Report for Monday, July 1, 2024

THE TOP STORIES IN TODAY'S REPORT

Monday, July 1, 2024

Fears of discord: why NATO and Europe were so alarmed by Biden’s debate performance.

Zelensky lays out how Ukraine can win, if the West loses its fear of Putin.

Russia’s latest cyber-attacks, provocations have delivered severe blow to U.K.

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

EXPERT ANALYSIS: Dangers Ahead in the South China SeaThe Cipher Brief 

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Israelis fear Biden’s leadership problems may be exploited by Iran.  Israeli commentators are expressing alarm that President Joe Biden’s shaky debate performance could invite Iran to make trouble for the U.S. and Israel.  According to the New York Times, they’re warning that Iran and its proxies could try to exploit Mr. Biden’s difficulties with his own political base.  What Biden’s troubles could mean for his administration’s ability to find  diplomatic solutions for the Gaza war and Israel-Hezbollah conflict is unknown and worrisome.   On Friday, a senior U.S. official said the U.S. was trying to rekindle those talks by proposing new language to bridge gaps in discussions for a ceasefire and hostage deal between Israel and Hamas. On Saturday, Osama Hamdan, a senior Hamas official, said no progress had been made. Also on Saturday,  Turkish media reported that Turkey’s intelligence chief, Ibrahim Kalin,  met with Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh to discuss ceasefire talks, a hostage exchange and humanitarian aid deliveries.  New York Times  Reuters  CNN Hurriyet Daily News

A day-after vision for Gaza – security zones.  Some Israeli civilian and military officials are discussing creating geographical “islands” or “bubbles” where Palestinians unconnected to Hamas can take shelter while the Israeli military kills or captures remaining insurgents. Other members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party want to divide Gaza with two corridors running across its width and a fortified perimeter so the military can mount raids whenever insurgent bands start to form.  These ideas are being kicked around by active and retired army and intelligence officers, think tanks, academics and politicians interviewed by the Wall Street Journal.  The problem is, Palestinian civilians would continue to suffer confinement and hardship. Fighting could linger for years, leaving the Israeli military in charge of governance in the enclave while fending off Hamas guerilla attacks.  WSJ

Israeli forces move deeper into southern and northern Gaza.   Israeli forces moved deeper into two northern and southern areas of Gaza on Friday. Residents and Hamas media said tanks advanced further west into the Shakoush neighborhood of Rafah, forcing thousands of displaced people to flee tent camps and head north to Khan Younis. Palestinian health officials said at least 11 people were killed by tank fire. According to Al Jazeera, Hamas fighters killed four Israeli soldiers, and wounded five others, in the Shejaia  neighborhood of Gaza City. The Jerusalem Postreported that the Israeli operation in Shejaia has killed dozens of Hamas fighters since Friday and has discovered and eliminated a number of tunnels. Reuters   Al Jazeera  Jerusalem Post 

Rough seas force U.S. military to remove temporary pier from Gaza coast, again. The pier built by the U.S. military to deliver aid to Gaza was removed because of bad weather,  Pentagon officials said Friday. They said the pier might not be reinstalled because the United Nations and aid agencies haven’t been able to deliver the aid because humanitarian convoys have come under attack. Most of the aid is sitting in a storage yard that is almost full. The U.N. hasn’t been distributing supplies arriving at the pier since June 9 because of a U.N. security review after the Israeli military used an area near the pier to fly out rescued hostages, amid a raid that killed more than 270 Palestinians.   Reuters  AP   Reuters AP

EU issues sanctions for Hamas, Islamic Jihad financiers.   The European Union is sanctioning six people and three companies for financing Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the EU council said Friday.  The companies include Zawaya Group for Development & Investment Co Ltd, Larrycom for Investment Ltd and Al Zawaya Group for Development & Investment Sociedad limitada. They will be subject to an asset freeze, and the people will be banned from the EU.  Reuters 

UN warns of disease in Gaza due to sewage, garbage, dirty water.   The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) has warned that garbage rotting in the heat, sewage and dirty water are accelerating disease spread in Gaza with Hepatitis A cases reportedly on the rise. Doctors also fear an outbreak of cholera.  The U.N. estimates that nearly 70 percent of Gaza’s water and sanitation plants have been destroyed or damaged.  People who once managed municipal water and waste systems have been forced to leave, and some killed. This month, an Israeli strike in Gaza City killed five people repairing water wells. The U.N., aid groups and local officials are rushing to build latrines, fix water lines and restore desalination plants.  Associated Press   

Israel demolishes Palestinian homes in West Bank.   Israeli soldiers have destroyed 11 homes and other structures in a West Bank village populated by Palestinian shepherds, leaving 50 people homeless. Israeli activists and residents said contractors with bulldozers and Israel Defense Forces troops went to the village of Umm al-Kheir Wednesday and demolished six houses, tent residences, an electricity generator, solar cells and water tanks, amounting to about a third of the village.  Palestinian infrastructure in the area is frequently demolished because residents do not have building permits. UN experts have said such demolitions may be war crimes.  Last week, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said  the Israel government would promote new Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Wasel Abu Youssef, from the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization, responded that the settlements were "illegal colonies that violate all international resolutions" and Israel was pursuing a “war of genocide” against Palestinians.   The Guardian  Reuters 

U.S. sent Israel thousands of 2,000-pound bombs before freezing one shipment.  The Biden administration has sent Israel thousands of tons of munitions since the start of the Gaza war, Reuters reported, flatly contradicting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claim that the U.S. has withheld weapons from Israel.  Included in the shipments, according to Reuters:  at least 14,000 MK-84 2,000-pound bombs; 6,500 500-pound bombs; 3,000 Hellfire precision-guided air-to-ground missiles; 1,000 bunker-buster bombs; 2,600 air-dropped small-diameter bombs, and other munitions. Reuters quoted unnamed U.S. officials knowledgeable about the shipments as saying that there had been no reduction in U.S. military shipments of munitions to Israel, except for a single shipment of 3,500 “high-payload”  bombs that President Joe Biden “paused” in May, as the Israelis were moving into Rafah, over Biden’s strong objections.  The numbers of bombs and munitions have not been previously reported. They are part of a longer list of weapons sent to Israel since the war began. A senior Biden administration official told reporters last Wednesday that Washington has sent $6.5 billion worth of security assistance to Israel since October 7.   Reuters

U.S. and Europe warn Hezbollah to stop rocketing Israel.    U.S., European and Arab mediators are pressing Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militants to stop the cross-border attacks on northern Israel that threaten to touch off a wider Middle East war.  American and European diplomats and other officials perceive Hezbollah as a better fighting force than Hamas but overconfident, and they’re sending Hezbollah warnings to stop challenging Israel.  Their message: don’t expect the U.S. to hold off  the Israeli military if it moves forward with its battle plan for an offensive into Lebanon, and don’t overestimate its fighters’ ability to confront Israel’s crack troops.   Associated Press  

