Report for Monday, February 10, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Monday, February 10, 2025

Trump says he’s spoken with Putin, says Kremlin leader ‘wants to see people stop dying.’

US spy planes hunt for intel on Mexican drug cartels as surveillance flights surge near border

Musk will find billions in Pentagon waste, Trump says

Trump, set to meet with Middle Eastern leaders, committed to ‘buying and owning Gaza.’

China’s Strategy in Trade War: Threaten U.S. Tech Companies

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Understanding an ‘Unprecedented Moment’ for the FBI. Former FBI officials Jill Sanborn and Javed Ali caution that the Trump administration’s restructuring of the FBI could weaken national security. The administration has forced resignations, ordered employees to disclose involvement in January 6 investigations, and nominated Kash Patel as FBI director, signaling a shift toward immigration, drug trafficking, and violent crime over counterintelligence and counterterrorism. Sanborn fears a loss of personnel could leave the FBI unable to respond to major crises. She cited the 2015 San Bernardino attack, where a married couple, radicalized by extremist ideology, killed 14 people and injured 22 in a mass shooting at a holiday party. She recalled that every agent in the Los Angeles field office was needed to handle the case, and a similar future attack could overwhelm a downsized FBI. Ali called the changes “unprecedented,” questioning whether counterterrorism will be deprioritized. Both experts stress that uncertainty is harming morale and could lead to intelligence blind spots. The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump says he’s spoken with Putin, says Kremlin leader ‘wants to see people stop dying.’ President Donald Trump told the New York Post in an interview aboard Air Force One on Friday that he has spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone to try to negotiate an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine. He refused to say how many times they had spoken but claimed Putin “does care” about the battlefield deaths. “He wants to see people stop dying,” Trump said. “All those dead people. Young, young, beautiful people. They’re like your kids, two million of them – and for no reason.” He again insisted the war “never would have happened” if he had been president in 2022, calling Joe Biden “a complete embarrassment.” Addressing National Security Advisor Mike Waltz aboard Air Force One, Trump pressed for immediate action: “Let’s get these meetings going. They want to meet. Every day people are dying. Young handsome soldiers are being killed. Young men, like my sons. On both sides. All over the battlefield.” Vice President J.D. Vance will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference this week. Trump also proposed a $500 million deal for Ukraine’s rare-earth minerals and gas in exchange for security guarantees in a potential peace settlement. The Kremlin would not confirm or deny that Putin and Trump have talked. New York Post Reuters

Trump says he may meet Zelensky this week. U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday he will "probably" meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky next week, possibly in Washington, though he ruled out traveling to Kyiv. Zelensky stressed the importance of meeting before Trump meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin, warning against a "dialogue about Ukraine without Ukraine." Trump, who has vowed a swift end to the war, again emphasized Ukraine’s natural resources, stating he wants “an equal amount of something” in return for U.S. support. Meanwhile, Trump envoy Keith Kellogg denied plans to unveil a Ukraine peace deal at the Feb. 14-16 Munich Security Conference. On Sunday, Zelensky again stressed the need for strong Western security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression. "A frozen conflict will lead to more aggression again and again. Who then will win prizes and go down in history as the victor? No one. It will be an absolute defeat for everyone, both for us, as is important, and for Trump," Zelenskiy told Britain's ITV. "He needs not just to end the war. He needs to act so that Putin has no chance to wage war on us again…That would be a victory.’’ Reuters RFE/RL Reuters

Waltz says ‘everybody is ready to help President Trump end this war.’ U.S. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, speaking Sunday to NBC’s Meet the Press about Russia’s war on Ukraine, said that "we need to get all sides to the table and end this war.” He said President Donald Trump is engaging global leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping and India’s Narendra Modi, in discussions. "Everybody is ready to help President Trump end this war," he said. Waltz would not confirm whether Trump has spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin but stressed that "the president's prepared to put all of those issues on the table this week," including U.S. aid to Ukraine. He added, "We need to recoup those costs," suggesting Ukraine’s natural resources and energy sector could play a role. Waltz asserted that "the Europeans have to own this conflict going forward" and that postwar security guarantees would be Europe’s responsibility. NBC’s Meet the Press

Zelensky says 'Let's do a deal,' offering Trump mineral partnership, seeking security. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Reuters in an interview Friday that he is open to a mineral partnership with the U.S., offering access to Ukraine’s rare earths and other critical resources. “If we are talking about a deal, then let's do a deal,” he said, emphasizing the need for security guarantees in any agreement. He stressed that Ukraine was not "giving away" resources but wanted a mutually beneficial arrangement: “The Americans helped the most, and therefore the Americans should earn the most.” Zelensky highlighted Ukraine's vast mineral wealth, including Europe’s largest titanium reserves and uranium deposits. He warned that Moscow could exploit occupied resources, potentially sharing them with North Korea and Iran. He also proposed using Ukraine’s gas storage sites for U.S. liquefied natural gas. He insisted on meeting the American president before Donald Trump holds talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Otherwise, it will look like a dialogue about Ukraine without Ukraine,” he said. Reuters Politico EU

Quotes from Zelensky's interview with Reuters. President Volodymyr Zelensky gave an interview to Reuters on Friday. Here are some of his key quotes. Rare earths and minerals: "We need to stop (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and protect what we have - a very rich Dnipro region, central Ukraine. It seems that (U.S. President Donald) Trump can say to Putin: 'Listen, you just took trillions, it doesn't work like that. You have to give back what belongs to another country.'" Partnerships with allies: "This is very rich land. This does not mean that we are giving it away to anyone, even to strategic partners. We are talking about partnership. Let's develop this together, make money, and most importantly, it's about the security of the Western world.” Offer to store U.S. liquified natural gas: "We are ready and willing to have contracts for LNG supplies to Ukraine. And, of course, we will be a hub for Europe." Talks with Trump and his team: "Security guarantees are the main issue I want to talk about with President Trump.” Reconstruction: "Those who defend us will rebuild Ukraine. And here, in addition to gratitude, it is a lot of money for business." Reuters

Trump says he wants to negotiate about Ukraine. It’s not clear if Putin does. U.S. President Donald Trump wants to negotiate on Ukraine, but Russian President Vladimir Putin has little reason to agree. Russian troops are advancing, Ukraine is short on men and weapons, and Trump could cut U.S. aid. Trump has suggested he and Putin could act soon, claiming talks have begun without Kyiv’s involvement. Putin expects Trump to weaken European resolve. Moscow has dismissed Trump’s threats of tariffs and oil price cuts, while Putin’s past negotiations suggest he sees talks as a means to extract concessions without giving ground. Analysts doubt Trump can force a settlement without major compromises. Former British diplomat Kim Darroch warns that Trump’s legacy will be at stake if he concedes too much. Despite Trump’s self-professed deal-making skills, Putin remains committed to Russia’s objectives in Ukraine. A meeting may bolster Russia’s global standing but will unlikely bring a peace deal on Trump’s terms. Associated Press

US officials are bound for Europe to hold top-level talks on Ukraine. As U.S. officials prepare for high-level talks in Europe, President Donald Trump’s administration is signaling a shift toward negotiations with Russia over Ukraine. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said that Trump is prepared to pressure Moscow with tariffs and sanctions but also aims to reduce U.S. aid to Ukraine and shift more responsibility to European allies. Vice President JD Vance will attend an AI summit in Paris before joining Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and envoy Keith Kellogg at the Munich Security Conference, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s delegation will push for continued Western support. Hegseth will also meet with NATO defense ministers and attend the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels. US Defense Department Associated Press 

Ukraine’s Western backers will meet for arms talks as doubts over US intentions grow. The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will meet Wednesday under U.K. leadership, marking the first time the U.S. has not convened the forum coordinating security assistance for Ukraine. The shift comes amid doubts over continued American support under President Donald Trump. The U.S. remains Ukraine’s largest arms supplier, providing about 30% of its weaponry—roughly equal to the European Union’s contributions. Some analysts see the U.K.’s leadership as a sign of U.S. disengagement, although Trump’s defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, will attend. Associated Press

‘Axis of evil has to be stopped,’ says Ukraine’s ambassador to the US. In an interview with MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell, Ukraine's Ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova, emphasized the urgency of halting the emerging "axis of evil," comprising Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. She highlighted the deepening cooperation among these nations, which threatens global stability. Markarova underscored the need for better support from Western allies to counteract this alliance. She stressed that sustained assistance is vital for the broader fight against authoritarianism. MSNBC

Russia claims it’s taken another eastern Ukraine town. Russia claimed Friday to have taken Toretsk, a coal-mining town in Donetsk Oblast, though Ukraine has not confirmed its fall. Toretsk is strategically important due to its fortified underground positions and proximity to key Ukrainian logistics hubs. Its loss would further weaken Ukraine’s defensive belt in the east. Russian forces have captured several towns in Donetsk Oblast, including Avdiivka and Vuhledar in 2024, Kurakhove in early 2025, and Velyka Novosilka last month. Moscow’s offensive, relying on heavy bombardment and infantry assaults, aims to seize the remaining Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk, including Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. Russian advances come as Ukraine faces manpower and ammunition shortages. Russian glide bomb strikes and expanding air operations have intensified since 2024, accelerating the destruction of front-line cities. Russia seeks to consolidate control over the entire Donbas region. Associated Press

As Ukraine struggles to field soldiers, recruitment centers are attacked. Ukraine is struggling to replenish its forces as attacks on recruitment centers escalate. Kyiv blames Russian intelligence for orchestrating bombings, using financial incentives to recruit locals—sometimes unwittingly—to plant explosives. Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, said Russia’s goal is to “sow more division between military and civilians.” However, not all attacks are tied to Moscow. On January 31, a conscript en route to training called an acquaintance for help escaping; when the bus stopped, the acquaintance fatally shot a recruitment officer. The incident underscores growing reluctance among Ukrainians to serve. Some officers fear for their safety, with soldiers marking their cars to avoid being mistaken for recruiters. A December poll found that 38% of Ukrainians support a ceasefire that leaves occupied territories under Russian control, up from under 20% a year earlier. President Volodymyr Zelensky, citing 390,000 wounded soldiers, said he would negotiate with Vladimir Putin “if that is the only setup.” Washington Post

