Monday, May 22, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
‘De-risk and Diversify:’ Biden, G7 Call for Shift in Relationship with China. President Joe Biden said Sunday that the Group of Seven (G7) countries have agreed on the necessity to decrease trade dependence on China to counter economic coercion from Beijing. Biden maintained that this does not mean the US and its allies are seeking to “decouple from China” but to “de-risk and diversify” supply chains. Biden’s comments came after G7 leaders issued a communique on Saturday that includes a nine-point aligned approach to reduce risks with China, which they emphasized does not aim to harm China’s economy or thwart its growth. The communique also calls for cooperation with China on issues like climate change, while also urging Beijing to help pressure Russia to withdraw from Ukraine and warning China against acts of aggression or coercion in the East and South China Seas, as well as calling for peace in the Taiwan Strait. Officials say the communique demonstrates an effort by the G7 to take a unified approach to China while avoiding escalation and allowing countries to maintain independent relations with Beijing. Biden signaled that he is also seeking to strike this balance between “de-risking” and engaging with China, saying that he expects relations between the US and China to thaw “very shortly” in a shift away from heightened tensions following the Chinese spy balloon incident. Nikkei Asia Reuters Reuters South China Morning Post South China Morning Post
US to Support Ukrainian Training on F-16 Fighter Jets. US national security advisor Jake Sullivan said President Joe Biden told his fellow Group of Seven leaders on Friday that the US will support training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets. Administration officials say the training will occur outside of Ukraine in a European country and take months to complete. Sullivan also said that Biden confirmed the US will allow European countries to transfer F-16s to Kyiv. Ukraine has long sought advanced fighter jets from its Western allies. Several European countries, including the Netherlands and Denmark, have expressed willingness to send F-16s, which Washington needed to approve since the jets have sensitive US technology. So far, US officials have said they have yet to receive formal requests by allies to approve such transfers, but Biden’s confirmation of US backing sets the stage for the requests to be made. However, any F-16s donated to Kyiv are unlikely to arrive in time for the anticipated counter-offensive. (Editor’s Note: Read more about Ukraine and Russia’s reactions below in the Central and Eastern Europe section.) BBC Politico
Biden, McCarthy to Meet Over Debt Ceiling. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy plan to meet Monday at the White House, after conversing again by phone on Sunday in debt ceiling negotiations to avert a catastrophic default. Both sides are confronted with a deadline, as soon as June 1, when the federal government could run out of the ability to pay its bills. GOP lawmakers are calling for significant spending cuts with caps on future spending, while the White House is proposing deficit reduction from taxes. Associated Press
UN Chief Backs Reform of UN Security Council, Bretton Woods. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres on Sunday said that it is time to reform the UN Security Council and the Bretton Woods financial system to align with “the realities of today’s world”. Speaking at the Group of Seven summit in Japan, Guterres said the economic shocks from the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have shown that the current global financial system has “failed to fulfill its core function as a global safety net” and needs to be updated. He added that developing countries are increasingly saying that the current system has failed to adequately support them. His comments come as non-G7 economies, namely China and India, account for a greater percentage of world growth and after the UN Security Council came under fire in April after Russia assumed the rotating presidency of the body despite the Ukraine war. Politico Reuters
Western Europe
UK’s Sunak Calls China Top Security Challenge. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Sunday that China is the “biggest challenge of our age to global security and prosperity,” adding that Beijing has become “increasingly authoritarian at home and assertive abroad.” He did not call for a “de-coupling” of China and the West, but he said he supported moves to “de-risk” supply chains from being too reliant on China. Politico The Hill
