Report for Monday, June 3, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Israel looking for non-Hamas Palestinian leadership to govern Gaza 

Zelensky uses Singapore event to scold China for peace summit snub 

China lands on moon's far side in historic sample-retrieval mission

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

How Biden’s Reversal Could Change the War in Ukraine. President Joe Biden has signaled that he is allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with American weapons, a major shift that reverses a red line.  The U.S. previously refused to permit the use of such weapons to hit targets inside Russia over fears of escalation to a Russia-NATO confrontation.  The immediate aim of the change, and one of the reasons behind it, is to help Ukraine save its northeastern Kharkiv region, which has been under a new, steady Russian assault.  The White House said Biden “directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S.-supplied weapons for counter-fire purposes in the Kharkiv region.”  Despite the limits, experts say the green light will go a long way to helping counter Russian forces in the region.  Several Cipher Brief experts welcomed the shift in policy, and many said they believed it should have come sooner.  It is unclear how Russia will respond, with Moscow having warned repeatedly that it will not tolerate the use of U.S. weapons against Russian territory.  Experts say they expect more nuclear saber-rattling but believe Russian President Vladimir Putin would not risk direct aggression against NATO.  Still, Biden administration officials reportedly remain uneasy about possible escalation.  The Cipher Brief

Open Letter to The Hon. Jake Sullivan: Help Ukraine Finish This War. Rob Dannenberg, former chief of operations for CIA’s Counterterrorism Center, writes an open letter to U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan urging him to advise for further support for Ukraine, including by lifting restraints on military aid already given to Kyiv.  In particular, Dannenberg highlights the use of American weapons on targets in Russian territory as critical, both to counter the latest assault on the Kharkiv region and also more widely across the front and to curb Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and civilian targets launched from Russian territory.  Dannenberg says supporting Ukraine in this way will show Russian President Vladimir Putin that the U.S. will back Kyiv until he withdraws.  The Cipher Brief

South Africa Reminder: Freedom Fighters Don’t Always Make Good Rulers.  Tim Willasey-Wilsey, former Senior Member of the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office, reflects on how poor governance can often be linked to recently successful insurgent groups or liberation movements that have taken power. He says such groups’ overreliance on secrecy and security, clandestine financing and procurement, and lack of education in good governance are reasons for this, assessing that insurgent groups should not be entrusted with taking over a national government until after lengthy retraining and preparation.  Willasey-Wilsey notes poor governance in South Africa, Al Fatah and Hamas, the Taliban in Afghanistan, and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt as examples.  The Cipher Brief

THE ISRAEL HAMAS WAR

Israel looking for non-Hamas Palestinian leadership to govern Gaza.Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Sunday that Israel would not accept Hamas rule in Gaza at any stage as the war winds down. "While we conduct our important military actions, the defense establishment is simultaneously assessing a governing alternative to Hamas," Gallant said in a statement.  "We will isolate areas (in Gaza), remove Hamas operatives from these areas and introduce forces that will enable an alternative government to form – an alternative that threatens Hamas.” He did not explain what he meant by alternatives. Hamas has run the Gaza Strip since 2007, after winning parliamentary elections and a brief civil war with the Palestinian Authority.  Gallant, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and retired army general Benny Gantz plan to meet later in the day, Israeli media reported, after U.S. President Joe Biden presenteda framework deal for winding down the Gaza war. Hamas has provisionally welcomed the initiative but has not said whether it would  agree to step aside or disarm voluntarily.  Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera 

Netanyahu says Biden's Gaza plan 'not a good deal' but Israel will take it anyway. In an interview with Britain's Sunday Times, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said President Biden's proposal for a framework to wind down the Gaza war was "a deal we agreed to — it's not a good deal but we dearly want the hostages released, all of them."  He added that there “are a lot of details to be worked out."  On Saturday night, Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners — Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir — threatened to quit his government if he moved forward with the proposal. A statement released by Netanyahu’s office Sunday said, “Israel’s conditions for ending the war have not changed: the destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel.” 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken made separate phone calls about the proposal with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Benny Gantz, a retired army general and centrist minister who joined Netanyahu in an emergency coalition. In his call with Gantz, Blinken "emphasized that Hamas should take the deal without delay," State said. In his call with Gallant, Blinken "commended Israel’s readiness to conclude a deal" and "underscored that the proposal would advance Israel’s long-term security interests, including by enabling the possibility of further integration in the region.”  New York Times Reuters  

Netanyahu invited to address joint session of Congress.Leaders of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives on Friday invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address a joint session of Congress, showing bipartisan support for Israel amid divisions within the Democratic Party over Israel’s conduct of the war in Gaza.  In a post on X, Netanyahu said he was looking forward to the opportunity to “present the truth” to Congress.  The letter inviting Netanyahu was signed by Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries.  The Democratic Party has splintered over U.S. support for Israel.  Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), elder statesman of the party’s Progressive wing, wrote in a post on X, “Benjamin Netanyahu is a war criminal. He should not be invited to address a joint meeting of Congress. I certainly will not attend.”   Politico Reuters

How bad intelligence and planning led the Israeli military to strike a packed refugee camp, killing dozens and provoking world condemnation.The Hamas-controlled Gaza authorities said that 45 people were killed in the inferno ignited after an Israeli strike on a shack compound near a temporary UN shelter in the Tel al-Sultan refugee camp.  Haaretz reported that the Israeli army said that the strike’s targets,Yassin Rabia, Hamas' chief in the West Bank, and seniorHamas West Bank official Khalid Najar, were staying in one shack inside a compound of 13 shacks made of thin metal, about 6.5 feet apart. The army verified that there were no civilians in the shack occupied by the Hamas leaders, but it didn’t determine that no civilians were in nearby shacks. When the Israeli military bombed the Rabia-Najar shack with two bombs totalling about 220 pounds, the shack ignited, fire spread and consumed three more nearby shacks, killing about 45 people. Haaretz quoted Army officials as saying the military had no prior information that dozens of civilians were in the other shacks. It quoted an unnamed security source as saying that the military “would have aborted the strike if it had known that there were civilians in the nearby makeshift accommodation, even if it meant that two senior Hamas members would have been able to escape.”Haaretz  

