Report for Monday, January 13, 2025

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Monday, January 13, 2025

Final draft of Gaza truce deal presented to sides after 'breakthrough'

Mike Waltz calls for Ukraine to lower conscription age; says Trump and Putin to speak soon

Biden’s sanctions on the Russian oil industry will hit hard because they’re not just about oil

Denmark sent the Trump team private messages on Greenland

US imposes export controls on chips for AI to counter China

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

What will follow the year of ISIS’ Resurrection? The resurgence of ISIS has raised alarm following two key developments: the New Orleans New Year’s Day attack, which killed 14 and was inspired by ISIS, and Syria’s destabilization after President Bashar al-Assad's overthrow. Experts warn that ISIS is exploiting global fractures and the power vacuum in Syria to regain momentum. The group continues to inspire lone-wolf attacks, as seen in New Orleans, and rebuilds operational capacity amid declining counterterrorism focus. Concerns grow over ISIS finding a foothold in Syria, with doubts about Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s ability to control territory and suppress jihadist factions. Additionally, instability in Kurdish regions and global events, such as the Gaza war, amplify radicalization risks. Experts emphasize the need for international collaboration to counter evolving threats, warning that complacency could enable coordinated attacks. While large-scale operations like 9/11 remain challenging, smaller, decentralized attacks could dominate ISIS’s strategy, posing persistent threats in 2025 and beyond. The Cipher Brief

Opinion: How Trump Could End the Ukraine War.Ambassador Kurt Volker believes that President-elect Donald Trump’s approach to ending Russia’s war on Ukraine should prioritize stopping the violence over intricate territorial negotiations. Volker suggests Trump should firmly demand that Vladimir Putin cease hostilities and offer a meeting only after the war ends. While Ukraine is ready to negotiate, Volker underscores the challenge lies in convincing Putin to abandon his goal of erasing Ukraine’s sovereignty. Volker emphasizes non-recognition of Russian-occupied territories and long-term diplomatic efforts to regain them. He advocates leveraging U.S. energy production to weaken Russia’s economy and enforcing stricter sanctions. He also highlights Russia’s vulnerabilities, including economic strain, manpower losses, and reliance on outdated military equipment. The focus, he argues, should remain on halting the war and minimizing further bloodshed, with the potential of increased aid to Ukraine if Russia resists peace efforts. The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Final draft of Gaza truce deal presented to sides after 'breakthrough.’ Mediators in Doha presented a final draft on Monday of a cease-fire and hostage release agreement to Israel and Hamas after a midnight breakthrough in talks. The proposal, involving a three-stage framework, was crafted with input from U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Brett McGurk, along with Qatari and Egyptian officials. The agreement aims to end the conflict that began in October 2023 and resulted in over 46,000 deaths in Gaza. Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20 is seen as a critical deadline, with his envoy warning of “hell to pay” if hostages are not released before then. Optimism surrounds the talks, with Hamas signaling a shift toward agreement, though Israeli officials remain cautious, citing Hamas's past refusals. Meanwhile, fighting persists, with Israeli strikes in Gaza and continued Hamas attacks. The next 24 hours are expected to determine whether the deal progresses to implementation. Reuters Jerusalem Post

Top Israeli security officials go to Doha for ceasefire talks, raising hopes deal is imminent.  Mossad chief David Barnea and other senior Israeli security and policy officials traveled to Qatar Sunday for a possible endgame on the Gaza crisis.  Biden administration officials have been pushing hard for a deal that would release the hostages in the final days of President Joe Biden’s term, cementing his legacy before Donald Trump is inaugurated Jan. 20. Biden national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union” that Brett M. McGurk, the White House Middle East coordinator, was in Doha, drafting an agreement to present to the two sides. “We are very, very close, and yet being very close still means we’re far because until you actually get across the finish line we’re not there,” Sullivan said. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said on “CBS Sunday Morning” that “we’re very close to a cease-fire and hostage agreement.” Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Sunday about the deal, according to the White House and Mr. Netanyahu’s office. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy-in-waiting, met Qatari prime minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani in Doha on Friday and Netanyahu in Israel Saturday. Several key points remain unresolved, importantly, Israel’s troop withdrawal from Gaza and Netanyahu’s unwillingness to declare an end of the war, the New York Times reported.  Associated Press New York Times  Politico 

Biden pushes Netanyahu to approve cease-fire deal before Trump inauguration. In a phone call Sunday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Joe Biden "stressed the immediate need for a ceasefire in Gaza and return of the hostages with a surge in humanitarian aid enabled by a stoppage in the fighting under the deal," the White House said. The pair discussed "the fundamentally changed regional circumstances following the ceasefire deal in Lebanon, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, and the weakening of Iran’s power in the region," the White House said. Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on CNN's "State of the Union" that Biden was getting daily updates on talks in Doha, where the U.S. and Arab mediators are conducting indirect talks between Israel and Hamas. “We are still determined to use every day we have in office to get this done," Sullivan said. He held out hope of a final agreement before Biden leaves office, but he cautioned, "Hamas, in particular, remains intransigent."  Vice President-elect JD Vance told the "Fox News Sunday" program in an interview taped on Saturday that he expects a deal to be announced in the final days of the Biden administration, maybe in the last day or two. Reuters  The White House 

Trump's man in the Middle East meets Netanyahu. President-elect Donald Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Saturday, and afterwards, Netanyahu sent the head of the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency and other senior officials to Qatar to "advance" ceasefire talks between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas, mediated by Egypt, Qatar and the U.S.  The Hostages and Missing Families Forum Headquarters welcomed Netanyahu's decision as a "historic opportunity."  The day before Witkoff meet Netanyahu, he went to Doha and met the Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. Reuters reported that Egyptian security sources said that Witkoff assured Egyptian and Qatari mediators that the U.S. would continue to work towards a fair deal to end the war soon.  On Saturday, amid hopes that the talks would bring an end to the war, eight more people, including two women and two children, died in an Israeli airstrike on a  school-turned-shelter in Jabalia in northern Gaza. The Israeli military said the strike had targeted Hamas militants.  Another five people were killed and others wounded in more Israeli strikes across Gaza. Reuters  

Will Israel occupy Syrian territory permanently? Thousands of Syrians who live in places recently seized by Israel fear the Israeli troops are there to stay. Israeli troops have detained people and opened fire during at least two protests, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an independent monitor.  New York Times  

Gaza war deaths top 46,000.  More than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed and nearly 110,000 wounded in the Israel-Hamas war over the 15-month war, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. The Israeli military says it has killed over 17,000 militants and blames Hamas for using civilians as shields.  Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have survived Israel’s campaign but have been forced into tent camps along the coast, many without adequate protection from cold or enough food and other necessities. Associated Press ABC   

Hamas Has Another Sinwar. And He’s Rebuilding. Hamas, under the leadership of Mohammed Sinwar, is rebuilding after significant losses following Israel’s 15-month campaign targeting the group in Gaza. Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed’s older brother and the architect of Hamas’s October 2023 attacks, was killed by Israeli forces, but Mohammed has taken charge, focusing on recruiting new fighters and utilizing unexploded ordnance for improvised weapons. Israel claims to have killed 17,000 Hamas fighters and dismantled much of the group’s military structure, yet persistent hit-and-run attacks continue to strain Israeli forces. Meanwhile, Hamas demands a ceasefire that ensures its survival, complicating peace talks. The U.S. and Israel face challenges in addressing Hamas’s enduring influence while debating governance plans for Gaza post-conflict. Despite extensive destruction in Gaza and heavy casualties on both sides, Hamas has managed to maintain a foothold, prolonging the conflict and raising questions about the feasibility of Israel's goal to fully dismantle the group. Wall Street Journal

Israel targets Iran’s ‘last proxy.’ Israel has launched extensive airstrikes on Yemen’s Houthi militants, now seen as Iran’s last proxy actively targeting Israel. Following Hamas and Hezbollah's setbacks, the Houthis have emerged as vocal defenders of the Palestinian cause, attacking Israel with drones and missiles and disrupting maritime trade. Despite Israeli strikes on ports, power stations, and other infrastructure, the Houthis have sustained their operations. Analysts highlight the challenges of neutralizing the group, particularly in its mountainous Saada stronghold. Israel’s long-term strategy may involve intensified attacks, targeting leadership figures like Abdul Malik al-Houthi, and supporting rival factions to undermine Houthi control. However, such efforts risk exacerbating Yemen’s humanitarian crisis, with devastating impacts on civilians already struggling with limited food and fuel supplies. The conflict underscores the complexity of Israel’s expanding regional engagements, as the Houthis leverage their resistance posture to consolidate domestic and regional support. Financial Times

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Mike Waltz calls for Ukraine to lower conscription age; says Trump and Putin to speak soon. Incoming U.S. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz urged Ukraine to address manpower shortages by lowering its conscription age from 25 to 18, highlighting the country’s need to “be all in for democracy” if it expects continued global support. Speaking on ABC News “This Week,” Waltz emphasized that stabilizing the front lines is essential for pursuing a negotiated end to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Waltz also said that President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to hold a phone call "in the coming days and weeks" to discuss potential peace efforts. While Moscow has acknowledged Trump’s openness to dialogue, it dismissed leaked peace terms, including delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership and freezing the front lines. Waltz did not confirm Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s inclusion in talks but warned that achieving peace would require time and effort. He called a full Russian withdrawal, including from Crimea, unrealistic, underscoring the importance of dialogue and negotiation. Bloomberg Financial Times Politico Kyiv Independent Ukrainska Pravda 

Biden and Zelensky discuss US support for Ukraine, sanctions, air defenses. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky praised new U.S. and UK sanctions targeting Russia’s oil sector, emphasizing their crippling effect on Moscow’s war financing. "These measures deliver a significant blow to the financial foundation of Russia's war machine by disrupting its entire supply chain," Zelensky wrote on X. The U.S. sanctioned over 180 ships and major oil firms Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, which the UK also targeted, describing their profits as “lining Vladimir Putin’s war chest." Zelensky highlighted the sanctions' potential to slash Russia’s revenues by billions monthly, hastening peace. During their Friday discussion, Zelensky also thanked U.S. President Joe Biden, lauding Washington's leadership in uniting global support for Ukraine. They addressed air defense enhancements, including the effectiveness of U.S.-supplied Patriot missiles. "He [Putin] must feel the cost of his war by seeing it directly undermine his own pockets," Zelensky noted. Reuters Reuters The Guardian

Zelensky calls on allies to honor promises on arms supplies to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged allies to honor commitments to provide weapons, including air defense systems, as Russian attacks persist. Writing Sunday on Telegram, Zelensky highlighted those Russian forces had launched hundreds of strikes over the past week, using nearly 700 aerial bombs and 600 attack drones. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 redirected via electronic warfare. Zelensky stressed that Russia’s aerial superiority enables ongoing aggression and criticized delays in implementing NATO and Ramstein agreements. He also discussed licensing Ukraine to produce air defense systems with the U.S. and partner nations this week. Reuters

