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Monday, April 10, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas 

U.S. Investigating Major Leak of Classified Intelligence. Classified documents released on social media sites such as Twitter, Discord, and Telegram are the most serious breach of classified material in decades, according to senior U.S. officials. The Pentagon and Justice Department are investigating the leaked files, which in addition to disclosing classified assessments on Ukraine, also appear to include intelligence on internal issues in a variety of countries including U.S. allies such as Israel, South Korea, and the UK. Most media outlets have been unable to independently authenticate the documents, which reportedly contain about 100 pages, but the details included are bolstering the documents’ credibility. U.S. officials have said that the documents appear to be legitimate operational and intelligence briefs compiled by the Pentagon’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, which regularly leverage information from the U.S. Intelligence Community. However, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Sunday that they have not ruled out that the documents were altered to mislead investigators or disseminate false information. The FBI launched a formal inquiry on Friday to try and determine the source of the leak. However, if the leak was indeed a Joint Staff briefing, tracking down the source of the leak will almost certainly be difficult, as those briefings are routinely disseminated to hundreds if not thousands of military and other U.S. government officials. Some Congressional members stated over the weekend that they expect Biden administration officials to brief lawmakers on the leaks when Congress returns to session this week.  New York Times Reuters Wall Street Journal Washington Post

Honduras Extends Powers to Combat Gang Violence. On Friday, Honduras’ government extended emergency powers that suspend some constitutional rights as part of the continued anti-gang push implemented by President Xiomara Castro in the country’s largest cities. Last week, Castro’s government also deployed soldiers across the country to fight violent criminal groups. The latest extension is the third one implemented by the government and extends the emergency powers until late May. The policy applies to 123 local districts which include the largest population centers and permits authorities to restrict freedom of movement and assembly, search homes, and make arrests without a warrant. In her 2021 presidential campaign, Castro criticized the role of the military in past administrations and pledged to “demilitarize citizen security”.  Reuters

Western Europe

Germany Advises Against Travel to Russia Over US Detention of US Journalist.  Germany’s foreign ministry has advised German citizens against traveling to Russia after the March 29th arrest and imprisonment of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. The statement, given last week, is important considering the large number of Germans with dual German-Russian citizenship and the significant business relationship that the two nations share. In a briefing last Monday, government authorities informed the media about the dangers of reporting in Russia, and the United States has also suggested that all Americans in Russia leave the country rather than risk persecution or detainment under arbitrary censorship laws.  Wall Street Journal

Macron: EU Should Make Independent Decision on Taiwan. In comments published on Sunday, which followed a trip to China, French President Emmanuel Macron said that Europe had no interest in an acceleration of the crisis over Taiwan and should operate independently from both Washington and Beijing. Macron said Europe should take the opportunity to build its position as a “third pole” between China and the U.S. French Newspaper Les Echos and Politico both quoted Macron as saying that Europe must “better fund its defense industry, develop nuclear and renewable energy, and reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar to limit reliance on the United States”. Deutsche Welle Reuters South China Morning Post 

Marseille Explosion Kills Four.  An explosion in the southern French city of Marseille destroyed a building on Monday, killing four people.  Authorities are still conducting search and rescue efforts.  It is currently unclear what caused the blast.  Associated Press  

Central and Eastern Europe

Ukraine Claims Russia Using “Scorched Earth” Strategies in Bakhmut. Ukrainian Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi claimed on Monday that Russian soldiers have begun a “scorched earth” strategy in Bakhmut, similar to Russian tactics in Syria, and are launching airstrikes and leveling the city with artillery.  Syrskyi also said that Russian troops have brought in airborne and special forces units to aid the assault.  Despite the challenges from the new attacks, Syrskyi asserted that the current circumstances are “controllable.” The battle for Bakhmut has raged for months; Ukraine has said its defense of the city is enabling reconstitution of its forces for a spring offensive against Russia, and that Russia is incurring huge losses in its effort to seize control. However, Russian forces have gained ground in recent weeks, threatening supply lines and making advances inside the city.  Reuters Kyiv Post

