Report for Monday, December 23, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Monday, December 23, 2024

Mossad chief reportedly urges attack on Iran in response to Houthi attacks

Putin vows ‘more destruction' on Ukraine after Kazan drone attack

Trump says he is waiting for a meeting with Putin to end the war in Ukraine

Two U.S. Navy F/A 18 pilots safe after being shot down in Red Sea in friendly fire incident

China reiterates Taiwan as a 'red line' issue and denounces new US military aid to Taipei

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

2024: 10 Events That Changed the World.  In 2024, the Middle East underwent significant upheaval, most notably with the unexpected and swift overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. This rapid regime change, accomplished by a coalition of rebel groups in just 11 days, ended over five decades of Assad family rule and Syria's 13-year civil war. The event had far-reaching implications, diminishing the influence of Assad's allies, Russia and Iran, and prompting military actions from neighboring countries like Turkey and Israel. This development was among several pivotal global events in 2024 that reshaped international relations and security dynamics. The Cipher Brief 

Memo to the 47th President: Give Ukraine What It Needs to Win. In a memo to the President-elect, former U.S. Ambassador to NATO, Douglas E. Lute, emphasizes the urgency of providing Ukraine with comprehensive military support to counter Russian aggression. He advocates for a robust campaign of long-range strikes to disrupt Russian forces occupying Ukrainian territory, suggesting that American contractors could be deployed to sustain U.S. systems in Ukraine. Lute warns that the current war of attrition favors Russia and that without decisive action, the conflict may continue to stalemate. He concludes by urging the incoming administration to act swiftly, stating, "It is not too late to do the right thing and give Ukraine what it needs."  The Cipher Brief 

In Lithuania, Fears of Being ‘Next on the Menu’ for Russian Aggression.  Cipher Brief Expert and former senior CIA officer Ralph Goff highlights Lithuania's growing concern over Russian influence in the region, particularly as Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaches its third year and "gray-zone" activities like cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation campaigns persist. Goff underscores Lithuania's fears of being next in line for Russian aggression, fueled by Moscow's historical claims over the Baltic states. Lithuania has demonstrated strong support for Ukraine through NATO-aligned defense spending and intelligence sharing, but skepticism remains regarding international security guarantees. The interview emphasizes the geopolitical stakes for Europe and the U.S., framing the ongoing conflicts as battles of values between democratic states and authoritarian regimes, including Russia, Iran, and North Korea.  The Cipher Brief 

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israeli strikes in Gaza kill at least 28 over the weekend, medics say, as Pope Francis and the UN condemns attack.  At least 28 people, including children, have been killed in a wave of Israeli military strikes across Gaza Strip, BBC reported Sunday.  A school in Gaza City where displaced families sought shelter was hit, killing eight people, including four children.  The Israeli military said a Hamas command center was inside the school compound.  The head of the World Health Organization issued a plea for Israel to stop firing near Kamal Adwan hospital in north Gaza.  Hospital director Dr Hussam Abu Safiya said Israeli fire hit the facility’s generators.  "Anyone who steps outside the hospital is at risk of being targeted," he said. A strike on a home in Deir al-Balah late Saturday killed at least eight, including three women and two children, according to Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, the Associated Press reported.  On Sunday, Pope Francis condemned the Israeli attacks on Gaza, for a second day in a row. "“Yesterday children have been bombed. This is cruelty, this is not war,” Francis said during his annual Christmas greetings. On Sunday, he called for a ceasefire.  Israeli authorities allowed Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, leader of the Catholic Church in the Holy Land, to conduct a rare mass at the Holy Family Church in Gaza City.  Associated Press BBC   Associated Press   Reuters  

Mossad chief reportedly urges attack on Iran in response to Houthi attacks.  Mossad chief David (Dedi) Barnea reportedly called for a direct strike on Iran to quell attacks on Israel by the Houthi militia, Israel’s Channel 13 News reported Sunday. "We need to target the head; striking only the Houthis won’t be enough," Barnea reportedly said during meetings with Israeli political and security leaders.  The government did not comment publicly on the report.   Jerusalem Post

Hamas reportedly provides signs of life for a few hostages as truce talks continue.  The Times of Israel reported Sunday that Hamas has provided signs of life for several hostages. It quoted an unnamed official as saying that Israel knows the whereabouts of most of the hostages The official said Israel would not accept an end to the war as part of a deal, but instead would agree to  a “prolonged ceasefire.”  Times of Israel 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Zelensky’s slow shift toward negotiating for Ukraine’s future. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has shifted his stance, emphasizing long-term security over immediate territorial recovery as battlefield struggles and Donald Trump’s presidency loom. Zelensky told Sky News that NATO membership could halt the war, enabling diplomacy to reclaim Russian-occupied land. Analysts, like Michael McFaul, suggest this shift aligns with Trump’s priorities while ensuring Ukraine secures guarantees. Zelensky views NATO membership as critical, rejecting Russian demands for neutrality and disarmament. NATO's Mark Rutte emphasized that Zelensky must negotiate from military strength. Despite the peace talk momentum, skepticism persists about agreements with Vladimir Putin, who remains focused on Ukrainian capitulation. Washington Post

Trump says he is waiting for a meeting with Putin to end the war in Ukraine. President-elect Donald Trump said in Arizona on Sunday that he anticipates meeting Vladimir Putin soon to end the war in Ukraine, calling the conflict "horrible" and claiming "millions of soldiers" have died. Trump reiterated, "This war would have never happened if I was president," and promised to prevent World War III. Putin has expressed readiness to meet Trump at any time. “President Putin said he wants to meet with me as soon as possible. So we have to wait for this,” Trump told a conservative conference in Phoenix. “But we have to end that war.” Trump's nominee for special envoy, Keith Kellogg, has voiced optimism about potential peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow. Ukrainsksa Pravda Bloomberg

Ukraine Bets a Free Market for Weapons Production Can Out-Innovate Russia. Ukraine has embraced a hyper-capitalist model to bolster its defense industry, relying on startups like Ark Robotics to innovate rapidly amid Russia's invasion. With over 200 new munitions companies emerging since 2022, Ukraine’s private firms have focused primarily on drone production. Ark Robotics, for example, has raised over $1 million and developed 20 iterations of its explosive land drones, which are already used in combat. Kyiv supports these startups with tax cuts, deregulation, grants, and the Brave1 platform to attract foreign investment, though scaling production remains challenging. Issues such as power outages, high costs, and limited infrastructure hinder manufacturing, with some firms considering relocating operations abroad. Unlike Russia's state-driven arms production, Ukraine’s open-market strategy fosters innovation but depends heavily on Western aid. Officials hope the model will offset Russia's superior resources, enabling Ukraine to hold ground while adapting to the fast-changing demands of modern warfare. Wall Street Journal

Ukraine’s First All-Robot Assault Force Just Won Its First Battle. Ukraine’s 13th National Guard Brigade conducted its first all-robot combined-arms assault in Kharkiv Oblast, using crawling and flying drones to target Russian positions, officials said Friday. The operation, involving dozens of robotic units, highlights Ukraine’s technological innovation but underscores its manpower challenges in Russia's 34-month war. The brigade, defending a five-mile stretch near Hlyboke, operates with 2,000 personnel against 6,000 Russian troops—a disparity mirrored along the 800-mile front. The assault employed surveillance drones, explosive robots, and gun-equipped ground vehicles. Robots excel at attacking. But holding ground requires human infantry for sustained defense. Robots are prone to breakdowns and jamming. Despite clearing Russian positions, the brigade likely didn’t hold them. Forbes Kyiv Independent

Sending Troops to Help Russia Was North Korea’s Idea, U.S. Officials Say.  North Korea has deployed at least 10,000 troops to Russia, embedding them with Russian units to counter Ukrainian forces holding territory in the Kursk region. U.S. intelligence suggests the deployment was initiated by North Korea rather than Russia, with Kim Jong-un possibly seeking future diplomatic and technological support from Moscow. Despite sending its best-trained soldiers, North Korean troops face challenges such as malnourishment and lack of combat experience. Meanwhile, Ukraine's incursion into Kursk has disrupted Russian offensives and inflicted significant casualties on Russian forces, though both sides are experiencing heavy losses as the war nears its three-year mark. Western officials are concerned about the alliance between North Korea, Russia, and Iran, which bolsters Russia’s military capabilities. The U.S. has responded with new sanctions targeting North Korean and Russian actors. As Russia depletes its military resources and faces mounting casualties, questions loom about the sustainability of its campaign, particularly as Ukraine struggles with manpower and weapon shortages, and the incoming Trump administration promises to push for peace negotiations. NY Times

