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Monday, April 3, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Blinken Calls Russia’s Lavrov, Urging Release of Detained Wall Street Journal Journalist.  On Sunday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken tweeted that he had spoken with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to insist on the release of Wall Street Journal (WSJ) journalist Evan Gershkovich, who is jailed in Russia on espionage charges.  Blinken said he conveyed his “grave concern over Russia’s unacceptable detention of a U.S. citizen journalist” in the call.  Blinken reportedly also urged for the release of another detained American, former Marine Paul Whelan, in the call.  According to a Russian Foreign Ministry statement, the U.S. initiated the call and Lavrov said a Russian court will decide the fate of the detained Americans.  Gershkovich could serve up to 20 years in a penal colony if convicted on espionage charges.  While the U.S. recently secured the release of two Americans – Brittney Griner and former Marine Trevor Reed – from Russian detention, Gerhskovich’s case will likely be more difficult as he is being held on spying charges.  Cipher Brief Expert and former senior CIA officer Daniel Hoffman said these charges reflect how Russian President Vladimir Putin sees the “endgame,” meaning that with Gershkovich, “he’s going to want to get one of his own spies back.”  Hoffman said Sergey Cherkasov, who was arrested in Brazil and was charged by U.S. officials last week as a Russian intelligence agent, may be who Putin is seeking to have released.  CNN New York Times Reuters Wall Street Journal

Munitions, Rockets, Radars Part of Next US Aid Package to Ukraine. Three US officials with knowledge of the situation told Reuters on Friday that a new $2.6 billion aid package to Ukraine may include air surveillance radars, anti-tank rockets, and other munitions. According to the officials, the package is set to be announced sometime in the next week. The aid is part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funding that allows for the White House to buy weapons from weapons producers to supply Ukraine. This package will bring the US contribution to Ukraine to $30 billion.  Reuters

Western Europe

German Military to Face Shortfalls till 2030, Defense Minister Says.  German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Saturday that “existing gaps” in Germany’ military “cannot be completely closed by 2030.”  He added that with these shortages, Germany cannot send more arms to Ukraine beyond announced promises, explaining that the German military has a “limited inventory” and “cannot give everything away.”  His comments confirm difficulties for Germany’s military revamp following years of investment and pressures from the Ukraine war.  Regarding top priorities, Pistorius said he will push for an increase in defense spending to the NATO target of 2 percent of GDP.  He also said Germany is planning an Indo-Pacific naval mission next year to address challenges to Europe’s freedom of navigation in the region.  Deutsche Welle Reuters

NATO Set to Send 160 Tanks to Ukraine, German Defense Minister Says.  In a separate media report, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said NATO countries are set to deliver 160 tanks to Ukraine this year.  He said Poland and others are sending two battalions of 60 total Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine in early April.  NATO countries will then send an additional four battalions of 100 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine by the end of the year.  Pistorius said the West is prepared to send up to 300 tanks to Kyiv, but, echoing earlier remarks on German defense shortages, he maintained Berlin cannot send more Leopards than announced.  Kyiv Independent

Finland PM Concedes Defeat in Election Ahead of NATO Accession.  Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin conceded defeat in parliamentary elections on Sunday.  Marin’s Social Democrats won 43 of the 200 seats in parliament, narrowly losing to the opposition right-wing National Coalition Party (NCP), which won 48 seats in parliament.  Marin’s defeat came as NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that Finland will join the alliance on Tuesday.  Turkey will hand its official texts ratifying Finland’s NATO membership to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday, at which point Stoltenberg will invite Finland to do the same.  Associated Press BBC CNN New York Times Politico

Central & Eastern Europe

St. Petersburg Blast Kills Russian Military Blogger.  An explosion in a cafe at St. Petersburg killed prominent Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky and injured 25 other people on Sunday. Russian media reports that Russian authorities arrested a woman on suspicion of being linked to the blast and they are treating Tatarsky’s death as an act of murder. Tatarsky, like other pro-war military bloggers, was important in encouraging support in Russia for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, but also criticized what he saw as flaws in the Russian Army. In recent months, he appeared to have grown increasingly pessimistic about Russia’s ability to win the war in Ukraine. It is unclear who may have been behind his death; on Monday, Russian authorities blamed Ukrainian intelligence agencies for orchestrating the bombing. In response, Ukrainian officials suggested the attack may have been the result of domestic terrorists in Russia. Russia’s foreign ministry said the “absence of reaction” from Western countries was hypocritical regarding their calls for freedom of expression for journalists, likely referring to the situation over the detained Wall Street Journal journalist in Russia. Tatarksy’s death is the latest killing of a top pro-war voice in Russia, following a car bombing near Moscow in August 2022 that killed Daria Dugina, the daughter of ultra-nationalist Russian ideologue Alexander Dugin.  BBC Reuters RFE/RL Washington Post New York Times

