Monday, March 20, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
400,000 Gallons of Radioactive Water Leaked from U.S. Nuclear Power Plant. Minnesota officials say they spotted a leak from a nuclear power plant roughly four months ago, but also acknowledged they did not alert the general public until last week. The plant is operated by the energy giant Xcel Energy in the city of Monticello, along the Mississippi River, and is some 35 miles northwest of the state’s most populous city, Minneapolis. Approximately 400,000 gallons of radioactive water – containing tritium, which emits a weak form of beta radiation – leaked from the plant. Tritium is a by-product of nuclear plant operations, though it cannot penetrate human skin, according to the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission. "If at any point there had been concern for the public safety, we would of course, immediately have provided more information,” Chris Clark, president of Xcel Energy-Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota, told CBS News. “But we also wanted to make sure we fully understood what was going on before we started raising any concerns with the public around us." BBC NPR
Magnitude 6.8 Earthquake Rocks Ecuador. A 6.8 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Ecuador and northern Peru on Saturday. The quake killed at least 14 people and injured another 380 and destroyed several dozen homes, schools and health centers. Ecuador’s state-run oil company Petroecuador evacuated and suspended operations at several facilities but did not report damage. NPR Reuters
Western Europe
Turkey’s Erdogan Approves Finland’s NATO Membership Bid. Halfway there. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Friday that he will back Finland’s NATO membership bid and recommended Turkey’s parliament to ratify its accession. Erdogan said he approves of Finland’s accession to NATO since the country has taken “sincere and concrete steps” to address Turkey’s concerns that the bloc hosts Kurdish groups and other forces opposed to the Turkish government. The move paves the way for Finland to join the alliance, pending Hungary’s ratification of the Nordic country’s bid. However, Sweden’s parallel application for membership remains in limbo. Many in Turkey believe Stockholm is not fulfilling demands like repatriation requests and that it is too soft on groups deemed terrorist organizations by Ankara. In a joint press conference, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö praised Erdogan’s support for Finland’s NATO accession, but said that it will not be complete without Sweden, which Niinistö hoped would garner the same approval by July. Al Jazeera BBC Deutsche Welle The Guardian
NATO Fighter Jets Intercept Russian Military Aircraft Near Estonia. A pair of British and German fighter jets intercepted a flight of Russian military planes near Estonian airspace on Friday, UK officials said, including a Russian military Tu-134 passenger jet, as well as two Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker fighter jets and an AN-12 Cub military transport. The intercept is not considered particularly unusual as both NATO and Russia have long probed each other’s air defenses, at times testing them for weaknesses. But the move comes amid growing calls by Ukrainian leadership for Western jets that would likely help blunt Russian missile and drone attacks. Polish President Andrzej Duda on Thursday pledged four MiG-29 fighter jets to Kyiv. CNN
France’s Macron Faces No-Confidence Vote. After weeks of protests and hundreds of arrests, French President Emanuel Macron is staring down among the most serious threats to his hold on power. His country’s National Assembly is set to vote on a no-confidence vote after his decision to unilaterally push through an unpopular rise in the state pension age. Using a special constitutional procedure to effectively side-step parliament and raise the age by two years to 64 – a move the government says is essential to ensure the system’s solvency – the French president’s decision prompted several no-confidence motions supported by both the far-left Nupes alliance and France's far-right National Rally party. The motions could trigger the resignation of Macron’s Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne. The country has faced growing unrest, including strikes at the country's refineries, which have raised concerns of potential fuel shortages. A day of nationwide industrial protests is scheduled for Thursday. BBC New York Times Reuters
