Report for Monday, April 1, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Iran warned Russia of security threat before Moscow attack

Russian military intelligence may be linked to 'Havana syndrome’

Zelensky says Ukraine faces retreat without U.S. aid

Israel to move over 1 million Palestinian civilians from Rafah ahead of assault

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE REPORTING – Belgorod – the One Russian City that’s a “War Zone.”

THE ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Netanyahu sends delegation to Egypt, Qatar for Gaza talks.  A new round of cease-fire talks started Sunday in Cairo, and Israel and Hamas sent representatives.  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office told Reuters he spoke with the heads of Israeli intelligence agencies Shin Bet and Mossad and "approved that delegations on their behalf go in the coming days to Doha and Cairo,” to try to make progress toward release of the hostages and a cease-fire.  Reuters Washington Post

Israel military to move 1 million civilians out of Rafah, then assault the city. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking at a news conference Sunday night in Jerusalem, said the Israeli military is preparing to move more than 1 million Palestinian civilians out of Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city, then attack the four remaining Hamas battalions holed up there.  “It’s the right thing to do operationally and internationally,” he said. “It takes time, but it will be done.”  As ceasefire negotiations restart in Cairo and Doha, Netanyahu added that Israel would not agree to a key Hamas demand that civilians and fighters be allowed to return back to their homes in the north Gaza.  “More concessions are not what will lead to a deal,” he said. “You need to conduct intelligent negotiations and not respond to illusory and dangerous demands.”  The deal now on the table is a ceasefire for six weeks, with the release of about 40 hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel and a large increase in humanitarian aid.  Bloomberg

Israeli troops leave Gaza’s Al Shifa hospital.  Israeli troops have withdrawn from Gaza’s Al-Shifa hospital after a two-week raid on the medical facility.  Israel’s military said it killed around 200 militants and detained hundreds during the raid, describing it as one of the most successful operations in its war against Hamas.  The Hamas-run Gaza media office said Israeli forces killed 400 Palestinians in the area around Al-Shifa, including medical staff.  Palestinian residents said the area around the hospital had been devastated, with buildings flattened or burned down.  One Gazan told Reuters, “This place needs to be rebuilt – there is no Shifa hospital anymore.”  Reuters Associated Press 

Israel proposes Gaza security force with Arab troops.   In Washington last week, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant proposed a policing plan for Gaza until a competent post-Hamas government can be stood up: deploy a multi-national military force made up of soldiers from Arab countries to keep order, escort humanitarian aid convoys, and prevent looting by gangs or Hamas.  Gallant asked for U.S. political and material support for this non-Hamas security plan in meetings with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan. The Arab force would secure the temporary pier that the U.S. will build off the coast.  President Joe Biden has pledged not to put American boots on the ground in the Mideast.  Axios

U.S. troops could be fired on while building pier off Gaza, experts warn.   The Biden administration’s plan to bypass rigorous Israeli security measures by installing a floating pier off Gaza to land humanitarian aid could put U.S. service members in harm’s way.  Americans’ participation in construction would make the project an inviting target for Hamas or another militant group, which could aim rockets, attack drones or explosive-laden speedboats at the pier.  The Army-led pier project will involve about 1,000 U.S. troops and four Army ships deployed from southeastern Virginia. The soldiers will build the floating steel structure and an 1,800-foot, two-lane causeway. U.S. personnel will move supplies to the causeway, but will not leave it, defense officials have said. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said that Israeli forces will ensure aid reaches those it should.  Washington Post

US has signed off on more bombs and warplanes for Israel. The U.S. recently authorized the transfer of billions of dollars worth of bombs and fighter jets to Israel, according to two sources familiar with the effort. The arms package includes a significant cache of over 1,800 MK84 2,000-pound bombs and 500 MK82 500-pound bombs, corroborating a report by the Washington Post.  Washington Post  Reuters

U.S.-Israel intelligence-sharing pact questioned.  Is U.S. intelligence being used to kill civilians in Gaza? That’s the question that worries some Washington office-holders, especially since the U.S. expanded its sharing agreement with Israel after the  Oct. 7 Hamas attacks of October 7.    The secret U.S.-Israeli intelligence-sharing agreement  is drawing more scrutiny from Democratic lawmakers and human-rights groups, as the civilian death toll mounts in Gaza.   Wall Street Journal

