Report for Monday, August 12, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Friday-Monday, August 9-12, 2024

Israeli defense minister Gallant tells U.S. SecDef Austin that Iran is primed to attack

Russia Pushes Back at Ukraine’s Cross-Border Assault, but Kyiv Presses On

In Secret Talks, U.S. Offers Amnesty to Venezuela’s Maduro for Ceding Power

Intel officials claim Iran is set to send ballistic missiles to Russia soon

Philippines says Chinese Air Force’s actions are 'illegal', 'reckless’ following incident

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Spoilers that could Ignite ‘Tinder Box’ in the Middle East  The Cipher Brief 

U.S. Moving Big Guns to the Middle East to Deter, Protect and DefendThe Cipher Brief 

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Hezbollah fires rocket barrage at northern Israel Sunday night.   Hezbollah fired a barrage of about 30 rockets toward northern Israel Sunday night, as Israeli forces braced for strikes from Iran, Hezbollah, and other proxies retaliating for the deaths of top Hamas and Hezbollah leaders last month.  Northern Israel has endured almost daily rocket fire since Hamas attacked Israel last October 7.  Hezbollah said in a statement that Sunday’s barrage was fired in support of the Palestinian people in Gaza and in retaliation for recent Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the rockets fell into open areas and no injuries were reported.  CNN 

Israeli defense minister Gallant tells U.S. SecDef Austin that Iran is primed to attack.  In a phone call Sunday, Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant told U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin that Israeli intelligence assessed that based on Iranian military preparations, Iran is poised to launch a large-scale attack within the next two days, Axios reported Sunday. If that happens, it could disrupt the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal talks scheduled for Thursday. Axios said the timing is "still fluid." Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, said in a statement that Austin reiterated America’s commitment “to take every possible step to defend Israel.”  A DOD readout said Austin ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, equipped with F-35C fighters, to accelerate its transit to the Central Command area of responsibility in the Middle East, reinforcing the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group. Austin also ordered the USS Georgia (SSGN 729) guided missile submarine to the Central Command region.  It wasn’t clear how much faster the strike group and submarine will get to the region.  Axios  Associated Press  Reuters  Defense Department

Iran's Revolutionary Guards drill in western Iran.   On Friday, Iran's Revolutionary Guards launched military drills in the western province of Kermanshah close to the border with Iraq to "enhance combat readiness and vigilance," Iran's official news agency IRNA announced Sunday. An Iranian Revolutionary Guards deputy commander was quoted as saying that Iran is set to carry out an order by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to "harshly punish" Israel.  Reuters  Reuters 

Palestinian officials claim Israel strike on Gaza school shelter killed around 100;  Israel denies high toll, says 19 terrorists killed.  An Israeli airstrike on a Gaza City school compound where displaced families were sheltering killed around 100 people, the Gaza Civil Emergency Service said Saturday.  Israel said the death toll was inflated but did not offer an alternate count.  It said it had killed 19 militants.  Arab states, Turkey, France, Britain and the European Union condemned the strike. The U.S. expressed deep concern.  Asked for her reaction to the Gaza City strike, Vice President Kamala Harris said, "Yet again far too many civilians have been killed.” The Israeli military said the strike was carried out with “three precise munitions, which cannot cause the amount of damage that is being reported. The compound and mosque within it served as an active Hamas and Islamic Jihad military facility," Israeli Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani said on X.  Reuters  Reuters

Israel orders people out of Khan Younis neighborhood. The Israeli military on Sunday ordered civilians to evacuate the neighborhood of al-Jalaa in Khan Younis because Hamas had “embedded terrorist infrastructure” there. Israel’s military said it was redrawing the border of the Khan Younis humanitarian zone and urging civilians to move to what it said were safe zones. It said it was sending phone messages, dropping fliers and broadcasting these instructions. Philippe Lazzarini, head of the U.N. agency that aids Palestinians, said residents had “nowhere to go,” and more than 75,000 people had been displaced in the southwestern part of the enclave in recent days.  NY Times 

US releases $3.5 billion to Israel to buy US weapons, military gear.  The State Department notified lawmakers on Thursday night that the Biden administration will release $3.5 billion the billions of dollars’ worth of foreign military financing to Israel.  The money is part of the  $14.1 billion supplemental funding bill for Israel passed by Congress in April.  Israel won’t receive $3.5 billion worth of US-made weapons right away.  It’s for systems now being built, to be delivered in several years. The supplemental funding also allocated billions of dollars’ worth of equipment that the Pentagon can draw from its own stockpiles and send to Israel on a faster timeline.  CNN

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russia evacuates another border region amid growing threat from Ukrainian units. Russia on Monday evacuated civilians from parts of a second region next to Ukraine after Kyiv increased military activity near the border just days after its biggest incursion into sovereign Russian territory since the start of the 2022 war. In the neighboring Belgorod region to the south, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said evacuations had begun from the Krasnaya Yaruga District due to "enemy activity on the border." Russia by Sunday had stabilized the front in the Kursk region, though Ukraine had carved out a sliver of Russian territory where battles were continuing on Monday, according to Russian war bloggers. Russia has imposed tight security in the Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod regions since Ukrainian forces crossed the border on Tuesday.   Reuters Associated Press RFE/RL

Kursk attack will pressure Russia and 'restore justice,' Zelensky says. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region to "restore justice" and pressure Moscow. The offensive, in its sixth day on Sunday, marks Ukraine's largest push into Russian territory since the war began, prompting intense battles and swift Russian reinforcements. Russia responded by evacuating residents and imposing security measures in three border regions, while Belarus bolstered its border defenses. Despite Russian claims of halting the attack, Ukrainian forces remain in the area. Zelensky called on Western allies to supply more advanced weapons and lift restrictions on Kyiv’s ability to strike deep inside Russia. Casualties and evacuations continue on both sides. Ukraine has at most occupied several tens of square kilometers of Russian territory without laying claim to it, while Russia controls more than 100,000 square kilometers of Ukraine. Reuters  Associated Press RFE/RL 

