Report for Monday, February 3, 2025

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Monday, February 3, 2025

Trump says he and Putin could do something ‘significant’ to end Russia’s war in Ukraine

Justice Department fires Jan. 6 prosecutors, FBI agents

Dow Futures Plunge As U.S. Trade War Erupts

How Russia Is Winning the Race to Dominate the Arctic

China condemns Trump’s tariff in measured tones, says 'fentanyl is America's problem'

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

China’s DeepSeek Breakthrough – and What it Means for National Security. China’s AI firm DeepSeek has developed an AI assistant, DeepSeek-R1, rivaling top U.S. models at a fraction of the cost. This has raised national security concerns, with experts warning of espionage, ideological bias, and cybersecurity threats. Former NSA Deputy Director Rick Ledgett highlighted China's ability to access user data under its intelligence laws. Former CIA Deputy Director Jennifer Ewbank warned of AI-driven influence operations and risks from easily "jailbroken" models. Chip Usher, formerly of the CIA, emphasized the urgency of monitoring China’s rapid AI advancements. The U.S. Navy has banned DeepSeek’s use, while Microsoft faces scrutiny over hosting its model. The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump says he and Putin could do something ‘significant’ toward ending Russia’s war in Ukraine. President Donald Trump said Friday in the Oval Office that he and Vladimir Putin could take “significant” steps to end Russia’s war on Ukraine. “We will be speaking, and I think will perhaps do something that’ll be significant,” he told reporters, adding, “That war would have not started if I was president.” Trump refused to confirm if he had spoken directly with Putin but claimed discussions were already happening with Russia. In a January Fox News interview, he ridiculed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “talking so brave” while depending on U.S. aid, saying, “They were brave, but we gave them billions.” On Saturday, Trump again expressed optimism. “We have meetings and talks scheduled with various parties, including Ukraine and Russia. And I think those discussions are actually going pretty well,” Trump said. Associated Press Politico EU RFE/RL

Zelensky says excluding Ukraine from US-Russia talks about war is ‘very dangerous.’  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Saturday that excluding Ukraine from U.S.-Russia negotiations would be “very dangerous” and emphasized the need for direct discussions between Kyiv and Washington on a ceasefire plan. He dismissed Moscow’s interest in peace talks, stating, “Russia does not want to engage in ceasefire talks or discuss any kind of concessions,” and suggested that Trump could pressure Vladimir Putin with energy and banking sanctions. Zelensky urged an in-person meeting with Trump. He also argued that NATO membership is the “cheapest” security guarantee and a strategic win for Trump, asserting, “It is not for Russia to decide who should be in NATO, but for the United States.” On France’s proposal to deploy European forces in Ukraine, he questioned their mandate and effectiveness, saying, “The question is who is in charge?” He also invited U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to visit Ukraine and “see what Russia has done.” Associated Press

Biden administration slowed Ukraine arms shipments until his term was nearly done. Throughout 2024, U.S. arms shipments to Ukraine were stalled by congressional gridlock, internal debates over escalation, and concerns about depleting U.S. stockpiles. Aid delays left Ukrainian troops outgunned and unable to hold regained territory, with Russian forces advancing by an estimated 20 square kilometers per day by year's end. While deliveries surged after Donald Trump’s election victory, U.S. assistance in Biden’s final months only reached pre-2023 levels. By late 2024, just 30% of promised armored vehicles had arrived. Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandra Ustinova criticized the slow pace, saying, “Every time we're asking for something, it comes six, nine months later, when the war has already changed.” The Biden administration eventually eased restrictions, allowing Kyiv to use American weapons to strike inside Russia, but the delays had already cost Ukraine valuable ground. With Trump now in office and openly skeptical of continued aid, Ukraine faces fresh uncertainty. His administration has frozen foreign aid, and Kyiv fears he may push for a settlement favoring Russia. Reuters

Gen. Keith Kellogg: ‘It’s in the U.S. national security interest to get the Russia-Ukraine war resolved.’ Retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, speaking with Fox News on Friday, stressed that resolving Russia’s war on Ukraine “is in the U.S. national security interest” and expressed confidence in Donald Trump’s ability to succeed. “He knows exactly what he is doing, where to apply pressure, where not to apply pressure,” Kellogg said. “He will create leverage, both with the Ukrainians and with the Russians.” He suggested that Trump could stiffen sanctions on Russia and continue arming Ukraine. On a 10-point scale, he rated sanctions on Russia as only a 6 and enforcement even lower, with a 3. He framed the war as a broader geopolitical challenge, noting Moscow’s closer alliance with China, Iran, and North Korea. “That wasn’t there before,” he claimed. He highlighted the U.S. financial commitment of $174 billion since Russia’s all-out invasion in 2022, the devastation of many Ukrainian cities, and “over 1 million (Russian and Ukrainian) soldiers killed or wounded.” Fox News

U.S. wants Ukraine to hold elections following a ceasefire. The Trump administration is considering pushing Ukraine to hold elections by the end of 2025 if a ceasefire with Russia is reached. Trump's envoy, Keith Kellogg, said elections "need to be done," arguing, "Most democratic nations have elections in their time of war." Kyiv has resisted, citing security risks and Russian interference. President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukraine could hold elections this year if the fighting ends and strong security guarantees are in place to deter Russia from renewing hostilities. A Ukrainian government source warned that Vladimir Putin “is setting a trap, claiming that if Ukraine doesn't hold elections, he can later ignore any agreements.” Former U.S. officials cautioned that lifting martial law could weaken Zelensky, trigger instability, and "play into Putin’s hands." An ex-Western official said lifting martial law could allow soldiers to leave the military and prompt more draft-age men to "run for the border." Reuters 

Ukraine says U.S. push for truce, elections is a 'failed plan' unless it consists of more. Ukraine dismissed a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire and elections as a "failed plan" if it offers nothing more, presidential aide Dmytro Lytvyn said Sunday. The comment follows a statement by Keith Kellogg, Donald Trump’s top Ukraine adviser, suggesting elections could be held by year-end if a truce is reached. Kyiv insists on security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression and opposes holding elections under martial law. "But we remember that President Trump, in his meetings with President Zelensky, spoke deeply and wisely about the situation and what could actually pressure Putin," Lytvyn said, calling it important to move quickly to "real work between teams on a concrete plan to end the war and ensure lasting peace.” Reuters

With Trump, Ukraine renews appeal to seize Russia’s frozen billions. Ukraine is pressing President Donald Trump to support confiscating nearly $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, mostly held in Europe, to fund its defense and reconstruction. With U.S. military aid in doubt, Kyiv hopes Trump’s transactional approach could sway reluctant European nations, such as Germany and France, which fear legal and financial repercussions. Ukrainian officials see Trump as uniquely positioned to pressure allies, while figures like European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas back the move. Trump’s special envoy, Keith Kellogg, called the idea worth discussing. Kyiv argues that using Russian money for U.S.-made weapons could appeal to Trump. Some European diplomats suggest the assets could be a bargaining chip in future peace talks. Meanwhile, the West has begun using interest from the assets for Ukraine, but complete confiscation remains uncertain due to European resistance. Washington Post

Ukraine’s front could collapse in months, UK warned. Senior UK officials and intelligence sources warn that Ukraine's front line could collapse within six months due to dwindling ammunition supplies, particularly 155mm shells. Former Conservative leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, after meeting Ukrainian officials in Kyiv, relayed their concerns that Russia’s superior firepower allows it to fire four shells for every Ukrainian round. “Ukraine is losing the war. For all the Russian losses, Ukraine is losing ground daily,” Duncan said a top Ukrainian intelligence official told him during a briefing. Ukrainian MP Oleksii Honcharenko echoed the warnings. “If nothing changes, the front line may begin to collapse, and there will be problems,” Honcharenko said. If the front fails, analysts fear Russia could overrun eastern and central Ukraine, forcing President Volodymyr Zelensky into exile and enabling the Kremlin to install a puppet regime. The UK’s foreign secretary and prime minister have been briefed, with calls for increased military aid. Conservative MPs stress that Europe must act decisively, as Russia's ambitions extend beyond Ukraine. The Daily Mail

Police in Ukraine's Pokrovsk plead with reluctant residents to leave. As Russian forces advance on Pokrovsk, Ukrainian police struggle to evacuate the remaining 7,000 residents from a pre-war population of 60,000. The “White Angel” police unit pleads with civilians, using video calls with family members to persuade them. Many refuse, citing age, pets, or fear of the unknown. The city, battered by artillery and drone strikes, is key to Ukraine’s eastern supply lines. Its fall could allow Russia to push further west into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Reuters

The private sector is on the front line. Russia’s war on Ukraine has shown how major tech firms, including SpaceX, Microsoft, AWS, and Palantir, played a critical role in securing digital infrastructure, often at their discretion and cost. Ukraine’s reliance on Starlink after Russia’s cyberattacks and Microsoft’s early malware warnings highlight a new battlefield where private companies provide essential services. Unlike traditional war contractors, these firms acted independently, raising concerns about future conflicts where national and corporate interests may diverge—especially in a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. U.S. firms have deeper economic ties to China than they did to Russia, complicating their willingness to assist Taiwan. The U.S. government must pre-position digital infrastructure and formalize partnerships to ensure corporate cooperation before conflicts arise. This includes securing cloud storage, satellite communications, and AI-driven analytics. Without government involvement, future wars may see critical services dictated by corporate interests rather than national security needs. Foreign Affairs

Ukraine’s defense sector is in disarray. Ukraine’s defense procurement agency, responsible for over $7 billion in military purchases, has been frozen due to a leadership dispute between Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and agency head Maryna Bezrukova. Umerov seeks to dismiss Bezrukova, citing “unsatisfactory” results, claiming the agency failed to fulfill 47% of its obligations. However, the agency’s supervisory board extended her contract while awaiting an audit by NATO, which is expected to take six months. Critics warn the timing threatens international trust. “If I were Russia, I would have invented such sabotage to ruin international support for Ukraine,” said Daria Kaleniuk, the executive director of Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Action Center. European allies and the Group of Seven urge a swift resolution. Bezrukova defended her strategy of prioritizing long-term contracts and eliminating corrupt middlemen, reducing intermediaries in arms deals from 81% to 12%. A European diplomat warned that dismantling the agency would set Ukraine’s partners “back to square one.” Bezrukova has remained in office, awaiting President Volodymyr Zelensky’s response. “If Umerov had a mandate from Zelensky for all of this, I would not survive professionally here,” she said. “And I’m still here.” Washington Post

