Report for Monday, May 6, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Israel urges Rafah evacuations as ceasefire talks stall

Sullivan says U.S. military aid will help Ukraine mount 2025 counteroffensive

China's Xi visits Europe

China launches Chang'e 6 lunar probe in space program milestone

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW - Cybersecurity Official: Many Water Facilities Still Unaware of Threat - and Unprepared.

THE ISRAEL HAMAS WAR

Cairo truce talks stall over length of cease-fire.  Negotiations between Israel and Hamas hit a hard stop Sunday.  “We were very close, but Netanyahu’s narrow-mindedness aborted an agreement,” Mousa Abu Marzouk, a senior Hamas official, told the New York Times.  He said Hamas thought Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted a deal that would permit Israel to invade Rafah after the hostages are released.  “The cease-fire needs to be permanent and fixed,” Marzouk said.  Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel would not withdraw from Gaza and stop fighting because that would give Hamas to regroup, re-establish control over Gaza, rebuild their military, and threaten Israel.  The Israeli delegation didn’t even go to Cairo for the latest round of negotiations, saying it was waiting for Hamas’ response that never came.  On Monday, Hamas’s political leadership is scheduled to convene in Doha to discuss this turn of events.  CIA Director William Burns went to Doha and met with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani to discuss getting the talks back on track, the Times said.  Last month, the U.S. told Qatar that it should expel Hamas if the group continues to reject a cease-fire with Israel, an agreement the Biden administration deems vital to easing the upheaval gripping the Middle East, a U.S. official told the Washington Post.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently reiterated to Qatar’s premier that the Gulf state should expel Hamas if the group won’t make a cease-fire deal with Israel.  New York Times Reuters Reuters Washington Post Associated Press

Israeli soldiers die in Hamas rocket attack. Israel counterstrikes, preps for imminent Rafah incursion.   On Sunday, Hamas launched roughly 10 rockets toward the Kerem Shalom crossing, killing three Israeli soldiers and injured 11, the Israeli Defense Forces said.  Most of the rockets struck an area where troops were gathered on the border, not far from the crossing.  The soldiers were reportedly guarding military equipment for the IDF’s planned offensive in Rafah.  Israel responded with airstrikes.  Al Jazeera reported that Israel bombarded Rafah, killing 22 people, including eight children.  Israel also closed the crossing to aid trucks.  Meanwhile, Israel prepared to send ground troops into Rafah.  Early Monday morning, the Israeli military began urging Palestinians to evacuate Rafah’s eastern neighborhoods along the border with Israel and to move to an expanded humanitarian zone in the al-Mawasi and Khan Younis areas, signaling that an Israeli ground invasion of Rafah is imminent.  The army said it had set up field hospitals, tents, food and water in al-Mawasi.  New York Times Reuters Reuters Times of Israel Times of Israel Al Jazeera Associated Press Bloomberg

Israeli soldiers accused of executing, brutalizing Arabs in West Bank.  Residents of the Nur Shams refugee camp in the West Bank accused the Israeli army of using brutal tactics during an April 18 raid on militants.  They claimed that 14 Palestinians were killed, including three who were summarily executed or used as human shields by Israeli soldiers, and at least two children died.  They also charged that people were trapped in their homes, electricity, water and internet were cut off, roads torn up, houses wrecked and bodies left in alleyways.  The Israel Defense Forces denied allegations of executions and using civilians as human shields.  They said that Palestinian militants, not Israeli soldiers, had killed one man and that a 14-year-old who died had attacked Israeli forces.  Washington Post

Israel raids Al Jazeera, orders satellite news network’s Israel operation closed.   Israeli officials raided a Jerusalem hotel room Sunday and seized Al Jazeera equipment, hours after Israel’s cabinet ordered the Qatar-based TV news network’s operations shut down.  Al Jazeera’s broadcasts and access to its website were blocked.  Al Jazeera went off Israel’s main cable and satellite providers after the order, but its website and online streaming links still operated Sunday.  The order closing Al Jazeera’s Israel operations marks a first for Israel.  Al Jazeera called Israel’s claims that it was a threat to Israeli security a "dangerous and ridiculous lie” and that it reserved the right to "pursue every legal step" in response.  Associated Press Al Jazeera Bloomberg Reuters BBC CNN