World Central Kitchen aid shipment heads to Gaza. The World Central Kitchen dispatched a three-ship convoy from Cyprus Saturday loaded with 400 tons of food and other supplies for Gaza. The charity said the ships and a towed barge carried enough staples to prepare more than 1 million meals. The cargo included a load of dates provided by the United Arab Emirates, traditionally eaten to break the fast during the holy month of Ramadan.  The convoy carries double the amount of food delivered by WCK’s initial shipment of 200 tons of food, water and other aid delivered in March.  Washington Post Bloomberg

Large scale Israel protests against Netanyahu.  Protesters spilled into the streets of Jerusalem and Tel Aviv beginning Saturday night to demand elections and a hostage deal.  Hostage families and their supporters joined in.  Israeli police detained several protesters and used water cannons on crowds.  On Sunday, anti-government protest leaders launched a multi-day demonstration at the gates of Israel’s parliament in Jerusalem, blocking roads and marching to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence.  Netanyahu addressed Israelis via a prime-time speech saying, “The pain of the families of the hostages breaks my heart; I think it breaks all of our hearts,” he said. “Anyone who says that I’m not doing everything to bring back our hostages is wrong and is misleading others.”  In response to calls for new elections, he said a new vote “at the height of the war, a moment before victory, will paralyze Israel for at least half a year.” He added that Hamas will be the first to “celebrate” the disruption.  Times of Israel  Al Jazeera  Wall Street Journal New York Times Washington Post

UN observers, translator wounded by shelling in southern Lebanon.  Three United Nations observers and a translator were wounded Saturday by shelling in Rmeish, southern Lebanon, the U.N. peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, said.  Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency said the military observers, from Australia, Chile and Norway, had been “targeted by an Israeli drone.” It did not offer any evidence for the claim.  The Israel Defense Forces denied any involvement, saying in a statement Saturday: “Contrary to the reports, the IDF did not strike a UNIFIL vehicle in the area of Rmeish this morning.”  The UN mission, UNIFIL, said those hurt were receiving treatment and that it was investigating the blast's origin.  The military observers were part of the U.N. Truce Supervision Organization, which supports UNIFIL.  In a statement, UNIFIL said a shell had exploded near the group that had been on a foot patrol along the Blue Line that divides southern Lebanon from Israel.  BBC Bloomberg Washington Post

Two civilians hurt in Israeli strikes on Damascus outskirts.  Two civilians were injured in Israeli strikes on the outskirts of Damascus on Sunday, the Syrian defense ministry said. Israel targeted several locations in the vicinity of Damascus with missiles launched from the occupied Golan Heights, the ministry said in a statement.  Reuters

Biden acknowledges 'pain' of Arab Americans over war in Gaza.  President Joe Biden on Friday issued a proclamation recognizing "the pain being felt" by Arab Americans over the war in Gaza and over U.S. support of Israel.  The proclamation came at the start of Arab American Heritage Month.  Many Muslims and Arabs in the United States have urged the Democratic president to call for a permanent ceasefire, stop arms sales to Israel and use more leverage to protect civilian lives.  Even so, Israel is the leading recipient of U.S. foreign aid, and the U.S. has vetoed multiple votes opposed by Israel in the United Nations Security Council.  Last week, the U.S. altered its stance by abstaining from rather than vetoing a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu furiously accused the U.S. of encouraging Hama to take a hard line in negotiations.  Reuters

THE RED SEA

U.S. forces destroy two drones in Red Sea.  At 8:30 a.m. (Sanaa time) Saturday, United States Central Command (CENTCOM) forces successfully engaged and destroyed two unmanned aerial systems (UAS) in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen in self-defense. One was engaged over the Red Sea and the other was engaged on the ground prepared to launch. CENTCOM

