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Monday, June 19, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Blinken Visits Beijing, Meets With China’s Xi.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a two-day visit to Beijing over the weekend, capping his trip with a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in an effort by both Washington and Beijing to manage relations and de-escalate tensions.  Xi reportedly said both sides have made “progress” in talks and that China seeks a “sound and steady” relationship with the U.S.  Blinken said while he did not secure an agreement for regular military-to-military communications, he is expecting further senior engagement between U.S. and Chinese officials in the coming weeks, which some observers are hoping will culminate into a summit between Xi and President Joe Biden later this year.  Blinken is the first U.S. secretary of state to meet with Xi since 2018.  He also met his Chinese counterpart, Qin Gang, for talks, which Blinken said were “candid and constructive.”  The two ended talks with an agreement to continue discussions in Washington.  Blinken also met China’s top diplomat Wang Yi, who said both the U.S. and China should take a “responsible attitude” to their relations, though he added that the U.S. perception of China is to blame for heightened tensions.  Notably, China remained pointed on the Taiwan issue; Xi called on the U.S. to not “hurt China’s legitimate rights and interests” in key flashpoints like Taiwan, and Wang said China has “no room for compromise and concessions” in regards to the island.  Blinken emphasized the need to avoid a crisis over Taiwan since it would likely lead to a “global crisis” given the island’s economic importance in areas like commercial container traffic and semiconductor production.  Al Jazeera CNN Reuters South China Morning Post

Experts Disagree Over US President’s Authority to Declassify Nuclear-related Information.  Reuters is out with a new report that examines whether or not a US President has the power to unilaterally declassify certain types of classified information related to nuclear weapons.  At issue is the legal case facing former President Donald Trump who, facing charges under the Espionage Act, is accused of improperly handling classified documents after he left office.  Trump claims to have declassified the documents but some legal experts say that a president’s power to declassify does automatically extend to certain types of information related to US nuclear weapons and operations.  Citing legislation created in 1954 known as the Atomic Energy Act which they say exempts nuclear information from authority under the Executive Branch and requires declassification to be coordinated among the Department of Energy and the Department of Defense.  Other legal experts disagree with that assessment and say that Presidential authority extends over all classified information, including that covered under the Atomic Energy Act.  Reuters

Dominican Republic Denies Agreement with Canada on Haitian Police Aid Office.  The Dominican Republic’s Foreign Minister Roberto Alvarez on Friday contradicted Canadian FM Melanie Joly’s announcement that Canada would set up an office in the DR to coordinate aid and support police in the embattled Haiti. On social media, Alvarez denied that a deal had been struck, despite Joly’s Thursday statement thanking her Dominican counterpart for offering a base for police support. The Canadian foreign ministry subsequently told Reuters that discussions "to finalize a location that will support the group's work in geographical proximity to Haiti" continue. The contentious relationship between Haiti and the DR has frayed significantly since last-year’s surge of gang violence, and Santo Domingo has both increased border security and sent tens of thousands of refugees escaping conflict back to Haiti.  Reuters

Western Europe

NATO Fails to Agree on Response to Russian Attack.  On Friday, NATO Defense Ministers failed to come to an agreement on how to respond to a potential attack by Russia on NATO allied nations. This was the first time the alliance has sought to update its defense strategy since the end of the Cold War. One minister blamed Turkey for blocking the approval due to wording of geographical locations. There is still potential to find a solution before NATO’s July summit. As NATO has not drawn up a large-scale defense plan in several decades, efforts to do so signify a major shift in the alliance.  Reuters 

Sweden Seeks to Adapt Defenses to ‘Long-Term’ Russian Threat.  A special Swedish parliamentary defense committee said Monday that Swedish defenses must adapt to the “long-term threat” from Russia’s higher propensity for military aggression, underscoring that an attack “cannot be ruled out.”  The committee’s warning comes amid the Ukraine war, which it said could escalate into attacks on other countries, and even nuclear conflict. The committee will now work on long-term defense plans, including spending, with a final report due in April next year.  Reuters

