Report for Monday, November 11, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Monday, November 11, 2024

Qatar quits mediating Gaza ceasefire talks

Kremlin denies Trump spoke with Putin

Trump taps Elise Stefanik as U.S. ambassador to UN

U.S., British forces launch air strikes on Yemen’s Sanaa

China rejects Philippine’s new maritime law, draws out plan for South China Sea claims

North Korea jams GPS, impacting flights and vessels in South

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

How Trump 2.0 May Deal with Global FlashpointsThe Cipher Brief

Advice for Trump 2.0: Cipher Brief Experts Weigh In  The Cipher Brief

Avoiding Strategic Surprise will be key in the Next Administration  The Cipher Brief

How to Think In — and About — a Post-Analytic World  The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Qatar quits mediating Gaza ceasefire talks.  Qatari officials have told Israel and Hamas it’s out as a mediator until they show "willingness and seriousness" to resume talks aimed at achieving a ceasefire and exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners.  The Qatari foreign ministry also said press reports saying the U.S. had asked Qatar to expel the Hamas political office in Doha were wrong.  Qatar has hosted Hamas political leaders since 2012, and the arrangement has proved useful in communicating with the militant group about a possible ceasefire and hostage release deal. Qatar is considered a valuable ally of the U.S. in the Mideast. It hosts the Al Udeid Air Base, in the desert southwest of Doha, the largest US military installation in the Middle East. It helped the U.S. negotiate a prisoner exchange with Iran last year.  CNN Reuters BBC Times of Israel  

Israel attacks Hezbollah stronghold near Damascus. An Israeli strike on an apartment building in the Hezbollah stronghold south of Damascus killed seven civilians, including  women and children, and injured 20 others Sunday, the Syrian defense ministry said. The strike targeted Sayeda Zainab, the site of a major Shi'ite shrine, which has been hit by several previous strikes. Reuters 

Israeli strike in northern Gaza kills 40.  At least 40 Palestinians were killed by Israeli strikes across Gaza on Sunday, including at least 24 people when an apartment building in Jabalia was hit at dawn, Palestinian health officials and a human rights group said. The Israeli military said it struck a site in Jabalia where "terrorists were operating." An Israeli airstrike on a house in the Sabra neighborhood in Gaza City on Sunday killed an official and six relatives, medical officials and relatives said. The Palestinian Red Crescent Society said its teams, in collaboration with the International Committee of the Red Cross, evacuated 20 patients from Al-Awda Hospital in Jabalia on Sunday to another facility in Gaza City.  The three hospitals in and around Jabalia have been surrounded for several weeks. Hospital officials have refused army orders to evacuate and leave patients unattended.  Hamas said it killed 15 Israeli soldiers in Beit Lahiya, north of Jabalia, on Sunday.  Reuters

UN: 70% of Gaza deaths are women and children.  The UN's Human Rights Office has issued an analysis showing that close to 70% of  8,119 verified victims of the war in Gaza from November 2023 to April 2024 were women and children. The UN office blamed mostly Israeli bombing in densely populated areas, but said some deaths might have been caused by Palestinian militants’ bombs. UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk said "this unprecedented level of killing, and injury of civilians is a direct consequence of the failure to comply with fundamental principles of international humanitarian law." OHCHR said a “high numbers of babies and young children, women, older persons, and families [were] killed together in residential buildings.”  CNN BBC Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle France 24

Netanyahu acknowledges he authorized deadly pager attacks on Hezbollah.  The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that he approved the September attack against Hezbollah that used pager detonations, which killed 39 people and injured over 3,400. Thousands of pagers exploded simultaneously in Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut, causing severe injuries among those nearby. A follow-up attack using weaponized walkie-talkies added to the casualties. During a cabinet meeting, Netanyahu claimed responsibility for the operation, and told ministers that he gave the order despite opposition from some political figures and defense officials. Hezbollah fighters had been using pagers to avoid Israeli tracking, and Israel targeted these devices to disrupt their communication. Following this, Israel intensified its offensive, including an airstrike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and launched incursions into southern Lebanon. Reuters Times of Israel Euronews CNN  

Germany to deploy Israel’s Arrow-3 missile defense system next year.  The German Federal Ministry of Defense is preparing to deploy Israel's Arrow-3 missile interception system on German soil in 2025, Israel's Defense Ministry said Sunday.  The Arrow system was developed in a cooperative project between Israel and the U.S. to counter long-range ballistic missile threats. The prime contractor is Israel Aerospace Industries. Boeing is involved in production of the Arrow system. Israel agreed to sell the Arrow-3 system to Germany in a $3.5 billion deal last year.  Arrow-2 intercepts long range ballistic missiles and Arrow-3 specializes in knocking down missiles before they re-enter the Earth's atmosphere. The system helped Israel thwart Iran's massive missile and drone attacks in April and October. After those successes, a number of countries have expressed interest in acquiring the technology.   Reuters Defense Industry Europe 

Netherlands bans demonstrations after soccer violence. Amsterdam police detained dozens of people Sunday for a demonstration in central Amsterdam that had been banned after violence targeting fans of an Israeli soccer club. Amsterdam Mayor Femke Halsema banned all demonstrations over the weekend after Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters were attacked Thursday and Friday when they were in Amsterdam to watch the Israeli team play Dutch team Ajax.  Late Sunday afternoon, the municipality, together with Amsterdam police and public prosecutor’s office, extended the ban until Thursday morning.  Israel’s ambassador to the Netherlands said that 2,000 Israelis were flown home on special flights from Amsterdam over the past few days.  Maccabi fans tore a Palestinian flag off a building in Amsterdam, chanted anti-Arab slogans and got into fights. Amsterdam Police said on X that they detained more than 50 people and removed 340 from the scene. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar rushed to the Netherlands on Friday to offer Israel’s help in the police investigation. He met on Saturday with Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof and said that the attacks and demands to show passports “were reminiscent of dark periods in history.”   Reuters Associated Press Reuters France 24 South China Morning Post 

Paris police to deploy 4,000 officers for France-Israel soccer match.  Paris police said Sunday that 4,000 officers and 1,600 stadium staff will be deployed for a France-Israel soccer match to protect the public a week after violence against Israeli fans in Amsterdam. France and Israel are playing in a UEFA Nations League match on Thursday that French President Emmanuel Macron will attend, the Elysee presidential palace said. Nuñez said that 2,500 police officers would be deployed around the Stade de France stadium, north of the French capital, in addition to 1,500 others in Paris and on public transportation.  Associated Press 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Kremlin denies Trump spoke with Putin. The Kremlin is denying a Washington Post report on Sunday that President-elect Donald Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday. On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that a phone call did not take place between the two leaders. "This is completely untrue. This is pure fiction, it's just false information," Peskov told reporters. "There was no conversation." Peskov added there were "no concrete plans" for Putin to speak with Trump. According to the Washington Post account, citing unnamed sources, Trump advised Putin not to escalate the war in Ukraine and highlighted the U.S. military's presence in Europe. He also expressed an interest in further discussions to resolve the war and reportedly touched on the possibility of Russia retaining some captured territory. Sources indicated that the Trump team is conducting these calls without State Department involvement due to concerns about previous leaks, relying on direct communication to engage with global leaders. Ukrainian officials have been informed of the Putin call and did not object to the conversation taking place, said two people familiar with the matter. Washington Post Axios Deutsche Welle The Guardian Reuters

Elon Musk joined Trump's call with Zelensky. Elon Musk joined President-elect Donald Trump’s call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky following Trump’s election victory, underscoring Musk's expanding influence in Trump’s circle. Zelensky expressed gratitude for Starlink's role in bolstering Ukraine's frontline communication. While no policies were discussed during the brief call, Musk’s involvement raises questions, given his federal contracts and recent contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Musk reportedly previously restricted Starlink over Crimea, citing nuclear concerns, after private conversations with Russian officials. With Musk’s influence in Trump’s administration, concerns are mounting about potential shifts in U.S. support for Ukraine amid Musk's ties with adversarial leaders. Axios New York Times Washington Post CNN

