Report for Monday, January 6, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Monday, January 6, 2025

Israeli claims it hit 100-plus targets hit in Gaza as ceasefire talks stagger on

Ukraine launches new attack in Kursk region of western Russia

Russia vows retaliation after saying it downed eight US-made long-range missiles

Drones, Exploding Parcels and Sabotage: How Hybrid Tactics Target the West

Taiwan reports massive increase in Chinese cyberattacks

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

8 Global Security Questions For 2025   What’s in store over the next 12 months?  We don’t know for sure.  Nobody does.  But we know what to ask, and what the answers tell us about the shape of 2025 on the global security landscape. Tom Nagorski, Managing Editor of The Cipher Brief, lays out our most piercing questions.      The Cipher Brief  

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israeli claims it hit 100-plus targets hit in Gaza as ceasefire talks stagger on.  Gaza was pummeled by ferocious Israeli fire over the weekend as U.S. and Arab mediators gathered in Doha, Qatar, trying to hammer out a ceasefire deal acceptable to Israel and Hamas leaders. Israel’s military announced Sunday on Telegram that it had hit more than 100 “terror targets” across the enclave during the weekend, eliminated “dozens of Hamas terrorists” and bombed “a number of launch sites, from which some of the projectiles [had been] fired toward Israeli. “The Gaza health ministry said Sunday that 88 Palestinians were killed in Israeli strikes over the last 24 hours.  An Israeli delegation remained in Doha over the weekend, according to Reuters, which reported “slow progress” on talks aimed at making a “limited” deal that would stop fighting temporarily and would free some Israeli hostages, in exchange for some Palestinians imprisoned in Israel.  Reuters reported that Israeli officials believe that Hamas is rebuilding forces in Gaza and recruiting new fighters faster than Israel can eliminate them.  Israeli security officials reportedly told an Israeli parliamentary committee last week that Hamas has up to 19,000 fighters, compared to  roughly 25,000 fighters before the war started. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said in November that Israel’s military had killed close to 20,000 fighters.  The humanitarian situation remains bleak.  The Palestinian Red Crescent Society said Sunday that Israeli airstrikes near Al-Amal Hospital in Khan Younis caused significant damage to several hospital facilities and killed one person. The World Health Organization said that the raid on Kamal Adwan hospital in northern Gaza “put the last major health facility in North Gaza out of service” — and that the remaining patients, caregivers and health workers were transferred to the Indonesian Hospital. In Sunday, Gaza’s health ministry said that the Indonesian Hospital was out of service, leaving northern Gaza with no functioning hospitals.    New York Times  Jerusalem Post  IDF/Telegram 

Hezbollah aide describes Nasrallah’s death inside war operations room.  A senior Hezbollah official  told a news conference Sunday  that an Israeli airstrike on Hezbollah’s war operations room killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Sept. 27, 2024. Israeli airstrikes flattened several buildings in Beirut’s southern suburbs and killed Nasrallah and other senior officials who were meeting in an underground room. Meanwhile, Nasrallah’s successor, Naim Kassem went on television Saturday and threatened Israel with new strikes if its troops are still in  south Lebanon at the end of the month. Israel’s defense minister Israel Katz issued a counter-threat – if Hezbollah’s militants don’t pull north of the Litani River, he said, “Israel will be forced to act on its own to ensure the safe return of the residents of (Israel’s) north to their homes.”  Associated Press   

Israel has a Red Sea dilemma. The Wall Street Journal is out with a piece on Israel and its growing security challenge from Yemen's Houthi rebel group, which has intensified near-daily missile attacks since November. The Houthis, supported by the powerful Iranian regime, present unique difficulties due to their distance from Israel, limited intelligence on their operations, and strong domestic support, particularly after retaliatory airstrikes. Israel has responded with strikes on Houthi infrastructure, and plans to target their leadership, but these efforts have had limited impact in deterring attacks. Some Israeli officials argue the focus should shift to Iran, the Houthis' primary sponsor and Israel's long-term strategic threat. Analysts suggest that targeting Iran directly could weaken its proxy groups, including the Houthis, while taking advantage of Tehran’s current vulnerabilities. Others advocate for building a U.S.-led regional coalition with Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to address the broader Houthi threat, which impacts international trade and Red Sea security. The debate mirrors earlier decisions on whether to directly confront Iran or focus on its proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel has historically subdued proxies without escalating into a larger confrontation with Iran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintains that preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons remains Israel's top priority. Meanwhile, continued strikes on the Houthis serve as a signal to the region that Israel will respond forcefully to threats, even as officials work to improve intelligence on Houthi leadership. Wall Street Journal 

Israel says it helped ex-soldier flee Brazil over investigation into alleged Gaza war crimes, warns citizens against social media posts about military service. The Israeli Foreign Ministry on Sunday said it assisted a former soldier in leaving Brazil after a legal complaint was filed, accusing him of war crimes in Gaza based on social media posts and evidence of his involvement in demolishing civilian homes. The case, filed by the Hind Rajab Foundation, marks a significant step toward holding individuals accountable for actions in Gaza. Brazilian authorities reportedly launched the investigation on Dec. 30th, raising concerns that rank-and-file Israeli troops could face international prosecution. The ministry cautioned its Israeli nationals against posting on social media about military service. Israel rejects allegations of war crimes, claiming its operations in Gaza adhere to international law. The state has continued to blame Hamas for civilian casualties due to their use of civilian infrastructure for military purposes. Meanwhile, violence continues in the West Bank, with Israeli forces conducting raids and clashes leading to devastating Palestinian casualties. Associated Press 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

As another Trump presidency nears, Ukraine’s army is on the defensive. Russian forces are advancing in eastern Ukraine, exploiting their manpower advantage and relentless assaults, pushing to within two miles of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian soldiers describe "horrific" losses and thin defenses, with Valentyn of the 35th Marine Brigade stating, “You kill one Russian, and it’s like two pop up in his place.” Morale is waning as soldiers contend with equipment shortages and frustration toward Kyiv’s delayed mobilization efforts. Taras, a deputy commander near Pokrovsk, warned, “What can we negotiate now? We can only nod our heads and agree to their demands.” Increasingly, troops want negotiations, influenced by President-elect Donald Trump’s call for talks. Meanwhile, Western arms support has declined, and Russian forces use fiber-optic-controlled drones that evade jamming, exacerbating Ukraine’s challenges. In his New Year’s message, President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke of a “fair peace,” signaling a shift toward diplomacy as battlefield pressures mount. Washington Post

Ukraine launches new attack in Kursk region of western Russia. Ukraine launched a new offensive in Russia's Kursk Oblast on Sunday, aiming to regain momentum after holding parts of the region since a surprise incursion last August. Ukrainian forces reportedly attacked from multiple directions, using mine-clearing vehicles and armored units, while employing electronic warfare to disrupt Russian defenses. Russian officials claimed to have repelled the assaults, though independent verification was unavailable. Ukraine has slowed Russia’s counterattacks in recent months despite Moscow deploying reinforcements, including North Korean troops. Kyiv views its presence in Kursk as a strategic leverage point for potential negotiations. Both sides appear intent on shaping the battlefield before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, amid his promise to swiftly end the war. Reuters Kyiv Independent Euromaidan Press New York Times Forbes CNN The Guardian Business Insider

Heavy Russian, North Korean losses in Russia's Kursk region, Zelensky says. President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday reported heavy losses among Russian and North Korean troops near Makhnovka in Russia's Kursk region, with up to a battalion – several hundred soldiers – lost in recent battles. Zelensky urged China to discourage North Korean involvement, emphasizing its potential to influence Pyongyang. Russia has deployed 12,000 North Korean soldiers to Kursk since Ukraine’s surprise incursion in August 2024. Kyiv Independent Reuters Newsweek

