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Monday, May 29, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Debt Ceiling Deal Headed to Congress.  President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Saturday reached an agreement on lifting the debt ceiling.  The arrangement will lift the debt ceiling for the two years while cutting and capping some government spending.  Congress must now approve the deal before June 5, when the US is expected to run out of cash to pay its obligations. McCarthy says that a majority of Republicans will back the deal, though some right-wing lawmakers who sought larger budget cuts are reportedly planning to oppose the plan.  Bloomberg New York Times Reuters

Haiti Vigilante Movement Has Reduced Gang Violence, Rights Group says.  Gang violence in Haiti has "drastically" fallen, a local human rights research group CARDH reported Sunday, following a vigilante justice movement that has killed 160 suspected criminals in the past month. The movement, called "Bwa Kale", began after Port-au-Prince residents lynched and set ablaze fire more than a dozen suspected gang members in April. The capital is thought to be 60% controlled by armed gangs; Haiti's government is requesting a "rapid" international force to help support its police force against the gangs.  Reuters

Western Europe

Sweden, Turkey to Discuss NATO Application Soon.  Sweden’s foreign ministry says that the foreign ministers of Sweden and Turkey will meet “soon” to discuss Sweden’s NATO membership bid.  Sweden and Finland applied to join the military alliance after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, but while Finland joined in April, Turkey and Hungary have held up Sweden’s bid.  Ankara says it opposes Stockholm’s NATO bid for allegedly harboring members of groups that Turkey considers as terrorists.  Sweden says that now that the Turkish presidential election has concluded, it hopes that NATO negotiations will quickly resume and move forward.  New York Times Reuters

EU to Send Human Rights Convoy to Cuba.  The European Union plans to deliver a human rights envoy to Havana in the wake of anti-government protests. During a visit to Cuba this week, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, said EU Special Representative for Human Rights Eamon Gilmore would visit in November "to analyze the situation created before, during and after the demonstrations and arrests." Cuba's government said those imprisoned were guilty of assault, vandalism and sedition. Reuters

Spain Investigating Reports that Moroccan Troops Fired on African Migrants.  Spain announced on Friday that it was investigating the reported attack by a Moroccan border patrol unit on 40 African migrants attempting to reach the Canary Islands. Migrants told the Walking Borders charity that on Tuesday morning after departing from the Western Sahara town of Boujdour, Moroccan troops fired up to four rounds of gunfire at the small boat. Officials in the Canary Islands report that the migrants were rescued by Spanish helicopters and patrol boats on Thursday evening south of Gran Canaria, and that three of them required medical aid. Though the situation and the events that took place remain unclear, the migrants told Red Cross rescuers that bullets killed two people, and that the bodies were thrown into the ocean. Spanish authorities reported that one migrant had bullet exit wounds. Moroccan human rights groups such as the CNDH council have cautioned of the increased use of excessive force on migrants moving from Morocco to Europe. Spanish police are investigating reports of casualties and Moroccan officials have not responded to the allegations.  Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Russia Unleashes Drone, Missile Attacks on Kyiv.  Russia launched another massive drone and missile attack on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on Sunday, ahead of the Kyiv Day celebration of the city’s founding later that day.  The Ukrainian military says the city’s air defenses intercepted 58 of 59 Iranian-made “kamikaze” drones launched in the record attack, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said 36 drones were destroyed within the Kyiv region.  One man was reportedly killed in the attack.  Ukraine’s Air Force said the assault targeted military and critical infrastructure in Kyiv and other areas in central Ukraine.  Zelensky confirmed that one drone hit an unidentified infrastructure target west of Kyiv.  Russia continued drone and missile strikes into Monday.  Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, said Ukrainian defenses shot down 11 cruise and ballistic missiles in the attack.  Kyiv officials say all Russian missiles targeting the capital were shot down, though one person in a central district was injured.  Beyond Kyiv, other Russian strikes took out five Ukrainian aircraft in western Ukraine and caused a fire in the Black Sea port of Odesa.  Besides coinciding with Kyiv Day, the attacks came ahead of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive, which the Ukrainian military indicated on Saturday it was nearly ready to launch.  Al Jazeera CNN Reuters 