The U.S. Spy Chief on a Long-Shot Diplomatic Mission. CIA Director William Burns, 68, has slogged through multiple negotiating rounds and a dozen trips to the Middle East and Europe to makea lasting cease-fire and hostage release, in the face of resistance fromHamas’s military chief, Yahya Sinwar, always in hiding, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He said it’s like “pushing a very big rock up a very steep hill.”  The stakes go beyond Gaza. If the deal succeeds, it will make possible other U.S. diplomatic efforts in the region, including a historic agreement tonormalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Wall Street Journal  

Egypt reportedly demands Israel withdraw from Rafah crossing. Egypt demanded in talks with the U.S. and Israel in Cairo that Israeli forces must withdraw from the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing to allow it to receive aid again, sources said.  Israel seized the crossing in May as part of its offensive in Rafah.  Egypt said the meeting was positive but no agreement on reopening the crossing was reached.  The Egyptian delegation added it would be open to European monitors at the crossing to oversee operations by Palestinian authorities, if the Palestinian side agreed.  Sources say Israel and the U.S. assured Egypt it would quickly move to remove obstacles to operation at the crossing.  Reuters 

Syrian state media reports Israeli air strikes near Aleppo. Syrian state media reported that Israeli airstrikes near the southeastern edge of Aleppo killed several people and caused material damage.  State media said earlier that Israel launched air strikes on central Syria and the coastal city of Baniyas on May 29, killing a child and injuring ten civilians.  Israel did not immediately acknowledge the reported strikes.  Israel has long carried out attacks against what it says are Iran-linked targets in Syria.  Reuters Associated Press 

Maldives set to bar Israelis from entering the country in protest of Gaza conflict.  The Maldives announced on Sunday that it will ban Israeli passport holders from entering amid its war on Hamas in Gaza.  In response, the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs recommended Israelis to avoid travel to the Indian Ocean nation and said Israeli citizens there should consider leaving.  Maldives President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu added that he is appointing a special envoy to assess the needs of Palestinians and setting up a fundraiser with UNRWA.  Associated Press Al Jazeera CNN The Guardian

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Zelensky uses Singapore event to scold China for peace summit snub. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the Philippines on Monday to urge regional leaders to attend a Swiss-organized global peace summit. Zelensky accused the Kremlin, with China's help, of trying to undermine the event aimed at exploring ways to end Russia’s war on Ukraine. Zelensky met with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and announced plans to open an embassy in Manila. On Sunday at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, both leaders criticized China's actions. Zelensky accused China of aiding Russia in discouraging nations from attending the peace summit and of helping supply the Kremlin with components for weapons used against Ukraine. “Unfortunately, Ukraine does not have any powerful connections with China because China does not want it,” Zelensky said. Marcos highlighted tensions with China in the South China Sea and emphasized peaceful resolution. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reaffirmed U.S. commitments to Ukraine and the Philippines, emphasizing the need for dialogue with China to prevent conflicts.Zelensky also expressed disappointment over the absence of top world leaders, including U.S. President Joe Biden, at Switzerland's June 15-16 summit. More than 100 nations are sending delegations. The talks will tackle energy security, prisoner exchanges and global food security. China and Saudi Arabia are among the nations that will not participate, citing the absence of Russia. On Sunday, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said Hungary had not decided whether to participate. Associated Press Kyiv Independent BBC Washington Post Financial Times Kyiv Independent  Kyiv Independent 

Zelensky urges U.S. to allow Ukraine to strike Russia with ATACMS missiles.President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday urged the U.S. to permit Ukraine to use long-range ATACMS missiles to strike inside Russia to protect lives. This follows the White House lifting some restrictions on using U.S. weapons against Russian territory near Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Sunday, Zelensky thanked President Joe Biden but emphasized the need to lift all restrictions, citing Russia's advantage in launching attacks from airfields that Ukraine cannot currently target. Kyiv Independent 

Russian oil refinery in Komi Republic catches fire, casualties reported.A fire at a Lukoil refinery in Russia's Komi Republic on Sunday caused casualties, with both injured and dead reported. Authorities attributed the fire to "non-compliance with safety regulations," not a Ukrainian drone attack. This incident is part of a series of fires at Russian oil facilities amid Ukraine's drone campaign. Kyiv Independent 

Russia continues attacks on Ukraine's energy sector as Kyiv urges more air defense assistance.Russia on Saturday launched a major missile and drone barrage on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, injuring at least 19 people and damaging facilities across the country. This marks the sixth big attack on Ukraine's power sector since March, intensifying the strain on its energy system. Ukraine's air force intercepted many of the missiles and drones, but the damage was extensive. President Volodymyr Zelensky asked for more air defense assistance, including Patriots and F-16s. The attacks targeted regions including Donetsk, Zaporizhzhi, Lviv, Kirovohrad and Ivano-Frankivsk, leading to increased blackouts and electricity imports.Deutsche Welle Reuters  

Russian missile injures 13 near Ukraine's Kharkiv, prosecutors say.A Russian missile on Saturday struck residences in Balakliia, near Ukraine's Kharkiv, wounding 13 people, including eight children, according to prosecutors. The attack occurred amid intensified Russian assaults on the Kharkiv region, where Russian forces have recently seized about a dozen villages. Ukrainian forces reportedly control 70% of the border town of Vovchansk. Recovery efforts concluded in Kharkiv city after three missile strikes on Friday, which left nine dead.Reuters 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Sunday, June 2, 2024.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with U.S. and Singaporean officials during the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, discussing the battlefield situation and Ukraine's need for air defense systems. He also highlighted the upcoming Global Peace Summit, with 106 countries confirmed to attend, excluding Russia. The provision of Western air defense systems and the lifting of Western restrictions on Ukraine's ability to strike military targets in Russian territory with Western-provided weapons remain crucial for Ukraine to repel Russian glide bomb and missile strikes against Kharkiv city. Ukrainian commanders are compensating for training difficulties by training new personnel on the front lines. The New York Times investigated the forced relocation of 46 Ukrainian children by Russian officials, potentially constituting a war crime. The Telegraph reported MI5's increased focus on Russian, Chinese and Iranian agents in the UK. Russian commentator Alexander Artamonov faced backlash for derogatory remarks about Ukrainians as “second-class citizens.” 

