Report for Monday, March 25, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

ISIS claims responsibility for Moscow terror attack

Israeli defense chief in Washington for Gaza talks

Russian missile enters Polish airspace during barrage on western Ukraine, Kyiv.

China blocking use of Intel, AMD chips in government computers

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

SUBSCRIBER+ EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — The Tragedy in Moscow Isn't Over Yet, says CIA's former Chief of Central Eurasia Division.

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS — After Moscow Terror, Kremlin Wages Disinformation Campaign.

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVE OPINION — Russia is Learning that Countries that live in Gas Houses Shouldn't Throw Drones.

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVE OPINION — Navigating the Frontier of Venture Capital and National Security.

CIPHER BRIEF SPONSORED CONTENT — Safeguarding Trust in Elections in the Age of AI.

THE ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israeli defense chief visiting Washington as tensions rise over Gaza war.  Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant traveled to Washington on Sunday amid increasingly strained ties with the U.S. over Israel's defiance of calls to ease the crisis in Gaza.  Gallant is scheduled to meet with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and other senior officials.  The visit, occurring at Austin's invitation, follows Blinken’s trip to Israel, during which he conveyed U.S. concerns over Israel’s Rafah plans and warned Israeli leaders that they need a “coherent plan” for a post-war Gaza, or else the enclave will remain under Hamas control or it will collapse into anarchy.

On Sunday, Vice President Kamala Harris, appearing on ABC’s This Week, said,  ​​“I am ruling out nothing” when asked whether the U.S. would impose consequences if Israel went ahead with its threatened military assault on Rafah.  “We have been clear in multiple conversations and in every way that any major military operation in Rafah would be a huge mistake,” Harris said.  Washington Post Al Jazeera Bloomberg Axios

Fighting continues at Gaza hospitals.  Fighting continues around Gaza’s main Al-Shifa hospital, where Israel said it has captured 480 suspected militants over days of clashes.  Israeli forces reportedly moved on two more Gaza hospitals — Al-Amal and Nasser in the southern city of Khan Younis — on Sunday.  The Israeli military said it moved on AL-Amal following “precise intelligence” indicating the presence of terrorists in the area.  The Palestinian Red Crescent said the Israeli operation killed one of its staff and pinned down medical personnel.  The Red Crescent also said Israeli forces are demanding the evacuation of Al Amal and conducted bulldozing operations around the hospital.  Khan Younis residents said Israeli forces have formed a cordon around Nasser Hospital.  Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera

ANALYSIS — Israel can’t crush Hamas, leaving the Mideast mired in endless war.  Israel has no plan for stabilizing the Gaza Strip.  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected U.S. and Arab nations’ proposal that a reformed Palestinian Authority run Gaza, but Israel has also ruled out permanent occupation by Israeli troops.  With no police to maintain order, humanitarian aid can’t be distributed evenly, contributing to the hunger crisis. Hamas has been regrouping, retaking places like Al Shifa hospital, which Israel had cleared, then vacated.  Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said earlier this year that the war would enter a prolonged phase of raids against remaining points of resistance by Hamas in northern Gaza. More than 100 Israeli hostages or their bodies remain in the hands of Hamas.  Hamas’s leader Yahya Sinwar is still free.  Israel has demobilized most of the reservists sent to Gaza, partly to relieve the pressure on Israel’s economy.  These factors add up to the prospect of endless war, which is costing Israel international support, including from the U.S.  Wall Street Journal 

Russia, China veto U.S. Gaza ceasefire resolution.  Russia and China on Friday vetoed a U.S.-sponsored resolution that said the U.N. Security Council “determines the imperative of an immediate and sustained cease-fire” in the Gaza war.  The proceedings marked the first time Washington had supported the use of the term "ceasefire" by the Security Council.  The U.S. proposal did not use the word “demand,” apparently in deference to Israel.  Yet it expressed “grave concern” about a threatened Israeli incursion into Rafah and demanded that Israel open more border crossings with Gaza to improve aid deliveries. "The vast majority of this council voted in favor of this resolution, but unfortunately Russia and China decided to exercise its veto," U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the Security Council, referring to the 11 of 15 votes for the measure.  Thomas-Greenfield accused Russia and China of vetoing the resolution for "cynical" and "petty" reasons.  According to Reuters, the council will meet on Monday to vote on an alternative resolution drafted by other members of the Security Council.  UN News Axios Associated Press Reuters Politico  Wall Street Journal New York Times