Defense Ministry insists arms procurement chief Bezrukova is fired. Maryna Bezrukova, head of Ukraine's Defense Procurement Agency, was dismissed on Friday over alleged procurement failures, poor planning, and classified leaks, the Defense Ministry said. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov suspended her on Jan. 24 despite a supervisory board vote to extend her contract. Bezrukova called the move destructive, warning of supply disruptions. Critics, including the Anti-Corruption Action Center, accused the ministry of a "hostile takeover." The National Anti-Corruption Bureau launched an investigation into Umerov for possible abuse of power. Arsen Zhumadilov was named interim director. Kyiv Independent 

Syrskyi condemns recent violence against draft officers, calls for investigation. Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi on Monday condemned recent violent attacks against enlistment officers, urging a full investigation. He cited three incidents: a draft officer shot dead in Poltava Oblast on Friday, an explosion injuring service members in Rivne on Saturday, and another blast wounding a soldier in Pavlohrad, also on Saturday. Syrskyi stressed the need for public support, as Ukraine struggles with mobilization efforts amid battlefield losses and corruption schemes to evade service. He called for justice, emphasizing that national defense relies on respect for the military. Two suspects in the killing of the draft officer have been detained. The attack occurred at a fuel station near Pyriatyn while conscripts were being escorted to a training center. The suspect, wearing a balaclava and military pants, threatened the officer with a hunting rifle, shot him when he refused to hand over his weapon and fled with an assault rifle alongside a conscript. Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent

Ukrainian drone strikes trigger fires at major oil and gas facilities in Russia. Ukraine launched a drone strike Monday on Russian energy facilities, triggering fires at the Lukoil-operated Volgograd oil refinery and Gazprom’s Astrakhan gas processing plant. Russia’s defense ministry claimed 70 drones were intercepted, but debris caused fires. The Volgograd refinery, the largest in southern Russia, processes 300,000 barrels daily. In Astrakhan, Governor Igor Babushkin confirmed damage to a condensate processing unit. Ukraine’s Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko said the gas plant was hit. Russian aviation authorities briefly suspended flights in several regions. Kyiv views such strikes as justified retaliation, while Moscow calls them acts of terrorism. Reuters

Ukrainian Drone Surge Highlights Russian Oil Refining Risk. Ukraine has intensified drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, with recent attacks on facilities in Volgograd, Ryazan, and Nizhny Novgorod, aiming to disrupt Russia’s fuel supply and weaken its war effort. The Ryazan refinery has halted operations, while the extent of damage to Volgograd remains unclear. Analysts say Russia can still manage the disruptions by shifting production, but sustained attacks could create long-term challenges. Ukrainian officials emphasize that targeting Russian energy infrastructure is crucial to reducing Moscow’s ability to fund and sustain its military operations. Meanwhile, the U.S. has imposed its toughest sanctions yet on Russian oil companies, including Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, aiming to curb Russia’s ability to market its crude. These restrictions, effective by March, could further squeeze Russia’s energy revenues. However, Russia continues to reroute exports to China, India, and Turkey, mitigating the impact of Western sanctions while Kyiv escalates pressure on Moscow’s key economic sectors. Russian petrochemicals firm Sibur said Friday it suspended shipments from its Kstovo plant after a Ukrainian drone strike. Bloomberg Reuters

Ukraine deploys long-range drones capable of 2,000-kilometer strike. Ukraine has deployed a long-range drone capable of traveling 2,000 kilometers and carrying a 250-kilogram bomb, the Unmanned Systems Forces announced on Friday. The military did not disclose specifics but called it a “unique development.” Ukraine has used drones to target Russian military-industrial sites, oil refineries, and ammunition depots. Despite Russian claims of shooting them down, explosions at key sites suggest otherwise. Operated by Ukraine’s 14th Regiment of Unmanned Aircraft Systems, the drones have conducted dozens of missions. In 2024, Ukraine produced over 30,000 bomber drones, reflecting a broader shift toward drone warfare. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine says it's developing upgraded versions of the Chinese-made Mavic drone. Ukraine has developed four upgraded versions of the Chinese-made Mavic drone in response to China limiting exports of key components. The drones, created by three domestic developers under the government-backed Brave1 program, meet NATO standards and are already used on the front lines. They offer improved resistance to Russian electronic warfare and enhanced reconnaissance capabilities. The Shmavik drone can operate for 60 minutes with a range of 9.3 miles, while the Ukropter has a heavier payload and greater speed. Experts say these upgrades are crucial as short-range drones have become as important as artillery. However, challenges remain in scaling up production, and Ukraine may still rely on Chinese components. Analysts say breaking dependency on China is beneficial but warn that Ukraine must manufacture these drones efficiently to meet battlefield demand. The move underscores Kyiv’s push for greater self-sufficiency in military technology amid ongoing supply constraints. Business Insider

Warm weather is Ukraine's ally against Russian attacks on the energy sector. Unseasonably warm weather and Ukraine’s resilience have prevented an energy crisis this winter despite Russian attacks. Predictions of widespread blackouts did not materialize as Ukraine improved grid repairs and fortified infrastructure. The Environment Ministry declared “no climatic winter” this year, reducing energy demand. Russia has destroyed nearly half of Ukraine’s pre-war capacity, but swift repairs, better air defense, and international aid kept electricity flowing. Six large-scale Russian attacks since mid-November failed to plunge Ukraine into crisis. With colder temperatures expected, Ukraine seeks to expand backup power stations to stabilize its grid amid continued Russian strikes. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 2, injure 21 over past day. Russian attacks on Ukraine over the past day killed two civilians and injured 21, regional officials reported on Monday. Strikes in Kherson Oblast killed one and wounded 13, including two children. Another was killed in Donetsk Oblast. Ukraine's air defenses downed 38 of 71 Shahed drones overnight. Kyiv Independent

Russian air attack kills 18 in Ukraine Saturday as gas infrastructure targeted. Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine early Saturday, killing 18 people and damaging energy infrastructure. A missile struck an apartment building in Poltava, killing 14, including two children. Authorities said 22 people were rescued from the rubble. Three police officers were killed in Sumy, and another civilian died in Kharkiv. Russia targeted gas facilities in multiple regions, including Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 56 drones but did not disclose missile interceptions. The attack follows Moscow’s strikes on Ukraine’s power grid, which have caused temporary outages. President Volodymyr Zelensky renewed calls for better air defense support. With nearly daily air raids, Moscow has escalated its attacks. Poltava, regularly targeted, saw its deadliest strike in September, killing 51 at a military institute. Reuters Kyiv Independent 

Russian missiles strike Odesa’s historic center, injuring 7. Russian missiles struck Odesa’s historic center on Friday, injuring seven people and damaging landmarks, including the Bristol Hotel and the Philharmonic concert hall. President Volodymyr Zelensky called it a “deliberate strike” and stressed the need for stronger air defenses. Odesa Governor Oleh Kiper said Russia used a missile capable of penetrating concrete, targeting civilian structures. Debris fell near the Opera House, and museums were also affected. Odesa, a UNESCO World Heritage site, has been a frequent target of Russian strikes since the start of the full-scale war. Kyiv Independent Reuters

Key Russian, North Korean officers killed in Ukraine's strike on Kursk Oblast command post, Zelensky says, Ukrainian forces struck a Russian command post in Rylsk, Kursk Oblast on FRiday, killing dozens of Russian and North Korean officers, President Volodymyr Zelensky told the Associated Press on Saturday. He described the strike as a "complex attack" using missiles and other weapons. Zelensky also claimed Russia had deployed 12,000 North Korean troops to Kursk, with over 4,000 lost. Kyiv hopes its presence in Kursk will strengthen its position in future peace talks. Kyiv Independent

Russian vice governor and military commander killed in Kursk Oblast. Sergei Yefremov, vice governor of Russia’s Primorsky Krai and commander of the Tiger volunteer unit, was killed on Sunday when his vehicle hit a mine in Kursk Oblast, according to Russian Telegram channels Astra and Mash. Another officer also died. Yefremov took command of the unit in August 2024. Ukraine launched a limited incursion into Kursk Oblast on Aug. 6, 2024, briefly capturing 1,300 square kilometers before losing half of it. Fighting continues as Ukraine seeks leverage in peace talks. Kyiv Independent

Moscow blast kills wanted Ukrainian in apparent assassination. Armen Sarkisyan, 46, accused by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) of organizing assassinations in Kyiv, was killed in a Moscow explosion on Monday. The blast at the Scarlet Sails residential complex injured at least four others. Sarkisyan founded the pro-Russian Arbat battalion in Donetsk Oblast after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The SBU linked him to fugitive ex-President Viktor Yanukovych and the Federal Security Service (FSB). The explosion follows prior targeted killings in Russia, including Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov in December. Ukraine has been tied to past assassinations, such as Daria Dugina’s 2022 car bombing and pro-war blogger Vladlen Tatarsky’s 2023 killing. Sarkisyan, a former crime boss, had been wanted by Ukraine since 2014 for organizing murders and hiring thugs to attack protesters of the EuroMaidan Revolution that forced Kremlin-backed Yanukovych to flee power. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine and Russia trade blame for a deadly strike on a boarding school in the Kursk region. Ukraine and Russia blamed each other for a missile strike on a boarding school in Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, on Saturday that killed at least four people. Ukraine claims Russia launched an aerial bomb, while Russia alleges Kyiv's forces targeted the school with a missile. The facility housed evacuees, including elderly and infirm individuals. Kursk has seen intense fighting since Ukraine’s cross-border advance last August. Both sides deny targeting civilians, though thousands have been killed since Russia’s 2022 invasion. Reuters Kyiv Independent