Belarus’ Lukashenko Calls for Russian Strategic Nuclear Weapons.  Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Friday that he welcomes the possibility of Russia deploying strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus, in addition to the tactical nuclear warheads Moscow is already deploying.  He claimed the weapons are necessary to counter a Western-led plot to invade Belarus from Poland and “destroy” it – an accusation he did not provide evidence for.  His comments mark the first time he has spoken on the nuclear deployment after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement last week that Russia will finish a storage facility for the tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus in July.  Lukahsenko’s remarks are an escalation in rhetoric, since the strategic nuclear weapons he is calling for can be used to level whole cities, while the tactical nuclear weapons that Russia has mentioned so far are designed for limited use in specific battlefields.  Al Jazeera CNN

Russia’s Top General in Ukraine ‘Pushing Limits’ of Failure, UK Says.  The British Ministry of Defense said Saturday that Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian General Staff (CGS) and top commander of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, is “pushing the limits” of the Russian leadership’s tolerance of failure in the war.  The ministry noted Gerasimov’s primary failure is the inability of Russia’s winter offensive to make significant progress in Ukraine’s Donbas region.  As Ukraine gears up for a counter-offensive, continued setbacks for Russia’s military may see Gerasimov – who is the fourth commanding general that Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed to oversee the Ukraine invasion – out the door.  CNN UK Ministry of Defense Twitter

Russian Defense Minister Visits Ukraine HQ, Promises More Ammunition.  Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited the headquarters of Russian forces fighting in Ukraine on Saturday.  During his visit, which Russian General Valery Gerasimov was present for, Shoigu promised that Russia is taking steps to “increase” the supply of needed munitions.  His remarks come after months of criticism from pro-war voices, including Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, that Russia is not adequately supplying its forces in Ukraine with sufficient ammunition.  France 24 Reuters

Russian Shelling in East Ukraine Kills 6.  Russian shelling in eastern Ukraine hit a residential area on Sunday, killing six civilians. The shelling of Kostyantynivka, 15 miles west of the frontline, killed three men and three women and wounded 11 others, according to Ukrainian President Zelensky. The attack comes amidst continued fighting in Ukraine’s east. Ukraine’s military says it is continuing to battle Russian forces in Bakhmut as well as nearby towns such as Avidiivka, Vuhledar, Lyman and Marinka.  The head of Russia’s Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, claimed Monday that his mercenaries have raised a flag over the main administrative building in Bakhmut, but Ukrainian forces rejected this, saying that the battle around the building is still ongoing.  New York Times Reuters CNN

French and Ukrainian Leaders Discuss Defense Cooperation. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and France’s President Emmanuel Macron discussed defense cooperation between the two countries in a phone call, according to a tweet from the Ukrainian President’s Twitter. They also discussed ways to implement Ukraine’s peace plan, according to the tweet.  CNN

Asia

China Takes Notes from Russian Losses and Gains in Ukraine.  The New York Times is out with a review of nearly 100 Chinese research papers and media reports on the Ukraine war that suggests China is studying the conflict to learn lessons for its own military, especially for a potential invasion of Taiwan.  Highlights of the review include China’s focus on Russia’s use of hypersonic missiles, Ukraine’s use of Starlink satellite links, Moscow’s nuclear rhetoric, and logistics shortcomings in the Russian military.  Experts say China will be looking at Ukraine to see what is most important for its military, which is undergoing a revamp, and how Taiwanese and Western forces may react in a future war.  New York Times

