Report for Monday, April 8, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Zelensky seeks to set date for peace summit

Russia's foreign minister visits China to discuss Ukraine, Asia-Pacific

Israel withdraws division of troops from southern Gaza

US, Japan, Australia, Philippines hold South China Sea exercises

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – Ignore the Threat of Russian Intelligence Operations at Your Own Risk.

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE — Israel’s War Against Hamas, Six Months Later.

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVE EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – Securing America’s Technological Future is a Shared Mission.

THE ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE — Israel’s War Against Hamas, Six Months Later.

Gaza Cease-Fire Talks Resume in Cairo.  CIA Director William Burns met with Egyptian and Qatari mediators in Cairo Sunday in a resumption of Gaza cease-fire talks. David Barnea, director of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, was expected to join them soon.  Egyptian officials said Hamas officials were also in Cairo.  The Israeli delegation received a mandate to be more flexible, according to an Israeli official.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday said Hamas’ demands were still extreme because they would end the war permanently and leave Hamas intact. He said that Israel would agree to a cease-fire if the hostages are released. “Israel is ready for a deal, Israel is not ready for surrender,” Netanyahu said. Last week, according to the Washington Post, Biden called Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi and the emir of Qatar to urge them to put more pressure on Hamas to reach a deal.  National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan will meet Monday with family members of some of the 100 hostages still believed to be in Gaza.  Under intense pressure from The White House, Israel dramatically increased the amount of humanitarian aid it inspected and allowed into Gaza Sunday, to 322 aid trucks, the highest one-day number since Oct. 7.  Wall Street Journal Washington Post Associated Press Reuters

Israel withdraws division of troops from southern Gaza.  The Israeli military announced Sunday it withdrew a division of ground troops from southern Gaza, leaving just one brigade, but stressed its plans for a ground operation in Rafah weren’t canceled.  The army said that the 98th Commando Division had left Khan Younis in southern Gaza in order “to recuperate and prepare for future operations.” No Israeli troops remained actively maneuvering in southern Gaza, according to the Israeli press.  Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant said the military was preparing for “follow-up missions” that included Rafah.  Military operations will continue, he said, until “we will reach a situation where Hamas does not control the Gaza Strip and where it does not function as a military framework that poses a risk to the citizens of the State of Israel.” "The war is not over,” Israel Defense Forces spokesman Lt Col Peter Lerner told the BBC. “War can only be over when they [hostages] come home and when Hamas is gone…It is a decline in the forces but there are more operations that need to be conducted. Rafah is clearly a stronghold. We need to dismantle Hamas' capabilities wherever they are." Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel is “one step away from victory” in its war against Hamas.  Meanwhile, thousands of protesters rallied in Jerusalem on Sunday demanding the release of around 130 hostages still held in Gaza after six months of Israel's war against Hamas.  Asked whether the government was doing enough to bring back the hostages, 56% of people polled in a survey aired by Israel's N12 News Sunday said no, against 39% who said yes.  BBC New York Times Reuters Bloomberg Politico Reuters

[shortcode-ExpertComment comment="(Regarding the influence behind why the Israeli military says it has reduced its ground troops in southern Gaza) "I think a significant amount is a result of President Biden leaning in appropriately on our friend and ally, Israel, but doing so in a very pragmatic way."" text-source="Today Show" expert-slug="admiral-james-stavridis" expert-id="2270273351"]

Biden Senate ally opposes halt in US arms sales to Israel.   Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del, a close ally of President Joe Biden in the Senate, rejected a call by more than three dozen House Democrats, including former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, to withhold arms sales to Israel pending a full investigation into the Israeli missile strike that killed seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza.  “In the face of a possible attack from Iran, I don’t agree that we should in any way constrain or stop the delivery of defensive material that is essential for Israel’s defense,” Coons said on Fox News Sunday.   Iran is promising retaliation for an air strike on its consulate in Damascus that killed officers of the elite Quds Force.

