Times

Germany's upstart leftists chip at pro-Ukraine consensus.  Germany's new leftist populist party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), has gained leverage in Brandenburg, Thuringia, and Saxony by conditioning coalition partnerships on opposition to arming Ukraine. This stance challenges Germany's pro-Ukraine consensus and strains Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition, particularly within his Social Democrats (SPD), whose Brandenburg branch recently endorsed BSW's anti-weapon stance. Some SPD members and Greens have criticized this approach as undermining Germany's security. Although regional governments lack direct foreign policy influence, the BSW's position reflects waning public support for Ukraine. Wagenknecht's strict anti-war stance risks internal fractures, testing her young party’s cohesion. Reuters

Stopping aid to Ukraine will cost Germany much more than continuing it. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy warns that halting military aid to Ukraine could impose far greater costs on Germany than sustaining it. Current aid totals €10.6 billion since 2022, about 0.1% of GDP. By contrast, discontinuing support could increase Germany’s expenses by 1–2% of GDP, driven by heightened defense spending, an influx of refugees, and trade losses. Other European nations contribute a higher GDP percentage to aid. The report argues that credible deterrence through sustained military support is crucial for peace, as it discourages Russian aggression and reduces economic and geopolitical instability. Militarnyi

German foreign minister visits Kyiv and vows support. On Monday, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visited Kyiv and emphasized Ukraine’s need for support “to ensure its very survival” as it faces a harsh third winter of war with intensified Russian airstrikes and North Korean arms support. Upon her arrival, Baerbock highlighted Germany’s extended energy aid of €170 million to restore bombed infrastructure, noting that Ukraine is also defending European freedom. Baerbock is set to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky and Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha. Reuters

Worldwide majority supports Ukrainian victory over Russia, poll says. The Economist’s global poll reveals strong support for Ukraine, with 54% of respondents favoring a Ukrainian victory over Russia’s 20%. This backing spans 25 of the 30 surveyed countries, with Europe and allies like Japan and South Korea showing the highest solidarity. Surprisingly, non-aligned nations, including Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa, also lean pro-Ukraine, contrasting with their leaders’ more Russia-friendly stances. However, significant support for Russia emerged in Egypt, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam, attributed to historical or strategic ties. The findings suggest widespread global public favor for Ukraine, even in countries with diplomatic or military leanings toward Russia. The Economist Kyiv Independent

Ukraine faces the toughest winter yet as energy shortages loom. Ukraine braces for its toughest winter yet, facing daily blackouts of 8 to 20 hours as Russia’s air attacks decimate energy infrastructure. Following missile strikes that destroyed eight power plants and over 800 heat facilities, Ukraine’s power generation capacity has been halved, leaving it reliant on exposed nuclear facilities. Kyiv is racing to rebuild, deploying defenses, but air defense systems and critical parts are scarce. A cold snap could worsen the crisis, driving more Ukrainians to seek refuge in Europe. The European Union and other allies provide limited support, including increased power exports, though insufficient to meet Ukraine’s needs. Politico EU

As Russia Advances, US Fears Ukraine Has Entered a Grim Phase. Russia’s advances in eastern Ukraine have intensified concerns in Kyiv and Washington. U.S. officials report a shift away from a stalemate, with Ukraine losing territory and suffering heavy casualties as it struggles to recruit forces. "The Armed Forces of Ukraine are holding back one of the most powerful Russian offensives from launching a full-scale invasion," commander-in-chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi wrote on Saturday, as Moscow said it had taken more settlements in the Donbas. While weapons supplies have improved, manpower remains Ukraine’s top challenge. Russia has tapped North Korean troops and adjusted recruiting strategies. New York Times Reuters 

Ukraine Attacks North Korean Troops Deployed Near Russia Border. Ukrainian forces have engaged North Korean troops deployed in Russia's Kursk region, marking the first such encounter since Pyongyang dispatched approximately 10,000 soldiers to support Moscow's war efforts. Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, confirmed the engagement but did not provide specific details regarding the circumstances or casualties. “The first North Korean troops have already come under fire in the Kursk region,” Kovalenko said. The deployment of North Korean troops to Kursk aims to bolster Russian defenses against Ukrainian incursions that began in August. Bloomberg Kyiv Independent

China was aware of North Korean troop deployment ahead of time, expert says. China publicly denied knowledge of North Korea’s troop deployment to support Russia in Ukraine, though experts believe Beijing likely approved it. North Korea, highly reliant on China, wouldn’t act without its consent, says Mathieu Boulegue from the Center for European Policy Analysis. China provides Russia with essential dual-use goods, bolstering Moscow’s war efforts indirectly. Observers suggest North Korea’s alliance with Russia may unsettle Beijing by potentially reducing Pyongyang’s dependence on China. However, China benefits from a “proxy war” that keeps the West occupied while China maintains plausible deniability and avoids confrontation with Western allies. Kyiv Independent

Zelensky urges allies to start acting on North Korea. President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Ukraine's allies to take decisive action against the presence of North Korean troops in Russia. In a video posted on Telegram, Zelensky warned that thousands of North Korean soldiers are near the Ukrainian border and may soon confront Ukrainian forces. He criticized Western nations for not providing Kyiv with the long-range weapons to target these troops. He urged action to prevent the expansion of the war. This plea follows reports of North Korea's commitment to support Russia until it achieves victory in Ukraine. Reuters

Zelensky seeks preemptive strikes on North Korean troops. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky renewed calls for Western allies to permit the use of long-range weapons on Russian soil to target North Korean troops stationed in Russia’s Kursk region. He urged preemptive strikes, noting that Ukraine can pinpoint troop sites but is restricted by Western limitations. The U.S., UK, and Germany are hesitant, fearing escalation with Russia.  Business Insider

South Korean minister says all scenarios are under consideration for aiding Ukraine. South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul said Friday that all options, including sending weapons to Ukraine, are under consideration in response to North Korea’s military support for Russia. South Korea closely monitors North Korean troop involvement and what benefits Pyongyang might receive from Moscow.  Seoul has so far only provided non-lethal aid to Ukraine.  Reuters