Russia Claims Ukraine Hits Pipelines, Border Regions.  Russian media and officials claimed that Ukrainian drones struck pipeline installations in Russia on Saturday.  The reports said that two drones hit a station serving the Druzhba pipeline in the Tver region north of Moscow.  The Druzhba pipeline, which was constructed by the Soviet Union and is one of the biggest in the world, has been used less in the last year due to European efforts to lessen dependence on Russian energy.  Elsewhere, the reports said that Ukrainian shelling hit Russia’s western border regions, killing one in the Belgorod region and another in the Kursk region.  The Ukrainian defense ministry did not comment on the alleged attacks, continuing Ukraine’s lack of acknowledgement of attacks inside Russian territory.  CNBC Reuters 

Russia Says Intercepted Drone, Missile Attacks.  Russian officials say Russian air defenses repelled several drone and missile attacks on Sunday.  Local officials in the Krasnodar region near the Black Sea say air defenses intercepted drones that approached the Ilsky oil refinery.  They said the refinery was not damaged and did not say who launched the attack.  Elsewhere, Russia’s Defense Ministry said Russian forces intercepted two long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which Britain has given to Ukraine, along with shorter range US-built HIMARS-launched and HARM missiles, as well as 12 drones.  The ministry did not say where the interceptions took place but announced them in briefings related to operations in Ukraine.  The Ukrainian defense ministry did not comment on the alleged incidents.  Reuters RFE/RL

Zelensky Introduces Iranian Sanctions Bill.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has introduced a bill for Ukraine to sanction Iran for supplying Russia with weapons.  If passed, the measure will stop the transit of Iranian goods through Ukraine and ban Iran’s use of Ukrainian airspace, as well as imposing other restrictions on Iranian goods and citizens.  Ukraine and its Western allies maintain that Iran has been transferring weapons, namely drones, to Russia since the start of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.  Tehran has continued to deny these accusations.  Reuters RFE/RL

Russia Criticizes Japan for Nuclear Rebuke.  Russia on Saturday criticized Japan for imposing new sanctions against Moscow for its planned deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and accused Tokyo of "cynical, unscrupulous speculation" for comments about the nuclear threat from Russia.  Russia’s foreign ministry specifically called out Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno’s suggestion that Russia is engaging in “nuclear blackmail,” calling on Japan to show similar “concern” towards the US for doing the same by deploying nuclear weapons in Europe.  Reuters

Kremlin Condemns US Senator Lindsey Graham’s Support for Ukraine.  US Senator Lindsey Graham met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Friday.  In the meeting, Graham praised US military support for Ukraine, saying the $38 billion in aid sent since the start of Russia’s invasion in February 2022 has been “the best money we’ve ever spent.”  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov condemned Graham for the visit, pointing to a video released by the Ukrainian president’s office that featured his praise about US assistance for Kyiv being followed by a later comment about Russians that “are dying” in the conflict.  Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev responded to the video by saying it showed Graham claiming that the US “has never spent money so successfully as on the murder of Russians.”  Graham countered this criticism as Russian propaganda, saying that if Moscow wants Russian troops to stop dying in Ukraine, it should withdraw, adding that the Russian leadership “could care less about Russian soldiers.”  CNN Reuters

Putin Orders Fortified Border Security.  Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday ordered Russia’s border service to fortify security along Russia’s borders with Ukraine.  Putin said that the order aimed to facilitate the faster movement of military and civilian cargo, including food and humanitarian aid, to the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions in Ukraine, which are partially under Russian control.  Putin’s call for tougher border security follows a series of attacks in Russia’s western border regions.  Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for such attacks in Russian territory.  Reuters 

Prigozhin Claims Russian State Media Banned from Reporting on Him, Warns of Backlash.  The head of Russia’s Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on Sunday claimed that the Kremlin has banned state media from reporting on him.  In an apparent sign of this ban on coverage of Prigozhin, who has publicly clashed with Russian military leadership, state media did not report on the capture of Bakhmut, which was led by Wagner units, for 20 hours and did not air Prigozhin’s victory speech regarding the battle for the city.  Prigozhin said that the move to ban coverage on him will not work, maintaining that Wagner is a “stiletto that you cannot hide” and that an attempt to silence the group will only “give another shove to the people” to support Wagner, adding that the Russian people will respond in “two or three months” for “trying to shut everyone’s mouths and ears.”  The Kremlin did not comment on Prigozhin’s comments on the matter.  Reuters 