Israel has received more U.S. foreign aid since World War II than any other nation.  In 2016, the U.S. and Israeli governments signed a third 10-year Memorandum of Understanding, covering up to Sept. 30, 2028, that would provide $38 billion in military assistance over the decade, including $33 billion in grants to buy military equipment and $5 billion for missile defense systems. Israel is the first ally to receive the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.  As of last year it had taken delivery of 36, paying for them with U.S. assistance, and will eventually get 75.  The U.S. helped Israel develop and arm its Iron Dome short-range rocket defense system and has sent Israel hundreds of millions of dollars to replenish its supply of interceptor missiles.  Bloomberg Reuters

UK support to Israel ‘not unconditional.  British Foreign Secretary David Cameron wrote in an opinion piece for theSunday Times that the U.K.’s support to Israel is “not unconditional.”    “We expect such a proud and successful democracy to abide by international humanitarian law, even when challenged in this way,” Cameron said.   Three U.K. citizens were among seven aid workers killed in air strikes on a convoy from the World Central Kitchen Monday. In his op-ed, Cameron said the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must “allow more aid into Gaza.”  he detailed plans to land U.K. aid supplies into the Israeli port of Ashdod, near north Gaza, where starvation is worst.  He supported a maritime humanitarian corridor from Cyprus to Gaza.  On Saturday, Cameron’s office said that a Royal Navy ship will supply aid to Gaza as part of that new corridor, which includes a U.S.-army built temporary pier off the coast of Gaza. Cameron said the U.K. has pledged 9.7 million pounds ($12.26 million) for aid equipment and logistical expertise to help set up the maritime corridor.  Aid will be pre-screened in Cyprus and delivered directly to Gaza, through the new pier or via Ashdod port, which Israel opened for aid after President Biden had a stern talk with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in the wake of Israel’s negligent killing of the World Central Kitchen volunteers. U.K. Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden said on Sky News Sunday that Israel has made “big mistakes” and that “we should hold them to account for that.” Politico Reuters

Hezbollah leader calls strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus 'turning point.'   Appearing on Lebanese television Friday, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said Israel's air strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus last week that killed seven Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps members marked a "turning point." Among the dead:  Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the IRGC top commander in the Mideast, in charge of Iran’s network of proxy militias, particularly in Lebanon and Syria. Iran has vowed revenge. "Be certain, be sure, that the Iranian response to the targeting of the consulate in Damascus is definitely coming against Israel," Nasrallah said.  Israel has braced itself, canceling leave for combat units and reinforcing air defense units.  Reuters 

World Court hearings starting on Nicaragua’s charge accusing Germany of facilitating genocide in Gaza.  Preliminary hearings open Monday at the World Court in The Hague in a case brought by Nicaragua that seeks to end German military aid to Israel, based on allegations that Berlin is “facilitating” acts of genocide and breaches of international law in the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.  Meanwhile, a group of about 600 German civil servants have written to Chancellor Olaf Scholz and other senior ministers calling on the government to stop arm deliveries to the Israeli government,  “Israel is committing crimes in Gaza that are in clear contradiction to international law and thus to the Constitution, which we are bound to as federal civil servants and public employees,” the group’s statement says.  Associated Press Al Jazeera

THE RED SEA

Two vessels reportedly targeted southwest of Yemen's Aden.  Houthi forces in Yemen have claimed to have launched rockets and drones targeting British, U.S., and Israeli ships in the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and Indian Ocean over the past 72 hours, as part of their campaign of attacks on shipping, which they say is in support of Palestinians during the Gaza conflict. According to Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree, the group targeted a British ship and several U.S. frigates in the Red Sea, as well as two Israeli vessels heading toward Israeli ports in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. Britain and the United States have responded with retaliatory strikes against the Houthis, with CENTCOM reporting the destruction of a mobile surface-to-air missile system in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen on Saturday. CENTCOM also said that U.S. forces shot down an unmanned aerial vehicle over the Red Sea, and a coalition vessel detected, engaged, and destroyed an inbound anti-ship missile, although no injuries or damage were reported.  Reuters Stars and Stripes

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Desperate Zelensky warns 'Ukraine will lose the war' if Congress does not send more aid. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urgently requested more U.S. military aid, warning Ukraine could “lose the war” against Russia without it. "It is necessary to specifically tell Congress that if Congress does not help Ukraine, Ukraine will lose the war," Zelensky said in a Sunday video statement. He stressed that Ukraine's defeat could lead to Russia invading other countries. Despite the U.S. already contributing over $100 billion, further aid is stalled by Republicans in Congress. Zelensky's appeal comes amid ongoing Russian missile and drone attacks. The funding debate within the GOP highlights a rift. Fox News Kyiv Independent Politico