Zelensky says military to introduce 'special contracts' to motivate younger volunteer fighters. Ukraine plans to introduce "special contracts" to attract volunteer fighters aged 18 to 24, who are currently exempt from conscription, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday in his interview with Reuters. The contracts, offering "a very high monetary provision," aim to address manpower shortages without lowering the draft age, despite U.S. and NATO pressure to expand conscription to 18. The Ukrainian military struggles to replenish battle-hardened brigades, with enlistment requiring indefinite service. Kyiv has resisted U.S. calls to lower the draft age, with Zelensky warning it would harm Ukraine’s future. Details of the new contracts will be announced in the coming days. Kyiv Independent

It’s Russian Men Against Ukrainian Machines on the Battlefields in Ukraine. Outnumbered at least 5-to-1 on much of the eastern front, Ukraine is using explosive drones to slow, but not stop, Russia’s infantry advances. In Pokrovsk, where Russian troops have failed to capture the city after nearly a year, drones now replace much of traditional reconnaissance and frontline combat. A battalion commander south of Pokrovsk acknowledged the strategy’s limits: “Drones can’t replace men… They can disrupt an enemy attack but not fully stop it.” Despite Russia suffering high casualties, their persistent manpower allows them to push forward. Aging, inexperienced conscripts, and a lack of reinforcements further strain Ukraine’s defenses. In some areas, Ukrainian drone teams have stalled Russian advances, but bad weather, electronic jamming, and urban combat lessen their effectiveness. A major in the 68th Jaeger Brigade summed up the challenge: “We don’t have time to let people adapt… There’s a shortage in every position, especially in the infantry.” Wall Street Journal

Ukraine says North Korean troops are back on the front lines of Russia's war. North Korean troops have returned to the front lines in Russia’s Kursk region after a temporary withdrawal, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday. Western intelligence had previously reported that they were pulled back after suffering heavy losses, with at least 1,000 of the 11,000 deployed troops killed in three months. The UK estimated 4,000 casualties overall, describing their tactics as brutal and ineffective. A Ukrainian commander likened their attacks to “a World War II movie.” North Korea and Russia have deepened military ties, with Pyongyang supplying weapons and ammunition. Zelensky said Ukrainian forces had inflicted “hundreds” of casualties while launching a new offensive that advanced 2.5 kilometers. Business Insider BBC

As Trump pushes for ceasefire talks, Ukraine sees Kursk as a potential bargaining chip. Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region is emerging as a potential bargaining chip as U.S. President Donald Trump pushes for ceasefire talks. Ukrainian forces recently advanced up to five kilometers, marking their most significant territorial gain since Kherson’s liberation in 2022. Despite Russia reclaiming half the lost land, it has suffered heavy losses—40,000 casualties in six months, including 16,100 killed. Ukraine also captured 909 Russian troops. CNN

The Tactics Behind Ukraine’s New Kursk Operation. Ukrainian forces recently advanced three miles into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, taking advantage of an operational pause by Russian and North Korean troops. They reached positions near Fanaseevka but now face heavy Russian artillery and drone strikes. Ukraine’s attack mirrored Russian tactics—probing enemy lines for weaknesses before deploying fast-moving infantry—though with a key difference. Unlike Russia, which relies on waves of expendable troops, Ukraine uses special forces and drones for reconnaissance, reducing casualties. The operation’s success depends on whether reinforcements arrive before Russian counterattacks. A Russian blogger noted that undermanned positions could quickly be lost despite initial gains. Forbes.

Ukraine is the biggest loser in USAID funding cuts. President Donald Trump has frozen over $60 billion in U.S. foreign aid for 90 days, with Ukraine the largest recipient, receiving $17.2 billion in non-military aid in 2023. USAID, which managed most of this funding, has been effectively dismantled, with its Washington headquarters emptied and its website taken down. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has suggested abolishing the agency entirely, citing inefficiencies, while Trump called its spending corrupt. Ukraine received $16 billion in non-military aid, including $654 million classified as security-related assistance, under USAID-managed programs, far exceeding other countries. Other agencies managed another $1.2 billion in non-military aid. Washington Post The Times

Independent media in Russia, Ukraine lose their funding with USAID freeze. The U.S. freeze on USAID funding has devastated independent media outlets in Ukraine and Russia that rely on grants to survive. Ukrainian outlets, already struggling from plummeting ad revenue since Russia’s full-scale invasion, warn they may be forced to slash staff or shut down. Investigative journalist Denys Bihus said USAID grants funded two-thirds of his projects, while Detector Media estimates over half of Ukraine’s grant-receiving media depended on U.S. aid. In Russia, independent outlets – many operating in exile abroad – face collapse as foreign funding disappears. Critics argue that cutting USAID undermines democracy and U.S. interests by silencing independent reporting, particularly on Russian war crimes. The loss of Ukrainian-run reporting from occupied areas risks allowing Russian propaganda to dominate. Washington Post

What went wrong with Biden's arms shipments to Ukraine. In a special episode of the Reuters World News podcast, journalists Mari Saito, Anastasiia Malenko, and Erin Banco examine the delays in U.S. arms shipments to Ukraine during President Joe Biden's final year in office. Despite efforts to expedite deliveries after the November election, the administration faced setbacks due to congressional inaction and internal debates. These delays damaged Ukraine's frontline defenses, highlighting the challenges within U.S. political and bureaucratic systems in providing timely military support. Reuters

Russian Missile Attacks Force Ukraine to Buy Gas From EU. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine’s state-owned gas infrastructure have forced the country to buy costly replacement fuel from the European Union. Airstrikes have cut Naftogaz Group’s production by up to a third, requiring about 1 billion cubic meters of gas imports. While small in Europe’s overall demand, the purchases come as gas futures near two-year highs. Ukraine, which boosted gas output by 5% last year, had previously ruled out imports but reversed course after recent attacks. Slovakia resumed gas deliveries to Ukraine this week. Bloomberg Reuters

Russia’s Crude Oil Exports to the EU via Ukraine Dropped 15% in 2024. According to Vedomosti, Russian crude oil exports to the European Union via Ukraine fell 15% in 2024 to 11.5 million tons (230,300 barrels per day). The decline affects the southern Druzhba pipeline route, which supplies the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary. While the EU banned seaborne Russian crude in 2022, pipeline deliveries remain exempt for landlocked countries. Hungary remained the largest buyer, receiving 4.8 million tons, while Slovakia’s imports fell 13% and Czech imports dropped 1.5 times. Total Russian crude exports, including all routes, fell 2.2% last year, reflecting sanctions and Western efforts to curb Russia’s oil revenues. Oil Price

How the Kim Philby of Kyiv infiltrated Team Zelensky. Oleh Kulinich, a senior Ukrainian intelligence official, is on trial for high treason, accused of being Russia’s most valuable FSB agent in Ukraine. He allegedly infiltrated Volodymyr Zelensky’s campaign and later the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) with help from Vladimir Sivkovich, a former Ukrainian official turned Russian spymaster. Using a network linked to Moscow, Kulinich reportedly diverted counterintelligence resources and obstructed warnings about Russia’s invasion from Crimea. His 2022 arrest exposed his alleged role in passing state secrets, leading to a sweeping SBU purge. His trial continues, facing up to 15 years in prison. The Times

‘Be Cruel’: Inside Russia’s Torture System for Ukrainian POWs. Russia’s prison authorities established a system of brutal torture for Ukrainian POWs, instructing guards to use unrestricted violence. Testimonies from defected prison officials and survivors describe systematic beatings, electric shocks, and forced amputations. Guards experimented with methods to maximize pain and break prisoners’ will, often laughing during abuse. Witnesses confirmed the system was designed at high levels, with special forces rotating through different prisons. Released prisoners report lasting physical and psychological trauma. Russian officials deny broad mistreatment. The ICC has issued arrest warrants for Russian leaders, but investigations into war crimes, including systematic torture, are ongoing. Wall Street Journal

Ukrainians are vanishing into Russia. These people track them down. Thousands of Ukrainians have been abducted and imprisoned across Russia, with volunteers and insiders risking their lives to track them down. Nadezhda Yevdokimova last saw her husband, Vlad, when Russian soldiers seized him in northeastern Ukraine. After months of silence, a Russian prison guard secretly informed her he was alive. Many detainees vanish into a legal void, held without charges or communication. Activists and lawyers, including Russians, work covertly to document cases and support families. Despite international calls for Russia to release these civilians, few have been freed. Some prisoners endure severe torture, while families like Nadezhda’s continue searching. Washington Post

An American Teacher Went to Ukraine. Now he’s in a Russian Prison. Stephen James Hubbard, a 73-year-old retired American teacher, was arrested by Russian forces in April 2022 while trying to flee Izium, Ukraine. Accused of being a mercenary, he was tortured and imprisoned in multiple Russian detention centers before being sentenced in October 2024 to nearly seven years in a penal colony. Former Ukrainian prisoners who were held with him dispute the charges and say he suffered severe beatings, forced standing, electrocution, and psychological abuse. His case remained largely unnoticed until the U.S. State Department designated him as “wrongfully detained” last month. His sister, Patricia Hubbard Fox, has been unable to locate him or secure help from U.S. officials. Hubbard is the oldest known American imprisoned in Russia, reportedly singled out for harsh treatment due to his nationality. His family hopes for intervention, as former cellmates fear he will not survive his sentence. New York Times

'It Felt Like Something Bad Was Brewing': Voices of Russians Who Fled. Following the Kremlin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, two major waves of emigration saw hundreds of thousands flee Russia, many to Georgia, Armenia, Turkey, and Kazakhstan. A July 2024 study estimated 650,000 Russians remain abroad, down from a peak of around 1 million. Many left due to war or repression, with emigrants largely young, educated, and financially stable. Some have struggled to rebuild lives, while others have integrated into new communities. Many reject returning to Russia under current conditions, echoing past Russian emigration waves. Some who went to Georgia fear creeping authoritarianism in their new homes due to Russian influence. RFE/RL