ANALYSIS–US Has Few Options in Response to North Korean Troops Fighting for Russia. The U.S. options to counter North Korean troop deployment to Russia are constrained by existing sanctions. With Moscow and Pyongyang already under severe sanctions, adding new ones might have limited impact, as both countries have developed workarounds to mitigate economic damage. Analysts suggest a more aggressive approach to enforcing current sanctions—especially closing loopholes—could be more effective. Lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range Western weapons has also been debated. The U.S. hesitates, as stockpiles are low, and there are concerns about escalating the war further. The U.S. presidential election reduces the likelihood of bold actions. Consequently, options remain narrow: tightening sanction enforcement or cautiously expanding support without crossing red lines that could lead to direct confrontation with Russia. Wall Street Journal

Kim Jong Un has sent North Korean troops to Russia. What’s in it for him?  Kim Jong Un’s decision to deploy North Korean troops to Russia likely aims to secure economic and military concessions that could bolster his regime amid severe sanctions. By supporting Russia, Kim may gain access to advanced military technology, including missile and satellite capabilities that North Korea has struggled to develop independently. Economic aid or fuel supplies could help alleviate North Korea’s shortages. Aligning with Russia offers Kim a platform to showcase defiance against international isolation. Russia, meanwhile, gains manpower while signaling deeper military partnerships in Asia. Washington Post

Russia Showers Cash on Men Enlisting in Ukraine War, Bringing Prosperity to Some Towns. Russia’s war on Ukraine has brought wealth to impoverished Russian towns, especially in Siberia, through payments to soldiers enlisting for the frontline. With patriotism waning, the Kremlin is turning to financial incentives, offering hefty signing bonuses, high monthly wages, and "coffin money" for families of the fallen. For many poor men, joining offers a last shot at financial stability, transforming their lifestyles. The payments have sparked local economic booms, with consumer spending and debt repayments soaring. However, some question the sustainability of these payouts. To recruit 30,000 new soldiers a month – roughly equal to the number killed or wounded monthly – the frontline Belgorod region has offered a signing bonus of $30,000, beating Moscow, which offers $20,000. Salaries start at $2,100 a month for frontline fighters. The families of slain soldiers are paid $150,000. New York Times

Ukraine needs 500,000 more troops amid slowing mobilization, senior lawmaker says. Roman Kostenko, secretary of Ukraine's parliamentary defense committee, said on Saturday that Ukraine needs to mobilize 500,000 additional troops due to the challenging battlefield conditions. Although a goal of 200,000 recruits was set under a mobilization law in April, enlistment rates have slowed since September. Kostenko’s assessment aligns with former Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhnyi’s earlier recommendation. President Volodymyr Zelensky estimated the cost of such large-scale mobilization at 500 billion hryvnias ($12 billion). Currently, Ukraine plans to mobilize an additional 160,000 soldiers, supplementing the 1.05 million already in service, to address casualties and support frontline troops. Kyiv Independent

Russia’s use of unidentified gas surges on the front line. Russia's intensified chemical warfare tactics in Ukraine see unidentified gases deployed to terrify and expose Ukrainian soldiers to artillery and drone strikes. Due to inadequate detection equipment, Ukraine can only identify a fraction of these agents. Russia's drones drop gas grenades in trenches, forcing soldiers into vulnerable positions. Despite sanctions from the U.S. and U.K., the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has yet to confirm Russia's chemical weapon use, citing insufficient evidence. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine Official Accuses Google Maps of Giving Away Military Positions. A Ukrainian official accused Google Maps of revealing military positions, which Russia is allegedly exploiting to highlight Ukrainian equipment locations. Google responded by pledging to remove these images. Experts suggest a limited impact on Ukraine’s forces, as the imagery mainly captures stationary sites, while frontline conditions change frequently. Newsweek

Ukraine's mortar shell production surge stymied by explosives shortage. Ukraine has boosted mortar shell production to millions annually since the war began, addressing critical defense needs amid Russia’s ongoing assault. However, global shortages of explosives are hampering Ukraine’s efforts to expand further. Ukraine’s increased artillery and shell output still falls short compared to Russia’s vast military industry, capable of producing 3 million artillery shells annually. Despite these obstacles, Ukraine aims to scale up missile production, focusing on producing domestically developed missiles like the Palyanytsia. Reuters

Tusk government suggests military aid to Ukraine on loan terms. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government may provide military aid to Ukraine on credit, allowing Ukraine to repay after the war. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski noted that Poland has its defense priorities and emphasized Poland’s substantial military support to Ukraine. NV Kyiv Independent

Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of obstructing prisoner-of-war swaps. Russia and Ukraine are accusing each other of hindering prisoner-of-war exchanges. Ukrainian Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets urged Russia on Sunday to provide a list of Ukrainian prisoners ready for exchange. Russia’s Foreign Ministry claimed Ukraine has been obstructing the process, accepting only 279 of 935 prisoners offered by Russia. Russia's human rights commissioner, Tatyana Moskalkova, criticized Ukraine for “politicizing” the issue. The latest exchange occurred in October, with 95 prisoners on each side. Reuters Reuters

Russia launched around 900 bombs, 500 Shahed drones and 30 missiles at Ukraine over past week, Zelensky says.  Over the past week, Russia launched over 900 bombs, nearly 500 Shahed drones, and around 30 missiles targeting Ukraine's civilian and critical infrastructure, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on Sunday. He urged allies to provide Ukraine with long-range weapons and enforce stronger sanctions to curb Russia’s access to essential drone and missile components. Zelensky emphasized Ukraine's right to security. Recent strikes killed three civilians, injured 24, and damaged numerous homes and infrastructure, authorities said on Sunday. Kyiv Independent

Over 200 Russian drones shot down by US-funded mobile fire teams since January, US ambassador reports. U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink said on Sunday that 800 U.S.-funded mobile fire teams have shot down over 200 Russian drones since January 2024. Operated by Ukraine's National Guard and State Border Guard Service, these teams protect civilians and infrastructure from increasing Russian drone attacks. Funded by the U.S. Department of State, the initiative addresses Russia’s heavy reliance on Shahed-type drones, which continue to target Ukraine intensively. Kyiv Independent

Russia attacks supermarket in Kharkiv, injures at least 15.  Russia’s Sunday attack on Kharkiv's Shevchenkivskyi district injured at least 15 people and damaged a supermarket, apartment buildings, and vehicles. Among the wounded were four police officers, and power lines were also impacted. This assault follows a deadly escalation in Kharkiv, where recent strikes have targeted residential areas and historic sites. On Friday, two S-400 missiles hit a police station, killing one officer and injuring 46. Prior attacks included an Oct. 28 bombing of the UNESCO-protected Derzhprom building and multiple fatalities in nearby apartments, marking an intensifying aerial campaign against the city as winter approaches. Kyiv Independent Reuters