Stoltenberg Likely to Be Asked to Prolong Term as NATO Chief.  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is expected to be asked to extend his term as the head of NATO for another year, Reuters reported, based on a source that requested anonymity. With the alliance’s July summit fast approaching, Stoltenberg has already extended his 9-year term three times and had been widely expected to step down in September.  Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Ukraine Liberates Village, Hits Russian Ammo Depot In Counteroffensive.  Ukraine’s military continues to make what many consider moderate progress in its counteroffensive.  A Russian-installed official reported on Sunday that Ukrainian forces had recaptured the village of Piatykhatky in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, the second settlement taken in the area by Ukrainian troops.  He said that fighting is ongoing in the area, adding that Ukraine’s “'wave-like' offensives yielded results, despite enormous losses."  Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Air Force reported on Sunday that it hit a “significant” Russian ammunition depot near the Russian-occupied port city of Henichesk in the Kherson region.  Separately, Ukraine’s military added that it hit several other Russian targets on Sunday, including “three command posts, two areas of manpower concentration, five ammunition depots, and three artillery units.”  Russian-backed officials confirmed Ukrainian shelling in the Kherson region, claiming that Russian air defenses intercepted most missiles and rockets.  CNN Reuters

African Peace Delegation to Ukraine/Russia Viewed Largely as Failure..  Fighting in Ukraine raged while a delegation of African leaders visited both Ukraine and Russia in a largely failed bid to encourage peace negotiations.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with the group in Kyiv on Friday, reiterating Kyiv’s position that it will not enter peace talks until all Russian forces withdraw from occupied Ukrainian territory and that any negotiations held now would just “freeze the war.”  In the group’s follow up meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on Saturday, Putin accused Ukraine of refusing to agree to peace talks.  Despite the pushback from both Ukraine and Russia, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said that the African mission was "impactful and its ultimate success will be measured on the objective, which is stopping the war.”  He also said that he and other African leaders — who have been navigating economic links with the West, close ties with Russia, and reliance on Ukrainian grain — will continue to engage with both Ukraine and Russia.  Reuters

NY Times Investigation Suggests Russia Blew Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine.  The New York Times reports that there is evidence that suggests Russia was responsible for the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in southern Ukraine.  The report says engineers and explosive experts found evidence that the blast was caused by an explosive charge that was detonated in a passageway in the dam’s concrete base.  Since Russian forces occupied the dam at the time of the blast, the report says they likely planted  the explosives that caused it.  Despite this conclusion, the report says that the cause of the dam’s collapse can only be determined after a full examination of the dam after water drains, though it added that engineers believe design flaws or natural erosion are unlikely causes.  Ukraine has said it is “highly likely” that Russia caused the explosion, while Moscow has accused Kyiv of sabotaging the dam to cut water supplies to Russian-occupied Crimea and “distract” from difficulties in Ukraine's counteroffensive in the region.  New York Times Reuters

Putin Claims a Strong Russian Economy and Hints and Nuclear Weapon Use.  Russian President Vladimir Putin says that the Russian economy is achieving growth in multiple sectors, evidence Putin says that western sanctions against Moscow have largely failed. His comments came during a keynote address at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum on Friday.  Putin also stressed the need to increase Russian defense spending, the increased use of rubles in trade with countries in the Eurasian Economic Union and China.  Turning to the Ukraine war, he said that Kyiv’s reliance on outside help is unsustainable and warned that there is a “serious danger” of NATO being further drawn into the war if it continues to support Ukraine.  And he said attacks on Russia’s western border regions are only an “attempt to distract us” to pull Russian forces from the frontline in Ukraine.  Separately, Putin also confirmed that Russia has deployed its first tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, adding that the use of nuclear weapons is “theoretically possible” if Russia is threatened.  Al Jazeera Associated Press BBC Reuters

Asia and Oceania

China Condemns UK Security Minister Meeting With Taiwanese Digital Minister.  Britain’s security minister, Tom Tugendhat, met with Taiwanese Digital Affairs Minister Audrey Tang on Wednesday in a rare ministerial level exchange.  Media reports say the two discussed mutual security interests.  China’s Embassy in London condemned the meeting on Sunday, saying it violated the one-China principle, encourages “separatist forces for ‘Taiwan independence,’” and interferes in China’s internal affairs.  Tugendhat is not a full cabinet minister, but attends cabinet meetings as the official in charge of counter-terrorism, domestic state threats and economic crime issues.  Reuters

North Korea Holds Key Defense Strategy Meeting.  North Korea held a three-day meeting of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) over the weekend to discuss the country’s defense and diplomatic strategy amid a “changed international situation.”  North Korean state media said that the country’s leader, Kim Jong Un, attended the meeting, without providing further details.  The South Korean government noted that it was “extremely rare” for North Korea not to report on a speech by Kim at such a meeting.  Notably, North Korean state media reported on Monday that the meeting acknowledged North Korea’s recent failed satellite launch as the “gravest failure” and that officials “who irresponsibly conducted operations” were “bitterly criticized.”  The report added that North Korea will continue to work towards a successful launch.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Blinken Supports ‘Mature’ China-South Korea Relations.  South Korea’s foreign ministry said on Saturday that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken backs South Korean efforts to develop a “healthy and mature” cooperative relationship with China.  The ministry said Blinken voiced his support for constructive ties between Seoul and Beijing in a call with South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin.  The two officials’ conversation focused on threats from North Korea.  Blinken reportedly urged Park that the U.S., Japan and South Korea should work to encourage China to play a bigger role in managing Pyongyang and supporting denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.  Reuters