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

ANALYSIS–For Ukraine and Russia, a Deadly Summer Lies Ahead with Little Hope of Big Gains. Russia’s war in Ukraine is poised for a deadly summer as both Ukrainian and Russian forces struggle to gain ground along a largely static 700-mile front line. Ukraine, having repelled a recent Russian offensive, is counter attacking in the northeast, while Russian troops aim to secure a critical supply route in the southeast. Both sides are focusing on long-range strikes, with Russia targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukraine aiming to isolate Crimea. Despite high casualties, neither side is expected to achieve a decisive breakthrough. Ukrainian forces are leveraging new Western weapons to hold their positions, while Russian advances remain slow and costly. Wall Street Journal

Zelensky lays out how Ukraine can win, if the West loses its fear of Putin. In an interview with The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Trudy Rubin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he believes Ukraine can win the war if the West overcomes its fear of Russian President Vladimir Putin. He stressed that peace talks with Russia would only embolden further aggression. “The biggest [current] issue is with glide bombs,” Zelensky said, referring to Moscow’s use of thousands of monthly bombs that can be released far from their target, protecting the launching aircraft from anti-aircraft defenses. “So you need to search for long-range solutions against their aerodromes where their military aircraft land, which Russia uses to launch glide bombs and missiles.” If President Joe Biden would let Ukraine use long-range U.S. missiles such as the recently delivered ATACMS to hit those airports in Russia, then the attacks could be prevented, Zelensky said. Ukraine’s innovative, home-produced long-range drones are hitting those airports but don’t have the power of missiles. Zelensky emphasized the need for Ukraine's integration into the European Union and NATO for long-term security. Zelensky warned that without firm Western backing, Putin will continue his territorial ambitions, threatening broader European stability. Despite exhaustion, Zelensky remained committed to fighting for Ukraine’s sovereignty and democratic values. The Philadelphia Inquirer

Zelensky renews long-range arms call after attack. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky renewed his call for more long-range weapons and air defenses following a missile attack Saturday in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast city of Vilniansk, killing seven, including two children, and injuring 31. In total, at least 11 civilians were killed and a further 37 wounded in missile attacks across Ukraine on Saturday, Reuters reported. Zelensky emphasized the need to destroy Russian missile launchers and increase modern air defense systems to counter daily Russian strikes. Despite previous arms supplies from Western allies, Zelensky urged faster delivery of weaponry, attributing recent Ukrainian casualties and Russian territorial gains to delays in military aid.  BBC Associated Press Kyiv Independent 

Russia attacks Ukraine's two largest cities, Kyiv and Kharkiv. Russian forces attacked Kyiv and Kharkiv on Sunday, with missile fragments hitting a suburban Kyiv apartment building and a guided aerial bomb killing one person in Kharkiv in an attack targeting a postal depot. Emergency services reported fires and damage, with several injuries in both cities. Attacks on Kyiv have been less frequent, while Kharkiv faces regular assaults. President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted Russia's use of over 800 guided bombs in the past week and renewed calls for advanced weapons systems to counter Russian aircraft and hasten peace. Reuters Reuters Kyiv Independent

Governor: Russian attacks kill 4, wound 6 in Donetsk Oblast. Russian attacks on residential areas in Donetsk Oblast killed four civilians and wounded six, with most casualties in the front-line village of Niu-York, Governor Vadym Filashkin reported on Saturday. As Moscow intensifies its offensive on Toretsk, authorities urge civilians to evacuate. Additionally, one civilian was killed and two wounded in Kherson Oblast, and one killed and nine wounded in Kharkiv Oblast over the past day. Kyiv Independent

At least one killed, 12 injured in Russian missile attack on Ukraine's Dnipro. A Russian missile struck a nine-story residential building in Dnipro on Friday, killing at least one person and injuring 12, including a 7-month-old infant. Four upper floors collapsed, and more victims are feared trapped. The fire has been extinguished, and two people are missing. President Zelenskiy urged allies to provide more air defenses against ongoing Russian attacks. Dnipro, a key city with intense fighting nearby, has faced regular missile and drone strikes since the war began in February 2022. Despite Russian denials, thousands of civilians have been killed in these attacks. Reuters Kyiv Independent 

Official: Ukrainian Drone Kills 5 In Russian Border Town. A Ukrainian drone strike on Saturday hit a house in Gorodishche, a Russian border village, killing five people, including two children. Kursk region governor Aleksei Smirnov stated that a copter-style drone, equipped to drop explosives, was used. Both Russia and Ukraine employ drones, including larger self-detonating models. Ukraine has not commented on the incident. RFE/RL  

Ukraine now mass-producing strike drones with range of over 1,000 kilometers. Ukraine has started mass-producing strike drones with a range exceeding 1,000 kilometers, Herman Smetanin, head of the state-owned Ukrainian Defense Industry, also known as Ukroboronprom, said on Saturday. These drones target deep into Russian territory, including military infrastructure and oil refineries, to disrupt fuel supplies and Moscow's war funding. The production expansion was achieved with the help of private individuals. Kyiv Independent 

OSCE Parliamentary Assembly adopts resolution recognizing Russian genocide of Ukrainian people. On Sunday, the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly adopted a resolution recognizing Russia's actions in Ukraine as genocide and stated that decolonizing Russia is essential for lasting peace. The OSCE, with 57 members, including Ukraine and Russia, facilitates inter-parliamentary dialogue. The resolutions are not legally binding. Kyiv Independent 

Ombudsman: More than 14,000 Ukrainian civilians in Russian captivity. Ukraine's Chief Ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets, reported on June 29 that over 14,000 Ukrainian civilians are held in Russian captivity, with their return being particularly challenging due to the lack of exchange options and legal processes. Ukraine is also working to return 20,000 children and many missing persons. Kyiv Independent

Zelensky: 10 civilians have been returned from captivity in Russia and Belarus. President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Friday the return of 10 Ukrainian civilians from Russian captivity, including those held by Belarus, as part of a recent prisoner exchange. Among the freed were Nariman Dzhelyal, deputy head of the Crimean Tatar assembly, two Catholic priests from Berdiansk, and civilians accused of espionage and treason. Ukrainian officials noted that the exchange involved each side handing back 90 detainees. Reuters

Russia presses its offensive in Ukraine and issues new threats as the West tries to blunt the push. Russian troops are making steady advances in Ukraine, prompting the West to increase military support for Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued new threats of retaliation against the West. The offensive, aimed at stretching Ukrainian defenses, has seen incremental gains, particularly in the Donetsk region. Russia’s offensive near Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, which began in May and worried Kyiv’s Western allies, has lost momentum after the Ukrainian army bolstered its forces in the area by redeploying troops from other sectors. The breadth of the strikes has forced Ukraine to spread out its artillery. The West’s response includes allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons for limited strikes inside Russia. Putin has declared a long-term strategy to exhaust Ukrainian resources and force a peace deal favorable to Russia. Associated Press 