Russia Says It Captured Ukraine Village Near Logistics Hub. Russia claimed to have captured the Vichneve, advancing within 12 kilometers of Ukraine’s key logistics hub, Pokrovsk. Moscow’s forces have gained ground in eastern Donetsk, seizing dozens of towns, including Kurakhivka and Pershotravneve. Russia captured 478 square kilometers in October, marking its fastest territorial gains since March 2022. Barron’s

Kupiansk trembles as Russian forces close in again. Kupiansk faces peril as Russian forces approach, with Moscow aiming to flatten and reoccupy the city. Residents have fled after relentless shelling destroyed homes and lives. The frontline has shifted rapidly, with Russia capturing territory around Kupiansk and encroaching within two miles. Kupiansk’s mayor reports 1,400 residents refusing evacuation despite worsening conditions. Russian drones targeted civilians, and airstrikes destroyed buildings near the mayor’s office. Ukrainian soldiers express frustration over Western limitations on targeting Russian positions. The Guardian

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 8, injure 120 over the weekend. Russian strikes across Ukraine on Friday, Saturday and Sunday killed eight people and wounded 120, authorities said on Sunday. In Kharkiv, two S-400 missiles hit a police station, killing one officer and injuring 46 people. Six people died in the Donetsk Oblast settlements of Sukhi Yaly, Yuriivka, Ivanopillia, and Chasiv Yar. In Kherson Oblast, 15 settlements were attacked, injuring seven people.in Kherson, one person was killed, and 10 others were wounded. Russian strikes targeted multiple regions, causing widespread damage to homes, infrastructure, and public facilities. Kyiv Independent

Russian drone attack on Kyiv on Sunday damages buildings and power lines, A Russian drone assault on Kyiv damaged buildings, roads, and power lines, though no injuries were reported. Kyiv’s second attack in two nights came in waves from different directions. Kyiv's military administrator said Sunday that all drones were intercepted, though debris hit buildings, damaging a hostel, office, and other structures. Reuters Associated Press

Russia targets Kyiv in an hours-long drone attack on Saturday.Russia launched a drone assault on Kyiv that lasted into midday, wounding two persons, damaging residential areas, and sparking fires. Kyiv’s military administrator reported that all drones targeting the capital were intercepted. The attack damaged power lines, though electricity was restored. Ukrainian forces destroyed 39 of the 71 drones launched, while 21 were “locationally lost.” Reuters Euronews

Russia attacked Ukraine with more than 2,000 drones in October, Kyiv says. In October, Russia launched over 2,000 attack drones across Ukraine, with Kyiv intercepting 1,185 and losing track of 738. Moscow targeted civilian and critical infrastructure, hitting Kyiv 20 times last month. As power cuts loom, Ukraine braces for further attacks on its weakened energy system. Reuters

Russian missiles kill a police officer in a strike on Kharkiv.A Russian missile strike on Kharkiv killed a senior police officer and injured 30 others on Friday, including four civilians. S-300 missiles targeted a police site and damaged buildings, with some injuries reported as severe. A separate attack struck residential areas earlier, highlighting Kharkiv's vulnerability. Reuters

Russia jails ex-US consular employee on security charges. A Russian court on Friday sentenced Robert Shonov, a former U.S. consular employee in Vladivostok, to nearly five years in prison, accusing him of working with the U.S. to undermine Russia's national security. Detained by the Federal Security Service (FSB) in May 2023, Shonov allegedly supplied U.S. diplomats with intelligence on Russia's military actions in Ukraine. A video released by the FSB shows Shonov admitting to gathering "negative" information, though it’s unclear if he spoke under duress. The U.S. condemned his conviction, saying the charges were “wholly without merit.” Reuters

Slovakia's SPP says a European gas deal with Azerbaijan is not in sight. Slovak gas company SPP on Friday dismissed reports of an imminent deal for Azerbaijani gas to replace Russian imports via Ukraine, contradicting claims that Hungary and Slovakia were close to securing 12-14 billion cubic meters annually. As Europe seeks alternatives with the Russia-Ukraine gas deal expiring, Moscow has expressed willingness to continue supplies, but Kyiv refuses. Despite high costs and bottlenecks in other pipelines, SPP remains engaged in talks to keep transit open. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Azerbaijan’s SOCAR also expressed skepticism over the likelihood of a near-term agreement. Reuters

Scenes of Trench Warfare in the Age of Drones. Embedded with the Ukrainian 28th Mechanized Brigade, photographer Tyler Hicks documented trench warfare in eastern Ukraine, where high-tech drones and brutal combat tactics shape each skirmish. Russian forces attack Ukrainian positions near Toretsk. Drones limit maneuverability, forcing Ukrainian troops to engage quickly from fortified bunkers. A Russian breakthrough here could sever vital Ukrainian supply lines, threatening key cities in the Donbas. The battlefield mirrors past wars despite modern technology. Ukrainian soldiers fight to prevent Russian forces from achieving one of Vladimir Putin's main war goals. New York Times

Russia says two killed in Ukrainian drone attack on convent. Russian investigators reported Friday that a Ukrainian drone attack killed two people at a convent in Russia's Kursk region in late October. The victims, reportedly young men assisting in evacuations, were killed amid escalating border hostilities. Russian authorities opened a case against suspected Ukrainian perpetrators as border tensions continue intensifying. Reuters

Ukraine will produce anti-drone missiles with a Belgian manufacturer. Thales Belgium and Ukraine’s defense industry signed an agreement to produce missiles to counter Russia’s drone threat jointly. This collaboration is expected to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities and protect critical infrastructure from Russian drone strikes, which reached over 2,000 in October alone, setting a record. The partnership includes plans for technology transfer and production of missile components in Ukraine, expanding Kyiv's defense manufacturing capacity. Thales is a global leader in missile systems, specializing in rocket systems that include fire control, weapons, and ammunition, particularly 70mm air-to-ground rockets. Kyiv Independent