Battlefield updates: Ukrainian forces reportedly struck Russian military targets in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts over the weekend. Ukraine continues to strengthen defenses in Sumy Oblast against the threat of possible future Russian offensive operations. Russian forces claimed marginal advances in several areas of the frontline.Institute for the Study of War 

The path to U.S. approval on letting Ukraine strike inside Russia.In early May, as Russian artillery hit northern Kharkiv, Ukrainian President Zelensky again urged President Joe Biden to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia using U.S. weapons. This request, previously off-limits, gained traction due to the dire situation in Kharkiv. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and other officials supported lifting the restriction, emphasizing the need for counterfire capabilities. After internal discussions and support from key lawmakers, Biden agreed to a limited lifting for Kharkiv. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed the decision, noting the U.S. will adapt its support as battlefield conditions change. However, frustration remains in Kyiv over the geographical limitations imposed by the U.S.Politico 

In Crimea, Ukraine is beating Russia.Ukraine's recent successes against Russian forces in Crimea signify a major shift. The arrival of ATACMS ballistic missiles from the U.S., part of a $61 billion military-support package, enables Ukraine to target any location in Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukraine's strategic strikes on airbases, logistics hubs, air defenses, rail links, water connections and naval assets have weakened Russia's military presence. Recently, a Ukrainian operation damaged a ferry crossing and oil terminal at the port of Kavkaz and hit rail ferries crucial for Russian logistics. This campaign, supported by NATO reconnaissance and sophisticated drones, aims to isolate Crimea and turn it from a strategic asset into a liability for Russia. The effectiveness of Ukraine's actions in Crimea underscores its potential to reclaim the peninsula and pressure Russia into concessions.The Economist Politico 

Germany allows Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia with German weapons.Germany has authorized Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia using German-supplied weapons, following a similar move by the Biden administration. The decision comes amid sustained Russian attacks from near Kharkiv. German spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit emphasized Ukraine's right to self-defense under international law. While supporting Ukraine’s defensive actions, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has withheld long-range Taurus missiles to avoid confrontation with Russia. The policy shift aligns with Washington’s decision but still limits strikes to areas near the border. German politicians praised the move, noting previous restrictions benefited Russia.Politico 

More evidence points to Russia-North Korea military cooperation, South Korea defense minister says.South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said on Saturday that evidence shows Russia illegally imported weapons from North Korea for the war in Ukraine, escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula and affecting Europe. Shin warned that if North Korea receives military technology from Russia, it could enhance its military capabilities. The U.S. reported North Korea delivered over 10,000 containers of munitions to Russia. Shin urged China to help denuclearize the Korean Peninsula and emphasized a stronger U.S.-South Korea alliance over nuclear weapons.Reuters 

Upcoming summit to focus on emergency aid over reconstruction for Ukraine.Ahead of the June 11-12 Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin, where 1,500 representatives will gather, the focus is not on reconstruction but on maintaining Ukraine’s energy supply and critical infrastructure. Experts warn that the destruction of energy facilities could lead to severe winter hardships and more refugees leaving Ukraine. Air defense remains a vital issue. Ukraine's energy company DTEK recently announced that Russia had destroyed 90% of its "fossil generation capacity." The company, owned by billionaire Rinat Akhmetov, provides 40% of Ukraine's electricity supply. "You don't want to imagine the scenario of a big city without a functioning sewage system. Plans have to be prepared for this eventuality," said Robert Kirchner, an economist with consulting agency Berlin Economics.Deutsche Welle 

Ukrainian Defense Ministry reports 1.5 million men have updated military data in new online system.Around 1.5 million military-aged men in Ukraine have updated their military documents using the new online application Rezerv+ following a new mobilization law enacted in late May. The Defense Ministry reported that updates were also done in person at public service centers and enlistment offices. Additionally, over 14,000 Ukrainian men abroad updated their credentials via the app. Consular services for draft-aged men abroad were temporarily suspended but restored in May.Kyiv Independent 

Basic training in Ukraine is barely covering the basics, commanders say.Ukrainian commanders are concerned about inadequate training for new conscripts as the country mobilizes more troops to address shortages. The recently adopted conscription law aims to increase the draft pool, but incoming soldiers often lack basic skills, requiring weeks of training by field commanders. Redirected from non-combat roles, some new troops may face immediate deployment to front-line positions. President Volodymyr Zelensky has also authorized prison inmates to join the military. The training deficiencies highlight Ukraine’s struggle to maintain defense forces over two years into Russia’s invasion. Washington Post

Americas

U.S. says it could act against China firms, banks over Russian war support.  The United States and other nations are considering measures against Chinese companies and financial institutions for supporting Russia's war against Ukraine. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell indicated that the focus is on Chinese entities systematically aiding Russia, with potential actions also targeting financial institutions. This was discussed during a meeting with Japan and South Korea's vice foreign ministers, emphasizing their shared concerns over China, North Korea, and the Ukraine conflict. Campbell underscored the need for a collective message from European and NATO countries regarding China's role. Discussions also included strengthening security cooperation, economic security, and supporting Ukraine. The meeting prepared the groundwork for an upcoming trilateral summit, with an emphasis on the Indo-Pacific region's stability and security.  Reuters