Hong Kong Rejects Report on Freedom Crackdowns. Hong Kong rejected the US State Department’s ‘2023 Hong Kong Policy Act Report’ that criticized Beijing’s crackdown on freedoms in the territory. The report accuses Hong Kong and Chinese officials of using ‘national security’ too broadly and vaguely as a way to subvert the rule of law and violate citizen freedoms. In 2020, China passed a national security law on Hong Kong to crackdown on protracted pro-democracy movements there that started in 2019.  The report also determined that because of this, US interests in Hong Kong have been threatened.  Deutsche Welle Reuters

Pakistani Army Accuses ‘Terrorists’ From Iran of Killing Four Soldiers.  On Saturday, Pakistan’s army said that four of its border patrol soldiers had been killed by a group operating from Iran. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), a separatist group that has previously been involved in attacks on both Pakistani security forces and Chinese interests in the region, claimed responsibility. The same group also recently took responsibility for an attack on Pakistani security forces and communication towers in the Mastung and Panjgur areas. This weekend’s incident took place in southwestern Baluchistan province, which shares a long border with Afghanistan and Iran. The province is rich in natural gas and minerals and also has a deep water port that is being developed as part of Beijing’s “Belt and Road” efforts in Pakistan.  Reuters

Taliban Detains Three British Citizens in Afghanistan. Three British nationals are reportedly being held by the Taliban in Afghanistan; two are believed to have been arrested in mid-January, while the third was arrested on a different date. The UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office is reportedly working to contact the detained British nationals, and they are believed to be in good health. The arrests come amidst an increasing focus by the Taliban on people advocating for the education of Afghan women, as well as Britain’s investigation into alleged extrajudicial killings by British military forces in Afghanistan.  Al Jazeera BBC CNN 

North Korea Says Ukraine Seeking Nuclear Weapons.  Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, said Saturday that Ukraine has ambitions to acquire nuclear weapons.  North Korean state media reports that Kim is basing her accusation on a petition filed to the Ukrainian presidential office calling for Ukraine to host nuclear weapons, in response to reports that Belarus will host Russian tactical nuclear weapons.  The petition has less than 1000 signatures, far below the threshold of 25,000 needed for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to formally address it.  Despite this, Kim asserts that the petition could be a political plot by Zelenskiy to advance Kyiv’s nuclear ambitions, though she did not provide evidence for this claim.  Reuters

Middle East & Northern Africa

Iran Claims to Have Deterred U.S. Navy Aircraft Near Gulf of Oman.  Iran’s navy claims it identified and drove off a U.S. Navy EP-3E reconnaissance plane close to the Gulf of Oman on Sunday.  The Iranian navy’s report on the incident is contradictory, as it asserts that the American aircraft had entered Iranian territory, then later says that the plane never flew into Iranian airspace and vacated after being warned. The U.S. Defense Department did not comment on the alleged incident, which comes amid heightened tensions between Washington and Tehran, especially over Iran’s recent supply of drones to Russia.  Reuters Jerusalem Post

Syrian Foreign Minister Makes First Trip to Egypt in a Decade, Countries Discuss Normalizing Ties. Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad visited Cairo on Saturday in the first official trip by a Syrian foreign minister to Egypt since before the Arab Spring uprisings against Syrian President Bashar al-Asad began in 2011. During his visit, Mekdad met with his counterpart, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, to discuss restoring full diplomatic relations and strengthening cooperation between Syria and Egypt.  The two also reportedly discussed Syria returning to the Arab League, which it was expelled from in 2011. The meeting marks the latest development in Arab States’ willingness to restore ties with Mr. Assad’s government; Mr. Assad has also visited Oman and UAE in recent weeks amidst his efforts to normalize diplomatic relations, and Saudi Arabia is reportedly planning to invite Mr. Assad to an Arab League Summit they are hosting in May.  Reuters Wall Street Journal

Israel Launches Several Air Strikes in Syria.  Israel has launched a series of air strikes in Syria since Friday.  Iranian state media reports the first strike near Damascus on Friday killed two Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps members who were advising Syrian forces.  Iran’s foreign ministry said the two IRGC members had died fighting “terrorism” backed by Israel.  Syria’s Ministry of Defense then reported Israel conducted further air raids in Syria’s Homs province on Sunday, injuring at least five Syrian soldiers.  The Israeli military said it shot down “aircraft” launched from Syria towards Israel shortly after the Homs attacks.  Israel did not directly comment on the reported strikes, though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel is “exacting a heavy price from terrorist-supporting regimes.”  Al Jazeera Associated Press Haaretz Reuters