Zelensky meets bipartisan US Congress delegation, calls to pass Ukraine aid bill.  President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday urged a bipartisan U.S. Congressional delegation in Chernihiv Oblast to expedite the passage of a crucial $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, stalled in the House since last fall.  The delegation included Republicans Joni Ernst, Ashley Hinson and Chuck Edwards, and Democrats Wiley Nickel, Tom Suozzi  and Michael Quigley.  Zelensky highlighted the importance of U.S. support for Ukraine's resistance and military preparedness amid ongoing Russian advances. “It is very important that in the village of Yahidne, you saw with your own eyes the terrible consequences of Russian aggression,” Zelensky said. During the Russian occupation of Yahidne, 367 residents, the majority of the village's population, were kept in a basement for 27 days by the Russians, where 50 children were among the hostages and 11 people died.  Kyiv Independent

ANALYSIS - With no way out of a worsening war, Zelensky’s options look bad or worse. Over two years into Russia's invasion, Ukraine faces a grim reality with no end to the conflict in sight. President Volodymyr Zelensky insists on regaining all territory, a goal that appears increasingly difficult as the front lines have barely shifted. Negotiations with Russia are politically unfeasible, and a cease-fire would only benefit Russian forces. Ukraine's reliance on Western military aid, particularly from the U.S., is hampered by Congressional delays. With Russian forces intensifying their offensive and Ukrainian ammunition dwindling, the situation grows more dire. Zelensky also faces the challenge of managing domestic expectations and the economic strain of prolonged war, with potential large-scale mobilizations being unpopular and economically burdensome. Washington Post

Zelensky hopes to set Swiss world peace summit date within days. Ukrainian President Zelensky hopes to set a date soon for a global peace summit in Switzerland, aiming to include 80 to 100 countries but excluding Russia. The summit seeks to promote a fair peace with Russia, despite Russian objections to being excluded. Zelensky views Turkey as a potential mediator. The initiative reflects efforts to engage a broad international coalition in addressing the war with Russia. Reuters

Russia's foreign minister arrives in China to talk about Ukraine and Asia-Pacific. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in China on Monday to discuss the Ukraine war and strengthen Moscow-Beijing ties. His meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will cover bilateral cooperation and other pressing issues, including the situation in the Indo-Pacific. This visit precedes President Vladimir Putin's planned trip to China in May for talks with President Xi Jinping, amid a closer partnership between the nations. The discussions occur as the West views China and Russia as major threats. Trade between China and Russia reached a record $240 billion in 2023, highlighting their growing economic relationship. Hit with sanctions that closed access to Western markets and finances after sending its troops to Ukraine, Russia has since become China's fastest-growing trade partner. Xi, in a call with Putin last month, said both sides should oppose interference in domestic affairs by external forces, an apparent reference to the U.S. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong said bilateral ties were "at their best in history" when he met his Russian counterpart in Moscow last month. Reuters Reuters Kyiv Independent 

La Repubblica: NATO considering Ukraine's accession to the alliance in exchange for territorial concession to Russia.  NATO is reportedly unofficially considering a scenario where Russia keeps its seized territories, and the rest of Ukraine joins NATO, especially if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidency in November.  This notion, seen as "Kyiv's surrender," involves territories exchanged for security, allowing Ukraine immediate NATO membership. However, this proposal was not officially discussed at the last NATO summit, according to the report by Italy’s La Repubblica.  Front News Ukraine Ukraine Business News

Inside Donald Trump’s secret, long-shot plan to end the war in Ukraine.  Former President Donald Trump has reportedly suggested privately that he could end the war in Ukraine by urging Ukraine to cede Crimea and the Donbas region to Russia. This stance diverges sharply from U.S. policy aimed at deterring Russian aggression. Critics argue that this approach rewards Russian President Vladimir Putin and undermines international principles by allowing for forceful border changes. Despite Trump's confidence in negotiating a quick peace, details of his plan remain vague. His proposal reflects a broader skepticism toward foreign intervention and a historical admiration for Putin. Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally, emphasized the importance of not allowing Putin to benefit from aggression, stating, "He has to pay a price. He can't win at the end of this. The way you end this war to me is you make sure Ukraine gets into NATO and the European Union.”  Washington Post

Budanov: Renewed Russian offensive expected in late spring or early summer. Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's military intelligence chief, anticipates a renewed Russian offensive in late spring or early summer, particularly around the eastern Donbas region. In an interview published on Sunday, Budanov highlighted potential Russian movements towards Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, emphasizing the strategic importance of these areas. Budanov urged Western allies to provide more weaponry, including artillery systems and German-made Taurus long-range cruise missiles. Despite NATO intelligence suggesting a large-scale Russian offensive is unlikely without further mobilization, Ukraine remains on alert, especially around Kharkiv.  Kyiv Independent