Biden plans to lobby Trump to stick with Ukraine. President Joe Biden is set to meet with President-elect Donald Trump on Wednesday to emphasize the importance of sustaining U.S. support for Ukraine. Biden plans to discuss the global impact of the war, stressing that a U.S. withdrawal would increase instability. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden would urge continued aid for Ukraine in light of Trump’s criticisms of current funding. Reuters

ANALYSIS–What are Biden’s options for Ukraine? In his final months, Joe Biden has several options to support Ukraine: expediting the transfer of $6 billion in remaining aid, lifting restrictions on long-range missiles, and seizing $5 billion in Russian central bank reserves. Advocates urge immediate action, fearing Trump’s anticipated aid cuts. Biden can also press NATO to sustain support independently. However, Biden's efforts face limits, as any actions, including executive orders, may be reversed by Trump. Advancing Ukraine’s NATO membership remains possible but would require careful coordination among allies. The Guardian Kyiv Independent

U.S. Struggles to Rush Weapons to Ukraine Before Trump Takes Office. The Biden administration is accelerating military aid to Ukraine, including over 500 Patriot and NASAMS interceptor missiles, amid concerns that President-elect Donald Trump may restrict future support. Officials face logistical challenges and fear depleting U.S. stockpiles as they aim to bolster Ukraine’s defenses before the transition. However, high-demand weapons like ATACMS missiles remain limited, and allies are asked to provide these from their reserves to meet Ukraine’s needs. Over $7 billion in drawdown authority is currently unspent, allowing the Pentagon to transfer weapons from U.S. inventories to Ukraine. Additionally, more than $2 billion remains to fund long-term equipment contracts.  Also, the Pentagon is dispatching contractors to assist with F-16 repairs far from the frontlines.  Wall Street Journal

U.S. will send contractors to Ukraine to help fix its weapons. In a late-term policy shift, the Biden administration will send U.S. contractors to Ukraine to repair complex American weapons systems, including F-16s and Patriots, which are crucial for Ukraine’s defense. Previously, U.S. contractors had only supported remotely or offsite in NATO countries, leading to delays in battlefield readiness. Some see this as a necessary but belated move, asking why such direct support wasn’t implemented sooner. With President-elect Donald Trump likely to reduce U.S. involvement, the decision aims to ensure that Ukraine has critical support before potential policy changes disrupt aid or military logistics. Washington Post The War Zone Al Jazeera 

50,000 Russian and North Korean Troops Mass Ahead of Attack, U.S. Says. The U.S. reports that Russia has amassed 50,000 troops, including over 10,000 North Korean soldiers, for a large-scale counteroffensive in the Kursk region. North Korean forces, supplied and trained by Russia, will likely engage in frontline assaults. North Korea’s 11th Corps, known for special operations, is reportedly involved, though analysts question their combat effectiveness. The North Korean troops are expected to act as light infantry and may face heavy casualties against Ukraine’s drone and artillery tactics. New York Times CNN

Waiting for the North Koreans on the battlefields of the Ukraine war. Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region face growing challenges as North Korean troops reportedly join Russian ranks, reinforcing defenses and intensifying pressure on Ukrainian lines. Ukrainian soldiers report sightings of North Koreans in Kursk and Belgorod, potentially freeing Russian forces for new offensives in northeastern Ukraine. “Currently, we are falling into a situation where we will end this war on Russia’s terms, and it may even result in the dissolution of the Ukrainian state,” warned Yuriy Fedorenko, commander of the Achilles battalion in Ukraine’s 92nd Brigade. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky voiced concerns about Western resolve. “Many questions, much rhetoric, and few decisive steps from leaders,” Zelensky said. Ukrainian troops struggle to hold ground against relentless artillery, drone attacks, and Russian advances, with wounded soldiers describing the brutal realities of combat and the toll on morale in this high-stakes battle. Washington Post

It's becoming clearer how Ukraine's first attack on North Korean troops went down. Ukrainian official Andrii Kovalenko detailed the first strike on North Korean troops in Kursk, who were integrated into Russian units and wearing Russian uniforms. He confirmed the attack was an artillery strike after identifying enemy positions via reconnaissance. Kovalenko noted clashes now occur daily around Sudzha. The North Koreans, numbering about 11,000, receive minimal training before deployment, and some are trained in drone operations, presenting future risks to South Korea. Ukrainian intelligence revealed intercepted Russian communications discussing logistical challenges, including language barriers and supervision to prevent desertion among North Korean forces. Business Insider

Russia suffers deadliest day since start of full-scale invasion, Ukraine's military says. Russia suffered its deadliest day since the full-scale invasion began on Sunday, with Ukraine reporting 1,770 Russian casualties, surpassing the previous daily high of 1,740 in May. Russia’s total casualties now reportedly exceed 710,000, encompassing dead, wounded, missing, and captured. October marked a brutal month for Russian forces, with a daily average of 1,500 casualties. Despite these losses, Russian forces have gained ground in Ukraine's east, capturing significant areas, especially near Toretsk and Chasiv Yar. Kyiv Independent

Russia and Ukraine exchange record numbers of drone strikes. Ukraine and Russia launched record drone strikes on each other over the weekend. Russia fired 145 drones on Saturday night, marking its largest single-night attack against Ukraine since the war began. Ukrainian forces shot down 62 drones but reported damage across several regions. Simultaneously, Ukraine carried out its most extensive drone assault on Moscow, with 34 drones targeting the capital early Sunday, forcing flight suspensions at Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports. Shrapnel injured one woman and set two houses ablaze in Moscow’s Ramenskoye district. Kyiv has intensified deep-strike drone attacks on Russian infrastructure as Western allies restrict long-range weapon use. Washington Post CNN New York Times Reuters  The Wall Street Journal

Civilian Terror: Russia Hits Ukrainian Cities With Waves of Drones.Russia has intensified its drone and missile strikes on Ukraine, now targeting civilian areas nearly nightly. In October alone, Ukrainian officials recorded over 2,000 drone attacks, with Kyiv experiencing prolonged air raid alerts, drone debris causing fires across districts, and substantial infrastructure damage. Russian forces are using a mix of Iranian-made Shahed drones and decoy drones to overwhelm air defenses, which experts note are depleting Ukraine’s resources. October saw an uptick in casualties, with at least 14 killed and nearly 100 injured nationwide in one day alone. Russian missiles and drones hit key sites in Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Kyiv, targeting residential areas, hospitals, and power grids. Analysts highlight that Russian drones cost $100,000 each, a low-cost approach to force Ukraine into defending itself with expensive Western systems. Washington Post Kyiv Independent Business Insider New York Times CNN

Trump transition distances itself from Ukraine peace plan outlined by a Republican strategist.  Donald Trump's transition team on Saturday distanced itself from comments by Republican strategist Bryan Lanza, who told the BBC that the Trump administration would focus on establishing peace in Ukraine rather than restoring lost territory, including Crimea. Lanza said that if President Volodymyr Zelensky “comes to the table and says, ‘well we can only have peace if we have Crimea,’ he shows to us that he's not serious. Crimea is gone." A Trump transition spokesperson clarified that Lanza does not speak for Trump. During his campaign, Trump pledged to end the war swiftly but provided no specific plan. Reuters Euronews BBC

Donald Trump Jr. mocks Zelensky, saying his ‘allowance is about to run out.’ Donald Trump Jr. mocked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Instagram, sharing a video suggesting that Ukraine’s U.S. funding might end when his father takes office. The post shows Zelensky appearing concerned with the caption: “POV: You’re 38 days from losing your allowance,” as dollar bills fall before him. This taunt underscores Trump’s skepticism toward financial support for Ukraine amid the war with Russia. The Telegraph Politico EU

ANALYSIS–Why Ukraine Is Ready to Gamble on Trump.Frustrated with the Biden administration’s limited support, Ukraine is cautiously optimistic about working with President-elect Donald Trump. Ukrainian leaders view Trump as a gamble, given his unpredictability but also his desire for a quick resolution to the war. Trump’s approach may differ from Biden’s more restrictive aid, potentially allowing Ukraine more decisive defense options. Key Republicans in Trump’s orbit favor aiding Ukraine, which could counterbalance voices advocating reduced support. Additionally, Trump’s alignment with energy independence could weaken Russia’s economic leverage. Ukraine hopes for stronger U.S. backing while remaining wary of any imposed settlement. Foreign Policy

