Report for Monday, February 19, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Netanyahu refuses ceasefire pleas

Ukraine withdraws from Avdiivka

Cipher Brief Reporting — After Two Years and 300,000 Casualties in Ukraine, How is Russia Staying in the Fight?

Cipher Brief Expert View — Putin has Declared War on the West. It’s Time to Take the Fight to Russia.

U.S. designates Houthis a terrorist group

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Netanyahu refuses ceasefire pleas.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected calls from President Joe Biden and a host of world leaders to agree to a temporary ceasefire in Gaza.   “Those who want to prevent us from operating in Rafah are basically telling us: Lose the war,” Mr. Netanyahu said at a news conference in Jerusalem Saturday evening. “It’s true that there’s a lot of opposition abroad, but this is exactly the moment that we need to say that we won’t be doing a half or a third of the job.”   On Friday, President Biden called on Netanyahu to halt Israel’s military campaign in the Gaza Strip long enough to negotiate the release of hostages and delay Israel’s threatened ground offensive into Rafah.   “I’ve made the case, and I feel very strongly about it, that there has to be a temporary cease-fire to get the prisoners out, to get the hostages out,” Biden said. “I’m hoping that the Israelis will not make any massive land invasion in the meantime. It is my expectation that’s not going to happen.”  Others involved in efforts to resolve the crisis were not optimistic. “The pattern of the last few days is not very positive,” Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, who has been communicating with Hamas leaders during ceasefire talks, said Saturday at the Munich Security Conference. “We still see some difficulties on the humanitarian part of these negotiations.”  On Saturday, as Mr. Netanyahu was speaking, thousands of anti-government protesters were staging the largest protest against him in months.  AP New York Times  Wall Street Journal   Reuters Bloomberg  Al Jazeera  New York Times(Read An Apocalypse in the Making: Hunting Down Hamas Leaders in Rafah in The Cipher Brief.)

Nasser hospital collapses amid Israeli military raids, arrests.  Nasser hospital in Khan Younis, the largest medical facility in southern Gaza,  “is not functional anymore,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, head of the World Health Organization, said Sunday.   A WHO team sent to deliver fuel and assess medical needs was barred from entering the facility on Friday and Saturday.  The Israeli military said in a statement Friday that its forces had arrested 20 people who had participated in the Oct. 7 attacks, that it had detained dozens of others for questioning and that  it found mortar shells and grenades around the hospital. It said it had intelligence that hostages had been held at the complex and some hostage bodies could have been there.  On  Sunday, ABC-News reported, the IDF said it apprehended "hundreds of terrorists and other suspects who were hiding in the Nasser Hospital, some posing as medical staff." "Boxes of medicine were found with the names of Israeli hostages on them. The packages of medicine that were found were sealed and had not been transferred to the hostages," the IDF said.  New York Times  Washington Post ABC-News

Egypt denies breaking ground for Sinai refugee camp. Egyptian officials denied news stories that they are clearing land for a tent village for Palestinians fleeing from the Gaza Strip into the Sinai Peninsula, the country's State Information Service  said on Friday. The Sinai Foundation for Human Rights, an activist organization, published images last week showing construction trucks and concrete barriers in the Sinai near the border.   Last week,  Reuters and other news organizations reported that Egypt is preparing an area near the Gaza border where a refugee camp will be erected to house as many as 100,000  Palestinians in case the expected Israeli offensive in Rafah causes hordes of Gazans to flee for their lives into Egypt’s Sinai desert.  Reuters 

US envoy says Israel killed Palestinian police escorting Gaza aid.  David Satterfield, Washington's special regional envoy for humanitarian issues, said Friday that Israeli forces shot and killed Palestinian police protecting a U.N. humanitarian aid convoy in Rafah.  “With the departure of police escorts, it has been virtually impossible for the U.N. or anyone else, Jordan, the UAE, or any other implementer to safely move assistance in Gaza because of criminal elements,” Satterfield said at an event hosted by the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The police "certainly include Hamas elements,” Satterfield said. “They also include individuals who don't have a direct affiliation with Hamas who are there as part of the Palestinian Authority's remnant presence and security.”  On Feb. 10, Hamas and Gaza medics said that two Israeli airstrikes had killed five members of Rafah's Hamas-run police force, including a senior officer. It’s not clear whether that incident is the same as the shooting referenced by Satterfield.   Reuters

World Court hears arguments today on Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories.  The International Court of Justice in The Hague opens a week of hearings on the legal consequences of Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories, with more than 50 states due to address the judges. The hearings arise from the U.N. General Assembly’s 2022 request for an advisory opinion on the occupation.  Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki is slated to speak first.  Also speaking, representatives of the United States - Israel's strongest supporter, China, Russia, South Africa and Egypt. Israel is not scheduled but has sent written observations. An opinion from the judges could take several months. It will be non-binding.  Reuters Wall Street Journal

Israeli government formally rejects Palestinian state.  The Israeli government on Sunday unanimously approved a resolution declaring that a Palestinian state would not be imposed on Israel.  This was a symbolic move to respond to some allies’ statements that they may soon recognize a Palestinian state.  The Biden administration has been trying to broker a deal for the normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and  Saudi officials have said that won’t happen until Israel  consents to work toward a two-state solution, an idea Prime Minister Netanyahu has rejected.  The Israeli government resolution did not rule out the possibility of Palestinian statehood, but said “a settlement, if it is to be reached, will come about solely through direct negotiations between the parties, without preconditions.” New York Times Haaretz