Russia might conduct regular mobilization campaigns in the near future, Zelensky says. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday indicated that Russia's plan to mobilize 300,000 troops by June might not be its final number, hinting at further escalation by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Amid ongoing conscriptions, including a spring campaign to enlist 150,000 citizens, Ukraine is bracing for increased Russian forces. Zelensky criticized the quality of Russian military training and emphasized the need for Ukraine to prepare by updating its legal framework on mobilization and ensuring units are staffed with experienced personnel. New mobilization laws aim to lower Ukraine's draft eligibility to age 25 from 27. Kyiv Independent

Russia pounds Kharkiv in deadly barrage, straining Ukraine’s defenses. Russia's intensified bombings on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city just 20 miles from the Russian border, killed at least seven people on Saturday, straining Ukraine's defenses amid delays in American aid. Russia is more frequently attacking with glide bombs, modified with a set of wings and guidance systems to allow them to be dropped by fighter bombers out of range of Ukrainian air defense systems. More than 20,000 buildings have been destroyed in Kharkiv since Russia launched its full-scale invasion. Ukrainian government officials estimate it will cost more than $10 billion to rebuild everything that has already been destroyed. Since  December, Kharkiv has endured increased bombardments, Mayor Ihor Terekhov insists Kharkiv won't succumb to becoming a "gray zone.” In his nightly video address on Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelensky said the world must "finally hear" the pain inflicted on Kharkiv and other cities by Russian attacks and renewed a call for "political will" to ensure that Ukraine secures proper air defenses. A day earlier, in a television interview on Saturday, Zelensky said Kharkiv is vulnerable to air strikes but in no danger of being captured by Russians. He said ground forces had completed fortifications along the frontline and borders. "Kharkiv is protected today," Zelensky said.  New York Times  Associated Press The Economist 

Russian military says it took control of a village in eastern Ukraine. Russian forces claimed to have captured the tiny village of Vodyane in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk Oblast, marking their latest advance since seizing Avdiivka. Reuters couldn't verify these claims. Ukrainian forces, facing artillery shortages, struggle amidst U.S. aid delays. Meanwhile, tensions rise near Chasiv Yar, with Ukraine denying Russian progress in the area. Reuters

Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear reactor damaged following drone attack. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine was damaged Sunday by a drone attack, killing one person and risking a major nuclear accident, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The attack, which hit the plant's main reactor containment three times, was condemned by IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi as a violation of principles protecting nuclear facilities. “Such reckless attacks significantly increase the risk of a major nuclear accident and must cease immediately,” Grossi said. Russian authorities accused Ukraine of the attack, which also damaged a food delivery truck and the facility's cargo port area. Ukraine denied involvement, blaming Russia. The plant has been a contention point since Russian forces took control in March 2022, with operations and safety continuously compromised. The IAEA, which has experts at the site, said it was the first time the nuclear plant, Europe's largest, was directly targeted since November 2022. Reuters Al Jazeera CNN Associated Press 

Russia carrying out illegal chemical attacks on Ukrainian soldiers. A Telegraph investigation reveals Russia is engaging in illegal chemical attacks on Ukrainian soldiers, using drones to drop banned substances like tear gas, causing panic and exposing soldiers to further conventional attacks. Frontline units across various regions report near-daily incidents, with the Ukrainian military officially claiming 626 attacks since the full-scale invasion began in 2022. Ukrainian soldiers often rely on outdated or donated equipment to protect themselves from such attacks. Chemical weapons expert Marc-Michael Blum confirmed the use of K-51 gas grenades, among other chemicals. The situation is worsened by a critical shortage of air defense missiles, as President Volodymyr Zelensky warns of the diminishing ability to protect against Russian strikes. The Telegraph

Ukraine hunts for grid equipment and ammunition to avoid summer blackouts. Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko emphasized the urgent need for enhanced air defenses to protect the nation's energy infrastructure from intensifying Russian missile attacks, aiming to prevent summer blackouts as electricity demand peaks. Recent strikes have caused unprecedented damage to Ukraine's energy grid, with the total losses yet to be fully assessed but expected to reach billions of dollars. The destruction includes significant damage to power generation and transmission facilities, with 80% of private DTEK's facilities severely damaged. Ukraine seeks international assistance for replacement equipment. However, for now, Ukraine's energy system has stabilized, the Energy Ministry said on Sunday, with no major electricity imports anticipated.  Bloomberg Reuters Kyiv Independent