Kherson civilians targeted by Russian drones: ‘We’re hunted for sport.’ Russian drones are systematically hunting civilians in Kherson, killing commuters, the elderly, and emergency workers. Dubbed a “drone safari,” the attacks are deliberate and often filmed for Russian Telegram channels. Victims describe drones hovering close before dropping grenades. Since August, 12,000 drones have crossed the Dnipro River, killing 64 civilians and wounding 609. Local authorities are investing in defenses, but Russia is adapting with fiber-optic drones. Medical staff are frequent targets, with 23 ambulances destroyed. The attacks resemble a video game to Russian operators, who mock their victims online. Survivors live in fear, finding temporary safety only in rain and darkness. The Times

Ukraine foils Russian-backed plot to blow up Rivne Oblast railway, SBU says. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) announced on Monday that it thwarted a Russian-backed sabotage plot targeting a railway in Rivne Oblast. A 23-year-old suspect was caught planting explosives near tracks used for military transport. He allegedly worked for Russian intelligence and had gathered information on military sites. He faces life imprisonment. Kyiv Independent

Russia’s New Naval Base Threatens to Drag Georgia into Ukraine War. Moscow has announced plans to establish a permanent naval base at the port of Ochamchire in Abkhazia, a Russian-controlled region of Georgia along the Black Sea coast. This move has raised concerns about drawing Georgia into the war in Ukraine. The base's strategic location could enhance Russia's naval capabilities in the Black Sea, increasing regional tensions. Georgian authorities have criticized the development, viewing it as violating their sovereignty. Wall Street Journal

How Russia profits from arms exports despite sanctions. Despite international sanctions, Russia continues to profit from arms exports by leveraging strategic partnerships and exploiting loopholes. Leaked emails reveal that Saudi Arabia has played a crucial role in sustaining Russia’s arms industry, providing financial backing and enabling deals that bolster Russia’s military capabilities. These exports maintain Russia’s defense sector and serve as instruments of influence, strengthening alliances and securing leverage in international forums like the United Nations. Additionally, Russia has managed to acquire Western weapons technologies through its arms sales to Saudi Arabia, further enhancing its military strength. The resilience of Russia’s arms industry amid sanctions highlights the difficulties in restricting its global reach and the complexities of enforcing international sanctions effectively. Kyiv Independent 

U.S. foreign aid transformed Ukraine. Its suspension threatens a setback. Donald Trump’s suspension of U.S. foreign aid has halted projects that have shaped Ukraine’s democratic and economic development since 1991. The 90-day freeze affects agencies like the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which has provided over $37 billion in assistance since Russia’s full-scale invasion, funding infrastructure repairs, medical aid, and economic recovery. Photographer Vladyslav Sodel highlighted USAID’s deep integration into Ukrainian life, from refugee support to energy investments. The freeze threatens agriculture, media, and humanitarian programs. Experts warn it could worsen migration pressures and limit global health initiatives. Ukrainian organizations reliant on grants, including media and veteran support groups, are already facing closures. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine gas transit row intensifies as Hungary threatens to block EU sanctions renewal. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban threatened to veto the European Union’s next sanctions renewal against Russia in six months unless Brussels helps restart Russian gas flows through Ukraine. While Hungary receives Russian gas via TurkStream, Orban insists Ukraine’s halted transit raises energy prices. Slovakia also demands EU intervention, citing gas storage issues and lost transit fees. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico warned of cutting emergency electricity to Ukraine and reducing aid if Kyiv does not cooperate. Ukraine’s foreign ministry accused Fico of spreading Russian propaganda, prompting Slovakia to summon Ukraine’s ambassador. The European Commission has pledged discussions but maintains the gas is unnecessary. Reuters

NASAMS 3 air-defense system donated by Canada finally defends the skies over Kyiv. Canada’s NASAMS 3 air-defense system is now operational in Kyiv, helping counter Russian attacks. In two months, it has downed three drones and a cruise missile while tracking incoming threats for Ukraine’s broader defense network. However, a 20-month delay in its delivery—caused by Ottawa’s slow funding transfer and bureaucratic hurdles—meant lives were lost during earlier airstrikes. Operators stress the system’s life-saving role and lament that earlier deployment could have prevented more civilian deaths. Despite its effectiveness, Ukraine still faces relentless Russian drone and missile barrages. Globe and Mail

In Kursk, Ukrainians try to sway Russian minds. And film it. A Ukrainian military unit in Russia’s Kursk region is documenting its occupation while trying to influence local civilians. Tasked with delivering aid and countering Russian propaganda, the unit films interactions with residents, many of whom are Soviet-era retirees cut off from communications. Col. Oleksii Dmytrashkivskyi argues they are “planting seeds of truth,” though ethical concerns remain over filming civilians. Some Russians are reconsidering their views, but skepticism persists. Meanwhile, Russia claims Ukrainian mistreatment of civilians, a charge Kyiv denies. The documentary aims to show Ukraine’s role as an occupier and its struggle to shift Russian perspectives. Washington Post.

One Ukrainian Brigade Lost Entire Companies In ‘Futile’ Attacks On Worthless Treelines. Ukraine’s 92nd Assault Brigade has been effective in defensive operations against Russian attacks in Kursk, inflicting heavy casualties. However, according to a Ukrainian veteran known as Constantine, some commanders have recklessly ordered offensive assaults in unfavorable conditions, leading to entire companies being lost trying to capture insignificant treelines. The 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive succeeded because it followed a prolonged defensive phase that depleted Russian forces, unlike Ukraine’s failed 2023 push. Constantine warns Ukraine to hold defensive positions until Russia is sufficiently weakened, preserving experienced troops for a future counteroffensive when conditions are more favorable. Forbes

‘There is no future’: Even a potential ceasefire sparks little hope in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian soldiers and civilians in the east express deep skepticism about a ceasefire, fearing it would allow Russia to regroup and resume its advance. Battalion commander Volodymyr Sablyn warns that past ceasefires only facilitated further Russian offensives. Moscow’s forces are rapidly advancing on key hubs like Pokrovsk, increasing anxiety among outmatched troops. Civilians in frontline towns, exhausted by a decade of war, feel abandoned, with some resigned to Russian rule. A resident of Slovyansk, reflecting on years of turmoil, sees no future, only a desperate hope for the bombing to stop. CNN

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, Jan. 31-Sunday, Feb. 2. SUNDAY– Russian forces reportedly struck a dormitory holding Russian civilians in Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, on Saturday, while Russian authorities denied responsibility and blamed Ukraine. Russia continues to illegally deport Ukrainian children to occupied Crimea and Russia under the pretext of evacuation and rehabilitation programs. Russian forces are forcibly mobilizing civilians in occupied Ukraine into the Russian military, violating the Geneva Convention. SATURDAY–A Russian Black Sea Fleet drone destroyed a Ukrainian naval drone, marking a potential shift in Russia’s approach to countering Ukraine’s naval capabilities. FRIDAY–The UK, Finland, and Czechia announced new military aid packages for Ukraine, with the UK providing £2 billion primarily for air defense, Finland contributing nearly €200 million, and Czechia considering an artillery ammunition initiative. Russian forces are intensifying efforts to push Ukrainian troops from the east bank of the Oskil River, with recent advances near Dvorichna and Novomlynsk. Elements of Russia’s 6th Combined Arms Army are leading attacks north of Kupyansk, deploying mechanized units and artillery to expand their foothold. The Russian 1st Guards Tank Army is advancing east and south of Kupyansk, aiming to cross the Oskil River and pressure Borova. Russia appears to be refining its strategy of slow, methodical envelopments of frontline towns, replicating its success in Avdiivka, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces are engaged in a months-long campaign to envelop Kupyansk, prioritizing incremental territorial gains over rapid offensives. This gradual approach relies on sustained manpower and equipment. Russian forces are tightening their grip on the Ukrainian pocket west of Kurakhove, advancing near Sukhi Yaly and targeting key withdrawal routes.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Kupyansk, Lyman, and Velyka Novosilka. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War Saturday-Institute for the Study of War Friday-Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Ukraine will showcase game-changing defense tech innovations at Kyiv forum. Nataliia Kushnerska, project lead of Ukraine’s Brave1 defense tech cluster, highlights Ukraine’s growing role in global defense innovation ahead of the Defense Tech Innovations Forum 2025 in Kyiv on Feb. 18-19. She notes that Ukraine’s breakthroughs in drone warfare have forced Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to withdraw and enabled the country to break Moscow’s naval blockade. The defense tech sector also focuses on cost-effective air defense solutions, including interceptor drones. The upcoming forum will showcase AI-powered robots, naval drones, and counter-hypersonic missile technologies, fostering international collaboration in the rapidly evolving landscape of modern warfare. Business Ukraine

Opinion: Counting up the costs if the U.S. chooses to lose in Ukraine. George Will argues that losing in Ukraine is a choice the U.S. cannot afford. He warns that a Ukrainian defeat would embolden Vladimir Putin, increase NATO’s military burden, and require massive U.S. defense spending. A report from the American Enterprise Institute estimates that preventing Ukraine’s collapse in 2026 would cost far less than the long-term expense of countering a strengthened Russia. Will contends that Ukraine needs more military aid to create an unendurable cost for Putin. While NATO membership may be unrealistic, increased military support is essential to deter future Russian aggression and avoid a far greater conflict. Washington Post

Opinion: What Putin wants from Trump. David Kirichenko argues that Vladimir Putin sees Donald Trump’s return to the presidency as a chance to break Russia’s international isolation and reassert global influence. Putin flatters Trump, hoping for a high-profile meeting to strengthen his image domestically and abroad. Facing economic struggles and battlefield failures, Putin seeks direct talks with Trump rather than Ukraine. Eager for a deal, Trump might entertain negotiations that favor Russian interests, diverging from ex-President Joe Biden’s firm support for Kyiv. Putin’s ultimate goal is a U.S.-Russia summit that sidelines Ukraine, reinforcing his imperialist ambitions. The Hill

Opinion: Norway should cede its war windfall to Ukraine. Håvard Halland and Knut Anton Mork argue that Norway has profited excessively from the war while failing to support Ukraine adequately. Since Russia’s invasion, Norway has gained €108 billion ($113 billion) from rising natural gas prices but allocated only €3 billion to Ukraine in its 2025 budget. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finance Minister Trygve Slagsvold Vedum claim the profits from market forces should go into Norway’s sovereign wealth fund. The authors call this justification short-sighted, arguing Norway’s windfall should be fully transferred to Ukraine to support its defense and reconstruction, benefiting all of Europe. Kyiv Independent