Satellite Images Show North Korea Boosting Arms Flow to Russia. North Korea is intensifying military support for Russia's war in Ukraine, supplying millions of artillery shells, rockets, and missiles while deploying 12,000 troops, according to Western and Ukrainian officials. Pyongyang is also expanding weapons production, supported by Russian fuel and technical expertise. Andriy Kovalenko, a Ukrainian army officer heading a government unit tasked with countering Russian disinformation, said 60% of the artillery and mortar shells used by Russia in Ukraine now come from Pyongyang. “North Korean ammunition is holding the Russian defenses,” Kovalenko said. North Korea’s missiles now make up nearly a third of Russia’s ballistic missile launches at Ukraine this year, according to Ukrainian officials. In return for weapons and soldiers, Pyongyang gains oil, cash, and potentially nuclear technology. The arms deal with Russia could have earned up to $5.5 billion for North Korea since the start of the war in Ukraine, according to one expert. Wall Street Journal

North Korea is preparing for additional troop deployment, suicide drone supply to Russia. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff reported Monday that North Korea is preparing to deploy additional troops and military equipment to Russia, including suicide drones, to support Moscow’s war on Ukraine. Roughly 12,000 North Korean troops are believed to have already been sent, with an estimated 1,100 casualties. Intelligence suggests Pyongyang also supplies rocket launchers and artillery while moving to manufacture and supply suicide drones. North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia were given fake military documents with Russian names and birthplaces, the Ukrainian military said, amid claims from Kyiv that Russia is trying to conceal the presence of foreign fighters on the battlefield. Yonhap News Agency Reuters CNN

Ukraine faces difficult decisions over an acute shortage of frontline troops. Ukraine's military faces a critical manpower shortage after nearly three years of full-scale war with Russia. Older men now fill frontline ranks, and President Volodymyr Zelensky resists lowering the mobilization age from 25 to 18. Recruitment challenges persist as public sentiment shifts. A recent poll found that 46% of Ukrainians see "no shame in evading military service." Soldiers advocate for incentives and training to sustain Ukraine’s defense. The Guardian

Residents of Ukraine's besieged Pokrovsk hunker down as Russia advances. In the besieged Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, residents like 64-year-old Oleksandr Sopov endure relentless Russian advances. "What should I be afraid of? I've lived already," Sopov said, highlighting the resilience of 10,000 remaining residents despite destroyed infrastructure, power outages, and shelling. Many refuse to leave, citing financial hardship. Russia’s advance, deploying 70,000 troops near Pokrovsk, threatens Ukraine's eastern supply lines. Casualties weigh heavily, but medic Khrystyna Siomova said, "Every step we take is not just our own, but a collective step together with those we've lost." Survival remains the immediate goal amid escalating violence. Reuters

Ukrainian military pulls back from areas in the east. Ukrainian forces withdrew from Uspenivka and Trudove in Donetsk to avoid encirclement, according to military statements on Friday. Intense defensive battles continue, with 18 clashes reported near Kurakhove as Russian troops advance. Russia claims control of Uspenivka, Novopustynka, and Trudove. Ukraine’s General Staff said the withdrawal allows units to regroup and sustain regional operations. Reuters

William Burns visits Ukraine for the last time as CIA chief.  President Volodymyr Zelensky said that CIA Director William Burns visited Ukraine on Saturday, marking his final trip in the role. Typically, such meetings are undisclosed. Burns has played a key role in U.S.-Ukraine relations since the start of Russia’s large-scale invasion in 2022. Zelensky expressed gratitude and best wishes to Burns and his family. Ukrainska Pravda Kyiv Independent 

US to announce final package of new arms for Ukraine in coming days. The Biden administration is set to announce its final $1.2 billion Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) package in the coming days, allocating remaining funds for air defense interceptors and artillery munitions. Unlike drawdowns from U.S. stockpiles, USAI funds procure new equipment, often taking months or years to reach Ukraine. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion, the U.S. has provided $175 billion in aid, with $61.4 billion allocated for security assistance. About half of the security assistance has come through the USAI program, and the rest has gone toward pulling from existing military stocks via presidential drawdown authority, which has $5.6 billion remaining. Reuters

More Americans Favor Quick End to Russia-Ukraine War. A recent Gallup poll reveals Americans are nearly evenly split on U.S. involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war, with 50% favoring a quick end, even if Ukraine loses territory, and 48% supporting prolonged efforts to reclaim it. Partisan divisions persist: Republicans favor reduced aid and a swift conclusion, while Democrats prefer sustained support. Opinions on U.S. assistance have shifted, with 37% saying the U.S. is doing too much, 31% the right amount, and 30% not enough. Most Americans (68%) believe neither side is winning the war, reflecting growing uncertainty about its outcome. Gallup

IMF predicts the war will end in late 2025 or in 2026. The International Monetary Fund forecasts Russia’s war on Ukraine could end by late 2025 under its baseline scenario or mid-2026 in a downside scenario. For 2025, Ukraine’s GDP growth is projected at 4%, with inflation averaging 10.3%, revised upward due to rising food prices, wage growth, and energy costs. A tighter labor market is expected to drive income and consumption growth, while the economy could benefit from energy infrastructure upgrades and power generation projects. The external financing gap is estimated at $148 billion under the baseline scenario and $177.2 billion in the downside scenario. A prolonged war would result in deeper economic shocks, slower recovery, higher inflation, and fiscal deficits exceeding 20% through 2026. International reserves are expected to remain below the recommended threshold until 2027. On Monday, Ukraine received a $1.1 billion loan tranche from the IMF. Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said Ukraine had already received $5.4 billion from the IMF so far this year. Kyiv relies heavily on foreign financial aid to cover social expenditure and to support the economy. Ukraine allocates its own revenues to security and defense. Ukrainska Pravda International Monetary Fund Reuters

Ukraine sends drones deep into Russia — as Kremlin launches 113 of its own in fierce exchange. Ukraine launched drones into Kazan, Russia, striking residential and industrial areas on Saturday in Tatarstan, 600 miles from the front lines. Eight drones targeted luxury buildings, an industrial site, and a river; no casualties were reported. Flights were temporarily halted, and mass events were canceled. The strikes align with Ukraine's strategy of targeting Russian military-linked infrastructure while avoiding civilian casualties. Simultaneously, Russia launched 113 drones at Ukraine, with Ukrainian forces downing 57 and jamming 56. Russian attacks hit civilian targets, including an oncology center in Kherson and residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv, injuring over a dozen people. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized continued strikes on Russian military facilities while condemning Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure as deliberate acts of cruelty. New York Post Reuters RFE/RL Associated Press

Putin vows ‘more destruction' on Ukraine after Kazan drone attack. Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed increased "destruction" against Ukraine after a drone attack on Kazan, 1,000 kilometers from the frontlines, damaged a luxury apartment block without causing casualties. “Whoever, and however much they try to destroy, they will face many times more destruction themselves and will regret what they are trying to do in our country,” Putin said during a televised meeting on Sunday. Putin reiterated previous threats to target Kyiv with hypersonic missiles if attacks on Russian soil continue. France 24 Kyiv Independent

Ukrainian drones hit a Russian fuel depot for the second time this month. Ukrainian drones struck Russia's Stalnoy Kon oil terminal in the Oryol region for the second time in December, igniting a massive blaze. Sunday’s attack targeted fuel supplies for Russian forces, part of a broader Ukrainian campaign against energy infrastructure. Russia claimed 20 drones targeted the region. Meanwhile, Moscow launched 103 drones at Ukraine, with Kyiv’s defenses downing 52. Russia also reported capturing two settlements in Ukraine's northeast, while retaliatory drone strikes caused civilian casualties in Kherson. Associated Press

Ukraine strike kills 6 in Russia's Kursk region. Ukraine launched a missile attack on Russia's Kursk region on Friday, killing six people, including a child, and injuring 10. The strike, using U.S.-supplied HIMARS rockets, targeted Rylsk, damaging homes, schools, and infrastructure. This followed a Russian missile attack on Kyiv that killed one, injured 13, and damaged embassies and schools. Russia pledged retaliation, while tensions escalated with accusations of targeting civilians on both sides. Voice of America Reuters 

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 3, injure 3 over the past day. Russian attacks on Ukraine killed three civilians and injured three others in the past day, authorities reported on Monday. Ukraine's Air Force intercepted 47 of 72 Shahed drones launched overnight, with 25 lost in airspace. In Kharkiv Oblast, a drone attack left a man in serious condition, while strikes on 28 locations in Kherson Oblast killed three and injured one, damaging infrastructure. Another individual was injured in Khmelnytskyi Oblast during drone strikes. Kyiv Independent