US-Singapore Foreign Ministers Are Pessimistic on Myanmar, but Thailand Seeks to Re-engage.  The state of Myanmar’s politics has shown virtually no signs of improving since a coup two years ago, according to Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, after his meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who echoed that sentiment. In February 2021, the country's democratically elected ruling party was deposed by the military, which then transferred power to a presiding military junta. Since then, the military has been engaged in fighting against a pro-democracy resistance movement. The resulting civil war has effectively kept Myanmar barred from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). But Thailand’s foreign minister over the weekend reportedly proposed re-engaging with Myanmar’s leadership.  Reuters U.S. Department of State

Middle East and Northern Africa

Russia Says Regional Free Trade Deal with Iran Possible by End of Year.  Russia’s state TASS agency reported Monday that a free trade zone deal between Iran, Russia, and some other Eurasian nations may be established before the end of the year.  In a TASS agency interview, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk said that discussions for the free trade zone between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union — which includes Russia, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, and Kazakhstan — are in final stages.  Moscow’s interest in Iran and Eurasia has increased due to sanctions imposed by the West in retaliation for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions have restricted options for trade and made it necessary to find foreign markets outside of Europe. Overchuk added that the nations also seek the formation of a common gas market.  Reuters

Russia to Open Consular Office in Jerusalem.  The Russian Embassy in Israel and Israel’s foreign ministry announced that Russia is opening consular offices in Jerusalem. The office will be built on a West Jerusalem land plot purchased by Russian in 1885.  Russia is expected to build the consular offices within 5-10 years, according to Russian Ambassador to Israel Anatoly Viktorov. Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said the plan is a diplomatic achievement that helps Israel fulfill its goals to increase the number of foreign missions in Jerusalem.  Reuters

Israel to Build Fiber Optic Cable to Link Europe, Asia.  The Israeli Finance Ministry said Sunday that Israel will install a 158 mile long fiber-optic cable between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean to link Europe and nations in the Gulf and Asia. According to the ministry, the Israel-backed energy group Europe Asia Pipeline Company (EAPC) will construct the cable along an already existing oil pipeline it operates across Israel.  The cable will connect to subsea links that reach Israel and will be made available to any telecommunications company licensed in Israel under a 25-year lease.  Reuters 

India to Advocate for Full G20 Membership for African Union.  An official source reports that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has written to the heads of the G20 nations to suggest that the African Union (AU) be granted full, permanent membership at the group’s upcoming summit in India. The official said the proposal highlights India’s resolution to aid in bolstering Africa’s representation in global affairs, underscoring that admitting the AU, a continental body of 55 member states, is the “right step towards a just, fair, more inclusive and representative global architecture and governance.” India currently holds the 12-month presidency of the Group of 20.  At this year’s summit, the G20, which consists of 19 nations and the EU, also invited international organizations such as the UN, WHO, IMF, and the World Bank, and several “guest” countries to attend.  Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

Mali Demands UN Peacekeeping Mission Withdraw.  Mali’s military junta on Friday asked for the UN peacekeeping force deployed in the country to leave “without delay” due to a “crisis of confidence” between Malian authorities and the UN mission.  Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop cited “mistrust” between Mali and the UN force, known as MINUSMA, as the reason for the request for its withdrawal, which comes as the country continues to face a mounting Islamist insurgency.  The UN Security Council must vote to extend MINUSMA’s mandate by June 30.  Germany, which said late last year it will begin withdrawing its forces from Mali, said the latest demand targeting MINSUMA is politically motivated, adding that the German withdrawal is still on track for completion by May 2024.  Al Jazeera BBC Reuters 

U.S. Denounces “Horrific Violence” in Sudan.  State Department spokesman Matthew Miller denounced the human rights violations and terrible violence of Sudan’s two month old conflict, which has killed at least 1,000 people and displaced 2.2 million. Particularly worrying, Miller says, is the ethnic violence perpetrated by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied armed groups in West Darfur. Miller said that “the atrocities” happening currently in the region and others “are an ominous reminder of the horrific events that led the United States to determine in 2004 that genocide had been committed in Darfur." He also reported that Washington condemns the murder of West Darfur Governor Khamis Abbakar, who was killed Wednesday after accusing the RSF of committing a genocide. The US additionally criticized Sudan’s Armed Forces for failing to prevent violence against the people and for reportedly fueling “conflict by encouraging mobilization of tribes." Reuters