VIDEO- How the CIA and FBI are turning to Russia to recruit a new generation of spies. U.S. intelligence agencies are seeking to recruit individuals within the Kremlin discontent with Russia's handling of the war during its invasion of Ukraine. This recruitment effort by the CIA and FBI is part of a strategy to gather valuable intelligence from Kremlin insiders and enlist a new generation of spies from Russia.  CNN

Biden executive order to permit Southwest border shutdown expected this week.President Biden is ready to sign an executive order as soon as Tuesday that would allow federal authorities to “shut down” the southern border, denying migrants ability to file asylum claims, if crossing points become overwhelmed. The order would use the Immigration and Nationality Act to limit crowds at crossing points by turning away migrants seeking asylum if numbers rise above a certain level. The number being discussed is 4,000 people a day, but the final decision hasn’t been made. Politico  

Starliner's launch scrubbed minutes before takeoff. NASA's planned launch of astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams aboard Boeing’s Starliner was aborted just minutes before liftoff due to a computer issue. The Starliner spacecraft, aiming to become a second vehicle for human spaceflight from the U.S., has faced significant technical delays and setbacks. This particular mission, set for an instantaneous launch window from Cape Canaveral, encountered a problem with one of the three necessary computers during the final countdown. As a result, the flight was scrubbed, and the next opportunities for launch are June 5 and June 6. This mission is critical for adding another spacecraft capable of carrying humans to NASA's fleet, alongside SpaceX's Crew Dragon, and comes amid Boeing's ongoing challenges and significant financial losses related to the Starliner project.The CST-200 Starliner's first crewed voyage to the International Space Station with two astronauts aboard, remains a key milestone for Boeing as it strives to move into the NASA business now dominated by Elon Musk's SpaceX. Once launched, the Starliner is expected to arrive at the space station after a flight of about 24 hours and dock with the orbiting research outpost some 250 miles (402 km) above Earth.  NY Times CNN  Reuters  

Syngenta CEO wants to ease U.S.-China tensions in farm country.For years, Syngenta Group has been considered a critical partner to thousands ofAmerican farmers. The agriculture company is a subsidiary of China National Chemical, AKA ChemChina and is headquartered in Switzerland. It is the biggest pesticide supplier to U.S. farms and a major seller of crop seeds. Syngenta owns about 1,500 acres of U.S. farmland for research, development and regulatory trials. Several states are considering restricting  foreign companies’ ownership of U.S. farmland, in order to keep China at bay.  Jeff Rowe, Syngenta’s new CEO, is trying to reassure farmers and lawmakers that his company is not manipulating the food supply or spying.  Wall Street Journal   

Mexico's Sheinbaum has won presidency with 58.3% of votes, says electoral institute. Claudia Sheinbaum has won a landslide victory to become Mexico's first female president, capturing between 58.3% and 60.7% of the vote. Her win, supported by the popularity of outgoing president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, marks the highest vote percentage in Mexico's democratic history. The ruling coalition is also expected to secure a two-thirds majority in Congress, enabling significant constitutional reforms. Opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez conceded defeat with 26.6%-28.6% of the vote. Sheinbaum faces challenges including improving security, handling economic issues, and managing U.S. relations amid tensions over migration and drug trafficking. She promises to continue Lopez Obrador's welfare programs while addressing a substantial budget deficit and low economic growth.  Reuters Deutsche Welle Al Jazeera 

Mexican gangs increasingly turn to ventures beyond drug trade. Mexico's criminal groups have diversified from drug trafficking into various other illegal activities, such as extortion, transport, agriculture, and more, driven by falling drug prices and the pursuit of less risky but lucrative ventures. This shift has heightened their need for territorial control, leading to increased violence and corruption, which poses a significant national security threat to both Mexico and the U.S. In regions like Chilpancingo, criminal gangs wield substantial power, undermining state authority and contributing to Mexico's high homicide rates. Despite Mexico's economic progress and growing middle class, security challenges persist, exacerbated by ineffective government responses and deep-seated corruption. The situation underscores the interlinked security issues facing Mexico and the U.S., with calls for more robust international cooperation to address the pervasive influence of criminal networks.  Politico

Mexican candidate assassinations hit grim record ahead of Sunday's election.  Mexico's current election season has become the bloodiest in the country's modern history, with the assassination of 37 candidates, surpassing the 36 killed during the 2021 midterm election. The latest victim, Jorge Huerta Cabrera, was murdered at a political rally in Puebla state. Violence has become a central issue in the presidential contest, forcing the ruling party to defend its record on crime. Claudia Sheinbaum, the ruling party's candidate, is expected to win and potentially become Mexico's first female president. The election has seen 828 non-lethal attacks on candidates, with analysts attributing the violence to powerful drug cartels and corrupt local governments.  Reuters Reuters 

El Salvador's 'all-powerful' gang-busting President Bukele sworn in for second term. El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele was sworn in for a second term, enjoying significant popularity and power due to his aggressive campaign against criminal gangs, which has been credited with reducing violence. Bukele's New Ideas party has near-total control of parliament following a sweeping victory in legislative polls. Despite his success, Bukele faces criticism for authoritarian tendencies and rights abuses, and economic challenges as the country's public debt and poverty rate rise. Bukele has dismissed legal constraints and criticism, and aims to lead El Salvador through a "period of prosperity" while addressing economic concerns and maintaining his tough stance on gangs.  France24 Reuters Al Jazeera

