Report for Monday, January 27, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Monday, January 27, 2025

Ukraine Claims Second Hit on Major Russian Oil Plant in Days

CIA embraces lab leak theory on Covid-19 origin

Tulsi Gabbard’s Unorthodox Path to Trump’s Intelligence Team.

Baltic Sea data cable damaged in the latest case of potential sabotage

“Sputnik” moment for Chinese AI causes rout in U.S. tech stocks

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Wanted: A US Strategy for ‘Offense’ in Cybersecurity. The U.S. is facing an onslaught from adversaries in cyberspace. Some have argued that a good defense isn’t good enough – that the U.S. has to stop our adversaries before they strike. Notably, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz has said the U.S. should “start going on offense and start imposing… higher costs and consequences” for cyberattacks directed at U.S. targets. To understand what an offensive strategy might look like, The Cipher Brief spoke with George Barnes, former NSA Deputy Director; Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery (Ret.), former Executive Director of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission; and Lieutenant General Charles L. Moore (Ret.), former Deputy Commander of U.S. Cyber Command at the Cyber Initiatives Group Winter Summit; and received written comments from David Charney, a psychiatrist who worked as a consultant to the Central Intelligence Community.  The Cipher Brief  

Expert Q&A: Should Trump Meet Putin? President Trump has said a meeting with the Russian leader is in the works. Good idea? Cipher Brief Managing Editor Tom Nagorski asked John McLaughlin, a Cipher Brief expert who served as Acting Director of the CIA and who knows a thing or two about sitting down with “bad actors.” McLaughlin’s advice: for starters, get something meaningful. “It’s a gift, and in return for a gift, the American president ought to get something before this even starts.” The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

US has not stopped military aid to Ukraine, Zelensky says. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that U.S. military aid to Ukraine continues despite U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announcing a 90-day pause on foreign aid grants. Speaking alongside Moldovan President Maia Sandu in Kyiv on Saturday, Zelensky highlighted Ukraine’s reliance on the U.S. for 40% of its military supplies. The U.S. has provided $65.9 billion in military support since Russia's 2022 invasion. Associated Press

US officials push to exempt Ukraine from Rubio’s foreign aid freeze. U.S. diplomats are urgently seeking exemptions for Ukraine-related programs from Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 90-day freeze on foreign aid, citing national security concerns. Rubio’s Friday directive halted most foreign aid disbursements, impacting over $70 billion in contracts. While military aid to Ukraine remains unaffected, support for schools, hospitals, and infrastructure is at risk. USAID in Ukraine has paused issuing "stop work" orders while awaiting a decision on the waiver request. However, some organizations have already received suspension notices. The freeze excludes military financing for Israel and Egypt but lacks explicit exceptions for Ukraine’s non-military programs. Financial Times Bloomberg

Putin echoes Trump’s claim that war in Ukraine could have been avoided had he been in office. Russian President Vladimir Putin has praised U.S. President Donald Trump as “clever and pragmatic” and expressed readiness to meet for talks on Ukraine and other issues. Putin echoed Trump’s assertion that the Ukraine war could have been avoided if Trump had been in office in 2022, calling the 2020 U.S. election “stolen.” Trump has repeatedly claimed he would have prevented the war and criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for not negotiating with Putin earlier, saying, “He shouldn’t have allowed this war to happen.” Putin pointed to a 2022 decree by Zelensky barring negotiations as a barrier to peace. Trump has threatened new sanctions and tariffs on Russia while urging OPEC to lower oil prices to reduce the Kremlin’s financial ability to sustain the war.  Associated Press The Guardian Reuters Euronews

Putin is trying to 'manipulate' Trump, says Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of attempting to "manipulate" U.S. President Donald Trump to secure a peace deal favorable to Russia, sidelining Ukraine and Europe. Zelensky warned of “Putin's readiness to continue the war and manipulate world leaders” but expressed confidence that such efforts would fail. Putin, praising Trump as “smart” and “pragmatic,” echoed Trump’s claim that the 2020 U.S. election was “stolen” and suggested the Ukraine war might have been avoided under Trump’s leadership. “We are ready for these negotiations on Ukrainian issues,” Putin said, proposing talks with Trump based on “today’s realities.” Reuters 

Trump envoy hopeful Russia-Ukraine war will end as deadline looms. In an interview Friday with Fox News, Keith Kellogg, special envoy to Russia and Ukraine under President Donald Trump, expressed optimism about ending Russia’s war on Ukraine. He emphasized the importance of economic strategies in ending the war, suggesting that financial pressures could be pivotal in compelling both parties toward a peace agreement. Kellogg also highlighted the international demand for a diplomatic solution, noting that sustained economic sanctions and support for Ukraine's defense capabilities are essential in influencing Russia's actions. He underscored the need for a unified global stance to achieve a lasting resolution. Fox News

Lukashenko says he has ‘no regrets’ about Belarus helping Russia to invade Ukraine. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Sunday he has "no regrets" about allowing Russia to use Belarus as a launchpad for its invasion of Ukraine, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin as his "older brother." During a press conference, Lukashenko dismissed concerns about Western criticism and reiterated his support for Russia’s actions. He rejected claims that recent political prisoner releases were aimed at mending ties with the West and showed no inclination to shift his stance on the war in Ukraine. Lukashenko’s alignment with Russia has deepened Belarus’s international isolation since Russia’s 2022 invasion. The Guardian

'Just evil': Top Republican details Russia's mass abductions of Ukrainian children. Rep. Michael McCaul, a Texas Republican and former chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has highlighted Russia’s abduction of up to 250,000 Ukrainian children as one of the most egregious atrocities of the war. McCaul described Russia's actions as "just evil." He detailed accounts of forced indoctrination, with some children subjected to military training or housed in harsh conditions. “It’s horrific,” McCaul stated, reflecting on the anguish of parents coerced into surrendering children under threats or outright abductions. The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and children’s rights commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova in 2023 for war crimes. McCaul continues raising awareness by screening a documentary, Children in the Fire: Ukraine’s War Through the Children’s Eyes. He condemned the Kremlin’s denials as propaganda, asserting this barbarity exemplifies Putin’s strategy to weaponize Ukrainian youth. Fox News

Putin lauds the strength of Russia’s war economy. Others see a mirage. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claims of economic resilience, including GDP growth outpacing the U.S. and Europe, mask deeper issues. Analysts describe Russia’s war economy as running “on steroids” or “cocaine”—unnatural and unsustainable. Inflation surged to 9.5% in 2024 despite a 21% interest rate. A credit bubble linked to hidden war financing risks overwhelming banks. Western sanctions are biting harder, with Gazprom reporting a $7 billion loss, its first in decades. Rising labor shortages, xenophobia, and sanctions leave Russia’s economy stretched thin. Despite Putin’s bravado, these headwinds suggest Moscow may struggle to sustain war spending and social stability, potentially forcing new compromises. CNN

Russia sees no signs that Ukraine and the West are ready for peace talks. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Friday that neither Ukraine nor the West appears ready for peace talks despite increasing rhetoric about their necessity. Lavrov criticized continued Western military support for Ukraine, Kyiv’s legal ban on negotiations, and unresolved questions about the legitimacy of Ukrainian authorities. Lavrov’s remarks, published on the Russian Foreign Ministry’s website, contrasted with President Vladimir Putin's December assertion that Russia was open to talks with anyone, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Reuters

Russia says its troops have captured Velyka Novosilka, a strategic town in eastern Ukraine. Russia claimed on Sunday the capture of Velyka Novosilka, a town of 5,000 in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, after months of battle. Russia’s capture of Velyka Novosilka would mark its first major 2025 victory, with implications for neighboring Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Ukraine confirmed strategic withdrawals to prevent encirclement while fighting continues. The withdrawal aims to complicate further Russian advances by using the Mokryi Yaly River as a natural barrier. Russian forces have sought to break Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk, capturing key cities like Avdiivka and Vuhledar last year.  Analysts like Pasi Paroinen criticize Ukrainian leadership for delaying withdrawals, potentially trapping hundreds of troops. Critics emphasize the need for quicker Ukrainian strategic decisions. Associated Press  Kyiv Independent

Another Ukrainian Brigade Is Disintegrating as It Deploys To Pokrovsk. The 157th Mechanized Brigade, a newly formed Ukrainian unit, is disintegrating as it deploys to defend Pokrovsk, a key frontline city in Russia's war on Ukraine. Lacking proper training, experienced leadership, and modern equipment, the brigade has suffered heavy losses and poor morale. Similar issues plagued the 155th Mechanized Brigade, which collapsed in December. Critics argue that Kyiv should have reinforced veteran units instead of deploying fragile new brigades, citing leadership and organizational failures. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has since halted the formation of new brigades, redirecting recruits to strengthen existing units, but too late for the 157th Brigade. Forbes

