Report for Monday, April 15, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Iran launches missile, drone attack on Israel

Ukraine’s military chief warns of ‘significantly’ worsening battlefield situation in the east

Putin told IAEA Russia plans to restart Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

House reauthorizes Section 702

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS – Iran Strikes Back. What Will Israel Do Next?

OPINION – Ukraine’s Rapid Innovation Cycle is Changing the Future of War.

IRAN ATTACKS ISRAEL

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS – Iran Strikes Back. What Will Israel Do Next?

Iran lights up Israel’s night with drones and missiles, but its hits didn’t land.  Saturday night Iran launched 170 drones, more than 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles at Israel, according to Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari. He said that 99% of them were intercepted outside of the country’s airspace by the Israeli Air Force and its allies, including the U.S., U.K., Jordan, France, and others.  He called the outcome “a very significant strategic success.”  The IDF said that the “vast majority” of the ballistic missiles were taken out, many of them outside the atmosphere, by the long-range Arrow air defense system.  The only reported casualty was a 7-year-old girl in a Bedouin Arab town in the Negev desert, who was hurt by shrapnel following an interception.  According to the Times of Israel, the Iranian missiles and drones appeared to be targeting Nevatim, a sensitive air base in southern Israel that is home to the F-35 stealth fighter jet, the military’s most advanced aircraft.  A few ballistic missiles hit the Nevatim base, which sustained minor damage but was operating as usual Sunday morning. Sirens also sounded in the Jerusalem area, the West Bank, and Golan Heights.

Iran made a dramatic and unprecedented statement by aiming for facilities on Israeli soil, but its attack was well short of devastating – deliberately pulling punches, according to Iranian officials.  Iran “decided to create a new equation,” Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said in an interview with Iranian television Sunday. “From now on, if Israel attacks Iranian interests, figures and citizens anywhere, we will retaliate from Iran.” The Washington Post quoted Sima Shine, head of the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, as saying that Iranian leaders knew Israel’s “multi-layer systems would prevent most of the weapons from reaching a target…That outcome made space for Netanyahu and senior leaders to strike a more measured tone than they could if one of the missiles had taken out an apartment building or barracks.”  Wall Street Journal Reuters   Associated Press New York Times Times of Israel Times of Israel Jerusalem Post Washington Post  

Biden advises Netanyahu to ‘slow things down and think through’ response to Iran.  President Joe Biden, watching the missile launches and shoot-downs from the White House Situation Room, spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at about 9 p.m. Saturday, reaching the Israeli leader and his war cabinet in Israel’s war room, according to the Washington Post.  By that time, it was clear the worst danger of the Iranian attack was past.  “I’ve just spoken with Prime Minister Netanyahu to reaffirm America’s ironclad commitment to the security of Israel,” Biden said in a statement released by the White House shortly after the phone call.  “I told him that Israel demonstrated a remarkable capacity to defend against and defeat even unprecedented attacks – sending a clear message to its foes that they cannot effectively threaten the security of Israel.”   White House aides said that Biden told Netanyahu that Israel’s success created “space and flexibility for decisions on next steps.”  The New York Times reported: “Emotions were running high among Israeli officials during phone calls with American partners late into the night, and the pressure to fire back was consequently strong.”  Evidently Biden dissuaded them from responding instantly, counseling the Israelis to “slow things down and think through” their response, according to U.S. officials. Asked on NBC’s “Meet the Press” whether Biden told Netanyahu to “take the win,” John Kirby, spokesman for the National Security Council answered in the affirmative: “I think the president was, again, very clear with Prime Minister Netanyahu about the success that they enjoyed last night and the impact that that success ought to have.”  White House officials said that if Israel launched an offensive attack against Iran, the U.S. would not be part of it.  Washington Post CNN The White House Al Jazeera

UN Security Council holds emergency session, G7 leaders condemn Iran.  Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations issued a joint statement Sunday strongly supporting Israel, condemning Iran’s bombardment and urging an end to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.  Meanwhile, the U.N. Security Council assembled for an emergency session Sunday over the attack.  "Now is the time to defuse and de-escalate," United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said as he addressed the meeting.  "Now is the time for maximum restraint."  He also urged an immediate humanitarian cease-fire in Gaza.  Saeid Iravani, Iran’s ambassador to the UN, said that Tehran has “no intention of engaging in conflict with the US in the region.”  “We demonstrated our commitment to peace by exercising our restraint about involving the U.S. army in intercepting Iranian drones and missiles bound for military targets in the occupied Palestinian territories,” Iravani said.  “This underscores our dedication to de-escalating tensions and avoiding the expansion of conflict.”  However, Iravani warned that “if the U.S. initiates military operations against Iran, its citizens, or its security and interests, Iran will use its inherent right to respond proportionately.”  Reuters Wall Street Journal Bloomberg 