U.N. chief visits Egypt’s border with Gaza, decries blocked aid trucks.   U.N. Secretary General António Guterres visited Egypt’s border with Gaza Saturday and reiterated pleas for a cease-fire. On the Egyptian side of the Rafah crossing, Guterres described blocked aid trucks as a “moral outrage” and said, “nothing justifies the horrific attacks by Hamas on Oct. 7. And nothing justifies the collective punishment of the Palestinian people.”  He urged Israel to allow “total, unfettered” access to humanitarian supplies throughout Gaza.  In a joint statement on Saturday, humanitarian groups including International Rescue Committee, Oxfam America and Save the Children said they have witnessed aid, including U.S.-funded assistance, being “consistently and arbitrarily denied, restricted, and impeded by the Israeli authorities.” Israel has denied that it is blocking aid to Gazans.  Washington Post Bloomberg

Israel makes biggest West Bank seizure since 1993.  Israel's far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, announced the seizure of 10 square kilometers of Palestinian territory in the West Bank on Friday, the largest such seizure since the 1993 Oslo accords. Smotrich defended the move as promoting settlement expansion, despite international law considering Israeli settlements illegal. This action further diminishes the possibility of a two-state solution. The announcement coincided with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to Israel for discussions on Gaza's future, amidst growing calls for a definitive plan for a Palestinian state.  Washington Post France 24 Al Jazeera 

THE RED SEA

Houthis fire on Chinese oil tanker, violating pledge not to attack Chinese ships in Red Sea.  Between 2:50 to 4:30 a.m. Sanaa time Saturday, Houthi militants launched four anti-ship ballistic missiles at the M/V Huang Pu, a Panamanian-flagged, Chinese-owned, Chinese-operated oil tanker transiting the Red Sea, the U.S. Central Command reported on X late Saturday.  Between 6:50 and 9:50 a.m. Sanaa time, the U.S. Navy destroyer USS Carney engaged six Houthi drones over the southern Red Sea, destroying five and sending the sixth flying back to Houthi territory in Yemen.  At 4:25 p.m. Sanaa time, the Houthis fired a fifth ballistic missile at theHuang Pu. The missile hit, igniting a fire that the crew was able to extinguish within half an hour.  The Huang Pu ship issued a distress call but did not request assistance. The Huang Pu suffered “minimal damage,” no casualties were reported, and the vessel resumed its course. The attack on the Huang Pu came after the Houthis said they told China it would not attack any of its vessels.  CENTCOM X Bloomberg

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russia stages major airstrike on Ukraine; one missile enters Polish airspace. Russia launched a significant airstrike on Ukraine's western Lviv region and Kyiv early on Sunday, targeting critical infrastructure. The attack involved 57 missiles and drones, including hard-to-intercept Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. Air defenses destroyed 18 of 29 inbound missiles and 25 of 28 attack drones, the Air Force said. The attack hit a gas storage facility in western Ukraine, causing damage but not affecting gas supplies.  The barrage followed a significant bombardment of Ukraine's energy system two days prior.  A cruise missile launched by Russia in the attack briefly breached Polish air space. Poland's armed forces said the missile went more than a mile into Polish air space near the town of Oserdow and “stayed there for 39 seconds” before returning to Ukraine.  Poland monitored the missile and activated Polish and allied military aircraft in response.  Reuters Associated Press Kyiv Independent Bloomberg

Kharkiv mayor: Russian attacks destroy thermal power plant, all substations. Russian attacks have severely damaged Kharkiv's energy infrastructure, leaving the city with an unstable power supply. Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported on Sunday that the recent strikes damaged a thermal power plant and electrical substations. Besides Kharkiv, restoration of power is also ongoing in Odesa and Kyiv regions.  Kyiv Independent

Zelensky: Russia launched nearly 190 missiles, 140 drones at Ukraine in last week. President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on Sunday that Russia attacked Ukraine with 190 missiles, 140 drones and 700 bombs last week, targeting energy infrastructure and temporarily knocking out power to 1.5 million residents. Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent

Ukraine hits Russian ships, navy infrastructure in Sevastopol.   The Ukrainian military said it hit two large Russian landing ships, a communications center and other infrastructure used by the Russian navy’s Black Sea Fleet. A Moscow-installed official in the region reported a major Ukrainian air attack and said air defenses had shot down more than 10 missiles over the Crimean port of Sevastopol. Sevastopol governor Mikhail Razvozhayev said on his Telegram channel that it was the “most massive attack in recent times.” He said a 65-year-old man was killed, four people were injured and that transport infrastructure, including passenger boats and buses, were damaged.  CNN Al Jazeera 