Russian Strikes Across Ukraine Kills Civilians.  Ukrainian officials report that Russian air strikes across Ukraine killed at least four people over the weekend.  Rocket fire on the northeastern city of Kupiansk, which was liberated by Ukrainian forces after it was seized by Russian troops, killed two men on Sunday.  Local officials say that two missiles struck near the southern city of Zaporizhzhia on the same day and partially destroyed a residential building, killing a father and her daughter.  Zaporizhzia regional officials said Russian strikes hit 18 settlements in the region.  Russia’s defense ministry later claimed it destroyed a fuel depot in Zaporizhzhia and Ukrainian military warehouses in the Donetsk and Zaprozhzhia regions with air strikes.  Associated Press Reuters

Ukrainian Children Illegally Deported to Russia Returned to Kyiv.  A group of 31 Ukrainian children forcibly taken to Russian-occupied territories have been reunited with their families in Kyiv.  The NGO Save Ukraine coordinated the reunions; the organization said a group of 13 mothers, who were given power of attorney to collect other parents’ children and their own, traveled to Russia and Russian-occupied Crimea to collect the children in recent days.  Moscow denies allegations of forced deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia, saying that it is transferring Ukrainian children out of conflict zones to ensure their safety.  Associated Press CNN Kyiv Independent

Estonian Foreign Minister Backs Ukraine NATO Membership. In an exclusive interview with the Kyiv Independent last week, Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu called for allies to do more to support Ukraine and argued that the only way to achieve full security for all of Europe was for Ukraine to join NATO. Reinsalu also said that allies should not pressure Ukraine into accepting a compromise with Russia even if it is unable to meet the West’s timelines for liberating its territory from Russian forces. Reinsalu said that Estonia was prepared to arrest Russian President Putin if he entered its territory, as obliged by the Rome Statute and in compliance with the ICC’s decision to issue an arrest warrant against the Russian leader. However, he reiterated that the arrest warrant is only the first step in holding the Kremlin accountable for its actions in Ukraine. Kyiv Independent

Asia

China Conducts Live-Fire, Precision Military Drills Around Taiwan.  China concluded three days of large-scale military exercises, dubbed the “Joint Sword” exercises, around Taiwan on Monday, declaring that its forces are “ready to fight… to resolutely smash any form of ‘Taiwan independence’ and foreign interference attempts.”  Taiwan’s defense ministry reported that, as part of the drills, 71 Chinese warplanes flew near Taiwan over the weekend, with 45 of them crossing the unofficial median line of the Taiwan Strait, followed by another 59 Chinese bombers and fighter jets flying near Taiwan on Monday morning, 39 of which crossed the median line.  Chinese state media said these air exercises simulated “the joint sealing off” of Taiwan as well as attacks on the island.  The Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong also participated in the drills for the first time, suggesting that it could be used to prevent foreign forces from reaching Taiwan during a Chinese attack on the island.  The drills came as an apparent retaliatory response to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s visit to the Americas last week, which included “transit” stops in the U.S. and concluded with a meeting with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California.  Al Jazeera Associated Press Deutsche Welle Japan Times Reuters Wall Street Journal 

Chinese Military Says Taiwan Cannot Depend on U.S. ‘Security Guarantee.’  Amid the Chinese military drills around Taiwan, the Chinese military’s official newspaper, the PLA Daily, released an article on Monday saying that Taiwan cannot rely on the U.S. for protection.  The article claims that the U.S. is using Taiwan as a pawn, selling arms to the island and supporting its military to make Taiwan into a “porcupine” – a military target too costly to attack – and frontier “ammunition depot” that Washington can use to contain China.  South China Morning Post