Anti-Kremlin militia says 'hot phase' of recent incursions into Russia is over. The Russian Volunteer Corps announced on Sunday the end of the "hot phase" of its raids into Russia's Belgorod and Kursk regions from Ukraine, aimed at opening a second front to relieve Ukrainian forces. Led by Denis Kapustin, these anti-Kremlin militias, including the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Siberian Battalion, have reportedly clashed with Russian forces and claimed to ease pressure on certain fronts. Ukraine's military intelligence noted these actions forced Moscow to adjust its plans for a potential new northern attack. The group reported continued sabotage efforts in Russia and acknowledged losing four members. Kyiv Independent 

Pardoned for serving in Ukraine, they return to Russia to kill again. Russia's strategy of recruiting convicts for the war in Ukraine has bolstered its forces but led to unintended consequences domestically, as pardoned inmates commit new crimes upon returning. Despite the Kremlin's formalization of the pardon process, communities face a rising tide of violence from these ex-convicts, undermining the narrative of veterans as societal pillars. Cases of murder, robbery and other violent crimes have surged, leaving residents fearful and questioning the policy's wisdom. New York Times 

ANALYSIS - As Russia tests for weak spots, Ukraine is banking on enemy mistakes. In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces faced significant losses during an assault on the Donetsk Oblast village of Tonenke as Ukrainian defenders utilized drones and anti-tank weapons. Despite the setback, continuous Russian mechanized attacks aim to erode Ukrainian defenses and strain their capabilities in anticipation of a larger summer offensive. Ukraine's defense relies heavily on international support for munitions and air defenses, alongside a new mobilization effort to expand its fighting force. However, Russia’s ability to replenish its troops and military equipment remains strong, with sizable monthly recruitment and industrial output. Their enemy's tactical errors bolster Ukrainian morale, but the country is facing shortages in manpower and materiel. CNN

ANALYSIS - Ukraine’s ‘Mad Max’ Trawls Swamps and Minefields for Shells.  Facing an acute ammunition shortage, Ukrainian soldier Max Polyukhovich, nicknamed "Mad Max," has become a crucial supplier of shells by scavenging Russian munitions from swamps and minefields. With at least 14,000 shells and 4,000 drone munitions supplied, Polyukhovich's efforts help sustain Ukrainian forces amid delayed Western arms deliveries. Wall Street Journal 

ANALYSIS - Macron the Hawk.  French President Emmanuel Macron has emphasized his nation’s unwavering support for Ukraine against Russia’s war. Macron has stressed the importance of Europe's security and hinted at the possibility of Western military involvement in Ukraine if necessary to prevent a Russian victory. Europeans, he said, will “do everything that we must so that Russia does not win.” This stance has caused friction with allies like Germany, Greece and the U.S., who have distanced themselves from the idea of deploying troops. Macron's remarks come as Europe is skeptical about Ukraine's victory prospects, while former U.S. President Donald Trump threatens a laissez-faire approach toward NATO allies. France, which once sought dialogue with Russia, is now committed to militarily supporting Ukraine and advocating for its European Union and NATO membership. France’s support for Ukraine may prove to be a game-changer. Macron's leadership reflects a strategic pivot against Russian aggression, championing a larger, more integrated Europe that is crucial for continental security and resistance against external threats. A sense of urgency also shapes the French president’s posture over a rapidly deteriorating situation in Ukraine. Alexey Meshkov, Russia’s ambassador to France, said Emmanuel Macron’s recent hawkish commentary on Russia poses “a serious strategic problem.” Foreign Affairs Bloomberg

OPINION - Help Ukraine hold the line.  American military assistance is critical for Ukraine to defend itself against Russia. Most Americans support aiding Ukraine, recognizing its importance for U.S. security. However, U.S. aid is jeopardized by political deadlock, with House Speaker Mike Johnson delaying a crucial $60.1 billion aid package due to opposition from far-right members. This assistance is vital for Ukraine to match Russia's military capabilities, especially as Russia ramps up its production and receives foreign support. The delay in U.S. support has already had dire consequences for Ukraine, underscoring the urgent need for Congressional action. New York Times

The Americas

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – Ignore the Threat of Russian Intelligence Operations at Your Own Risk.

