Report for Monday, February 17, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Monday, February 17, 2025

Trump team will start peace talks in Saudi Arabia with Russia, but not Ukraine or Europe

France's Macron hosts emergency European summit on Ukraine

A New Spy Unit Is Leading Russia’s Shadow War Against the West

Netanyahu says Israel will ‘finish the job’ against Iran, with Trump’s support

China is rapidly gaining ground in new “cold war” over tech with U.S

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

DISPATCHES FROM MUNICH with General David Petraeus – “I can't imagine that Ukraine could agree to anything that did not include a robust security guarantee. The question is what could be in it, beyond a military response. Could it include, for example, automatic seizure of the $300 billion of Russian assets sitting in European banks? Could it include an automatic path to NATO membership for Ukraine? All of this in addition to whatever military action might be taken by a coalition of the willing. In an ideal world, it would be a NATO operation led by an American three-star, with a core headquarters that is then built into a NATO coalition headquarters with lots of European and U.S. assets in place to provide the response.” – Cipher Brief Expert and retired four-star Commander General David Petraeus in an exclusive interview on The Cipher Brief’s YouTube Channel.

DISPATCHES FROM MUNICH with Bill Browder - “It's kind of been a wake-up call that if the U.S. is going to cut off military aid for Ukraine to try to force effectively, a surrender, then Ukraine is going to have to figure out how to survive without U.S. money. And one of the big themes, one of the themes that I've been talking about here at the Munich Security Conference is the frozen Russian assets. There's currently $300 billion of frozen Russian assets, most of which are held in the European Union. And that could easily be a solution to the problem. There's no need for America to continue funding Ukraine because Putin can fund Ukraine and he can do so through the assets that hopefully they confiscate, that the Europeans confiscate from Russia.” – Bill Browder, CEO, Hermitage Capital Management speaking to Cipher Brief COO Brad Christian from Munich exclusively on The Cipher Brief’s YouTube Channel.

The US, Europe and a Ukraine-Russia peace deal. Gen. Philip Breedlove and Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges discuss the Ukraine war, NATO’s role, and negotiations with Russia. While Ukraine’s NATO membership is unlikely in the near term, they argue that delaying it indefinitely would only serve Russian interests. Both emphasize that Ukraine’s sovereignty, including Crimea, must be upheld, and any peace deal should not legitimize Russian territorial gains. They push back against calls for Europe to “own” the war, noting that while European nations must expand their defense efforts, U.S. involvement remains critical to deterring Russia. Looking ahead, they stress that a credible international security force will be needed to enforce any agreement, as Putin will not respect a deal without a visible deterrent. With Russia’s military struggling and economic pressures mounting, both leaders see an opportunity for Ukraine to hold its ground. However, they caution against rushed negotiations, warning that a weak settlement—like the failed Minsk agreements—could embolden Russia further. They insist that Putin must be held accountable for his illegal and inhumane war, and that the West must ensure any resolution strengthens, rather than weakens, global security.  The Cipher Brief 

The Art of Negotiating with Putin. “Putin will be aware of President Trump’s reputed unwillingness to prepare by listening to the expertise of members of his team,” writes the former Chief of CIA’s Central Eurasia Division Rob Dannenberg exclusively in The Cipher Brief. “But Putin’s own training as a KGB officer will have embedded in him the importance of that preparation and attention to detail. Patience, not haste, is a key attribute of a successful operations officer. Putin will use his experience and training to manipulate the U.S. President (and perhaps already has).” Read more in ‘The Art of Negotiating with Vladimir Putin’, exclusively in The Cipher Brief 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump team will start peace talks in Saudi Arabia with Russia, but not Ukraine or Europe. Trump administration officials, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, are set to meet with Russian representatives in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to discuss ending Russia’s war on Ukraine. “We’re moving along,” President Donald Trump told reporters in Florida on Sunday of the coming talks. “We’re trying to get peace with Russia, Ukraine, and we’re working very hard on it.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who met with U.S. Vice President JD Vance in Germany on Friday, said Ukraine was not invited and believes Russia is not serious about negotiations. European nations were also excluded. President Donald Trump said Sunday he could meet “very soon” with Russian President Vladimir Putin. At the Munich Security Conference, European officials insisted any peace deal must secure Ukraine’s sovereignty amid concerns that the talks could serve Moscow’s interest. Politico EU CNN Reuters Kyiv Independent CNBC Kyiv Independent New York Times RFE/RL Reuters Reuters Reuters Axios Wall Street Journal

Trump Says Zelensky to Take Part in Peace Talks with Russia. President Donald Trump said that Ukraine will be involved in peace talks to end Russia’s war. “He will be involved, yes,” Trump said Sunday in Florida. Trump, who spoke with Vladimir Putin last week, said Sunday that the Russian leader “wants peace” and dismissed fears he aims to take all of Ukraine. “That would have caused me a big problem, because you just can’t let that happen. I think he wants to end it,” Trump said. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also said Sunday that Ukraine and Europe would be part of any “real negotiations” to end Russia’s war, downplaying concerns that initial U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week would sideline them. “Ultimately, if it’s real negotiations… Ukraine will have to be involved because they were invaded, and the Europeans will have to be involved because they have sanctions,” Rubio told CBS, but cautioned, “We’re just not there yet.” Rubio’s remarks came after Trump’s envoy, Keith Kellogg, excluded European participation because of the failure of the Minsk agreements a decade ago to end the war. Skepticism remains. Asked in Munich on Saturday whether the Trump administration understood the stakes, President Volodymyr Zelensky said: “I will be honest. We have to work on it…There are a lot of different voices around the new American administration, and I am not sure that all these voices are on our side.” The Trump administration has told European officials that it wants to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine by Easter, Bloomberg reported, citing people briefed on the conversations.  Wall Street Journal Reuters Reuters ITV News Bloomberg

Rubio speaks with Lavrov ahead of US-Russia talks this week. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Saturday, ahead of planned U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia. Rubio reaffirmed President Donald Trump’s commitment to ending the war in Ukraine and discussed other potential areas of bilateral cooperation. Russia’s foreign ministry stated that Lavrov and Rubio agreed to establish a direct communication channel to address U.S.-Russia relations and to lay the groundwork for a meeting between President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin. They also discussed lifting mutual diplomatic restrictions and resuming trade and investment cooperation, indicating that the US may roll back sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. Financial Times

France's Macron hosts emergency European summit on Ukraine. European leaders convened an emergency summit in Paris on Monday, hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron, to respond to concerns that the U.S. is advancing peace talks with Russia without European involvement. The summit follows U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg’s remarks that European leaders will be excluded from negotiations, arguing past peace efforts like the Minsk agreements failed due to excessive participants. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer will attend, emphasizing the need to unite U.S. and European efforts. "Europe urgently needs its own plan of action concerning Ukraine and our security, or else other global players will decide about our future. Not necessarily in line with our own interest," said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who will also attend. "This plan must be prepared now. There's no time to lose." The meeting will also include German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and the European Union’s Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa. Several EU leaders said the decision to omit a majority of member states from a hastily arranged summit in Paris risks sending the wrong signal about the bloc’s unity. BBC The Telegraph Euractiv Reuters Reuters Financial Times Reuters New York Times Bloomberg

US asks Europeans what they need for Ukraine security guarantees. The U.S. has asked European allies what they need from Washington to participate in security arrangements for Ukraine, according to a document seen by Reuters. The six-point inquiry asks what U.S. support—both short-term and long-term—would be required for European countries to contribute, including troop deployments as part of a future peace settlement. One question asks: “What, if any, U.S. support requirements would your government consider necessary for its participation in these security arrangements?” The State Department questionnaire sent to European capitals seeks details on available military hardware, the number of troop brigades they could deploy, and broader security arrangements they are willing to support. The document also probes European willingness to enforce stricter sanctions on Russia. This request comes as European leaders push for involvement in President Donald Trump’s negotiations with President Vladimir Putin. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stressed that Europe must first organize itself before demanding a role in talks. “I hear European countries complaining that they did not immediately have a place at the [negotiation] table,” Rutte said. “My argument is, first get yourself organized together, debate, and . . . think about what the European contribution could be.” Reuters Financial Times

Ukraine rejects initial Trump proposal for half its mineral wealth. Ukraine rejected the Trump administration’s demand for 50% control of its mineral wealth, primarily due to the lack of security guarantees in the U.S. proposal. President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted that any deal must include binding assurances for Ukraine’s defense. “We can consider how to distribute profits when security guarantees are clear,” Zelensky said. The proposal, brought by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, was delivered only hours before a meeting in Kyiv, with pressure for immediate approval. Ukrainian officials balked at the demand, likening it to colonial exploitation. President Donald Trump has framed the deal as economic compensation for U.S. aid. Concerns also arose over dispute resolution and the lack of enforceable terms. Ukraine aims to secure a fairer agreement that aligns with its long-term security and economic interests. Zelensky’s rejection of the proposal prompted a rebuke from National Security Adviser Waltz, who said the Ukrainian leader would be “very wise” to accept the deal. “The American people deserve to be recouped, deserve to have some kind of payback for the billions they have invested in this war,” Waltz told Fox News on Sunday. Negotiations are ongoing, including over the fate of Ukrainian resources in Russian-occupied parts of the nation. Washington Post  Financial Times  Politico EU Reuters NBC News New York Times Associated Press New York Times Reuters

Zelensky, in UAE, discusses bringing back Ukrainians from Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky met United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Dubai on Monday to discuss the return of Ukrainians from Russian captivity, particularly children. The UAE has played a key role in enabling these returns. Zelensky emphasized that securing more releases remains his top priority. Sheikh Mohammed reiterated the UAE’s support for a peaceful resolution to the war. Reuters

EU foreign policy chief says a Russia-Ukraine peace deal wouldn’t work without Europe. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned Saturday that a Russia-Ukraine peace deal would fail without European participation. “For anything to work, it has to have Ukrainians and Europeans as a part of it because Ukrainians and Europeans are the ones who need to also implement the deal here in Europe,” Kallas said. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz concurred. “There will only be peace if Ukraine’s sovereignty is secured,” he said. “A dictated peace will, therefore, never find our support.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said: "Ukraine will never accept deals made behind our backs without our involvement. And the same rule should apply to all of Europe.” CNBC Euractiv Al Jazeera Reuters