2 killed, 16 injured in Russian attacks across Ukraine over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day killed two civilians and injured 16, regional officials reported on Monday. Russia launched 83 drones, with Ukrainian air defenses downing 61. In Donetsk Oblast, one person was killed in Kramatorsk, and 12 were injured. Another person was killed in Kherson Oblast. Casualties were also reported in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Russia continues daily strikes on civilian areas, with Ukraine facing intensified assaults. Kyiv Independent

Russian strike on Ukraine's Sumy region kills 3. Three people were killed in a Russian guided bomb attack on Ukraine's northeastern region of Sumy, Ukrainian authorities said on Friday. The attack, with three guided aerial bombs, destroyed a residential building in Myropillya. The village is near the border with Russia's Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops are locked in fierce fighting with Russian forces after launching an incursion there last year. Reuters

Ukraine downs Russian guided bomb near Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine’s Air Force shot down a Russian guided aerial bomb near Zaporizhzhia on Friday, a rare feat given their high speed and durability. Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat did not specify how it was intercepted but emphasized the need for combined air defenses to counter the threat. Telegram channels suggested experimental weaponry may have been used. Russia frequently attacks frontline areas with these bombs, launching 760 in the past week alone. In 2024, Russian glide bombs killed 360 Ukrainian civilians and injured 1,861, a sharp rise in casualties. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine's military says it shot down 70 out of 151 drones launched by Russia overnight. Ukraine’s military said Sunday it shot down 70 of 151 drones Russia launched overnight, with 74 others failing to reach targets, likely due to electronic warfare. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had used 1,260 aerial bombs, nearly 750 drones, and over 10 missiles this week. He urged stronger global efforts to curb Russia’s oil revenue and announced plans to expand Ukraine’s missile and drone production, calling on partners to invest in the country’s defense industry. Reuters

Russia launches drone attacks on Kyiv, Sumy. Russia launched overnight drone attacks on Kyiv and Sumy, Ukrainian officials said Monday. A fire broke out at a non-residential building in Kyiv, but no injuries were reported. In Sumy, a 38-year-old woman was hospitalized, and five houses were damaged. Thousands of Ukrainian civilians have been killed since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Reuters

Ukraine to launch 'Drone Line' project to enhance battlefield operations. Ukraine's Defense Ministry announced the "Drone Line" project on Feb. 9 to enhance frontline drone operations. The initiative will integrate unmanned aerial systems into elite Ground Forces and Border Guard units, creating a 10-15 kilometer kill zone to disrupt enemy movements. Five elite regiments, including "K-2," "Achilles," and "Magyar's Birds," will see expanded drone capabilities. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov called it a new standard in warfare, ensuring constant aerial support for infantry. The project, backed by President Volodymyr Zelensky, highlights Ukraine’s focus on advancing drone warfare technology to counter Russia’s ongoing invasion. Kyiv Independent

How War Has Wreaked Havoc on Ukraine’s Classrooms. Russia’s war has devastated Ukraine’s education system, leaving 3.7 million children struggling academically and socially. Many students study entirely online, while those in frontline areas attend classes in underground bunkers. Ukraine’s future is at risk as a generation of children falls behind. Constant air raid disruptions, limited peer interaction, and outdated virtual instruction methods are stunting their development. Without solutions, the war’s damage will persist, weakening Ukraine’s economy and jeopardizing the country’s post-war recovery. New York Times

Slovak leader Robert Fico has made Ukraine his ‘enemy.’ Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has escalated his pro-Russian stance, targeting pro-European activists while facing mass protests. On Jan. 31, he accused members of the Peace for Ukraine NGO of plotting a coup with Ukrainian intelligence, citing a 2023 photo as evidence. The image, taken at a public event, shows NGO co-founder Lucia Stasselova with a Georgian soldier who was visiting Slovakia. Despite the flimsy nature of the claim, Fico has used it to discredit growing opposition to his leadership. His rhetoric follows a controversial December 2024 trip to Moscow, where he met Vladimir Putin. On Jan. 24, nearly 100,000 Slovaks demonstrated, reaffirming their pro-European stance. More protests followed on Feb. 7 amid rising concerns that Fico’s government could push Slovakia toward leaving the European Union. His ally, Tibor Gašpar, recently suggested keeping the exit option open after meeting Russian officials in Moscow, alarming opposition leaders and European diplomats. Le Monde

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, Jan. 7-Sunday, Jan. 9. SUNDAY–Russia relies on North Korea and other U.S. adversaries to mitigate labor and resource shortages affecting its economy and war effort. The influx of North Korean workers into Russia violates United Nations Security Council Resolution 2397, which Russia itself supported in 2017. German authorities failed to intercept suspected Russian reconnaissance drones near a military base training Ukrainian forces in January. Russia is using technological advancements from its Ukraine war experience to enhance hybrid operations against NATO states. SATURDAY–Russia is increasing its military capabilities, including force generation and defense production, signaling no interest in peace negotiations with Ukraine. Russia may be supplying North Korea with drone and missile technology in exchange for North Korean troops fighting in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces may be shifting from Kurakhove to Toretsk to support potential offensives toward Kostyantynivka later in 2025. FRIDAY–Ukrainian forces made marginal advances near Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The Kremlin continues to downplay the economic toll of its war against Ukraine, citing misleading growth figures while ignoring inflation and labor shortages. Ukraine is expanding its drone production and battlefield effectiveness but acknowledges that manpower shortages hinder efforts to halt Russian advances. Syria’s interim defense minister signaled openness to Russia keeping its military bases if Syria gains benefits. Azerbaijan is preparing legal action against Russia over the downing of an Azerbaijani Airlines plane. Ukraine appointed Lieutenant General Yevhen Moysiuk and Captain Valeriy Churkin as deputy defense ministers to focus on mobilization and defense innovations.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast near Chasiv Yar and Vovchansk. Russian forces gained ground near Kupyansk, Lyman, Borova, Pokrovsk, Velyka Novosilka, and Toretsk. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War Saturday-Institute for the Study of War Friday-Institute for the Study of War

AMERICAS

US spy planes hunt for intel on Mexican drug cartels as surveillance flights surge near border.  The U.S. military has significantly escalated its surveillance operations targeting Mexican drug cartels, conducting at least 18 spy plane missions along the southwestern U.S. border and in international airspace near Baja, Mexico. This marks a major shift in national security priorities as President Trump directs the military to play a more active role in border security and counternarcotics efforts. The deployment includes advanced surveillance aircraft such as Navy P-8s, U-2 spy planes, and RC-135 Rivet Joint aircraft, capable of collecting deep intelligence within Mexico. The intelligence gathered could be used to justify further foreign terrorist designations or assist the Mexican military in targeting cartel operations. However, concerns are rising over the potential for direct U.S. military action, which could violate Mexican sovereignty and strain diplomatic relations. Trump has also ordered additional troops to the border, signaling a broader militarization of counternarcotics efforts that were traditionally led by law enforcement agencies.  CNN

Musk will find billions in Pentagon waste, Trump says.  President Donald Trump has appointed Elon Musk to lead an audit of the Pentagon, expressing expectations during a Superbowl interview that Musk will uncover "hundreds of billions of dollars of fraud and abuse" within the Department of Defense. This initiative is part of a broader effort to reduce the size of the federal workforce and eliminate wasteful spending. Critics, however, argue that such actions may be illegal, risk exposing classified information, and effectively dismantle entire agencies without congressional approval. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz highlighted the Pentagon's shipbuilding processes as a potential focus for reform, noting that projects often "cost too much, take too long, and deliver too little to the soldiers."  Reuters  Financial Times

Senate Republicans want to spend $150 billion more for defense. The Senate Budget Committee has released a budget plan to add $150 billion in new funds for defense.  A summary of the bill lists these priorities: maintaining military readiness; expand the Navy and strengthening the shipbuilding industrial base; build an air and missile defense for the U.S., called “Iron Dome for America” — and investments in the nuclear system. Breaking Defense   

Trump’s determination to transform the world order delights some, unnerves others. President Trump’s sprint to change the world has disrupted foreign and domestic economies. For his supporters, Trump is keeping his campaign to cut wasteful spending and fight the “deep state.’’ But CEOs questioned by the Wall Street Journal yearn for stability.  Lawmakers say their offices have been flooded with calls from voters protesting Elon Musk’s role.  Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R., Alaska) wrote on social media that the Senate phone system has been receiving around 1,600 calls a minute, compared to the 40 calls a minute it usually gets.  The Journal recounts the narrative of the new administration’s first days. Wall Street Journal

Will the Supreme Court go along with PresidentDonald Trump's dramatic assertions of power? Dozens of lawsuits prompted by President Donald Trump's actions on immigration, federal workforce protections and Elon Musk’S DOGE team are grinding through lower courts.  The Supreme Court must rule on many of them.  Lawyers and professors weigh in on the possible outcomes. Reuters

Is DOGE a threat to national security? Elon Musk’s young unvetted, uncleared team, calling themselves the Department of Government Efficiency, are a “national security nightmare,” argue James Goldgeir, professor of international relations at American University, and Elizabeth N. Saunders, professor of political science at Columbia University.   They contend that American adversaries see the DOGE team’s foray into bureaucracies an “espionage and blackmail bonanza.” Moreover, allied governments are likely to approach the U.S. with extreme care. Foreign Affairs

Musk Team’s to plunge into the Treasury payment system. Elon Musk’s DOGE team is due to travel to Parkersburg, West Virginia, this week in order to get read-only access to the US government’s central accounting system, Bloomberg reported. The team will see some of the government’s most sensitive financial data, even though a federal judge restricted Musk’s team’s access to Treasury’s payment systems, in a lawsuit brought by unions and a retiree group.  New York Times New York Times Wall Street Journal  Bloomberg