US and China hold military talks in Hawaii. U.S. and Chinese military officials met in Hawaii to discuss operational safety, U.S. officials said Friday. They reviewed past safety incidents and discussed enhancing maritime and aviation safety.  The meeting comes after efforts by Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping to ease tensions over the South China Sea.  Reuters 

Mexico breaks diplomatic relations with Ecuador. Mexico cut diplomatic ties with Ecuador on Friday after Ecuadorian police forcibly entered the Mexican Embassy in Quito to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas, whom Mexico had granted asylum amid corruption charges. The incident led Mexico to announce plans to challenge Ecuador at the United Nations International Criminal Court in The Hague. Under international law, embassies are considered the sovereign territory of the country they represent. The government of Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa argued that Mexico's asylum protections were illegal because of Glas' corruption charges.

Governments across the political spectrum in Latin America - including Brazil and Colombia on the left, and Argentina and Uruguay on the right - sharply criticized the storming of the embassy to arrest Glas. The U.S. State Department, in a statement on Saturday, said: “The United States condemns any violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, and takes very seriously the obligation of host countries under international law to respect the inviolability of diplomatic missions.”

On Saturday, Glas was transferred to a maximum-security prison known as “The Rock” in the coastal city of Guayaquil that has been used to hold violent drug bosses.  In 2017, Glas was sentenced to six years in prison after being found guilty of taking bribes from Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht in exchange for awarding it government contracts. He was convicted again in 2020 of using money from contractors to fund campaigns for Correa's political movement and given an eight-year sentence. Associated Press Wall Street Journal Reuters Washington Post Al Jazeera  ReutersWall Street Journal Associated Press Al Jazeera  CNN  

Navy cancels ship briefings after damning internal report.  As the Navy's Annual Sea-Air-Space Exposition starts, officials overseeing the service's critical shipbuilding programs will break from tradition by not offering briefings or updates to reporters and analysts.  The Navy's decision to withhold program updates comes amidst a damning report released last week, which outlined sweeping failures by the Navy and its industrial partners to make expected progress on two submarine programs, an aircraft carrier, and a new class of frigates, despite billions being invested to modernize shipyards.  Supply chain disruptions from COVID-19 and the Navy's design changes even during construction have thrown shipbuilding plans into uncertainty.  These delays and setbacks have raised concerns about the Navy's ability to keep pace with China's rapidly growing naval forces, which have already surpassed the U.S. in size, highlighting the urgency of addressing the shipbuilding challenges.  Politico 

Asia and Oceania

US, Japan, Australia and Philippines hold South China Sea exercises.  The U.S., Japan, Australia and the Philippines conducted maritime exercises in the South China Sea on Sunday, aimed at promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific amid China's assertiveness. The exercises, held in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, featured ships from all four nations and focused on communication and navigation. This cooperation seeks to enhance interoperability and comes ahead of a summit discussing regional security and in the context of recent tensions with China.  Beijing said it conducted sea patrols in the region and that all efforts to “disrupt the South China Sea” are under control, in apparent response to the allied drills.  Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said on Monday that Manila continues dialogue with China and is exhausting all options to avoid escalating tensions in the South China Sea.  He added that he hopes joint maritime activity with the U.S., Japan and Australia will help reduce maritime incidents with China.  Still, the Philippines is bolstering its defenses in its northernmost province amid regional tensions.  Reuters Reuters Bloomberg Associated Press Al Jazeera Al Jazeera

China giving geospatial intelligence to Russia, U.S. says.  China is reportedly providing geospatial intelligence to Russia, according to U.S. sources.  The reported intelligence support adds to increasing military and space integration between China and Russia.  Bloomberg 

US, China need 'tough' conversations, Yellen tells Chinese Premier Li.  U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday emphasized the need for "tough" conversations with China during her meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, which focused on concerns about China's excess industrial capacity. Li called for mutual respect and partnership, highlighting "constructive progress" in bilateral relations. Yellen's visit aimed to address issues like China's overproduction in clean energy sectors, which poses challenges to U.S. producers. Yellen also warned China of "significant consequences" if Chinese companies support Russia's war against Ukraine.  While differences exist, the discussions were described as substantive, without ideological pushback. Both sides were willing to explore economic issues further, signaling an effort to stabilize and responsibly manage the complex U.S.-China relationship. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen signaled a desire for mutual cooperation with China while acknowledging saying, “While we have more to do, I believe that, over the past year, we have put our bilateral relationship on more stable footing” in her meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang. Reuters Bloomberg Politico Reuters Reuters Associated Press Politico