Europe quietly works on a plan to send troops to Ukraine for post-war security. A group of European nations, led by Britain and France, is quietly working on a plan to deploy troops to Ukraine to enforce a future peace settlement with Russia. The effort, which has gained urgency as U.S. priorities shift, aims to provide security guarantees for Ukraine instead of NATO membership. Discussions have been ongoing for a year, but details remain scarce. The proposed force would need to be robust, with former U.S. Army Europe commander Ben Hodges warning that weak peacekeeping troops would be ineffective against Russia’s history of violating agreements. Ukraine insists on a force of at least 100,000 troops, but European nations may struggle to assemble such numbers. Ukrainian officials argue that any security guarantee without direct U.S. involvement would be insufficient. Associated Press

UK’s Starmer offers to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Sunday he was prepared to send British troops to Ukraine as part of a postwar peacekeeping force, becoming the first European leader to take such a stp. emphasizing. Writing in the Daily Telegraph, he said did not take the decision to put British servicemen and women "in harm's way" lightly. But he said that securing a lasting peace in Ukraine was essential to deterring Russian President Vladimir Putin from further aggression. Earlier, Former British Army chief Lord Dannatt said that the UK military is too "run down" to lead a potential Ukraine peacekeeping mission, which could require up to 100,000 troops. He estimated the UK’s share would be around 40,000, which Britain cannot now supply due to personnel and equipment shortages. Reuters BBC Deutsche Welle 

Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson says deploying peacekeepers to post-war Ukraine 'a possibility.’ Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson on Monday stated that his country would consider contributing to post-war peacekeeping forces in Ukraine, though further negotiations are needed before a decision is made. His comments follow British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s announcement that the U.K. is prepared to send troops for peacekeeping duties, emphasizing Europe’s role in post-war discussions. Kristersson noted that Sweden is typically involved in security efforts and expects to participate but stressed the need for a clear mandate before committing. Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard added that a just and sustainable peace, respecting international law, must be established first before peacekeeping efforts can be organized. Reuters France 24 

Trump Open to Europe Buying US-Made Arms for Ukraine. President Donald Trump said Sunday he’s open to Europe purchasing US-made weapons for Ukraine, potentially allowing Kyiv to continue receiving American arms even as the US withdraws direct military support. Trump is pushing for a negotiated end to Russia’s war on Ukraine, which could formalize some Russian land gains. He also seeks increased European defense spending, including arms purchases. Trump confirmed Sunday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be involved in future peace talks but gave no specifics. His administration has urged allies to buy US weapons and energy to maintain NATO and reshape transatlantic security dynamics. Bloomberg

Trump team makes a confused start to Ukraine diplomacy. The Trump administration's first moves on Ukraine diplomacy confused allies as top officials issued conflicting statements. President Donald Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week, pushing for negotiations and suggesting a summit with Putin in Saudi Arabia. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Ukraine's NATO membership was unrealistic and regaining its 2014 borders was "illusionary," remarks later softened to say "everything is on the table." Vice President JD Vance added to the uncertainty by suggesting U.S. troops could pressure Moscow, then walked it back. "As we've always said, American troops should never be put into harm's way where it doesn't advance American interests and security,” Vance said. “This war is between Russia and Ukraine.” European allies criticized what they saw as premature concessions to Putin. Despite the contradictions, Ambassador Daniel Fried said the approach could yield a "good outcome" if it secured a ceasefire, kept 80% of Ukraine free, and provided security guarantees preventing a renewed Russian attack. Reuters BBC Kyiv Independent

Republicans struggle with a unified response to Trump’s plan for Ukraine peace talks. Republican lawmakers are struggling to present a unified response to President Donald Trump’s approach to Ukraine peace talks, with reactions ranging from alarm to cautious support. Trump’s discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his stance against Ukraine’s NATO membership have drawn criticism, particularly from Senator Roger Wicker, a Mississippi Republican, who called the administration’s demands “disturbing.” Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance avoided mentioning Ukraine in a Munich speech. European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, condemned Trump’s position, while Senator Lindsey Graham defended his mineral-for-aid proposal and pushed for further arming Ukraine. Politico

ANALYSIS–Russia is relishing a series of contradictory White House messages on Ukraine. Russia is exploiting the Trump administration’s disjointed Ukraine policy, seizing on mixed signals from Washington to advance its goals. The Kremlin benefits from U.S. officials contradicting each other—Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth dismissing Ukraine’s NATO hopes and pre-2014 borders as unrealistic, while Vice President JD Vance suggests military pressure on Moscow remains an option. President Donald Trump’s vague rhetoric on peace talks further fuels uncertainty. By amplifying these contradictions, Moscow sows’ division among Ukraine’s allies and erodes confidence in U.S. leadership. Russian state media portrays the chaos as evidence of waning Western resolve, reinforcing narratives that Ukraine is being abandoned. Meanwhile, Trump’s direct engagement with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his limited contact with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggests Russia is shaping negotiations on its terms. The longer the U.S. remains uncertain, the more Russia stands to gain. CNN

ANALYSIS–Europeans Fear Trump Is Giving Up Leverage to Putin Even Before Talks Begin. European leaders are alarmed by the Trump administration’s contradictory and disorganized approach to Ukraine, fearing a policy of appeasement toward Russian President Vladimir Putin. At the Munich Security Conference, European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas openly called it “appeasement,” a term echoed privately by other diplomats. European officials were blindsided by President Donald Trump’s direct negotiations with Putin, which excluded Ukraine and suggested Kyiv would have to cede territory. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s comments that Ukraine should accept territorial losses, followed by his later backtracking, deepened concerns. Vice President JD Vance sidestepped Ukraine in a key speech, confusing allies about U.S. intentions. European leaders see a need to assert their role in Ukraine’s security, fearing that Trump is giving up leverage before talks even begin. Germany, France, and Britain are discussing a counterproposal as frustration mounts over Washington’s lack of a coherent, strategic vision. New York Times The Telegraph

Zelensky calls for the creation of a European army and says Ukraine needs a 1.5 million force. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky used his Munich Security Conference speech on Saturday to push for stronger European defense cooperation and Ukraine’s long-term security. He called for a joint "army of Europe," arguing that Europe must be able to defend itself independently of the U.S., given shifting transatlantic relations under President Donald Trump. He stressed that Europe should act as a unified bloc with a common foreign policy to ensure that external powers don’t dictate its security. Separately, Zelensky said that if Ukraine is not granted NATO membership, it will need an army of 1.5 million soldiers to deter future Russian aggression. He emphasized that this force would require Western support, warning that Moscow would seek to regroup and attack again without a credible deterrent. He highlighted Ukraine’s force disparity with Russia and said that parity in troop numbers is necessary to prevent another invasion. Associated Press CNN CBS News BBC Voice of America CNBC Sky News Bloomberg Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent

Europe needs a special Ukraine envoy, leaders say after US rebuff. European leaders called for a special envoy for Ukraine to secure a meaningful role in peace talks after U.S. President Donald Trump's administration ruled out Europe’s participation. Finnish President Alexander Stubb suggested a Kosovo-style diplomatic approach, with a respected figure leading the negotiations. Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic emphasized the need for a strong figure to oversee peace talks. Trump’s direct call with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his administration’s dismissive stance on Europe’s role have unsettled European allies. Reuters

Zelensky: 'Very difficult' for Ukraine to survive without U.S. military support and guarantees. President Volodymyr Zelensky told NBC’s Meet the Press that Ukraine’s survival without U.S. military aid would be “very, very, very difficult.” He warned that without American support, Ukraine would have a “low chance” to withstand Russia’s invasion. “I don’t want to think about” fighting Russia alone, he said. Zelensky also dismissed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s push for ceasefire talks, saying Moscow seeks only to “pause, prepare, train, take off some sanctions.” He urged the U.S. to remain a strategic partner, emphasizing that President Donald Trump “is a strong man” who could pressure Putin to stop the war. A 40-minute meeting on Friday between Zelensky and U.S. Vice President JD Vance produced no breakthrough at the Munich Security Conference. “We want peace very much,” Zelensky said. “But we need real security guarantees.” Vance, for his part, said the Trump administration is committed to finding a lasting peace between Ukraine and Russia. NBC News Reuters Associated Press

Ukrainians Fear Peace May Strand Them Forever from Lost Homes. Many Ukrainians displaced by Russia’s invasion fear that peace negotiations, as signaled by President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, may permanently cede occupied territories. Trump’s statements that Ukraine is unlikely to regain its pre-2014 borders and won’t join NATO have deepened concerns. Olena Matvienko, whose home in Mariupol was destroyed, likened the loss to “ripping off a man’s arm.” Journalist Anna Murlykina called the U.S. shift “a chain of humiliation.” Some Ukrainians remain in occupied areas, struggling to survive, while families are divided—some adapting to Russian rule, others resisting. Russian civilians are already settling in occupied cities, further complicating the prospect of reclaiming lost homes. New York Times

Russia’s Advance in Ukraine Is Slowing. Russia’s advance in Ukraine has slowed, coinciding with President Donald Trump’s push for peace talks. While Russian forces continue pressing forward, heavy losses and Ukraine’s resistance limit their gains. In early 2025, it took Russia nearly six days to seize an area the size of Manhattan—more than twice as long as in November. Recent territorial gains, including Kurakhove and Selydove, have come at a high cost, with mounting Russian casualties. Ukraine is countering with drones and strategic defenses, particularly near Pokrovsk, a key supply route. Russia’s push to clear Ukrainian forces from its Kursk province is ongoing, with North Korean troops reinforcing Russian units. However, Russia’s long-term ability to sustain assaults is in question, as it has lost nearly half of its Soviet-era tanks and is increasingly relying on unprotected infantry. Analysts warn that by late 2025, Russia’s armor shortages could become critical, though North Korea may help replenish supplies. Meanwhile, Russia said Saturday its forces had captured the village of Berezivka in their latest breakthrough in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region. Wall Street Journal Associated Press

Russian troops sharply stepped up attacks on Ukrainian forces on Saturday. Russian forces intensified attacks in eastern Ukraine on Saturday, focusing on Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub. The Ukrainian military reported 261 clashes in 24 hours, more than double the previous day. Russian troops are advancing from multiple directions, aiming to cut Ukrainian supply lines as they push through the Donetsk region. Reuters