Company:  DOGE access to payments presents ‘insider threat.’ Booz Allen Hamilton, a large federal contractor that runs a threat intelligence center for Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, has warned Treasury that giving DOGE access to a sensitive payment network represented an “unprecedented insider threat risk,” according to The Washington Post.  Access to the payment network should be “immediately” suspended, the warning said.  Treasury officials responded by firing the person who issued the warning. Washington Post 

Some DOGE agents removed from sensitive personnel systems over security fears. Several agents of Elon Musk’s U.S. DOGE Service were removed from sensitive personnel databases within the Office of Personnel Management after a Washington Post report.  Musk deputies swore they would wipe out 70 percent of the staff. Washington Post

Musk aims to slash federal work force. Elon Musk’s role is expanding fast.  In the first three weeks of the new administration, Musk’s team has gotten inside at least 17 federal agencies, according to The New York Times. His shock and awe approach resembles when he took over Twitter in late 2022:  he got rid of thousands of workers, closed offices and slashed spending. The difference is, he doesn’t own the federal government.  Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer calls his work “a hostile takeover.” But it’s still a takeover. New York Times Wall Street Journal Washington Post

U.S. tariffs to be levied Monday on steel and aluminum. President Trump said that he plans to impose 25% tariffs Monday on imports of steel and aluminum.  He has also said that the U.S. would impose tariffs on computer chips, pharmaceuticals, copper, oil and gas imports as soon as mid-February. Wall Street Journal 

US and China trade war looms. Chinese tariffs on $14 billion of American exports land Monday, reciprocating for new U.S. tariffs of an extra 10 per cent tariff on Chinese goods. Beijing’s duties of 10 to 15 per cent duties target U.S. energy exports and farm equipment.  Financial Times

Rubio’s first overseas trip aims to please Trump. Secretary of State Marco Rubio an unapologetic advocate of the Trump administration’s hardline policies at nearly every stop in his six-day inaugural trip to Central America and the Caribbean. Wall Street Journal  

Trump to revoke Biden’s security clearance.  “Joe, you’re fired. Make America Great Again!” President Donald Trump wrote on social media. He said there was “no need” for former President Joe Biden to have access to classified information. New York Times Bloomberg

A Russian filmmaker with Kremlin ties paid Kash Patel.  Kash Patel, President Donald Trump’s nominee to be FBI director, was paid $25,000 last year by a film company owned by a Russian national who also holds U.S. citizenship and has produced programs promoting “deep state” conspiracy theories and anti-Western views advanced by the Kremlin.   Washington Post

Trump administration approves $7.4 billion arms sales to Israel, flouting Congress. The Trump administration approved a $7.4 billion arms deal with Israel on Friday, including $6.75 billion for munitions and guidance kits (with Boeing as the main contractor) and $660 million for Hellfire missiles (led by Lockheed Martin). The sale proceeded despite opposition from Democratic lawmakers, who requested a pause for further review. Representative Gregory Meeks, a top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, criticized the move, stating it bypassed congressional oversight and showed disrespect for the legislative process. The White House did not provide justification or documentation before finalizing the deal. The decision coincided with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, where he met with Trump and other U.S. officials. Trump has previously bypassed Congress on weapons sales, notably in 2019, when he declared a national emergency to approve $8 billion in arms sales to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan, despite human rights concerns. Reuters The Guardian Times of Israel  

Trudeau overheard saying Trump is dead serious about making Canada the 51st state. “I suggest that not only does the Trump administration know how many critical minerals we have, but that may be even why they keep talking about absorbing us and making us the 51st state,” Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau told a gathering of company executives and business leaders in Toronto, according to people in the room who listened to his comments.  Associated Press  New York Times  Wall Street Journal Reuters Reuters   Bloomberg New York Times

The Pro-American Panama Leader Standing Between Trump and the Canal. U.S.-Panama tensions have escalated after President Donald Trump postponed a call with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino amid disputes over the Panama Canal. Trump has floated a potential U.S. takeover, claiming Panama grants unfair access to Chinese vessels. Mulino, a pro-American conservative, firmly rejects the idea, calling it a violation of sovereignty: “For 25 years, we have managed and expanded it responsibly.” Panama, reliant on the U.S. for trade and security, has sought to balance cooperation with resistance, offering U.S. naval priority access while rejecting forced concessions. The dispute threatens Panama’s economy, where 4% of global trade passes through the canal. Wall Street Journal Reuters

US defense secretary says Trump backs of AUKUS pact. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has confirmed that President Donald Trump supports the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal and recognizes the “importance of the defense industrial base.” His remarks came during a meeting in Washington with Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, during which Australia’s first $500 million payment under the pact was acknowledged. Under AUKUS, Canberra will pay the U.S. $3 billion to strengthen its submarine industry. In return, Washington will sell Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines to Australia in the early 2030s, while Britain and Australia will jointly develop a new AUKUS-class submarine. Hegseth assured that the U.S. aims to deliver the submarines on schedule, stating that Trump is committed to cutting red tape and supporting allies. Marles expressed satisfaction with the progress in submarine production and sustainment. The meeting also covered Indo-Pacific security and the expanding U.S. military presence in Australia, amid shared concerns over China’s growing influence. AUKUS, formed in 2021, is a trilateral security pact between Australia, the U.S., and the UK, focusing on nuclear-powered submarines and advanced military technology to counter regional threats. Reuters Australian Broadcasting Corporation 

From Oligarchs to Cartels: The U.S. Reshapes Global Law Enforcement. U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi has shut down the KleptoCapture task force, which targeted Russian oligarchs' assets, signaling a shift in law enforcement priorities under President Donald Trump. The Biden-era unit seized nearly $700 million and charged over 70 individuals but will now be replaced by a focus on eliminating drug cartels. Existing cases will continue, but new Russia-related sanctions enforcement will slow. Bondi also ended the Kleptocracy Asset Recovery Initiative and the Foreign Influence Task Force. Critics warn this weakens anti-corruption efforts, but Ukrainian officials remain hopeful for future discussions on frozen Russian assets. RFE/RL

Pentagon doubles the number of news outlets to 'rotate' out from office space. The Pentagon has expanded its media rotation policy, requiring CNN, The Washington Post, The Hill, and The War Zone to vacate their office spaces, following last week’s order affecting The New York Times, NBC News, Politico, and NPR. Incoming new outlets, mostly conservative leaning, include The New York Post, Breitbart, Newsmax, and One America News Network. The Defense Department says the move broadens media access, but the Pentagon Press Association expressed shock and disappointment. Affected outlets remain in the Pentagon Press Corps but will lose dedicated workspaces. The changes come weeks after President Donald Trump’s return to office. Reuters

EUROPE

Russia’s fears over ex-Soviet nations laid bare in leaked paper. A leaked Russian government report reveals Moscow’s concern over losing influence in former Soviet states due to Western pressure and sanctions. Presented by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin last April, the report concedes that sanctions have driven a wedge between Russia and its closest trade partners, benefiting Central Asian countries that now seek integration without Moscow. Kazakhstan, for example, has distanced itself, complying with sanctions and rejecting Russia’s territorial claims in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan has aligned closely with Moscow, allegedly aiding sanctions evasion. Russia hopes to form a Eurasian trade bloc to counter Western and Chinese influence but faces obstacles as allies exploit its economic weakness. The report acknowledges that victory in Ukraine alone won’t restore Russia’s global standing. Former allies are moving toward Western education and trade networks, with some joining alternative regional groups. Belarus remains Russia’s strongest partner, but even the Eurasian Economic Union faces systemic challenges due to sanctions and currency restrictions. Financial Times

Trump’s Team Takes Its Fight to a Wary Europe. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth are in Europe this week for high-level meetings with European Union and NATO leaders, tackling disputes over tech regulation, trade, and military spending. Trump has called U.S.-EU trade an "atrocity" and plans 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, which could harm European industries. Tech policy is a major flashpoint, with Trump-backed figures like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg pushing back against EU regulations targeting big U.S. firms. Vance suggested linking NATO support to European respect for "American values" on free speech. Trump has also withdrawn from a global tax agreement, threatening retaliation against European digital taxes. Wall Street Journal

Germany’s election campaign is creating a security risk. Germany’s Feb. 23 election will likely end Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s tenure, offering a moment to assess his 2022 “Zeitenwende” speech, which promised a strategic shift in security and foreign policy. While Germany is moving closer to meeting NATO’s target of spending 2% of GDP and has become Europe’s largest provider of military aid to Ukraine, structural reforms remain incomplete. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has warned Germany must be “war-capable” by 2030, but military expansion and conscription face political hurdles. “The moment the Russians withdrew from Kyiv and the fighting was restricted to the east of Ukraine, everything went back to peacetime mode,” says Carlo Masala, a professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich. With U.S. President Donald Trump back in power, pressure is mounting for Germany to increase military spending and prepare for higher tariffs, since Germany runs the largest trade surplus with America among the 27 European Union countries. Friedrich Merz, the likely next chancellor, has criticized Scholz’s policies as insufficient and proposed creating a U.S.-style national security council. However, Germany’s election campaign has largely ignored foreign policy, raising concerns that the country is unprepared for geopolitical challenges, including a possible deal between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin over the heads of Europeans and possible U.S. demands that German soldiers enforce a peace agreement. The Economist

Germany reportedly suspects Russia after drone sightings over key airbase. Germany is investigating suspected Russian espionage after six drone sightings over the Schwesing airbase, where Ukrainian troops train on Patriot missile systems. Between Jan. 9 and 29, unidentified drones repeatedly breached restricted airspace. Despite deploying electronic countermeasures, the Bundeswehr failed to intercept or track the drones. Military officials believe they were possibly launched from ships in the North or Baltic seas. The incidents expose weaknesses in Germany’s drone defenses, prompting Berlin to deploy additional detection and jamming equipment. Similar drone activity was recently observed over the U.S. Ramstein airbase, leading to a proposed law allowing Bundeswehr to shoot down drones. Politico EU

