Report for Monday, December 30, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Monday, December 30, 2024

Jimmy Carter, former president, Nobel Peace Prize recipient, human rights champion, dies

Ukraine Risks Losing All the Russian Land It Seized Within Months, US Officials Say

Azerbaijan Accuses Russia of Coverup in Kazakhstan Plane Crash

Kim Jong Un pledges to implement toughest anti-U.S. policy yet

U.S. identifies 9th telecom firm as victim of Salt Typhoon

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Cipher Brief Experts on What to Watch for in 2025. The Cipher Brief asked experts from our network, What’s the most important issue, problem or region to watch in 2025?  They’re thinking about Russia, Ukraine, China, North Korea, Iran.  And so are we.  The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israel orders evacuation of Beit Hanoun in northern Gaza.  Israeli forces pursuing a three-month campaign in northern Gaza ordered residents to evacuate Beit Hanoun Sunday, claiming Palestinian militants were firing rockets from the area.  Israel said its offensive was aimed at preventing Hamas from regrouping and its evacuation orders were meant to protect civilians. People have been forced out of much of north Gaza and structures razed, causing fears that Israel will maintain it as a permanent buffer zone. Palestinian health officials said Israeli military strikes in Gaza killed at least 23 people Sunday. One strike killed seven people at Al-Wafa Hospital in Gaza City, health officials said. On Sunday an Israeli tank shell hit the Al-Ahly Arab Baptist Hospital in Gaza City.  The Israeli military said the militants were using the compound to plan and execute attacks against Israeli troops. On Friday, Israeli forces stormed the Kamal Adwan hospital in northern Gaza, detaining more than 240 Palestinians, including medics.  The military said the hospital had been used as a Hamas command center and that 15 of those detained had participated in the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. The raid on Kamal Adwan, one of three medical facilities on the northern edge of Gaza, put the last major health facility in the area out of service, the World Health Organization (WHO) said in a post on X.  Reuters South China Morning Post Reuters Euronews

Israel detains director of Kamal Adwan Hospital.  The Israeli army detained the director of Kamal Adwan Hospital, one of northern Gaza ‘s last functioning hospitals. Gaza’s Health Ministry said Dr. Hussam Abu Safiya was arrested Friday and taken to an interrogation center. The ministry said Israeli troops forced many staff and patients to strip outside in winter weather.  The Israeli military on Saturday called Safiya a suspected Hamas operative. It said special forces found weapons in the area and were fired on by militants, who were “eliminated.” Associated Press  

 Israeli report says Gaza kidnappers tortured hostages, including children.   Hostages held in Gaza endured sexual and psychological abuse, starvation, burns and medical neglect, according to a new report by the Israeli Health Ministry.  The report, to go to the UN in the coming week, is based on interviews with the medical and welfare teams that treated more than 100 hostages released in late November 2023.  Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

US to send $15 billion to Ukraine using frozen Russian assets. The United States will provide Ukraine with $15 billion, backed by future revenues from frozen Russian assets, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on Monday. The money is part of the $20 billion U.S. contribution under the G7’s PEACE in Ukraine project. The funds will support social and humanitarian needs. Ukraine has already received $1 billion in profits from these assets, Shmyhal said, following the G7’s $50 billion loan framework agreed in July. Russia condemned similar asset-based funding plans by the U.K. as "fraudulent." Most frozen Russian assets are held in European Union countries. Kyiv Independent

Biden announces $2.5 billion in fresh military aid to Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden announced $2.5 billion in additional military aid to Ukraine on Monday, including $1.25 billion from U.S. stockpiles and a $1.22 billion Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) package. Under USAI, military equipment is procured from the defense industry or partners, rather than drawn from American stocks, meaning it can take months or years to arrive on the battlefield.  In a statement, Biden said much of the new assistance will provide Ukraine with "an immediate influx of capabilities that it continues to use to great effect on the battlefield and longer-term supplies of air defense, artillery, and other critical weapons systems." Biden aims to maximize support for Ukraine before President-elect Donald Trump, who has questioned U.S. aid levels and urged Europe to contribute more, takes office on Jan. 20. While Biden's administration has committed $175 billion to Ukraine, the future pace of aid under Trump remains uncertain. Reuters

Syria eyes 'strategic' ties with Ukraine, Kyiv vows more food aid shipments. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha met Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus on Monday, following the Dec. 8 ousting of Bashar al-Assad. Syria’s new government seeks "strategic partnerships" with Ukraine across political, economic, and social levels, according to Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani. Sybiha pledged additional food aid, including 20 shipments of flour under Ukraine’s "Grain from Ukraine" initiative. Russian influence in Syria has diminished, with Moscow negotiating the future of its military bases amid disrupted wheat supplies. Syria’s alignment with Ukraine marks a shift in regional dynamics, emphasizing mutual recovery from prolonged war. Reuters Alarabiya News

Ukraine Risks Losing All the Russian Land It Seized Within Months, US Officials Say. Ukrainian forces are under intense pressure in Kursk, with Russia reclaiming nearly half the territory seized during Ukraine’s August offensive. The bloody campaign has left soldiers demoralized, struggling with communication delays and mounting casualties. “Half of my troops are dead or wounded,” said a Ukrainian company commander. Troops describe chaotic battles and the impossibility of evacuating the dead under relentless Russian counterattacks, bolstered by 12,000 North Korean troops. Bloomberg reports that U.S. officials expect Ukraine to lose the remainder of Kursk by spring, potentially undermining Kyiv’s negotiation leverage. Despite setbacks, analysts highlight Kursk’s incursion as a demonstration of Ukraine’s ability to breach Russian defenses. However, doubts grow over whether holding Kursk justifies risking broader front-line vulnerabilities, including key logistics hubs like Pokrovsk. Associated Press  Bloomberg 

Ukraine Slows Firing of Missiles into Russia as Trump Prepares to Take Office. Ukraine has reduced its use of long-range missiles, such as U.S.-provided ATACMS and British Storm Shadows, due to dwindling stockpiles and the upcoming presidency of Donald Trump, who opposes their deployment inside Russia. Initial strikes targeted key Russian locations, disrupting logistics but not altering the war’s trajectory. With fewer missiles left, Kyiv is adopting a more selective strategy. Analysts note Ukraine's focus on preserving its limited arsenal for high-value targets while facing uncertain Western resupply prospects. New York Times

Desertions spark panic and pardons in Ukraine's army. Desertions in Ukraine’s army highlight the toll of Russia’s prolonged war. Oleksandr, 45, deserted after six months of relentless bombardments in Luhansk but returned due to guilt and seeing others continue fighting. Over 90,000 cases of desertion have been recorded since 2022, reflecting mounting challenges as Ukraine struggles to recruit and retain troops. Amnesty laws now permit first-time deserters to rejoin units, with 8,000 returning in November alone. Soldiers cite mental strain, lack of training, and poor leadership as key factors. Commanders emphasize systemic changes, psychological support, and ending the war. "How do you reduce the numbers? I don't even know how. We just have to end the war," one commander said. France 24

The Russian billionaires whose chemical factories fuel Russia's war machine. An investigation by Reuters reveals that five Russian chemical companies linked to Western-sanctioned billionaires, including Roman Abramovich and Vagit Alekperov, supply over 75% of the ingredients used in Moscow's explosives production. Data from 600,000 rail shipments between February 2022 and September 2024 highlights the critical role these firms play in Russia's munitions manufacturing, with supplies reaching state-owned factories like Sverdlov, Kazan, and Tambov. While companies claim civilian usage, experts cite “red flags” due to the volume and nature of shipments. Critics argue sanctions have failed to curb Russia's military production, but imposing stricter measures may risk global food security. Reuters