High Above Chernobyl, Workers Grapple with Ice, Fire and Nuclear Fears. A Russian drone strike on Friday punctured the protective shell covering Reactor No. 4 at Chernobyl, creating a 540-square-foot hole and igniting insulation. Five technicians worked in freezing conditions to extinguish lingering fires while emergency crews assessed the damage. Ukrainian officials condemned the attack as one of the most dangerous since Russia’s full-scale invasion, though radiation levels remained normal. The Kremlin denied responsibility. Greenpeace nuclear expert Shaun Burnie remarked, “It was never designed for a deliberate military attack.” The attack coincided with the Munich Security Conference, where President Volodymyr Zelensky called for greater international support to safeguard Ukraine’s nuclear sites. Repairs to the $1.7 billion New Safe Confinement structure, completed in 2019, could take months. Experts warn that continued attacks on nuclear plants pose serious global risks. The damaged shell was designed to contain radioactive materials from the 1986 disaster. Authorities are working on a temporary seal while planning permanent repairs. New York Times Reuters

China calls for all stakeholders in Ukraine war to be in peace process. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized that all stakeholders, including Europe, should participate in peace talks on Ukraine. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, he stressed Europe’s role in addressing the war’s root causes and ensuring long-term stability. China welcomed U.S.-Russia negotiations but warned against excluding Ukraine. President Donald Trump’s calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky caught European allies off guard, prompting warnings against a deal made without Kyiv’s involvement. Meanwhile, Ukraine rejected a China-Brazil peace plan as favoring Moscow. Reuters

NATO is at odds with Ukraine over battlefield tactics in war with Russia. NATO is clashing with Ukraine over battlefield tactics, with British defense sources accusing Kyiv’s forces of misusing expensive Western weapons. Ukrainian troops reportedly fire expensive UK-supplied NLAW missiles as if they were cheap rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), squandering costly precision arms. British trainers say Ukrainian soldiers often ignore NATO doctrine, abandoning reusable Javelin launch units, which have fallen into Russian hands. Some Ukrainian officers argue Western methods don’t fit frontline conditions. Corruption is another concern, with missing equipment and stripped-down vehicles. After the collapse of Ukraine’s 155th Brigade, trained in France, skepticism about NATO’s training methods has grown. The Telegraph

Nordic and Baltic countries say they will boost support for Ukraine. The Nordic and Baltic countries gave renewed backing to Ukraine's fight against Russia, promising in a joint statement to further increase their support. "Ukraine must be able to prevail against Russia's war of aggression to ensure a just and lasting peace," the leaders of Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden said Friday. "The outcome of the war will have fundamental and long-lasting effects on European and transatlantic security.” Reuters

Merz: Berlin is ready to supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine after elections. Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union and frontrunner for chancellor, stated he would change Berlin’s stance on supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine after the election. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Merz reaffirmed his support for increased military aid but conditioned deliveries on coordination with European partners. Merz excluded the U.S. from these discussions, emphasizing a unified European approach. His position contrasts with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has resisted supplying Taurus missiles. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expects a shift in German policy should Merz take office. Ukrainska Pravda

Ammunition initiative for Ukraine to continue, Czech president says. A Czech-led initiative has delivered 1.6 million large-caliber shells to Ukraine over the past year and will continue supplying ammunition, Czech President Petr Pavel announced at the Munich Security Conference. Funding has been secured until April, with discussions ongoing for further support. Pavel emphasized that backing Ukraine remains essential until a peace agreement exists. The initiative, leveraging Czech diplomatic and industrial expertise, sources ammunition globally with NATO funding. Last year, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala confirmed a target of 500,000 shells by the end of 2024, specifically for 155mm artillery. Reuters

German drone manufacturer will double its production capacity in Ukraine in 2025. German drone manufacturer Quantum Systems, backed by billionaire Peter Thiel, plans to double its production capacity in Ukraine in 2025 – to at least 2,000 unmanned aerial vehicles. The company, which has supplied Kyiv with drones since Russia’s full-scale invasion, aims to enhance Ukraine’s reconnaissance and surveillance capabilities. Quantum’s Vector drone, used for target identification, can fly for 180 minutes and stream real-time video over 35 kilometers. The company also produces mapping drones like the Trinity Pro. Ukraine has ordered hundreds of these systems as it expands domestic drone production. President Volodymyr Zelensky recently established a separate military branch dedicated to uncrewed systems. Business Insider

Ukraine opens criminal cases against ex-President Poroshenko, sanctioned oligarchs. Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office has opened criminal cases against former President Petro Poroshenko and several sanctioned oligarchs and businessmen, including Ihor Kolomoisky, Viktor Medvedchuk, Konstantin Zhevago, and Hennadiy Boholyubov. Poroshenko, charged with high treason in 2021, is accused of profiting from coal deals with Russian-backed separatists. Medvedchuk faces treason charges for allegedly aiding Russia’s seizure of Black Sea energy resources and passing military intelligence. Kolomoisky is under investigation for embezzling $129 million and laundering $99 million. Zhevago is suspected of misappropriating $113 million through offshore transfers, while Boholyubov is accused of organizing illegal border crossings. The sanctions freeze assets and indefinitely restrict financial transactions for all individuals involved. Poroshenko called the sanctions politically motivated, while Ukrainian authorities stressed the cases as part of a broader crackdown on corruption and pro-Russian networks amid wartime pressures. Kyiv Independent

Trump threatens to revoke status unsettle Ohio’s Ukrainians: ‘The stress is real.’ Thousands of Ukrainians in Cleveland face uncertainty as the Trump administration reviews Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and the Uniting for Ukraine (U4U) program, which have allowed them to live and work legally in the U.S. Many, like Mykola Vashchuk, fled war-torn Ukraine and rebuilt their lives, but now fear deportation. Cleveland has been a hub for Ukrainian immigrants for over a century, with a vibrant community in Parma. The uncertainty has caused panic, with some fearing abrupt program termination. Tetiana, whose husband serves in Ukraine, worries about her son’s future, saying, “I’m worried about my son’s life.” The Guardian

Russia strikes hit Ukraine power plant on Sunday, leaving residents in freezing cold. A Russian drone strike damaged a thermal power plant in Mykolaiv overnight on Sunday, cutting heat for 100,000 people amid freezing temperatures. Ukraine accused Russia of attempting to create a humanitarian catastrophe. Ukraine shot down 95 of 143 drones launched, with electromagnetic countermeasures likely disrupting others. Reuters Kyiv Independent

Four killed in Ukrainian drone attacks in Russia's Belgorod region on Sunday. Ukrainian drone attacks killed four people in two incidents in Russia's Belgorod border region on Sunday, the regional governor said. Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said a woman died on the spot in an attack near the border, southeast of the regional administrative center of Belgorod. Three men were killed later in a similar attack further east, also near the border. All four were traveling in cars. Reuters

Russia says it has taken Fyholivka village in Ukraine' Kharkiv region. Russia's Defense Ministry said on Monday that its forces had taken Fyholivka in Ukraine's eastern Kharkiv region. Reuters

Russia launches 147 drones during overnight attack on Monday. Russian drone attacks on Ukraine damaged storage facilities and private residences after Russia launched 147 drones to attack the country overnight, Ukrainian military and officials said on Monday. Out of 147, Ukraine's air force shot down 83 drones and 59 more did not reach their targets likely due to electronic countermeasures. Reuters

Ukraine strikes Ilsky Oil Refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai, SBU source says. Ukrainian drones struck the Ilsky Oil Refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai and the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station overnight on Monday, a Security Service of Ukraine source told the Kyiv Independent. The refinery, with a capacity of 6.6 million tons per year, caught fire, while the pumping station, a key part of Russia’s Caspian Pipeline Consortium, was taken out of operation. Ukraine views Russian oil infrastructure as a legitimate target, citing its role in funding Moscow’s war effort. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, Feb. 14-Sunday, Feb. 16. SUNDAY– US officials outlined their expectations for peace negotiations with Russia in Saudi Arabia, emphasizing trust-building and Russian territorial concessions, while China and Brazil called for global efforts to end the war. The Kremlin reiterated its false claim that Ukraine lacks sovereignty, laying the groundwork to challenge the legitimacy of any future agreements with Kyiv. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and exiled Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk pushed narratives undermining Ukraine’s legitimacy, suggesting Moscow may not negotiate in good faith. The Kremlin invited US President Donald Trump to Russia’s May 9 Victory Day parade, aiming to present Russian President Vladimir Putin as equal to Trump and reinforce Russia’s global status. Reports suggest the US may ease sanctions on Belarus, which could bolster Russia’s economy and aid its war effort. The Russian military redeployed units from the Southern Military District to reinforce operations near Toretsk and eastern Pokrovsk, focusing on Kostyantynivka. Russia is pursuing a long-term campaign to capture Ukraine's "fortress belt" in Donetsk Oblast, signaling Putin’s continued commitment to a prolonged war.

SATURDAY–Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Putin is trying to position himself as the victor over Trump in negotiations. The U.S. and European partners continue working to strengthen Ukraine’s defense industry with new agreements on weapons production and maintenance. Ukrainian drone operations and heavy Russian personnel losses are likely contributing to the slowdown of Russian advances near Pokrovsk. Russian cargo ships continue evacuating military assets from Syria as Moscow negotiates its future presence with the interim government. Russian occupation authorities are expanding programs to install war veterans in government positions, further integrating occupied territories into Russia’s administrative and military structures. 

