Report for Monday, January 22, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

U.S. Navy SEALs lost at sea off Somalia declared dead.

Israeli plan to destroy Hamas not working, peace talks needed, EU’s Borrel says; EU ministers meet on next steps.

 U.S. Troops in Iraq Injured by Attack from Iran-Backed Militias

Ukraine targets Russia's Novatek Baltic Sea fuel export terminal in long-range drone strike.

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israeli plan to destroy Hamas not working, peace talks needed, EU’s Borrel says; EU ministers meet on next steps. European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said today that Israel’s plan to destroy Hamas is not working but is instead “seeding the hate for generations” with its strikes in Gaza. He said the EU must pursue efforts to implement a two-state solution despite Israeli opposition. Borrell spoke at the monthly meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels, where they were joined by their counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan as well as Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz and Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki were to make separate appearances at the meeting. Katz told reporters he was there to discuss the hostage issue and to reaffirm Israel’s intention to eliminate Hamas. Before the meeting, the EU’s diplomatic service sent a discussion paper to the EU’s 27 member countries suggesting a roadmap to peace in the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The plan calls for a “preparatory peace conference” to be organized by the EU, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the League of Arab States, with the U.S. and the U.N. also invited. The proposal calls for the conference to take place even if the Israelis and Palestinians decline to take part. The EU paper also suggests conference participants should specify consequences for both sides depending on whether they accept or reject any plan that is approved, but it did not spell out what those consequences might be.  Reuters France24 Bloomberg Financial Times

Netanyahu refuses Hamas demands for Israeli hostage deal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday rejected conditions set by Hamas to secure the release of hostages. "In exchange for the release of our hostages, Hamas demands the end of the war, the withdrawal of our forces from Gaza, the release of all the murderers and rapists," Netanyahu said in a statement. "And leaving Hamas intact." Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters that Israel’s refusal "means there is no chance for the return of the (Israeli) captives." Reuters Al Jazeera Bloomberg 

Hamas says October 7 attack was a ‘necessary step,’ admits to ‘some faults’.  Hamas published a 16-page report titled “Our Narrative” yesterday saying the surprise attack on Israel October 7 was a “necessary step” and that its fighters targeted only Israeli soldiers and people carrying weapons, but the report also conceded that “maybe there were faults” in the operation. According to Al Jazeera and official Israeli statistics, ​​at least 1,139 people, mostly civilians, were killed in the attack. Israeli authorities have accused Hamas fighters of committing war crimes during the attack, including torture, rape and mutilation, claims that Hamas rejects.  Al Jazeera 

Israeli tanks cut off two hospitals in new storming of Gaza's Khan Younis.  Israel attacked Khan Younis by land, air and sea early today in what residents said was the most intense fighting there since the war in Gaza began, cutting access at two hospitals. Israel says the city is the main headquarters for Hamas militants. Most of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents are now confined to two towns just north and just south of Khan Younis. At the Al Nasser Hospital, the only major medical facility still accessible in the city, witnesses said the trauma ward was overwhelmed with wounded. Health officials said at least 20 dead bodies had arrived there overnight and they expected many more to arrive later. Reuters

Israeli army shows journalists Gaza tunnel where hostages were kept.  Israeli soldiers discovered a kilometer-long, booby-trapped tunnel  where 20 hostages had been held in  a holding area, five narrow rooms with metal bars, toilet, mattresses, and drawings by a child freed last November truce.Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said the tunnel entrance was in the house of a Hamas member in Khan Younis.  "The soldiers entered the tunnel where they encountered terrorists, engaging in a battle that ended with the elimination of the terrorists," Hagari said. "According to the testimonies we have, about 20 hostages were held in this tunnel at different times under harsh conditions without daylight, in dense air with little oxygen, and terrible humidity that makes breathing difficult.” He added that some hostages kept there were freed but others remain captive somewhere in Gaza.  Reuters New York Times

Discord over two-state solution opens rift between the US and Israel. Following a telephone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday, President Biden said that despite Netanyahu’s resistance, eventually he might support some form of Palestinian statehood, such as one without armed forces. But in a statement released yesterday, Netanyahu said Israel must continue to maintain security control over the West Bank and Gaza. In an interview with CNN, Biden presidential campaign co-chairman Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) said it is time for the Israeli public to accept that the creation of a Palestinian state is “the best path forward.” France 24 Wall Street Journal Bloomberg

UAE urges US to support immediate ceasefire in Gaza. “We can’t wait another 100 days,” Lana Nusseibeh,  UAE Ambassador to the United Nations, said in an online interview.  “The risks are high, the war in Gaza is very clearly an open wound and it’s destabilizing the region.”  As a reliable ally in the Arab world, the UAE wields significant influence on U.S. decision-makers.  South China Morning Post

EU targets six people under new Hamas sanctions scheme.  The European Union (EU) on Friday imposed asset freezes and travel bans on six people it said are Hamas operatives and financiers of the organization. The EU Council said the list could be widened to target those who support Hamas or Islamic Jihad.  Reuters

WSJ analysis- Hamas can sustain war for months. The Wall Street Journal reports that a new U.S. intelligence assessment says that Israeli forces are far from achieving their goal of destroying Hamas.  According to the report, U.S. intelligence believes Israeli forces have killed 20% to 30% of Hamas’s fighters but that Hamas retains enough arms to keep fighting for months. The militant group has survived by breaking into smaller groups that can melt into the besieged population. Meanwhile, pressure from the U.S. and its allies have forced Israel to withdraw thousands of soldiers from Gaza and to move more surgically. Wall Street Journal 