Zelensky says Ukraine's membership of NATO is 'achievable.' President Volodymyr Zelensky told Ukrainian diplomats that NATO membership for Ukraine is "achievable" but requires active efforts to persuade allies. While NATO has promised eventual membership, no invitation or timeline has been set. Zelensky emphasized that Kyiv's accession would stabilize global relations and prevent future Russian aggression. He also called for interim security guarantees from Europe. Moscow cites Ukraine's NATO aspirations as a key reason for its 2022 invasion. Reuters

Five months on, Ukraine clings to Kursk amid doubts over the operation. Ukraine’s five-month operation in Russia’s Kursk region faces intensifying Russian counterattacks, with Moscow deploying 60,000 troops, including North Korean fighters. Ukrainian troops cling to a small foothold, viewing it as vital leverage in potential peace talks. Ukraine has destroyed key supply depots using U.S.-provided ATACMS missiles but lost 40% of its gains. Commanders describe Russian tactics, including “meat assaults” and motorcycle groups, as desperate attempts to reclaim Kursk. Ukrainian medics face dire conditions, treating over 1,200 wounded amid constant drone threats and glide bomb strikes. The operation has forced Russia to divert troops from other fronts and damaged its infrastructure. Despite skepticism about the mission’s effectiveness, Ukrainian commanders emphasize its strategic importance, arguing it limits Russian aggression and shields Ukrainian territory. “We will not go anywhere,” affirmed Oleh Shyriaiev, commander of the 225th Assault Battalion. Washington Post

Russia Taps Soviet-Era Stockpiles as Armored-Vehicle Supply Dwindles. Russia has lost over 11,000 armored combat vehicles, including 3,600 tanks, in its war on Ukraine, forcing it to rely on Soviet-era stockpiles. Analysts estimate Russia has around 2,600 tanks in reserve, with replenishment efforts relying on refurbishing decades-old models. Sanctions have restricted access to Western components, prompting Moscow to source materials through third countries and deepen ties with North Korea. Military spending has soared, with Russia producing over 100 tanks monthly. Adjusted battlefield tactics, such as prioritizing infantry assaults, have preserved vehicles but at a high human cost, with daily casualties averaging nearly 1,000. The war grinds on. Wall Street Journal

After years of war, 6.8 million Ukrainian refugees’ lives are still mired in uncertainty. The lives of 6.8 million Ukrainian refugees remain uncertain after nearly three years of war. Many, like Yana Felos, have built new lives abroad but feel disconnected from Ukraine, with Felos saying, “I just started a new life from scratch.” Others, like Kharkiv police officer Victoria Rybka, returned to Ukraine, citing family and resilience. President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasizes the need for security guarantees to encourage repatriation, but economist Ella Libanova warns of a "hollowed-out population" and brain drain as refugees adapt abroad. Despite hardships, some Ukrainians long to rebuild their lives in their homeland, waiting for safety and normalcy. CNN

Poland has registered 988,000 war refugees from Ukraine. Nearly 1.5 million Ukrainians remain in Poland, with 988,000 registered as war refugees. Since June, their numbers have grown steadily. About 20% of those arriving since February 2022 consider staying permanently, while 28% have gained a good command of Polish. Among pre-war Ukrainian residents, 50% plan to stay, and over two-thirds speak Polish fluently. Refugees, primarily women, rely on employment for 76% of their income. According to Poland's Ministry of the Interior, they receive access to education, healthcare, pensions, and child benefits but are excluded from basic income support. MSN

Putin meets Slovak prime minister to discuss war as Ukraine ends gas transit. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Sunday after Ukraine refused to extend a five-year gas transit deal that expires this year. Slovakia, reliant on gas transiting Ukraine, faces increased costs without a deal. Fico’s visit, criticized by Slovak opposition, marks a rare trip by a European Union leader to Moscow since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Fico, in power since 2023, opposes military aid to Kyiv and sanctions on Moscow. "Putin and I exchanged views on the military situation in Ukraine, the possibilities of an early peaceful end to the war, and on mutual relations between the Slovak Republic and the Russian Federation, which I intend to standardize," Fico wrote. The Tass state news agency reported that Sunday’s visit marks the first in-person meeting between Putin and Fico in eight years. The Czech Republic's foreign affairs minister, Jan Lipavský, slammed Fico, saying that Prague had “secured independence from Russian energy supplies so we wouldn’t have to crawl in front of a mass murderer.” Reuters Politico EU Kyiv Independent Financial Times EUObserver

Russia and Ukraine fail to agree on Azerbaijani-brokered gas deal, SOCAR source says. Russia and Ukraine have failed to reach an Azerbaijani-mediated agreement to extend the transit of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine, according to SOCAR. The deal, allowing nearly 15 billion cubic meters of gas to flow annually, expires on Jan. 1. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed continued transit only if payments to Russia are withheld until the war ends—a condition Moscow rejects. Azerbaijan's SOCAR has mediated negotiations for nearly a year, but disagreements persist. Ukraine suggests transit may resume for non-Russian gas upon the European Commission's request. Reuters

EXPLAINER–What happens when Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine stops? The expected halt of Russian natural gas transit via Ukraine would affect relatively modest volumes, as only 15 bcm—8% of peak flows in 2018-19—was transported in 2023. While alternatives like TurkStream and suppliers from Norway, the U.S., and Qatar have reduced European reliance on Moscow, Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia remain dependent on Russian gas. Ukraine earns about $1 billion annually in transit fees, and Gazprom could earn around $5 billion from Ukrainian transit alone, despite losing European Union market share. However, Kyiv’s refusal to allow payments to Moscow during the war complicates new agreements. Hungary, while favoring continued transit via Ukraine, is prepared to rely on TurkStream if necessary. Efforts to mediate by Azerbaijan have stalled, leaving the EU divided between members who reject Russian gas entirely and others who prioritize its economic advantages. Russia’s loss of gas markets caused Gazprom’s $7 billion net loss in 2023. Reuters

How Will Ukraine Keep the Lights on This Winter? With Russia intensifying airstrikes on Ukraine’s power grid, officials are scrambling to prevent an energy crisis this winter. Measures include scavenging parts from a disassembled Lithuanian power plant, leasing Turkish “powerships” to supply electricity to Odesa, and requesting United Nations monitoring at critical substations to deter attacks. Despite these efforts, experts warn of prolonged blackouts as Ukraine’s battered grid struggles to meet winter demand. Two years of Russian strikes have depleted equipment reserves, leaving Ukraine reliant on Soviet-era spare parts and vulnerable to ongoing targeting of substations connected to nuclear plants. New York Times

Russian chemical weapons chief Kirillov is buried with military honors. Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, Russia's chief of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Protection Troops, was buried with military honors after being killed on Dec. 17 in a bomb attack outside his Moscow home, for which the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claimed responsibility. Kirillov was posthumously awarded the Hero of Russia medal. Russia launched missile strikes on Kyiv, reportedly targeting an SBU command center. A suspect in Kirillov's assassination is in pre-trial detention. Reuters

Kremlin says any new G7 oil sanctions would backfire and it will adapt. The Kremlin warned that proposed G7 sanctions on Russian oil, including lowering the price cap to $40 or banning crude handling, would destabilize global energy markets and harm sanctioning nations. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated Russia would take measures to protect its economic interests. The comments follow reports of G7 discussions on tightening restrictions on Russian oil. Reuters

Russia is executing more and more Ukrainian prisoners of war. The execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war by Russian forces has become increasingly systemic, with 147 confirmed cases since the full-scale invasion began, 127 of them in 2024. Ukrainian prosecutors are investigating atrocities, including beheadings and mass shootings, some filmed by Russian troops. Impunity and lack of Russian accountability fuel these war crimes despite international laws protecting POWs. Families of victims continue to seek answers. Human Rights Watch highlights Russia's widespread abuses, urging accountability. BBC

Ukrainian commander of ‘mock crucifixion’ unit accused of corruption. Colonel Oleh Poberezhniuk, commander of Ukraine's 211th Pontoon Bridge Brigade, faces corruption charges for allegedly using soldiers to build his house while they received combat bonuses. A Ukrainian newspaper investigation revealed abuses within the brigade, including mock crucifixions, beatings, and extortion. Poberezhniuk’s godson allegedly coerced soldiers for bribes, threatening frontline deployment. The scandal adds to Ukraine’s military challenges, including corruption, manpower shortages, and high desertion rates amid the war with Russia. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov pledged accountability, calling the situation unacceptable. Whistleblowers continue exposing misconduct, highlighting systemic issues eroding public trust in Ukraine’s armed forces. The Telegraph

