Report for Monday, July 22, 2024

THE TOP HEADLINES IN TODAY'S REPORT

Biden announces end of re-election campaign amid mounting criticism, endorses Harris

Confusion remains over Trump security failure as Secret Service Chief heads to Congress

Blinken says Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal close

CISA director faults CrowdStrike for not ensuring defect-free software update

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

National Security Lessons from Crowdstrike’s Global Disaster  The Cipher Brief

Putin’s Maskirova and his Preference for U.S. President  The Cipher Brief

Former Homeland Security Head: CrowdStrike Outage is an IT Wakeup Call  The Cipher Brief 

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Israel bombs central Gaza, Rafah.  Israeli forces killed at least eight Palestinians in the Al-Nuseirat refugee camp area Friday.  Israel's aerial and tank shelling of central Gaza has intensified over the past week, killing dozens. Residents said the Israeli army blew up dozens of homes there in the past three days. Israeli troops engaged Hamas militants in Rafah city in the south, where health officials said another five residents were killed. Palestinian health officials said eight people were killed in two separate Israeli air strikes on two houses Friday in Al-Nuseirat. The armed wings of the Islamic Jihad and Hamas Islamist militant groups said fighters confronted Israeli forces with anti-tank rockets and mortar bombs. The Israeli military said its soldiers had killed a group of fighters who were moving towards them, and destroyed ammunition, tunnel shafts and infrastructure in Tel al-Sultan, in the eastern part of the city. Reuters  Reuters 

Blinken says Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal close.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Friday a long-sought ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was “inside the 10-yard line and driving toward the goal line.”  He said that discussions with Netanyahu, who visits Washington July 24,  would likely center around drafting a clear plan for what follows after the war Reuters 

Houthis Launch Deadly Drone Strike on Tel Aviv, Evading Israel’s Defenses.  A drone fired by the Houthi militia in Yemen evaded Israel’s Iron Dome and slammed into an apartment building near the United States Embassy branch office in Tel Aviv early Friday, killing at least one person and wounding eight others. Pentagon officials expressed doubt that the drone had specifically targeted the U.S. building, an attack that analysts assessed had possibly been an attempt by the Houthis to strike anywhere they could in Tel Aviv. NY Times  Reuters  Reuters  Reuters 

Netanyahu heads to Washington, says Israel will remain key US ally whoever replaces Biden. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, before departing for Washington, affirmed Israel's unwavering alliance with the United States, irrespective of the upcoming U.S. presidential election results. This visit, Netanyahu's first since returning to office in late 2022, is crucial amid strained U.S.-Israel relations. Netanyahu plans to thank President Biden, discuss the release of Israeli hostages in Gaza, and address Congress on U.S.-Israeli cooperation against regional threats like Hamas and Iran. Despite months of tension over Israel's military actions in Gaza, Netanyahu seeks to reinforce bipartisan support for Israel. His speech to Congress is expected to focus on preventing the Gaza conflict from escalating into a broader regional war. While Netanyahu's congressional address is anticipated to be well-received, protests are expected outside, highlighting opposition to Israel's Gaza campaign.  Reuters 

World Court says Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories is illegal.  The United Nations' highest court said on Friday that Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories in the West Bank and East Jerusalem and settlements there are illegal, and Israelis should withdraw as soon as possible.  The court’s opinion is non-binding but influential and is likely to weaken international support for Israel. The court said Israel should pay restitution for harm and organize "the evacuation of all settlers from existing settlements”. Israel’s foreign ministry denounced the opinion as one-sided and "fundamentally wrong."  "The Jewish nation cannot be an occupier in its own land," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said in a statement.  Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, whose nationalist religious party is close to the settler movement and who lives in a West Bank settlement, fired off an defiant tweet. Israel Gantz, a settler leader, said the ICJ opinion was "contrary to the Bible, morality and international law.”  Reuters Associated Press 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Zelensky thanks Biden for consistent support of Ukraine throughout presidency. President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday expressed respect for U.S. President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the presidential race, thanking him for his unwavering support of Ukraine. Zelensky highlighted Biden's leadership in supporting Ukraine during its most critical moments, preventing Russian occupation, and continuing to aid throughout the war. He acknowledged Biden's bold actions in challenging times and emphasized the need for ongoing U.S. support. Despite Biden's withdrawal, Zelensky affirmed Ukraine's commitment to cooperate with any U.S. administration. Biden's decision followed pressure from Democrats amid concerns about his fitness for office after a poor debate performance. Kyiv Independent 

Trump and Zelensky Spoke by Phone as Ukraine Worries About U.S. Backing. Former President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke by phone on Friday, addressing Kyiv's concerns about potential shifts in U.S. support under a new Trump administration. "Both sides will be able to come together and negotiate a deal that ends the violence and paves a path forward to prosperity," Trump said on social media.  Zelensky emphasized bipartisan American backing for Ukraine's independence, while Trump expressed his desire to end the war and bring peace. Ukrainian officials worry Trump's quick resolution plan might leave Russia in control of occupied territories. Ukrainian diplomats are strategizing to align their goals with Trump's interests in strong leadership and economic defense, aiming to influence his stance on supporting Ukraine. New York Times Washington Post Reuters The Guardian

Russia's Tuapse oil refinery damaged in Ukraine drone attack, Russian officials say. Russia's Black Sea Tuapse oil refinery, owned by Rosneft, was damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack, causing a fire that has since been contained, Russian authorities said Monday. The extent of the damage and operational status of the refinery are unclear. Russia's defense ministry stated its air defense systems destroyed 75 drones launched by Ukraine, including eight near Tuapse. The refinery has been targeted by several Ukrainian air attacks since the start of the war in 2022. Russian officials rarely disclose full damage detail. Reuters 

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 2, injure 16 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least two civilians and injured at least 16 over the past day, regional authorities reported early on Monday. Russian attacks against Donetsk Oblast killed one person and injured five. In Sumy Oblast, Russian attacks with drones, mortars, grenade launchers, and artillery killed one person. In Kherson Oblast, nine people were injured in Russian attacks over the past day. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, an 89-year-old woman was injured during Russian artillery and drone attacks. Kyiv Independent 

