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Monday, March 6, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

US Raises Risks of Chinese Cargo Cranes.  The Wall Street Journal is out with a report on security concerns over Chinese-made equipment at US ports, namely ship-to-shore cargo cranes made by Chinese manufacturer ZPMC.  The report details how US defense and intelligence officials are concerned that the cranes can be used to collect information on shipments related to US military operations or could be remotely accessed to disrupt the flow of goods.  China’s Embassy in Washington said concerns about the cranes “paranoia-driven” and are aimed at blocking economic cooperation between China and the US.  Suspicion of the Chinese-made cranes is the latest show of US scrutiny of Chinese equipment and comes after heightened concerns of Chinese surveillance in the wake of the spy balloon incident.  Wall Street Journal

Cuban President Meets with Russian Oil Firm CEO. Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel met with Igor Sechin, CEO of the Russian oil firm Rosneft on Saturday according to a Twitter statement from Diaz-Canel’s office. The meeting comes amid fuel shortages on the island that have forced gas stations to temporarily shut down and others to have hours-long lines. According to the statement, Sechin assured Diaz-Canel that any matters related to Cuba, “Putin supervises them directly and personally.” Reuters

Western Europe

EU Considers Landmark Joint Military Procurement Program to Support Ukraine.  The EU is expected to discuss plans for a landmark agreement on a joint arms procurement program to aid Ukraine.  EU defense ministers will meet this week to discuss the arrangement, which will reportedly start with the supply of 155-millimeter ammunition for Kyiv.  The defense minister of Estonia, Hanno Pevkur, told Reuters that the main outstanding issue is how to pay for the joint aid.  Other issues include deciding how much munitions to buy and at what cost, as well as determining when the ammunition will reach Ukraine.  Pevkur added that he is urging EU members to allocate new money to the initiative rather than relying on funds already set aside for Ukraine aid. If a deal is reached it will be seen as a major step towards EU integration on military issues.  Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Wagner Head Calls for Ammunition to Maintain Bakhmut Attack.  The head of Russia’s Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said Sunday that his mercenaries’ progress near the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut is at risk if they do not receive promised resupplies of ammunition.  Prigozhin said that without the ammunition, Russian front lines near the city could collapse in what he said would either be a major bureaucratic failure or a “betrayal.”  Ukraine’s military says defenses in Bakhmut are holding, though there is heavy fighting and Ukrainian resupply routes are becoming increasingly limited.  Ukrainian officials also report that Russia’s 155th Brigade in the town of Vuhledar, near Bakhmut, are refusing to attack after suffering heavy losses.  US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Monday that even if Russia were to seize Bakhmut, it would be a largely symbolic victory rather than a strategic or operational success that would indicate a shift in the war in Moscow’s favor.  The Russian defense ministry did not address the situation in Bakhmut but did say that a Russian strike hit a command center of Ukraine’s Azov Regiment in the Zaporizhzhia region on Sunday.  Al Jazeera Reuters UK Ministry of Defense Twitter

Russian Defense Minister Visits Ukraine Frontlines.  The Russian Defense Ministry on Saturday released footage of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu making a rare visit to occupied Ukraine.  The ministry said Shoigu met with Russian troops and inspected a command post in the Donbas region, without specifying where.  The overall commander of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, General Valery Gerasimov, was not with Shoigu on his visit.  CNN Deutsche Welle

Russia Downs Three Missiles Launched at Belgorod Region.  The governor of Russia’s southern Belgorod region said that Russian air defenses shot down three missiles launched at the region on Monday.  Debris from the downed missiles reportedly injured at least one person and damaged power lines in the region.  The governor did not say who he suspected of launching the missiles, though he has accused Ukraine of launching previous attacks on Belgorod, which borders Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region.  Reuters

Ukraine Orders Partial Evacuation of Liberated Kupiansk City.  Ukraine ordered the partial evacuation of the northeastern city of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region on Friday.  The order directs families with children and people “with limited mobility” to leave the city due to Russian shelling attacks.  Russia took Kupiansk early in its invasion of Ukraine, but Ukrainian forces liberated the city, which has important railway infrastructure, in September.  BBC 

Five Dead Following Armenia and Azerbaijan Border Clash. At least five people are dead following a violent altercation along the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the weekend. According to statements released from both sides, three of the dead were from Armenia, and two were from Azerbaijan. According to Azerbaijan, the flare up occurred after soldiers had gone to check vehicles at the border crossing that were suspected of carrying weapons. According to Armenia, Azerbaijani forces were the first to open fire.  Deutsche Welle The Defense Post

Estonian PM’s Party Wins General Election, Defeats Far Right. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas’s center-right Reform Party defeated the far-right opposition party EKRE in the country’s general election over the weekend. Reform won with 31.6% of the vote, while EKRE received 16%. EKRE, which campaigned off of multiple far-right platforms including stopping all arms exports to Ukraine, has accused the election of being stolen. Kallas now must form a coalition with one or more of the parties in order to stay in power.  France24

Asia

China's National People's Congress Starts Annual Meeting 

China opened the annual meeting of its National People’s Congress on Sunday.  This year’s meeting is set to focus on economic and technology policy and will be marked by the departure of top economic-reform officials like Premier Li Keqiang.