Boris Johnson brands Vladimir Putin a ‘f——— idiot’ over imperial ambitions. Boris Johnson criticized Vladimir Putin as a “f——— idiot” over his imperial ambitions, declaring, “No more empire, Vladimir.” Speaking to Baltic news outlet Delfi on Saturday, the former British prime minister described Putin’s actions as “archaic and barbaric,” adding, “Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania – none of these countries are part of the Russian imperium anymore. And nor is Ukraine. It’s over – over, over, over.” Johnson urged Western leaders to renew efforts for Ukraine’s NATO membership, arguing, “We will not solve the Ukraine problem without Article 5 guarantees or long-term NATO membership.” He criticized NATO members, particularly Germany, for underfunding defense while expecting U.S. support. He also revealed delays in British arms deliveries to Ukraine before the 2022 invasion, blaming “stupid” objections from officials. Johnson, an outspoken supporter of Volodymyr Zelensky, emphasized decisive action, warning, “The West is retreating again.” The Telegraph

Diary of a Dead North Korean Soldier Reveals Grisly Battlefield Tactics.  North Korean soldiers, sent to Russia to support its war against Ukraine, are suffering heavy losses and relying on crude, sacrificial tactics. A diary recovered from a slain soldier, Jong Kyong Hong, revealed loyalty to Kim Jong Un and battlefield strategies such as using one soldier as “bait” to lure Ukrainian drones. Over 4,000 North Koreans have been killed or injured since December, with their indoctrination leaving no concept of surrender. Deployed in Kursk since October, these troops were initially used for logistics but are now in front-line combat, often unprepared and poorly integrated. Ukraine’s special forces report reckless maneuvers, such as running across open fields without armored support. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky estimates tens of thousands of North Koreans could follow. Experts note their actions are rooted in ideological fervor, with handwritten notes glorifying sacrifice for Kim and detailing tactics to survive under fire. Wall Street Journal

Ukraine releases the first testimony from captured North Korean soldiers. Ukraine has revealed testimony from two North Korean soldiers captured in the Kursk region, marking the first public confirmation of Pyongyang's involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine. Captured on January 9 and transported to Kyiv, the soldiers were interrogated with assistance from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service due to language barriers. One soldier, born in 2005, claimed he believed he was sent for training, while the other, born in 1999, served as a sniper and corroborated this account. Both men highlighted inadequate preparation, with only one week of training before deployment. Fake Russian documents were found on one soldier, suggesting attempts to obscure their identities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that capturing North Korean soldiers was difficult as Russian and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) forces often execute wounded troops to erase evidence. This testimony underscores increasing North Korean military support for Russia, with over 11,000 DPRK troops reportedly deployed to Russian-held territories. NK News Washington Post Associated Press Politico EU New York Times Yonhap News Agency Associated Press New York Times

Zelensky says he's ready to exchange North Korean soldiers for Ukrainians held in Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that Kyiv is ready to exchange captured North Korean soldiers for Ukrainians held in Russia. “Ukraine is ready to hand over Kim Jong Un's soldiers to him if he can organize their exchange for our warriors who are being held captive in Russia,” Zelensky said. He noted that one of the captured soldiers expressed willingness to remain in Ukraine, while the other preferred returning to North Korea. Zelensky said that for North Korean soldiers who did not wish to return home, there may be other options available. “Those who express a desire to bring peace closer by spreading the truth about this war in the Korean (language) will be given that opportunity,” he said. Reuters

Ukraine's special forces claim to repel North Korean assault in Russia's Kursk Oblast, killing 17 soldiers. Ukraine's Special Operations Forces claimed Monday to have repelled a North Korean assault in Russia's Kursk Oblast, killing 17 soldiers. The battle, lasting from morning to night, highlighted North Korea's lack of modern warfare training, with South Korea’s National Intelligence Service reporting 3,000 North Korean casualties since last fall. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the capture of two North Korean soldiers, now in custody. Reports suggest North Korean troops fear retaliation if captured. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine losing ground on the battlefield as Trump team pushes ceasefire. Ukraine faces mounting challenges as Donald Trump prepares to re-enter the White House, with Russian forces advancing in Donetsk and Ukrainian troops outnumbered. Military spokesman Viktor Tregubov described Kurakhove as largely in ruins but still contested. Trump’s Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, hopes for a solution within 100 days, but experts like Mick Ryan predict that Vladimir Putin will resist negotiations while maintaining battlefield momentum. Kyiv prioritizes a “just peace,” with President Volodymyr Zelensky seeking direct talks with Trump. However, analysts like Arkady Moshes argue that Russia seeks total victory, not compromise, complicating peace prospects amid ongoing hostilities. CNN

Ukraine says it has hit one of Russia’s largest oil refineries in a drone strike. Ukraine claimed responsibility for a drone strike on Russia’s Taneco oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, on Saturday, sparking a fire at the facility over 700 miles into Russian territory. Social media footage showed flames and evacuations, though local authorities denied a fire, attributing the scenes to a safety drill. Lieutenant Andrii Kovalenko emphasized the refinery's strategic importance, citing its role in supplying fuel to Russia’s military. This marks the second attack on the refinery within a year; a 2024 strike damaged its primary processing unit and targeted other facilities in Tatarstan, underscoring Ukraine’s efforts to disrupt Russian war logistics. CNN

Battles Rage Inside Russia, With Waves of Tanks, Drones and North Koreans. The battle for Russia’s Kursk region, a critical point in Ukraine's strategy, rages on with ferocious intensity as both sides prepare for potential negotiations under Donald Trump’s impending presidency. Ukraine seeks to retain Kursk as leverage while creating a buffer zone for Sumy. President Volodymyr Zelensky called it "one of the biggest wins...throughout the war." Russia’s reliance on disciplined North Korean reinforcements has intensified the fighting, described by Ukrainian soldiers as waves of relentless assaults. Sgt. Oleksandr compared the carnage to Bakhmut, saying, “You look and can’t fully grasp where you are, seeing every day how many people we destroy.” While Ukraine conducts counterattacks, gains remain modest, with Russia regaining ground and leveraging its superior resources. Military analysts warn of Ukraine stretching its forces, but soldiers argue the campaign draws elite Russian units away from other fronts, highlighting its strategic significance. The conflict underscores the mounting stakes amid geopolitical uncertainty. New York Times Washington Post

The FSB town where officers lived in luxury… and fled in haste. Ukrainian forces gained access to “Little Monaco,” a luxurious housing complex for Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) agency in the Russian city of Sudzha, after a cross-border offensive in August 2024. The abandoned residences revealed extensive documents detailing FSB operations, including counterintelligence efforts, monitoring of locals, and border control activities. Vitaliy, a Ukrainian intelligence officer, noted the officers “lived very well,” with high salaries and premium amenities provided by Moscow. Significant findings included photos of agents, potentially aiding in identifying operatives abroad, and surveillance records on pro-Ukrainian locals. InformNapalm, a Ukrainian volunteer intelligence group, played a key role, with leader Mykhailo Makaruk emphasizing efforts to disrupt FSB capabilities. Despite the insights, an intelligence source cautioned, “It’s not like we captured Lubyanka,” the FSB headquarters in Moscow, suggesting the discoveries are tactical rather than transformative. The Times

The New Drones Boosting Russia's Advances on The Battlefield In Ukraine. Russia is deploying fiber-optic drones in Ukraine, significantly enhancing battlefield capabilities by bypassing electronic jamming. Tethered to operators by lightweight cables, these drones maintain stable connections over long distances, allowing for reconnaissance and precision strikes. Unlike traditional drones, they are harder to detect and disrupt, presenting new challenges for Ukrainian forces. The drones' effectiveness lies in their ability to fly low, avoid detection, and strike accurately. However, drawbacks include susceptibility to small arms fire, limited range, and operational challenges in forested or obstructed areas. Ukrainian forces are adapting, using nets and small arms to counter them while accelerating the development of similar drones. Experts highlight the tactical shift these drones represent, with Russia gaining an edge in electronic warfare. Ukrainian officials, including defense innovation leaders, stress the urgency of neutralizing this advantage as both sides intensify fighting. The technology illustrates evolving strategies in this pivotal phase of the war. RFE/RL  The Telegraph

Germany to deploy Patriot air defense systems in Poland to protect aid center for Ukraine. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius confirmed that Germany will deploy two Patriot air defense systems and 200 soldiers to Poland in late January to protect a key logistics hub for military aid to Ukraine. The Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport, critical for Western aid, also hosts Norway's NASAMS and F-35 jets, underscoring NATO's commitment to securing supply chains for Ukraine's defense. This operation, part of NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defense framework, highlights the hub’s strategic proximity to Ukraine’s border. Militarnyi

Russian forces advance towards Ukraine’s Dnipro region. Russian forces are advancing towards Ukraine's Dnipro region, bypassing Pokrovsk to avoid urban warfare. “They understand that they will lose a lot of their forces trying to take Pokrovsk, so they have decided to pursue a different strategy and approach from the south and go around it,” Andriy Cherniak, a senior Ukrainian military intelligence official, said on Sunday. “They will try to cut off all the supplies to Pokrovsk so that our forces leave there.” Russian troops are now just 6.5 kilometers from the Dnipropetrovsk region highway. The region includes Pavlograd, a major military base, and Dnipro, Ukraine's fourth-largest city. “They are trying to get maximum territory so that when their forces are eventually exhausted, they have something to negotiate with,” Cherniak said. Financial Times

A Russian Field Army Set Up Its HQ In A Building Near Pokrovsk. A Ukrainian Munition Brought Down The Building. Ukrainian forces struck the headquarters of Russia’s 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army in Novohrodivka, collapsing part of the building in a bid to disrupt Russian command and control. This attack, part of a series targeting Russian posts, aims to slow Russia’s offensive toward Pokrovsk, a key Ukrainian stronghold in Donetsk Oblast. Novohrodivka’s proximity to Pokrovsk enables Russian forces to launch indirect attacks but also exposes them to Ukrainian counterstrikes. The escalating battle highlights Ukraine’s reliance on surveillance drones and precision strikes to weaken Russian advances as the war nears its fourth year. Casualty details remain unconfirmed. Forbes

For The First Time Since 2022, Ukraine May Have A Tank Advantage Over Russia. For the first time since 2022, Ukraine may have a tank advantage over Russia along parts of the 800-mile front line, thanks to superior drone tactics. Ukrainian drones disrupt Russian tank operations, forcing them to fire from camouflaged positions miles from the front, reducing their effectiveness. Meanwhile, Ukrainian tanks operate more freely, engaging Russian forces directly. However, Russia's advanced fiber-optic drones in priority sectors like Kursk counter this advantage, while infantry shortages limit Ukraine's progress despite its armored edge. Forbes