Media identifies nearly 85,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine. Journalists have identified 84,761 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine, though the true number is likely higher. U.K. estimates place total Russian casualties, including wounded, at over 750,000. Russia’s recent gains in eastern Ukraine and Kursk have come at a heavy cost, with record daily losses of 2,030 troops in November and total November casualties exceeding 45,000. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine says Russian general deliberately targeted Reuters staff in August missile strike. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has accused Russian Colonel General Alexei Kim of deliberately targeting Reuters journalists in an August missile strike on Kramatorsk’s Sapphire Hotel. The attack killed safety adviser Ryan Evans and injured two Reuters staff. The SBU alleges Kim knowingly ordered the strike despite understanding civilians were present, using an Iskander-M ballistic missile. Kremlin officials deny targeting civilians. Reuters called for accountability and emphasized the need for journalists' safety. While the SBU has formally named Kim as a suspect, evidence remains undisclosed, and the investigation continues. Kim and Russia's defense ministry have not responded to requests for comment. Reuters

In Ukraine, the grueling search for the missing on the battlefield. Ukraine faces immense challenges in locating tens of thousands missing in Russia’s war. Bodies are often unidentifiable. Ukraine lacked a centralized data system before the war. On Dec. 4, the Ukrainian health ministry partnered with the International Commission on Missing Persons to establish an Integrated Data Management System, set to launch in 2025. This system will use DNA, fingerprints, and other data for identification. Vitali Povstyany, head of Kyiv's forensics department, acknowledged past neglect of such efforts but noted the war has brought urgency to their mission. Russia’s secrecy compounds the difficulty for families. Le Monde

NATO chief Rutte says Zelensky's criticism of Germany's Scholz is unfair. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's criticism of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz unjustified. While Germany has hesitated to provide Taurus missiles, Rutte supports their supply without restrictions. Zelensky criticized Scholz’s November call with Vladimir Putin, claiming it undermined efforts to isolate Russia. Reuters

Over 1,000 Applications Submitted to Ukrainian Legion in Poland. Over 1,000 applications have been submitted to the Ukrainian Legion, a volunteer unit of Ukraine’s Armed Forces formed in Poland. Ambassador Vasyl Bondar confirmed recruits undergo NATO-led training before deployment to Ukraine. The first volunteers took an oath in November, and further enrollment is scheduled for January, with high hopes for continued growth. Militarnyi

‘Collapsing And Rotting’ Ukrainian Chain Of Command May Have Sent Troops To Die In Zaporizhzhia Oblast Pointlessly. Ukrainian forces’ recent advance in the swampy village of Kamyanske has drawn criticism, with member of parliament Maryana Bezuhla condemning senior military leadership for poor decision-making. She likened the operation to Russian "meat assaults," risking lives for minimal gains while key positions in Donetsk Oblast face heavy Russian assaults. A Russian blogger suggested the isolated Ukrainian platoon in Kamyanske will likely retreat or be destroyed. Forbes

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, Dec. 20-Sunday, Dec. 22. SUNDAY– Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his belief that Russia should have launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine earlier than February 2022, blaming Ukraine and the West for "misleading" Russia over the Minsk II Accords. Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the Stalnoy Kon oil depot in Oryol Oblast with drones, causing a fire and highlighting the impact of sanctions and strikes on Russian oil refineries. Russian forces executed five Ukrainian prisoners of war in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. North Korea may have transferred at least four additional ballistic missiles to Russia. SATURDAY–Russian President Vladimir Putin is expanding military-patriotic education programs for youth in Russia and occupied Ukraine, aligning with the Kremlin’s "Year of the Defender of the Fatherland" in 2025. Ukrainian forces targeted Kazan with drone strikes on Dec. 21, reportedly aiming for military-related objects. The Russian Ministry of Defense is promoting its Unmanned Systems Forces, following Putin's order to formalize the new combat arms branch. FRIDAY–Russian ballistic missile strikes on Friday damaged multiple embassies in Kyiv, causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Ukrainian forces conducted their first ground attack using unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) and FPV drones, showcasing technological innovation in offsetting manpower limitations. The Kremlin continues scapegoating Kursk Oblast officials for failures in responding to Ukraine's incursion. Mediazona reported that at least 20,364 Russian soldiers have been killed in action in Ukraine since January 2024.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, Toresk, Vulhedar, and Kurakhove. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War Saturday-Institute for the Study of War Friday-Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Is Trump inviting China’s Xi to his inauguration to broker a Ukraine peace deal? Tetyana Malyarenko and Stefan Wolff argue that Donald Trump’s invitation to Xi Jinping for his inauguration is unlikely to result in a meaningful Ukraine peace deal. They contend that China benefits from the Russian Ukrainian war, as it weakens the West and keeps the U.S. preoccupied. While Trump’s plan aligns superficially with China’s previous peace initiatives, Beijing has little incentive to help end the war, which could reduce Russia’s dependence on China and shift global power dynamics unfavorably. Instead, China will likely prefer maintaining the status quo, ensuring its dominant position with Moscow. South China Morning Post

Opinion: Peace is not an option for Russia as Trump’s chosen envoy preps travel to Kyiv. Jonathan Sweet and Mark Toth argue that the Kremlin is intensifying efforts to win its war on Ukraine, rejecting peace as an option and demanding NATO’s capitulation. They highlight Russia's deployment of advanced weapons like hypersonic missiles and North Korean troops and artillery to bolster its offensive. The authors criticize the Biden administration's "just enough" support for Ukraine. They emphasize that peace on Vladimir Putin’s terms would jeopardize European security. They seek decisive action by Donald Trump and Keith Kellogg to change the current trajectory and secure Ukraine’s sovereignty. New York Post

Opinion: Putin Sends Trump a Ukraine Message.The Wall Street Journal editorial argues that Vladimir Putin’s claimed willingness for peace talks masks demands that would render Ukraine defenseless and solidify Russian gains. Referencing 2022 negotiations, Putin seeks Ukraine’s neutrality, disarmament, and NATO withdrawal. These terms would allow Russia to dominate Ukraine and encourage future aggression. Despite setbacks, including losing territory around Kyiv and breaking the Black Sea blockade, Russia continues its eastern offensive with China’s technology and North Korean support. Putin’s overtures to Donald Trump are seen as strategic, but the editorial warns that appeasing Putin risks a broader war. It urges Trump to avoid repeating Afghanistan’s failures. Wall Street Journal

THE AMERICAS

Is the age of American air superiority coming to an end? The growing effectiveness of air defense systems and the proliferation of drones are challenging Western air superiority. Ukraine's success in shooting down 87% of Russia’s 230 missiles during a massive Aug. 26 attack underscores air power's reduced effectiveness. Complex air defense systems from Russia and China, equipped with advanced sensors and long-range missiles, threaten Western aircraft and impede operations. U.S. forces now expect brief "windows of dominance" rather than sustained air supremacy. Shrinking air fleets, stretched budgets, and aging technology further strain readiness. While stealth jets and advanced drones are pursued, costs remain high, and Western dominance appears increasingly fragile. The Economist 

Trump floats idea to reassert U.S. control over Panama Canal.  President-elect Donald Trump threatened to reassert U.S. control over the Panama Canal on Sunday, accusing Panama of charging excessive rates to use the Central American passage.   Speaking to supporters in Arizona, Trump also said he would not let the canal fall into the "wrong hands," referring to China.  Later Sunday he posted an image on Truth Social, of an American flag flying over a narrow body of water, with the comment: "Welcome to the United States Canal!"  When Panama's president, Jose Raúl Mulino, responded by posting a video on social media saying, “The sovereignty and independence of our country are not negotiable," Trump fired back by reposting Mulino's response on Truth Social and writing, "We'll see about that!"  The Guardian Reuters The Hill Axios Telegraph Bloomberg   

House Republican refers to Elon Musk ‘as our prime minister’ as Trump rejects claims.  Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), interviewed on CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday,  said, ”We have a president, we have a vice president, we have a Speaker,” he said. “It feels like as if Elon Musk is our prime minister.” Musk, appointed to co-lead Trump’s “Department of Government Efficiency,” became deeply involved in the government spending negotiations in Congress. Speaking at conservative group Turning Point’s “America Fest” in Phoenix, Ariz., Sunday, Trump pushed back on the idea that Musk has attained the power of a president.   “No, he’s not gonna be president, that I can tell you,” Trump said .  “And I’m safe, you know why? He can’t be, he wasn’t born in this country.”  The Hill The Hill NBC Bloomberg Al Jazeera  

Trump reopens old debate on Greenland, says purchasing territory is key to national security. President-elect Donald Trump has once again seized the world’s wary attention, this time by reigniting his interest in buying Greenland. Trump logged on to Truth Social on Sunday, calling U.S. ownership of the Danish-controlled territory an "absolute necessity" for national security. He first proposed the idea of purchasing the territory in 2019, but Denmark quickly rejected the idea, with its prime minister calling the notion "absurd." Greenland's strategic importance has increased due to its location between the Arctic and North Atlantic and its role in U.S. and NATO defense, hosting a U.S. air base and radar station. Trump's renewed proposal coincided with his nomination of Ken Howery, a PayPal co-founder and former ambassador to Sweden, as U.S. ambassador to Denmark. Howery pledged to strengthen ties between the U.S., Denmark, and Greenland. The statement comes amidst other bold remarks from Trump, including suggesting that Washington retake the Panama Canal and hinting at the possibility of Canada becoming the 51st state. These comments reflect his broader vision of expanding U.S. influence and control over strategic territories. Bloomberg Forbes Axios New York Post 