India will enter Pakistan to kill terrorists who run away there, defense minister says. India's Defense Minister Rajnath Singh stated Friday that India would pursue terrorists across the Pakistan border if they fled after attempting attacks in India. This follows a Guardian report claiming India has killed about 20 people in Pakistan since 2020 as part of an anti-terrorism strategy. Singh emphasized India's desire for peaceful relations but warned against any acts promoting terrorism within its borders. The statement comes amid heightened tensions and accusations between India and Pakistan. Relations between the countries have worsened since a 2019 suicide bombing of an Indian military convoy in Kashmir was traced to Pakistan-based militants, leading New Delhi to carry out an airstrike on what it said was a militant base in Pakistan.  Reuters

Europe

Pellegrini wins Slovak presidential election in boost for pro-Russian PM Fico.  Peter Pellegrini won Slovakia's presidential election on Saturday, aligning with pro-Russian Prime Minister Robert Fico's government. With 53.26% of the vote, Pellegrini's victory supports Fico's reforms seen as weakening the rule of law and shifting toward pro-Russian policies. Despite the presidency's limited executive powers, Pellegrini's role may influence Slovakia's foreign policy and judicial appointments. Pellegrini has portrayed his opposition Ivan Korcok as a warmonger for his support for arming Ukraine and suggested he could take Slovak troops into the war in the neighboring country, which Korcok denied. Korcok had argued that a halt in supplying Ukraine would not lead to peace but to Russia's victory. Fico's coalition includes a party headed by Pellegrini that halted Slovak shipments of weapons for Ukraine.  Reuters New York Times Bloomberg

Armenia siding with EU and US after Russian betrayal. In response to perceived betrayal by Russia during Nagorno-Karabakh's seizure by Azerbaijan, Armenia is forging closer ties with the West. The U.S. and the European Union announced Friday a significant aid package for Armenia to enhance its economic and democratic resilience, including modernizing its energy grid and supporting displaced ethnic Armenians. High-level meetings among the U.S., EU and Armenian leaders signify a shift in Armenia's geopolitical alignment. EUObserver 

Russia says the main chance for dialogue with the US is on arms, including in space. Russia on Friday identified space-based weapons as a key dialogue area with the U.S. This comes as the U.S. plans to propose a United Nations Security Council resolution banning nuclear weapons in space. The proposal comes two months after U.S. sources said Washington had new intelligence related to Russian nuclear capabilities and attempts to develop a space-based weapon - something Moscow has flatly denied.  Reuters 

Russian Arctic governor survives stabbing attack. The governor of Murmansk, Andrei Chibis, survived a stabbing by a man with a criminal past who claimed to have acted out of "dislike" for Chibis, officials said Friday. A national guardsman intervened, saving Chibis, who is in serious condition but grateful to doctors after surgery. Reuters 

Dam bursts amid flooding in Russia's Urals, evacuation underway, emergency services say. Local authorities in Russia's Ural mountains Orenburg region urged residents of riverside communities to evacuate on Friday, as rising waters in the Ural River flooded villages and caused a dam to burst. Mayor Sergei Salmin described the situation as "critical," with 300 houses already flooded. The dam breach in Orsk threatens to inundate up to 4,000 houses, affecting around 10,000 residents. Reuters

A C.I.A. Black Site remains a touchy Subject for Lithuania. The village of Antaviliai in Lithuania has remained a “touchy subject” as the suspected former location of a CIA detention site or “black site”, codenamed “Site Violet,” where the agency reportedly held and interrogated terrorism suspects using enhanced interrogation techniques between 2005 and 2006, according to a 2014 Senate report and a recent European Court of Human Rights ruling. While Lithuanian officials have acknowledged the existence of a former CIA facility in Antaviliai, they have denied that it was used as a prison, maintaining a stance of official secrecy and loyalty to the United States despite multiple court cases and investigations documenting Lithuania working alongside the CIA.  New York Times

ANALYSIS - Occupy Brussels! Viktor Orban’s plan for Europe.  Viktor Orban, Hungary's prime minister, represents a novel form of Euroskepticism within the European Union, aiming not to exit but to reshape the bloc in alignment with his vision. His strategy includes bolstering Hungary's influence in Brussels through financial investment and establishing cultural and intellectual footholds to promote a conservative agenda. Orban's tactics involve rallying support among like-minded EU members and leveraging Hungary's forthcoming EU Council presidency to advocate for national sovereignty, stricter migration controls and opposition to centralized EU policies. He resists EU policies that he considers detrimental to national interests, such as sanctions on Russia and climate initiatives, emphasizing Hungary's desire to retain sovereignty and halt further EU integration.  Politico