Russia says it captured a settlement near Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed control Saturday of Shevchenko, near the logistical hub of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region, as part of its ongoing westward advance. Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled 46 of 56 Russian attacks in the area, with 10 clashes ongoing. Russian strikes targeted Ukrainian airfields and infrastructure while shelling near Pokrovsk killed one civilian and injured four. Ukraine has not confirmed Shevchenko's loss, and independent sources indicate Kurakhove, another key town, is also under Russian control. Reuters

Russia says it has taken control of two villages in eastern Ukraine. Russian troops have taken control of the villages of Yantarne in the Donetsk region and Kalynove in the Kharkiv region, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Sunday. Separately, the ministry said that over the past 24 hours, Russian forces have carried out strikes on Ukrainian military airfields, personnel, and vehicles in 139 locations using its air force, drones, missiles, and artillery. Reuters

Russian troops disguise themselves as civilians in Toretsk. Russian troops in Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast, have been disguising themselves as civilians, according to Ukraine's 28th Brigade. Spotted by aerial reconnaissance, these actions, including reconnaissance and sabotage, breach the laws of war. Ukrainian forces noted that identical clothing, behavior, or visible weapons often expose the disguises. While this tactic complicates Ukrainian operations, they emphasized adherence to ethical conduct, contrasting with Russian practices of indiscriminate attacks. Ukrainska Pravda

Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 1, injure 17 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day killed one civilian and injured 17, regional authorities reported on Monday. Strikes targeted multiple oblasts, including Sumy, where drone debris caused a fire at a children's center, and Kherson, with 10 injured. In Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, shelling killed a 70-year-old man. Kyiv Independent

Russia says Ukrainian drones injure three in Tambov region. Ukraine launched drone attacks across Russia early Saturday, including the Tambov region, injuring three people and damaging two residential houses in Kotovsk. Russia's Defense Ministry reported intercepting and destroying 85 Ukrainian drones overnight across multiple regions. Airports in Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, and Ulyanovsk temporarily suspended flights for safety. Ukraine, meanwhile, said 74 Russian drones targeted its territory, with 47 intercepted. Both sides continue intensifying drone warfare. Reuters

Thousands without power after Russian strike on Ukraine's Kherson, officials say. Russian shelling in Kherson left 23,000 households without power after damaging power infrastructure in the Dniprovskiy district. Over the past 24 hours, Kherson and around 50 nearby settlements endured shelling that hit social infrastructure and residential areas, damaging multiple buildings. Governor Oleksandr Prokudin detailed the destruction on Sunday. Reuters

After F-16 success, Ukraine seeks F-35 fighter jets. Ukraine aspires to acquire F-35 fighter jets to modernize its military aviation, but significant challenges make this unlikely in the near term. The F-35’s high cost, complex technology, and strict access controls require NATO membership, advanced infrastructure, and training capabilities. While Ukraine has successfully deployed F-16s and will soon receive French Mirage 2000-5Fs, integrating F-35s could escalate tensions with Russia. Current geopolitical and financial constraints mean Ukraine must focus on accessible technologies and strengthening alliances. Bulgarian Military

Russia forms an emergency task force as the Kerch Strait oil spill spreads. Russia has mobilized an emergency task force, including Emergency Situations Minister Alexander Kurenkov, to address a persistent oil spill in the Kerch Strait. Fuel oil leakage from the Volgoneft-239 tanker, damaged during a storm, has contaminated over 155,000 tons of sand and soil near the port of Taman. The spill, which began a month ago, has spread to Crimea’s Sevastopol and as far as Berdyansk Spit, raising regional concerns. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry criticized Russia’s delayed response and called for sanctions. The spill highlights environmental risks in the Kerch Strait, a vital shipping route and point of tension since Russia's annexation of Crimea. Associated Press

British troops ‘should join post-war peacekeeping force in Ukraine.’ Former UK defense secretaries Grant Shapps and Gavin Williamson have called for British troops to participate in a post-war peacekeeping force in Ukraine, emphasizing the need for strong security guarantees. Shapps stated, “British troops contributing to a post-war peacekeeping force would undoubtedly be a welcome move, but it barely scratches the surface of what Ukraine truly needs,” urging the UK to support Ukraine’s NATO membership. President Volodymyr Zelensky plans to discuss this with Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who faces criticism for his delayed visit to Ukraine. Williamson stressed the importance of reliable partners ensuring Ukraine’s long-term security. The Telegraph

German Defense Minister denies Scholz blocked proposal for $3 billion arms package for Ukraine. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius denied reports that Chancellor Olaf Scholz blocked a proposed €3 billion military aid package for Ukraine, stating that the decision awaits political approval. The package, backed by Pistorius and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, includes Iris-T air defense batteries, howitzers, and artillery ammunition. Scholz reportedly raised concerns about financial obligations before early federal elections. Despite criticism for his cautious approach, Germany remains Ukraine's second-largest military donor, recently providing nearly 50 guided missiles for the Iris-T system. Kyiv Independent

Fico refused Kyiv's offers to help with gas supplies, Zelensky says. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico for rejecting Ukraine’s offers to assist Slovakia following the halt of Russian gas transit through Ukrainian territory. “We offered assistance… but Fico arrogantly refused,” Zelensky said on Sunday, accusing Fico of shifting blame to Ukraine and relying on “PR, lies, and loud accusations.” He condemned Fico’s threat to cut humanitarian aid to Ukraine as opening “a second energy front” at Vladimir Putin’s behest. Zelensky added, “Fico bet on Moscow, not his country, not Europe, and certainly not common sense,” and called for U.S.-European collaboration to diversify energy supplies. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine tried to attack TurkStream pipeline infrastructure in southern Russia, Moscow says. Russia claimed Monday it downed nine Ukrainian drones targeting the TurkStream pipeline’s compressor station in Krasnodar, southern Russia. The facility sustained minor damage but remains operational, with no casualties reported. TurkStream is a key route for Russian gas to Turkey and Europe. Ukraine has not commented, and Reuters could not verify the incident. Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, Jan. 10-Sunday, Jan. 12. SUNDAY–Ukrainian forces conducted a high-precision airstrike on the Russian 2nd Combined Arms Army command post in Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast, on Sunday. Ukrainian strikes targeting command posts, including those of the 8th Combined Arms Army and 3rd Army Corps, aim to disrupt Russian command and logistics across Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian forces captured two North Korean soldiers in Kursk Oblast on Thursday, with reports of poor conditions and significant losses among North Korean forces. SATURDAY–Ukrainian forces captured two North Korean POWs in Kursk Oblast, collaborating with South Korean intelligence due to language barriers. North Korean forces are using large-scale assault tactics in Ukraine, incurring heavy casualties while facing difficulties countering Ukrainian drone strikes. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to push pre-war demands to isolate Ukraine and weaken NATO, aiming to enforce these in potential negotiations with Western leaders. Ukrainian forces may have targeted a Tatarstan oil refinery with a drone strike Saturday, but conflicting reports leave the event unclear. FRIDAY–-Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition and drone storage warehouse in Rostov Oblast, using drones and Neptune missiles to overwhelm air defenses and target reconnaissance drone supplies. The Kremlin said it is willing to hold talks with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump without preconditions but reiterated its unchanged demands for Ukraine's capitulation. The United States, United Kingdom, and Japan imposed new sanctions on Russia, targeting energy companies, vessels, and organizations linked to North Korea’s support for Russia. The European Union transferred €3 billion to Ukraine as part of a $50 billion initiative funded by profits from frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine's priority expenditures. A joint investigation confirmed that at least 88,055 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine since February 2022.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War Saturday-Institute for the Study of War Friday-Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Trump can use Russia’s space program to end the war in Ukraine. Mark R. Whittington argues that Donald Trump could leverage Russia’s declining space program to end the war in Ukraine. Russia's space ambitions, such as a new station and lunar base with China, face significant hurdles like sanctions, financial constraints, and talent loss due to the war. Whittington suggests Trump could offer Russia a role in the U.S.-led Artemis lunar program if Vladimir Putin agrees to peace. This would grant Russia technological and economic benefits, reintegrate it into international partnerships, and weaken its alliance with China. Whittington highlights the opportunity for mutual gain and urges Russia to prioritize peace over ruin. The Hill

Opinion: Ukraine can join NATO — if allies are willing to be bold. ​​Luke Coffey argues that NATO membership for Ukraine is essential for lasting peace and security in Eastern Europe, even if parts of Ukraine remain under Russian occupation. He suggests NATO can admit Ukraine by amending Article 6 to exclude occupied territories from Article 5 guarantees, similar to past precedents. Coffey emphasizes Ukraine's potential pledge to resolve territorial disputes diplomatically, comparing it to West Germany’s NATO accession in 1954. He dismisses claims that territorial disputes block NATO membership, noting cases like Estonia and Croatia. Amending NATO's approach would counter Russia's tactic of using occupation to veto membership. Politico EU

THE AMERICAS

The Bomb Is Back as the Risk of Nuclear War Enters a New Age. The risk of nuclear conflict is resurging as arms-control treaties collapse, arsenals expand, and alliances shift. The U.S. and Russia are considering bolstering nuclear forces, while China’s stockpile is projected to triple by 2035, with over 600 intercontinental missiles already capable of striking the U.S. Moscow’s doctrine now broadens the grounds for potential nuclear use. Meanwhile, Iran’s nuclear ambitions and North Korea’s growing arsenal are prompting calls for deterrence, including from South Korea. President John F. Kennedy’s 1963 warning of unregulated proliferation remains prescient as global tensions test longstanding disarmament commitments. Wall Street Journal

Trump advisors Steve Bannon and Elon Musk at each other’s throats.  Steve Bannon, a leader of Donald Trump’s MAGA movement, has condemned Elon Musk, a major contributor to Trump’s reelection, and has  promised to drive him out of he White House.   In an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera newspaper,  Bannon said of Musk, “He is a truly evil guy, a very bad guy. I made it my personal thing to take this guy down,” Before, because he put money in, I was prepared to tolerate it – I’m not prepared to tolerate it anymore.”  “I will have Elon Musk run out of here by inauguration day,” Bannon said. “He will not have full access to the White House.”  The Guardian  