Zelensky says Ukraine needs help while condemning Iran attack on Israel. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday condemned Iran's drone and missile attack on Israel, linking it to the broader threats posed by Russia to global security.  Highlighting the need for a decisive global response, Zelensky emphasized: "Iran's actions threaten the entire region and the world, just as Russia's actions threaten a larger conflict, and the obvious collaboration between the two regimes in spreading terror must face a resolute and united response from the world."  Zelensky called for support similar to that received by Israel, criticizing U.S. House delays in approving $60 billion in U.S. aid by stating: "Ukraine's skies are not protected by rhetoric... There is no more time to be wasted."   At an emergency United Nations Security Council meeting on Sunday, Israel's Permanent Representative Gilad Erdan urged global condemnation of Iran's attack on Israel, echoing Zelensky's words about the threat posed by Iranian drones. Erdan quoted the Ukrainian leader: "’The sound of Iranian Shahed drones, a tool of terror, is the same in the skies over the Middle East and Europe. This sound must serve as a wake-up call to the free world.’ Listen to President Zelensky and wake up.’’   Reuters Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent

Iran says it warned region ahead of Israel attacks. No it didn’t, U.S. says.  Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said Sunday that Iran gave neighboring countries and the United States 72 hours notice it would launch the strikes.  Turkish, Jordanian and Iraqi officials supported Iran’s story.  Turkey's Foreign Ministry said it had spoken to both Washington and Tehran before the attack.  "Iran said the reaction would be a response to Israel’s attack on its embassy in Damascus and that it would not go beyond this.  We were aware of the possibilities. The developments were not a surprise," a Turkish diplomatic source said.  Two Iraqi sources, including a government security adviser and a security official, said Iran had used diplomatic channels to inform Baghdad about the attack at least three days before it happened.  A senior Jordanian official said Iran had summoned Arab envoys in Tehran on Wednesday to inform them of their intention to carry out an attack, though it did not specify the timing.  An Iranian source briefed on the matter said Iran had informed the U.S. through diplomatic channels that included Qatar, Turkey and Switzerland about the scheduled day of the attack, saying it would be conducted in a manner to avoid provoking a response.  A senior U.S. official denied Amirabdollahian's statement, saying that while Washington did have contact with Iran through Swiss intermediaries, Tehran did not give notice 72 hours in advance.  "We received a message from the Iranians as this was ongoing, through the Swiss,” the official said.  “This was basically suggesting that they were finished after this, but it was still an ongoing attack.”  Reuters

Israel got by, with a lot of help from friends.  Iran’s attack was fiercer than anticipated. Israel and its allies beat it anyway, thanks to a combo of Israel’s storied Iron Dome missile defense system and American, British and Jordanian warplanes that took out Iranian drones.  Israel’s missile defense systems shot down munitions launched from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.  U.S. and British warplanes downed some of the Israel-bound drones over the Iraq-Syria border area, Israel's Channel 12 reported.  Jordanian warplanes engaged drones flying over their territory. The Jordanian government said that  drones and missiles “that entered our airspace last night were dealt with and confronted preventively without endangering the safety of our citizens and residential and populated areas.”

U.S. forces, supported by U.S. European Command destroyers, on Saturday and Sunday destroyed more than 80 one-way attack drones and at least six ballistic missiles aimed at Israel from Iran and Yemen, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Monday.  That included a ballistic missile on its launcher vehicle and seven UAVs destroyed on the ground prior to launch in areas controlled by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, CENTCOM said in a post on X.  Some 70 attack drones were downed by F-15E Strike Eagles from the U.S Air Force’s 494th Fighter Squadron, based in the U.K., and 335th Fighter Squadron, located at the Seymour Johnson Air Force Base in North Carolina.  A senior military official said that the USS Carney and USS Arleigh Burke, destroyers deployed to the eastern Mediterranean Sea, shot down between four and six ballistic missiles.  U.S. troops manning the Patriot missile defense system in Irbil, Iraq, took down another missile transiting Iraqi airspace.

