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10:00 AM ET, Monday, January 15, 2024

Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world. 

Here’s what’s happening now:

THE TOP STORIES

Taiwanese voters defy Beijing, elect staunch advocate for independence

North Korea fires suspected intermediate-range ballistic missile

Ukraine confirms downing of Russian A-50 plane over Azov Sea

Two U.S. Navy SEALs missing after operation off Somali coast

THE ISRAEL HAMAS WAR

China’s FM calls for Gaza ceasefire, Palestinian statehood.  In a meeting with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and expressed support for Palestinian statehood. Wang emphasized China's support for a two-state solution, with a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as the capital. He also stressed the importance of political dialogue to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and praised Egypt's role in mediating peace efforts in the region. South China Morning Post 
Houthis target US Destroyer in Red Sea. Yemen's Houthi rebels on Sunday fired an anti-ship cruise missile toward a U.S. destroyer in the Red Sea, which was shot down by a U.S. fighter jet. This marks the first U.S.-acknowledged attack by the Houthis since the U.S. and allied nations initiated strikes on the rebels following their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. These attacks threaten to escalate the Israel-Hamas conflict and disrupt global shipping. While it's unclear if the U.S. will retaliate, President Biden has stated his commitment to protecting international commerce and U.S. interests. The Houthis, an Iranian-backed rebel group, did not immediately claim responsibility for the attack.  Associated Press

U.S. launches additional strike against Houthis in Yemen.  The U.S. military launched another airstrike against a Houthi target in Yemen on Saturday over their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.  U.S. Central Command said the “follow-on action” a day after initial strikes against the rebels hit a Houthi radar site and was conducted by a U.S. destroyer using Tomahawk missiles.  This strike was conducted solely by the U.S., while the U.K. participated in previous strikes.  Associated Press Bloomberg

Much of Houthis’ Offensive Capability Remains Intact After U.S.-led Airstrikes.   The New York Times reports that the U.S.-led airstrikes in Yemen against Houthi-controlled sites damaged about 90% of the targets struck but left the group with three-quarters of its missile and drone-firing capabilities. The strikes aimed to deter Houthi retaliation, secure critical shipping routes in the Red Sea, and contain regional conflict. While U.S. officials claimed success in damaging Houthi capabilities, challenges persist in targeting the group effectively. Houthi attacks on commercial ships, in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, have prompted efforts to identify and catalog potential Houthi targets more comprehensively.  NY Times

Pentagon says strikes against Houthis positive.  A Pentagon spokesman said on Friday that the U.S.-British strikes on Iran-backed Houthis militants in Yemen had “good effects” and that Washington and London will monitor the situation for any Houthi retaliation.  The spokesman added that there are no current plans to deploy additional U.S. forces in the region and that the U.S. does not seek an “extension of the conflict in Gaza” in the region, though emphasized that Washington could not allow Houthi attacks to continue.  The spokesman also said that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who was hospitalized in early January, was “actively engaged” in conducting the strikes.  BBC Reuters

Hamas airs video of Israeli hostages, says it will disclose their fate.  Hamas released a video featuring three Israeli hostages in Gaza, urging Israel to halt its offensive and secure their release on the 100th day of the conflict. Noa Argamani, Yossi Sharabi, and Itai Svirsky appeared in the video. Hamas had previously threatened to execute hostages in retaliation for Israeli military strikes. Israel has been cautious about responding to Hamas' public messages regarding the hostages. Approximately 132 hostages remain in Gaza, with 25 reported deaths in captivity.  South China Morning Post 

Qatar brokers deal with Hamas to deliver medicine to Gaza hostages.  The Israeli prime minister's office said Mossad director David Barnea asked Qatar to arrange for permission to send medicine to the estimated 105 hostages still believed alive in Gaza. Many elderly, with chronic illnesses that require daily medication. But it was unclear when and how deliveries would happen. The Hostages and Missing Families Forum is demanding “visual proof” that the medications actually reach those held captive. So far Hamas has refused to let the International Committee of the Red Cross see the hostages or supply them with essential medicine.  Reuters  BBC

Western allies split over the U.S.-U.K. strikes on Houthis. According to U.S. officials, the Netherlands, Australia, Canada and Bahrain provided logistical and intelligence support for the strikes. Those nations, plus Germany, Denmark, New Zealand and South Korea, signed a joint statement justifying the action as necessary to protect international trade lanes.  But Italy, Spain and France declined to sign the 10-nation pact. CBS News Reuters

