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Monday, May 8, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Texas Mass Shooting Kills 8: Police Kill Suspect. At least 8 people including the gunman are dead after a gunman opened fire at a mall in Allen, Texas on Saturday. According to local officials, at least six other people were taken with gunshot wounds to the hospital.  Police were able to kill the suspected gunman, but a motive is still unknown. Al Jazeera CNN Reuters 

U.S. and European Allies Believe China May Play Role in Finishing Ukraine War.  Ukraine’s allies believe that Kyiv’s expected offensive along with the help of China could bring Russia to the negotiating table with Ukraine by the end of the year. The US has been highly skeptical of any involvement in the conflict from Beijing, but Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently expressed cautious optimism regarding the role that Beijing may be able to play in bringing the war to a close.  This shift would bring the US closer in line with European allies, who have reportedly expressed more openness to all options to facilitate negotiations.  Wall Street Journal

U.S. Cities Brace for Flood of Migrants Ahead of Title 42 Expiration.  US cities are preparing for a surge in migrants as the Covid-19-related Title 42 border restrictions are set to expire. The Trump-era policy allowed the US government to turn away migrants in the hopes of stopping the spread of COVID-19, and has been upheld by courts and the Biden administration to help with the flow of migrants. However, the restrictions are set to expire this Thursday, and the US is expecting to see a huge surge in migration, which US Customs and Border Protection officials have said they have already begun to see ahead of the expiration. CNN

Yellen Cautions 'Constitutional Crisis' if Congress Fails to Raise Debt Ceiling.  US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen issued a warning to Congress that if they do not do something to address the debt ceiling, it may trigger a “constitutional crisis.” The government has until June to raise the debt ceiling, otherwise it runs the risk of running short on cash to pay its bills. President Joe Biden has asked Congress to raise the debt ceiling unconditionally; last month the House passed a bill that would raise the debt ceiling, but it included major spending cuts over the next decade. Reuters

U.S. Think Tank Research Sparks Concern Among Top Chinese Officials.  Chinese officials say that US-based think tanks have used open-source data to “mine” Chinese information and are using that to support Washington’s hardline policies against Beijing.  According to a new report by the Wall Street Journal, research by the think tanks, which include Center for Security and Emerging Technology at Georgetown University and the Center for a New American Security, caused concern among top officials in Beijing prompting a recent campaign by Beijing to tighten its anti-espionage laws and clamp down on Western access to Chinese data.  Wall Street Journal

U.S. to Change Written Consent Policy for Americans Detained in Hostile Countries. The US government has announced its intent to make changes to a law that prevents the government from sharing information about Americans who are detained abroad without first obtaining written permission from the individual.  The policy is part of the 1974 Privacy Act, which requires the government to obtain written permission, often impossible to obtain from Americans detained abroad, from an individual before sharing information with others including family members. Last month the State Department announced steps to allow for the sharing of information in instances when it determines that it is in the best interests of the detained individual.  The move comes following the recent arrest of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, whose high-profile case is the latest in what many have called ‘hostage diplomacy’ by Russia.  Wall Street Journal

Western Europe

King Charles and Queen Camilla Crowned on Saturday. King Charles III and Queen Camilla were officially crowned on Saturday.  The coronation ceremony took place at Westminster Abbey and was attended by close to 100 world leaders and celebrities. BBC New York Times Reuters 

Polish E.U. Border Patrol Aircraft Narrowly Avoids Impact with ‘Aggressive’ Russian Fighter Jet.  A Polish military aircraft narrowly avoided colliding with a Russian fighter jet over the Black Sea near Romania on Friday.  Poland was participating in an E.U. sponsored border security mission. Poland blamed the Russian warplane for the incident, saying it made “"aggressive and dangerous maneuvers" at the Polish jet, which caused it to suffer turbulence and lose altitude.  Both Poland and Romania condemned the incident as a provocation by Russia.  Reuters