Ukraine-Russia Gas Transit Deal Faces Critical Moment of Truth. With the Russia-Ukraine gas transit agreement set to expire on Dec. 31, the future of European Union energy supplies faces a pivotal moment. The transit volumes have already been reduced, with only 15 billion cubic meters of gas flowing annually through Ukraine’s pipelines—down from over 90 billion cubic meters before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This shift reflects Europe’s broader efforts to reduce dependency on Russian energy, yet some countries, like Slovakia and Hungary, remain reliant on Gazprom's supply for affordability and logistics. President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected the continuation of Russian gas transit, emphasizing its role in funding Moscow’s war effort and the risks posed to Ukraine’s pipeline infrastructure, which has so far been spared direct attacks due to its active use. Russia, which once supplied over 40% of Europe’s gas, now accounts for just 8% of imports, with pipelines like Nord Stream offline and flows rerouted through Turkey and Belarus. Analysts warn that permitting continued Russian transit via Ukraine risks undermining European Union unity and emboldening Moscow. Bloomberg

Poland Ready to Help Ukraine If Slovakia Cuts Off Power in Gas Spat. Poland is ready to increase electricity exports to Ukraine if Slovakia halts its backup power supplies amid escalating energy disputes. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who met Russian President Vladimir Putin recently, has threatened to cut electricity exports if Ukraine halts Russian gas transit starting Jan. 1, when the current five-year agreement expires. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Fico of advancing Russia’s agenda, warning of the risks to Slovakia’s economy. Ukraine plans to cease Russian gas transit but is open to alternative arrangements. Slovakia continues importing Russian oil via Ukraine's Druzhba pipeline. Kyiv may retaliate by suspending oil transit if Slovakia stops electricity supplies. The European Union, striving to reduce reliance on Russian energy, maintains high gas storage levels but has yet to mediate. These disputes come as Ukraine grapples with Russian attacks that have devastated its power infrastructure. Zelensky said Slovakia supplies 19% of Ukraine's imported power, worth $200 million annually, and called for adherence to European Union energy rules. Slovakia seeks continued Russian gas transit, fearing €500 million in losses from alternative routes and disrupted operations. Bloomberg Reuters Bloomberg

Ukraine receives its first US gas shipments via Greece. Ukraine has received its first shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S., marking a step in reducing reliance on Russian energy. Delivered via a Greek terminal, the cargo was purchased by DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy company. This move comes as Russia increases attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and amid the looming expiry of a Russian gas transit deal. The shipment includes 100 million cubic meters of gas, most of which will be resold in Greece. With continued U.S. LNG purchases through 2026, Ukraine strengthens its energy security ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Financial Times

Ukrainian foreign minister urges EU to ban, replace Russian LNG imports. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called on the European Union to ban Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, labeling them "unacceptable" amid record-high imports of 16.5 million tons in 2024.  "There is enough LNG gas on the market to not fund the criminal Russian regime with its aggression, war crimes, and hybrid attacks," Sybiha wrote on X on Sunday. He urged replacing Russian LNG with supplies from the U.S. and other partners to avoid funding Russia’s aggression. Ukraine recently received its first U.S. LNG shipment, while EU leaders discussed expanding American LNG imports to reduce dependency on Russian energy. Kyiv Independent

Zelensky urges China to put pressure on North Korea over troops in Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged China to pressure North Korea to withdraw troops from Russia, citing the heavy casualties they are suffering in the war. Over 3,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded, with many sent into poorly protected assaults in the Kursk region. Zelensky condemned the treatment of these troops as expendable by both Russian and North Korean leaders. U.S. officials corroborated reports of mass casualties, calling the tactics "hopeless assaults." Zelensky emphasized that North Koreans should not be dying in Europe’s war and called on China to prevent Pyongyang's further involvement, aligning with its anti-escalation stance. South China Morning Post Reuters Reuters 

Ukraine received over $41 billion in international aid in 2024. Ukraine received $41.7 billion in international aid in 2024, Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko announced on December 30. Recent U.S. contributions include $485 million in humanitarian aid and a planned $1.25 billion military aid package. President Joe Biden directed continued weapons deliveries following Russia’s Christmas Day attack. "This year, we have already secured $41.7 billion in aid from our partners, which allowed us to fully fund pensions, salaries in the education and healthcare sectors, and the entire humanitarian-social system," Marchenko said. Kyiv Independent

US to send $1.25 billion in weapons to Ukraine. The U.S. will announce a $1.25 billion military aid package for Ukraine, focusing on delivery before President Joe Biden leaves office on Jan. 20. The package includes munitions for NASAMS and HAWK air defense systems, Stinger missiles, and artillery rounds. While the Pentagon is expediting assistance, officials say the $5.6 billion approved for Ukraine will not be fully spent by Biden's departure. The aid, part of a broader $64 billion commitment since 2022, aims to strengthen Ukraine amid intensified Russian attacks and ongoing battles near Kursk. The remaining funds will be available to President-elect Donald Trump. Associated Press

Ukraine's defense spending reaches $42.88 billion through November 2024. Ukraine's defense spending reached $42.88 billion from January to November 2024, accounting for 58.6% of the state budget’s general fund. November alone saw $4.92 billion spent on salaries for military personnel, equipment and weaponry purchases, fuel, food, and medical supplies. Defense remains Ukraine's largest budget expenditure, reflecting the demands of the war. Total state budget expenditures for the period were $89.96 billion, exceeding the year’s original projections. The funds are directed toward sustaining military and security operations, underscoring Ukraine's commitment to its defense. Ukrainska Pravda

German election favorite would ask Russian permission for Ukraine peacekeeping mission. Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and frontrunner for the February chancellorship, suggested that deploying peacekeepers to Ukraine would require Russian approval. “I would like such a mandate to be given in consensus with Russia, not in conflict,” Merz said. He acknowledged a ceasefire is distant and said, “I cannot imagine it coming to such a scenario.” Benjamin Tallis, director of the Democratic Strategy Initiative, criticized Merz's remarks, calling them “the kind of weakness that Russia feasts on.” He argued that seeking permission from Moscow would embolden Russia, invite coercion, and jeopardize European and Ukrainian security. Merz’s comments sparked accusations of pre-election backtracking, despite his reputation as a strong supporter of Ukraine. While he has pledged to deliver Taurus missiles to Kyiv, critics see his peacekeeping remarks as undermining Germany’s leadership amid rising domestic skepticism over supporting Ukraine. The Telegraph

Savage tactics have swung the Ukraine war in Russia's favor. Russia's advances in Ukraine rely on expendable convict troops, a tactic honed by the Wagner Group during the Battle of Bakhmut. Convicts, deployed in suicidal wave assaults, deplete Ukrainian defenses, allowing regular troops to seize ground. This "Wagnerization" continues with Storm-Z units despite Wagner’s decline. While effective in urban combat, convict forces struggle in open terrain and mechanized warfare. Russia avoids mass conscription, using convicts to sidestep public unrest. Losses are high, with convicts facing grim survival odds. Survivors return to Russian communities, raising societal concerns. These tactics underscore the war's human cost and Russia’s ruthless approach to military strategy. Business Insider

