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Monday, February 20, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Biden Makes Trip to Kyiv.  President Joe Biden met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy during a previously unannounced visit to Kyiv on Monday.  Biden says he visited Kyiv to reaffirm US support for Ukraine.  During the trip, Biden announced a new $500 million US military package, which will include artillery ammunition, anti-armor systems and air surveillance radars.  Biden did not specifically mention fighter jets, which Ukraine has requested, in his announcement.  Zelenskiy lauded Biden’s visit as a key event in US-Ukrainian relations, adding that it was the first trip by a US president to Ukraine in fifteen years.  Reuters Washington Post

Biden Visits Poland to Discuss US Troop Presence, Ukraine.  Biden arrived in Poland following his surprise trip to Ukraine.  Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Biden’s visit aims to reassure Europe of US support.  Morawiecki added in a CBS interview that he and Biden will discuss possibly making the US troop presence in Poland larger and more permanent.  Separately, Polish president Andrzej Duda said in a Financial Times interview that he will push Biden to have the US provide postwar security guarantees to Ukraine.  CBS News Financial Times Reuters

US Completes Recovery of Chinese Spy Ballon Debris, Abandons Search for Other Three Downed Aerial Craft.  The US military says it has finished the recovery of debris from the Chinese spy balloon downed off the South Carolina coast.  US Northern Command said the last debris of the balloon had been collected from the ocean floor and is being sent to the FBI for study.  US officials say initial analysis suggests that the balloon was used for surveillance, which China continues to deny.  Meanwhile, the US and Canada announced that they have called off attempts to locate and retrieve debris from the three other unidentified aerial objects that US forces recently shot down across North America.  Both governments said the debris is unlikely to be found and collected since the craft were destroyed over remote areas with difficult terrain.  President Joe Biden previously said that intelligence suggests the objects were likely privately-owned balloons that did not have surveillance capabilities.  Al Jazeera BBC Wall Street Journal

DHS Secretary Says He Won’t Resign, Urges Congress to Fix Immigration.  US Secretary for Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas said in a CNN interview that he will not resign amid criticism of increased illegal crossings at the southern US border with Mexico.  Mayorkas’ remarks come in response to reports that some US lawmakers are planning rare impeachment proceedings against him, claiming that he has lost “operational control” at the border amid the regional migrant crisis.  When asked about this criticism, Mayorkas said he has “operational control” and is doing everything possible to support border forces and promote border security without compromising values.  He added that it is up to Congress to reform and repair a broken immigration system.  CNN The Hill

Suriname Protests Turn Violent, Demonstrators Storm Parliament.  Protests rocked Suriname’s capital of Paramaribo on Friday in opposition to the government's austerity measures.  The protests began peacefully but soon turned violent, culminating into efforts by dozens of demonstrators to storm Suriname’s parliament.  Police eventually forced those moving on parliament grounds back and arrested at least 50 people over the unrest.  Reuters

Western Europe

Russian Diplomats Expelled from The Netherlands.  Dutch Foreign Affairs Minister Wopke Hoekstra announced on Saturday that “a number” of Russian diplomats must leave the Netherlands within two weeks and that Russia’s trade office in Amsterdam must close by Tuesday. Hoekstra accused Russia of trying to establish spies in the Netherlands when announcing the expulsions. The moves follow Russia’s refusal to grant visas to Dutch diplomats to staff the Dutch consulate in St. Petersburg consulate and embassy in Moscow.  Deutsche Welle Politico

Munich Security Conference Highlights

US Accuses Russia of Crimes Against Humanity in Ukraine War.  US Vice President Kamala Harris said in Munich that Russia has committed crimes against humanity during its invasion of Ukraine.  She cited evidence of Russian killings, torture and forced relocations of Ukrainian civilians, including children along with other atrocities.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken backed the assertion of a systematic attack against Ukraine’s civilian population.  It is the strongest US accusation of Russian abuses yet, though it is largely symbolic as it does not trigger specific US responses or signal plans for legal prosecution.  However, the US assertion could push international organizations like the International Criminal Court to pursue investigation into the alleged crimes.  The Russian ambassador to the US condemned the US determination, calling it part of Washington’s efforts to “demonize Russia” and an “excuse” by the U.S. to escalate the conflict.  Associated Press CNN Reuters The Hill