German chancellor candidates clash on Trump, the far-right, and NATO. In a debate on Sunday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Christian Democratic Union challenger Friedrich Merz clashed over NATO spending, the far-right AfD, and Donald Trump. Scholz warned the European Union could respond to U.S. tariffs "within an hour" and accused Merz of economic mismanagement. Merz, leading in polls, opposed tax hikes to meet NATO’s 2% GDP target and suggested reforming Germany’s debt brake. Trump’s demand for 5% GDP in defense spending loomed over the debate. Scholz accused Merz of being open to working with AfD, which Merz denied, instead blaming Scholz’s policies for the far-right’s rise. The election is Feb. 23. Reuters

Greenland party says US interest boosts independence bid in talks with Denmark. Greenland will hold parliamentary elections on March 11, with independence from Denmark as a top issue. The pro-independence Naleraq party sees renewed U.S. interest, particularly President Donald Trump’s remarks about Greenland’s strategic value, as a boost for its cause. Naleraq aims to invoke a 2009 law allowing independence negotiations with Denmark, which would require Danish parliamentary approval and a Greenlandic referendum. Greenland’s ruling Siumut party has also pledged a vote on independence after the election. Meanwhile, Denmark has pledged $2 billion to strengthen its military presence in Greenland amid criticism of past neglect. Naleraq envisions an independent Greenland with a U.S. defense agreement and "free association" status, possibly with Denmark or the U.S. Danish public opinion remains opposed to selling Greenland, despite broad support for Greenlanders' right to self-determination. Greenland was a Danish colony until 1953, when it officially became part of Denmark. It gained more autonomy in 1979 with the establishment of its parliament. "It's about time that we move on and see that independence is the way forward for the Greenlandic people," said Juno Berthelsen, a Naleraq party candidate. Reuters

Russia's options to rebuild its military are knotty. Russia faces four options for rebuilding its military after heavy losses in Ukraine, according to a RAND Corp. study. The first is the "Shoigu plan," named for former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. It seeks to restore pre-war military strength by expanding forces and modernizing equipment. This assumes Russia’s forces were not structurally flawed but poorly led. The second option involves completing reforms started in 2008, emphasizing hybrid warfare with cyber operations and private military groups, though it may lack sufficient ground forces. The third, most radical option would be overhauling the military by adopting Western-style tactics and decentralizing command. Lastly, the easiest yet most backward option is reverting to a Soviet-style mass army, prioritizing numbers and firepower. RAND expects a mix of these approaches, depending on how the war on Ukraine ends, economic strength, and Russia’s ability to acquire advanced technology. If Russia adopts a mass army, NATO may face new challenges in countering a force designed for attrition rather than maneuver warfare. Business Insider

Baltic Sea nations eye new powers to seize Russia’s shadow fleet. Baltic Sea nations are considering new ways to seize Russia’s “shadow fleet” oil tankers, following Finland’s December seizure of a suspected vessel involved in cable sabotage. Officials from Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia are exploring legal grounds such as environmental threats, piracy laws, and insurance requirements to justify detaining these ships. If international law falls short, they may draft national laws allowing broader enforcement at sea. The move reflects frustration over Russia’s ability to bypass Western sanctions and the growing concern about attacks on undersea infrastructure. Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna noted that nearly 50 percent of sanctioned Russian oil shipments pass through the Gulf of Finland. Lithuanian Energy Minister Žygimantas Vaičiūnas suggested the EU could clarify how international law applies to these cases. With 348 shadow-fleet vessels accounting for 40 percent of Russia’s oil exports last year, Baltic states are pushing for coordinated European action to curb Moscow’s revenue. Politico EU Politico EU

3 Baltic states disconnect from the Soviet-era grid to merge with the European energy system. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania officially disconnected from the Soviet-era power grid on Saturday, cutting their last energy ties with Russia and Belarus. The move, decades after the Soviet Union’s collapse, is geopolitical and symbolic. For 24 hours, the Baltic states operated independently before merging with Europe’s energy network on Sunday through links with Finland, Sweden, and Poland. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda called it the final step in eliminating reliance on Russian energy. Security measures were heightened to prevent disruptions. European leaders marked the transition at a Sunday night ceremony in Vilnius. Associated Press Bloomberg

Europe’s emboldened far right lauds Trump at Madrid rally. At a "Make Europe Great Again" rally in Madrid on Saturday, far-right European leaders praised US President Donald Trump's early policies, urging the European Union to follow suit. Viktor Orbán called Trump’s return a “tornado” reshaping global politics. Marine Le Pen warned of a pivotal moment, criticizing EU inaction. Leaders, including Geert Wilders and Matteo Salvini, attacked immigration, green policies, and "woke" ideologies while endorsing Trump’s stance on gender. They avoided discussing Trump’s trade threats and defense spending demands. Czech leader Andrej Babiš denounced the EU’s Green Deal. Some referenced Spain’s medieval conquest as a model for Europe’s future direction. Financial Times

Slovaks protest for the second time in two weeks against PM Fico. Tens of thousands protested in Slovakia on Friday, opposing Prime Minister Robert Fico’s shift toward Russia. Bratislava's Freedom Square crowds numbered approximately 45,000, slightly below a previous protest’s 60,000. Demonstrations spread nationwide, with chants calling Fico a "Russian agent." His government claims opponents seek to incite chaos, and Fico has rejected resignation calls. Protests intensified after his December meeting with Vladimir Putin. While Fico criticizes European Union policies, he insists Slovakia remains aligned with NATO and the EU. His government is considering new measures to curb protests. Reuters

In One of Europe’s Surging Economies, a Strongman Leader Is Feeling the Pinch. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic faces his most severe political crisis in over a decade, despite strong economic growth. Months of student-led protests erupted after 15 people died in a railway station collapse, blamed on corruption. Vucic’s attempts to quell dissent, including offering subsidized housing loans, failed. Protesters, spanning urban youth and rural supporters, cite government corruption, media dominance, and mismanagement. The crisis has polarized Serbia, with Vucic retaining core support but facing mounting opposition. While student demands focus on accountability rather than his removal, discontent continues, recalling the public unrest that led to Slobodan Milosevic’s downfall in 2000. New York Times

Russia opens criminal case over alleged assault involving British embassy employee. Russian authorities said Friday that they have opened a criminal case over an alleged assault on a journalist at Moscow’s Vnukovo airport by a man believed to be a British embassy employee. The journalist, a 23-year-old woman, claimed she was pushed while trying to interview British diplomats, suffering “physical and moral injury.” Russia’s interior ministry accused the British embassy of refusing to cooperate and vowed punishment regardless of diplomatic status. Britain dismissed the case as a Kremlin intimidation tactic aimed at undermining UK diplomats and diverting attention from Russia’s violations of international law. The row follows Britain’s expulsion of a Russian diplomat in response to Moscow’s removal of a British envoy in November, amid deteriorating relations since Russia’s war on Ukraine. Separately, Russia and France are clashing over journalist accreditations. Reuters

Kosovo's ruling party set to come first in election. Kosovo’s ruling Vetevendosje party is set to win Sunday’s parliamentary election but will need a coalition to govern, according to exit polls and a party vote count. Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s party, which won over 50% in 2021, is projected to secure around 38-40% this time. The opposition Democratic Party of Kosovo is expected to place second with about 22%, followed by the Democratic League of Kosovo at 20%. Kurti, who has refused to form a coalition unless winning outright, has strengthened government control in ethnic Serb areas but faces criticism over strained European Union and U.S. ties. Reuters Politico EU

THE MIDDLE EAST

Trump, set to meet with Middle Eastern leaders, committed to ‘buying and owning Gaza.’ U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday asserted that he is “committed to buying and owning Gaza,” suggesting that while the U.S. would take control, parts of it could be rebuilt by other Middle Eastern states. Speaking aboard Air Force One, he described Gaza as a "demolition site" and emphasized the importance of ensuring that Hamas would not return. His comments sparked immediate backlash, with Hamas rejecting the idea, calling the war-torn enclave “an integral part of our occupied Palestinian land.” Trump's proposal lacked clarity on the future of Palestinians affected by the ongoing war and raised questions about the legal basis for U.S. control of Gaza. Israeli President Isaac Herzog confirmed that Trump planned meetings with key Arab leaders, including Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Jordan’s King Abdullah. However, Saudi Arabia and other world leaders have outright rejected the proposal. King Abdullah is expected to tell Trump during their February 11 meeting that the plan would destabilize the region and threaten Jordan’s peace with Israel. The White House has not commented on Trump’s statements, and officials in Egypt and Saudi Arabia have yet to respond. The proposal has drawn global criticism, with many viewing it as unfeasible and inflammatory. Reuters Washington Post Al Jazeera Times of Israel 

Saudi Arabia reiterates condemnation of Gaza resettlement suggestions. In a biting statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency on Sunday, Riyadh strongly rejected Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposal to resettle Palestinians from Gaza, stressing that Palestinians have the right to their land, and are “not intruders or immigrants to it who can be expelled.” The statement also reinforced Saudi support for an independent Palestinian state. Netanyahu’s comments, made last week during an interview, proposed the idea of creating a Palestinian state on Saudi soil. His remarks were widely condemned, including by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Jordan, and the Arab League. Abu Dhabi called Saudi sovereignty a "red line" that must not be violated. The controversy comes amid similar suggestions from U.S. President Donald Trump, who proposed that Washington could take over Gaza and relocate Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan—an idea swiftly rejected by both countries and Saudi Arabia. Egypt and Jordan’s leaders are heading to Washington this week to discuss Gaza and Palestinian issues, while Saudi Arabia reaffirmed its stance that any normalization with Israel must include an independent Palestinian state. An Arab summit on the Palestinian issue will be held in Cairo on February 27. Bloomberg