Belarus’s Lukashenko Says ‘Nuclear Weapons for Everyone’ in Russia Union.  Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Sunday that if other countries are worried about the escalating military cooperation between Russia and Belarus, they should “join in the Union State of Belarus and Russia” so that “there will be nuclear weapons for everyone.”  His comments come amid concerns about Russia moving forward with plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, which analysts say is meant as a warning against Western military aid in Ukraine.  Reuters

Kosovo Tensions Escalate, NATO Peacekeepers Deployed.  Tensions continue to escalate in Kosovo between Kosovo authorities and protesters in ethnic Serb areas opposed to ethnic Albanian mayors taking office.  The US and its allies are urging Kosovo against using force to install the mayors, saying that such actions will undermine peace efforts with Serbia.  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has likewise called on Kosovo to de-escalate the situation to lessen tensions with Serbia.  NATO peacekeeping units have since formed security cordons around four town halls in Kosovo to stop further clashes between local police and protesters.  Russia’s foreign ministry has also called for Pristina to stop “provocative” action, adding that it blamed current tensions on the US and Europe and that comments by “Western mediators” have come too late.  Al Jazeera Reuters 

Erdogan Wins Turkey Presidential Runoff Election.  Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was reelected in Turkey’s presidential runoff election on Sunday, extending his two decades in power.  Official electoral results show that Erdogan won with 52.1 percent of votes over his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who won 47.9 percent of votes.  Kilicdaroglu called the election the most unfair in years but did not dispute the results. Various world leaders have congratulated Erdogan on his victory, including President Joe Biden, who called on continued US-Turkey cooperation both bilaterally and in NATO, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who said the results show Turkey’s support for Erdogan’s efforts to “strengthen state sovereignty and conduct an independent foreign policy.”  Erdogan has framed his election victory as a victory for the country’s democracy and a win over “terrorist organizations.”  Analysts add that the results point to a deeply divided and polarized Turkey.  Al Jazeera CNN Reuters

Asia and Oceania

Chinese Aircraft Carrier Sails Through Taiwan Strait.  Taiwan’s defense ministry says the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Saturday along with two other ships.  The ministry said it sailed north through the strait and did not violate the unofficial median line that divides the waterway.  The ministry added that eight Chinese fighter jets crossed the strait’s median line on Saturday.  The Chinese defense ministry did not comment on either the Shandong’s transit or jet flights.  Bloomberg France 24 Reuters

Japan Puts Missile Systems on Alert Over Expected North Korean Satellite Launch.  Japan put its missile defenses on alert on Monday in response to North Korea’s announcement that it has completed its first military spy satellite and will launch it in the coming days.  Japan’s defense ministry said it expects North Korea to launch the missile carrying the satellite over Japan’s southwest island chain, as it did in a previous 2016 launch.  The ministry added that the Japanese military will shoot down any missiles that will land in Japanese territory.  Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has urged Pyongyang against the launch, saying that it will violate UN Security Council resolutions against North Korean nuclear and missile activity.  South Korea’s foreign ministry likewise warned North Korea that it will “pay the price and suffer” if it goes ahead with the “illegal” launch.  Analysts say North Korea is seeking to launch the satellite to bolster its surveillance capabilities to help it launch military strikes in wartime.  CNN Nikkei Asia Reuters

South Korea Hosts First Pacific Island Summit.  South Korea is hosting its first summit with leaders of Pacific Island nations.  South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said that the landmark summit will focus on efforts to address climate change and other areas to support the Pacific region.  Australia and New Zealand are the biggest attendees of the forum, joined by a group of small island countries.  Yoon’s administration launched an Indo-Pacific strategy last year, which calls for the fostering of a “free, peaceful and prosperous” Pacific and greater trilateral cooperation with the US and Australia amid concerns about China’s influence in the region.  Reuters