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Zelensky says Ukraine faces retreat without US aid. In an interview with the Washington Post, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned of dire consequences if the United States does not deliver its promised $60 billion in military and financial aid. Ukraine is scrambling “to find some way not to retreat,” Zelensky said. "If there is no U.S. support, it means that we have no air defense, no Patriot missiles, no jammers for electronic warfare, no 155-millimeter artillery rounds." Zelensky outlined a grim scenario in which Ukrainian forces would "retreat, step by step, in small steps” if there is a lack of munitions, which could force the Ukrainian army to shorten the front line to reduce the chances of a breakthrough by Russian forces. Despite President Joe Biden's urging, the aid package has remained stalled for months by House Speaker Mike Johnson, who is bowing to opposition from hard-right Republicans. Amid this deadlock, Zelensky said Ukraine is shifting to rely on domestic weaponry to compensate for shortages but admitted it is insufficient. As Russia intensifies its attacks, Zelensky defended Ukraine's right to target Russian infrastructure, particularly oil refineries, airfields and ships, as reciprocal stating: "We used our drones. Nobody can say to us you can't."  Zelensky also noted that Ukraine’s drones alone “are not enough for winning the war. We could use naval drones to push their fleet out of our territorial waters and the entire western part of the Black Sea, yes. But it’s not enough to win. These are drones, not missiles.” Washington Post CNN Reuters

Ukraine says Russian drone and missile attacks damage power facilities.  Russia launched 16 missiles and 11 drones at Ukraine in an overnight air attack, Ukraine's air force said on Sunday morning.  In a statement on Telegram, the air force said it had managed to down nine of the drones and nine of the missiles. While it did not identify the targets, Russia claimed to have hit energy infrastructure and the gas industry in Ukraine.  The Russian defense ministry said on Sunday, "As a result of this strike, the operation of defense industry enterprises involved in the manufacture and repair of weapons, equipment and ammunition has been disrupted. All the goals of the strike have been achieved. The assigned objects were hit.”.

For over a week, Russia has significantly stepped up an air strike campaign against Ukrainian energy facilities, causing significant damage. Ukraine's largest private energy firm, DTEK, said on Saturday that five of its six plants had been damaged or destroyed with 80% of its generating capacity lost, and that repairs could take up to 18 months.

Massive Russian missile and drone attacks targeted Ukraine's power infrastructure early Friday, hitting thermal and hydro plants across central and western regions. Among the facilities attacked were the Kaniv hydropower plant and the Dnister plant, which is located on the Dnister River, affecting not only Ukraine but also neighboring Moldova. President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted the risk of an ecological disaster similar to the one in the Kherson region caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka hydropower plant by Russian forces last year. Zelensky called for more air defenses.

Centrenergo’s  Zmiivska thermal plant in the Kharkiv region was reported destroyed in a recent strike. "The consequences were destructive, the station is destroyed," Andriy Hota, chairman of the company's supervisory board told Interfax Ukraine news agency. "There were many direct hits. Everything we repaired in preparation for the winter was destroyed.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine's air force downed two Russian missiles in the southern port city of Odesa on Friday afternoon, officials said, but debris hit civilian infrastructure, injuring five people. Reuters Reuters Reuters Reuters 

Chief commander says Ukraine will have enough troops; Russian assault on Kharkiv can't be ruled out.  On Friday, Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky warned of the potential for a Russian assault on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city and near Russia’s border. In an interview with Ukrinform news agency, he also said that the military would need to mobilize fewer than 500,000 additional soldiers, but did not specify how many more. Ukraine is considering lowering its draft age to 25, from 27, to replenish its military. "We expect that we will have enough people capable of defending their motherland," told the Ukrinform news agency. "I am talking not only about the mobilized but also about volunteer fighters." Syrsky added that an audit of non-combat units had allowed military planners to send "thousands" of service members to the front and that combat-support roles were "equally important" in Kyiv's defense effort. The former ground forces chief also said "powerful" defensive lines were being prepared "in almost all threatening areas" as Russia attacks. Syrsky added that Russia holds an ammunition advantage that is so far countered by Ukraine's use of precise artillery. Reuters  Kyiv Independent

Military briefing: Ukraine digs deep as Russia advances. Following the retreat from the eastern Donbas city of Avdiivka, Ukrainian forces face the reality of needing to bolster their defenses amid Russian advances and a dire shortage of artillery and ammunition. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine will build stronger fortifications along three lines of defense totaling 2,000 kilometers by the end of spring, the Financial Times reported. Ukraine’s government has allocated $800 million for the project. Construction only began to ramp up in February, the newspaper reported. Besides trenches, Ukraine is building concrete bunkers, laying minefields, digging anti-tank trenches and placing concrete “dragon’s teeth” obstacles, the newspaper reported. Financial Times

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE REPORTING – Belgorod – the One Russian City that’s a “War Zone.”