Palestinian Authority, nearly broke, needs propping up.  The Biden administration is considering how to underwrite the Palestinian Authority, which the U.S. wants  to govern Gaza once hostilities have ceased.  The U.S. can’t contribute directly to the Palestinian Authority, so an indirect funding mechanism will have to be found.  The organization’s financial problems and corruption undercut its ability to seek support from Israel and the Palestinian public.  In October, Israel suspended the delivery of tax revenues to the Palestinian Authority.  The Israeli government suspended only revenue earmarked for the Palestinian Authority’s employees in Gaza. In response, the Palestinian Authority said it wouldn’t accept partial revenue transfers, which pay the salaries of about 150,000 public employees in the West Bank and Gaza. In December, President Biden asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to transfer the frozen tax revenues to Norway for safekeeping. Israel’s government agreed to the plan, but a few disagreements remained.  Wall Street Journal 

Israel sabotaged Iran’s gas pipelines: sources.  Israel covertly blew up two major natural gas pipelines in Iran, the New York Times reported Friday, cutting heat and cooking gas to millions of people. Though the disruption could be repaired, the attack on Iran’s infrastructure, relied on by industries was chalked up as an escalation in the covert war.  New York Times 

US to veto UN Security Council vote Tuesday demanding Gaza ceasefire.  The United Nations Security Council votes  Tuesday on an Algerian resolution demanding an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in  Gaza.   U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield said the text could jeopardize "sensitive negotiations" aimed at brokering a pause in the war. Algeria requested on Saturday that the council vote on Tuesday, diplomats said. "The United States does not support action on this draft resolution. Should it come up for a vote as drafted, it will not be adopted," Thomas-Greenfield said Saturday.  Reuters

Brazil’s Lula compares Gaza war to Holocaust, infuriates Israeli officials. Israel accused Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of trivializing the Holocaust and offending the Jewish people on Sunday after he compared the Israeli war against Hamas to the Nazi genocide during World War Two.  "What is happening in the Gaza Strip with the Palestinian people has no parallel in other historical moments. In fact, it did exist when Hitler decided to kill the Jews," Lula told reporters during the 37th African Union Summit in Addis Ababa.   Reuters Associated Press  Bloomberg

EU’s top diplomat warns Israel can’t defeat Hamas by military means. E.U. Foreign Affairs Chief Josep Borell said that Israel needs a political or diplomatic solution to the ongoing conflict with Hamas, not a military one. In his remarks at the Munich Security Conference, Borell said that the conflict in Gaza needs to end, but that the West Bank is “boiling” and is an obstacle to a potential two-state solution. He warned the E.U. and the U.N. that if support wavers in the West Bank greater conflict could arise.  Politico

THE RED SEA

Houthis attack another ship in Gulf of Aden.  Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis said on Monday that they attacked the Rubymar cargo ship in the Gulf of Aden. A Houthi spokesperson said the crew is safe, but the ship was severely damaged, forcing it to stop and putting it at risk of sinking.  British maritime security firm Ambrey said the Belize-flagged, British-registered and Lebanese-operated ship was attacked on Sunday as it traveled from the UAE to Bulgaria.  The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations agency said the crew of a vessel abandoned ship after an explosion – apparently the same incident.  Reuters The Guardian

U.S. Designates Houthis a Terrorist Group.  The U.S. State Department officially designated Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group, restoring a designation from the Trump administration that was reversed by Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken in 2021. The move grants the U.S. new powers to restrict the group’s access to the global financial system. The decision was delayed for 30 days to allow humanitarian aid groups working in Houthi-controlled areas to adjust to potential sanctions. The action aims to pressure the Houthis to stop attacks in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Critics argue that a different classification, Foreign Terrorist Organization, would enable harsher penalties. Blinken has emphasized the possibility of removing the designation if the Houthis change their behavior.  New York Times U.S. Department of State 

U.S. launches five strikes targeting Houthis.  U.S. Central Command said U.S. forces launched five self-defense strikes against the Houthis in Yemen on Saturday.  The strikes hit three mobile anti-ship cruise missiles, one unmanned underwater vessel, and one unmanned surface vessel.  CENTCOM said the missiles and vessels posed an imminent threat to U.S. Navy and merchant ships in the area.  CENTCOM noted that it is the first time the Houthis have been observed using an unmanned underwater vessel since the group started attacks in the Red Sea in October.  Reuters Stars and Stripes 

UK’s Cameron raises Red Sea, human rights issues with Chinese counterpart. During the Munich Security Conference, British Foreign Minister David Cameron held talks with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, as confirmed by the U.K. Foreign Office. Cameron urged China to leverage its influence with Iran to address the actions of Houthi militants in the Red Sea, as he believes they have a vested interest given their shipping routes are disrupted. Additionally, Cameron addressed human rights concerns in Xinjiang and Hong Kong and advocated for the release of British parliamentarians sanctioned by China Reuters

Canada urges China to help keep Red Sea secure, and stop aiding Russia to evade sanctions. Canada's Foreign Minister Melanie Joly emphasized the importance of China's involvement in maintaining the safety of the Red Sea for commerce, citing the risk posed to Chinese ships in the region. During a bilateral meeting with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Joly urged Beijing to leverage its influence to encourage the Houthis to keep the Red Sea open, highlighting the mutual benefit for China as a major exporter. Joly's remarks underscore Canada's diplomatic efforts to address maritime security concerns and encourage China to adhere to international norms, particularly regarding sanctions evasion by Russia.  Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — After Two Years and 300,000 Casualties in Ukraine, How is Russia Staying in the Fight?  As Russia's war against Ukraine approaches its two-year mark, the staggering toll is revealed: over 300,000 soldiers lost to death or injury, nearly matching the size of the initial force deployed by Vladimir Putin. Despite these losses, the Kremlin sustains the fight through various means. Russia has recruited extensively from its population, including prisoners offered pardons for battlefield service, and offers lucrative salaries exceeding the national average. The government has even targeted economically vulnerable communities and neighboring countries for recruitment. Despite casualties, the Kremlin maintains resilience, clamping down on dissent and tapping into additional manpower sources if needed. Financially, Russia diverts significant resources to war needs, aided by oil and gas revenues and procuring supplies from North Korea and Iran. While families of soldiers express grievances, the Kremlin suppresses dissent, aiming to outlast Ukraine through attrition, banking on weakening Western support for its adversary.  The Cipher Brief 