Erdogan accuses U.S., Britain of “trying to turn Red Sea into 'sea of blood' “  The Turkish leader encouraged Houthi counterattacks as a “necessary response” and “very successful defense.” Painting Israel, the U.S.and U.K. as aggressors, Erdogan said that Iran is looking at "how it can protect itself against all that is happening." Reuters 

Yemenis protest US, UK strikes on Houthis  Ten of thousands of people gathered across Yemen to protest U.S. and British strikes in their country in response to Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea.  Houthi leaders accused the U.S. and its allies of “terrorism,” and Iran-backed Iraqi militia Harakat al-Nujaba issued unspecified threats against them.  Reuters  Al Arabiya  

Houthi missile narrowly misses Russian oil tanker British maritime security company Ambrey said the tanker was “mistakenly targeted by the Houthis whilst carrying Russian oil." The errant missile was fired 90 nautical miles southeast of Aden and landed 400 to 500 meters from the ship, according to a report from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) organization.  Bloomberg Reuters

ANALYSIS– 100 days of  war – the conflict that began with the Hamas attack on Israel threatens the region, and beyond.  More than 23,000 Palestinians have been killed, mostly women and children, according to Palestinian authorities; nearly 70% of  the homes and about half the buildings in Gaza have been damaged or leveled. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu took to television Saturday night to denounce the International Court of Justice at The Hague, for holding hearings on South Africa’s allegations that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians. “No one will stop us, not The Hague, not the axis of evil and not anyone else,” Netanyahu said.

On Sunday, speaking on the CBS news show Face the Nation, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the U.S. has been urging Israel to make a ‘transition to low-intensity operations.”  If Israel is heeding pleas from the White House, it’s not evident. The Biden administration has been laboring to keep Iran, Hezbollah’s powerful ally, out of the fight, but Israel has been trading fire almost daily with Hezbollah and Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq.  On Sunday, Israeli warplanes struck targets in Lebanon to retaliate for a Hezbollah missile attack that killed two Israeli civilians in northern Israel.

The economic impact of the hostilities is uncertain but likely growing. Houthi attacks on international shipping lanes are forcing cargo lines to re-route away from the Red Sea, a disruption in global trade that may send some commodity prices higher.  Wall Street Journal   Associated Press  Washington Post  Associated Press  Financial Times

ANALYSIS —  Iran doesn’t want war.  Analysts with international groups and Iranian sources tell Reuters that Tehran hopes to avoid being drawn into the conflict ignited by its Houthi proxy.  "While there are likely to be responses from various Iranian proxies elsewhere in the region, a major escalation from Iran as a response to these strikes is unlikely," said Gregory Brew, analyst at Eurasia Group. "Iran is unlikely to directly enter the fray as long as it has not been directly targeted on its own soil," agreed Ali Vaez, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group. Biden said Saturday that he sent a message to Tehran about the Houthis. He didn’t say what the message was.  "We delivered it privately and we're confident we're well-prepared," he told reporters.  Reuters VOA

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine confirms downing of Russian A-50 plane over Azov Sea.  Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi confirmed that Ukraine’s military downed a Russian A-50 plane over the weekend.  Ukraine’s Chief of Military Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov also confirmed the operation, but said that the plane was able to make an emergency landing. RBC Ukraine originally reported that Ukrainian forces had destroyed the Russian aircraft over the Azov Sea on Sunday, citing an anonymous Ukrainian military source.  The A-50 aircraft reportedly provides several capabilities for ongoing Russian military operations in Ukraine, such as detecting air defense systems, guided missiles, and coordinating targets for Russian fighter aircraft.  Zaluzhnyi declined to share additional details, but according to reports, the A-50 plane was shot down shortly after it ‘went on duty’ in the Kyrylivka area of Zaporizhzhia at 9:10 p.m. local time.  Kyiv Independent RBC Financial Times

Ukraine attacked over weekend by 40 Russian missiles, drones.  Ukrainian officials reported a significant missile attack on Saturday that included 37 Russian missiles and three drones.  Kyiv says that only eight missiles were intercepted by its air defenses. Ukraine's air force previously reported a shortage of air defense missiles. The Russian missiles used in the attack were ‘fast-moving ballistic types’, making them difficult to intercept. In addition to the missiles that were downed, Ukrainian electronic warfare and active countermeasures reportedly prevented more than 20 missiles from successfully reaching their targets. The specific targets of the strike were not disclosed, but air defenses were active in multiple regions across Ukraine.  Reuters Al Jazeera