China Sets 5% Economic Growth Target.  China set its GDP growth target for the year at 5 percent.  The new target comes after China’s economy only expanded 3 percent last year, marking Beijing’s slowest growth rate in decades.  Analysts say the relatively modest goal for 2023 aims to maintain steady post-Covid recovery and allow new economic officials an easier chance at success in their first year in office.  Reuters Wall Street Journal

Beijing to Increase Military Spending by 7.2 Percent.  China will increase its defense budget by 7.2 percent this year.  The figure marks a small increase from last year’s 7.1 percent rise and another military budget that exceeds projected GDP growth.  Premier Li added that the boost in defense spending should be backed by Chinese forces increasing combat readiness as Beijing also pursues an “independent” and “peaceful” foreign policy.  CNN Reuters South China Morning Post Wall Street Journal

China to Focus on Science and Tech Development.  Regarding technology, Premier Li reiterated on Sunday that China should build stronger technology strength and self-reliance and better leverage state resources for scientific development and critical technology breakthroughs.  China’s science and technology minister Wang Zhigang echoed Li’s comments in an interview with state media, saying that China will tie economic growth with science and technology development.  Wang highlighted in his interview plans to expand China’s 5G network and develop 6G technologies.  The focus on supporting China’s technology sector comes amid increasing pressure by the US to restrict China’s semiconductor and AI development over national security concerns.  Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday that China is planning to establish a new central data management agency.  Sources say that the new data bureau, which will reportedly be discussed at the NPC next week, will aim to set and enforce data-collection and sharing rules and address data security vulnerabilities.  Bloomberg Reuters South China Morning Post Wall Street Journal

China Reaffirms Call ‘Peaceful Reunification’ with Taiwan.  Premier Li briefly mentioned Taiwan at the opening of the NPC, saying that China stands by the “one China” policy and “opposes Taiwan independence” while also reaffirming Beijing’s preference for “peaceful reunification.”  He added that China “should promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations” by forging stronger economic ties, providing better welfare for Taiwanese in China, and promoting shared Chinese culture.  (Editor’s note: Li’s remarks reiterate existing principles and do not call for a new Taiwan policy.  His softer language also suggests China wants more stability on the Taiwan issue as the island enters a presidential campaign year and as Beijing tackles other issues like competition with the US and economic growth.)  Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council responded to Li’s comments by calling on China to respect Taiwan’s commitment to sovereignty and democracy and accept that both sides are “not subordinate to each other.”  ABC Reuters South China Morning Post

Taiwan Warns Of Chinese Military's 'Sudden Entry' Close to Island.  As China's NPC focused on developing peaceful cross-Strait relations, Taiwanese Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng warned Monday that Taiwan must be prepared for the Chinese military to make “sudden entry” into areas near the island’s territorial waters and airspace.  Chiu said that China is “making such preparations” to “use force if they really have to” and that Taiwan has prepared to “fire the first shot” on Chinese entities, ranging from drones to balloons, that get too close to the island.  A spokesperson from China’s foreign ministry responded by saying China will “defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.”  Chinese forces frequently enter Taiwan’s air defense identification zone but have yet to enter the island’s contiguous zone 24 nautical miles from its coast.  Reuters Taiwan News

South Korea Paying to Resolve Forced Labor Dispute With Japan.  South Korea announced Monday that its companies will compensate victims of forced labor under Japan’s 1910-1945 occupation of the Korean peninsula.  The compensation will be paid through an existing South Korean public foundation funded by private-sector companies.  The plan aims to end the historical dispute which has complicated cooperation between Seoul and Tokyo on shared security concerns over China and North Korea.  Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida welcomed the proposal, and President Joe Biden called the development a “groundbreaking” step for closer ties between the two US allies.  South Korean critics of the plan say it represents a capitulation to Japan since Japanese companies are not being ordered to contribute to the reparations.  Bloomberg Japan Times Reuters

US Deploys B-52 Bomber in Military Drills with S. Korea. The United States and South Korea staged combined air drills on Monday morning.  South Korea’s defense ministry said the latest drills included at least one US B-52H bomber. The drill comes ahead of combined large-scale exercises known as Freedom Shield that are set to start next week.  Reuters The Korea Times

Suicide Bomb Kills Nine in Pakistan.  A suicide bomb in southwest Pakistan killed at least nine police officers, and injured another 16 people on Monday.  Authorities said the blast, which occurred in the town of Sibi in Balochistan province, targeted a police truck.  No group has claimed responsibility yet for the attack.  CNN Deutsche Welle

Arrest Warrants Issued for Former Pakistani PM Imran Khan.  Pakistani police issued arrest warrants for former Prime Minister Imran Khan on Sunday in order to ensure that he appears in court.  Khan is currently facing charges of misusing his office to sell state gifts received from foreign dignitaries, which he was found guilty of in October by the election commission. The Federal Investigation Agency later filed charges against him as well, leading to the warrants after Khan failed to appear in court despite several summons.  Reuters