US Sends Warship Near Chinese-Controlled Isle in South China Sea. Earlier today, a U.S. Navy destroyer sailed near Mischief Reef in the Spratly islands, in a freedom of navigation mission that Beijing has since claimed is illegal. The area is one of the most important Chinese-controlled man-made islands in the South China Sea, and contains a Chinese-built airport and other facilities. The U.S. does not recognize China’s claim to the area despite the installations and structures built there. The voyage took place as Beijing staged war games around Taiwan in response to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s meetings with U.S. officials last week. Reuters

Japan, China Meet to Discuss Maritime Issues.  Senior Japanese and Chinese officials met on Monday to discuss maritime issues in the East China Sea.  The meeting is part of regular talks that began in 2012 and came as China concluded war games around Taiwan.  China’s foreign ministry said the dialogue would focus on exploring areas for maritime cooperation, as well as getting a military hotline established between Beijing and Tokyo last month up and running.  The talks will also likely cover the two countries’ disputing claims over the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands, which China calls the Diaoyu Islands, as well as Japan’s plan to release treated radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the ocean.  Japan Times Reuters

Pyongyang Conducts Underwater Nuclear Drone Tests.  North Korea claims it concluded a four-day test of its second version of a nuclear-capable underwater drone on Saturday.  North Korean state media said the new drone, named Haeil-2, cruised for around 71 hours and that it successfully hit a simulated target.  The alleged test of the new drone came days after North Korea said it developed its first underwater drone called Haeil-1, which it said could trigger “radioactive tsunamis.”  Observers are skeptical that the drones are ready for deployment, but Pyongyang maintains the drones will help deter military action against North Korea. Associated Press NBC News Reuters 

North Korea Unresponsive to Liaison Calls With South Korea.  South Korea’s Unification Ministry said Monday that North Korea has not responded to regular calls through an inter-Korean liaison phone for a fourth straight day.  The ministry said Pyongyang may have unilaterally cut off the communication link and that this is the first time North Korea has shut communications through all inter-Korean hotlines since October 2021.  Experts say this freeze in communications is likely in protest to recent joint military exercises between the U.S. and South Korea.  Bloomberg

Bombing Targets Police Vehicle in Balochistan, Killing Several.  At least four people were killed and six injured in a bombing targeting a police vehicle in the southwestern city of Quetta earlier this morning.  Police officials say the attack targeted the vehicle of the acting superintendent of police investigations.  Authorities are investigating the attack.  Al Jazeera

Middle East and Northern Africa

Saudi Coalition, Yemen’s Houthis Hold Ceasefire Talks. Saudi and Omani representatives held talks with Houthi officials in Yemen’s capital Sanaa yesterday, as Riyadh seeks a permanent ceasefire and an end to its involvement in Yemen’s civil war. The visit is the latest development in the Oman-mediated consultations between Riyadh and Sanaa, which gained momentum following the restoration of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran last month. Both sides seek to negotiate a cessation of hostilities and the lifting of a Saudi-led blockade on Yemen ports. The latest talks are reportedly focused on a full reopening of the Houthi-controlled ports and the Sanaa airport, rebuilding efforts, payment of wages for public servants, and a timeline for foreign forces to leave the country.  BBC Reuters 

West Bank, Tel Aviv Attacks Kill Three.  A gunman opened fire on a car in the occupied West Bank on Friday, killing two British-Israeli sisters and injuring their mother.   Hours after the West Bank shooting, an apparent car-ramming attack in Tel Aviv killed one Italian tourist and injured seven other people.  Israeli police at the scene killed the driver of the vehicle used in the attack when it looked like he was reaching for a “rifle-like object” in his car.  The attacks took place hours after Israel launched air strikes in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.  The Israeli military said the strikes were in retaliation to rocket attacks on Israel launched from Lebanon, which Israel blamed on the Palestinian militant group Hamas.   Al Jazeera BBC CNN