E.U. to Sanction Chinese Companies Supporting Russia in Ukraine War.  The E.U. is reportedly planning sanctions against seven Chinese businesses accused of selling equipment to Russia that can be used for weapons to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to a new sanctions list seen by The Financial Times.  At least one of the targeted companies has already been subject to U.S. sanctions for links to Russia’s military-industrial complex. In response to the reported sanctions list, China’s foreign ministry on Monday urged the E.U. against using Chinese ties with Russia as a justification to “impose illegal sanctions or long-arm jurisdiction against China.”  Financial Times Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Russia Launches Mass Drone Strikes Across Ukraine Ahead of May 9 Victory Day.  Russia launched its largest wave of drone strikes in months across Ukraine on Monday.  Ukrainian officials say that Ukrainian forces destroyed all 60 of the drones, believed to be Iranian made.  Falling debris reportedly caused some damage to buildings and injured at least five people in the Kyiv region.  Damage to a building also occurred in the Black Sea port city of Odessa.  The move comes one day before Russia celebrates “Victory Day”, which commemorates victory over Nazi Germany in WWII.  Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s ground forces commander says that Russia has significantly increased shelling in the besieged city of Bakhmut, and that Russia’s military is making an all out effort to seize the city before Tuesday’s celebration in Russia.  Syrskyi says his forces will continue to defend the city. Reuters Al Jazeera Reuters Deutsche Welle 

Wagner Group to Remain in Bakhmut after Moscow Promises Ammunition.  Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigohzin released an audio message on his Telegram channel where he appeared to reverse an earlier threat to pull out of Bakhmut.  Prigohzin says that he has been promised additional ammunition and weapons by Moscow and that his forces would continue operations as Russia tries to seize Bakhmut.   Reuters Deutsche Welle

Analysis: Top Ukraine Officials Warn Offensive Could Fall Short of Expectations.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov have signaled they are trying to lower expectations for the highly anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive.  In an interview with The Washington Post, Zelenskyy and Reznikov said hype over the counter offensive may cause disappointment over its outcome, even if it achieves some success.  Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said many are “waiting for something huge,” which he fears will lead to “emotional disappointment.”  Concerns over the counteroffensive’s results appear to come from pressure on Ukraine to make what Reznikov called a “next example of a success” to rally continued Western military support.  Examples of what this success could look like include breaking the land bridge between mainland Russia and occupied Crimea and retaking key critical infrastructure facilities like the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and Kakhovka hydroelectric plant.  Zelenskyy said any liberation of occupied territories would be “a success.”  Ukrainian officials say preparations for the counteroffensive are nearly complete, though they continue to call for Western support, especially long-range strike capabilities.  Washington Post 

IAEA Chief Says Situation Around Zaporizhzhia “Unpredictable”.  Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says that conditions around the Zaporizhzia nuclear plant are becoming increasingly dangerous and says steps must be taken to ensure nuclear safety.  This comes amid ongoing evacuations announced by Russian officials in the area, citing increased combat activity near the plant.  Grossi says the situation near the facility is becoming increasingly “unpredictable and potentially dangerous”.  Russian forces seized the plant in the early days of the war and analysts say the region is likely to be an area of focus in the upcoming Ukrainian offensive.  Reuters BBC The Guardian

Russian Official Says Ukraine Launched Over 10 Drones on Crimea.  A Russian official says that Ukraine launched more than 10 drones at targets inside of Russian-occupied Crimea over the weekend.  Three of the drones reportedly targeted the Russian-occupied city of Sevastopol, with Russia claiming that all three of the drones were destroyed by air defense systems. Reuters CNN

Pro- Russian Writer Injured in Car Bombing in Russia.  Zakhar Prilepin, a pro-Russian military blogger, was injured in a car bomb attack in the Nizhny Novgorod region of Russia, about 250 miles east of Moscow. Prilepin’s driver was reportedly killed in the blast.  A spokeswoman for Russia’s Foreign Ministry blamed Kyiv and other western nations for the attack.  In reaction to that allegation, the Security Service of Ukraine told Ukrainian media that it could “neither confirm nor deny” its involvement in either this attack or others “that happens to the occupiers and their accomplices”.  Russian media reported that Prilepin had received surgery and was alive and in stable condition.  Associated Press CNN

Kyiv Claims it Downed a Russian Hypersonic Missile.  Ukrainian Air Force commander Mykola Oleshchuk announced on Saturday that Ukrainian forces had successfully destroyed a Russian Kinzhal “hypersonic” ballistic missile.  Oleshchuk says that a US-made Patriot air defense system was used in the operation.  Deutsche Welle says the claim, which is unverified, would mark the first known instance of Ukrainian forces destroying one of Russia’s most advanced missiles.  Moscow has previously touted the missile's speed and range, saying the missile was very difficult to intercept.   Deutsche Welle