Opinion: Russia’s war is the shop window for the West’s resolve. Sir Iain Duncan Smith argues that Ukraine’s fight is a test of Western resolve, warning that failure to support Kyiv could embolden other authoritarian regimes. He describes a dire situation on the front, with Ukrainian forces outgunned and struggling with ammunition shortages. Based on an intelligence briefing, he warns Ukraine may only have six months before collapse, leading to a Russian takeover and a puppet government in Kyiv. He criticizes Western hesitation, asserting that a weak response will signal to Beijing that the West lacks the will to defend Taiwan. The Daily Mail

Opinion: Ukraine’s Victory Will Ensure Critical Mineral Security.  Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna argues that Ukraine’s victory is essential for securing global access to critical minerals vital for technology, energy, and defense. Ukraine holds vast reserves of titanium, lithium, and other key materials, but they are near the front lines. If Russia captures them, China, Iran, and North Korea could exploit these resources, consolidating power in key industries and threatening Western security. Tsahkna urges the West to support Ukraine to prevent authoritarian regimes from gaining leverage. The National Interest

Opinion: Trump sabotages his own idea for lasting peace in Ukraine. Lee Hockstader argues that Donald Trump’s push for European troops to enforce a Ukraine ceasefire is unrealistic and self-defeating. While Trump pressures Europe to take more responsibility for its security, his aggressive stance alienates allies rather than encouraging cooperation. European nations would struggle to muster the forces needed—Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky estimates 200,000 troops—while Trump’s threats of tariffs and insults deepen divisions. Hockstader warns that Trump’s approach risks abandoning Ukraine, destabilizing Europe, and emboldening adversaries like China. If Trump truly wants a European security solution, he must stop undermining it. Otherwise, he may face his own Afghanistan-like failure. Washington Post

THE AMERICAS

Trump’s assertions of authority overshadow Congress. Now all eyes are on the judiciary. In his first days in office President Donald Trump has made sweeping claims of authority, and Congress has walked off the field. If the courts uphold his actions, he will have centralized unprecedented authority over the federal budget, workforce and policies. Trump unilaterally suspended immigration laws, fired watchdogs, offered 2 million federal employees buyouts,  paused spending on Congressionally mandated programs and dared Congress to take him to court. The Supreme Court, with three members Trump appointed in his first term, could rebalance the powers of the federal government’s three branches. A test of Congress’s independence is coming up when the Senate decides whether to confirm two nominees who many experts charge are unqualified:  Bobby Kennedy Jr, for health and human services secretary, and Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence. Wall Street Journal Washington Post

Musk moves in hard and fast.Elon Musk and his allies have gotten direct access to the government payment system that distributes trillions of dollars to Americans each year. They forced their way past security officials to get into classified systems and floors at the U.S. Agency for International Development. The Department of Government Efficiency, created by Trump’s executive order and run by Musk, is not a true department but a team inside the executive branch.  It is a mystery, with an unlisted staff and unknown ethical standards. Over the weekend, Musk, who is determined to force dramatic changes inside the federal government, posted messages on X claiming, among other things, that terrorist groups had received payments processed by the Treasury Department. That didn’t happen. He accused career Treasury officials of routinely making illegal payments. “USAID is a criminal organization,” he wrote in one post. “Time for it to die.” Trump will soon issue an executive order moving USAID into the State Department. On Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent granted DOGE representatives access to the Treasury Department’s payment system, which distributes entitlement benefits, grants and tax refunds. David A. Lebryk, a Treasury career employee who had been acting secretary before Bessent arrived, had refused to turn over access to Musk’s surrogates, so Trump officials placed Lebryk on administrative leave. He announced his retirement Friday. Wall Street Journal   New York Times Washington Post   Reuters   Associated Press New York Times Wall Street Journal Reuters Financial Times 

Musk says he is working to shut down ‘beyond repair’ USAID. The Trump administration is moving aggressively to shut down the U.S. Agency for International Development, the U.S.’s main foreign aid agency, as part of a broader cost-cutting push led by Elon Musk. Workers were abruptly told to stay home Monday, and USAID’s headquarters has been cleared of logos and visuals. Two top security officials were removed after resisting access requests from Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. USAID, which disbursed $72 billion in 2023, is vital for global aid, including HIV treatments and refugee support, but Musk and Trump claim it’s “beyond repair.” The move has raised concerns about U.S. soft power and governance stability. Reuters CNN

Justice Department fires Jan. 6 prosecutors, FBI agents. The Justice Department abruptly fired dozens of prosecutors who worked on criminal cases of people who participated in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, POLITICO reported. One of the fired prosecutors who handled some of the 1,600 Jan. 6 criminal cases stemming from the riot said about 25 to 30 colleagues were fired.  During the four-year criminal investigation of the Jan. 6 attack, the Justice Department tapped hundreds of prosecutors from across the country to pursue those cases. President Donald Trump shut down the Capitol riot investigation on his first day in office, granted mass pardons to all Jan. 6 rioters and ordered the department to drop the charges in pending Jan. 6 cases.  ​​Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove Thursday told the top federal prosecutors in each state to compile a list of all department lawyers and FBI agents who worked on the Capitol riot case, the largest Justice Department probe in modern U.S. history.  Bove ordered eight FBI officials to resign or be fired. On Friday, the FBI Agents Association,which numbers more than 14,000 active and former FBI agents, called the moves "outrageous." "Dismissing potentially hundreds of agents would severely weaken the bureau's ability to protect the country from national security and criminal threats and will ultimately risk setting up the bureau and its new leadership for failure," the association added.  Reuters Politico 

Trade war ignites as Trump levies tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. The White House on Saturday announced 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, touching off a trade war. President Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that the tariffs will be imposed under emergency economic authority never before used for tariffs “because of the major threat of illegal aliens and deadly drugs killing our Citizens, including fentanyl.”  The tariffs have a retaliation clause that will increase penalties if the trading partners strike back at the U.S. with tariffs. Trump said Sunday, "We may have short term some little pain, and people understand that. But long term, the United States has been ripped off by virtually every country in the world," he said. Wall Street JournalFinancial Times Bloomberg Reuters Reuters Washington Post New York Times Reuters 

Canada and Mexico Move to Retaliate for US Tariffs.  Mexico and Canada immediately vowed to impose tariffs as retaliation. Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau announced retaliatory tariffs starting with 25 percent tariffs on approximately $20 billion worth of U.S. goods on Tuesday, with $85 billion more to follow within three weeks. China would file a case against the United States at the World Trade Organization and also vowed unspecified “corresponding countermeasures to firmly safeguard its rights and interests.” Chinese officials pointed out that in 2019 when it imposed stringent regulations on fentanyl-related substances.   New York Times Globe and Mail New York Times Reuters  Financial Times Reuters  

European Commission promises ‘firm’ response to Trump’s tariff threats as bloc braces for trade war. The European Union on Sunday warned that it will retaliate if U.S. President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on E.U. goods, following his recent tariff measures against Canada, Mexico, and China. The European Commission, the bloc’s executive body, criticized the potential tariffs, citing economic disruption and inflation. It also vowed to respond firmly to any unfair actions. French Industry Minister Marc Ferracci called for a "biting" response targeting key U.S. products to create leverage in negotiations, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized the importance of open trade, though he did acknowledge the bloc’s readiness to act. Other EU leaders, like Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, advocated for cautious diplomacy, while figures such as Bernd Lange and Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt condemned Trump’s actions as violations of international law and urged Brussels not to yield to pressure. The E.U. aims to protect its economic interests while maintaining global trade stability. Politico EU Politico EU

ANALYSIS–To Trump, Tariffs Are Not a Means but an End. President Donald Trump has embraced tariffs as a core economic policy rather than a negotiating tool, aiming to replace income taxes with trade duties. On Feb. 1, he imposed broad tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, citing fentanyl trafficking and strategic advantage. His vision echoes the Gilded Age, prioritizing economic nationalism over globalization. The move effectively dismantles the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which had replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Economists warn tariffs will hurt productivity and growth, but Trump remains convinced they will enrich the U.S. Treasury. Allies fear retaliation, while critics warn of trade wars. New York Times

One Response to Trump’s Tariffs: Trade That Excludes the U.S. As President Donald Trump imposes new tariffs—25% on Mexico and Canada, 10% on China—other nations are forging trade agreements without the U.S. The European Union recently finalized major deals with South America, Switzerland, and Mexico, while also resuming talks with Malaysia. BRICS has expanded to include Indonesia, and ASEAN is strengthening ties with China and the Gulf Cooperation Council. Britain has joined the trans-Pacific trade bloc, and Latin America is deepening regional trade. Global trade is shifting toward regional blocs, reducing dependence on both the U.S. and China. While trade remains strong, the structure of global commerce is changing. New York Times

Trump’s brutal tariffs far outstrip any he has imposed before. Less than two weeks into his presidency, Donald Trump imposed his most sweeping tariffs yet, enacting 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% on China, effective Tuesday. These far exceed his first-term tariffs, which mainly targeted China and were phased in gradually. This time, Trump used emergency powers to justify the move, citing migration and drug trafficking, though economists warn of price hikes and economic instability. The tariffs cover $900 billion in trade—more than double his previous actions—while Canada, Mexico, and China have vowed retaliation, raising fears of a prolonged global trade war. The Economist

Trump Tariffs Threaten to Upend Global Economic Order. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China threaten to upend the global economic order and could ultimately benefit Beijing. By invoking national security to justify unraveling trade agreements, Trump has created uncertainty that may push other nations closer to China, which offers stability in trade partnerships. The tariffs disrupt supply chains and increase costs for U.S. consumers, while Beijing can position itself as a more reliable economic partner. Analysts warn this could weaken U.S. influence and drive allies to diversify trade away from the U.S., strengthening China’s role in global commerce at America’s expense. New York Times

ANALYSIS–Trump Favors Blunt Force in Dealing with Foreign Allies and Enemies Alike. President Donald Trump has abandoned traditional diplomacy in favor of economic and political coercion, using tariffs and threats to pressure allies and adversaries alike. His latest tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, set for Feb. 4, mark a major escalation, with potential economic fallout. Trump has also suspended foreign aid and floated dismantling the U.S. Agency for International Development, further shifting U.S. influence from soft to hard power. While some see his tactics as effective, critics warn they could alienate allies and push nations toward Russia and China. Trump remains committed to his America First approach, regardless of opposition. New York Times