U.S. Troops in Iraq Injured by Attack from Iran-Backed Militias.  At least two U.S. service members and an Iraqi soldier stationed at Al Asad air base in western Iraq were injured on Saturday by rockets and missiles fired by Iran-backed militias.   The New York Times reported that the attack, at 6:30 p.m. Saturday local time, involved at least 10 rockets and seven short-range ballistic missiles,  with two penetrating the base’s air defense systems. It was reported to be the most serious of roughly 140 such rocket and missile strikes against U.S. troops based in Iraq and Syria since the Gaza war started. New York Times Washington Post Reuters  

Israeli strike on Damascus kills Iran Revolutionary Guard; more strikes hit Hezbollah in Lebanon. In a significant escalation of regional hostilities, an Israeli missile strike on a house in Damascus killed five Revolutionary Guards.  Al Jazeera, quoting a source, reported that the target was an IRGC intelligence unit.  The news outlet said that a senior IRGC intelligence official in Syria and his assistants were in the building. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported that Iran’s Nour News, which may have close ties to the Iran’s intelligence services, identified two of those killed as General Sadegh Omidzadeh, the intelligence deputy of the IRGC's expeditionary Quds Force in Syria, and his deputy, Hajj Gholam.Sky News Arabic channel reported that one of those killed in the strike was Akram al-Ajuri, a senior member of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad Organization. The Associated Press reported that on Saturday, an Israeli drone strike on a car near the Lebanese city of Tyre killed four people, including Ali Hudruj, a local Hezbollah commander. And on Sunday, the AP reported, quoting Lebanese news outlets, an Israeli airstrike hit two vehicles in south Lebanon, killing a Hezbollah member and a woman and wounding several other people. Reuters  VOA  France 24  Al Jazeera  RFE/RL Associated Press Financial Times Washington Post

ANALYSIS- War Has Already Hurt the Economies of Israel’s Nearest Neighbors.  ​​The Israel-Hamas war and attacks by Iranian-backed Houthis in the Red Sea are having significant impacts on Israel’s neighbors.  The regional unrest has disrupted trade, tourism, and foreign investment, causing an estimated $10.3 billion in costs for Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, or 2.3% of their combined GDP. Human development in these nations may regress by two to three years from factors like refugee flows and rising public debt.  New York Times

ANALYSIS- A Guide to the Middle East’s Growing Conflicts, in Six Maps

THE RED SEA

Iranian and Hezbollah commanders reportedly help direct Houthi attacks in Yemen.  Commanders from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Lebanon's Hezbollah group are on the ground in Yemen helping to oversee Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping,  Reuters reported, quoting four regional and two Iranian sources. The IRGC is reportedly training Houtings on advanced weapons and technology and Iranian commanders have set up a command center in Yemen’s capital of Sanaa to help direct the attacks on ships. In his weekly news conferences, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani denied Tehran is involved in the attacks in the Red Sea. Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam also denied any Iranian or Hezbollah involvement. Abdulghani Al-Iryani, a senior researcher at the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies, an independent think-tank, was quoted as saying: "It is clearly the case that the Iranians are helping identify the target and the destination. There is no local Houthi capacity to do that."  Reuters

U.S. conducts another strike on Houthi missiles. U.S. fighter jets, operating from the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, struck Iranian-backed Houthi rebel sites in Yemen for the sixth time on Friday. Central Command said the strikes hit three Houthi anti-ship missiles set to fire into the Red Sea. Houthi-run media reported air raids in the western city of Hodieda. The U.S. has vowed to continue strikes against the Houthis, though they have not deterred the rebels from continuing attacks on ships in the Red Sea.  Associated Press

US Intel says Houthis seek more Iranian weapons to increase Red Sea attacks.  Recent intelligence gathered by the US and its Western allies suggests that Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen are seeking more weapons from Iran, raising concerns of continued attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and potential wider conflict in the Middle East. The intelligence indicates the Houthis' efforts to procure additional weapons for missile attacks on freighters and the possibility of attacks on Western forces in the region. This comes after President Joe Biden acknowledged that previous strikes against the group failed to stop their attacks on commercial shipping. Intercepting Iranian weapons shipments to Yemen is challenging, making it crucial for the U.S. to prevent future transfers as it continues strikes against the Houthis to protect Red Sea navigation.  Politico

Stopping Houthi Ship Attacks Will Take Time, Biden Adviser Says.  US Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer says that deterring Iranian-backed groups, such as Yemen's Houthi rebels, will require time and additional measures. He stated that the Biden administration is working to dismantle Houthi stockpiles to prevent further attacks but emphasized that deterrence is a gradual process. Recent Houthi missile and drone attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea have raised concerns of the conflict spreading and widening economic impacts. The US and UK are exploring ways to counter the Houthis without sparking a broader conflict, focusing on pre-emptive strikes and targeting Iranian resupply shipments.  Bloomberg

Red Sea attacks starting to impact German chemicals sector.  Germany's chemicals sector, Europe's largest, is starting to experience supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea. Container shippers have diverted vessels away from the Red Sea and Suez Canal following attacks by Yemen's Houthis, causing delays in crucial Asian imports. Companies in Germany, including Gechem and Evonik, are feeling the impact, resulting in production curbs. This disruption is affecting a sector that relies on Asia for around a third of its imports from outside Europe. The situation adds pressure to an industry already facing challenges such as high energy costs and weak demand.  Reuters