Where Is Russia Finding New Soldiers? Wherever It Can. Facing severe manpower shortages in Ukraine, Russia has broadened its recruitment tactics, enlisting murder suspects, debtors, immigrants, and jailed officials. Under a new law, criminal suspects can join the military to avoid charges, while debtors can have up to 10 million rubles forgiven if they enlist. Immigrants with Russian citizenship face conscription during enforcement raids. Convicted officials and wealthy individuals often secure safer roles, avoiding combat. Critics argue this undermines accountability and inflates crime rates. Analysts suggest the Kremlin's desperation stems from heavy casualties and waning volunteer recruitment, as Russia seeks to maintain pressure on Ukraine before U.S. policy shifts. New York Times

Can Ukraine face another year of war? Ukraine faces mounting exhaustion after three years of war, with mixed views emerging on whether the country can endure another year. Near Kurakhove, Ukrainian forces fight to prevent encirclement, with volunteer soldiers like the Black Pack showing resilience despite high casualties and fatigue. Their commander, Surt, insists on continuing the fight, fearing negotiations would offer no justice. However, others, like Denys, warn that Ukraine’s forces are depleted, and a ceasefire may be inevitable. In Dnipro, civilians grapple with war fatigue. While some demand negotiations to end suffering, others fear losing territory for peace. Public sentiment increasingly reflects the strain of prolonged conflict, raising questions about Ukraine's ability to sustain its resistance. BBC

Scholz says Trump wants Ukraine to become strong to end the war. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump believes ending the war in Ukraine requires a strong Ukrainian military. Scholz expressed confidence in coordinated U.S.-European support for Ukraine, emphasizing the importance of involving Kyiv directly in discussions. While Trump has unofficially signaled continued military aid to Ukraine, Scholz cautioned against viewing a ceasefire as a sustainable solution, stressing the need for comprehensive security guarantees for Ukraine. Scholz confirmed he has spoken with Trump twice, agreeing on close coordination to support Ukraine’s defense and eventual peace negotiations. Ukrainska Pravda

Russia says it thwarted a Ukrainian plot to kill an officer and a blogger. Russia’s Federal Security Service on Saturday claimed it thwarted a Ukrainian plot to assassinate a high-ranking officer and a pro-Russian blogger using a bomb concealed in a portable music speaker. A Russian citizen allegedly collaborated with Ukraine’s GUR intelligence, retrieving the bomb in Moscow. Ukraine has justified targeted killings as measures against war crimes, but Russia denounced them as terrorism. The announcement follows Ukraine’s reported killing of Russian General Kirillov, escalating tensions and prompting Moscow’s vow for retaliation. Reuters

3 senior Russian officers killed in HIMARS drone attack, Ukraine’s military intelligence says. Three senior Russian officers were killed in a Ukrainian strike involving HIMARS and drones in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) said on Friday. The attack targeted a meeting and later hit an evacuation group. The officers included battalion and intelligence commanders. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine says it struck a drone depot in Russia's Oryol region. Ukraine said Saturday it struck a Shahed drone depot in Russia's Oryol region on Thursday, targeting storage, maintenance, and repair facilities. The Ukrainian military claims the attack, conducted by its air force, reduced Russia's capacity for drone assaults on civilian infrastructure. Russia has not commented, continuing near-daily drone strikes on Ukraine. Reuters

Ukraine plans to open over 150 underground schools by the fall of 2025. Ukraine plans to open over 150 underground schools by September 2025, Deputy Education Minister Nadiia Kuzmychova announced Friday. These schools aim to protect students from Russian aerial attacks, which have damaged one in seven Ukrainian schools and destroyed 400. Currently, 79 underground schools are under construction, including in front-line regions. Kharkiv pioneered underground learning by using metro stations for in-person education. The initiative highlights Ukraine's commitment to maintaining education despite Russia’s war. Kyiv Independent

Britain to give Ukraine £11 million to bring Russian war criminals to justice. The UK has pledged nearly £11 million to support Ukraine’s efforts to prosecute Russian war crimes, including £4.5 million for the Ukrainian prosecutor general’s office. This builds on £6.2 million already allocated to the Atrocity Crimes Advisory Group. Investigations target atrocities such as the Bucha massacre. Foreign Secretary David Lammy reaffirmed the UK's support for accountability and lasting peace. The Telegraph

3 Key Developments in the Russia-Ukraine War in 2024. The Russia-Ukraine war in 2024 saw three major developments: Ukraine's Kursk Offensive: Kyiv’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region captured over two dozen settlements but faced fierce resistance, including North Korean troops deployed by Moscow. Ukraine holds 800 square kilometers of Kursk, a potential bargaining chip in ceasefire talks. Escalated Cross-Border Strikes: Russia used its experimental Oreshnik missile in response to Ukraine’s deployment of U.S.-made ATACMS. While both actions carried political weight, they had limited impact on the war’s trajectory. Russia’s Advances: Moscow gained over 2,660 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, with key advances near Kupiansk and Pokrovsk, though at significant cost. Moscow Times

ANALYSIS–How the War in Ukraine Has Changed Ukrainians. Russia’s full-scale invasion has profoundly transformed Ukrainian society. Since 2022, Ukrainians have increasingly valued sovereignty, democracy, and national identity. Regional and linguistic divisions have diminished, with widespread support for European Union and NATO membership rising sharply. Trust in state institutions, particularly the military and presidency, has soared, reflecting unity against Russian aggression. Despite heavy losses and economic hardship, Ukrainians display remarkable resilience. Social cohesion remains high, with significant public participation in volunteer and defense efforts. While optimism about swift victory has waned, a strong sense of national identity and determination to align with the West underscores Ukraine’s path toward independence and unity. Foreign Affairs

In Bomb-Scarred Cities, Risking Life and Limb to Get Civilians to Safety. In eastern Ukraine, the White Angels police unit, led by Vasyl Pipa, risks life and limb evacuating civilians from front-line cities like Kurakhove. Pipa recalls the emptiness left by witnessing deaths: “It’s hard to bear when people die… ordinary people in your arms.” Most who remain are elderly or disabled, enduring bombardment without utilities. Aid groups like Global Empowerment Mission deliver food and supplies under constant threat. Pokrovsk’s population has plummeted from 60,000 to 11,400, with Russian drones and strikes claiming lives daily. Despite the dangers, Pipa and his team continue their vital mission to save those unable to escape. New York Times

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, Dec. 27-Sunday, Dec. 29. SUNDAY– Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected U.S. proposals that Donald Trump’s team reportedly discussed to delay Ukraine's NATO membership and deploy peacekeepers. Vladimir Putin reinforced "denazification" demands in a new strategy document, accusing Ukraine of extremism and "Russophobia." Ukrainian forces developed tactics to counter Russian-guided glide bomb strikes in Kharkiv Oblast. Salome Zurabishvili left the Georgian presidential palace, asserting her legitimacy as Georgian protests erupted against Mikheil Kavelashvili’s inauguration. SATURDAY– Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to ease tensions with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan after a Russian air defense system likely caused the crash of an Azerbaijani passenger plane on Dec. 25. Ukrainian forces targeted a Russian Shahed drone facility in Oryol Oblast, reducing Russia's capacity for drone strikes. Russia is legally paving the way to remove the Taliban and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham from its list of terrorist organizations. FRIDAY–Russia has expanded the production of Shahed drones in Tatarstan, with 5,760 produced in 2024, but due to sanctions, it faces challenges sourcing quality components. Vladimir Putin appointed Sergei Shoigu to lead a newly created Scientific Expert Council for the Russian Security Council. Russian regions continue to raise enlistment bonuses to boost military recruitment efforts.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Toretsk, Kreminna, Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, Vulhedar, Kurakhove, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Sunday–Institute for the Study of WarSaturday–Institute for the Study of War  Friday–Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Ukraine needs hardware, not cosy words. Peter Pomerantsev argues that Ukraine’s survival depends on tangible support, not symbolic gestures. He critiques hollow political language and outdated security frameworks like NATO and the European Union, emphasizing the need for industrial-scale military production and reliable alliances. Pomerantsev highlights Kyiv’s lessons in “freedom” and “sovereignty,” rooted in self-defense and global collaboration. He calls for secure supply chains, adaptable economic blocs, and “coalitions of the willing” to counter Russia’s aggression. As Ukraine prepares for possible negotiations, he warns against repeating past failures like the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. Ukraine's defense ensures its sovereignty and global security against authoritarian threats. The Guardian