Panama must cut off Chinese influence of canal, or suffer U.S. action, Rubio warns Mulino. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino that the White House would take “necessary” measures if Panama does not act to curb China’s influence over the Panama Canal. Rubio conveyed President Trump’s concerns about a Hong Kong-based company operating ports near the canal, which Washington views as a violation of the U.S.-Panama treaty. Speaking to reporters on Sunday, Trump asserted that Beijing is “running the Panama Canal.” He said the canal was “foolishly” given to Panama, and that the nation has “violated the agreement, and we're going to take it back, or something very powerful is going to happen." Though he ruled out military action for now, his comments have sparked further controversy over the situation. Mulino agreed to review agreements with Chinese companies, including a 25-year port concession to CK Hutchison Holdings, and announced that Panama will not renew its Belt and Road initiative deal with China. However, he stressed his country’s sovereignty over the canal, stating that military intervention is unnecessary and proposing face-to-face talks with Trump. Despite the aggressive tone implied by the U.S. State Department’s summary of the meeting in Panama City, Muline downplayed the risks that Trump may try to seize the waterway, maintaining that he “did not feel any threat.” China has adamantly denied interfering in canal operations, asserting respect for Panama’s sovereignty. Rubio’s visit, part of a regional tour aimed at countering China’s influence and addressing migration, also included discussions on expanding a U.S.-Panama agreement to manage migrant returns from the Darien Gap. Reuters New York Times Politico New York Times Washington Post Reuters 

U.S. Army identifies soldier in DC plane crash as data reveals helicopter may have been too high. The U.S. Army has identified Captain Rebecca Lobach of Durham, North Carolina, as the third soldier killed in the collision between a Black Hawk helicopter and an American Airlines CRJ700 jet near Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, which resulted in 67 fatalities. The other soldiers killed were Staff Sergeant Ryan Austin O'Hara, 28, and Chief Warrant Officer 2 Andrew Loyd Eaves, 39. Preliminary investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) revealed the jet was at 325 feet during the collision, while the helicopter may have been flying above its 200-foot altitude limit. Radar data suggested it was at 200 feet, though this is unconfirmed. Investigators are examining whether night-vision goggles were in use during the helicopter’s training flight. The air traffic controller had warned the helicopter about the jet two minutes before impact. Recovery efforts are ongoing, with 42 bodies recovered from the Potomac River, and wreckage removal set to begin soon. Reuters Economic Times CBS 

7 killed, including 1 on ground, after medevac jet crashes in Philadelphia. A medevac jet carrying a pediatric patient and her mother crashed into a residential neighborhood in Philadelphia on Friday night, killing all six people on board and one person on the ground. The victims included Mexican nationals: the young patient, her mother, two pilots, a doctor, and a paramedic. The crash also injured at least 22 people on the ground, with five remaining hospitalized and three in critical condition. The accident caused significant damage to 11 homes and multiple vehicles. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has recovered the cockpit voice recorder and the enhanced ground proximity warning system to investigate the cause. Both engines have also been retrieved, and officials are analyzing surveillance footage and eyewitness accounts. Over 150 personnel from local, state, and federal agencies are involved in the response. The young girl had just completed treatment at Shriners Children’s Hospital. CNN CNN Fox News Reuters   

Venezuela to accept deported migrants, Trump announces. The U.S. and Venezuela have reached an agreement allowing the return of tens of thousands of Venezuelan migrants from the U.S., a development that aligns with President Trump’s sweeping deportation plans. The deal was brokered by Trump envoy Richard Grenell during a rare visit to Caracas on Friday, after which he brought back six detained Americans. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro agreed to accept deportees, including members of the violent Tren de Aragua gang, and provide transportation for their return. While no financial concessions were made, the agreement hints at improving U.S.-Venezuela relations, with the White House signaling it won’t penalize Maduro’s authoritarian regime and will continue to allow Western oil companies to operate in Venezuela. This marks a shift from Trump’s previous hardline stance on strongman Maduro, though Washington officially still recognizes Edmundo Gonzalez as Venezuela's president-elect. The deal also reverses Maduro’s earlier refusal to accept deportation flights. Over 600,000 Venezuelans in the U.S. face potential deportation following the revocation of their protected status. Critics worry the agreement may legitimize Maduro’s regime without advancing democracy, while others view it as a pragmatic move. Wall Street Journal New York Times New York Times Deutsche Welle 

How the World Is Reeling From Trump’s Aid Freeze. President Donald Trump’s sweeping freeze on U.S. foreign aid has crippled humanitarian programs worldwide and reshaped geopolitical dynamics. In Sudan, soup kitchens feeding 816,000 people have shut down, while in Thailand, refugees are being turned away from hospitals. South African HIV clinics have shut down. In Uganda, confusion over exemptions has left AIDS patients scrambling for medication. The freeze has also disrupted security cooperation in Africa and intelligence-gathering efforts on terrorist threats. Even with exemptions for “lifesaving” aid, confusion and halted payments have left NGOs and contractors struggling to operate. Meanwhile, China is poised to capitalize on America’s retreat, positioning itself as a more reliable partner for developing nations, potentially shifting the global balance of influence in its favor. New York Times Washington Post Wall Street Journal

Ex-Federal Reserve adviser Rogers arrested for passing trade secrets to China. Former Federal Reserve adviser John Harold Rogers was arrested for allegedly passing confidential trade secrets to China. Prosecutors claim Rogers, who worked in the Fed’s international finance division from 2010 to 2021, provided economic data and interest rate deliberations to Chinese intelligence operatives posing as students. He reportedly received payments, travel perks, and was offered a beach vacation. Rogers faces charges of economic espionage and making false statements. A judge ordered him held until a detention hearing next Tuesday. China denied interference, calling espionage accusations a smear. Reuters Associated Press Washington Post  

Moscow Has $2 Billion Stuck at JPMorgan. The U.S. Isn’t Sure What to Do With It. Russia funneled over $5 billion to Turkey under the guise of funding the Akkuyu nuclear plant but used U.S. banks, including JPMorgan and Citigroup, to sidestep sanctions. The Justice Department froze $2 billion of these funds in 2024, planning a seizure for money laundering and fraud. However, the Biden administration blocked the move to avoid diplomatic fallout with Turkey. With Bashar al-Assad’s fall strengthening Erdoğan’s regional influence, concerns grew over Turkish cooperation with Russia. The Trump administration now faces a decision on whether to revive the case amid broader tensions over sanctions enforcement and financial maneuvering. Wall Street Journal

Saudi Arabia, UAE seen as possible venues for Trump-Putin summit, two Russian sources say. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are being considered by Russia as possible venues for a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, two Russian sources told Reuters on Feb. 3. Trump has expressed readiness to meet Putin to discuss Ukraine, while Putin signaled willingness to engage. Russian officials recently visited both Gulf states, though some in Moscow oppose the idea due to their close U.S. ties. Both Saudi and UAE leaders have maintained neutrality on the Ukraine war and previously mediated prisoner exchanges. No direct U.S.-Russia contacts on summit preparations have been confirmed. Reuters

EUROPE

With Trump’s Backing Uncertain, Europe Scrambles to Shore Up Its Own Defenses. European leaders will meet in Brussels on Monday to discuss bolstering defense spending amid uncertainty over President Trump’s commitment to NATO. Trump has threatened to cut U.S. military aid to Ukraine and pushed allies to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP. NATO is aiming for 3-3.5%. The European Union is exploring joint military funding, but disagreements persist over common debt issuance. Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer will attend, marking the first such participation since Brexit. NATO estimates Europe would need 5-10 years to replace U.S. defense capabilities, making coordination urgent as Russia remains a long-term threat. New York Times

Russia condemns Trump missile defense shield plan, accuses U.S. of plotting to militarize space.  Russia on Friday condemned U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive order to develop an “American Iron Dome” missile defense system, accusing Washington of undermining nuclear deterrence and militarizing space. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the plan threatens arms control talks and aims to counter Russia and China’s nuclear capabilities. The White House framed it as modernizing outdated defenses against emerging threats. Moscow’s criticism marks its harshest against Trump since his return to office. While Trump and Vladimir Putin have expressed interest in a meeting, Russia says it has received no signals from Washington on scheduling talks. Reuters

How Russia Is Winning the Race to Dominate the Arctic. Russia is strengthening its Arctic presence while the U.S. struggles to keep pace. Moscow has reopened Soviet-era bases, conducted Arctic wargames, and increased joint patrols with China. Melting ice is turning the region into a vital shipping and resource hub, with Russia’s Northern Sea Route cutting travel times between Asia and Europe. Meanwhile, U.S. and Canadian infrastructure remains limited. “The Arctic is a region for potential future conflict,” said Russian Northern Fleet Commander Aleksandr Moiseyev. China is deepening cooperation with Russia, investing in energy projects and staging joint military drills, further challenging Western influence in the High North Wall Street Journal 

Three Years After Ukraine Invasion, Europe Still Deals with Energy Crisis. Europe has reduced its reliance on Russian natural gas, cutting it from 35% in 2021 to an estimated 8% by 2025. The shift has been driven by increased imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), mainly from the U.S., alongside a surge in wind and solar power. Norway has replaced Russia as Europe's top gas supplier, but Russian LNG remains a major source. Despite these changes, high energy costs continue to strain households and industries, forcing factory closures and slowing economic growth. Europe remains vulnerable to global LNG market fluctuations, competing with Asia for supplies, and still lacks sufficient domestic production. Renewable energy growth is helping, but storage limitations and seasonal variability pose challenges. European leaders are debating long-term energy policies, including investments in new nuclear plants and LNG terminals, but rebuilding gas reserves each year remains costly. While the worst of the crisis has passed, Europe’s energy security remains fragile. New York Times