Russia claims to capture Kurakhove, Ukraine says fighting ongoing in the sector. Russia claimed on Monday to have fully captured Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast, though Ukraine reported ongoing battles in the area, including 27 Russian assaults repelled near Kurakhove and surrounding settlements. Kurakhove, a key sector in southwestern Donetsk, has seen intensified fighting, with Russian forces reportedly advancing toward Dachne. If confirmed, Kurakhove would be the first major town captured in 2025, following Avdiivka and Vuhledar last year, as Russia aims to seize all of Donetsk Oblast. Kyiv Independent Reuters Associated Press

Zelensky: Budapest Memorandum guarantors ‘didn't give a f**k about Ukraine’. President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized the Budapest Memorandum's guarantors during a podcast interview with Lex Fridman, stating they "didn’t give a f**k" about Ukraine’s security. He highlighted that the memorandum, signed by the US, UK, Russia, France, and China, promised "assurances" rather than true guarantees. Zelensky said that after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and later invasions, Ukraine repeatedly sought consultations as per the agreement but received no responses. "None of them gave a damn about this country, these people, these security guarantees," he said. He recalled how then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel blocked Ukraine’s NATO invitation at the 2008 Bucharest Summit despite US support. Zelensky added that Barack Obama's administration seemed uninterested in Ukraine’s plight, noting the lack of action during critical moments.  Zelensky said that security guarantees for Kyiv to end Russia's war would only be effective if the United States provided them. He hoped to meet U.S. President-elect Donald Trump soon after his inauguration. "Without the United States, security guarantees are not possible. I mean these security guarantees that can prevent Russian aggression," he said, tacitly acknowledging that Kyiv's European allies would be too weak militarily to manage on their own. Zelenskiy cautioned that any decision by Washington under Trump to exit NATO would weaken the military alliance and embolden Putin in Europe. "I'm simply saying that if it does (quit the alliance), Putin will destroy Europe," he said. Ukrainska Pravda Reuters Lex Fridman podcast

Ukraine's military is 980,000 soldiers strong, Zelensky says. Ukraine's military consists of 980,000 personnel, making it the largest in Europe, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a Sunday interview with American podcaster Lex Fridman. This excludes Russia, whose military exceeds 1 million. Zelensky noted France’s 200,000-strong military is four times smaller. Despite its size, Ukraine faces manpower challenges attributed to demographics and mobilization issues. In 2024, Ukraine reduced the mobilization age to 25 but resisted calls to lower it further to 18. Kyiv Independent

Zelensky offers to buy weapons from Trump administration with frozen Russian assets. In a Sunday interview with podcaster Lex Fridman, President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed that he had offered President-elect Donald Trump a proposal to buy U.S. weapons using $300 billion in frozen Russian assets. Zelensky described it as a security guarantee benefiting U.S. industry while ensuring Russia pays for the war. He made the offer during a Sept. 27, 2024, meeting in New York. Although Trump’s response was not disclosed, reports suggest he may maintain military aid to Ukraine. Zelensky also expressed optimism that a Trump administration could accelerate efforts to end the war diplomatically in 2025. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine has received less than half of US assistance allocated during full-scale war, Zelensky says. In a Sunday interview with podcaster Lex Fridman, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated Ukraine has received less than half of the $177 billion allocated by the U.S. during the war. He attributed this to potential corruption or lobbying within U.S. systems. Zelensky highlighted challenges, including costly U.S. transport of arms despite Ukraine offering its cargo planes. While acknowledging domestic corruption, he emphasized Ukraine’s robust anti-corruption measures and rejected claims of profiteering, attributing such accusations to Russian propaganda. Zelensky stressed the importance of U.S. aid despite these issues. Kyiv Independent

Zelensky says Putin doesn't love his country. In a Sunday interview with podcaster Lex Fridman, President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin for sacrificing Russia's youth in wars, stating Putin "does not love his people, only his inner circle." Zelensky highlighted Putin's history of wars, including Chechnya, Syria, and Ukraine, noting 780,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded. He condemned Putin for sending 18-year-olds to die, asserting that Putin invades other countries rather than defending his own. Zelensky emphasized the devastating toll on Russia and its neighbors under Putin’s leadership. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 2, injure 21 over past day. Russian attacks on Ukraine killed two civilians and injured 21 over the past day, regional authorities reported on Monday. Overnight, Ukraine's Air Force intercepted two Kh-59 missiles and 79 of 128 Shahed-type drones, with 49 dummy drones lost. In Kherson Oblast, one person died, and 13 were injured. A man was killed, and a woman injured in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Seven people sustained injuries in Donetsk Oblast due to the strikes. Kyiv Independent

Russia attacks strategic city of Pokrovsk aiming to cut off supply lines, Kyiv military says. Russia’s strategy around Pokrovsk highlights its use of overwhelming manpower and targeted assaults to exploit weaknesses in Ukraine’s defenses. By bypassing the city and focusing on cutting supply routes, Russian forces aim to minimize urban combat while pressuring Ukrainian logistics. The approach, which includes relentless small-unit attacks supported by heavy artillery, has forced Ukrainian troops to retreat from key positions like Novovasylivka, just eight miles from Pokrovsk. Ukraine’s defense struggles stem from significant manpower shortages, delayed mobilization, and equipment gaps. The 155th Mechanized Brigade, once a symbol of international training efforts, has been plagued by leadership failures and desertions, forcing its reallocation to reinforce depleted units like the 59th Motorized Brigade. Ukrainian forces also face challenges countering Russia's use of fiber-optic-guided drones, which evade electronic jamming. Ukrainian soldiers describe growing exhaustion and frustrations with Kyiv’s disjointed support. If Pokrovsk falls, it risks unraveling Ukraine's eastern front. Forbes Reuters

US plans more sanctions on tankers carrying Russian oil, sources say. The Biden administration plans new sanctions targeting Russia’s oil revenues, including over 100 tankers, two oil companies, traders, and insurers linked to Russian crude sold above the $60 per barrel price cap, sources said on Monday. The measures aim to curtail funding for Russia’s war on Ukraine before Donald Trump’s presidency begins. Russia has used aging shadow fleet vessels to evade sanctions, raising safety concerns. The U.S. has briefed India on the sanctions, emphasizing low oil prices could help meet demand. Since 2022, the U.S. and allies have imposed restrictions on Russia’s oil trade. Reuters

Ukraine's big new strategy to relieve its manpower crunch isn't working, top war analyst says. Ukraine’s strategy to address manpower shortages by forming new brigades rather than reinforcing existing ones is not working, according to Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Expanding the force with new brigades, when men are desperately needed to replace losses among experienced formations deployed on the front lines, had visible tradeoffs," Kofman wrote Saturday. With little experience, the new units have been "generally combat ineffective.” The strategy has at least partially disintegrated, with battalions from the new brigades sent to shore up losses in units that were already fighting, Kofman wrote. Amid incremental Russian advances in the Donbas and limited Western aid, Ukraine relies on domestic arms production and innovative drone tactics. However, Kofman warns that these measures alone cannot offset fundamental issues in manpower and force management. Addressing these challenges is critical for Ukraine to sustain its fight in what has become a war of attrition against a heavily resourced Russian military.  Business Insider

The number of Ukrainians open to territorial concessions rises to 38%, poll shows. A new poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology reveals that 38% of Ukrainians are open to territorial concessions to expedite peace with Russia, the highest since measurements began in May 2022. This marks a rise from 32% in October 2024 and just 8% in December 2022. Meanwhile, 51% of respondents oppose any territorial compromise, down from 85% in 2022. The poll coincides with rising expectations of peace talks in 2025, as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prioritizes negotiations. President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged Ukraine’s current inability to retake all occupied territories, emphasizing the need for diplomacy in cases like Crimea. Kyiv Independent