Russia Pushes Back at Ukraine’s Cross-Border Assault, but Kyiv Presses On. Ukraine’s cross-border assault into Russia's Kursk region has led to intense battles, with both sides claiming success. Russia has responded with reinforcements and airstrikes, including thermobaric missiles, to stall Ukraine’s advance. “We’re now entering the phase where the easy gains have been made,” according to analyst Pasi Paroinen. Ukrainian forces hold ground in parts of Kursk and claim to have captured a small village in Belgorod. The offensive has exposed weaknesses in Russia’s defenses, triggering public backlash. Ukraine wants to pin down Russian forces, which control 18% of its territory, while showing the West that it can still muster major military operations that hurt Russia even if the Kursk front is unlikely to change the outcome of the war. Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former defense minister, said: “It’s not a question about staying there forever or for a long time, it’s an issue of trying to stretch out their forces. I doubt that Ukraine’s leadership has these plans to occupy Russian territory and to hold it indefinitely.” Meanwhile, Russia's attacks continue on the frontlines in Ukraine. New York Times Reuters  Washington Post New York Times Reuters Associated Press Associated Press  Bloomberg Kyiv Independent RFE/RL RFE/RL Wall Street Journal  Economist 

ANALYSIS–Ukraine’s Invasion of Russia Could Bring a Quicker End to the War. Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region marks the largest territorial gain since 2022, highlighting Ukraine's ability to exploit sudden breakthroughs. This offensive, the first invasion of Russia by foreign troops since WWII, aims to demonstrate Ukraine's power and challenge the belief in Russia's dominance. Kyiv might leverage this operation to strengthen its position in potential negotiations, signaling readiness for diplomacy. The move undermines the notion that Putin controls the terms of a ceasefire and may open the door for a "land for land" deal, potentially bringing a quicker end to the war. Foreign Policy 

Ukraine’s Russia Incursion Faces Dilemma After Quick Gains. Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk province has quickly gained territory and boosted morale but presents a dilemma: whether to risk more troops and equipment that are desperately needed on Ukraine's eastern front. Ukrainian forces have advanced 20 miles, disrupting Russian supply lines and showcasing their strategic capabilities. The current U.S. assessment is that one of Ukraine’s reasons for launching the incursion was to disrupt Russian supply lines to the northern front in Kharkiv, where Moscow’s troops launched an incursion of their own in May, a U.S. official said. Ukraine has taken dozens of prisoners, whom it can trade for its own detainees held in Russia. However, the operation demands significant resources as Russian forces continue to press forward in the east. The incursion highlights Ukraine's resilience but raises concerns about its long-term impact on the war. Wall Street Journal

Russia evacuates over 76,000 in Kursk region amid Ukraine incursion, TASS cites emergency ministry. More than 76,000 people were evacuated from Russia's Kursk region after Ukraine's incursion, with intense battles reported up to 20 kilometers inside Russian territory following Ukraine's largest attack on Russian soil since the war began in 2022. Reuters 

Zelensky says Russian forces started fire at Russian-controlled nuclear plant in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russian forces of setting a fire at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, showing video evidence of smoke. While radiation levels remain normal, Zelensky condemned Russia for using the plant to blackmail Ukraine and the world. Both sides blamed each other for the fire, with Russia claiming Ukraine targeted the plant with a drone. The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed explosions and smoke but reported no nuclear safety threat. Russia captured the plant from Ukraine shortly after launching its full-scale invasion in 2022. The plant's six nuclear reactors are in cold shutdown. CNN Reuters

Belarus boosts troops at border, summons diplomat after accusing Ukraine of airspace violation. Belarus reinforced its border with Ukraine after accusing Kyiv of violating its airspace with drones. President Alexander Lukashenko claimed air defense forces destroyed several Ukrainian drones. Belarus' Foreign Ministry summoned Ukraine’s diplomat, demanding measures to prevent future incidents. Belarus also deployed additional troops and missile systems in response. Reuters

Video on Ukrainian media shows soldiers in control of gas facility in Russia's Kursk region. A video posted by Ukrainian media on Friday shows Ukrainian soldiers claiming control of a key gas transit point supplying Europe and the town of Sudzha – about six miles from the Ukrainian border in Russia's Kursk region, where Russia has been battling a Ukrainian incursion that started a week ago. The soldiers stated that the town is calm and under Ukrainian control. Reuters Financial Times

IAEA chief calls for restraint as fighting remains ongoing 'in the vicinity' of Kursk Nuclear Power Plant. International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi urged Kyiv and Moscow to "exercise maximum restraint" to avoid a nuclear accident at the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP) amid ongoing fighting. Two reactors are operational, with two shut down and two under construction. Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast has led to battles near the plant, prompting Russia to fortify its defenses. A drone attack caused power outages in Kurchatov, where the KNPP is located. Kyiv Independent

PhDs, Fake Documents, Avoiding Public Transit: How Ukraine’s Draft Dodgers Stay Away from the Front. Ukraine is undergoing a massive mobilization effort to recruit hundreds of thousands of more troops, but many men are avoiding the draft due to fears of being sent to the front lines with minimal training. Draft officers are actively issuing summonses as men are increasingly going into hiding, quitting jobs, or seeking ways to evade conscription. Applications for postgraduate education programs, which until recently came with an exemption from the draft, reached record highs this year. Smugglers charge up to $15,000 to get men out of the country illegally. The shortage of willing recruits is reshaping life in Ukraine, with young men scarce in public spaces and businesses struggling to find workers. Despite the need for soldiers, fear of indefinite enlistment and the dangers of combat deter many men. Ukrainian soldiers, meanwhile, have grown resentful toward compatriots who are hiding or fleeing the country. Wall Street Journal