Ukrainian Armed Forces to use new turret with machine guns. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have approved the Tavriia combat module, a remotely operated turret featuring two machine guns, including a large-caliber option. Designed for armored vehicles or ground robotic platforms, Tavriia tracks and targets moving objects day and night. The turret’s armor shields it from small arms fire and debris, with controls located inside armored vehicles for added operator safety. Ukrainska Pravda

Russia Shows Off Purported US National Snatched From Ukraine Spy Work. Russian media reported on Saturday that Russia extracted U.S. citizen Daniel Martindale from territory controlled by Ukraine, alleging he had aided Russian forces by relaying Ukrainian military coordinates. Martindale expressed his desire to obtain Russian citizenship, claiming he wanted to save Russian soldiers' lives. The U.S. Embassy in Moscow hasn’t commented. RFE/RL Reuters

Czech president allows 60 Czech citizens to join Ukraine's Armed Forces. Czech President Petr Pavel has granted 60 Czech citizens official permission to join Ukraine’s Armed Forces, with 181 requests submitted. Czech law prohibits joining foreign armies without presidential approval. Four Czech volunteers have been killed in action. Ukrainska Pravda

Ukraine fooled Russia with the same deceptions Germany used at WWII's Battle of the Bulge. Ukraine’s August offensive into Russia’s Kursk region mirrored tactics used by Germany in the 1944 Battle of the Bulge, achieving operational surprise despite pervasive Russian surveillance. Like Germany, Ukraine identified weak spots and thinned Russian defenses. The offensive was planned in secrecy, with only key commanders aware, limiting leaks and misleading Russian intelligence with disinformation. Ukraine used targeted strikes to disrupt Russian surveillance and defenses, employing drones, artillery, and mines. While Ukraine’s success shocked Moscow, the offensive hasn’t led to big territorial gains or forced a major shift in Russian deployments from Ukraine. Nevertheless, Ukraine’s incursion demonstrates that surprise attacks remain feasible in modern warfare. Business Insider

Russian Soldiers and Civilians are Turning on the Ukraine War.  Opposition to Russia's invasion of Ukraine is rising among civilians and soldiers, leading to record convictions for treason, extremism, and disinformation under severe Kremlin crackdowns. Despite tactical gains, Russia's military has failed to achieve broader objectives, suffering significant casualties and equipment losses. Originally intended as a rapid operation, the war has dragged on for nearly 1,000 days, severely degrading Russia's military capacity. As an international outcast, Russia aligns with pariah states like North Korea and Iran. The war has global implications, with no end in sight. The Kremlin employs extreme measures to control the narrative. The National Interest

Russia's defense sector is running on overdrive — but firms are warning of bankruptcy. Russia nearly tripled its defense budget, from $59 billion in 2022 to a projected $140 billion in 2024, to finance its war on Ukraine. However, defense firms are struggling despite high demand due to inflation and interest rates over 20%, which eat into profits. Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov warned that companies risk bankruptcy if this continues. Experts believe the Kremlin must bail out or nationalize these firms to prevent collapse. While defense spending has driven economic growth, inflation is rising, potentially leading to long-term economic instability. Business Insider

The pick-ups 'saving lives on the front line' in Ukraine. A Scottish charity, Pickups for Peace, has supplied over 500 vehicles to aid Ukraine’s front lines, with additional contributions from other UK organizations. These donated vehicles support troop transport, evacuations, and drone defense. Volunteers risk dangerous routes to keep soldiers mobile and save lives. Vehicles are repurposed for battalions and face harsh conditions, often returning severely damaged. BBC

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Nov 1-3.  Moldovan President Maia Sandu declared victory in the presidential runoff election on Sunday over pro-Kremlin candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo. The Russian Ministry of Defense’s centralization of drone operations is reportedly reducing drone effectiveness. A Ukrainian official stated that Russian naval infantry lacks elite status due to insufficient training and heavy losses among core professional forces. Ukrainian forces reportedly struck seven Russian radar and air defense systems since Oct. 20, with attacks including a strike on an S-300/400 system and a Buk air defense system. Russia's Roskomnadzor implemented a plan to deanonymize social media accounts with over 10,000 subscribers, requiring operator registration by January 2025. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov reversed a previous order prohibiting Akhmat Spetsnaz from taking Ukrainian soldiers as prisoners. Patriarch Kirill reiterated justifications for the war in Ukraine. Kirill attributed brutality within the Russian military to an emerging “neo-pagan” influence. Russian authorities continue to view ethnic and migrant tensions as significant internal issues. North Korean forces likely won’t be a long-term solution to Russia’s manpower challenges. Russia’s Ministry of Defense launched a digital system for veterans and their families to confirm veteran statuses.

Battlefield update:  Ukrainian forces advanced north of Sudzha. Ukrainian and Russian troops advanced within central Vovchansk, with additional Russian advances near Siversk, Pokrovsk, Vulhedar, Kupyansk, Kreminna, and Kurakhove. Ukrainian and Russian troops achieved minor advances near Sudzha in Kursk Oblast. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War Saturday-Institute for the Study of War Friday-Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: The Price of Principle Is Dwarfed by the Cost of Capitulation in Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III argues that supporting Ukraine is essential for American security and global stability. He highlights that Russia’s invasion, led by President Vladimir Putin, threatens the rules-based international order by violating Ukraine's sovereignty. Austin praises Ukraine’s resilience, noting the country’s strengthened defense capabilities and significant support from a coalition of 50 nations. The U.S. and its allies have provided billions in aid. Austin warns that capitulation would lead to a dangerous world where force prevails over freedom, underscoring the moral imperative of standing firm. Foreign Affairs

Opinion: The Perfect Has Become the Enemy of the Good in Ukraine. Richard Haass argues that the U.S. should redefine its objectives in Ukraine, moving from an idealistic goal of full territorial restoration to a pragmatic approach that secures Ukrainian sovereignty while minimizing conflict. Haass suggests the U.S. push for an interim ceasefire based on current frontlines, allowing Ukraine to rebuild while remaining independent and aligned with Western alliances. This approach, he contends, is more achievable given Russia’s superior manpower and Ukraine’s resource constraints. He warns that pursuing a maximalist strategy is costly and risks indefinite conflict, urging Biden to set a new course before leaving office. Foreign Affairs