Poroshenko insists on stopping the transit of Russian oil through Ukraine. Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s former president and leader of its European Solidarity party, has urged an immediate halt to Russian oil transit via Ukraine’s Druzhba pipeline, citing the $7 billion in annual revenue it generates for Russia. Speaking on Pryamiy TV on Saturday, Poroshenko emphasized that such transit sustains Russia's war efforts and called for stronger sanctions on the "shadow fleet" enabling Russian oil exports. He plans to propose a parliamentary resolution to terminate the pipeline’s operations and urged President Volodymyr Zelensky to support this measure, which could undermine Russia’s war funding. Interfax-Ukraine

More than 50,000 foreign parts found in Russian drones, missiles launched at Ukraine this week, Zelensky says. Russia launched over 630 drones, 740 guided bombs, and 50 missiles at Ukraine this week, targeting settlements and causing civilian casualties, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Jan. 5. More than 50,000 foreign-made components were found in the weapons, including 8,755 parts in 103 Shahed drones used overnight. Ukraine shot down 61 drones, while 42 were lost. Zelensky called for stronger air defenses, sanctions, and action against Russia's global procurement of weapon components. He thanked international partners for their support and announced upcoming meetings, including a Ukraine Defense Contact Group summit in Germany on Thursday, to coordinate further air defense aid and strategies Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent

Russia vows retaliation after saying it downed eight US-made long-range missiles. Russia claims to have intercepted eight U.S.-made ATACMS missiles and 72 drones launched by Ukraine over the weekend, vowing retaliation for what it sees as escalation. Ukrainian drones reportedly targeted economic and military sites, including a seaport in the Leningrad region, prompting temporary airport closures in St. Petersburg. Meanwhile, Russia launched 81 drones at Ukraine, causing damage in Chernihiv and Sumy, though 34 were intercepted. On the ground, Russian forces continue to gain territory, capturing the village of Nadiya in Luhansk and advancing near Pokrovsk in Donetsk. Both sides appear locked in escalating aerial and ground campaigns as the conflict extends into its fourth year. CNN Voice of America

Drone kills Russian journalist in occupied Donetsk Oblast, wounds 5 others. A Ukrainian kamikaze drone reportedly killed freelance journalist Alexander Martemyanov of Russia's Izvestia newspaper on Saturday while he traveled in occupied Donetsk Oblast. The attack injured five others, including an RIA Novosti journalist. Martemyanov was returning from reporting in Horlivka when his vehicle was struck. The Kyiv Independent could not verify the claims. At least 15 journalists have died covering Russia’s war on Ukraine, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. Kyiv Independent BBC

Russian commander linked to deadly strike in Ukraine severely injured after explosion. Russian commander Konstantin Nagayko, linked to the October 2023 missile strike on a café in Hroza, Ukraine, is critically injured after an explosion in Shuya, Russia, on Jan. 4, according to Ukrainian intelligence (HUR). Nagayko, the 29-year-old commander of the 112th Rocket Brigade, suffered severe shrapnel injuries, including brain damage, and underwent emergency surgery. His unit was responsible for the Hroza strike, which killed 59 civilians during a memorial service for a reburied Ukrainian soldier, including 36 women, 22 men, and an eight-year-old boy. The attack involved a likely Iskander ballistic missile and left five others injured. Kyiv Independent

Three dead in attacks on either side of Ukraine-Russia border. Attacks along the Ukraine-Russia border on Friday killed three people. In Chernihiv, Ukraine, three missiles struck a residential area, killing one and injuring five, while drone and artillery attacks injured nine in Kyiv and Sloviansk. In Russia’s Kursk region, a drone killed a man, and officials claimed to down four Ukrainian missiles after a Ukrainian strike on a command post. In Bryansk, mortar fire killed one resident. Both sides continue to escalate cross-border hostilities. Reuters

Russia strikes residential building in Sumy Oblast, injuring at least 10, including children. Russia targeted a residential building in Svesa, Sumy Oblast, with two glide bombs on Saturday, injuring at least 10 people, including two children, and destroying 15 apartments. Ukraine’s Emergency Service evacuated 14 residents while search operations continued. Svesa, near the Russian border, faces frequent attacks. The village, home to 6,100 pre-war residents, highlights the ongoing vulnerability of border communities in Sumy Oblast. Kyiv Independent

Four Russian airports reopen after suspending flights, aviation watchdog says. Flights at Russian airports in Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, and Perm resumed by 11 a.m. (0800 GMT) Sunday after a temporary suspension for civilian safety, Rosaviatsia announced without providing a reason. Previous closures have been linked to risks from Ukrainian drone strikes. Kazan's airport also suspended flights on Dec. 21 following a Ukrainian drone attack, which caused no injuries. The four cities are situated east of Moscow. Russia’s Pulkovo Airport in St. Petersburg suspended flights early on Saturday, citing safety concerns. Although no specific reason was provided, the closure follows patterns linked to potential Ukrainian drone threats. Alexander Drozdenko, governor of the Leningrad region, confirmed that Russian forces shot down two drones near Luga Bay in the Gulf of Finland. Reuters Reuters

Ukraine is giving its US-made Patriot systems steel armor. Ukraine has begun equipping its U.S.-made Patriot air-defense systems with steel armor to shield them from Russian missile shrapnel and debris. Developed by Metinvest engineers under the Steel Front initiative, the armor comprises around 200 steel plates, each 8mm thick, weighing 2.6 metric tons collectively. The armor does not hinder the system's mobility or functionality despite the weight. Critical to Ukraine’s air defense strategy, Patriots have successfully intercepted advanced Russian missiles like the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal. Mass armor production is underway, with initial installations completed, underscoring Ukraine’s efforts to fortify its air defense assets. Business Insider

Some internally displaced Ukrainians return home — to Russian occupation. Thousands of displaced Ukrainians are returning to Russian-occupied areas due to insufficient government support and extreme poverty. With limited financial aid and inadequate housing in Ukrainian-controlled regions, some choose the hardships of life under occupation, including lack of utilities, unstable electricity, and Russification pressures. Others return to care for relatives or secure property rights amid new Russian laws threatening evictions. Activists criticize Ukraine’s passive approach, highlighting empty state-owned housing and slow reconstruction efforts, leaving displaced persons reliant on volunteers and international aid to survive. These challenges underscore the urgent need for improved state policies for Ukraine’s 3.5 million internally displaced persons. Kyiv Independent

Russian soldiers near Toretsk disguise as civilians to bypass Ukrainian positions, military says. Russian troops near Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast are reportedly disguising as civilians to bypass Ukrainian positions, according to a Ukrainian mortar battery commander. These soldiers, including former prisoners, use anti-tank mines and engage in attacks under fog cover. Recent clashes involved armored vehicles and motorcycles in nearby Nelipivka. Toretsk remains a critical hotspot as Ukraine anticipates further Russian offensives in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, highlighting escalating challenges in defending the eastern front. Kyiv Independent