FRIDAY–Zelensky and U.S. Vice President JD Vance met at the Munich Security Conference, where they reaffirmed U.S. support for Ukraine and discussed plans for a just and lasting peace. A Russian Shahed drone struck the protective structure of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, causing surface damage but not breaching the containment structure or raising radiation levels. Ukraine called for increased international efforts to prevent Russian strikes on nuclear sites. Zelensky warned that Russia may be planning a major offensive in northern Ukraine or against NATO’s eastern flank in 2026, citing troop buildups near Belarus.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Kurakhove, while Russian troops gained ground near Kupyansk, Siversk, Vovchansk, Lyman, Velyka Novosilka and Kursk Oblast. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War Saturday-Institute for the Study of War Friday-Institute for the Study of War

THE AMERICAS

Hegseth’s Bruising 72-Hour Debut Overseas. Pete Hegseth’s debut as defense secretary was marred by controversy after he dismissed Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders as an “unrealistic objective” and ruled out NATO membership for Kyiv during a meeting in Brussels. The remarks provoked a backlash from European allies and even fellow Republicans. Senator Roger Wicker, a Mississippi Republican, called it “a rookie mistake,” comparing the statement to something “Tucker Carlson could have written.” Hegseth later attempted to soften his stance, insisting there was “no betrayal” of Ukraine and arguing he was introducing “realism.” But his messaging shifted again in Warsaw, where he aligned himself with President Donald Trump’s approach to negotiations with Russia, reiterating that full territorial restoration for Ukraine was unlikely. The trip exposed Hegseth’s inexperience, with shifting statements reflecting broader confusion in Trump’s foreign policy team. His call for Europe to boost defense spending—saying “Uncle Sam won’t be Uncle Sucker”—was met with concerns the administration is retreating from NATO commitments. New York Times

ANALYSIS–Trump’s Ambition to Redraw the World Map Ignores Those Affected Most. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy emphasizes rapid, transactional deals with little consideration for local populations, drawing comparisons to past imperialist maneuvers. At the Munich Security Conference, Western allies worried that Ukrainians, Palestinians, and others could be sidelined. Trump’s push for an immediate Ukraine peace deal with Russia reflects his preference for top-down decision-making. His Gaza plan, proposing mass relocation of Palestinians, has drawn widespread rejection. Analysts warn his approach, reminiscent of colonial-era border redrawing, risks long-term instability. Trump’s strategy prioritizes material interests over ideology, starkly contrasting past U.S. diplomacy. New York Times

ANALYSIS–America’s military supremacy is in jeopardy. Slow adaptation to technological advances, political inertia, and an outdated procurement system threaten the U.S. military's dominance. While Ukraine’s battlefield has become a testing ground for AI-driven warfare, the Pentagon struggles to integrate similar innovations. Former Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley warns that America’s military is unfit for modern combat, requiring an overhaul in strategy, procurement, and supplier networks. The debate over reform is polarized. Some advocate preserving traditional military strength—troop numbers, missiles, and shipbuilding—while others, including Elon Musk, call for radical changes, dismissing legacy systems like manned jets and aircraft carriers in favor of drones and AI-driven weapons. A middle ground emphasizes a “high-low mix,” combining advanced weapons with cheaper, uncrewed systems. However, Pentagon bureaucracy and congressional politics stymie progress. Efforts to fast-track innovation, such as the “Replicator initiative” for mass drone production, remain mired in red tape. Without structural change, America risks falling behind, particularly in Asia. The Economist

Rapid warfare tech helps U.S. Army build on lessons learned in Ukraine's war. The U.S. Army is rapidly integrating battlefield lessons from Ukraine into its training, focusing on drone warfare and advanced technology. At a training exercise in Hohenfels, Germany, troops tested drones, hybrid-engine vehicles, and improved communication systems to enhance battlefield efficiency. Drone operators practiced semi-autonomous targeting, reducing the time needed for firing decisions from minutes to under two. Sgt. Maj. Michael Weimer emphasized the urgency of adapting to fast-changing warfare, drawing from Ukraine’s experience in drone-based surveillance and targeting. Analysts highlight the significance of Ukraine’s maritime drone tactics, which have disrupted Russia’s naval operations in the Black Sea. NBC News

Trump asks Supreme Court to let him fire head of whistleblower protection office. President Donald Trump asked the U.S Supreme Court to let him fire the head of the U.S. Office of Special Counsel, which protects government whistleblowers.  The administration’s filing, submitted Sunday, asks the high court to lift a temporary restraining order issued by a federal trial judge in Washington. That order prevented Hampton Dellinger from being removed from his position for 14 days. “This court should not allow lower courts to seize executive power by dictating to the president how long he must continue employing an agency head against his will,” acting Solicitor General Sarah Harris said in the Supreme Court filing. The administration had tried and failed to persuade the federal appeals court to lift the lower court’s order.  Under the Supreme Court’s normal procedures, Trump’s filing will go to Chief Justice John Roberts, who can either act on his own or refer the matter to the full court. Dellinger declined to comment on the filing.  In issuing the temporary restraining order on Wednesday, US District Judge Amy Berman Jackson said the firing “plainly” went against US law. Bloomberg

U.S. Energy Department rescinds widespread purge from nuclear security office. The Department of Energy said Sunday that President Donald Trump and Elon Musk wound up purging fewer than 50 workers from the National Nuclear Security Administration, which maintains the country's nuclear weapons arsenal. On Friday, Reuters reported, 325 workers from the NNSA were sent layoff notices.  Later the same day, some of those layoffs were rescinded, causing chaos in NNSA, which is responsible for securing dangerous nuclear materials, including in Ukraine. By Sunday, a DOE spokesperson said less than 50 were dismissed, all of them "probationary” employees who had “primarily administrative and clerical roles." Reuters reported that NNSA managers were called on Thursday evening and told to fire people but got emails Friday saying things had changed and not to fire all the workers.  Reuters   

Justice Department fires 20 immigration judges despite years-long court backlogs.  The Justice Department fired 20 immigration judges without explanation, a union official said Saturday. Matthew Biggs, president of the International Federation of Professional & Technical Engineers, said the administration dismissed 13 judges who hadn’t been sworn in and five assistant chief immigration judges. There are about 700 immigration judges working for the Justice Department’s Executive Office for Immigration Review.  Immigration courts are backlogged with more than 3.7 million cases, according to Syracuse University’s Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse, the Associated Press reported.  Associated Press Politico The Guardian 

EUROPE

EU Seeks a Military Revival Under Pressure from Putin, Trump. European leaders are preparing a major defense spending package as President Donald Trump pushes for a rapid resolution to Russia’s war on Ukraine. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock described the initiative as unprecedented: “We will launch a large package that has never been seen in this dimension before.” Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene emphasized urgency, saying, “We need to spend on defense fast, and a lot, hundreds of billions need to be spent immediately.” European officials are increasingly aware that US support is waning, with Trump’s administration making clear that Europe must take charge of its own security. France is leading talks on military training, weapons deliveries, and potential European-led peacekeeping forces in Ukraine. The looming Feb. 23 German election has delayed public announcements, but EU leaders aim to finalize plans by March. The pressure is mounting as Trump moves forward with negotiations that could leave Ukraine vulnerable without immediate European military backing. Bloomberg

ANALYSIS–Trump Team Leaves Behind an Alliance in Crisis. European leaders left the weekend Munich Security Conference alarmed by the Trump administration’s shifting priorities, as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signaled impending US troop withdrawals from Europe and a reduced role in NATO. Vice President JD Vance and other officials sent mixed messages, while President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected a US proposal for a 50% stake in Ukraine’s mineral resources because it contained no security guarantees. Concerns grew that President Donald Trump could negotiate terms with Russian President Vladimir Putin that might legitimize Russia’s territorial claims in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Trump’s outreach to far-right European parties and a potential visit to Moscow for Victory Day reinforced fears of appeasement. European officials warned that a US retreat from European defense could force them to bolster security independently, signaling a historic rift in the transatlantic alliance. Norbert Röttgen, a member of Germany’s Parliament, said it is time for Europeans to recognize that the world has changed. “This is a new reality, a break with traditional European American policy that security in Europe is a genuine U.S. national interest,” he said. “But this administration does not consider it a primary U.S. interest, and this is a fundamental shift.” New York Times

Putin Has Long Wanted More Power in Europe. Trump Could Grant It. European leaders fear that the Trump administration is aligning with Russia at their expense, with Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signaling a retreat from NATO commitments. At the Munich Security Conference, Vance argued that Europe should embrace its far-right movements and warned that “if you’re running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you.” Analyst Nathalie Tocci called his remarks a direct threat, warning, “The point is not even Ukraine... it’s the deliberate weakening, if not destruction, of Europe.” Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has long sought to reshape European security in Moscow’s favor, may now find an ally in President Donald Trump. The Kremlin has benefited from Trump’s policies, including weakening U.S. foreign aid and fostering European disunity. “This is the moment in which we are at our most vulnerable,” Tocci said, as Europe faces right-wing populist threats while Trump and Putin seem aligned against the European Union. New York Times CNN

ANALYSIS–Who will defend Europe? Europe faces mounting security threats as Russia escalates its military preparations while the U.S., under President Donald Trump, signals disengagement from NATO. At the Munich Security Conference, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned, “We must prepare for war.” Trump’s talks with President Vladimir Putin and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s assertion that Ukraine’s territorial integrity is “illusory” have raised fears of a deal favoring Moscow. Europe remains militarily unprepared, relying on outdated assumptions of U.S. protection. Analysts warn that, without urgent rearmament, Russia could exploit NATO divisions and escalate hostilities, with Poland and frontline states already fortifying defenses.  European leaders face their biggest security challenge since World War II.  Can they meet it by increasing military spending and forging a political alliance without the assumption that the U.S. will always have their backs? If they can’t, former German defense official Nico Lange said: “After 10 years of wake-up calls, the next wake-up call for the Europeans may be an air raid siren.” Financial Times Politico EU  Wall Street Journal

A New Spy Unit Is Leading Russia’s Shadow War Against the West. Western intelligence officials say Russia’s newly created Department of Special Tasks (SSD) is conducting sabotage, assassinations, and infiltration efforts against the West. Based in Moscow’s military intelligence headquarters, the SSD absorbed the notorious Unit 29155, responsible for past poisonings and bombings. It has attempted to assassinate arms executives, set incendiary devices on DHL planes, and infiltrate European institutions. NATO’s James Appathurai warns that Russia is acting as if in a full-scale conflict with the West, while Sen. Tom Cotton, an Arkansas Republican, urges the CIA to escalate covert actions. The SSD’s focus on Germany reflects Moscow’s view of it as NATO’s weak link. Wall Street Journal

Vance's attack on Europe overshadows Ukraine talks at security conference. U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s speech Friday at the Munich Security Conference derailed Ukraine-focused discussions by attacking Europe’s free speech policies and immigration controls, prompting Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius to call his remarks “unacceptable.” Vance met with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) leader ahead of the country’s Feb. 23 elections, challenging Germany’s bipartisan stance against the party. While Trump’s Wednesday call with Russian President Vladimir Putin had already unsettled European allies, Vance’s rhetoric deepened the divide, with one delegate noting the speech was met with “stunned silence.” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock warned against a “sham peace.” Reuters Reuters