Former CIA Director Petraeus Predicts Ukrainian Summer Offensive.  Cipher Brief Expert and former CIA Director General David Petraeus (Ret.) told CNN in Munich that he believes Ukrainian forces will be able to force Russian troops further back in a successful counter offensive this summer.  Petraeus said this scenario will depend on Ukraine receiving Western support and deploying successfully combined arms warfare.  He added that a successful Ukrainian offensive could sever the land bridge connecting southeastern Ukraine with Crimea, allowing Ukraine to remove the occupied peninsula as a logistics hub for Russia.  Petraeus also said a Ukrainian success could lead to a “very different dynamic” in the war in which Russia begins to recognize the unsustainability of its invasion.  Petraeus separately praised Ukrainian forces training on Western arms for their rapid speed.  CNN

European Leaders Pledge Continued Support for Ukraine.  Senior European officials at the Munich security conference promised to maintain military aid to Ukraine to counter Russia.  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called on Europe to send tanks to Ukraine, marking a full reversal of Berlin’s previous hesitation on the issue.  French President Emmanuel Macron called on the EU to boost defense spending and support for Kyiv to prepare for a “prolonged conflict,” adding that now is “not the time for dialogue” with Russia.  And Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas described a proposal to facilitate EU ammunition transfers to Ukraine.  The plan would have EU member states provide funds to the bloc, which would award contracts to arms makers for ammo production for Ukraine.  The arrangement would be similar to the EU’s program for Covid-19 vaccine production.  EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell backed the plan, saying the bloc is “working” on the proposal as Europe is in “urgent war mode.”  Deutsche Welle RFE/RL

China’s Top Diplomat Calls US Response to Spy Balloon Incident ‘Hysteria.’  Wang Yi, the Director of the China’s Central Foreign Affairs Commission, criticized the US for the Chinese spy balloon incident.  He said the balloon downed by the US military off the South Carolina coast was an unmanned civilian aircraft that blew off course.  He condemned the US decision to destroy it as an “abuse of power bordering on hysteria” that violated key aviation rules.  Separately, the Chinese foreign ministry later released a statement warning the US of consequences if it escalates and seeks to take advantage of the balloon incident.  New York Times Reuters

Blinken, China’s Wang Have “Blunt” Meeting in FIrst Top Level US-China Interaction Since Balloon Incident.  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Wang on the sidelines of the conference.  The US State Department said Blinken referenced the spy balloon incident in the meeting, calling it an “unacceptable violation of US sovereignty and international law” and saying such incidents “must never occur again.”  Wang reportedly called the exchange an “informal contact” that only occurred due to a US request.  Bloomberg CNN NPR

Blinken Warns China Against Supporting Russia in Ukraine War.  In an interview with NBC News, Blinken said he warned Wang that China must not provide material support to Russia for its invasion of Ukraine or support Moscow in systematic sanctions evasion and that it would have “serious consequences” for the US-China relationship.  Blinken said he made the warning as the US has information that Beijing may provide lethal military aid to Russia for the Ukraine war, adding that China is trying to “have it both ways” by publicly saying it wants a peaceful resolution to the conflict while privately sending non-lethal assistance to Moscow.  China’s foreign ministry said Wang reportedly met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to express Beijing’s wish against a “prolonged” conflict or escalation in fighting in Ukraine.  Reuters South China Morning Post The Hill US Department of State