Russian missile hits playground, kills three in Ukraine's Mykolaiv. A Russian missile struck a children's playground in the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv, killing a child and two adults, and injuring five others on Friday. The city frequently faces Russian attacks regional governor Vitaliy Kim praised local residents for their quick response to assist victims before medics arrived. Reuters 

Zelensky calls for long-range weapons after drone attack on Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday called for long-range weapons to defend against Russian drone and missile attacks after a massive overnight assault on Kyiv. Ukraine's air defense systems intercepted all air weapons aimed at the capital. Zelenskiy emphasized the need to destroy Russian bombers at their bases to prevent further attacks. He urged Western allies to permit long-range strikes on Russia, citing recent drone attacks that targeted ten regions in Ukraine, with most drones successfully shot down. NATO countries have varied in their support for Ukraine's use of donated weapons against Russian targets. Reuters 

Debris shows Russia targeted Kyiv with new unidentified drone. Russian forces targeted Kyiv with a new, unidentified drone on Friday and Saturday. Ukraine's Air Force reported that 12 Shahed drones and one unspecified UAV were shot down. Images of the downed UAV show it differs from the typical Shahed-136 drones. The low altitude of the drone shot down in Kyiv also indicates that it was a kamikaze drone, Defense Express said. The unidentified drone has a wingspan of over 4 meters, a push rotor, and a square fuselage, resembling the older ZALA 421-20 reconnaissance drone. The fragments are still under investigation. Kyiv Independent 

Russian missile and drone attack kills 2 in Ukraine, hits energy infrastructure. Russian drones and missiles attacked Ukraine on Saturday, killing two civilians and hitting energy and railway infrastructure. The Kharkiv region's Barvinkove town was targeted by Iskander missiles, causing fatalities and injuries, and damaging over 50 buildings. Ukraine's air force intercepted 13 of 17 drones, but the attack impacted electricity distribution in Poltava, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions, leading to emergency power cuts. Ukrainian Railways reported damage to railway infrastructure, briefly delaying passenger trains. This attack is part of Russia's increased assaults on Ukraine's energy infrastructure since March. Reuters Bloomberg 

Civilians killed and wounded as Russia and Ukraine trade attacks. Russia claims gains in the east. On Sunday, Russia and Ukraine exchanged attacks, resulting in civilian casualties. Ukrainian strikes killed two in Russia-occupied Donetsk, while Russian strikes injured five in Ukraine. Russia claimed control of two villages in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 35 of 39 Russian drones, along with ballistic and guided missiles. Russian air defenses destroyed drones over Belgorod and the Black Sea. The attacks also targeted infrastructure, with missile strikes in Sumy destroying heating facilities and calls for resource conservation. The conflict, now in its third year, sees ongoing incremental gains and infrastructure targeting. Associated Press 

Kuleba to visit China on July 23-25. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba will visit China from July 23-25 to discuss Russia's war on Ukraine, China's role in achieving peace, and Ukrainian-Chinese relations. Kuleba and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will meet for the first time since the February Munich Security Conference. China, claiming neutrality, has deepened ties with Russia and provided dual-use goods. Ukraine seeks China's influence to end the war, despite past unsuccessful efforts and tensions over peace summit participation. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine Reaches Preliminary Debt-Restructuring Deal. Ukraine reached a preliminary deal with bondholders to restructure over $20 billion in debt, securing crucial funds for the war with Russia. Creditors agreed to a 37% haircut, swapping old bonds for new ones with lower interest rates and extended maturities, saving Ukraine $11.4 billion through 2027. Interest payments will resume in February 2025. Bond prices rose, but Ukraine needs two-thirds of bondholders to agree to avoid default and secure future financing. Wall Street Journal Bloomberg Reuters 

Years of miscalculations by U.S., NATO led to dire shell shortage in Ukraine. A Reuters investigation revealed that years of miscalculations by the U.S. and NATO have led to a critical shortage of 155mm artillery shells in Ukraine. Since Russia's 2014 seizure of Crimea, warnings about the West's munitions industry were ignored, resulting in inadequate supplies for Ukraine. This shortage, exacerbated by U.S. congressional delays in approving aid, has turned the war in Russia's favor. Despite new efforts to boost production, including modernizing plants and increasing output, the shell shortage has left Ukrainian forces outgunned, hurting their ability to defend against Russian advances. Last October, a Ukrainian offensive ended abruptly, and troops went from shelling to shoveling. Soldiers remember the order: Stop attacking and start digging trenches. Reuters

Ammunition deliveries to Ukraine will accelerate, Czech minister says.  A Czech-led initiative to buy ammunition from around the world for Ukraine will deliver 100,000 rounds to the country in July and August, Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said on Monday. "During July and August we will send about a total of 100 (thousand) pieces more. From September these deliveries will accelerate," Lipavsky told reporters in Brussels. Reuters 

Russia pushing toward Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast despite heavy losses, Syrskyi says. Russian forces continue to advance towards Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast despite suffering heavy losses, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said Monday. They are conducting intense attacks on multiple fronts, including areas like Krasnohorivka, Prohres, Zalizne, and Chasiv Yar. In Kherson Oblast, Russian troops aim to capture islands on the east bank of the Dnipro River. Syrskyi emphasized the need for Ukraine to hit Russian forces from a distance and conduct complex close-range attacks, using all available weapons and combat drones, requiring highly skilled and well-trained military personnel. Kyiv Independent 

Russia gathering forces in Kharkiv Oblast for fresh attacks, military says. Russia is amassing additional assault units near Hlyboke in Kharkiv Oblast for new offensives, Nazar Voloshyn of the Khortytsia group said Monday. This buildup includes forces from the 155th Marine Brigade and the 18th Motorized Rifle Division. Despite a failed offensive in May, Russia is regrouping in areas like Vovchansk and using drones for remote mining. Additional personnel have also been deployed near the border in Belgorod Oblast to reinforce depleted ranks. Kyiv Independent