Vladimir Putin spends big—and sends Russia’s economy soaring. Despite global economic concerns and sanctions, Russia's economy is booming, driven by heavy government spending during wartime. Russian GDP is expected to grow over 3% this year, with unemployment at record lows and consumer confidence high. This economic surge is fueled by a shift from austerity to significant fiscal spending, particularly on military efforts and social welfare. The government has also implemented policies to cushion the impact of high inflation, such as loan holidays and subsidized mortgages. However, this economic boom may be short-lived, as rising inflation and budget deficits could pose future challenges. Putin’s spending spree, while boosting morale and economic activity, risks depleting Russia’s financial reserves within five years. For now, the economy is thriving, but the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain. Economist

Billions in dollar and euro notes reach Russia despite sanctions. Since March 2022, approximately $2.3 billion in dollar and euro banknotes have been shipped to Russia despite sanctions imposed by the U.S. and European Union. The cash, imported primarily from countries like the UAE and Turkey, is used for trade, travel, and small transactions, with banks and state arms companies being major recipients. The customs data reveals that Russia has circumvented sanctions through cash-for-gold transactions and other methods, highlighting ongoing challenges in enforcing international sanctions. Despite Russia's efforts to reduce reliance on hard currencies, dollars and euros remain essential for many Russians. Reuters

Zelensky suggests moves towards banning Orthodox church with Moscow ties. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hinted at moves towards banning the Orthodox Church in Ukraine with ties to Moscow, aiming to strengthen "Ukrainian spiritual independence." While the independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church has gained followers since Russia's 2022 invasion, the minority Moscow-linked branch still holds influence. Ukrainian leaders accuse it of abetting the invasion and trying to poison public opinion. "We must deprive Moscow of the last opportunities to restrict the freedom of Ukrainians,” Zelensky said. Parliament had initially approved a bill to ban such religious organizations, but final approval stalled. Concerns remain about potential opposition from conservative Republicans in the U.S. due to religious freedom issues. Reuters

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 8, injure 30 over past day. Russian attacks across 11 Ukrainian regions in the past day killed eight people and injured 30, Ukrainian authorities said on Sunday. In Kyiv Oblast, a 35-year-old man and his 4-year-old son were killed. In Kharkiv Oblast, an 87-year-old man was killed in Lisova Stinka. In Donetsk Oblast, three people were killed in attacks on Kramatorsk, Hrodivka, and Stinky. In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, A 68-year-old man was killed in the Polohy district. In Kherson Oblast, one person was killed. Kyiv Independents

UN says July was deadliest month for Ukraine's civilians since 2022. July was the deadliest month for Ukraine's civilians since October 2022, the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine said, as Russia stepped up bombardments. At least 219 civilians were killed and 1,018 injured in Ukraine. Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, the UN estimates that at least 11,520 civilians have been killed and at least 23,640 injured. The actual figure is likely much higher. Some of the places that saw the heaviest combat in early 2022 are still under Russian occupation. Reuters Kyiv Independent

Russian strike on supermarket in Ukraine's east kills 14 people. A Russian missile on Friday struck a supermarket in Kostiantynivka, a frontline town in Ukraine's Donetsk region, killing at least 14 people and injuring 43. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy condemned the attack, highlighting that civilians were targeted. Emergency services continued searching the rubble for survivors. The Donetsk region, near active combat lines, frequently faces Russian shelling. Ukrainian officials reported that a Kh-38 air-to-surface missile was used in the strike, damaging residential houses, shops, and vehicles. Reuters Kyiv Independent

Father, 4-year-old son killed in Russian air strike on Kyiv region. A Russian air strike Sunday near Kyiv killed a 4-year-old boy and his 35-year-old father, with three others injured. The attack, involving a North Korean-made missile, struck their home in the Brovary district. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the strike as a deliberate act of terrorism and called for stronger air defenses and permission to strike deep inside Russia. Russia launched 57 drones across Ukraine, 53 of which were intercepted by Ukrainian air defenses. Reuters

Russia's Lipetsk region hit by 'massive' drone attack, governor says. Russia's Lipetsk region faced a "massive" Ukrainian drone attack, causing explosions, disrupting power, and injuring nine people. Four villages near an air force base were evacuated, and a state of emergency was declared. A fire broke out at the air base, and all entertainment events were canceled. Russia's defense ministry reported destroying 75 Ukrainian drones, mostly over the Belgorod and Lipetsk regions. Reuters

Russia's Deripaska under fire for rare anti-war comments.  Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska faced backlash Friday after making rare anti-war comments, calling the Kremlin’s Ukraine invasion "mad" and urging an "immediate, unconditional ceasefire." Deripaska made the comment in an interview with Nikkei Asia in Japan this week on the sidelines of an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting. His remarks, made during an APEC meeting, mark the strongest criticism of the war by a prominent Russian businessman. Philosopher Alexander Dugin, a key war ideologist, accused Deripaska of betraying Russian forces. Deripaska is under United States, European Union, and UK sanctions. Reuters 

US to send Stinger missiles, ammunition to Ukraine in new $125 million package. The U.S. announced a new $125 million military aid package for Ukraine, including Stinger missiles, artillery ammunition, and anti-armor systems. This marks the 10th tranche of military support since President Joe Biden's national security supplemental in April. Reuters Associated Press

Iran to deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia soon, intelligence sources say. Russian military personnel are being trained in Iran to operate the Fath-360 ballistic missile system, with the expected delivery of hundreds of these missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine, according to European intelligence sources. The training follows a contract signed between Russian and Iranian officials. The U.S. and its allies have warned of a "swift and severe" response if Iran proceeds with these transfers. Iran, while acknowledging military cooperation with Russia, denies selling Fath-360 missiles for the war on Ukraine. Moscow possesses an array of its own ballistic missiles, but the supply of Fath-360s could allow Russia to use more of its arsenal for targets beyond the front line, while employing Iranian warheads for closer-range targets, a military expert said. Reuters