Settlers March in Israel, Increasing Tensions with Palestinians. Thousands of Israeli settlers are marching today to call on the Israeli government to legalize the outpost of Evyatar, near the occupied West Bank city of Nablus, and to “denounce the increased attacks on settlements in recent weeks”. The march will be attended by at least 27 cabinet ministers, including Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Knesset members. The Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs considers the march “a dangerous escalation and provocation of the Palestinian people…[which] has dangerous repercussions on the situation”. Separately, tensions at the al-Aqsa mosque continued to escalate as settlers stormed the courtyards of the compound under the protection of Israeli forces earlier today. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant deployed security reinforcements in Tel Aviv, following a security assessment by the Israeli army.  Al Jazeera

Israeli Government Rejects Pentagon Claim that Mossad Backed Recent Protests.  The Israeli government rejected claims made in a leaked Pentagon paper that suggests that Mossad supported and encouraged nationwide protests against judicial reform proposals. The claim was made in a CIA assessment included in the recent leak of U.S. intelligence documents.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a statement accusing the report of being false and “without any foundation whatsoever.”  Al Jazeera Reuters

Israel Signs Deal to Sell Anti-Tank Missiles to Greece. Israel’s Defense Ministry announced on Monday a $400 million deal to sell anti-tank Spike missiles produced by Israeli defense contractor Rafael to Greece. According to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, this is part of several joint agreements between the two countries as the two work to strengthen their partnership.  Reuters

Israeli Jets Hit Syrian Military Targets, Responding to Rocket Attacks. On Sunday, Israeli jets hit Syrian military targets in response to rockets that had been launched towards the Israel-controlled Golan Heights, as violence flared again following several previous exchanges of fire last week along the Israel-Lebanon, Israel-Gaza, and Israel-Syrian borders. Syrian state media reported explosions near the capital city of Damascus, and the Israeli military said its artillery and drone strikes hit the rocket launchers and were followed by airstrikes against artillery posts, military radar systems, and a Syrian army compound. The Syrian defense ministry said damage was only material, and reported no casualties.  Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

Islamic State Linked Attack in Congo Kills 20.  Around 20 people were killed in an attack in the Democratic Republic of the Congo on Friday in the North Kivu region. The region is one of two under military administration as part of an attempt to curb violence in the country. Congo officials have accused the Allied Democratic Forces, an Islamic State affiliate group, of being behind the attack. Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack.  Deutsche Welle France 24 Reuters

Suspected Terrorist Attack Kills Dozens in Burkina Faso. At least 44 people were killed Friday morning in the northeastern part of Burkina Faso as part of suspected terrorist attacks according to Rodolphe Sorgho, the lieutenant governor of the Sahel region. According to his statement, gunmen attacked and killed 31 people in the town of Kourakou, and killed another 13 in Tondobi, leaving dozens dead and wounded. No specific group has been linked to our claimed responsibility for the attack, but the country has been battling al-Qaeda and ISIS linked militants for a decade.  Associated Press Deutsche Welle Reuters

Chad Expels German Ambassador, Cites Bad Attitude for Reasoning. In a statement on Twitter, Chad’s Communication Ministry ordered German Ambassador Jan-Christian Gordon Kircke to leave the country within 48 hours. The ambassador, who has served in the country since 2021, was expelled due to an “impolite attitude” and “lack of respect for diplomatic customs” according to the statement. The German Foreign Office spokesperson told Deutsche Welle that they were in contact with the government of Chad, and that its reasons for the expulsion of the ambassador are unclear.  Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle Reuters

80 Kidnapped by Gunmen in Northwest Nigeria.  Gunmen abducted at least 80 people, mostly women and children, from the village of Wanzami in Nigeria’s northwestern Zamfara state on Friday.  Zamfara police confirmed the incident but have not confirmed the number of people abducted, though they did say they are working with the military and community to secure the safe return of the victims.  Reuters

