Monday, February 27, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
White House, CIA Chief Reiterate China Considering Lethal Aid for Russia. White House national security advisor Jake Sullivan told CNN’s “State of the Union” program on Sunday that while China has not sent lethal aid to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine, Beijing is still considering the move. Sullivan added that the US has clearly warned Beijing that it will face “real costs” if it does send lethal support. CIA Director William Burns later agreed with the assessment, saying that the CIA is “confident” that “the Chinese leadership” is considering sending lethal aid but have yet to make a “final decision.” Sources familiar with US intelligence have said China is considering sending drones and ammunition to Russia for use in Ukraine. CNN France 24 Politico Reuters
Energy Department Revises Assessment of COVID Origin. US Department of Energy (DOE) officials say new intelligence suggests the COVID pandemic may have been caused by a laboratory leak in China. The DOE maintains that the leak appears to be the result of an accident, and not a deliberate bio-weapon and that the new assessment was made with “low confidence,” suggesting a low level of certainty. The DOE now joins the FBI as the second member of the US intelligence community to state publicly that they believe the lab leak theory. The CIA and one other unnamed intelligence agency reportedly remain undecided. White House national security advisor Jake Sullivan says that despite the DOE’s new assessment, the US intelligence community has not yet reached a consensus on the most likely cause. CNN New York Times South China Morning Post Wall Street Journal
Russian National Charged With Funneling Sensitive US Tech to Russia, North Korea. The US Department of Justice charged Russian national Ilya Balakaev with allegedly providing sensitive equipment to the Russian Federal Security Bureau (FSB) and North Korean government. The department says Balakaev is “currently a fugitive” and faces up to 75 years in prison if captured and convicted. Prosecutors say that Balakaev was a former FSB agent involved in communication security and cryptology and allege that he used his company, Radiotester, to obtain US counterintelligence equipment and encryptors in order to bring them back to Russia. The US also alleges that he made a deal with the North Korean government to smuggle gas-detectors and software from the US to Pyongyang. The Record
Canada to Send More Tanks to Ukraine, Impose New Russian Sanctions. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Friday that Canada will send four new Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine. Trudeau also said that Canada will provide Kyiv with armored recovery vehicles and 5,000 rounds of ammunition. He added that Canada will also impose new sanctions on 129 individuals and 63 entities linked to the Ukraine war. Reuters
Mass Protests Against Proposed Mexico Election Changes. Hundreds of thousands of protestors gathered throughout Mexico on Sunday to protest an election overhaul that critics say is a threat to democracy. Over 500,000 people were estimated to have gathered in Mexico City according to organizers, in what is the largest protest so far against President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. However, the Mexico City government said that only 90,000 people participated. Lopez Obrador has denied claims that these changes will weaken Mexico’s democracy, while critics are vowing to take the issue to the Supreme Court. Financial Times Reuters
Peru Recalls Ambassador from Mexico. Peru recalled its ambassador to Mexico over comments by Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obradaor about Peruvian President Dina Boluarte’s government. Lopez Obrador said earlier on Friday that Boluarte’s government is “unconstitutional,” adding that Mexico will continue supporting her “illegally ousted” predecessor Pedro Castillo. Boluarte responded by accusing Lopez Obrador of backing Castillo’s attempt at a coup, as well as with the recall of the ambassador. BBC Reuters
Western Europe
EU Sanctions Wagner Group for Africa Activities. The EU on Saturday sanctioned individuals and entities linked to Russia’s Wagner Group over the organization’s “human rights abuses” in the Central African Republic, Sudan and Mali. The measures added eight individuals and seven entities associated with the mercenary group to an EU blacklist. The sanctions targeted high-profile Wagner members including the head of Wagner forces in Mali and the Wagner “security advisor” to the president of the Central African Republic. The sanctions also listed a Central African radio station for engaging in pro-Russian and Wagner Group online influence operations. Deutsche Welle European Council France 24 RFE/RL
Thousands Protest in Berlin to Protest Ukraine Arms Transfers. Over 10,000 people gathered in Berlin on Saturday to protest against sending more arms to Ukraine to counter Russia’s invasion. Protesters in the “Uprising for Peace” called on the German government to “stop the escalation of arms deliveries” in support of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Media reports say the protests were organized by a member of Germany's left-wing Die Linke party. Deutsche Welle Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Continued Russian Shelling, Attacks in Eastern, Southern Ukraine. Ukraine’s military reports continued Russian shelling in southern and eastern Ukraine. The latest attacks reportedly killed three civilians in the Donetsk region and two others in Kherson. Russia’s Wagner Group claims it has taken the village of Yahidne, northwest of the embattled city of Bakhmut. However, the Ukrainian military said Sunday that Russian offensives on Yahidne and the surrounding area have been unsuccessful. Deutsche Welle New York Times Reuters