Four Lebanese killed in Israeli strike on border village.  Lebanese security and civil defense officials said that an Israeli airstrike killed four members of a family in the Lebanese border town of Meiss al Jabal Sunday during a cross-border exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah.  In retaliation, Hezbollah said it fired "tens" of Katyusha rockets at Kiryat Shmona, an Israeli border village.  Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Sullivan says military aid will help Ukraine mount a counteroffensive in 2025.  U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Ukraine will look to mount a counteroffensive in 2025 with help from a recent $61 billion U.S. military aid package. Speaking at the FT Weekend Festival in Washington on Saturday, Sullivan said that while he expected short-term Russian advances, the fresh aid will help Ukraine hold its ground in 2024 and prepare for a counteroffensive to reclaim territory in 2025.  This strategy hinges on further financial support from Congress and the White House, which is an uncertain prospect if Donald Trump wins November’s presidential election.  The New York Times, citing analysts inside and outside the U.S. government, said it would probably be summer, at best, and year’s end, at worst, before Ukraine can stabilize its front lines with the new infusion of aid.  Financial Times New York Times

Ukraine marks its third Easter at war under fire from Russian drones.  Russia targeted Ukraine with a drone attack on the third Easter of its full-scale invasion, launching 24 Shahed drones, with 23 intercepted by Ukraine.  In response to the attacks, officials recommended celebrating Orthodox Easter services online for safety.  President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking in front of Kyiv's Saint Sophia Cathedral and clad in a traditional vyshyvanka (embroidered clothing), invoked unity and divine support, urging Ukrainians to pray together, especially for soldiers.  Meanwhile, Patriarch Kirill led Easter services in Moscow, showing solidarity with the Kremlin.  Before Easter, Russia targeted Kharkiv, Dnipro, and the Black Sea port city of Odesa on Saturday, killing two civilians.  Zelensky said Russia used eight missiles of various kinds and nearly 70 guided aerial bombs in the attack.  Zelensky also said Ukraine's 110th mechanized brigade shot down a Russian Su-25.   Associated Press Reuters

Russia says it has driven the Ukrainian army from 211 square miles of territory this year. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed on Friday that Russian forces have captured 547 square kilometers (211 square miles) in areas that Moscow calls "new regions" of Ukraine, referring to Ukraine’s Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia regions.  Shoigu reported advances despite Russia controlling only parts of these four Ukrainian regions.  Reuters

Rheinmetall CEO promises to send Kyiv 'hundreds of thousands' of shells this year. Rheinmetall, a German arms manufacturer, will supply Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of artillery shells in 2024, including prototypes with a 100-kilometer range, CEO Armin Papperger said on Sunday. As Russia intensifies attacks on Ukrainian cities and strengthens positions on the eastern front, Ukraine faces a critical ammunition shortage. Rheinmetall's production has increased to an expected 700,000 this year, from 70,000 shells annually before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.  Papperger noted the declining artillery production in the West, saying, "The Western world is not prepared for a conventional war."  New artillery plants are planned in Germany, Lithuania, and Ukraine.  Kyiv Independent

​​Sikorski: Putin not reckless enough to attack NATO country.  Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said in a BBC World interview that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to attack a NATO country.  Sikorski also said that Poland would not rule anything out regarding military support for Ukraine.  "We will not show our cards, Sikorski said. "We will let President Putin wonder what we will do.”  He also supported increased arms supplies to Ukraine rather than deploying troops, praising the recent $61 billion U.S. aid bill.  "Ukraine desperately needs anti-aircraft missiles to protect its industry, to protect its power plants, and to protect its infrastructure. I think it is much better to spend money on defending Ukraine than having to rebuild it later...I think President Putin would do well to acknowledge his invasion as a mistake and make a new calculation, taking into account that we will help Ukraine as long as necessary."  Kyiv Independent

Little hope of Ukraine breakthrough during Xi France visit: observers.  Observers have little optimism that French President Emmanuel Macron can persuade Chinese President Xi Jinping to help end Russia’s war against Ukraine. Xi is visiting France on Monday and Tuesday before traveling to Serbia and Hungary, two nations with close ties to Russia.  "France and the European Union expect him to use his influence on Russia, but Xi Jinping has nothing to offer on Ukraine," a former European diplomat told Agence France-Presse.  Macron thinks he still has a chance.  "It's not in China's interest today to have a Russia that destabilizes the international order," the French president said in an interview with The Economist published on Thursday.  "We need to work with China to build peace."  U.S. officials say China has provided dual-use supplies that have let Russia regroup in the face of a long delay in U.S. aid to Ukraine. China-Russia trade in 2023 reached a record $240 billion.  Barron’s