Fire at Russian power plant takes two units offline, governor says. A fire at Novocherkassk, a major thermal power plant in southwestern Russia, temporarily took two units offline. The incident briefly disrupted customer supply, with no casualties reported. Authorities are investigating the cause, amid claims by a Russian news channel linking the fire to Ukrainian drone attacks. Ukraine has not commented on the incident. Reuters

Former CIA director says Ukraine can go on the offensive with Western help.  Former Central Intelligence Agency Director David Petraeus, a Cipher Brief Expert, expressed optimism about further U.S. military aid to Ukraine during the Kyiv Security Forum held last Thursday and Friday. Speaking remotely to the attendees in Kyiv, Petraeus highlighted bipartisan support in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. He said that the eventual passage of the stalled $60 billion aid package could enable Ukraine to withstand the Russian offensive and launch a counteroffensive by early 2025.  Ukrinform

Ukraine’s battered army grapples with growing troop shortage. As Ukraine faces a critical shortage of soldiers, legislation to expand the draft has stalled in the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament. The proposed changes are modest and include lowering the conscription age to 25 from 27 and adopting penalties for draft avoidance. Ukraine continues to struggle to bolster its exhausted forces against a numerically superior Russian military. Wall Street Journal 

Media: Hungarian FM says ending Russia-Ukraine war in Hungary’s fundamental interest.   Hungary emphasized the urgent need for peace talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war, fearing a potential third world war. Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Sunday that Hungary remains opposed to supplying weapons to Ukraine, citing escalation risks, and criticized the suggestion of the European Council President Charles Michel to adopt a "war economy." Kyiv Independent 

Border Guard: Polish farmers completely block Ukrainian trucks at 2 border crossings. Polish farmers protesting against the influx of cheap Ukrainian agricultural imports blocked truck traffic at the Yahodin and Hrebenne-Rava-Ruska checkpoints on the Polish-Ukrainian border on Sunday. The blockade stranded 500 trucks. Kyiv and Warsaw are seeking to resolve the dispute that has drastically reduced border crossings from an average daily capacity of up to 1,400 trucks to just 60 trucks. Kyiv Independent

The Americas

Biden signs $1.2 trillion government funding bill, contains $300 million in Ukraine aid.    President Joe Biden signed a $1.2 trillion multi-department funding package on Saturday. The Senate voted for final passage at 2:03 a.m. Saturday, averting a government shutdown.  The package contains $825 billion for FY 2024 defense spending. Its passage allows the Pentagon to initiate planned initiatives and weapons procurement.  For over five months, the Defense Department had operated under stopgap funding at prior-year levels, hampering new programs and acquisitions.  The bill allocates $33.5 billion for eight ships, 86 F-35s, 24 F-15EXs, 15 KC-46A tankers, and $2.1 billion for Army and Navy hypersonic weapons. The bill also funds multiyear contracts for critical munitions including missiles and air-to-air munitions.  It also allocated $300 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative to supply Kyiv with new military equipment.  However, the $300 million is a fraction of the massive $60 billion Ukraine aid package that remains stalled in the House.  Defense News 

McCaul expects Johnson to bring Ukraine aid bill to the floor after Easter.  House Foreign Affairs Committee chair Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” Sunday that he expects Speaker Mike Johnson to bring the long-awaited $60 billion Ukraine aid bill to the floor after Easter, even though Republican hardliners who oppose more spending on Ukraine may try to throw him out of office.  Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) last week filed a motion to remove Johnson from his leadership role after he garnered Democratic support to pass a separate bill with $1.2 trillion to fund the government.  Politico Kyiv Independent

Biden appoints new economic advisors with eye on China. President Joe Biden is shaking up his economic advisors as he rethinks his administration's industrial policy ahead of the general election. Navtej Dhillon, former NEC chief of staff, will be appointed as deputy director of the National Economic Council under Lael Brainard. And Mike Konczal, previously with the Roosevelt Institute, will join as a special assistant for economic policy, focusing on addressing unfair Chinese economic practices and analyzing the impact of corporate markups on price growth. Bloomberg

China panel chair Gallagher to leave House next month. Retiring Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wisc., has decided he will exit the House April 19, Politico reported. With his departure, House Republicans drop to a one-vote majority. Gallagher, chair of the Select Committee on China, recently scored a signal victory, with House passage of a bipartisan bill to force TikTok in the U.S. to sever its ties to the Chinese government. It’s uncertain whether the bill will pass the Senate, where several lawmakers have expressed doubts about its constitutionality.  Politico