Assad’s fall is bad news for Venezuela’s Maduro.  Venezuela is dependent on Russia for military equipment, financial support and political backing. Russia has supplied Venezuela with more than $10 billion in military hardware, including jet fighters and missile systems, and Russian oil giant Rosneft has invested billions in Venezuela’s oil industry.  With Russia now embroiled in Ukraine, the government of Nicolás Maduro’s government in Venezuela faces an erosion of external support.   A weakened Russia threatens Maduro’s grip on power. Assad’s fall showed that neither Russia nor Iran could prop him up. A collapse in Venezuela would further demonstrate Russia’s weakness and isolate its remaining allies.     The Hill 

EUROPE

Trump wants 5% NATO defense spending target, Europe told. Donald Trump’s foreign policy team has conveyed to European officials that the president-elect plans to demand NATO allies increase their defense spending target to 5% of GDP while continuing U.S. military aid to Ukraine. Although Trump had previously vowed to cut aid and force immediate peace talks, his latest stance links higher defense spending with enhanced U.S. trade benefits. Some officials believe Trump might settle for 3.5%, aligning with NATO discussions for a 3% target at its June summit. Trump also opposes Ukraine's NATO membership but supports post-ceasefire arms supplies to achieve "peace through strength." Key European nations, including France, Germany, and the UK, met with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week to discuss adapting policies ahead of Trump’s return to office. Zelensky emphasized that U.S. involvement remains essential, stating that European commitments alone are insufficient to sustain Ukraine’s defense. Trump’s evolving strategy underscores balancing fiscal demands with maintaining NATO unity and Ukraine’s security. Financial Times 

China promises cooperation in Baltic Sea cables probe. The Chinese foreign ministry on Monday asserted that it has provided information and documents to the joint investigation into the severing of two undersea Baltic Sea cables in November. It also said that it invited Germany, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark to participate in completing the inquiry. A ministry spokesperson made these statements in response to an article by the Financial Times, which reported that Sweden had chided Beijing for not allowing full access despite an open investigation, and for refusing to let its public prosecutor board the Chinese bulk carrier Yi Peng 3. The ship fell under severe scrutiny following the breach of two fiber-optic cables linking Finland to Germany and Sweden to Lithuania, and sabotage was suspected. China said it allowed representatives from the four countries to board the ship for the investigation. The vessel, which had been stationary in Danish waters for over a month to cooperate with the inquiry, has now resumed its voyage after consultations and a health assessment of the crew. China stressed its willingness to maintain communication and cooperation with all parties involved. Reuters France 24 Financial Times  

ANALYSIS–Putin’s Point of No Return. Russia’s war in Ukraine has solidified Vladimir Putin’s resolve to reshape the global order, positioning Russia as a militarized, rogue state committed to challenging Western dominance. The war has transformed Russia’s economy, foreign policy, and society, aligning it closer with China, Iran, and North Korea in a strategic axis against the West. With defense spending surging and partnerships deepening, Moscow is preparing for sustained confrontation. Despite setbacks, Russia is rebuilding its military and refining its tactics, posing an enduring threat to European security. Western sanctions have strained but not crippled Russia’s capacity, as it exploits alliances to counterbalance NATO. Europe remains underprepared to deter Russian aggression, relying heavily on U.S. support. The West faces a critical choice: invest in countering Russia now or face greater risks and costs later. Supporting Ukraine’s defense, fortifying NATO, and ensuring European self-reliance are essential to containing Russia’s ambitions and preventing future destabilization. Foreign Affairs

Italy’s Meloni warns Russian security threat ‘much wider than we imagine.’   Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said Sunday at a meeting in Finland that Moscow might use illegal immigration and other issues to undermine the European Union.  "We have to understand the threat is much wider than we imagine," Meloni, who leads a conservative government, told a press conference.  The danger to EU security from Russia or from elsewhere would not stop once the Ukraine conflict ended and the EU must be prepared for that, she said. "It's about our democracy, it's about influencing our public opinion, it's about what happens in Africa, it's about raw materials, it's about the instrumentalization of migration. We need to know it's a very wide idea of security," Meloni said.  She said the EU must protect its borders and not let Russia or any "criminal organization" steer the flows of illegal migrants.   Reuters Telegraph RBC-Ukraine

Slovakia’s Fico visits Putin in Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday hosted Slovakia’s prime minister, Robert Fico, in a rare visit to the Kremlin by an EU leader since Moscow’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.  Fico arrived in Russia on a “working visit” and met with Putin one-on-one on Sunday evening, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russia’s RIA news agency. According to Peskov, the talks were expected to focus on “the international situation” and Russian natural gas deliveries. Russian natural gas still flows to some European countries, including Slovakia, through Ukraine under a five-year agreement signed before the war that is due to expire at the end of this year. At a summit in Brussels on Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told EU leaders that Kyiv has no intention of renewing the deal, something Fico insisted will harm his country’s interests. Fico said on Facebook after meeting with Putin that he informed European Union leaders about his trip on Friday.  He said the talks in Moscow were a reaction to what Zelenskyy told him on Thursday in Brussels, that he is against any gas transit to Slovakia through Ukraine. Fico also said that Zelenskyy is in favor of sanctions against Russia’s nuclear program, which he said was unacceptable and against the interest of his country that relies on nuclear energy.   Associated Press Politico 

Suspect in German Christmas market attack profiled. The man in custody suspected of killing five people by driving an S.U.V. into a crowd at a Christmas market is a 50-year-old Saudi doctor who had been living in Germany for nearly two decades. They say they are still trying to determine his motives. The Salus Clinic in Bernburg, a town about a half-hour drive from Magdeburg, said that the man worked as a psychiatrist in a closed ward, treating offenders who suffer from drug addiction.  Reuters New York Times BBC The Guardian Al Jazeera Associated Press BBC  Financial Times  

Germany received repeated warnings about suspect in Christmas market attack. Saudi authorities say they are working to share extensive information with Germany regarding Taleb al-Abdulmohsen, a suspect in the Magdeburg market incident that left five people dead. The Saudis claim they had repeatedly warned Germany about al-Abdulmohsen's extremist views through official communications but allegedly received no response. German authorities are now being criticized for failing to act on these alerts or secure the Magdeburg market access route used in the attack, and critics have pointed out that Berlin’s failure to address the warnings about al-Abdulmohsen reflects a broader lapse in handling potential threats. Officials have revealed a history of warnings about the suspect, including tip-offs from Germany's migration office, as well as past convictions for threats and disputes with medical authorities. Despite these red flags, officials claim the warnings were vague, and no prior acts of violence had been recorded. Al-Abdulmohsen, who was granted asylum in Germany in 2016, had previously renounced Islam, making him a controversial figure in Riyadh; German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser described him as “ideologically an Islamophobe.” He is accused by Saudi officials of being a human trafficker, with a history of activism, including founding a website to help Saudi women flee to Europe. Born in Hofuf in 1974, little is known about his early life before he moved to Europe at age 32. Active on social media, he identified as a psychiatrist and founder of a Saudi rights movement. Associated Press BBC Financial Times

Tens of thousands mass in Belgrade to protest government corruption. Tens of thousands of individuals gathered in Belgrade, Serbia, on Sunday to protest against President Aleksandar Vucic and his ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), blaming them for a roof collapse at Novi Sad railway station in November that killed 15 people. The collapse, attributed to alleged shoddy construction linked to government corruption and nepotism, has sparked widespread outrage. Protesters commemorated the victims with 15 minutes of silence and demanded accountability, carrying banners accusing Vucic of negligence. Students from various universities have been staging daily protests, calling for transparency in the renovation's documentation and prosecution of those responsible. The government denies the allegations, and Vucic has pledged accountability for the tragedy. Reuters Associated Press 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Two U.S. Navy F/A 18 pilots safe after being shot down in Red Sea in friendly fire incident. Two U.S. Navy pilots were shot down over the Red Sea on Sunday in a “friendly fire” incident involving a guided-missile cruiser from their own battle group, marking a serious escalation in danger amid ongoing conflict with Yemen's Houthi rebels. Though both pilots survived after ejecting from the F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet, the incident highlights growing risks in the region, where American and European forces are combating Houthi missile and drone attacks on shipping and military targets. The shootdown occurred at the same time as the U.S. stepped up airstrikes targeting Houthi facilities in Yemen, including missile storage and command centers, while Houthis in turn launched missiles and drones. The U.S. military’s Central Command said that the two-seat aircraft had just flown off the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier when it was mistakenly fired on by the guided-missile cruiser USS Gettysburg; in the past, sailors have had only seconds to react to enemy fire, and this could have contributed to the incident. The Houthis, who claim to target ships linked to Israel, the U.S., or the U.K., have attacked numerous vessels and intensified assaults on Israel itself. Meanwhile, Israel vowed forceful retaliation against the Houthis alongside its allies. Associated Press The Guardian CBS Bloomberg Al Jazeera   