Analysis: Turkey’s Presidential Race Heats Up as Erdogan Faces Tough Fight to Remain in Office.  Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is facing the toughest political fight of his two-decade rule as polls in Turkey show a tight race ahead of a May 14 election.  Erdogan is facing political resistance amid ongoing financial difficulty in the country following the massive earthquake that devastated large regions of the country earlier this year.  Reuters reports that despite the high-stakes race, Erdogan appears to be confident and using all of the tools at his disposal as he enters the final days of the race.  Reuters

Asia and Oceania

China, US Say Need to Stabilize Relations.  Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang met with U.S. Ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns on Monday.  Chinese state media reports that Qin emphasized to Burns that Beijing and Washington must “stabilize” relations to “avoid a downward spiral and prevent any accidents.”  Qin said a series of “erroneous words and deeds” has caused the current deterioration of Sino-U.S. relations and particularly emphasized U.S. support of Taiwan as a primary point of contention.  Burns echoed this call for stability in relations and added that China and the U.S. should quickly resume and expand “high-level communication.”  Reuters

Chinese Spacecraft Returns to Earth After 276 Days.  An experimental uncrewed Chinese spacecraft returned to Earth on Monday after being launched into orbit 276 days ago, according to Chinese state media who called the spacecraft’s mission an “important” step forward in China’s development of reusable space technologies.  No details on the specific technologies the mission tested, how high or far or which orbits the craft traveled through were given.  Commentators on social media have reportedly speculated that Beijing may have developed a spacecraft similar to the U.S. Air Force's X-37B, which is reusable and designed to stay in orbit for years.  Reuters

Japanese, South Korean Leaders Reaffirm Ties at Summit Amid North Korea Threats.  Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Seoul on Sunday for a summit with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol.  Kishida’s trip marked the first visit by a Japanese premier to South Korea in 12 years and came after Yoon’s trip to Japan in March.  The Seoul summit focused on boosting security ties to address shared concerns over the North Korean military threat.  Kishida also touched on historical disputes concerning Japan’s occupation of Korea in World War Two, which has strained relations between Tokyo and Seoul, by saying his “heart hurts” when he thinks of those who suffered during that time, though he did not offer a formal apology for Japan’s actions.  Yoon thanked Kishida for addressing the subject and emphasized friction over the issue should not block efforts to strengthen cooperation.  Associated Press Reuters 

Indian Troops Kill Two Militants in Kashmir. On Saturday, Indian soldiers killed two suspected militants in Kashmir as ongoing counterinsurgency operations continue, according to officials. This comes just a day after Kashmir rebels killed five Indian soldiers with an explosive device. Recently, the Indian army has increased its presence in Kashmir to counter rebel groups fighting against Indian rule in the disputed region.  Associated Press 

Middle East and Northern Africa

Syria Readmitted to Arab League After 11-year Absence. Syria has officially been readmitted into the Arab League after an 11-year absence following a vote from member Arab governments. The decision will allow Syria to resume participation in the group effective immediately, and also calls for a resolution to the refugee and drug smuggling crisis triggered by the civil war. Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Abouol Gheit told reporters that Syria’s readmission is not a normalization of ties between Syria and Arab nations as that is a decision for each country to make on their own.  Associated Press CNN France 24 

Israel Releases Jordan Legislator after Alleged Gun Smuggling Amid West Bank Tensions.  Israel released a Jordanian lawmaker who had been arrested on suspicion of smuggling guns into Israel.  Israel’s domestic security agency said the lawmaker, Imad Al-Adwan, was detained on April 22 when guards at a border crossing found over 200 firearms in his bags.  The agency added that investigations have shown Al-Adwan has made 12 separate smuggling attempts since early 2022, bringing items ranging from gold to birds into Israel.  Al-Adwan’s release appears to be aimed at avoiding further straining ties between Israel and Jordan, which have suffered over Israel’s recent settlement expansion and violence in the West Bank and Jerusalem.  Associated Press 

Satellite Imagery Shows 2 Oil Tankers Seized by Iran near Bandar Abbas Port City. Satellite images from Planet Labs PBC show that the Advantage Sweet and the Niovi, two oil tankers seized by Iran, are being kept off the coast of a port city in the Hormozgan province. The two oil tankers are Marshall Islands and Panama-flagged, respectively. The Advantage Sweet was seized on April 27 in the Gulf of Oman after allegedly striking another ship, although there is no evidence to suggest that. Niovi was seized as it left a dock in Dubai and was headed towards Fujairah, a city on the UAE’s eastern coast. Associated Press 