Asia and Oceania

Ukraine's Zelensky dominates Asia security conference as China, Taiwan trade barbs. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's unexpected appearance at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore dominated the conference after China's defense chief criticized Taiwan's "separatists," prompting a strong response from Taipei. Zelenskiy, in his trademark olive green T-shirt, urged support for an upcoming peace summit in Switzerland. He expressed disappointment at not meeting the Chinese delegation, accusing China of discouraging attendance at the summit. China's defense chief, Dong Jun, reiterated China's stance on Taiwan, promising to prevent its independence and criticizing Taiwanese "separatists." Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council condemned Dong's remarks as provocative. The conference also featured U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who reaffirmed the Indo-Pacific's importance to U.S. security and met with Dong for their first face-to-face meeting.  Reuters CNN 

Ukraine's Zelensky thanks Philippines' Marcos for support.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr in Manila on Monday and thanked him for his support and "clear position" on Russia's invasion of its territories.  Ukraine will open an embassy in Manila this year, Zelensky said. Zelenskyaddressed the last day of the Shangri-La Dialogue forum in Singapore.  Marcos delivered thekeynote address at the forum, criticizing aggressions in the South China Sea, without naming China.  Reuters ABC Ukrinform 

China lands on moon's far side in historic sample-retrieval mission. China successfully landed an uncrewed spacecraft, Chang'e-6, on the far side of the moon, aiming to retrieve rock and soil samples from the dark lunar hemisphere. This mission enhances China's status in the global space race, where various countries, including the U.S., plan to exploit lunar minerals for long-term missions. The landing in the South Pole-Aitken Basin involved high risks and complex engineering. It marks China's second successful mission on the moon's far side, a challenging region due to deep craters and communication difficulties. Chang'e-6 will collect and return 2 kg of lunar material to Earth, offering insights into the moon's and the solar system's history. The mission is part of China's broader lunar strategy, including its first astronaut landing by 2030, in collaboration with Russia.  Reuters Associated Press  

China says Britain's MI6 recruited two Chinese government workers as spies.  China has claimed that the British Secret Intelligence Service MI6 turned two staff members of unnamed Chinese government agencies into spies for the British government, its State Security Ministry said Monday. In its statement, the Chinese ministry said the spy with the surname Wang studied in the UK in 2015 under an exchange programme and had been invited to dinners and tours surreptitiously arranged by the MI6. After espionage training, MI6 commanded Wang to return to China to collect important information related to the Chinese government. Reuters  

Has a ‘Thucydides’ Trap’ been set? Political scientist Graham Allison gauges risks that could send US-China tensions into armed conflict. Graham Allison, a Harvard professor and author, shared insights from his recent trip to China, where he met President Xi Jinping and other leaders. He noted Xi's confidence and ambition to "make China great again." Allison observed that the US and China are navigating a complex relationship characterized by fierce competition, continuous communication, and necessary cooperation. He highlighted the importance of private, candid discussions between leaders, as seen in the Xi-Biden summit, which helped stabilize their deteriorating relationship. Allison remains cautiously optimistic about the future but acknowledges the inherent risks in US-China dynamics, particularly given China's alignment with Russia and the historical context of Thucydides’ Trap, where rising powers often clash with established ones.  South China Morning Post

North Korea says it will suspend sending trash balloons to South Korea. North Korea announced it will stop sending balloons carrying trash over the border to South Korea, but warned it will resume if anti-North Korean leaflets continue to be sent from the South. This comes after North Korea sent 15 tons of trash via 3,500 balloons, prompting South Korea to threaten severe measures, including broadcasting propaganda via loudspeakers. The announcement followed a South Korean National Security Council meeting, which condemned the trash balloons and simultaneous GPS jamming as provocative acts. Despite ongoing tensions and a technical state of war since the 1950-1953 Korean War, both Koreas have exchanged such provocations periodically. South Korea's Defence Minister emphasized that the balloons violate the armistice agreement, reaffirming coordinated responses with the U.S. against North Korean threats. Emergency alerts were issued in some regions, urging people to avoid touching the balloons. Reuters Associated Press CNN 

U.S. doubtful it could help South Korea on nuclear-powered subs. The United States is unlikely to assist South Korea in building nuclear-powered submarines due to its commitments under the AUKUS pact with Australia and the United Kingdom, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated at the Shangri-La security dialogue in Singapore. The AUKUS agreement, signed in 2021, involves sharing nuclear-powered submarine technology and selling at least three Virginia-class submarines to Australia by the 2030s. Austin mentioned that accommodating South Korea's request would be "very, very difficult" given current commitments. The AUKUS pact aims to counteract China's influence in the Asia-Pacific region and includes a second technology-sharing pillar, which has drawn interest from New Zealand and Japan. However, the focus remains on the U.S.-UK-Australia trio successfully advancing their submarine projects. Reuters

U.S. defense chief shifts focus to China risks; Beijing bristles. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin emphasized the ongoing importance of the Asia-Pacific region to U.S. security at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, despite current global conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. He met with his Chinese counterpart, Dong Jun, to address issues such as Taiwan and China's activities in the South China Sea. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy made an unscheduled appearance, seeking support for a peace summit and discussing additional air defense systems and sanctions against Russia. Austin reassured delegates of America's commitment to regional stability and alliances, while Chinese officials criticized U.S. policies as divisive. Indonesia's president-elect, Prabowo Subianto, proposed peacekeeping troops for Gaza. The Philippines' President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. condemned aggressive actions in the South China Sea, highlighting the U.S.-Philippine defense treaty amidst rising tensions with China.  Reuters

Prospect of peaceful 'reunification' with Taiwan being 'eroded', China says. Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun criticized Taiwanese separatists and external forces at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, asserting that their actions undermine the prospects for peaceful reunification with Taiwan. Dong emphasized that Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party is pursuing separatism and erasing Chinese identity, pledging that the People's Liberation Army will uphold national reunification. In response, Taiwan's government condemned China's misrepresentation and provocative remarks, reaffirming that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to each other. The U.S. support for Taiwan and arms sales continue to provoke China's discontent, with Dong describing them as crossing China's "red lines." Taiwan has faced delays in receiving U.S. weapons, impacting its self-defense capabilities, while its president, Lai Ching-te, remains open to dialogue with Beijing. Reuters Associated Press 