Zelensky again replaces commander of Ukraine's key eastern front. President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced Major General Andriy Hnatov with Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi as commander of Ukraine's Khortytsia operational-strategic group, marking the third leadership change in less than a year for this key eastern front. Drapatyi's appointment aims to strengthen frontline operations and improve brigade training amid intensified Russian advances in the Donetsk region. Zelensky emphasized aligning staffing and training with battlefield needs in his nightly address on Sunday. Russian forces are advancing near Pokrovsk, a vital defensive hub, threatening supply routes and Ukraine's hold on the region. Hnatov will transition to Deputy Chief of the General Staff for training and communication. Reuters

Facing exhaustion and North Korean troops, Ukraine's soldiers say the war needs to end. Ukrainian soldiers facing exhaustion and mounting challenges in the Kursk region have voiced their desire for peace. “Morale is down. The boys are tired,” said Chapi, a fighter, adding, “We need to freeze the lines for six months and negotiate.” The front line, reinforced by North Korean troops, has intensified the conflict. Soldiers described the North Koreans as aggressive and precise, with some refusing capture by choosing death instead. Ukraine’s conscription has introduced less experienced soldiers, and training remains insufficient, with one medic, Voodoo, calling it “a box-ticking exercise.” Google, a conscript, dreams of returning to civilian life but acknowledges, “We want peace.” Despite capturing two North Koreans, holding Kursk has become increasingly difficult. Soldiers like Yaryi, a former martial arts fighter, believe peace is impossible without Russia’s withdrawal. “If they get 20 percent of our territory, it’s not peace. They’d attack again,” he warned. CBC

Ukraine's Kursk invasion was a risky play, but it might have nailed the timing. Ukraine’s bold incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August 2024 could become a key bargaining chip as peace negotiations gain traction. The operation, described as “quite deliberate” by Tim Willasey-Wilsey of King’s College London, aimed to seize territory and momentum, with Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon emphasizing, “Whoever holds Kursk is going to be in the box seat for any ceasefire negotiations.” While Ukraine has struggled to retain control of Kursk, Zelenskyy’s October “victory plan” and Trump’s push for negotiations underscore the region’s strategic value. Trump’s economic pressure on Russia may accelerate talks. Business Insider

Ukraine Claims Second Hit on Major Russian Oil Plant in Days. Ukraine launched drone strikes on Sunday, targeting Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery for the second time in three days. The facility, key to fueling Russia’s military, sustained explosions and fire, according to Ukraine’s General Staff. A prior attack on Friday damaged equipment critical for producing diesel and jet fuel. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported intercepting 15 drones across Kursk, Belgorod, and Ryazan but did not confirm the refinery attack. Ryazan Governor Pavel Malkov cited ongoing damage assessments with no reported casualties. The refinery, owned by Rosneft PJSC, processes 340,000 barrels daily and supplies fuel to central Russia, including Moscow. Bloomberg Reuters Reuters Reuters Moscow Times

Ukraine strikes drone storage facility in Russia's Oryol Oblast and destroys 200 Shaheds. Ukrainian forces struck a drone storage facility in Russia's Oryol Oblast on Sunday, destroying over 200 Shahed drones, according to Ukraine’s General Staff. The targeted facility housed thermobaric warheads, causing a secondary explosion. Shahed-136 drones, widely used by Russia since 2022, have been deployed against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. This follows earlier strikes in Oryol, including the destruction of drone maintenance centers and an oil depot in December. Kyiv Independent

Inside the Ukrainian drone unit conducting deep strikes on Russia. Ukraine’s 14th Unmanned Aerial Systems Regiment has intensified long-range drone strikes on Russia, targeting logistics hubs, ammunition depots, and infrastructure deep behind the front lines. Known for its secrecy, the regiment’s operations aim to weaken Russia’s military-industrial capacity. Casper, the battalion commander, emphasized, “Our main goal is to decrease our enemy's pressure on the front.” The regiment, equipped with domestically produced "Lyuty" drones, includes analysts and engineers and claims some drones have a range of 2,000 kilometers. Co-founder Fidel highlighted their successes, including strikes on Russia’s Engels airbase, while cautioning that drones alone cannot determine the war’s outcome: “You still need infantry, artillery, and aviation.” A recent attack reportedly hit a Russian oil refinery and microchip factory, with dramatic footage showing flames in the Ryazan region. Casper estimated a 40-50% efficiency for their weaponry. Reuters

Transfer of Air Force personnel to infantry continues despite scandal. ​​The Ukrainian military's controversial transfer of Air Force personnel to infantry units continues despite public backlash and presidential condemnation. Over 5,000 personnel, including aviation specialists, are set to transition due to poor mobilization results. Soldiers report significant risks, with transferred Air Force members suffering high casualty rates. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi admitted to a critical shortage in mechanized brigades but emphasized safeguarding irreplaceable specialists. Lawmaker Ruslan Gorbenko defended the transfers, citing evolving defense needs. Critics warn the reassignments threaten Ukraine's air defense capabilities, with many personnel lacking adequate training for ground combat. Despite reassurances, soldiers say little has changed operationally. Kyiv Independent

Ukrainian defense minister fires weapons director tasked with sniffing out corruption. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov fired Maryna Bezrukova, head of the Defense Procurement Agency (DPA), despite the board unanimously voting to extend her contract. Umerov cited “unsatisfactory” results, amending the DPA charter to override board decisions. Bezrukova, managing a $7.3 billion budget, stated, “I will stand in my position until the end.” Under Bezrukova, 61% of contracts were signed with Ukrainian companies, 27% with foreign defense firms, and 12% with intermediaries. She focused on cutting out corrupt middlemen and securing direct deals for critical military supplies. Tensions arose when Umerov redirected $546 million from the DPA to the State Border Guard Service, disrupting pre-contracted deals and raising concerns about procurement integrity. Critics, including Anastasiia Radina, head of parliament’s anti-corruption committee, called for Umerov’s resignation, warning his actions undermine reforms and jeopardize Western aid. Meanwhile, U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg proposed using frozen Russian assets to bolster Ukraine’s defense. Kyiv Independent New York Post Ukrainska Pravda

Europe is cautiously optimistic about Trump’s Ukraine comments. Donald Trump's return to the presidency has drawn mixed reactions from Europe, particularly regarding Ukraine. While his unpredictability and contentious policies, like tariffs and Greenland discussions, spark concern, his comments on pressuring Russia to end the war in Ukraine offer cautious optimism. Trump’s proposals to increase NATO defense spending to 5% of GDP have gained some acceptance, reflecting evolving European defense priorities. His Cabinet choices, including Russia hawks like Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio, bolster hopes among Ukraine supporters. However, skepticism remains. Trump’s Vice President JD Vance and others oppose ongoing aid to Ukraine, raising fears of compromised support. Critics argue Trump prioritizes expediency over democratic principles, increasing the risk of a flawed deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. European officials worry a premature peace deal could allow Russia to regroup for future aggression. Trump’s inconsistent approach keeps allies vigilant as they brace for potential policy shocks. Politico

What leverage does Trump have over Putin in Ukraine peace negotiations? Quite a lot. Donald Trump’s return to the presidency has introduced new dynamics in Ukraine peace negotiations. Trump warned Russia of harsh sanctions, tariffs, and “negotiating the hard way” if Vladimir Putin resists peace talks, declaring, “If a deal is not reached, I will have no other choice.” Experts believe Trump’s leverage lies in Russia’s faltering economy, military losses, and diplomatic vulnerabilities. “The leverage is with Trump, not Putin,” said Timothy Ash of Chatham House. Economic pressure, particularly sanctions targeting Russian energy giants like Gazprom and Rosneft, could cripple Russia’s economy further. Research scholar Edward Fishman emphasized that “turning up the heat now” could get Russia to negotiate. Military aid is another lever; a Trump-approved weapons package, potentially funded by frozen Russian assets, might accelerate talks. Diplomatically, Trump must unify allies and consider Ukraine’s territorial compromises. “Unity among Ukraine, Europe, and the U.S. strengthens Trump’s hand,” Thomas Graham of the Council on Foreign Relations said. Kyiv Independent

‘An opportunity, not a burden:’ Ukraine House Davos seeks investors amid war. At Ukraine House Davos, Executive Director Ulyana Khromyak emphasized Ukraine’s investment potential, stating, “Ukraine is not a burden, but a country of opportunity.” Addressing world leaders and investors, she highlighted Ukraine’s $26 trillion in natural resources, including $12 trillion in minerals, as well as opportunities in agriculture, defense, and infrastructure. Khromyak urged investors to act now, stating, “Everyone will be queuing after the war,” while showcasing success stories like the $1.5 billion Datagroup-Volia-Lifecell merger. Discussions also centered on securing war risk insurance and utilizing $350 billion in frozen Russian assets for Ukraine’s recovery. Khromyak expressed optimism about U.S. President Donald Trump’s support, referencing his “strong messages” for peace and economic growth. “We have no choice other than to win this war,” Khromyak said. Kyiv Independent