Ukraine says Zelensky's placement on Russian wanted list 'sign of desperation. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry on Saturday labeled Russian media claims of placing President Volodymyr Zelensky on a wanted list as a "sign of desperation," contrasting it with the enforceable International Criminal Court (ICC) warrants against Russian leaders for war crimes.  Russia also placed former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Ukraine's Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Pavliuk on the wanted list, according to the state-run news agency TASS.  The ministry criticized the move as part of Russian state propaganda and highlighted the ICC's real and actionable warrants against Vladimir Putin and others for serious offenses, including the forced deportation of Ukrainian children and strikes on civilian infrastructure.  Kyiv IndependentReuters

Ukraine tightens military procurement after corruption shakeup.  Eight months after a corruption scandal led to a leadership shakeup, Ukraine has tightened its military procurement processes and increased cooperation with NATO.  The overhaul came after former Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov was ousted after graft accusations in military procurement by his subordinates.  New mechanisms have been introduced to mitigate corruption risks, with enhanced checks and balances involving two state companies overseeing procurement.  Yuriy Dzhygyr, a deputy defense minister, told Bloomberg that a new vetted procurement system has helped “liquidate corruption risks.”  Additionally, Ukraine is engaging with a NATO program to advance defense reforms and meet anti-corruption commitments.  It has also been working with the U.S. to ensure proper handling of Western ammunition.  Corruption remains a concern for Ukraine’s wartime allies.  Last month, Ukraine’s agriculture minister became the country’s first cabinet member detained during a crackdown tied to corruption allegations.  Last year, Zelensky also fired all of the army’s top draft officers following media reports of graft.  Ukraine ranked 104 out of 180 countries in Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index in 2023.  Bloomberg

Ukrainian men abroad voice anger over pressure to return home to fight.  Ukrainian men living abroad are expressing frustration and fear over a new mobilization law requiring them to register with local draft offices, effectively pressuring them to return and fight in the war against Russia. The law has led to the temporary suspension of consular services like passport renewals. Critics argue the law lacks fairness and might force men into dangerous military service. “There will be no restrictions or forced return of Ukrainian citizens of any gender or age to a country that is at war,” Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna told Deutsche Welle on Tuesday.  But she added: “There are no easy solutions to war issues, and let’s not forget that the war is ongoing, and we have to win it.”  Officials at Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry say they are trying to compile the total number of men living abroad.  Tens of thousands of fighting-age men are living in Poland, whose government may encourage their return. “We definitely won’t protect draft dodgers,” Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Szejna said on Polish television.  Washington Post

Russia’s gas business will never recover from the war in Ukraine.  Russia's gas industry faces a grim future because of its war on Ukraine, with little chance of recovery.  After halting most gas exports to the European Union in 2022 and initially profiting from soaring prices, Russia is now struggling to redirect the 180 billion cubic meters of gas, 80% of its total exports, that Europe bought in 2021.  Europe has adapted by filling its reserves with liquified natural gas (LNG) from the U.S., leaving Russia's state-owned Gazprom unprofitable.  Efforts to expand pipelines to China and increase LNG production are hindered by sanctions and reliance on Western technology, making it unlikely that Russia will regain its former energy market dominance any time soon. Economist

Cubans lured to Russian army by high pay and passports.  Hundreds of Cubans have reportedly joined the Russian army, attracted by high salaries and the promise of Russian citizenship. Investigations suggest that over 200 Cubans were recruited, with some already in Russia, potentially lured under misleading pretenses.  The enlistment is fueled by economic hardships in Cuba and easy travel between the two allied nations.  This strategy helps Russia replenish its forces in Ukraine while avoiding domestic unrest from forced mobilizations.  BBC

Ukraine confirms car bomb attack killing Russian organizer of torture chambers in Berdiansk.  A car bomb explosion in Russian-occupied Berdiansk killed a Moscow-installed official, Yevgeniy Ananievsky, who was reportedly involved in establishing torture chambers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, HUR.  Russian law enforcement confirmed the incident without revealing the victim's identity. Russian officials and collaborators have been frequent targets in both Ukraine and Russia.  Ukraine has documented over 128,000 victims of purported Russian war crimes, including civilian attacks and torture.  Kyiv Independent

The Americas

Indian nationals arrested in killing of Sikh leader.  Three Indian men have been arrested in Canada, charged with the June murder of Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar, which sparked a diplomatic crisis between Canada and India.  Nijjar, a Canadian citizen and Sikh separatist, was killed in British Columbia.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has accused India of orchestrating Nijjar's assassination, which India denies.  The incident has intensified concerns about foreign interference in Canada.  New York Times Reuters Associated Press