Opinion: Ukrainians ask what I’m hearing about our country on the US campaign trail. The truth? We’re all but forgotten. Ukrainian journalist Nataliya Gumenyuk notes that Ukraine's fight is barely mentioned on the U.S. campaign trail, even as Ukrainians depend on Western support to counter Russian aggression. Ukrainian officials, facing challenges with both U.S. political camps, worry that Donald Trump’s election could halt military aid. Trump’s vice-presidential pick, JD Vance, has shown little interest in Ukraine, reflecting broader U.S. skepticism about foreign aid. President Joe Biden’s administration has been supportive but has avoided major actions before the election. Despite these uncertainties, Gumenyuk asserts that Ukraine will defend itself regardless of U.S. political shifts. The Guardian

Opinion: How a Trump peace ultimatum could end the Russia-Ukraine war. Alexander Temerko argues that Donald Trump could end the Russia-Ukraine war by issuing a peace ultimatum, leveraging U.S. support for Ukraine to compel negotiations. Russia's exhausted resources and Ukraine’s manpower shortages create a stalemate, leaving both sides vulnerable to U.S. influence. Trump could secure temporary peace by pushing a ceasefire, allowing Ukraine to fortify, integrate into Western alliances, and prepare for eventual territorial restoration. Temerko believes this approach would prevent disastrous outcomes for Ukraine and Russia, giving Ukraine vital time for rebuilding and potential NATO integration while pressuring Russia toward peace without total defeat. The Hill

Opinion: Ukraine's Bradley Fighting Vehicle Dilemma. Harrison Kass argues that Ukraine’s reliance on U.S.-supplied Bradley Fighting Vehicles highlights a Western military aid strategy dilemma. While the U.S. has provided over 300 Bradleys, critics believe Western weapons were given in insufficient quantities, limiting Ukraine's ability to strategize effectively. The incremental aid delivery has led to a static frontline, with critics noting that small, delayed shipments restrict Ukraine’s operational flexibility. Kass suggests that Ukraine might consider advocating for peace as a more sustainable long-term strategy. The National Interest

Opinion: North Korean troops fighting Ukraine marks a dangerous new escalation. North Korea’s deployment of combat troops to aid Russian forces marks a dangerous escalation in the Ukraine war, potentially broadening the conflict globally. North Korea’s soldiers are part of Vladimir Putin’s strategy to avoid isolation and prolong the war. This “axis” of hostile powers—Russia, North Korea, Iran, and China—poses a growing threat to U.S. global interests. The editorial emphasizes the need for strong responses from the West. Washington Post

AMERICAS

Opinion: Fighters and bombers are what America needs to win—not quadcopters.  Retired USAF Gen. T. Michael Moseley argues that America’s military strength hinges on advanced fighters and bombers, not on small drones like quadcopters. Recent Israeli and U.S. missions—using F-35 and B-2 aircraft—demonstrate the need for air superiority and deep-strike capabilities to secure strategic objectives, he contends. While drones are helpful in tactical ground operations, Moseley said they cannot replace modern combat aircraft in achieving operational and strategic goals. He warns that a reduced fighter-bomber fleet risks U.S. security, urging America to effectively rebuild its air power arsenal to deter adversaries. Defense News

U.S. to deploy old Patriots on navy vessels amid rivalry with China’s missile advancements.  The United States is preparing to deploy Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (PAC-3 MSE) interceptors on its naval ships to counter China's growing missile capabilities, particularly hypersonic weapons. Originally an army asset, these interceptors could boost U.S. naval defenses and provide strategic benefits to allies like Japan and South Korea. The integration aims to counter China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy, which uses overwhelming numbers of missiles and troops to control critical areas like the Taiwan Strait. Experts note that the PAC-3 MSE system complements existing defenses but may not fully counter the A2/AD strategy, indicating that potential future technologies such as lasers may be needed. Japan plans to co-produce these interceptors, meeting demand and strengthening defense partnerships. While China has criticized the move as U.S. posturing, the PAC-3 MSE marks an innovative shift, adapting land-based technology to enhance naval defense.  South China Morning Post 

India objects to Canada’s accusations that home minister Amit Shah planned attacks against of Sikh activists. New Delhi on Saturday formally protested against Canada’s allegation that Indian Home Minister Amit Shah ordered the targeting of Sikh activists on Canadian soil, calling it “absurd and baseless.” Tensions between the two nations intensified after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau claimed India was involved in the assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, which New Delhi strongly denies. India has repeatedly accused Ottawa of enabling Sikh separatists who are part of the Khalistan movement, which aims to establish a Sikh homeland. Diplomatic friction between the nations resulted in the reciprocal expulsion of top diplomats last month. The U.S. also recently charged an Indian official in a separate alleged plot against a Sikh leader in New York, which India stated it would investigate seriously. Associated Press Al Jazeera Reuters

Supporters of Bolivian ex-President Evo Morales took 200 soldiers hostage, government alleges. The Bolivian government has accused supporters of former President Evo Morales of taking more than 200 soldiers hostage and seizing weapons and ammunition. This incident comes amid ongoing unrest related to an investigation into allegations of statutory rape against Morales. Bolivia’s Foreign Ministry condemned the hostage situation, claiming that “irregular groups” carried out the attack, though it did not specify the groups involved. President Luis Arce labeled the assault on military barracks in the coca-growing region of Chapare as criminal acts. Morales has been hiding in Chapare, where loyalists protect him from potential arrest, demanding that the charges against him be dropped. The Foreign Ministry expressed willingness for dialogue but criticized the actions as self-serving. Clashes between security forces and Morales supporters have escalated recently, resulting in both injuries and arrests. These tensions reflect a deepening rift between Arce and Morales, who are vying for control of the ruling party ahead of the 2025 elections. Associated Press BBC Deutsche Welle CNN

EUROPE

Moldovan President Seals Election Win to Revive Push to Join EU. Moldova’s pro-Western President Maia Sandu won a second term on Sunday, defeating Russia-backed Alexandr Stoianoglo with 55% of the vote. Sandu’s victory, bolstered by Moldova’s large diaspora, is a strong mandate for her European Union integration agenda. The election was marred by allegations of Russian interference, including vote-buying and cyberattacks. Sandu’s campaign centered on moving Moldova closer to the EU and countering Russian influence, which intensified after Russia invaded Ukraine. Stoianoglo, favoring balanced ties with Moscow and the EU, received significant support within Moldova, highlighting the nation’s internal divisions. Moldova has strong cultural and historical connections with Romania, having been part of Romania between the World Wars. Many Moldovans hold Romanian passports, granting them the right to travel, work, and reside in the EU. This bond reinforces Moldova’s pro-European orientation amid regional geopolitical tensions. Associated Press Reuters South China Morning Post  Bloomberg The Economist New York Times RFE/RL