Uganda Deploys Soldiers to Find ADF Attackers Who Killed 41 Students.   Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni on Sunday deployed more troops and helicopters to the west of the nation to pursue assailants from the Islamic State-linked group, Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), who on Friday reportedly killed 41 students at Lhubirira Secondary School in Mpondwe. 6 more students were abducted by the attackers and taken across the border into the Democratic Republic of the Congo, according to military and police. Various media sources have claimed different numbers of deaths, some even reporting 42 dead. Museveni condemned them in a statement, saying, “"Their action, the desperate, cowardly, terrorist action, therefore, will not save them. We are bringing new forces to the Uganda side as we continue the hunting on the Congo side." Investigations into lapses in security have been launched. ADF first began their rebellion against Museveni in the 1990’s, but were nearly defeated by the military. The remaining members continue their insurrection from the jungles of the Congo, and attack both the military and civilians in Uganda and the Congo. The group, which the United States has classified as a terrorist organization, has killed hundreds of people.  Reuters Al Jazeera 

Cyber and Tech

U.S. Government Reward, Additional MOVEit Vulnerabilities Lead Clop Hack News.  The “Rewards for Justice” program of the U.S. State Department has announced a reward of up to $10 million for information that ties the Clop ransomware attacks to a foreign government.  The program’s Twitter account announced the reward, inviting tips that link the ransomware gang to attacks on U.S. critical infrastructure.  The reward announcement comes in the wake of a series of Clop-attributed cyberattacks on MOVEit file transfer technology, including on multiple U.S. government systems.  Meanwhile, a third reported vulnerability in the MOVEit tool heightened concerns among government and private cybersecurity experts.  Progress Software, which produces MOVEit, said that an “independent source” discovered the new vulnerability.  The bug reportedly could grant hackers with privileges and possible unauthorized access to a target system.  A Progress Software spokesperson said that it has not “seen indications that this new vulnerability has been exploited.”  Along with the MOVEit manufacturer, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency urged organizations to review Progress’ advisory about the bug.  This development joins the reported Clop ransomware demands directed at Department of Energy component systems last week, which included its nuclear waste facility and scientific education facility.  Systems at a DOE contractor, Oak Ridge Associated Universities and a New Mexico-based disposal facility for defense-related nuclear waste, were breached in the Clop attack and data was “compromised.”  BleepingComputer   TheRecord   Reuters

EU Commission Recommends Member States Ban Huawei, ZTE Technology ‘Without Delay’.  EU member states have been directed by the European Commission to bar high-risk equipment suppliers from 5G networks “without delay.”  The Commission specifically cited Chinese firms Huawei and ZTE as representing a “materially higher” risk and comes in the wake of a progress report on 5G cybersecurity that reported all but three member states have approved or are in process of concluding laws that would empower such restrictions.  The three member states that have not done so were not identified.  The Commission’s statement technically is a recommendation that is subject to the decisions of member states.  Thierry Breton, the EU internal market commissioner, expressed disappointment with the pace of member state exclusions of high-risk vendors, saying “this is too slow, and it poses a major security risk and exposes the Union's collective security.”  The progress report noted that the status quo contributes to “a clear risk of persisting dependency on high-risk suppliers in the internal market” with “potentially serious negative impacts on security… across the EU and the EU's critical infrastructure.”  A Huawei statement acknowledged the Commission’s responsibility to protect the security of European systems but said “restrictions or exclusions based on discriminatory judgments will pose serious economic and social risks. It would hamper innovation and distort the EU market.”   TheRecord   South China Morning Post

Taiwan Calls For Closer Ties with EU Amid Expansions in Chips Investments.  During a trip to Europe, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu called on the continent’s leadership to strengthen relations with Taiwan if they wanted sustained Taiwanese investment in semiconductor production. The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp (TSMC) widely considered the world's largest contract chipmaker, which also specializes in the sorts of advanced chips required for the development of artificial intelligence and quantum computing, requires government approval for development of a potential factory in Germany. Taiwan currently does not have formal diplomatic ties with any European country, with the exception of the Vatican. Reuters 