Assad’s collapse presents massive challenge to Putin’s Middle East ambitions. Russia's stubborn campaign of influence in the Middle East is eroding following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria. Despite President Vladimir Putin’s claims of success in Syria, where Russia provided critical military support in exchange for key military bases, Moscow is now facing challenges to maintain its presence and influence in the region. Rebel factions could expel Russian forces, jeopardizing the Kremlin’s strategic goals, including its logistics hub, diplomatic leverage, and demonstration of military strength to authoritarian allies. Russia’s two Syrian bases, Hmeimim airbase and the naval station at Tartus, played vital roles in projecting power and supporting operations in Africa and the Middle East. However, the Kremlin’s pivot to engaging Syria’s new rulers, including dropping its “terrorist” designation for the rebel faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, signals a desperate effort to retain some influence. While Russia could offer incentives such as financial aid, military equipment, or recognition of the new government, its resources are strained by the ongoing war in Ukraine. The collapse of Assad’s regime has also damaged its credibility as a reliable protector of authoritarian allies, and rivals like Turkey and Israel have taken advantage of Moscow’s diminished position, with Ankara seeking greater influence in Damascus and Israel intensifying military operations in Syria. Efforts to expand influence in alternative locations, such as Libya or Sudan, face significant obstacles. The war with Kyiv has drained Russia’s military capacity and diverted attention away from its Middle Eastern ambitions, leaving its geopolitical goals in the region increasingly uncertain. New York Times

ANALYSIS–How Syria’s rebels overcame years of a bloody stalemate to topple Assad. The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on Dec. 7 revealed deep fractures within his power structure and a miscalculation of his allies’ loyalties. Assad’s forces, plagued by low morale and disillusionment, crumbled under a unified rebel offensive. Insiders describe Assad as overconfident, assuring family and staff that Damascus was secure even as key cities fell. His secretive flight left close aides and relatives stranded, leading to accusations of betrayal. Russia and Iran, once steadfast supporters, quietly withdrew their backing, prioritizing their interests. A Turkish green light for the offensive exploited this vacuum, with one analyst noting, “The ground was shifting, and Assad failed to see it.” Rebels leveraged drones and defections to accelerate their advance, capitalizing on Assad’s overreliance on external support and his government’s internal rot. As one family member admitted, “Everyone feels he betrayed them,” signaling the final unraveling of Syria’s decades-long authoritarian regime. Washington Post

ANALYSIS–Deception and Betrayal: Inside the Final Days of the Assad Regime. In Bashar al-Assad’s final days, betrayal and chaos defined his regime’s collapse. As rebels advanced on Damascus, Bashar al-Assad feigned calm, instructing staff to prepare a conciliatory speech. Instead, he fled secretly to Moscow on Dec. 7, leaving aides unaware until hours later. His brother Maher escaped separately. The regime’s collapse revealed systemic failures: demoralized soldiers, outdated equipment, and relentless rebel drone strikes. Iranian and Russian allies distanced themselves, with Tehran withdrawing support and Moscow ceasing communication. Assad’s flight left Syria in disarray, with his home looted and former loyalists accusing him of abandoning them. New York Times

Everyone wants to meet Syria’s new rulers. Ahmad al-Sharaa, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Syria’s interim government, hosted foreign delegations in Damascus, seeking to end Syria's isolation and lift sanctions. While Sharaa emphasized pragmatism, European powers demand proof of inclusivity and Russian withdrawal from military bases. Challenges loom as HTS, blacklisted as a terrorist group, navigates diplomacy and post-war reconstruction amid oil shortages and depleted reserves. Skepticism persists about Sharaa’s commitment to political dialogue, with fears HTS may monopolize power rather than form an inclusive government. Meanwhile, Syria’s geopolitical future hinges on aligning with international demands while securing essential resources and stability. The Economist

Sectarian violence in Syria has been less intense than feared since Assad’s ouster. Since Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, sectarian violence in Syria has been less intense than feared, with 72 deaths reported, mostly Alawites targeted in retaliation for the Assad regime’s repression. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), leading the interim government, has worked to reduce tensions, hosting reconciliation meetings and promising justice without widespread retaliation. HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa vowed to unite Syria and protect minority rights, though skepticism remains about long-term intentions. The U.S. remains cautious, maintaining HTS’s terrorist designation while encouraging peaceful reforms. Despite isolated violence, the relative calm underscores Assad’s army’s disintegration rather than a fierce defense of his regime. Associated Press 

Cyprus can help rid Syria of chemical weapons and search for its missing. Cypriot Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos offered Cyprus’ assistance in eliminating Syria’s chemical weapons and addressing war-era disappearances, citing its past role in a 2013 disarmament mission. He highlighted concerns over extremist resurgence, narcotics proliferation, and threats to minorities. Kombos emphasized Kurdish rights within a unified Syria, warning against Turkish influence and urging international action to prevent further destabilization. Kurdish leader Saleh Muslim called for democratic equality and autonomy. Associated Press 

What now for Syria’s £4.5 billion illegal drug empire. Syria’s Captagon industry, a £4.5 billion illegal drug empire, thrived under Bashar al-Assad’s regime, implicating his family and military in its trade. Following Assad's ouster, rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa vowed to end production. While exports have already dropped as major players fled, concerns remain over rising crystal meth use and financial reliance on the drug trade. Experts highlight the need for rehabilitation programs, economic alternatives, and international aid to dismantle the entrenched network and address lingering addiction and smuggling challenges. BBC 

Iran’s escalating energy crisis reaches ‘dire’ point as industries flop, population bristles. Iran is in the midst of a severe energy crisis, with widespread power outages and gas shortages shutting down schools, government offices, and industrial production. Despite its vast natural gas reserves, decades of sanctions, mismanagement, aging infrastructure, and wasteful consumption, compounded by recent Israeli attacks on gas pipelines, have left the country unable to meet energy demand. The government has prioritized maintaining gas supplies to residential homes, resulting in power cuts at industrial plants and widespread disruptions. Businesses are reporting significant losses, with manufacturing reduced by up to 50%, and workers fear layoffs as uncertainty spreads. Scheduled power outages have given way to random, prolonged blackouts, affecting daily life, education, and work. President Masoud Pezeshkian has acknowledged the crisis and attributed it to depleted energy reserves inherited by his administration. He has also urged citizens to conserve energy by reducing the temperature of their homes. However, many Iranians are frustrated, facing unreliable power, water shortages, and escalating production costs. Analysts blame systemic corruption, inadequate infrastructure, and lack of foreign investment due to sanctions. The crisis sheds light on the government’s struggle to manage mounting economic and geopolitical challenges. New York Times

ASIA & OCEANIA

Officials detained seven Chinese nationals who attempted to illegally enter Guam amid U.S. missile test. Seven Chinese nationals were detained in Guam on Dec. 10-11 for allegedly entering the island illegally, with some found near a military installation, according to Guam’s Customs and Quarantine Agency. Their arrests coincided with a U.S. Missile Defense Agency test of a new missile interception radar at Andersen Air Force Base. Authorities suspect potential espionage, as such activities could provide China with intelligence on American missile defense capabilities. The individuals all arrived on the same boat from Saipan, and the investigation is ongoing. The U.S. intends to establish a $10 billion air and missile defense network on Guam over the next decade, integrating advanced systems to deter missile attacks. The Dec. 10 test was successful, and up to two interception tests are planned annually. China's Foreign Ministry has not commented on the incident. Reuters The Independent Institute for the Study of War 

China reiterates Taiwan as a 'red line' issue and denounces new US military aid to Taipei. China on Sunday condemned the U.S. for its decision to provide Taiwan with a $571 million package of military aid, arguing that the support violates the "one China principle" and joint agreements between the two powers. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson warned that Taiwan is a "red line" in Beijing-Washington relations and pledged to take "all necessary measures" to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity. On Saturday, President Joe Biden authorized $571 million in military assistance, including material, services, and training, following a $567 million package in September. Additionally, the U.S. has approved $295 million in arms sales, including tactical radios and gun mounts. The aid aims to bolster the island’s self-defense and deter potential Chinese aggression. Reuters Associated Press Newsweek Reuters