Space Force sends Congress $1 billion list of unfunded projects. The U.S. Space Force requested over $1 billion from Congress more than it was granted for a largely classified set of high-priority efforts not included in its fiscal 2025 budget proposal.  The supplemental list comprises $846 million in classified projects and $305 million focused on enhancing system resiliency and training capabilities.  The military services annually provide Congress with unfunded priorities beyond the official budget request, reflecting the Space Force's emphasis on hardening satellites and ground assets against threats.  Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said the $29.4 billion budget allows continued progress but seeks quicker advancement in areas like positioning, navigation, timing, and counter-space operations through unfunded requests.  These include $159 million for commercial SATCOM procurement, $42.5 million for Space Development Agency demonstration satellites, $60 million for energy efficiency at Buckley base, and $19 million to expand wargames and training exercises.  Defense News 

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT OPINION – America’s Next Refugee Crisis May Come from Haiti.  Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Adm. James Stavridis (Ret.), a Cipher Brief Expert, warns that Haiti is on the brink of political, security, and socioeconomic collapse, risking a mass migration toward the US.  Historical mismanagement, natural disasters, and recent political turmoil have exacerbated the situation, leading to gangs controlling much of the country.  Stability hinges on a substantial peacekeeping force, but international support is lacking.  The US, preoccupied with other global crises, may need to intervene to prevent a refugee crisis akin to past Haitian migrations. Without decisive action, Haiti's collapse could lead to a flood of refugees arriving by sea on Florida's shores.  Bloomberg  

OPINION — Scams are on the rise, and they’re ruining lives. We can stop it.  William Webster, former director of the FBI and CIA, and Lynda Webster, founder and chair of the Webster Group event management firm, recount a personal experience with a scam, highlighting the pervasive threat it poses to Americans.  Despite advocacy efforts, scam attacks continue to rise in sophistication, causing staggering financial losses and emotional turmoil.  They emphasize the need for a comprehensive national strategy, including centralized fraud reporting and collaboration with the private sector, drawing inspiration from Britain's successful anti-fraud initiatives.  Washington Post

Asia and Oceania

China coastguard uses water cannons against Philippine ships in the South China Sea.  China's coastguard used water cannons against Philippine vessels in the South China Sea on Saturday, causing "significant damage" and injuring personnel. The incident involved a civilian boat resupplying Filipino troops in the disputed Second Thomas Shoal and Spratly Island waters. The Philippines condemned China's actions as "irresponsible and provocative," asserting their legal rights despite China's claims to the area and warnings of "resolute measures" to protect its sovereignty.  Beijing on Sunday warned Manila against provocations and not to “escalate the situation,” adding that bilateral relations are at a “crossroads.”  Reuters China Morning Post The Japan Times

U.S. won’t help build a remote Philippine port near Taiwan. The United States will not participate in developing a port in the Philippines' Batanes islands near Taiwan.  The project will now seek assistance from the Philippine Port Authority.  The port aims to improve cargo unloading during rough seas and was initially considered to receive U.S. military support.  Reuters reported that U.S. military involvement in the Batanes port could have stoked tension at a time of growing friction with China and a drive by Washington to intensify its longstanding defense engagements with the Philippines. Reuters 

Former Taiwan president Ma to make second trip to China.  Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou is set to make his second trip to China, where he will lead a group of students on an 11-day visit to various locations, including Beijing.  Ma, who served as president from 2008 to 2016, made history last year as the first former Taiwanese leader to visit China.  Reuters

Yellen to Visit Senior Leaders in China in April, Politico Says. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is slated to visit China in April for meetings with senior Chinese leaders, according to two government officials familiar with the trip planning. The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, did not provide details on Yellen's itinerary or agenda.  The visit would follow her July meetings in Beijing that established new U.S.-China economic and financial working groups.  Both the Treasury Department and the Chinese Embassy in Washington declined to comment on the reported trip, which the officials said is aimed at facilitating “frank and substantive discussions” on contentious bilateral issues.  Bloomberg Politico 

Japan, U.S. to make major upgrade to security alliance.  President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are reportedly planning to upgrade the U.S.-Japan security alliance and pursue tighter military cooperation, potentially restructuring Washington's East Asia command. Plans include appointing a four-star commander to oversee U.S. forces in Japan, mirroring Japan's proposed Self Defense Forces (SDF) headquarters.  The commander may land the groundwork for a future unified Japanese-U.S. command and would likely help collaboration with South Korea.  Some US officials prefer the new commander to focus solely on joint exercises, training, and information sharing.  Biden and Kishida are set to unveil plans at their meeting next month in Washington.  Financial Times Reuters 