The downside of this success is that Israel’s defensive arsenal has been depleted to some extent.  Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the Washington Post, “The concern here is that Israel shot a lot of stuff. And so that speaks to their capacity issues.  You don’t take out 100 ballistic missiles of any type without dipping into capacity. So that’s going to be an issue here for the next steps.”  Wall Street Journal Stars and Stripes Washington Post CNN CNN Reuters Reuters New York Times Al Jazeera

ANALYSIS – Israel won Gaza battles but risks losing war.  Israel’s war in Gaza has sunk into quagmire. Most Israeli troops have gone home. Hamas is returning to cleared areas and is still deeply embedded in the crowded south. Israel has failed to kill or capture Hamas leaders and destroy the group as a military and political force.  Some Israelis, including the military, blame Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s failure to come up with a winning plan.  Wall Street Journal

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine’s military chief warns of ‘significantly’ worsening battlefield situation in the east. Ukraine's military chief, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, warned on Saturday that the battlefield situation in Ukraine’s east has “significantly worsened in recent days.”  Warmer weather has allowed Russian forces to launch a fresh push – including tank assaults – along several stretches of the more 1,000-kilometer-long front line.  Syrysky reported an escalation in Russian military activity in eastern Ukraine, particularly near Lyman, Bakhmut, and Pokrovsk. Analysts from Ukraine’s nongovernmental Deep State group, which tracks frontline developments, reported the Russian takeover of Pervomaiske, some 45 kilometers southeast of Pokrovsk, early on Thursday.  Syrsky also said on Sunday that Russian forces aim to capture the town of Chasiv Yar by May 9, when Russia commemorates victory in World War II.  Located near Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar occupies crucial high ground, making its capture advantageous for further military advance.

As Russia advances in eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian and Western officials are warning that without more air defense and artillery ammunition, Ukrainian front lines could collapse.  Ukrainian ground forces are experiencing heavier fighting, increased Russian bombardments, and Russian superiority in artillery shells, threatening key Ukrainian strongholds in eastern cities such as Kostiantynivka and Kramatorsk. Ukraine also fears that Russia is mobilizing hundreds of thousands of more soldiers for another attempt to take Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, only 20 miles from the Russian border.  The holdup of a $60 billion U.S. aid package in Congress exacerbates the situation.  Associated Press  Reuters Kyiv Independent Washington Post

More civilians die in Ukraine over the weekend. Russian strikes continued to kill and injure Ukrainian civilians over the weekend. In the Sumy region, a drone strike killed a man. In Donetsk, shelling killed a 67-year-old woman. Additional deaths from Russian strikes were reported in Kharkiv, with two elderly civilians killed. Ukrainian forces downed 10 drones in Kharkiv, while Russian-occupied Kherson also saw two civilian deaths from shelling.  Russian troops also hit the city of Dnipro with a cruise missile on Sunday evening, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Governor Serhii Lysak reported. The attack damaged nine residential houses and injured at least 12 people, including a 15-year-old boy, Lysak said.  Meanwhile, a Russia-installed official claimed Sunday that Ukraine's military shelling in Zaporizhzhia region’s Tokmak killed 16 people and injured 20. The account remains unverified, and Ukraine has not commented on the claim.  Associated Press Reuters Reuters Kyiv Independent 

Zelensky says Russia still has access to missile, drone parts.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that Russia continues to have access to key components for missiles and drones, emphasizing that while aid to Ukraine is stalled, Moscow circumvents sanctions for access to military equipment.  "Each missile targeting Ukraine contains at least dozens of components – electronics, chips – supplied by companies from other countries and imported through the territory of Russia's neighbors," Zelensky said.  "All of this must and can be stopped, including the tolerance of terror, the ability of terrorists to seek allies around the world, and Russian terror itself, in all its manifestations.”  Kyiv Independent

Germany will deliver a third Patriot system to Ukraine; Kyiv negotiating for more. Germany will immediately supply its third Patriot air defense system to strengthen Ukraine's defense against Russia, Germany’s Ministry of Defense said on Saturday.  The decision comes after Russian missiles and drones on Thursday struck infrastructure and power stations across Ukraine, leaving hundreds of thousands of homes without power. In an update on X, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he had discussed the massive Russian air attacks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday. He declared that Berlin will “stand unbreakably by Ukraine’s side.” Ukraine also hopes to secure an additional IRIS-T air defense system, as well as missiles for existing air defense systems, Zelensky said during his evening address on Saturday. “Germany's leadership is truly felt, and thanks to this leadership, we will be able to save thousands of lives and give Ukraine more protection from Russian terror,” Zelensky said. Other European capitals, however, have yet to respond to Ukraine's requests for more air defense systems. Zelensky has criticized Western partners for “turning a blind eye” to the Kremlin’s bombardments. Josep Borrell, the European Union’s chief diplomat, said this week it was “inconceivable” that Western countries could not provide seven extra Patriot batteries to Ukraine, given that they have about 100 in their arsenal. Before the German decision to supply another Patriot, Ukraine had at least three Patriots – including two from Germany – and one SAMP/T battery.  Western countries argue they must retain their own systems for security. Bild Financial Times Associated Press Kyiv Independent.