UBS Buys Credit Suisse as Regulators Look to Thwart Global Financial Contagion. In a bid to prevent a broader financial crisis, the multinational investment bank UBS has agreed to pay 3 billion francs for its stricken rival Credit Suisse. The government-brokered deal includes a Swiss government promise to absorb as much as 9 billion francs to shore up the transaction, considered essential to contain the beginnings of a financial contagion that had already begun to spread across global markets. The merger is a first of its kind among two systemically important banks since the financial crisis of 2008. Associated Press Bloomberg New York Times Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Autocrats Unite — China’s Xi in Moscow to Meet Putin. Chinese President Xi Jinping landed in Moscow on Monday for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Xi will be navigating tricky waters on his trip as the Ukraine war rages on. China has positioned itself as a neutral mediator in the conflict and denied that it is seeking to arm Russia to support its invasion. At the same time, Beijing has not condemned Russia for its war on Ukraine and has maintained economic and energy ties with Moscow. Xi is expected to continue this back and forth, writing in an article ahead of his visit that “equal, rational and pragmatic” dialogue is needed to end the Ukraine war and that “there are no simple solutions to complex problems.” Xi also called against “hegemony and bullying” in the international community, in a veiled reference to US and Western pressure over Ukraine, but added that China-Russia cooperation is not aimed at third parties. For Moscow’s part, it is framing Xi’s visit as a sign of Beijing’s support against the “collective West.” In a parallel article to his “good old friend” Xi, Putin wrote that the US is growing more “rampant” in efforts to contain both Russia and China and that the two countries will not be forced apart. CNN New York Times Reuters South China Morning Post Wall Street Journal
Ukrainian Supply Routes to Bakhmut Remain Open as Russian Assault May be Weakening. Ukrainian Army officials said over the weekend that they are still able to keep their troops near Bakhmut supplied, and claimed to have killed nearly 200 Russian soldiers on Friday. Reuters says it was unable to verify those claims but this comes as analysts, including from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assess that the Russian offensive near Bakhmut and other areas in Eastern Ukraine may be nearing its culmination. ISW says that despite Moscow’s decision to commit nearly 300,000 Russian troops, that the spring offensive has failed to give Russia much more than incremental gains. ISW cites a growing concern among Russian milbloggers (military service members who write blogs) that the Ukrainian army may be preparing its own counteroffensive, and that Russia’s military might struggle to defend against a push by Ukraine. Reuters ISW
Putin Visits Occupied Crimea, City of Mariupol. Russian President Vladimir Putin made a bold, unannounced tour of Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine over the weekend. Putin first visited Crimea on Saturday to mark the ninth anniversary of Russia’s illegal annexation of the peninsula. He then moved on to the port city of Mariupol, which was devastated and then captured by Russian forces in May. Russian state media showed Putin meeting with Mariupol residents who thanked him for “the victory” of Russia seizing the city. Putin’s trip to Mariupol was his first to Russian-occupied areas in the Donbas region since the start of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and the closest he has gotten to the frontlines. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Putin’s visit to the city was like a “criminal” returning to the “crime scene.” Putin’s tour of Crimea and Mariupol appeared to be an act of defiance in response to the International Criminal Court accusing him of being involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. His stop at a children’s center during his visit to Crimea best demonstrated Russia’s denial of the ICC’s charges. BBC New York Times NPR Reuters RFE/RL
ICC Issues Arrest Warrant for Putin Over War Crimes in Ukraine. A day before Putin’s visit to Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for President Vladimir Putin and Russia’s Commissioner for Children’s Rights, Maria Lvova-Belova on suspicion of the war crime of unlawfully deporting children. The Ukrainian government and UN have said that there is evidence Russia has forcibly transferred thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia or Russian-occupied areas throughout Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The ICC said both Putin and Lvova-Belvoa are suspected of being individually responsible for the deportations. Kyiv hailed the arrest warrants as “historic” and a major first step towards holding the Russian leadership accountable for the Ukraine war. President Joe Biden likewise said the warrants are “justified” and that the U.S. also determined Russia has committed war crimes in Ukraine, though the U.S. is not a state party to the ICC. The Kremlin said the arrest warrants have “no significance whatsoever” and called them “outrageous and unacceptable.” Lvova-Belova rejected accusations against her, saying Russia is taking Ukrainian children out of conflict zones and “creating good conditions” for them. While the warrants are largely symbolic since Russia is not a party to the ICC, and would likely not turn over its own president if it was anyways, experts say the warrants undermine Russia’s denial of committing war crimes in Ukraine, potentially damaging its diplomatic standing with remaining partners, especially those who are ICC members. Al Jazeera BBC Deutsche Welle Reuters South China Morning Post