Israeli Prime Minister Touts $25 Billion Intel Investment in Domestic Chip Facility.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Sunday that Intel will invest $25 billion in an upgrade of the company’s manufacturing facilities in Israel.  A second-phase $15 billion project joins Intel’s $10 billion expansion project announced two years ago.  The wafer fabrication facility, according to an Intel executive, will further the company’s efforts to locate more chip manufacturing outside Asia, and boost Intel’s competition with chip giants like Taiwan’s TSMC.  Netanyahu said the new factory would be the “largest investment” ever made in Israel, adding to the complex in Kiryat Gat, where Intel already has a facility.  An Intel statement on the plan said its motivation is to meet “future manufacturing needs,” adding its appreciation for the Israeli government’s continuing support.  The Israeli finance ministry said in addition to employing thousands of new workers, the project would result in Intel paying a local tax rate of 7.5 percent, up from 5 percent.  Financial Times   Wall Street Journal   Bloomberg   Reuters

Ukraine Data Protection Chief Reports Persistence of Pro-Russian Hackers.  Victor Zhora, the deputy chairman of Ukraine’s communications and data protection agency, has reported that pro-Russian hackers are continuing cyberattacks against Ukrainian targets as Ukrainian forces continue with counteroffensive operations.  “The activity is still very high” Zhora said, adding that the hacking campaigns are directed at Ukrainian service providers, media and critical infrastructure, and on extracting data from government networks.  Zhora said his agency is expecting the pace of hacks to accelerate.  On Friday, the Russian hacktivists known as Killnet announced that they had conducted attacks against the IBAN and SWIFT financial networks although no evidence of breaches was detected.  Also last week a pro-Russian hacking group known as Beregini posted what It claimed to be a U.S. Department of Defense document describing efforts of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group to speed up deliveries to Ukraine of air defense systems.  CyberScoop described the group’s publication of the document as an indication of how hack-and-leak operations have become key tools in the cyberwarfare dimension of the conflict.  CyberScoop

Microsoft Confirms Early June Outages Resulted from DDoS Cyberattacks.  Microsoft has confirmed that service outages on its Outlook and Azure platforms in early June resulted from cyberattacks although the company said there is no evidence that customer data was affected.   The company monitored distributed denial-of-service attacks by a threat actor it identified as Storm-1359, commonly known as Anonymous Sudan.  A Microsoft post on Friday said the outages were caused by a “Layer 7 DDoS attack” resulting in an application being overwhelmed by a surge in system requests.  BleepingComputer notes that Anonymous Sudan began DDoS attacks in June on web-accessible portals for Outlook, Azure, and OneDrive.  The group demanded $1 million to stop the attacks.  They taunted the company with a post that read, in part "…how about you pay us 1,000,000 USD and we teach your cyber-security experts how to repel the attack and we stop the attack from our end?”  Reuters   BleepingComputer

Major Media Outlets, Generative AI Firms in Discussions Over Copyright Payments.  Google and Microsoft are among the largest tech firms in the world currently in negotiations with media outlets concerning the content used to train AI technology.  Publishers including the Financial Times, New York Times, and the Guardian reportedly are in discussions with one or more of the tech firms.  The talks are described as being in the early stages and involve the possible payment of subscription fees by technology platforms to media sources for the use of their content in training language models.  To this point, some content creators and photo artists have begun legal action against generative AI firms like Stability AI and OpenAI alleging contractual and copyright infringement.  The Financial Times noted that “as a subscriptions business, we need to protect the value of our journalism and our business model. Engaging in constructive dialogue with the relevant companies…is the best way to achieve that.”  It is thought that an agreement between media and AI entrepreneurs could create a framework for news organizations and generative AI companies around the globe.  Financial Times

FTC Files Complaint Against Genetic Data Company for Exposing Sensitive Information. A unilateral action by a genetics health testing firm is the basis of a complaint by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) of the company’s failure to protect sensitive health information.  According to the FTC, 1health (previously known at Vitagene), a California-based genetics data firm, retroactively changed privacy policies, misleading customers about the company’s process for deleting data.  An FTC statement explained, “the FTC Act prohibits companies from unilaterally applying material privacy policy changes to previously collected data.” The FTC complaint specifies that Vitagene stored nearly 2,400 records belonging to at least 227 consumers in publicly accessible areas of Amazon Web Services, thereby exposing sensitive consumer and raw genetic data.  Vitagene claimed that it did not store DNA results connected with identifying information.  The FTC said the company deceived customers by failing to follow through with promises that customers could delete their data at any time. The company later shared customer information with third parties without notifying customers of the change.  CyberScoop

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