Biden’s sanctions on the Russian oil industry will hit hard because they’re not just about oil. The U.S. Treasury Department levied sanctions against two major Russian oil producers— Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas — plus 183 vessels, and dozens of oil traders, oilfield service providers, insurance companies, and energy officials. Daleep Singh, Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics and Deputy Director of the National Economic Council, called the blacklisting “the most significant sanctions yet on Russia’s energy sector, by far the largest source of revenue for Putin’s war.”   Officials said the United Kingdom (UK) is joining the U.S. in sanctioning the two Russian oil producers. The Biden administration intends the sweeping sanctions to scare off third-country oil traders, shipping companies, ports and banks that have been helping Russia sell oil on the global market, by threatening those businesses with losing their access to the global banking system and trading in dollars. Russia will work hard to circumvent the sanctions, the officials acknowledged, but elaborate subterfuges carry a cost.  “That cost helps serve our purpose, which is that ultimately less money ends up in the Kremlin's coffers for them to buy tanks,” an official said. “So for every tanker they have to buy to replace the 183 that we are designating today, that's less tanks that they can buy for their war of choice in Ukraine.” Bloomberg Reuters Bloomberg Washington Post Reuters  Foreign Policy  Reuters White House  

Sanctioned Tankers Carrying Russia Oil Now Idling Off China. Three tankers carrying over 2 million barrels of Russian ESPO crude oil are idling off China’s Shandong coast after being sanctioned by the U.S. on Jan. 10. The vessels, Huihai Pacific, Mermar, and Olia, were en route to Shandong ports but diverted offshore following sanctions targeting Russian oil exports. The sanctions also affected several tankers and traders active in ESPO crude, a preferred grade for China’s independent refiners. Shandong Port Group has since restricted dock access for sanctioned vessels. The U.S. sanctions are the most aggressive measures against Russian oil since the Ukraine invasion. Bloomberg

Biden extends temporary protected status to 900,000 Venezuelans and Salvadorans.   President Joe Biden’s order will enable 600,000 Venezuelans and 200,000 Salvadorans to remain in the U.S. 18 more months. The Department of Homeland Security cited  the “inhumane” government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, sworn in Friday for his third six-year term, widely regarded as illegitimate. DHS issued protections for 100,000 people from Ukraine and 1,900 from Sudan. Over the last several years, Venezuelans have been among the largest groups of migrants crossing the US-Mexico border illegally. About 1 million people from 17 countries live in the US under TPS. Bloomberg Reuters 

Venezuela’s Maduro gets no respect.   Almost no one in Venezuela or abroad sees Venezuela’s authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro, sworn in Friday, as a legitimate leader.  He is widely seen as having lost a July election in a landslide. President-elect Donald Trump referred to his opposition as “freedom fighters” in a social-media post last week and warned Maduro not to harm them. Trump called opposition candidate Edmundo González—who fled to Spain in September—as Venezuela’s president-elect. On Friday, the Biden administration raised the reward for Maduro, an indicted narcotrafficker, from $15 million to $25 million and sanctioned other  Venezuelan officials. The European Union, U.K. and Canada also on Friday expanded sanctions against Venezuelan officials.  Wall Street Journal Reuters Reuters New York Times 

Biden puts $25 Million price on Venezuela strongman Maduro’s head.  The State Department increased the reward to up to $25 million each for information leading to the arrests and/or convictions of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro, who was sworn in as president last Friday, and Maduro’s Minister of Interior Diosdado Cabello. The U.S. added a new reward offer of up to $15 million for Maduro’s Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López. The rewards are based on federal narcotrafficking indictments announced in March 2020.  “Maduro and Cabello will now be the second and third individuals in the history of the narcotics reward program to have the maximum reward amount of $25 million offered,” a White House official said. Treasury imposed sanctions on eight members of the Venezuelan security forces and political figures who have helped Maduro stay in power illegally. With today’s actions, the U.S. has individually sanctioned 187 current or former Maduro supporters.  Treasury Department officials said similar actions were being taken Friday by Canada, the European Union, and the United Kingdom. Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez considered returning to Venezuela to challenge Maduro but his ally Maria Corina Machado warned him Friday it was too dangerous.  New York Times  The State Department  Reuters Associated Press

Trump’s Panama Canal Threat Stirs a Nationalist Outcry: ‘Yankees Go Home!’ Donald Trump’s call for the U.S. to reclaim the Panama Canal has sparked nationalist protests in Panama, where the canal symbolizes sovereignty and economic pride. President José Raúl Mulino rejected the notion as “non-negotiable,” while protests included burning effigies of Trump and chanting anti-American slogans. Panamanians commemorate Martyrs’ Day on Jan. 9, marking 21 lives lost in 1964 riots over U.S. control of the canal. The canal, transferred to Panama in 1999, generates over $5 billion annually, bolstering its economy. Trump’s stance reflects concerns over Chinese influence, but Panamanian officialss denounce his threats as a step backward in U.S.-Panama relations. Wall Street Journal

Panama Canal administrator pushes back against Trump’s assertions of Chinese meddling. Panama Canal administrator Ricaurte Vásquez rejected President-elect Donald Trump’s claims of Chinese control over the canal and affirmed its commitment to neutrality and Panamanian management. Vásquez clarified that Chinese companies operating nearby ports are part of a Hong Kong consortium selected in a 1997 bidding process, alongside U.S. and Taiwanese firms. Trump’s suggestions of U.S. military action to retake the canal were dismissed by Vásquez as baseless. Some 70% of the sea traffic that crosses the Panama Canal leaves or goes to U.S. ports. The canal charges uniform fees under a neutrality treaty, with no special treatment for U.S.-flagged ships except expedited passage for warships. Associated Press 

Canada foreign minister won't run to replace Trudeau, cites US tariff threat. Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly announced she will not run to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, prioritizing preparations for potential U.S. tariffs under Donald Trump’s presidency. Joly joins Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc in stepping aside to focus on official duties. Trudeau plans to step down, with a new leader to be announced March 9. Reuters

Biden awards Pope Francis medal of freedom, highest US civilian honor. President Joe Biden awarded Pope Francis the Presidential Medal of Freedom with Distinction, the first during Biden’s presidency, recognizing his service to the poor and efforts for global peace. Biden, who canceled a planned trip to Rome due to California fires, spoke with Francis by phone on Saturday, lauding his advocacy for the vulnerable and his role as a global moral leader. The medal honors individuals contributing significantly to societal values, security, or world peace. Biden praised Francis as the "People’s Pope" and highlighted his unique leadership. Both leaders have faced challenges amid ongoing global conflicts, including Russia’s war on Ukraine. Reuters

Biden administration issues new rule on overseas sales of advanced chips.  The Commerce Department announced much-anticipated controls Monday that would restrict sales of advanced computing chips for artificial intelligence to trusted allies and, the White House hopes, prevent this powerful technology from falling into the hands of hostile states, particularly Russia and China. Anticipating the administration’s move, the tech industry has been arguing against strictures that could strangle innovation and global business development.  “The US leads the world in AI now, both AI development and AI chip design, and it's critical that we keep it that way,” Commerce secretary Gina Raimondo told reporters Sunday.  White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the new rule “counters the serious circumvention and related national security risks posed by countries of concern and malicious actors who may seek to use the advanced American technologies against us.”   New York Times  

How El Salvador became a model for the global far right. El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele has transformed one of the world’s most violent nations into a global model for conservative governance. His crackdown on crime, which includes imprisoning over 83,000 people and implementing draconian emergency laws, has drastically reduced violence, earning him 90% approval ratings. He has also attracted international attention by branding El Salvador as a cryptocurrency hub and tourism destination. However, these changes come at the cost of human rights violations, including arbitrary arrests, torture, and deaths in custody. Critics allege widespread abuses under Bukele’s authoritarian leadership, such as controlling the judiciary, suppressing dissent, and targeting opponents like ex-security adviser Alejandro Muyshondt, who died under suspicious circumstances in custody. Western governments are torn between engaging with Bukele, who has reduced migration and crime, and condemning his disregard for democratic norms. While Bukele touts his achievements, questions remain about his long-term intentions and whether his presidency marks a path to dictatorship. Financial Times

Opinion: Trump vs. the Military. Ronald R. Krebs warns that Donald Trump’s proposed military purges and politicization would weaken U.S. armed forces and democratic institutions. Populist leaders, like Trump, initially praise the military to build public support but later undermine its independence to consolidate power, replacing professionals with loyalists. This erodes trust, recruitment, and military effectiveness, as seen in Turkey, Poland, and India. Transforming the U.S. military into a patronage-based institution would degrade officer quality, advice to civilian policymakers, and battlefield readiness. Krebs cautions that such actions would harm national security and democratic civil-military relations.  Foreign Affairs

Opinion: Like it or not, US is more powerful than ever. William Hague argues that U.S. global power, despite perceptions of decline, is stronger than ever, with allies increasingly reliant on Washington for security and innovation. The U.S. leads in defense spending, technology, and talent recruitment, giving it unmatched leverage. He highlights the UK’s deep dependence, greater than in 1941, warning that such reliance is unhealthy and risky. Hague urges Britain to emulate U.S. strengths—openness to talent, innovation, and robust defense—while addressing its shortcomings. As Prime Minister Keir Starmer engages with President Donald Trump, Hague emphasizes the need for the UK to strengthen its foundations to reduce overdependence on America. The Times

EUROPE

Trump’s words on Greenland and borders ring alarms in Europe, but officials have a measured response. Donald Trump’s rhetoric about redrawing borders—including annexing Greenland, expanding into Canada, and controlling the Panama Canal—has alarmed European leaders, though their responses remain measured. Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni dismissed any likelihood of U.S. military aggression, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reiterated that borders must not be moved by force. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the global importance of upholding territorial sovereignty.  Analysts view Trump’s remarks as harmful to NATO unity and trans-Atlantic relations. Security expert Flemming Splidsboel Hansen highlighted potential cracks in NATO, warning of lasting turbulence. Analysts link Trump’s rhetoric to securing resources, like Greenland’s rare earth minerals, amid U.S.-China rivalry. However, comparisons to Russia’s annexation of Crimea raise concerns over undermining international norms. Observers fear Trump’s approach could embolden global instability and diminish the post-World War II order prioritizing peaceful coexistence. Associated Press

Denmark sent the Trump team private messages on Greenland. Denmark privately reached out to President-elect Donald Trump's team, offering to address U.S. security concerns in Greenland without ceding sovereignty, after Trump suggested potential military force to claim the island. Greenland, strategically significant due to its Arctic location and resources, has drawn U.S. interest amid climate change and superpower competition. Danish and Greenlandic leaders reaffirmed Greenland’s autonomy while emphasizing cooperation with the U.S. on military matters. Denmark aims to avoid confrontation, clarifying that Greenland is not for sale, while Trump's comments and Donald Trump Jr.'s visit to Nuuk suggest continued U.S. interest in the island’s strategic potential. Greenland played a key role in NATO and U.S. defenses during the Cold War as part of an early warning system to detect Soviet submarines or missiles. With new sea lanes opening up as climate change reshapes the Arctic, Greenland's geography is becoming all the more important. “We agree that the Americans have certain concerns about the security situation in the Arctic, which we share and therefore in close cooperation with Greenland, we are ready to continue talks with the incoming U.S. president, in order to ensure legitimate American interests,” Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said on Monday. Axios Reuters