Russia keeps single warship on combat duty off Crimea coast.  The Ukrainian Naval Forces report that Russia only has one warship deployed in the Black Sea, off the coast of occupied Crimea.  The Ukrainian Navy said there are no Russian ships in the Sea of Azov, and two Russian Navy vessels equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles in the Mediterranean Sea.  Meanwhile, two Ukrainian minesweepers arrived in the U.K. for joint exercises.  Ukrinform

Putin told IAEA Russia plans to restart Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has informed the International Atomic Energy Agency of plans to restart the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, currently under Russian control. This decision escalates risks at Europe's largest nuclear station, located on the frontline and occupied by Russian forces. The 6-gigawatt plant has recently suffered drone attacks and operational disruptions. The last of the plant’s reactors was shut down in September 2022 due to safety risks. All six reactors are in a state of cold shutdown for the first time since October 2022, the IAEA reported on Saturday, a move that Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said "enhances the overall safety” of the plant. Russia aims to reactivate at least one reactor, potentially to mark the plant’s 40th anniversary. This move is part of a broader strategy to consolidate Moscow's control over captured Ukrainian infrastructure and assert dominance despite technical and logistical hurdles. “Never before in the history of the tightly regulated nuclear industry has a hostile power captured and operated another country’s active power plant,” the Wall Street Journal writes. “The Zaporizhzhia station, among the last of the Soviet Union’s megaprojects, was a centerpiece of the empire’s prized nuclear technology.” Wall Street Journal Kyiv Independent 

War in Ukraine puts energy in the crosshairs. The war between Russia and Ukraine, stagnant on the battlefield for over 16 months, has entered a phase where both sides are targeting energy infrastructure in each other’s countries, affecting global markets.  This strategy aims to weaken the opponent economically and psychologically.  The International Energy Agency highlighted the risk of disrupted petroleum product trade due to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. In response to Ukraine's strategy, Russia has escalated its assaults on Ukrainian gas and power plants, which resulted in a 10% surge in European gas prices.  The attacks on energy assets are reminiscent of the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, when economic and civilian targets became focal points.  Bloomberg

The Cipher Brief spoke with German Galushchenko, Ukraine’s Minister of Energy, at its second Kyiv Economic and Security Forum to discuss what’s at stake at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and the impact of Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.  Read Ukraine’s Energy Minister: We Are Moving Towards a Nuclear Accident at The Cipher Brief.  No time to read? Watch the discussion on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel.

A GOP congressman’s case for helping Ukraine.  The Washington Post interviewed Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.), who recently returned from a trip to Ukraine, Moldova, and Poland with Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and Reps. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), Mike Quigley (D-Ill.) and Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.). The lawmakers met with President Volodymyr Zelensky and Bridget Brink, the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. In the interview, Edwards called for quick passage of the $60 billion aid package for Ukraine, which has been stalled in the U.S. House for months. “My message is that the world is watching, and America has the opportunity at this moment to define how much we believe in a democratic society,” Edwards said. He urged House Speaker Mike Johnson to prioritize a standalone aid bill, even if it risks his speakership. “They’re running out of ammunition,” Edwards said of the dire situation facing Ukrainian forces. “They have brigades that have no equipment.’’ He also called for fiscal responsibility in aiding Ukraine, either through a lend-lease program or by seizing Russian assets. Washington Post

ISW: Russia deploying new Kh-69 cruise missile in escalating attacks on Ukraine. The Russian military is using a new subsonic cruise missile, the Kh-69, to target Ukraine's energy infrastructure and exploit gaps in air defense, exacerbated by delays in Western aid.  The Kh-69, launched from a tactical aircraft, has an extended range of 400 kilometers. The Ukrainian military is investigating these missiles.  Effective countermeasures like the Patriot air defense systems are deemed crucial for Ukraine's defense against these escalating attacks. Kyiv Independent Institute for the Study of War

ANALYSIS — Drones are crowding Ukraine’s skies, largely paralyzing battlefield.  The use of drones in Russia’s war on Ukraine has dramatically transformed modern warfare, creating a hyper-visible battlefield where movement is nearly impossible without detection. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces are now heavily reliant on these small, relatively cheap drones which have become crucial in tactical operations. These drones not only provide an advantage by allowing safe reconnaissance and targeted strikes but also contribute to a stagnated frontline where neither side can advance due to the constant surveillance and threat from overhead. The surge in drone technology has turned "the gray zone" into a lethal "death zone," according to Oleksandr Nastenko, commander of a Ukrainian drone unit.  Washington Post

OPINION – Ukraine’s Rapid Innovation Cycle is Changing the Future of War.