Opinion: 3 non negotiables in the quest for peace in Ukraine. Matthew Bondy outlines three non negotiables for peace in Ukraine. First, Zelensky and Trump must reject any settlement placing Russian borders near Kyiv. Second, NATO membership for Ukraine is essential to deter future Russian aggression, as history shows that non-NATO states are vulnerable. Third, Russia’s frozen assets should fund Ukraine's reconstruction, supporting its economic recovery and integration into the democratic West. Bondy warns against compromising justice or stability for a hasty peace. The Hill

Opinion: A truce with Russia could lead to an ultimate Ukrainian victory. Yuri Yarim-Agaev argues that a truce, not a peace deal, could pave the way for Ukraine's victory. A ceasefire would buy time for Vladimir Putin’s weakening regime to collapse without conceding Ukrainian territory. The West must increase military aid, tighten sanctions, and lower oil prices to strengthen Ukraine and weaken Russia. Ukraine’s NATO path must remain open, and any truce must ensure Russia cannot rebuild for future aggression. Yarim-Agaev believes ultimate victory requires the fall of Putin’s regime. The Hill

AMERICAS

Trump’s ‘America First’ strategy analyzed.  President-elect Donald Trump’s boasts of taking over Greenland, the Panama Canal and Canada and threatening Mexico are his idea of an “America First” foreign policy, involving suspicion of all foreign players, friend and foe alike, and acquiring territory where possible, aides say.  “World leaders are flocking to the table because President Trump is already delivering on his promise to Make America Strong Again,” Trump transition spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a statement. “When he officially takes office, foreign nations will think twice before ripping off our country, America will be respected again, and the whole world will be safer. ”Trump’s comments about Canada, Mexico, Greenland and Panama ae part of a his plan to counter Russia and China, a Trump aide told the Washington Post. The Post analyzes the thinking behind Trump’s approach to foreign policy.  It quotes an anonymous Trump campaign official as insisting, “This isn’t just slapdash, there’s a coherent connective tissue to all of this. Trump knows what levers to pull and what guardrails there are, and he’s in a position of power to utilize those levers.” Washington Post

ANALYSIS–How Trump’s ‘America First’ will change the world.  The U.S. under Donald Trump is on track to reorder its international relationships and obligations. When the U.S. changes course, so will the rest of the world.  The Financial Times analyzes Trump’s views and what they mean for international relations in 2025.  It concludes that the U.S. will become the world’s most powerful disrupter.  The dramatic changes likely to unfold, especially Trump’s threats of tariffs, are unsettling traditional allies as well as adversaries.   Financial Times

Jimmy Carter, former president, Nobel Peace Prize recipient, human rights champion, dies.   Jimmy Carter, the 39th president of the U.S., died Sunday at his home in Plains, Ga. He was 100.  President Joe Biden ordered a state funeral and National Day of Mourning to be held on Jan. 9.  “To all of the young people in this nation and for anyone in search of what it means to live a life of purpose and meaning — the good life — study Jimmy Carter, a man of principle, faith and humility,” Biden said. “He showed that we are a great nation because we are a good people.”  During his single term as president, he compiled extraordinary successes in foreign affairs, brokering a peace treaty between Israel and Egypt, signing a strategic arms limitation agreement with the Soviet Union, formalizing diplomatic relations with China and signing over the Panama Canal to Panama. He granted amnesty to Vietnam War draft resisters and appointed Andy Young, a former aide to the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., to be ambassador to the United Nations.  His bitterest disappointment was his inability to free 66 Americans taken hostage by Iranian militants in Tehran on Nov. 4, 1979. The Iranian regime released them as soon as Ronald Reagan, who had defeated Carter in 1980, was inaugurated.  Returning to civilian life, In 1984, Carters embraced Habitat for Humanity and by 2019 had helped renovate nearly 4,400 homes in 14 countries.  He launched a successful project to eliminate Guinea worm in Africa.  His Carter Center monitored elections throughout the world. In 2002 Mr. Carter received the Nobel Peace Prize “for his decades of untiring effort to find peaceful solutions to international conflicts.” He warned President George W. Bush  against invading Iraq, advice Bush ignored.   Reuters New York Times  Associated Press 

Washington confronts waning commercial maritime industry as China’s maritime sector booms.  U.S. commercial ships number less than 1% of the world fleet. The U.S. Navy lacks enough  commercial vessels to supply its far-flung operations. China dominates shipping and shipbuilding. Washington lawmakers and policy hands are considering how to rebuild U.S. commercial shipbuilding and freight hauling.  Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro has called for “maritime statecraft,” underscoring commercial shipping’s importance to the Navy.  The Wall Street Journal explains.  Wall Street Journal  

Mexican authorities find 15 bodies near border with Guatemala.   The bodies of 15 men were located in 11 clandestine graves in the southern Mexican state of Chiapas, near the border with Guatemala.  The Sinaloa and Jalisco Nueva Generación drug cartels are waging a turf war in the area.   Associated Press  

Brazil cancels temp work visas for China's BYD.  Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Friday it has stopped issuing temporary work visas for BYD, the giant Chinese automaker.   Brazilian officials suspect that 163 Chinese workers found at a construction site owned by BYD are victims of human trafficking.  They were living in “slavery-like conditions,” officials said. BYD, said it would “immediately terminate the contract” with the contractor, Jinjiang Group, which has denied any wrongdoing.  Reuters Associated Press CNN   

Guatemala may accept migrants deported by Trump administration.   Guatemala is open to receiving citizens of other Central American nations who are deported from the U.S., in order to cultivate a positive relationship with the incoming Trump administration. "There has to be a regional response," a Guatemalan official who requested anonymity told Reuters. "And we want to be part of the solution."  President-elect Donald Trump, who has promised to deport record numbers of immigrants living in the United States illegally.  Reuters Reuters Fox News   