About 30 Russian soldiers killed during Ukrainian raid on Kinburn Spit, military intelligence says. Ukrainian special forces killed around 30 Russian soldiers and destroyed six armored vehicles in a raid on the Russian-occupied Kinburn Spit on Friday, according to Ukraine's military intelligence. The operation, involving several Ukrainian units and supported by the Navy, also included raising a Ukrainian flag on the spit. Russia claimed to have thwarted the landing. The Kinburn Spit is located at the mouth of the Dnipro River, south of Kherson. It is one of the parts of Mykolaiv Oblast that remain under Russian occupation. Kyiv Independent Reuters RFE/RL

ISW Russian Campaign Offensive Assessment for Sunday, August 11, 2024. Ukraine's operation in Kursk Oblast has allowed its forces to challenge Russia's control over the theater-wide initiative. The disorganized and under-strength Russian units in Kursk Oblast are struggling to establish effective command and control. Rapid Ukrainian maneuvers in Belovsky Raion indicate Russian forces are poorly prepared to respond to further incursions. Despite the Kursk operation, the intensity of Russian assaults in eastern Ukraine has somewhat decreased, though the situation remains largely unchanged.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces have recently advanced near Kupyansk and Donetsk City. Institute for the Study of War

ISW Russian Campaign Offensive Assessment for Saturday, August 10, 2024. The Federal Security Service (FSB) Head and National Antiterrorism Committee Chairperson Alexander Bortnikov announced counterterrorism operations in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts in response to Ukraine’s incursion. Putin appointed Bortnikov to lead the operation due to his crisis management experience, indicating dissatisfaction with the military's handling of the situation.  The FSB-led operation may face coordination issues with various military units, potentially weakening Russia’s response. Russia is redeploying conscripts and frontline units to Kursk Oblast, which could strain defenses in other areas. Ukraine's operation risks sparking political backlash in Russia over the use of conscripts. Ukraine successfully struck a Russian ship and gas platform in the Black Sea. The Russian Ministry of Defense is forming the "Black Raven" strike drone volunteer unit, seeking public donations for its equipment.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces made gains near Kreminna, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City. Institute for the Study of War.

AMERICAS

The CIA Sent Him Deep Undercover to Spy on Islamic Radicals. It Cost Him Everything.  The article recounts the life and tragic death of a deep-cover CIA officer, referred to as "Anthony Lagunas," who infiltrated Islamist radical groups, including Al Qaeda, in the years following 9/11. Recruited for a secretive CIA program, Lagunas lived undercover for years, adopting an extremist identity to gather intelligence. Although his work was praised by some within the CIA as courageous and invaluable, others questioned the tangible results of his mission. His experience highlights the psychological toll of deep-cover operations, as he struggled with identity, mental health, and a sense of detachment upon returning to a more conventional life within the agency. The article explores the broader implications of the CIA's approach to human intelligence in the post-9/11 era and raises questions about the support, or lack thereof, for operatives like Lagunas who face immense personal risks. Ultimately, Lagunas' story serves as a poignant reflection on the costs of the War on Terror, both on an individual level and within the larger framework of U.S. intelligence operations.  Rolling Stone

Former officials warn campaigns to ‘buckle up’ — more hacks are likely.  A recent cyberattack targeting former President Donald Trump's 2024 campaign has raised alarms about potential widespread election interference as November approaches. The breach, allegedly orchestrated by Iranian hackers, compromised international communications documents, echoing concerns reminiscent of the 2016 election meddling. At the DEF CON hacking conference, experts and officials expressed fears that similar attacks could disrupt the upcoming election, undermining public trust in the democratic process. The Biden administration remains vigilant, with intelligence agencies warning of likely interference from Russia, China, and Iran. On Capitol Hill, lawmakers are pushing for briefings from federal agencies as they brace for further cyber threats.  Politico 

'El Mayo' says he was ambushed in new account of US arrest.  Mexican drug lord Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada claims he was tricked and forcibly taken to the United States by Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman's son, Joaquin Guzman Lopez. Zambada's statement, distributed by his lawyer, describes how he was "ambushed" during a supposed meeting with Guzman Lopez and Sinaloa state officials, including Governor Ruben Rocha and Hector Cuen. After being led into a dark room, Zambada says he was knocked down, tied up, hooded, and transported to a plane bound for the U.S. He alleges that Guzman Lopez, whom he has known since childhood, bound him to a seat on the plane. The Guzman family's lawyer, however, denies the claim, asserting that Zambada's surrender was voluntary after extended negotiations with U.S. authorities. The U.S. embassy in Mexico also stated that Guzman Lopez surrendered voluntarily, though Zambada's account suggests he was taken against his will. Zambada's statement also mentions that Cuen was killed during the incident, and a state police officer and bodyguard accompanying Zambada have since disappeared.  Reuters

In Secret Talks, U.S. Offers Amnesty to Venezuela’s Maduro for Ceding Power.  The U.S. is pursuing a high-stakes effort to push Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to step down in exchange for amnesty after evidence suggests he lost the recent election. The U.S. has considered pardoning Maduro and his top officials, offering not to pursue extradition if he leaves office before his term ends in January. Despite a landslide victory for opposition candidate Edmundo González, Maduro has maintained power by jailing dissidents and securing military loyalty. International pressure, particularly from Latin American countries, may be the only way to force Maduro out. However, Maduro's grip on power, supported by authoritarian control, makes this a difficult challenge for the Biden administration, which is focused on offering incentives rather than imposing sanctions. The talks are delicate, with the opposition collecting and publishing evidence of electoral fraud while facing severe repression from Maduro's regime, including arrests and crackdowns on protests. The situation remains tense, with Maduro showing no signs of stepping down despite international efforts. Wall Street Journal 