North Korea claims Japan sought meeting with Kim Jong Un recently.  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's sister, Kim Yo Jong, claimed that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed his intention to meet with Kim, but stressed that improving relations depends on Japan's acknowledgment of its past actions during its occupation of the Korean peninsula.  She also warned that Japan would be considered an enemy if it antagonizes North Korea.  Kishida has expressed willingness to meet with Kim without preconditions, focusing on resolving issues like the abduction of Japanese citizens by North Korea.  Reuters Associated Press Deutsche Welle The Japan Times

North Korea's Kim visits tank unit, calls for airtight combat readiness.  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspected a tank unit on Sunday, according to state media.  During the visit, Kim was briefed on the unit’s attack and defense operation plan, presented tasks and guidelines for the unit, and called for it to increase its combat readiness including greater “ideological and mental power.”  North Korean state media has increasingly reported Kim overseeing several military tests and visiting military units in recent weeks.  Reuters Associated Press

India brings back 35 Somali pirates as part of operations near Red Sea. After 100 days of anti-piracy operations, the Indian Navy handed over 35 Somali pirates to Mumbai police. The pirates, captured from the hijacked cargo ship Ruen, face prosecution under India's 2022 anti-piracy law, potentially receiving life sentences. India captured the pirates last week, three months after the Ruen was hijacked off the Somali coast.  There is concern that piracy is returning around Somalia as regional focus turns to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.  Reuters

India’s Modi visits Bhutan amid the Himalayan kingdom’s border talks with China. India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited neighboring Bhutan, signaling concerns over a China-Bhutan boundary deal that could affect India's strategic interests. During his visit, Modi announced a $1.2 billion assistance program to strengthen India-Bhutan ties.  Bhutan is a nation of less than 1 million people on the eastern end of the Himalayas. Bloomberg

Europe

SUBSCRIBER+ EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — The Tragedy in Moscow Isn't Over Yet, says CIA's former Chief of Central Eurasia Division.

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS — After Moscow Terror, Kremlin Wages Disinformation Campaign.

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT OPINION — Russia is Learning that Countries that live in Gas Houses Shouldn't Throw Drones.

Aftermath of Friday night’s terror attack on suburban Moscow’s Crocus City Hall:

The victims: Russia emerged from a national day of mourning on Sunday as the death toll kept rising from a mass shooting Friday in a concert hall in Krasnogorsk, a northwestern Moscow suburb. At least 137 people were killed and another 182 injured, with many of those hospitalized in critical condition. After the shooting rampage, the four gunmen set fire to the 6,200-seat concert hall, located in a large shopping center.  On Sunday, with flags at half-mast throughout the nation, mourners made a shrine outside the destroyed venue. Video footage showed Russian President Vladimir Putin lighting a candle at a church in his presidential residence near Moscow in honor of the victims. Rescue workers sifted through the debris in search of bodies. The incident was the worst terror attack on Russian territory since the 2004 Beslan school siege when Islamist militants took more than 1,000 people hostage. More than 300 people died then, more than half of them children. CNN Reuters

The suspects: Russian authorities said they detained the four suspected gunmen, all citizens of Tajikistan, a former Soviet republic, and seven others for investigation. The suspects had visible injuries, showing signs of torture and beatings, as they made their first appearances in court on Sunday. Russian authorities said three of the four suspected gunmen, who were all in Russia on temporary or expired visas, confessed to being behind the attack.  Moscow’s Basmanny District Court formally charged Dalerdzhon Mirzoyev, 32; Saidakrami Rachabalizoda, 30; Shamsidin Fariduni, 25; and Mukhammadsobir Faizov, 19, with committing a group terrorist attack resulting in the death of others.  The offense carries a maximum sentence of life imprisonment. They are being held in pre-trial detention centers until a May 22 court appearance.  Associated Press Bloomberg 

ISIS claims responsibility: In a statement posted by its Amaq news agency along with graphic video footage, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the massacre. Experts said the mass shooting was the work of the Korasan affiliate, known as ISIS-K, and that the Islamic State offshoot has global ambitions with Russia as a top enemy. Many of its recruits are from Central Asia. They have been active in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran while shifting their attention to Europe and beyond. ISIS has many reasons to target Russia, including the Kremlin’s crackdown on the terrorist group in Syria in its support of President Bashar al-Assad, as well as other attacks on ISIS in African nations. Lingering hatred of Moscow remains for its brutal wars in the 1990s to subjugate Chechnya and the Soviet Union’s decade-long war in Afghanistan from 1979-1989. The Islamic State has a record of previous attacks against Russia, including the bombing of a 2015 flight from the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh to St. Petersburg and a 2022 attack on the Russian embassy in Kabul. Earlier this month, Russia's FSB said it foiled an attack on a Moscow synagogue by ISIS-K, an affiliate of the group. New York Times Reuters Politico