Zelensky Says Ukraine Is Ready to Transit Gas from Azerbaijan. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced readiness to transit Azerbaijani gas to Europe using Ukraine’s infrastructure, saying, “We won’t let the Russians profit, but will we let the Azerbaijanis earn? With pleasure.” The proposal follows Russia’s cessation of gas transit through Ukraine after a key agreement expired on Jan. 1, drawing criticism from Slovakia and Hungary, which previously relied on the route. Zelensky discussed the plan with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, highlighting Azerbaijan’s export capacity of 25 billion cubic meters annually. However, experts doubt Azerbaijan’s ability to supply big volumes, suggesting potential swaps involving Russian gas rebranded as Azerbaijani. Additionally, Zelensky offered free coal to Moldova’s energy-stricken Transnistria region in exchange for electricity. Bloomberg Politico EU

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 4, injure 7 over past day. Russian attacks killed four civilians and injured seven in the past day, regional authorities reported on Monday. In Kherson, one was killed and two injured; in Donetsk, one killed and four injured. Two women were killed in Kharkiv, with an elderly woman injured. Air defenses shot down 57 of 104 drones targeting Ukraine overnight. A strike on Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast hit infrastructure but caused no casualties. Kyiv Independent

Russia launched over 1,250 bombs, 750 drones at Ukraine during Trump's first week in office. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that Russia launched over 1,250 bombs, 750 drones, and 20 missiles targeting multiple Ukrainian regions, including Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia, during the past week. Highlighting the need for unity, sanctions, and long-range defense systems, Zelensky emphasized protecting lives. This comes as U.S. President Donald Trump, in a Jan. 23 Davos address, proposed leveraging oil prices and sanctions against Russia to end its war on Ukraine swiftly. Kyiv Independent

Explosions reported in Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk amid drone attack, apartment building damaged in Dnipro. Russian drone attacks early Monday struck multiple Ukrainian regions, including Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, and Dnipro. In Ivano-Frankivsk, residents were urged to stay in shelters during a prolonged air raid alert. A residential building in Dnipro suffered damage to its upper floors, windows, and nearby vehicles, though no casualties were reported. Khmelnytskyi also experienced explosions. This follows previous strikes on Jan. 15 in Ivano-Frankivsk targeting critical infrastructure. Kyiv Independent

Russia launches four drone strikes in Kharkiv. Russian forces launched four drone strikes on Kharkiv Saturday, targeting the Shevchenkivskyi, Kyivskyi, and Kholodnohirskyi districts. A Molniya drone strike caused a fire in Shevchenkivskyi, while disruptions to water and electricity were resolved within hours. Three individuals experienced stress-related symptoms. Kharkiv, located near the Russian border, has endured frequent attacks over the past two years, with Moscow often targeting densely populated areas. Kyiv Independent

SBU foils Russian missile plot on Ukrainian military institute. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) arrested an 18-year-old military cadet in Lviv Oblast on Friday for allegedly aiding Russia's Federal Security Service. Accused of treason, she reportedly provided geolocations of military facilities and barracks in exchange for money, enabling potential strikes on Ukrainian positions. The cadet was detained while attempting to send coordinates and flee. Evidence seized included a mobile phone and laptop. If convicted, she faces up to life imprisonment and property confiscation. Kyiv Independent

Zelensky’s man in DC. David Arakhamia, a close ally of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and leader of the Servant of the People Party, attended Donald Trump’s January 20, 2025, inauguration. As one of the few foreign dignitaries present, his participation highlighted Ukraine’s effort to secure continued U.S. support amid the war with Russia. Insiders claim Trump takes the issue seriously, with formal talks expected soon. Despite calling Zelensky “no angel,” Trump has warned Russia and pledged military aid while aiming to broker a deal by spring. The Independent

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, Jan. 24-Sunday, Jan. 26. SUNDAY–Russian forces claimed full control of Velyka Novosilka on Sunday, but Ukrainian forces-maintained positions, with heavy fighting ongoing. The Russian Ministry of Defense highlighted Velyka Novosilka's seizure to shape Western perceptions and undermine support for Ukraine. The Russian command may shift Eastern Military District forces from Velyka Novosilka to prioritize operations in Toretsk, Zaporizhia, or other fronts for spring and summer offensives. Russian forces near Toretsk aim to advance toward Kostyantynivka, while Ukrainian salients southwest of Toretsk face intensified pressure. Ukraine struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery for the second time on Saturday-Sunday, targeting Russian military fuel supplies. SATURDAY–Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Moldovan President Maia Sandu met to discuss energy solutions for Transnistria, proposing coal supplies and electricity-sharing agreements to lower Moldova’s energy costs by 30% despite Transnistria’s reliance on Russian gas. The Kremlin aims to strengthen Russian Iraqi relations. FRIDAY–Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to misrepresent Ukraine’s 2022 decree banning talks with him as an obstacle while signaling disinterest in good-faith negotiations. Zelensky signed the 2022 decree in response to Russia's illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories but remains open to negotiations under specific conditions. Putin sought to present himself as an equal to Donald Trump, proposing direct talks to bypass Ukraine’s involvement. Putin expressed concerns over falling oil prices, which could destabilize Russia's economy and impact its war efforts. Russia is reviving efforts to dissuade Western military aid to Ukraine, mischaracterizing battlefield realities. A new 2025 security framework with Belarus aims to integrate the two nations under Russian control further.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Borova, and Velyka Novosilka, while Ukrainian forces regained positions in Toretsk and Kursk Oblast. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War Saturday-Institute for the Study of War Friday-Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Does Putin know why Ukraine fights? Because we prize freedom above stability and wealth. Andrey Kurkov emphasizes that Ukraine’s war against Russia is fundamentally a battle over the value of freedom. Ukrainians prioritize freedom over stability or wealth. He recounts the sacrifices of individuals like Volodymyr Vakulenko and Victoria Amelina, whose dedication to freedom cost their lives. Kurkov warns that freedom requires vigilance, as complacency risks its loss. Ukraine thrives culturally and democratically despite the war, demonstrating freedom's enduring importance. The Guardian

Opinion: When Ukrainian resistance symbols fade. Artem Chekh reflects on how symbols of Ukrainian resistance, once powerful and inspiring, have faded as the war drags on and heroism becomes routine. He recounts the personal loss of his symbolic mug during a retreat, marking the shift from idealism to survival. Chekh emphasizes that the true symbols now are the resilient people who persist—fighting, working, and contributing despite exhaustion. He asserts that Ukraine’s strength lies not in external symbols but in its unyielding individuals enduring the hardships of war. Al Jazeera

Opinion: To end the Russia-Ukraine war, Trump will need to get leverage. Steven Pifer argues that President Donald Trump needs substantial leverage to mediate a durable settlement in the Russia-Ukraine war. He suggests Trump request a $40-$50 billion U.S. military aid package for Ukraine, work with allies to tighten sanctions on Russia, and transfer frozen Russian Central Bank assets to Ukraine. These measures, Pifer notes, would pressure Vladimir Putin to negotiate seriously and signal Trump's tough stance as a mediator. A successful agreement with strong security guarantees for Ukraine would enhance Trump’s global influence and reputation, potentially securing the Nobel Peace Prize he reportedly desires. The Hill

THE AMERICAS

Trump’s ‘Golden Age’ economy touts’ tariffs, low taxes, cheap energy. The Wall Street Journal deconstructs President Donald Trump’s vision of a new “Golden Age” of America. Or is it a new “Gilded Age,” complete with robber barons? He’s talking fewer rules, lower corporate taxes and cheaper energy — and tariffs on imported goods – a 10% tariff on goods from China and 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico starting Feb. 1.  But can he tame inflation and deliver for blue collar workers?  Wall Street Journal  

CIA embraces lab leak theory on Covid-19 origin. The CIA issued a new assessment on Covid-19’s origins this week, with analysts now favoring the lab leak theory. The analysis is based in part on a closer look at the conditions in the high security labs in Wuhan province before the pandemic outbreak, according to people familiar with the agency’s work. John Ratcliffe, the new C.I.A director, leans toward the lab leak hypothesis. Officials said the agency was not bending its views to a new boss, and that the new assessment, which it assigns a ‘low confidence’ ranking, had been in the works for some time.  Wall Street Journal New York Times Fox News BBC   