US Plans Sanctions Over China’s Russia Aid, Top Biden Aide Says. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Friday that the US is preparing new sanctions on Chinese entities supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine, potentially targeting banks. Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum, Sullivan emphasized that China's actions are unacceptable and hinted at imminent measures. He referenced President Joe Biden’s executive order empowering the Treasury to sanction banks aiding Russia’s defense. While China has not provided direct lethal support, NATO recently labeled China a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war. The Biden administration's warnings signal increasing concern over China's potential provision of lethal aid to Russia. Bloomberg 

Divisive Far-Right Politician in Ukraine Is Fatally Shot. Iryna Farion, a far-right Ukrainian politician and former lawmaker, was fatally shot in Lviv. Known for her controversial campaigns to promote the Ukrainian language and discredit Russian-speaking Ukrainians, she was a highly divisive figure. Farion, 60, was shot in the head by a young man who fled the scene, and authorities believe the killing was targeted, possibly politically motivated, with suspicions of Russian involvement. Her death has sparked calls for a swift and transparent investigation, highlighting concerns about potential societal divisions amid the ongoing war. President Volodymyr Zelensky and Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko emphasized the importance of holding those responsible accountable. Farion, who began her political career as a Communist, later joined the hard-line nationalist Svoboda party. She controversially criticized Russian-speaking members of Ukraine’s Azov regiment who defended the port city of Mariupol in the first days of the full-scale invasion. New York Times Reuters Associated Press 

In this city, people say Russia must defeat Ukraine and the West at any cost. In Kirov, Russia, residents express strong support for President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, viewing it as a fight for survival against the U.S. and NATO. Despite initial reluctance, many now believe the bloodshed is necessary. Soldiers and their families, as well as volunteers, are deeply involved, with some seeing the war as a defense of Orthodox Christian values. Public support is bolstered by Kremlin propaganda, which masks the full consequences of the conflict. However, some individuals, including former fighters, express disillusionment and frustration with the war and the Russian Defense Ministry. Washington Post

Occupied Donetsk suffers water supply problems due to power outage in Russia, Kyiv says. A power outage in Russia halted water supply from the Don River to Russian-occupied Donetsk, Ukraine reported. The outage affected several Russian regions and Crimea, leaving about a million people without power. The Don-Donbas canal's pumping stations failed, stopping water supply and worsening the situation in occupied territories. Donetsk residents already faced water supply issues due to hostilities. Repairs are expected to take months, with major disruptions attributed to an emergency at the Rostov Nuclear Power Plant. Kyiv Independent 

Slovak prime minister blasts Ukraine's Lukoil sanctions as oil flow stops.Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico on Saturday criticized Ukraine's sanctions on Russian energy group Lukoil, which led to halted oil deliveries to Slovakia and Hungary. Slovakia's Slovnaft refinery, owned by Hungarian group MOL, faces a 40% reduction in oil supply, potentially impacting Slovak markets and diesel supplies to Ukraine. Fico, opposing the sanctions, expressed that Slovakia would not be a "hostage" to Ukraine-Russia relations and called the sanctions "senseless." Fico, known for his critical stance on sanctions against Russia, has previously halted direct military aid to Ukraine. Reuters Bloomberg  

Azerbaijan May Export Gas Via Ukraine After Russia Deal Ends. Azerbaijan may export natural gas to Europe via Ukraine after its current contract with Russia ends in 2024. President Ilham Aliyev said Azerbaijan was approached by Ukraine and the European Union for help. Talks are ongoing with Ukraine, the EU, and Russia. Azerbaijan aims to increase gas production from Caspian Sea fields and plans to double its gas exports to Europe to 20 billion cubic meters by 2027. This potential deal would help the EU reduce dependence on Russian gas. The Southern Gas Corridor will be used for these exports. Bloomberg

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Sunday, July 21, 2024. Russian State Duma Chairperson Vyacheslav Volodin recently visited Nicaragua and Cuba, likely as part of ongoing Kremlin efforts to project its influence in the Western hemisphere and rally states against the US and the West. The Georgian State Security Service reportedly recently summoned several Georgian citizens who had served as volunteers alongside Ukrainian forces for questioning on charges of "conspiracy to overthrow the government" and "terrorism." Geolocated imagery confirms that a Ukrainian drone strike damaged infrastructure at the Millerovo Air Base in Rostov Oblast overnight on Friday to Saturday.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka. Institute for the Study of War 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Saturday, July 20, 2024. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and former US President Donald Trump discussed ending the war in Ukraine on July 19. Ukrainian drones attacked a Russian airfield in Rostov Oblast overnight on Saturday. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov met with pro-war bloggers to improve the Ministry of Defense's image and address concerns. Russian authorities are increasing pressure on migrants facing deportation to join the military. Spanish authorities arrested three individuals linked to a pro-Russian hacking group targeting Ukraine and NATO states. Low-quality machine parts grounded five Russian MoD Il-76MD-90A transport aircraft.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces advanced near Vovchansk, Svatove, and Donetsk City. Institute for the Study of War 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, July 19, 2024. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the need for an international consensus to pursue peace negotiations with Russia. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is augmenting Russian information operations while presenting himself as a potential mediator, calling for normalized EU-Russia relations and questioning Western support for Ukraine. UK Defense Secretary John Healey stated that Ukraine can use UK-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia, highlighting ongoing intense discussions on this policy. The Kremlin is concerned about the long-term social and political implications of Russian veterans returning from Ukraine, fearing increased crime and societal discontent. The Russian government is considering stricter measures to directly censor critical voices on social media by requiring personal identification data from popular account owners. Russian authorities are proposing stricter migration legislation in response to ultranationalist complaints about perceived lenient policies and the need to address labor shortages and military force generation.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, and Avdiivka. Institute for the Study of War