Zelensky says strength must come with diplomacy to achieve peace. President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday emphasized the need for a balance of strength and diplomacy to end Russia's war on Ukraine and prevent future conflicts. He called for "honest" diplomacy alongside Western support, including long-range weaponry, as essential to achieving a fair peace. Reuters

Ukraine Says Plans Underway for a Zelensky-Trump Meeting. According to Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha on Saturday, preliminary plans are in motion for a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and President-elect Donald Trump, following recent conversations to establish dialogue. He stressed Ukraine’s stance: “We need real peace but not aggressor’s appeasement, which will bring a bigger war.” Bloomberg

Ukrainian Soldiers Say Trump’s Peace Push Could Come With a Huge Cost. Ukrainian soldiers view U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s desire for a quick end to the war as a potential threat, fearing any peace deal now would favor Russia and cement its control over occupied territories. Despite recent U.S. and European aid, Ukrainian forces struggle with troop shortages and a reliance on U.S. military supplies. Proposed terms, such as freezing the current front line and barring Ukraine from NATO, align with Russian President Vladimir Putin's vision, raising concerns among Ukrainians about compromising their sovereignty. Kyiv hopes for victory, while Trump emphasizes swift peace, creating conflicting goals. Wall Street Journal

Trump's Win Could Lead To Push For Peace In Ukraine, But On Whose Terms? Donald Trump’s election victory may prompt new peace talks on Ukraine, but questions remain over the terms. Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed Trump’s peace statements as a chance to advance Moscow's goals, though his demands—including control over Ukrainian territories and a NATO ban—are unchanged. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky calls for increased Western military aid, warning that a peace favoring Russia would threaten Ukraine and Europe. RFE/RL

Russia is open to hearing Trump’s proposals to end the war. Russia has expressed openness to hearing President-elect Donald Trump's proposals for ending the war in Ukraine, with Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov noting communication via "closed channels." However, the Kremlin emphasized that Russia's demands remain unchanged, including Ukraine dropping its NATO ambitions and withdrawing from territories claimed by Russia. Ukrainian officials have signaled readiness to work with the Trump administration. Uncertainty looms over U.S. support for Ukraine under Trump, who has criticized aid to Kyiv and vowed to end the war quickly. Associated Press Reuters

Ukraine commander says challenges increase in war with Russia. Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine's top military commander, said Saturday that Ukrainian forces face mounting challenges from Russian offensives, especially near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove in the Donetsk region. After discussions with U.S. General Christopher Cavoli, Syrskyi highlighted Russia's numerical advantage and reported escalating combat in these areas. Reuters

Trump Should Not Let Putin Claim Victory in Ukraine, Says NATO Official. NATO’s Admiral Rob Bauer cautioned that any peace deal in Ukraine favoring Russia could harm U.S. interests, warning that allowing Russia to claim victory would embolden other authoritarian states. He noted that North Korea’s involvement strengthened Vladimir Putin’s position, potentially inspiring similar actions globally, while China's inaction raised additional concerns. As Trump’s stance on Ukraine remains uncertain, European leaders discussed strengthening their defense capabilities, fearing Trump’s administration may reduce U.S. military support. Gaps remain in European ammunition and weaponry production. New York Times

Starmer, Macron to meet on Ukraine following Trump win. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron will meet in Paris on Monday, Armistice Day, to strategize on maintaining support for Ukraine amid concerns over President-elect Donald Trump’s intentions to reduce U.S. aid. They aim to persuade President Joe Biden to permit Ukraine to use UK-French Storm Shadow missiles deep into Russian territory, a decision Biden has hesitated on due to escalation fears. This move would secure a stronger Ukrainian defense position before Trump assumes office in January. The talks also aim to solidify European Union-UK defense cooperation and discuss the broader global impacts of Trump’s administration. The Telegraph

Relations between Ukraine and UK are worse under Labour, say Kyiv officials. Since Keir Starmer took office, Ukraine’s ties with the UK have strained due to stalled long-range missile supplies, particularly the Storm Shadow system, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sees as vital for countering Russian advances. Kyiv officials express frustration over Starmer’s hesitancy, contrasting it with the leadership of past UK prime ministers. Starmer reiterated the UK’s “unwavering” support at a recent summit but resisted commitments on lifting missile restrictions. The appointment of Jonathan Powell as Starmer’s national security adviser raises l concerns in Kyiv about possible pressure to negotiate with Russia. The Guardian The Guardian

UK defense chief calls for more spending on military. In an interview with BBC, UK defense chief Sir Tony Radakin called for increased military funding and cited Russia’s heavy October losses in Ukraine. He noted that Russian forces faced their highest casualty rate since the invasion began, averaging 1,500 casualties daily, with an estimated 700,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded to date. Radakin highlighted the immense cost Russians are paying for "tiny increments of land," with Russia now dedicating over 40% of its public spending to defense. While allies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump suggest Ukraine may need to cede territory for peace, Radakin affirmed Western commitment to Ukraine’s defense. BBC

Don't prejudge Trump over Ukraine, France says. At the Paris Peace Forum on Monday, France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot urged against prejudging the future U.S. administration’s stance on Ukraine, emphasizing unity among Western allies. Barrot stressed that Ukraine should set its negotiation terms while allies provide essential support. President-elect Donald Trump recently advised Russian President Vladimir Putin against escalating the war, though the Kremlin denied this call. Finland’s Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen underscored Russia’s existential threat beyond Ukraine, advocating for deeper analysis. Reuters

Poland’s Tusk to meet EU, UK, NATO leaders on Ukraine after Trump win. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is organizing meetings with European Union, U.K., and NATO leaders to address Ukraine's situation following Donald Trump’s reelection in the U.S., which Tusk calls a “serious challenge for everyone.” He emphasized concerns over potential U.S.-Russia agreements on Ukraine that exclude Kyiv. Planned discussions in Warsaw include French President Emmanuel Macron and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, with further talks expected in Stockholm with Nordic and Baltic leaders. Meanwhile, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell reaffirmed Europe’s commitment to Ukraine during a visit to Kyiv, underscoring the EU’s $125 billion support since Russia’s 2022 invasion. Politico EU The Times

EU moves to reassure Ukraine of 'unwavering support' after Trump win. European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell came to Kyiv on Saturday to reassure Ukraine of Europe’s "unwavering support" following Donald Trump’s election win, which has raised doubts about further U.S. aid to Ukraine. Borrell emphasized the EU’s commitment, noting that it has provided €122 billion in military and financial aid and trained 60,000 Ukrainian soldiers, aiming to reach 75,000 by winter’s end. He urged faster aid delivery and fewer restrictions on long-range strikes. Reuters

Czech President Says Donald Trump's Deal With Putin May Harm Ukraine and Allies. Czech President Petr Pavel, a former NATO leader, warned that President-elect Donald Trump’s approach to ending the Russia-Ukraine war might harm Ukraine and weaken NATO’s eastern defenses. Trump’s advisers suggest a deal that could freeze the conflict, leave Russia with control over parts of Ukraine, and delay Kyiv's NATO membership by 20 years. This would require European forces, not U.S. troops, to enforce peace. Trump’s claim to resolve the war "in one day" has faced skepticism, with NATO experts fearing a Trump-Putin deal could severely disadvantage Ukraine and shift security responsibilities to European allies. Newsweek

Europe urges Trump to support Ukraine but braces for possible cuts in U.S. aid. European leaders, concerned about President-elect Donald Trump’s potential cuts to U.S. aid for Ukraine, discussed ways to close funding gaps. While European Union nations have collectively provided $133 billion, much of it non-military, they struggle with depleted defense stocks and weak industry capacity compared to the U.S., which has provided $106 billion, including $70 billion in military aid. Leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized that a Russian victory would embolden authoritarian regimes, while Hungary’s Viktor Orban backed Trump’s call for swift negotiations. Despite economic constraints and internal political divisions, Europe must devise sustainable support options for Ukraine. Wall Street Journal Los Angeles Times