Oil supply tightens in Europe over Red Sea disruptions.  The global Brent crude futures market and some physical markets in Europe and Africa are facing tighter supply conditions due to concerns about shipping delays caused by vessels avoiding the Red Sea amid missile and drone attacks. The disruptions have combined with rising Chinese demand, increasing competition for crude supply not transiting the Suez Canal. The Brent market structure hit its most bullish point in two months, reflecting tighter supply. European refiners have been particularly affected, with less Middle Eastern crude heading to Europe, causing a drop in supply. These disruptions add pressure to an industry already facing various challenges.  Al Jazeera

UK upgrading warship missile defense system used in Red Sea.  Britain’s Ministry of Defense said on Sunday that it is spending 405 million pounds ($514 million) to upgrade the Sea Viper Air Defense System being used by the Royal Navy in the Red Sea to counter Houthi attacks.  The system will be upgraded with missiles that have a new warhead and software to counter ballistic missile threats.  The contracts for the upgrade were awarded to the British division of MBDA, a missile joint venture owned by Airbus, BAE Systems, and Leonardo.  Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine targets Russia's Novatek Baltic Sea fuel export terminal in long-range drone strike. The Security Service of Ukraine launched an attack on a Russia fuel terminal in the Baltic Sea according to Ukrainian officials.  The attack, reportedly the longest-range operation by Ukraine, resulted in a large fire at the facility.  Russian energy company Novatek said Sunday operations were suspended at its Baltic Sea fuel export terminal because of the fire. The Ust-Luga complex, located on the Gulf of Finland about 110 miles west of St. Petersburg produces oil products, including jet fuel and other products to be shipped to international locations. Novatek says the fire, which it blamed on ‘external action’ was brought under control. Ukrainian officials say the attack will cause economic damage to Russia and disrupt logistics operations supporting the Russian military.  Reuters Wall Street Journal Politico 

Russia takes village in Ukraine's Kharkiv region.  Russian forces seized the village of Krokhmalne in the Kharkiv region, Russian and Ukrainian officials confirmed.  But Ukrainian military spokesperson Volodymyr Fitio says that the capture of Krokhmalne, with just five houses and 45 people, was not a significant win for Russia. "Our main goal is to save the lives of our defenders and they were moved to pre-prepared positions where they are now holding defenses to prevent the enemy from advancing further," Fitio said. Reuters

Russia claims 27 killed by Ukrainian shelling in Donetsk.   Ukrainian forces shelled the Russian-controlled city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, Denis Pushilin, the Russian-appointed head of the Donetsk region, said Sunday, adding that 25 people were injured. (A New York Times report said at least 25 died and 20 were injured in the attack.) Alexei Kulemzin, the city's Russian-installed mayor, said Ukrainian forces bombarded a busy area of shops and a market. The Russian Foreign Ministry called the attack "a barbaric act of terrorism" by Ukraine that was carried out "with the use of weapons supplied by the West.” Ukraine's forces in the Tavria, or southern zone, said in a Facebook post that soldiers under its command were not responsible. "Donetsk is Ukraine!" it said. "Russia will have to answer for taking lives of Ukrainians."Reuters  CNN  Bloomberg New York Times Washington Post  AP

Ukraine downs all 8 attack drones in latest Russian attack.  Ukraine successfully shot down all eight Shahed-type attack drones launched by Russia overnight. Ukraine’s Air Force says the drones were launched from southern Russia and targeted multiple Ukrainian oblasts, including Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad. While three drones were downed above Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, debris from one caused a fire, but no casualties were reported. Ukraine's Southern Operational Command reported that two drones were downed above Kherson Oblast, another two above Mykolaiv Oblast, and one above Kirovohrad Oblast.  Kyiv Independent 

Zelensky expects more Western defense aid for Ukraine in next two months.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced that he expects several new Western defense packages for Ukraine to be signed in January and February. These defense agreements are anticipated to strengthen Ukraine's military capabilities in the face of Russia's ongoing aggression. While Western allies have provided significant military aid to Ukraine since the start of the conflict in 2014, there has been a growing need for continued support as the conflict drags on. The specific countries involved in these new agreements have not been disclosed, but the efforts aim to bolster Ukraine's air and ground defenses against Russian attacks.  Reuters Deutsche Welle 

Zelensky invites Trump to Kyiv.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has invited former U.S. President Donald Trump to visit Kyiv, but with the condition that Trump must be able to stop the war with Russia within 24 hours, as he previously claimed he could. Zelensky expressed his invitation in an interview with U.K. broadcaster Channel 4 News. While Ukraine seeks to strengthen ties with Trump and his allies ahead of the U.S. presidential election, Zelensky remains cautious, given Trump's past statements and actions related to Ukraine and Russia. Trump has suggested that he could have prevented the war and has said that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin “get along very well”.  Politico  Associated Press

Poland's Tusk visits Kyiv and vows to strengthen ties with Ukraine.  Poland's new Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited Ukraine aiming to improve relations and explore ways to provide more ammunition and military equipment as part of a new aid package. The two nations have faced recent friction, including blockades by Polish truckers at the border. However, they agreed to suspend the protests, which aimed to revoke Ukrainian truckers' permit-free access to the EU, until March 1. Tusk emphasized the importance of supporting Ukraine in its war effort and solving problems swiftly. Poland has emerged as a key ally for Ukraine, providing both support and shelter for over a million Ukrainian refugees.  Reuters Bloomberg Kyiv Independent 