Georgian opposition leaders arrested as pro-EU protesters block highway. Police in Georgia arrested several opposition figures, including Nika Melia and former Tbilisi Mayor Giorgi Ugulava, during mass protests in Tbilisi on Sunday demanding new parliamentary elections. Melia was later released on bail, claiming he was assaulted while in custody. Protests reignited after the ruling Georgian Dream party suspended European Union accession talks until 2028. Thousands of demonstrators briefly blocked a motorway, prompting a heavy police response, with reports of beatings and injuries. Authorities warned that road blockades were a criminal offense, and unverified footage showed police in balaclavas using force against protesters. Reuters

German politicians signal to Syrian asylum seekers: It’s time to go home. Germany’s debate over Syrian refugees has intensified, with leading politicians pushing for mass deportations ahead of elections next month. Friedrich Merz, the center-right candidate for chancellor, passed a parliamentary motion advocating for permanent border controls, entry bans for undocumented migrants, and daily deportation flights, including to Syria. The move, supported by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), drew backlash from former chancellor Angela Merkel but aligns with rising anti-immigrant sentiment. Critics warn mass expulsions could harm Germany’s economy, especially in healthcare, where nearly 6,000 Syrian doctors fill shortages. The Bundestag rejected a binding bill to curb family reunifications, but Syrian asylum applications remain frozen. While AfD calls for immediate deportations, Merz proposes distinguishing between integrated workers and those who should leave. Washington Post

Former Polish justice minister arrested in sprawling spyware probe. Former Polish Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro was arrested on Friday amid a probe into the previous government’s use of Pegasus spyware against opposition figures and journalists. Ziobro initially evaded police, surrendering only after a televised attack on Prime Minister Donald Tusk's government. Authorities accuse him of misusing crime victims' funds to finance illegal surveillance from 2017 to 2022, affecting the 2019 elections. The PiS party, which ruled from 2015 to 2023, dismisses the investigation as political persecution. With Polish presidential elections in May, the case has heightened tensions between PiS and Tusk’s administration. The Record Financial Times Politico EU 

Lithuanian president backs Trump’s NATO defense spending goal amid ongoing Russian threat. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda warned that any Ukraine ceasefire must include Kyiv and come with stronger regional defense to counter future Russian aggression. He backed U.S. President Donald Trump’s push for NATO members to spend at least 5% of GDP on defense, calling it necessary for frontline states. Lithuania, bordering Russia and Belarus, is increasing military spending and supports NATO’s Baltic Sentry mission to safeguard undersea infrastructure after recent cable damage. Nausėda emphasized that Lithuania must bolster its defense. “It would be naive to expect others to protect us if we cannot defend ourselves,” he said. Associated Press

Norway Releases Russian-Crewed Ship Suspected of Cutting an Undersea Cable. Norwegian authorities seized the Russian-crewed Silver Dania on Thursday evening, suspecting it had damaged a Sweden-Latvia undersea cable. The ship was brought to Tromsø on Friday morning, but by evening, it was released along with its crew. Prosecutor Ronny Jorgensen said no direct evidence linked the vessel to the sabotage, though the investigation remains ongoing. Sweden separately detained a Bulgarian-owned bulk carrier on Monday over the same incident. Amid rising attacks on Baltic infrastructure, NATO has increased patrols. While Russian involvement is suspected, authorities have yet to present conclusive evidence, and multiple vessels remain under investigation. New York Times

Slovakia bans Georgian volunteer and 9 others from entry as Fico ramps up coup plot accusations. Slovakia on Friday banned Mamuka Mamulashvili, commander of the Georgian Legion fighting for Ukraine, and nine others from entering the country, accusing them of involvement in an opposition-led coup plot. Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has taken a pro-Russian stance, claimed the Georgian Legion was behind efforts to stir protests. He presented photos of Mamulashvili with activists but provided no evidence of a coup attempt. Mamulashvili and activists denied the allegations. Slovakia also detained a Ukrainian national for deportation. Fico faces protests over his policies. Reuters

Putin says ignoring Soviet role in liberation of Nazi death camps is shameful. Russian President Vladimir Putin called it "shameful" Sunday that Soviet contributions to liberating Nazi death camps were ignored, criticizing the exclusion of Russian representatives from Auschwitz's 80th anniversary commemoration. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are among the leaders who attended, but Russia was left out due to its war on Ukraine. The Kremlin leader faces an International Criminal Court warrant for war crimes in Ukraine. Reuters

THE MIDDLE EAST

Netanyahu blows past ceasefire talks deadline to confer with Trump. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu missed Monday’s deadline to begin ceasefire talks with Hamas, instead traveling to Washington to meet with President Donald Trump. The current truce, in place since Jan. 19, is set to expire on March 1, and negotiations for its extension were supposed to start by now. Hamas has sent a delegation to Qatar, but Israel has yet to announce its negotiating team. Netanyahu’s delay has drawn criticism, with some calling it a violation of the agreement. Trump, who supports Palestinian displacement, may push for a policy shift, further complicating the fragile ceasefire’s future. CNN

Release of Palestinian prisoners, some charged with grievous crimes, sparks controversy in Israel, joy in Gaza. Zakaria Zubeidi, a former West Bank militia leader and prominent figure in the Palestinian resistance, was released on Thursday as part of a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas, which involved the exchange of over 100 Palestinian prisoners for Israeli hostages held in Gaza. Zubeidi, accused of orchestrating deadly attacks during the Second Intifada, was welcomed as a hero in Ramallah. A crowd threw him onto their shoulders, put a Palestinian flag into his hands, and cheered wildly. His release, along with other high-profile militants convicted of deadly attacks against Israelis, has sparked controversy in Israel. Among those freed were Sami Jaradat, sentenced to life for directing a 2003 suicide bombing in Haifa that killed 21 people, and Mohammed Abu Warda, convicted of orchestrating bus bombings in Jerusalem in 1996 that killed dozens. The deal, which includes the exchange of over 1,700 Palestinian prisoners for just 33 Israeli hostages, is viewed by officials as a painful but necessary concession to secure the release of Israeli hostages. Families of victims, like Micah Avni, whose father was killed in a 2015 Jerusalem bus attack, expressed frustration over the policy, arguing it could encourage further kidnappings. Zubeidi’s personal story reflects the complexities of the Israeli Palestinian conflict. Once a child actor in a theater group organized by Israeli peace activists, his life took a dramatic turn after Israeli forces killed his mother and brother in 2002. This tragedy fueled his shift toward militancy. The prisoner releases are boosting Palestinian morale after the devastating war in Gaza and the exchange taps into deep emotional ties among those in the war-torn enclave, as many families have relatives who have been imprisoned by Israel. The releases are expected to enhance Hamas’s popularity despite widespread decimation, though some Palestinians question the human cost of their freedom. One freed prisoner named Mohammed al-Tous, liberated after 39 years, expressed regret, saying he would have refused freedom had he known it would come at the expense of so many lives in Gaza. Wall Street Journal

Why do Arab states oppose Trump’s plan to move displaced Palestinians? U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to relocate Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt and Jordan is strongly opposed by Arab leaders, who argue that it would undermine efforts to establish a Palestinian state. Beyond political reasons, however, Arab nations resist this in part due to historical challenges with Palestinian refugees, whose presence has previously fueled regional instability and conflicts. Examples include civil wars in Jordan and Lebanon, in which Palestinian militant groups clashed with local governments and Israel, leading to internal strife and foreign interventions. Arab states are hesitant to repeat the past, to suffer Israeli reprisals for Palestinians assaults at the expense of native populations. Currently, around 5.8 million Palestinians are classified as refugees, many living in camps run by the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA). In countries like Lebanon and Jordan, refugees face restricted rights to maintain the hope of returning to their ancestral homes. Foreign ministers from Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE have rejected forced displacement, citing risks to regional stability. Egypt, which controls Gaza’s southern border, has resisted accepting large numbers of refugees, with President Sisi labeling displacement proposals as unjust. Similar sentiments are echoed across the region due to concerns about security, national identity, and historical grievances tied to past refugee crises. Wall Street Journal

Syria’s new Islamist president consolidates power. Ahmed al-Sharaa, leader of Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has consolidated power in Syria after ousting Bashar al-Assad in December. He appointed himself president of a transitional government, sidelined opposition groups, and delayed a national dialogue conference. Western nations demand an inclusive government before lifting sanctions, but Sharaa’s actions raise doubts. While Syrians celebrate Assad’s fall, many fear HTS rule. Critics warn Sharaa’s control mirrors past authoritarianism, despite his pledges of future elections. His government’s inexperience and lack of broad representation may complicate Syria’s path forward, leaving the country’s political future uncertain. Financial Times

Syrian interim president visits Saudi Arabia for first trip abroad. Syria’s interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, made his first foreign trip to Saudi Arabia on Sunday, signaling a potential shift away from Iran as Damascus’ primary regional ally. Al-Sharaa, formerly linked to al-Qaida and leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss enhancing cooperation, particularly in humanitarian and economic areas. This visit reflects Syria’s efforts to rebuild relations with Arab nations after years of isolation during the civil war. Al-Sharaa’s distancing from Iran and Russia—both of which heavily influenced Syria during the conflict—suggests a strategy to gain Western support and seek the lifting of crippling sanctions. Rebuilding Syria is expected to cost hundreds of billions of dollars. The visit follows a broader regional realignment, including Saudi-Iran détente in 2023. Despite diplomatic efforts, Syria faces ongoing security threats from ISIS and other militant groups. Recently, a car bomb in Manbij killed four civilians amid Turkish-backed rebel activity in the region, highlighting the country’s continued instability. Associated Press The Guardian Al Jazeera 

Regime change in Syria has Iraqi factions backtracking on the push for US withdrawal. The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has led Iran-aligned factions in Iraq to reconsider their push for a U.S. withdrawal. Previously, these groups demanded American forces leave, but Assad’s ouster has weakened Iran’s influence and raised fears of an Islamic State (IS) resurgence. Iraqi officials now worry IS could exploit the power vacuum and have informally asked to delay the U.S. departure. Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani faces political risks in formally extending the coalition’s presence. While the U.S. exit was planned for September 2025, shifting regional dynamics may prolong its military role in Iraq. Associated Press