Ukraine withdraws from Avdiivka, Putin hails 'important victory'.  Ukraine withdrew from the besieged eastern city of Avdiivka, marking Russia’s most significant battlefield gain in months after it captured Bakhmut in May 2023. Ukraine’s top general Oleksandr Syrskyi said the withdrawal aimed to save the lives of troops defending the city and prevent them from being encircled. Ukrainian forces have shifted to more favorable defensive lines. Russia’s defense ministry said it advanced around 5 miles at Avdiivka, taking full control of the city’s key coke plant. Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed the advance as an important victory.  The retreat of Ukrainian forces from the city demonstrates Russia’s willingness to bear significant losses to make advances. It also underscores the challenges Ukraine faces, such as war fatigue, shortcomings in countering the numerically superior and better-equipped Russian military, and the dire need for fresh Western military aid. President Joe Biden said he blamed U.S. lawmakers’ failure to approve new aid for Kyiv as a factor in the fall of Avdiivka. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said at the Munich Security Conference that Russia will continue to have the advantage if Ukraine is kept “in an artificial deficit of artillery and long-range weapons.”  Reuters Reuters Wall Street Journal Bloomberg Bloomberg Associated Press Kyiv Independent France 24 

ISW: Russia’s capture of Avdiivka does not suggest ability to secure significant gains.  The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that despite Russia’s capture of Avdiivka, Russian forces have not demonstrated the ability to secure significant gains across large territories. ISW says the fall of Avdiivka is not indicative of a tactical success, given the fact that Russian forces have only advanced over 6 miles since intensifying efforts to take the city in October 2023. ISW said that the rate of progress suggests Russia does not have the ability to conduct the widespread and competent cross-country maneuvers needed to seize further Ukrainian territory in the immediate future. ISW also notes that Russia’s campaign to take Avdiivka was costly, with Ukraine reporting that Russia has lost over 20,000 troops, 199 tanks, and 481 armored fighting vehicles since it stepped up efforts to take the city.  ISW Kyiv Independent

​​THE MUNICH DISPATCHES:Ukraine and the World are Waiting on Washington - an insider interview with General David Petraeus (Ret.) on expectations of U.S. support for Ukraine, NATO security against Russian threats, and the significance of the fall of Avdiivka. The Cipher Brief

Ukraine says it repelled Russian offensive on southern front.  Ukraine said on Sunday that it repelled a Russian offensive on the southern front in the Zaporizhzhia region, following the fall of Avdiivka. Ukraine’s military said Russia lost 18 armored vehicles and three tanks in the attack and was forced to retreat to previous positions.  Kyiv Independent Reuters 

Ukraine, Russia reporting downing drones.  Ukraine said it downed four Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. The Ukrainian Air Force said the drones were launched from Russia’s Belgorod region. Separately, Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed Russian air defenses destroyed 33 Ukrainian drones in the Belgorod, Voronezh, Kursk, Bryansk, and Kaluga regions on Saturday. The ministry said no significant damage was reported.  Kyiv Independent

Zelensky: We must make security a reality again.  Ukrainian President Zelensky urged global unity against Russian aggression, advocating for restoration of the rule-based world order and enhanced security. Addressing the Munich Security Conference, Zelensky highlighted the threat posed by Russia's war in Ukraine to global stability, urging immediate action. He praised Europe's response to the conflict and debunked myths of Russian military superiority, emphasizing the need for defense coalitions and security agreements between Western nations and Ukraine. The Record 

THE MUNICH DISPATCHES:  In Europe, A Focus on Russia and the United States - an insider interview with Dr. Evelyn Farkas, The McCain Institute on the Ukraine war and the relationship between the U.S. and the rest of the world.The Cipher Brief

E.U.’s top diplomat calls for quicker action to support Ukraine.  At the Munich Security Conference, EU's chief diplomat Josep Borrell criticized Western allies' initial indecision in providing military assistance to Ukraine, suggesting that the development of the war could have been different if allies acted sooner in defense of Kyiv. Borrell commended European unity in supporting Ukraine, highlighting the 50-billion-euro E.U. support package for Kyiv, but emphasized the need to act quicker.  Kyiv Independent

Kremlin runs covert disinformation campaign to undermine Zelensky, documents show. Documents from the Kremlin reveal that there were Russian misinformation campaigns aimed at undermining Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and exacerbating divisions between Zelensky and former Ukrainian General Valery Zaluzhny. Over a year ago, Russian political strategists knew they needed to "strengthen the conflict between Zaluzhny and Zelensky, along the lines of Zelensky intending to fire him." Additionally, Kremlin documents point to Russian efforts to use social media platforms and push hundreds of fake news articles. These articles portrayed Zelensky as unfit to serve Ukraine and as "hysterical and weak."  Washington Post 

Ukrainian data casts doubt on precision of N. Korea missiles fired by Russia. In recent weeks, Russia launched 24 North Korean ballistic missiles at Ukraine, with only two hitting military targets, according to Ukraine's top prosecutor. Ukraine’s preliminary assessment suggests these missiles, part of the KN-23/24 series, were relatively inaccurate, raising doubts about the reliability of North Korea's weaponry.  Reuters 

Zelensky signs German and French security pact. French President Macron announced a 10-year security pact on Friday which includes increased arms deliveries, military training, and up to 3 billion euros ($3.2 billion) in military aid for Ukraine in 2024. During his European visit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed bilateral security agreements with France and Germany, signaling robust, enduring support as Ukraine strengthens ties with Europe. Germany committed to long-term military support and training to assist Ukraine in fully restoring its territorial integrity, emphasizing ongoing aid in deterring future attacks. Zelensky asserted at a press event in Germany that these security pacts signify Western allies' understanding that “Ukraine will eventually be in NATO.”  Reuters Associated Press Kyiv Independent Politico 