Blaming Ukraine: Despite the Islamic State Korasan’s claim of responsibility, Russian President Vladimir Putin made no mention of ISIS-K in his public remarks on the attack and was quick to implicate Ukrainian authorities. Putin said on Saturday that the suspected gunmen fled the concert hall and made their way to the Bryansk region, about 210 miles southwest of Moscow. "They tried to hide and moved towards Ukraine, where, according to preliminary data, a window was prepared for them on the Ukrainian side to cross the state border," Putin said. His propagandists were more direct. “It was not ISIS. It was the Ukrainians,” Margarita Simonyan, editor of  Russia Today, wrote on her Telegram channel.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, responding in his nightly video address on Saturday, denied that Ukraine had any involvement. He said that Putin was seeking ways to divert blame, suggesting that the Kremlin’s negligence or actions were responsible. "It's obvious that Putin and other thugs are just trying to blame someone else," Zelensky said. "Their methods are always the same. We've seen it all before, destroyed buildings, shootings and explosions. And they always find someone else to blame.”

The Western consensus dismissed claims of Ukraine’s involvement, with officials and experts in several nations questioning the credibility of Putin’s explanations. Some said that Putin had become so fixated on his war in Ukraine and campaign against critics and the West that he neglected domestic security threats. Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council, said on Saturday: “There was no Ukrainian involvement whatsoever.” Vice President Kamala Harris followed up on Sunday, telling ABC’s “This Week” that “ISIS-K is actually by all accounts responsible for what happened.” Reuters The Wall Street Journal  Financial Times  New York Times ABC

Warnings ignored: The United States said it gave private warnings to the Kremlin in early March about the possibility of a terrorist attack in Moscow as part of a longstanding U.S. policy to warn foreign governments, even adversaries, of potential threats. The U.S. issued a public warning on March 7 that advised American citizens in Russia to stay away from concert venues and other places with large crowds because of the heightened risk. Only three days before the attacks took place, Putin publicly dismissed the U.S. warnings as “provocative” statements that resemble “outright blackmail and an intention to intimidate and destabilize our society.” One U.S. official, quoted anonymously by the Wall Street Journal, said: “We have basically a steady stream of intelligence dating back to November about ISIS wanting to strike within Russia.” Wall Street Journal

International reaction and fallout: While governments universally condemned Friday’s massacre and offered condolences to Russia for the loss of innocent lives, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s explanations were met with deep skepticism in the West. At the least, the terror attacks exposed the failure of Putin’s security state to prevent such an incident. But other credible voices, citing the Kremlin strongman’s past, raised the dark possibility of a false flag operation to radicalize the population into greater support for the war on Ukraine and a tougher domestic crackdown on dissidents and migrants.

Garry Kasparov, a Russian opposition leader in exile, said the Kremlin’s explanations of the massacre lack any credibility. “In one of the most surveilled cities on earth, where you can be arrested in 30 seconds for whispering ‘no war,’ the terrorists continued their attack for more than an hour and then simply drove away,” Kasparov wrote in the Wall Street Journal. “Considering the amount of materiel and preparation required to do so much damage to a venue the size of a small village, it’s odd that the terrorists would suddenly turn into bungling amateurs by carrying their Tajik passports and heading to a militarized border.” He raised the possibility that the Kremlin’s Federal Security Service, known as the FSB, carried out the attack. Kasparov and many others have long pointed to evidence showing that then-Prime Minister Putin orchestrated terrorist bombings of four apartment complexes in Russia 25 years ago, killing more than 300 people. Putin used those deadly attacks to launch the second war on Chechnya. “It’s a deed so shocking that it is difficult to believe—until you realize what sort of man Mr. Putin is,” Kasparov wrote. “Mr. Putin grabbed power by committing mass murder in Chechnya. Today, in the hope of staying in power, Mr. Putin is committing mass murder in Ukraine.”