China will ‘never be soft’ on foreign interference, PLA official warns. At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, a senior PLA official, Lieutenant General Jing Jianfeng, asserted that China will not be "soft" on foreign interference and will continue Taiwan-related military exercises. Jing's comments were in response to U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's speech advocating for dispute resolution without punishment, indirectly referring to recent PLA drills around Taiwan. Jing emphasized the PLA's commitment to combat readiness and opposing Taiwan independence and external interference, accusing the U.S. of violating the one-China principle. He described the Taiwan Strait situation as "grim," linking Taiwan's new leader to escalating tensions. Jing also addressed U.S. alliances in the Asia-Pacific, criticizing them as attempts to maintain U.S. hegemony and warning of extreme risks due to U.S. support for Taiwan and the Philippines. Despite these tensions, Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun agreed to maintain communication between their militaries.  South China Morning Post 

Canada raised foreign interference concerns with China, defense minister says. During a meeting at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Canada's Defense Minister Bill Blair warned China against meddling in Canadian elections and interfering with the Chinese diaspora in Canada. Blair's concerns follow an April report by Canada's domestic spy agency that accused China of interfering in the last two elections, allegations that Beijing has denied. Blair also raised concerns about Chinese military actions around Taiwan following the island's January presidential election. Additionally, Blair stated that Canada would increase its presence in Asia and engage with India to address disagreements, following strained relations after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged Indian agents' involvement in the June 2023 murder of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Blair emphasized that Canada would not tolerate the territorial murder of its citizens. Reuters

China food security law comes into force, aims for absolute self-sufficiency. China has enacted its first food security law to achieve "absolute self-sufficiency" in staple grains, aiming to reduce reliance on imports. The law provides a legal framework to enhance food production, protect farmland, preserve germplasm resources, and prevent wastage, though implementation details are sparse. It reflects China's urgency to address production challenges like limited arable land, water resources, labor shortages, and insufficient agricultural technology. The law mandates central and provincial governments to integrate food security into their development plans and supports a national food security strategy focused on moderate imports and scientific advances. Violations may incur fines, and the law includes provisions for a national grain emergency plan and monitoring system. However, analysts believe the law largely formalizes existing practices and is unlikely to significantly impact food production policies.  Reuters

VIDEO- CBS Face The Nation interview on Afghanistan. Cipher Brief Expert, Retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, in his new book, criticizes the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan as "one of the worst negotiating mistakes" made by the U.S. He attributes this to the policy objective shared by both former President Donald Trump, who negotiated the withdrawal, and President Joe Biden, who implemented it, of leaving Afghanistan despite the potential consequences. McKenzie expressed these views in an interview with "Face the Nation."  CBS News

Europe

Putin reshuffles Russia’s military leadership.Russian President Putin's recent shake-up at the defense ministry includes the ouster of long-time defense minister Sergei Shoigu and the arrest of five senior officials under the guise of an anti-corruption campaign. The timing follows recent Russian battlefield successes in Ukraine and a major U.S. military aid package for Ukraine. The overhaul appears influenced by the late Yevgeny Prigozhin's criticisms of corruption and incompetence within the ministry. Prigozhin, former leader of Russia’s Wagner mercenaries, was killed in a suspicious plane crash in August after criticizing corruption and incompetence in the defense ministry. Shoigu was reassigned, while new appointees like Andrey Belousov and Oleg Savelyev will aim to procure weapons more quickly and economically. Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov's position remains uncertain. CNN

Germany’s Scholz says allies will defend 'every square inch' of NATO territory. On Sunday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that NATO's move to bolster its eastern border will deter Russia. Speaking at the Eastern German Economic Forum with Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, Scholz highlighted Germany's leading role in NATO's Baltic presence. "And because the threat from Russia will continue, we and other allies decided last year to deploy additional units to the Baltic states and to station an entire brigade there permanently in the future," Scholz said. "But this turnaround in security policy is necessary to show Russia: We are prepared to defend every square inch of NATO territory against attacks." Reuters 

Belgian EU presidency urges governments to move toward muzzling Hungary.Belgium, which currently holds the rotating European Union presidency, urges governments to consider advancing the Article 7 censure procedure against Hungary, potentially depriving Budapest of its voting rights in the 27-nation bloc. Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib cited Hungary's obstruction of Ukrainian military aid and sanctions against Russia. “We have a Europe that is making difficult headway, with unfortunately some states — one state in particular — increasingly adopting a transactional, blocking and veto attitude,” Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib told Politico. in an interview. This call comes as Hungary is set to take over the EU presidency next month, potentially influencing the EU agenda. European countries are also exploring ways to bypass Hungary's vetoes in critical EU decisions. Politico 

Gas pipeline deal between Russia and China reportedly stalls over price disagreements. Russia's efforts to finalize a major gas pipeline deal with China have stalled due to Beijing's stringent price and supply demands. China has insisted on paying close to Russia's heavily subsidized domestic prices and committing to only a tiny fraction of the pipeline's 50 billion cubic meter (bcm) capacity. This impasse highlights Russia's growing dependence on China amid the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. The pipeline is crucial for Gazprom, which has faced plummeting gas sales to Europe and lost $6.9 billion last year. The absence of Gazprom's CEO from Vladimir Putin's recent Beijing visit underscores the deal's difficulties. China’s needs and Russia’s lack of alternatives pressure Gazprom to accept China’s terms. Gazprom’s exports to Europe fell to 22 bcm in 2023 from an average of 230 bcm a year in the decade before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. These are likely to dwindle further once a transshipment agreement with Ukraine expires at the end of the year.Financial Times  