Japan hosts Ukraine reconstruction conference, pledges new aid.  Japan held a conference on the reconstruction of Ukraine where it pledged aid to Kyiv in seven sectors, including mine clearance and agriculture. Although no official monetary figures were released, the new Japanese support is estimated at ¥15.8 billion ($105 million). Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is set to meet with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal later on Monday. Ukraine reported an estimated total war loss of nearly $499 billion by the end of 2023.  Bloomberg Reuters Associated Press ABC Kyiv Independent

War in Ukraine has cost Russia up to $211 billion, US official says.  Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine is estimated to have cost Moscow up to $211 billion, according to a senior U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity. The official highlighted the economic toll on Russia, projecting a loss of $1.3 trillion in anticipated economic growth through 2026 and Russia’s reported losses of over $10 billion in canceled or postponed arms sales. The source also estimated that around 315,000 Russian troops have been killed or injured in the war — a staggering loss, though it contrasts with Ukraine's General Staff’s claims of 400,300 Russian casualties. The official also highlighted that Ukraine has reportedly destroyed or damaged numerous Russian Navy vessels in the Black Sea.  Kyiv Independent

Ukraine’s foreign minister meets Chinese counterpart.  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that he met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference over the weekend. Kuleba said he and Wang discussed bilateral relations, trade, and Ukraine’s efforts to organize a high-level meeting to discuss ways to end the war. China said that Wang reiterated Beijing’s view that it will promote peace talks, though he said earlier on Saturday that conditions are not “ripe” for the warring parties to enter negotiations.  Bloomberg Reuters

Russia’s Medvedev threatens nuclear attack over loss of occupied territories.  Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, threatened to use nuclear weapons against the U.S., the U.K., Germany, and Ukraine if Russia loses occupied Ukrainian territories. He added that a defeat of Russia in Ukraine and “disintegration of the country” could trigger a global nuclear war. Medvedev, a former Russian president, has made similar threats before, seen by critics as bluffs to intimidate the West for concessions.  Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine successfully tests its own version of Russia’s Lancet drones.  Ukraine has conducted initial tests of combat drones resembling Russia's Lancet drones, with plans for combat testing soon. Russia's Lancet kamikaze drones, known for their effectiveness, have a 40-kilometer range. Ukrainian Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said on Sunday that the Ukrainian equivalents, produced by four contractors, underwent successful testing, with plans to establish production capacity for around 100 drones per month within a few months. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently signed a decree to create a separate branch of Ukraine's Armed Forces dedicated to drones. Ukraine seeks to produce one million drones this year to support its military against Russia.  Kyiv Independent (Read Made in Iran: The Drones that are Killing Americans, Israelis, and Ukrainians in The Cipher Brief)

PM says Denmark to donate all its artillery to Ukraine. Denmark has pledged to donate all artillery rounds from its stockpiles to Ukraine, announced Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen at the Munich Security Conference. These shells are vital for Ukraine's daily battlefield operations. Frederiksen emphasized Russia's destabilizing actions globally and urged swift support for Ukraine. The EU struggles to fulfill its promise of 1 million shells by March, while the U.S. faces internal disputes over defense assistance. Czechia offers to provide 800,000 rounds, seeking funding from partners. Amidst challenges, plans emerge to purchase shells from non-EU countries, despite opposition from some member states like France, Greece, and Cyprus.  Kyiv Independent

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT OPINION — Ukraine's Military Reset Is Doomed Without More US Aid.  Cipher Brief Expert and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Adm. James Stavridis (Ret.) writes in Bloomberg that Ukraine needs a military reset to better counter invading Russian forces. Stavridis suggests leadership changes, emphasis on advanced technologies like F-16s, and efforts to restore the narrative that Ukraine’s fate is linked to U.S. actions. He highlights the challenges that Ukraine faces, such as disputes in military leadership, delays in U.S. support, and increased opposition from Republicans driven by former President Donald Trump’s criticism of NATO. Stavridis urges renewed leadership from Washington to support Ukraine to bolster Kyiv and wider global security.  Bloomberg

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

The Americas

FBI Director says China cyberattacks on U.S. Infrastructure now at unprecedented scale.  At the Munich security conference amid a focus on Ukraine and the war in Gaza, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned global intelligence chiefs and policy makers against overlooking China's covert cyber threat. Wray says efforts by Beijing to plant malware into U.S. critical infrastructure is now at “a scale greater than we’d seen before”. He highlighted Beijing's increased deployment of offensive malware in US critical infrastructure, exemplified by the Volt Typhoon hacking network that was revealed last year. Wray stressed the potential for disruptive attacks, cautioning that this was just the beginning of China's efforts. The FBI is actively investigating, with Wray urging global cooperation and increased defense measures among allies. Biden administration officials echo concerns, noting China's escalating cyber capabilities and targeting of vital US systems. Wray's efforts seek to rally international action against Chinese cyber intrusions, marking a shift from prior skepticism towards the seriousness of the threat. Wall Street Journal 

Lindsey Graham: Time to designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism.  Senator Lindsey Graham is advocating for designating Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism following the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Navalny died in a high-security prison, with suspicions of Putin's involvement. Graham praised Navalny's bravery and suggested imposing sanctions on Russia akin to those on other state sponsors of terrorism, namely Syria, Cuba, North Korea and Iran. He aims to introduce legislation for this designation soon. Navalny, subject to repeated targeting including imprisonment and poisoning, sparked international outrage. His death occurs ahead of Russia's presidential election, potentially prolonging Putin's rule. Politico

Biden says Putin is responsible for Navalny death.  President Joe Biden directly blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for the death of Alexei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader, expressing outrage and warning of potential consequences. Biden praised Navalny's courage in opposing Putin's government and vowed to consider further actions against Russia. Despite Russia's denial of a nuclear threat, Biden affirmed vigilance regarding Russia's military activities, including anti-satellite technology. The White House is evaluating potential responses to Navalny's death, which exacerbates already strained U.S.-Russian relations, notably marked by disagreement over Ukraine. Vice President Kamala Harris affirmed U.S. commitment to NATO and expressed condolences to Navalny's wife.  Reuters  