What Was That Capital Again? Russia Switches Zaporizhzhia Capital. Russian authorities reportedly now define the Russian occupied city of Melitopol as the capital of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, replacing the city of Zaporizhzhia – a move intelligence analysts speculate is a result of lack of Russian progress in its spring offensive. The reported change is according to a statement the UK’s Ministry of Defense released on Sunday. The region was annexed by President Vladimir Putin in September of last year, and yet Russia’s military has not been able to secure Zaporizhzhia city and its some 700,000 residents. The ministry said that the move to quietly change capitals likely represents a "tacit acknowledgment" for Russia that it will not succeed with "previously planned major objectives in the near future." Russian authorities were not immediately available for comment. UK Ministry of Defense Twitter
Russia Threatens to Destroy Polish, Slovak Jets Promised for Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday that the MiG-29 fighter jets promised by Poland and Slovakia for Ukraine will be “destroyed,” adding that they “will not change the outcome” of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. His comments mark the standard threats out of Russia made in response to announcements of new stages of Western military aid, whether they be tanks or the current turn towards military aircraft. BBC France 24 Reuters
Kazakhstan Election Could Spell More Trouble For Moscow. Just over a year ago, Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev phoned Moscow for help. A spike in gas prices prompted protests that quickly spread to most of the country's major cities. Tokayev called it a coup, and needed Russia to keep himself in power. Russian President Vladimir Putin obliged, and sent in paratroopers to put down the uprising in the energy rich former Soviet republic. But roughly a month later, when Russian tanks rumbled toward Kiev, Tokayev made it clear that he did not support Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Since then, Tokayev’s grip on power may have seemed tenuous. But he largely put those concerns to rest on Sunday when Kazakhstan voted in snap parliamentary elections to give his ruling Amanat party as much as 54% of the vote, according to exit polls, opening the door to a swath of expected reforms. Despite receiving Russia’s help a year ago, Tokayev has sought closer ties to the European Union and U.S. as a means of reducing his nation’s reliance on Moscow. Euronews Reuters
Asia
WHO Accuses China of Concealing Data on Natural Spread of Covid-10 From Animals. In an unusual rebuke of Chinese officials, the World Health Organization (WHO) publicly questioned China about withholding research potentially linking Covid’s origin to animals. Before that data had apparently vanished, an international team had already analyzed the now missing research, and suggested it could shed light on the notion that the pandemic began when humans were infected by racoon dogs at a Wuhan seafood market. The WHO receives funding from China and is often dependent on Beijing to secure access to much of the country, and has thus in recent years been seen as hesitant to be too critical of the government. New York Times UN News
Russia Replaces Saudi Arabia as Top Oil Exporter to China. In another sign of just how close Sino-Russian ties have gotten, Moscow edged out Riyadh as China’s top oil supplier for the first two months of Q1. Russian exports surged almost 24 percent compared to the same time period last year, Saudi Arabia’s exports slightly dropped. Chinese refineries have effectively been capitalizing on discounted Russian oil, largely a result of Western sanctions and a price cap on seaborne Russian crude, though domestic fuels demands have also been rising amid a lifting Covid-19 restrictions. Al Jazeera
As G7 Bemoans Inaction, North Korea Fires Another Ballistic Missile. It should have done something. That was the consensus of foreign ministers of the so-called G7 nations, who said on Sunday that they regret inaction by the U.N. Security Council over North Korea's recent missile tests. They pointed to "obstruction" by some members, though did not name China and Russia, who have each blocked attempts to formulate a more robust international response. In a statement, the group denounced North Korea's March 16 launch of an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile as "undermining regional and international peace and security." Meanwhile, North Korea fired another short-range ballistic missile on Sunday, the latest in a series of tests since the start of this year. CNN Reuters The Guardian
Australia Says Did Not Pledge to Defend Taiwan Under AUKUS Deal. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said Sunday that Canberra “absolutely” did not promise to join in any US-led military action to defend Taiwan from an attack in exchange for nuclear-powered submarines pledged under the AUKUS deal. His comments reiterate long-standing Australian policy to reject supporting Taiwan against such a conflict, which refers to an attack by China on the island. While Canberra says the AUKUS deal is meant to help address security concerns over China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific, it also says it will work to manage relations and maintain economic ties with Beijing. ABC News Reuters