Drones reportedly target one of Russia's largest sea trade ports in Leningrad Oblast. Drones targeted Ust-Luga, one of Russia's largest seaports in Leningrad Oblast, overnight on Saturday, reportedly damaging windows but causing no casualties, according to Governor Aleksandr Drozdenko. Most drones were intercepted near the Novotrans terminal. This follows a history of Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure supporting the war, including a fire at Novatek's gas plant in Ust-Luga in 2024. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, Jan. 3-Sunday, Jan. 5. SUNDAY– Ukrainian forces resumed offensive operations in Kursk Oblast on Sunday, achieving tactical advances in several areas. Russian forces advanced southeast of Sudzha and counterattacked Ukrainian assaults near Korenevo and north of Sudzha. Russian sources voiced concerns over their military's struggles to counter Ukraine's combined arms tactics integrating electronic warfare and long-range strikes. Russian forces intensified operations east of Pokrovsk. The Russian 41st Combined Arms Army appears to prioritize the envelopment of Pokrovsk. The Russian 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade is deployed across Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, functioning as a tactical penetration force. SATURDAY–Ukrainian forces destroyed or damaged over 3,000 Russian tanks and nearly 9,000 armored vehicles in 2024, highlighting unsustainable loss rates. Russian forces use fewer armored vehicles in frontline assaults, possibly due to diminishing Soviet-era reserves. Ukrainian drone strikes damaged a gas terminal at the Ust-Luga port in Leningrad Oblast on Jan. 3-4, despite Russian claims of minimal impact. FRIDAY–President Volodymyr Zelensky said that achieving a "just peace" requires a strong Ukrainian military, Western security guarantees, and future NATO and European Union membership to deter further Russian aggression. Ukraine plans to enhance its drone and missile production in 2025, including 30,000 long-range drones and mass production of the "Trembita" cruise missile. Zelensky reiterated that Ukraine cannot hold elections during martial law. Ukraine's military intelligence reported that Russian ships will soon transfer military assets from Syria’s Port of Tartus to Libya, signaling a strategic redeployment. Despite promoting its “Glaz/Groza” software, Russian forces rely on improvised communication systems in the field.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk, Kreminna, Toretsk, Kurakhove, Borova and Vuhledar. Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kursk salient and regained lost positions near Chasiv Yar. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War  Saturday-Institute for the Study of War Friday-Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Trump cannot cave in to Putin. Simon Heffer argues that while ending the war in Ukraine is crucial, any settlement rewarding Vladimir Putin's aggression risks undermining NATO's coherence and emboldening further territorial ambitions. He warns that Donald Trump’s promises of a swift resolution require caution, as concessions to Russia could destabilize Europe and jeopardize international security. Heffer underscores NATO’s reliance on U.S. leadership and defense spending, urging stronger sanctions and military investment to maintain unity and deter Putin's broader ideological and territorial aims. The Telegraph

Opinion: Ukraine needs a new sales rep for Trump and the GOP. Jim Geraghty argues that Ukraine needs a new approach to engaging with Republicans, especially under the incoming Trump administration. He critiques Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova for focusing heavily on Democrats and neglecting to build strong relationships with Republican leaders and media outlets. Citing declining Republican support for military aid to Ukraine, Geraghty emphasizes the need for a fresh diplomatic voice capable of appealing to GOP priorities, such as countering Russia’s aggression, safeguarding evangelical Christian freedoms, and defending U.S. credibility. He concludes that Ukraine must recalibrate its messaging to maintain bipartisan U.S. support in the changing political landscape. Washington Post

Opinion: Europe’s chance to secure peace in Ukraine. Krišjānis Kariņš, Latvia’s former prime minister, argues that Europe must take the lead in securing peace in Ukraine amid waning U.S. support. Kariņš warns against appeasing Vladimir Putin, noting that past cease-fires only enabled further aggression. He proposes a coalition of NATO allies to physically defend a potential demarcation line between independent and occupied Ukraine. With Trump’s incoming administration unlikely to prioritize Ukraine’s NATO membership, Kariņš calls on Europe to assert leadership, ensuring Ukraine’s independence and continental stability. He emphasizes the European Union’s need for hard military power alongside increased defense cooperation to achieve lasting peace. Politico EU

THE AMERICAS

Italy’s Prime Minister Visits Trump in Mar-a-Lago. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met President-elect Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday, focusing on key diplomatic issues, including the detention of Italian journalist Cecilia Sala in Iran. Sala was arrested in December, days after Italy detained Mohammad Abedini Najafabadi, a Swiss Iranian accused by the U.S. of aiding Iran's drone program. Meloni reportedly pressed Trump for support in securing Sala's release, as her case reflects Iran's pattern of detaining foreigners for leverage. Trump praised Meloni as a "fantastic woman" and a rising European leader. The meeting, also attended by Trump administration nominees Marco Rubio and Scott Bessent, signals growing U.S.-Italy cooperation ahead of Trump’s presidency. New York Times Bloomberg Reuters 

ANALYSIS–The Islamic State Is a Franchise Now. The Islamic State has transformed into a global franchise, inspiring lone actors to execute low-tech, highly effective attacks such as vehicle rammings, which require minimal preparation and resources. Leveraging social media and propaganda, the group radicalizes individuals remotely, often without direct operational support. Counterterrorism efforts must balance addressing advanced threats like drones and encrypted networks with mitigating rudimentary tactics. Strategies include dismantling technological infrastructure, fortifying public spaces, and addressing root causes like socioeconomic grievances. Despite reduced territorial control, the Islamic State remains a persistent threat, amplifying its influence via propaganda and exploiting global power vacuums. Foreign Policy

ANALYSIS–The Biggest Foreign-Policy Challenges Facing Trump in 2025. Donald Trump’s second term will confront a vastly transformed global landscape, starting with Russia’s war on Ukraine, where he plans to push for peace talks, possibly ceding occupied territories to Russia. In the Middle East, Trump faces complex challenges after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and ongoing conflicts involving Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. In Asia, he may reignite a tariff war with China while tackling issues like Taiwan and South China Sea confrontations amid China’s growing technological and military assertiveness. Domestically, Trump’s trade policies could undermine alliances and disrupt U.S. economic growth. Foreign Policy

Antony Blinken Insists He and Biden Made the Right Calls. Antony Blinken reflected on his tenure in separate interviews with The New York Times and Financial Times, defending the Biden administration’s foreign policy decisions amid crises in Ukraine, Gaza, and Afghanistan. He emphasized U.S. resilience, noting, “Today, we operate from a position of strength,” contrasting with perceptions of decline in 2021. Blinken acknowledged criticism over Gaza, stressing U.S. efforts to balance support for Israel with humanitarian concerns. On Ukraine, he highlighted military aid and coalition-building while admitting the war’s resolution remains elusive. His recount of U.S. leadership underscores lessons from his Holocaust-survivor stepfather: “There’s an extraordinary responsibility that comes with being an American.” As conflicts persist, Blinken expressed hope for enduring peace frameworks. New York Times  Financial Times

What Awaits Latin America in 2025? Latin America faces significant challenges and opportunities amid U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s aggressive rhetoric. Trump has threatened tariffs on Mexico and Panama, raised concerns over Chinese influence, and even suggested reclaiming the Panama Canal. Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino firmly rejected Trump’s territorial remarks, emphasizing national sovereignty. On security, Latin American nations, excluding Mexico and Colombia, joined a new $1 billion partnership to combat organized crime, supported by international agencies. Ecuador, grappling with surging crime, is a focus of these efforts ahead of February’s presidential election. Haiti’s security remains precarious, with calls for transforming its international force into a United Nations-led peacekeeping mission. However, resistance from China and Russia complicates this goal. Meanwhile, Brazil’s presidency of BRICS offers an opportunity to champion economic and climate initiatives while countering Trump’s threats against non-dollar trade. The bloc’s July summit could define its global role. Foreign Policy

President-elect Trump wades into a dangerous world.  The Washington Post describes the chaotic world that Donald Trump will confront as soon as he’s inaugurated - Russia’s war on Ukraine, the Middle East in turmoil, Syria struggling to rebuild, Israel with its reputation severely damaged internationally, key U.S. allies in Europe, particularly France and Germany, weakened.  And then there’s China.  Washington Post   

FBI says New Year’s truck attacker videoed New Orleans streets wearing “meta glasses.”  The man who killed 14 people in New Orleans with his truck on New Year’s Day visited the city twice before and recorded video of the French Quarter with “meta glasses,” an FBI official said Sunday.  Deputy Assistant Director Christopher Raia told a press conference that Shamsud-Din Jabbar, an American citizen from Houston, also traveled to Cairo and Ontario before the attack.  The FBI hasn’t determined whether those trips were connected to Jabbar’s decision to attack a crowd on New Year’s Eve.  “All investigative details and evidence that we have now still support that Jabbar acted alone here in New Orleans,” said Raia. “We have not seen any indications of an accomplice in the United States, but we are still looking into potential associates in the U.S. and outside of our borders.”  FBI agents found suspected bomb-making materials at Jabbar’s Houston house and a transmitter intended to trigger two bombs he left in coolers on the street. There were bomb-making materials at the New Orleans home he rented. Jabbar tried to burn down the house but the flames burned out before firefighters arrived.   Associated Press FBI  