ANALYSIS- Russian air defenses may not be prepared for Ukrainian attacks from the south.  Russian air defense systems in Leningrad Oblast may not be designed to defend against attacks from Ukraine's south, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Historically, Russia has positioned its air defense in the area to counter hypothetical NATO attacks. Recent strikes by Ukraine on Russian military assets in Leningrad Oblast could prompt Russia to reposition short-range air defense systems to defend against potential drone attacks. The report suggests that continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian assets in the region may increase pressure on Russia's air defenses overall.  A spokesman for Ukraine’s Air Force said over the weekend that Russia’s air defenses were “sufficient” along the front line with Ukraine, and in occupied Crimea, but noted that Russia’s air defense capability in other parts of Russia was “thinning out”.  ISW Kyiv Independent

ANALYSIS- Ukraine’s $30 Billion Problem: How to Keep Fighting Without Foreign Aid.  Ukraine is facing a financial shortfall of over $40 billion this year, and without aid from the US and the European Union, it could run out of money within months. Delays in aid packages from both parties have put Ukraine in a precarious position, forcing it to introduce measures such as a windfall tax on banks and domestic borrowing to cover budget spending. If aid doesn't arrive quickly, Ukraine may be forced to take additional steps to preserve cash, including delaying salaries or printing money, which could undermine economic stability and its ability to continue fighting against Russia.  Wall Street Journal

EU Tackles New $22 Billion Plan to Boost Ukraine Military Aid.  The European Union is working on a new plan to unlock tens of billions of dollars in military assistance for Ukraine. The plan aims to revamp a critical aid program that has been slowed down by internal divisions within the EU. Several European countries have already increased their bilateral military assistance to Ukraine, while the Biden administration in the US faces challenges in providing large-scale assistance. The new EU plan could see more than 20 billion euros of EU funds being used to support member states' military assistance to Ukraine over the next four years. It also aims to create a dedicated Ukraine military fund to streamline aid delivery.  Wall Street Journal 

U.K. reports Russian forces in Kherson hindered by poor training, coordination.  The U.K. Defense Ministry reports that poor training and coordination of Russian troops on the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast have likely limited their offensive capabilities, hindering their attempts to push Ukrainian forces out from the area. Russia considers forcing Ukraine to withdraw its forces from the east bank of the Dnipro a priority operational objective and is expected to persist with attacks in the Krynky area in the coming weeks.  Kyiv Independent

Slovakia's Fico vows to veto Ukraine's entry into NATO. Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico stated that Slovakia does not support Ukraine's entry into NATO and would veto such a move if necessary. Fico expressed this position during an interview with Slovakian public radio. He plans to meet with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and convey Slovakia's opposition to Ukraine's NATO accession, which he believes could lead to a third world war. Slovakia, a NATO member since 2004, has shifted its stance on supporting Ukraine since Fico's government took power in October, moving away from strong support for Kyiv.  Deutsche Welle Kyiv Independent

Defense firm counter German politician's claim on missile supplies to Ukraine.  Taurus Systems, a German defense contractor, stated that it could rapidly increase the production of Taurus cruise missiles, even if Germany were to send some to Ukraine. This statement contradicted earlier claims by an expert at Germany's Social Democratic Party, who suggested that Germany's defense industry would struggle to replenish stockpiles if it supplied the missiles to Ukraine. German lawmakers rejected a proposal to transfer long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, with concerns about escalating the conflict. However, Taurus missiles have been a topic of discussion since Ukraine requested them in May 2023, and Berlin recently announced a new military aid package for Ukraine.  Kyiv Independent 

Russian media says West stands to lose at least $288 bln in assets if Russian assets seized.  Russia's state news agency, RIA, reported that the West could stand to lose assets and investments worth at least $288 billion if it confiscated frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine's reconstruction, and Russia retaliated. Western sanctions blocked around $300 billion of sovereign Russian assets in the West after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The U.S. and UK have been working to confiscate Russian assets immobilized in Europe to support Ukraine's reconstruction efforts. Russia has warned of retaliatory measures if such actions are taken. According to RIA, EU nations held the largest share of these assets, with Cyprus, the Netherlands, and Germany leading in European investments in Russia.  Reuters

ANALYSIS- Ukraine war drives shift in Russian nuclear thinking.  A report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) suggests that the war in Ukraine has led Russia to rely more on non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs) as a means of deterring and defeating NATO in a potential future conflict. NSNWs include all nuclear weapons with a range of up to 5,500 km (3,400 miles), designed for use on the battlefield. The report raises concerns about Russia's perception of the West's resolve to respond to the use of NSNWs and suggests that Moscow might consider using them to escalate a conflict in a controlled fashion to prevent NATO engagement or coerce war termination on Russian terms. This debate on the use of NSNWs is reportedly ongoing in Russia as it assesses the effectiveness of its conventional military performance in Ukraine. Western analysts and policymakers are closely monitoring this development, emphasizing the challenge of preventing escalation and containment in such scenarios.  Reuters 

Interview with Ukraine’s military spy chief Kyrylo Budanovwho.  Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Unit (GUR), has been at the forefront of Ukraine's covert war against Russia, orchestrating attacks behind enemy lines. Despite surviving numerous assassination attempts, he remains dedicated to undermining Putin's war machine, including recent drone attacks on Russian territory. The 38 year old Budanov, a former special forces soldier, enjoys a cult status among Ukrainians but moves with an entourage of bodyguards and intelligence agents for security. He has survived 10 assassination attempts. He believes Ukraine will continue to hold off Putin's advances, despite acknowledging the need for additional mobilization to address manpower shortages. Budanov also vows to keep pressure on Putin’s military by continuing strikes deep within Russia, and says that Ukraine will continue to keep Russia at bay, having proven to the world that “the whole legend of [Russia’s] power is a soap bubble”.  Financial Times