Zelenksy: ‘Good news’ on air defense systems to come soon. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that the country is preparing to announce "good news" regarding air defense systems. While he did not provide specific details, this likely alludes to Ukraine receiving additional air defense systems in the near future. Zelensky also mentioned agreements on joint production of weapons, ammunition, and drones, emphasizing Ukraine's efforts to strengthen its defense capabilities. These announcements follow pledges of military aid from the UK and Latvia, which include air defense equipment, anti-tank weapons, long-range missiles, drones, howitzers, and munitions. Kyiv Independent

Zelensky to Meet JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon in Davos as Ukraine Seeks Aid Rebuilding. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky plans to meet with JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s CEO, Jamie Dimon, during the World Economic Forum. He aims to secure financial support for Ukraine's fight against Russia as more than $100 billion in crucial aid for Kyiv remains stalled in Washington and Brussels. Ukraine's appeals for assistance have faced challenges as the war enters its third year, with global attention shifting to other conflicts like the Israel-Hamas confrontation. JPMorgan, who has been advising Zelensky on attracting private capital for reconstruction projects, recently arranged for Zelensky to meet with US financial leaders including Citadel’s Ken Griffin and Blackstone Inc.’s Jon Gray as part of ongoing efforts by Kyiv to find new sources of private-sector funds to help rebuild the country.  Bloomberg 

Yermak: Zelensky's team will not allow war to freeze.  Ukraine's Presidential office head, Andrii Yermak, stated that Ukraine's current leadership will not agree to a "freezing" of the conflict with Russia. He emphasized that Ukraine seeks a just peace based on international law and the UN Charter. Ukraine's partners are not pushing Kyiv to give up occupied territories, as territorial concessions are unpopular in Ukraine. The statement comes following discussions on the Ukrainian Peace Formula in Switzerland, where 80 countries and one international organization attended a meeting to finalize principles for a lasting and just peace in Ukraine. Kyiv Independent

At Ukraine Peace Formula meeting in Davos, officials call for China involvement to end war.  Eighty countries and one international organization attended a meeting on Ukraine's Peace Formula at Davos, Switzerland, demonstrating increasing global support for resolving the conflict. The meeting included participants from Europe, Asia, Africa, South America, North America, and Oceania. Andriy Yermak, head of the presidential office, emphasized the importance of international engagement in addressing the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Yermak, emphasized the importance of China's involvement in talks to end the war with Russia and called for Beijing to be at the table during further meetings on Ukraine's peace formula. The call for China’s involvement was echoed by Swiss Federal Councillor Ignazio Cassis who underscored Beijing’s critical role in potentially bringing the war to an end. The Peace Formula aims to restore Ukraine's territorial integrity, withdraw Russian troops, and hold those responsible for war crimes accountable. It has garnered significant support from Ukraine's Western allies. The meeting's goal was to finalize talks on principles for a lasting and just peace in Ukraine.  Kyiv Independent Reuters South China Morning Post

French foreign minister visits Kyiv, pledges military support.  French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne pledged continued support for Ukraine and defense manufacturing collaboration during his first official visit to Kyiv on Saturday. Sejourne committed to resolving legal issues to facilitate French companies establishing more military production facilities in Ukraine. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba thanked Sejourne for his visit amid Russian missile attacks and called for increased efforts to prevent the use of Western-made electronics in Russian missiles. Kuleba also acknowledged the completion of several cooperation deals between Ukrainian and French defense companies and urged further collaboration for further localization of manufacturing in Ukraine.  Reuters Associated Press

ISW says Russia planning new offensive campaign. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says that Russia is preparing for a new offensive in Ukraine in the coming weeks, targeting southern and eastern regions once the ground freezes. Russian sources suggest that this large offensive effort could begin between January 12 and February 2. While the number of Russian personnel on the frontline allows for localized activities, it may not lead to operationally significant breakthroughs. Cold weather conditions are impacting both sides, with Ukrainian forces reporting that Russian aviation is hampered by freezing weather. The Russian Investigative Committee is also launching an investigation into a massive fire at a warehouse in St. Petersburg, with arson being one possible cause.  Kyiv Independent ISW Reuters