Greenland's leader is ready to talk to Trump. Greenland’s Prime Minister Mute Egede expressed willingness to engage with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has described U.S. control of Greenland as an "absolute necessity." At a Copenhagen press conference on Friday, Egede emphasized Greenland’s independence aspirations while maintaining ties with Denmark, adding, “We desire to be the master of our own house.” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen also sought dialogue with Trump but did not anticipate a meeting before his inauguration on Jan. 20. Greenland, a self-governing Danish territory since 2009 with a right to claim independence via referendum, hosts a strategic U.S. military base in its northern region. Reuters

Trump’s Talk of Buying Greenland Energizes Island’s Independence Movement. Donald Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland has amplified the island's independence movement, bolstered by its geopolitical significance and vast natural resources. Greenland, a self-governing Danish territory, receives $600 million annually from Denmark but is exploring independence. Prime Minister Mute Egede recently pushed for an independence process, citing colonial-era grievances. Pro-independence sentiment is strong, with 80% support in recent elections. Trump’s rhetoric, including threats of tariffs on Denmark and promises of U.S. support, has heightened Greenland’s bargaining power. Analysts suggest Denmark might negotiate a "free association" model, allowing Greenland to govern independently while maintaining economic ties. The U.S. presence, notably the Pituffik Space Base, underscores Greenland’s strategic value. Meanwhile, Denmark has boosted Arctic defense and infrastructure, signaling its commitment to the island. As April elections approach, Greenland faces the challenge of defining the island’s economic and geopolitical future. Wall Street Journal Bloomberg Reuters

The Kremlin says Greenland is in Russia's sphere of 'national and strategic interests.' Russia claims Greenland falls within its "national and strategic interests" following President-elect Donald Trump's renewed ambition to acquire the Arctic territory. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov cited Russia’s growing Arctic military presence and commitment to regional stability while monitoring Trump’s rhetoric about using military force or imposing tariffs on Denmark. Analysts note Trump’s arguments resemble Kremlin narratives justifying aggression in Ukraine. Greenland’s Prime Minister Múte Egede rejected Trump’s claims, emphasizing sovereignty and independence aspirations. Denmark has defended Greenland’s autonomy while signaling openness to security talks with the U.S., highlighting Greenland’s rising geopolitical value as a resource-rich Arctic hub. Business Insider The Hill

Poland backs Donald Trump on raising Nato spending to 5% of GDP. Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz endorsed Donald Trump’s proposal to raise NATO defense spending to 5% of GDP, describing it as “an important wake-up call” in an interview on Saturday. Poland, allocating 4.7% of GDP to defense this year, leads NATO in meeting the target. Kosiniak-Kamysz emphasized, “We must surely find the money to protect ourselves from war.” He urged the European Union to reallocate €100 billion for defense in its next budget. Reaching Trump’s goal “will take another decade, but I think he should not be criticized for setting a really ambitious target because otherwise there will be some countries that will continue to debate whether more spending is really needed,” he said. While reaffirming support for Ukraine, Kosiniak-Kamysz cited tensions over issues like agricultural exports and Ukrainian nationals who have left their country, adding, “Of course, there is fatigue in Polish society, and it is understandable, especially when people here see young Ukrainian men driving the latest cars or staying in five-star hotels,” he said.” Kosiniak-Kamysz rejected deploying Polish troops in Ukraine, arguing for broader NATO burden-sharing, stating, “Border states should not appear with their troops in Ukraine.” He reflected on Poland’s military contributions: "Ukraine must also remember that when others were only sending helmets, we sent tanks.”  Financial Times

ANALYSIS–Russia Is Stepping Up Its Covert War Beyond Ukraine. Russia's covert war against Europe escalated in 2024, with 44 documented operations targeting infrastructure, military facilities, and political stability. Moscow’s actions include sabotage, assassinations, and influence operations, such as funding pro-Russian politicians through propaganda platforms. High-profile incidents include bomb threats, water supply disruptions, and incendiary devices placed on civilian aircraft. NATO leaders urge a shift to a “wartime mindset” as Europe grapples with inadequate defense spending and internal divisions. Analysts emphasize the need for unified European red lines, enhanced intelligence, and strengthened armament industries to counter Russia's aggressive tactics and safeguard liberal democracies from further threats. Foreign Policy

A New Age of American Interference in Europe. The rise of overt American interference in Europe, led by Donald Trump and Elon Musk, is reshaping the continent’s political landscape. Trump’s MAGA movement and Musk’s platform, X, have amplified far-right causes, destabilizing traditional alliances and empowering movements like Germany’s AfD. Musk has actively supported far-right leaders, including Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, while attacking centrist politicians like Britain’s Keir Starmer. This interference exploits Europe’s existing grievances over immigration, economic stagnation, and declining trust in institutions, fueling public discontent. Musk’s financial backing and social media influence normalize far-right narratives, eroding longstanding taboos against extremist ideologies. Europe, historically focused on resisting covert threats from Russia and China, seems unprepared for these direct incursions. Analysts warn that America’s chaotic influence, combined with internal frustrations, risks undermining Europe’s democratic resilience. As MAGA strategies prioritize U.S. dominance over allies, European leaders must address voters’ concerns while countering this unprecedented, overt political disruption.New York Times

German police investigate suspected Russian espionage at military bases. German authorities are investigating suspected Russian espionage activities targeting military bases and critical infrastructure. This follows a series of incidents, including unauthorized drone flights over sensitive sites, most recently in Bavaria and the arrest of individuals accused of spying for Russia. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) has noted an increase in Russian intelligence operations within Germany, particularly after the expulsion of Russian diplomats. These activities are seen as part of a broader strategy by Russia to undermine European security and political stability.  Reuters

Germany sets up a military division dedicated to territorial defense. Germany will establish a new military division focused solely on territorial defense, consolidating all reserve units under direct army command starting April 2025. This reorganization raises Germany's divisions to four without increasing its total force of 180,000 soldiers. The move aligns with NATO's heightened alert amid concerns over potential Russian aggression within four years.The new division will protect critical infrastructure like ports, railways, and supply routes, complementing Germany's role as NATO's logistics hub for troop reinforcements. Berlin cites increasing Russian sabotage against its infrastructure, which Moscow denies, as a pressing reason for the streamlined command structure. Reuters

Co-leader of Germany’s far-right AfD calls for mass deportations. Alice Weidel, co-leader of Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), called for “repatriations on a large scale” in a speech on Saturday in Riesa, Saxony. She invoked the controversial term “remigration,” coined by Austrian right-wing ideologue Martin Sellner, to advocate for forcibly removing immigrants who fail to integrate or break laws. Addressing supporters, Weidel said, “If it’s called remigration, then it’s called remigration,” earning loud applause and chants of “Alice für Deutschland.” Weidel also promoted reopening the Nord Stream gas pipeline, restoring nuclear power, and dismantling gender studies programs. The AfD, polling at 20%, faces rejection from other major parties for coalition-building, limiting its prospects for power. Kay Gottschalk, a Bundestag member from the party’s moderate wing, acknowledged Weidel’s rhetoric as a nod to Björn Höcke, a radical faction leader. Meanwhile, protests against the AfD’s gathering drew 10,000 demonstrators, delaying proceedings by two hours. Financial Times

Germany calls a Russian oil tanker adrift in the Baltic Sea a threat to security. A Russian-linked oil tanker, Eventin, carrying 99,000 tons of oil went adrift near Germany’s Rügen Island before being towed by a German tugboat. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock criticized Russia for endangering Baltic Sea security, tourism, and sanctions enforcement through its "shadow fleet" of aging tankers. Greenpeace highlighted the fleet’s role in sustaining Russia's oil revenues despite sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine. The incident raised concerns about environmental and regional security risks. Associated Press

Protesters say Fico is dragging Slovakia to Russia in the Ukraine gas dispute. Thousands protested in Bratislava on Friday, accusing Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico of aligning with Russia after his December meeting with Vladimir Putin amid a gas dispute with Ukraine. Ukraine halted Russian gas transit through its territory on Jan. 1, which Fico claimed would cost Slovakia €1.5 billion in lost transit fees and higher gas prices. Fico threatened to cut humanitarian aid and refugee support to Ukraine while pursuing alternative gas delivery promises from Russia’s Gazprom. Protesters, waving Slovak and European Union flags, chanted "Enough of Russia!" while critics denounced Fico's shift toward Moscow and refusal to provide military aid to Ukraine. Reuters

Moldova's separatist Transnistria region reduces blackouts. Transnistria’s Russian-backed separatist authorities announced a reduction in rolling blackouts, now three hours daily, following energy-saving measures amid halted Russian gas supplies. Previously reliant on Russian gas via Ukraine, the region faced shortages after Ukraine refused to extend transit agreements. Moldova accuses Russia of creating the crisis to destabilize the country ahead of elections, highlighting Moscow’s refusal to use alternative routes like TurkStream. Industries in Transnistria adapted, with some shifting to night operations, though major plants closed. Separatist leaders refused offers of assistance from the Moldovan government. Moldovan President Maia Sandu criticized Russia’s actions, emphasizing its disregard for residents’ safety and well-being. Reuters CNN

Romanian protesters demand that the canceled presidential election should go ahead. Tens of thousands protested in Bucharest on Sunday to demand the reinstatement of Romania’s presidential election, voided by the top court after allegations of Russian interference in support of frontrunner Calin Georgescu. Protesters, including leftists and far-right supporters, criticized outgoing President Klaus Iohannis for inaction during his decade in power. George Simion, leader of the far-right AUR party, called for "a return to democracy." Organizers claimed 100,000 participants, though police estimated 20,000. Many expressed concerns over electoral transparency, with one protester stating, “Authorities must say why they canceled the election.” The rescheduled election is set for May 4 and May 18. Reuters

Russian-friendly incumbent Zoran Milanovic re-elected president of Croatia. Croatia's populist President Zoran Milanovic was re-elected on Sunday with 74.7% of the vote, defeating conservative rival Dragan Primorac. Milanovic, a critic of Western aid to Ukraine and NATO expansion, has clashed with Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, whose government supports Ukraine and faces corruption allegations. Milanovic’s re-election, with a 44% turnout, signals challenges for Plenkovic, as opposition leader Sinisa Hajdas Doncic declared the victory a political setback for the prime minister. Reuters