Poland’s commission looking into Russian influences finds ex-defense minister at fault. Poland's commission on Russian influence has found former Defense Minister Antoni Macierewicz at fault for decisions that allegedly weakened Poland’s defense capabilities ahead of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The commission, led by Gen. Jaroslaw Stróżyk, claims Macierewicz’s cancellation of a tanker aircraft deal for F-16 fighters and closure of intelligence bureaus impaired Poland’s military readiness. The commission, established by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European Union government, has referred Macierewicz to prosecutors. This is the second instance where Tusk’s administration has implicated Macierewicz, who dismissed the findings as “absurd.” Associated Press

Sanctioned former Russia central banker joins IMF executive board. Ksenia Yudaeva, a sanctioned Russian economist and former First Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, was recently appointed as the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) executive director for Russia and Syria. Previously a key advisor to Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Yudaeva has played a major role in maintaining Russia’s financial stability. Her appointment comes amid controversies surrounding Russia’s IMF engagement due to its war on Ukraine. Despite her sanctioned status, Yudaeva will represent Russian interests in the IMF’s decision-making body, which shapes policies affecting the global economy. Reuters

North Korean troops on Ukraine’s border drive Europe to deepen East Asian defense ties. The European Union is bolstering defense ties with Japan and South Korea amid concerns over North Korean troops stationed near Ukraine and China's support for Russia. EU diplomat Josep Borrell emphasized the "interlinked" security of Europe and the Indo-Pacific, as EU-Japan defense agreements include joint naval exercises. Former Finnish President Sauli Niinisto’s report highlights the strategic convergence of China and Russia as reshaping global security. Europe worries that Chinese backing of Russia jeopardizes European security, while China and North Korea’s involvement complicates regional stability. South Korea and European states are enhancing military readiness in response. South China Morning Post

EU'S Borrell visits South Korea amid alarm over North Korean troops in Russia. On Monday, European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell is in Seoul, South Korea, meeting with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul to discuss security cooperation and concerns over North Korea’s deployment of troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine. Borrell, who visited the Demilitarized Zone between the Koreas, emphasized the need for peace. He also met South Korea’s defense minister to address North Korea’s potential military gains from its alliance with Moscow. Reuters

ANALYSIS–Split on Economic Policy Puts Germany’s Government at Risk of Collapse. Germany’s coalition government, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, faces potential collapse amid deep divisions on economic policy. Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the Free Democratic Party has proposed cutting social spending and scrapping a “solidarity tax,” clashing with coalition partners focused on welfare and climate initiatives. Analysts warn that a collapse could leave Germany directionless, compromising its ability to respond to security challenges, particularly if Donald Trump wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Trump’s return could disrupt NATO unity and European security, making a stable German government essential to maintaining support for Ukraine and countering geopolitical threats. New York Times

Opinion: 'Georgia Is Heading In The Direction Of Belarus.'   Edward Lucas warns that Georgia is veering toward authoritarianism, akin to Belarus, following its Oct. 26 national elections. He attributes the ruling Georgian Dream party’s success partly to election manipulation, voter intimidation, and a campaign prioritizing “safety over freedom.” Lucas criticizes Western apathy, with few leaders aside from Viktor Orban acknowledging Georgia’s situation, overshadowed by other global crises. He sees Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgian Dream’s founder, as using authoritarian tactics fueled by money and media influence to maintain control. Lucas advises patience, hopeful only that a Ukrainian victory could weaken Russian influence and reinvigorate Georgia’s democratic prospects. RFE/RL

Japan will help Romania generate green electricity destined for Ukraine.Japan and Romania plan to jointly invest trillions in decarbonization projects in Romania, with renewable energy produced to be used domestically and exported to Ukraine. A statement will outline energy aid to Ukraine and establish a framework for green investments. Japanese and Romanian funds, including help from Japan's New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, will support hydroelectric and solar initiatives by companies like Itochu and Panasonic. Romania will access EU funds for decarbonization, targeting a fossil fuel reduction by 2032. Japan may also offer technology for hydrogen production and carbon capture. Nikkei Asia 

U.K.’s Starmer says he will treat human-smuggling gangs like terrorists.U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has announced plans to double the budget for Britain’s border security agency to £150 million ($194 million) and treat people-smuggling gangs like terror networks in an effort to curb migrant crossings in the English Channel. In an upcoming speech to Interpol, he plans on advocating for greater international cooperation and enhanced law enforcement powers against smuggling networks. The funding increase will support high-tech surveillance and add 100 specialist investigators. Associated Press 

Turkey sacks pro-Kurdish mayors, replaces them with state officials in country’s southeast. Turkey removed three pro-Kurdish mayors from office in southeastern cities on Monday, replacing them with state-appointed officials due to terrorism-related convictions or charges. The mayors of Mardin, Batman, and Halfeti, all from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party, were unseated. The DEM Party, which has 57 seats in parliament, has seen several mayors removed on similar grounds in the past. Recently, a mayor from the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) was also arrested over alleged links to the banned Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The dismissals align with a recent proposal by President Erdogan’s main political ally to address Ankara’s decades-long conflict with the PKK. Reuters Associated Press Washington Post France 24 

MIDDLE EAST

Tehran has detained an Iranian-American journalist, says U.S. The U.S. State Department has confirmed the detention of an Iranian-American journalist by Tehran, though it has not yet verified the identity of the person. Media reports suggest that the journalist is Reza Valizadeh, who previously worked for Radio Farda, a U.S. government-funded broadcaster linked to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, which is considered to be hostile by Iran. In a message to The New York Times, RFE/RL said it has “no official confirmation of the charges against him.” Valizadeh, who returned to the Middle Eastern nation this year without a security guarantee, was detained but later released, before being rearrested around September. He is now being held in Iran’s notorious Evin Prison, facing a case in the Revolutionary Court. Washington is working with Swiss intermediaries to gather details, as Iran has not acknowledged his arrest. This incident comes amid heightened regional tensions, with Iran celebrating the anniversary of the 1979 U.S. Embassy takeover and threatening retaliation against Israel and the U.S. in response to recent conflicts. Reporters Without Borders has stated that Tehran is “one of the world’s biggest jailers of journalists.”Associated Press New York Times Wall Street Journal South China Morning Post 