The Americas

House plans Israel aid vote and may add on Ukraine, Johnson says. U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson plans a vote this week on an aid package for Israel, following Iran’s massive attacks on Saturday, and possibly a vote on aid for Ukraine. This decision comes amid internal political pressures and discussions about using alternative funding methods, like Russian assets, to help finance the stalled $60 billion in aid for Ukraine. Johnson faces challenges from within his party, including calls to tie Ukraine aid to stricter U.S. border policies. Johnson has been working to put together an alternative to the Senate-passed $95 billion package that has funds for Israel, Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has threatened Johnson’s speakership if he moves on Ukraine aid. Bloomberg New York Times Politico 

House reauthorizes key US surveillance program after days of upheaval over changes. The U.S. House of Representatives voted 273-147 on Friday to reauthorize and reform Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, extending its operation for two years instead of the full five-year authorization that was first proposed. The shortened timeline represents a compromise to balance national security needs with civil liberties.  The bill, which must still pass the Senate, faced opposition over concerns about warrantless searches of Americans' data. An amendment prohibiting warrantless surveillance of Americans nearly passed, failing on a tied 212-212 vote, reflecting deep bipartisan concerns over privacy and government overreach. Section 702 allows the U.S. government to spy on foreigners without getting court approval but also inadvertently collects the communications of U.S. citizens.  Associated Press The Record CyberScoop

U.S. Navy’s new warship facing delays due to worker turnover.  Fincantieri Marinette Marine, the shipyard responsible for producing the U.S. Navy's new frigate, has been struggling to “achieve engineering and skilled workforce levels” for the medium-sized vessel, resulting in a project delay of up to three years, according to an unreleased Navy briefing slide. The shipyard is experiencing “unprecedented poor workforce retention” with high attrition rates and will require more than 1,600 skilled workers next year, up from the current 900, to meet the project's demands.  Bloomberg 

Air Force to get F-15E jet with fresh electronic warfare tech in summer. The U.S. Air Force is set to receive its first operational F-15E Strike Eagle upgraded with the advanced Eagle Passive Active Warning Survivability System (EPAWSS) electronic warfare system this summer.  EPAWSS, developed by BAE Systems, will also come standard on F-15EX Eagle II fighters and will allow F-15s to monitor, jam, and deceive threats in highly contested environments.  The system also includes radar warning, geolocation, situational awareness, and self-defense capabilities. The delivery of the first EPAWSS-upgraded F-15Es marks a significant milestone in the Air Force's efforts to modernize these fourth-generation aircraft.  Defense News

Space Development Agency satellites poised to track first missile test.  The U.S. Space Development Agency anticipates its constellation of missile detection satellites will track its first missile launch in the coming weeks. The eight spacecraft, known as the Tranche 0 Tracking Layer, were built by SpaceX and L3Harris Technologies and launched in three batches over the last year. The satellites will be able to observe and collect information on missile launches, which requires them to be positioned over the area where the test is taking place, typically at Vandenberg Space Force Base or another Department of Defense site. SDA Director Derek Tournear said that the first tracking satellites have been collecting and transmitting data, but their position has not yet aligned with the timing of a missile launch.  Defense News

SPY-7 radar tracks live space objects ahead of delivery to Japan. The U.S., Japan, and Lockheed Martin have successfully conducted the first live tracking demonstration of the AN/SPY-7(V)1 solid-state radar integrated with the Aegis Weapon System. The test marked the first time the radar and combat system pairing detected and tracked an object in space, then passed the data along for further processing. This test was the first in a series of land-based tests for the SPY-7 before its installation on Japan's first Aegis System Equipped Vessel, with the next test involving all four radar faces to ensure full system integration. Japan plans to commission two Aegis System Equipped Vessels in March 2028 and March 2029, providing the nation with an integrated air and missile defense capability for regional missile defense.  Defense News

Australia asks U.S. Justice Department to reach plea deal with Assange.  Australia has requested the U.S. Justice Department to negotiate a felony plea deal with WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese emphasized the need to conclude this longstanding case; lawmakers there have voted to allow Assange to return to his home country. The U.S. is considering the request, with discussions about possible plea deals ranging from felony to misdemeanor charges related to espionage and mishandling classified information. Assange has been imprisoned for the last five years in the United Kingdom, where he is fighting extradition to the U.S.  WikiLeaks published tens of thousands of confidential U.S. military records and diplomatic cables starting in 2010, sparking a yearslong inquiry. Wall Street Journal 