Belgium pledges $107 million to Ukraine for F-16 aircraft maintenance. Belgium approved its 25th aid package for Ukraine, allocating €100 million for F-16 maintenance through an international coalition. This follows Belgium's commitment to provide F-16 jets and pilot training, alongside pledges from the Netherlands, Denmark and Norway, with Ukraine expected to receive up to 60 jets. Kyiv Independent

France to send old armored vehicles and new missiles to Ukraine. France will support Ukraine against Russia by providing hundreds of old armored vehicles and new surface-to-air missiles, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said on Sunday. Following discussions between President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a new aid package is being prepared that includes the old but operational French equipment. France aims to supply hundreds of VAB armored troop carriers in 2024 and early 2025. It is also planning to deliver a new batch of Aster 30 missiles for Ukraine's ground-air defense.  Reuters

Ukraine's Zelensky reports his income increased in 2023. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported his 2023 income increased to 12.42 million hryvnias ($306,000), up from 3.7 million hryvnias the previous year, primarily due to better rent collection and the sale of government bonds. Despite the increase, there were no significant changes in his assets or possessions. The disclosure aligns with Zelenskiy's transparency efforts amidst Ukraine's anti-corruption measures and its bid to join the European Union. Reuters

Inside Ukraine’s quest to keep its European dream alive. The Washington Post profiled Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna, in charge of Ukraine’s European integration. Since Russia’s full-scale war in 2022, Ukraine has rapidly advanced toward European Union membership, defying expectations. Stefanishyna's effort to align Ukraine with the West and escape Russia's influence gained momentum when the invasion propelled Ukraine to official EU candidate status. For Ukraine, EU membership is about “coming back to the origins of the family of European nations” and “getting rid of the post-Soviet burden, this legacy of tyranny and suffering,” Stefanishyna said. Stefanishyna balances her diplomatic mission in Brussels with the realities of war in Kyiv, striving to secure Ukraine's future in the EU while navigating bureaucratic challenges and opposition from within the EU itself. Her dedication highlights Ukraine's quest for independence, democratic norms and integration into the European family. Full membership could take years, assuming Ukraine meets the criteria and overcomes political opposition within the 27-nation bloc. Washington Post

OPINION - Russia is gearing up for a big new push along a long front line.  As spring arrives in Ukraine, offering temporary relief from Russia's attacks, the looming threat of a major Russian offensive in summer heightens. Ukraine's situation appears more precarious than before, requiring urgent mobilization of more troops and the bolstering of front-line defenses. Western allies are distracted by other global issues and internal politics. The U.S. Congress's delays in approving a $60 billion aid package are exacerbating Ukraine's challenges. With inadequate support and its own delays in enhancing defenses and mobilizing forces, Ukraine faces a critical moment. The Economist

OPINION - The heroism of Ukraine and the nihilism of Mike Johnson. Amelia Glaser and Marci Shore recently visited Kyiv amid ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure, including a hypersonic missile strike on the Academy of Decorative and Applied Arts and Design. Their journey to Kyiv, taking over 36 hours from New York, underscored the resilience of Kyiv's citizens amidst constant threats. Despite the challenges, life in Kyiv exhibits signs that it is thriving, with new businesses and cultural exhibitions. However, the threat remains acute, with air raid alerts becoming a routine part of life. The effectiveness of Kyiv's air defense heavily depends on American aid, which faces potential cutoffs, endangering millions and highlighting the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict.  CNN

The Americas

Russian military intelligence unit may be linked to 'Havana syndrome.’  The “Havana Syndrome” ailment that U.S. diplomats and spies have suffered from may be linked to energy weapons used by members of Russian military intelligence (GRU), according to the Insider media group.  The Riga-based media group, in collaboration with 60 Minutes and Germany’s Der Spiegel, found that members of a GRU sabotage unit known as 29155 were present at places where these health incidents were reported.  Senior members of Unit 29155 later received awards and promotions for work related to the development of “non-lethal acoustic weapons.”  The findings contrast a U.S. intelligence investigation last year that concluded that it was “very unlikely” that a foreign adversary was behind the ailment.  The Kremlin dismissed Insider’s report as “exaggerated” and “baseless.”  Insider Reuters Reuters Politico Axios