The challenges facing Syria’s new leadership. Two months after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Syria remains in crisis, with people suffering severe economic struggles, power shortages, and uncertainty over the new government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa. While there is a near-tangible relief in Damascus, evidenced by the removal of Assad’s propaganda and oppressive security forces, public services and the economy remain in dire condition. Syria’s economy has contracted by 85%, with over 80% of Syrians living in poverty. Inflation is rampant, and even high-skilled professionals earn as little as $25 per month. The government’s immediate priority is securing energy, food, and funding to prevent further instability, but Western sanctions remain a major obstacle. While some restrictions have been lifted for humanitarian aid, the U.S. and E.U. demand democratic reforms before easing further sanctions. Sharaa’s government has implemented economic reforms, such as lifting the ban on foreign currency, which has stabilized the exchange rate. Public-sector layoffs—aimed at reducing corruption—have sparked protests among fired employees; many government jobs were ghost positions, or paid through political favoritism, and those dismissed workers are now up in arms, even as critics condemn them for taking bribes, and not doing any actual work. The new government has yet to present a clear political vision, raising concerns over exclusion of minorities. While seeking international recognition, Sharaa’s focus on foreign diplomacy over domestic issues has frustrated Syrians. The E.U. hinted at easing sanctions if meaningful reforms are made, but citizens remain anxious about Damascus’ future. Washington Post

Delegation from global chemical weapons watchdog met with Syria’s new government.  A delegation from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) arrived in Damascus over the weekend for talks with Syria’s new leadership, marking the first engagement since Bashar al-Assad’s ouster in December. The OPCW had previously found evidence of chemical weapons use by Assad’s government during Syria’s 14-year civil war. Syria joined the OPCW in 2013 to avoid the threat of airstrikes in retaliation for a chemical attack near Damascus, though Assad denied responsibility. The organization also confirmed Islamic State’s use of mustard gas in Syria. OPCW Director-General Fernando Arias described the discussions with President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani as "long, productive, and open." The focus was on Syria’s obligations under the Chemical Weapons Convention and the elimination of any remaining stockpiles. The fall of Assad triggered an emergency OPCW meeting, urging Syria’s new rulers to comply with chemical weapons regulations. Concerns were raised that Israeli airstrikes on former Syrian military sites might have caused toxic contamination or destroyed evidence. The OPCW, created in 1997, aims to eliminate all chemical weapons and won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2013 for its efforts. Associated Press VOA UN News  

Israeli troops facing legal risks abroad in wake of Gaza conflict. Israeli soldiers and reservists are reconsidering their post-service travel plans due to global indignation and growing international legal threats related to the war in Gaza. Concerns stem from universal jurisdiction laws, which allow foreign courts to prosecute individuals for war crimes, even if they are not citizens of that country. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Israeli leaders, and pro-Palestinian organizations have filed legal complaints against individual soldiers in Brazil, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Argentina, Sweden, and Spain. One reservist, 23-year-old Yuval Vagdani, fled Brazil last month after a court ordered an investigation into his military actions in Gaza. To mitigate risks, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has issued new regulations restricting soldiers' photos in media, while legal organizations such as El Hadegel and Shurat Hadin advise troops to delete social media posts showing them in uniform and carry contact details for Israeli consulates. Israel's foreign ministry downplays the risk, calling it a PR stunt with no legal results, but insurance companies now offer coverage for legal consultations in case of arrest abroad. As the global backlash against the state’s military actions grows, young Israelis continue to become more cautious about international travel. Bloomberg

UN says fragile Gaza ceasefire has averted famine, but any truce collapse brings danger. The threat of famine in Gaza has been mostly averted due to a surge in humanitarian aid during the ongoing ceasefire, according to U.N. humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher. However, he warned on Sunday, famine-like conditions could quickly return if the truce collapses. Since the ceasefire began on January 19, over 12,600 aid trucks have entered Gaza, significantly increasing the flow of food, medicine, and essential supplies. Israel committed to allowing 600 aid trucks per day, following months of delays and insecurity that had severely restricted deliveries. Despite the relief, conditions remain dire. Most of Gaza’s 2 million residents are displaced, and there is still an urgent need for medical supplies, food, and tents to shelter returning families, particularly in devastated northern Gaza. After his visit to the enclave, Fletcher described the destruction in Gaza’s north as overwhelming, with schools, hospitals, and homes indistinguishable from rubble. He witnessed people searching for their homes and retrieving bodies amid the ruins. Fletcher called on both Hamas and Israel to uphold the ceasefire. Associated Press 

Israel releases scores of Palestinian prisoners, as haggard Israeli hostages are freed from Gaza. In the fifth round of hostage exchanges between Israel and Hamas over the weekend, three Israeli hostages and 183 Palestinian prisoners were released. The hostages, Ohad Ben Ami, Eli Sharabi, and Or Levy, appeared frail and thin, sparking outrage in Israel, with officials calling their condition “shocking.” The Palestinian prisoners, some serving life sentences, were also described as emaciated and in poor health, with reports surfacing of abuse and starvation in Israeli detention centers. Some needed to be carried upon release, further fueling concerns over mistreatment. 73 Israeli hostages are still in captivity; Hamas has now freed 16 as part of the ceasefire deal, though eight of those promised for release are confirmed dead. Negotiations for an extended ceasefire remain uncertain, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces political pressure. His finance minister has threatened to resign if the truce continues. Talks in Doha aim to finalize the next phase, but Israel remains wary of Hamas' conditions, including a full military withdrawal from Gaza. Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues to worsen. CNN BBC The Guardian New York Times 

Israeli West Bank raid leaves two Palestinian women dead. Israeli forces killed two Palestinian women, including a pregnant 23-year-old, during military raids in the occupied West Bank, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. In Nur Shams, Israeli troops shot Sundos Jamal Mohammed Shalabi, who was eight months pregnant; her unborn child did not survive, and her husband was critically wounded. The Israeli military said it is investigating the incident. In a separate case, a 21-year-old woman was shot and killed when Israeli forces breached a house while searching for a militant; the military claimed that residents were asked to leave, and that the woman was shot after force was used to enter the building. The Israeli military has expanded its counter-terrorism operations in the northern West Bank, particularly in Nur Shams, Tulkarm, Al Faraa, and Tamun, targeting suspected militants. The campaign, launched after the ceasefire in Gaza, is part of Israel’s broader strategy against Iran-backed groups. The Palestinian Authority calls this one of the most destructive Israeli campaigns in recent memory, with dozens of Palestinians killed and thousands displaced. Israel maintains it is targeting militants but acknowledges civilian casualties. Reuters Al Jazeera France 24   

Lebanon establishes its first government in over 2 years. Lebanon has formed a new government under Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, following weeks of negotiations, as well as U.S. intervention, aimed at limiting Hezbollah’s influence. The 24-member cabinet will focus on financial reforms, reconstruction, and the execution of a U.N. resolution to stabilize the Lebanese Israeli border. Talks stalled over the appointment of Shi’ite ministers, typically chosen by Hezbollah and its ally, Amal. The U.S. opposed Hezbollah’s involvement, with Deputy Middle East Envoy Morgan Ortagus calling it a "red line" and praising Israel’s military actions against the group. Despite this, Amal chose four cabinet positions, including Finance Minister Yassin Jaber, and approved a fifth. The new government must now draft a policy statement outlining its priorities before seeking a vote of confidence in parliament. The government’s formation follows major shifts in Lebanon’s political landscape, including the election of U.S.-backed President Joseph Aoun and the recent Israeli military campaign against Hezbollah. The ouster of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, a key Hezbollah ally, further weakened the group’s position. The cabinet’s formation is seen as a step toward securing international reconstruction funds, but Hezbollah’s continued role in Lebanon’s politics remains a point of contention. CNN Associated Press Le Monde  Al Jazeera 

ASIA & OCEANIA

China’s Strategy in Trade War: Threaten U.S. Tech Companies. China is escalating pressure on U.S. tech firms ahead of negotiations with President Donald Trump by launching antitrust probes into companies like Nvidia and Google. Beijing is leveraging regulatory tools, including its 2020 "unreliable entity list" and stricter antitrust laws, to counter recent U.S. tariffs and export controls. Apple, Broadcom, and Synopsys are also under scrutiny, with China delaying approval of a $35 billion Synopsys deal. Some U.S. firms fear Beijing’s moves could deter investment, while China sees them as bargaining chips. Past trade conflicts, including Qualcomm’s failed NXP merger, show how regulatory actions can disrupt major tech deals. Wall Street Journal

Xi Jinping swings his ‘assassin’s mace’ of economic warfare. Following Donald Trump’s Feb. 4 order imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, Xi Jinping retaliated by tightening export controls on critical rare metals like gallium, germanium, and tungsten. These materials are essential for advanced semiconductors, weapons, and AI chips. China’s strategy is to leverage its dominance in key supply chains as an economic weapon, which has alarmed Western governments. While China aims to counterbalance U.S. sanctions, its increasing restrictions could backfire, pushing countries to diversify supply chains. The U.S. and its allies are already working on alternative sourcing, mirroring China’s past responses to Western financial sanctions. The Economist

India's Modi to meet Trump with planned tariff concessions, sources say. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is preparing tariff cuts in at least a dozen sectors, including electronics, medical equipment, and chemicals, ahead of his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, sources told Reuters. India hopes to boost U.S. exports and avoid retaliatory tariffs, particularly Trump’s planned 25% duty on steel and aluminum. Bilateral trade exceeded $118 billion in 2023-24, with India holding a $32 billion surplus. Modi called the visit an opportunity to "elevate and deepen" ties in trade, defense, and energy. Talks may lead to a mini trade deal, but tensions over recent Indian deportations from the U.S. linger. Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vows to develop nuclear forces further. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has condemned the growing U.S.-South Korea-Japan security alliance, calling it a threat and vowing to expand his nuclear arsenal. Speaking on Saturday, he framed North Korea’s nuclear weapons as essential for combat rather than negotiation. His remarks suggest he is unlikely to engage with President Donald Trump’s overtures to resume diplomacy. Meanwhile, Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reaffirmed their commitment to North Korea’s denuclearization. Kim also reiterated his support for Russia’s war on Ukraine. South Korea suspects North Korea is preparing to send more troops to assist Russian forces. Reuters Associated Press Reuters