Tulsi Gabbard’s Unorthodox Path to Trump’s Intelligence Team.   Tulsi Gabbard’s nomination as Director of National Intelligence by President Trump has sparked significant debate due to her unconventional background and ideological shifts. A former Democratic Congresswoman from Hawaii, Gabbard began her career as a socially conservative legislator influenced by her upbringing in the controversial Science of Identity Foundation. She later became a Democratic Party star before aligning with conservative figures and Trump’s administration. Critics point to her limited intelligence experience, ties to the Assad regime, and past positions on U.S. foreign policy, including her defense of whistleblower Edward Snowden and criticism of NATO’s role in provoking Russia. Gabbard’s supporters argue her independence and military service make her an asset, though skepticism remains about her ability to navigate one of the most sensitive national security roles. Her confirmation hearing is expected to highlight these divides as senators scrutinize her qualifications and affiliations.  New York Times

As Hegseth takes charge at the Pentagon, here’s what changes could be in store. Newly appointed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faces a complex array of challenges as he begins his tenure at the Pentagon. A primary focus is President Donald Trump's directive to bolster military presence along the U.S.-Mexico border, which includes evaluating the deployment of active-duty troops for law enforcement roles—a move that may involve invoking the Insurrection Act. Hegseth is also tasked with navigating the intricacies of the Pentagon's substantial budget, determining the future of aid to Ukraine amid a State Department freeze on foreign assistance, and supporting the ongoing ceasefire in Gaza. Additionally, he is expected to implement Trump's executive orders aimed at dismantling diversity, equity, and inclusion programs within the Department of Defense, reassess policies concerning transgender service members, and address reproductive healthcare provisions for military personnel. His approach to these issues will significantly influence U.S. defense strategy and internal military policies in the coming period. Associated Press 

ANALYSIS–Trump and Putin want to negotiate beyond Ukraine. The relationship between Moscow and Washington is on the table, possibly even denuclearization. The major treaty limiting the arsenals of both nations expires in 2026. Trump clearly wants to be seen as a peacemaker. Russian President Vladimir Putin wants a deal with the U.S. He said Friday the Kremlin and the Trump administration could “jointly look for solutions to the key issues of today, including strategic stability and the economy.” New York Times 

Trump White House freezes foreign aid projects pending review. The U.S. Agency for International Development has received a “stop-work” directive from the White House that effectively freezes U.S. foreign aid worldwide until projects are realigned with Trump’s foreign policy priorities. On Friday, the State Department issued a stop-work order worldwide even for existing and appropriated assistance, including life-saving humanitarian aid. The United States is the world’s largest single donor of aid. In fiscal year 2023, it disbursed $72 billion in assistance. It provided 42% of all humanitarian aid tracked by the United Nations in 2024. Reuters 

Colombian leader reverses course, accepts deportation flights after Trump threatens 50%  tariffs.Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s refused entry to two U.S. military aircraft carrying migrants and accused President Donald Trump of not treating immigrants with dignity, but on Sunday Trump brought him to heel with threats of visa restrictions, 25% tariffs on all Colombian incoming goods, which would be raised to 50% in one week, and other punitive acts. “We will not allow the Colombian Government to violate its legal obligations with regard to the acceptance and return of the Criminals they forced into the United States,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a late Sunday statement that the “Government of Colombia has agreed to all of President Trump’s terms, including unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States, including on U.S. military aircraft. Washington Post New York Times Bloomberg Financial Times Reuters Bloomberg The Hill Associated Press NBC Reuters  Bloomberg Reuters New York Post  

Trump aides push fast tariffs on Mexico, Canada. President Trump’s advisers want to levy 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as soon as Saturday. Mexico is cooperating with Trump’s migrant repatriation flights, accepting four flights in one day, and has reinstated the remain-in-Mexico policy for migrants. But officials say Mexico and Canada must do more to avoid tariffs. Wall Street Journal  

Acting deputy AG visits Chicago to ‘observe’ immigration enforcement crackdown. On Sunday, January 26, 2025, Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove visited Chicago to oversee the initiation of intensified immigration enforcement operations. This coordinated effort involved multiple federal agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF). The operation targeted approximately 270 individuals identified as "high-value targets" with active warrants. Television host Phil McGraw, known as "Dr. Phil," accompanied agents during the operation, emphasizing that the focus was on specific individuals rather than indiscriminate neighborhood sweeps. The initiative is part of the Trump administration's broader strategy to enhance immigration enforcement, which includes deploying U.S. troops to the border and expanding the authority of federal agents to conduct immigration-related actions. These measures have elicited criticism from immigrant rights groups and local officials, who express concerns about potential overreach and the impact on immigrant communities.  CBS 

Haitian leader says the Trump administration’s plans will be ‘catastrophic’ for his country. Leslie Voltaire, president of Haiti's transitional presidential council, has expressed deep concern over the Trump administration's recent decisions to freeze aid programs, deport migrants, and block refugees, describing these actions as "catastrophic" for Haiti. In a meeting with Pope Francis at the Vatican, Voltaire highlighted the dire situation in Haiti, where rampant gang violence has led to widespread civilian casualties and displacement, and half of the nation's 11.4 million people are experiencing hunger. He emphasized that the loss of humanitarian assistance would exacerbate these crises. Voltaire also discussed plans for general elections later this year, contingent upon strengthening the multinational police force currently operating in Haiti. He firmly opposed any involvement of gangs in the political process. The meeting concluded with a proposal for an international conference of solidarity for Haiti, aiming to garner global support to address the nation's escalating challenges. Associated Press 

EUROPE

Europe Is Pouring Money into Defense. Is It Enough? European NATO members are boosting military spending amid heightened Russian aggression and an isolationist Trump presidency. NATO's 2% GDP defense target, set in 2014, has become a baseline rather than a ceiling, with Trump urging members to aim for 5%. Eastern Europe, led by Poland, has surged ahead, while other nations debate increases amid competing social spending priorities. Analysts argue spending thus far has primarily replenished depleted stockpiles, leaving Europe ill-prepared for prolonged conflict. Fragmented national defense strategies and limited economies of scale further hinder military effectiveness. Experts warn that sustained investment is vital to counter ongoing Russian threats. New York Times

Europe braces for 'most extreme' military scenario as Trump-Putin 2.0 begins. Europe is bolstering its defenses amid fears that Russia may expand its aggression, while skepticism over U.S. commitment under Donald Trump’s presidency heightens concerns. Lithuania plans to mine bridges to Russia, NATO is targeting Moscow’s “Shadow Fleet” in the Baltic Sea, and Europe is developing a missile defense system akin to Israel’s “Iron Dome.” Trump’s comments, including that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “shouldn’t have fought” Russia, have alarmed European allies. French President Emmanuel Macron called Trump’s isolationism a “wake-up call,” while Eastern European nations are rapidly increasing defense spending to deter potential Russian incursions. NBC News

EU Set to Agree to Extend Russia Sanctions, Hungary to Back Down. The European Union is poised to extend sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine, with Hungary set to withdraw its opposition during a meeting in Brussels on Monday. Hungary, which had delayed the decision since December, previously linked its stance to energy security and the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine. In return for its support, the EU will issue assurances on energy security and commitments to help Ukraine stabilize its infrastructure. This marks the 16th sanctions renewal since 2022. Bloomberg

Trump Alarms Denmark in an Icy Exchange Over Greenland. U.S. President Donald Trump held a contentious 45-minute phone call with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen on Jan. 15, insisting on U.S. control over Greenland. European officials described the exchange as "aggressive," with Trump rejecting Frederiksen’s firm stance that Greenland is "not for sale." Despite Frederiksen offering increased military and economic cooperation, Trump reportedly threatened tariffs on Denmark and hinted at military force. Greenland’s strategic Arctic location and resources are central to Trump’s demands, which he framed as essential for "Western security" against Russian and Chinese interests. Frederiksen emphasized Denmark’s readiness to bolster Arctic security but upheld Greenland's autonomy. New York Times Financial Times

Donald Trump ridicules Denmark and insists US will take Greenland. Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump mocked Denmark’s defense of Greenland, saying, “They put two dog sleds there… they thought that was protection.” Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump insisted that the U.S. would take control of Greenland, asserting, “It really has to do with freedom of the world. They [Denmark] can’t provide it. We’re the ones who can.” He described Danish refusal to cede Greenland as “a very unfriendly act,” adding, “I think Greenland will be worked out with us. I think we’re going to have it. I think the people want to be with us.” Financial Times