Asia and Oceania

Scholz arrives in China on a mission to dial down tensions.  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrived in Chongqing, China on Sunday to deliver a delicate message: Beijing must address discriminatory business practices or face escalating tensions with Europe. Scholz will warn Chinese President Xi Jinping that failure to act soon could result in E.U. tariffs aimed at rebalancing the trade relationship, particularly in the electric vehicle sector. Scholz's visit, which includes stops in Shanghai and Beijing, is the first by a state leader of a major Western country to China this year.  Scholz will meet with both President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang.  Bloomberg Reuters Associated Press

State Dept. Is Sending Its Top Diplomat for East Asia to China. The U.S. State Department announced that Daniel J. Kritenbrink, The Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs is visiting China starting Sunday. Kritenbrink will be accompanied by Sarah Beran, President Biden's top China adviser on the National Security Council.  Their visit, which will last until Tuesday, will include meetings with officials aimed at maintaining open communication channels while managing diplomatic relations.  New York Times

Chinese coastguard blocks Philippine vessel. In a Saturday incident in the South China Sea, a Chinese coastguard vessel blocked two Philippine government ships, escalating maritime tensions between China and the Philippines. This event occurred only 35 nautical miles off the Philippines' coast and followed significant diplomatic moves by the U.S. to strengthen its regional alliance to counter Beijing’s assertiveness.  The blockade lasted over eight hours and is seen as a response to last Thursday’s first-ever US-Japan-Philippines summit, where concerns over China's actions in the region were highlighted.  Neither country has officially commented on the incident.  Financial Times

Yellen says all options on table to respond to China overcapacity.  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the U.S. is open to all options, including additional tariffs, in response to China's manufacturing capacity and alleged unfair economic practices.  During her recent visit to China, Yellen criticized the country for mistreating U.S. and foreign companies and distorting global markets through subsidized overproduction in certain sectors.  When asked if additional U.S. tariffs could be a possibility, Yellen told CNN that she “wouldn't take anything off the table as a potential response.”  Bloomberg 

Sydney stabbing attack kills six.  A man fatally stabbed six people at the Westfield Bondi Junction mall in Sydney on Saturday.  The assailant was killed at the scene of the rampage.  Australian police say the attacker had mental health issues and that there was no indication that ideology was a motive in the attack.  A separate stabbing happened at a church in a Sydney suburb on Monday, marking the second mass stabbing in the city in just three days.  Reuters Reuters New York Times BBC Al Jazeera 

Myanmar rebels say they have repelled junta push to take back border town.The Karen National Union (KNU) has repelled the Myanmar junta's recent military efforts to recapture the border town of Myawaddy, according to KNU spokesperson Padoh Saw Taw Nee. The town, which is strategically located along the Thai border, was taken over by anti-junta forces last week. Despite several attempts to retake it, junta forces were pushed back approximately 40 kilometers away. The conflict is part of broader resistance against the military, which seized power in 2021, leading to widespread unrest and coordination among various ethnic rebel groups to oppose the regime. The KNU also emphasized the ongoing humanitarian crisis, highlighting the need for international support for over a million displaced people in their controlled areas.  Reuters 

China says Hong Kong must 'tightly hold' national security line to safeguard development. China's top official on Hong Kong affairs, Xia Baolong, emphasized the necessity of stringent national security measures to ensure the city's prosperity, coinciding with the recent enactment of a comprehensive new security law.  Hong Kong in March enacted a new national security law, also known as article 23, that updates or introduces new laws to prohibit treason, sabotage, sedition, the theft of state secrets, and espionage, with jail terms of up to life imprisonment. Despite facing criticism from Western nations over human rights concerns, Xia assured that the law protects the rights and investments of both local and foreign stakeholders, promoting Hong Kong as an ideal business destination.  This stance comes amid international concerns about the arbitrary enforcement of these laws, which have already led to the repression of political opposition and civil liberties in Hong Kong.  Reuters