A grinding Russian assault appears telling about Putin's plan to defeat Ukraine. Russia's current offensive reflects Putin's strategy of attrition, aiming to weaken Ukraine's counteroffensive capabilities rather than achieving rapid territorial gains. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note that Russia is using limited forces for gradual advances to exhaust Ukraine's resources and personnel. Putin believes this slow, steady approach will force Ukraine out of contested territories. ISW experts warn that delays in Western aid could lead to Ukraine's collapse and a Russian victory. Business Insider

'There was no preparation': One marine's story of defending Kharkiv. Ukrainian soldier Oleksiy has been redeployed from the southern front near the Dnipro River to the northeastern Kharkiv region to counter a Russian offensive. Oleksiy describes the fighting as intense and the conditions as dire, with minimal progress and heavy losses on both sides. Despite limited supplies and mounting casualties, Ukraine maintains its bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro to distract Russian forces, limit artillery strikes on Kherson, and potentially liberate territory. Oleksiy notes that promised U.S. military aid is slowly arriving but not always reaching the front lines. The ongoing conflict sees Ukrainian forces enduring constant Russian fire and struggling to hold their positions. A new mobilization law may provide some relief, but skepticism remains. Meanwhile, President Zelensky seeks international support for a peace settlement on favorable terms for Ukraine, acknowledging the challenges posed by Russia's current military advantage.  BBC 

Motorcycles and Mayhem in Ukraine’s East. In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces have adopted new tactics, using motorcycles, dirt bikes, quadricycles, and dune buggies for rapid assaults on Ukrainian trenches. These vehicles allow Russian soldiers to traverse exposed, mined fields quickly, though they do not protect from gunfire and artillery. The swift, erratic movement of these vehicles complicates Ukrainian defense but also results in high Russian casualties. Ukrainian soldiers counter these attacks with machine guns and exploding quadcopter drones. This tactic, along with traditional artillery and armored assaults, aims to exhaust Ukrainian resources and gain strategic positions in the Donbas region. Despite the dangers, Russian commanders continue employing these risky maneuvers. New York Times 

A weekend in Kharkiv: Beach, ping-pong, poetry jams, Russian bombs. Despite relentless Russian bombing, Kharkiv's residents embrace early summer rituals as a form of resistance. Weekend activities included a wedding, opera rehearsals, high school graduations, and table tennis games, all underscored by the constant threat of attacks. Often targeted, the city’s Central Park remains a hub for locals. Amid the destruction, people continue to celebrate life and maintain routines. A poetry jam to raise military funds exemplifies their resilience. Kharkiv's residents find solace and strength in these rituals, showing defiance against the backdrop of war. Washington Post 

Ukraine spent years trying to build a Western-style democracy. Then Russia invaded the country. Yehor Soboliev, once an investigative journalist, activist, and lawmaker, has joined the fight against Russia as a soldier, temporarily setting aside his anti-corruption efforts. Ukraine's democracy faces challenges as martial law restricts freedoms, elections are postponed, and corruption persists. Corruption exists at a “frightening scale” in Ukraine, the pro-democracy organization Freedom House said in a February report, noting that it “metastasized within the army in 2023,” especially around defense contracts and men seeking exemptions from the draft. Olha Aivazovska, who chairs the pro-democracy OPORA nongovernmental organization, believes the pressure to eliminate corruption will be maintained by Ukraine’s desire for European Union membership. “Ukrainian politicians will not win any elections after the end of the war if they will not be successful on the EU integration track,” she said. Despite these struggles, public belief in democracy remains strong. Soboliev continues to support the fight for Ukraine's independence and democratic future. “Till the victory, we are on the same side,” said Soboliev, a lieutenant in a front-line drone unit. “But maybe — definitely — after the victory, we should separate ourselves from each other. And we should continue that fight in making our country more honest, more responsible, more serving to its citizens.”  AP

Takeaways from AP’s report on Ukraine’s battle to defend its democracy in wartime. Ukraine's efforts to build a Western-style democracy have faced challenges, especially after Russia's invasion. The war has forced Ukraine to limit some democratic practices, including postponing elections, curbing media freedom, and imposing martial law. Corruption remains an issue, with high-profile dismissals and arrests. Despite delaying the 2024 presidential election, most Ukrainians support the decision. The war has also led to media consolidation, drawing criticism for stifling competition. Martial law restricts movement and imposes curfews, barring many men from leaving. However, Ukrainians' belief in democracy remains strong. Associated Press  

ANALYSIS–How Russian Elites Made Peace with the War. When the war in Ukraine began, Russian elites were shocked, viewing it as a disastrous mistake. As the conflict continued, initial opposition waned, and elites began to endorse the war. Influential figures, including musicians and businesspeople, adapted to life under sanctions and supported the Kremlin. Believing Russia is now prevailing, elites view the war as a tolerable reality, fearing collapse if defeated. Discussions have shifted to potential war outcomes, with some advocating further offensives. Elites see Putin’s conflict with the West as ongoing, anticipating continued aggression beyond Ukraine, driven by Putin’s desire to challenge NATO and Western resolve. Foreign Affairs 

EU set to reimpose tariffs on Ukraine, a potential sign of tough talks ahead. Due to farmer protests, the European Union is expected to reimpose tariffs on Ukrainian sugar and egg imports, highlighting potential challenges in Ukraine’s EU accession talks. The tariffs, initially dropped after Russia's invasion, sparked discontent among farmers in Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia. Ukraine’s large agricultural sector could become a major recipient of EU subsidies, complicating negotiations. Pro-Russian forces have exploited these protests to undermine Western support for Ukraine. Semafor

Property used to finance Russia’s war transferred to Ukrainian state. Ukraine has seized a building materials factory owned by Serhii Medvedchuk and Bohdan Kozak, brothers of pro-Russian ex-lawmakers Viktor Medvedchuk and Taras Kozak, for aiding Russia's war efforts. The factory, valued at $5 million, was involved in a scheme diverting nearly $2 million in taxes, with funds directed to their brothers to finance Russia's invasion. The factory and other seized assets will support Ukraine's military. Viktor Medvedchuk and Taras Kozak, accused of treason, were key pro-Kremlin politicians in Ukraine, and their assets were confiscated to undermine their support for Russia. Kyiv Independent 

Belarus Strengthens Air Defenses Along Ukrainian Border As Kyiv Defends Troop Movements. Belarus has bolstered its air defenses along the Ukrainian border, citing threats to its critical infrastructure from Ukraine. Belarus, an ally of Russia, allowed its territory to be used as a launchpad for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine dismissed Belarus's concerns, stating troop movements are defensive due to Belarus's continued support for Russia. Belarus accused Ukraine of increasing drone activity and moving military forces near the border, while Ukraine emphasized it poses no threat and must defend itself against Belarusian-backed aggression. RFE/RL  

For Ukrainians, the Biden-Trump debate was a high-stakes affair. In Ukraine, the Biden-Trump debate on Thursday held significant stakes. President Joe Biden is seen as a predictable supporter of aid to Ukraine against Russia. Ex-President Donald Trump, however, treats the war like a dispute between children. But Trump said he views Vladimir Putin’s ultimatum for Ukrainian concessions as unacceptable. While Trump suggests he can negotiate peace, skepticism remains about his understanding of Putin's true intentions. “If he becomes president, this illusion will quickly pass when he realizes that Putin is not interested in agreements, he is only interested in one thing — the destruction of Ukraine’s statehood,” Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the Ukrainian parliament’s foreign relations committee, told Politico. Biden's firm stance on Putin contrasts with Trump's portrayal of the war as needless. Ukrainians fear the potential consequences of U.S. political shifts and stress the need for a president who takes decisive actions to support Ukraine’s victory. Politico 