FBI races to counter China, Iran targeting of dissidents.  The U.S. Justice Department have increasingly monitored China and Iran’s intimidation against dissidents abroad over the past five years.  Officials note the sophistication of such operations, which often include harassment and violence.  The FBI emphasizes the rising trend of transnational oppression, reflecting geopolitical tensions and authoritarian regimes' strengthening their hold on power.  Associated Press The Cipher Brief

Blinken to travel to Guatemala.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is visiting Guatemala on Tuesday.  He is leading a delegation to a ministerial meeting of the Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection.  Blinken will meet with Guatemalan President Bernardo Arevalo and other officials to discuss migration management, law enforcement, and refugee integration, according to the State Department.  Reuters 

Asia and Oceania

Philippines seeks to avoid raising South China Sea tensions, won't use water cannons, offensive weapons.  Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said on Monday that the Philippines will not use water cannons or any offensive weapons in the South China Sea, unlike Chinese vessels in the area.  He added that the Philippine navy and coast guard is tasked with lowering tensions in the disputed waterway.  Manila has protested Beijing’s use of water cannons against Filipino vessels in the South China Sea, describing it as harassment and “dangerous maneuvers.”  A spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry on Monday said, “If the Philippines truly wants to de-escalate the situation in the South China Sea, it should immediately stop sending ships ... and stop sending supplies to illegally grounded ships," referring to the Sierra Madre, which the Philippines uses as a base to assert its claim over the Second Thomas Shoal.  Marcos’s remarks come as the U.S. and Philippines are engaged in annual military drills.  Reuters 

Drones changed Myanmar civil war, and linked rebels to the world.  In Myanmar, the use of drones by rebel groups has changed the dynamics of the civil war. Rebels, learning from wars such as the one in Ukraine, have used consumer drones modified for combat to challenge the military junta's superior conventional forces. Despite limited resources, these drones have enabled the rebels to conduct surveillance, execute strikes, and shift the balance of power, showing how modern technology is altering traditional warfare globally. This adaptation highlights the growing importance of technology in asymmetric conflicts, where smaller forces leverage innovation against larger, better-equipped armies. New York Times

Europe

Xi visits Europe, seeking strategic opportunity.  Chinese President Xi Jinping is visiting France, Serbia, and Hungary for his first trip to Europe in five years, which could potentially weaken European ties with the U.S. and promote a new global order less dominated by American influence.  Amid heightened tensions regarding China's support for Russia and surveillance concerns, Xi’s visit symbolizes China's growing influence in Europe.  This trip tests Europe’s ability to balance its relationships with China and the U.S.  Xi has timed his arrival at his second stop, Serbia, to coincide with the 25th anniversary of the deadly NATO bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade during the Kosovo war.  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has backed enormous Chinese investment and used his country’s position as a European Union member to dilute criticism of China.  New York Times Bloomberg Bloomberg Al Jazeera Al Jazeera Associated Press Associated Press Reuters Wall Street Journal

Russia plotting sabotage across Europe, intelligence agencies warn.  European intelligence agencies have alerted their governments to an increase in Russian sabotage activities across Europe.  Russia, using both direct means and proxies, is actively engaging in bombings, arson, and infrastructure attacks, demonstrating little regard for civilian casualties. This escalation is evidenced by a series of incidents, including arrests related to planned attacks in Germany and the U.K., and investigations into railway derailments in Sweden and other sabotage activities across Europe.  This surge in hostile activities reflects Russia's strategic shift towards more aggressive and coordinated intelligence operations in Europe.  Financial Times

NATO drills show it is preparing for potential conflict with Russia, Moscow says.  Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for Russia's Foreign Ministry, claimed that NATO's four-month military exercise, Steadfast Defender, near Russia's borders is evidence that NATO is preparing for a potential conflict with Russia. The exercise aims to rehearse U.S. troop reinforcement in Europe.  It involves 90,000 troops, making it the largest since the Cold War.  Zakharova dismissed NATO's accusations of Russian hybrid warfare as misinformation, stating that NATO itself has engaged in hybrid warfare by supporting Ukraine.  Reuters

Russia blames Baltic countries for the severing of most ties.  Russia blames the Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia for the complete severance of their ties, attributing it to their "openly hostile line" towards Moscow. Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Sunday announced plans for asymmetric responses, primarily in economic and transit areas. This follows allegations from Estonia about Russian interference in GPS signals and broader concerns over Russian espionage activities in the region.  Reuters Kyiv Independent 