Intelligence Chairman Defends His Hints About a Russian Space Weapon.  Representative Michael R. Turner defended his decision to publicly hint about classified intelligence regarding Russia's purported deployment of a new space-based nuclear weapon, stating it was necessary to prevent a potential crisis. Despite facing criticism, Turner maintained that the information needed to be disclosed, leading to the Biden administration taking action on the matter. While some Republican colleagues doubted his motives, Turner emphasized that the statement was issued by his committee and ultimately helped bring attention to the issue. The Biden administration, however, briefed Congress that any Russian space-based system posed no immediate threat, rejecting Turner's call to declassify the related intelligence. Despite legislative gridlock over foreign aid packages, the White House's briefing led to rare Republican approval of the Biden administration's stance toward Russia.  NY Times 

Blinken visiting Brazil, Argentina.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to visit Brazil and Argentina from Feb. 20 to 23. In Brazil, he will meet President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to discuss the U.S.-Brazil partnership on workers' rights and energy transition. Blinken will also attend a G20 meeting in Rio de Janeiro, where he plans to engage world leaders on shared initiatives for peace and stability, including efforts to support Haiti. Blinken is not scheduled to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the G20 meeting. In Buenos Aires, Blinken will meet Argentine President Javier Milei to discuss economic growth, human rights, democratic governance, critical minerals, and trade and investment.  Reuters SCMP 

UK, US, and Canada raise alarm over foreign information manipulation. The U.S., Britain, and Canada released a joint statement to express deep concern over foreign information manipulation, emphasizing the need for a collective approach to counter the threat. Worries persist about the global spread of misinformation, particularly on social media platforms, as countries with significant economic influence, including the U.S., Britain, and India, prepare for elections. The joint statement endorses a framework on countering foreign state information and wider information manipulation with a focus on building resilience in partner countries.  Reuters

U.S. lawmakers propose restrictions on China biotech companies.  U.S. lawmakers are considering bills to restrict Chinese biotech companies from doing business with federally funded medical providers, citing concerns about national security and data privacy. While critics argue that such restrictions would impede scientific advancements, supporters claim the legislation is crucial to protecting U.S. interests. The National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology supports the bill, stating it would safeguard federal data and discourage unfair competition from Chinese companies. The debate unfolds amid broader U.S.-China tensions and as both nations identify biotech as a critical national interest.  Associated Press 

Mexicans turn out in droves to 'protect democracy' ahead of elections. Huge crowds gathered in Mexico City's main square to support the nation's electoral authority, protesting against President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's attempts to weaken the body ahead of the June presidential election. Organizers claimed 700,000 attendees, potentially marking one of the largest protests against Lopez Obrador, while the city government, controlled by his party, reported just 90,000. Lopez Obrador's proposed constitutional reforms, including transforming the National Electoral Institute (INE), have sparked concerns about influencing the upcoming election, with one reform aiming to shrink the INE's authority and alter its structure. Protesters accused the president of attempting to consolidate power, while also criticizing his handling of violence and social spending programs. Reuters Associated Press 

Mayorkas meets with Guatemalan leader Arévalo following House impeachment over immigration. U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas met on Saturday at the Munich Security Conference with the newly elected Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo. The pair discussed regional migration, Guatemala’s economy, and security in Central America. Mayorkas' meeting with Arévalo was the first public meeting after his impeachment by the U.S. House of Representatives last week.  Associated Press

Asia and Oceania

China not expected to let past overshadow relations with Indonesia’s new leader Subianto.  Indonesian defense minister Prabowo Subianto's controversial past, including allegations of involvement in anti-Chinese riots in 1998, has sparked speculation about his approach to China as a future president. However, diplomatic observers anticipate him maintaining Indonesia's current pragmatic stance towards Beijing. Despite concerns raised on Chinese social media about his past, unofficial tallies suggest Prabowo has secured a significant lead in the presidential race. While his approach to China remains uncertain, experts expect continuity with the current administration's policies, which have seen growing Chinese investments in Indonesia, indicating a forward-looking approach in bilateral relations. SCMP

Vacation in North Korea? Reclusive State Reopens to Tourism—But Only for Russians.  During a recent four-day weekend, nearly 100 Russians traveled to North Korea, becoming the first foreign tourists to enter the country since the pandemic began. They visited Pyongyang's landmarks, watched cultural performances, and enjoyed skiing, facing fewer restrictions than anticipated. The timing of this visit aligns with the deepening economic and military ties between Russia and North Korea following a summit between President Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un in 2020. North Korea has provided Russia with munitions and missiles, while Putin has pledged assistance for North Korea's satellite projects. The influx of Russian tourists highlights the growing cooperation between the two countries.  Wall Street Journal 

China to send coast guard ships as tensions rise over Taiwanese islands. China's coast guard announced plans to bolster law enforcement activities and conduct regular patrols near Taiwanese-controlled islands following tensions over the deaths of two Chinese nationals in an incident near a Taiwanese island. Taiwan defended its coast guard's actions after a Chinese speedboat capsized during an encounter with Taiwanese authorities, prompting China to condemn Taiwan's actions as "wicked." China's coast guard stated it would reinforce patrols around Kinmen and Xiamen to maintain operational order and safeguard fishermen's safety, while Taiwan reaffirmed its commitment to enforcing rules against unauthorized Chinese access to its waters. Despite ongoing tensions, low-level Chinese officials attended Taipei's Lantern Festival, though Taipei's mayor declined to meet them, citing past protests against similar visits. Reuters 