Key Foreign-Policy Moments About Ukraine From the Trump-Biden Debate. In their first debate of this year’s campaign, Joe Biden and Donald Trump intensely debated the U.S. role in the Russia-Ukraine war on Thursday. Biden emphasized his administration’s strong support for Ukraine, including $175 billion in military aid, positioning the U.S. as a leader uniting global efforts against Russian aggression. He cited the backing of 50 nations, including Japan and South Korea. Trump accused Biden of encouraging Russia’s invasion due to the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal, claiming a "respected" president would have deterred Vladimir Putin. Trump promised to “settle” the war before his potential inauguration without explaining how. He criticized NATO allies for failing to meet defense spending targets and suggested Russia could act freely against non-compliant members. Trump warned Biden’s stance could lead to World War III, while Biden argued that Trump’s policies would embolden Putin, posing a greater risk to global stability and security. Foreign Policy 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Saturday, June 29, 2024. Two prominent Russian officials are pursuing divergent approaches to address religious extremism amid rising ethnic and religious tension in Russia. Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin has blamed Islamic terrorists for recent attacks and called for a legislative response, drawing backlash from Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov. Kadyrov urged Russian officials to avoid labeling all Muslims as terrorists, warning that such rhetoric threatens Russia's socio-political stability. Kadyrov's criticism of Bastrykin is significant, reflecting ongoing debates among Russian officials and military bloggers about handling religious extremism. Bastrykin, a prominent figure in Russia's ultranationalist movement, is increasingly at odds with Kadyrov, who represents Russia's Muslim minority. Putin may intervene in the Bastrykin-Kadyrov debate to address public concerns and prevent conflict between the officials. Russian ultranationalists doubt authorities' ability to prevent future terrorist attacks and address ethnic and religious tensions following the June 23 Dagestan attack.

Battlefield updates: Ukrainian forces have regained positions near Kreminna, while Russian forces have advanced near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Donetsk City. Institute for the Study of War 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Sunday, June 30, 2024. Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory, based on the belief that Russia can make indefinite creeping advances in Ukraine, will prolong the war and reinforce his goal to destroy Ukrainian statehood. The West must provide Ukraine with the necessary support to conduct counteroffensive operations, invalidating Putin’s strategy and securing a peace acceptable to Ukraine and its allies. In an interview with The Philadelphia Inquirer, President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed concern that Western fears of Russian instability prevent full support for a Ukrainian victory, allowing Putin to seize more territory. Putin’s recent demands for Ukraine to cede all occupied territories underscore his belief that a protracted war benefits Russia. Putin’s ultimate goal is the complete destruction of Ukrainian statehood and identity, using territorial conquest as a means to that end. The Russian military is dispersing elite airborne units across different sectors, suggesting a strategy to bolster overall combat effectiveness. Ukrainian forces struck the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant in Lipetsk Oblast, highlighting ongoing conflict beyond frontline battles. Dagestan Republic Head Sergei Melikov supported Chechen Head Ramzan Kadyrov in a debate over religious extremism, reflecting growing ethnic and religious tensions in Russia. Military and civilian flights over Europe and the Middle East continue to experience GPS interference, emphasizing the impact of long-term GPS jamming in conflicts.

Battlefield updates: Ukrainian forces regained lost positions near Kreminna, and Russian forces recently advanced near Lyptsi, Vovchansk, Kupyansk, and Avdiivka. Institute for the Study of War 

AMERICAS

Trump will encourage Japan, South Korea ties, allies tell foreign officials.  Donald Trump's allies have reassured officials in Japan and South Korea that he would support Biden-era efforts to strengthen three-way ties against China and North Korea if re-elected. These conversations, aimed at easing concerns over Trump's previous foreign policy stance, emphasize military, economic, and diplomatic cooperation. This outreach is seen as an effort to align Trump with ongoing U.S. strategies in Asia, ensuring continuity and stability amid regional tensions. The discussions signal Trump's potential commitment to traditional alliances, contrasting his earlier isolationist approach, and addressing concerns from key U.S. allies. Reuters

Sources say U.S. set to criminally charge Boeing with fraud, seek guilty plea.  The U.S. Justice Department plans to charge Boeing with fraud over two fatal crashes involving 737 MAX jets in 2018 and 2019, which killed a combined 346 people. According to two sources, Boeing will be asked to plead guilty or face a trial. The proposed plea agreement includes a financial penalty, the appointment of an independent monitor for three years, and the imposition of three years' probation. The Justice Department decided to pursue charges after finding Boeing violated a 2021 agreement that had previously shielded it from prosecution. If the company refuses the plea deal, the case will go to trial. The deal also mandates Boeing's board to meet with victims' relatives and could impact the company’s ability to secure government contracts, although companies with felony convictions can sometimes receive waivers. Victims' families expressed anger over the plea deal, deeming it insufficient and pushing for harsher penalties and additional charges. Reuters

U.S. set to provide deportation relief to additional 309,000 Haitians.  The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced on Friday that the Biden administration will extend deportation relief and work permits to approximately 309,000 Haitians in the U.S., expanding access to the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program through February 2026. This decision comes amid severe violence and security issues in Haiti, which limit access to basic necessities. Around 264,000 Haitians were already covered by TPS, which provides relief to people from countries facing extraordinary events, armed conflicts, or natural disasters. Former U.S. President Donald Trump had attempted to end TPS enrollments but was blocked by federal courts. Reuters

Pentagon's innovation office approves supercomputer cloud services. The Pentagon is advancing a project to provide soldiers with access to supercomputers in the field, moving from prototype to production. This initiative, involving software companies Rescale and Parallel Works, integrates Defense Department supercomputers with cloud services for increased capacity and remote access. The Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) plans to offer these services through the Pentagon's High Performance Computing Modernization Program (HPCMP). HPCMP, managed by the Army, spent $300 million in 2023, with budgets of $255 million for 2024 and a request for $240 million in 2025. The program allows researchers to augment on-premises work with cloud resources, providing access to diverse hardware and scalable resources. The high-performance computing (HPC) platform allows for complex calculations and modeling, essential for operations like weather forecasting and structural analysis in remote locations. The cloud-based HPC provides agility, scalability, and access to cutting-edge computing architectures, augmenting but not replacing existing supercomputers. Defense One