German Chancellor Rebukes Vance for Supporting Party That Downplays Nazis. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz condemned U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s remarks at the Munich Security Conference, accusing him of interfering in Germany’s elections by backing the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). “A commitment to ‘never again’ is incompatible with support for the AfD,” Scholz declared Friday, referencing the party’s classification by German intelligence as a suspected extremist group. He blasted Vance for visiting the Dachau concentration camp only to meet AfD leader Alice Weidel hours later, calling it an affront to Germany’s historical responsibility. The AfD has been embroiled in Nazi-related scandals, with members convicted for using banned Nazi slogans and one lawmaker controversially downplaying SS crimes. Scholz warned that Germany would not tolerate external actors undermining its democratic consensus. His rebuke deepened the rift between Washington and Berlin, reinforcing fears that the Trump administration is aligning with nationalist forces and sidelining Europe in geopolitical decision-making. New York Times Bloomberg Washington Post

ANALYSIS–Trump Officials Attack a German Consensus on Nazis and Speech. Vice President JD Vance’s embrace of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) marks a radical departure from decades of U.S. policy, challenging Germany’s postwar democratic consensus. His speech in Munich, coupled with billionaire Elon Musk’s open endorsement of the AfD, suggests the Trump administration is not merely tolerating but actively encouraging the dismantling of political firewalls against the far right in Europe. German leaders see this as an attack on their foundational principle that extremism must be contained to prevent history from repeating itself. By framing Germany’s strict laws against hate speech as a greater threat than Russia or China, Vance is reshaping the transatlantic debate. Instead of rallying against external enemies, he is amplifying grievances about European governance, particularly around migration and free speech. This shift aligns the U.S. with Europe’s nationalist movements, many of which have ties to Moscow. The rupture raises a deeper question: is President Donald Trump’s America still the pillar of Western democracy, or is it becoming a force that destabilizes it? New York Times

German Election Spotlight Turns to Trump. The German election campaign took an unexpected turn as the Trump administration’s foreign policy moves at the Munich Security Conference overshadowed a deadly attack by an Afghan refugee in Munich. Vice President JD Vance’s speech urging Germany to include the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in government stunned attendees and fueled accusations of US interference. “The spirit of the Vance speech was hostility,” said Norbert Röttgen, a member of Germany’s Parliament. Chancellor Olaf Scholz and opposition leader Friedrich Merz pushed back, asserting Germany’s sovereignty and condemning the remarks. The controversy drew attention away from migration, previously the dominant issue, and positioned President Donald Trump as a central figure in the Feb. 23 election. While AfD welcomed Vance’s comments, mainstream parties used the moment to reaffirm their opposition to far-right extremism. Merz, leading in polls, sought to present himself as a counterbalance to Trump’s policies. With a significant share of undecided voters, the Trump team’s rhetoric could influence Germany’s political landscape in unpredictable ways. New York Times

German Campaign Sparks to Life with Testy Candidates Debate. Germany’s election campaign intensified Sunday as Olaf Scholz, Friedrich Merz, Alice Weidel, and Robert Habeck clashed in a heated televised debate on migration, the economy, and Ukraine. Merz, whose CDU/CSU leads in the polls, attacked Weidel for endorsing Björn Höcke, a far-right AfD politician classified as a “right-wing extremist” by Germany’s domestic intelligence. Höcke has been fined for using Nazi slogans, called Berlin’s Holocaust memorial a “monument of shame,” and advocated for a drastic reversal of Germany’s culture of remembrance. Scholz condemned Weidel’s economic plans as “hot air” and criticized her party’s anti-immigrant stance. A snap poll found Merz the debate’s strongest performer at 32%, ahead of Scholz at 25%. Weidel and Habeck trailed at 18% each. Despite the heated exchanges, only 10% of viewers said the debate changed their voting intention. The election is Sunday, with the far-right AfD polling second at around 20%. Bloomberg

JD Vance emboldens pro-Putin Romanian presidential candidate. Vice President JD Vance’s criticism of Romania’s annulment of a presidential election over alleged Russian interference has bolstered pro-Vladimir Putin candidate Călin Georgescu. Vance dismissed the decision as “flimsy suspicions,” arguing that if foreign ads could sway a democracy, “it wasn’t very strong to begin with.” Georgescu, who won the first round before the court intervened, seized on Vance’s remarks to accuse authorities of undermining democracy. With Romania set to re-run the vote in May, analysts say Vance’s comments increase pressure on the Constitutional Court deciding whether Georgescu is allowed to run. Financial Times

A Quick, Quiet Trip to Belarus Signals a Turn in U.S. Policy. A senior U.S. diplomat, Christopher Smith, quietly traveled to Belarus on Friday, marking the first high-level U.S. visit to Minsk in five years. Smith, a deputy assistant secretary of state, met with President Alexander Lukashenko and top security officials, including the head of Belarus’s KGB. The visit, which followed President Donald Trump’s phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, signaled a potential thaw in relations between Washington and Minsk after years of U.S. efforts to isolate Belarus over its repression and close ties to Russia. During the visit, Smith secured the release of an American and two Belarusian political prisoners, calling it a “huge win” for Trump’s foreign policy. Talks also reportedly explored a broader deal: Lukashenko freeing more political detainees in exchange for U.S. sanctions relief on Belarusian banks and potash exports. The trip suggests a U.S. strategy shift—either to create leverage against Russia or to loosen Lukashenko’s reliance on Moscow, though Belarus remains deeply tied to Russian support. New York Times

Even in Death, Navalny Is Seen by the Kremlin as an Enduring Threat. Aleksei Navalny, Russia’s most prominent opposition leader, died in prison under suspicious circumstances in February 2024, but the Kremlin remains fixated on suppressing his legacy. Navalny, known for exposing corruption at the highest levels, organized mass protests and challenged Vladimir Putin’s rule, surviving a 2020 poisoning widely attributed to Russian agents. His team and Western governments suspect Navalny was deliberately killed to silence him ahead of Russia’s 2024 elections. His Anti-Corruption Fund, which documented state graft, was banned as “extremist” in 2021, forcing many allies into exile. Despite Navalny’s death, Russian authorities continue prosecuting those linked to him. Konstantin Kotov, an activist, was arrested six months later for donations made years prior. Heart surgeon Ivan Tishchenko received a four-year prison sentence for sending small amounts of money to Navalny’s organization. Journalists who covered his trials have also been jailed. The continued repression highlights the Kremlin’s fear that Navalny’s influence endures. “Aleksei Navalny was the symbol of a beautiful Russia of the future,” Kotov said after fleeing to Lithuania, fearing his own arrest. New York Times

A year after Navalny’s death, the Russian opposition struggles without its charismatic leader. A year after Alexei Navalny’s death in a Russian penal colony on Feb. 16, 2024, the opposition remains fractured and struggling to challenge President Vladimir Putin’s rule. Navalny’s death left a leadership void, with exiled activists unable to form a united front. His widow, Yulia Navalnaya, has vowed to continue his fight, advocating for Russian dissidents and meeting Western leaders. Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation persists in exposing government corruption, but opposition efforts remain limited to exile-based protests and diplomacy. On the anniversary of his death, Navalny’s grave was covered in flowers as supporters mourned the loss of Russia’s most prominent anti-Putin figure. His funeral in March 2024 saw a rare show of defiance, with tens of thousands attending. Meanwhile, Putin’s crackdown on dissent continues, making meaningful opposition within Russia increasingly difficult. While some exiled dissidents, including freed political prisoners, seek to reinvigorate the movement, their influence inside Russia remains minimal. Associated Press 

António Costa says Europe needs to negotiate ‘new security architecture’ with Russia. European Council President António Costa insisted Europe must lead negotiations on a new security framework, warning, “This war in Ukraine is not only about Ukraine. It is about European security.” He rejected President Donald Trump’s exclusion of the European Union, arguing, “If Trump wants Europeans to take responsibility, we must be key actors.” He called Russia a “global threat,” citing its presence in Moldova, Georgia, and aggression toward the Baltics. “Russia threatens our eastern border,” he said. As Trump rushes talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Costa urged Europe to act decisively: “We must shape security, not just react to deals made without us.”  Financial Times

New Sanctions for Putin’s ‘Shadow Fleet’ Are on the Horizon. The European Union is set to expand sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet, which helps Moscow bypass restrictions on oil exports. While the Joe Biden administration sanctioned 183 vessels, the Trump administration has yet to decide on further action. President Donald Trump has warned President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine or face harsher measures, assembling a team including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA Director John Ratcliffe. His advisors suggest lowering oil prices to pressure Moscow. EU ministers will meet on Feb. 24 to finalize sanctions on over 70 additional vessels. Coordination with Washington remains uncertain as Trump explores economic levers instead of military aid to influence Russia’s position. Wall Street Journal

Former Charity Worker and Activist Faces an Unlikely Accusation: Coup Plotter. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has accused Lucia Stasselova, a pro-Ukraine activist and retired charity worker, of plotting a coup after she was photographed with a Georgian soldier fighting for Ukraine. Fico, who has embraced anti-NGO rhetoric and strengthened ties with Russia, claims U.S.-funded organizations are undermining Slovakia. His accusations have been widely dismissed, with opposition leader Michal Simecka calling them a distraction from economic troubles. Stasselova’s group, Peace for Ukraine, has organized growing protests against Fico’s pro-Moscow shift. Despite threats, she remains defiant, dismissing the allegations as politically motivated fear-mongering. New York Times

European countries will not create one united army, says Poland's Sikorski. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said European countries will not form a unified army in response to Russian threats. Speaking to state TV on Saturday, he responded to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s call for a European army, emphasizing that while Europe should strengthen its defense, national armies will not merge. He supported European Union defense capabilities, including a reinforced brigade and subsidies for the defense industry. Sikorski also stated that Poland would not send troops to Ukraine, as its priority is to defend NATO’s eastern flank. He urged a mix of national, NATO, and EU forces for stronger European security. Reuters