Philippines, US, Japan to Hold First Joint Coast Guard Exercise.  The Philippines, US and Japan will hold their first-ever trilateral coast guard exercises in the South China Sea this week.  Four Philippines vessels and one each from the US and Japan will participate in the drills, and Australia will join as an observer.   The Philippine coast guard says the exercises will take place off Bataan province and focus on search and rescue collaboration and law enforcement and counter-piracy measures, as well as a potential interception exercise involving a vessel carrying weapons of mass destruction.  The drills come amid heightened tensions between the Philippines and China over territorial disputes in the region.  Bloomberg Nikkei Asia Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

Iran Says Arrested ‘Terrorist Team’ Linked to Israel.  Iran’s Judiciary says Iranian authorities arrested a “terrorist team” linked to Israel in northwestern Iran.  Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that the team included 14 individuals “seeking to identify and assassinate various individuals.”  Reuters

Israeli Supercomputer in the Works as AI Demand Soars.  Israel is partnering with Nvidia Corp to build the country’s most powerful artificial intelligence (AI) supercomputer, in a bid to establish Israel as a leading player in the emerging AI space, the company said Monday. Nvidia, the world's most valuable listed chip company, said the supercomputer would be at least partly operational by the end of 2023.  The company also is working with Britain's University of Bristol to build a new supercomputer there.  Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

Uganda Confirms Soldier Casualties from al Shabaab Attack.  Somalia's Islamist group al Shabaab launched a deadly attack on a military base run by Ugandan peacekeepers, resulting in casualties, Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni said late on Saturday. It is not clear how many soldiers were killed or wounded. And yet the statement constitutes the first official admission of losses among Ugandan troops serving in the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia. Al Shabaab has been waging a fight to topple Somalia's Western-backed government since 2006. Reuters

Senegal Hit by Cyber Attack.  A hacking group called Mysterious Team claimed responsibility for distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks that took Senegalese government websites offline on Friday.  The Senegalese government said that it was working to restore the websites; by Saturday the presidency’s site was back online, though other official websites remained offline.  Mysterious Team, which calls its members “cyber warriors from Bangladesh,” announced the attack on Twitter with the hashtag #FreeSenegal which has been used by protesters alleging political repression in Senegal.  Reuters

Sudanese Army Calls on Former Soldiers to Re-Enlist.  Sudan’s army on Friday called on reservists and retired soldiers to re-enlist to strengthen the army in its ongoing conflict with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).  The army says that enlistment is voluntary, though current Sudanese law says that retired soldiers remain as reservists and can therefore be called for compulsory re-enlistment.  The call comes amid a drop in fighting amid ceasefires aimed at facilitating humanitarian aid deliveries across the country, though sporadic clashes and looting continues to block some aid.  The army’s call for re-enlistments also followed Army leader Abdel-Fatteh al-Burhan’s request to the UN for Volker Perthes, UN envoy to Sudan to be replaced.  Reuters

Cyber and Tech

Pentagon Releases Unclassified ‘Fact Sheet’ on New Cyber Strategy.  The Pentagon has released an unclassified “fact sheet” covering the classified cyber strategy it delivered to Congress last week.  According to the fact sheet, the updated strategy draws from “real-world operations” including a number of “defense forward” activities that the DoD has initiated to disrupt malicious cyber activities.  Lessons from Russia’s cyberwarfare that accompanied its invasion of Ukraine also have influenced the Pentagon framework, which previously was updated in 2018.  The strategy lays out four tracks, led off by pursuing an active presence in cyberspace to learn about threat actors and to aggressively disrupt their campaigns.  Another track stresses foreign “hunt forward” operations, the deployment of Cyber Command defensive cyber protection teams to host nations for joint activities to detect and neutralize network threats.  The mutual benefit to Cyber Command and partners is emphasized since both immediate malicious activities can be thwarted while the U.S. gains advance notice of threat actor tools and tactics.  DefenseScoop TheRecord