No sign of thawing in Sino-Canadian relations as China targets Canadian institutions in tit for tat move. China has imposed sanctions on two Canadian organizations, the Uygur Rights Advocacy Project and the Canada Tibet Committee, along with 20 individuals, in response to Ottawa’s recent imposition of sanctions on Chinese officials over alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Tibet. The sanctions freeze their assets in China, ban transactions and cooperation, and prohibit entry into China, including Hong Kong and Macau. This escalation follows Canada's December sanctions, which target eight Chinese officials, including former party chiefs of Xinjiang and Tibet, over alleged abuses. Beijing has repeatedly denied these accusations, claiming that its policies in Xinjiang and Tibet aim to maintain stability and economic growth, while accusing the West of interfering in its internal affairs. Relations between the two powers have been tense since 2018, after Ottawa detained Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou and China subsequently arrested two Canadians on spying charges. Recent friction includes accusations of Chinese interference in Canadian elections, trade disputes, and strained diplomatic relations. South China Morning Post Reuters The Straits Times 

Myanmar rebel army claims to have seized junta's western regional command. Myanmar's rebel Arakan Army (AA) announced the capture of a major military headquarters in Rakhine state last week, marking the junta's second regional command to fall amid growing setbacks against a nationwide armed resistance. The capture followed two weeks of intense fighting. The AA, which is part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, launched an offensive in October 2023, and has achieved significant victories, including the earlier capture of Lashio in the northeast. Rakhine, an impoverished coastal province bordering Bangladesh, has seen renewed conflict since a ceasefire between the AA and the junta collapsed. The region, despite its natural gas reserves and economic potential, remains one of Myanmar's poorest. The fighting has displaced tens of thousands, including members of the Rohingya community, with activists accusing the AA of targeting them—claims the group denies. Myanmar has been in turmoil since the military ousted a civilian government in 2021 and sparked widespread protests that evolved into an armed rebellion. Reuters The Guardian Associated Press 

"Devoid of rationality:" Pakistan rejects U.S. official's warning about missile program. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry has rejected claims that its missile program poses a threat to the United States, calling recent assertions by Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer "unfounded" and "devoid of rationality." Finer had labeled Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile development an "emerging threat," and his comments coincided with new U.S. sanctions on Pakistan's missile program. Pakistan on Thursday condemned the sanctions as “discriminatory” and cautioned that they “have dangerous implications for strategic stability of our region and beyond.” Islamabad also stressed that its strategic capabilities are defensive and aimed at regional stability, not targeting any country. The ministry highlighted its history of U.S.-Pakistan cooperation, particularly in counterterrorism, and reiterated its commitment to constructive dialogue on regional security. Relations between the two nations have fluctuated over the years, with Pakistan collaborating with the U.S. during the Cold War and post-9/11 counter-terrorism efforts. Ties became strained later, however, due to Islamabad’s military coups, nuclear program, and its past support for Taliban rule in Afghanistan. Reuters Deutsche Welle The Economic Times CNN

16 security personnel killed by Islamist militants in Pakistan’s northwest. Local police say that sixteen security personnel were killed and eight injured in a militant attack on a security post in northwest Pakistan's South Waziristan region early on Saturday. The attackers, who used both light and heavy weapons, were most likely members of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistan Taliban. A search operation in the area is ongoing. The TTP took responsibility for the assault, claiming a higher casualty count of 35 killed and 15 injured. The group also said that it seized equipment, such as weapons and a night vision device. The TTP, an umbrella group of Sunni Islamist militants, has intensified attacks in recent months, and primarily targets security forces. The group seeks to overthrow Pakistan's government and establish a strict Islamic governance system. The TTP pledges allegiance to the Afghan Taliban, which took control of Afghanistan after the U.S. withdrew in 2021. Reuters  Associated Press 

AFRICA

Sudan's RSF claims to have taken back critical Darfur base from army allies. Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed to have regained control of the al-Zurug base in North Darfur on Sunday, a day after it was seized by the army and allied Joint Forces. This logistical base is strategically important for RSF supply routes from Chad and Libya. The ongoing civil war has seen some of its fiercest fighting in North Darfur, with the army struggling to maintain its hold on the region. In a statement, the RSF accused Joint Forces of ethnic cleansing during the raid, claiming that civilians, including women and children, were killed, and homes, wells, markets, and public amenities destroyed. The Joint Forces alleged the base was used by the RSF to launch attacks on civilians in areas like al-Fashir, a key frontline in the conflict. On Sunday, activists reported over 30 missiles targeting parts of al-Fashir. Analysts warn that the RSF's control of the area could strengthen its efforts to establish a parallel government in Sudan, further deepening the conflict. Ethnic tensions, particularly between Arab tribes supporting the RSF and the Zaghawa-dominated Joint Forces, risk further escalation. Reuters

Siege of Sudan's al-Fashir has left over 700 dead since May, reports U.N. rights chief. U.N. human rights head Volker Türk revealed last week that since May, over 700 people have been killed in North Darfur’s al-Fashir due to intense fighting between Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese army. The RSF’s siege of al-Fashir, which has been marked by repeated shelling of residential areas and airstrikes by the army, has caused at least 782 civilian deaths and over 1,143 injuries. These unremitting attacks on civilians, which may constitute war crimes, have worsened the humanitarian crisis in Sudan, where over 12 million people have been displaced. The RSF’s recent attack on al-Fashir’s main hospital killed nine people, and artillery fire on the nearby Zamzam camp, home to over half a million people facing famine, has forced thousands to flee. The conflict has devastated lives and raised fears about ethnic violence in Darfur if the RSF gains control of the region. Both sides deny targeting civilians and accuse each other of atrocities. The U.N. has called for an end to the siege and increased relief efforts in the area. Reuters Al Jazeera France 24

U.N. votes to extend peacekeeping mission in Congo amid controversy. The United Nations Security Council on Friday voted to prolong the mandate of its peacekeeping mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUSCO) for another year, delaying its withdrawal from the conflict-ridden eastern provinces until at least December 2025. Despite previously advocating for MONUSCO's departure, the Congolese government supported the renewal, citing the need for continued peacekeeping in volatile areas. The mission's 11,000 peacekeepers will remain active in Congo, particularly in the east, where there are ongoing conflicts involving rebel groups vying for resources and territory. The planned withdrawal from North Kivu and Ituri provinces was paused in July due to security concerns, including allegations of Rwandan support for the M23 rebel insurgency, which Rwanda denies. The U.N. resolution condemned external support for armed groups like M23 and demanded foreign military forces leave Congo. However, some Security Council members, including the U.S., criticized the lack of direct condemnation of Rwanda. MONUSCO has faced criticism, including accusations of failing to protect civilians and deadly protests against its presence. The Congolese government has called for an orderly, phased withdrawal that focuses the mission's efforts on the most volatile regions. Reuters

17 Chinese nationals arrested in Congo for allegedly operating illegal gold mine. Authorities in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have announced the arrest of seventeen Chinese men accused of operating an illegal gold mine in South Kivu province. The arrests followed an unannounced visit by government officials last week to a mine site in Karhembo village, where authorities found no valid documentation for the operation. Approximately 60 Chinese nationals were at the site, but only 17, believed to be in charge, were detained, along with some Congolese and Burundian individuals. This crackdown is part of the DRC government's efforts to combat unlicensed mineral extraction, which has fueled regional conflicts. The Chinese and Burundian embassies have yet to comment. Earlier in July, the province suspended mining operations to restore order, though activities later resumed under continued scrutiny. The region, rich in minerals like gold and cobalt, faces persistent challenges from unlicensed operators and armed groups. Reuters  

Attacks across several Mali villages leave over 20 civilians dead. At least 20 people were killed on Friday in brutal attacks by jihadist groups on villages in central Mali's Bandiagara region. Local officials reported that six villages were targeted and ransacked by unidentified assailants on motorcycles, with grain silos burned and residents fleeing the violence. Conflicting reports put the death toll at 20 to 22, with many victims injured and villages destroyed. Mali has faced ongoing violence from jihadist groups linked to Al-Qaeda and ISIS, separatist movements, and criminal gangs since 2012. Recent attacks include assaults on a police academy and military airport in Bamako in September. The ruling military junta, which seized power in coups in 2020 and 2021, has ended Mali's alliance with France and aligned with Russia, expelling a UN stabilization force. Despite increased military efforts, these attacks challenge the junta's claims of progress against jihadists, with reports of abuses against civilians by both the army and its Russian allies. France 24 Reuters     