Moldova’s President Calls for European Support.  Moldovan President Maia Sandu said at the conference that she needs European support amid Russian aggression against her country.  She said she needed help as Moscow is “waging hybrid war against Moldova” through propaganda, “multiple cyberattacks,” weaponization of energy, and disinformation such as false bomb alerts.  Her comments follow her recent remarks about an alleged Russian plot to take down her government.  The Record

Central and Eastern Europe

ISW: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 19, 2023.Institute for the Study of War

Russian Attacks Hit Ukraine’s Luhansk, Kharkiv, Kherson.  Ukrainian officials report continued Russian attacks across Ukraine.  Officials in the eastern Luhansk region report increased attacks on Ukrainian forces, namely in the city of Kreminna.  The regional head of Luhansk said that the situation is “difficult but fully controlled” and added that newly trained Russian troops are starting to replace Wagner fighters as the mercenary group suffers mounting losses in the region, especially in Bakhmut and Soledar.  Officials in the northeast Kharkiv region say that Russian shelling killed at least one civilian.  And officials in the southern Kherson region report that a Russian missile hit a house, killing three civilians from the same family.  CNN

Russia Criticizes France’s Macron of Russian ‘Defeat’ Comments.  Russia criticized French President Emmanuel Macron’s remarks about wanting to defeat Moscow.  In comments to a French newspaper, Macron said he wanted to see Russia defeated in Ukraine, though he did not want to “crush” Moscow.  He added that he did not think a democratic solution from within Russian civil society would be able to challenge Russian President Vladimir Putin.  His later remark sought to clarify earlier comments that he did not support regime change in Russia and understood that negotiations with Moscow over Ukraine needed to happen at some point.  Still, the Russian foreign ministry warned Macron over his remarks, alluding to the fate of Napoleon Bonaparte in his failed efforts against Russia.  Reuters

Chechnya Leader Praise Wagner, Says Wants to Head Own Private Mercenary Group.  Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya, said Sunday that he plans to establish his own private mercenary group like Russia’s Wagner Group when he leaves office.  In a post on Telegram, he praised Wagner forces fighting in Ukraine and said that they have shown the importance of private military companies.  Similar to Wagner mercenaries, Kadyrov has deployed forces to Ukraine which largely operate autonomously from Russia’s formal military structure.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Hungary PM Criticizes Europe Over Ukraine War, Pledges to Maintain Russia Ties.  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said in an annual state of the nation address on Saturday that he believes the EU is partly to blame for the Ukraine war.  Orban said that the West could have isolated the conflict if it made moves like guaranteeing that Ukraine would not be admitted into NATO, but that it has instead escalated the Ukraine war by giving military support to Kyiv.  He argued that Europe is now “indirectly at war with Russia” and added that Budapest will not send lethal military aid to Ukraine.  Orban also said that Hungary will maintain economic ties with Russia and that he encourages other European nations to do so as well.  And he said that his government does not see Russia as “a threat to the security of Hungary or Europe.”  Associated Press Deutsche Welle Reuters

Italian Prime Minister Headed to Kyiv.  Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is reportedly traveling to Kyiv on Monday to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.  Meloni previously promised to visit Ukraine before the one-year mark of Russia’s invasion on Friday.  The trip will underscore Meloni’s support for Ukraine despite signs of pushback within her conservative ruling coalition.  Reuters RFE/RL

US Announces More Turkey Aid.  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that the US is providing more aid to Turkey and pledging long-term support following the recent Turkey-Syria earthquakes.  The US has so far sent humanitarian aid to Turkey and Syria worth $85 million following the quakes, and Blinken said the US intends to send a further $100 million aid in the short term.  Blinken announced the aid during a visit to the Incirlik Air Force Base in southern Turkey.  He will hold talks with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu and is also expected to speak with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday in Ankara.  NPR Reuters