U.S. to impose new visa curbs on Hong Kong officials over rights crackdown. On Friday, the United States announced plans to impose new visa restrictions on Hong Kong officials responsible for the crackdown on rights and freedoms in the city, following the enactment of a new national security law, Article 23. Secretary of State Antony Blinken cited actions against Hong Kong's autonomy and democratic institutions as the reason for these measures, although specific officials targeted were not named. This move aligns with previous U.S. sanctions against Hong Kong officials and the end of the territory's special economic treatment, reflecting continued U.S. disapproval of China's policies in Hong Kong since Britain handed over the territory on July 1, 1997.  Reuters Bloomberg

Biden unlikely to reimpose oil sanctions on Venezuela.  The Biden administration is unlikely to reimpose sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry despite President Nicolas Maduro’s efforts to block the political opposition from upcoming July elections.  U.S. officials said despite Maduro’s actions, which stray from his promise to facilitate free and fair elections this year, there are concerns that reverting to previous oil sanctions will accelerate the decline of Venezuelan oil production, which would raise oil prices, potentially prompt further migration from Venezuela, and open the gateway to more Chinese investment in Venezuela.  Wall Street Journal Washington Post

Canada to train troops from Caribbean nations for Haiti mission.  Canada has deployed 70 soldiers to Jamaica with the goal of training troops from Caribbean nations who are slated to participate in a U.N.-authorized mission to Haiti, according to a statement from the Canadian defense ministry on Saturday. The Canadian troops are predominantly from the French-speaking province of Quebec and will provide training on core peacekeeping skills and combat first aid.  The troops are set to remain in Jamaica for an initial period of one month to train around 330 troops from Jamaica, Belize, and the Bahamas.  Reuters 

US Army refreshes competition for short-range laser. As the U.S. Army seeks to better its short-range air defense capabilities with laser weapons, the service is evaluating additional 50-kilowatt platforms, even as its initial four prototypes of the Directed Energy Maneuver-Short Range Air Defense systems are being deployed in the U.S. Central Command's area of operations. Three of the Army's prototypes are currently stationed in Iraq, while a fourth and final prototype will join the others after undergoing additional work, according to Lt. Gen. Robert Rasch, the director of the Army's Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office.  Defense News

Asia and Oceania

Philippines revamps maritime security council amid China tensions.  The Philippines is boosting maritime security efforts amid increased tensions with China in the South China Sea.  Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued an order that strengthens maritime security coordination across his government.  The order expands and reorganizes the National Maritime Council, adding the national security advisor, solicitor general, National Intelligence Coordinating Agency chief, and the South China Sea task force to the group.  The Armed Forces of the Philippines was also named as an agency supporting the council, signaling an expanded role of the military in maritime affairs, as well as the space agency.  Bloomberg Reuters 

Chinese state media stoked allegation Taiwan's president would flee war.  Taiwan’s outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen has been the subject of unfounded rumors suggesting that she plans to flee Taiwan on a U.S. plane in the event of a war and that Taiwanese military drills were rehearsals for this.  An analysis by the Information Environment Research Center (IORG) found that the rumor originated in an unsubstantiated report first published by a media outlet controlled by China’s Communist Party (CCP) in June 2021.  While Taipei has repeatedly denied the reports, the stories have persisted.  Circulation of the rumors often spiked at politically sensitive moments, including when then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in 2022 and during annual military drills.  Various media outlets both in China and Taiwan amplified these narratives.  Despite efforts to influence public sentiment, the impact of China's influence on Taiwan's political landscape remains unclear.  Reuters 

Former Taiwan president Ma leaves for China, likely to meet Xi.  Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou left on Monday for an 11-day trip to China.  Taiwanese media reports that Ma, a member of Taiwan’s Kuomintang opposition party,  is likely to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing next Monday.  Ma said he is on a trip of “peace and friendship” to convey the Taiwanese people’s desire to avoid war.  Reuters 

Fincantieri inks $1.3B deal with Indonesia for two patrol ships. Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri has secured a $1.3 billion contract to provide the Indonesian Navy with two 4,900-ton PPA multipurpose offshore patrol vessels.  The deal involves the allocation of two 143-meter-long PPA ships, originally intended for the Italian Navy, to Indonesia instead, with Fincantieri confirming that these vessels are currently under construction and fitting at the company's integrated shipyard in Riva Trigoso-Muggiano.  The deal comes despite the Indonesian government's reported lack of funding for the purchase.  Defense News