OPINION — Pritzker: US economic aid 'essential' for Ukrainian victory, global security.  In a new op-ed, U.S. Special Representative for Economic Recovery in Ukraine, Penny Pritzker, emphasized the importance of providing economic support to Ukraine alongside security assistance. She argued that economic resilience is a crucial element of Ukraine's efforts to combat Russia and that U.S. economic support plays a vital role in funding Ukrainian defense and generating additional international support. Pritzker also highlighted the domestic benefits of supporting Ukraine, such as creating jobs and improving U.S. defense technology. She stressed that U.S. assistance comes with safeguards and accountability mechanisms to ensure proper allocation of taxpayer dollars and characterized it as an investment rather than charity. The U.S. Senate's disagreement on a supplemental funding bill for military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine has delayed further support to the country.  The Hill Kyiv Independent

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

The Americas

U.S. Navy SEALs lost at sea off Somalia declared dead.  The two SEAL commandos vanished into turbulent waters Jan. 11, during an operation to board a dhow smuggling weapons from Iran to Houthi militants. Other SEALs completed the operation and seized Iranian-made ballistic missile and cruise missiles components meant to resupply the Houthis.  CENTCOM officials say they reluctantly concluded the search for the missing men after U.S., Japanese, and Spanish aircraft and ships searched more than 21,000 square miles, aided by the U.S. Coast Guard, Scripps Institute of Oceanography in San Diego and Office of Naval Research.  Washington Post CENTCOM Reuters CNN Associated Press 

US judge condemns FBI while ordering release of man in 'Newburgh Four' case.  A US district judge has ordered the release of James Cromitie, who was convicted in 2010 of plotting to blow up New York City synagogues and a Jewish community center, as well as shoot down military planes. The judge's decision is based on the belief that Cromitie and three others, known as the "Newburgh Four," were manipulated by the FBI in a sting operation. The judge described the men as "hapless" petty criminals who were easily manipulated by overzealous FBI agents and an unsavory confidential informant. While the convictions were not reversed, the judge requested that Cromitie's sentence be reduced to time served plus 90 days. The case has been seen as a controversial example of domestic terrorism cases involving informants and undercover operations.  Reuters

Canada considering additional border measures for Mexican asylum seekers  Canada is considering measures to prevent Mexican nationals from flying into the country to request asylum, following concerns about the rising number of refugees arriving by plane. Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Immigration Minister Marc Miller are exploring options, including visa requirements, to ensure that people arriving from Mexico have valid reasons for their travel and to prevent abuse of the asylum system. Quebec's Premier Francois Legault had expressed concerns about the strain on the province's services due to the increasing number of Mexican nationals seeking asylum. The Canadian government is under pressure to address immigration policies amid housing and service-related challenges. Reuters

US-Mexico immigration coordination producing results, official says.  A State Department spokesperson says that a meeting on Friday between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Mexican Foreign Secretary Alicia Bárcena in Washington has made progress in cracking down on illegal immigration, including efforts against smuggling networks and transportation routes. The U.S. also committed to supporting Guatemala in various areas, including economic development and migration management. Meanwhile, discussions continue in the U.S. Congress regarding emergency funding for Ukraine, with some Republicans linking it to new security policies along the U.S.-Mexico border. President Joe Biden expressed hope for progress on the border issue in the Senate next week.  Reuters

Mexican president calls on civilians not to support drug cartels even if they pressure them. Mexico's President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has called on citizens not to support drug cartels and not to oppose the installation of National Guard barracks. This comes after videos surfaced showing residents in southern Chiapas cheering convoys of cartel gunmen. The Sinaloa and Jalisco cartels are in turf battles in the region over control of drug and migrant smuggling and extortion income. The president acknowledged that cartels engage in public relations efforts but accused those opposing National Guard barracks of aiding criminals. Residents in some areas oppose barracks due to various reasons, including environmental concerns. Associated Press

12 suspected cartel gunmen killed in Mexico’s Sonora state.   At least 12 suspected criminals were killed in a foiled attempt to rescue the son of a cartel hitman on a highway near Hermosillo in the Mexican state of Sonora. The group, armed with assault weapons, was suspected of trying to rescue the son of a Sinaloa Cartel hitman, Carlos Humberto, who had been detained for "crimes against health." Security forces managed to repel the attack, recovering numerous weapons, ammunition, and vehicles. This incident comes as Mexico prepares for a court hearing in the U.S. over holding gunmakers responsible for arms trafficked to criminal organizations.  Reuters

Guatemala’s new government makes extortion its top security priority. Guatemala's new administration, led by President Bernardo Arévalo, has made addressing widespread extortion its top security priority. The country's extortion problem is primarily driven by gang "imitators" who exploit the violent reputation of gangs to extort money from people. About 20% of extortion cases are directly attributable to gangs, while the rest are carried out by opportunistic criminals. Much of the extortion is traced back to Guatemala's prisons, where inmates use contraband phones to threaten and terrorize small business owners. The government plans to launch a public awareness campaign, reinforce the police and their intelligence capacity, and focus on tackling drug trafficking operations.  Associated Press