AMERICAS

Biden announces end of re-election campaign amid mounting criticism, endorses Harris. U.S. President Joe Biden on Sunday announced that he has dropped his reelection bid after losing support from fellow Democrats regarding his mental acuity, age, and ability to defeat GOP nominee Donald Trump. On social media, he revealed that he will continue serving as president until January 2025, and that serving as commander-in-chief was the “greatest honor” of his life. In a subsequent post, he endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, calling her an “extraordinary partner”. A source familiar with the situation said that Biden, who was at his home in Delaware recuperating from COVID-19, abruptly changed his mind on Sunday afternoon, shocking his staff. Just hours before, his campaign had dismissed all reports that he would pull out of the election. A senior Democratic adviser, however, informed CNN that Biden was recently becoming more “receptive” to conversations about him stepping down. The president faced intensifying pressure to withdraw following a poor performance in a televised debate against Trump, where his failure to complete sentences drew attention away from Trump's false statements. Subsequent blunders, including confusing names at a NATO summit and calling Harris "Vice President Trump," along with a recent COVID-19 diagnosis, further raised concerns about his fitness for another term, with many calling for him to step aside. His decision marks the first time a sitting president has withdrawn from seeking reelection since Lyndon Johnson in 1968, leaving his potential successor with less than four months to campaign. Reuters Washington Post CNN New York Times Politico 

Mexico’s President plans to send Donald Trump a letter about migration, economic ties. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador praised former U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday as a "friend" and "a man of intelligence and vision," despite Trump's history of harsh rhetoric towards Mexico. López Obrador plans to write to Trump, warning against promises to close the border or blaming migrants for drug trafficking. He argued that closing the border would harm both countries' economies, particularly U.S. automakers who rely on parts from Mexico. López Obrador also countered U.S. concerns over manufacturing jobs moving to Mexico, claiming that relocating production back to the U.S. would significantly increase car prices. Despite previous tensions, the two leaders maintained a cooperative relationship during Trump's presidency, with López Obrador using Mexico’s National Guard to curb migration to the U.S., a policy continued under the current U.S. administration. Reuters Associated Press

U.S. targets Russian hackers with sanctions. The U.S. on Friday imposed sanctions on Yuliya Vladimirovna Pankratova and Denis Olegovich Degtyarenko, two leaders of the Russian hacktivist group Cyber Army of Russia Reborn (CARR), for their roles in cyber-attacks targeting U.S. critical infrastructure. The Treasury Department said that CARR has also attacked Ukraine and its supporters. Since last year, CARR has taken responsibility for multiple cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure in both the U.S. and Europe. Brian Nelson, Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, stressed that these attacks pose an “unacceptable threat” with “potentially dangerous consequences.” Reuters

Secret Service reportedly denied requests for additional security at Trump events.  The Washington Post is out with a report that senior officials in the U.S. Secret Service repeatedly dismissed requests for extra security resources for Donald Trump's protection team in the two years leading up to his attempted assassination at a rally in Pennsylvania. Trump's team had often requested more personnel, magnetometers, and specialized teams for various public events, but these requests were frequently denied due to resource limitations, staffing shortages, and a growing list of people who need protection. These denials led to tensions between Trump’s aides and Secret Service leadership, who later acknowledged some requests may have been rejected. Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle denied rejecting any security requests specific to the rally in Pennsylvania, but later admissions indicated some rejections had occurred. A Secret Service spokesman defended the organization, arguing it has a “vast, challenging, and intricate mission” managing security for over two dozen protectees amid resource constraints. The Secret Service has faced scrutiny for its security lapses and struggles with staffing since 2010. The situation with Trump is particularly challenging as he frequently attends large public events, unlike other former presidents who live more private lives. The recent assassination attempt and subsequent security debates have led to calls for Cheatle’s resignation from senior Trump advisers and lawmakers. Washington Post 

Confusion remains over Trump security failure as Secret Service Chief heads to Congress. U.S. lawmakers summoned Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle and local police chiefs to Capitol Hill on Monday for explanations on how would-be assassin Thomas Matthew Crooks managed to access the rooftop from which he attempted to assassinate Donald Trump. Questions persist about why the building's roof wasn't secured and why Trump was allowed to speak despite Crooks being flagged as suspicious an hour earlier. Meetings between local and federal law enforcement were held to coordinate security, but there were misunderstandings about who would cover the roof. The Butler County Emergency Services Unit believed the roof's slant and the heat made it unsuitable for their snipers. Despite spotting Crooks acting suspiciously with a backpack and a rangefinder, local officers lost sight of him, and the Secret Service allowed Trump to proceed with his speech. When witnesses reported a person on the roof of the building, local officers investigated but were unable to stop Crooks before he began shooting. Wall Street Journal 

Trump says no one warned him of 'a problem' before assassination attempt, calls situation a ‘mistake.’ Former U.S. President Donald Trump told Fox News on Saturday that no one informed him of a “problem” or of any security issues before his rally in Pennsylvania, where he was shot in the ear. Trump expressed his frustration, questioning how the shooter accessed the roof and why there was no prior warning. He said he would have waited “for 15 minutes, 20 minutes, 5 minutes, something,” if he had received a warning. Reuters

US to revisit, examine fighter project. Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall said on Saturday that the U.S. Air Force is re-evaluating its Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, which aims to develop a future family of fighters and drones, before deciding whether to proceed. The NGAD program, intended to replace the F-22, has faced scrutiny due to its high cost of over $300 million per unit, triple the cost of an F-35. The re-evaluation considers evolving threats, particularly from China, and the introduction of drones or Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) into the strategy. Kendall emphasized the need to ensure the right design concept before committing to the project, given that NGAD was conceived before recognizing severe threats, CCAs, and current affordability issues. Despite these challenges, the concept of a family of systems, including a crewed platform, CCAs, weapon systems, and communications, remains intact. Boeing and Lockheed Martin are seen as the main competitors for the core fighter component of the project. Reuters 

