Report for Friday, September 27, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Friday, September 27, 2024

Netanyahu rejects U.S.- France-Arab cease-fire plan for Hezbollah conflict

Biden announces $8 billion in military aid for Ukraine as he meets with Zelensky

U.S. Intelligence Assessment Stresses Risks in Allowing Long-Range Strikes by Ukraine

Blinken set to meet with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi

Putin draws a nuclear red line for the West

U.S. officials verify that China’s newest nuclear-powered submarine sank in dock this year

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

National Security Official Warns of ‘Persistent’ Efforts to Interfere in US Elections  The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Netanyahu rejects U.S.- France-Arab cease-fire plan for Hezbollah conflict.  Arriving in New York for the U.N. General Assembly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed a statement pushed by the U.S., France, other European and Middle Eastern allies for a 21-day cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah.  Biden administration officials thought Israel was on board, but Netanyahu said no.  Israel would continue fighting Hezbollah “with full force,” he announced.  “We will not stop until we achieve all of our objectives.” Biden administration officials said Netanyahu had pulled a bait and switch. “A lot of care and effort was put into that statement,” including extensive conversations with senior Israeli officials, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters. “And we wouldn’t have made that statement if we didn’t have reason to believe that the conversations that we were having, with the Israelis in particular, were supportive of that goal.”  Netanyahu is scheduled to speak to the General Assembly Friday.  Meanwhile, an Israeli warplane struck near Beirut, killing Mohammad Surur, head of a Hezbollah air force unit. A second person was killed and 15 were wounded, bringing the death toll overnight and on Thursday to 28 and over 600 since Monday.   Washington Post  New York Times Reuters

Column: Netanyahu to get icy reception at U.N.  When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks Friday at the U.N. General Assembly, he will face a mostly angry audience, writes Washington Post Worldview columnist Ishaan Tharoor. The General Assembly last week approved a symbolic resolution calling for the dismantling of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and an end to the Israeli occupation. Numerous nations called for a separate, Palestinian state.  Guyana’s president Mohamed Irfaan Ali’s remarks expressed an apparently widely held view: “The right of self-defense is being used as a weapon of mass extermination, stoking legitimate fears of genocide.”  Washington Post  

Israel’s economic outlook grim.  Moody's is set to downgrade Israel's credit rating for the second time on Friday night, Israeli media reported.  Israel’s gross domestic product contracted sharply in the last quarter of 2023, due to shrinking consumer spending, exports and investment. Tourism is down. Tens of thousands of businesses have closed, job losses soared and Israeli reservists called up to active duty are struggling to maintain jobs or small businesses. Two reserve brigades were activated  Wednesday. Defense spending has at least doubled.  The Central Bank warned that the Gaza war could cost $67 billion through 2025, not counting Israel’s recent escalation against Hezbollah.  Washington Post   Jerusalem Post  

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Biden announces $8 billion in military aid for Ukraine as he meets with Zelensky. In a move to bolster Ukraine's fight against Russia, President Joe Biden unveiled an $8 billion military aid package on Thursday. The package includes $5.5 billion set aside before the U.S. fiscal year closes and $2.4 billion under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. This initiative enables the U.S. to purchase weapons for Ukraine directly from manufacturers rather than pulling from American reserves. Key highlights include a cutting-edge Patriot air defense system, precision-guided Joint Standoff Weapons, advanced drones, air-to-ground munitions, and enhanced F-16 pilot training. Biden's announcement coincided with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to the White House, where he presented a “victory plan.” Sitting beside Zelensky in the Oval Office, Biden declared, "The United States will provide Ukraine with the support it needs to win this war." Clad in his signature military-style gear, Zelensky expressed deep gratitude, saying, "We deeply appreciate that Ukraine and America have stood side by side from the very first moments of this terrible Russian invasion. Your determination is incredibly important for us to prevail." Reuters Newsweek USA Today Punjab News President.gov.ua WhiteHouse.gov

Ukraine’s Allies Are Strapped for Cash and Arms Supplies Are at Risk. Ukraine’s military support for 2025 is at risk as Western allies face financial constraints and struggle to meet their commitments. Despite a $50 billion loan deal from frozen Russian assets being negotiated by the Group of Seven, the funds are insufficient to cover Ukraine’s needs for another year of war. Russia’s economy is on a war footing, while Ukraine’s allies are not. Moreover, Moscow is assisted by Iran and North Korea. President Volodymyr Zelensky is seeking stronger NATO backing, but political challenges in the US and Europe may cut additional aid. The cash crunch could force Kyiv into negotiations from a position of weakness. Bloomberg

Ukraine is on the defensive, militarily, economically and diplomatically. Ukraine faces increasing challenges on military, economic, and diplomatic fronts. President Volodymyr Zelensky, during a tour in America, reiterated his "victory plan" to end Russia’s two-and-a-half-year-long invasion but expressed concerns about diminishing Western support. While President Joe Biden announced additional weapons for Ukraine, Donald Trump’s potential presidency raises uncertainty. Zelensky fears being pressured into an unfavorable peace as Ukrainian forces lose ground and domestic support weakens. Russia’s slow but costly advances continue while Ukraine’s forces struggle with manpower and supply shortages. Economist