Brazil backs Beijing's 'One China policy,' foreign minister Wang Yi says.  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi welcomed Brazil's support for Beijing's "One China policy," which recognizes Taiwan as part of China. Wang's visit to Brazil aimed to strengthen bilateral ties between the two countries. During his visit, Wang met with Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and they discussed various global issues, including conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. The visit reflects improved relations between China and Brazil, which had faced challenges during the previous government of Jair Bolsonaro. The two countries also signed a visa agreement to extend the validity of visas from five to ten years, promoting business travel and tourism. China is Brazil's largest export market, particularly for soy and iron ore, and Chinese companies are increasing their investments in various sectors in Brazil.  Reuters

OPINION — U.S. must quickly field hypersonic missile defense.  Cipher Brief Expert Rear Adm. (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, former executive director of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission, and Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, write in Defense News about how U.S. efforts to develop defenses against Chinese hypersonic capabilities are falling behind.  The two emphasize that while the Pentagon has a significant budget allocated to offensive hypersonic capabilities, funding for hypersonic is inadequate, with a hypersonic defense system not expected until fiscal 2034.  The problem, in part, appears to be the Pentagon’s risk-aversion and fear of acquisition failure delaying the selection of a defense company to start development.  Congress has taken steps to address the issue, allocating additional research and development funding and directing the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) to achieve an initial operating capability for a glide-hase intercept system by 2029.  Montgomery and Bowman argue that the Pentagon must prioritize and further invest in hypersonic missile defense to bolster Pacific deterrence.  Defense News

Asia and Oceania

Russia becomes China’s main oil supplier in 2023.  Russia surpassed Saudi Arabia as the top crude oil supplier for China in 2023, despite Western sanctions aimed at curbing Russian oil exports over its invasion of Ukraine.  According to Chinese customs data, Russia shipped a record 107.02 million metric tons of crude oil to China last year, equivalent to 2.14 million barrels per day (bpd), while Saudi imports fell 1.8% to 85.96 million tons.  China and India have increasingly bought Russian oil, which is trading at significant discounts largely due to embargoes.  Reuters CNN

Taiwan detects six more Chinese balloons over Strait, one crosses island.  Taiwan’s defense ministry said it detected six Chinese balloons fly over the Taiwan Strait on Sunday, with one crossing over the southern part of the island.  The balloons all drifted east and vanished.  Taiwan has condemned the Chinese balloon flights as threats to aviation safety and part of efforts to wage psychological warfare against the island.  Reuters Associated Press Barron’s 

Philippines condemns Chinese coast guard’s ’provocative action’ against Filipino fishermen.  The Philippines on Monday condemned the latest “provocative action” by the Chinese coast guard against Filipino fishermen in the disputed South China Sea.  A spokesperson for the Philippines’  National Security Council said the condemnation referred to an incident on January 12 in which the Chinese coast guard allegedly told the fishermen to return sea shells they collected near the Scarborough Shoal and then drove them from the area.   Reuters 

U.K. provides UN with photos of North Korean cargo shipments to Russia.  The UK has submitted satellite photos to UN experts that allegedly document North Korea's illegal arms trading with Russia. The images reportedly show sanctioned Russian ships loading cargo at North Korea's Najin port and sailing to Russian ports in its far east.  The cargo is believed to contain significant military equipment, including ballistic missiles, though contents of the cargo could not be confirmed. The photos, viewed by The Guardian, were taken between September and December. The UN panel on North Korean weapons proliferation is expected to publish a final report on the arms shipments next month.  The Guardian Kyiv Independent

Putin may visit Pyongyang soon, North Korea says.  Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his willingness to visit Pyongyang at an “early date” during a meeting with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui in Moscow. North Korean state media said that Putin thanked North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for the invitation, which could lead to Putin’s first trip to North Korea in over two decades. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov mentioned that Russia hopes the visit will take place "in the foreseeable future," but no specific date has been agreed upon. Putin’s meeting with Choe covered Pyongyang’s military support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and concerns about the U.S.  Reuters The Hill Associated Press Bloomberg

ANALYSIS — China’s military purges offer some respite for Taiwan.  Recent purges in China's military, particularly in the elite "rocket force," suggest a reduced likelihood of a large-scale assault on Taiwan. The removal of senior officers signals President Xi Jinping's lack of confidence and an effort to strengthen control. The unprecedented crackdown may impact China’s military capabilities in the short term. Despite this, Beijing's long-term goal of annexing Taiwan persists. The new defense minister, Dong Jun, is experienced in Taiwan-related military matters and maritime power. China also continues its pressure campaign on Taiwan.  Al Jazeera

ANALYSIS — Taiwan’s doubt in U.S. support is growing.  Taiwan, caught between China's increasing assertiveness and a divided U.S., faces growing doubts about America's commitment to its defense. Despite pre-election polling showing support for stronger relations and recent weapons sales from the U.S., faith in America is plummeting. This doubt comes from historical skepticism based in the U.S. withdrawal from Taiwan in 1979 and ensuing policy of “strategic ambiguity;” events like the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; concerns about the U.S. prioritizing its own economic interests over Taiwan’s security; and uncertainty about potential changes in support after upcoming U.S. elections.  New York Times

ANALYSIS — Do U.S.-Philippine military ties make Manila a target for China?  Growing military ties between the U.S. and the Philippines are raising concerns about the increased risk for the Philippines in the event of a U.S.-China conflict.  Recent activities like the transfer of U.S. Navy fuel to Subic Bay in the Philippines has made critics question if the U.S. is pre-positioning military supplies in the Philippines for a potential conflict, namely over Taiwan, and how this could make Manila a target for Beijing.  This comes as tensions between China and the Philippines increase over territorial disputes in the South China Sea.  South China Morning Post

