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Monday, January 30, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security and delivers it to your inbox M–F. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas...

Antony Blinken and William Burns Visit Israel Amid Multiple Security Crises.  Multiple media reports say that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Egypt on Sunday on the first leg of a three day visit to the region.  Blinken heads to Jerusalem on Monday for talks with the Netanyahu administration.  He is also scheduled to meet with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas.  The visit comes amid rising tension between Israel and Palestine following an increase in violence including a terrorist attack that killed 7 people near a Jewish synagogue in Jerusalem on Friday, and an Israeli raid that killed 9 Palestinians in Jenin on Thursday.  Blinken will reportedly repeat US calls for calm amid the violence and restate US support for a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine.  Iran and the Ukraine war are also part of the agenda for the talks.  Blinken’s visit follows a visit by CIA Director William Burns who arrived in the region on Thursday.  Al Jazeera Associated Press Axios Reuters

Senior Air Force General Sounds Warning on War with China in Memo.  Air Force General Mike Minihan sent a memo to the members of his command that says he believes the US will go to war with China in 2025, and offers some specific instructions on how to prepare.  Minihan is the commander of the Air Mobility Command, a major Air Force component with 50,000 troops.  Minihan says his ‘gut’ tells him that conflict will occur and cites 2024 presidential elections in both the US and Taiwan as events that will cause enough distraction to present an attractive opportunity for Beijing to make a move against Taiwan.  Minihan says that his goals are to prepare his command to be ready and offered some advice that included making sure that individuals’ legal affairs were in order, as well as encouraging those under his command to fire a ‘clip’ at a 7 meter target, while aiming for the head as a way of emphasizing ‘unrepentant lethality’.  The memo has sparked global reaction ranging from media to lawmakers and national security analysts.  NBC News Financial Times Nikkei Asia Review Politico

Pentagon Pushing for F-16s for Ukraine.  Politico is out with a new report that says there is a growing effort within the Pentagon to approve sending F16 fighter aircraft to Ukraine.  The reporters for the piece cite three anonymous sources, a DOD official and two other sources reportedly familiar with the discussions.  A senior DOD official told Politico that although there had been no final decision, ‘I don’t think we are opposed’ to the idea of sending the aircraft.  A senior Ukrainian official said over the weekend that Kyiv and Washington were engaged in ‘fast track’ talks over long-range missiles and military aircraft.  Politico says that the White House declined to comment on the story but referenced recent comments by Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer who said that Washington and Kyiv would be discussing the issue of fighter jets for Ukraine “very carefully.”  Politico

Germany's Scholz on 3-day South American Tour of Argentina, Peru and Brazil. German Chancellor Olaf Sholz kicked off a 3-day tour of South America with a stop in Argentina.  Scholz is on his inaugural visit to the region as Chancellor.  Scholz told reporters in a news conference that he hopes a deal between the EU and regional trade bloc Mercosur would be finalized soon.  Scholz will also visit Peru and Brazil on the visit, meant to strengthen Berlin’s ties to the region amid Germany’s efforts to diversify its trade dependance on China and Russia.  Reuters

CNN Reports on the Secretive Process for Selecting NASA Astronauts for Missions.  CNN spoke with a dozen current and former NASA officials on a new report that seeks to describe the secretive process that NASA follows to select astronauts for missions. The report comes amid the upcoming Artemis II mission, which is the precursor operation to NASA’s first manned mission to the moon in 50 years. CNN says that Reid Wiseman, 47-year old decorated naval aviator and the very recent, former head of NASA’s astronaut office is the favored candidate to lead the mission.  Wiseman, before he stepped down from his recent role, changed the rules for selection to allow all of NASA’s current astronauts, 41 currently, to be eligible for selection.  So far the only detail that has been publicly released for the mission is that it will consist of three Americans and one Canadian astronaut.  CNN

Western Europe

Japan, Netherlands Agree to Export Controls Targeting China’s Chip Industry.  Japan and the Netherlands agreed with the US on Friday to implement export controls on advanced chip-manufacturing equipment to China.  Sources say top security officials from the three countries reached the agreement in Washington, marking a major success in US efforts to convince partners to join measures targeting China’s semiconductor industry.  Under the deal, the Netherlands and Japan will at least partially bar ASML Holding NV and Nikon Corp, respectively, from selling some key chip equipment, like lithography machines, to China.  Separately, the EU’s market commissioner said Friday that the bloc backs US-led actions to deprive China of key technologies like semiconductors, though such measures should be limited to what is needed for security purposes and be discussed openly with Europe.  Bloomberg South China Morning Post Wall Street Journal