Eyeing China, senior US lawmaker vows to back funding for Pacific Islands. Republican Representative Michael McCaul voiced support for funding U.S.-allied Pacific Island nations to counter China's influence, advocating to include them in any supplemental security aid bill. Despite bipartisan backing for Compacts of Free Association (COFAs) with Micronesia, Marshall Islands, and Palau, Congress has yet to approve the necessary $2.3 billion funding, causing concern among island leaders. McCaul proposed a $900 million package for COFAs and intends to ensure its inclusion in the House's version of the foreign aid supplemental bill, which the Senate recently passed without COFA funding. He emphasized the House's independent review of the bill likely to take place in mid-March. Reuters

China’s Wang Yi tells Blinken US should lift sanctions on Chinese firms. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged the United States to lift sanctions on Chinese companies and individuals, cautioning that attempts to de-couple from China would only harm the U.S. during talks with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Despite recent signs of improvement in Sino-U.S. relations, tensions persist, particularly regarding sanctions on Chinese entities over alleged military collaboration and human rights abuses. Wang stressed the importance of abiding by the one-China principle for stability in the Taiwan Strait. While both sides exchanged views on regional issues like the Ukraine crisis and the Korean Peninsula, details were not disclosed. The meeting reflects ongoing efforts to maintain dialogue and cooperation between China and the U.S. Reuters 

Japan successfully launches next-generation H3 rocket after failure last year. Japan's successful launch of its new H3 flagship rocket marks a significant achievement, revitalizing its space program after previous setbacks, including the failure of the rocket's inaugural flight last year. The launch, which also follows the recent success of Japan's lunar lander SLIM, signals Japan's efforts to strengthen its space program as it partners with the United States to counter China. The H3's flawless liftoff and deployment of satellites have brought jubilation to scientists at the Tanegashima Space Center, with plans already underway for future launches. The H3 aims to replace the aging H-IIA rocket, securing Japan's independent access to space and demonstrating its growing prowess in the space sector. Reuters

Tribal violence rises in Papua New Guinea as dozens are killed fighting.  Dozens of men were killed in tribal violence in Papua New Guinea's remote highlands, with conflicting reports initially stated that there were 53 fatalities, later corrected to 26. George Kakas, a local police commander, described the attack as a result of two tribes ambushing and killing another group, leaving some bodies unrecovered in the bushes. Graphic images showed bodies piled on a truck. Tribal conflict is not uncommon in the region, with Enga province witnessing a surge in violence last year, including a widely condemned incident where men were tied up and dragged behind a truck. Australia's Prime Minister expressed concern, pledging support for security and police training in Papua New Guinea. Reuters BBC The Guardian 

Europe

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT OPINION — Putin has Declared War on the West. It’s Time to Take the Fight to Russia.  Former Senior Member of the British Foreign Service Nick Fishwick says that European powers have historically been “too passive and risk averse” when dealing with Russia, and that the time is now to “take the fight” to Russia. The Cipher Brief 

Fears for Ukraine, and worries about US, dominate defense forum.  At the Munich Security Conference, American senators shared a poignant anecdote from Ukrainian soldiers anxiously awaiting news of US House approval for military aid while in combat against Russian forces. The somber tale underscored the prevailing gloom at the conference, where Ukraine's deteriorating situation on the battlefield and doubts about US support dominated discussions. With a $60 billion aid package awaiting a House vote, there's a sense that US assistance is Ukraine's last hope, although there's uncertainty about what victory would entail. Amidst fears of a collapsing Ukrainian military, officials highlighted the urgent need for aid while avoiding speculation on the outcome of the conflict. Ukraine's dire need for ammunition and infantry was further highlighted by the recent fall of Avdiivka to Russian forces, signaling the Kremlin's first major conquest in months and emphasizing the challenges faced by President Zelenskyy's administration in countering a determined Russian adversary.  Politico

Ukraine’s Allies Are Gaming Out a World in Which the US Retreats.  NATO members are privately expressing urgent concerns about the possibility of a Russian attack on one of them, questioning the reliability of the US in protecting Europe within the alliance. President Biden's remarks on Congress's delay in aid to Ukraine highlighted Europe's growing apprehension about the US as a dependable ally. At the Munich Security Conference, defense officials discussed fears of a diminished US commitment to the region and the potential for Russia to exploit this by targeting a NATO ally directly. Amidst uncertainty, discussions also revolved around Ukraine's dwindling military supplies and the stalled $60 billion aid package in Congress, underscoring doubts about US support for the country.  Bloomberg 

Stop whining, nagging about Trump, Dutch prime minister tells Europeans in Munich. Outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, a leading candidate for NATO's next secretary-general, urged Europe to shift its focus from lamenting Donald Trump's policies to supporting Ukraine. Rutte, addressing the Munich Security Conference, criticized European complaints about Trump, emphasizing the need for increased defense spending and ammunition production regardless of U.S. leadership. He advocated for heightened European support for Ukraine based on shared interests, dismissing personal campaigns for NATO leadership. Rutte expressed optimism about the eventual passage of a stalled U.S. military aid package for Ukraine, signaling potential cooperation despite political differences.  Reuters Fox News 

THE MUNICH DISPATCHES:  The Big Surprise Was What Wasn't Prominently Discussed - an insider interview with Admiral Mike Rogers (Ret.) on European security, the Ukraine war, and implications of widening use of artificial intelligence. The Cipher Brief

Number of detained Russians across nation rises to 400.  Since the death of Alexei Navalny, over 400 people have been detained across 32 Russian cities as citizens gather to mourn, marking the largest wave of political arrests in the country since September 2022. Navalny, Putin's prominent opponent, died at the "Polar Wolf" Arctic penal colony where he was serving a lengthy sentence. The bulk of detentions occurred in St. Petersburg and Moscow, while Russian state news agencies, controlled by the Kremlin, have remained silent on the events. Reuters