Afghan Taliban, Pakistan Seek to Lessen Conflict at Border and Increase Trade.  Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban government signed an accord on Sunday to boost trade and lower border tensions.  Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and Afghanistan’s acting foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, met in Islamabad to finalize the agreement, which focuses on strengthening trade and defense cooperation and addressing militant activity in the region.  Muttaqi reportedly said at the meeting that Pakistan should open talks with the Pakistani Taliban, Tehreek-e-Taliban, though Islamabad has not commented on the matter.  Muttaqi and Bhutto Zardari also reportedly met earlier with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang to discuss China’s financial support for Pakistan.  Associated Press 

Pakistan Vows More Security for Chinese Employees. During a meeting on Friday between Pakistani President Arif Alvi and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, Alvi promised that Pakistan will boost security for Chinese nationals working on projects in Pakistan. China has been working to guarantee more protection for its nationals working in Pakistan after a suicide bomber killed nine Chinese workers in an attack in 2021.  Associated Press 

Sub Saharan Africa

Sudan Warring Sides Start Talks in Saudi Arabia.  The U.S. and Saudi Arabia on Saturday began mediating talks in Jeddah between Sudan’s army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (R.S.F.).  The U.N. says it hopes the talks, which are the first serious effort to end the fighting in Sudan, will produce a ceasefire, though the warring sides have said they will only focus on humanitarian truce at the talks and not work towards ending the conflict.  So far, Saudi state media reports that Riyadh has committed $100 million for Sudan humanitarian aid.  Amid the Jeddah talks, fighting in Sudan continues; witnesses continue to report explosions and air strikes in and around the capital of Khartoum.  Al Jazeera Associated Press 

Mali Military Junta Presents Timeline for Constitutional Referendum.  Mali’s military junta announced it will hold a constitutional referendum on June 18.  The referendum, which was scheduled for March 19, will mark a major step towards elections promised for February 2024.  Associated Press Al Jazeera 

Cyber and Tech

CISA Chief Warns AI May Be ‘Most Powerful Weapon of Our Time’.  CISA Director Jen Easterly told a security summit at Vanderbilt University on Friday that AI may become the “most powerful weapon of our time.”  In a remark that aligns with other recent Administration comments on AI risks, Easterly said AI companies should break the “decades-long vicious cycle of technological innovation at the expense of security.”  Easterly told summit participants that she favors “smart use of regulation.”  She connected the explosion in generative AI tools with the coming 2024 presidential election, noting that OpenAI’s next iteration — GPT-5 – likely be released shortly before the election.  Easterly projected possible malign uses of AI including a “not too distant future where how-to guides, AI-generated imagery, auto-generated shopping lists are available for terrorists and for criminals, providing the capability to develop things like cyber weapons, chemical weapons, bio weapons .” This prospect, Easterly said, is “not even the worst case scenario.”  CyberScoop

NSA Research Chief Urges Intel Community Use of Commercial AI.  NSA’s research director, Gilbert Herrera, recommends that the U.S intelligence community take advantage of AI models being produced for commercial uses.  Herrera said “if we want to realize the full power of artificial intelligence for other applications, then we’re probably going to have to rely on a partnership with industry.”  Herrera noted, however, that using large language models taken from the open Internet carries the risk of incorporating possibly corrupted algorithms into classified operations.  Noting that this poses a “tough problem,” Herrera said the U.S. still needs to address the issue because adversaries will be taking advantage of advances in commercial AI.  Herrera framed his remarks noting, in particular, China’s mammoth siphoning of data through video surveillance and other collection methods.  Intelligence community use of public data, Herrera stressed, “is an issue we’re going to have to grapple with because otherwise there would be capabilities of AI that we would not be able to use.”  Bloomberg