Meanwhile, France raised its terror alert to the highest level in response to the attacks. Paris is scheduled to host the Summer Olympic Games, an inviting target for terrorists. The Washington Post  Wall Street Journal  Bloomberg Associated Press France 24 Deutsche Welle  Times of Israel  Associated Press  Kyiv Independent ISW

EU must turn from Russian nuclear fuel, Belgian prime minister urges. The European Union must reduce reliance on Russian nuclear fuel to avoid dependency risks, Belgium's prime minister Alexander De Croo told the Financial Times. Renewed interest in nuclear power within the EU, driven by carbon reduction targets and efforts to move away from Russian gas, is complicated by Russia supplying 30% of the EU's enriched uranium.  Financial Times 

Middle East

What to do with Islamic State fighters detained in Syrian camps?  Some 9,000 Islamic State fighters are being held in a network of detention centers in Syria, guarded by the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurdish-led force that joined with the U.S. to fight Islamic State and is supported by American troops.  The dilemma: how to ensure thousands of the camps’ residents and imprisoned fighters are sent home?  If a future U.S. administration stops supporting the Syrian Democratic Forces, or withdraws American forces, security at the camps and detention centers could collapse, potentially boosting an ISIS revival.  Wall Street Journal   

Iran’s arms industry goes mainstream at Qatar expo with advanced ‘Gaza’ drone.  Iran unveiled its new drone, named "Gaza," at an international arms fair in Doha this month.  The drone can carry 13 bombs over 1,000 miles at high altitudes. The "Gaza" drone, symbolizing solidarity with Palestinians, signifies a threat with its long-range and payload capacity.  The drone marks a significant move by the Iranian defense industry into the international market after U.N. restrictions on its missile and drone sports expired.  The U.N. curbs had been part of a multilateral nuclear pact with Iran that the U.S. withdrew from in 2018. Iran's expanding military exports, including deals with Moscow and Sudan, reflect its growing influence in the arms trade, despite U.S. sanctions and global concerns over its support for regional militias and indirect confrontations with the U.S. Wall Street Journal 

Africa

Niger says the US must justify troops and drone base. The United States must explain why its troops and drone operations in Niger are legal and how they benefit the West African nation of 25 million people, a Nigerien government official said. “Whether the U.S. remains depends entirely on the interests of Niger,” Ibrahim Hamidou, head of communication in Prime Minister Ali Lamine Zeine’s office, told Bloomberg by phone. The U.S. has about 1,000 troops in Niger monitoring the trafficking of arms, drugs and other illicit goods through northern Niger to Libya. They are also providing drone support to the fight against Islamist violence from a $110 million drone base in central Niger.  Bloomberg Washington Post

Islamic State takes responsibility for killing dozens in an assault on Niger’s army.  The Islamic State claimed responsibility for an attack in Niger, killing 30 soldiers near Teguey, contradicting Niger's defense ministry, which reported 23 deaths. This incident underscores the ongoing Islamist insurgency in West Africa, contributing to military coups and shifts in international military alliances, including Niger revoking a U.S. military accord.  Reuters

Al Shabaab launches deadly attack on a military base in Somalia. Islamist group Al Shabaab attacked a military base in southwestern Somalia, killing at least 17 people. The group used suicide car bombs to seize the Busley base in the Lower Shabelle region.  Security forces later reclaimed it, with casualties including seven soldiers and 10 attackers. The al-Qaeda-allied group has been fighting for nearly two decades, aiming to topple Somalia's central government and establish its own rule based on its strict interpretation of Islamic Sharia law.  Reuters

Opposition candidate Faye takes lead in Senegal presidential polls.  Senegal opposition leader Bassirou Diomaye Faye is leading the country’s presidential election.  Official results have yet to be announced and the ruling coalition’s choice, Amadou Ba, has not said that he has lost and is expecting a run-off vote.  Reuters Deutsche Welle Al Jazeera Associated Press 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVE OPINION — Navigating the Frontier of Venture Capital and National Security.

CIPHER BRIEF SPONSORED CONTENT — Safeguarding Trust in Elections in the Age of AI.