EUROPE

Taylor Swift terrorist plot fuels debate over Austria's message-app monitoring; chancellor urges more surveillance. Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer on Sunday called for the expansion of powers for the country's intelligence agencies to monitor communications on messaging apps like WhatsApp, Signal, and Telegram. This comes after authorities last week foiled a planned ISIS-inspired suicide attack on a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna. The attack, which was allegedly orchestrated by a 19-year-old Austrian man, led to the cancellation of three concerts. Nehammer confirmed that key suspects had been arrested, and ongoing investigations have identified more ISIS supporters. He also emphasized the need for intelligence agencies to have the ability to decrypt messaging services under judicial oversight to effectively combat terrorism and organized crime. Compared to other western countries, Austria’s restrictions on the monitoring of messaging communications are quite strict. The incident has sparked renewed debate over the nation's strict surveillance laws, particularly as it approaches a September 29 election. Reuters

Commander says Germany must prepare itself for a war with Russia in 5 years. Captain Michael Giss, the commander of the Hamburg State Command of the German Armed Forces, stated in an interview that Germany should be ready for a large-scale military conflict within five years. This urgency stems from the increased threat posed by Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. Despite Germany's recent efforts to boost its military budget and defense capabilities, Giss stressed that the country is still far from recognizing the same level of external threat perceived by nations like the Baltic states or Poland. In response to these concerns, Berlin, in partnership with NATO, initiated "Operation Plan Germany" in March 2023 to strengthen national military preparedness, particularly against a potential conventional attack by Russia within the next five years. Giss highlighted that Moscow is already engaging in hybrid warfare against NATO, including sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation. He underscored the idea that the “whole of Germany must be made ready for war,” joining other countries in the Alliance in heightened military vigilance.  Kyiv Independent Die Welt

THE MIDDLE EAST

Intel officials claim Iran is set to send ballistic missiles to Russia soon. Two European intelligence sources have reported that Russian military personnel are being trained in Iran on how to use the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, which has the capability to fire missiles with a max range of 120 km and a warhead of 150 kg. This training is believed to precede the delivery of hundreds of these satellite-guided missiles to Russia, which would be used in its ongoing war in Ukraine. The missile system, built by the government-owned Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO), is expected to allow Russia to conserve its own missile stockpile by using the Fath-360 for closer-range targets. The U.S. and its allies have threatened a strong response, warning that such a transfer would dramatically escalate Tehran's support for Moscow's military efforts in Ukraine. While the Iranian government has admitted to military cooperation with Russia, it denies selling weapons specifically for use in the Ukraine conflict. Despite these denials and Washington’s refusal to confirm these reports, intelligence suggests that Russian personnel have been training in Iran to operate these systems, indicating an impending missile transfer. The situation has raised international concerns, particularly due to the potential strain on Kyiv's already overstretched missile defense systems. Reuters

Iran’s Pezeshkian nominates seasoned diplomat Araghchi as foreign minister. Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian on Sunday nominated Abbas Araghchi, a former nuclear talks negotiator with a Western education, as foreign minister. Araghchi, 61, has a long diplomatic career, having led nuclear negotiations between Iran and world powers from 2013 to 2021. He also served as Iran's envoy to several countries, including Estonia, Finland, and Japan. Previously, he was the Foreign Ministry spokesman under President Hassan Rouhani, who faced criticism from hard-liners for his reform efforts. Araghchi, also a former member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has been a deputy foreign minister since 2013. RFE/RL Times of Israel ABC 

China backs Iranian ‘sovereignty’ and right to self-defense after assassination. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Sunday spoke over the phone with his Iranian counterpart, Ali Bagheri Kani, expressing Beijing’s support for Iran's right to defend its sovereignty following the assassination of a leading Palestinian figure in Tehran. Wang reaffirmed China's backing of Iran's efforts to maintain regional peace and stability and emphasized the importance of joint international efforts to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East and push for a ceasefire in Gaza. Wang, who called the two nations “comprehensive strategic partners,” condemned the July 31 assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, which he said infringed on Iran's sovereignty and hindered Gaza ceasefire negotiations. China also signaled its readiness to work closely with Iran's new government and has increased its role as a peace broker in the region. South China Morning Post 

U.S. to remove ban on sales of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia. The Biden administration has resolved to lift a three-year ban on U.S. sales of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia, reversing a policy that was implemented to pressure the kingdom to reduce its involvement in the Yemen war. The State Department announced that it would now consider new transfers of air-to-ground munitions to Saudi Arabia on a case-by-case basis, following improvements in Saudi Arabia's civilian harm mitigation processes and a reduction in hostilities since a U.N.-led truce in March 2022. This decision comes amid heightened tensions in the Middle East and warmer ties between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Washington is also negotiating broader agreements with Riyadh, including a potential defense pact and civil nuclear cooperation, as part of efforts to stabilize the region and potentially normalize Saudi-Israel relations. Reuters

Austin sends submarine to volatile Middle East, orders aircraft carrier to speed up transit. The U.S. Defense Department revealed on Sunday that Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin has ordered the deployment of a guided missile submarine to the Middle East and demanded that the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group accelerate its travel to the region. This decision comes as the U.S. and its allies strive for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas following the assassinations of a Hamas political leader in Tehran and a Hezbollah commander in Beirut. Washington is enhancing its military presence in the region in anticipation of potential retaliatory strikes by Iran and Hezbollah. The exact timeline for the arrival of the USS Georgia submarine and the USS Abraham Lincoln, which is carrying F-35 fighter jets and F/A-18 aircraft, remains unclear. Associated Press 

Turkey’s defense minister says priority is to fulfill NATO responsibilities. Turkey aims to strengthen its ties with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), but its primary focus remains on fulfilling its responsibilities to NATO as a key ally, according to Defense Minister Yasar Guler. He emphasized that Turkey's priority is to ensure NATO remains “prepared, determined, and strong.” The SCO, founded in 2001 by Russia, China, and Central Asian states, serves as a counterbalance to Western alliances. Reuters 