Pentagon, NSF Launch New AI Institute Based on Multidisciplinary Research.  On June 1, a new research institute created by the DoD and National Science Foundation will begin work to explore the workings of the human brain and how they might shape AI R&D.  The AI Institute for Artificial and Natural Intelligence (ARNI) will promote collaboration among researchers focusing on neuroscience, cognitive science and artificial intelligence.  ARNI will be operated by a university consortium led by Columbia University.  The institute aims to incorporate findings in neural, biological and cognitive research to guide AI development, including more capable and trustworthy designs.  Bindu Nair, a DoD basic research director, described the advantages of the planned multidisciplinary research: “As our understanding of artificial intelligence grows, it has transformed the fields of biology and neuroscience, even as our understanding of cognition in nature informs advances in AI research. This institute seeks to unify these fields.”  DefenseScoop

Google Searches To Feature Conversational AI, Video, Social Media Content.  The incorporation of conversational AI in search results will transform the way Google’s search engine interacts with users.  In shifting from the existing presentation of hyperlinked website results, Google’s new approach will allow user conversations with an AI program codenamed “Magi.”  According to Google, its famous search engine will become more “visual, snackable, personal, and human,” and in addition to an AI interface will include more short video and social media posts.  Google employees have been testing the Magi AI tool in advance of the company’s annual developer conference on May 10, when the new search features will be introduced. According to internal Google documents, the shift in search strategy stems from the goal of being more responsive to user queries that are not satisfied by “traditional web results.”  Wall Street Journal

Chinese Firms Seeking Paths to Advanced AI Without Dependence on Latest Chips.  A Wall Street Journal investigation has found that an emerging focus of Chinese technology companies is how to create state-of-the-art AI products that operate with fewer or less capable semiconductors.  The Journal’s review of research papers and interviews with Chinese company staff revealed that a related aim of current R&D is how multiple chips might be combined to preclude dependence on a single supply chain.  According to the Journal, Chinese telecommunications manufacturer Huawei and technology firms Baidu and Alibaba are among the companies examining these alternative chip strategies.  Due to Commerce Department sanctions, Chinese companies cannot acquire Nvidia A100 chips, the most commonly used semiconductor for advanced AI development.  This ban applies as well to the Nvidia H100, which is even more powerful.  Consequently, Chinese researchers are hampered in the development of larger AI language models, and must make do with Nvidia’s less capable A800 and H800 chips, which has prompted efforts to combine chips in a way that simulates the more powerful processors.   Wall Street Journal

Hacker Chat Rooms Create Vibrant Marketplace for Government, Corporate Secrets.  The Financial Times is out with a report describing the hacker forums and other platforms found across the Internet that are fertile territory for exposing government and corporate secrets.  The report says that several hacker chat rooms are home to libraries of documents, including those exposed recently by National Guardsman Jack Teixeira.   Telegram is a popular platform for such exchanges as are dark web forums popular with hackers and cybercriminals.  The information on such outlets is varied, but can be extraordinarily revealing.  One document release observed by the Times included several previously unreported items, including on Chinese efforts to seize Western satellites through cyber interventions, and plans by Russia’s Wagner mercenary group to acquire weapons from various countries.  Osher Assor, an Israeli cybersecurity consultant said, “Once this kind of data finds itself on the highway of the internet, it doesn’t take long for a small group of people to stumble upon it — and once they do, it spreads on the Internet like an epidemic.”  Financial Times

Finnish Paper Contributes Censorship-Evading Feature to Popular Online Game.  A Finnish newspaper has found a novel way around Russian censorship of news on the Ukraine war – it incorporates news updates in hidden parts of an online game popular with Russian players.  Users of “Counter Strike – Global Offensive” (CSGO) have access to a battlefield map that links to a chatroom where information in English and Russian provides updates on Russian military deaths, and details of Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian civilians.  CSGO is one of the world’s most popular “first-person shooter games,” with 10 percent of its player base made up of Russian users.  The game map providing access to the sensitive information was launched on May 3, and has gained over 10,000 subscribers.  BleepingComputer

Western Digital Reveals Customer Data Stolen in Ransomware Attack.  The data storage giant, Western Digital, has taken its store offline and informed customers of a system breach that resulted in the theft of sensitive personal data.  In a Friday notification to customers, the company confirmed that the stolen data including “customer names, billing and shipping addresses, email addresses, and telephone numbers.”  Other information, such as partial credit card numbers, was stored in an encrypted format “as a security measure.”  The company warned customers to be on the alert for spear phishing attempts to gather additional personal data through contacts masquerading as Western Digital communications.  The company said it expects its online store to be back in operation by May 15.  BleepingComputer

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