Monday, May 15, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
Drone Strike that Killed US Contractor in Syria was Launched from Iraq. The Wall Street Journal reports that the March 23 drone strike that killed a US contractor in Syria was launched from Iraq. The attack was claimed by the militia group Liwa al-Ghaliboun or Brigade of the Victors, which posted a video of the drone launch. US officials suspect the group could be a front for Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, an Iraq-based group that the US State Department has designated as a terrorist organization. A representative for the group has denied it was responsible, though it says it did support the attack. The March 23 attack resulted in retaliatory air strikes against targets in Syria by US forces, a move that prompted Iranian militias to target other US locations with rocket and drone attacks. A person familiar with the exchange says that Iran communicated through diplomatic channels that it would halt further attacks if the US agreed to de-escalate. News of the March 23 attack coming from Iraq highlights the challenges facing the Biden administration in the middle east. A US official says that the US policy has to focus on holding Iran accountable and not to become involved in ‘tit-for-tat’ exchanges, but some analysts have criticized the Biden administration for failing to hold the Iraqi government accountable. Wall Street Journal
G7 Summit to Focus on China's ‘Economic Coercion’ & New Sanctions on Moscow. Leaders from the Group of Seven (G7) countries are meeting in Japan this week for a summit. A US official says that the meeting will focus on economic coercion by Beijing, a topic that is expected to be included in a joint communique following the meeting. The main joint statement will include a specific and direct reference to China, a measure the US is pushing for. G7 leaders also plan to introduce new sanctions on Moscow that target the Russian energy and export sector and seek to impose further restrictions on Russia’s ability to fund its war in Ukraine. A reversal of sanctions policy could also be implemented which would automatically ban certain categories of goods, unless they are on a specific approved list, a move that would make it more difficult for Russia to exploit gaps in sanctions. Reuters The Japan Times Deutsche Welle
Honduras to Discuss Trade Agreement with China. Honduras will soon open up discussions with China about a possible “free trade” deal, according to Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina. After switching diplomatic recognition from Taiwan in favor of Beijing in March to access greater Chinese investment, the relationship between Honduras and China has deepened significantly. Reina said a potential trade deal with China will include agricultural exports as well as potential debt alleviation. Reuters
Western Europe
Zelenskyy Makes Surprise Visit to UK. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise visit to the UK on Monday to meet with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. In a tweet, Zelensky said that he and Sunak met to hold “substantive negotiations” on further British military aid for Ukraine. Following the meeting, Zelenskyy reiterated the need for a “jet coalition” to get Ukraine the war planes it has long requested. Sunak did not commit to sending such military aircraft to Kyiv, though he reiterated a previous promise to help train Ukrainian fighter pilots. Downing Street later confirmed the UK has “no plans” to supply fighter jets to Ukraine, noting that Ukrainian pilots have favored training on F-16s. Zelenskyy’s visit to the UK came days after the UK announced they would supply Ukraine with long-range missiles, making them the first ally country to do so. Sunak said that the two will discuss what more can be done to support Ukraine during the meeting. BBC
Germany Pledges $2.7 Billion in New Ukraine Aid, Germany’s Defense Ministry on Saturday announced it is committing a new aid package for Ukraine worth $2.7 billion. The ministry said the package will include 20 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 30 Leopard-1 tanks and four IRIS-T-SLM air defense systems. German news outlet Der Spiegel added that the package, which it called Germany's biggest for Ukraine to date, will also include 15 Gepard anti-aircraft tanks, hundreds of drones, new anti-aircraft and artillery ammunition, and armored combat and logistics vehicles. The ministry announced the package ahead of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Sunday visit to Berlin, where he thanked Germany for its support and emphasized that the expected Ukrainian offensive will work towards liberating areas occupied by Russian forces, rather than attacking Russia itself. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany will continue to support Ukraine on top of the 17 billion euros it has already provided in bilateral aid. After Zelenskyy’s visit to Berlin, he and Scholz traveled to the western German city of Aachen where Zelenskyy was awarded the International Charlemagne Prize. Associated Press CNN Deutsche Welle
France Pledges Light Tanks During Zelenskyy Visit to Paris. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy followed his trip to Germany with a visit to Paris on Sunday. In a joint statement with French President Emmanuel Macron, the two leaders announced that France will provide Ukraine with dozens of additional armored vehicles and light tanks, including AMX-10RCs, as well as further support for Ukrainian air defense systems. The two sides also agreed on the need to enhance collective sanctions on Russia. Al Jazeera