Chinese Official Says South Korea Agrees to ‘Dialogue’ on Chip Industry Supply Chains.  China’s commerce minister says that talks with South Korea’s trade minister have led to the two countries’ agreement to “strengthen dialogue and cooperation” concerning semiconductor supply chains as well as sanctions and national security.  A Chinese commerce ministry statement said the officials “exchanged views on maintaining the stability of the industrial supply chain and strengthening cooperation in bilateral, regional and multilateral fields.”  South Korea’s statement on the two ministers’ meeting did not specifically mention chips but noted the country’s trade minister’s request that China stabilize supplies of key raw materials.  The meeting between the Chinese and South Korean officials took place alongside the conference of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) nations in Detroit.  Reuters reports that approximately 40 percent of South Korean chip exports go to China, while noting that South Korean chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix are dependent on U.S. technology and equipment.  Reuters

China Closes Hundreds of Thousands of Social Media Accounts in Crackdown on 'Self-Media'.  China’s cyberspace watchdog has deleted nearly a million and a half social media posts deemed to contain misinformation, profiteering ploys, or impersonation of state officials.  The two-month “rectification” campaign uncovered a number of “pronounced problems” leading to the elimination of 67,000 social media accounts.  Of these, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) specifically cited almost 8,000 accounts for "spreading fake news, rumors, and harmful information."  The CAC campaign also singled out nearly 13,000 counterfeit military accounts operating under labels such as "Chinese Red Army Command", "Chinese Anti-terrorist Force" and "Strategic Missile Force."  The CAC described the crackdown as a “heavy blow” against what it described as “self-media,” including the 187,000 accounts punished for impersonating news media businesses, and another 45,000 for "hyping hot issues, clout-chasing and illegal monetization."  Reuters

Portugal Cyber Security Council Expresses Caution on Huawei Role in 5G Network.  Portugal’s cyber security council has provided the basis for a possible ban on 5G equipment, including products from Chinese firm Huawei, due to “high risk” associated with certain components.  If enacted, the ban would represent a policy reversal that severely hampers Huawei’s telecommunications goals in Europe.  Huawei components have already been excluded from 5G networks in Britain, Denmark, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and Germany has announced a review of the use of Chinese components in its 5G network.  Portugal was one of several European nations that resisted U.S. warnings about Huawei technology.  In 2019, Portuguese prime minister António Costa told the Financial Times that Chinese companies had “shown complete respect for our legal framework and the rules of the market”.  But the cyber security council findings suggest a significant shift in Portugal’s previously close relationship with Beijing.  Financial Times

Alibaba Agrees to Collaborative Pact with Tianjin in AI, Cloud Computing.  Chinese tech giant Alibaba has announced a collaborative effort with the Tianjin government to advance development of AI, cloud computing, and “big data” initiatives.  Tianjin mayor Zhong Gong said Alibaba will provide high efficiency, low cost computing resources to support the city’s high-tech ventures, including the company’s participation in “smart city” and industrial Internet initiatives.  Tianjin promised to promote the city’s innovation and enterprise development environment.  Alibaba’s agreement with Tianjin follows on the heels of the central government’s call for the private sector to launch initiatives with local governments to improve the national economy and employment.  South China Morning Post

Growing Number of State Legislatures Adopt Bipartisan Data Privacy Laws.  In the absence of Federal action, a number of state legislatures have generated strong bipartisan support for measures to strengthen data privacy protections.  Montana’s governor recently signed into law a privacy bill that contains an “opt-out provision,” what one of the bill’s sponsors describes as a “button that allows you to not be tracked online.”  Montana is the first Republican-majority legislature to enact such a data option.  The Montana law is modeled after one approved in Connecticut last year which allows for a browser default setting of the opt-out provision.  Montana’s law takes steps against the use of “dark patterns,” referring to tactics in which ads masquerade as legitimate content and dupe consumers into junk fees and signing up for subscriptions that are difficult to understand and subsequently complicated to cancel.  California and Colorado also have approved strong data privacy protections.  The Record

Nvidia CEO Speaks at Computex, Says AI Means Everyone Can Now Be a Programmer.  Nvidia Corp CEO Jensen Huang said on Monday that growth in artificial intelligence means anyone can now be a computer programmer, pointing to a supposed end of the "digital divide". His company has become a key semiconductor company and supplier of advanced chips needed for AI. Speaking at the Computex forum in Taipei, Huang, who is Taiwanese by birth, before moving to the United States, has also said that chip wars with China risk 'enormous damage' to US tech. Reuters

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