Hungary’s leader Orbán predicts Trump will end support for Ukraine. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a supporter of Donald Trump, predicted that a Trump administration would end U.S. support for Ukraine, claiming, “The Americans are going to pull out of this war.” Speaking before a European Union summit in Budapest, Orbán suggested Ukraine’s defeat was inevitable and argued Europe alone could not fund the war. He emphasized that Trump’s election created a “new situation” for Europe. Associated Press

Russian artillery production to outmatch all of EU by 30% next year, Ukrainian intelligence says. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha warned that Russia is on track to outproduce the European Union in artillery shells by 30% in 2025. He urged international measures to curb Russia's industrial expansion, especially its "shadow fleet" bypassing sanctions to sustain its energy trade. Despite EU and U.S. efforts to support Ukraine's ammunition needs, including a Czech-led initiative for 800,000 shells and $544 million to boost EU production, Ukraine’s reliance on NATO-standard 155 mm shells persists. Although Ukraine has started limited domestic production, dependency on Western supplies remains critical. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine produced over 100 missiles in 2024. In 2024, Ukraine’s defense industry produced over 100 missiles, including drones, artillery, and long-range ballistic missiles, reflecting major advancements in self-reliant military capability. President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted the development of “strategic industries” and partnerships with nations like Denmark and France to boost domestic weapon production. Notably, Ukraine modernized its Neptune missile for ground targets, equipped with a range of 400 kilometers, and successfully tested its first ballistic missile in August. Ukraine has increasingly targeted Russian sites, such as oil terminals and airfields, using both new and adapted weaponry as private enterprises join state-led defense initiatives. Militarnyi

Russian attacks kill five in southern Ukraine, regional governors say. Russian airstrikes overnight early Monday killed at least five people and injured 19, including five children, in southern Ukraine, according to regional governors. Mykolaiv suffered four fatalities and Zaporizhzhia one, with a residential building destroyed. Air raid alerts persisted across eastern Ukraine throughout the night. Reuters

Blasts heard in Kyiv, power cut after Ukraine's air force warns of Russian missile attack. Blasts were reported in Kyiv early Monday, and parts of the city lost power following Russian missile attacks, as Ukraine's air force issued nationwide alerts. The attacks reportedly involved cruise missiles launched from Russian Tu-95MS bombers. Witnesses described sounds of air defense systems in action, and emergency blackouts were reported as a response to the assault. Reuters

Russian Drone Strikes the Home of NATO State Ambassador in Ukraine. According to Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, a Russian drone struck the Kyiv residence of Estonian Ambassador Annely Kolk early Thursday. Kolk and her husband, sheltering during the eight-hour attack, were unharmed. The strike damaged the building’s exterior but caused no casualties. Estonia’s Prime Minister Kristen Michal urged increased air defense for Ukraine. Newsweek

Russian drone attack on Ukraine's Odesa kills one, injures 13, governor says. A Russian drone strike on Odesa killed one person and injured 13, including two boys. The overnight attack on Saturday damaged residential buildings, cars, and commercial structures and ignited a large fire. Ukrainian forces shot down 32 of the 51 drones launched, while 18 were thwarted electronically. This marked the second consecutive night of drone assaults on Odesa, part of Russia’s intensified air campaign as the war approaches its 1,000th day. Reuters

Ukrainian drones hit Russian weapons factory, Kyiv source says. Ukrainian drones struck the Aleksinsky chemical plant in Russia's Tula region, a munitions factory producing gunpowder and weapons, in an overnight attack on Saturday, according to a Ukrainian security source. The attack is part of Ukraine's strategy to target Russian military-support facilities. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported intercepting 50 Ukrainian drones across seven regions. As the war nears its 1,000-day mark, Ukraine hopes such strikes will disrupt Russian logistics and counter its eastern advances, where fighting remains intense. Reuters

Russia returns the bodies of 563 Ukrainian soldiers. Ukraine announced on Friday the return of 563 soldiers' bodies from Russian authorities, primarily from combat in the eastern Donetsk region. The repatriation includes 320 bodies from Donetsk and 154 from Russian morgues, marking one of the largest such exchanges since the war began. Punch

2 Russian soldiers who massacred a Ukrainian family of 9 sentenced to life in prison. Two Russian soldiers, Anton Sopov and Stanislav Rau, received life sentences for murdering nine members of the Kapkanets family in occupied Volnovakha, Ukraine. The massacre, involving guns with silencers, took place in October 2023 and drew intense condemnation. Russian state media cited motives related to political or ideological hatred, while Ukrainian officials alleged the family refused to vacate their home for Russian troops. This rare prosecution highlights Russia’s acknowledgment of atrocities committed by its forces amid ongoing denials of other documented war crimes against civilians in Ukraine. CBS News New York Times

Putin the Brutal: Russia Is Executing Ukrainian Prisoners of War. Russian forces have allegedly executed over 109 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) since the invasion began, with recent reports documenting intensifying war crimes. Ukrainian Prosecutor General Yuri Bilousov reports that executions have increased. Additionally, Russian commanders reportedly treat their troops as expendable, using low-income soldiers as “cannon fodder” to exhaust Ukrainian defenses. Russian disregard for soldier welfare presents a grim reality Ukraine and its Western allies must counter as they strategize against Russia’s attritional tactics. The National Interest

Russian Man Jailed 13 Years for Donating $54 to Ukrainian Army. A Russian court sentenced Alexander Kraychik to 13 years for “high treason” after he donated $54 to Ukraine’s military through a Germany-based organization. Arrested in 2023, Kraychik was charged with aiding activities against Russian security. His case follows similar harsh sentences, like that of U.S.-Russian citizen Ksenia Karelina, who received 12 years for a $50 donation to a pro-Ukraine charity. Russian authorities have increasingly prosecuted individuals for supporting Ukraine since the invasion. Moscow Times

Inside Ukraine’s Quest to Keep the Lights On as Winter Descends. Under pressure from Russian attacks, Ukraine’s Kurakhove power station was dismantled in a massive effort to repurpose its parts for damaged facilities across the country. Led by DTEK’s CEO Maxim Timchenko, workers salvaged equipment for immediate use as attacks left Ukraine’s power generation critically impaired. Despite creative adaptations to integrate diverse parts and coal imports from Europe, concerns remain that winter demands could exceed supply. Timchenko stressed the need for air defense, while DTEK’s resilience, including plans for a wind farm, aims to stabilize Ukraine’s energy amid threats and possible blackouts. Wall Street Journal

Ukraine keeps finding Western parts in Russia's weapons, this time in the wreckage of its new heavy Hunter drone. Ukraine’s military reported discovering Western-made components in the wreckage of a downed Russian S-70 Okhotnik-B "Hunter" drone in eastern Ukraine, marking the latest finding of Western parts in Russian weapons despite international sanctions. Analysis revealed microelectronics from U.S. firms, including Analog Devices and Texas Instruments, and European companies Infineon and STMicroelectronics. The S-70, one of Russia’s limited prototypes, is designed for stealth missions. Business Insider

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Nov. 8-10. Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale drone strike on the night of Saturday-Sunday, targeting and igniting Russian ammunition warehouses in Bryansk Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have downed a total of 84 Ukrainian drones in one of the largest strikes against Moscow Oblast since February 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin anticipates U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will prioritize Kremlin interests without demanding Russian concessions. Putin’s “new world order” proposal emphasizes international equality but contradicts Russia’s expansionist actions and alliances with anti-Western states. Putin highlighted Russia’s reliance on migrant labor and challenges with migrant integration. Putin reiterated false claims about Ukraine violating neutrality to justify Russia's 2014 invasion. Putin downplayed Russia’s ties with North Korea. The Kremlin is strengthening ties with Venezuela to bolster influence in the Western hemisphere. Ukraine’s General Staff reported 323 instances of Russian forces using banned chemical agents in October 2024. Russian forces suffered 80,000 casualties and lost almost 200 tanks and over 650 armored vehicles in gaining around 1,500 square kilometers during September and October 2024. Ukraine struck Russia’s Aleksin Chemical Plant with drones, causing a fire and halting operations. The U.S. will deploy defense contractors to rear areas in Ukraine to repair advanced U.S. weaponry, like F-16s and Patriot systems.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Novoivanovka, Kursk Oblast. Russian troops advanced south of Chasiv Yar, north of Vuhledar, and near Kreminna, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. Ukrainian forces regained positions near Siversk and Pokrovsk. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War Saturday-Insitute for the Study of War Friday-Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: The Trump victory fund. Timothy Ash argues that Europe must adapt to Donald Trump’s presidency, which could mean limited U.S. support for Ukraine. Trump’s vague peace plan and skepticism about aid place Europe in a challenging position. Ash suggests Europe should consider a “Trump Ukraine Victory Fund,” possibly using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction, thus reducing the direct cost to European taxpayers. This approach could also sustain U.S. political support by earmarking funds for American defense manufacturing, making Russia, not European taxpayers, bear the financial burden. Center for European Policy Analysis