Syrian suspect in Austria stabbing attack swore allegiance to Islamic State, authorities say.   A 23-year-old Syrian asylum seeker who killed a teenager and injured five others in the southern Austrian city of Villach Saturday had been radicalized online “in a short space of time,” Austrian interior minister Gerhard Karner told reporters Sunday. “It is an Islamist attack with IS connections,” Karner said, referring to the Islamic State. He said an Islamic State group flag had been found in the suspect's apartment. State police chief Michaela Kohlweiss said he had sworn allegiance to the group. Austrian authorities said the man had a valid residence permit and no criminal record. He attacked passersby with a folding knife, police said.  A 14-year-old boy died and five other males, including two 15-year-olds, were wounded. The attacker was stopped by a fellow Syrian, a food delivery driver who rammed his car into the suspect. Austria has a large Syrian refugee population of almost 100,000 people.  Associated Press Reuters The Guardian BBC

THE MIDDLE EAST

Netanyahu says Israel will ‘finish the job’ against Iran, with Trump’s support.   With U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at his side, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel would “finish the job” against Iran “under the strong leadership of President Trump.”  Rubio said that there “could never be a nuclear Iran.” He added, “It’s important to constantly point that whether we talk about Hamas or we talk about Hezbollah, we talk about violence in the West Bank, or we talk about destabilization in Syria, or we talk about any of these issues the militias in Iraq, they all have behind them one common theme – Iran. That must be addressed.” Earlier in February, President Donald Trump expressed the desire for a peace deal with Iran, but he insisted that Iran must forego nuclear weapons.  He wrote on Truth Social, “I want Iran to be a great and successful Country, but one that cannot have a nuclear weapon. Reports that the United States, working in conjunction with Israel, is going to blow Iran into smithereens ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED.”  US intelligence agencies recently warned both that Israel is likely to strike facilities key to Iran’s nuclear program this year.  Appearing on CBS’s Face the Nation from Israel, where he is making his first visit as Secretary of State, Rubio was asked if the U.S. supports a preemptive strike by Israel on Iran’s nuclear program.  “Israel will always have to act in what they believe is their national interest and their national defense,” Rubio replied.  “...There has been zero outreach or interest to date from Iran about any negotiated deal” with the U.S.  CNN  State Department

Iran’s foreign ministry asserts nation’s commitment to defense of controversial nuclear program. The Iranian Foreign Ministry on Monday affirmed that Tehran’s “peaceful nuclear program” is going strong, and “has been for the last three decades.” A ministry spokesperson stated that Iran will continue without hesitation, despite vows from Israel and the U.S. to counter its nuclear ambitions. The ministry said that the program is aligned with Iran’s rights under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and added that the country “will not show weakness” on the issue. Reuters

British couple detained in Iran on security charges identified. A British couple detained in Iran last month while traveling around the world on motorbikes has been identified as Craig and Lindsay Foreman.  Their family said Saturday that their situation was causing “significant concern.”  British media, citing social media posts, reported that they had crossed into Iran from Armenia on Dec. 30 and were heading for Pakistan when they were detained in Kerman. Associated Press The Guardian 

Trump administration cancels Biden bomb freeze, delivers 2,000-pound bombs to Israel. A shipment of  2,000-pound U.S.-made bombs has arrived in Israel after a nine-month freeze imposed by former President Joe Biden, the Israeli Defense Ministry announced Sunday.  The shipment, of 1,800  MK-84 2,000-pound bombs manufactured by General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems, landed in the Israeli port of Ashdod just as the Israeli government was considering ending the ceasefire with Hamas if all hostages aren’t released promptly.  The bomb shipment represents only a fraction of the total amount of armaments the U.S. has shipped to Israel during 16 months of war.  The Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel reported that the U.S. has supplied Israel with more than 76,000 tons of military equipment, the largest air and sea bridge in Israel’s history. But the shipment withheld by President Biden and released by President Donald Trump has been portrayed as emblematic of the policy differences between the two American administrations. President Biden froze a single delivery of 2,000-pound bombs in May 2024, after Israel went ahead with the invasion of Rafah, on grounds that the U.S. did not believe such large payload bombs were appropriate for use on the densely populated Gaza border city.  Trump reversed that order immediately after he was inaugurated.  “The munitions shipment that arrived in Israel tonight, released by the Trump administration, represents a significant asset for the air force and the IDF and serves as further evidence of the strong alliance between Israel and the United States,” Defense Minister Israel Katz said Saturday, heralding the arrival of the bombs. CNN  Reuters  Jerusalem Post  Times of Israel  

Israel’s Netanyahu praises Trump’s idea to move Palestinians out of Gaza and redevelop it under U.S. control.   Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that President Donald Trump’s plan to move the Palestinian population out of Gaza is “the only viable plan to enable a different future” for the region. Netanyahu discussed the idea with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was visiting Israel on a swing through the Middle East.   Rubio travels next to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Arab leaders oppose Trump’s proposal to move Palestinians out of Gaza, then clear it of rubble and unexploded munitions and rebuild it as the “Riviera of the Middle East” under U.S. control. Netanyahu has said all emigration from Gaza should be “voluntary,” but Trump has said Palestinians should be sent to permanent housing elsewhere.  Netanyahu said Sunday he and Trump have a “common strategy” for Gaza. Associated Press

Mideast envoy says phase two Gaza talks on track. U.S.  Middle envoy Steve Witkoff said  Sunday that phase two Gaza talks  between Israel and Hamas would continue this week "at a location to be determined." He told Fox News that he spoke Sunday with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Egypt's director of intelligence about "the sequencing of phase two, setting forth positions on both sides, so we can understand ... where we are today, and then continuing talks this week at a location to be determined so that we can figure out how we get to the end of phase two successfully." Reuters

Three Israeli hostages freed in Gaza. Three Israeli hostages have been freed from Gaza in exchange for 369 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.  The hostages - American Israeli Sagui Dekel-Chen, Russian Israeli Alexandre Troufanov and Argentine-Israeli Iair Horn - were released in Khan Younis. They men appeared to be in better condition than three released the previous week. Soon after, a spokesperson for the Israeli Prison Service said 369 Palestinian prisoners and detainees were released on Saturday, the largest number yet under the truce.  Reuters New York Times Times of Israel CNN The Guardian 

Israeli military chief visits the U.S. this week. Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, outgoing head of the Israeli military, will travel to the U.S. this week, the Israeli military said Sunday. Halevi, who is due to step down March 6, will meet senior U.S. commanders "to discuss key strategic and operational issues," a statement said.  Reuters

Israel going ahead with plans for nearly 1,000 more settler homes in West Bank, says watchdog. Anti-settlement watchdog Peace Now revealed on Monday that Israel has issued a tender for the construction of nearly 1,000 new settler homes in the occupied West Bank, which is home to 3 million Palestinians who live under military rule. The 974 housing units will expand the Efrat settlement by 40%, further restricting the growth of the nearby Palestinian city of Bethlehem. Most of the international community views Israeli settlements as a major obstacle to peace. However, Israel considers the West Bank as part of its historical and biblical homeland and opposes Palestinian statehood. Over 500,000 Israeli settlers live in the West Bank. Human rights organizations have called the situation apartheid, though Israel rejects this characterization. Peace Now accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government of accelerating settlement expansion while the Israeli people remain focused on the war in Gaza and the release of hostages. The group warned that the construction would further diminish chances for peace and a two-state solution. Associated Press

Hezbollah chief demands full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon by February 18. Hezbollah secretary general Naim Qassem said Sunday that Israeli troops must withdraw from Lebanese territory in full by February 18.  Under a truce brokered by Washington in November, Israeli troops were given 60 days to withdraw from southern Lebanon. That deadline was later extended to February 18. Israel's military requested that it keep troops in five posts in southern Lebanon, but Hezbollah objected.  Reuters Times of Israel

Israeli forces fire on returnees to southern Lebanon, killing one. A woman was killed and several other people wounded Sunday when Israeli forces opened fire on people trying to  return to the village of Houla in southern Lebanon, the Lebanese state-run news agency reported. The original deadline was in late January, but Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend it to Feb. 18. Associated Press

Hezbollah condemns attack on UN peacekeeping mission convoy in Beirut. Hezbollah condemned an attack on a United Nations Interim Force (UNIFIL) convoy in Beirut Friday. The State Department accused Hezbollah supporters of the attack. Reuters 

Turkey may pull troops back from Syria if Kurdish militants are eliminated.  Turkey’s foreign minister said Saturday his country would reconsider its military presence in northeastern Syria if Syria’s leaders eliminate a Kurdish militant group designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States and the European Union.  Hakan Fidan spoke at the Munich Security Conference alongside Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani, who did not comment on the remarks. Fidan has expressed such sentiments before.  “We can’t tolerate armed militia in any form,” Fidan said. He said such groups should be integrated “under one national army” in Syria and noted that its new leaders have been responsive to that idea. Associated Press 

ASIA & OCEANIA

U.S. scraps wording on website about not supporting Taiwan’s independence. The U.S. State Department has updated its website, removing the statement: "we do not support Taiwan independence." While the revised fact sheet still opposes unilateral changes from either Taiwan or China, it now includes references to Taiwan's participation in a Pentagon technology and semiconductor project, as well as U.S. support for Taiwan’s membership in international organizations where applicable. The Taiwanese government welcomed these changes as a sign of U.S. support. Washington, despite lacking formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, remains its strongest international ally and is legally committed to helping the self-governing island defend itself. The State Department reiterated its stance against coercion and called for peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues. China, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory, has not responded to the website changes. Beijing continues to oppose any support for Taipei from Washington. The update comes amid increased military activity by China near Taiwan, with the island reporting Chinese warships and military aircraft conducting drills around the island. Additionally, a Canadian warship recently sailed through the sensitive Taiwan Strait, highlighting ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region. Reuters South China Morning Post Focus Taiwan 

[shortcode-ExpertComment comment="I know people have been pushing for that clarity [abandoning "strategic ambiguity"], and I think it is foolhardy. Essentially this would be a blank check, saying no matter what the conditions, whatever a Taiwan president may do, the (U.S.) military will come in to save the day... You’re giving a safety net that essentially empowers another political party to employ the U.S. military. Secondly, it’s not going to deter China... To me, ambiguity still is the proper policy – to be situationally contingent, to make a decision based on the situation that has emerged, and then deploy your capabilities in a way that makes the most sense for those conditions at hand." text-source="The Cipher Brief: Is War Over Taiwan Inevitable?" expert-slug="mike-studeman" expert-id="2270274872"]