China joins probe into deadly Pakistan suicide attack on its nationals.  A Chinese investigative team arrived in  Pakistan on Friday to assist with the investigation of a suicide bombing that killed five Chinese nationals. The attack targeted a vehicle carrying engineers and workers to the Dasu Dam project, also claiming the life of a Pakistani driver. This incident underscores ongoing security concerns for Chinese personnel involved in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects in Pakistan. Beijing has called for a thorough investigation and enhanced protection for its citizens in the country.  There is a history of targeted attacks against Chinese workers in Pakistan. In July 2021, at least 13 people, including nine Chinese nationals, were killed when a suicide bomber detonated the explosives in his vehicle near a bus carrying Chinese and Pakistani engineers and laborers, prompting Chinese companies to suspend work for a time.  Associated Press

US-funded Radio Free Asia shuts Hong Kong bureau, citing security law concerns. Radio Free Asia (RFA) has closed its Hong Kong bureau due to safety concerns under a new national security law, marking a significant blow to media freedoms in the city. RFA’s President Bay Fang cited actions by Hong Kong authorities and the law's enactment as key reasons for the closure, though RFA will maintain its official media registration. RFA was "among the last independent news organizations reporting on events happening in Hong Kong in Cantonese and Mandarin,” Fang said. Advocates of press freedom say the law significantly raises the risks for journalists operating in the city. Its vague definition of external interference can be broadly applied to regular journalistic work, the activists say. RFA’s closure underscores the shrinking space for free press in Beijing-ruled Hong Kong.  Reuters Associated Press New York Times Wall Street Journal 

Europe

Iran alerted Russia to security threat before Moscow attack.  Iran reportedly warned Russia of a possible major “terrorist operation” in Russia ahead of the attack at a concert in Moscow’s Crocus City Hall, which killed at least 144 people and was claimed by Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K).  One source said Tehran shared information with Moscow about a potential attack that it acquired from interrogations of those arrested in connection with bombings in Iran.  ISIS-K had claimed responsibility for twin bombings in Kerman, Iran in January.  Another source said the Iranian warning about a potential attack in Russia lacked specific details regarding the timing and exact target.  The U.S. also reportedly warned Russia about an imminent attack.  While Russia played down the U.S. intelligence over deep distrust of Washington, it is harder for Russia to dismiss intelligence from its diplomatic ally Iran.  In response to the latest report about the Iranian warning, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “I do not know anything about this.”  Iran’s foreign ministry and The White House did not comment on the matter.  Reuters 

Russians back Vladimir Putin in blaming Ukraine for concert hall terror attack. Following the March 22 terrorist attack at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall, which killed at least 144 people, Russian state media and officials quickly blamed Ukraine, despite the claim of responsibility by Islamic State offshoot known as ISIS-K.  Most Russians, influenced by state propaganda and President Vladimir Putin’s assertions of Ukrainian involvement, believe Kyiv is responsible.  “If the propaganda and the authorities blame Ukraine as the main narrative, people will believe it, because control over the information space is almost absolute,” Denis Volkov, a sociologist and director of the independent Russian polling center Levada, told the Financial Times.  However, skepticism exists, particularly among younger Russians and war opponents, who are more likely to attribute the attack to ISIS.  Financial Times

FSB claims to foil 'terrorist attack in crowded place' in Russia. Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) claims to have thwarted a terrorist attack in Stavropol Krai, detaining three Central Asians with bomb-making materials, according to the Russian state-owned news agency TASS. "Components of an improvised explosive device, chemicals and munitions were seized from the detainees at their place of residence," TASS said, citing the FSB's statement. Kyiv Independent 

Putin calls up 150,000 for military service in spring conscription drive.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has initiated Russia’s standard spring conscription, enlisting 150,000 citizens for a year-long military service. This follows Russia's recent legislation, effective January 1, 2024, extending the conscription age to 30 from 27 and mandating military service for all men from age 18, with alternatives available during higher education. Reuters