Potential Taiwanese Presidential Candidate to Visit US. Ko Wen-je, chairman of the newly founded Taiwan People’s Party, is expected to make a 21-day trip to the United States beginning April 8 according to an announcement from the party. Ko, who was previously the two term mayor of Taipei, has yet to officially announce his candidacy, but is expected to make the visit in his capacity as the party’s presidential nominee. Ko is expected to meet with several State Department officials, and speak at several universities, including Harvard during the trip. Radio Taiwan International Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

Top US General Visits Syria.  US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, made a rare visit to northeastern Syria on Saturday.  His spokesman said Milley visited an Army base in the area to meet with US troops fighting ISIS and assess US efforts against the Islamist insurgent group.  Syria’s foreign ministry condemned the trip as “illegal” and a “flagrant violation” of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.  CNN The Hill

US Defense Secretary Starts Middle East Tour.  US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is in Jordan to start a Middle East tour which will include visits to Israel and Egypt.  Sources and observers say Austin’s tour aims to reassure allies in the region of US commitment despite focus on challenges from Russia and China.  Officials added that Austin is set to emphasize demands that Israel de-escalate tensions in the occupied West Bank and raise human rights concerns with Egypt.  Reuters US Department of Defense

IAEA Chief Says Attacks on Iranian Nuclear Sites ‘Outlawed.’  IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said Saturday that “any military attack on nuclear facilities is outlawed” in response to questions about threats from Israel and the US to strike Iranian nuclear sites to prevent Tehran from making a nuclear weapon.  Grossi made the comments on a trip to Iran to receive assurances that Tehran will cooperate with investigations into uranium found at undeclared sites.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded to Grossi’s remarks by calling them “unworthy” and said that Israel is “obviously permitted” to defend itself with strikes on Iranian nuclear sites given Iran’s own threats against Israel.  Reuters

Iran’s Supreme Leader Calls for No Amnesty Over Schoolgirl Poisonings.  Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Monday condemned the recent series of poisoning attacks targeting Iranian schoolgirls, calling them unforgivable and saying those responsible should receive capital punishment with no amnesty.  Khamenei’s remarks come after over a thousand girls across the country have been hospitalized from the attacks since November.  Media reports say the attacks have occurred in more than 30 schools across at least 10 different provinces.  Deutsche Welle France24 Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

Namibia Makes Third Oil Discovery. Namibian State-owned oil company NAMCOR, along with partners Shell and QatarEnergy, have made a third oil discovery in the Orange Basin, located offshore Namibia’s southern coast.  This is the third oil discovery made by the partnership after two previous discoveries in 2022.  The partnership is planning further drilling to determine the size of the new oil field.  Reuters

Cyber & Tech

US Treasury Preparing Foreign Technology Investment Restrictions.  The US Treasury and Commerce departments are reportedly preparing new regulations on US investments in key technologies abroad that could pose national security risks.  The regulations will reportedly prohibit some investments and facilitate information gathering on other investments to inform future policy.  Reports made to Congress about the rules did not specify technological sectors of concern, but they did say the rules will focus on technology relevant to military development.  Sources add that the rules will likely target investments in advanced semiconductors, quantum computing and AI and focus on scrutinizing investments in Chinese companies.  Reuters Wall Street Journal

EPA Issues New Water Cybersecurity Mandate.  The Environmental Protection Agency issued a new cybersecurity mandate for water utilities on Friday to assess and boost digital defenses of US public water systems.  The mandate reinterprets the Safe Drinking Water Act to include cybersecurity considerations in required sanitary surveys.  The rules marks the first time cybersecurity rules specifically target the water sector and comes after the Biden administration released a new cybersecurity strategy which calls for stronger cyber defenses of all critical infrastructure sectors.  Axios CyberScoop The Record

FBI, CISA Warn of Heightened Royal Ransomware Attack Risks.  The FBI and CISA issued a joint advisory highlighting increasing threats of attacks using Royal ransomware.  The ransomware strain has been used in a series of attacks against US healthcare organizations, as well as other critical infrastructure, communications, manufacturing and education targets.  The advisory warns that the strain is more difficult to detect than others.  It also directs vulnerable organizations to bolster cyber defenses in response.  BleepingComputer The Record

US Targets China’s Artificial Intelligence Industry with Latest Trade Sanctions.  The recent US decision to add Chinese firm Inspur, the world’s second largest Artificial Intelligence (AI) server manufacturer to a US entity list of trade sanctions signals a major attempt to rein in Chinese AI development according to Chinese analysts.  Being added to the US ‘entity list’ means that it will be very difficult for the firm to source key components from US suppliers such as Nvidia and Intel, a move that analysts say could have a significant impact on Beijing’s attempts to win the race against the US for dominance in advanced technologies.  South China Morning Post  

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