German Arms Maker to Boost Munitions Output, Considering HIMARS Production.  The CEO of German arms maker Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger, told Reuters that his company is set to boost output of tank and artillery munitions to support Ukraine against Russia.  He added that Rheinmetall is in talks with Lockheed Martin to potentially start producing HIMARS rocket launchers in Germany.  Papperger also called for the Germany government to invest in a new 700 to 800 million euro powder plant for the company to support this planned increase in munitions production.  Papperger’s comments come days before German defense industry leaders meet new German defense minister Boris Pistorius for the first time.  Deutsche Welle Reuters

German Activists Reportedly Donated to Russian Military. Reuters is out with an exclusive report that details a financial donation to support the Russian military made by a German couple described as activists.  Reuters referenced a January 3 special report that first identified the couple as part of a broader investigation of individuals in Germany who maintain a pro-Moscow view and allegedly have close ties to Moscow. Reuters cites a message in a private WhatsApp group as evidence that the couple transferred 500 Euros to a Russian officer who they knew would use the money to buy equipment for Russian soldiers.  Asked by Reuters for comment, one of the couple said her lawyer would ‘give you an answer’, while the other responded with an expletive and an emoji.  An EU regulation from February 2022 bans the supplying of certain goods for the Russian military, and under German law the couple could face up to 5 years in prison, if convicted.  Reuters

Finland Says Wants to Join NATO With Sweden.  Finnish foreign minister Pekka Haavisto said Monday that Finland seeks to join NATO at the same time as Sweden and wants to do so no later than July.  Turkey has suspended talks to support Sweden’s NATO membership bid following protests in Stockholm that included the burning of a Koran.  Ankara signaled that it could support Finland's membership bid before Sweden, and the Finnish government suggested it could take that route.  But now, Haavisto says Finland is reasserting its wish to enter NATO jointly with Sweden.  Turkey and Hungary are the only NATO members who have yet to approve Finland and Sweden’s membership bids.  Al Jazeera Associated Press Reuters

EU President Backs Ukraine Ahead of Summit.  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Saturday that the EU unconditionally supports Ukraine and that Kyiv must win against Russia to protect international law and democracy.  Her comments came ahead of a planned EU-Ukraine summit on February 3.  Reuters

Former British PM Johnson Says Putin Threatened Him with Missile Strike.  Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened him with a missile strike during an “extraordinary” phone call before Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.  Johnson said he used that call to warn Putin of the “utter catastrophe” of a war in Ukraine and attempted to deter any conflict by assuring Putin that Ukraine would not join NATO soon.  Putin allegedly responded by saying he didn’t want to hurt Johnson but that a missile “would only take a minute.”  Johnson made the claim about the phone call in a BBC documentary about Putin’s interactions with other world leaders.  The Kremlin says his claim is a “lie.”  BBC Reuters

British Army Serviceman Charged With Terrorism.  The London Metropolitan Police said Friday that a British army serviceman has been charged with terrorism offenses.  Police said the serviceman attempted to elicit information likely to be useful in an act of terrorism in August 2021 and attempted to plant an article intended to be seen as likely to explode earlier this month.  The serviceman is currently detained and will appear in court later this month.  CNN 

Central and Eastern Europe

ISW Daily Interactive Map of Control of Ukraine.  Here are the latest updates on the Ukraine war and current status of geographical areas of control from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).  ISW

Russia and Ukraine Battle for Control of Villages Near the Key City of Bakhmut as Fighting in East Rages.  Media reports say  that heavy fighting is ongoing around the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.  Ukrainian military officials say they repelled repeated attacks on the village of Blahodante and other nearby locations, while Russia’s Wagner Group claims to have taken control of the town.  Media outlets have been unable to verify either side's claims. Elsewhere over the weekend a missile hit an apartment building in Kharkiv reportedly killing one person, while Russian shelling in Kherson has reportedly killed three people.  On Friday Pavlo Kyrylenko, Ukraine’s governor of the Donetsk region said that Ukraine’s eastern front line was under constant shelling in what he described as “permanent assault” by Russian forces who are attempting to use massive artillery strikes and large numbers of troops to break through Ukrainian defenses.  New York Times CNN Deutsche Welle 