Oil Prices Soar as OPEC Announces Production Cuts. Oil prices surged nearly six percent on Monday after Saudi Arabia and other major oil producers in OPEC surprised investors and said on Sunday that they will cut production by 1.15 million barrels per day from May through the end of the year. The cuts are expected to boost gas prices, adding further strain in countries where high fuel prices are a heavy burden amidst rising inflation and subsidy cuts. Higher oil prices are also expected to hinder central banks’ efforts to curtail inflation. OPEC Plus, made up of OPEC as well as Russia and some others, produces roughly half of the world’s oil. Before Sunday’s announcement, the group had not been expected to meet until June. Associated Press New York Times

Israel To Form National Guard, Increasing Destabilization Concerns. On Sunday, Israel’s government approved the formation of a national guard, which had been proposed by the far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. The proposal was endorsed last week by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in exchange for Ben-Gvir’s support to postpone the vote over restructuring Israel’s judiciary. According to the decision, Ben-Gvir will now work to establish a committee to outline the national guard’s operations, which will be chaired by the Director General of the National Security Ministry, with participation of representatives from the defense, justice, and finance ministries, as well as the police and IDF. On Sunday, the national guard proposal’s approval drew condemnation from security officials, who also warned that it could further destabilize the country; some officials have previously warned that the force could end up as Ben-Gvir’s own private militia. Haaretz The Washington Post 

Israeli Protests Resume Despite Judicial Overhaul Pause.  Israelis opposed to the proposed judicial reform effort that was postponed last week resumed protests on Saturday. Protesters showed up in more than 100 locations, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and hoisted Israeli and American flags, likely in a nod to U.S. President Biden’s public opposition to the proposed legislation. Organizers claimed that  more than 450,000 Israelis participated in Saturday’s protests, and pledged to continue their efforts until the proposed legislation is scrapped. Several current and former members of Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party have joined the defense minister, Yoav Gallant, who opposed the overhaul over a week ago; the prime minister’s former chief of staff was among the right-wing figures who attended Saturday’s protests. Israeli police clashed with demonstrators at several locations, using water cannons and other tactics to disperse thousands of protesters. Separately, Security officials are on high alert ahead of the convergence of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and the Jewish holiday of Passover next week. The Washington Post Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

Kenyan Opposition Leader Odinga Ready for Talks, Suspends Anti-Government Protests. On Sunday, Kenyan opposition leader and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga said that he was ready for talks after an appeal from President William Ruto and would, for now, suspend anti-government protests, including one scheduled for today. The past two weeks have seen three marches against high living costs and alleged electoral fraud in last year’s presidential elections, all of which have turned violent, resulting in three deaths and injuring more than 400 people, including more than 60 security officers. The opposition is protesting Nairobi’s curtailment of subsidies for fuel, corn, and electricity, as well as pushing for reforms to the electoral commission. Reuters VOA News

Burkina Faso Expels Two French Journalists. Burkina Faso expelled two French journalists working for French newspapers Le Monde and Liberation this weekend in the military’s latest crackdown against French media in the country. Relations between Ouagadougou and Paris have deteriorated significantly since Burkina Faso’s military seized power in a coup last October. The deportation of the two newspaper journalists follows the military’s suspension of broadcasts by television channel France 24 and France’s RFI radio last month, as well as the military’s January order for the French ambassador and French military forces to withdraw from Burkina Faso. Al Jazeera The Guardian

Cyber and Tech

China to Investigate US Chipmaker Micron.  The Cyberspace Administration of China agency announced Friday that it will conduct a review of products sold in China by US chip manufacturer Micron Technology Inc. According to the announcement, the agency will be looking at cyber security risks posed by the company’s products.  The move suggests China will start scrutinizing and possibly restricting U.S. chip companies in China amid escalating tensions over semiconductors between Beijing and Washington.  If China decides to put pressure on Micron, which gets 11 percent of its revenue from China, then other more heavily exposed U.S. chipmakers may be next, including Qualcomm, which gets a staggering 64 percent of its sales from China, as well as Nvidia, AMD, Intel and Broadcom.  Bloomberg Reuters