Canadian warship transits Taiwan Strait, drawing condemnation from China. The Chinese military has accused Canada of "deliberately” causing trouble and threatening regional peace and stability by sailing a warship, the Ottawa, through the Taiwan Strait on Monday. China reported that its forces monitored and warned the vessel. This mission comes shortly after similar U.S. naval operations in the area. While the U.S. and its allies, including Canada, Britain, and France, consider the strait an international waterway, China claims sovereignty over it, and views such transits as provocations. The People’s Liberation Army's Eastern Theatre Command asserted that its forces remain on high alert, and “resolutely” opposes “all threats and provocations.” Taiwan’s government, however, welcomed Canada’s action, stating it demonstrated support for freedom of navigation in the strait. On Monday, Taipei also asserted that the strait is "not within the scope of China's sovereignty.” Meanwhile, Taiwan reported intensified Chinese military activities, detecting 41 Chinese military aircraft and nine warships near the island over just 24 hours. This follows a pattern of increased Chinese military presence in the region, including previous war games around Taiwan. Reuters Reuters Deutsche Welle

China is rapidly gaining ground in new “cold war” over tech with U.S. Experts at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend described the U.S.-China rivalry as a "new cold war" over technology, with China increasingly narrowing the gap. The U.S. is expected to increase investment in military technology and tighten export controls on advanced chips to maintain its lead. Former U.S. Congressman Mike Gallagher stressed the “existential” stakes, warning that the U.S. must act urgently to stay ahead and asserting that “at least one side is trying to destroy the free world.” Mark Warner, a senior U.S. intelligence official, also acknowledged China as a formidable competitor, describing the nation as a “technology peer that we’ve never faced.” The rivalry is expected to escalate, particularly with AI and semiconductor advancements. President Donald Trump has revoked an executive order regulating AI safety, arguing it hindered innovation, and has also expressed concern over China's AI developments, particularly the DeepSeek model. His administration is expected to deregulate AI, tighten chip export controls, and boost defense tech investments. China is also advancing in AI and robotics, with strengths in low-cost technological applications. As one analyst said, “nobody really knows what China is capable of.” Experts continue to predict that technological competition and national security concerns will drive further U.S. restrictions on Beijing’s tech sector, making future cooperation on AI risk management uncertain. South China Morning Post

China’s Wang Yi says power will 'play along to the end' with U.S. While China does not seek conflict with the U.S., it will “play along to the end” if Washington continues to suppress it, said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Friday. Addressing participants at the Munich Security Conference, Wang warned that China would respond firmly to unilateral “bullying” but expressed hope for cooperation. Tensions between the two nations remain high, particularly over trade and technology. U.S. President Donald Trump recently imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods, prompting retaliatory tariffs from Beijing. Additionally, in the final weeks before Trump’s inauguration, the Biden administration tightened restrictions on selling advanced technology to China to curb its military-related chip development. Wang emphasized that China has grown despite obstacles and will not be deterred. He also referenced classic Chinese philosophy, reinforcing Beijing’s resilience, and noted, "these lines are hard to translate, you can get DeepSeek to help.” DeepSeek, China’s AI chatbot, has emerged despite U.S. chip restrictions and is seen as a competitor to American AI models like ChatGPT. Reuters South China Morning Post 

Will China fill diplomatic vacuum left by Washington at G20 foreign ministers’ meeting? U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s decision to skip the upcoming G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in Johannesburg over South Africa’s “anti-American” agenda has raised concerns that China could take a leadership role in the group, especially amid simmering tensions between Pretoria and Washington. China, positioning itself as a leader in global governance, has confirmed that Foreign Minister Wang Yi will attend the event, and Beijing has pledged to support South Africa’s G20 presidency. U.S. President Donald Trump has suspended aid to the country over concerns about its land policies, though South Africa has denied the allegations and asserted that it is acting within its laws. Meanwhile, as part of its broader Global South strategy, China has strengthened ties with South Africa and emphasized multilateralism and global cooperation. China is Pretoria’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $52.5 billion—more than twice the trade volume between South Africa and the U.S. Analysts believe the White House’s absence will allow Beijing to increase its influence, particularly in shaping discussions around debt relief, climate finance, and critical minerals for economic growth. Experts also warn that the U.S. withdrawal from the G20 could undermine its influence in global governance, especially since Washington is set to assume the G20 presidency in 2026. The lack of U.S. engagement may push other nations to work more closely with China and strengthen multilateral commitments. If the U.S. continues to step back, China may fill the diplomatic void, reshaping the future of international cooperation. South China Morning Post 

China, Cook Islands agree on action plan for strategic partnership deal. China and the Cook Islands have signed an action plan for a comprehensive strategic partnership, further strengthening their bilateral ties. The agreement, signed last week in Harbin, China, outlines cooperation in economic, environmental, cultural, and social areas. The deal has raised concerns in New Zealand, a U.S. ally with constitutional ties to the Cook Islands, amid fears that Beijing’s growing presence in the South Pacific could undermine Western influence in the region. Chinese officials emphasized that the agreement is not targeted at any third party and should not be interfered with. Although the Cook Islands operate as a self-governing state, New Zealand provides budget support and is responsible for the island’s defense, as its people hold New Zealand citizenship. Reuters The Guardian VOA  

Beijing, Manila trade barbs over South China Sea dispute. A heated discussion emerged at the Munich Security Conference over the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines, which doesn’t appear to be cooling down anytime soon. During a panel on maritime tensions in the Indo-Pacific, former Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister Fu Ying accused the Philippines of violating the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea by occupying new features, including the hotly contested Second Thomas Shoal and Sabina Shoal. Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo responded without naming China directly, arguing that the Philippines was following international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). He criticized states, particularly “rich, powerful” countries, that reinterpret agreements to impose their own laws over “weaker” nations. Tensions between the two countries have escalated, with China’s coastguard frequently blocking Philippine resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal, where Manila grounded a decrepit World War II-era vessel in 1999. These confrontations have led to violent clashes in recent years, including an incident in June that injured Filipino crew members. Other countries have also raised concerns over China’s actions, with Australia and Beijing recently butting heads over an incident in the South China Sea. U.S. Senator Christopher Coons, who took part in the discussion, emphasized the importance of maintaining open military communication between the U.S. and China to prevent misunderstandings and de-escalate tensions in the region. This was one of the few sessions at the conference focused on Asia, reflecting the increasing international attention on China’s maritime activities and their impact on regional stability. South China Morning Post 

U.S. military drills with Philippines 'purely defensive.’ The U.S. State Department on Saturday reaffirmed that U.S.-Philippine military exercises are longstanding, “purely defensive,” and aimed at maintaining force readiness and regional security. This statement by a spokesperson came in response to China’s demand that the Philippines withdraw U.S. Typhon intermediate-range missiles, which are capable of firing multipurpose missiles over thousands of kilometers. The temporary deployment of U.S. missile systems in the Philippines is intended to counter growing threats and uphold stability in the region, the State Department stressed. The U.S. emphasized that these systems are conventionally armed and not designed for nuclear payloads. In contrast, China has already deployed medium and intermediate-range ballistic missiles with both nuclear and conventional capabilities, some of which can reach up to 5,000 km. China’s defense ministry accused the Philippines of breaking promises by allowing the deployment of the Typhon missile system, calling it a "strategic offensive weapon." However, the Philippines denied making any such promises and insisted that the missile system is strictly for defensive purposes. Reuters  

'Unjust political interference’: Japan’s Ishiba denounces U.S. move to block Nippon Steel’s takeover of U.S. Steel. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Monday criticized the decision by a U.S. government review board and former President Joe Biden to prevent Nippon Steel's nearly $15 billion acquisition of the iconic American company U.S. Steel. Ishiba, who earlier this month met with President Donald Trump in Washington, condemned the move as "unjust political interference.” Reuters Associated Press 

AFRICA

Congo says Rwanda-backed rebels occupy a 2nd city in minerals-rich east.Rwanda-backed M23 rebels have “occupied” the eastern city of Bukavu, important as a center of mineral extraction, Congo’s government said Sunday. The M23 is a leading armed group in the region, fighting to control eastern Congo’s mineral wealth, worth trillions. The rebels are supported by about 4,000 troops from neighboring Rwanda, the Associated Press reported, quoting a United Nations experts. The rebels met little resistance from government troops on their entry into Bukavu, a city of 1.3 million people. Congo is the world's most important producer of cobalt, used in electric car batteries and cell phones, the world’s third largest global copper producer and a major source of coltan, lithium, tin, tungsten, tantalum and gold. Associated Press  Reuters BBC Al Jazeera Bloomberg

Sudan’s paramilitary forces attack displacement camp. Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) attacked the Zamzam displacement camp last week, exacerbating conditions for famine-stricken residents as the paramilitary group seeks to tighten control over Darfur while losing ground to the army in Khartoum. The ongoing conflict has displaced over a fifth of Sudan’s population since April 2023 and pushed half of the country into hunger; child malnutrition in Zamzam has risen to 34%. Residents and medics reported multiple RSF attacks on Zamzam last week; medical aid group MSF confirmed at least seven deaths, though residents fear the toll is much higher. Due to the violence, medical treatment is nearly impossible, as the nearest major hospital in al-Fashir has been frequently targeted by the RSF. The RSF claims that the camp harbors Joint Forces, ex-rebels now aligned with the Sudanese army, though the Joint Forces deny their presence there. The Sudanese government said that its forces managed to push the RSF back from Zamzam on Wednesday. The paramilitary has bombarded the camp for months, forcing some residents to dig holes for shelter. Reports indicate widespread arson, with half the camp’s main market destroyed. Surrounding villages have also been targeted, with tens of thousands fleeing to Zamzam and swelling its population to nearly one million. Amnesty International has condemned the assaults, saying that “attacking and killing civilians seeking safety in a displaced persons camp and looting its market is unconscionable.” The United Nations also denounced the attacks, as well as the blocking of escape routes. Reuters Amnesty International Al Jazeera BBC 