EUROPE

Europe embracing conscription laws as war with Russia looms. Several European nations, particularly in Scandinavia and the Baltics – have reintroduced requirements to register for military service because of the Russian threat. Failure to enlist can result in fines or even jail time in some countries. Latvia reintroduced compulsory military service last January.  Other policies focus on scaling up defenses.  In April, Norway presented an ambitious long-term plan that will nearly double the country’s defense budget and add more than 20,000 conscripted soldiers, employees, and reservists to the armed forces.   CNN  

German foreign minister says U.S. missiles are welcome. Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, has expressed support for the stationing of U.S. long-range missiles in the country, despite criticism from her own government coalition. In an interview, she stressed the need for increased deterrence and additional weapons to protect Germany and its Baltic partners. This follows a joint statement from Berlin and Washington earlier this month announcing episodic deployments of long-range missile capabilities in Germany starting in 2026. The U.S. plans to deploy Tomahawk cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons, which have significant range and speed. The parliamentary leader of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party warned against the risks of military escalation and highlighted the short warning time and advanced technological capabilities of these missiles. Baerbock argued that Russian President Vladimir Putin's expanding arsenal threatens European freedom, and that additional deterrence is necessary. This stance contrasts with some Social Democrats, who have also debated sending Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. Politico EU 

Polish state company denies its parts were used in Iranian drones.  A Polish state-owned engineering company denied on Friday that its parts were used in Iranian combat drones.  Independent broadcaster Radio Zet reported Thursday, that WSK Poznan had sold pumps to Iranian motor-maker Motorsazan Company for use in tractors, but the parts ended up in drones that Iran shipped to Russia. Reuters 

Britain to restore funding to U.N.R.W.A for Palestinian aid.    Britain’s new Labour government  said on Friday that it would restore funding to the United Nations agency for Palestinians, a major vote of confidence.  British foreign secretary David Lammy told Parliament that the agency, UNRWA, had taken steps to make sure that it meets “the highest standards of neutrality.”He said that Britain would transfer 21 million pounds, or $27 million, to the agency.  NY Times 

Russian court jails American reporter Gershkovich for 16 years in spying case.  A Russian court found U.S. reporter Evan Gershkovich guilty of espionage on Friday and sentenced him to 16 years in a maximum security penal colony for what his employer, the Wall Street Journal, called "a disgraceful sham conviction."  Gershkovich, 32, was accused of trying to gather sensitive information about a tank factory, a charge he denied. He’s not alone.  A Wall Street Journal review of Russian court documents and media reports found that at least 20 U.S. and dual U.S.-Russian citizens are being detained in Russian jails and labor camps.  “They are holding these Americans as potential leverage for future negotiations,” said William Pomeranz, a former director of the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, in Washington, and a specialist in the Russian legal system.  Reuters   WSJ 

Russia accuses anti-war pianist Evgeny Kissin of being a 'foreign agent.'  Russia has designated Moscow-born pianist Evgeny Kissin a "foreign agent" because of his support for Ukraine and opposition to the war, TASS reported Friday. Kissin, 52, who has British and Israeli citizenship, has won some of Russia's top artistic awards is considered one of the world's finest concert pianists. Kissin has spoken out frequently against Russian President Vladimir Putin and the war in Ukraine.   Reuters  

Residents mount rare protest over power cuts in southern Russian city.   Residents angry over recent power cuts in southern Russia city of Krasnodar staged a public protest Saturday.  The local governor blamed a heatwave for causing the blackouts.  Torrid temperatures have caused mass power outages in several regions and led to the shutdown earlier this week of one of four power units at the Rostov nuclear power plant, the region's largest.  Reuters 

Russia says its jets prevented U.S.  bombers from violating border over Barents Sea.  Russia's Defense Ministry said Sunday that Russian warplanes turned back two U.S. strategic bombers from the state border over the Barents Sea. The military scrambled MiG-29 and MiG-31 fighter jets, the ministry said, to confront two U.S. В-52Н strategic bombers. "As the Russian fighter jets approached, the American strategic bombers adjusted their flight course... and subsequently turned away from the state border of the Russian Federation," the ministry said. The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. Reuters  

Georgia uses ‘Russia-style’ laws to silence critics.  Many journalists and activists say the government of Georgia is using the new “foreign influence” law to stigmatize them and restrict debate before an election scheduled for October. It could also threaten Georgia’s bid to join the European Union. The law requires media, civil society groups and nonprofit organizations to register as “pursuing the interests of a foreign power” if they receive more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad. It also subjects them to intense state scrutiny and imposes steep fines for noncompliance. The government argues the law is needed to curb harmful foreign actors trying to destabilize Georgia.  Reuters 

Belarus holding talks with Berlin over German national sentenced to death for “terrorism.” Belarus on Saturday said it is in "consultations" with Germany following the death sentence of Rico Krieger, a 30-year-old German man convicted under six articles of Belarus’s Criminal Code, including terrorism, mercenary activity, and “illegal actions in relation to firearms, ammunition and explosives.” Krieger was sentenced to death by firing squad in June after secret court proceedings and has been detained since November. The Belarusian Foreign Ministry has proposed solutions in response to a request from the German Foreign Ministry, and consular access has been provided to the convict. Germany’s Foreign Ministry has not commented on Minsk’s remarks. Krieger, who is employed as a medic for the German Red Cross, was reportedly involved with the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment, a Belarusian unit fighting alongside Ukraine against Russia. Belarus, an ally of Moscow, has a history of executions, with over 400 reported since 1991. Recent laws have expanded the use of the death penalty for high treason and attempted terrorism. The case has drawn international attention, especially given Belarus's record of harsh crackdowns on dissidents and political opponents. DW CNN 