EUROPE

Azerbaijan Accuses Russia of Coverup in Kazakhstan Plane Crash. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev on Sunday strongly criticized Russia for its handling of Wednesday’s plane crash that killed 38 people, accusing Moscow of providing “foolish and dishonest” explanations and attempting a cover-up. Aliyev blamed Russian electronic interference and ground fire for the crash and dismissed Russia’s initial explanations involving birds and a gas cylinder. Demanding accountability, compensation, and justice, Aliyev stated, “This clearly showed that the Russian side wanted to cover up the issue, and of course, this is something no one can be proud of.” Aliyev said that Azerbaijan was investigating whether Russia intentionally diverted the plane in the hopes that the damaged aircraft would simply fall into the Caspian Sea. The stricken plane crashed in the city of Aktau in western Kazakhstan; 29 people on the flight survived. The incident, coupled with Russia’s waning influence in former Soviet territories, highlights growing regional discontent. Azerbaijan’s independent stance follows Russia’s inability to prevent violence in Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia’s pivot toward Western alliances. Analysts suggest Moscow risks losing influence in the South Caucasus, compounded by Turkey’s growing role as a key ally to Azerbaijan. Wall Street Journal Washington Post New York Times Associated Press Washington Post Associated Press Reuters New York Times Bloomberg Financial Times 

Suspected Russian downing of Azerbaijan plane reflects Ukraine war’s growing footprint. The Dec. 25 crash of an Azerbaijani Airlines plane in Kazakhstan, likely caused by Russian air defense misidentifying the aircraft during Ukrainian drone strikes near Grozny, highlights escalating risks in Russian airspace amid the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. The incident, which killed 38 people, has strained Russia's relations with Azerbaijan, as Baku demands accountability while maintaining diplomatic neutrality. Experts criticize Russia’s reluctance to fully close its airspace despite frequent drone attacks and air defense responses, calling it unsafe for civilian flights. The crash also underscores the increasing reach of Ukraine's drone operations, targeting Russian military assets deep within its territory. Los Angeles Times Kyiv Independent

Five infamous incidents of commercial airplanes that were shot down. Five passenger planes have tragically been shot down in recent decades. In 1983, Korean Airlines Flight 007 was intercepted by a Soviet jet after straying into Soviet airspace, killing 269 people. In 1988, Iran Air Flight 655 was mistaken for an F-14 fighter jet by the USS Vincennes, which launched missiles, killing all 290 on board. Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 was downed in 2001 over the Black Sea during a Ukrainian Russian military exercise, killing 78 people. In 2014, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was struck by a Russian missile over eastern Ukraine, killing 298; a Dutch court later convicted three separatist leaders. Lastly, in 2020, Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 was mistakenly targeted by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard near Tehran amid heightened U.S.-Iran tensions, killing 176. These incidents highlight the devastating consequences of military errors and misjudgments involving civilian flights. Washington Post

What We Know About the Ship Finland Seized Over Fears of Sabotage. Finland seized the oil tanker Eagle S in the Gulf of Finland on suspicion of damaging undersea cables critical for energy and data transmission between Finland and Estonia. Finnish authorities found drag marks on the seabed likely left by the anchor of seized tanker Eagle S. Working under water, “we have been able to identify the dragging track at the seabed from the beginning to the end,” Sami Paila, detective chief inspector and tactical leader from Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation, said in a statement on Sunday. Believed to be part of Russia’s "shadow fleet," the aging vessel allegedly supports Russia's hybrid warfare tactics. Finnish authorities confiscated materials from the ship, which is under police and naval guard, and NATO has announced increased Baltic Sea security. Estonia has stepped up patrols around the remaining cables. The European Union condemned the Russian tactics and proposed new sanctions targeting shadow fleet operations to curb their economic and environmental threats. New York Times Bloomberg Reuters 

Has Russia’s Shadow Fleet, Built to Evade Sanctions, Added Sabotage to Its List? Russia’s shadow fleet, designed to bypass Western sanctions and covertly ship oil, may now be involved in sabotage. Finnish officials suspect the Russian-linked oil tanker Eagle S damaged undersea cables, including a power link between Finland and Estonia. If confirmed, this would mark a significant escalation in Russia’s tactics against NATO nations. The Eagle S, part of Russia’s shadow fleet, demonstrates hallmarks such as murky ownership, minimal insurance, and substandard maintenance. NATO has pledged to increase its naval presence in the Baltic Sea, where sabotage risk is high due to critical energy and communication infrastructure. Russia’s shadow fleet, now comprising over 17% of global oil tankers, has raised concerns beyond sanctions evasion, with potential use for hybrid warfare. “It’s time to drop the illusions and face it,” said Estonian Interior Minister Lauri Läänemets. Recent incidents, such as a Hong Kong-registered ship severing pipelines and increased Russian surveillance activity, underscore growing threats in the Baltic region amidst intensified West-Russia tensions. New York Times

Germany calls for new sanctions on Russia's dark fleet. Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock urged new European Union sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet after damage to an undersea cable linking Finland and Estonia. She highlighted recurring incidents in the Baltic Sea, where ships drag anchors along the seafloor, damaging cables monthly. Finnish authorities detained the Eagle S tanker, suspected to be part of Russia's dark fleet, as they investigate the incident as "aggravated criminal mischief." Many shadow fleet vessels operate under opaque ownership, lacking insurance and posing environmental risks. Business Insider

Lavrov says Russia will abandon its unilateral missile moratorium. Russia will abandon its moratorium on deploying intermediate and shorter-range nuclear-capable missiles, citing U.S. deployment of similar weapons globally, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Sunday. This move effectively dismantles the remnants of Cold War-era arms control, including the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Relations between Russia and the U.S. remain at their worst since the Cold War. Lavrov said there were "no conditions" for a strategic dialogue with Washington and criticized U.S. actions as triggering a new arms race involving China. The United States publicly blamed Russia's development of the 9M729 ground-launched cruise missile, known in NATO as the SSC-8, as the reason for it leaving the INF Treaty. Russia fired a new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile known as "Oreshnik," or Hazel Tree, at Ukraine on Nov. 21. Reuters 

Putin toughens punishment for rebellion in Russia and will fight extremism from Ukraine. On Saturday, Vladimir Putin signed laws intensifying penalties for armed rebellion and military crimes, including life imprisonment without parole for terrorism and rebellion. Foreigners aiding enemies face up to 15 years in prison. Military personnel in "volunteer formations" face stricter consequences for disobedience and desertion. A new anti-extremism strategy targets Ukraine as a key threat source and emphasizes the "socio-cultural integration" of occupied territories. It frames protests and calls for "decolonization" as destabilizing, countered by promoting Russia's "historical unity." Analysts link these measures to Kremlin fears of internal threats, such as Yevgeny Prigozhin’s march, potentially destabilizing Putin’s regime. Ukrainska Pravda

Georgian Dream Billionaire Ivanishvili Is Sanctioned by US. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned Georgian billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of the Georgian Dream party, for undermining Georgia’s democratic and Euro-Atlantic future in favor of Russia. Georgian Dream, accused of eroding democratic institutions and enabling rights abuses, has faced protests after delaying EU membership talks. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze dismissed the sanctions as "nothing new." Ivanishvili, with a $7.6 billion fortune from post-Soviet Russian ventures, claims Western NGOs aim to oust the government and provoke conflict with Russia. The EU has frozen Georgia’s membership talks, and the U.S. suspended its strategic partnership. Bloomberg

Kavelashvili is inaugurated as Georgia’s president. Mikheil Kavelashvili was inaugurated as Georgia’s president on Sunday, shifting away from pro-Western policies. A former soccer player and ruling party member, Kavelashvili, 53, won uncontested due to Georgian Dream's control of the electoral college. His inauguration, labeled a “parody” by outgoing president Salome Zourabichvili, has drawn protests from those opposing Georgian Dream's perceived pro-Russia stance and its suspension of EU accession talks. Demonstrators held red cards symbolizing dissent against Kavelashvili’s policies. Zourabichvili, who vacated the presidential residence, called for new elections, accusing the ruling party of suppressing dissent and tilting toward authoritarianism. Associated Press