Yemen's Houthis says they will maintain blockade on Israeli vessels.Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis announced on Sunday that they would maintain a maritime blockade against Israeli vessels, citing intelligence that Israeli shipping companies are trying to sell their assets to other companies. Military spokesperson Yahya Sarea warned against collaboration with these companies, asserting that they would refuse to recognize any changes of ownership, and would target any ships linked to the Jewish state or heading to it. The blockade, they stated, will persist until Israel’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon cease. Reuters 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Taiwan detects surge in Chinese military activity, as U.S. presidential election approaches.  Taiwan’s defense ministry on Sunday reported observing 35 Chinese military aircraft, including fighters and bombers, flying south of Taiwan enroute to exercises in the Pacific for a second consecutive day. The self-governing island initially detected 37 Chinese military aircraft, including J-16 fighters, nuclear-capable H-6 bombers and drones, before the majority flew south to conduct long-range training. Taipei deployed its own forces to monitor the drills. Reuters

US tests long-range B-1B bomber in trilateral drill with South Korea, Japan. The United States conducted a joint military drill with South Korea and Japan on Sunday in response to North Korea's recent test of the Hwasong-19 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which is designed to reach the U.S. mainland. The trilateral exercise, which occurred near the Korean Peninsula, involved a B-1B bomber, which has the capability to carry a large conventional weapons payload. The U.S. regularly deploys powerful military assets in the area following major North Korean tests. This drill marks the second trilateral aerial training between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan this year, showing unity against Pyongyang’s advancing missile program. Associated Press Taipei Times Euronews Deutsche Welle  

Myanmar’s junta leader to travel to China for first visit since seizing power. Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing is set to visit China this week to attend regional summits, marking his first trip there since seizing power in 2021. Myanmar has faced significant turmoil since the coup, with resistance movements and ethnic militias controlling large areas, some near the Chinese border. Min Aung Hlaing will participate in meetings aimed at strengthening bilateral relations and economic cooperation with China, which holds strategic interests in Myanmar, including oil, gas pipelines, and rare earth imports. Despite concerns about Myanmar's unstable situation, Beijing supports the junta’s planned elections and has provided technical aid for a recent census to facilitate them. Critics view China’s support as a barrier to Myanmar’s democratic aspirations, raising frustration among pro-democracy activists. Reuters

Militant attack in India's Kashmir leaves eleven wounded. At least 11 people in Srinagar, the capital of India-administered Kashmir, were wounded on Sunday after militants threw a grenade at Indian security forces in a crowded flea market but missed, hitting civilians instead. The injured were taken to the hospital and are in stable condition. The attack caused panic among shoppers, and armed police and soldiers quickly cordoned off the area. Kashmir’s chief minister condemned the attack and stressed the need to protect innocent civilians, who are very often the victims of regional violence. This incident follows recent bloodshed in Kashmir, including the killing of a top commander of the militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba and other attacks targeting Indian security forces. India often accuses Pakistan of supporting militant groups in the region, though Islamabad denies these claims. South China Morning Post Reuters Associated Press 

U.S.’s Pacific ally Palau holds anticipated election. The U.S. is closely watching Palau, a strategic Pacific ally of Washington and one of Taiwan’s few remaining diplomatic partners, as the archipelagic nation, which has a population of 18,000, prepares to hold its presidential election on Tuesday.  Incumbent President Surangel Whipps Jr. faces his brother-in-law, former president Tommy Remengesau, who is advocating for tax reforms and small business incentives. This year, Palau renewed a Compact of Free Association with the U.S., securing $890 million in economic aid over 20 years for continued American military access to its land, maritime zone, and air space. Whipps has resisted pressure from China to cut ties with Taiwan, and recent cyberattacks and tourism bans from Beijing underscore tensions. There is disagreement within the nation as well, with Whipps’ request for a U.S. Patriot missile shield being recently blocked by Palau’s Senate. Remengesau, who stresses Palau’s independence, has expressed concerns about unnamed "foreign influences" impacting the nation's sovereignty. Reuters The Guardian

Australia drops Lockheed Martin military satellite project. Australia has canceled a multibillion-dollar military satellite project with Lockheed Martin, initially intended to create a geostationary earth orbit (GEO) satellite communications system for the Indo-Pacific. The Department of Defence announced that, due to advancements in space technology and changing security needs, it would now focus on a multi-orbit satellite system to enhance resilience for the Australian Defence Force. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has emphasized a strategic prioritization of defense spending. Although the project’s exact value wasn’t disclosed, Australia plans to invest A$9-12 billion (US$6-8 billion) in space capabilities. South China Morning Post Reuters

AFRICA

Sudanese army chief appoints new acting foreign minister. The leader of Sudan’s army, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, has appointed Ali Youssef Ahmed as the new acting foreign minister, after a cabinet decision was issued on November 3. The former foreign minister, Hussein Awad Ali, has been relieved of his duties. Reuters

Mpox cases in Congo could be stabilizing, but more vaccines are needed to clear virus.Health officials believe that mpox cases in Congo appear to be stabilizing, with weekly cases dropping from 400 in July to 200-300 recently. However, WHO reports that only 40-50% of suspected infections are being tested, and the virus is still spreading in parts of Congo and Uganda. The lack of sufficient vaccines is a major challenge; Congo has received 265,000 doses but needs millions more to curb the outbreak effectively. Health experts warn that limited vaccine access risks further mutations and a larger spread. So far, 50,000 people in Congo have been immunized, and WHO expects 6 million doses for Africa by year-end, but this falls short of what’s needed. Advocates argue for a large-scale vaccination approach over small donations to stop the virus's spread across Africa and beyond. Associated Press 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