ANALYSIS — Missiles from Iran and North Korea boost Russia’s onslaught on Ukraine.  The Financial Times is out with new analysis that says the alleged use of North Korean ballistic missiles by Russia in Ukraine, potentially violating UN sanctions, has raised concerns about the shifting balance of military supplies in favor of Moscow. North Korea, facing economic challenges, may have reserves of up to 100 KN-23 missiles, which it could transfer to Russia in exchange for financial support. While Kyiv's allies, led by the US, have condemned North Korea's arms transfers, Russian officials dismissed the allegations as US disinformation. Moscow is also engaged in talks with Iran to potentially acquire hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles. This comes as Russia has reportedly increased its own missile and drone production, with the capacity to manufacture over 100 long-range missiles per month and around 300 attack drones. Analysts say these additional supplies will likely enable Russia to maintain its aggressive pace in the conflict. Meanwhile, as Ukraine's allies struggle to approve ongoing military aid, Kyiv has made progress in developing its own missile and drone technology and aims to produce over 11,000 medium and long-range attack drones in 2024.  Financial Times

Amid War in Middle East, Ukraine Fights to Keep U.S. and Allies’ Focus.  As Ukraine faces its third year of full-scale war against Russia's invasion, it struggles to maintain international attention amid global focus on conflicts in the Middle East. Western powers have shifted their attention towards events in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Hamas, while the Ukraine-Russia war appears to some to have stagnated with little prospect of imminent progress. Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his goals in Ukraine, but Western diplomats claim Moscow is uninterested in sincere negotiations. Ukrainian leaders are also reluctant to negotiate terms that involve ceding territory to Russia. Outside Ukraine, support has dwindled, with funding for as much as $60 billion in new U.S. military aid stuck in Congress.  In Europe, EU leaders endure tough negotiations over an aid package worth more than $50 billion in financial support to Ukraine, after Hungary vetoed the plan last month.. Nevertheless, Ukraine continues to seek international support and pressure on Russia, with recent talks held in Davos, Switzerland aimed at securing new support and establishing the framework of potential peace negotiations.  Wall Street Journal 

Moscow calls U.S. plan to confiscate Russian assets '21st century piracy'.  The Russian Foreign Ministry has condemned a US plan to confiscate up to $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine's reconstruction, calling it "21st century piracy." The ministry warned of harsh retaliation if such a move were carried out, emphasizing that it would violate international law and disrupt the global financial system. The US is reportedly backing legislation that would enable the seizure of certain Russian assets to support Ukraine's recovery efforts. Russia has accused the US of trying to strong-arm the European Union into adopting a similar asset confiscation plan. The ongoing conflict has strained efforts to secure financial support for Ukraine.  Reuters

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

The Americas

Three migrants drown near Texas border, prompting clash over border policy.  Three migrants drowned in the Rio Grande by Eagle Pass, Texas, fueling a dispute between state and federal officials over immigration policies. The Department of Homeland Security claimed Texas Military Department agents physically barred Border Patrol from responding to a distress call from Mexican authorities about the migrants, while the military department countered that the migrants had already drowned when the request was made. The incident further escalates tensions between the Biden administration and Texas over immigration enforcement. Texas Governor Greg Abbott's stringent border security measures have been met with criticism by the federal government over concerns about migrant safety and the limits of state enforcement of immigration law.  New York Times Associated Press Reuters Al Jazeera NBC News CNN 

Guatemalan reformer sworn in as president after midnight.  Chaos erupted in Guatemala Sunday when political wrangling delayed the inaugural of President-elect Bernardo Arévalo, a reformer elected last August. Opponents in Congress fought hard to postpone the historic moment.  Arévalo was finally able to take the oath of office in an early morning ceremony.  Arévalo, a center-left sociologist and son of former Guatemalan president Juan José Arévalo, won a surprise victory last August over establishment forces. Guatemalan Attorney General Consuelo Porras and several prosecutors tried to overturn the election by filing fraud charges, which the nation’s elections court rejected. Arévalo’s promises to fight corruption and poverty that are driving waves of migrants to Mexico and the U.S., fueling the border crisis won the Biden administration’s strong backing. The Washington Post reported that American diplomats moved aggressively behind the scenes, bombarding influential Guatemalan politicians and businesspeople with a “blizzard of sanctions, stern public statements and quiet arm-twisting.”  Guatemala’s congress delayed Arévalo’s swearing in, causing his supporters to pour into the streets to protest and scuffle with riot police. Wall Street Journal Washington Post Associated Press New York Times Reuters 