Germany Investigating Potential Poisoning of Two Russian Exiles. German police said on Sunday that they are investigating the suspected poisoning of two Russian exiles at a Berlin conference. The two victims – Natalia Arno, director of the US-based NGO Free Russia Foundation, and an unnamed journalist who recently left Russia – attended a meeting hosted by Kremlin detractor Mikhail Khodorkovsky at the end of April. A Russian media group, Agentstvo, reported that the women experienced health issues possibly linked to poisoning after the meeting. Police report that a specialist team trained in handling terrorist threats or politically targeted crimes will examine the case. It is not the first alleged Russian poisoning incident; opposition leader Alexei Navalny was poisoned with a nerve agent in 2020, which was blamed on Russia, and former US ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst was reportedly poisoned before the Ukraine war, though lab results were inconclusive. Al Jazeera Reuters
Greece’s Ruling New Democracy Party Lead Elections, Short of Outright Majority. Greece’s conservative ruling New Democracy party comfortably won elections with 40 percent of the vote on Sunday but did not secure an outright majority in Parliament. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has indicated that instead of seeking a coalition partner from a smaller party, he will seek a second election in a bid to consolidate victory. New Greek electoral rules give bonus seats to the winning party in a second election, making it easier for the party to win to help it form a government. Associated Press
Central and Eastern Europe
Russia Claims Seizure of Bakhmut, Ukraine Maintains City is ‘Not Occupied’. Russia claimed Saturday that it has fully captured the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. The head of Russia’s Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, initially claimed his mercenaries had pushed the last Ukrainian forces out of the city. Prigozhin added that Wagner forces will withdraw from Bakhmut to rest, handing the city over to regular Russian forces. Russia’s defense ministry later backed his claim, saying that Wagner units supported by Russian troops had completed the “liberation of Artyomovsk,” the Russian name for the city. Russian state media later reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin has congratulated the Wagner Group and Russian troops for taking the city. Ukraine has rejected Russia’s claim that it has taken Bakhmut. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said at the Group of Seven meeting in Japan that “Bakhmut is not occupied” by Russian forces. A spokesperson for the Ukrainian army earlier said that Ukrainian soldiers are maintaining positions in the southwest of Bakhmut. And the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky, said that while Ukrainian troops hold an “insignificant” part of the Bakhmut, they are continuing to advance in the area and are close to a “tactical encirclement” of the city. The fall of Bakhmut would mark Russia’s first major victory in its invasion in over 10 months. Bakhmut, which has been reduced to rubble, does not have high strategic significance, but is symbolically important as thousands have died in the battle for the city. Al Jazeera Politico Reuters
Ukraine Claims Strike on Russian Headquarters in Berdiansk. Ukraine’s military claims that its forces hit a Russian headquarters in the occupied city of Berdiansk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on Sunday. The Ukrainian military did not provide details on damage or casualties in the attack. A local Telegram channel says that strikes hit an airfield in the city and that some areas of the city suffered blackouts afterwards. Russian-installed officials in the region claim that Russian missile defenses intercepted Ukrainian long-range missiles that targeted the region. Kyiv Independent
Russia Warns West Over Risks, Escalation from F-16 Pledges to Ukraine. Russia is signaling that the West’s transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine could lead to an escalation of the Ukraine war. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said Saturday that such transfers show that Western countries are “adhering to an escalation scenario” and that the effort will pose “enormous risks” to them. Russia’s Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov echoed this Monday, saying that the transfers will raise questions over NATO’s involvement in the Ukraine war as Ukraine does not currently have the infrastructure or personnel to operate the jet, meaning Kyiv will need Western support to do so. Antonov added that any Ukrainian strike on occupied-Crimea will be considered a strike on Russia and that the US must be “fully aware of the Russian response.” CNN Politico Reuters