Navalny's widow joins EU foreign ministers in Brussels as Ukraine war nears two-year mark. Germany plans to propose fresh sanctions against Moscow following the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, announced Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock ahead of an EU foreign ministers' meeting attended by Navalny's widow. The EU ministers were already set to discuss the bloc's 13th package of sanctions against Russia, with Hungary yet to approve proposed restrictions targeting nearly 200 entities and individuals. The EU's top diplomat suggested blacklisting Russian prison officials linked to Navalny's death, while Yulia Navalnaya vowed to continue her husband's fight for a free Russia. Baerbock expressed hope for swift EU agreement on new sanctions, emphasizing the need to hold President Vladimir Putin accountable for suppressing dissent and curtailing freedom. Reuters

CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — Alexei Navalny’s Death: What It May Mean for Russia, Ukraine and the West.  The U.S. and others have blamed Moscow for the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. His death has spurred calls to impose consequences on Russia and send further aid to Ukraine in response.  The Cipher Brief

Analysis —Navalny’s Death Crowns a Long-Running Campaign Against Kremlin Critics.  Alexei Navalny's death leaves Russia devoid of any significant opposition figure with the potential to challenge President Vladimir Putin, symbolizing the Kremlin's relentless efforts to eliminate dissenting voices. While reactions within Russia were subdued due to the criminalization of political dissent, residents laid flowers at makeshift memorials, promptly removed by plainclothes officials. Nearly 400 people were detained at rallies and commemorations. State television depicted Putin's nonchalant activities amidst accusations of Kremlin responsibility for Navalny's death, which the Kremlin vehemently denied. Navalny, known for his defiance against the Kremlin, maintained a strong public persona even while ill, taunting officials in public appearances. Despite suspicions surrounding his death, Western officials acknowledge uncertainty regarding the exact circumstances.  Wall Street Journal 

Russia will not intimidate me, Estonia’s Kallas says. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas shrugged off a Russian arrest warrant issued against her, dismissing it as an intimidation tactic amidst speculation of her potential candidacy for a senior European Union role. The warrant, issued along with others for Baltic politicians, accused them of destroying Soviet-era monuments, a charge Kallas vehemently denied. She labeled the move as part of Russia's playbook to deter her from advocating for Ukraine and European interests, expressing defiance and asserting that the warrant holds no real consequence unless they enter Russian territory. Kallas's vocal criticism of Moscow's actions in Ukraine has heightened her profile, fueling speculation about her potential future role in Brussels and further stoking tensions with Russia. Reuters 

Europe seeks to sway Trump camp on NATO, Ukraine aid. European leaders at the Munich Security Conference are navigating a delicate balance in response to Donald Trump's influence on NATO and U.S.-European relations. While distancing themselves from Trump's previous comments on NATO defense spending, they are strategically aligning their messaging to appeal to him and his Republican supporters. Concerns loom over NATO's future under a potential Trump presidency, as well as the delay of a crucial $60 billion aid package for Ukraine in the U.S. Congress. European leaders are actively engaging with U.S. lawmakers and stakeholders, emphasizing increased defense spending and aid for Ukraine as beneficial to both European security and U.S. interests, particularly in countering Chinese influence. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz highlighted the importance of Europe taking greater responsibility for its own security amidst these uncertainties. Reuters

THE MUNICH DISPATCHES:  U.S. Delegation Brings Some Reassurance to European Allies - an insider interview with Ambassador Kurt Volker on the impact of the U.S. Congressional delegation to the Munich Security Conference and the message it sent on Russia, Ukraine, and European security.The Cipher Brief

Italy foreign minister sees Ukraine joining EU and NATO once war ends.  Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani declared at the Munich Security Conference that Ukraine is destined to join both the European Union and NATO. However, he emphasized that NATO membership is currently unattainable while Ukraine remains embroiled in conflict with Russia. Tajani cautioned against precipitous actions, noting that having a NATO member in conflict with Russia could lead to catastrophic consequences akin to World War III. Reuters

In unusual move, China offers to back Hungary in security matters. During a meeting with Prime Minister Viktor Orban, China extended support to Hungary on public security issues, expressing the hope that collaboration on this matter would become "a new highlight of bilateral relations." Chinese Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong, during his visit to Budapest, expressed hope that this expanded cooperation would become a notable aspect of bilateral relations, particularly in combating terrorism and transnational crimes. Efforts on the reduction of international crime and collaboration efforts align with President Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative.  Reuters South China Morning Post

THE MUNICH DISPATCHES:  Europe Shifts to China - an insider interview with Dmitri Alperovitch, Silverado Policy Accelerator on concerns about dependence on China, artificial intelligence, and Ukraine.The Cipher Brief

Hungary’s government declines offer to meet US senators seeking approval for Sweden’s NATO bid.  A bipartisan delegation of U.S. senators visited Budapest, urging Hungary's government to approve Sweden's NATO membership, which it has delayed for over 18 months. The senators announced plans to submit a joint resolution to Congress condemning alleged democratic backsliding in Hungary and pressing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to lift the block on Sweden's integration into NATO. Despite disappointment over the Hungarian government's refusal to meet, the delegation remains hopeful for progress when parliament reconvenes on Feb. 26. Sen. Thom Tillis emphasized the importance of Hungary's support for freedom-loving nations, while Sen. Jeanne Shaheen expressed optimism for Sweden's accession if Orbán pushes for a vote. Associated Press

THE MUNICH DISPATCHES:  The Year of Putin's Revenge - and insider interview with NYT White House  Correspondent David Sanger on Russia, Ukraine, China, and NATO.The Cipher Brief

Middle East

Iraqi armed groups dial down U.S. attacks on request of Iran commander. Iran's Quds Force commander, Esmail Qaani, visited Baghdad, prompting a halt in attacks on U.S. troops by Iran-aligned groups in Iraq, sources revealed to Reuters. Qaani's meeting with armed group representatives at Baghdad airport, shortly after the U.S. blamed these groups for killing three soldiers, emphasized the risk of provoking heavy U.S. retaliation. While one faction initially resisted, most complied, leading to a suspension of attacks since Feb. 4. Qaani's intervention, not previously reported, played a crucial role in de-escalating tensions, with sources highlighting his warning against actions that could provoke direct retaliation against Iran. Neither Qaani nor the involved parties responded to requests for comment, and the White House and Pentagon remained silent. Reuters Washington Post  Stars and Stripes 