Zelenskiy Fires Ukraine’s Head of Joint Forces. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced on Sunday that he has dismissed Ukraine’s commander of joint forces, Major General Eduard Mykhailovich Moskalov. He had been appointed to the position in March. Zelenskiy did not say why he fired Moskalov and it is unclear if this latest leadership reshuffle is part of Ukraine’s anti-corruption campaign. CNN
Zelenskiy Says Putin to be Toppled From Power by Own People. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a new documentary that he believes people within Russian President Vladimir Putin’s own regime will topple him from power. Zelenskiy said top Russian officials will find a “reason” to “kill the killer,” saying that “carnivores will eat the carnivore.” Zelenskiy added that he is sure this will happen eventually, though he did not know when. His comments at the one-year mark of the Ukraine war underscore media reports and testimonies from sources with access to Putin’s inner circle of increasing frustration in the Kremlin with Putin and his handling of the invasion. South China Morning Post
Putin Says Ukraine War a Battle for Russia’s Survival. Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a Russian state TV interview that he views confrontation with the West in the Ukraine war as an existential threat to Russia. Repeating key Russian propaganda, Putin said that Western support of Ukraine ultimately aims to “break up the former Soviet Union and its fundamental part, the Russian Federation.” He argued that the West wants to do this to divide Russia up for its raw materials. Putin warned that if the West destroys Russia, he is unsure “if the Russian people as an ethnic group can survive in the form in which they exist today.” The US and Western countries have maintained that their support for Kyiv is to defend Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, rather than a means to attack Russia itself. New York Times Reuters
Russia Accuses US of Trying to Disrupt Relations with Africa. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov told state news agency TASS that the US is pressuring African countries to disrupt the upcoming Russia-Africa summit in July. Bogdanov said the US is doing this through the threat of sanctions and cutting off of aid. He said these actions are part of efforts by the “collective West” to isolate Moscow. Russia has sought to develop deeper relations with African countries as it is shunned by the West over its invasion of Ukraine. Reuters
Russia and Ukraine Both Open to Chinese Peace Plan but Biden Cast Doubts. Russia has signaled that it is open to China’s peace proposal to resolve the Ukraine war, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying that the plan should be looked at closely. Ukraine offered cautious optimism on the plan, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy saying on Friday that to his knowledge, the proposal “respects historical integrity.” He added that he hopes to discuss China’s proposals with Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, he added that compromise with the Russian leadership is impossible till Russia ceases its attacks on Ukraine. President Joe Biden expressed skepticism over any China-led peace plan, saying in a media interview that aired Sunday that he saw nothing in the plan “that would be beneficial to anyone other than Russia.” He also saw Russia’s support as a negative sign, saying that if Russian President Vladimir Putin supports it, “how could it be any good?” Politico Reuters The Guardian
Russian Capsule Reaches ISS. Russian space agency Roscosmos said Sunday that a Russian rescue capsule had successfully docked with the International Space Station. The capsule will bring two Russian cosmonauts and an American astronaut back to Earth. The three were stranded when their original capsule was hit by debris and began leaking. While the rescue capsule is at the ISS, the crew will not leave until September when a replacement crew is ready. Deutsche Welle Reuters
Asia
France’s Macron to Visit China in April. French President Emmanuel Macron announced that he plans to visit China in early April. Macron said his visit will in part seek help from China on ending the Ukraine war, both by building on Beijing’s 12-point peace plan and discussing ways that China can pressure Russia to cease aggression to facilitate negotiations. Reuters
EU Leaders May Visit China Mid-2023. European Commission President Usula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel may visit China sometime this year. Chinese ambassador to the European Union Fu Cong told reporters that preparations for the visit are already underway, and other meetings between China and the EU are expected to begin soon. Reuters