Sweden to contribute up to 3 warships to reinforce NATO presence in the Baltic. Sweden will contribute up to three warships, an ASC 890 surveillance aircraft, and four coast guard ships to NATO's Baltic Sea patrols, with seven additional vessels on standby. This marks Sweden's first NATO deployment since joining in March 2024. Recent sabotage of undersea cables has heightened regional tensions, with suspicion falling on Russia's "shadow fleet." Finland and NATO allies, including the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force, are also bolstering surveillance. Leaders will meet in Helsinki on Tuesday to discuss security. Associated Press Barron's The Guardian  

Slovak parliament's deputy speaker arrives in Moscow, TASS reports. Slovak Deputy Speaker of Parliament Andrej Danko arrived in Moscow on Sunday, seeking solutions to Ukraine's halt of Russian gas deliveries to Europe. Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico previously stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin promised Gazprom would find alternative routes for gas. Danko will visit until Wednesday to meet Russian officials, including Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin and Federation Council head Valentina Matviyenko, to discuss gas and investment issues amid tensions from Russia’s war on Ukraine. Reuters

Opinion: Why Donald Trump’s Greenland pitch makes good sense. Roger Boyes argues that Donald Trump’s revived interest in acquiring Greenland reflects strategic foresight, not mere flamboyance. Greenland's rare earth minerals and Arctic access could break Western dependence on China, whose assertive global behavior includes espionage and military expansion. Boyes notes Trump’s historical parallel: Harry Truman sought Greenland post-World War II for its security value. Trump’s pitch to Greenland’s 56,000 residents includes promises of prosperity through U.S. investment, contrasting Denmark's colonial history. While an independence referendum in April may favor Trump’s ambitions, Boyes warns this could strain NATO by splitting allies. A "grand bargain" granting U.S. access while preserving Danish sovereignty could balance interests, signaling strength against China. The Times

THE MIDDLE EAST

ANALYSIS–In an Upended Mideast, Trump Faces a New Divergence with Old Allies.As Donald Trump prepares to return to office, divergences with Gulf allies emerge on key Middle East policies. Gulf states now advocate a softer approach toward Iran and a harder line on Israel, contrasting Trump’s hawkish cabinet selections. Saudi Arabia, once nearing normalization with Israel, has shifted, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman labeling Gaza’s war as “genocide” and demanding Palestinian statehood. Meanwhile, Gulf nations prioritize regional stability after warming ties with Iran. Trump’s energy policies, emphasizing U.S. oil and gas production, could strain Gulf economies reliant on high oil prices. Europe’s security and trade dynamics add complexity to evolving U.S.-Gulf relations. New York Times

Trump's Ukraine envoy says the world must reinstate 'maximum pressure' on Iran. Keith Kellogg, Donald Trump’s incoming Ukraine envoy, called for reinstating "maximum pressure" on Iran during a speech Saturday at the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) event in Paris. He emphasized the need for economic and diplomatic efforts to exploit Iran’s perceived vulnerabilities and push for democratic reforms. Trump has pledged to revive policies from his previous term aimed at crippling Iran’s economy to force negotiations on its nuclear program, missile development, and regional actions. NCRI leader Maryam Rajavi urged Western governments to support the Iranian people and abandon past policies, citing shifting regional dynamics against Iran’s leadership. Reuters

Iran holding war games as it faces Israel tensions, Trump's return. Iran conducted air defense drills Saturday amid rising tensions with Israel and the imminent return of Donald Trump as U.S. president. The exercises, part of two months of war games, simulated defense against air, missile, and electronic warfare threats, focusing on vital sites like Natanz. Iran showcased advanced drones, missiles, and an underground "missile city." Iranian leaders anticipate tougher U.S. sanctions and potential Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities under Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy. Revolutionary Guards Commander Major General Hossein Salami dismissed setbacks in Lebanon and Syria, asserting Iran’s missile forces are stronger than ever. Reuters

EU foreign ministers to tackle Syria sanctions relief at the end of month. European foreign ministers will meet on Jan. 27  to discuss easing sanctions on Syria following Bashar al-Assad's ouster in December. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas emphasized that any sanctions relief would require Syria’s new interim government to ensure inclusive governance and tangible progress toward political transition. Germany proposed targeted sanctions relief for Syrians while retaining measures against Assad allies. Saudi Arabia and Turkey urged lifting sanctions to support Syria’s reconstruction and normalization efforts. The U.S. recently eased some restrictions, allowing limited transactions with Syria. The interim government seeks international aid to rebuild after 14 years of civil war. Reuters Associated Press

Sources say West reportedly warned Syria over its appointment of foreign jihadists to army positions. Western envoys from the U.S., France, and Germany have expressed concern to Syria's new rebel rulers over the appointment of foreign jihadists to senior military positions, warning that it poses security risks and could harm their international image. These appointments include individuals from countries like China, Jordan, Egypt, and Turkey, with some linked to extremist groups such as al-Qaeda and the Turkistan Islamic Party. Syria's new Islamist administration, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), defended the move, stating that these fighters, who have been in Syria for years and contributed to the ousting of Bashar al-Assad, are now integrated into society and cannot be sent back to their home countries where they may face persecution. The U.S., European, and Arab nations are engaging with Syria's new leadership to encourage an inclusive political transition, counter-terrorism efforts, and reduced Iranian influence. However, they remain cautious about the appointments, fearing they may embolden transnational jihadists and create global security risks. Balancing internal factions and meeting Western and Arab demands will be a significant challenge for Syria's victorious rulers as they attempt to rebuild the nation. Reuters

Syria Confronts an Immense Challenge: Justice for Assad Regime Crimes. The fall of Syria’s Assad regime after 54 years has exposed mass atrocities, including torture devices, mass graves, and the detention of thousands. The new rebel-led government pledges justice for these crimes, promising to prosecute senior officials and publishing lists of accused perpetrators. Ayman Asfari, head of the human rights network Madaniya, emphasized, “Syrians can only achieve closure by bringing these criminals to justice.” However, challenges abound. The regime’s sectarian nature risks inflaming tensions, and its damaged legal system is ill-prepared for sweeping prosecutions. Nerma Jelacic of the Commission for International Justice and Accountability warned, “These things take time and never happen overnight.” Experts like Stephen Rapp advocate for a comprehensive truth-telling process, akin to South Africa’s post-apartheid model, to address systemic repression. Swift action is vital to prevent revenge killings and deepening divisions. Ahmed al-Shara, Syria’s interim leader, vowed on Telegram, “We will not relent in holding accountable the murderers and torturers.” New York Times

Syria's de facto leader al-Sharaa meets Lebanese Prime Minister amid efforts to rebuild strained ties. Syrian de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa and Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati met in Damascus over the weekend to strengthen bilateral ties, focusing on border security and resolving long-standing issues. This marked the first visit by a Lebanese premier to Syria in 15 years, and the first high-level meeting since Bashar al-Assad's ousting last month. The two leaders prioritized demarcating their shared land and sea borders, enhancing border security to combat illegal smuggling, and addressing the repatriation of nearly 800,000 Syrian refugees in Lebanon, which have strained Lebanese public services. They also discussed Syrian deposits in Lebanese banks, inaccessible due to Beirut’s financial crisis. Al-Sharaa underscored the need for a new, positive relationship between the two nations, moving beyond historically fraught ties and Syria's decades-long influence over Lebanon. Mikati's visit was accompanied by Lebanese officials responsible for border management and security, signaling a commitment to improving cooperation. Lebanon's newly elected President Joseph Aoun also expressed hopes for constructive dialogue with Damascus, which al-Sharaa welcomed. Reuters Al Jazeera 

Syria’s Alawites, Sect of the Assads, Fear for Their Future. The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime has left Syria’s Alawite minority fearing for their safety amid rising sectarian tensions. Alawites, who make up about 10% of the population and were associated with the regime, now face violence and discrimination, including mysterious killings, looted homes, and harassment at checkpoints. In Khirbet al-Ma’zah, masked militants attacked Alawite villagers, staging mock executions and beating residents like Khodr Ibrahim. "I thought for certain they would kill us," said Ibrahim, recounting an attack on him and his brother. Three Alawite judges were found dead in December, sparking fears of targeted reprisals. Faten Khadam, a judge’s widow, lamented, "I don’t feel safe, and neither does any Syrian I know." The new government, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has vowed to protect minorities and pursue Assad loyalists, but Alawites remain skeptical. “It is on HTS to treat all Syrians equally,” urged Faryaal Ghanaam, an Alawite resident. Wall Street Journal

Syrian intelligence agency claims it foiled a planned IS bomb attack on a Shiite shrine. Intelligence agents in Syria's new rebel government, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), claimed to have thwarted an Islamic State (IS) plot to bomb a Shiite shrine in Sayyida Zeinab, a Damascus suburb. The government said that it arrested members of the IS cell involved in the plan. The shrine, which has been previously targeted by IS, is a major site for Shiite pilgrims. HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa has stressed religious coexistence for the war-torn nation, aiming to reassure religious minorities after the group's recent rise to power. In a related development, Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati met with al-Sharaa in Damascus to discuss border demarcation and combating smuggling along the porous Lebanon-Syria frontier. Associated Press Reuters 

Italy releases Iranian wanted by U.S. after Tehran freed Italian journalist. Italy on Sunday released Iranian businessman Mohammad Abedini, wanted by the U.S. for allegedly exporting drone navigation technology to Iran's military, as part of a deal to secure the release of Italian journalist Cecilia Sala, who was detained in Tehran on Dec. 19. Abedini was freed from a Milan prison after Italian Justice Minister Carlo Nordio canceled his arrest, citing legal grounds, including the lack of equivalent Italian laws and insufficient evidence for extradition. While Iran denies the allegations against Abedini, the U.S. has stood firm on its accusation that he was involved in a 2024 drone attack in Jordan that killed three American soldiers. The deal involved complex negotiations with Iran, as well as coordination with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump; Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met with the GOP leader in Florida, reportedly explaining the importance of rescuing Sala. According to an official in the Italian government, this conversation ultimately resulted in Trump’s understanding of Rome’s decision. Italy delayed Abedini's release to avoid the appearance of a direct prisoner swap, but officials acknowledged that the move was necessary to free Sala. Wall Street Journal Reuters Associated Press 

UAE set to reopen Lebanon embassy after more than three years. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is preparing to reopen its embassy in Lebanon after more than three years of closure. The embassy was shut in October 2021 following diplomatic tensions over Lebanese criticism of the Saudi-led coalition's involvement in Yemen and concerns over Hezbollah's influence in Beirut’s politics. The reopening comes in the wake of discussions between UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Lebanon's newly elected President Joseph Aoun, reflecting the Abu Dhabi’s intent to support Lebanon's stability and development. Lebanese officials, including Deputy Parliament Speaker Elias Bou Saab, have expressed optimism about renewed ties with Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia. The move comes as Lebanon recently agreed to extradite Abdul Rahman al-Qaradawi, son of a controversial Muslim cleric, to the UAE. His extradition follows his arrest in Lebanon for online criticisms of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. The embassy's reopening signals hope for strengthened relations and a fresh start for Lebanon's diplomatic ties with Gulf nations. Reuters 