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT OPINION - UK should consider Swedish-style conscription.   Former MI6 chief Sir Alex Younger, a Cipher Brief Expert, argues that the U.K. should consider a Swedish-style conscription to boost its numbers.  He told the BBC that the British Army needs a “wake up call” to its size, with the British Army being the smallest it has been for 300 years.  Sweden’s mandatory military conscription is small and selective, calling up around 6,000 people.  Sir Alex Younger says this would help those who are motivated to serve enter the military, which would help the U.K. address the myriad national security challenges it faces.  Forces.net 

The Middle East

Iran's foreign minister visits Oman on a regional tour.  Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian's visit to Oman on Sunday marks the beginning of his regional tour, focusing on bilateral and regional issues, including Gaza. This follows a suspected Israeli airstrike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, escalating tensions and leading to heightened U.S. alertness for potential Iranian retaliations in the region.  Reuters

Iran to Release Four Activists Jailed for Spying After Six Years.  Four Iranian environmental activists, who were jailed in 2018 on charges of spying and collaborating with the U.S. government, are set to be released from prison after more than six years behind bars “over the next few days.” Their release is part of a broader pardon or commutation of sentences for hundreds of prisoners in honor of the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. The activists, who were among at least seven environmentalists arrested in early 2018, were sentenced to up to 10 years in prison by Iran's judiciary for allegedly spying on Iranian military compounds and collaborating with the U.S. government.  Bloomberg 

Africa

Somalia’s PM Names New Foreign Minister in Cabinet Reshuffle. Somalian Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre announced a cabinet reshuffle on Sunday, appointing Ahmed Moallim Fiqi as the new foreign affairs minister to fill the vacancy left by Abshir Omar's resignation to contest the Puntland presidential elections.  Bloomberg

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVE EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – Securing America’s Technological Future is a Shared Mission.

China using AI to inflame domestic issues, Microsoft says.  Microsoft reports that China-linked influence operations are employing generative artificial intelligence to amplify contentious domestic issues in countries like the U.S. and Taiwan.  The AI-generated visual and audio content is significantly aimed at inciting discord prior to elections.  China-linked operations targeting Taiwan’s presidential election marked the first instanced observed by Microsoft Threat Intelligence of a nation state actor using AI content to influence a foreign election.  Experts say Chian is likely to continue using AI-generated content to influence elections in India, South Korea, and the U.S.  The Record 

Meta overhauls rules on deepfakes, other altered media. Meta, the parent company of Facebook, has announced major policy changes regarding digitally created and altered media, including the introduction of “Made with AI” labels for AI-generated videos, images, and audio posted on its platforms starting in May. Meta will also apply separate and more prominent labels to digitally altered media deemed to pose a “particularly high risk of materially deceiving the public on a matter of importance,” regardless of whether the content was created using AI or other tools. This new approach represents a shift from Meta's previous focus on removing a limited set of posts towards a strategy of keeping content online while providing viewers with information about how it was made.  The move comes ahead of the upcoming U.S. elections, which are expected to test the company's ability to police deceptive AI-generated content.  Reuters

Israel's Justice Ministry reviewing 'cyber incident' after hacktivists' claim breach. Israel's Justice Ministry is investigating a “cyber incident.”  Activist hackers protesting against the war in Gaza claimed to have breached the ministry's servers and retrieved hundreds of gigabytes of data. The hacking group Anonymous for Justice claimed responsibility for the breach, saying that it had obtained nearly 300 gigabytes of data, including legal documents, drafts of bilateral agreements, and contracts marked as confidential.  The group threatened to continue attacks on Israel “until the war in Gaza stops.”  While the Justice Ministry acknowledged the incident and said that experts were assessing the scope and implications of the leaked materials, it maintained that its operations remained uninterrupted, suggesting that it had prepared for such a scenario.  Reuters

Dutch set to comply with U.S. demands on China exports. The U.S. has demanded that Dutch chipmaking giant ASML stop servicing some equipment sold to Chinese customers, posing challenges for the Netherlands' government. While Prime Minister Mark Rutte has hesitated to issue a blanket decision, Dutch national security interests and public statements indicate a future alignment with Washington's export restrictions, potentially denying Chinese maintenance requests. This stance could hinder China's development of its domestic chip industry, as ASML's irreplaceable gear is crucial for chip manufacturing. The situation is complicated by Dutch security priorities, especially support for Ukraine against Russia, influencing the Netherlands' diplomatic and trade decisions. Reuters

Report Info

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Brian Bonner, Katharine Campbell, and Leighton Durham contributed to this report.

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