Danish Premier Reminds US of Strong Alliance Amid Greenland Spat. On Sunday, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen emphasized Denmark’s strong alliance with the U.S., reminding Americans that Denmark has supported U.S.-led wars, losing 44 soldiers in Afghanistan and eight in Iraq. “I think it is important that everyone in the U.S. remembers how good an ally Denmark has been,” she told TV2. Frederiksen reiterated that Greenland is not for sale, and its future lies with its local population. “Denmark has been a good ally, we are a good ally now, and we intend to continue to be one,” she added. She preferred private discussions with the U.S. over public debates. Bloomberg

How Russia profits from arms exports to Saudi Arabia despite sanctions. Leaked emails reveal that Saudi Arabia paid Russia €2.17 billion for Pantsir-S1 air defense systems under a 2021 contract, despite sanctions and the war in Ukraine. The contract included equipment, training, and integration with Saudi systems, raising concerns over potential access to Western military technology. Russia has maintained arms exports to about 12 countries, including India, China, and Algeria, despite a 53% decline in export volume since 2014. Arms sales, a key revenue source, also bolster Russia’s geopolitical influence, exemplified by Saudi Arabia’s mixed voting record at the United Nations. Kyiv Independent

Belarus president to extend 30-year rule as critics slam ‘sham’ election. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko secured a seventh term in a heavily criticized election widely deemed a sham. Official results showed that he won 87.6% of the vote, with no credible opposition and all independent observers barred. Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya called the election a “ritual” to perpetuate Lukashenko’s rule, urging Belarusians to vote against all candidates. The European Union and U.S. condemned the vote as illegitimate, with over 1,200 political prisoners, including Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski, held in dire conditions. Lukashenko, reliant on Russia, dismissed Western criticism, proclaiming, “I don’t give a damn about the West.” His dependence on Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to deepen. Reuters Reuters Associated Press France 24  New York Times RFE/RL CNN The Guardian Washington Post

EU rejects election in Belarus and threatens new sanctions. The European Union denounced Belarus’s presidential election on Sunday as illegitimate, with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and enlargement commissioner Marta Kos calling it a “sham election” that was “neither free nor fair.” In a joint statement, they criticized the regime’s "relentless and unprecedented repression of human rights, restrictions to political participation, and lack of access to independent media," which stripped the process of legitimacy. They demanded the release of over 1,000 political prisoners, including an EU delegation employee in Minsk. The EU pledged to continue imposing sanctions against Belarus, citing its support for Russia’s war on Ukraine. Associated Press 

Belarus Releases Detained U.S. Citizen Anastasia Nuhfer, Says Washington. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced Sunday the release of American citizen Anastasia Nuhfer from a Belarusian prison. Details of her detention, which occurred during Joe Biden's presidency, remain unclear. Belarusian opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya welcomed the release, emphasizing the ongoing plight of political prisoners under Alexander Lukashenko’s regime. Nuhfer’s release coincided with Belarus's "sham" presidential election, further spotlighting the country’s international criticism for suppressing dissent and detaining opposition figures, including U.S. citizen Yuras Zyankovich. RFE/RL

Inside Belarus’ secret program to undermine the EU. Leaked documents and intercepted calls expose Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s regime orchestrating illegal migration to the European Union since 2021 as part of a hybrid warfare strategy retaliating against EU sanctions over his disputed re-election. Belarusian authorities directed state-controlled tour companies to attract migrants with promises of easy EU crossings. Migrants were transported to EU borders by special units, with guards instructed to ignore their movements. This strategy triggered humanitarian crises at the borders with Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania. Despite international scrutiny, the scheme persists, focusing on smaller, highly organized migrant groups to maintain political pressure on the EU. Politico EU

Baltic Sea data cable damaged in the latest case of potential sabotage. An undersea fiber optic cable connecting Sweden’s Gotland Island with Latvia’s Ventspils was damaged early Sunday in Sweden’s exclusive economic zone, likely due to external interference. Swedish and Latvian authorities have launched criminal investigations, with Sweden seizing a ship suspected of involvement. NATO’s Baltic Sentry mission, deploying naval assets to safeguard infrastructure, coordinates the response, highlighting concerns about critical infrastructure vulnerabilities in the Baltic Sea. Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa described the damage as significant, suggesting sabotage, while Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson confirmed close NATO collaboration. The incident follows prior undersea damage in the Baltic linked to Russian and Chinese vessels, raising fears of escalating threats as Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania prepare to disconnect from the Soviet-era electricity grid. Communication reroutes mitigated immediate impacts, and repair efforts are being arranged. Financial Times Reuters 

Russia says it does not threaten undersea cables. On Friday, the Russian Embassy in London denied UK Defense Minister John Healey’s accusations that the Kremlin was threatening undersea cables. Healey had highlighted Russia's "malign activity" at sea, citing a Russian spy ship’s monitoring of British infrastructure. The embassy labeled the claims as baseless, asserting that Russia poses no threat to NATO nations’ undersea systems. Concerns over sabotage have grown since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine following several infrastructure outages in the Baltic Sea. Britain plans to enhance defenses. Reuters

Russian security official says the risk of a clash between nuclear powers is growing. Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu warned Friday that the risk of clashes between nuclear-armed powers is increasing amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Speaking to TASS, he criticized NATO’s growing activities near Russia and Belarus, including military exercises. Shoigu emphasized that Belarus now falls under Russia’s nuclear “umbrella” following changes to Moscow’s nuclear doctrine, which allows nuclear responses to weapons of mass destruction or critical threats to sovereignty. He framed these measures as preventative against Western destabilization attempts, underscoring the potential for violent confrontation among nuclear states in the current geopolitical climate. Reuters

Turkey pushing to help EU replace Ukraine gas transit. Turkey is renewing efforts to position itself as a key energy hub for the European Union. Turkish EU Ambassador Faruk Kaymakcı said Saturday that energy cooperation will top Ankara’s agenda. This follows the suspension of high-level energy talks in 2019 due to a dispute over gas drilling rights near Cyprus. Turkey is offering to expand its Southern Gas Corridor, which currently delivers 18 billion cubic meters of gas from Azerbaijan and leverage its TurkStream pipeline with Russian gas. Hungary and Slovakia are pushing for alternatives after Ukraine ended Russian gas transit through its pipelines. Politico EU

Moldova's separatist region says gas is running out. Vadim Krasnoselsky, leader of Moldova's Russian-backed separatist Transnistria region, warned that gas reserves would run out within days amid power and heating cuts. He accused Moldova’s government of delaying gas supplies and appealed to the United Nations and world leaders for help. Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean said that gas flows could resume only if Russia's Gazprom reinstated supplies or if Transnistria paid for European gas. Moldova blamed Russia for the crisis, citing its refusal to settle arrears and alleged attempts to stoke internal conflict. Transnistria endures daily power outages, worsening the humanitarian situation. Reuters

Poland warns against restarting Russia gas supplies. Polish President Andrzej Duda, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, called for the permanent dismantling of Russia’s Nord Stream pipelines to prevent Western Europe from resuming Russian gas supplies, even after a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine. Duda stressed the pipelines threaten Central Europe economically, militarily, and in energy security. He urged Europe to maintain sanctions and resist pressure to renew business with Russia. On peace talks, Duda emphasized Ukraine's involvement, rejecting any agreement that allows Russia to retain occupied territories. He warned against repeating historical mistakes like Yalta and highlighted U.S. leadership, particularly Donald Trump’s, as vital to resolving the war. BBC

THE MIDDLE EAST

U.S. shared secret intelligence on IS threats with Syria’s new regime. U.S. officials, alarmed by the potential resurgence of the Islamic State (ISIS) and determined to stop the group in its tracks, have begun limited intelligence sharing with Syria's new government, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group previously designated as a terrorist organization. This collaboration aims to counter ISIS operations, which remain a threat despite being significantly weakened. U.S. intelligence, for example, recently helped foil an ISIS plot to attack a Shiite shrine near Damascus. Officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, have stressed that the intelligence sharing, fueled by mutual interest in hindering an ISIS revival, does not indicate a full acceptance of HTS, which is still a designated terrorist organization. One former U.S. official said intelligence sharing is “the right, prudent and appropriate thing to do.” HTS, which overthrew Bashar al-Assad's regime in December, has attempted to signal moderation by engaging with foreign leaders and pledging to protect religious minorities. However, concerns persist about its past ties to extremism and the inclusion of controversial figures in its government. The intelligence-sharing channel is separate from broader U.S. diplomatic efforts, which have included easing sanctions and lifting a bounty on HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa. While HTS and ISIS remain bitter enemies, questions remain about the former’s capacity to suppress extremism and ISIS’s long-term intentions. Meanwhile, the U.S. military continues to target militant positions in Syria, though the future of its presence in the region remains uncertain under President Trump's second term. Washington Post