An altercation erupts at a high-level meeting of a Russia-dominated economic union. An altercation disrupted the Eurasian Economic Union’s meeting Thursday when Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko clashed with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Joining via video call after canceling his trip due to COVID-19, Pashinyan refused Lukashenko’s invitation to attend the next meeting in Belarus, citing his freeze on high-level visits over Lukashenko’s support for Armenia’s rival, Azerbaijan. Lukashenko pressed for an explanation, prompting Pashinyan to snap, “This is not the right format for discussing these issues.” Russian President Vladimir Putin and other leaders remained silent as tensions flared, underscoring discord within the Russia-led economic bloc. Associated Press

Croatian Leader Who Doubts Ukraine Aid Wins First-Round Vote. Croatian President Zoran Milanovic secured 49.1% of votes in the first round of the presidential election on Sunday, positioning him as the favorite in a Jan. 12 runoff against Dragan Primorac, who garnered 19.4%. Milanovic, known for opposing NATO expansion and condemning military aid to Ukraine as “deeply immoral,” has clashed with pro-Ukraine Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic. While Croatia's presidency is largely ceremonial, it oversees the armed forces and diplomatic appointments. Milanovic emphasized political unity amid global uncertainties, saying, “I’ll fight for the state of law, against violence and usurpation.” His reelection would further align with Eastern European populist trends. Bloomberg

Russia says it will stop gas exports to Moldova from Jan. 1. Russia's Gazprom will halt gas exports to Moldova from Jan. 1, citing unpaid debts, while Moldova braces for severe power cuts. Gazprom claims Moldova owes $709 million, though Moldova disputes this, estimating $8.6 million. Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean condemned the move, accusing Russia of using energy as a political weapon. Reliant on Russian gas routed via Ukraine, Moldova has diversified its energy sources to reduce dependency. The shutdown also risks blackouts in the Russian-controlled Moldovan region of Transnistria, where cheap power is generated. Moldova and Transnistria declared states of emergency, with plans to cut power exports and reduce consumption starting Jan. 1. Authorities in Moldova's separatist Transnistria region on Sunday cut off gas supplies to several state institutions as a deal allowing Russian gas to transit through Ukraine comes to an end at the close of the year. Reuters Reuters

Belarus’ strongman leader pardons 20 more prisoners, but rights groups say repression continues. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko pardoned 20 political prisoners on Sunday, including 11 women and 14 individuals with chronic illnesses, ahead of January's presidential elections. Rights group Viasna reports over 1,250 political prisoners remain jailed, many arrested after 2020 protests against Lukashenko’s disputed re-election. High-profile figures like Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski remain imprisoned. Activist Pavel Sapelka accused Lukashenko of sending mixed signals by pardoning some while escalating repression, aiming to suppress dissent. Lukashenko, a close ally of Vladimir Putin, has ruled for over 30 years and allowed Russian forces to use Belarus for its war on Ukraine and to host tactical nuclear weapons. Associated Press

Musk causes uproar for backing Germany’s far-right party ahead of key elections. Elon Musk sparked controversy by endorsing Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Welt am Sonntag before the Feb. 23 parliamentary elections. His commentary praised AfD as a solution for Germany's economy and criticized its extremist image, citing leader Alice Weidel’s personal life. The article led to the resignation of the paper’s opinion editor and backlash from German politicians, including Friedrich Merz and Saskia Esken, who condemned Musk’s interference. The Welt editorial board defended its platform for free debate, while critics questioned Musk’s role as an outsider in Germany’s political discourse. Associated Press 

Turkey announces $14 billion regional development plan for Kurdish southeast. Turkey unveiled on Sunday a $14 billion development plan for its Kurdish southeast, targeting economic disparities with 198 projects by 2028. Industry Minister Fatih Kacir announced the initiative in Sanliurfa, projecting a $1,400 increase in annual income per capita. The plan coincides with efforts to end the PKK’s 40-year insurgency, including a rare meeting between lawmakers and PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, who may urge militants to disarm. Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz emphasized the benefits of a "terror-free Turkey" and linked regional growth to recent political changes in Syria. The PKK is designated a terrorist organization by Turkey and Western nations. Reuters 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Syria's de facto leader says holding elections could take up to four years. Syria’s de facto leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, said Sunday it could be four years before elections are held due to the need for political dialogue, drafting a new constitution, conducting a census of eligible voters, and rebuilding infrastructure after decades of Bashar al-Assad’s rule. In an interview with Saudi television network Al-Arabiyya, Al-Sharaa said Syria shared strategic interests with Russia despite the Kremlin’s strong backing of Assad, who fled power on Dec. 8 and took up exile in Moscow. Al-Sharaa is Syria’s de facto leader until March 1, when Syria’s different factions are set to hold a political dialogue to determine the country’s political future and establish a transitional government. He said Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dominant rebel group he leads, will dissolve at the national dialogue conference. In northeastern Syria, Sharaa said there are talks with all parties, including the U.S.-allied Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). "We reject Syria becoming a platform for the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) to launch attacks against Turkey," he said. He said arms and the military should only be controlled by the state. U.S. diplomats who visited Damascus this month said al-Sharaa came across as pragmatic, and Washington had decided to remove a $10 million bounty on the HTS leader’s head. Associated Press Reuters Times of Israel Al Jazeera Washington Post  Euronews

Syria Looks to Pick Up the Pieces of Its Shattered Economy. Syria faces immense challenges as it attempts to rebuild its economy after years of civil war, sanctions, and political upheaval. The fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime and the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have brought cautious optimism, with reduced prices and increased access to foreign goods. However, Syria's economy remains crippled, with 75% of the population living on less than $3.65 a day and facing fuel shortages. HTS aims to foster a free-market system, rebuild oil infrastructure, and attract foreign investment, but its terrorist designation complicates international relations. They also need the return of millions of Syrians who fled the nation of 20 million people during the civil war. Talks with Kurdish-led groups controlling oil-rich northeastern Syria are ongoing while Turkey eyes reconstruction opportunities to bolster its construction industry and counter Kurdish influence. The U.S. and European Union are considering limited sanctions relief and increased humanitarian aid, but corruption, inflation, and low foreign reserves remain major obstacles. Despite improvements, Syria’s fragile peace and dire economic needs demand urgent solutions. Wall Street Journal

Military official involved in Assad’s ‘human slaughterhouse’ arrested in Syria. Mohammed Kanjo Hassan, a former top Syrian military official linked to atrocities at Sednaya prison, was arrested Thursday in Tartus by Syria’s new Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led administration. Hassan, who oversaw death sentences during Bashar al-Assad's regime, is the highest-ranking officer detained since Assad's fall on Dec. 8. Clashes erupted during his capture, killing 14 ministry troops and wounding 10 others. Pro-Assad loyalists ambushed security forces in the Assad stronghold, marking a severe challenge to the new government. HTS, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, pledges justice for victims of abuses under Assad while working to restore stability in a country devastated by war and division. The Telegraph

Relatives of Assad arrested as they tried to fly out of Lebanon, officials say. The wife and daughter of Duraid Assad, a cousin of deposed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, were arrested on Friday at the Beirut airport while attempting to fly to Egypt using forged passports. Lebanese officials reported that Rasha Khazem and her daughter, Shams, were smuggled into Lebanon illegally and are now detained by General Security. Duraid’s father, Rifaat Assad, the brother of Bashar’s father, Hafez Assad, left Lebanon the day before using his real passport. Rifaat, known as the "Butcher of Hama," faces Swiss charges for war crimes. Lebanese security and judicial officials said that more than 20 members of the former Syrian Army’s notorious 4th Division, military intelligence officers, and others affiliated with Assad’s security forces were arrested earlier in Lebanon. Associated Press 