ASIA & OCEANIA

China, Philippines come to agreement in effort to end clashes at hotly disputed atoll. China and the Philippines on Sunday reached an agreement aimed at ending confrontations over the intensely disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. The shoal, occupied by the Philippines but also claimed by China, has been the site of increasing hostilities, which have raised fears of larger conflicts potentially involving the United States. The deal, confirmed by two anonymous Philippine officials, was reached after multiple diplomatic meetings and exchanges in Manila and aims to create a mutually acceptable arrangement at the reef without conceding either nation's territorial claims. The text of the accord has not yet been released. There are hopes that this rare deal could inspire similar arrangements between China and other countries with South China Sea disputes, although its successful implementation remains uncertain. The conflict has seen Chinese forces using aggressive tactics to block supply missions to Filipino navy personnel at the outpost on Manila’s Sierra Madre, a grounded vessel. In a severe incident on June 17, the Chinese coast guard rammed and boarded Philippine navy boats, seizing supplies and injuring several Filipino personnel. This confrontation spurred accelerated talks, leading to the removal of key Chinese demands from the final deal, such as restrictions on transporting construction materials and prior inspection rights. The resolution of these sticking points allowed the agreement to proceed, potentially easing tensions in this strategically important and disputed region. Associated Press Politico Reuters South China Morning Post

U.S. will back Philippines' efforts to resupply beached ship on disputed shoal. U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Friday that Washington plans “to do what is necessary" to ensure that the Philippines can resupply its grounded warship, the Sierra Madre, on the fiercely contested Second Thomas Shoal. Speaking at an event last week, Sullivan said that the U.S. prefers the Philippines to handle these resupplies and has informed China that its defense treaty with Manila covers the beached vessel. Sullivan stressed the need to de-escalate the situation and ensure the Philippines' ability to conduct resupply missions. Reuters

Blinken to meet with Chinese counterpart in Laos soon. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday said that he plans to meet with his Chinese counterpart this week in Laos. Blinken, speaking at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado, also said he talks to him regularly. He advocated for increased communication between the U.S. and Beijing. Reuters

China seeking better weapons procurement system amid reforms. The Chinese Communist Party is demanding significant reforms to the military's weapon procurement system, following the removal of two former defense ministers on charges of corruption. This decision, published on Sunday, is part of broader economic and national security reforms aimed at boosting growth and strengthening national defense, as announced by the Central Committee. Key measures include reinforcing President Xi Jinping's command of the military, enhancing combat readiness policies, improving joint operations, and accelerating the development of strategic deterrence, which often refers to nuclear and emerging technologies. The reforms aim to address corruption issues in weapon procurement, highlighted by recent high-profile corruption cases involving senior military officials; since last summer, at least 18 top military figures have been removed amid a corruption investigation into military hardware purchases. The party also committed to improving the integration of national strategies and capabilities, known as civil-military fusion, and to enhancing the management of aerospace and arms trade. Bloomberg

Analysts say Chinese policy update shows no major change following third plenum. China released a 60-point policy document on Sunday following a meeting of the Communist Party's Central Committee, led by President Xi Jinping. The document outlines Beijing's goals to develop advanced industries and improve the business environment, but analysts noted no significant structural shifts in the economy. The third plenum took place amid economic challenges like potential deflation, a prolonged property crisis, rising debt, and weak consumer and business sentiment. The document reaffirmed China's commitment to developing "new productive forces" through scientific research and technological advancements. The policy targets strategic industries such as information technology, new energy, AI, aerospace, new materials, biomedicine, high-end equipment, and quantum technology. Despite these ambitions, however, the document lacked details on how to achieve the goals, particularly in balancing resource allocation between producers and consumers. Analysts remain skeptical about how these objectives will be achieved given China's current economic model and regulatory environment. Reuters Straits Times

Taiwan begins its annual war drills, seeking to mimic real combat. Taiwan began its annual, five-day Han Kuang war games on Monday, designed to simulate realistic combat scenarios to repel a potential Chinese attack. The drills aim to eliminate scripted elements, focusing instead on nighttime drills and operations with cut command lines. The exercises include reservists receiving orders as they would in wartime and civilian vans being used for supply transport. The military will practice defending a major port in Taipei and conduct live-fire exercises on outlying islands near China. The games run alongside the Wan'an civil defense drills, where major city streets are evacuated, and warning alarms are tested. Scenarios include establishing contingency command lines and scattering Chinese forces attempting to land on Taiwan’s western coastline. Reuters Focus Taiwan

What could a Trump presidency mean for Taiwan’s defense? Analysts say that a Trump re-election could spell significant changes for Taiwan, potentially increasing the island’s defense and trade costs and raising concerns over how Taipei could secure U.S. help against Chinese aggression. Trump has criticized the current U.S.-Taiwan defense arrangement, suggesting that Taipei should pay more for U.S. protection, sparking fears about reduced support. Taiwanese officials, including Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung, have emphasized the sovereign island's growing military spending and self-reliance in defense. Some Taiwanese lawmakers are worried about Trump's transactional approach, questioning how much more Taiwan would need to pay and whether Washington’s defense support would be consistent. One legislative caucus leader noted, “we have already paid a huge amount of money,” and challenged Trump’s accounting. Though some believe U.S. defense support would continue due to the island’s strategic importance in countering China, others think that Trump's return could lead to higher demands from Taiwan for defense spending and calls that it open its market to more American products. South China Morning Post

Loudspeakers and trash balloons: North and South Korea engage in psychological warfare. North Korea has again escalated tensions with Seoul by sending trash balloons towards the South, prompting the South Korean military to vow a response with "full-scale" loudspeaker broadcasts. These broadcasts, set to start at 1 p.m., will feature propaganda, world news, and K-pop music. The South Korean military condemned Pyongyang's actions as vulgar and shameful, warning that such provocations near the heavily armed border could have deadly consequences. North Korea has engaged in a recent campaign of floating thousands of rubbish and feces-laden balloons across the border since May. South Korean activists and defectors have historically sent propaganda balloons into the North, further aggravating Pyongyang. Reuters