Zelenskyy Travels to Rome to Meet Pope Francis, Italian PM Meloni. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Rome on Saturday to meet with Pope Francis and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. In his meeting with Meloni, Zelenskyy thanked Italy for its support in countering Russia’s invasion. Meloni pledged continued aid, saying Italy is “betting on Ukraine's victory,” and reiterated support for Ukraine’s membership in the EU. At the Vatican, Zelenskyy said he thanked Pope Francis for his “personal attention” to Ukrainian suffering during the conflict and also urged him to issue a stronger condemnation of Russian aggression and join Kyiv’s peace plan. The Vatican said it will continue to push for peace and work on further “humanitarian gestures,” which officials said related to returning Ukrainian children who were reportedly forcibly moved by Russia. Reuters Deutsche Welle
EU and US to Increase Coordination on Technology Export Controls. The US and the EU are expected to announce new and coordinated measures on export controls for critical technologies at a meeting in Sweden later this month. The gathering will be the fourth meeting of the EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council (TTC). The two sides will address non-market practices, economic coercion and limit investment that supports technologies of ‘strategic rivalries’, according to a draft statement reviewed by Reuters. Reuters
Central & Eastern Europe
Moscow Reacts to the Latest UK Aid Package to Ukraine Amid Battlefield Gains by Kyiv. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitri Peskov says that Moscow views a new UK aid package to Ukraine “extremely negatively”. Peskov says the move by the UK will not have a significant impact on the “course of the special military operation” but that it will lead to more destruction and retaliation. This comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in the UK to meet with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Sunak is expected to announce the military aid package that includes hundreds of new air defense missiles and unmanned systems. Last week media reports revealed that the UK had provided Ukraine with the “Storm Shadow” missile system, a move that a US official called a ‘game changer’ with the missile’s 250-kilometer range. This comes amid reports of more Ukrainian military gains around the embattled city of Bakhmut, and while Kyiv says the success of its military against Russia shows that it can achieve success, that the situation in Bakhmut remains “difficult”. CNN Reuters Wall Street Journal New York Times
Ukraine Reportedly Downs Four Russian Military Aircraft in Border Region. Russian news outlet Kommersant reports that Ukrainian forces downed two Russian fighter jets and two military helicopters on Saturday in the Bryansk region, near the northeastern Ukrainian border. The report said the Russian military aircraft were set to conduct air raids on Ukraine’s Chernihiv region but were “shot down almost simultaneously” by apparent Ukrainian air defenses before reaching their targets. Kommersant did not provide evidence for the alleged incident, but several Russian pro-war military bloggers also reported on the attack. Russian state news agency TASS said only two aircraft crashed in the region; the TASS report said that a Su-34 jet crashed, without specifying a cause, along with a helicopter that suffered an engine fire. The Russian Defense Ministry has not formally commented on the matter. Ukraine has not confirmed whether its forces were involved, but a Ukrainian Air Force official said that a Russian “strike air group” had attempted to attack Ukraine in a region that frequently sees such attacks, but that in this case the Russian aircraft “ran into trouble”. The Ukrainian official added that it was a “black day” for Russian aviation. Reuters CNN
Russia Says Two Military Commanders Killed While Defending Against Ukraine Assaults. Russia’s Defense Ministry announced Sunday that two of its military commanders were killed in eastern Ukraine while facing Ukrainian attacks. The ministry added that Ukrainian forces launched attacks on Bakhmut over the last 24 hours but that all had been “repelled” and that Russian troops captured areas north and south of the city. Reuters
Wagner Head Allegedly Offered Russian Troop Locations for Ukraine Withdrawal. The head of Russia’s Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin allegedly offered in January to give the Ukrainian military information on positions of Russian troops in Bakhmut in exchange for the withdrawal of some Ukrainian forces from the city, according to documents from the Discord Leaks. Prigozhin purportedly made the offer through contacts in Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, which the documents say he has been in communication with throughout the Ukraine war, including through in-person meetings in an unspecified country in Africa. Beyond Bakhmut, the documents say Prigozhin informed Ukraine of times of low morale amongst Russian forces and advised assaults on the border of occupied-Crimea. Anonymous sources in Ukraine’s government confirmed Prigozhin has been in contact with Ukrainian military intelligence, though his offers had been rejected since Kyiv doubted the sincerity behind his proposals. The documents suggest that Moscow is aware of Prigozhin’s contacts with Ukraine, and Prigozhin himself appeared to confirm such communications “in Africa” in a Telegram post on Sunday. However, neither Prigozhin or the Kremlin have commented on his alleged offers to disclose Russian troop positions in Bakhmut, which, if true, would mark a new level to the friction between the Wagner Group and Russian Defense Ministry. Prigozhin denied the report and in a post on his Telegram channel called the allegation “nonsense”. He accused residents of Moscow’s Rublyovka suburb, reportedly home for many of the business and political elite, of orchestrating an attack on him. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov called the allegations against Prigozhin a “hoax”. Washington Post Reuters
Russian Crime Agency Head Suggests Nationalizing the Economy. Alexander Bastrykin, the head of Russia’s Investigative Committee, suggested nationalizing key sectors of the Russian economy in response to the War in Ukraine. The Kremlin has already partially done this in a number of areas after Western firms pulled out of or scaled back their presence in the Russian economy following the war. Reuters
IAEA Chief Hoping to Present Zaporizhzhia Deal by End of Month. Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is expected to propose to the UN Security Council an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to protect the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, according to four unnamed diplomats. Grossi has worked for several months to secure an agreement between the two countries that would reduce the risk of a catastrophic nuclear accident occurring as the war continues. Ukraine is currently preparing a military offensive in the region that the plant, which is under Russian occupation, is located in. Reuters
Turkish Presidential Election Goes to Runoff. The Turkey presidential election will be decided in a run-off on May 28 as no candidate has officially won enough votes for an outright victory. Election authorities say incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan received only 49.51% of the vote, just short of an overall majority. His chief challenger, opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, reportedly won 44.88% of the vote. The third, right-wing candidate Sinan Ogan garnered more than 5% of the vote and has not said who he will endorse in the upcoming run-off. Al Jazeera Associated Press
Asia & Oceania
Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Warns Neighbors to Keep Distance From US. Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang is warning South and Central Asian countries to maintain distance from the US through “strategic autonomy.” Qin made the warning on Friday during a visit to India – his second in two months – for a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. At the end of the summit, Qin called on the bloc to support “safeguarding sovereignty” and oppose interference by external forces to stage “color revolutions.” Experts say Qin’s remarks appear to be most pointed at India, which has had tense relations with China over border disputes and has remained a swing nation in the US-China rivalry. Beyond great power competition, Qin emphasized the importance of combating the “three evil forces” of terrorism, ethnic separatism, and religious extremism; the SCO meeting echoed focus on concerns about terrorism and regional instability, particularly related to the security situation in Afghanistan. South China Morning Post
Philippines Installs Buoys in South China Sea. The Coast Guard of the Philippines has installed five navigational buoys inside its economic zone around the highly disputed Spratly Islands amidst increased Chinese aggression in the region. China, which claims sovereignty of most of the South China Sea and often deploys military and fishing vessels in the area, has strengthened its presence in the region, prompting the US and Philippines to establish deeper military ties. A Philippine Coast Guard spokesman said Manila’s move to deploy the buoys emphasizes the nation’s commitment to “protect its maritime borders” and “contribute to the safety of maritime trade.” Reuters
Top Physicist Leaves UK to Join Chinese Hypersonic Program. Zhang Yonghao, a top physicist who has worked in the UK for over 20 years has resigned to join China’s new national hypersonic laboratory in Beijing. Zhang, who has studied superfast fluid mechanics, will join the laboratory at the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Mechanics to lead work on aerothermodynamics simulations for hypersonic vehicle development. Zhang joined the laboratory immediately after resigning from the University of Edinburgh in October 2022, and it is not immediately clear why he left. His decision to return to China comes amid Western scrutiny of academic ties to China over concerns about national security and intellectual property theft. South China Morning Post