U.S. strikes kills Afghans recruited to fight for Iran.  The NY Times is out with a new report that says that among those killed in a recent U.S. strike in Syria, were 12 members of an Afghan unit known as the ​​Fatemiyoun Brigade.  The group, described as ‘largely overlooked’ is believed to be about 20,000 strong, and made up of Afghan refugees living in Iran.  It is reportedly under the command of Iran’s Quds Force.  NY Times

Africa

US Condemns Rwanda’s Support of Armed Rebels in Congo.  The United States condemned escalating violence in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) on Saturday, attributing it to the M23 armed group allegedly backed by Rwanda. The State Department urged M23 to cease hostilities and withdraw from areas around Sake and Goma. Accusing Rwanda of supporting M23, the US called for immediate withdrawal of Rwandan military personnel and surface-to-air missile systems from DRC to safeguard civilians and peacekeepers. Despite Rwanda's denial, clashes between M23, Congolese forces, and supporting militias have displaced communities. South Africa announced sending 2,900 troops to bolster efforts by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in aiding Congo against rebel groups.  Bloomberg Reuters Associated Press 

Somalia’s president accuses Ethiopia of trying to annex territory with Somaliland sea deal. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud accused Ethiopia of attempting to annex part of Somalia's territory through a sea access agreement with the breakaway region of Somaliland. Mohamud condemned the deal, alleging it alters Somalia's borders and effectively cedes territory to Ethiopia. Although specifics of the agreement remain undisclosed, it likely involves Ethiopia's construction of a port in Somaliland in exchange for recognition. Somaliland, enjoying de facto independence for thirty years, faces a sovereignty dispute with Somalia, which continues to assert authority over the region.  Associated Press

Senegal's Sall promises to hold delayed presidential vote as soon as possible. Senegalese President Macky Sall on Friday said he planned to fully comply with a court decision that ruled against the postponement of the presidential election to December. Sall pledges to hold negotiations to organize the election as soon as possible.   Reuters

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Drone Warfare, AI Risks Are Among the Big Munich Talking Points. Ukraine's use of drones has partially countered Russia's military advantage during the two-year invasion, enabling strikes even within Russian territory. At the Munich Security Conference, NATO officials warned of challenges in controlling airspace due to drone proliferation, urging bolstered air defenses in Europe. Ukraine's digital transformation minister showcased drone capabilities, including targeting Russian warships near Crimea to maintain vital shipping routes. Increased investment in drones by Ukraine and allies aims to further disrupt Russian operations. Meanwhile, Russia's reliance on drones, including Iranian-made models, underscores the evolving dynamics of modern warfare.  Bloomberg

US, Estonia to send confiscated Russian funds to Ukraine. Are ransomware proceeds next?  Estonia and the U.S. have agreed to transfer $500,000 in confiscated Russian funds to Ukraine to aid in rebuilding its electrical grid following Russian bombings. This move signifies the U.S.'s first utilization of a foreign ally to channel aid to Ukraine. It's part of a broader strategy targeting oligarchs and supporters of Russia's war efforts, with the establishment of a task force, KleptoCapture, by the Justice Department in 2022. The task force aims to enforce economic measures imposed on Russia post-invasion, emphasizing accountability for those aiding Russia's war efforts.  The Record 

Russia-aligned hackers target European and Iranian embassies in new espionage campaign. A Russia-linked hacking group, known as TAG-70, utilized a cross-site scripting vulnerability in the Roundcube webmail server to conduct espionage campaigns targeting government and military agencies in Europe, as well as Iranian embassies in Russia. The goal of the hacking group's campaign was to gather intelligence on European political and military activities, potentially to gain strategic advantages or undermine European security and alliances. The targets of hacks were mostly located in Ukraine, Poland, and Georgia with additional attacks on Iranian embassies in Russia and the Netherlands. The hackers involved in the attacks overlap with members of the Russian Winter Vivern group. Winter Vivern has been active since at least December 2020 and likely conducts cyber-espionage campaigns to serve the interests of Belarus and Russia across Ukraine and Europe. The Record

Former NSA chief calls for alternative approach to cyberdefense.  Michael Rogers, former director of the U.S. National Security Agency told attendees of the Munich Security Conference that it’s time to change how nations think about cyber security, and continuing with the same approach while expecting a different result is a “low probability for success”.  Among the changes Rogers is advocating for is a shift from “effort” to performance” where the focus is less on how much was spent, or how long the problem was worked on, but rather the outcomes that were achieved.   The Record

Cyber norms serving their purpose despite ongoing attacks, says U.S. official.  Liesyl Franz, the deputy assistant secretary at the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy said at the Munich Security Conference that the 11 cyber norms, agreed to by all UN members in 2021 are working.  Franz says that “The norms provide a very articulate foundation for the kinds of behavior that we can expect. So when there is activity that we see from whomever — from states or from within states’ territories — that contravenes the norms, then we can use that as a foundation to call it out, to hold those states accountable for what they’re doing or not doing.”  The Record 

China spy agency renews foreign cyber intelligence warning after data breaches.  China's Ministry of State Security has issued a warning regarding foreign cyber espionage, emphasizing the threat it poses to the country's information and network security. The ministry highlighted recent attacks by overseas cyber spies on critical Chinese departments and companies, exploiting security vulnerabilities and negligence to steal sensitive data. One case cited involved a military-civilian integration enterprise failing to update its software promptly, leading to a breach that compromised production data and customer information, posing risks to military and technological security. The agency also outlined how hackers target large state-owned enterprises and vulnerable software supply chain companies, urging increased vigilance and security measures to safeguard against cyber threats. SCMP

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, Ryan Simons, and Tiffany Krueger contributed to this report.

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