Russian defector’s killing was a warning to others. The killers who shot Russian defector Maksim Kuzminov in Spain last February wanted the crime to make headlines. They shot him six times, ran over his body with their car and left shell casings from 9-millimeter Makarov rounds, a standard ammunition of the former Communist bloc.  “It was a clear message,” said a senior official from Guardia Civil, the Spanish police force overseeing the investigation into the killing. “I will find you, I will kill you, I will run you over and humiliate you.”  New York Times

Europe in ‘pre-war era,’ warns Poland’s Prime Minister Tusk, citing Russia’s threat. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has declared Europe is in a “pre-war era” and still has a “long way to go” to be ready to counter Russian threats. Highlighting the unprecedented uncertainty since 1945, Tusk said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 showed the risk of a wider war. “The most worrying thing at the moment is that literally any scenario is possible. We haven’t seen a situation like this since 1945,” Tusk said in an interview with German newspaper Die Welt published Friday. “I know it sounds devastating, especially for the younger generation, but we have to get used to the fact that a new era has begun: the pre-war era. I’m not exaggerating; it’s becoming clearer every day.” Europe's response has included increased defense budgets and NATO expansion, with Finland and Sweden joining, bringing the alliance to 32 members.  CNN

Czechs accuse men of ‘Russian influence operation’ in Europe. The Czech Republic has frozen assets linked to a Russian influence operation in Europe — led by Viktor Medvedchuk, a high-profile, pro-Russian Ukrainian politician, and Artem Marchevskyi, a Ukrainian-Israeli citizen — through the Voice of Europe website. This operation aimed to undermine Ukraine's sovereignty and spread pro-Russian narratives within the European Parliament. The operation reportedly involved payments to European politicians for promoting Russian interests. Citing unnamed intelligence sources, the Czech news media reported that politicians from Germany, France, Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands and Hungary had been paid by the Voice of Europe to promote Russian interests in the European Parliament. According to Der Spiegel, the prominent German news outlet, one of the politicians who received financial compensation was Petr Bystron, a German lawmaker from the far-right Alternative for Germany party.  New York Times

ANALYSIS — Why Russia Is protecting North Korea from nuclear monitors. For a decade, Washington and Moscow have worked together to keep North Korea from expanding its arsenal of nuclear weapons. No longer. Russia on Thursday vetoed a United Nations panel monitoring North Korea's nuclear program evasion. The move comes amid evidence of mutual aid between Moscow and Pyongyang. The UN panel had been exposing Russia's fuel and goods supply to North Korea, likely in exchange for military supplies, including missiles, that Russia uses in its war against Ukraine. The veto highlights the growing fractures in global efforts against nuclear threats. The decision also reflects Russia's broader strategy to undermine international sanctions. North Korea is the only country to have conducted nuclear tests in the 21st century - in 2006, 2009, 2013, twice in 2016, and 2017, according to the United Nations. New York Times Reuters

Defense sources say Italy intercepts Russian planes over the Baltic Sea.  The Italian air force said on Friday that it intercepted Russian planes flying over international waters in the Baltic Sea, with two incidents occurring on consecutive days. The interceptions, involving Eurofighter jets from a Polish base, were part of a NATO mission. The two defense sources said radars spotted the Russian aircraft which did not respond to radio signals and requests to communicate. Reuters 

France asks for foreign police and military help with the massive Paris Olympics security challenge. France has requested over 2,000 police officers from 46 countries to bolster security for the upcoming Paris Olympics amid high alert for potential attacks. This international security cooperation extends to military personnel for specific tasks, including explosive detection. The heightened security measures follow recent attacks and aim to ensure safety for the estimated 15 million visitors for the July 26-Aug. 11 Games and Paralympics that follow. Associated Press 

Man arrested as hostage situation in Dutch nightclub ends.  A man was arrested after a hostage situation at Café Petticoat in Ede, Netherlands. Four hostages were taken early Saturday, with all released seven hours later. The suspect, who threatened to blow himself up and was armed with knives, is under investigation for his motives and mental state. Approximately 150 homes were evacuated, and the town center was closed. BBC 

Serbia’s Vucic designates defense chief as leader of new government.  Serbian President Aleksandr Vucic has proposed his defunct minister Milos Vucevic to be the country’s new prime minister.  Vucevic would succeed Ana Brnabic, another Vucic loyalist.  Vucic’s recommendation comes after he cemented his hold on power in a snap election in December.  Bloomberg