Turkey’s Erdogan seeking Trump’s backing to mold his ideal Middle East. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeks to capitalize on recent geopolitical shifts, including the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and a Gaza ceasefire, to expand his country’s economic and political influence in the region. Erdogan is positioning Turkey to play a central role in Syria’s reconstruction, which includes rebuilding cities, infrastructure, and oil fields, estimated to cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Turkish companies are already assessing projects in Syria, aiming to secure a large share of reconstruction contracts. However, Ankara’s ambitions are complicated by its opposition to U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, which Turkey views as linked to the PKK, a group it has long fought. Despite ongoing tensions, Erdogan is leveraging Turkey’s role as a key NATO power and its capacity to stabilize the region to gain support from the U.S. and other allies. Ankara has also sought Gulf countries' financial backing for reconstruction efforts and aims to use Syria as a trade conduit to the Gulf, reducing reliance on more costly routes. Erdogan’s broader strategy includes improving relations with Israel, conditional on developments in Gaza. For Erdogan, Syria’s reconstruction offers not only economic opportunities but also a chance to cement his political legacy by revitalizing the economy, mending ties with the Kurdish minority, and expanding Turkey’s regional influence. However, success hinges on navigating complex relationships with the U.S., Kurdish forces, and other regional actors. Bloomberg

Trump wants to ‘clean out’ Gaza, and his plan to send refugees to Egypt and Jordan meets stiff resistance. U.S. President Donald Trump has proposed the idea of relocating Palestinians from Gaza to neighboring countries like Jordan and Egypt, either temporarily or permanently, to address the ongoing humanitarian crisis caused by the war between Israel and Hamas. This proposal has been widely rejected by Arab countries, including Amman and Cairo, which fear the move could destabilize their own nations and alter regional demographics. Both countries have emphasized that Palestinians should remain in Gaza, despite the extensive destruction and displacement caused by the conflict. Trump has referred to the decimated enclave as “a demolition site,” underscoring the fact that “people are dying there,” and advocating for the construction of housing in “a different location where they can maybe live in peace for a change.” Trump’s comments reflect a shift in U.S. policy, with his administration also lifting sanctions on Israeli entities and releasing weapons withheld by the Biden administration. Israel and its far-right leaders have shown some support for the idea of relocating Gazans, but Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have condemned the proposal as an infringement on Palestinian rights. U.S. Rep. Gregory Meeks said the concept was as “inhumane as it is impractical.” Jordan, deeply concerned about absorbing more refugees, has reaffirmed its opposition to any plan that could turn the country into an alternative homeland for Palestinians. Wall Street Journal Associated Press BBC Reuters 

Gazans begin journey north as Israel opens crossing, Qatar announces hostage breakthrough. Tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians began returning to northern Gaza on Monday after Israel reopened crossings as part of a ceasefire agreement mediated by Qatar and Egypt. This move came in the wake of Hamas's promise to release three Israeli hostages, including a female civilian, Arbel Yehud. The crossings were initially delayed when the Jewish state accused Hamas of breaching the agreement by failing to release 29-year-old Yehud. The ceasefire, which paused 15 months of devastating conflict, has allowed displaced families to return to areas heavily damaged by relentless Israeli offensives. Around 650,000 Palestinians are expected to move back to northern Gaza. The return marks a significant moment for many, as displaced families expressed relief and hope for calm after extended violence. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the release of the hostages and reiterated that any violation of the agreement would not be tolerated. The Israeli military issued warnings to Palestinians about transporting militants or weapons during the crossings, stressing that such actions would breach the ceasefire. The situation remains delicate, with the tenuous truce holding amid ongoing tensions. Reuters Associated Press Corriere della Sera BBC Times of Israel  

UN agency UNRWA says Israel orders it to stop East Jerusalem operations this week.  The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) has announced that Israel has ordered it to cease operations and vacate its premises in East Jerusalem by Thursday. This directive follows Israeli legislation passed in October 2024 that bans UNRWA from operating within the country, with limited exceptions. UNRWA contends that this order violates Israel's obligations as a UN member state, emphasizing that UN premises are inviolable under the UN Charter. The agency's international staff in the West Bank and East Jerusalem hold visas valid only until January 29, raising concerns about the continuity of essential services such as education and healthcare for Palestinians in these areas. Israeli lawmakers have cited alleged involvement of some UNRWA staff in attacks on southern Israel and purported ties with Hamas as reasons for the ban. This development has heightened concerns among the UN and Western allies regarding the deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Gaza. Reuters 

Devastating toll for Gaza’s children: Over 13,000 killed and an estimated 25,000 injured, UN says. The United Nations reports that over 13,000 children have been killed and approximately 25,000 injured during the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Additionally, nearly 19,000 children were hospitalized for acute malnutrition in the four months leading up to December 2024. The UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs indicates that children constitute a significant portion of the 40,717 identified Palestinian fatalities. The prolonged 15-month war has also left thousands of children orphaned or separated from their families. UNICEF and other agencies are calling for immediate humanitarian assistance to address the critical needs of Gaza's children, including medical care and nutritional support. The international community is urged to recognize and respond to this escalating humanitarian crisis.  Associated Press 

22 people in south Lebanon killed by Israeli forces. Israeli forces killed 22 people and injured 124 on Sunday in southern Lebanon, as residents attempted to return to their villages despite Israeli military orders. The violence occurred after Israel extended its troop presence beyond the Sunday deadline outlined in a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, citing Lebanon's failure to disarm Hezbollah in the region. The Lebanese government and military accused Israel of delaying its withdrawal, while Hezbollah insisted that the Lebanese state ensure the enforcement of the ceasefire. Israel claimed its troops fired warning shots and detained individuals it deemed threats, while Hezbollah accused Israel of violating the ceasefire with U.S. support. The United Nations stated that conditions for the safe return of displaced residents were not yet met, and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun urged citizens to trust the army and exercise restraint. The conflict is linked to the broader Hezbollah-Israel confrontation and the recent Gaza war, during which Hezbollah supported Hamas. Israel justified its actions in Lebanon as efforts to dismantle Hezbollah's infrastructure and secure its borders, though it has not specified how long its forces will remain in southern Lebanon. Tensions remain high as both sides await full implementation of the ceasefire agreement. Reuters CNN BBC Associated Press The Guardian  

ASIA & OCEANIA

China unveils advanced Type 054B Frigate to strengthen naval power and strategic reach.  China has commissioned its first Type 054B stealth frigate, the Luohe, marking a significant upgrade in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy’s capabilities. This new-generation warship features advanced anti-submarine and air defense systems, enhanced stealth technology, and greater operational versatility. It is designed to play a crucial role in escorting carrier strike groups and defending high-value naval assets like aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships. Observers note the Type 054B's cost-effectiveness and versatility, making it suitable for both nearshore and extended blue-water operations. Analysts also anticipate large-scale production, with the frigate likely to become a cornerstone of China’s naval expansion. The Luohe reflects Beijing’s broader strategy of modernizing its navy to challenge the U.S. and its allies, particularly in areas like the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. With approximately 234 warships, including 50 frigates, China operates the world’s largest navy, and the Type 054B is expected to bolster the Navy’s ability to project power and protect territorial waters while maintaining a significant advantage over regional neighbors in naval technology and capabilities. South China Morning Post CNN The Defense Post

China develops first deep-sea radar capable of detecting high-flying aircraft. A Chinese research team has developed a groundbreaking deep-sea radar system capable of detecting and tracking high-altitude aircraft from the seabed at depths of 1,000 meters. This technological breakthrough marks a significant advancement in anti-submarine and maritime warfare, potentially allowing submarines to detect and target enemy aircraft before they are discovered. The system, created by researchers Zhang Bo and Peng Zhaohui from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, overcomes long-standing challenges in detecting sound waves from high-altitude aircraft that penetrate the sea's surface and are distorted by varying oceanic conditions. In secret tests conducted in 2022, the system accurately tracked an aircraft within seconds at a range of 17 kilometers, with a margin of error under 1 kilometer. While these results demonstrate potential, the system still has limitations, including a short detection range and blind spots when aircraft fly directly overhead. Researchers are working to improve these shortcomings. The technology complements China's extensive military intelligence network, which includes satellite systems, warships, and shore-based radars capable of tracking aircraft globally. The new undersea detection system is designed to integrate with these assets, enhancing overall intelligence and survivability. South China Morning Post 