European election: EU struggles to counter Russian disinformation. The European Union's disinformation-busting team, Stratcom, debunked a Russian-language video falsely claiming Polish citizens were fleeing to Belarus. This video was part of a broader Russian disinformation campaign ahead of the European Parliament elections, which repurposes pro-Kremlin content to target EU audiences. Russia has been accused of using disinformation to influence public opinion globally, including in the U.S. and Europe. Despite warnings of increased disinformation, measuring its impact remains difficult. The EU's fragmented response, varying by country, struggles against coordinated disinformation efforts. The EU's new Digital Services Act aims to push Big Tech to combat illegal and harmful content, while the rise of AI has exacerbated the spread of misinformation.  Reuters

Middle East

Iran’s hard-line former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad registers for June 28 presidential election. Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has registered as a candidate for Iran's upcoming presidential election, seeking to regain his position after the recent death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. Ahmadinejad's candidacy puts pressure on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whom he has openly challenged in the past. His registration comes amid heightened tensions between Iran and the West over Iran's nuclear program, its support for Russia in the Ukraine war, and regional proxy conflicts. Ahmadinejad has pledged to seek constructive engagement with the world and improve economic relations. The election, set for June 28, will see other prominent candidates, but it is uncertain who will be allowed to run by the Guardian Council.  Associated Press

China, UAE ready to trade defense and security experiences. China and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have agreed to enhance cooperation on defense and security, aiming to upgrade their military and security capabilities through increased exchanges and joint activities. This announcement followed a meeting between UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. The agreement includes mutual participation in training, exhibitions, and other official events. Additionally, China and the UAE plan to explore joint ventures in energy sectors such as crude oil reserves, renewable energy, petrochemicals, and nuclear energy projects. The move is part of China's broader strategy to expand its influence in the Gulf region, countering U.S. presence. Reuters 

China seeks greater prominence in Middle East region. China is positioning itself as a friendlier global power to the Middle East amid U.S. criticism over its support for Israel in the Gaza conflict. Chinese leader Xi Jinping hosted a China-Arab states conference in Beijing, emphasizing economic cooperation and development while criticizing the U.S.'s approach to the Gaza war. Despite China's efforts, the Gaza conflict highlighted the U.S.'s predominant influence in the region. Xi's keynote speech at the conference reiterated China's support for a two-state solution and mutual respect in international relations. Beijing's strategy focuses on economic investment rather than political or security involvement, aiming to use its relationships with Middle Eastern countries as leverage against Washington. However, China continues to show reluctance to offer a security presence, as demonstrated by its limited response to attacks in the Red Sea.  Wall Street Journal

Africa

U.S. concludes major drills, seeks to strengthen ties in Africa. U.S. and African military officials observed exercises involving tanks, artillery, and F-16s during African Lion, Washington’s largest annual joint military exercise in Africa. The event, concluding in Morocco, involved 8,100 troops from nearly 36 nations conducting maneuvers in Tunisia, Ghana, Senegal, and Morocco. U.S. and Moroccan generals celebrated the 20-year anniversary of African Lion, highlighting expanded training and partnerships since 2004. Despite these efforts, Africa faces growing concerns, with the UN labeling the continent a "global epicenter for terrorism." Extremist violence has surged in the Sahel, leading to military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger since 2020. The U.S. continues to maintain influence by combining weapons aid and intelligence sharing with initiatives to bolster civilian institutions. However, it faces competition from Chinese and Russian support. African Lion demonstrated a comprehensive approach to instability, including humanitarian efforts, contrasting with Russia's militaristic Africa Corps. Associated Press 

South Korea's Yoon hosts Africa summit to tap minerals, vast export market.  South Korea is hosting a summit with leaders from 48 African nations to discuss partnerships on industrial infrastructure and digital transformation. President Yoon Suk Yeol emphasizes Africa as a crucial partner for South Korea's industrial advancements, highlighting the continent's rich mineral resources and vast market potential. The summit, attended by at least 30 heads of state, aims to strengthen cooperation on investment, industrial development, and food security. South Korea is looking to leverage Africa's critical minerals for its energy and semiconductor industries. Tanzania plans to borrow $2.5 billion from South Korea, while Ethiopia signed a $1 billion financing deal for various development projects. The summit also seeks to establish groundwork for trade and investment, as well as cooperation on agricultural technology and climate change responses. Reuters

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Thousands of internet-facing devices vulnerable to Check Point VPN zero-day.  A significant vulnerability (CVE-2024-24919) in Check Point's VPN software has been discovered, affecting thousands of internet-facing devices globally. The bug allows hackers to access sensitive information and gain network privileges. Despite Check Point releasing a fix, exploitation attempts have been noted since April 7. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) confirmed active attacks exploiting this vulnerability. Research from Censys revealed 13,800 potentially exposed devices, with most located in Japan and Italy. The affected products include Quantum Spark Gateway, Quantum Security Gateway, CloudGuard Network, Quantum Maestro, and Quantum Scalable Chassis. Most exposed devices are Quantum Spark Gateways, indicating smaller commercial organizations are primarily affected. Check Point is collaborating with impacted customers, emphasizing the need for robust security practices. The vulnerability's severity score was increased from 7.5 to 8.6. David Redekop of ADAMnetworks highlighted the widespread use of these products in banking and finance, marking them as prime targets for cybercriminals.  The Record 

Entertainment giant Ticketmaster confirms cybersecurity incident. Ticketmaster, owned by Live Nation Entertainment, acknowledged a cybersecurity incident involving unauthorized access to a third-party cloud database containing company data. The breach, disclosed via a Securities and Exchange Commission filing, was first noticed on May 20. The incident was made public when a hacker named “ShinyHunters” advertised the stolen data for sale. Censys researchers identified 13,800 potentially affected internet-facing devices. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency confirmed exploitation of the vulnerability. Concurrently, the Department of Justice and state attorneys have filed an antitrust lawsuit against Live Nation and Ticketmaster. Additionally, an Israeli firm, Hudson Rock, suggested the breach could be linked to other incidents involving Snowflake, a cloud storage company. Snowflake's investigation found unauthorized access to demo accounts, not involving its core systems. The situation is under investigation, with global law enforcement and cybersecurity agencies involved.  Cyberscoop 