Asia

North Korea Fires Ballistic Missiles.  North Korea launched several missiles in recent days over U.S. drills with Japan and South Korea.  On Saturday, North Korean state media reported that Pyongyang fired a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile.  The Japanese military said the ICBM landed in waters within Japan’s exclusive economic zone. The missile was fired in a “sudden launching drill,” meaning the test was ordered the day-of without warning to the crew involved.  Analysts say this type of exercise is part of Pyongyang’s efforts to lessen the time between the order and launch of its missiles.  On Monday, North Korea fired two suspected ballistic missiles into waters off its east coast.  Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, said ahead of the launches that Pyongyang’s “frequency of using the Pacific as our firing range” depends on US actions in the region.  South Korea’s foreign ministry said it sanctioned four individuals and five entities linked to North Korea’s weapons programs in response to the missile tests.  CNN Deutsche Welle Japan Times New York Times Reuters

US Holds Joint Drills with Japan, South Korea.  Amid the North Korean missile launches, the US held bilateral air exercises with South Korea and Japan on Sunday.  The South Korean military said its exercise with the US involved South Korean fighters and US F-16s escorting American B-1B bombers to strengthen combined operation capabilities and demonstrate extended deterrence.  Japan’s Defense Ministry said its exercise involved Japanese F-15s and US B-1 bombers and F-16s, adding that the drill came amid an “increasingly severe” security environment in the region.  Reuters

Chinese Officials Visit Taiwan for First Time Since Pandemic.  Several Chinese officials visited Taipei on Saturday, marking the first visit by Chinese officials to Taiwan since the start of the Covid pandemic.  Li Xiaodong, the deputy head of the Shanghai office of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, led the Chinese delegation, which attended Taipei’s Lantern Festival.  The group came at the invitation of the city’s government, which is headed by mayor Chiang Wan-an, who is from the Kuomintang (KMT) opposition party.  The Taiwan central government’s Mainland Affairs Council permitted the group to visit as long as they kept a low profile and did not make political statements.  Financial Times Reuters

Taliban Announces Plan to Turn Former Foreign Bases into Special Economic Zones.  The Taliban announced Sunday that they are working on plans to turn former foreign military bases in Afghanistan into special economic zones.  Taliban economic and commerce officials said a pilot plan will begin base conversions in Kabul and the northern Balkh province.  The plan comes as the Taliban seek to boost trade and investment to repair the Afghan economy following banking sanctions and cuts to development funding and aid prompted by the group’s takeover.  Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

Israeli Missile Strike Kills 5 in Damascus.  An Israeli air strike hit a building in the Syrian capital of Damascus on Sunday, killing at least five people and wounding 15.  Syrian state media reports that one soldier was killed in the attack.  Intelligence sources and witnesses say the strike hit a residential building near Iranian security bases.  Western intelligence sources added that the attack targeted a logistics center run by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.  Syrian military sources said anti-aircraft rockets launched to intercept the Israeli missile struck other locations, including near the city’s historic citadel.  Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad said the attack should be considered a “crime against humanity” since it followed weeks after the devastating Turkey-Syria earthquake.  Israel did not comment on the missile strikes.  Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle Reuters

Israeli Diplomat Ejected from African Union.  Israeli diplomat Sharon Bar-li was escorted out of the annual summit of the African Union on Saturday amid a row over Israel’s status in the bloc.  An AU spokesperson said Bar-li, who is deputy director for Africa at Israel’s foreign ministry, was removed since she is not the Israeli ambassador to Ethiopia, who was expected to represent Israel at the summit.  Israel’s foreign ministry condemned Bar-li’s removal, saying that she had proper credentials to attend.  The ministry also blamed South Africa and Algeria for the incident, saying that the two countries facilitated the move out of “hatred.”  South Africa denied the accusation, adding that the AU has yet to decide on Israel’s observer status.  The bloc is still considering Israel’s accreditation to the bloc due to concerns from Palestine, which has observer status.  Al Jazeera BBC Reuters