Chinese Shopping App Malware Takes Privacy Violations 'To Next Level.'  A recent report by cybersecurity analysts and CNN has revealed that the popular Chinese app Pinduoduo has the ability to spy on users due to the presence of malware on the app. Pinduoduo is used by over 750 million users in the country and allows for users to shop for clothes, groceries, etc. According to the researchers from more than a dozen teams in Asia, Europe, and the US, the vulnerability allows the app to bypass user cell phones, giving them the ability to monitor apps, notifications, messages, etc.  CNN

DefenseScoop:  How DARPA’s program seeks ‘new directions’ on the path to trustworthy AI The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has launched a new effort to evaluate and build pathways for trustworthy artificial intelligence and machine learning systems. DARPA has scheduled two upcoming summer workshops, whereby participants will be able to brainstorm those new direction for the purposes of national security. The evaluations include identifying guardrails for AI systems, identifying practicable uses and predictable processes, and building human-AI integrated teams from a variety of backgrounds.  Defensescoop DARPA

Cyber Researchers Say Increasingly Likely Lazarus Group Behind 3CX Attack.  Cybersecurity researchers are finding more evidence that suggests North Korean hacking unit Lazarus Group was behind last week’s 3CX supply chain attack.  New analysis shows the code used in the attack, which compromised installation software from software company 3CX, has a “byte-to-byte” match to malicious code used in past attacks attributed to Lazarus Group.  Investigations and cyber response efforts to the 3CX incident are ongoing.  The Record

Vice Society Ransomware Gang Posts Data from Lewis & Clark College Hack. The cybercrime group The Vice Society took credit for a cyberattack on Lewis & Clark College that occurred earlier this month, by posting passports, social security info W-9 forms, and other important documents that were stolen in the attack. The University experienced several outages on school systems starting March 3 that lasted until March 7. Lewis & Clark University has not commented on whether there was a ransom demanded or paid in the attack, but they did say they are working with external consultants to investigate the attack. The Vice Society group has been linked to several attacks on K-12 schools and universities in the last year.  The Record

SpaceX Rocket Launches Space Development Agency Satellites Into Orbit.  A Falcon 9 rocket from SpaceX launched the U.S. Space Development Agency’s first satellites into low-earth orbit on Sunday.  The rocket carried a mix of 10 satellites – two built by SpaceX and eight built by York Space Systems – that will be used by the SDA to detect and track ballistic and hypersonic missiles and transfer data from space-based sensors back to Earth.  The small satellites are the first of hundreds the SDA plans to launch to support the Pentagon’s larger satellite network.  C4ISRNET

TikTok Top Attorney Says Data Transfer to China “Impossible” Under New Plan.  The top attorney for TikTok and its Chinese parent company ByteDance, general counsel Erich Andersen, told The Associated Press on Saturday that TikTok’s data protection plan will allay U.S. data security fears.  The $1.5 billion proposal, named Project Texas, will store all data of U.S. TikTok users on American servers owned by software giant Oracle and monitored by third party observers.  Andersen said this plan will adequately prohibit the Chinese government from accessing U.S. user data.  He added that a ban on TikTok will be a “defeat” as it would signal an inability to find a compromise on the issue.  Separately, Andersen said ByteDance will continue to develop its new app Lemon8, which resembles Instagram and Pinterest, and is working to have it comply with U.S. law.  Associated Press

U.S. Seeing Increased Activity Across the World from ‘Patriotic Hackers.’  Private citizens and organizations are more profoundly getting in the cyberattack game in the name of helping their home countries. That was the conclusion of a senior defense official, on the condition of anonymity, informing reporters during a Defense Writers Group meeting on Friday. Dubbed “patriotic hackers,” thousands of cyberattacks have been carried out during the Ukraine-Russia war by various groups, a trend made possible by such low barriers to entry in cyberspace. The official noted that evidence of this development is occurring most notably in Ukraine, Russia, and China.  DefenseScoop 

North Korea Possibly Close to Completing New Nuclear Reactor.  North Korea-focused think tank 38 North says that satellite imagery suggests North Korea may be close to finishing a new reactor at its nuclear complex in Yongbon.  The images show crews are working on a support building and water discharges at the complex’s Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) development site, which 38 North says could mean possible testing of the reactor’s cooling system, which would signal that the ELWR “is nearing a transition to operational status.”  The images also indicate continued operation of Yongbon’s existing five-megawatt reactor and expansion of the complex’s uranium enrichment plant.  South China Morning Post

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