Two Attacks in Nigeria’s Benue State Kill 74.  Separately in Nigeria, local authorities report that gunmen killed 74 people in Benue state in two separate attacks last week.  The first attack occurred on Wednesday in Umogidi village where suspected herdsmen killed 46 villagers.  The second attack occurred Friday evening at a camp for internally displaced people where 28 people were killed by unknown attackers.  The attacks come amid increasing competition for land between nomadic herders and pastoral farmers, as well as other escalating ethnic and religious tensions.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Cyber & Tech

Ukrainian Cyber Chief on ‘Lessons Learned’ from Russian Campaigns.  CyberScoop is out with a piece by Victor Zhora, the deputy head of Ukraine’s State Service of Special Communication and Information Protection, on the current status of Russia’s cyber war on Ukraine.  Zhora reports that Russia is shifting cyber activities towards the gathering of information for espionage purposes to back Russian military operations, as well as attacks on non-Ukrainian targets to discourage Kyiv’s democratic partners.  He added that Russian hackers are also relying more on software vulnerabilities rather than phishing email scams to execute more invasive attacks.  To counter these efforts, Zhora reiterated the call for a cyber coalition to increase sanctions on Russia and continue denying Moscow access to relevant technology.  CyberScoop

U.S., South Korea, Japan Express Concern Over North Korea Cyber Activities. The U.S., Japan, and South Korea released a joint statement on Friday expressing deep concern over North Korea’s “malicious” cyber activities in support of its weapons programs. Cryptocurrency funds stolen by Pyongyang-backed hackers have been a key propellant for financing North Korea’s weapons programs, according to experts in the U.S. and its allies. North Korea has denied the allegations. The three countries called on UN members to repatriate North Korean IT workers working abroad with fake identities to conduct these cyber activities. U.S. and South Korean forces have separately been conducting a series of annual spring military exercises since March; Pyongyang has responded to those exercises by increasing its military activities, and tensions remain high. Reuters

China’s Alibaba Testing ChatGPT Rival.  Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba is inviting select users to test a new artificial intelligence model, named “Tongyi Qianwen.”  The company’s cloud computing unit, Alibaba Cloud, developed the new AI tool to rival OpenAI’s chatbot ChatGPT, which is banned in China.  Alibaba Cloud is expected to formally launch the AI application at a summit on Tuesday.  Alibaba Cloud’s work adds to China’s efforts to build indigenous AI rivals; China’s Huawei and SenseTime are holding events on their own AI products this week.  Bloomberg Reuters

Baidu Suing Apple for Alleged Fake Copies of Ernie Chatbot.  China’s search engine giant Baidu is suing Apple and “relevant” app developers for allegedly posting fake copies of its chatbot Ernie to Apple’s app store.  Baidu, which is filing the lawsuits at a court in Beijing, said Ernie does not have an official app yet, so any copies on the App Store are counterfeits.  Baidu released Ernie last month to a lackluster response from investors, though it is still China’s closest rival to OpenAI’s ChatGPT.  Reuters

New ByteDance Lifestyle App Leads U.S. Downloads Despite TikTok Bans.  Lemon8, a new lifestyle app from Chinese tech giant ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, is surging in popularity in Western markets.  Lemon8 allows users to share and view photos, videos and text presented in an endless feed similar to TikTok.  Lemon8 has been at the top of the lifestyle category in Apple’s App Store for the last week and was in the top 10 rankings across all categories in late March.  Analysts say Lemon8 is gaining popularity as it has no direct Western rival; unlike Western social networks, Lemon8, like other Chinese apps, focuses on presenting content the user may be interested in.  South China Morning Post

New Threat Group Brokers Stolen Corporate, Public Data in Online Platform.  BleepingComputer is out with a report on the ARES Group, a cybercrime threat actor that is growing in popularity due to its access to stolen databases.  ARES Group maintains ARES Leaks, a platform on the regular web that offers data from leaks from 65 countries, as well as LeakBase, a market space launched by the group in early 2023 for leaks, leads and services.  Analysts say ARES appears to be a well-organized threat group that may expand and fill the gap in the cybercrime market left by the shutdown of the Breached forum.  Bleeping Computer

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