Bangladesh court throws out most job quotas following fatal protests. The Supreme Court of Bangladesh on Sunday ruled to reduce government job quotas after nationwide student-led protests turned violent, resulting in at least 139 deaths. The court decreed that 93% of government jobs should be merit-based, overturning a lower court's reinstatement of a 2018 quota system that reserved 56% of jobs for specific groups. Violent protests erupted after the reinstatement, leading to clashes between armed police and students, a government crackdown, internet and mobile shutdowns, and curfews. Despite the ruling, some protest organizers vowed to continue their actions until detained student leaders are released and internet and text services are restored. Clashes have led to thousands of injuries, with security forces using tear gas and rubber bullets against protesters. The government extended the curfew indefinitely but eased it briefly for supply purchases. The court also requested that protesting students return to classes, and directed the government to issue orders on the revised quotas. The situation remains tense, with many opposition leaders and activists detained. BBC Reuters Al Jazeera Reuters

India seeking licenses to search Pacific Ocean for key minerals.  A senior government scientist revealed that India plans to apply for licenses to explore deep-sea minerals in the Pacific Ocean to secure critical minerals for energy transition technologies. The U.N.-backed International Seabed Authority (ISA) has issued 31 deep-sea exploration licenses, including two for New Delhi in the Indian Ocean. However, mining regulations are still being developed by the 36-member ISA council, which is currently negotiating the latest draft of a mining code in Jamaica. India's Ministry of Earth Sciences, in collaboration with the mining industry, aims to apply next year for exploration rights in the Pacific, focusing on the Clarion-Clipperton Zone. This area, between Hawaii and Mexico, contains polymetallic nodules rich in minerals essential for electric vehicles and solar panels, such as manganese, nickel, copper, and cobalt. Reuters

Nipah virus kills boy in India's Kerala state, health authorities on alert. The death of a 14-year-old boy from the Nipah virus and the identification of 60 high-risk contacts has put authorities in India on alert. Health officials in Kerala, an Indian state that is highly susceptible to Nipah outbreaks, are taking preventive measures against the virus, which is transmitted from fruit bats and other animals like pigs, and can cause severe and often fatal brain-swelling fever in humans. There is no vaccine or cure for Nipah, which is classified by the WHO as a priority pathogen due to its epidemic potential. The state health minister has announced the formation of 25 committees to identify and isolate affected individuals. Isolation wards have been established, and 214 people are on the primary contact list, with 60 considered high-risk. The boy's family and other potential contacts are being monitored, and those at risk are advised to isolate at home. The Kerala government is actively tracing contacts to contain the virus spread. Nipah, first identified in Malaysia 25 years ago, has also caused outbreaks in India, Bangladesh, and Singapore. Reuters BBC CNN

AFRICA

Sudanese civilians facing terrible violence as conflict rages. Aid organization Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) on Monday reported that civilians in Sudan have endured severe violence during over a year of conflict between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), experiencing repeated attacks and abuse from both sides. The violence has been worsened by the collapse of the health system and inadequate international humanitarian response. MSF has treated thousands of war victims impacted by bombings, shelling, and attacks on homes and infrastructure. Access to lifesaving care has been significantly hindered due to shortages, obstruction, looting of medical supplies, insecurity, and attacks on healthcare facilities and staff. MSF accused the warring factions of disregarding human life and international law. Reuters MSF ABC

Turkey to deploy navy to Somalia to support search for oil and gas. Turkey plans to deploy its navy to Somali waters for support after agreeing to send an exploration vessel to search for oil and gas off the Somali coast. President Tayyip Erdogan on Friday submitted a motion to the Turkish parliament for authorization to deploy Turkish military forces, including to Somali territorial waters. This follows an announcement by the Turkish energy ministry about the deployment of an exploration vessel, as well as a hydrocarbon cooperation deal between Turkey and Somalia. The two countries signed a defense and economic cooperation agreement earlier this year. Ankara has been a close ally of Somalia, building infrastructure, providing scholarships, opening its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu in 2017, and training Somali military and police. Reuters

Tunisia arrests opposition leader, forbids him from running in presidential elections. A Tunisian court has sentenced opposition leader Lotfi Mraihi, a potential presidential candidate, to eight months in prison for vote buying, and banned him from running in presidential elections for life. Mraihi, leader of the Republican Union Party and a prominent critic of President Kais Saied, will appeal the sentence. Opposition parties accuse Saied's government of pressuring the judiciary to eliminate rivals ahead of the 2024 elections, where Saied will seek a second term. The opposition demands the release of imprisoned politicians and freedom for the media to ensure fair elections. Saied, ruling by decree since dissolving parliament in 2021, defends his actions as necessary to combat corruption. Reuters

Congo governor suspends mining activities to ‘restore order’ in gold-rich province. The governor of eastern Congo’s South Kivu province, Jean-Jacques Purusi Sadiki, on Friday banned all mining activities to "restore order" in the region, which is beset by violence from armed groups. The suspension aims to address the disorder caused by mining operators and ensure the traceability of mineral production while protecting human lives. Local authorities have given mining companies, businesses, and cooperatives 72 hours to vacate the mining sites. The immediate compliance and economic impact of this decision remain uncertain, as many mining areas are controlled by armed groups and thousands of residents rely on mining for their livelihood. The region, rich in gold and coltan, has seen frequent attacks on mining sites by over 120 armed groups. Chinese companies are heavily involved in mining activities in South Kivu. Associated Press Reuters

CYBER & TECH

CISA director faults CrowdStrike for not ensuring defect-free software update.  Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), issued an online post citing the “huge deal with serious impacts on critical infrastructure” triggered by CrowdStrike’s implementation of a flawed software update.  Easterly remarked that “any company that builds any kind of software should design, test and deliver it with a priority on dramatically driving down the number of flaws.”  Easterly confirmed in her Saturday LinkedIn post that the worldwide disruption of government and commercial IT operations “was not a Microsoft issue.”  She went on to say IT disruptions are to be expected, whether “it’s a technology outage caused by faulty code or a cyber-attack caused by Chinese cyber actors.”  The appropriate strategy, Easterly said, is that “we should plan for it, prepare for it, and build our systems and our networks to withstand it as much as possible, as well as train and resource our people to manage through it.”  Bloomberg   LinkedIn