Russian hackers targets German politicians ahead of elections. Russian hackers linked to Russian intelligence services conducted a campaign targeting German political parties by sending fake dinner invitations laced with malware, according to new research from cybersecurity firm Mandiant.  Impersonating Germany's Christian Democratic Union, the Russian operatives emailed fraudulent invitations claiming a March 1st reception, directing recipients to click malicious links hosted on hacker-controlled websites.  The Russian group known as APT29, previously focused on diplomatic entities, targeted political parties across the spectrum in the campaign, signaling “a broad threat” to Western democratic processes, Mandiant's report warned. Bloomberg Cyberscoop The Record

Dowden to say Chinese hackers behind attacks on British politicians.  U.K. Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden is expected to accuse China of orchestrating cyberattacks targeting British politicians on Monday. Ahead of Dowden's parliamentary statement, Parliament's security chief Alison Giles summoned a group of MPs from the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China for a briefing. British media also anticipates the government will accuse Beijing of a 2021 hack on the Electoral Commission exposing millions of voters' data, previously disclosed last year. The accusations come after British officials warned in 2022 that Chinese spies were targeting British politicians, defense figures, and businesses as part of a sophisticated intelligence operation.  Bloomberg Reuters

China blocking use of Intel, AMD chips in government computers. China has instituted new procurement guidelines to phase out U.S. microprocessors from Intel and AMD in government computers and servers, escalating efforts to replace foreign technology with domestic alternatives. The stricter rules also target Microsoft's Windows operating system and foreign database software in favor of local offerings, paralleling a localization drive underway at state-owned enterprises. According to sources, state firms were instructed by oversight agencies to complete an IT systems transition to domestic providers by 2027 and report quarterly on replacement progress, though some foreign tech may remain. The state-led pivot deals a blow to U.S. firms like Intel, for whom China comprised 27% of sales last year, and AMD, with 15% of revenue originating from the Chinese market. With strict criteria emphasizing Chinese design and production, it may prove challenging for Intel or AMD to earn approval for their processors under the new vetting process.  Financial Times

Cybersecurity standards bill after Change Healthcare attack.  Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner proposed a bill Friday that would legally require advanced payments to healthcare providers impacted by cyberattacks, provided they and their vendors meet minimum cybersecurity standards.  The measure responds to ongoing disruptions from the crippling ransomware attack on UnitedHealth subsidiary Change Healthcare that hampered prescription and payment services.  The Health Care Cybersecurity Improvement Act would modify Medicare's accelerated and advance payment programs to help providers maintain cash flow during future cyber incidents if they adhere to baseline security requirements set by the Health and Human Services Secretary.  Vendors like the targeted intermediaries at Change Healthcare would also have to comply with the cybersecurity benchmarks to enable the payments for impacted providers. If approved, the legislation would take effect two years after enactment to allow stakeholders time to enhance their cyber postures and align with the new standards.  NextGov CyberScoop

UN investigate North Korean crypto heists. A U.N. report alleges that North Korean hackers led over 58 cyberattacks over a six-year period, resulting in $3 billion in illicit gains in cryptocurrency. The targeted activities were traced to cyberthreat actors linked to the Reconnaissance General Bureau, including well-known groups like Kimsuky and Lazarus. These actors’ attack methods encompass spearphishing, vulnerability exploits, social engineering, and watering holes.  The U.N. is currently investigating 17 cryptocurrency hacks from 2023 alone, amounting to approximately $750 million in stolen funds. The targets span nuclear engineers, radar system creators, military vehicle manufacturers, and maritime companies across Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, and Russia. Chinese institutions have also faced an increasing number of North Korean cyberattacks.  The Record 

Meta shuttering disinformation tool ahead of election. Meta’s recent decision to close its CrowdTangle division, a tool for tracking disinformation across social media, has created controversy. Over 100 research and advocacy groups, including the Mozilla Foundation, the Center for Democracy and Technology, and Access Now, expressed their concern that this move will hamper efforts to combat disinformation. In an open letter, these groups urged Meta to continue supporting CrowdTangle at least until January. The letter highlights that this year’s global elections—including major contests in the United States, Brazil, and Australia—require monitoring tools. Meta has not announced a comparable replacement for CrowdTangle, which has been instrumental in tracking false content on Meta’s platforms. Despite CrowdTangle’s importance, Meta has been gradually reducing its investment in the tool. The absence of CrowdTangle in an election year could complicate efforts to combat disinformation, incitement, and harassment online.  The Record

Soyuz craft launches en route to International Space Station, 2 days after glitch. Russian Soyuz spacecraft successfully launched on Saturday from the Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, carrying Russian cosmonaut Oleg Novitsky, Belarusian astronaut Marina Vasilevskaya, and American astronaut Tracy Dyson en route to the International Space Station. The launch came after an earlier attempt on Thursday was aborted because of a chemical power source issue. Novitsky and Vasilevskaya are scheduled to return to Earth on April 6th, accompanied by U.S. astronaut Loral O’Hara, who is currently aboard the ISS.  Reuters

Report Info

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Brian Bonner, Katharine Campbell, and Leighton Durham contributed to this report.

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