WSJ VIDEO ANALYSIS — China’s Rocket Force poses heightened challenge to U.S.  China’s secretive Rocket Force has increased testing of missiles and development of weapons designed to evade U.S. defenses.  The force is rapidly expanding China’s nuclear deterrence capabilities and has built one of the world’s largest missile forces, potentially to prepare for a possible invasion of Taiwan.  Wall Street Journal

ANALYSIS — North Korean missiles to get real-world tests in Ukraine.  North Korea's ballistic missiles are set to get their first real-world tests when they are used by Russia in Ukraine.  The use of the weapons will likely provide Pyongyang with valuable technical and military insights on their performance.  Experts note that it will be key to see how well Ukraine’s Patriot defense systems counter the missiles since both South Korea and Japan also deploy Patriot batteries to counter North Korean threats.  Bloomberg

ANALYSIS — Is North Korea’s Kim Jong Un really seeking war now?  ​​North Korea has recently escalated military provocations, firing artillery shells near South Korean border islands, testing an underwater nuclear drone, and declaring the South a "hostile state." The tensions come after a shift in Pyongyang’s posture in recent years, caused by internal economic pressures, frustrations with diplomacy with the U.S., and increased closeness with Russia.  Some analysts suggest North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may be preparing for war. However, other analysts say Kim is raising tensions to unsettle Seoul and Washington in sensitive election years to elicit engagement and potential concessions, like easing of sanctions. It is also possible that China can limit North Korea’s military adventurism.  New York Times

Afghanistan plane crash kills two Taliban officials.  A charter plane crashed in the northern Afghan province of Badakhshan on Sunday, killing two Taliban officials who were aboard.  Four other passengers survived the crash and were with Taliban authorities.  Russian aviation authorities said that a Russian-registered plane disappeared from radar screens over Afghanistan overnight.  Reuters The Guardian RFE/RL Associated Press

Europe

Russia criticizes NATO drills as return to Cold War schemes.  Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko condemned NATO’s Steadfast Defender 2024 exercises as an “irrevocable return” to Cold War-era schemes and part of the West’s hybrid war against Russia.  NATO said last week that it is launching the exercise, which will involve around 90,000 troops, marking the alliance’s largest drills since the Cold War, to rehearse how NATO will reinforce its eastern flank against a “near-peer” adversary, a veiled reference to Russia.  Reuters

Baltic states agree to common defense zone to counter Russian threats.  Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have agreed to establish a common Baltic defense zone on their borders with Russia and Belarus to address growing security concerns. The defense ministers of the three Baltic countries approved the construction of "anti-mobility defensive installations" on their eastern frontiers and agreed to enhance missile-artillery cooperation. Estonia plans to build 600 bunkers along its border with Russia, with an initial budget of €60 million, starting construction in early 2025. Lithuania and Latvia's bunker contributions have yet to be disclosed, though Latvia is considering mining part of its frontier.  Politico Bloomberg

U.K. police set up new unit to counter hostile state threats.  The British police announced on Friday that they have established a new unit to counter threats from hostile state actors, including China, Russia, and Iran.  The unit comes amid concerns about espionage, terrorism amid the Israel-Hamas war, and misinformation ahead of U.K. elections.  Reuters 

Middle East

Pakistan, Iran say they do not seek escalation after airstrikes.  Pakistan and Iran have moved to de-escalate tensions following tit-for-tat strikes both sides say targeted militants in each other’s territory.  Pakistan said it will use existing communication channels with Iran to address each other’s security concerns and ensure regional stability.  Iranian state media reported on the effort and said both sides want to cooperate moving forward and return each other’s ambassadors, who were withdrawn amid the escalation.  Deutsche Welle France 24 

Iran successfully launches Sorayya satellite.  Iranian state media says that Iran has successfully launched its Sorayya satellite into orbit. The satellite, developed by the research arm of the Iranian Space Agency, was launched by the Qaem 100, a three-stage solid-fuel rocket built by the military Revolutionary Guards, to a 750 km orbit, the highest successfully achieved by Tehran. The move is likely to increase Western concerns about how the long-range ballistic technology used for satellite launches could potentially enable Iran to launch longer-range weapons, including nuclear warheads. Iran denies such assertions, stating that its satellite activities are not related to ballistic missile or nuclear weapon development. Iran has faced technical challenges with several failed satellite launches in recent years.  Reuters Associated Press

Iranian soldiers kills five fellow troops in southeastern Iran.  An Iranian soldier killed five fellow soldiers on Sunday in the southeastern city of Kerman, where 94 people were killed in a bombing that was claimed by Islamic State.  Iranian state TV said the shooter’s motive was not immediately clear and that the suspect is at large.  Associated Press 

Africa

Egypt’s Sisi defends Somalia, criticizes Ethiopia-Somaliland sea access deal.  Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi criticized Ethiopia's sea access agreement with Somaliland, asserting that Cairo will not allow anyone to threaten Somalia’s security and. El-Sisi added that Ethiopia should pursue cooperation on development rather than attempt to seize land. Ethiopia's deal with Somaliland involves leasing coastland for 50 years in return for recognizing Somaliland's independence. Ethiopia maintains the arrangement is a commercial deal, but Somalia has rejected the agreement, considering it a violation of international law.  Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera 

ANALYSIS — Angola project shows how U.S. is challenging China’s influence in Africa.  The U.S. is challenging China's commercial dominance in Angola by securing a 30-year concession for the $1.7 billion Lobito Corridor project. Angola rejected a Chinese bid in favor of a U.S.-backed European consortium, marking a surprise opening for the U.S. to compete against China's Belt and Road infrastructure campaign in Africa. The project aims to transport green-energy minerals from Congo to Angola's Atlantic coast. The U.S. government plans to lend $250 million to support the project, signaling a strategic move to enhance commercial ties with Africa and challenge China's influence in the region. Wall Street Journal