Belarus Leader Lukashenko to Visit China. China’s foreign ministry announced Saturday that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will visit China from February 28 to March 2. The Belarusian foreign ministry later confirmed the planned state visit. Neither side gave details on Lukashenko’s agenda. The trip was announced just days after Beijing published a 12-point “position paper” on how to resolve the Ukraine war as part of its proclaimed efforts to play a mediating role in ending the conflict. Belarus has backed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by allowing Russian forces to use Belarusian territory to stage attacks. Associated Press Politico
China Criticizes US for Taiwan Strait Fly-Through. China condemned the US for flying a military plane through the Taiwan Strait on Monday as an act that “endangered peace and stability” in the region. The Eastern Theatre Command of China’s People’s Liberation Army said it closely monitored the aircraft, which was a P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol and reconnaissance plane, as it transited the Strait. The US Navy’s 7th Fleet said the aircraft flew through international airspace and was in accordance with international law, adding that the flight demonstrated the US commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. Reuters
Missing China Bank Chairman Purportedly Cooperating With Chinese Authorities on Investigation. China-based boutique bank China Renaissance Holdings said in an exchange filing on Sunday that its missing chairman Bao Fan is currently cooperating with Chinese authorities on an investigation. It is the first time the bank has addressed the whereabouts of Bao, who was reported missing 10 days ago. Media reports previously said Bao was helping an investigation into the bank’s former president Cong Lin. Bao’s disappearance is the latest in a series of cases of top Chinese executives going missing amid China’s anti-corruption campaign and regulatory crackdown on technology companies. CNN Financial Times Reuters
Nepal Deputy PM, Other Ministers Resign. Nepal’s deputy prime minister and three other ministers resigned after Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who goes by Prachanda, said he would support a presidential candidate from an opposition party in next month’s election. Prachanda did not give a reason for his decision not to support a candidate of his coalition partner. Analysts say Prachanda’s government is in immediate trouble as it still holds the majority in parliament. However, they say divisions may lead to a new coalition being formed in the upcoming vote. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Israeli, Palestinian Officials Meet in Jordan to De-Escalate Violence. Israeli and Palestinian officials met in Jordan on Sunday and pledged to prevent further violence in the West Bank and Jerusalem. The two sides agreed to jointly “end unilateral measures” for the next 3-6 months, including a pause on the development of Israeli settlements for four months and authorizations for new outposts for six months. US, Jordanian and Egyptian representatives also attended the talks, which followed escalating violence ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan in late March. Agreements at the meeting met immediate resistance. Top officials in Israel’s right-wing government like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir rejected Israeli promises at the talks. Palestinian militant group Hamas likewise called the meeting “worthless.” Reuters Wall Street Journal
Two Israelis, Palestinian Killed in West Bank. Underscoring challenges to the Jordan agreement, Sunday was marked by more violence in the West Bank. A Palestinian gunman first shot two Israelis in the town of Huwara, near the city of Nablus. No group claimed responsibility for the shooting, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called “a Palestinian terror attack.” Hours later, Israeli settlers clashed with Palestinians in the area. Palestinian media reported that settlers torched Palestinian houses, and the Palestinian health ministry said one Palestinian was shot dead in the violence. Netanyahu responded by calling for calm and urging ordinary citizens to allow security forces to handle law enforcement. Al Jazeera Axios
Algeria Set to Reopen Kyiv Embassy. Algeria is reportedly planning to reopen its embassy in Kyiv a year after it was closed due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Algerian state TV announced the plan citing Algeria’s foreign ministry, adding that the embassy will be reopened “as soon as possible” and will be run by a charge d’affaires. Barron’s Reuters
Iran Releases Spanish Woman Jailed for Three Months. Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares announced Sunday that Iran has released a Spanish woman who had been imprisoned since November on espionage charges. The woman is an activist who works for an NGO and was detained during anti-government protests. The Iranian government did not comment on her release. Reuters RFE/RL
Sub Saharan Africa
France’s Macron Visiting Africa. French President Emmanuel Macron is touring several African countries this week. Macron is set to visit Gabon, Angola, the Republic of Congo and Democratic Republic of Congo. The trip comes as both Russia and China deepen ties with African partners amid waning French influence on the continent. France 24 Reuters