Opinion: Trump Doesn’t Have to Be Bad News For Ukraine. Marc Champion argues that Donald Trump could avoid disastrous concessions to Russia if he establishes a strategic approach to Ukraine. Trump’s idea of a rapid “peace-in-a-day” is unrealistic, and a hasty ceasefire would likely leave Ukraine vulnerable. Instead, Champion suggests Trump send envoys to understand Kyiv’s resistance to a quick deal and prioritize genuine security guarantees for Ukraine. Champion warns that abandoning Ukraine risks empowering Russia, destabilizing Europe, and emboldening U.S. adversaries. To prevent this, Trump should capitalize on Biden’s support package and align with European allies to create a robust defense for Ukraine. Bloomberg

Opinion: Western inaction on Ukraine’s security guarantees opens door to global nuclear proliferation. Julian McBride argues that Western hesitancy on Ukraine's security guarantees risks global nuclear proliferation. He highlights Ukraine's push for NATO membership or an alternative security pact due to Russia’s repeated violations of the Budapest Memorandum. Without reliable Western support, Ukraine may consider resuming its nuclear program, which could prompt other non-nuclear states to do the same. McBride warns that Russia’s nuclear blackmail emboldens aggression, potentially prompting nations like South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan to consider nuclear defenses amid growing regional threats. Kyiv Independent

Opinion: I’ve Watched America and Ukraine Switch Places. Nataliya Gumenyuk reflects on witnessing America’s shift from democratic stability to political polarization, which she compares to Ukraine’s past struggles with oligarch influence. Covering five U.S. elections, Gumenyuk notes how America, once a model of democratic debate, now faces divisive politics and misinformation akin to what Ukraine endured. While Donald Trump’s win poses challenges for U.S.-Ukraine relations, Gumenyuk highlights Americans’ commitment to democracy at local levels. Drawing from Ukraine’s resolve under threat, she believes Americans can defend their democracy through civic engagement despite inward political turns. The Atlantic

AMERICAS

Trump taps Elise Stefanik as U.S. ambassador to UN.   President-elect Donald Trump has offered Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik of Long Island the post of U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, CNN reported Sunday. Stefanik, the House Republican Conference chair since 2021, has been a reliable supporter of Trump on Capitol Hill since 2020. She has acted as one of his surrogates during the 2024 campaign. She is a member of the Armed Services Committee and the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.  Most recently, she’s known for her campaign to force out college leaders who did not energetically denounce antisemitism. CNN Reuters 

Trump names Tom Homan, former director of immigration enforcement, as ‘border czar.’  Donald Trump on Sunday announced the appointment of Tom Homan as “border czar” to lead mass deportation efforts, focusing on removing undocumented immigrants from U.S. soil. Homan, previously the acting director of ICE under Trump, will oversee enforcement along the southern and northern borders, as well as maritime and aviation security. Known for intensifying deportation efforts during Trump’s first term, Homan will now implement Trump’s campaign promise to carry out “the largest deportation program in American history,” targeting 20 million undocumented immigrants. In a recent interview, Homan promised a “well-targeted, planned operation,” and clarified that ICE would carry out deportations in a “humane manner,” without rounding up and detaining immigrants in the country illegally. Trump’s team is preparing an executive order directing the Department of Homeland Security and other agencies to expedite deportations, with plans under consideration to declare a national emergency to access military resources for detention and removal. Wall Street Journal Associated Press Al Jazeera 

ANALYSIS–Deals and Deterrence: Trump’s Foreign Policy in a Dangerous World. Donald Trump’s second term is expected to emphasize "peace through strength," aiming to deter adversaries while pressuring allies to share more responsibility. His advisors advocate showcasing U.S. economic and military power to counter threats from a tightening Russia-Iran-North Korea-China alignment. Trump may engage in direct diplomacy with leaders like Vladimir Putin to negotiate on Ukraine while resuming a hard stance on Iran with renewed sanctions, especially after Tehran’s assassination plot against him. In contrast to Joe Biden’s approach, Trump is less reliant on alliances, prioritizing transactional relationships. This strategy could lead to strained ties with Europe, which might explore cooperation with China. Aiming to end the war in Ukraine, Trump could propose freezing the frontlines, tacitly accepting Russian control of parts of Ukraine. In the Middle East, Trump seeks to expand the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia while offering Israel flexibility regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Overall, Trump’s approach will likely involve a blend of diplomacy, economic pressure, and a credible threat of military force. Wall Street Journal

The US needs ammunition for its next big war — a lot of it.  The U.S. has provided Ukraine with over $60 billion in security aid since 2022, including tens of thousands of rockets, millions of artillery shells, and 155mm rounds that have strained stockpiles. Aid to Israel since October 2023 has exceeded $18 billion, including thousands of anti-tank missiles and air-dropped bombs. The Navy expended nearly $2 billion in munitions in the Middle East, countering Houthi attacks and defending Israel. Analysts stress the need to boost U.S. production of key munitions like air-defense interceptors and long-range missiles, essential for a conflict with China. These needs highlight a pressing requirement to expand production capacity. Business Insider

Will Trump 2.0 result in a purge at the Pentagon?  President-elect Donald Trump is expected to prioritize loyalty within the U.S. military and may remove officers and civil servants he perceives as disloyal, according to current and former officials. During his campaign, Trump vowed to purge the military of so-called "woke" generals and has suggested he would fire those focused on policies related to racial and social justice. This has raised concerns that he might target senior leaders like General C.Q. Brown, the current chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who has been an advocate for diversity in the military. Trump's vice president-elect, J.D. Vance, has asserted the need to replace officials who do not fully support the president's agenda. Military experts worry that Trump's proposals, such as deploying the military for mass deportations or to address domestic unrest, could violate laws and erode public trust in the armed forces. There are also fears that Trump might use executive orders to replace career civil servants with loyalists, potentially undermining the expertise within the Department of Defense. Some officials express concern that these actions could engender significant chaos and long-term damage to the Pentagon's effectiveness. However, others believe Trump won’t initiate high-level firings, as doing so would be unnecessary and stir up political backlash; military officers will remain focused on their duties, and the chain of command will continue to function despite potential leadership changes. Reuters 

U.S. Army’s prep course to raise low scores in fix for lack of recruits is proving successful.  The Future Soldier Prep Course, a program launched two years ago as a way to swell the U.S. Army’s lamentable recruiting numbers, has been instrumental in helping those who don't initially meet the Army’s physical and academic standards. The course offers weeks of fitness training and academic support to improve the scores of future soldiers, and now accounts for 24% of new recruits. The program has shown success, with a slightly higher graduation rate for those who complete it. Army Secretary Christine Wormuth visited Fort Jackson, South Carolina to observe the program and consider adjustments, such as increasing support for recruits struggling with English or physical conditioning. Wormuth affirmed the Army’s commitment to the program, seeing it as essential in a competitive job market where many young people choose college or other career paths. Associated Press 