South Korea’s Yoon indicted for insurrection over botched martial law bid. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was indicted on Sunday on charges of leading an insurrection in the wake of his controversial imposition of martial law last month. Yoon, who is currently detained and facing an impeachment trial, is accused of conspiring with former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun and others to declare an unconstitutional state of emergency on December 3, deploying military forces to parliament, and planning the arrest of political opponents and election officials. This makes Yoon the first sitting president in Seoul’s history to be indicted while in detention. Prosecutors, citing concerns about potential evidence tampering, filed the indictment just before Yoon’s detention period was set to expire. Despite two court rejections to extend his detention, prosecutors proceeded based on evidence, without the opportunity to question Yoon directly. Other charges, such as abuse of power, were dropped due to presidential immunity laws, leaving insurrection the sole charge. Yoon's defense argued during impeachment hearings that the martial law declaration was a strategic warning to opposition parties, not an attempt to seize power. The indictment has sparked significant political tensions, with the presidential office and ruling People Power Party condemning the move as unjust, while the opposition Democratic Party has called for Yoon's full cooperation with the trial. Yonhap News Agency New York Times Reuters Associated Press BBC Taipei Times  

North Korea tests cruise missile system, vows 'toughest counteraction.' North Korea conducted a cruise missile test on Saturday and promised a strong response to U.S.-South Korean military exercises, which it views as a provocation. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un observed the test, which reportedly involved nuclear-capable missiles. The official KCNA said that the sea-to-surface strategic cruise guided weapons struck their targets and traveled 1,500-kilometers. While the accuracy of these claims cannot be independently verified, Kim asserted that North Korea's military capabilities are being further “perfected” to defend its sovereignty and stability. The test comes as tensions run high over expanded Washington-Seoul military drills, which Pyongyang blasts as invasion rehearsals. In response, the North Korean Foreign Ministry warned of “the toughest counteraction” against the White House, echoing Kim’s pledge to pursue an aggressive anti-U.S. policy. Amid this backdrop, President Donald Trump signaled a potential revival of diplomacy with Kim Jong Un. However, experts believe Kim now holds stronger bargaining power due to the regime’s expanded nuclear arsenal and closer military ties with Russia. In South Korea, concerns are growing that Trump might scale back military drills and abandon the goal of full denuclearization in favor of focusing only on North Korea’s long-range missile program, potentially leaving the South vulnerable to nuclear threats. Yonhap News Agency Associated Press Reuters  

India, a huge source of illegal migration to the U.S., will try to endure Trump’s crackdown. India, particularly the state of Gujarat, has become a significant source of both legal and illegal migration to the United States, with over 700,000 undocumented Indians living there as of 2022. Migration, deeply ingrained in Gujarati culture, is often seen as a status symbol and a pathway to a better quality of life, and many families invest their life savings or take on heavy debt to send relatives to the U.S. The costs and risks are high, however, with stories of long detentions, perilous journeys, and financial sacrifices. The Trump administration's crackdown on illegal immigration has caused widespread anxiety among Indian migrants and their families. While some Indians enter the U.S. legally and overstay visas, others attempt dangerous routes through third countries. The Indian government has been cooperating with American authorities to curb illegal migration, partly to protect legal pathways like H-1B visas for skilled workers, which are vital to New Delhi’s economic ties with the U.S. Many in Washington oppose these policies on the grounds that the jobs filled by those visa holders should go to Americans instead. Despite India's growing economy, inequality and limited opportunities push many to seek better lives abroad. Families often hope for leniency in immigration policies, especially for divided families or students pursuing education in the U.S. New York Times

Rubio says U.S. may put bounty on Taliban leaders Over Hostages. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has suggested that Washington may place a significant bounty on top Taliban leaders following reports that the group may be holding more American hostages than previously known. This comes shortly after the release of two Americans, Ryan Corbett and William McKenty, in exchange for Khan Mohammed, a Taliban member who was serving two life sentences in the U.S. on drug and terrorism charges. The deal, brokered under the Biden administration, highlights ongoing tensions with the Taliban, which the U.S. does not recognize as Afghanistan's legitimate government. Rubio's comments align with a broader U.S. demand for the release of all American hostages, especially given the billions in aid provided to Afghanistan in recent years. Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court (ICC) is pursuing arrest warrants for Taliban leaders Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada and Abdul Hakim Haqqani for alleged crimes against humanity, specifically for the persecution of Afghan women and girls. The Taliban has dismissed these accusations as baseless, though legal experts note the ICC actions could have significant consequences for the group's leadership. RFE/RL

Iranian FM meets Taliban officials in the first visit to Kabul in 8 years. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Aragchi, met with top Taliban officials in Kabul on Sunday, marking the first visit by an Iranian foreign minister to Afghanistan since 2017.  Their discussions addressed issues including border tensions, Afghan refugees in Iran, and water rights under the Helmand River treaty. Aragchi stressed his nation’s commitment to facilitating the return of 3.5 million Afghan refugees while respecting Kabul’s domestic affairs. He also urged full implementation of the water-sharing treaty. In response, Acting Afghan Prime Minister Hassan Akhund requested respectful treatment of Afghan refugees in Iran and highlighted the challenges of managing mass repatriation, citing incidents like the executions of Afghans in Iran as harmful to public sentiment. While Iran does not officially recognize the Taliban government, it maintains political and economic ties with Kabul and allows the Taliban to manage Afghanistan's embassy in Tehran. Aragchi expressed hopes for stronger economic cooperation despite the complex dynamics between the two nations. Associated Press 

China to take private sector AI robots on 2028 Chang’e-8 mission. A Chinese private aerospace company, STAR.VISION, is collaborating internationally to deploy two AI-controlled lunar exploration robots on China's Chang’e-8 mission in 2028. This marks the first time a Chinese private company has been involved in a significant space exploration project, which are traditionally dominated by state-owned entities. The robots, developed with Zhejiang University in China and Middle East Technical University in Turkey, will autonomously cooperate through data sharing and task delegation, overcoming the limitations of preprogrammed rovers. AI will play a critical role in enabling the rovers to navigate and operate independently in the communication-challenged lunar south pole, where delays of several minutes occur due to relay satellites. STAR.VISION is focusing on developing an advanced AI processor, alongside navigation and mechanical components, to address these challenges. The rovers must also endure extreme conditions, such as the moon's low gravity and harsh temperatures. The Chang’e-8 mission will also test infrastructure for a future lunar base, including a command and communication hub. This effort is part of China's broader plan to land astronauts on the moon by 2030 and establish a lunar research station by 2035. South China Morning Post 

AFRICA

Rwanda-backed M23 rebels in Congo claim to have seized Goma. M23 insurgents backed by Rwanda claimed to have captured the city of Goma in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on Monday, marking a significant escalation in the region's ongoing conflict. This development is a major blow to the Congolese government, as Goma is a strategic city and the capital of North Kivu province. The capture follows weeks of intense fighting and bloodshed, which has displaced hundreds of thousands of people, many of whom are now forced to live under rebel rule. Congo’s government has said that the militia’s advance was a “declaration of war,” while the rebels have demanded calm and ordered members of the Congo’s military to lay down their arms and gather at the central stadium. On Sunday, the U.N.’s special representative for Congo said that the airport was closed, and that she was “trapped” in the city. The M23 group, which briefly occupied Goma in 2012 before being defeated, has strengthened, reportedly aiming to exploit the region's valuable mineral resources. The humanitarian crisis in Goma has worsened, with over 400,000 people displaced this year alone. Panic is spreading among the city’s 2 million residents, hospitals are overwhelmed with patients suffering from severe injuries caused by heavy artillery, and makeshift shelters and schools are struggling to accommodate the influx of refugees. The conflict, part of a decades-long struggle in Congo’s east, has reignited international tensions. The U.N. has accused Rwanda of supporting M23, a claim Rwanda adamantly denies, and emergency discussions at the U.N. Security Council condemned the violence but stopped short of imposing sanctions. As Goma falls under rebel control, civilians face hunger, injuries, and uncertainty, with many left hiding in fear as humanitarian conditions deteriorate further. New York Times Reuters Associated Press CNN Reuters Bloomberg The Guardian France 24

Congo severs diplomatic ties with Rwanda over M23 backing, violence. Just before militants captured the Congolese city of Goma, the Democratic Republic of the Congo severed diplomatic ties with Rwanda, accusing it of backing the M23 rebel group. The M23, predominantly made up of ethnic Tutsis who split from the Congolese army over a decade ago, has shifted its motives from seeking political integration to aiming for territorial control. This marks a significant escalation in the ongoing crisis, which has already created one of the world's largest humanitarian emergencies. While Rwanda denies supporting the M23, it has admitted to deploying troops in eastern Congo for its security. U.N. experts estimate that up to 4,000 Rwandan forces are in the area, further straining relations. Congo's decision to expel Rwandan diplomats follows growing tensions and fears of escalating violence. Analysts warn that renewed fighting could lead to catastrophic casualties and deepen the humanitarian crisis. Associated Press France 24 Al Jazeera The Independent 