Ecuador regaining control of prisons after hostage crisis.  Ecuador's police and military are working to restore order in the country's prisons after dozens of staff were held hostage by inmates. Armed soldiers entered seven jails on Saturday evening to regain control. Hostages, including 158 prison guards and 20 administrative staff, have since been released. The government suggested recent unrest caused by armed groups was in reaction to President Daniel Noboa's plans to address the escalating security situation in the Andean nation.  Reuters Al Jazeera CNN 

ANALYSIS — Galápagos Islands become way station for transnational criminal groups.  The Galápagos Islands, a UNESCO World Heritage site that’s home to rare species, has become a refueling and staging spot for cocaine traffickers heading to Africa and Europe and gunrunners bound for troubled Ecuador. Washington Post

Asia and Oceania

Taiwanese voters defy Beijing, elect staunch advocate for independence. Taiwan vice president Lai Ching-te, Lai, also known as William Lai, easily won Saturday’s election over an opponent who had urged a more conciliatory attitude toward the People’s Republic of China, which claims the island as its territory and opposes Taiwan nationhood. “The election has shown the world the commitment of the Taiwanese people to democracy, which I hope China can understand,” Lai declared in his victory speech.  He promised to maintain the status quo in relations with Beijing but added that he was "determined to safeguard Taiwan from threats and intimidation from China."  “Taiwan just chose a president China loathes,” the BBC headlined. “What now?” “Beijing loathes the new president,” the New York Times echoed. “He aims to protect the status quo with caution and American help, but tensions are likely to rise.”

From Washington, President Biden voiced his support for the limbo-like status quo. “We do not support independence,” he said. Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared that the United States “is committed to maintaining cross-Strait peace and stability” and will “work with Taiwan  to further our long-standing unofficial relationship, consistent with the U.S. one China policy.”  CNN  BBC  New York Times Washington Post

Blinken met top Chinese envoy on eve of Taiwan elections.  Hours before Taiwanese headed for the polls to elect a new president, Secretary of State Antony Blinken met in Washington with Liu Jianchao, the Chinese Communist Party’s international minister, to urge “peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea.’’  Liu came with reassurances that China wasn’t planning military action against Taiwan, but he told the Council on Foreign Relations, “For China, the Taiwan question is at the very core of the core interests,” he said. “It’s the red line that mustn’t be crossed.”  Meanwhile, the U.S. House passed three bills favoring Taiwan, including support for its membership in the International Monetary Fund.  The measures were sent to the U.S. Senate for action.  Associated Press South China Morning Post

US delegation visits Taiwan after voters defy China.  A high-level US delegation, including former national security adviser Stephen J Hadley and former deputy secretary of state James B Steinberg, visited Taipei, Taiwan, following the election of President Lai Ching-te. China has accused Lai of being a dangerous separatist and criticized the US, UK, and Japan for congratulating his weekend election victory. The delegation met with Lai, outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, and other Taiwanese politicians to convey congratulations and support for continued growth and cross-Strait peace. In comments released by Tsai’s office, Hadley called Taiwan’s democracy “a shining example to the world” and said that America’s commitment to Taiwan was “rock solid”.  Some observers view the US mission as risky, as it may provoke Beijing, which objects to any official contacts between Taiwan's government and other countries.  Associated Press Bloomberg Financial Times  Reuters 

North Korea fires suspected intermediate-range ballistic missile. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff and Japan’s Defense ministry reported detecting the launch Sunday afternoon local time. The missile landed in the sea off North Korea. In November, North Korea’s state media said it had successfully tested solid-fuel engines for a new intermediate-range ballistic missile. According to the AP, the solid-fuel missile is designed to hit U.S. military bases in Guam, some 2,110 miles from Pyongyang. AP quoted Chang Young-keun, a missile expert at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, as saying that with a range adjustment, the missile could strike closer targets such as  U.S. military installations in Okinawa. Politico AP New York Times Reuters  Al Jazeera 

North Korean foreign minister visits Russia.  North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui is in Moscow for a visit that could facilitate further military cooperation amid the Ukraine war, as well as a potential visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Pyongyang.  Russia said it seeks to further develop ties with North Korea in all areas, building on talks between Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in September.  Western countries and Kyiv have accused Russia of using North Korean missiles in Ukraine, which Moscow and Pyongyang deny.  Experts say that Russia’s ties with North Korea are helping both sanctions-hit and isolated economies.  Analysts also note that Choe’s visit comes amid cooling of ties between China and North Korea, which could push Pyongyang to pivot to Russia.  Reuters Bloomberg Washington Post