Trump has said that Kim Jong Un ‘misses’ him, but this time he’s facing a very different adversary.  Donald Trump’s singular approach to North Korea, shifting from threats of “fire and fury” to unprecedented summits with leader Kim Jong Un, may face new challenges when he returns to office. Since Trump’s initial diplomacy, North Korea has strengthened ties with Russia, supplied Moscow with military aid for the Ukraine war, and tested missiles capable of reaching the mainland U.S. Kim has also hardened his stance on the U.S. and South Korea, whom he now sees as “permanent enemies.” Trump’s past efforts to curb Pyongyang’s nuclear program ended without success, and experts suggest that Kim may not be willing to negotiate denuclearization if talks resume. While Trump’s return could encourage Kim, who seeks recognition by the White House as a de facto nuclear power, North Korea is now deeply aligned with Russia and China, complicating the dynamics of any Washington-Pyongyang engagement. Experts worry that Trump could shift U.S. demands on denuclearization in order to reach a deal, potentially allowing North Korea to continue advancing its nuclear program; one analyst referred to that possibility as a “worst scenario.” Additionally, Trump would be dealing with a different geopolitical landscape, including a conservative South Korean government firmly aligned with U.S. defense strategies. Despite Trump’s past admiration for Putin and a skeptical view of some U.S. alliances, he may face limits in reshaping these relationships given the threat from North Korea, Russia, and China. According to one political expert, it is unlikely that the isolated regime “will make any significant concessions on the ‘treasured sword’ of its nuclear program.”  CNN

Canada readying for 'worst-case scenario' of migrants fleeing Trump. Canadian police and migrant aid groups are preparing for a possible surge of asylum-seekers fleeing the U.S. under President-elect Donald Trump's immigration policies, as Ottawa faces record-high refugee claims and aims to reduce immigration. Anticipating increased border crossings, Canadian authorities have readied resources to manage potentially large numbers entering irregularly, especially since the U.S.-Canada agreement now restricts asylum claims at informal crossings. Advocates warn that restrictive pathways encourage dangerous crossings, which Canada’s tightened borders have made more costly due to smuggling. Ottawa saw nearly 20,000 refugee claims in July, and at the moment has a pending caseload of over 250,000 claims. Aid centers are already strained, but Toronto’s FCJ Refugee Centre expects the demand to rise with Trump’s policies. Immigration Minister Marc Miller affirmed Canada has a plan for managing an influx but provided no specifics, emphasizing that policy decisions will prioritize Canada's interests. Reuters 

Armed assailants open fire on bar in Mexico's Queretaro state, kill 10.Ten people were killed in a bar shooting in Queretaro, Mexico on Saturday when four gunmen burst in and opened fire on customers who were dining. The attackers killed seven men and three women and injured thirteen others. Authorities have one suspect in custody and are investigating a vehicle linked to the incident. Footage from the bar’s security cameras, released online, shows four attackers entering the establishment and shooting at the defenseless people, who were eating at tables. Although Queretaro is generally safer than other parts of Mexico, this attack underscores the nation’s ongoing security crisis due to organized crime and cartel violence. Since Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum took office on Oct. 1, there have been over 2,700 homicides in the country. Sheinbaum has pledged to tackle violent crime with a security plan that includes support for at-risk youth, improved intelligence sharing, and strengthening of the National Guard. Queretaro’s governor assured residents that those responsible for the murders will be punished. Associated Press Reuters CBS

Gunmen assassinate Mexican navy rear admiral, one of the highest-ranking officers slain in years.  A Mexican navy rear admiral was shot and killed on Friday in Manzanillo, a Pacific port city notorious for drug cartel activity. The officer, who the media identified as Fernando Guerrero Alcántar, was reportedly attacked by men on a motorcycle while he was driving his personal vehicle, leaving it unclear whether his identity was known to the assailants. This is the highest-ranking military officer killed in Mexico since 2013, when Vice Adm. Carlos Miguel Salazar was ambushed and murdered by cartel members. Although attacks on high-ranking officers are rare, the Mexican government has increasingly relied on the navy, army, and National Guard to combat drug cartels. Manzanillo is a strategic location for cartels, as it receives shipments of precursor chemicals from Asia used to produce fentanyl. Associated Press El Pais 

Cuba condemns 'public disorder' as protests spring up following hurricane. Cuba has swiftly cracked down on a string of rare protests in the country, as scattered demonstrators rallied against the state’s failure to prevent power outages across the country, which have affected 10 million people. Cuban authorities warned they would not tolerate "public disorder" as recovery efforts continued in western Cuba, where power remained partially out four days after Hurricane Rafael. The country’s top prosecutor reported detentions in Havana, Mayabeque, and Ciego de Avila for “assault, public disorder, and vandalism.” By Sunday, over 85% of Havana had power restored, but harder-hit provinces like Artemisa and Pinar del Rio were still largely without electricity. Rolling blackouts are expected due to Cuba's aging power plants. While uncommon, protests have increased on the island nation amid prolonged blackouts and shortages. Although Cuba’s 2019 constitution permits protests, a law defining this right has stalled, placing protesters in legal uncertainty. International rights groups criticized Cuba’s handling of previous protests, particularly the large-scale anti-government demonstrations in July 2021. Reuters

EUROPE

European countries are spending more on defense, think tank says.European defense spending by NATO members has risen by 50% since 2014, responding to Russia’s actions in Crimea and Ukraine. Despite these gains, critical gaps remain, particularly in funding stability, industrial capacity, and personnel strength. The report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies highlights ongoing reliance on the U.S. for advanced weaponry, with European countries also turning to Brazil, Israel, and South Korea. High demand from Ukraine led to increased production of artillery and air defenses, but regulatory hurdles and resource competition hinder progress. European forces also face shortages in troops. Associated Press

ANALYSIS–Missing in Europe: A Strong Leader for a New Trump Era. Donald Trump’s election victory challenges Europe, straining Franco-German leadership as they face internal political crises. French President Emmanuel Macron, weakened by political setbacks, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose coalition dissolved amid economic conflicts, struggle to unite Europe amid economic stagnation and the Russian war in Ukraine. Trump’s anticipated cutback on U.S. support for Ukraine raises European security concerns, pressuring Germany to increase military spending, which could inflame nationalist sentiments. Both leaders seek a more autonomous Europe, yet populist movements and political deadlock hinder action, risking a leadership void as stability remains vulnerable. New York Times

Boeing 787, operated by China’s Hainan, turns back to Rome after engine blaze.A Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner operated by China’s Hainan Airlines caught fire in its right engine on Sunday, shortly after takeoff from Rome's Fiumicino airport. The incident was likely due to a bird strike, according to Italian officials. The plane, bound for Shenzhen with 249 passengers and 16 crew members, safely returned to the airport after dumping fuel over the sea. The incident did not cause delays to other flights at the airport, but residents of the cities of Ostia and Fiumicino were alarmed after hearing the loud noises from the aircraft. Reuters Corriere della Serra CBS Barron's 

Sweden chooses Embraer cargo plane, Brazil intends to purchase more Saab fighters.

The Swedish government announced over the weekend that it has picked Embraer's C-390 Millennium as its next military cargo aircraft, while Brazil plans to increase its purchase of Saab's Gripen fighter jets from the Nordic country. Brazil had already contracted Saab in 2010 to acquire 36 Gripen jets and now aims to extend this order by 25%. In return, Sweden will replace its aging C-130 fleet with the C-390. Though the number of C-390s Sweden will acquire is yet to be disclosed, the purchase process will begin soon. Sweden is now the sixth European country to choose the C-390, joining other NATO members and allies. The agreement was signed by Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson and Brazilian Defense Minister Jose Mucio during a training exercise in Brazil. Saab and Embraer, who have a joint production line for Gripen jets in Brazil, look forward to further collaboration, while Colombia is also reportedly considering buying Gripens.  Reuters Reuters

Russia-Africa Partnership Forum opens in Sochi, as Moscow promises “total support.” The Kremlin on Saturday opened its first, two-day conference of the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, as the superpower courts African nations with promises of "total support" from President Vladimir Putin. Moscow, seeking allies amid Western isolation following the Ukraine conflict, has increased its influence in Africa, framing itself as a counter to Western "neocolonialism" and advocating for a "multipolar world." Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov delivered Putin’s message, emphasizing Russia’s strengthening ties with Africa, a continent where Moscow has historical connections and recent military, economic, and advisory involvement. Three West African countries—Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso—have in recent years shifted away from France following military coups, aligning more with Moscow and employing Russian mercenaries and advisers, such as the Wagner Group. In 2023, Russia provided over $5 billion in arms to Africa and has significant investments in industries like diamonds and energy across Angola, Nigeria, Ghana, and other countries. The foreign ministers of Mali and Burkina Faso voiced support for Russia's stance, arguing that cooperation with Moscow aligns better with their national goals than past alliances with former colonial powers. However, analysts question Russia's commitment to Africa, suggesting its focus could wane if the Ukraine conflict resolves. South China Morning Post Associated Press Firstpost 