Sources claim Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau is likely to announce resignation. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is reportedly considering stepping down as leader of Canada's Liberal Party after nine years in office, though no final decision has been made, according to sources familiar with the situation. Trudeau is expected to announce his intentions soon, possibly before an emergency meeting of Liberal legislators on Wednesday. Widespread calls for his resignation have grown due to plummeting poll numbers, recent special election losses, and public dissatisfaction with his leadership. If Trudeau resigns, it could leave the Liberals without a permanent leader as they face a likely defeat to the opposition Conservatives in the next federal election, which will be held by late October. Speculation suggests Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc could serve as interim leader, though this possibility remains uncertain. Trudeau has faced increasing challenges in recent years, including the pandemic, economic pressures, housing shortages, immigration, and controversies like the resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who accused him of prioritizing political “gimmicks” over national interests. His tenure has been marked by both significant accomplishments and mounting criticism over governance and policy missteps. Reuters Globe and Mail CNBC New York Post  

Guatemala's military police unit sends another 75 troops to Haiti to battle gangs. A total of 150 Guatemalan soldiers from the nation’s military police unit have been deployed to Port-au-Prince, Haiti’s battle-weary capital, as part of a U.N.-backed mission to restore order amidst relentless gang violence. The troops arrived in two groups, with 75 touching down on Friday and another 75 on Saturday. Additionally, eight soldiers from El Salvador joined the mission on Friday. The mission, headed by Kenya with nearly 400 police officers, is part of a larger international force of 2,500 officers from various countries, including Jamaica, Belize, and El Salvador, with the U.S. as its largest funder. Haiti has been under a state of emergency since March 2024, following intensified gang violence, including the storming of two major prisons that freed 3,700 inmates. The country has faced chronic instability, natural disasters, and political turmoil, worsened by the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, leaving it the poorest nation in the Americas. Reuters BBC Barron's CNN 

Venezuelan opposition leader calls on supporters to force Maduro to leave office.  Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado Sunday urged supporters to demonstrate across the country to force President Nicolás Maduro to step down. Machado told supporters to demonstrate Thursday, the day before Maduro’s next presidential term begins. Maduro’s government has said it will arrest Edmundo González, who claims to have won last year’s election.  “Maduro is not going to leave on his own, we must make him leave with the strength of a population that never gives up,” Machado said in a social media video. “Go outside, shout, fight. It is time to stand firm and make them understand that this is as far as they go. That this is over.”  Associated Press France 24 Reuters Le Monde

EUROPE

ANALYSIS–Drones, Exploding Parcels and Sabotage: How Hybrid Tactics Target the West. Hybrid tactics, such as drones, sabotage, and cyberattacks, are increasingly used by Russia and other hostile states to target Western nations. Norway reported drones over oil rigs and pipelines, which were suspected of espionage and strategic positioning. Recent drone sightings in Britain and Germany, including near Ramstein Air Base, are believed to be state sponsored, signaling hybrid warfare escalation. Key incidents include Russia's alleged testing of explosive parcels and sabotage attempts on underwater cables. NATO’s James Appathurai described Russia's tactics as “reaching levels of growing concern,” particularly since the invasion of Ukraine. Lithuania’s foreign minister, Kestutis Budrys, emphasized the need to neutralize Russia’s military intelligence. NATO is developing a strategy to counter hybrid threats, replacing its outdated 2015 policy. Hybrid warfare expert Charlie Edwards warned that disunity among NATO members enables adversaries like Russia to exploit vulnerabilities, stressing, “Failing to act will mean the Kremlin retains the strategic advantage.” New York Times

ANALYSIS–Russia’s Cable-Cutting Could Threaten Europe’s Whole Energy Supply. Norway's reliance on undersea electricity cables to power its oil and gas platforms, part of its green transition, faces rising threats from suspected Russian and Chinese cable sabotage. Recent incidents in the Baltic Sea, involving ships linked to Russia and China underscore the precariousness of Norway’s infrastructure, which underpins Europe’s energy supply. Norway, now the EU’s largest gas supplier, could face severe consequences if disruptions occur. While Norway’s gas turbines provide a contingency, the transition to clean energy, including offshore wind farms, heightens the stakes. Russian vessels near Norwegian coasts, some equipped with surveillance tools, could easily destabilize operations. The Royal Norwegian Navy and local fishers are intensifying vigilance, but such incidents highlight Europe’s vulnerability to hybrid aggression. As Elisabeth Braw notes, “any vessel could drag its anchor,” potentially plunging Europe into an energy crisis. Much like Ukrainians have displayed, resilience in enduring outages may prove indispensable. Foreign Policy

Britain is vulnerable to ballistic missiles as holes in defense revealed. A Sunday Times investigation reveals growing vulnerabilities in Britain’s missile defense capabilities, prompting NATO to call for increased UK defense spending. Britain lacks land-based air defenses to counter ballistic missile threats, leaving critical infrastructure and military bases exposed. The Royal Navy’s limited fleet of Type 45 destroyers is overstretched and ill-equipped to handle advanced ballistic missiles, while other systems, like Sky Sabre, are inadequate for long-range threats. NATO's updated force requirements emphasize bolstering air defenses, with allies like Germany already advancing their systems. Experts warn that UK defenses must evolve as adversaries like Russia, Iran, and China develop faster, long-range missiles. Military insiders stress urgent investment in new destroyers, advanced radar systems, and expanded air defenses to address emerging threats. With NATO urging greater contributions and adversaries growing bolder, Britain faces mounting pressure to strengthen its defenses against evolving missile capabilities. The Times

Moldovan prime minister warns of security crisis after cut-off of Russian gas. Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean has declared a security crisis following the cutoff of Russian gas to the pro-Moscow Transnistria region on Jan. 1. This has led to widespread blackouts, heating outages, and factory closures. Russia halted gas flows after a transit deal with Ukraine expired, citing Moldovan debts of $709 million, though Chisinau disputes this figure. Recean accused Russia of weaponizing energy to destabilize Moldova and strengthen pro-Russian forces. Moldova has offered alternative energy support to Transnistria, but the region’s leaders have thus far not accepted. Transnistria, reliant on Moscow's free gas, now faces depleted reserves, forcing measures like firewood distribution. The crisis highlights vulnerabilities in Russian-backed territories and Moscow's tactics, underscoring Moldova’s need for energy independence amid mounting regional tensions. Reuters Kyiv Independent Reuters Reuters  

Turkey says it can supply more gas to Europe as flow through Ukraine stops. Turkey has positioned itself as a pivotal energy hub following the halt of Russian gas transits via Ukraine. Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar highlighted Turkey's ability to increase gas exports to central and eastern Europe by up to 10 billion cubic meters annually through the Balkan pipeline, pending European investments. The TurkStream pipeline, at full capacity, feeds Hungary and Serbia while Turkey leverages Azerbaijani and Iranian supplies. In Syria, Bayraktar proposed extending the electricity supply, reconstructing infrastructure, and exploring a potential Qatar-to-Turkey gas pipeline. Additionally, Turkey is advancing nuclear power projects and rare earth mining, diversifying energy partnerships with China, Japan, and the European Union. Nikkei Asia 

Putin Has Options for Russian Gas After Ukraine Route Closed. Russia plans to triple LNG exports to 100 million tons by 2035 and increase pipeline shipments to China, which reached 31 billion cubic meters in 2024. The loss of Ukraine’s gas transit route, which previously generated $6 billion annually, is offset by growing LNG sales and routes like TurkStream and Central Asia pipelines. While EU sanctions limit new projects like Arctic LNG 2 and ice-class tankers, Europe still imports record volumes of Russian LNG. Analysts predict a minimal economic impact on Russia, with losses equating to 0.2%-0.3% of GDP. Moscow’s shift to Asia and other buyers highlights its ability to adapt. The Kremlin sees these developments as breaking diplomatic isolation, bolstered by recent visits from Slovak and Hungarian leaders. Bloomberg