15 killed in car bomb explosion in Syria’s north. A car bomb in the Syrian city of Manbij killed at least 15 people, mostly women, and injured 15 other women on Monday, marking Syria's deadliest attack since leader Bashar al-Assad was ousted in December. The victims were agricultural workers, and the death toll may rise. No group has claimed responsibility. This is the second bombing in Manbij in three days, following an attack on Saturday that killed four civilians and injured nine, including children. Manbij, located near the Turkish border, has frequently changed hands during the Syrian war, and was most recently captured by Turkey-backed forces from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in December. BBC Deutsche Welle Reuters Euronews 

Israeli troops blow up buildings in West Bank refugee camp. The Israeli military conducted a major operation in the Jenin refugee camp in the occupied West Bank on Sunday, demolishing around 20 buildings, according to the Palestinian state news agency. The operation, which has been ongoing for nearly two weeks, targets Palestinian militant fighters and weapons stockpiles. The Israeli military reported dismantling 23 structures after uncovering explosives labs, weapons, and observation posts. Although part of Jenin Government Hospital was damaged, no casualties were reported there. The offensive began on January 21, shortly after the Gaza ceasefire came into effect, as part of Israel’s broader strategy against Iranian-backed groups across multiple fronts. Since the operation started, at least 25 Palestinians, including militants and civilians, have been killed, with over 100 individuals detained. The U.N. reports that nearly all of the camp’s 20,000 residents have been displaced. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has called on the U.S. to intervene and requested an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting. Hamas has urged increased resistance against Israel following the demolitions. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the military will remain in Jenin until the operation is complete, without specifying an end date. Separately, a 27-year-old Palestinian was killed by Israeli forces during a raid near Hebron. Reuters Associated Press The Guardian Al Jazeera 

Qatar's PM urges Hamas, Israel to initiate talks on Gaza ceasefire phase two. Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani on Sunday demanded that Israel and Hamas immediately start negotiations for phase two of the Gaza ceasefire, as required by their agreement. The next phase should have begun by Monday, the 16th day of the current ceasefire. The three-phase accord, reached last month, halted fighting and resulted in Hamas releasing 18 hostages in exchange for Israel freeing hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Phase two is expected to involve the release of all remaining hostages, a permanent end to hostilities, and a full Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza. While mediators have been in contact with both sides, no date or location for talks has been confirmed. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will begin negotiations in Washington on Monday with U.S. Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff, who will also meet with Egyptian and Qatari officials to facilitate the process. Qatar hopes talks will progress in the coming days to reach an agreement before the 42-day deadline. Reuters 

Security sources reveal drone assault on Khor Mor gas field in Iraq. A drone attack struck the Khor Mor gas field in Iraq's Kurdistan region on Sunday, according to security sources. The incident caused no damage, and operations at the site, managed by Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum under the Pearl Consortium, remain unaffected. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack. Reuters 

Israel is constructing outposts in newly liberated Syria, triggering local fears of occupation. Almost immediately following the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Israeli forces swiftly moved into Syrian territory. Despite initial claims that their presence was temporary, and necessary to secure weapons and stabilize the area, the construction of military bases, new roads, and checkpoints suggests a more permanent occupation. Satellite images analyzed by the Washington Post show at least two new Israeli military outposts and signs of a third under development, with at least the first two connected to Israel’s Golan Heights territory by fresh dirt roads. Israeli troops have crossed into the UN-monitored buffer zone, violating the 1974 ceasefire agreement, which Israel now considers void. Syrian officials have condemned the incursion, accusing the Jewish state of unjustified occupation and resource grabs, particularly concerning water supplies. Locals report home raids, road closures, and displacement, with some families still barred from returning to their land. Israeli bulldozers have also destroyed village fruit trees, in addition to other trees in part of a protected nature reserve. Israel cites security concerns, including threats from militant groups, as justification for its actions. This expansion mirrors Israeli military strategies in Gaza and along the Lebanon border, aimed at creating security zones. Negotiations are ongoing through the U.N. and the U.S. to address the situation, but tensions remain high, with reports surfacing of local protests and sporadic clashes. Residents fear permanent displacement, recalling past conflicts during which Syrians were unable to return to Israeli-occupied areas. Washington Post 

ASIA & OCEANIA

China condemns Trump’s tariff in measured tones, says 'fentanyl is America's problem'. China has criticized the Trump administration's new 10% tariff on Chinese imports but left room for future negotiations to prevent escalating tensions. Beijing plans to challenge the tariff at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and implement unspecified countermeasures. Unlike its previous aggressive responses, China adopted a measured tone, contrasting with Canada and Mexico's harsher reactions to U.S. tariffs. The Chinese government condemned the tariffs as violations of international trade rules and encouraged dialogue. Although filing a WTO case has symbolic value, it poses no immediate threat to the U.S. due to the WTO's weakened dispute system. Analysts believe China may seek an early deal with Trump to mitigate economic impacts, as it faces vulnerabilities like a large trade surplus and slowing domestic demand. Additionally, Beijing rejected U.S. claims linking the tariffs to fentanyl issues, stressing its anti-narcotics cooperation with Washington and saying these efforts have “achieved remarkable results." The Chinese public security ministry added that “shifting the blame to other countries” will not help Washington resolve the issue and could also “seriously damage the cooperation and trust” between the two powers in the sector of illicit drug control.  Reuters VOA Economic Times South China Morning Post 

China’s PLA conducts combat readiness patrols around South China Sea shoal. The Chinese military conducted combat readiness patrols around Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea on Friday, reinforcing its control over the disputed area. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has intensified naval and air patrols since January to safeguard China’s sovereignty. Scarborough Shoal, a collection of small, rocky islets claimed by both China and the Philippines, lies within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ). This has engendered intense, ongoing tensions. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Friday criticized China’s “aggressive” actions, while Beijing in turn voiced opposition to the U.S. Typhon missile system deployed in the Philippines, viewing it as a geopolitical threat. China’s patrols aim to strengthen its military presence and assert dominance in the contested region. South China Morning Post 

Chinese scientists claim Beijing’s Type 055 destroyer can defeats U.S. fleet with unmanned ‘kill web.’ A team of Chinese scientists conducted a study simulating a battle in the western Pacific, in which a Type 055 destroyer, supported by unmanned mother ships, drones, and boats, successfully defended against an attack by eight U.S. Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and 32 advanced missiles. The simulation, led by the China Ship Development and Design Centre and Huazhong University, showcased Beijing’s ambition to revolutionize maritime warfare with unmanned weapons, creating a cost-effective "kill web" for precise strikes. While the U.S. has similar drone initiatives, doubts remain about its production capacity compared to China, which leads global drone manufacturing. The study highlighted China’s determination to achieve dominance in unmanned military technology. South China Morning Post

Manila urged to steer clear of ‘sensationalising’ arrests of Chinese nationals as regional tensions simmer. Chinese Filipino leaders are urging Philippine authorities to avoid “sensationalizing” recent arrests of Chinese nationals accused of espionage, warning that it could fuel anti-Chinese sentiment and discrimination. On Thursday, five Chinese nationals were arrested in Palawan for allegedly spying on the Philippine Coast Guard close to the Spratly Islands by installing cameras at a nearby resort. This comes in the wake of a similar case last month, involving Chinese national Deng Yuanqing, who was accused of surveilling military and police facilities along with two other associates. Critics argue that publicizing these cases without solid evidence risks damaging tourism, politicizing national security, and straining Philippines-China relations. One analyst said that espionage cases should not be downplayed, but must not be highlighted either, in order to “insulate the investigation” from politics and public opinion, and to allow police and security officials to carry out “thorough, impartial, and credible probes.” Concerns have also been raised about the fairness of the investigations, potential “trial by publicity,” and the impact on the Chinese Filipino community, known locally as Tsinoys, amid rising geopolitical tensions. South China Morning Post  

Militants kill 18 paramilitary soldiers in restive south-west Pakistan. Recent clashes in Balochistan, south-western Pakistan, resulted in the deaths of eighteen paramilitary soldiers and 24 militants, according to the military on Saturday. The militants had attempted to set up roadblocks overnight, and this led to most of the casualties during security forces' operations. Eleven insurgents were later killed in clearance operations. The militants' affiliation is unclear. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the attack. Balochistan, bordering Iran and Afghanistan, faces ongoing insurgency from separatist Baloch groups and Islamist militants. Reuters

At least one killed in firing incident at Kabul U.N. compound. According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), at least one person was killed and another injured in a firing incident at a U.N. compound in Kabul. A statement released on Monday said that Taliban guards were involved in the incident, and that a probe has been launched. Reuters

Cars, homes of Jewish Australians in Sydney vandalized with antisemitic graffiti in latest incident. Cars and homes in Sydney, Australia's largest city, were recently vandalized with antisemitic graffiti, marking the latest in a series of attacks targeting the Jewish community. The incidents, concentrated in Sydney’s east, have raised concerns within the Jewish community, drawn scathing criticism from Israel, and increased pressure on Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government ahead of upcoming elections. A special police task force has been doubled to 40 officers to combat antisemitic crimes. Antisemitic and Islamophobic incidents have surged in the nation since the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 and the subsequent war in Gaza. Reuters Australian Broadcasting Corporation  

AFRICA

U.S. targets Islamic State operatives in Somalia. The U.S. conducted an airstrike against Islamic State militants in Somalia’s Golis Mountains on Saturday, marking the first such operation since U.S. President Donald Trump was inaugurated last month. The strike targeted an Islamic State operative who was hiding in caves, though it is still unclear if he survived the attack, which reportedly destroyed all of the caves. According to Trump, the strike “killed many terrorists” without harming any civilians. A senior U.S. official said the operative was a critical mastermind behind the group’s activities, and that his death could put Islamic State “back for six months, maybe a little bit more.” On social media, Trump stressed a strong military stance, asserting, “The message to ISIS and all others who would attack Americans is that ‘WE WILL FIND YOU, AND WE WILL KILL YOU!’” This airstrike reflects Trump’s preference for sharp, targeted attacks, contrasting with Biden’s more restrained approach to threats. Islamic State in Somalia, led by British Somali citizen Abdul Qadir Mumin, has significantly expanded its presence, though it remains secondary to Al-Shabaab. The airstrike supports ongoing Somali military offensives, as the U.S. maintains a limited troop presence in Somalia for counterterrorism efforts. For years, under both GOP and Democratic leadership, Washington has regularly conducted airstrikes in Somalia. Wall Street Journal Reuters BBC New York Times France 24    