MIDDLE EAST

IAEA chief to visit Iran on Wednesday. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi will visit Tehran starting Wednesday for discussions with senior Iranian officials, according to Iran's Mehr news agency. Grossi’s visit comes at a time of heightened regional tensions and growing concerns over Iran's nuclear program, amid ongoing friction between Iran and Israel. In his last visit to Tehran in May, Grossi suggested measures to improve transparency and build confidence regarding Iran’s nuclear activities, which Iran insists are for peaceful purposes. Ahead of his trip, Grossi mentioned a “timely and substantive exchange” with Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi. Iran reportedly has enough higher-enriched uranium to create four nuclear bombs, if refined further. Bloomberg Reuters Associated Press  

U.S., British forces launch air strikes on Yemen’s Sanaa, other targets.  The U.S. and Britain conducted air strikes on Yemen's capital, Sanaa, as well as the Amran governorate and other areas, according to Houthi-run Al Masirah TV. Houthi media and local residents reported around nine strikes on Sanaa and its surrounding areas. The Pentagon said it targeted advanced weapons storage facilities. The raids come in response to attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi militants on international shipping near Yemen, launched in support of Hamas amid its conflict with Israel. These Houthi attacks have disrupted global trade, prompting U.S. and British retaliatory attacks and forcing ships to reroute away from the Red Sea and Suez Canal, opting instead for the longer route around Africa. Reuters Al Jazeera

Saudi armed forces general chief of staff held talks in Iran. Saudi Arabia’s armed forces chief of staff, Fayyad al-Ruwaili, visited Tehran on Sunday to meet with his Iranian counterpart, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, to discuss defense cooperation. Al-Ruwaili led a high-level Saudi delegation to the Iranian capital, where discussions covered defense diplomacy and cooperation. This visit comes in the wake of the re-election of Donald Trump, who has pledged to advance peace in the Middle East. During Trump’s previous term, he facilitated the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel and some Arab states, though Saudi Arabia has not yet joined. In a separate development, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian informed Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that he could not attend an upcoming OIC summit in Riyadh and would send Iran's first vice president as a representative. The visit builds on the renewed diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, brokered by China in March 2023 after years of regional rivalry. Reuters

Two members of Saudi-led coalition in Yemen killed at training camp in shock attack. A Yemeni defense ministry employee reportedly opened fire and killed two members of the Saudi-led coalition forces and injured another officer in Yemen's Seiyun on Friday, according to a spokesperson from the coalition. The attack occurred at a training camp in Seiyun, Hadhramaut province, which lies about 500 kilometers (310 miles) east of Sanaa. The coalition and Yemeni authorities will investigate the incident to determine the motives and hold the attacker accountable. The soldier has been identified as belonging to the First Military Region, which is based out of Seiyun, but not motive has been provided for the killings. The Saudi-led coalition has been involved in Yemen since 2015, following the Iran-backed Houthis' takeover of Sanaa. Yemen has experienced relative calm over the past two years, with ongoing peace talks between Saudi and Houthi officials. Reuters Associated Press South China Morning Post 

Five PKK members killed in Turkish drone strikes in northern Iraq.Turkish drone strikes in northern Iraq killed five members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), according to Iraqi Kurdistan’s counter-terrorism service. On Saturday, a Turkish strike targeted a vehicle near Dohuk, killing three people, including a senior PKK official. A separate strike on Sunday killed two fighters from the Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS), a militia affiliated with the PKK, in the Sinjar district. Turkey frequently conducts airstrikes against PKK militants in northern Iraq, where it also maintains outposts. The PKK initially launched an insurgency in 1984 with the goal of establishing an independent Kurdish state, but later shifted to seeking greater rights and autonomy for Kurds in southeast Turkey. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

China rejects Philippine’s new maritime law, draws out plan for South China Sea claims.  China on Sunday dismissed new Philippine maritime legislation, asserting that it infringes on Beijing’s sovereignty and rights in the hotly contested South China Sea. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. recently signed laws to define Manila’s maritime claims and designate sea lanes to strengthen sovereignty. China staunchly opposes these laws and has pledged to protect its interests in the disputed region. The latest Chinese Foreign Ministry statement reasserted claims over the Scarborough Shoal, mapping out a baseline of "territorial waters" around the contentious area for sovereignty and fishing rights. China has strengthened its presence in the area with coast guard laws and vessels, often clashing with the Philippines, and accuses Manila of frequent "intrusions" and encouraging "illegal fishing" near the shoal.  Reuters Associated Press South China Morning Post 

North Korea jams GPS, impacting flights and vessels in South. North Korea, still firmly entrenched in electronic and psychological warfare against its neighbor, disrupted GPS signals from border areas for a second consecutive day on Saturday, affecting both flights and vessels in South Korea. According to the South Korean military, the interference was traced to the North’s Korean cities of Kaesong and Haeju. The jamming disrupted dozens of civilian aircraft and several vessels. In response, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff warned Pyongyang to cease such provocations. This GPS disruption, along with the North's use of balloons to send trash and propaganda over the border, reveals vulnerabilities at South Korea's Incheon International Airport, which is located 48 km west of Seoul. Pyongyang’s escalated hostilities include dismantling road and rail links with the South, advancing missile tests, and aligning militarily with Russia. Associated Press The Guardian Deutsche Welle Al Jazeera 

Opinion: Why South Korea should reevaluate its hardline stance against the North.In this text, Gagan Hitkari argues that developments in the geopolitical sphere have necessitated a shift in South Korea’s foreign policy, particularly in regard to its uncompromising stance on North Korea. Multiple factors are exacerbating regional strain, including reports of North Korean troops in Russia, and a mutual agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang to assist each other in case of armed conflict. Fears are heightened over the fact that South Korea’s close alignment with the U.S. and its support for Ukraine position it as a potential target for North Korean and Russian retaliation. Additionally, China's need to manage its relationship with both Koreas and Russia adds complexity, as any U.S.-backed move by South Korea could push Beijing closer to Pyongyang and the Kremlin, impacting Seoul’s security and economic interests. The potential re-election of Donald Trump could also add friction, as his previous approach involved reducing U.S. military presence in the region and pursuing a "grand bargain" with North Korea. Hitkari argues that Seoul faces the risk of diplomatic isolation if it aggressively opposes Pyongyang without balancing engagement and restraint. To avoid escalation, the South should explore cooperative avenues with Pyongyang and seek China's and Russia’s influence to stabilize the region. He also asserts that the U.S. should consider South Korean interests in its regional policies, as direct involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could weaken South Korea-U.S. relations and alienate South Korean public opinion. South China Morning Post 

Japanese prime minister pledges to bolster military, expand ties with U.S.Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Saturday reasserted his pledge to strengthen Japan’s military and deepen its alliance with the U.S. under President-elect Donald Trump. Speaking at an annual troop review, Ishiba cited worsening security challenges from China, Russia, and North Korea, pointing at airspace violations by Chinese and Russian warplanes and North Korean missile tests. Ishiba underscored the fact that Tokyo is facing its most severe security environment, necessitating a balance of diplomacy and defense. Ishiba committed to advancing the military buildup plan under the 2022 security strategy, which includes acquiring long-range missiles, marking a shift from Japan's traditional self-defense policy. He also aims to improve cooperation with U.S. forces. Despite his commitment, Ishiba’s administration may face obstacles in implementing policies after his coalition’s recent parliamentary election loss.  Associated Press 