Europe

Russian oil and products trapped on tankers hit by new Iran-related sanctions.  Russian oil and its products are stuck at sea on four tankers sanctioned by the U.S. due to Iran-related restrictions.  The U.S. imposed sanctions on Oceanlink Maritime DMCC and its vessels for transporting commodities for the Iranian military. The sanctioned vessels include three fuel tankers and a crude oil tanker, with one, Anthea, holding 200,000 metric tons of Russian crude in the Suez Canal. This situation has made these ships undesirable for ports and other shippers, tightening the already limited availability for Russian oil transport.  These actions reflect increased cooperation between Moscow and Tehran in response to heightened Western sanctions.  Reuters

Russia and China trade new copper disguised as scrap to skirt taxes, sanctions.  ​​Russian Copper Company (RCC) and Chinese firms are reportedly trading newly produced cooper wire rod disguised as scrap metal in an attempt to avoid taxes and evade Western sanctions.  The alleged practice has led to discrepancies in trade data.  Despite minimal scrap exports recorded in Russian data, Chinese imports of copper scrap from Russia have surged, suggesting that much of the imported "scrap" may actually be copper wire rod.  Most of the copper scrap is documented to enter via Xinjiang, where it is allegedly shredded by an intermediary to resemble scrap.  Reuters

China has helped Russia boost arms production, US says.  China has helped revive Russia's military production to bolster the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine, senior Biden administration officials said Friday. China “is actually taking a systematic effort to support Russia’s war effort,” one senior official said, describing  Beijing’s supply of crucial technology and equipment to Moscow. In the last quarter of 2023, over 70% of Russia’s machine tools imports, valued at nearly $900 million, came from China. These imports are likely being used to produce ballistic missiles. Furthermore, in 2023, China was the source of 90% of Russia's microelectronics imports, essential for manufacturing military hardware like missiles, tanks, and aircraft. Chinese and Russian entities have also jointly worked to produce unmanned aerial vehicles inside Russia. Chinese companies are also likely providing Russia with nitrocellulose used to manufacture ammunition.  Beijing’s backing comes despite U.S. warnings against supplying lethal weaponry. President Joe Biden has raised concerns over Russia-China military ties with Chinese President Xi Jinping, including in a phone call on April 2. The Chinese Embassy in the U.S. said it has not provided weaponry to any party, adding that it is "not a producer of or party involved in the Ukraine crisis." Wall Street Journal  Associated Press Reuters 

Belgium declares war on MEPs who took Russian cash.  Belgium's Prime Minister Alexander De Croo on Friday announced a judicial inquiry into allegations that some members of the European Parliament (MEPs) accepted Russian money to promote Russian propaganda, based on evidence collected by Belgian spies with support from Czech and Polish intelligence.  "Belgian intelligence services have confirmed the existence of a pro-Russian interference network with activities in several European countries and in Belgium," De Croo said.  The scandal, known as Russiagate, involves accusations that MEPs received payments through pro-Russian media, influencing their political stance on Ukraine. “Weakened European support for Ukraine serves Russia on the battlefield,” De Croo told reporters. “We cannot allow this type of Russian menace in our midst.” The revelations have prompted calls for transparency and accountability as EU elections approach.  Last month, the Czech government said it had uncovered an influence network run by Russia on Czech territory using a news site called Voice of Europe. The Czech Republic sanctioned Voice of Europe, as well as pro-Russian Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk and his associate Artem Marchevskiy. Bloomberg Wall Street Journal EUobserver

U.S. trying to cripple Russia’s vast Arctic LNG project.  Liquefied natural gas (LNG) has become a crucial energy source and a point of contention between Russia and the U.S., with Russia building a massive coastal facility in its Arctic north to produce LNG, a key project for Russian President Vladimir Putin. The U.S. is using sanctions to try and cripple the Arctic LNG 2 project, by preventing Russia from receiving specialized tankers needed to transport the gas and making it difficult for them to build alternative vessels domestically.  An official said the effort aims to ensure the project will be “dead in the water.”  Putin aims to more than triple Russia's LNG exports in the coming years to fund his war on Ukraine and offset declining pipeline gas exports.  Globally, LNG demand is growing.  Supply is also surging, with major players like Qatar planning significant expansions. The U.S. became the largest LNG exporter last year, but President Joe Biden’s administration's pause on approving new LNG exports due to environmental concerns has angered business groups and allies, potentially hindering efforts to limit Russia's natural gas profits. House Speaker Mike Johnson is pushing to reverse the U.S. export pause, possibly tying it to a vote on Ukraine aid.  Wall Street Journal 

Middle East

Biden to host Iraqi leader who wants to shrink  US troop presence.   President Joe Biden is set to host Iraqi Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani this week.  Top of mind is the American military presence in Iraq, Iraq’s Iran-backed militias and the country’s security.  Iran’s Saturday drone and missile attack on Israel flew or were launched from Iraq. A U.S. Patriot battery in Irbil, Iraq, knocked down at least one Iranian ballistic missile, according to American officials.  Associated Press