Middle East

UAE signals interest in European nuclear energy investments, sources say. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is exploring investment opportunities in European nuclear power infrastructure, specifically showing interest in becoming a minority investor through its state-owned Emirates Nuclear Energy Company (ENEC). Talks have been held with European countries, including Britain, aiming for ENEC to hold minority stakes without direct management or operational roles. This move is part of the strategy of the Middle East nation to diversify its economy beyond oil and Britain's search for private investment in nuclear projects like Sizewell C.  The UAE and Britain have signed a new memorandum on civil nuclear cooperation.  Reuters

Africa

Senegal top court confirms Faye’s election victory. Senegal's Constitutional Council has confirmed Bassirou Diomaye Faye's victory in the presidential election, declaring that he secured over 54% of votes. Faye, the opposition candidate, is set to become the country's fifth president, with his inauguration planned for April 2, replacing outgoing President Macky Sall.  Reuters

CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

New DoD cyber policy office opens. The Pentagon officially announced its new cyber policy office, a significant step towards increasing the Department of Defense's focus on cybersecurity matters. The congressionally-mandated Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy was established with Ashley Manning taking the helm as interim leader until a Senate-confirmed appointee is in place. Last week, President Joe Biden nominated Michael Sulmeyer, the top cyber advisor to the Army secretary and a long-time frontrunner, to lead the newly established office, according to earlier reports by Recorded Future News.  The Record NextGov 

DoD seeks to bolster cybersecurity of contractors. The Pentagon is developing a shared virtual cloud-based workspace for contractors with the goal of bettering their cybersecurity posture as part of a broader strategic effort to fortify the defense industry against cyber threats. According to David McKeown, the Pentagon's Deputy Chief Information Officer for Cybersecurity, the initiative involves a pilot program this year involving up to 75 small businesses to test the feasibility of securing data in a cloud environment, with plans to scale up the offering if successful. On the threat posed by adversaries seeking to steal sensitive data from contractors, McKeown commented on the necessity for cybersecurity measures saying that “everyone should believe in the power of the hacker, it's been proven out many times...this is a real threat.”  Defense One  

CISA says Ivanti-linked ransomware attack potentially affected over 100,000 individuals. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has notified lawmakers that the recent breach of its Chemical Security Assessment Tool (CSAT), linked to Ivanti products, potentially affected more than 100,000 individuals, triggering mandatory disclosure to Congress under the Federal Information Security Management Act. The breach also impacted the CISA Gateway portal for critical infrastructure security tools.  CISA said that while there is no evidence of data theft, the breach is classified as a “major incident” due to its significant scale. According to a CISA official, an internal investigation revealed that the attackers exploited an Ivanti vulnerability to deploy a webshell against the CSAT tool, resulting in a “loss of control” and prompting the agency to take the systems offline as a precautionary measure. CISA maintains that the incident had no operational impact, and the agency has begun notifying affected individuals and companies, while its chief information officer and threat hunting team conclude their probe into the breach.  CyberScoop  

FEC warns of deepfake threat to 2024 election. Federal officials have sounded the alarm over the threat posed by artificial intelligence-generated synthetic content ,or “deep fakes,” to the upcoming 2024 elections, both within the U.S. and internationally. Daniel Breedlove, the Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Emerging & Disruptive Technologies at the National Intelligence Council, highlighted the Office of the Director of National Intelligence's identification of AI-generated deepfakes and misinformation as transnational threat issue. Breedlove cited statistics indicating a tenfold increase in the number of realistic deepfakes detected globally across various industries from 2022 to 2023, with North America experiencing a staggering 1740% surge in deepfake content.  NextGov

AT&T confirms customer records leak. AT&T has acknowledged a massive data breach impacting approximately 73 million current and former customers, reversing its initial denials that the leaked data originated from the telecommunications giant. After repeatedly denying for two weeks that their systems had been compromised, the company confirmed that the exposed data belonged to 7.6 million current AT&T account holders and 65.4 million former customers, dating back to 2019 or earlier. AT&T’s statement followed growing pressure to address the substantial data leak, which exposed sensitive customer information.  Bleeping Computer Tech Crunch 

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Ken Hughes, Brian Bonner, and Leighton Durham contributed to this report.

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