Pattern of brain damage from repeated blast exposure discovered in Navy SEALs who committed suicide. A U.S. Defense Department laboratory in Maryland has discovered a pattern of brain damage seen only in people exposed to repeated explosions, raising questions about the dangers of years of recurrent blasts on Navy SEALs. Lieutenant David Metcalf, a Navy SEAL, who died by suicide in 2019, left a note indicating that his brain had been damaged by years of exposure to blast waves, leading to severe cognitive and psychological issues. His brain was analyzed, revealing a unique damage pattern caused by repeated blast exposure. This issue, often overlooked, affects many soldiers who are primarily exposed to blasts from their own weapons during training. Despite the findings, Navy leadership remained unaware of the problem due to poor communication and privacy guidelines. A New York Times investigation found shockingly similar brain damage in other SEALs who died by suicide. And though the Navy has since started to limit blast exposure and enhance medical research, the critical connection between blast exposure and brain injuries remains under-addressed. The story highlights a significant disconnect within the Defense Department, which spends heavily on brain injury research but fails to apply findings to military practices. Families of affected SEALs have advocated for brain donations to research, revealing widespread and severe impacts of blast-induced brain injuries on SEALs, leading to symptoms often misdiagnosed as PTSD. New York Times

Haitian gangs gearing up for conflict as Kenyan police forces deploy, Prime Minister flies to U.S. Haitian gang leaders said they are readying for war amid preparations for the deployment of hundreds of Kenyan police officers who recently arrived in the turbulent Caribbean nation to combat violence. The latest move marks the fourth major foreign intervention in Haiti’s history. On Friday, Haiti’s Prime Minister Garry Conille departed Port-au-Prince for Washington and New York. He was expected to meet with U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer on Monday. Residents of the Port-au-Prince said they remained hopeful but tense that the force could put an end to the widespread killings, sexual violence, and abductions. France 24 Reuters 

Initial construction starts on new fleet of warships for Royal Canadian Navy. Officials announced on Friday that initial construction has begun on a new fleet of warships for the Royal Canadian Navy, with the vessels expected to be operational by 2035. This project, the Canadian Surface Combatant (CSC) Project, involves building 15 warships to replace the current Halifax-class frigates. The construction is being carried out by Irving Shipbuilding in Halifax, with Lockheed Martin Canada providing the design based on the BAE Type 26. Royal Canadian Navy commander Vice Admiral Angus Topshee and Defence Minister Bill Blair described Canadian Surface Combatant as the largest Canadian shipbuilding project since World War II. The project’s timeline is prolonged, with the first ship expected to be delivered in the early 2030s and in service by 2035. Nine ships are scheduled for delivery by 2040, and the last by 2050. The project's budget is between CAD $56-60 billion, but a 2022 examination by the Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated the cost at CAD $84 billion. Defense News

Peace talks result in unilateral ceasefire with militarized Colombian group Segunda Marquetalia. The Segunda Marquetalia, an armed, dissident faction of former FARC rebels, has agreed to a unilateral ceasefire following days of peace talks in Caracas, aligning with President Gustavo Petro's attempts to cease 6 decades of conflict in Colombia. This ceasefire aims to reduce violence in the country and signifies a move towards lasting peace. The group also agreed to release hostages and protect civilians and officials in its areas of control. The ceasefire will commence with a presidential decree to de-escalate offensive operations, and a "de-escalation agreement" meeting is set for no later than July 20. Colombia seeks to finalize a peace agreement with Segunda Marquetalia before Petro's term ends in a little over two years. Separate talks are also ongoing with the National Liberation Army rebels and Estado Mayor Central, another former FARC faction that never signed a 2016 peace agreement. Reuters

EUROPE

Fears of discord: why NATO and Europe were so alarmed by Biden’s debate performance. The U.S.’s allies, particularly in NATO and Europe, have expressed concerns over President Joe Biden’s performance in the CNN presidential debate against Donald Trump; these concerns, however, are not about Biden's decision-making abilities or potential policies, but about the overall stability of the U.S. Allies believe Biden is sensible and surrounded by rational advisors, ensuring reasonable decisions, and the prospect of a Trump return is already factored into their strategic thinking. Yet their main worry is that the White House cannot provide stability. Certain actions could make Washington appear weak, potentially inviting adversaries like China and Russia to exploit the situation, and such perceived weaknesses could enable foreign powers to disseminate propaganda and sow divisions within the U.S. and the West. Continuous speculation about Biden's ability to govern, especially if he secures a second term, might lead to division and distrust. This uncertainty could impact Biden's ability to push through important policies, like aid for Ukraine, or take decisive actions in global hotspots. Stability is crucial for addressing these challenges effectively. CNN 

Russia objects to Japan’s joint drills with NATO nations. Russia on Friday accused Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of pushing Tokyo "on a path to dangerous escalation" due to Japan’s plans to conduct joint military exercises with Germany and Spain on the island of Hokkaido. Russia's Foreign Ministry issued a protest to the Japanese embassy, stating that it is "categorically unacceptable" to conduct military activities near Russia's far eastern coast, particularly with NATO members involved. The ministry considers these exercises a potential threat to Russia's security and warned of possible countermeasures to ensure Moscow's defense capability. This protest comes in the context of Japan's support for Ukraine, and a longstanding territorial dispute between Japan and Russia over four islands off Hokkaido, known as the Northern Territories in Japan and the Kuril Islands in Russia. This unresolved dispute has prevented the conclusion of a peace treaty between the two nations since World War II. Tokyo has expressed concern over Russia's military buildup on these disputed islands. Reuters

Russia threatens to respond to U.S. drone flights over Black Sea. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov has ordered officials to prepare a response to U.S. drone flights over the Black Sea, citing increased American surveillance activity, which allegedly aids Ukrainian military strikes on Russian targets. The ministry warned on Friday that these flights heighten the risk of incidents involving Russian military aircraft and potential direct confrontations with NATO. This directive follows previous clashes, including a March 2023 incident where a Russian jet damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone, causing it to crash into the Black Sea. Russia asserts that U.S. drones have been flying near its borders and in restricted areas, escalating tensions further, especially after a recent Ukrainian attack on Sevastopol with U.S.-made missiles. Separately, Belarus announced it has bolstered its forces along Ukraine's northern border in response to security threats. Associated Press

As Russian spies materialize, Vienna becomes a hotspot for espionage. Vienna has reportedly become a center for Russian espionage, infiltration, and surveillance in Europe, particularly following the expulsion of many Russian spies pretending to be diplomats from other capitals after the Ukraine invasion in 2022. The number of Russian state employees in Austria has increased significantly, with many believed to be spies. Austria's intelligence agency, aware of the threat, counters espionage within legal limits. Vienna has a history of being an espionage base and continues to host many international organizations; spying is, in fact, legal in the country, as long as it is not aimed at Austria itself. Recent scandals, including the discovery of Russian spies within the E.U. member’s intelligence service, have led to increased scrutiny and expulsions of Russian diplomats. The Austrian government, under pressure from Western allies, is reassessing its ties to Russia and strengthening counterespionage measures. A top Austrian official even suggested that the nation is now “becoming a liability for our neighbors” due to Moscow’s operations and influence, which have run deep since the end of WWII. The U.S. has pushed Austria to distance itself from Russian influence, resulting in actions like blocking a deal involving sanctioned Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska. Wall Street Journal