Austria Chancellor Nehammer Quits as Coalition Talks Fail. Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer announced his resignation Saturday after failing to form a centrist coalition, deepening Austria's political uncertainty. Efforts to exclude the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), which won 29% in September elections, collapsed after the Social Democrats and liberal NEOS withdrew from negotiations. Nehammer, leader of the conservative People’s Party (ÖVP), ruled out a coalition with FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl, known for anti-immigration and pro-Russian policies. Austria's economy faces challenges, including potential contraction for a third consecutive year and €18–€24 billion in budget cuts. Nehammer criticized "destructive forces" within the Social Democrats, while their leader Andreas Babler warned of the risks posed by an ÖVP-FPÖ coalition to Austria's democratic foundations. Bloomberg Financial Times

Austrian Far Right Leader Kickl Gets Chance to Form Government. Far-right leader Herbert Kickl is poised to become Austria’s first Freedom Party chancellor after the collapse of centrist coalition talks prompted Chancellor Karl Nehammer's resignation on Saturday. The conservative People’s Party, traditionally opposed to the Freedom Party, shifted its stance under interim leader Christian Stocker, citing the need for stability. Kickl, a divisive figure with pro-Russian and anti-immigrant policies, plans to meet President Alexander Van der Bellen on Monday to discuss forming a government. While the Freedom Party's growing popularity has reshaped Austria’s political landscape, challenges remain, including reconciling divergent policies and addressing economic and European Union-related concerns. Bloomberg  Associated Press Reuters

Georgian businesses and employees to carry out nationwide strike demanding new elections. Georgian citizens are planning a nationwide strike on Jan. 15, demanding the release of detained protesters and new elections. Organized by Protest 24, the three-hour strike will involve businesses and employees halting work to highlight the risks of political isolation, including economic stagnation and poverty. Public dissatisfaction has grown since the disputed parliamentary elections in October and the controversial inauguration of Mikheil Kavelashvili. Protesters criticize the ruling Georgian Dream party, linked to oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, for aligning with the Kremlin and stalling European Union accession, particularly after adopting a foreign agent’s law that led the EU to freeze Georgia's accession process. Kyiv Independent

Serbia ready with China-made FK-3 air defense missile system after ‘very complex’ training. Serbia has completed extensive training on the Chinese-made FK-3 air defense missile system, a variant of China's HQ-22, and is now prepared to deploy it operationally. The FK-3 system, which Serbia acquired in 2019 and received in April 2022, offers medium- to long-range air defense capabilities with a range of up to 100 km. This acquisition marks the first export of such Chinese air defense technology to a European nation. The Serbian Armed Forces have integrated the FK-3 into their 250th Air Defense Missile Brigade, enhancing their defensive capabilities.  South China Morning Post 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Russia is shifting military gear from Syria to Libya after the fall of Assad, Ukraine says. Russia is reportedly transferring military equipment from its naval base in Tartus, Syria, to Libya following the fall of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, according to Ukrainian intelligence. Two cargo ships, Sparta and Sparta II, are set to transport weapons, with three additional vessels en route to Tartus. This movement underscores Russia's shifting strategy in the region as its influence in Syria wanes. Libya, a key hub for Russian operations in Africa, offers a strategic gateway to the Sahel and Central Africa. Meanwhile, Ukraine plans to re-establish diplomatic ties with Syria and assist with grain supplies post-Assad's regime. Business Insider

US to ease restrictions on aid for Syria. The Biden administration plans to announce Monday it will loosen restrictions on humanitarian aid for Syria.  Sanctions will remain in place for other aid to Damascus. The administration decided over the weekend authorizes the Treasury Department to issue waivers to aid groups and companies providing essential services, such as water, electricity and other humanitarian supplies, officials said.  Before more sanctions are lifted, the U.S. wants assurances Damascus won’t renege on promises to protect the rights of women and the country’s religious and ethnic minorities. “Make no mistake, some of the rebel groups that took down Assad have their own grim record of terrorism and human right abuses,” President Biden said in December after Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad fled the country. “They are saying the right things now, but as they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions.”  Wall Street Journal Reuters  

German and French foreign ministers visited Syria last week for talks with new rebel leaders. The foreign ministers of France and Germany, Jean-Noel Barrot and Annalena Baerbock respectively, visited Damascus last week, marking the first EU ministerial visit since the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad in December. The trip focused on assessing Syria's transitional government, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and exploring the potential for lifting EU sanctions. Both ministers stressed that future European support depends on inclusive political processes that involve all ethnic and religious groups and guarantee human rights. The visit included meetings with Syria's civil society, religious leaders, and tours of sites like the notorious Saydnaya prison, where systematic torture was conducted under Assad's regime. While Syrian civil society cautiously welcomed the political changes, concerns were raised about potential exclusion of minorities and extremist shifts in governance. Baerbock and Barrot stressed the need for moderation and urged Syria's new rulers to destroy chemical weapons stockpiles. Barrot also emphasized the inclusion of Kurdish allies in the political process. Despite HTS's controversial past and designation as a terrorist group, the ministers noted a shift toward moderation and sought to evaluate the group’s intentions. The visit reflects Europe’s delicate approach to engaging with Syria’s new leadership while addressing humanitarian concerns and the future of nearly one million Syrian refugees in Germany. Deutsche Welle Al Jazeera France 24  

Handshakegate in Syria. During a historic visit to Syria, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot met the country’s new de facto leader, Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa. The trip, aimed at addressing women’s and minority rights, was overshadowed by Sharaa’s refusal to shake Baerbock’s hand, while offering a handshake to Barrot, who reached out but then pulled back. "Would I have preferred Ahmed al-Sharaa to shake hands with my German colleague? The answer is yes. Was that the purpose of this trip? The answer is no," Barrot said. In the visit, both ministers stressed Syria’s need for reform, while Barrot highlighted threats from chemical weapons and Islamist groups. The visit marked Europe’s first engagement with Syria’s transitional government after Bashar Assad’s ousting in December. Politico EU France 24

Erdogan wants Syria’s support to quash outlawed PKK.  Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said Sunday that Syria's new leadership is determined to root out PKK Kurdish separatists. "With the revolution in Syria... the hopes of the separatist terrorist organization hit a wall," Erdogan told his party's provincial congress in Trabzon.  "...The end of the terrorist organization is near. There is no option left other than to surrender their weapons, abandon terrorism, and dissolve the organization. They will face Turkey's iron fist.”  The Turkish defense ministry separately announced that it had "neutralized" 32 PKK members in northern Syria. It said Turkey's military had "neutralized" four PKK members in northern Iraq.  Reuters 

ASIA & OCEANIA

China, showing no signs of slowing down its drive to crush corruption, vows more investigations, retribution. China is intensifying its anti-corruption crackdown, showcasing efforts to tackle both high-level and grassroots corruption. Ahead of a key meeting of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI), a state TV program highlighted cases of petty corruption, such as bribery in schools and rural projects, to emphasize the government's commitment to combating graft. Last year, 58 senior officials, including military leaders, state enterprise executives, and vice-ministerial-level figures, were investigated, with notable cases involving top officials like former Defence Minister Wei Fenghe and military admiral Miao Hua. The crackdown has also targeted retired officials, reflecting the breadth of the campaign. Experts suggest that corruption remains deeply entrenched, even within the mechanisms designed to prevent it, and that innovative forms of bribery, such as asset transfers to family members, pose new challenges. President Xi Jinping remains committed to the crusade as widespread corruption persists within the party-state and the People's Liberation Army (PLA), which has faced multiple purges. The government aims to reassure citizens by addressing local corruption, which impacts public perception more directly than high-level cases. The anti-graft campaign seeks to strengthen public trust in the Communist Party by demonstrating care for the people's welfare, but there is still a long way to go for Beijing to eradicate this issue. Reuters