Georgia, Russia Resume Direct Flights. Direct flights between Russia and Georgia resumed Friday after Moscow announced the end to a four-year old ban on such flights and removed a decades-old visa requirement for Georgians to travel to Russia. Some Georgian officials have welcomed the development, saying that ethnic Georgians living in Russia will benefit. However, many Georgians are against the resumption of flights, saying that it brings Georgia closer to Russia and thus endangers Tbilisi’s bid to eventually join the EU. Georgia’s pro-European President Salome Zourabichvili has condemned the resumption of flights, calling it “another Russian provocation.” Georgia’s national airline Georgian Airways has reportedly banned Zourabichvili in response. Protests against the resumption of flights escalated on Saturday after Georgian media reported that the family of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has traveled to Georgia despite travel sanctions. BBC CNN Reuters
Asia and Oceania
Taiwan’s Tsai Says ‘War is Not an Option’ Despite China Tensions. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said Saturday that while Taiwan will not bow to China, the island will also not provoke Beijing as “war is not an option.” Marking the seventh anniversary of her administration, Tsai said that “neither side can change the status quo with non-peaceful means” as peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is essential for both Taiwan and the rest of the world, which, she added, is seen in Taiwan’s critical role in global semiconductor supply chains. Beyond the commitment to peace, Tsai touched on her efforts to bolster Taiwan’s self-defense, noting that Taiwan is in discussion with the US for an additional $500 million worth of military aid. Her comments came amid the Group of Seven summit, where democratic leaders agreed on the need to find a peaceful resolution to the Taiwan issue. Reuters
Zelensky Met with World Leaders at G7 Summit. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Japan on Saturday for the Group of Seven summit, meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the latter of whom expressed support for dialogue and diplomacy in an effort to end the war in Ukraine. India, whose trade with Moscow has swelled since Russia’s invasion last year, is thought to be an influential nation in potential peace dealings. The visit coincides with President Biden’s statement to the G7 leaders on Friday, approving joint training programs for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 jets. Reuters
China Lashes Out at Japan, Britain After G7 Summit. China’s Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong summoned Japanese Ambassador to China Hideo Tarumi on Sunday to protest “hype around China-related issues” at the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Hiroshima, Japan. Sun said that Japan had collaborated with G7 countries to “smear and attack China, grossly interfering in China’s internal affairs.” Separately, China’s embassy in Britain also urged London to stop slandering China, appearing to respond to British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s comments at the summit that China is the top security challenge for the world. Chinese state newspaper Global Times echoed this backlash, saying that the G7 summit was an “anti-China workshop” that demonstrated US efforts to “weave an anti-China net in the Western world.” The G7 summit focused on several issues related to China, specifically regarding economic concerns and the Taiwan issue. Reuters
China’s Advanced DF-27 Hypersonic Missile Allegedly in Service for Years. A Chinese military source says that China’s DF-27 intermediate-range ballistic missile – one of its most advanced hypersonic weapons – has been in service for over four years. The DF-27 – which can reach as far as Hawaii – has yet to be officially unveiled but featured in footage circulated on Chinese social media last August. It was also mentioned in US intelligence documents that were leaked earlier this year, which assessed that the missile has a “high probability” of being able to penetrate US missile defenses. The source confirmed this information and said that China’s People’s Liberation Army is carrying out “constant tests” of the missile. The source also said that the DF-27 is part of a Chinese deterrence strategy that is not aimed at targeting US Pacific States, like Alaska and Hawaii, but rather major US bases in places like Japan and Guam. The source added that the DF-27’s longer-range capability helps the PLA arsenal pursue this strategy without needing to station missiles in potentially vulnerable coastal positions. Experts say that the US has reportedly been aware of the development of the DF-27 and has responded in part by overhauling defenses in Guam, including by adding Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems, which have stronger altitude interception capabilities to better deal with hypersonic weapons. South China Morning Post The Cipher Brief