Can China fill the US-sized void in the Pacific after Trump’s foreign aid freeze? Following President Donald Trump’s freeze on USAID funding, suspending over $60 billion in aid, China is expected to expand its influence in the Pacific through economic and climate projects. Analysts suggest Beijing’s approach, which remains consistent across election cycles, could make it a more predictable partner. While U.S. aid cuts raise concerns, some argue they expose flaws in Western assistance, which often prioritizes donor interests. Pacific nations will likely engage with China to meet development needs but will not abandon traditional U.S. ties. Some view USAID’s reduction as beneficial, arguing it has been used for political influence in the past. South China Morning Post 

Philippines, Canada in final negotiations for defense pact to boost joint military exercises. Canada and the Philippines are finalizing a defense pact to expand joint military drills amid growing tensions with China in the South China Sea. Canadian Ambassador David Hartman said the agreement, expected soon, would enhance military cooperation and training. Canada has been increasing its Indo-Pacific presence and previously signed a defense cooperation deal with the Philippines, including satellite-based vessel tracking. The Philippines has similar agreements with the U.S., Australia, and Japan, and is negotiating with France and New Zealand. China has reacted by deploying naval patrols, but Canada and the Philippines vow to uphold maritime law in contested waters. Associated Press 

After meeting Trump, Japan PM Ishiba voiced optimism about averting tariffs. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expressed optimism that Japan could avoid U.S. tariffs after meeting with President Donald Trump on Friday. Ishiba noted that Japan has been the largest investor in the U.S. for five years and is creating American jobs. While auto tariffs were not specifically discussed, he believes Japan’s investments may shield it from new trade measures. Ishiba highlighted potential Japanese investments in liquefied natural gas, steel, AI, and autos. He also assured that Nippon Steel’s investment in U.S. Steel would maintain American management and workforce. He said public approval would be required to increase Japan’s military budget. Reuters 

South Korea indicts 63 over courthouse raid by supporters of impeached Yoon. South Korean prosecutors on Monday indicted 63 people for their involvement in violent protests at the Seoul Western District Court last month, following the issuance of an arrest warrant for President Yoon Suk Yeol over his failed martial law attempt. One individual was indicted without detention. Among the indicted, 49 were charged with breaking into the courthouse, committing violence, and vandalism. Specific charges include intrusion (39 individuals), property damage (7), attempted arson (1), and attempting to locate the judge’s office (2). Authorities are also investigating eight additional suspects who remain in custody. Prosecutors condemned the incident as a serious crime undermining the rule of law and the judicial system and pledged a strict and thorough investigation in coordination with the police. Yonhap News Agency Reuters 

AFRICA

U.S. warns Rwandan, Congolese officials to de-escalate conflict, threatens sanctions. The U.S. on Friday warned of possible sanctions against officials from Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo ahead of a regional summit aimed at resolving the escalating conflict in eastern Congo. Rwanda-backed M23 rebels have captured Goma, a significant regional capital in Congo’s volatile east, and are advancing further. A U.S. diplomatic note to Kenya, which chairs the East African Community, urged Rwanda to withdraw its military forces and weaponry from Congo, warning of sanctions against uncooperative officials in both governments. Rwanda continues to deny accusations of supporting M23. The U.S. has already sanctioned the Congo River Alliance, a coalition of insurgent groups that includes M23. Despite a declared ceasefire, M23 has continued advancing, seizing a mining town near Bukavu. The U.N. estimates at least 2,800 deaths from recent fighting and warns of rising sexual violence in the region. Reuters

African leaders urge ceasefire, negotiations in turbulent Congo. Leaders from eastern and southern Africa on Saturday called for an immediate ceasefire in eastern Congo while urging Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi to engage in direct negotiations with the M23 rebels, despite his reluctance. The summit, held in Tanzania, brought together members of the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to address the ongoing conflict. Tshisekedi, who participated via videoconference, has consistently refused to negotiate with M23, which he accuses of being backed by Rwanda and exploiting Congo’s mineral wealth. However, the summit’s final communique emphasized the importance of dialogue with all parties involved, including M23. The rebels recently took control of Goma, leading to thousands of deaths and widespread displacement, and continue to push toward Bukavu. Congolese forces, with backing from regional peacekeepers, allied militias, and troops from Burundi, attempt to halt their advance. The summit called for the immediate reopening of Goma’s airport and the removal of foreign armed groups from Congolese territory. A separate regional meeting in Equatorial Guinea reinforced the demand for Rwandan troops to leave Congo and for humanitarian access to be restored. The Congolese government on Sunday announced that it had taken note of the decisions made during the summit. Associated Press Reuters 

Scores of Congolese soldiers to go on trial for murders, looting, and violence. The Congolese military prosecutor's office on Sunday announced that authorities plan to put at least 75 soldiers on trial for deserting their posts amid the advance of Rwanda-backed M23 rebels into South Kivu province, as well as for crimes against civilians, including revolt, murder, looting, and rape. The trials were set to begin on Monday. The soldiers facing trial were arrested after retreating from the frontline in Nyabibwe. Additional troops accused of similar offenses further south may also face prosecution. Reports indicate that deserting soldiers have committed violent crimes, including the killing of 10 civilians in a bar in Kavumu, a town near Bukavu’s airport. Local leaders have raised concerns over ongoing looting by fleeing soldiers, while the provincial army has promised to punish those responsible and urged residents to remain calm. The United Nations has reported serious human rights violations, including executions, gang rape, and sexual slavery, committed by M23 rebels, Congolese soldiers, and pro-government militias following M23’s major offensive in January. Reuters 

Military sources say Sudan will establish a new government after regaining Khartoum. The Sudanese military plans to form a new government once it fully regains control of Khartoum, military sources told Reuters on Sunday. This announcement follows Army Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s statement that a technocratic wartime government will be established. The Sudanese army, struggling against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023, has recently regained ground in Khartoum, and is pushing toward the presidential palace. The RSF, which had proposed forming a rival civilian administration, has been forced to retreat due to the army’s increased air power, as well as reinforcements from allied militias. Burhan described the incoming government as a temporary wartime administration focused on defeating the RSF. He dismissed the possibility of a ceasefire for Ramadan, unless the RSF halts its offensive in Darfur, particularly its attempt to capture the city of al-Fashir. Planned constitutional changes will remove references to civilian or RSF partnerships, consolidating power under the army. The military will appoint a technocratic prime minister, who will then form a cabinet. Burhan also urged members of the civilian Taqadum coalition to renounce the RSF, promising they would be welcomed back into the political process if they did. Reuters 

Trump signs order to sever funding for South Africa amid land policy tensions, ICJ case against Israel. President Donald Trump on Friday signed an executive order cutting U.S. financial aid to South Africa, citing opposition to its land reform policy and its genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. The U.S. had allocated nearly $440 million in aid to South Africa in 2023. The order also includes a plan to prioritize resettling white South African farmers and their families as refugees in the U.S. South Africa’s foreign ministry criticized the move, calling it factually inaccurate and highlighting the irony of prioritizing refugee status for an economically privileged group while denying asylum to others facing hardship. Trump has claimed, without evidence, that South Africa is confiscating land and treating certain groups “very badly.” Billionaire Elon Musk has echoed similar concerns, arguing that white South Africans face "racist ownership laws." President Cyril Ramaphosa defended the land policy, stating it aims to address racial disparities in land ownership and has not involved land confiscation. Washington also cited South Africa’s case against Israel at the ICJ and its ties to Iran as reasons for the executive order. Pretoria has rejected the White House’s stance, with Ramaphosa asserting that his country "will not be bullied." While right-wing groups like AfriForum welcomed Trump’s recognition of injustices against Afrikaners, they opposed the aid withdrawal. AfriForum leaders stated they had never sought sanctions against South Africa and reaffirmed their commitment to staying in the country. Reuters CNN The Guardian BBC France 24 

Thanks, but no thanks: White South Africans, promised resettlement in the US, not interested in leaving their country. South African Afrikaner groups have rejected President Donald Trump’s offer of refugee status and resettlement in the U.S., stating they are committed to staying in South Africa. The offer was included in an executive order Trump signed that also cut U.S. financial aid to the country, citing alleged rights violations against white Afrikaner farmers and the country’s new land expropriation law. Afrikaners, descendants of Dutch, French, and German settlers, make up a small portion of South Africa’s 7% white minority, but still hold a significant share of private farmland. 64% of Blacks in the country live in poverty, compared to 1% of White South Africans, according to a 2021 study by the South Africa Human Rights Commission. Solidarity, an Afrikaner trade union, and AfriForum, a lobby group, strongly opposed the U.S. resettlement plan. Leaders of both organizations reaffirmed their commitment to South Africa, rejecting the idea that Afrikaners need protection abroad. The South African government also criticized Trump’s decision, pointing out that Afrikaners remain among the country’s most economically privileged groups and arguing that his administration ignores asylum seekers facing genuine hardship. While some Afrikaners welcomed Trump’s recognition of their concerns, they stressed that they are not leaving. Associated Press Reuters Al Jazeera 

In Central African Republic, Wagner’s successors are engaged in a reign of terror. The Central African Republic (C.A.R.) has become a hub for Russian mercenary operations, particularly through the Wagner Group and its successor forces. The mercenaries, initially deployed for security and military training, including protection for President Faustin-Archange Touadera, have increasingly engaged in brutal human rights abuses. They have been accused of kidnappings, torture, executions, and sexual violence. Witnesses across C.A.R. continue to come forward with reports of looting, torture, and summary executions. In one case, a man was executed by Russian-speaking white men and hung from a tree. Another victim, Jose Befio, was beheaded, with his mutilated body publicly displayed as a warning. According to Befio’s family members, his three children were abducted by Russian soldiers, held for days, and eventually returned to their homes, with all of their teeth pulled out. Since 2018, Wagner forces have helped Touadera consolidate power, controlling gold and diamond mining, timber, and arms trafficking. Reports from the U.N. and human rights groups document over 362 violent incidents, with at least 786 deaths. Despite evidence, Russia and C.A.R.’s government deny involvement, dismissing allegations as Western propaganda. Wagner was officially disbanded in 2023, but its successor units remain entrenched, with Russia deepening ties with C.A.R. Touadera recently visited Moscow, and a monument was erected in Bangui honoring Wagner’s leaders. With Russia's growing influence and C.A.R.'s dependence on its forces, human rights abuses are expected to continue unchecked. RFE/RL