Taiwan reports massive increase in Chinese cyberattacks on government, averaging 2.4 million daily attacks. A new report issued by Taiwan’s National Security Bureau on Sunday reveals that cyberattacks on the island’s government departments doubled in 2024, averaging 2.4 million daily attacks, compared to 1.2 million in 2023. Most attacks were attributed to China's cyber forces, which targeted telecommunications, transportation, and defense systems. Some of the attacks coincided with Chinese military drills around Taiwan, including distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks on transportation and financial institutions to amplify harassment and intimidation. The report detailed techniques such as advanced persistent threats, backdoor software, and social engineering to steal information and disrupt operations. China's cyber activities also targeted civil servants' emails and key infrastructure, including highways and ports, aiming to gain advantages in politics, military, technology, and the economy. Taiwan considers these actions to be a part of Beijing’s relentless "grey-zone harassment," amid growing military and political pressure to assert sovereignty over Taipei. Reuters Taipei Times 

China unveils measures to strengthen ports, aviation hubs in its western regions. China on Sunday announced 15 new measures to boost development in its western provinces by enhancing logistical infrastructure, including new and expanded ports, international aviation hubs in cities like Chengdu, Chongqing, Kunming, Xi’an, and Urumqi, and comprehensive bonded zones integrated with transport networks. These efforts aim to improve connectivity across rail, air, river, and sea links. The initiative seeks to address economic disparities between China's western regions and more developed coastal provinces. The western regions, which cover two-thirds of China's land area and include Xinjiang, Tibet, and Sichuan, have faced challenges such as ethnic tensions and security concerns. China's Politburo has also emphasized "new urbanization" in the west, focusing on revitalizing rural areas, alleviating poverty, strengthening energy resources, and increasing trade connectivity with Europe and South Asia through corridors like rail freight routes. Reuters 

South Korean, U.S. diplomats discuss bilateral alliance, North Korea tensions amid political turmoil. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Seoul for talks with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, focusing on the U.S.-South Korea alliance, threats from Pyongyang, and regional cooperation. The visit, Blinken's first to South Korea since President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached over his thwarted martial law attempt, aims to reaffirm the "ironclad" alliance despite political uncertainties. Blinken reaffirmed Washington’s confidence in South Korea's democratic institutions but expressed concern over Yoon’s actions. Key discussion topics also include strengthening deterrence against North Korea, addressing its growing military ties with Russia, and advancing trilateral cooperation with Japan. The talks highlight efforts to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific. Blinken's visit marks the resumption of postponed diplomatic and security schedules and comes as part of a three-nation tour, likely his last as Secretary of State under the Biden administration. Yonhap News Agency Reuters Bloomberg 

North Korea fires ballistic missile as South struggles with political chaos, Blinken visits Seoul. During U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to Seoul on Monday, North Korea conducted an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) test, which the South Korean military said flew over 1,100 kilometers before landing in the East Sea. Blinken stressed that the launch underscores the importance of strengthening U.S.-South Korea-Japan cooperation, including real-time missile data sharing and trilateral military drills. He also warned of growing ties between North Korea and Russia, alleging that Moscow may provide satellite and space technology to Pyongyang in exchange for its support in the Ukraine war, where over 1,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed or injured. The missile launch, the North’s first since November, highlights advancements in its solid-fuel missile technology, which is harder to detect and more reliable than liquid-fuel systems. This development comes amid political confusion in South Korea following the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, raising questions about the sustainability of trilateral cooperation. Reuters Associated Press Yonhap News Agency Bloomberg 

South Korean police reject anti-corruption agency’s request to assume efforts to arrest impeached leader Yoon. South Korea’s daunting political uncertainty deepened on Monday after police rejected a request by the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) for assistance in detaining impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol over his short-lived martial law attempt last month. The police cited legal issues in denying the request, and pressure is mounting, as the detention warrant expires at midnight Monday. The warrant has sparked legal disputes over the CIO's authority to command police and investigate insurrection charges. The agency faced severe criticism for attempting to execute the warrant last week with police involvement, despite lacking clear legal authority. Police officials stated they would handle the case through a joint investigation with the defense ministry, consulting the CIO on warrant execution and related matters. Meanwhile, the CIO plans to extend the warrant and, if Yoon is detained, question him at its office. Yoon has thus far refused to cooperate, arguing that the CIO lacks jurisdiction. The Presidential Security Service (PSS) also did not respond to a request for cooperation, prompting discussions about the possibility of detaining PSS staff if they obstruct another attempt to arrest Yoon. The unprecedented move to arrest a sitting president has ignited protests, with thousands demonstrating near Yoon's residence, both for and against him, despite freezing temperatures. Critics, including Yoon's lawyer, have questioned the CIO's qualifications and handling of the case. Yonhap News Agency Associated Press Nikkei Asia Reuters The Japan Times  

More than 260 ethnic Rohingya flee to Indonesia by boat over the weekend. Over the weekend, more than 260 Rohingya refugees, including women and children, arrived in Indonesia's Aceh province amid a surge in sea arrivals of the stateless Muslim population. The Rohingya, originally from Myanmar, often flee harsh conditions in refugee camps on precarious boats to countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. The latest group landed in East Aceh on Sumatra Island, where the UNHCR is coordinating with local authorities to assist them. In 2023, over 2,000 Rohingya arrived in Indonesia, surpassing the total from the previous four years combined. Nearly 1 million Rohingya live in massive refugee camps in Bangladesh. In Myanmar, the population faces abuse, persecution, and denial of citizenship, as they are viewed as outsiders. Barron's Reuters

Myanmar’s military junta to liberate 5,864 prisoners under annual amnesty. Myanmar’s military government on Saturday announced the release of about 6,000 prisoners as well as the reduction of other inmates’ sentences, as part of a mass amnesty marking the 77th anniversary of independence from Britain. The amnesty includes 5,864 prisoners, among them 180 foreigners. It is unclear, however, if political detainees or high-profile figures like former leader and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi are included. Released prisoners face re-imprisonment if they violate the law again. Mass prisoner releases are a common practice on national holidays in Myanmar. The junta also commuted the life sentences for 144 inmates to 15 years, and reduced most other sentences by a sixth, excluding those convicted under laws often used against anti-military protesters. Since the military’s 2021 coup, over 28,000 people have been arrested on political charges, with more than 21,000 still detained and at least 6,100 civilians killed by security forces, according to a monitoring group. The Guardian Reuters Deutsche Welle 

AFRICA

Rwanda-backed Insurgents in Congo’s east seize key town of Masisi. Rebel forces from the M23 group, reportedly backed by Rwanda, have captured the town of Masisi in North Kivu province, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), marking the second town to be seized in two days. The group, which has been active since 2021, has taken control of large parts of eastern DRC, displacing hundreds of thousands of people and exacerbating the region's humanitarian crisis. Masisi, with a population of 40,000, is located 80 km north of the provincial capital Goma, which M23 briefly occupied in 2012. The capture of Masisi follows the group's seizure of Katale and the resumption of fighting in December after a period of relative calm. While Congolese authorities have not yet commented, local leaders have called for strengthening the army's presence in the region. The M23 claims to protect the Tutsi population in eastern DRC, which has faced long-standing discrimination, but critics accuse Rwanda of using the group to exploit the region's mineral wealth, including gold, cobalt, and tantalum. Rwanda, which a UN report linked to M23's operations with around 4,000 troops, denies supporting the group or facilitating the illegal trade of DRC's minerals. Attempts at mediation between Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame have failed, leaving the region in ongoing turmoil. The conflict has deepened tensions over resource exploitation, with Congo recently suing Apple over the use of "blood minerals," prompting the company to cut ties with suppliers from the region. BBC Reuters France 24 Le Monde 