US to Renew Strategic Pacts with Two Key Pacific Island States. Joseph Yun, US Special Presidential Envoy for Compact Negotiations, says that the US will sign new strategic pacts with Palau and Micronesia early next week and hopes to do so with the Marshall Islands as well in the coming weeks. Yun said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will sign the Palau agreement with Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr. at a summit in Papua New Guinea on Monday, followed by the signing of the Micronesia pact on Tuesday in Micronesia. The new pacts are renewals of Compact of Free Association (COFA) accords which were first reached in the 1980s and give the US access to strategic areas of the Pacific in exchange for defense and economic support of the three island states. Renewing the COFAs has been a priority for the Biden administration as part of efforts to counter Chinese influence in the region. Reuters
Germany’s Scholz Visits South Korea. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited South Korea on Sunday following the Group of Seven summit in Japan. Scholz met with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol primarily to finalize a defense cooperation agreement aimed at protecting military secrets and bolstering their countries’ defense supply chains. Scholz additionally said he called on South Korea to invest more in Germany’s chip industry to help Berlin reduce trade reliance on China. And during a trip to the border between South Korea and North Korea, he urged Pyongyang to halt all weapons testing to ensure regional peace and stability. Deutsche Welle South China Morning Post
Middle East and Northern Africa
Zelensky Calls Out Some Arab Nations for ‘Turning Blind Eye’ to Russian Invasion. Ahead of the Group of Seven summit in Japan, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Jeddah, Saudi Arabia to attend an Arab League summit on Friday. Speaking at the meeting, Zelensky described the Ukraine war as a fight by Ukrainians for their independence and sovereignty against colonizers and imperialists, appearing to invoke similar experiences in the Arab world against occupation. Zelensky also called out some Arab nations for succumbing to Russian influence and “turning a blind eye” to Moscow’s invasion and specifically criticized Iran, which is not a member of the Arab League, for supplying drones to Russia for use in Ukraine. Syria, which was just readmitted to the Arab League, is the only Arab nation to openly support Russia since the start of the Ukraine war, but other Arab countries have maintained strong relations with Moscow amid the conflict. For example, host nation Saudi Arabia has committed $400 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine and has pledged to work as a mediator to end the conflict, but it has also refrained from sanctioning Russia to maintain neutrality. BBC
Iran Says Israel-Linked ‘Terrorist’ Group Arrested on Iraq Border. Iranian intelligence minister Esmail Khatib told Iranian media on Sunday that authorities arrested a “terrorist” group linked to Israel on Iran’s western border with Iraq on Sunday. Khatib said that the Iraqi government has pledged to tighten its borders following the incident, and he also called on the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government to help ensure security in the area. Reuters Times of Israel
Iran Asserts Ability to Defend Regional Waters, Rejects Western Naval Presence. The chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, Mohammad Bagheri, said Sunday that Iran is fully capable of securing regional waters in cooperation with its neighbors. His comments came in response to a tour by the Middle East-based navy commanders of France, the UK and the US in the Strait of Hormuz, which was meant as a show of unity against Tehran and a sign of oversight of regional waterways. Bagheri said the tour was inappropriate as the region is thousands of miles from their territorial waters, asserting that “we have no need for foreigners” to secure the region. Tensions in the region are high following the Iranian navy’s seizure of several ships in the region, which the US views as illegal. Al Jazeera
Sub Saharan Africa
Blinken, Sudan's Burhan Discuss Talks to Reach Ceasefire. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Twitter Saturday that he had spoken with General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the Sudanese Army about "ongoing talks to reach an effective short-term ceasefire," in order to allow for humanitarian aid and necessary services for the people. A deal for said ceasefire was signed Saturday between rival factions and is due to take effect Monday evening, though fighting and air strikes were still reported in the Khartoum capital area on Sunday. Reuters
Cyber & Tech
Europe Data Regulator Fines Meta $1.3 Billion Over Data Transfers. The European Union’s main privacy regulator has fined Meta 1.2 billion euros ($1.3 billion) for its handling of European user information. Ireland’s Data Protection Commissioner (DPC) imposed the fine over Meta’s data transfers following a 2020 EU court ruling that invalidated an EU-US data transfer agreement. The DPC added that Meta has five months to stop transferring European users’ data to the US. Meta says it will appeal the ruling and is calling for a new pact that will facilitate the safe transfer of European data to the US to be agreed on within five months to ensure that it does not have to suspend Facebook services in Europe. Reuters