U.N., Congolese authorities say at least 700 have been killed in Congo violence since Sunday. The U.N. and the Congolese government believe that at least 700 people have been killed and 2,880 injured in Goma and surrounding areas in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo amid fighting with Rwanda-backed M23 rebels, who captured the city last week in a major escalation of a decade-long conflict. Authorities say the death toll may be higher due to unreported mass graves, but there are at least 773 bodies in the city’s morgues. The weakened Congolese military has recaptured some villages, but the rebels, who seek to overrun the capital of Kinshasa, continue advancing toward Bukavu. Hundreds of civilians have volunteered to defend Bukavu as M23 approaches. On Friday, U.N. peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix said that the militants, moving along Lake Kivu on the border with Rwanda, “seem to be moving quite fast.” The conflict has exacerbated a severe humanitarian crisis, with aid operations halted and reports of extrajudicial killings, forced conscription, and human rights abuses by both rebels and government forces. The Rwandan government continues to deny allegations that it is violating international law and illegally occupying Congo, with one spokeswoman asserting, "we're not interested in war, we're not interested in annexation, we're not interested in regime change." BBC The Guardian CNN  Al Jazeera Reuters 

Rwanda accepts proposal for summit on rebel conflict with embattled Congo. Rwanda has welcomed calls for a joint regional summit to address the escalating conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the M23 rebel group, allegedly backed by Rwanda, has captured Goma and threatens to advance toward the capital. The 16-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the East African Community (EAC) plan to hold a summit to discuss the crisis. Rwanda, while denying direct support for M23, criticized the presence of SADC’s peacekeeping force in Congo, claiming it worsens the situation. Tensions are fueled by mutual accusations, with Rwanda alleging that the Congo supports the FDLR, a group linked to the 1994 Rwandan genocide. South China Morning Post 

Congo’s people, displaced by conflict, fear violence, rape if they return to their homes. The capture of Goma, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo’s largest city, has worsened the nation’s already dire humanitarian crisis, and forced hundreds of thousands from their homes. Widow Francine Nsengiyumva and her three children, along with many others at a makeshift displacement center in Goma, are living in harsh conditions, afraid to return home due to ongoing violence. Despite M23 rebels urging civilians to resume normal life after seizing the provincial capital, Nsengiyumva fears for her safety as rebels still occupy her village. The conflict continues to displace civilians, with many fleeing multiple times due to rising sexual violence, particularly in North Kivu. The UN recently accused both M23 and the Congolese army of serious human rights abuses. Although Goma is relatively calm now, fighting rages on in neighboring South Kivu. Reuters 

How a camel herder in Sudan’s isolated west rose to become chief of a gang accused of genocide. The ongoing genocide in Sudan, a nation ravaged by conflict and humanitarian crises, has roots in the rise of Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the officer at the helm of Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). A brutal ambush by bandits in 2002, which killed dozens of his family members, served as the catalyst that pushed Dagalo to become what one expert described as a “specialist in violence.” Dagalo, also known as "Hemedti, formed a militia from his Arab Rizeigat community, which eventually evolved into the notorious Janjaweed. Janjaweed, meaning Evil Horsemen, has been accused of mass killings, rape, and ethnic cleansing in Darfur. “After failing to take over the state of Sudan, he has decided to destroy it,” said Alex de Waal, the executive director of Tufts University’s World Peace Foundation. Now leading the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Dagalo has been linked to atrocities against Black Sudanese populations, fueled by wealth from gold mining and foreign mercenary contracts. His forces have battled Sudan's military for power, causing tens of thousands of deaths and displacing millions. According to Human Rights Watch, his armed men have destroyed farmland, wells, and food reserves in an effort to secure more land for Hemedti’s Arab Rizeigat kinsmen. Strengthened with cash from his gold operations and funding from the UAE for supposed mercenary work in Yemen and Libya, he has brought in mercenaries, executed tens of thousands of people, and stormed, pillaged and raped Black communities across Sudan. Despite international condemnation, including U.S. genocide accusations and sanctions, Dagalo remains committed to his violent campaign. Both he and military leaders face war crimes allegations. Wall Street Journal

US to sever all future funding to South Africa amid land expropriation controversy. U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday announced plans to cut off funding to South Africa, citing unproven claims that "certain classes of people" are being treated “very badly” in the country, specifically referencing the confiscation of land. This follows South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s recent law allowing for an easier process to expropriate land in order to address racial disparities post-apartheid. South Africa’s foreign ministry responded, emphasizing its constitutional democracy and comparing the law to similar global legislation. On Monday, Ramaphosa said he looked forward to engaging with the American president on the issue. Trump previously raised concerns about white farmers’ safety in South Africa, though no investigation was confirmed. His ally, tech billionaire Elon Musk, has also criticized South Africa’s government over perceived anti-white sentiments. Reuters The Guardian Politico Reuters 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Dow Futures Plunge as U.S. Trade War Erupts. Global markets tumbled after President Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs over the weekend. Dow futures fell 1.5%, S&P 500 futures dropped 2%, and Nasdaq futures lost 2.6%, while Bitcoin slid over 3% and oil surged nearly 2%. The tariffs include 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, 10% on Canadian energy products, and 10% on China. Canada and Mexico retaliated, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau imposing $155 billion in tariffs on U.S. goods. Analysts warn of inflationary pressures, potentially adding 0.45 percentage points to U.S. inflation. The S&P 500 closed down 1% last week, ending a two-week gain. Barron’s Market Watch

AI has rocked the stock market, but what will it do to the economy? AI’s economic impact remains uncertain despite market enthusiasm. While some predict a productivity boom, historical patterns suggest gains may take decades to materialize. Optimists foresee AI fueling economic growth, with estimates ranging from a 2.3% to 13% GDP boost by 2040. Skeptics argue AI’s effect could be minimal, with only 5% of human tasks automated in the next decade. A dystopian scenario envisions AI eliminating jobs without broad prosperity gains. Early evidence shows efficiency improvements in specific fields, but AI’s broader impact on wages, inequality, and economic structure will depend on how its benefits are distributed. Bloomberg

The global AI race: Is China catching up to the US? China has not definitively surpassed the U.S. in AI, but DeepSeek’s breakthrough has narrowed the gap. Its R1 model, developed at a fraction of U.S. costs, disrupted markets and challenged assumptions of U.S. dominance. While some experts argue China remains a fast follower rather than a leader, others see this as a turning point. DeepSeek’s efficiency highlights China’s ability to innovate despite U.S. export restrictions. The AI race is now about how technology is used, not just who has the best chips. Whether China can maintain momentum in cutting-edge research remains an open question. Financial Times

AI Is Wall Street’s Modern Gold Rush. Here’s How Investors Are Placing Their Bets. Investors are pouring money into AI infrastructure, betting big on data centers, green energy, and hyperscale computing. Major firms like Amazon and Microsoft could spend $3 trillion by 2030 on AI-driven data centers. Private equity and hedge funds are financing projects like Oracle’s Stargate data center, while Digital Realty raised $8.5 billion last year for expansion. CoreWeave, a Nvidia affiliate, is preparing an IPO after securing billions in funding. Green energy firms like Silicon Ranch are building solar farms for AI operations. Investors seek winners in a volatile sector, mindful of past tech booms and busts. Wall Street Journal

What DeepSeek, Russian Sanctions and Guitar Amplifiers Teach Us About Global Competition. Global competition favors those who adapt to constraints. China’s DeepSeek exemplifies how restrictions can spur innovation, much like Russia’s economy rebounded despite sanctions. Europe, struggling with industrial stagnation, is seeing signs of recovery, with German stocks outperforming the S&P 500. Analysts warn that dominant U.S. tech firms may not maintain their lead, citing past shifts like Nokia’s decline. Europe has the expertise and market size to challenge the U.S. but lacks a coordinated industrial push. As protectionism rises under Donald Trump, Europe may need a more aggressive competition strategy, rather than relying solely on regulatory easing and innovation incentives. Wall Street Journal

Taiwan says government departments should not use DeepSeek, citing security concerns. Taiwan's digital ministry has barred government departments from using DeepSeek’s AI service, citing security concerns over data transmission and potential leaks. The decision reflects Taiwan’s broader distrust of Chinese tech due to Beijing’s claims over the island. South Korea and several European countries, including France, Italy, and Ireland, also scrutinize DeepSeek’s data practices. Meanwhile, DeepSeek’s AI assistant surpassed ChatGPT in App Store downloads, contributing to a $593 billion selloff in U.S. tech stocks, including Nvidia’s record one-day market loss. Reuters

Pakistan-based cybercrime network dismantled by US and Dutch authorities. U.S. and Dutch authorities dismantled a Pakistan-based cybercrime network, Saim Raza (aka HeartSender), seizing domains linked to selling phishing kits, scam pages, and hacking tools. The group enabled business email compromise (BEC) scams, causing over $3 million in U.S. losses. It also provided instructional videos for cybercriminals. Despite its reach, security lapses exposed its operations. Authorities did not confirm arrests but aim to disrupt its activities and curb cybercrime proliferation. The Record

Regional healthcare systems report data breaches affecting more than 1.5 million. Two regional healthcare networks reported data breaches affecting over 1.5 million people. Connecticut’s Community Health Center had data stolen from over 1 million patients, including medical and financial records. California’s NorthBay Healthcare suffered a breach impacting 569,012 people, with hackers accessing Social Security numbers, credit card details, and health insurance data. The Embargo ransomware gang claimed responsibility for NorthBay’s attack, which disrupted hospital operations. Both organizations are offering identity protection services to affected individuals.The Record 

Japan successfully launches navigation satellite on flagship H3 rocket. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, or JAXA, successfully launched the Michibiki 6 navigation satellite on its new H3 rocket from the Tanegashima Space Center on Sunday. The satellite separated from the rocket as planned and is expected to reach its designated orbit in about two weeks. Michibiki 6 will enhance Japan's quasi-zenith satellite system (QZSS), supplementing U.S. GPS for improved positioning in smartphones, vehicles, maritime navigation, and drones. Japan aims to expand its network to seven satellites by 2026 and 11 by the late 2030s, reducing reliance on foreign systems. This launch marks the H3 rocket's fourth consecutive success after an initial failure last year. Associated Press Space.com 

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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