Nauru severs ties with Taiwan.  Taiwan severed diplomatic ties with Nauru after the Pacific Island nation said it would switch official recognition to Beijing.  Taipei accused China of using money to influence Nauru’s decision as part of efforts to diplomatically isolate Taiwan after the election of its new president, Lai Ching-te.  Taiwan also said Nauru’s move came after it demanded a “huge sum of money” from Taipei to repay its debts, which Taiwan refused.  Taiwan now only has diplomatic recognition with 12 states.  New York Times South China Morning Post Wall Street Journal

South China Sea: Philippines to develop occupied islands in disputed waters amid China tensions.  The Philippines plans to develop islands it considers part of its territory in the South China Sea to make them more habitable for troops. This announcement comes amid heightened tensions between the Philippines and China, both of whom claim territory in the South China Sea. The Philippines occupies nine features in the region, including the Second Thomas Shoal, and intends to improve them, including the strategically important Thitu Island. The country also seeks to acquire more ships, radars, and aircraft as it shifts its focus from internal defense to territorial defense.  South China Morning Post

Maldives calls for removal of Indian troops by mid-March.  The Maldives has urged India to withdraw its troops by March 15.  The government of Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu proposed the withdrawal during talks with Indian foreign ministry counterparts.  Muizzu was elected on a platform that framed Indian influence as a threat to Maldives sovereignty. Approximately 80 Indian soldiers stationed on the archipelago support military aid and humanitarian efforts. India said the talks covered issues on bilateral cooperation, avoiding mention of any troop withdrawal. Meanwhile, the Maldives is deepening ties with China, having recently signed a “comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership” with Beijing.  Reuters Bloomberg South China Morning Post Associated Press 

Explosive device kills 5 soldiers in southwest Pakistan.  A roadside bomb in Pakistan's Baluchistan province killed six soldiers and injured several others when their military vehicle passed over the improvised explosive device. Baluchistan has faced separatist violence and insurgency for years, resulting in frequent attacks on security forces.  The Pakistani army said that an ensuing battle killed three “terrorists” and that operations were ongoing in the area.  No group has claimed responsibility for the attack.  Associated Press

Senior Pakistani politician meets Taliban supreme leader in Afghanistan.  Fazlur Rehman, a senior Pakistani politician, reportedly met with the Taliban's supreme leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, in Afghanistan. This marks the first known meeting between Akhundzada and a Pakistani delegation. Rehman's visit aims to reduce tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which have escalated due to Pakistan's expulsion of foreigners without proper documents and an increase in militant attacks in Pakistan. While the Taliban have not confirmed the meeting, Rehman's party noted that it received positive support from Akhundzada. Associated Press

Europe

UK defense minister outlines 2024 priorities.  British Defense Minister Grant Shapps declared 2024 an "inflection point" for the UK’s defense, emphasizing the growing global threats from conflicts involving "irrational" powers like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Shapps outlined steps to boost defense spending to 2.5% of GDP, urging other democratic nations, especially NATO members, to follow suit. He also emphasized the UK's commitment of 20,000 military personnel for a major NATO exercise across Europe in the first half of 2024, saying that this contribution underlines Britain’s dedication to bolstering the alliance and maintaining global security.  Reuters

Middle East

Turkish airstrikes hit Kurdish militant targets in Iraq, Syria.  Turkey said it conducted airstrikes against 24 Kurdish militant targets in northern Iraq and Syria following an attack on a Turkish military base in Iraq that killed nine soldiers. The Turkish Defense Ministry stated that the operation aimed to eliminate terrorist threats and secure border areas. The Turkish government reported 36 militants killed in Iraq and nine in Syria within 24 hours after the attack. No immediate comments were provided by the Iraqi government, the Kurdish region’s administration, or the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a banned Kurdish separatist group. Turkey has ongoing military operations against PKK-affiliated targets in the region, which Iraq has protested against. Meanwhile, Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced the detention of 113 people suspected of PKK ties and arrests related to social media activity praising the group.  Associated Press Reuters

Iraq says Islamic State kills three soldiers in attack on military post.  Iraqi military sources say Islamic State militants killed three Iraqi soldiers in an attack on a military post in western Iraq on Sunday.  No group claimed responsibility for the attack, but Iraqi security sources said Islamic State militants are active in the area.  Reuters