13 foreign peacekeepers killed by rebels in Congo. According to the U.N. and army officials, 13 peacekeepers in the Congo were killed amid fighting with M23 insurgents over the last few days. Nine South African troops were killed while pushing back a rebel offensive on the strategic city of Goma, while the U.N. reported the deaths of three Malawian soldiers. Uruguay's army also said one of its soldiers had been killed and four injured, with the fourth being evacuated to Uganda for treatment. Associated Press BBC CNN 

WHO chief demands end to attacks on hospitals after 70 are killed in Sudan’s Darfur. An attack on the Saudi Teaching Maternal Hospital in Sudan’s El Fasher left 70 people dead and 19 injured, marking a grim escalation in the nation’s ongoing civil war. The assault, reportedly carried out by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), comes as the group suffers battlefield losses to the Sudanese military, including losing control of a key oil refinery near Khartoum. The hospital, the only functional facility in the besieged city, was filled with patients at the time of the attack. According to Darfur Governor Mini Minnawi, an RSF drone hit the emergency department of the hospital, killing women and children. The World Health Organization condemned the assault on Sunday, urging an end to attacks on healthcare and emphasizing the need for peace. The RSF, however, blamed the Sudanese military for the incident without providing evidence. El Fasher, which has been under an RSF siege since May 2024, is home to over one million people, many of whom are displaced by the war. Associated Press NBC Reuters 

Sudan’s army chief pledges to defeat paramilitary forces on visit to Khartoum headquarters. Sudanese army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan on Sunday visited the military's General Command in central Khartoum for the first time since government forces reportedly broke a months-long siege by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Burhan, who was accompanied by senior leaders, praised the soldiers' resilience and vowed to eliminate the RSF. On Friday, the army claimed to have regained control over parts of Khartoum, indicating a potential turning point in the conflict, though the RSF dismissed these claims as propaganda. The war, which broke out in April 2023, has killed tens of thousands, displaced millions, and created a severe humanitarian crisis. Both sides accuse each other of receiving foreign backing and worsening the situation. Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

“Sputnik” moment for Chinese AI causes rout in U.S. tech stocks. Chinese startup DeepSeek has introduced a free AI assistant that utilizes lower cost chips and requires less data, challenging the prevailing belief that artificial intelligence development necessitates high-end hardware and substantial resources. This development has led to a significant downturn in global technology markets, with major indices such as Nasdaq futures dropping over 3% and S&P 500 futures nearly 2%. Prominent tech companies, including Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet, have experienced substantial declines in their stock values. Analysts note that while DeepSeek's innovation could enhance productivity and reduce costs for AI end-users, it poses short-term challenges for established chipmakers and intensifies the competitive landscape between the U.S. and China in the AI sector.  Reuters Wall Street Journal

AI leaders clash over safety and Stargate project. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, AI leaders debated the risks of rapidly advancing technology amid the announcement of “Stargate,” a potentially $500 billion AI infrastructure project spearheaded by OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle. Figures like Demis Hassabis, Dario Amodei, and Yoshua Bengio warned about threats from uncontrolled AI, including misuse by authoritarian governments. Yann LeCun of Meta criticized calls to restrict open-source models, arguing it could consolidate power among a few players. Stargate, unveiled after a White House meeting hosted by Donald Trump, aims to enhance U.S. AI leadership. However, funding remains uncertain, and Microsoft’s growing independence from OpenAI adds tension. Financial Times

The new Chinese AI model receiving international praise. Chinese AI company DeepSeek has garnered global attention for its advanced AI models, which rival leading American systems despite using less-advanced chips. Its latest models, R1 and V3, rank in the global top 10 for chatbot performance, showcasing significant progress despite U.S. export restrictions on advanced technology. Benchmark tests revealed that its DeepSeek V3 LLM could outperform models developed with more resources. DeepSeek, led by hedge-fund manager Liang Wenfeng, evolved from High-Flyer’s AI research unit and is known for innovative cost-saving techniques, including skipping traditional training steps. While its models fall behind OpenAI and Google in some areas, they are competitive in performance and far more affordable. However, concerns have been raised about censorship in responses aligned with Chinese propaganda, though the open-source nature of its models allows modifications. The company uses a fraction of the resources required by Western competitors, employing innovative approaches like reinforcement learning over supervised fine-tuning. DeepSeek’s progress highlights how resource constraints can inspire creativity, challenging the effectiveness of U.S. tech restrictions while signaling China's growing capabilities in AI development. Wall Street Journal WIRED Financial Times South China Morning Post  

Cyber diplomacy funding paused as Washington implements freeze on foreign aid. The U.S. State Department's freeze on nearly all foreign aid, following President Donald Trump’s recent executive order, has halted the operations of the Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy, according to sources. This 90-day pause affects programs aimed at promoting U.S. values and addressing international cyber threats. The bureau, established in 2022, has significantly expanded its foreign assistance funding, growing from $17 million to over $90 million. Its initiatives have included cyber incident response in Costa Rica, infrastructure projects in Tuvalu, and training workshops in Vietnam targeting North Korean cyber activities. Former Cyber Ambassador Nate Fick stressed the importance of these programs for building partnerships and combating cyber threats globally. The freeze reflects Trump’s skepticism of foreign aid, which he has criticized as wasteful. The bureau’s leadership is currently in transition, with Jennifer Bachus serving as acting chief after Fick’s departure. The State Department has not commented on the freeze or its implications for ongoing cyber diplomacy efforts. The Record

Global economic trends: U.S. outpaces sluggish growth in Europe and mixed performances worldwide. The U.S. economy maintained steady growth in late 2024, driven by robust consumer spending and outperforming many advanced economies. Economists predict a 2.7% annualized GDP growth for the fourth quarter, following two consecutive quarters of around 3% growth. This momentum is supported by a strong labor market and high consumer spending, despite persistent inflation. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady, with only minimal cuts anticipated for 2025. In contrast, Europe's major economies, including France and Germany, experienced stagnation or contraction during the same period, reflecting a broader trend of economic sluggishness in the eurozone. Meanwhile, Canada and various global economies, such as Brazil and Sweden, are adjusting interest rates to manage inflation and economic uncertainties. In Asia, much of the focus is on Japan, where the central bank raised rates to a 17-year high, and China, which is grappling with declining industrial profits. Other countries in the region, including Australia, New Zealand, and the Philippines, are releasing key economic indicators, highlighting a mixed regional economic performance. In Latin America, Brazil continues to battle rising inflation with aggressive interest rate hikes, while Mexico faces slowing growth. Chile and Colombia are expected to adjust policies to address weakening economies and inflationary pressures. Globally, economic activity is being shaped by geopolitical uncertainties, inflation concerns, and monetary policy adjustments, with varied impacts across regions as nations grapple with their unique challenges. Bloomberg

Nearly 200 million affected in 2024 Change Healthcare cyberattack. Last year’s ransomware attack on Change Healthcare, the healthcare technology company owned by UnitedHealth, has affected nearly 200 million individuals, a significant increase from the initially reported 100 million victims. The breach compromised extensive personal and health-related data, including health insurance details, medical records, Social Security numbers, financial information, and more. While UnitedHealth claims no evidence has been found of full medical histories or electronic medical records being leaked, the stolen data included sensitive information like test results, images, and billing details. UnitedHealth paid a $22 million ransom, but internal disputes among the hackers resulted in the data being posted on a different leak site. Since then, the company has been reviewing the stolen documents to identify and notify affected individuals. About 90% of the data review has been completed, and notification efforts are ongoing. The breach, which impacted a vast network of healthcare providers and facilities, prompted the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to require Change Healthcare to notify all victims. The scale of the attack highlights the vulnerability of healthcare systems to cyberattacks and underscores the need for robust data security measures. The Record Wall Street Journal Bleeping Computer Reuters 

Hackers steal at least $69 million crypto platform Phemex. Phemex, a cryptocurrency platform based in Singapore, temporarily paused some operations after a suspected cyberattack resulted in the theft of over $69 million in digital assets, including Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Binance Coin. The attack, described as highly sophisticated, disrupted withdrawals, which are now being manually reviewed as the platform works to restore functionality. Phemex has promised compensation for affected users and assured that trading services remain operational. The attack follows a pattern of recent cryptocurrency thefts, including hacks on Singapore-based platforms Penpie and BingX, which lost $30 million and $44 million, respectively. Experts suspect North Korean hackers, known for orchestrating major crypto thefts, may be behind the Phemex incident. North Korean-linked groups reportedly stole $1.34 billion in cryptocurrency in 2024 alone, with a six-year total exceeding $3 billion. Governments from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea have warned of Pyongyang’s continued targeting of cryptocurrency platforms to fund its weapons programs. Efforts are underway to recover stolen funds and prevent further thefts in the increasingly vulnerable cryptocurrency sector. The Record 

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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