Biden spoke with loved ones of Americans detained by Taliban in Afghanistan. U.S. President Joe Biden on Sunday spoke with the families of three Americans detained by the Taliban in Afghanistan since 2022—Ryan Corbett, George Glezmann, and Mahmood Habibi—reaffirming his commitment to securing their release. The Biden administration has been negotiating with the Taliban to exchange the detainees for Muhammad Rahim al-Afghani, a high-profile prisoner held at Guantanamo Bay. However, Biden stressed that he would not agree to the exchange unless all three Americans are freed. The Taliban has denied holding Habibi and countered the U.S. proposal with a demand to exchange Corbett and Glezmann for Rahim and two others. Rahim, who has been detained since 2007, was accused of being an al-Qaeda facilitator and subjected to harsh interrogation methods in CIA custody before being sent to Guantanamo Bay. Recently, Biden transferred 11 Guantanamo detainees to Oman as part of his broader goal to close the detention facility before leaving office.  The White House also noted the Biden administration's efforts to bring home more than 75 Americans wrongfully detained worldwide and reiterated the outgoing president’s dedication to continuing these efforts. Reuters Associated Press 

Turkey detains 2013 bombing suspect inside Syria. Turkey's intelligence agency (MIT) captured Muhammed Dib Korali, a suspect in the 2013 Reyhanli bombings that killed 53 people, during a cross-border operation Monday in Syria, handing him over to Hatay police. The twin car bombings were blamed on a group loyal to Bashar al-Assad, though Damascus denied involvement. Another suspect, Yusuf Nazik, was similarly captured in Syria in 2018 and sentenced to life in prison. The operation highlights Turkey's continued pursuit of justice for the attack. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

As China frictions persist, the Philippines launches Spratly Island military post upgrades. The Philippines is enhancing its facilities on Thitu Island, its sole outpost in the contested Spratly Islands, as part of an effort to bolster its presence in the South China Sea. The government has allocated 1.65 billion pesos ($27 million) to extend the airstrip and 300 million pesos for a sheltered port. An additional 1 billion pesos is set aside for a port on nearby Nanshan Island to improve supply routes and coastguard operations. Funds will also go towards extending Thitu’s only airstrip to 1.5km, so that it can be utilized by light combat and transport planes, as well as some variants of the F-16 fighter. These upgrades are aimed at boosting the Philippines' limited military capabilities and challenging China's increasing maritime presence in the region. Analysts warn, however, that this could lead to heightened tensions, close encounters, and potential clashes, particularly near Chinese-controlled Subi Reef, which lies just 22 kilometers away. Beijing will likely express concern over possible U.S. military use of the upgraded facilities, viewing it as interference in the territorial dispute. The Philippines is catching up with rival claimants like China, Vietnam, and Malaysia, who have made significant infrastructure investments in the Spratlys. South China Morning Post 

Japan, Philippines, U.S. pledge to strengthen cooperation as China's aggressive behavior escalates. The leaders of Japan, the Philippines, and the United States pledged to strengthen their trilateral cooperation to address mounting tensions in Asia's waters during a virtual meeting on Monday. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., and outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden “agreed to enhance and deepen economic, maritime and technology cooperation.” The leaders reaffirmed their commitment to upholding international law and regional stability, particularly in response to Beijing’s increasingly "dangerous and unlawful behavior" in the South China Sea. They also opposed "unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force" in the East and South China Seas. Both Tokyo and Manila, which have bilateral defense treaties with Washington, are engaged in territorial disputes with China in these areas. Tensions have surged recently due to confrontations between Chinese and Philippine coast guards. President Biden commended Marcos for his diplomatic approach to Beijing’s activities, expressing optimism about continued cooperation under the U.S.’s incoming GOP administration. Reuters 

Uyghur men detained in Thailand fear deportation to China, as persecution and imprisonment could await. A group of 43 Uyghur men, detained in Thailand for over a decade, is facing the imminent threat of deportation to China, sparking concerns from activists and family members about potential abuse, torture, or death upon their return. The Uyghurs, who fled persecution in China’s Xinjiang region, have been held in harsh conditions since 2014, when a group of 300 were seized by Thai authorities close to the border with Malaysia. A 2015 deportation of 109 Uyghurs to China resulted in international condemnation. 173 more people, mostly women and children, were sent to Turkey, and five of the original detainees have since died in custody in Thailand. The remaining men have applied for asylum through the UNHCR, though Thai authorities have blocked UN access. Recent reports indicate that Thai officials may push for deportations now, potentially influenced by the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations with China as well as the possibility of reduced backlash from the U.S. amid its political transitions. Uyghur activists and rights groups stress the detainees’ innocence and invoke the international law principle of non-refoulement, which prohibits returning individuals to countries where they risk torture. While some countries are reportedly willing to resettle the Uyghurs, Thai officials claim no offers have been made. Families of the detainees continue to express fear and frustration over the lack of international action. Associated Press 

How South Korea’s political crisis could bring it closer to China. Analysts warn that South Korea’s deepening political turmoil, sparked by President Yoon Suk-yeol's shocking declaration of martial law on December 3, could end up pushing the country closer to China. South Korea’s constitutional court is deliberating Yoon’s impeachment case, a process that could take six months. If he is dismissed, a general election will be held, and Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung is emerging as the frontrunner. The situation is fueling speculation that stronger Seoul-Beijing ties could be on the horizon, with one expert asserting that the nation, under the power of the Democratic Party, “will pursue relations with the U.S. on the one hand and restore South Korea-China relations on the other.” Under Yoon's leadership, South Korea maintained strong ties with the U.S., participating in alliances such as the trilateral security treaty with Washington and Tokyo and the Chip 4 alliance. His administration also took a firm stance against China, aligning closely with Taiwan and hosting the Summit for Democracy last year. Analysts predict that if the Democratic Party takes power, South Korea may adopt a more balanced approach, improving ties with China while maintaining security cooperation with the U.S. Economic factors, along with regional tensions such as North Korea's aggression and its designation of South Korea as a "hostile state," will likely influence foreign policy. While closer ties with Beijing may occur, a return to a "honeymoon" period with Pyongyang is considered unlikely, as past engagement efforts yielded limited results. South China Morning Post

With South Korea in Crisis, Eight Justices Will Decide President’s Fate. South Korea’s Constitutional Court is set to decide the fate of President Yoon Suk Yeol, impeached for declaring martial law in December. The crisis, the country’s worst in decades, has polarized citizens, with protests outside the court. If removed, Yoon would be the third consecutive conservative president ousted before completing their term. Yoon’s martial law, lasting six hours, involved deploying armed troops to seize parliament and detain lawmakers, prompting accusations of insurrection. Prosecutors cite evidence of constitutional violations, including media suppression and political bans. Analysts like Noh Hee-bum anticipate his removal to stabilize the country amid mounting uncertainty. New York Times

Lawyer of South Korea's Yoon says president will not attend first impeachment trial hearing. Embittered South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will not attend the first hearing of his impeachment trial this week due to safety concerns, according to his lawyer. The Constitutional Court will begin oral arguments on Tuesday, with five sessions scheduled until February 4. Yoon's absence may delay the first session, but the second session can proceed without him if he fails to appear. Investigators are also seeking to detain Yoon for questioning in a separate case related to his brief imposition of martial law. A previous attempt to arrest him resulted in an hours-long standoff with the Presidential Security Service, and a second attempt is expected after a court extended the arrest warrant. Yoon's lawyers have indicated he will attend the trial once safety concerns are addressed and have stressed the importance of avoiding clashes between the police and the security service during future arrest attempts. Yonhap News Agency Reuters The Guardian The Hill  

South Korea’s acting president repeats appeal for rival parties to draft special counsel bill for Yoon investigation. South Korea’s Acting President Choi Sang-mok has urged ruling and opposition parties to resolve their differences and draft a special counsel bill to investigate impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol's botched martial law attempt. On Monday, Choi met with the leaders of the ruling People Power Party (PPP) and the opposition Democratic Party, calling for a bill free of "unconstitutional elements." The opposition seeks to revise the bill to include allegations of treason and insurrection against Yoon, with a special counsel recommended by the Supreme Court's chief justice. However, the PPP opposes this proposal. Choi also called for bipartisan support to create a consultative body to address public welfare, economic, and trade issues and expedite related legislation. Yonhap News Agency 

U.N. reports dozens of deaths in Myanmar after military air strike on Rakhine village. A devastating military airstrike by Myanmar's ruling junta on the village of Kyauk Ni Maw in Rakhine state killed over 40 people and destroyed around 500 homes last week, according to the U.N., the National Unity Government, and the Arakan Army. The attack targeted a region where the Arakan Army, an ethnic militia, is fighting for autonomy. The victims included Muslim villagers, with the Arakan Army releasing the names of 26 victims. Myanmar has been in turmoil since the military's 2021 coup, which ousted the government of Aung San Suu Kyi, sparking protests that escalated into a civil war. The junta denies targeting civilians, claiming it combats "terrorists." The U.N. has called on all parties to uphold international humanitarian law, while activists, including the Blood Money Campaign, continues to demand sanctions on entities supplying aviation fuel to the junta to prevent further airstrikes. Reuters The Straits Times Al Jazeera  

AFRICA

Sudanese military retakes strategic city from paramilitary forces accused of genocide. The Sudanese military recaptured the key city of Wad Madani in Sudan’s El Gezira state on Saturday, marking its most significant victory since the civil war began nearly two years ago. The city had been held by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since December 2023. The U.S. recently accused the RSF of genocide, and sanctioned its leader, Gen. Mohamed Hamdan ("Hemeti"). Hemeti acknowledged the loss, but asserted his intention to reclaim it, blaming the defeat on the military’s alleged use of Iranian drones, as well as militants from Ethiopia's Tigray region. The military’s success, if sustained, could shift the war's focus northward to Khartoum. Celebrations erupted across Sudan and among exiled communities in the wake of Wad Madani’s recapture, signaling hope for a turning point in the devastating conflict. The war, however, continues to inflict misery, with tens of thousands killed, millions displaced, and widespread famine affecting 25 million people. Both the RSF, backed by the UAE, and the military, supported by nations like Iran and Russia, have been accused of atrocities, though only the paramilitary faces genocide allegations. The conflict remains fluid, with shifting momentum and extensive humanitarian suffering. New York Times Reuters Associated Press 