UN Cancels Vote on Israel Settlements.  The UAE said it will not call a UN Security Council vote on Monday on a draft resolution condemning Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territory.  The UAE said it is now working on a presidential statement (PSRT) on the matter, which is a formal statement that the Security Council must agree to by consensus.  The move is in response to the Israeli government’s recent approval of nine new settler outposts in the occupied West Bank.  Several Western governments have voiced their opposition to the settlements, which they say will escalate tensions with Palestine and undermine efforts for a two-state solution.  Reuters

Tunisia Expels European Trade Union Chief for Joining Protests.  Tunisia declared Esther Lynch, the head of the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) “persona non grata” and ordered her to leave the country on Saturday after she participated in an anti-government protest organized by Tunisia’s UGTT union.  Tunisian President Kais Saied said he ordered Lynch’s expulsion for making statements that “blatantly interfered with Tunisian internal affairs.”  Lynch later urged Saied to respect human rights and union activity.  Deutsche Welle Politico Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

France Ends Military Operations in Burkina Faso.  Burkina Faso’s military announced Sunday that France has officially ended military operations in the West African country.  The departure comes after Burkina Faso decided in January to direct France to withdraw its forces within a month.  Burkina Faso called for the French military to leave following growing anti-French sentiment and increasing ties with Russian mercenaries.  France 24 Reuters

Cyber & Tech

FBI Contains Cyber Incident Targeting New York Field Office.  The FBI said it had contained a cyber incident that affected the agency’s New York Field Office.  CNN first reported on the incident, citing two sources that said it impacted an FBI network used in investigations into child sexual exploitation.  The FBI has said it is investigating the incident and took action to patch the software vulnerability that led to it, though it has not named a suspect for the attack or provided further details.  BleepingComputer CNN CyberScoop

Navy Awards Lockheed Martin $1.2B Hypersonic Missile Contract.  The US Navy awarded a $1.2 billion contract to Lockheed Martin to produce hypersonic missiles and launcher systems.  The arms maker said its hypersonic weapon products under the contract will be integrated with the Navy’s Zumwalt-class destroyers.  Lockheed Martin added that the contract also includes additional hypersonic munitions for the Army, which plans to leverage the weapons in truck-based launchers later this year.  C4ISRNET

Blinken Says US, Musk Discussed Starlink in Ukraine.  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a NBS News interview that the US has had conversations with SpaceX CEO Elon Musk about the company’s Starlink internet services to Ukraine.  Blinken said, without elaborating, that the US government urged Musk not to restrict Kyiv’s access to Starlink, which has been vital for Ukrainian military communications.  SpaceX has sent a number of Starlink terminals to Ukraine to allow it to access the company’s nearly 4,000 satellite-strong network in low-Earth orbit.  Reuters

Semiconductor Giant Says Ransomware Attack on Supplier to Cost $250 Million.  Semiconductor-equipment maker Applied Materials announced that a ransomware attack on one of its suppliers will cost the company $250 million in the next quarter.  The company did not specify which of its suppliers was affected, though analysts believe it was MKS Instruments, which recently said it is recovering from an alleged ransomware attack.  The disruption to Applied Materials underscores concerns about supply chain impacts from cyber incidents.  The Record

EU Warns Europe Besieged by Chinese APTs.  The EU Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA) and the Computer Emergency Response Team of the EU (CERT-EU) warned that several Chinese military hacking groups – called advanced persistent threats (ATPs) – are targeting European entities.  The cyber authorities said the recent attacks are focused on identity theft.  The Record

Europol Busts CEO Fraud Gang.  Europol announced it had broken up a cyber fraud group that impersonated CEOs to steal money from target organizations.  The fraudsters used business email compromise (BEC) attacks to trick targets into making payments to accounts under the group’s control.  The group had managed to steal at least $40 million from victims.  Cyber authorities arrested eight suspected members of the fraud group in France and Israel and seized physical property and froze accounts linked to the criminal network.  BleepingComputer

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