Explosions Injure 19 During Cameroon Race. A series of small blasts at a running race in western Cameroon injured nineteen athletes on Saturday. The armed wing of the separatist militia Ambazonia Governing Council claimed responsibility for the attack. The group said it was targeting Cameroon elite forces providing security at the event. Deutsche Welle Reuters
Somalia Peacekeeping Mission Helicopter Crash Kills Three. A helicopter operated by the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia crashed on Saturday, killing three people and injuring eight. Officials say the helicopter was participating in training drills for casualty evacuation in Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region when it crashed and that it is investigating the cause of the crash. Reuters
Cyber & Tech
Treasury Department Sanctions Russian Disinformation, Malign Tech Operators. The US Treasury Department announced new sanctions on several Russian individuals and entities on the one year mark of the Ukraine war. The measures target several entities linked to Russian disinformation operations. One sanctioned individual is Andrey Igorevich Masalovich, the CEO of Lavina Puls and Inforus, a data company allegedly associated with “malign influence” tools used by Russia’s foreign intelligence agency, the GRU. The sanctions also target 0Day Technologies, which is accused of developing a botnet and a dashboard for inauthentic social media accounts for the Russian government. Other sanctioned entities are accused of other misinformation campaigns, sanctions evasion and cyber and telecommunications support for the GRU. The Record
Experts Warn of Escalating Russian Cyber Threats Against Ukraine, Cybersecurity experts are warning that Russia is preparing to escalate cyber operations against Ukraine. Google’s Threat Analysis Group said last week that it has “high confidence” that Russia “will increase disruptive and destructive attacks” as the war “fundamentally” shifts in favor of Ukraine. Recorded Future likewise recently predicted that Russian cybercriminals will “almost certainly” play a role in backing Russia’s next moves against Ukraine in cyberspace, backing other analysis that Russian cybercrime is recovering from initial disruptions in the war. Experts note that while Ukrainian cyber defenses have proven strong so far, Russia has now had a year to reshape its strategy and prepare more sophisticated attacks, meaning the threat is not gone. Experts also warn that Russia may now be less cautious about keeping cyberattacks from spilling beyond Ukraine as the conflict carries on. Axios Politico
Russia-Ukraine Social Media Cyber War Will Influence Future Military Doctrine. A new report by Cybernews says that social media has emerged as a primary force in the Ukraine war for both sides. Social media platforms have been used to document and analyze the conflict, as well as push agendas and influence public opinion related to the war. Social media has been key in pushing propaganda and disinformation about the war. In contrast, communication and collaboration between governments, companies, activists and journalists have been streamlined thanks to social media connections. The prevalence of social media in the war has raised issues like cyber-influence operations, data security and free speech and has set Big Tech up to play key roles in future conflicts. Cybernews
Ukraine War Cyber Attacks Lead to Cybersecurity Improvements. Cyber experts say that the onslaught of Russian cyberattacks in the Ukraine war have prompted broad improvements in cybersecurity. For Ukraine, the attacks have revealed Russian cyber tactics and forced further investment in cyber defenses and collaboration. The EU and US have responded by supporting Ukraine and other Eastern European countries’ cybersecurity initiatives, as well as bolstering their own domestic cyber defenses. Washington Post
Dish Network Goes Offline in Possible Cyber Attack. Dish Network’s websites, networks, apps and customer service lines suffered an unexplained outage that began on Thursday. The TV giant and satellite broadcast provider called the disruption an “internal system issue.” The outage also reportedly took down the company’s internal systems, preventing employees from working. BleepingComputer said the outage appeared to be a cyberattack, though a Dish source told TheDesk that it was not. BleepingComputer Business Insider TheDesk
News Corp Alerts Employees to 2022 Hack. News Corp sent notifications to some employees about a January 2022 breach of its systems that the company believes the Chinese government may have been behind. The company maintains that only a “limited number” of employees had their personal and health information exposed by the hack. While the breach was first discovered in January 2022, the most recent employee notifications say that the attackers first accessed News Corp’s systems in February 2020. BleepingComputer The Record
US, Asian Partners Hold ‘Chip 4’ Semiconductor Talks. Japan, the US, South Korea and Taiwan held their first meeting of senior officials under the US-led “Chip 4” alliance on semiconductor supply chains. The initiative aims to bolster the global chip supply chain and reduce China’s involvement. Disruptions to supply chains from the COVID pandemic and concerns about impacts from a conflict in the Taiwan Strait have prompted the US and Asian allies to work on better securing their access to semiconductors. Bloomberg
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