Hong Kong to Remain Caught in US-China Rivalry, Former UN Official Warns. A former top UN official said Friday that while it is unlikely the US and China will go to war, the rivalry between the two countries will likely result in further impacts on Hong Kong over the next decade. Speaking at a Singapore forum, former president of the UN Security Council Kishore Mahbubani said that Washington and Beijing agree that it will be a lose-lose situation if they enter nuclear war, adding that the only scenario where he sees such a conflict happening is if Taiwan declared independence, which he warned the island against. While Mahbubani said this hot conflict is less likely to happen, Hong Kong will still be “kicked around” like a “football” from possible sanctions such as US seizure of Hong Kong reserves. Mahbubani said it is in Hong Kong’s interest to attract US investment and “educate” Americans who have been “misinformed” about the city, while also addressing issues causing internal friction in the city like home ownership. US and Western businesses have moved to leave Hong Kong amid Beijing’s tightening grip on the city, seen in its crackdown on anti-government protests and strict Covid-19 policies. South China Morning Post
Thailand Opposition Win Election Over Military-Aligned Parties. Thailand’s opposition won a landmark victory over the country’s military-aligned parties in elections on Sunday. The two main opposition parties – the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP) and populist Pheu Thai Party – won around 290 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives. Pita Limjaroenrat, the head of Move Forward, has proposed a coalition of six parties that would control around 310 seats to form a new government, with him as prime minister. While the vote points to a rejection of the military-backed parties which have ruled Thailand for almost a decade, there is still uncertainty over what the next government will look like since the military-appointed 250-member Senate will also have a role in approving the next premier. Al Jazeera Nikkei Asia Reuters
Former Pakistan PM Khan Granted Bail. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was released on bail for two weeks following a ruling from the Pakistani Supreme Court on Friday that his recent arrest on corruption charges was illegal. Khan left the court under heavy security and reportedly headed for his home in Lahore. The development comes after Khan’s arrest sparked deadly protests nationwide. Reuters
Middle East & Northern Africa
Islamic Jihad Agrees to Cairo-Brokered Truce with Israel. An Egyptian-brokered truce between Israel and the Islamic Jihad militant group went into effect Saturday night. The deal was welcomed by the Israeli government which thanked Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi for the work to broker the deal. Israel says that ‘quiet’ will be met with quiet but that it reserved the right to defend itself if attacks continue. A spokesman for Islamic Jihad says the group will also abide by the truce as long as Israel does. Reuters
US to Strengthen Defensive Stance in Gulf after Iran’s Aggression Against Tankers. The US Department of Defense will strengthen its security posture in the Arabian Gulf following Iran’s increased harassment of and interference with commercial ships in the region, according to officials. The US Navy’s Fifth Fleet said it will work with allies and partners in the region to increase rotation of ships and aircraft patrols, namely around the Strait of Hormuz, to protect against Iranian threats. A US Central Command spokesperson echoed this, saying Washington will work with regional partners on ensuring the “safety and freedom of navigation for all nations.” The move to increase the US military posture in the region comes after Iran seized two oil tankers in Gulf waters earlier this month. Reuters
Sub Saharan Africa
South Africa Denies Transferring Weapons to Russia. South Africa has rejected accusations that the country has given weapons to Russia amid the Ukraine war, which would violate South Africa’s stated neutrality in the conflict. The US ambassador to South Africa, Reuben Brigety made the accusation on Thursday, claiming that a Russian ship under US sanctions received arms shipments from a South African port in December. South Africa launched an investigation into the matter after Brigety made the allegations. South African Communications Minister Mondli Gungubele, who chaired an arms control commission when the alleged arms transfer took place, said the South African government has not approved any such shipment and that any transfer that may have taken place was illegal. The accusation caused significant disruptions to South Africa’s currency over fears that the country would be hit by sanctions related to the Ukraine war. In response, the South African foreign ministry summoned Brigety to express “utter displeasure” with his remarks. The ministry said he “apologized unreservedly” for his comments, and he later tweeted that he has sought to correct “misimpressions” from his remarks. The US State Department later said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with South African foreign minister Naledi Pandor to express Washington’s commitment to maintain cooperation. Reuters
Cyber & Tech
Twitter Limits Content Available to Turkish Domestic Audience as Election Takes Place. Twitter has announced that it has restricted some access to tweets in the Turkish domestic market over the weekend in which the hotly contested presidential election is taking place. Twitter announced Friday night that it was moving “to restrict access to some content in Turkey,” adding that the removed data would be available elsewhere in the world. Critics say that the Twitter action is “ceding” to demands from the incumbent, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Twitter explained its action, stating “in response to legal process and to ensure Twitter remains available to the people of Turkey, we have taken action to restrict access to some content in Turkey today.” Wall Street Journal Washington Post