Official says Turkey and Syria could potentially meet at ministerial level if conditions are suitable. In an interview with Reuters, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler said that Turkey and Syria could come together at the ministerial level as part of efforts to normalize relations, if suitable conditions are engendered. Last month, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said he would invite Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to discussions on normalizing ties. Assad, however, has asserted that those talks could only occur if the two nations focus on key problems, such as the departure of Turkish forces from Syria’s north. Reuters 

Islamic State takes responsibility for Kabul blast that left 1 dead. The Islamic State (IS) group has claimed responsibility for a bomb explosion in Kabul, Afghanistan, on Sunday that killed at least one person and injured 11 others. The fatal assault targeted a minivan carrying members of the Shiite minority community in the Dushti Barchi neighborhood, a location that has been frequently attacked by IS militants. The area has seen previous assaults on schools, hospitals, and mosques by the IS affiliate, which has been a major competitor to the Taliban since they took control of Afghanistan in August 2021. Afghan police continue to investigate the incident. Associated Press RFE/RL

ASIA & OCEANIA

Philippines says Chinese Air Force’s actions are 'illegal', 'reckless’ following incident. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Sunday denounced the behavior of China’s air force in the South China Sea, labeling its actions "unjustified, illegal, and reckless." This rebuke comes after a Thursday confrontation near the Scarborough Shoal, in which two Chinese aircraft released flares in the path of a Philippine aircraft during a routine patrol. This marks the first significant air incident between the two countries since Marcos took office in 2022. The Chinese military accused the Philippines of "illegally intruding" into its airspace, while Manila called the actions "dangerous and provocative” and Marcos urged Beijing to act responsibly to avoid further instability. The Scarborough Shoal is a highly disputed area in the South China Sea, where several nations claim swaths of territory. Analysts suggest that Beijing's actions are a show of force in response to the Philippines' involvement in multinational drills promoting freedom of navigation, and that the world is likely to see more “dog fights up in the sky.” Reuters

China is dreading a round two of a trade war with Trump. China managed to scrape by during its trade war with the U.S. during the presidency of Donald Trump, and even brought about its own recovery, but a second round of raised tariffs and economic damage will be much more difficult to surmount. The GOP nominee has proposed raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 60% or more, which would significantly harm Beijing's economy, already weakened by internal challenges such as a property crisis, low consumer confidence, and struggling local governments. During Trump’s first term, tariffs of up to 25% on Chinese goods hurt the nation's exports, though they eventually rebounded, particularly during the pandemic when Western consumer purchases soared. However, China’s economy is now more vulnerable, relying heavily on exports and making it more sensitive to further trade tensions. If Trump’s proposed tariffs are implemented, it could reduce Beijing’s GDP growth by up to 2.5 percentage points. China might respond by weakening its currency, offering more support to exporters, or retaliating with its own tariffs and restrictions. Additionally, other countries are also starting to resist Chinese imports, which could further limit the Asian giant's ability to offset the impact of U.S. tariffs by finding new markets. Wall Street Journal 

China considers anti-drone tech critical for future combat success. China has not failed to notice the efficiency of anti-drone weapons in the Ukraine war, and has been pushing the PLA and private manufacturers to bolster production of the technology. China’s military has closely monitored the use of drone technology in conflicts like Ukraine and Gaza, and has been conducting regular exercises to test its own anti-drone capabilities. The PLA Daily, a military newspaper, has repeatedly reported on these drills and highlighted advanced technologies, such as Britain's DragonFire laser weapon. The Chinese military is focused on the development of "smarter and higher-efficiency" anti-drone systems, recognizing the importance of counter-drone measures on the battlefield. This focus is particularly relevant in potential conflicts like a Taiwan Strait scenario, where the U.S. has threatened to create an “unmanned hellscape” and deploy thousands of drones in the event of an invasion. Domestically, the anti-drone technology market in China is booming, spurred by international conflicts and internal security needs. Beijing has also tightened restrictions on exporting drone technology with military applications, focusing instead on meeting the strong domestic demand. The country's integrated supply chain is cited as a key advantage in producing cost-effective, high-quality anti-drone systems. South China Morning Post

China ‘wary’ as Japan strengthens defense ties with Vietnam and the Philippines. Japan's recent military engagements with South China Sea claimants like Vietnam and the Philippines have drawn Beijing's attention, and could potentially push the superpower to seek countermeasures. Japan's actions, such as deepening defense ties with Vietnam and conducting joint military exercises with the Philippines, are considered to be part of a broader strategy to strengthen regional security cooperation against perceived threats from China. Tokyo's defense cooperation with Hanoi, including the provision of military equipment, signals a growing security partnership, which China views warily. Japan's involvement in the South China Sea is part of its effort to support other nations in countering China's influence. Beijing may respond diplomatically but is unlikely to be overly concerned with recent developments due to its confidence, and strong regional military presence. Nonetheless, its aggressive actions in the region have compelled other countries to seek closer ties with external powers like Japan. Observers argue that while Tokyo's agreements and military support are significant, these efforts may not substantially alter the situation in the South China Sea, as they are minor in the broader context of ongoing disputes. South China Morning Post