Middle East

Sullivan says U.S.-Saudi defense pact contingent on Israel deal.  U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that the Biden administration will only consider a defense pact with Saudi Arabia if the kingdom normalizes relations with Israel.  He emphasized the interconnectedness of these issues in achieving peace in the Middle East.  The agreement would include security guarantees for Saudi Arabia and the establishment of diplomatic ties with Israel, contingent upon an end to the Gaza conflict.  Bloomberg

Africa

U.N. warns Sudan’s warring parties that Darfur risks starvation and death without aid.  The United Nations warns of severe starvation risks in Sudan's Darfur region amid the ongoing civil war. The World Food Program (WFP) reports that 1.7 million people in Darfur face hunger. Violence has blocked humanitarian aid access, exacerbating the crisis. The WFP stresses the need to secure safe passage for aid deliveries to prevent a catastrophic hunger crisis.  The civil war between Sudan’s military, led by Gen. Abdel Fattah Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, commanded by Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, has been ongoing since April 2023.  Associated Press

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

China launches Chang'e 6 lunar probe for a sample-return mission, revving up space race with U.S.  China has launched an uncrewed lunar spacecraft, Chang'e 6, in a mission to retrieve samples from the far side of the moon, a significant milestone in the country's rapidly advancing space program and intensifying competition with the U.S. and other spacefaring nations.  The success of the Chang'e 6 mission would showcase the ability of the China National Space Administration (CNSA), which has made remarkable progress in a relatively short time, with capabilities now considered second only to the U.S.  China's previous lunar missions including the Chang'e 3 mission in 2013, which made the country the third nation to successfully land a spacecraft on the moon, and the Chang'e 4 mission in 2019, which made China the first country to land a probe on the far side of the moon.  The Chang'e 6 mission faces unique challenges due to the inability to directly communicate with the spacecraft from Earth, requiring signals to be relayed through a satellite recently launched by China.  The CNSA has invited international scientists, including researchers funded by NASA, to apply for access to the lunar samples for their own research. U.S.-China space cooperation is restricted by U.S. law.  NBC Space

Four start-ups lead China’s race to match OpenAI’s ChatGPT.  Four Chinese generative AI start-ups, Zhipu AI, Moonshot AI, MiniMax, and 01.ai, have achieved unicorn status with valuations ranging from $1.2 billion to $2.5 billion in the past three months.  The four AI companies have secured funding from primarily domestic investors and are trying to attract top talent to develop the most popular AI products. Although U.S. generative AI start-ups surpass their Chinese counterparts in terms of technological advancement and total fundraising, the absence of popular AI applications like ChatGPT and Character.ai in China has spurred 262 start-ups to develop homegrown alternatives.  Financial Times

Neuberger on cyberattacks: ‘We should be using an operational approach.’  Anne Neuberger, Deputy National Security Adviser for Cyber and Emerging Technologies, has been working to prevent attacks on U.S. critical infrastructure and mitigate the damage they can cause. “The physical and cyber are interlinked,” Neuberger stated, emphasizing the need to rely on regulators responsible for understanding safety in their respective sectors. She cited the Transportation Security Administration as an example, saying that they assess the safety of trains from both physical attacks and potential cyberattacks on their signaling systems. Neuberger stressed the importance of combining physical and cyber security measures to take an “operational approach” for a single set of risk assessments to effectively safeguard critical infrastructure.  The Record 

Email security loopholes path for North Korean social engineering attacks.  North Korean hackers are exploiting vulnerabilities in email security systems to send spoofed messages that appear legitimate, enabling them to impersonate journalists, academics, or experts with credible connections to North Korean policy circles.  The hackers are targeting improperly configured DNS Domain-based Message Authentication, Reporting, and Conformance (DMARC) record policies, a security tool used by email platforms to authenticate messages and prevent domain spoofing. When DMARC is not properly implemented, malicious emails attempting to mimic verified organizations can bypass spam filters or blocking mechanisms. Several U.S. federal agencies, including the FBI, NSA, and State Department, have issued an advisory warning about this ongoing campaign, which was tracked from the end of 2023 into early 2024.  BleepingComputer The Record

Finland warns of Android malware attacks breaching bank accounts.  Finland's Transport and Communications Agency (Traficom) is warning the public about an ongoing Android malware campaign targeting online bank accounts.  The scammers send SMS messages that appear to come from banks or payment service providers like MobilePay, using spoofing technology to make them seem as if they originate from domestic telecom operators or local networks.  The police have also issued a warning, stating that the malware allows the operators to access the victim's banking account and transfer funds.  In one reported case, a victim lost $102,000.  BleepingComputer

Report Info

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Brian Bonner, and Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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