ANALYSIS — U.S. and Iran battle through proxies, avoid direct confrontation.  The New York Times reports that the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the United States, and its allies in the Middle East has been marked by a careful avoidance of direct confrontation, despite provocations from both sides. Iran appears to be pushing its proxies to create trouble for American forces and pressure Israel and the West in various regional theaters, while exercising restraint to prevent a larger-scale conflict. Similarly, the U.S. and Israel have taken precise actions to avoid escalating tensions. For instance, when Israel targeted a Hamas leader in Beirut, it avoided harming nearby Hezbollah fighters, signaling its desire to prevent further escalation. While Iran supports its proxies' actions, it does not seem to seek an all-out war. However, any mishap involving proxies could lead to an unintended regional war, making the situation precarious.  New York Times 

Africa

Two U.S. Navy SEALs missing after operation off Somali coast.  On Thursday night, local time, SEAL team commandos were attempting to board a suspected smuggling boat in rough seas off the Somali coast when one was swept off a boarding ladder.  Another jumped in to help him, and both vanished in the ocean swell. U.S. Central Command said Saturday that search and rescue operations were ongoing, and to protect operational security, more information would not be released until the personnel recovery mission was complete.The Washington Post reported Sunday that the SEALs were sent to board the vessel to search for suspected Iranian weapons being smuggled to Houthi militants in Yemen. NY Times  CENTCOM Washington Post Associated Press

UN peacekeepers withdrawing from Democratic Republic of Congo.  Bowing to a request from Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi, the U.N. said that 2,000 troops from the Democratic Republic of Congo’s U.N. peacekeeping mission will depart the country by the end of April and all 15,000 troops will be out by the end of 2024.  Critics have said the U.N. peacekeeping presence did not bring much peace. More than 120 armed groups roam the countryside, demanding a share of the region’s gold and inflicting mass killings.  Nearly 7 million people have been displaced by the escalating conflict.  Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

China’s military still acquiring Nvidia chips despite U.S. ban.  Despite U.S. export restrictions, Chinese military and research entities have been purchasing Nvidia semiconductors, including banned A100 and H100 chips, according to Reuters. The chip maker's graphics processing units are highly regarded for AI work, and the purchases highlight the difficulty of completely cutting off Beijing's access to advanced U.S. chips. While underground markets have sprung up to meet the demand, there are few alternatives to Nvidia's products in China's AI chip market. Chinese vendors often buy excess stock or import through locally incorporated companies in other countries to circumvent restrictions.  Reuters Bloomberg 

House China committee requests testimony from leading chip firm CEOs.  The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party has sent letters to the CEO’s of Intel, Nvidia, and Micron asking that they testify on their companies’ interests in China.  Emily Kilcrease, a trade expert with the Center for a New American Security, said the committee appears to be increasing “political pressure on companies with significant operations or sales in China.”  Intel, Nvidia and Micron declined comment on the committee request.  Sources said the bipartisan committee has become eager to have chipmakers testify following the lobbying of the administration carried out by the Intel, Nvidia and Qualcomm CEO’s last year as it was preparing to toughen semiconductor-related export controls.  Kilcrease commented that “after focusing on private equity and investors in China, these letters show that the committee is equally determined to push for decoupling of tech supply chains by turning up the heat on some of American’s biggest and most critical chip companies.”  Financial Times

Ransomware attack exposes employee data at U.S. Navy shipbuilder.  A ransomware attack last April at a Wisconsin shipyard that builds ships for the Navy exposed the data of almost 17,000 people, it was revealed last week.  Fincantieri Marine Group (FMG), the U.S. subsidiary of the Italian Fincantieri shipbuilding company, confirmed that a cybersecurity “incident” caused temporary disruptions to network computer systems, including the encryption of certain files.  According to the company, the breach was “immediately isolated systems and reported the incident to relevant agencies and partners."  FMG said that personal information was exposed, including names and social security numbers.  Sources said the attack disrupted servers that providing information to manufacturing machines.  The Green Bay Press Gazette reported that shipyards in Marinette, Sturgeon Bay and Green Bay employ about 2,300 people.  FMG did not disclose if the 16,769 people affected included current and former employees.  The  Record