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Chinese scientists develop GPS-guided ‘dream shell.’  ​​Chinese naval scientists claim to have developed a smart shell for kinetic energy weapons, propelled by an electromagnetic gun and guided by the BeiDou satellite navigation system. The shell can reportedly achieve a speed of Mach 7 while maintaining accuracy. While it may not be precise enough for small moving targets like tanks, it is suitable for larger targets such as warships. The Chinese team said it developed a new antenna design, a special internal structure, and novel thermal protection using aerogel for the shell. The breakthrough is part of China's efforts to achieve advancements in electromagnetic weapons.  The U.S. Navy had reportedly abandoned its own efforts to develop a GPS-guided “dream shell.”  South China Morning Post

China buys nearly $40 billion in chipmaking equipment amid U.S. curbs.  China’s imports of chipmaking machines increased by 14% in 2023 to nearly $40 billion, marking the second-largest value on record since 2015.  The increase came despite an overall 5,5% decline in total imports.  The surge in chipmaking machinery imports reflects significant investments by China to bolster its domestic semiconductor industry and achieve self-sufficiency to overcome U.S.-led export controls limiting Beijing’s access to the technology.  Imports from the Netherlands notably spiked ahead of new export controls, with lithography equipment imports increasing nearly 1,000% in December to $1.1 billion.  Bloomberg

Chinese intelligence releases comic calling for protection of rare earths.  China's chief intelligence agency, the State Security Ministry, shared a comic strip on social media depicting foreign-looking characters engaged in secretive activities to extract rare earths. The comic suggests that China's strategic metals are under threat from "overseas organizations" and that it is vitally important for Bijing to safeguard its key mineral resources amid heightened global competition. No specific foreign governments or agencies are named, and the ministry didn't outline specific measures to counter foreign interest in China's rare earths. China, the largest global producer of rare earths, introduced export restrictions on germanium and gallium last year, citing national security reasons.  Reuters

CISA warns of Ivanti vulnerabilities.  CISA has issued an emergency directive instructing civilian agencies to immediately patch two vulnerabilities in Ivanti's products, Ivanti Policy Secure and Ivanti Connect Secure. The vulnerabilities, CVE-2023-46805 and CVE-2024-21887, could allow hackers to perform data exfiltration and establish persistent system access. CISA warned of widespread exploitation of the vulnerabilities by multiple threat actors and considered the risk unacceptable, requiring emergency action. Ivanti has outlined mitigations for the vulnerabilities, and CISA plans to work with agencies on implementing the directive. The agency has observed initial targeting of federal agencies and is investigating.  The Record

Microsoft executive emails accessed by Russian state-sponsored hackers.  Microsoft disclosed in a regulatory filing that the Russian intelligence group Nobelium breached email accounts of some of the company's top executives. The breach was detected last week, and Microsoft has said that it has not found signs of Nobelium accessing customer data, production systems, or proprietary source code.  The FBI is aware of the recent attack and is working on the matter. Microsoft considers Nobelium, which is the same group behind the SolarWinds breach in 2020, as part of the Russian foreign intelligence service SVR.  CNBC

European commercial astronaut mission, including first Turkish astronaut, arrives at ISS.  A four-man space crew, including Turkey’s first astronaut, docked with the International Space Station (ISS) on Saturday.  A Falcon 9 rocket launched the crew on a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule in a commercially arranged mission from Texas startup Axiom Space.  The astronauts will spend roughly two weeks aboard the ISS to conduct scientific experiments on impacts of spaceflight on human health.  The mission also reflects how a growing number of countries are entering Earth orbit.  Deutsche Welle

Japan’s SLIM spacecraft lands on lunar surface.  Japan's Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM) successfully landed on the moon on Friday. However, SLIM's solar cells failed to generate power, leading to the spacecraft's power-down. Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) it is possible to reactivate the spacecraft later in the lunar day since SLIM's solar cells face west and may receive sunlight as the sun's position changes. JAXA is preparing for recovery and will hold a press conference on January 25 to reveal the mission's progress. SLIM’s landing makes Japan the fifth country to land on the lunar surface.  Reuters Associated Press CNN 

Estonia begins work on semi-autonomous European naval vessel.  Estonia and shipbuilder Baltic Workboats have begun work on a four-year project to develop a semi-autonomous vessel prototype for European naval forces.  Twenty-three companies and research institutions from 10 E.U. member states are collaborating on the program, dubbed EUROGUARD.  The project is expected to cost around €95 million (U.S. $103 million). The E.U. will cover €65 million (U.S. $71 million) of expenses through the European Defense Fund. A test of a physical prototype is planned for the end of 2027.  Defense News 

U.K. downs aerial target with DragonFire laser.  An industry team, led by missile-maker MBDA, successfully destroyed an aerial target with the DragonFire laser. DragonFire is a £30 million direct-energy weapon being developed by Britain’s Ministry of Defense that could be deployed within the next 5 to 10 years. The trial is a key step towards deployment that demonstrates the weapon’s ability to track and engage high-end targets at range. The laser is part of a £100 million joint investment between the industry team and ministry to develop directed-energy weapons, which aim to boost the British military’s air defense accuracy while reducing reliance on high-cost ammunition.  Defense News 

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Elaine Shannon, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, Ryan Simons, and Tiffany Krueger contributed to this report.

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