Taliban officials to take part in U.N. climate conference in Azerbaijan. The Taliban is attending the COP29 U.N. climate conference in Azerbaijan on Monday, marking their first participation in such an event since taking control of Afghanistan in 2021. Afghanistan’s National Environmental Protection Agency announced that a delegation would discuss climate cooperation, access to financial resources, and adaptation and mitigation strategies. Taliban administration officials, who lack official recognition as the legitimate rulers of the country, were invited to the COP29 as observers, meaning they can "potentially” take part in “periphery discussions” and possibly “hold bilateral meetings." Associated Press Reuters VOA The Independent Euronews Deutsche Welle 

At least 26 killed in Pakistan train station bomb blast. A suicide bomber detonated an explosive device at a train station in Quetta, Balochistan, killing at least 26 people, including railway staff and over a dozen soldiers, and injuring around 62 others. The attack occurred as passengers awaited a train to Rawalpindi. Officials said the bomber was disguised as a passenger, making it challenging to prevent the attack. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a separatist group, claimed responsibility, stating it targeted troops at the station. Balochistan, a resource-rich province in Pakistan, has seen frequent violence from separatist and Islamic militant groups. The BLA seeks independence from Pakistan and often targets security forces, civilians, and foreign nationals, particularly Chinese workers involved in the Belt and Road Initiative. This attack follows recent incidents of violence in the region, including a bombing targeting police protecting polio workers and other attacks in August that killed over 50 people. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the attack, pledging to combat terrorism. Afghanistan and Russia also expressed condolences. Associated Press BBC CNN Al Jazeera Reuters The Guardian 

Australian Defence Force in Indonesia for joint exercises. Australian Defence Force (ADF) members arrived in East Java, Indonesia, on Sunday with their warship for the Keris Woomera Exercise, a joint military drill involving 2,000 personnel from Australia and Indonesia. This exercise, the largest joint operation under the Australia-Indonesia Defence Cooperation Agreement, aims to enhance regional cooperation, security, and “prosperity.” The activities will include a joint landing operation, live-fire drills, and a non-combat evacuation for disaster scenarios. The exercise, which began in Darwin, Australia, on Nov. 3, will continue in Indonesia from Nov. 13-16. Recently, Indonesia also held naval exercises with Russia near Surabaya. Reuters The Canberra Times 

AFRICA

2 generals from Sudan’s paramilitary sanctioned by U.N. for roles in war against the military. The U.N. Security Council has imposed sanctions on two Sudanese paramilitary generals, Maj. Gen. Osman Mohamed Hamid Mohamed and Maj. Gen. Abdel Rahman Juma Barkalla, for their involvement in the devastating conflict with Sudan's military, which has involved ethnically motivated violence and atrocities. Since the conflict began last year, over 14,000 people have been killed, and the country is suffering severe humanitarian crises. These sanctions mandate that all countries freeze the generals' assets and enforce travel bans. This conflict has reignited memories of past genocides in Darfur, with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)—rooted in the Janjaweed militias responsible for previous atrocities—targeting non-Arab populations. Human Rights Watch reported that the RSF and allied militias have been carrying out ethnic cleansing in West Darfur, specifically targeting the ethnic Masalit with violence, torture, rape, and destruction. The RSF now controls most of Darfur’s state capitals, with only El Fasher in North Darfur remaining outside their power. Associated Press Al Jazeera 

Australian gold mining company confirms that CEO, two other employees are detained in Mali. Terry Holohan, the CEO of Australian gold miner Resolute Mining Ltd., and two other executives were detained by Mali's military-controlled government on Friday following discussions with local mining and tax authorities in Bamako. This detention comes amid a series of recent arrests targeting employees of other international mining firms, including four employees of Barrick Gold Corp. in October. Since a 2020 coup, international miners in Mali, including Resolute, have faced increased pressure from the military government. Resolute, which is expanding its Syama gold mine, emphasized its compliance with official processes and commitment to employee safety, while seeking a settlement to secure the mine’s future.  Bloomberg Reuters 

U.S. voices grave concerns over ceasefire violations in Congo.The U.S. on Friday expressed deep concern over ceasefire violations in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo by the M23 rebels. The State Department called for M23 to cease hostilities and withdraw from North Kivu's Walikale territory. Additionally, Washington urged Rwanda to withdraw its Defense Force personnel and equipment, including missile systems, from the nation. The M23 group, a Tutsi-led insurgency, has been active since 2022, with Congo and the UN accusing Rwanda of supporting it. Reuters U.S. Department of State 

96 Boko Haram rebels, 17 Chadian soldiers killed in insurgent attack. Boko Haram insurgents attacked a military post in Chad’s Lake Chad region on Saturday, resulting in the deaths of 17 Chadian soldiers and 96 attackers, according to the Chadian army. The Lake Chad area has faced frequent attacks from Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa, as fears of escalating violence, following a period of relative peace, heighten. The Chadian government has intensified efforts to combat these groups, with President Mahamat Deby Itno launching operations to dislodge militants following previous deadly attacks on military bases. Boko Haram, which began its insurgency over a decade ago in Nigeria, seeks to impose Islamic law and has extended its violence to neighboring countries, including Chad. Associated Press 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Commerce Department orders broad halt on TSMC chip deliveries to China.  The Commerce Department has ordered Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) to stop shipping advanced chips to China, effective Monday. The Commerce Department order imposes restrictions on TSMC exports of advanced 7nm chips used to power AI accelerator and graphics processing units (GPU).  TSMC had already ended shipments to China-based chip designer Sophgo after its chip matched one found on a Huawei AI processor.  The latest restrictions apply to many more clients and empowers the U.S. to assess if other companies are diverting chips to Huawei.  TSMC has been in regular discussion with the department on export control issues and confirmed it will comply with domestic and international regulations. The letter to TSMC from the Commerce Department is known as an "is informed" letter, which allows the U.S. to bypass rule-writing procedures and quickly apply new licensing requirements on specific companies.  Reuters South China Morning Post

China advances automation, digital systems initiatives at key port facilities.  China’s leading port services operator, China Merchants Group (CMG), has embarked on an aggressive program of incorporating automation and digital technologies in its port infrastructure and operations.  The port of Shenzhen, one of the world’s busiest container facilities, is the first CMG site to receive network upgrades, including 5G, digital automation, and AI.  Huawei Technologies has integrated 5G infrastructure into northern China’s largest seaport, Tianjin.  The implementation of advanced technologies at Chinese ports is described as starkly different to U.S. counterparts, where automation has been a controversial labor issue and led to a crippling three-day dockworkers strike in October.   Shenzhen port’s transformation features a self-developed digital management system focusing on container, bulk cargo, and customs process operations.  The system reportedly has resulted in 30 percent efficiency improvements along with 80 percent reductions in on-site workers.  China's transport ministry has developed plans for multiple world-class smart ports and smart waterways by 2027.  South China Morning Post

U.S.-Chinese lunar sample exchange negotiations stalled by NASA delays.  Negotiations between the U.S. and China on the exchange of lunar soil samples reportedly have been slowed by NASA’s delay in answering requests from Chinese planetary geologists.  The slow U.S. response reportedly could affect China’s willingness to loan samples resulting from the successful Chang’e-5 lunar mission in 2020.  NASA earlier this year was granted an exemption by Congress to the Wolf Amendment, which limits direct collaboration with Chinese space projects.  NASA director Bill Nelson told Congress that talks with the Chinese on lunar sample exchanges "would not pose national security concerns."  At the end of negotiations, the U.S. and other applicants from Britain, Germany, France, Japan, and Pakistan are expected to receive Chang-e-5 samples.  The negotiations may also affect international applications for Chang'e-6 samples retrieved from the moon this year.  South China Morning Post

New OpenAI model under development lacks performance gains seen in earlier releases. The next release of OpenAI’s leading AI model reportedly will not achieve a leap in improved performance that was attained with the transition from GPT-3 to GPT-4.  Testing of the new model known by the codename Orion registered lower performance measures and reportedly lagged behind earlier models in areas such as coding.  As new training data becomes more scarce, OpenAI researchers are exploring new development approaches, including using “synthetic data” generated by AI models and improving model operations in the post-training phase.  OpenAI has not responded to requests for comment on the reported findings on the Orion model.  TechCrunch

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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