Former Executive at TikTok Parent Company Says Communist Party Accessed U.S. Data. A former executive at TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, alleges in a lawsuit that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had “supreme access” to all TikTok data through a special office it maintained inside the company. The former employee, Yintao Yu, says that this backdoor channel remained active even after access to U.S. user data was blocked from engineers in China. ByteDance has dismissed the allegations, describing them as “baseless.” Yu’s complaint in a California court filing claimed that “the (CCP) maintained supreme access to all the company data, even data stored in the United States.” Axios Bloomberg
Ransomware Attacks on Healthcare Sector Surged in April. The Record has released data from its latest ransomware tracker report indicating that attacks on healthcare organizations surged in April. According to the report, 31 healthcare organizations experienced ransomware breaches during April, eclipsing the record of 29 set in December 20221. A Recorded Future ransomware expert said "we’ve gone from one healthcare ransomware attack a month, to a week to now more than one day." Allan Liska noted that threats against the healthcare sector are “a huge problem,” but defenses have thus far fallen short against the attacks. Cyberattacks that are not identified by victims as ransomware attempts do not appear in the tracking database. The Record offered as examples a cyberattack on an Ontario hospital that delayed scheduled and non-urgent care, and a "network disruption" that disabled IT access at an Illinois hospital. The Record
Europe Planning Black Sea Internet Cable To Reduce Reliance on Russia. An undersea Internet cable intended to improve connectivity with Georgia and lessen dependence on cables transiting Russia is being planned by the European Commission. The 1100 km cable will provide connectivity between EU member states and the Caucasus beneath international waters in the Black Sea. While the cable project already was envisioned in 2021, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the following year added to the motivation to move ahead in order to avoid dependence, as one observer said, on “connections that are not secure or stable.” Financial Times
South Korean Spies Used YouTube To Communicate with North Korean Contacts. Four South Korean trade union leaders charged with spying for North Korea communicated with North Korean contacts through coded remarks on YouTube videos. According to prosecutors, the four senior members of a trade union confederation photographed military bases and spread anti-U.S. and anti-Japan messages. Meetings with North Korean handlers in Cambodia and Vietnam were arranged through a YouTube video with specific poses used to communicate information. South Korea’s National Security Act includes provisions for capital punishment or life sentences in cases in which military or state secrets are given to North Korea. TheRecord
Swedish Infosec Firm Says Russian Hackers Posing as Anonymous Sudan Activists. A variety of Swedish organizations, including airports, hospitals, and banks, have experienced distributed denial-of -service (DDoS) attacks since February supposedly at the hands of a hacking group calling itself Anonymous Sudan. The attacks claim to be retaliation for the burning of a Koran in front of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm earlier this year. However, TrueSec, one of Sweden’s leading cybersecurity firms, said that data from the attacks indicates a possible alternate source – a “well organized unit of Russians” well versed in Swedish politics. A TrueSec researcher said the attacks carried out under the Anonymous Sudan label are in fact linked to Russia and intended to cause fissures in Swedish society between the majority population and the country’s Muslim minority. An additional motivation, TrueSec concludes, is to reinforce Turkey’s current refusal to support Sweden’s bid for NATO membership. The researchers have not determined if Anonymous Sudan is a Russian government operation or carried out by pro-Russia hackers. Bloomberg
Swiss Industrial Technology Giant Confirms ‘IT Security Incident’. The Swiss technology company, ABB, has confirmed that its systems experienced an “IT security incident” on May 7 that is impacting facilities around the world. Reports indicate that the Black Basta ransomware gang was responsible for the attack against ABB’s Windows Active Directory. An ABB spokesperson said the company is taking “containment measures” that have led to disruptions of some operations, but added that the “vast majority” of facilities are up and running. ABB’s worldwide operations provide industrial technology to both commercial and government organizations, including U.S. Federal agencies. The company, whose products include electrical and robotics equipment, declined to say if ransomware was involved in the breach. The Record
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