Mali rebels claim army, along with Russia’s Wagner, killed nine civilians in brutal attack. Nine civilians, including women and children, were killed in an attack on a vehicle in Mali's Segou region last week while traveling to a refugee camp in Mauritania. A coalition of Tuareg rebel groups and a local civil society association accused the Malian army and Russian Wagner mercenaries of carrying out the attack. However, another Tuareg group, Kel Ansar, called for an investigation into the incident, claiming that Malian troops were not responsible. The Malian military and the controversial Wagner Group, which have been active in Mali since military coups in 2020 and 2021, did not comment on the allegations. Wagner forces have been supporting Mali in its fight against Islamist insurgents and Tuareg separatists but have faced accusations of severe human rights abuses against civilians, as reported by Human Rights Watch in December. Reuters Barron's 

China's top diplomat heads to Africa as West's attention dwindles. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has begun his annual New Year tour of Africa, visiting Namibia, the Republic of Congo, Chad, and Nigeria. This 35-year tradition highlights Beijing’s consistent engagement with Africa, contrasting with waning Western focus as Europe and the U.S. prioritize other global issues. China aims to boost financial and infrastructure support, secure critical minerals, and expand markets for exports like electric vehicles. Africa’s UN votes also align with China’s goal to reshape multilateral institutions. Wang’s visit to Chad, amid France’s military withdrawal, signals China’s growing role in regional security. Beijing’s $51 billion aid pledge and focus on African partnerships solidify its influence across the continent. Reuters 

Armed men from Nigeria kill five Cameroonian soldiers amid attempts to seize territory. Armed men, suspected to be Nigerian Fulani militants, killed at least seven Cameroonian soldiers and displaced civilians from 15 villages in southern Cameroon’s Akwaya district this week. The attacks, involving over 300 fighters, included burning homes and targeting a military post. Cameroon’s military retaliated, killing some attackers, but villagers remain vulnerable. Authorities believe militants aim to seize Cameroonian territory. Troops have been deployed, and Cameroon is reportedly collaborating with Nigeria to address the cross-border violence, though details remain unclear. Reuters Voice of America 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

U.S. sanctions Chinese cybersecurity firm for role in Flax Typhoon attacks. The U.S. has sanctioned Chinese cybersecurity company Integrity Technology Group, also known as Yongxin Zhicheng, for aiding state-sponsored hacking group Flax Typhoon in targeting critical infrastructure in the U.S. and globally. Integrity Technology, a major contractor for China's Ministry of State Security, provided infrastructure to hackers between 2022 and 2023, facilitating cyberattacks on universities, government agencies, telecommunications providers, and media organizations. The company was involved in creating and managing a botnet of over 260,000 infected devices, using malware and tools like "vulnerability-arsenal" to control victim systems. Integrity Technology also developed a platform, "KRLab," to manage compromised devices, with a database containing 1.2 million records of infected systems. U.S. agencies dismantled the botnet and froze Integrity Technology's U.S. assets as part of the sanctions. Integrity Technology, which is listed on the Shanghai stock exchange, is a prominent developer of cyber ranges and organizer of hacking competitions in China. The company has been linked to significant government funding and serves as a key player in China's state-backed hacking campaigns. Flax Typhoon, first identified by Microsoft, has targeted critical sectors in Taiwan, Southeast Asia, North America, and Africa since 2021, leveraging Internet of Things (IoT) devices for its operations. These sanctions follow revelations of a separate Chinese hacking breach into the U.S. Treasury Department's sanctions office through a third-party software provider. The Record Reuters U.S. Department of the Treasury Washington Post The Hill Bleeping Computer 

AI’s next leap requires intimate access to your digital life. AI companies, including Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI, are developing "AI agents" capable of performing tasks on computers, such as online shopping and email management. These tools promise productivity boosts but raise significant privacy and security concerns. For instance, agents may misinterpret commands, leak sensitive data, or be exploited for cyberattacks. Critics worry about the extensive data access required, likening it to past controversies like Google Street View. Tech leaders argue agents will enhance productivity, though employees may face increased surveillance or job insecurity. While the technology’s potential is exciting, experts stress the need to address privacy, security, and transparency challenges before widespread adoption. Washington Post

Documents show rival CEO allegedly spread doubt about Nippon Steel deal. Japanese Nippon Steel's $14.9 billion bid to acquire U.S. Steel faced significant obstacles, including not only opposition from U.S. President Joe Biden but also criticism from Cleveland-Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves, who actively cast doubt on the deal's viability. According to documents, Goncalves, whose company made a failed $7 billion bid for U.S. Steel in 2023, repeatedly told investors throughout 2024 that Biden would block the Nippon deal, influencing market perceptions and contributing to declines in U.S. Steel's share price. Biden ultimately blocked the deal in December 2024, citing national security concerns, after the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) could not reach a consensus. Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel alleged "undue influence" from the White House on the CFIUS review process and criticized Goncalves’ efforts to undermine the deal. The White House has denied that Goncalves' comments influenced Biden's decision. Cleveland-Cliffs, with support from the United Steelworkers union, has expressed interest in rebidding, arguing their merger would strengthen domestic steel supply. However, U.S. Steel previously rejected their offer over antitrust concerns. Nippon Steel’s higher bid included promises to revitalize aging U.S. Steel facilities with foreign investment, but the deal became politically charged, with both Biden and President-elect Donald Trump opposing foreign ownership to appeal to voters in Pennsylvania, where U.S. Steel is headquartered. Goncalves privately criticized the CFIUS process as merely a tool for presidential intervention, a “cover for a President to kill a deal,” further complicating the high-profile deal. Reuters

Taiwan’s Foxconn crushes estimates with record fourth-quarter revenue on AI demand. Taiwan's Foxconn, an assembler of Nvidia and Apple products, reported record revenue for the fourth quarter, driven by strong demand for servers supporting artificial intelligence technologies. Quarterly revenue rose 15% year-on-year to NT$2.132 trillion (US$64.75 billion), surpassing estimates. December sales increased 42%, while full-year revenue grew 11% to NT$6.860 trillion, also a record. The growth was fueled by AI server demand, expansion in auto-related business, and strong sales of new computing products. However, its smart consumer electronics segment, including smartphones and game consoles, saw a slight decline due to a high base effect from delayed 2022 orders. Foxconn anticipates significant growth in first-quarter sales and will release full earnings results in mid-March. Its shares rose 2.8% in Monday trading in Taipei. Wall Street Journal Reuters 

Cryptocurrency wallet drainers stole nearly half a billion dollars last year. In 2024, cryptocurrency scammers stole $494 million in wallet drainer attacks targeting over 300,000 addresses, a 67% increase in stolen funds compared to 2023. Despite the small rise in victim numbers (3.7%), the average losses per victim increased significantly. Wallet drainers, phishing tools designed to steal digital assets, were primarily deployed on fake or compromised websites.

Key trends and statistics from 2024 include:

• Major Thefts: 30 large-scale attacks (over $1 million), with the largest heist stealing $55.4 million.
• Quarterly Activity: $187 million was stolen in Q1, fueled by Bitcoin price hikes. Activity dipped in Q2 after 'Pink Drainer' exited but surged again in Q3, led by the 'Inferno' service causing $110 million in losses.
• Targeted Assets: Ethereum accounted for 85.3% of losses ($152 million), with staking (40.9%) and stablecoins (33.5%) being prime targets.
• Methods: Scammers used fake CAPTCHA pages, IPFS hosting, and phishing websites promoted through Google Ads and Twitter Ads. Techniques like the 'Permit' and 'setOwner' signature types facilitated theft by enabling token spending approvals and contract ownership changes.

Scam Sniffer, which tracked these activities, recommends vigilance as scammers increasingly leverage sophisticated tools and tactics to exploit Web3 users. Bleeping Computer 

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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