Hackers exploit CrowdStrike aftermath with phishing emails bearing remote access malware.  The massive outage triggered by a faulty CrowdStrike software update is being exploited by threat actors through the deployment of data wipers and remote access tools.  Both government and private sector researchers have reported an increase in phishing emails, prompting an advisory from CrowdStrike that clients “remain vigilant and ensure that you’re engaging with official CrowdStrike representatives.”  Britain’s National Cyber Security Center (NCSC) advised that it also has monitored an uptick in phishing messages.  The malware analysis firm AnyRun reported a surge in efforts to impersonate CrowdStrike linkages by deploying HijackLoader, disguising the malware with a file promising to deliver a CrowdStrike software fix.  AnyRun also reported threat actor distribution of a data wiper under the cover of a purported CrowdStrike update.   AnyRun said the malware is designed to destroy a target system “by overwriting files with zero bytes.”  BleepingComputer

Cyber experts say skipped quality checks may have caused CrowdStrike outage.  Cybersecurity experts pointed to skipped quality checks as a likely explanation for CrowdStrike’s deployment of a flawed software update that brought down IT systems worldwide.  The goal of the new version of Falcon sensor software was to strengthen CrowdStrike clients’ systems against hacker threats.  Instead, Steve Cobb, chief security officer for Security Scorecard, said, “the vetting or the sandboxing they do when they look at code, somehow this file was not included in that or slipped through."  Security researcher Patrick Wardle explained that the update flaw was "in a file that contains either configuration information or signatures."  Wardle noted that signatures for security products are updated frequently as they monitor for new malware, adding that the regularity of updates ""is probably the reason why (CrowdStrike) didn't test it as much.” John Hammond, a Huntress Labs security specialist, said that a safer approach for cybersecurity software updates would have been to deploy it "to a limited pool first."  Reuters

Chinese IT self-reliance push may have paid off in avoiding CrowdStrike outages.  Chinese IT infrastructure for airlines, banks, and government services were largely unaffected by Friday’s massive computer outage.  Beijing and Shanghai airports notably operated without disruptions, according to website posts.  Chinese social media comment noted that foreign firms operating in China were heavily impacted by the outage.  Posts to the Xiaohongshu platform complained about check-in difficulties affecting Chinese outlets of Sheraton, Marriott and Hyatt hotels.  Observers noted that China’s deliberate efforts to reduce dependence on foreign IT systems and software may have spared large swaths of Chinese infrastructure.  Chinese government policies to substitute domestic hardware demonstrated the country’s progress, a Beijing representative said, in achieving “safe and controllable” IT systems.  A post on the Weibo messaging platform taunted Microsoft users by noting “our company just switched to new computers with the HarmonyOS system, so we can’t join in your (days off) celebration.”  South China Morning Post

China’s differing goals for AI complicate efforts at international governance.  Differing views of AI risks and governance between China and the West could hamper efforts to reach global agreement on development and regulation of the technology.  IT experts say that Chinese use of AI in domestic applications and the country’s risk evaluations complicate efforts to align international norms and standards.  While Western innovation is driven mainly by the private sector for commercial gains, China’s AI development is heavily influenced and supported by the government.   Chinese tech firms also seek commercial success, but government initiatives shape priorities as well, with focused efforts to employ AI advances for mass surveillance and to reduce the country’s reliance on Western advanced technology.  Zhang Linghan, a Chinese specialist in data law, told a Beijing symposium in June that global attitudes toward AI governance reflect “different perspectives, histories and frameworks of laws.”  Zhang, a member of the UN high-level advisory body on AI, said these differences cannot be ignored as they stem from “the difference in culture and the difference of situation.”  Nan Jia, who is on the faculty of the USC Marshall School of Business, noted that “a lot of the concerns that are high on the regulator’s mind in Western countries…are not relevant as there are no such underlying forces trying to achieve them in the China context.”  South China Morning Post

Hackers disguise emails as drone contracts to penetrate Ukrainian defense firms.  Hackers are zeroing in on Ukrainian defense firms by peppering them with phishing emails masquerading as drone procurement contracts.  Ukraine’s CERT-UA computer response team is tracking Glueegg malware used with the Dropclue loader that employs emails with attached zip archives and PDF documents containing infected links.  With these tools, hackers are installing Atera, a legitimate remote-control tool.  So far, CERT-UA has not attributed the phishing campaign to a specific source.  A CERT-UA statement said that in the “wide geography” of the hacker campaign, the threat actors have not stopped “trying to obtain unauthorized access to the computers of employees of Ukrainian defense enterprises.”   The Ukrainian agency reported that devices have been infected with a variety of malware types as the hackers constantly update their toolset.  An earlier CERT-UA advisory warned that Ukrainian military personnel and defense services were being targeted by hackers using DarkCrystal malware, which has the potential to gain remote access to targeted devices.  The Record

European web hosts disrupt Russian ‘Doppelganger’ disinformation operations. German and Lithuanian web hosts have suspended accounts associated with the Russian Doppelganger disinformation campaign.  The two European web hosts discovered Doppelganger operatives were using legitimate company web infrastructures to disseminate propaganda.  The Lithuanian host, Hostinger, reported that its servers in Singapore were used to operate several disinformation outlets masquerading as authentic media outlets, including Doppelganger-linked versions of the Israeli website, The Liberal.  A Hostinger spokesperson said "we have already drawn up an action plan to limit such abuse in the future."  Correctiv, a German nonprofit journalism group, reported that Hostinger and Germany’s Hetzner web host took actions that disrupted and in some cases removed Doppelganger posts on Facebook and X.   Correctiv said that on July 14 and 16, the Doppelganger campaign only distributed four links on each date, the fewest ever in the period under review.  The Record

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Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Chase Moabery & contributed to this report.

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