China Cites ‘Security Risks’ in Banning Micron Products from Critical Infrastructure Firms. China’s cyberspace agency has banned Chinese firms from buying Micron products on the grounds that they pose “significant security risks.” The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) in the wake of its security review said Micron technology posed risks to “China's critical information infrastructure supply chain.” U.S. officials, including members of a U.S. congressional select committee on competition with China, declined to comment on the development. A Micron spokesperson said that the company is “assessing our next steps” and looks forward “to engage discussions with Chinese authorities.” An expert on Chinese technology consulted by the Financial Times observed that “this could be really bad for Micron,” depending on China’s definition of critical information infrastructure. Wall Street Journal Reuters Financial Times
G7 Summit Advocates Global ‘Guardrails’ for AI Development. Leaders of the G7, meeting at a summit in Hiroshima, called for “guardrails” on artificial intelligence to be developed in the aftermath of rapid advances that have underscored both the benefits and the risks of the technology. While acknowledging that national approaches to AI vary, the G7 leaders said in a statement that R&D should be "in line with our shared democratic values." European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, speaking on behalf of the group, said "we want AI systems to be accurate, reliable, safe and non-discriminatory, regardless of their origin." The summit leaders agreed on the creation of a “Hiroshima AI process” that would provide a forum to discuss issues raised by generative AI such as copyrights and disinformation. The process is expected to begin by the end of the year. Financial Times Reuters
Japan Digital Minister Warns of AI Threat to Western Elections. Taro Kono, Japan’s minister for digital affairs, warned of a coming wave of challenges to Western democracies due to the “very disruptive” forces unleashed by generative AI. Kono told the Financial Times that Japan, Britain, and the U.S. could be targeted by “malicious elements” in forthcoming elections. Kono noted that while misinformation spread in previous U.S. elections was generated by humans, “the sheer volume” produced by AI in subsequent campaigns could be overwhelming. In light of that threat, Kono warned “all governments need to consider how we can keep the trust of the people towards democracy.” Kono also noted the difficulties in reaching international consensus on the regulation of AI. “We’re not going to have one set of rules concerning data transfer globally in a very short time,” he said, but he underscored the need for “interoperability” as nations continue to deal with the issue. Financial Times
Beijing Invites Leading Chinese Tech Firms To Accelerate Advanced AI. The Beijing information technology bureau has announced an “Innovation Partnership Program” to enlist leading Chinese S&T firms in a drive to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI), the next step in advanced AI technology. The Beijing bureau and two other agencies have asked enterprises including Baidu and Alibaba to assist in the acceleration of large language models and related technologies. The plan also urges advances in chip-making processes as well as enhancements to Beijing’s computing power supply. The Beijing initiative plans to implement 10 or more commercial large language models in key scenarios each year. South China Morning Post
China Aims To Accelerate Development of Low-Earth-Orbit Satellite Constellation. The success and unforeseen military applications in Ukraine of the Starlink satellite Internet network have prompted China to accelerate its own plans for a low-earth orbit satellite constellation. Chinese military researchers have cited the increased crowding of key orbits as reason for urgency in advancing China’s plans. A private Beijing-based firm, Tianbing Technology, has plans to develop rockets capable of deploying up to 60 satellites per launch, similar to the payload of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launch vehicles. China launched 182 satellites last year, less than one-tenth of those deployed from the U.S. The chief of U.S. Space Force, Gen. Chance Saltzman, told Congress earlier this year that China has more than 700 operational satellites in orbit, half of which are used by China’s to track U.S. forces worldwide. A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) last year noted that countries such as Pakistan and Egypt that receive digital infrastructure services from Beijing may choose to adopt Chinese satellite internet into their networks. Wall Street Journal
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