Former Taiwan President Ma to Visit China. Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou will make a landmark visit to China this month. His trip will mark the first time a former or current Taiwanese leader has visited China and will come amid cross-Strait tensions. While Ma will avoid Beijing and only tour central China, his office left the possibility of him meeting with top Chinese officials open. Ma is a senior member of Taiwan’s main political opposition party Kuomintang (KMT), which says his trip to China underscores the KMT’s support of strong, open communication with Beijing. Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) criticized Ma’s trip as a sign that the KMT is too close to China. ABC News CNN Reuters
China Condemns British Lawmakers' Visit to Taiwan. The Chinese embassy in London condemned a visit by British lawmakers to Taiwan this week. The embassy said the lawmakers were insistent on visiting, despite opposition from China. Taiwan’s Presidential Office confirmed the visit, saying six lawmakers from the British-Taiwanese All-Party Parliamentary group will meet with President Tsai Ing-wen on Monday. Reuters
Japan Foreign Minister Visits Solomon Islands. Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi visited the Solomon Islands on Sunday to discuss global security and China. According to Japan’s foreign ministry, Minister Hayashi expressed that the country was prepared to provide maritime security assistance to the island nation. His visit marked the first by a Japanese foreign minister to the Pacific Island nation and came a year after China and the Solomon Islands signed a security pact. Reuters
Pakistan Former PM Khan Appears in Court. Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan officially appeared in court on Saturday in compliance with a summons that he illegally sold state gifts while in office. Khan has denied wrongdoing in the matter. His appearance in court followed violent clashes between his supporters and police, who attempted to arrest him when it appeared he would not adhere with the order for his court appearance. More cases, including terrorism charges, have now been filed against Khan and officials from his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party over the clashes, which Khan said showed “facism at unprecedented levels with police” in the country. He also said he will shortly expose an assassination plot planned against him at the court. Al Jazeera Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Israel, Palestine Move to De-Escalate Tensions Ahead of Ramadan. Israeli and Palestinian officials met in Egypt on Sunday to discuss ways to prevent violence in Jerusalem before the Muslim holy month Ramadan starts this week. The talks, which were also attended by Egyptian, Jordanian and American representatives, built on a past meeting in Jordan last month that also aimed at de-escalating tensions. While promises made at the Jordan meeting were not implemented, the Egypt meeting reiterated those commitments, including Israel’s pledge to not expand settlements in the occupied West Bank. Underscoring the seriousness of the security situation, a Palestinian gunman in Huwara reportedly fired at two Israelis in a vehicle, injuring one. The shooting was the latest in a series of violent incidents in the West Bank and Jerusalem in recent months. Reuters
Elite Israeli Military, Intelligence Reservists Join Anti-Government Protests. Hundreds of elite Israeli military and intelligence reservists refused to show up for military duties beginning Sunday, as they joined hundreds of thousands across the country protesting the proposed judiciary overhaul. Those involved in the protest include 450 volunteer reservists from special forces and 200 volunteer reservists from Missand and Shin Bet intelligence agencies. Israeli military and intelligence representatives have not commented on the protest. Reuters
Egypt Talks with Russia on Nuclear Plant, Food Security. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met with high ranking Russian officials to discuss the Russian-built Rosatom nuclear facility currently being built in El Dabaa, grain supply, and the establishment of a Russian industrial zone within the Suez Canal Economic Zone. The nuclear facility, which began construction last year, is expected to take until 2030 at least to be completed. Egypt is also a major importer of Russian wheat, and has relied heavily on them since the invasion of Ukraine. Reuters
Iraq, Iran Sign Border Security Deal. Officials from Iran and Iraq signed a joint border security agreement on Sunday aimed at “protecting the common borders between the two countries and consolidating cooperation in several security fields,” according to Iraq’s Prime Minister. The deal will also help to tighten security along Iraq’s Kurdish region and prevent armed groups from using the region to launch any attacks across the border into Iran. The signing of this deal became a priority following attacks last year on Iranian Kurdish groups in northern Iraq by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Reuters
Sub Saharan Africa