Russia Says Putin Open to Phone Call With Germany’s Scholz.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian media on Sunday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is open to holding a direct phone call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, though there are no such talks planned.  Putin and Scholz last spoke by phone in early December 2022.  Scholz says he keeps regular contact with his Russian counterpart but maintains that Russia must end its war against Ukraine.  Deutsche Welle Reuters

Former NATO General Elected Czech President.  Former NATO General Petr Pavel won the Czech Republic’s presidential election on Saturday.  Pavel won 58.3% of the vote over former Prime Minister Andrej Babis.  Pavel has pledged to reduce polarization and strengthen ties with the EU both through adopting the euro and boosting military support for Ukraine.  Czech presidents hold a largely symbolic role but do choose key officials, like prime minister and central bank heads, and are powerful opinion makers.  Euronews Politico Reuters

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister to Meet New US Ambassador to Russia.  Russian state media reports that Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov is set to meet the new US ambassador to Moscow, Lynne Tracy, next week.  Russia’s foreign ministry says the meeting will consist of the traditional presentation of copies of credentials by Tracy and that her appointment as US envoy is unlikely to improve US-Russia relations amid what the ministry calls Washington’s “hybrid war” against Moscow.  Reuters

Russia Blocks CIA, FBI Websites.  Russian state media reports that Russia’s internet regulator Roskomnadzor has blocked access to the websites of the Central Intelligence Agency and Federal Bureau of Investigation.  The regulator said the websites push out inaccurate information meant to discredit the Russian military and sow discord in Russian society.  The website restrictions are seen as a largely symbolic move amid continued poor US-Russian relations.  New York Times

Russia Relying on Alternative Shipping Companies for Oil Exports.  The Wall Street Journal is out with a report on how a variety of shipping companies are helping Russia continue to export its oil to world markets despite sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine.  The report highlights Indian company Gatik Ship Management, which manages older, previously Western-owned ships to ferry Russian crude to Asia.  These tankers are largely owned by distinct shell companies, some of which operate without insurance due to the price cap blocking them from accessing Western and Japanese insurers.  Experts say that the turn to these alternative shippers shows that the price cap on Russian oil is working, forcing Moscow to find less lucrative ways to export its oil.  Wall Street Journal

Armenia Says Azerbaijan Blockade is Campaign of ‘Ethnic Cleansing.’  Armenia told judges at the World Court on Monday that a blockade of the Lachin corridor into the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region is part of an “ethnic cleansing” campaign by Azerbaijan.  Armenia raised the issue as part of an appeal to the court to order Azerbaijan to end the blockade.  The Lachin corridor is Armenia’s only route to send supplies to Nagorno-Karabakh.  Protesters claiming to be environmental activists have blocked the corridor since December 12.  Azerbaijan denies any part in the blockade.  Reuters

Asia

China, US Clash Over WTO Trade Dispute.  China and the US accused each other of wrongdoing at a World Trade Organization meeting on trade disputes on Friday.  The meeting came after the US appealed WTO rulings against several US trade measures, including steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by the Trump administration against countries including China.  Beijing’s envoy to the WTO said the US trade actions show it is “a unilateral bully, a rule breaker, and a supply chain disruptor.”  The US envoy to the WTO said China was engaging in illegal, unilateral retaliation against US exports and criticized the WTO’s protection of “China’s non-market policies and practices.”  The dispute is unlikely to be resolved soon since the US is maintaining Trump-era blockages of new adjudicator appointments as it seeks to reform the WTO trade dispute system.  Reuters South China Morning Post

China Nuclear Weapons Lab Using US Chips Despite Decades-Long Ban.  Wall Street Journal reports that China’s top nuclear weapons research institute, China Academy of Engineering Physics (CAEP), has been obtaining semiconductors made by US companies like Intel and Nvidia since 2020, despite being on the US Entity List blacklist.  Procurement documents show that the chips are of varying sizes that are difficult to mass produce in China and were bought from easily accessible resellers.  The Wall Street Journal added that at least 34 CAEP papers over the last decade reference use of the US-made chips in research, mainly regarding studies on nuclear stockpile maintenance and nuclear explosion simulations.  The findings underscore the challenge in enforcing chip controls on China.  Nvidia says its chips used by CAEP were general-purpose graphics chips found in a wide variety of consumer products, which it said no company would be able to properly track.  Wall Street Journal