Iranian navy seizes Israel-linked container ship in Strait of Hormuz.  Iran's Revolutionary Guard seized an Israeli-linked container ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The Portugal-flagged ship, MSC Aries, is managed by Zodiac Maritime and is reportedly linked to Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer.  The Mediterranean Shipping Company confirmed the seizure. The crew consists of 25 members. The Strait of Hormuz, at the northern end of the Gulf of Oman, is the biggest oil chokepoint in the world. About 20% of the world’s daily consumption of oil passes through it every day.  CNN

Africa

Protesters in Niger call for US military exit as Russian force arrives. Thousands of protesters gathered on Saturday in Niamey, the capital of Niger, to demand the exit of 1,000 U.S. military personnel from the Connery.  U.S.-Niger relations soured after a July coup by Niger's military, halting U.S. drone operations meant to monitor regional extremists.  Despite the public protest, U.S. officials say that Niger is keen on revising, not ending, the security partnership.  The demonstration reflects a broader shift in West Africa, where countries are cutting Western ties and turning to Russia for support in combating insurgencies.  New York Times  Al Jazeera

One year of Sudan’s war.  Sudan's ongoing civil war, which began on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese army, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), began over disagreements about the political transition planned after the overthrow of autocratic leader Omar al-Bashir.  The violence rapidly spread from Khartoum to Darfur and other regions, displacing over 8.5 million people, making it the world's largest displacement crisis.  The war has severely damaged Sudan's infrastructure and healthcare, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.  Many Sudanese refugees have fled to neighboring countries like Egypt, where they face economic hardships and trauma from their experiences.  Despite the risks, some have returned to Sudan due to the dire conditions abroad.  France, Germany, and the E.U. marked the one-year anniversary of the start of the war with a funding push at an aid conference in Paris.  Reuters Reuters Associated Press Bloomberg

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Palo Alto finds zero day in VPN. Cybersecurity company Palo Alto Networks is notifying its clients about a critical zero-day flaw in its widely used GlobalProtect VPN solution, which malicious actors are currently targeting. The vulnerability has been assigned the maximum severity rating of 10, and the company has confirmed that a small number of attacks have been observed exploiting this bug. A team of experts from Volexity, another prominent cybersecurity firm, initially identified the issue. According to Steven Adair, the company's president, the first attacks were detected just 48 hours before the public disclosure. Due to the severity of the vulnerability, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) swiftly added the VPN flaw to its catalog of known exploited vulnerabilities, emphasizing the urgency for federal agencies to address the issue. In an uncommon action, CISA has granted federal civilian agencies a mere seven days to implement necessary mitigations, a significantly shorter timeframe compared to the standard 21-day period typically allotted for most vulnerabilities.  The Record

South Korea to host second AI Safety Summit on May 21-22.  South Korea will host the second global AI safety summit on May 21st-22md. The summit follows the inaugural event held in Britain at Bletchley Park six months ago.  Government officials announced that the summit aims to build on the “Bletchley Declaration,” an agreement between countries to cooperate on responsible and ethical use of AI.  The U.S. and China are among the countries that have signed the Bletchley Declaration.  Reuters

OpenAI's Altman pitches ChatGPT Enterprise to large firms, including some Microsoft customers. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and COO Brad Lightcap have been hosting events for Fortune 500 company executives in San Francisco, New York, and London this month to pitch OpenAI's AI services for corporate use, including ChatGPT Enterprise, software to connect customer applications to its AI services, and new text-to-video models. The OpenAI executives are directly competing with Microsoft, one of the company's financial backers, in offering these AI services to corporate clients.  Reuters

U.S. sanctions Hamas cyber influence leader.  The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Hamas official Hudhayfa Samir Abdallah al-Kahlut, also known as "Abu Ubaida."  He is believed to lead the cyber influence department of Hamas' military wing, al-Qassam Brigades. in Gaza.  Al-Kahlut has allegedly been involved in procuring servers and domains in Iran to host the official al-Qassam Brigades website, according to U.S. officials.  He has served as a public spokesperson for the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades since at least 2007 and has been linked to threats against civilian hostages.  The sanctions aim to disrupt Hamas' cyberwarfare capabilities and production of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).  Additionally, the Treasury Department sanctioned two other officials allegedly involved in weapon production.  The Record 

Report Info

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Ken Hughes, Brian Bonner, Katharine Campbell, and Leighton Durham contributed to this report.

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