A suicide bomber kills a police officer and wounds another in southern Iran. A suicide bomber killed police Captain Mojtaba Shahid and critically injured his deputy in Bandar Lengeh, southern Iran, on Saturday. The attacker detonated a vest near their car. While no group has claimed responsibility, local outlets suggest the Al-Qaeda-linked Ansar al-Furqan may be involved. Associated Press 

ASIA & OCEANIA

White House: North Korean soldiers sent on hopeless missions in Ukraine, committing suicide.  North Korean soldiers are being used as “human waves” in Kursk and taking heavy casualties, the White House said Friday.  “These human wave tactics that we’re seeing haven’t really been all that effective,” National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby told reporters.  “...Our estimate is that, to date, they have suffered more than 1,000 killed or wounded in this particular fighting in just the past week of fighting on the front lines.” Kirby said that the North Korean fighters were being treated as “expendable” and were being ordered out on “hopeless assaults” against Ukrainian forces. “These North Korean soldiers appear to be highly indoctrinated, pushing attacks even when it is clear that those attacks are futile,” Kirby said.  “We also have reports of North Korean soldiers taking their own lives rather than surrendering to Ukrainian forces, likely out of fear of reprisal against their families in North Korea in the event that they’re captured.”  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted on Telegram Friday that at least 3,000 North Korean soldiers have died or been wounded in Kursk.  He said Ukrainians hadn’t taken any North Koreans as prisoners, because it appeared “their own people are executing them.”​​  NBC News  The White House 

Kim Jong Un pledges to implement toughest anti-U.S. policy yet. North Korean media reports say that leader Kim Jong Un has vowed to adopt the "toughest" anti-U.S. strategy, citing the U.S.-South Korea-Japan alliance as a "nuclear military bloc for aggression.” Kim’s remarks came during a five-day Workers' Party meeting, where he emphasized the need to bolster North Korea's military capabilities through advanced defense technologies and maintain the resolve of its soldiers. The details of his so-called anti-U.S. strategy were not disclosed. The announcement comes ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, reviving speculation about potential diplomacy between Trump and Kim, who met three times during Trump’s previous term. However, experts suggest that renewed talks are unlikely in the near term, as Trump is expected to prioritize conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. North Korea’s military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine adds another barrier to diplomacy. Since the collapse of U.S.-North Korea negotiations in 2019 over sanctions, the isolated regime has intensified its weapons testing, while Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo have expanded military drills, drawing strong objections from Pyongyang. Russia and China have consistently blocked U.N. efforts to impose further sanctions on North Korea despite its ongoing missile tests. Kim has reiterated that the U.S.'s "unchangeable hostility" justifies his country's continued nuclear buildup to counter perceived external threats. Associated Press

Taiwanese company develops board game that drops players in Chinese invasion. 2045, a new board game set to release in January, immerses players in a fictional Chinese invasion of Taiwan 20 years into the future. Created by Taiwanese company Mizo Games, the game involves role-playing as various characters—Taiwanese armed forces, Chinese sleeper agents, and citizens defending their homeland—during the 10 days leading up to the invasion. The game, developed amid heightened tensions and military activity around the self-governing island, aims to educate players on the challenges of war while encouraging strategic thinking. Crowdfunded successfully with over T$4 million, it will also launch in the U.S. and Europe later in 2025. The release coincides with Tapei's growing focus on preparedness, including government-led military simulations. Reuters The Straits Times 

South Korea investigators seek arrest warrant for Yoon over botched martial law attempt. South Korean investigators have requested an arrest warrant for President Yoon Suk Yeol following his repeated refusals to appear for questioning regarding his martial law declaration earlier this month. Yoon’s imposition of martial law on December 3 resulted in his impeachment, as well as that of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, who briefly served as acting leader. If approved, Yoon would become the first sitting president in South Korea’s history to be arrested while in office. Yoon has defended his actions as constitutional and vowed to fight in court to remain in power. A trial is ongoing to determine whether he will be reinstated or permanently removed, with a decision expected by June. Bloomberg Yonhap News Agency Reuters The Guardian Associated Press 

South Koreans reeling after fiery Jeju Air crash kills 179 people. South Korea’s turmoil, including a political crisis and volatile economy, has been compounded by the nation’s worst civil aviation accident in decades. A Jeju Air passenger plane crashed on Sunday while landing at Muan International Airport in the country’s southwest, killing all but two of the 181 passengers. The Boeing 737-800 had taken off from Bangkok and crashed around 9 a.m. local time; footage from the scene appears to show a plane moving down a runway on its belly, until it overshoots the runway, strikes a barrier, and bursts into flames. Officials were still investigating the cause of the crash. Acting President and Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok, who is facing pressure to stabilize the country amid economic and political tumult, has declared a week-long mourning period and ordered a safety review of the airline industry. He met with National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik on Monday to discuss support measures for victims of the tragic crash. Yonhap Reuters New York Times CNN Associated Press 

Afghan forces hit Pakistan in response to deadly airstrikes. Afghanistan's Defense Ministry on Saturday announced retaliatory strikes on Pakistani targets in response to deadly airstrikes last week in Afghanistan's Paktika province, which killed dozens, mostly women and children. The Taliban claimed the strikes targeted Pakistani locations used to coordinate attacks in Afghanistan, with reports suggesting 19 Pakistani troops and three Afghan civilians were killed. The retaliation was celebrated in Afghanistan's Khost province, with thousands showing support for the Afghan military and denouncing Pakistan's actions. The incident has heightened tensions between the two nations, with Pakistan accusing the Taliban of not controlling cross-border militant activity—a claim the Taliban denies, asserting that it does not permit attacks on other countries from Afghan soil. Associated Press CNN 

AFRICA

U.N. Security Council approves new Somalia peacekeeping mission amid insurgency, violence. The U.N. Security Council has approved the establishment of a new African Union force in Somalia, called the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), to combat the Islamist group al-Shabab. This new mission will replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, whose mandate ends on December 31. Fourteen council members voted in favor, while the United States abstained due to concerns about funding mechanisms. Somalia, plagued by decades of civil war, al-Shabab insurgency, and climate catastrophes, currently has 11,000 pledged troops for AUSSOM under bilateral agreements. Egypt has confirmed its participation in the force, while Ethiopia and Burundi have said they will not contribute troops. The resolution allows for potential U.N. funding of up to 75% for African-led missions, but the U.S. opposed immediate implementation of this mechanism, citing unmet conditions. The force is set to deploy in January to stabilize Somalia. VOA Reuters The Guardian 

Senegal to shutter ‘all foreign military bases,’ in action targeting French soldiers in the country. Senegal's Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko on Friday announced the closure of all foreign military bases in the country, a move primarily targeting French troops, as no other foreign forces maintain bases there. This decision aligns with broader regional backlash against France’s influence in West Africa; several countries, including Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, have already expelled French soldiers in recent years. This announcement, made during a general policy statement to the National Assembly, lacked a specific timeline but echoed a recent statement by President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who declared that French troops would soon leave Senegal. Paris has faced growing criticism from African leaders for what they perceive as a heavy-handed and outdated approach to the continent. This development also comes in the wake of France’s recent military withdrawals from Chad and other nations as part of a "reconfiguration" of its military presence in Africa. France has indicated plans to reduce its troop levels in Africa, including the 350 soldiers currently stationed in Senegal, and shift its focus to defense training and targeted support based on individual countries' needs. Senegal’s stance reflects the wider regional sentiment against France's colonial legacy and its military footprint in Africa. Associated Press Deutsche Welle  