Fiji Ends Policing Agreement with China.  Fiji’s government under new Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka terminated a policing agreement with China on Friday.  Rabuka also suspended Fiji’s police commissioner, who was seen as an ally to former Prime Minister Frank Bainimara.  Rabuka’s moves on the police follow his election as leader in late December and come amid escalating competition between the US and China over Fiji and other Pacific island nations.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Chinese Coast Guard Confronts Japanese Vessels in East China Sea.  Chinese state media reports that the Chinese coast guard drove off five Japanese vessels from waters near disputed East China Sea islets on Monday.  Chinese Marine Police reportedly called on Japan to cease “illegal activities” in waters in the area after the encounter.  China calls the islets the Diaoyu islands while Japan calls them the Senkakus.  Reuters

NATO Chief Visiting South Korea, Japan.  NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg visited South Korea on Sunday to meet President Yoon Suk-yeol and the country’s foreign and defense ministers.  Stoltenberg is then headed to Japan on Monday to meet Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and other top Japanese officials.  Stoltenberg reportedly emphasized NATO’s concerns about North Korea’s missile and nuclear weapons programs, as well as its alleged military support for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.  China’s rising military power was also on the agenda for the visits.  Stoltenberg’s trip aimed to underscore the shared values and challenges of NATO and its Asian partners and called for greater cooperation.  Reuters South China Morning Post

Search Continues for Missing Radioactive Capsule in Western Australia.  Authorities in Western Australia announced Saturday that a radioactive capsule was lost while enroute from from a mine to the state capital of Perth.  The capsule was used for mining operations and contains Caesium-137.  It left the mine on January 12 but was only discovered missing this week.  Parts of the region are under a radiation alert as authorities seek to locate the missing capsule.  Mining giant Rio Tinto Iron Ore, which owns the capsule, apologized for its loss and is also conducting a search for it.  Deutsche Welle Reuters

Pakistan Bombing Kills 32.  An explosion at a mosque in a police compound in the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar killed at least 32 people on Monday.  Health officials say at least 147 other people were wounded in the attack.  Pakistani Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif called the attack a suicide bombing, though authorities are still investigating the incident.  No group has claimed responsibility for the attack.  Reuters Washington Post

Two Indian Air Force Jets Crash, Killing One Pilot.  Two Indian air force fighter jets crashed over Madhya Pradesh state on Saturday.  The air force said that the accident killed one of the three pilots involved and that the military is investigating the incident.  Media reports say that the aircraft involved were a Sukhoi-30 and a Mirage 2000.  Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa 

Alleged Israeli Drone Attack Hits Iranian Military Factory.  Israel appears to have been behind a drone strike on a military factory in the central Iranian city of Isfahan on Sunday.  Iran says it intercepted drones that were attacking a military target in the city, saying there were no casualties and only minor damage in the incident.  A US official told The Wall Street Journal that Israel was responsible for the strike, which would be the first Israeli attack on Iran under the new far-right government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.  Iran has not formally accused Israel of the attack and the Israeli military has not yet commented on the matter.  A Pentagon spokesperson said no US forces were involved in the attack but did not provide additional details.  The attack came amid efforts to contain Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.  Additionally, an aide in the Ukrainian president’s office tweeted that Iran had been warned of such incidents, apparently connecting the attack to Iran’s reported support of Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.  Politico Reuters Wall Street Journal

Jerusalem Synagogue Shooting Kills Seven.  A Palestinian gunman opened fire on people near a synagogue in East Jerusalem on Friday, killing seven people and wounding three others.  Police killed the gunman at the scene of the attack, which Israeli authorities called a “terrorist incident.”  The attack came amid rising violence between Israel and Palestine following an Israeli raid in the town of Jenin in the occupied West Bank which killed nine Palestinians.  Al Jazeera BBC Reuters