How hunger, and an economic crisis, led to the deaths of 67 Nigerians in charity stampedes. Nigerians are struggling in the aftermath of several disastrous stampedes during Christmas charity events across the nation, which have left at least 67 people dead, including 35 children. The tragic incidents occurred in Oyo, Anambra, and Abuja, where thousands gathered in desperation for food and clothing donations. The country is facing its worst cost-of-living crisis in decades, stemming from a weak currency, soaring inflation, now at a 28-year high of 34.6%, and widespread poverty, with 63% of Nigeria's 210 million population living below the poverty line. Many Nigerians spend the majority of their income on food, which has become increasingly unaffordable. Stampedes are fueled by desperation, poor crowd management, and inadequate safety measures. Events often lack security planning, and crowds rush to secure prime positions even before distributions begin. The growing demand for food has led to more such events, but organizers often fail to prioritize safety. In response, President Bola Tinubu has urged stricter regulations for charity events, including mandatory permissions. Experts highlight the need for better planning, professional advice, and increased security to prevent future tragedies. Associated Press Al Jazeera BBC 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

It could be worth keeping TikTok around for a little while, says Trump. President-elect Donald Trump on Sunday suggested that he might support TikTok’s continued operations in the U.S., citing the app's significant impact on his presidential campaign, where he received billions of views. Speaking at a conservative event in Phoenix, Trump expressed admiration for TikTok's influence, calling it a "record-breaking" platform. The U.S. Senate recently passed a law requiring the app’s parent company, ByteDance, to divest the platform due to national security concerns. If the Supreme Court does not rule in ByteDance's favor, TikTok could face a U.S. ban on January 19, a day before Trump takes office. Despite the Justice Department's claims that TikTok's ties to China pose a security threat, Trump hinted at reconsidering the divestiture order. TikTok has argued that its operations and user data are securely managed in the U.S. through Oracle servers, with content moderation decisions made domestically. It remains unclear how Trump might address the divestiture requirement if it proceeds. Reuters Axios TechCrunch South China Morning Post  

Albania imposes one year ban on TikTok after killing of teenager, alleged promotion of violence. Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama has announced a one-year ban on TikTok starting in January, following last month’s killing of a 14-year-old boy linked to a social media confrontation. Rama criticized the immensely popular platform for its harmful influence on children, calling it "scum and mud," and stressing the need for educational programs to guide students and parents. TikTok denied any connection to the incident, stating neither the victim nor the suspect had accounts on the platform. The proposed ban has sparked a debate in Albania about social media's impact on youth. Globally, TikTok is facing scrutiny over its content and alleged ties to the Chinese state, leading to bans in countries like India, Iran, and Afghanistan. In the U.S., the Chinese-owned app is contesting a potential ban or forced sale, with a Supreme Court hearing scheduled in January. Some European countries and Australia have also implemented or proposed strict measures to limit social media use among children. BBC Politico Reuters Associated Press

Biden administration to investigate Chinese chips, setting stage for Trump to decide on tariffs. The Biden administration on Monday initiated an investigation into Chinese-made legacy semiconductor chips, which are critical for various industries like automotive, aviation, and telecommunications. The inquiry, launched under Section 301 trade law, aims to determine whether China’s practices in this sector are "unreasonable" or "discriminatory" and pose a national security risk by concentrating chip production under Chinese control. If violations are found, the incoming Trump administration will decide on potential actions, including tariffs or import restrictions. The move reflects Washington’s much debated concerns about China's subsidies and dominance in the global chip market. On Sunday, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo underscored the need for resilient supply chains, citing disruptions during COVID-19 that highlighted reliance on overseas chip suppliers. The investigation also aligns with Biden's broader push to strengthen the U.S. semiconductor industry, including limiting exports of advanced technology to China and passing bipartisan subsidy measures. The probe sets the stage for the Trump administration, which previously imposed wide-ranging tariffs on Chinese goods, to potentially increase existing tariffs on legacy semiconductors from 25% to 50% by 2025. Trump has announced plans to nominate Jamieson Greer as the new U.S. trade representative to lead these efforts. Bloomberg Axios New York Times Reuters  

In unprecedented ruling, judge says Israeli NSO Group liable for spyware hacking on WhatsApp user devices.  A U.S. federal judge ruled on Friday that NSO Group, the developer of the controversial Pegasus spyware, is liable for its role in the hacking of 1,400 WhatsApp users' devices, marking a significant legal precedent against the Israeli spyware maker. The court found NSO violated the federal Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (CFAA), California’s Comprehensive Computer Data Access and Fraud Act (CDAFA), and WhatsApp's terms of service. This is the first time NSO has been held accountable in court for its spyware’s abuse, which has been used by anonymous government clients worldwide to target journalists, human rights activists, political dissidents, and diplomats. The lawsuit, filed by Meta-owned WhatsApp in 2019, alleged that NSO exploited a vulnerability in WhatsApp's systems to install Pegasus spyware on users’ devices, bypassing the platform’s defenses over two years. NSO repeatedly developed new malware after WhatsApp’s security team blocked its initial intrusions, and executives confirmed that the company retained full control over the spyware’s deployment and data extraction, despite its claims that the responsibility lay solely with its clients. Judge Phyllis Hamilton sanctioned NSO for failing to provide complete Pegasus source code as required by court order, and criticized the company for submitting incomplete code that could only be accessed by Israeli citizens within Israel. The court also unsealed depositions and filings showing NSO’s central role in managing spyware operations, undermining its defense of limited involvement. The ruling has been hailed as a victory for spyware victims and a warning to other companies engaged in similar activities. The decision opens the door to potentially significant damages against NSO Group, with arguments on this matter scheduled for March. This case reveals NSO’s direct role in creating and deploying tools that have been widely abused, despite its claims of operating solely for national security and law enforcement purposes. The Record CNN The Guardian Financial Times Reuters

An overview of global markets in 2024. Global markets defied expectations in 2024, driven by strong U.S. economic performance, Wall Street's rally, and widespread enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. Despite geopolitical conflicts and economic struggles in other regions, the S&P 500 gained 24%, its strongest two-year streak since 1998, led by tech giants like Nvidia and Tesla. U.S. assets attracted significant global capital, bolstered by optimism surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-business policies, which also strengthened the dollar by 7%. Bitcoin soared 128% as investor confidence surged. Europe, in contrast, struggled economically, with the euro dropping 5.5% against the dollar and European markets underperforming U.S. stocks more significantly than in 25 years. Economic contraction, French budget instability, and slow recovery from rate cuts hindered growth, although a rebound is anticipated in 2025. Emerging markets faced challenges as well, with currencies in countries like Egypt, Nigeria, and Brazil suffering major devaluations, exacerbated by the anticipation of Trump’s trade policies. China’s markets experienced volatility, with stocks gaining 14.5% annually but enduring sharp fluctuations due to inconsistent government stimulus. This instability disrupted neighboring markets in Europe and Asia, with many investors wary of Beijing’s short-term policy cycles. Gold emerged as a safe haven with a 27% increase, while bond markets struggled. Sticky inflation and fewer-than-expected rate cuts led to losses for bond investors, with yields rising across major economies, including Japan, which saw its largest yield increase since 2003. Amid this turbulence, some unexpected winners emerged. Lebanon’s defaulted bonds and Argentina’s dollar bonds delivered 100% returns, driven by reform optimism and geopolitical factors, while Ukrainian bonds returned over 60% amid hopes that Trump’s presidency might resolve the conflict. As markets enter 2025, they remain heavily tied to U.S. trends, with investors bracing for potential volatility linked to Trump’s economic policies and Federal Reserve decisions. Global uncertainty continues to loom, making the outlook increasingly complex. Reuters 

SpaceX conducts 129th Falcon 9 mission of 2024. SpaceX successfully launched 21 Starlink internet satellites early Monday morning from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The Falcon 9 rocket, carrying satellites including 13 capable of providing direct service to cellphones, lifted off at 12:35 a.m. EDT. The rocket's first stage returned to Earth as planned, landing on the droneship "Just Read the Instructions" in the Atlantic Ocean, marking its 15th reuse. The upper stage continued to deploy the satellites into low Earth orbit about 65 minutes after liftoff. This launch marked SpaceX's 129th Falcon 9 mission of 2024, with two-thirds of these flights focused on expanding the Starlink broadband constellation, which now consists of over 6,800 active satellites. Space.com Spaceflight Now 

Under Pressure, Telegram Pulls Off an Elusive Milestone: A Profit. Telegram is set to achieve profitability for the first time, with revenue projected to surpass $1 billion in 2024, driven by advertising, subscriptions, and cryptocurrency sales, despite legal challenges and $2 billion in debt. Founder Pavel Durov remains Telegram’s sole owner and has expanded content moderation, saying, “Telegram needs a sustainable business model.” While attracting brands like Samsung, Telegram faces scrutiny for hosting illicit content. Its user base is nearly 1 billion, with 12 million paying subscribers, and it plans to have an IPO by 2026. However, Durov’s legal troubles and reliance on cryptocurrency remain challenges. New York Times

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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