Islamic State attacks have ravaged this once peaceful part of Mozambique. The New York Times is out with a report detailing the devastation an insurgency linked to ISIS-Mozambique has wreaked on northern Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado Province, a once peaceful fishing and farming region rich with resources like gas, timber, and rubies. The insurgency, which was sparked in 2017 in the quiet village of Mocimboa da Praia, has caused brutal conflict and fueled a severe humanitarian crisis. Nearly 6,000 have died, with survivors struggling to secure food and shelter. Around half of the province’s 2.3 million residents have been displaced. Cabo Delgado has seen escalating violence despite international efforts to curb the bloodshed, particularly from better equipped Rwandan troops, who have aided Mozambique in weakening the insurgents. And attacks have grown smaller but more frequent, spreading to new areas. The insurgency has disrupted the lives of locals, many of whom live displaced in overcrowded towns like Pemba. Survivors recount harrowing experiences of abductions, savage violence, sexual assault, and displacement. Some locals feel distrust toward both the government and insurgents, with the conflict leaving lasting physical and psychological scars. Efforts at rebuilding and healing include therapy workshops and support centers for children affected by the violence, offering a glimmer of hope amidst seemingly relentless challenges. New York Times

Chad ruling party wins parliamentary majority. Chad's ruling Patriotic Salvation Movement emerged triumphant in the country's Dec. 29 legislative election, securing 124 of 188 seats, according to provisional results. The controversial election, boycotted by opposition parties over allegations of bias and lack of transparency, marks Chad's return to constitutional rule after over three years of interim leadership under President Mahamat Idriss Deby. Deby seized power following the death of his father, Idriss Deby Itno, in 2021 and was later elected president in a contested vote in May 2024. This election, the Central African nation's first in over a decade, also included municipal and regional votes with a 51.56% turnout. Chad, a significant ally in the fight against Islamic militants in the Sahel, recently ended its defense pact with France and has aligned itself with other Sahel countries that have cut ties with the West and fostered relations with Russia. Separately, security forces foiled a reported attempt to destabilize the presidency this week, shedding light on the ongoing tensions in the oil-rich state. Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle Bloomberg  

U.N. says over 100,000 people in Congo’s volatile east have been displaced since the start of this year. A new offensive by M23 rebels in eastern Congo has displaced over 100,000 people since the start of the year, according to a United Nations report published last week. The rebel group recently captured the town of Masisi and two other strategic towns, causing mass displacement and adding to the 2.8 million people already displaced in North Kivu, which represents over a third of the province's population. M23, a group of ethnic Tutsi rebels, splintered from the Congolese army over a decade ago and gained visibility in 2012 by seizing Goma, the largest city in eastern Congo. It is one of more than 100 armed groups fighting for control in the mineral-rich region near the Rwandan border. The ongoing conflict has led to over 7 million people being displaced, creating one of the world's largest humanitarian crises. Associated Press France 24 

Nigeria's air force investigates civilian deaths after air strike. Nigeria's air force is investigating civilian casualties from a Saturday airstrike in Zamfara state targeting armed gangs. Residents reported at least 15 civilians, including local security guards, were killed. While the air force claims the strike rescued kidnapped victims, incidents of civilian harm have occurred before, such as a December strike in Sokoto state that killed 10. Officials, including Air Vice Marshal Olusola Akinboyewa, pledged an investigation and efforts to minimize harm to civilians. Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

US imposes export controls on chips for AI to counter China. The U.S. has introduced new export controls on AI-related chips to curb China’s access to advanced technology with military applications. The policy, unveiled on Monday, creates a three-tier licensing system: allies like G7 nations face no restrictions, while China, Russia, and Iran are effectively barred. The middle tier of more than 100 countries will face caps and licenses for export volumes over those limits. The controls aim to prevent adversaries from circumventing U.S. restrictions and leveraging American tech for weapons development. The Semiconductor Industry Association criticized the rules, warning they might undermine U.S. technological leadership and global competitiveness, particularly for firms like Nvidia and AMD. Nvidia expressed concerns that the measures would regulate widely available consumer tech without enhancing security. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo defended the policy, stating it balances innovation with security. Experts argue the framework addresses national security risks but may challenge enforcement. Critics, including Senator Ted Cruz, have called for a rollback, citing potential economic damage and insufficient Congressional input. Financial Times

‘Electronic warfare’ between U.S. and China could be on the horizon following Washington’s reveal of anti-satellite jammer network. Experts are warning that an electronic battle between the U.S. and China could be brewing in the Indo-Pacific, as Washington moves closer to disrupting Beijing’s “kill chains” with new technology. The U.S. Space Force plans to deploy Remote Modular Terminals (RMTs) in the Indo-Pacific to disrupt China’s satellite surveillance network, particularly its sophisticated Yaogan series. These jammers aim to block communications between satellites and their targeting systems, reducing China’s ability to track American and allied forces. This move is seen as part of a growing space rivalry between the two superpowers, with experts warning that the deployment could escalate into an "electronic warfare battle.” China is likely to develop countermeasures, including anti-radiation drones and electronic warfare tactics, to target the jammers. Analysts highlight lessons from the Ukraine war, where similar tactics have been employed, leading to a "cat-and-mouse game" of jamming and counter-jamming technology. China’s expanding satellite network and the narrowing technological gap with the U.S. have increased tensions, with both nations needing clearer communication protocols to avoid potential conflicts in space. Washington plans to deploy up to 200 jammers in the region, marking an expansion of its Space Force’s operational role. However, some experts question the effectiveness of the jammers, particularly against optical satellites, and note their vulnerability to counterattacks. South China Morning Post

The coming battle between social media and the state. The battle between social media platforms and global governments is intensifying, with platforms like Meta and X (formerly Twitter) showing signs of weakness in the face of determined state action. Social media thrives on engagement, often fueled by misinformation, as moderation and fact-checking are costly. Meta’s recent alignment with Donald Trump’s administration reflects a strategic pivot to counter regulatory challenges from the EU, Brazil, and others. Mark Zuckerberg expressed intentions to “work with President Trump to push back on governments around the world,” citing U.S. constitutional protections as a shield against foreign regulations. Despite these moves, platforms’ vulnerability is evident. X’s compliance with Brazilian court orders after initial resistance highlights their limited power against determined governments. While social media companies seek to avoid regulatory costs, governments’ resolve to regulate platforms’ influence on public discourse will determine whether this growing conflict results in tighter oversight or continued platform autonomy. Financial Times 

U.S. detains Russian nationals suspected of operating crypto mixers Blender and Sinbad. The U.S. has indicted three Russian nationals for operating cryptocurrency mixing services, Blender.io and Sinbad.io, which were used to launder stolen cryptocurrency for cybercriminals and North Korean state-sponsored hacking groups, including the notorious Lazarus Group. Two of the accused, Roman Ostapenko and Alexander Oleynik, were arrested on Dec. 1st, while the third, Anton Tarasov, remains at large. The platforms obfuscated the origins and destinations of illicit transactions, aiding crimes such as ransomware attacks and major cryptocurrency thefts. Blender.io operated from 2018 to 2022, after which Sinbad.io emerged as its likely successor. Both were sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury for laundering funds stolen in high-profile hacks, including the $620 million Axie Infinity theft and the $100 million Horizon Bridge theft. Sinbad was also linked to laundering proceeds from Russian ransomware groups and other hacks totaling hundreds of millions of dollars. U.S. law enforcement, in collaboration with agencies from the Netherlands, Finland, and Australia, dismantled Sinbad last year. The indicted individuals face charges including conspiracy to commit money laundering and operating unlicensed money transmission businesses, with potential sentences of 20 to 30 years in prison. Efforts to limit cryptocurrency mixers' use by cybercriminals and state-backed actors remain ongoing, with several platforms, including Tornado Cash, being sanctioned or shut down in recent years. The Record U.S. Department of Justice The Hacker News Cyberscoop   

New York files lawsuit to recover $2 million in crypto stolen in remote job scams. The New York Attorney General, in collaboration with the U.S. Secret Service and Queens County District Attorney's Office, is working to recover over $2 million in cryptocurrency stolen in a remote job scam. The scam ran from January 2023 to June 2024, targeting victims through fake job offers via text messages and WhatsApp. Victims were tricked into depositing stablecoins like USDT and USDC into cryptocurrency wallets controlled by scammers, who then claimed additional fees were needed to access their funds. The scam primarily targeted victims seeking remote work, exploiting legitimate cryptocurrency platforms like Coinbase and Crypto.com. One victim alone lost over $100,000. Working with blockchain firms and crypto companies such as Tether and Circle, authorities were able to freeze some of the stolen funds. This recovery effort also includes innovative legal actions, like sending notifications to scammers through NFTs linked to their wallets. This case is part of a broader crackdown on cryptocurrency-related crimes. Tether’s T3 initiative has frozen over $126 million in criminal assets globally, demonstrating how blockchain transparency aids in tracing and freezing illicit funds. Similar efforts are underway internationally, with Canadian law enforcement successfully recovering stolen cryptocurrency for victims. The Record Associated Press 

China’s state space contractor test-fired 5 new rocket engines in a single day. China's state-owned space contractor, the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), conducted five reportedly successful rocket engine tests on January 2, showcasing its progress in developing propulsion systems for future space missions. Tests were held at two sites in Beijing and Laiyuan County, Hebei Province, and included hydrogen-oxygen engines, methane-oxygen engines, and other systems. The hydrogen-oxygen engine, which was tested for 100 seconds, is likely intended for the upper stage of a new rocket, possibly linked to the Long March 10, which is designed for lunar missions. CASC also tested a methane-oxygen engine, with reports suggesting its potential use in commercial or heavy-lift rockets like the Long March 9 megarocket. CASC plans to advance engine research for deep-space exploration and heavy-lift rockets. The company, along with its subsidiaries and private Chinese space firms, is expected to introduce new rockets and conduct significant tests in 2025, reflecting China's growing ambitions in space exploration. Space.com 

Blue Origin’s Bezos not bothered by Musk-Trump ties, optimistic about space race. Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos expressed optimism about the incoming administration's space agenda under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and dismissed concerns that SpaceX CEO Elon Musk would use his friendship with Trump to undermine Blue Origin. Bezos emphasized Musk’s public interest motives and his belief in a balanced approach to space exploration, advocating for missions to both the moon and Mars. Bezos spoke ahead of Blue Origin's debut launch of its New Glenn rocket, aiming to challenge SpaceX's dominance in the satellite launch market. While Musk has influenced discussions on focusing solely on Mars missions, Bezos argued for the continuation of NASA's lunar program alongside Mars exploration. Blue Origin, which Bezos founded in 2000, holds a $3 billion NASA contract to land humans on the moon, complementing SpaceX's plans for Mars missions using its Starship rocket. Despite limited discussions with Trump about space, Bezos said he remains optimistic about the direction of American space exploration under the new administration. Reuters

REPORT INFO

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

Read deeply experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion in The Cipher Brief