Insurgents in Congo kill at least 21 during week of Christmas. At least 21 people were killed this week in attacks by ADF rebels linked to the Islamic State group in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, according to local sources. The attacks occurred near Manguredjipa, a mineral-rich town frequently targeted by the ADF. On December 21, six people were killed in Robinet, followed by 12 murders in Kodjo on December 22, and three more in Makele on Christmas Day. The ADF, originally from Uganda, has operated in the nation’s northeast since the 1990s, killing thousands of civilians and destroying countless lives. In 2019, the group pledged allegiance to IS, which now claims responsibility for some of its attacks. Despite a joint military operation launched by Uganda and the Congo in 2021, the offensive has failed to stop ADF attacks. The rebels remain scattered in remote areas, making them difficult to locate. North Kivu province also faces conflict with the M23 rebel movement, backed by Rwanda, further south. VOA

Chadians head to the polls in controversial parliamentary election likely to solidify president's power. Chad held parliamentary and regional elections on Sunday, marking the end of a three-year transitional period from military rule, though turnout was low, and the main opposition boycotted the vote. The elections are the first in more than a decade and come after junta leader Mahamat Idriss Deby, who took power in 2021 after the death of his father, won a contested presidential election earlier this year. Approximately 8 million voters were registered to elect 188 legislators and representatives at provincial and municipal levels, but polling stations in the capital N’Djamena saw sparse attendance. Opposition parties, including the main Transformers party led by Succes Masra, criticized the elections as a sham intended to prolong Deby’s rule, and accused authorities of planning to manipulate the results. The elections come amid significant challenges for Chad, including security threats from Boko Haram and strained relations with France. Analysts highlighted concerns about the lack of credible opposition and the risk of democracy being undermined during the transitional process, which has included a national dialogue, a constitutional referendum, and elections over the past three years. Official results are expected in about two weeks. Associated Press Reuters France 24 Al Jazeera 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

AI data centers could be draining U.S. power grid. AI data centers may be negatively impacting the U.S. power grid in both rural and urban regions, according to a recent Bloomberg report. Data from Whisker Labs and DC Byte suggests that households near significant data center activity experience "bad harmonics," which refers to distorted electrical power flow. This distortion could damage appliances, increase the risk of electrical fires, and cause power outages. AI data centers, with their volatile energy demands, are particularly challenging for grids to handle. This issue is particularly prevalent in areas like Chicago or the "data center alley" in Northern Virginia. However, some utilities, like Chicago's Commonwealth Edison, have disputed the findings and questioned the data's accuracy. TechCrunch Bloomberg Business Insider Newsmax 

U.S. identifies 9th telecom firm as victim of Salt Typhoon. Nine U.S. telecommunications companies have been breached in a large-scale Chinese espionage campaign, expanding the list of known victims in the "Salt Typhoon" operation, according to Anne Neuberger, Deputy National Security Adviser for Cyber and Emerging Technology. The breach has targeted unclassified communications of senior U.S. officials, including those of President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance, as well as metadata from many Americans. The additional victim was discovered after federal guidance was issued to telecom providers, detailing Chinese hacking techniques and detection methods. While China denies responsibility, the incident has triggered bipartisan concerns in Congress, as well as calls for stronger cybersecurity measures, including network segmentation to limit breaches. The administration is pushing for stricter regulations, such as an FCC proposal requiring telecom providers to adopt and annually report cybersecurity practices, with penalties for noncompliance. Efforts also include using government procurement to enforce cybersecurity standards and considering a ban on China Telecom. Neuberger warned the full extent of the breach may never be known due to the hackers erasing their tracks and inadequate logging by companies. The Record Associated Press BankInfoSecurity 

Risky options trading soared in 2024. Options trading is surging to record levels, with an average of 48 million contracts traded daily in 2024, marking the fifth consecutive year of growth, according to the Options Clearing Corp. While traditionally used by professionals for risk management, options have gained popularity among amateur traders seeking high-risk, high-reward bets, particularly on volatile stocks. As per Bloomberg Intelligence, retail traders now account for 29% of U.S. options activity, up from 23% in 2020. A significant portion of trading involves "zero-day-to-expiry" (0DTE) options, which allow for extremely short-term bets and now make up over half of S&P 500 options activity. Single-stock options trades have also risen, with Nvidia overtaking Tesla as the most popular stock for these trades. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and speculative rallies in assets like bitcoin have fueled this trend. Traders are increasingly betting on volatile stocks, such as Nvidia and MicroStrategy, leading to dramatic gains and losses. Crypto-related options have also boomed, driven by Trump's support for the crypto industry and the debut of bitcoin ETF options. Analysts warn this surge in speculative activity could exacerbate market volatility, especially if a correction occurs, potentially sustaining high options trading volumes. Wall Street Journal

Wall Street predicts gold prices will surge in 2025. Gold has had a stellar year in 2024, posting a 27% gain to $2,617.20 per troy ounce, making it one of its best years since 2010. Analysts predict prices could climb even higher in 2025, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup targeting $3,000 per ounce. The anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 are expected to make gold more attractive by lowering the opportunity cost of holding it, especially as investors move away from low-yield money-market funds. Geopolitical tensions have also bolstered gold's status as a safe-haven asset. Central banks, particularly in China and other emerging markets, have significantly increased gold reserves to reduce reliance on dollar-based assets, a trend accelerated by Western sanctions on Russia. This has shifted global reserve strategies toward gold as a secure alternative. Unlike other commodities, gold’s limited industrial use shields its demand from economic slowdowns or trade disruptions, allowing it to maintain its value as a store of wealth. Historical patterns also suggest that gold prices tend to rise in consecutive years following substantial gains, reinforcing expectations for continued growth in 2025. Amid inflation concerns and global uncertainty, gold remains a favored investment, with its momentum likely to carry into the next year. Wall Street Journal  

Recent ransomware attack not linked to Cleo vulnerability, says Blue Yonder. Blue Yonder, a supply chain management company recently affected by a ransomware attack, is investigating new claims by the Clop ransomware gang about data theft through a vulnerability in Cleo file-sharing software. Clop, which has exploited vulnerabilities in several file transfer tools, claims to have stolen data from Blue Yonder and dozens of other organizations via the Cleo software. Blue Yonder has patched the vulnerability and stated it has no evidence linking this incident to the ransomware attack it experienced in November, carried out by the Termite gang. The November attack disrupted operations for major clients, including Starbucks and U.K. supermarkets, and allegedly involved the theft of 680 GB of sensitive data. Clop, meanwhile, has a history of exploiting file-sharing software vulnerabilities, targeting tools like MOVEit and Accellion, and selling stolen data for ransom rather than damaging systems. Its campaigns have had widespread global impacts, affecting governments, corporations, and millions of individuals. Clop is estimated to have earned up to $100 million from its MOVEit attacks alone. Blue Yonder, acquired by Panasonic in 2021, is assessing the impact of the latest claims and has restored most systems from the previous attack. The Record 

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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