FBI warns two online election-related videos make fake claims of ballot fraud.  The FBI has issued a warning about two fake videos circulating online, one claiming to be from the bureau and the other relating to Douglas Emhoff, the husband of Vice President Kamala Harris.   One of the videos alleges that the FBI has arrested groups committing ballot fraud.  In addition, it claims that lists of recently deceased U.S. citizens and Americans over the age of 90 have been involved in voting falsification. The FBI has concluded that both videos and their claims are fake. “These videos are not authentic, are not from the FBI, and the depictions are false,” an FBI spokesperson said.  For the past month, the FBI has warned that foreign actors will probably increase the dissemination of fake or manipulated media that claim voter fraud and corruption to support claims of a rigged election and undermine faith in the integrity of U.S. democracy. The U.S. intelligence community has called out multiple examples of fake videos claiming individuals have voted multiple times with bogus IDs.  CyberScoop

U.S. intelligence agencies conclude Russian influence campaign behind fake election videos.  U.S. intelligence officials report that Russian actors created a fake viral video claiming Haitians have voted illegally in Georgia. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the FBI, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) have confirmed the findings. The agencies also said that the Russian influence operation created another video that alleged an individual linked to the Democratic presidential campaign took a bribe from a U.S. entertainer. U.S. agencies earlier accused Moscow of fabricating a video of a person tearing up ballots in Pennsylvania. They also warned that Americans face a "fire hose of disinformation" before and after the election.  The Record

China to unveil second stealth fighter at Chinese air show.  China's second stealth fighter, the FC-31 Gyrfalcon, is scheduled to be unveiled at a major air show in Zhuhai, Guangdong, marking its possible entry into service.  The China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition – also known as Airshow China – will be held in the southern coastal city from November 12 to 17.  The aircraft, the Chinese equivalent of the U.S. F-35 Lightning II, makes China the second country after the U.S. to have two types of stealth aircraft. The new fighter has yet to be given an official service designation and has been referred to as the J-31 and the J-35.  The new stealth fighter, especially one that could be used as a carrier-based aircraft, would "narrow the gap between [China] and the United States," according to Yue Gang, a retired PLA colonel.  Online images circulating in February showed an apparent full-scale model of the fighter on the deck of China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning.  The aircraft’s manufacturer hinted that the plane would enter service soon following display of a prototype at the World Defence Show in Saudi Arabia in February.  The chief of Pakistan’s air force said in January that his country was on track to acquire the fighter.  South China Morning Post

Details emerge on tech firms possibly involved in Taiwan chip transfer to China’s Huawei.  Following criticism from Senate Intelligence Committee chair Sen. Mark Warner, the Commerce Department defended its record of implementing and managing export controls, noting that over 400 Chinese entities have been added to its entity list, which is constantly updated.  A Commerce spokesperson said, “no Commerce Department in history has been tougher on China.”  The exchange between Warner and the administration followed the discovery that a chip component manufactured by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) found its way into Huawei devices.  The chips were routed to Huawei through Sophgo Technologies, the AI venture of a Chinese cryptocurrency billionaire, Micree Zhan.  Zhan is the co-founder of Bitmain, which designs crypto-mining chips. Critics accuse Sophgo of helping Huawei evade export controls, but an intermediary may also have been involved in the transaction.  Sophgo said in a website statement that it “has never been engaged in any direct or indirect business relationship with Huawei.”   Sophgo added that it provided a detailed report to TSMC to counter allegations that it is involved in the Huawei investigation.  Zhan's companies and Huawei have crossed paths in China's chip sector, and Taiwan prosecutors have accused two Bitmain affiliates of illegally recruiting Taiwanese semiconductor engineers.  Washington Post

Commerce fines U.S. chip firm for unauthorized chip shipments to Chinese semiconductor client.  A U.S.-based company, GlobalFoundries, has been fined $500,000 for its role in making an unauthorized shipment of chips to an affiliate firm of Chinese chipmaker, SMIC, which is on the U.S. export blacklist.  The Commerce Department announced that GlobalFoundries was involved in 74 shipments to SJ Semiconductor without obtaining a license.  GlobalFoundries said that it regretted what it described as an “inadvertent action” and pointed to its strong record of trade compliance.   regret for the inadvertent action and emphasized its world-class trade compliance program.  Matthew Axelrod, the assistant Commerce secretary for Export Enforcement, said U.S. companies need to be hypervigilant with semiconductor shipments to Chinese clients.  GlobalFoundries is slated to receive around $1.5 billion in Commerce Department funding to build a new semiconductor production facility in Malta, New York, and expand existing operations in Burlington, Vermont.  South China Morning Post

Thailand, participant in China space program, plans to join U.S. Artemis space initiative.  Thailand has approved the country’s participation in the U.S.-led Artemis Accords space program, making it the first country to participate in both the U.S. and space exploration programs.  By joining Artemis, Thailand will gain access to advanced technologies and advance its participation in the global space economy.  John Sheldon, a Dubai-based executive with the AzurX space services investment firm, said that Thailand’s involvement in both space initiatives proves they are not mutually exclusive.  Thailand’s space sector focuses on satellite communications and Earth observation.  Through its involvement in the U.S. and Chinese programs, Thailand's priorities may shift to increased scientific exploration.  A Thai instrument that measures solar storms and cosmic rays is scheduled to launch aboard China’s Chang’e-7 mission in 2026.  South China Morning Post

Chinese solar companies expanding where U.S. tariffs do not reach.Chinese-owned solar firms are shifting production from Vietnam to Indonesia, Laos, and other countries to avoid U.S. tariffs targeting Southeast Asian nations. This move allows them to maintain dominance in the U.S. solar market, despite ongoing trade restrictions. American tariffs have hit Vietnam's solar industry hard, leading to factory closures and layoffs. In response, new Chinese-owned factories are opening in Indonesia and Laos, with large capacities aimed at U.S. exports. Additionally, some Chinese companies are establishing solar production facilities within the U.S. to benefit from American incentives, with planned capacity set to meet about half of U.S. market demand. Reuters

China’s space station crew touches down on Earth after half a year in space. A trio of Chinese astronauts landed on Earth on Monday after a six-month mission on China’s Tiangong space station. Their capsule landed in an isolated region in Inner Mongolia, where they emerged at 1:24 a.m. The Tiangong station, which was completed two years ago, is central to China’s ambitious space program. Beijing aims to place a human on the moon by 2030. The returning crew welcomed a new three-person team to the space station last week, who will conduct experiments, spacewalks, and install debris protection. China’s space agency is exploring international collaborations for future Tiangong missions, despite being barred from the International Space Station due to U.S. security concerns. Associated Press Space.com BBC Euronews 

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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