Italy to purchase fourth and final submarine in U-212 NFS series.  Italy has signed a €500 million ($535 million) deal to purchase its fourth and final U-212 NFS (Near Future Submarine) from state-controlled shipyard Fincantieri. These new submarines will replace the retiring Sauro-class subs, maintaining Italy’s submarine fleet at eight vessels, which are necessary for patrolling the Mediterranean. The deal, managed by the European contracting agency OCCAR, includes logistic support for the new submarine. Fincantieri will launch the first and second NFS subs in 2027 and 2028 and has begun work on the third. Unlike the initial four U-212 submarines, built with German technology from Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, the NFS subs incorporate both German and Italian technology, with Fincantieri as the design authority. Defense News

Germany greenlights money to develop supersonic weapon, buys thousands of missiles. The German parliament has given approval for funds for the development of the supersonic Tyrfing naval cruise missile in collaboration with Norway, as well as the purchase of thousands of missiles. The German government will contribute approximately €650 million to the Tyrfing project by 2033, with Diehl Defense and MBDA handling Germany's portion of the work. Initially, the project will be funded from Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s special military fund, created after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and later from the regular defense budget. The Tyrfing missile, expected to succeed the Naval Strike Missile, is projected to be ready by 2035 and has potential export prospects to other European armed forces. Additionally, Germany's budgetary committee approved the purchase of up to 3,266 Brimstone 3 rockets for its Eurofighter fleet, as well as 506 Stinger man-portable air defense systems for about €395 million to replace those sent to Ukraine. Defense News 

In a final blow to Cold War-era INF Treaty, Putin says Russia may restart deployment of intermediate range missiles. In a move that effectively ends the remnants of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a significant Cold War arms control agreement signed in 1987, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia should resume production of intermediate and shorter-range nuclear-capable missiles. This comes in response to the U.S.’s deployment of similar missiles in Europe and Asia. Washington formally withdrew from the INF Treaty, which aimed to reduce nuclear arsenals, in 2019 under President Donald Trump, citing alleged Russian violations. Moscow denied all accusations but did impose a moratorium on developing these missiles. The Kremlin has now reconsidered following U.S. actions, and Putin mentioned Friday that the U.S. had resumed missile production and deployed them in Denmark and the Philippines. He also stated that Russia must respond to these developments by manufacturing its own strike systems and then decide on their deployment to ensure national security. Both Russia and the U.S. have previously expressed regret over the collapse of various arms control treaties intended to mitigate the Cold War arms race and reduce nuclear war risks. Reuters

France’s far-right secures historic win in first-round vote.  Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party achieved significant gains in the first round of France's parliamentary election, securing 33% of the vote. The leftwing bloc followed with 28%, and President Emmanuel Macron's centrists garnered 20%, according to Monday’s official results. This result is a major setback for Macron, who had called the snap election following a previous defeat by the RN in the European Parliament elections. The final outcome of the parliamentary election will depend on alliance-building before the next week's runoff vote. Reuters New York Times 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Iran Election Goes to a Runoff.  The Iranian presidential election is headed to a runoff, presenting voters with a choice between a reformist candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian, who supports engaging with the West, and a hard-line candidate, Saeed Jalili, who opposes such compromises. This follows the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. The low voter turnout reflects widespread disillusionment with the political system, with many citizens unconvinced that the election will lead to significant change. Despite calls for participation from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, only 40% of eligible voters turned out. The election is seen as a critical moment for Iran, which is facing international scrutiny over its nuclear program, military support to Russia, and internal economic and social issues.  WSJ NY Times CNN 

Iran installs half of planned new centrifuges at Fordow, IAEA report says.  Iran has installed half of the advanced uranium-enriching machines it announced would be quickly added to its Fordow site, according to a report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran informed the IAEA two weeks ago about its plan to expand enrichment capacity at Fordow by adding eight cascades of IR-6 centrifuges. So far, four of these cascades have been installed, though they are not yet operational. This move follows a resolution from the IAEA's Board of Governors calling for Iran to increase cooperation with the watchdog. The U.S. has responded by imposing new sanctions on Iran's oil trade. Iran is currently enriching uranium to up to 60% purity, which is close to weapons grade.  Reuters

Turkey's Erdogan does not rule out meeting Syria's Assad to restore ties.  Turkey is considering restoring ties with Syria, conditional on progress in the fight against terrorism, the safe return of refugees, and the political process, according to recent statements by Turkish President Erdogan. Responding to Syrian President Assad's openness to normalization initiatives that respect Syria's sovereignty, Erdogan indicated that Ankara and Damascus could reestablish relations. However, Syrian officials insist that normalization can only occur if Turkey withdraws its troops from the rebel-held northwest. The potential rapprochement comes amid broader regional efforts to stabilize relations, highlighted by an April 2023 meeting of defense ministers and intelligence chiefs from Iran, Russia, Syria, and Turkey aimed at rebuilding Turkey-Syria ties. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

North Korea tensions front and center at U.S. Security Council meeting. The U.S., Britain, and France challenged Russia at a U.N. Security Council meeting on Friday over allegations that Moscow is violating an arms embargo by using North Korean missiles and munitions in its war against Ukraine. Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia denied these accusations, rejecting the meeting as an attempt by global powers to spread “baseless” charges to “detract attention from their own destructive actions." The latest diplomatic tension comes amid a strengthening military alliance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Nebenzia argued that Russia's cooperation with Pyongyang is constructive and legitimate. During the meeting, the U.S. urged China to leverage its influence to end the disputed military cooperation between the two nations, but Beijing's deputy U.N. ambassador Geng Shuang dismissed accusations that it was encouraging the North and criticized Washington for raising tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Beijing, who last week reacted cautiously to the new military pact between Pyongyang and Moscow, made no reference to it on Friday. North Korea's U.N. Ambassador Song Kim reassured the council that their relations with Russia are defensive and pose no threat. The Security Council remains divided, with Russia and China advocating for easing sanctions on North Korea, a proposal not put to vote due to anticipated failure. Reuters

China tells Taiwanese to visit nation 'in high spirits', despite threat to execute separatists. China’s government has assured the Taiwanese people that the majority of them can visit China freely and without concern, dismissing Taipei's warnings against travel due to threats from Beijing to execute "diehard" separatists. Taiwan raised its travel alert after China issued guidelines threatening prosecution, and potentially the death penalty, for Taiwan independence activists. Late on Friday, China's Taiwan Affairs Office released a statement clarifying that these guidelines target only a small group of separatists. It also accused Taiwan of politically manipulating the situation and unnecessarily scaring its people. Beijing said that the majority of Taiwanese people can travel in “high spirits and depart well content." Though its legal reach does not extend to Taiwan, China has vowed to pursue Taiwan separatists globally. Taipei's travel warning includes Hong Kong and Macau. Reuters