Claims surface that Russian mercenaries abducted missing Central African Republic soldiers. Politicians and human rights advocates in the Central African Republic (CAR) claim that two soldiers who disappeared after being detained last month were kidnapped by Russian-backed mercenaries. Moscow has strengthened its ties with CAR’s government and military in recent years, using mercenaries to combat rebels and expand influence, but its involvement has faced mounting backlash over alleged abuses. The missing soldiers, Celestin Bakoyo and Elie Ngouengue, were former militia leaders aligned with the Wagner Group, fighting rebels in southeastern CAR. They were reportedly detained on January 24 at a police station in Bangui, the capital. One politician stated that Russian mercenaries had arrested them, though their whereabouts remain unknown, with law enforcement and Russian contractors offering no information. Protests and marches have erupted in response to their disappearance, as many fear the mercenaries are consolidating control by removing local security forces. A human rights leader called the case a kidnapping, stressing that due process should be followed, and their families should have access to them. Residents of Obo, where the soldiers’ militia operated, expressed anger, believing that the Russian-backed forces had trained the militia only to dismantle it. CAR was one of the first African countries where Russian mercenaries became active, initially helping defend the government against rebel forces in 2021. However, they have faced accusations of human rights abuses, including torture, killings, and rape. A 2023 U.S.-based investigation by The Sentry found that Wagner-affiliated forces trained CAR’s army in torture tactics as part of their efforts to suppress opposition groups. Associated Press 

Six Benin troops killed in militant attack. A militant attack on an army position in northern Benin resulted in the deaths of six soldiers over the weekend, while 17 militants were killed in the clash, according to an army spokesperson. The attack occurred on Saturday, as Benin’s military continued efforts to counter cross-border assaults by Islamist groups. The incident comes in the wake of a deadly January attack in Alibori, a northern region bordering Niger and Burkina Faso, both of which are struggling with Islamist insurgencies. Benin and neighboring Togo have faced increasing attacks in recent years as Islamic State and al-Qaeda-linked groups expand their influence beyond the Sahel region. Reuters 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Vance uses first trip overseas to blast EU over tech regulations. During his first trip abroad as U.S. Vice President, JD Vance castigated European tech regulations, accusing the European Union’s policies on disinformation and online content moderation of resembling Soviet-era censorship. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Vance condemned European laws restricting social media content, referring to the officials enforcing them "commissars." His Friday speech came in the wake of earlier remarks at the Paris AI Action Summit, where he claimed that Europe’s tech laws hinder AI development and stifle innovation. His comments reflect growing hostility from the Trump administration and U.S. tech leaders like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg, who argue that E.U. fines on tech companies are similar to tariffs and limit free speech. The European Commission responded cautiously, with tech policy chief Henna Virkkunen stating that E.U. rules apply equally to all companies, regardless of their origin. However, Vance remained aggressive, mocking concerns about Russian disinformation campaigns and election interference. He brushed off the idea that foreign influence on social media could seriously undermine democracy, questioning the strength of European political systems if they could be swayed by such tactics. Vance also took on Romania, where the shocking victory of far-right candidate Călin Georgescu in a TikTok-fueled election was annulled due to suspected Russian interference. He accused European elites of using “ugly, Soviet era” terms like "misinformation" and "disinformation" to suppress alternative viewpoints rather than protect democracy. His remarks are part of a broader U.S. push against European tech regulation, particularly as the Digital Services Act (DSA) begins imposing massive fines on major U.S. tech firms, including Meta and X (formerly Twitter). The bloc’s reactions to Vance’s speech were mixed. Some lawmakers called for a stronger E.U. response to Washington’s criticisms, while others advised avoiding direct confrontation with Washington. Some experts, like Marietje Schaake from Stanford University, suggested that America’s aggressive stance should encourage Europe to strengthen its digital sovereignty and reduce reliance on American tech firms “that proudly support this confrontational White House." Politico EU Associated Press CNN NPR   

Changes to Biden’s CHIPS act could mean bad news for consumers, and AI growth. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on semiconductors and his threats to alter federal contracts with chipmakers could create obstacles for U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) research, despite his push to keep the country ahead in the field. Since taking office, Trump has advocated for tariffs on foreign-made chips to encourage domestic manufacturing and has threatened to end the CHIPS and Science Act, a Biden-era law aimed at bolstering U.S. chip production. Experts warn that this dual approach could slow AI development, raise consumer prices, and hurt the semiconductor industry rather than strengthen it. Economists and tech analysts argue that chip shortages—exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic—have already impacted industries ranging from AI to automobiles. The CHIPS Act, which had invested $30 billion in U.S. chip manufacturing projects as of August last year, has started reducing Washington’s reliance on Taiwan, which currently produces over 90% of the world’s most advanced chips. Trump, however, believes that companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) should build factories in the U.S. without government subsidies, instead relying on the threat of tariffs as an incentive. Taiwan has already dispatched senior economic officials to Washington to negotiate and possibly avoid a 100% tariff on chips. Experts warn that broad tariffs would increase costs for manufacturers and consumers; everything from smartphones to smart appliances and AI systems relies on semiconductors, meaning price hikes would affect nearly all tech products. Even major tech firms like Nvidia would feel the impact. Economists argue that tariffs could backfire, raising costs for U.S. businesses, discouraging investment in domestic chip production, and undermining America’s AI leadership. By simultaneously cutting off CHIPS Act funding and taxing chip imports, the U.S. could weaken its semiconductor sector, while other countries capitalize by adopting their own incentives for chip manufacturing. Historically, U.S. technological leadership has depended on openness to global markets and talent, and experts caution that restricting imports and investment could stifle innovation, rather than advancing American dominance in AI and semiconductor production. Associated Press 

Russian arms makers make big showing at Arab defense fair. At the 2025 IDEX defense exhibition in Abu Dhabi, Russian defense companies made a notable return, featuring over a dozen exhibitors showcasing upgraded weaponry. This presence contrasts sharply with the 2023 edition, where Russian firms were relegated to a separate pavilion and omitted from the official exhibitor list. The prominent placement of Russian exhibitors alongside major regional players like Saudi Arabia's Military Industries and Qatar's Barzan Holdings signifies a strategic effort to reestablish Russia's position in the global arms market, despite previous declines in weapon transfers due to the Ukraine conflict and international sanctions. Highlighted at the event were Kalashnikov Group's new Kub-2-E strike drone, designed for swarm attacks, and an export variant of the T-90 Proryv main battle tank, equipped with enhanced defenses against first person-view drones. These developments underscore Russia's intent to market combat-proven equipment and adapt to modern warfare challenges. Defense News

Europol chief says police risk losing society’s trust in the struggle against cybercrime. Europol chief Catherine De Bolle warned last week that law enforcement agencies risk losing public trust if societies do not understand the need for expanded powers to combat rising cybercrime. Speaking at the Munich Cyber Security Conference, she defended the need for lawful access to encrypted data, particularly amid controversy over the U.K.’s reported attempt to access encrypted iCloud accounts. De Bolle stressed that cybercrime is growing in both volume and complexity, with criminals exploiting telecom infrastructure, dark web marketplaces, and advanced crime tools. While law enforcement needs enhanced capabilities to address these threats, she cautioned that scaling such powers without public understanding could erode trust in state institutions. She highlighted Europol’s recent successes, including the disruption of the LockBit ransomware group, but stressed that criminals evolve quickly, requiring continuous investment in new solutions and legal frameworks that reflect modern cyberspace realities. Calling for greater cooperation between law enforcement and technology companies, she urged tech giants to collaborate more on encryption issues. She also underscored the need for stronger partnerships between civilian and government cyber defenders to develop a unified approach to cyber threats rather than a “fragmented” response. The Record

Taiwan employing AI in fight against disinformation campaigns. Taiwanese former digital affairs minister Audrey Tang spoke at the Munich Cyber Security Conference on Friday about how AI is helping Taiwan combat Chinese disinformation on social media. She explained that AI is being used to pre-bunk false narratives before they spread online, as the sovereign island faces an increasing wave of Chinese influence operations. According to Taiwan’s National Security Bureau (NSB), the amount of false or biased information from China grew by 60% in 2024, reaching 2.16 million pieces, with platforms like Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), and TikTok playing a major role. In response, Tang initiated the "Alignment Assemblies" project two years ago, using open-source AI to facilitate citizen discussions on misinformation. The Taiwan government invited 200,000 random citizens via SMS to discuss information integrity. AI moderated these sessions, ensuring equal participation, muting interruptions, and summarizing key points in real-time. The deliberative polling platform, developed with Stanford University, made these discussions transparent and insightful, allowing participants to see common concerns and areas of disagreement. Now serving as Taiwan’s ambassador-at-large, Tang is advocating for major social media platforms to adopt AI algorithms to detect and counter disinformation more effectively. The Record Focus Taiwan 

Microsoft threat researchers identify ‘device code’ phishing attacks targeting accounts. Microsoft threat researchers uncovered a device code phishing campaign attributed to Storm-2372, a suspected Russia-aligned threat group that has compromised critical infrastructure organizations across Europe, North America, Africa, and the Middle East. The campaign, which began in August 2024, has targeted governments, IT services, telecom, healthcare, education, and energy sectors. Attackers used legitimate device code authentication requests to trick victims into inputting codes into fake login pages, allowing them to steal authentication tokens and move laterally within networks. Storm-2372 spread phishing lures via Microsoft Teams, WhatsApp, and Signal, impersonating important figures to gain victims’ trust before sending fake Teams meeting invitations embedded with malicious device codes. Once victims authenticated the codes, attackers gained persistent access to their accounts and expanded their reach by sending additional phishing emails from compromised accounts. The group also used Microsoft Graph to search and extract emails containing sensitive information, such as usernames, passwords, admin credentials, and government-related keywords. Microsoft’s Threat Intelligence Center believes Storm-2372 aligns with Russian interests, though it is tracking the group separately from other Russian-linked hacking groups. Volexity researchers also identified similar phishing campaigns used by multiple Russian state-sponsored groups, including Midnight Blizzard (CozyLarch), UTA0304, and UTA0307. One highly targeted incident involved an attacker posing as a Ukrainian Ministry of Defense official to deceive a victim into clicking a fake secure chat invitation on Element, which then generated a device code that granted attacker’s access. Security experts warn that Storm-2372’s techniques could allow long-term access as long as the stolen authentication tokens remain valid, making device code phishing a growing cybersecurity threat. Cyberscoop Microsoft CybersecurityNews   

REPORT INFO

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

Read deeply experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion in The Cipher Brief