US aid cuts to Africa may not present an easy win for China in the race to gain influence. President Donald Trump's decision to suspend U.S. foreign aid, particularly through USAID, is expected to create a gap in Africa that China could exploit. However, analysts believe Beijing may not easily replace the influence Washington has built over decades. The U.S. has been a major contributor to healthcare and humanitarian programs across Africa, and this aid freeze has already put thousands of healthcare workers on unpaid leave, with Kenya alone facing job losses for over 30,000 doctors and nurses. One economist called the cuts a "huge gift to China," as USAID funding accounted for a significant portion of government revenues in countries like South Sudan, Sudan, and Somalia. However, China's foreign aid model is different—it primarily focuses on infrastructure projects through loans rather than grants, while U.S. aid has traditionally supported healthcare, education, and governance initiatives. China’s Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) could shift more resources from loans to aid, but experts doubt it can match U.S. programs like PEPFAR in healthcare. China’s strength lies in infrastructure investment, not medical expertise, making it unlikely to fill USAID's gaps. While Beijing’s long-term strategy in Africa includes investments in infrastructure and natural resources, analysts caution that U.S. disengagement does not automatically translate to China’s gain. Other players like the E.U. and Turkey may step in to provide emergency aid where U.S. support is withdrawn. Ultimately, Trump’s decision could reshape Africa’s geopolitical landscape, but China's ability to capitalize on this shift remains uncertain. South China Morning Post 

Gunmen kill 25 civilians in restive Mali. Armed men attacked a convoy of vehicles escorted by Mali’s army on Friday, killing 25 civilians, mostly gold miners, in what is the deadliest attack on civilians in the country this year. The attack occurred about 30 kilometers from Gao, a city in Mali’s northeast where armed groups hostile to the ruling junta operates. The convoy, consisting of about 60 vehicles, was ambushed by unknown assailants, though various militant organizations operate in the region, including the Islamic State, al-Qaeda-linked JNIM, and separatist groups from the Azawad region. The army provided aid to the victims and transported 13 wounded individuals to a hospital in Gao. While four attackers were reportedly injured, military officials did not disclose if there were any army casualties. Mali has been steeped in crisis for over a decade, with relentless militant violence. The military took power in 2020 after ousting the previous government but has struggled to contain escalating attacks by insurgent groups. Associated Press Reuters 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Trump’s AI ambition and China’s DeepSeek overshadow an AI summit in Paris. The Paris AI Action Summit, hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi this week, is focusing on AI governance amid geopolitical tensions. U.S. Vice President JD Vance is attending, while China is sending a high-level envoy, reflecting its growing role. The summit coincides with the rise of China’s DeepSeek chatbot, which has sparked concerns over AI competition and security. President Donald Trump aims to cement U.S. AI dominance while reducing regulations, potentially clashing with EU efforts. Macron seeks a more inclusive AI strategy, but divisions between the U.S., China, and Europe could limit consensus on global AI rules. Associated Press 

France Taps Nuclear Power for New AI Training Cluster. France is leveraging nuclear power to boost AI computing, pledging a gigawatt for a new cluster expected to cost tens of billions of dollars. The project, led by FluidStack, plans to begin construction in Q3 2025 and connect 250 megawatts to AI chips by late 2026. If fully built out, it could house 500,000 Nvidia chips by 2028 and expand to 10 gigawatts by 2030. A parallel AI initiative with UAE backing further enhances France’s ambitions. President Emmanuel Macron sees nuclear power as a competitive edge, aiming to position France as a leader in AI infrastructure. Wall Street Journal

What DeepSeek’s Success Says About China’s Ability to Nurture Talent. China’s AI success with DeepSeek highlights its strength in STEM—science, technology, engineering, and mathematics—education, which produces more graduates than any other country. DeepSeek’s founders all studied in China, unlike many past tech leaders educated abroad. The country has expanded AI education, with nearly 2,300 undergraduate programs added since 2018. However, political constraints and a rigid corporate culture limit innovation. While government funding fosters academia-business ties, heavy-handed crackdowns on tech firms deter entrepreneurship. DeepSeek’s independent funding and interdisciplinary hiring set it apart. Experts argue China’s long-term AI competitiveness depends on loosening government control to fully leverage its talent pool. New York Times

Tech megacaps plan to spend more than $300 billion in 2025 as AI race intensifies. Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft plan to invest up to $320 billion in AI technologies and data centers in 2025, up from $230 billion last year. Amazon leads with $100 billion, mainly for Amazon Web Services expansion. Microsoft is committing $80 billion, while Alphabet and Meta will spend $75 billion and $60–65 billion, respectively. The spending surge follows competition from China's DeepSeek, which disrupted markets and triggered an $800 billion selloff in AI chip stocks. Tech CEOs remain committed despite supply constraints, viewing AI as a long-term business opportunity. Apple and Tesla are also investing but on a smaller scale. CNBC 

Coaxing Dangerous Information From DeepSeek Is Easier Than With Other AIs. The Chinese AI app DeepSeek is more vulnerable to jailbreaks than its Western competitors, according to AI safety experts and The Wall Street Journal. Tests showed it provided instructions for modifying bird flu, creating bioweapons, and promoting self-harm—responses that ChatGPT and other major models refused. Despite safeguards, relatively simple tricks bypassed them, allowing DeepSeek to generate pro-Hitler manifestos and detailed cyberattack guidance. DeepSeek’s success has reshaped the AI landscape with its open-source, free-to-use model, which could accelerate security risks. Palo Alto Networks, CalypsoAI, and Israeli firm Kela breached DeepSeek’s defenses. Cisco warned AI threats will increase in the coming months as safety remains a low priority for some developers. Unlike OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic, DeepSeek lacks strong restrictions, and its open-source nature allows modifications. While Meta argues open-source AI enables better security testing, DeepSeek avoids sensitive topics like Tiananmen Square and echoes Chinese government positions. Wall Street Journal

Fighting the war in Ukraine on the electromagnetic spectrum. Ukraine’s war on the electromagnetic spectrum is a fast-moving arms race. In July 2024, Russian drones switched frequencies, rendering Ukraine’s electronic warfare (EW) systems ineffective. Ukraine adapted by securing new systems, stabilizing the situation after weeks of heavy losses. The conflict has evolved into an intense battle between jammers and drones, forcing both sides to shift frequencies constantly. Ukraine’s innovative use of first person-view drones in 2023 reshaped the battlefield, exposing vulnerabilities in Russia’s powerful but bulky EW systems, which had to retreat 10-15 kilometers from the front. Ukrainian EW production has surged, with companies like Kvertus now manufacturing 5,000 devices monthly. Both sides rely on Chinese components and shift frequencies every 8-12 weeks. Advanced sensors, including satellite-based detection, help locate enemy signals. Russia leads in fiber-optic drones, which bypass EW defenses, but Ukraine is more agile in adapting new technology. Western EW systems lag often outdated and overpriced compared to Ukrainian solutions. The Economist

Ransomware payments dropped 35% in 2024. Ransomware payments fell 35% in 2024, dropping to $812.55 million from $1.25 billion in 2023, despite an increase in attack frequency, according to Chainalysis. Law enforcement actions, including FBI and UK National Crime Agency crackdowns on LockBit and ALPHV/BlackCat, contributed to the decline. Unlike past disruptions, no dominant group replaced them, leading to smaller-scale attacks with lower ransom demands. Improved cybersecurity defenses also reduced victim payouts. Ransomware operators shifted tactics, relying less on mixers and more on cross-chain bridges and centralized exchanges to move funds. Some attackers are hoarding crypto in personal wallets, fearing law enforcement surveillance. Cyberscoop 

SpaceX launches 21 Starlink satellites from Florida. SpaceX launched 21 Starlink satellites from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on Saturday at 2:18 p.m. EST. The Falcon 9 rocket carried 13 satellites equipped with direct-to-cell capability. About eight minutes after liftoff, the rocket’s first stage landed on the drone ship "A Shortfall of Gravitas" in the Atlantic Ocean. This marked the 17th flight for the booster, with 12 previous Starlink missions. The upper stage deployed the satellites into low Earth orbit approximately 65 minutes after launch. SpaceX has completed 17 Falcon 9 missions in 2025, including 11 for Starlink and a Starship test flight on Jan. 16. Space.com 

NASA and General Atomics test nuclear fuel for future moon and Mars missions. NASA and General Atomics recently tested nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) fuel at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, marking progress toward faster deep-space travel. Conducted earlier this month, the tests exposed the fuel to extreme temperatures up to 3,000 Kelvin (4,940 Fahrenheit) to assess its durability. The results suggest NTP could be two to three times more efficient than current rockets. NASA views this technology as a way to shorten Mars missions, reducing astronaut exposure to cosmic radiation. A nuclear thermal rocket demonstration is planned for 2027 under a joint NASA-DARPA initiative to enable crewed deep-space exploration. Space.com

Intel’s AI Chief to Leave Chip Maker in Wake of CEO Exit. Intel’s AI and data-center chief, Justin Hotard, is leaving to become CEO of Nokia on April 1, continuing a leadership shake-up at the struggling chipmaker. Hotard, who joined Intel in early 2024, had been leading efforts to expand AI capabilities but is now set to replace Pekka Lundmark at Nokia. His departure follows the abrupt December retirement of Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger amid the company’s costly pivot to manufacturing chips for other firms. This strategy has wiped out $150 billion in market value, with Intel stock down over 55% in a year. Intel is still searching for a permanent CEO. Wall Street Journal

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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