Carrots and sticks: China offering Hong Kong, Macau foreign permanent residents five-year visas. The Chinese National Immigration Administration on Monday announced that foreign permanent residents of Hong Kong and Macau may apply for multiple-entry travel visas with a validity of five years. Starting July 10th, these permanent residents can apply for visas to enter mainland China, though each stay cannot exceed 90 days. This move, which is a sort of reward for foreign permanent residents in Hong Kong and Macau, comes in the wake of controversy concerning Hong Kong’s clampdown on protestors and the subsequent unpopularity of the Beijing-ruled city. The announcement is likely part of efforts to bring back tourists and business travelers after a slight decrease in international appeal. Reuters 

China, Peru complete negotiations to upgrade trade agreement. Media reports announced Friday that China and Peru have reached a “substantial” conclusion in upgrading their free trade agreement, which was originally signed in 2009 and has significantly boosted Peruvian exports. During a meeting in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Peruvian President Dina Boluarte agreed to enhance cooperation in minerals, energy, manufacturing, and agriculture. They also signed agreements to strengthen bilateral ties, including a pact on Peruvian grape exports to China and a memorandum establishing a Peruvian Chinese Business Council. China, the top investor in Peru and its main market for copper, plays a crucial role in Peru's national development plans. Boluarte invited Xi to inaugurate the Chancay "megaport" in November, a major project by China's Cosco Shipping. Xi is also expected to attend the APEC summit in Peru in November. Reuters 

Philippines prepared for talks with Vietnam on South China Sea tensions. The Philippines has welcomed Vietnam's recognition of its U.N. filing to secure rights over an extended continental shelf in the South China Sea and expressed readiness to hold talks with Hanoi to find a mutually beneficial solution. This follows the Philippines' recent claim with the U.N. to extend its entitlements beyond its 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) under international law, allowing for a continental shelf up to 350 nautical miles from its territory. Vietnam has shown willingness to engage in discussions, while China opposes the Philippines' claim, asserting it infringes on its sovereign rights. Both Vietnam and the Philippines have overlapping claims in the disputed South China Sea, alongside China, Brunei, and Malaysia. China claims almost the entire South China Sea, a claim rejected by a 2016 Hague ruling.  Reuters

North Korea launches two ballistic missiles, says South’s military.  South Korea’s military reported that North Korea launched two ballistic missiles on Monday, with the second potentially failing and exploding during an irregular flight, possibly scattering debris inland. Seoul said it is still analyzing the launch and hasn't confirmed any casualties or property damage in North Korea. The first missile traveled about 600 km and the second about 120 km, both launched from near North Korea's west coast towards the northeast. The second missile's trajectory suggests it may have landed near Pyongyang, but further details are unavailable. South Korea denounced the launches as provocations threatening peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and shared intel with U.S. and Japanese authorities. The missile failure on Monday marks the second such incident in five days, following a failed hypersonic missile launch on Wednesday. One of the missiles involved in the test on Monday reportedly resembled North Korea's KN-23 short-range ballistic missile, similar to those used by Russia in Ukraine. South Korean officials believe North Korea's recent missile launches may be demonstrations for potential buyers. Reuters 

Adding AUKUS partners would be 'complicated, says top Australian envoy. Adding more partners to the AUKUS defense project is "complicated," according to a senior Australian diplomat. The AUKUS pact, which involves Australia, the U.S., and Britain, was established in 2021 to counter China's growing influence. Its primary focus is on providing Australia with nuclear-powered submarines, while a potential second phase might include other high-tech weaponry. Paul Myler, deputy head of mission at the Australian embassy in Washington emphasized the complexity of expanding the partnership and noted that the U.S. Congress is likely not open to such an expansion. However, the current partners are exploring collaboration opportunities with Japan, though this does not imply that Tokyo is joining AUKUS. The U.S. export control restrictions pose significant challenges to the project, and there are concerns that including new members too quickly could slow progress. There are also specific reservations about Japan due to its cyber and information security vulnerabilities. Reuters

Central Bank of Myanmar rejects U.N. report on weapons transactions. The Central Bank of Myanmar denied a U.N. report claiming that the military government still has access to money and weapons for its ongoing war against anti-coup forces. In a statement published Saturday, the bank maintained that financial institutions follow prescribed procedures and strongly objects to the U.N. Special Rapporteur's report, which it said harms both Myanmar civilians and international relations. The U.N. report, presented by rapporteur Tom Andrews, indicated that despite international efforts to isolate the junta, Myanmar imported $253 million worth of weapons and dual-use technologies in the 12 months to March, aided by international banks, including those in Thailand. The central bank asserted that transactions are for essential goods like medicines, agricultural supplies, and fuels, following comprehensive due diligence measures. The U.N. report noted a significant drop in exports from Singapore but highlighted that Thai companies increased their transfers to Myanmar, doubling to $120 million in 2023. Thailand's foreign ministry responded on Thursday, stating that its banking institutions follow standard protocols, and the government will review the U.N. report. Reuters

AFRICA

Suicide bombings kills at least 18 in Nigeria’s northeast. Local officials say a series of bombings in Nigeria’s northeast, including attacks at a wedding and a funeral on Saturday, killed at least 18 people, including children, and wounded dozens more. The bombings occurred in Gwoza, Borno State, a region that has been heavily impacted by the Islamist terror group Boko Haram for 15 years. Three female attackers struck different locations in Gwoza, with the first bombing occurring at a wedding celebration. Seven people, including the attacker and a baby, were killed at the wedding. Subsequent bombings occurred near a hospital and at a funeral for a victim of the initial blast. Conflicting reports emerged about the number of explosions, but it was confirmed that at least 30 injured individuals were taken to a larger hospital. President Bola Tinubu condemned the attacks as "desperate acts of terror," and the U.S. Mission in Nigeria denounced the killings as “horrific.” Boko Haram, infamous for having abducted and coerced teenage girls into forced marriages and suicide attacks, has been responsible for significant violence and displacement in the region. No group had claimed responsibility for the attacks by Sunday afternoon. New York Times BBC CNN Reuters

South Africa's Ramaphosa set to reveal cabinet. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is expected to announce his new cabinet live on national TV on Sunday, indicating that factions in his unity government have reached an agreement a month after the ruling African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority in an election. The ANC, having secured less than half the votes for the first time in three decades, has been negotiating cabinet posts with the main opposition, the Democratic Alliance (DA). Reuters

CYBER & TECH

Chinese commercial reusable rocket crashes after unintended launch.  A commercial Chinese rocket crashed and exploded on Sunday after suffering a “structural” problem.  The Tianlong-3 rocket operated by Space Pioneer, which is also known as Beijing Tianbing Technology, unexpectedly launched during a static-fire test in Henan province.  A “structural failure at the connection between the rocket body and the test platform” caused the premature firing of the rocket’s nine engines.  Space Pioneer is described as one of China’s private aerospace companies developing medium-lift, reusable rockets for construction of a satellite constellation similar to SpaceX’s Starlink.  The company said the rocket generated a combined thrust of 820 tons during the test, which exceeds the approximate 400 tons of combined thrust achieved by other Chinese reusable rockets.  Space Pioneer had planned for a Tianlong-3 orbital launch from Hainan Island in coming months.  Although no casualties were reported from the rocket crash, a post on the Weibo blogging platform criticized the test for its proximity to “the densely populated area of Gongyi.”  “The rocket was out of control,” the Weibo post read, and “the company did not even call it an accident in their statement.  Instead, they were busy talking about the rocket parameters.”  Cao Meng, vice-president of the satellite start-up Emposat, said in a Weibo post, “it’s been really hard for China’s commercial space sector to get to where it is today…I ask everyone to be more tolerant and allow more time to let changes happen.”  South China Morning Post  Reuters