Israel Boosts West Bank Military Presence, Passes Counterterrorism Measures.  Following the synagogue shooting, the Israeli military said it is deploying more forces to the occupied West Bank.  Israel’s Security Cabinet also responded by announcing new counterterrorism measures.  The new measures include the expedited sealing and demolition of homes of those accused of committing terrorist attacks, as well as the revocation of national insurance rights and Israeli identity cards for families of known terrorists.  Deutsche Welle France 24 Reuters

Shooting at Azerbaijan Embassy in Tehran Kills One.  A gunman killed a person at Azerbaijan’s embassy in the Iranian capital of Tehran on Friday.  Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry said the person killed was the chief of the embassy’s security service and blamed an “anti-Azerbaijani campaign” by Iran for encouraging the attack.  The ministry called the shooting an “act of terrorism” and has decided to evacuate embassy staff and their family in response.  In contrast, Iran’s foreign ministry said the gunman had “personal” motives.  The Iranian judiciary backed this by saying the attacker believed that his missing wife was being held at the embassy.  CNN Reuters

Top US Sanctions Official Visiting Oman, UAE, Turkey.  The US Treasury Department’s top sanctions official, Brian Nelson, undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, will travel to Oman, the UAE and Turkey this week to warn countries and businesses in the region against circumventing US sanctions related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Iran’s destabilizing activities in the region.  The department said that Nelson will convey that those who evade sanctions could be cut off from G7 markets.  He will also reportedly discuss ways the US can boost cooperation on issues like illicit finance and terrorist financing with the countries he is visiting.  Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

$30 Billion Committed to Improve Food Production in Africa.  The President of the African Development Bank told an audience at a food security summit on Friday that $30 billion dollars has been committed by international partners to improve food security in Africa.  The event was in the Senegalese capital of Dakar and brought together African nations with international partners including the US and the EU. African is facing its worst food crisis in history with UN estimates that more than 278 million people in Africa are facing food shortages.  Reuters

Cyber and Tech

US, EU Sign First AI Collaboration Agreement.  The US and EU reached an agreement on Friday to expand collaboration on the use of artificial intelligence.  Officials say the deal is the first sweeping trans-Atlantic AI agreement, going beyond past initiatives focused on enhancing privacy and instead calling for stronger usage of AI modeling in a variety of areas, including agriculture, healthcare and emergency response, climate forecasting and electrical grids.  The new agreement facilitates access to stronger AI models without issues related to data transfers.  Reuters White House

TikTok Releasing Details on US National Security Proposal.  TikTok has submitted a proposal to the US Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) regarding the future of the video app in the US.  The proposal, known as Project Texas, will see TikTok divulge key segments of its technology to US tech giant Oracle and a group of third-party auditors to verify that the app is not promoting Chinese influence campaigns or sending US user data to China.  The proposal calls for the control of US user data by a separate entity called TikTok US Data Security, which would be led by a CFIUS-approved board.  Oracle would then operate “gateways” that facilitate the CFIUS-approved flow of data from the US entity to the rest of the world.  The proposal aims to give the US government oversight and monitoring authority over the app’s US operations to address data and national security concerns.  CyberScoop

Russia’s Sandworm Hackers Behind Ukraine Data Wiper Malware Attack.  The Ukrainian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-UA) has found five new data-wiping malware strains on the networks of Ukraine’s national news agency Ukrinform.  CERT-UA says threat actors gained remote access to Ukrinform’s networks in early December and waited over a month to activate the malware in a “failed” attack last week.  CERT-UA and other cybersecurity researchers linked the attack to Russian hacking group Sandworm, the main hacking element in the Russian GRU.  BleepingComputer CyberScoop

NSO Group Seeks to Reassure Critics of Spyware Commitment.  The CEO of Israeli spyware company NSO Group, Yaron Shohat, visited Washington to reassure critics that its spyware is being used for counterterrorism and anti crime purposes.  Shohat’s Washington visit comes as NSO faces severe consequences for 2021 findings that its spyware was being used by governments to spy on journalists, human rights activists and politicians.  Shohat told media outlets he hopes to demonstrate the progress NSO has made in terminating and flagging customers who abuse the company’s spyware, though he has not disclosed many specifics on the process besides saying that NSO’s clients are countries the US would sell weapons to and that Saudi Arabia is not a current customer.  Axios Wall Street Journal

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