Hong Kong court upholds convictions of leading pro-democracy advocates over 2019 protest.  Hong Kong’s Court of Final Appeal (CFA) on Monday rejected an appeal to overturn the convictions of media tycoon Jimmy Lai and six other prominent pro-democracy activists related to their part in the 2019 anti-government protests. Lai, founder of the now-closed Apple Daily, and the others were convicted in 2021 for orchestrating and participating in an unauthorized assembly during the protests. Although a lower court had previously overturned their conviction for organizing the assembly, the conviction for participation was upheld. The top court dismissed their appeal, arguing that the activists' claim of "operational proportionality" based on UK legal principles was not applicable in Hong Kong's legal system. The judges deemed the activists' arguments as "unsustainable" and inappropriate for constitutional challenges in Hong Kong. Lai and three former lawmakers received prison sentences ranging from eight to 18 months, later reduced after their organizing conviction was overturned. Martin Lee, a veteran democrat, and two others, including a barrister and a politician, received suspended sentences. Lai is also facing separate charges of "sedition and collusion with foreign forces." The legal environment in Hong Kong has become more restrictive since Beijing imposed a national security law in 2020 and introduced a tougher law in March 2023. Associated Press Deutsche Welle The Japan Times 

Seoul, Washington to hold annual exercises amid North Korea’s increasing threats. South Korea and the U.S. are set to begin their annual Ulchi Freedom Shield summer military drills from August 19 to 29 to enhance their readiness against North Korea's growing weapons and cyber threats. These exercises, which will involve about 19,000 South Korean troops and include a range of field maneuvers, live-fire, and amphibious drills, are designed to address "realistic threats" such as missile attacks, GPS jamming, and cyberattacks. The drills will also support simultaneous civil defense exercises in South Korea, simulating a nuclear attack scenario. The American and South Korean militaries stress that these exercises are defensive in nature, aimed at deterring Pyongyang's weapons of mass destruction. Despite this, North Korea has historically criticized these drills as provocative rehearsals for nuclear war. The exercises are among the largest in the Indo-Pacific region and will include participation from member states of the U.N. Command. Reuters Associated Press

Australian spy chief says foreign meddling, by allies and enemies alike, is not uncommon.  Several nations, including some considered to be allies, have attempted to interfere with or influence diaspora communities in Australia, according to Mike Burgess, the director-general of the Australian Security Intelligence Organization (ASIO). While he confirmed a past case involving Iran, he did not specify which other countries have been involved in foreign interference or attempts to “threaten and intimidate Australians” in these diaspora communities. Burgess did, however, note that such interference is a regular occurrence, sometimes unintentionally and sometimes deliberately. He also expressed concerns about rising political tensions in Australia, particularly in the context of upcoming elections and the increased terrorism threat level. Burgess emphasized the challenges posed by misinformation on social media and the growing exposure of minors to violent extremism, which could be exacerbated during the election period. Deutsche Welle 

For the first time, Australia tests its sophisticated SM-6 naval air defense missile. Canberra on Saturday announced that the Royal Australian Navy successfully test-fired a Raytheon SM-6 missile from the Navy ship HMAS Sydney, marking the first time the nation has tested this advanced air-defense weapon. The test took place near Hawaii during the Pacific Dragon 2024 exercise, representing a key step in integrating the missile into Australia's defense capabilities. The SM-6, the most advanced naval air defense missile in the U.S. arsenal, can target ballistic missiles, ships, ground targets, and even aircraft. The SM-6 missile will be deployed on Australia's Hobart-class destroyers, enhancing their ability to defend against and deter adversaries from greater distances. Although Australia has not disclosed how many SM-6 missiles it plans to purchase, the initial deal approved in 2021 was estimated at $350 million, covering both SM-6 and older SM-2 missiles. The SM-6's versatility adds significant value to Australia's naval missile arsenal, complementing other advanced systems like the Naval Strike Missile, a sophisticated anti-ship missile. Reuters Naval News Australian Broadcasting Corporation 

Drone attack kills dozens of Rohingya, including children, fleeing Myanmar. Scores of people, including families with young children, were killed in a drone assault on Muslim Rohingya civilians fleeing Myanmar. The attack occurred last week, as civilians attempted to cross the Naf River into Bangladesh, with witnesses describing horrific scenes of wounded survivors and bodies on the riverbanks. The incident, the deadliest known assault on civilians in Rakhine state during recent fighting, saw allegations from both the Arakan Army and Myanmar’s military, with each blaming the other. Clashes between military government soldiers and Arakan Army troops erupted on the riverbank last Tuesday, with one witness reporting the close-range execution of civilians by Arakan Army soldiers. Videos circulating on social media appear to show the aftermath of the attack, though the exact number of casualties remains unclear. Estimates range from 70 to over 200 deaths. Survivors recount terror as drones attacked the crowds outside the coastal town of Maungdaw, leading to further tragedy as boats carrying fleeing Rohingya sank in the river, drowning many more. One witness, speaking to Reuters from a refugee camp in Bangladesh, said the attack killed his pregnant wife and 2-year-old child. The brutal assault has drawn condemnation from activists and diplomats, with reports confirming the scale of the violence. The ongoing conflict in Myanmar, exacerbated by the military's 2021 coup, has forced many ethnic Rohingya to flee, with this recent attack shedding light on the severe persecution they continue to face. Reuters Associated Press

AFRICA

Sudan official says consultations with U.S. on armistice talks end without pact.  The leader of the Sudanese delegation to Jeddah in Saudi Arabia said Sunday that consultations with U.S. officials ended without success; the goal of the discussions had been to decide whether a delegation representing the army or the government will participate in upcoming peace talks in Geneva on August 14. The peace talks aim to end the 15-month conflict between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary. Reuters 

Rwanda swears in long-time President Kagame after re-election. Rwanda's President Paul Kagame was sworn in for another five-year term after winning a landslide victory in last month's election, securing 99.18% of the vote. This extends his nearly 25 years in power. Kagame, a former rebel leader, has been praised for ending the 1994 genocide and transforming Rwanda into a hub for investment and aid. However, his tenure has been marred by allegations of human rights abuses, suppression of dissent, and support for rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which he denies. During the swearing-in ceremony, attended by thousands and 22 African heads of state, Kagame emphasized that his new mandate requires even harder work for the country's continued progress. The election, in which his main opponents conceded, faced criticism from rights groups for alleged crackdowns on media, opposition, and civil society, but the government has rejected these claims. Reuters