Cloud company Snowflake denies that reported breach originated with its products. Cloud storage provider Snowflake is denying responsibility for a data breach affecting its clients, including Ticketmaster and Santander Bank. Hackers from the ShinyHunters group claim to have stolen personal data from 560 million Ticketmaster customers and 30 million Santander customers. Researchers at Hudson Rock initially suggested that the breach involved Snowflake's systems, citing stolen credentials used to access a Snowflake employee’s account. However, Snowflake maintains that the breach did not result from any vulnerability or misconfiguration in its products, attributing the incident to exposed customer credentials. Snowflake confirmed unauthorized access to a former employee’s demo account but emphasized that it did not contain sensitive data. Despite Hudson Rock's claims of a significant breach, Snowflake insists there is no pathway for customers' credentials to be compromised from its production environment. Santander acknowledged an incident involving customer data but stated no transactional data or online banking details were compromised. Ticketmaster has yet to confirm the breach.  The Record 

OpenAI Says Russia and China Used Its A.I. in Covert Campaigns.  OpenAI has identified and disrupted five online influence campaigns using its AI technology to manipulate public opinion and geopolitics. These campaigns, conducted by state actors and private entities from Russia, China, Iran, and Israel, leveraged AI to generate social media posts, translate and edit articles, write headlines, and debug programs. Despite the concerns, the influence operations failed to gain significant traction or expand their impact. OpenAI's report highlights how AI tools have been used in these campaigns, raising questions about the technology's role in spreading disinformation. The report also notes that the AI tools did not create the overwhelming disinformation flood that many experts had feared.  NY Times 

News site Grayzone editor’s ties to Iran, Russia show misinformation’s complexity.  Recently unearthed documents reveal that leaders of the online news site Grayzone have received funding from both Russian and Iranian government media outlets. The documents show payments from Iran's Press TV to a writer who also worked for Russia's Sputnik news outlet, highlighting the increasing complexity of foreign influence operations. This convergence of funding sources is making it harder to identify and trace misinformation as the U.S. election approaches. Misinformation experts express concern that the spread of falsehoods and propaganda online is entering a more complicated stage. Despite the First Amendment's protections for free speech, the intertwining of foreign funds and disinformation poses a critical threat to U.S. democracy.  Washington Post 

Nvidia unveils next generation of AI chips in bid to entrench market lead.  Nvidia unveiled its next generation of artificial intelligence processors, "Rubin," just months after announcing its "Blackwell" chips. This move highlights Nvidia's drive to maintain its dominance in AI processors, which has significantly boosted its market value. Rubin, set to ship in 2026, aims to improve power efficiency to address concerns about the energy demands of AI data centers. The announcement at the Computex conference in Taipei included new AI chip deals with PC makers Asus and MSI, which will integrate Nvidia's GeForce RTX graphics processing units for AI-enhanced tasks. Nvidia's rapid innovation pace is crucial as it faces growing competition from AMD, Intel, and custom chips from cloud providers like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Additionally, Nvidia announced a new Vera Arm-based CPU to expand its presence in AI data centers, traditionally dominated by Intel and AMD. The shift towards AI-integrated PCs, expected to constitute 65% of PC shipments by 2028, is seen as the most significant innovation since the World Wide Web.  Financial Times 

Microsoft Warns of Surge in Cyber Attacks Targeting Internet-Exposed OT Devices.  Microsoft has warned about a surge in cyber attacks targeting internet-exposed operational technology (OT) devices, emphasizing the need for enhanced security measures. The attacks, which have been ongoing since late 2023, exploit vulnerabilities in OT systems such as weak passwords and outdated software, leading to tampering with industrial processes and potential system outages. The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and companies like Rockwell Automation have also issued advisories due to heightened geopolitical tensions and adversarial cyber activities. The recent Israel-Hamas conflict has exacerbated the situation, with groups affiliated with Iran targeting OT assets developed by Israeli companies. To mitigate these risks, organizations are advised to reduce their attack surfaces and implement zero trust practices.  The Hacker News

Mysterious Cyber Attack Took Down 600,000+ Routers in the U.S.  A cyber attack, codenamed Pumpkin Eclipse, has bricked over 600,000 small office/home office (SOHO) routers across the U.S., rendering them permanently inoperable and necessitating hardware replacements. The attack, occurring from October 25-27, 2023, targeted a single unidentified internet service provider (ISP) and affected three specific router models: ActionTec T3200, ActionTec T3260, and Sagemcom. The incident, which removed 49% of the ISP's modems, is attributed to the Chalubo remote access trojan (RAT), known for its stealth and capability to perform DDoS attacks. The exact breach method remains unclear, though weak credentials or exposed interfaces are suspected. The attack's scale and specificity, impacting a single ASN, are unprecedented, with previous occurrences like AcidRain only happening once before during a military invasion.  The Hacker News

Trend Micro taps Nvidia software tools for AI cybersecurity offering. Trend Micro announced its collaboration with Nvidia to develop new AI-powered cybersecurity tools aimed at protecting data centers where AI operations take place. These tools, showcased at the Computex conference in Taiwan, will run on Nvidia's chips and are designed to detect intruders and ensure data access is limited to authorized users. As businesses centralize data to train AI systems for various tasks, they become more attractive targets for hackers. Trend Micro's focus includes preventing unauthorized data snooping in AI systems, particularly in chatbots where sensitive information might be shared through user queries. This initiative aims to secure the data from unauthorized access and ensure it remains within the intended boundaries.  Reuters

Report Info

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Kasia Kucharski, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Leighton Durham, Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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