Aging Cisco routers in U.S., U.K., Australia targeted by China’s Volt Typhoon hackers.  Infrastructure allegedly linked to the Chinese espionage unit known as Volt Typhoon appears to be targeting Cisco routers and network devices in the U.S., U.K., and Australia.  According to the SecurityScorecard’s STRIKE Team, two vulnerabilities dating to 2019 are being exploited inCisco routers nearing the end of their operating life.  The security firm reported that its STRIKE Team had monitored frequent connections between the Cisco RV320/325 devices and Volt Typhoon infrastructure from early December through the first week of January.  The team said the connections suggest “a very active presence” on devices for which Cisco will not release software updates “as the devices are end-of-life.”  It added it had “observed possible targeting of U.S., U.K., and Australian government assets by two such devices.”  The researchers found a previously unspecified webshell, which hackers use to maintain access to a system after it has been breached, on Cisco routers and other network edge devices targeted by Volt Typhoon.  John Gallagher, an executive with the Viakoo security firm, said the obsolete Cisco routers identified by SecurityScorecard often are managed by people outside of IT departments.  He suggested that the increased traffic between known Volt Typhoon infrastructure and infected Cisco routers could be a refresher exercise for the hackers to ensure their readiness for upcoming attacks and their operational status.  The Record

Turkish government tightening Internet access in advance of March elections.  In advance of local Turkish elections in March, the country’s Technologies and Communications Authority (BTK) has instructed Internet service providers to restrict access to a dozen or so virtual private network (VPN) services.  In addition, the social media platform, X, has reported it has “taken action” against postings in response to a court order, an action it said it had to take to avoid a ban in Turkey.  Government actions like these have raised concerns that independent sources of information in the country will be increasingly hard to come by.  Andy Yen, CEO of Proton VPN, one of the services targeted by the BTK, said “Blocking…the use of VPNs in Turkey is a very concerning move for internet freedom and privacy and is a breach of people’s fundamental human rights.”  The BTK did not respond to a request for comment. Financial Times

AI chip demand drives upswing, but semiconductor sector still faces uncertainties.  The global semiconductor sector is projecting a rebound in sales in 2024, reversing a downturn in the previous year, on the strength of rising demand for AI processors.  However, uncertainty persists on just how broad the turnaround will be in light of a more modest outlook for other parts of the sector.  Data from the Semiconductor Industry Association representing many global chipmakers indicate that worldwide sales climbed to $48 billion in November, the first time in more than a year that a rise was registered on an annual and quarterly basis.  However, Malcolm Penn of the Future Horizons chip consultancy said the revenue growth figures were not matched by an uptick in unit shipments.  He added, “this is not the start of the next upturn — we have a long way to go before we start getting into the shortage part of the cycle.”  Geoff Blaber, a CCS Insight analyst, noted “we need to be realistic.  If it wasn’t for that strength in high-performance compute, we wouldn’t be talking so positively about a turnaround in semiconductors.”  Financial Times

Microsoft will store European cloud customers’ personal data within EU.  Microsoft has announced that it will store all personal data of its European cloud customers inside the “EU data boundary.”  The decision to not allow data transfers abroad is seen as a move by the cloud provider to comply with privacy regulations that vary across jurisdictions.  In addition, Microsoft said the EU storage policy will extend to “pseudonymized personal data” found in system logs that are not directly linked to an individual.  Microsoft and other cloud providers have been subject to fines in the EU, whose General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) privacy law is the strictest in the world.  Last year, Meta was fined $1.3 billion by the Irish Data Protection Commission over transfers to the U.S.  The Record

ANALYSIS- Drones are transforming war.  They’re cheap, effective, lethal and they work 24/7. Drones bought from hobby stores can enable a small irregular force like Hamas and the Houthis to do serious damage to a bigger, richer adversary.  The U.S. and its allies are trying to devise ways to defend against them without deploying multi-million-dollar weapons systems. In future, massed drones guided by artificial intelligence will be used to swarm targets.  Wall Street Journal

Palantir agrees to supply Israeli military with technology.  U.S. tech giant Palantir Technologies has announced a “strategic partnership” with the Israel Ministry of Defense to supply technologies to its war effort. Presumably Palantir will offer Israel its Artificial Intelligence Platform, an “intelligence and decision-making system” to analyze enemy targets and help planners draw up battle plans. Bloomberg  Ctech

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Ken Hughes, Elaine Shannon, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, Ryan Simons, and Tiffany Krueger contributed to this report.

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion in The Cipher Brief