China’s Xi Calls for Punishment of Attackers in Central African Republic. Armed gunmen took over a gold mine in the Central African Republic on Sunday, killing nine Chinese nationals and injured another two in their attack. China’s foreign ministry said it deployed a team to the site to treat victims and organize an attack response following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “important directive” to respond to the incident and enact “severe punishment” on those responsible. The militant group the Coalition of Patriots for Change has denied claims that it launched the attack and blamed Russia’s Wagner Group and the Central African Republic’s livestock minister for planning the mine takeover, without providing evidence. Xi’s call for a strong response underscores China’s growing security role in Africa as it seeks access to the continent’s natural resources. South China Morning Post
Sudan Political Factions Agree to Form Transitional Government. Sudanese military leaders who took over in a coup in 2021 and the civilian political parties previously in power have announced an agreement to form a transitional government on April 11. The groups have agreed to put together a committee to draft a new constitution, with nine members from the civilian groups, one from the army, and one from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The groups are expected to sign a constitutional declaration on April 6. Reuters
East Congo Attacks Kill 22. Attacks by suspected militants in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo killed at least 22 people on Saturday. Officials and civil society leaders said CODECO militants killed 12 people in raids in the Ituri province. The military said that another 10 were killed in the Lubero area of North Kivu province in attacks by the Islamic State-aligned Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). Islamic State later appeared to confirm involvement by taking credit for the attack as an “expansion” of the group’s operations. Reuters
Cyber & Tech
Huawei Turns to Chinese Parts to Survive U.S. Sanctions. Chinese technology giant Huawei is adapting to U.S. sanctions by replacing banned American components with substitutes made in China. According to Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei, since the U.S. started imposing export controls on the company in 2019, Huawei has replaced over 13,000 U.S. parts it no longer has access to and redesigned 4,000 circuit boards to better suit the new supply chain environment. Ren’s claims shed light on alleged efforts by Huawei to deal with U.S. sanctions targeting China’s technology sector. Reuters South China Morning Post
China Appeals for “Non-Discriminatory Environment” After UK, New Zealand TikTok Bans. China appealed to other countries to treat their companies fairly following a series of country bans on the Chinese-owned app Tik Tok due to security concerns. In the statement by the foreign ministry, China called on other countries to provide a “non-discriminatory environment” for all Chinese companies. Associated Press
Scottish Parliament Advises MSPs to Remove Tik Tok from Devices. In an email sent last Friday, Scottish Parliamentary Authorities strongly advised MPs to remove Tik Tok from devices, citing security concerns. This warning applies to Scottish Parliament devices, as well as personal devices, according to Alan Balharrie, CIO and group head of digital services. This comes a day after UK Cabinet Office minister Oliver Dowden announced that TikTok would be banned from UK government phones. Sky News
TikTok Parent Company Fields Popular Video-Editing App in U.S. China’s ByteDance Ltd., the parent company to TikTok, has recently released the increasingly popular app CapCut. The app helps users easily create and edit videos with various effects. CapCut, which was released in 2020, now has more than 200 million monthly active users to create content for TikTok, Instagram and Youtube. Because of the tool nature of the app, it has largely been able to avoid criticism about the handling of user data that has plagued TikTok. Wall Street Journal
Silicon Valley Executives, Congress Members Plan Anti-China Alliance. Led by former Google policy advisor Jacon Helberg, a group of Silicon Valley executives along with members of Congress have quietly begun to mobilize against Chinese involvement in the US tech industry. This comes ahead of TikTik executive Shou Zi Chew’s testimony in Washington next week. The group is reportedly set to meet for a private dinner ahead of the testimony to discuss a number of issues related to national security, and Chinese encroachment on the US tech industry. Wall Street Journal
NBA Notifies Fans of Data Breach. The NBA has notified fans that some of their personal information may have been exposed after a data breach with a third-party service provider. The service provider, which was not named, helps the association communicate with fans via email according to the statement. The NBA is now working with a third-party service to investigate the breach, and has hired outside cybersecurity experts to look further into the situation. BleepingComputer
Dutch Shipping Giant Confirms Play Ransomware Attack. Dutch shipping giant Royal Dirkzwager confirmed that it was hit with a ransomware attack by the Play group. The company is the latest victim in a string of attacks on shipping companies. According to the company’s CEO Joan Blaas, the attack did not affect company operations, but it did result in the theft of data. The Dutch Data Protection Authority has been notified of the attack, and the company is currently in negotiations with those responsible. The Record
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