CYBER & TECH

CYBER & TECH

Ukraine, other conflicts intensify Chinese interest in anti-drone technologies.  The official Chinese military newspaper, The PLA Daily, has regularly reported on the use of anti-drone weapons on the battlefields of Ukraine and in exercises of the People’s Liberation Army.  It recently covered the use of anti-drone technology during military drills in Kunming.  Previously, the newspaper noted that the study of foreign militaries’ counter-drone applications revealed that “detection, electronic jamming … and other means to implement anti-UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] operations…often achieve good results.”  The daily endorsed efforts to provide “smarter and higher-efficiency” anti-drone systems for Chinese forces.  Another Chinese media source, the Globe Weekly published by the Xinhua news agency, observed in an article on Israeli air defense that “whichever side can effectively counter the other side’s use of drones can better seize the initiative on the battlefield.”  A Chinese source involved in the drone defense industry said that the Ukraine conflict has influenced business planning in the sector, pointing out that “our country’s drones are amazing, and once there is a spear, there must be a shield.” South China Morning Post 

Neuberger, Nakasone discuss ransomware challenges at DefCon conference.  Anne Neuberger, the deputy national security advisor for cyber, told an audience at the DefCon conference in Las Vegas that more than $1.3 billion in 2023 was paid in ransoms to threat actors.  She said that earlier efforts by the Biden administration to ban ransom payments have been put on “pause” due to the acute circumstances of victims like hospitals and other sensitive organizations.  Neuberger added that certain “controls” on payments could be considered in the future to remove incentives for businesses to meet ransom demands.  The cyber advisor acknowledged multiple challenges to effective countermeasures to the ransomware surge.  “There isn't law enforcement cooperation today between the U.S. and Russia,” she said, adding that “from an infrastructure perspective, we've done takedowns of infrastructure, often with partners around the world. They're temporary. There's so much vulnerable infrastructure that attackers can use.”   Neuberger mentioned that 70 countries will gather in September under the  Counter Ransomware Initiative to share information on blockchain analysis and regulatory approaches with the goal of better coordinating efforts to stop ransomware.  Paul Nakasone, the former head of the U.S. Cyber Command and National Security Agency, also spoke at DefCon about ransomware issues.   “We need increased pressures on countries like Russia,” he said.  Nakasone pointed to other initiatives as will, commenting that “we need some new and innovative ideas to be able to address the profit motive and the profitability of what these criminals are doing.”   The Record

Federal departments working on cyber insurance for ‘catastrophic’ incidents. National Cyber Director Harry Coker said at the Black Hat conference last week that the White House is collaborating with the Treasury Department and CISA on a new policy focused on cyber insurance to be used for catastrophic cyber incidents.  The goal, Coker said, is to arrive at a remedy designed to “manage risk, not avoid risk.  He said the policy will be released by the end of 2024.  One of the key issued to be addressed, Coker said, concerns actuaries, who perform risk assessments for insurance policies, including reviews of company cybersecurity practices and defenses.  Separately, a spokesperson for the national cyber director’s office said the joint effort emerged from the agencies’ recognition of “a gap with respect to the insurance market’s ability to respond to catastrophic cyber incidents.”  The spokesperson added that “we are actively engaging with both the insurance industry and policyholder community to understand different stakeholder needs.” The Record

CISA director says software defects are core of cybersecurity problems.  CISA Director Jen Easterly characterized the threat landscape that faces cyber defenders worldwide, remarking, “we don’t have a cybersecurity problem; we have a software quality problem.”  Speaking at the Black Hat conference in Las Vegas, Easterly said substantial advances in computer security will require dramatic changes in how software producers develop their products.  “For decades,” Easterly said, “technology vendors have been allowed to create defective, insecure, flawed software.”  A CISA initiative, the secure-by-design pledge, has now been signed by 200 companies.  Easterly noted that software vendors should no longer treat vulnerabilities like “an inevitable act of nature,” adding that other industries consider similar flaws as “product defects.”  She added that Congress can play a role in transforming current practice “by establishing a software liability regime with an articulable standard of care and safe harbor provisions for those vendors that innovate responsibly, prioritizing secure development processes.” CyberScoop

Chinese courts issue precedent-setting decisions on generative AI uses.  A string of Chinese court decisions concerning generative AI indicate the country’s determination to establish standards for the technology.  An April ruling reinforced an individual’s right to their own voice in a case involving several companies that were found to be guilty of AI-replicated voice infringement.  This was the country’s first case related to the use of generative AI in mimicking an individual’s voice.  Other Chinese court cases have set precedents on AI-created images, including a decision that a generative AI service infringed on a copyrighted Japanese cartoon figure.  This case involved a violation of China’s Interim Measures for the Management of Generative Artificial Intelligence Services, the world’s first comprehensive law on generative AI.  Li Zhihui, an AI expert at Japan's Nomura Research Institute, believes the courts involvement in monitoring generative AI issues reflects China’s intense interest in the potential of the technology.  Li added, "the social implementation of generative AI is progressing rapidly, and legal issues are also becoming apparent."  Nikkei

Nearly 2.7 billion records of U.S. individuals leaked on hacker forum – A data leak reportedly from National Public Data (NPD), a data collection service, has exposed almost 3 billion personal information records of U.S. citizens.  Leaked data appearing on a hacking forum revealed names, social security numbers, and addresses.  Back in April, a threat actor dubbed USDoD offered for sale 2.9 billion records he claimed were stolen from NPD and represented information on individuals from the U.S., Britain, and Canada.  Since the USDoD claim, threat actors have released segments of the data, with each leak sharing a different number of records and different data.  The latest leak appearing on a hacker forum totals 277GB and includes 2.7 billion plaintext records.  Bleeping Computer

REPORT INFO

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion inThe Cipher Brief