New Chinese espionage law opens visitors to smartphone, computer checks.  A new Chinese espionage law that goes into effect on Monday will grant security authorities the right to inspect smartphones and other electronic devices.  The new measure has raised concerns that visitors to China will be subjected to device inspections when entering the country.  The new law allows examination of smartphones and personal computers on a “suspicion of espionage.”  According to Nikkei, media have reported denials by the Ministry of State Security that all arrivals will undergo smartphone inspections.  Provincial party authorities recently have met to discuss national security issues with the party secretary in Anhui province endorsing "the enhancement of big data monitoring and analytics" to counteract espionage.  China’s beefed-up espionage law requires mandatory reporting of suspected spying and offers rewards to citizens for contributing to counter-espionage activities.  Nikkei

China shows versatile military drone options at Eurosatory arms exhibit.  Chinese drone manufacturers exhibited a number of “attractive options” for developing countries at last week’s Eurosatory arms shows.  North Industries Group Corporations (Norinco) displayed rotary and fixed-wing drones, including the Z-6B unmanned helicopter whose VTOL capabilities make it adaptable to large naval vessels.  Timothy Heath, a senior RAND researcher, said “the Z-6B features many technological innovations” including “improvements in stealth, advanced optical sensors, electromagnetic warfare, and attack capabilities.”  Heath added that the Z-6B is capable of multiple missions, including surveillance, targeting, and anti-submarine warfare.  Nishant Kumar, a senior Janes analyst, said China’s rapidly expanding export of low-cost UAV’s “has played a significant role in the growth of China’s arms industry and is expected to continue in the future as well.”  Mark Cozad, another RAND researcher, Cozad said issues like “interoperability, security, reliability and dependence” will likely prevent Chinese inroads into the European drone market, he noted that Beijing’s exports to the Middle East and Africa are an “important part” of China’s arms industry.  Cozad added that “overall, China has developed a wide array of technologically capable drones for use in both [commercial and military] areas.”  He noted that “Western systems cost significantly more for both purchases but also in terms of operations and maintenance costs. For customers … the low cost is a critical factor.”  South China Morning Post

CISA director says U.S. unlikely to outlaw ransomware payments.  CISA Director Jen Easterly told an event at Oxford University last week it is unlikely the U.S. will impose a ban on ransomware payments.  “…Just from a practical perspective, I don’t see it happening,” she said.  Asked by interviewer Ciaran Martin, former head of Britain’s National Cyber Security Centre, to assess the threat posed by ransomware, Easterly said “we have done enormous work with our partners to try and reduce ransomware attacks” adding that “it is not clear that we’ve been terribly effective at it, but I will say it’s very hard to know, frankly, because there is no baseline.”  That shortcoming may be addressed in part, Easterly said, by the introduction of the new U.S. Cyber Incident Reporting for Critical Infrastructure Act.”  The act makes it “mandatory for critical infrastructure owners and operators to report if they have a ransomware attack or a cybersecurity incident.”  Easterly noted that the new rule “for the first time” will give the agency “a sense of the cyberattack ecosystem that we just don’t have.”  The Record

Global police operation dismantles online scam networks, recovers stolen assets.  A joint international law enforcement operation has dismantled online scam networks in multiple countries with arrests of nearly 4,000 suspects and seizures of $257 million in illegal assets.  The “First Light” operation involved police from 61 countries, targeting phishing, investment fraud, and romance and impersonation scams, Interpol reported.  The operation, in addition to resulting in thousands of arrests, identified more than 14,000 suspects across multiple continents.  One of the cases involved the recovery of $3.7 million by Australian authorities on behalf of an impersonation scam victim after the funds were fraudulently transferred to bank accounts in Malaysia and Hong Kong.   Isaac Kehind Oginni, director of Interpol’s financial crime center, said the confiscations and scam network disruptions dealt “a significant blow to the transnational organized crime groups that pose such a serious threat to global security.”   The Record

South Korea's SK Hynix plans $75 billion investment in AI, chips by 2028.  A leading world memory chip maker, South Korea’s SK Hynix, plans investments of $74.6 billion through 2028 focusing on AI.  The announcement followed a two-day strategy meeting of parent company, SK Group, which is seeking to recover from heavy losses suffered by SK Hynix and the company’s electric vehicle battery arm.  SK Group said it will focus on AI products and services, including high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, AI data centers and personalized AI assistants.  SK Group chairman Chey Tae-won noted that at a time of transition "preemptive and fundamental change is necessary."  The South Korean government announced earlier this year a $19 billion support package for the domestic chip sector because of the need to remain competitive in chip design and contract manufacturing.  Reuters

NASA announces ‘couple week’ delay in Starliner return from space station.  NASA officials have announced that the Starliner spacecraft currently docked at the International Space Station (ISS) will remain for a “couple weeks” so that engineers can continue investigating thruster issues aboard the spacecraft.  A joint NASA-Boeing team is test firing the kind of Starliner thrusters that are aboard the spacecraft at a facility at the White Sands Missile Range.  NASA commercial crew chief Steve Stich told reporters that the tests "will be the real opportunity to examine the thruster, just like we've had in space, on the ground for detailed inspection."  A one-hour delay was experienced during the Starliner’s June 6 docking with the ISS because five of its 28 maneuvering thrusters failed, prompting Boeing engineers to tweak the propulsion system's software to restore operations of four of the thrusters. Reuters

Russia’s latest cyber-attacks, provocations have delivered severe blow to U.K. Russian hackers, calling themselves Qilin, last month executed a severe cyberattack on the NHS, impacting London hospitals and GP surgeries. The attack locked pathology service providers out of their IT systems, leading to the postponement of over 1,100 operations, including critical cancer treatments and organ transplants, and the cancellation of thousands of outpatient appointments. Massive amounts of patient records were stolen and published on the dark web. Some view this type of assault as a form of terrorism against the U.K., causing widespread suffering and potentially resulting in deaths. Qilin, active since 2022, previously engaged in criminal activities for financial gain but now claims this assault is linked to Britain's involvement in an unspecified war. There are suspicions that Qilin may be supported or directed by Russian intelligence services, with Russian law enforcement turning a blind eye to their activities. The National Crime Agency has previously disrupted large-scale ransomware gangs, indicating some capacity for counteraction. Analysts suggest that the U.K. must respond more vigorously to prevent further escalation and show that aggression will backfire. This includes considering retaliatory cyber-attacks on Russian military targets and armament factories and increasing support for Ukraine by providing long-range weapons and intelligence. The Telegraph

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Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Ryan Simons & Chase Moabery contributed to this report.

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