U.S. Intelligence Stresses Risks in Allowing Long-Range Strikes by Ukraine. U.S. intelligence agencies have warned against allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied long-range missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia, citing potential retaliation from Moscow. While Ukraine has pushed for permission to use U.S., British, and French missiles to disrupt Russian military operations, the intelligence assessment cautions that such strikes might provoke forceful Russian responses against U.S. and European targets without changing the course of the war. Intelligence reports suggest Russia could escalate sabotage or even attacks on coalition bases. The Biden administration remains undecided. New York Times

Harris Meets with Zelensky, Anticipating a Handover of Global Crises. Vice President Kamala Harris met with President Volodymyr Zelensky Thursday at the White House, signaling her preparation to handle U.S.-Ukraine relations if she wins the November election. The meeting followed President Joe Biden's announcement of $8 billion in military aid to Ukraine. Harris emphasized U.S. commitment to Ukraine, stating that the fight against Russian aggression "matters to the people of America" and warning that President Vladimir Putin may target NATO countries if he succeeds in Ukraine. Harris criticized calls for Ukraine to trade territory for peace, aligning her stance with continued support for Kyiv. Harris said there were “some in my country who would instead force Ukraine to give up large parts of its sovereign territory. These proposals are the same as those of (President Vladimir) Putin. And let us be clear: they are not proposals for peace. Instead, they are proposals for surrender.” Neither Harris nor Zelensky took questions after their remarks. New York Times Deutsche Welle The Hill CNN The Guardian CNN Reuters

Trump to meet with Zelensky a day after Ukrainian leader meets with Harris. Donald Trump announced he will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday at Trump Tower in New York. This follows Zelensky's meetings with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris at the White House. It marks their first meeting since Trump’s 2019 impeachment over allegations involving Ukraine. During a recent campaign event, Trump criticized Zelensky for refusing to negotiate with Russia to end the war. Trump remains skeptical of U.S. involvement in Ukraine. Trump claims he can end the war quickly by negotiating a deal but has not provided specifics. Washington Post Associated Press

Trump and Zelensky have a turbulent history. Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky's relationship has been marked by tension and controversy. It began with Trump’s 2019 impeachment, triggered by a phone call where Trump pressured Zelensky to investigate Joe Biden in exchange for military aid. The call led to accusations that Trump was leveraging U.S. support for personal political gain. While Zelensky described the call as "normal" during a public appearance with Trump, the fallout strained their ties. In recent years, their differences have deepened. Trump has been skeptical of U.S. involvement in Ukraine's war against Russia, suggesting Ukraine should cede territory to end the war. He has publicly praised Russian President Vladimir Putin. Washington Post

Inside Ukraine’s Effort to Win Over Donald Trump. Ukraine is actively working to win over Donald Trump as part of its diplomatic strategy, believing his presidency could shift U.S. policy on the war with Russia. Zelensky’s team, with help from figures like former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, is attempting to appeal to Trump’s economic instincts rather than focusing on democracy or moral values. Pompeo advised Zelensky to emphasize Ukraine’s resource wealth and economic potential, warning that donor-based appeals won’t secure lasting support. Despite recent tensions, including Trump’s public taunts of Zelensky, Ukrainian officials continue to engage Trump’s camp, seeing risks and potential advantages in his unpredictable stance. Time

Zelensky’s Star Power Fades on Capitol Hill. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s latest visit to Capitol Hill on Thursday received a far cooler reception than his previous trips. Once hailed with overwhelming support, Zelensky now faces skepticism, particularly from Republicans. Speaker Mike Johnson snubbed his visit, and some Republicans expressed frustration over perceived political favoritism. Johnson criticized Zelensky’s visit to a munitions factory in Scranton, Pennsylvania, calling it a politically motivated move. While Zelensky avoided asking for more aid, the fading enthusiasm among some lawmakers raises concerns about future U.S. military assistance, especially if Republicans gain more control after upcoming elections. New York Times

Republicans abandon subtlety, turn against Ukraine’s Zelensky. U.S. bipartisan support for Ukraine has sharply eroded, with Republicans increasingly turning against President Volodymyr Zelensky. Once aligned on aiding Ukraine against Russia, GOP leaders, including Donald Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson, have grown critical. Trump mocked Zelensky, blamed him for the war’s trajectory, and suggested Zelensky favors Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. Meanwhile, Johnson demanded the dismissal of Ukraine’s U.S. ambassador and refused to meet Zelensky. House Republicans also launched an investigation into Zelensky’s visit to a Pennsylvania ammunition plant, accusing it of being politically motivated. MSNBC Washington Post 

Volodymyr Zelensky seeks to contain Republican backlash over US visit. The Republican backlash to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent U.S. trip has sparked criticism within Ukraine. Some in Kyiv expressed frustration over the handling of the visit, particularly Zelensky’s appearance at a Pennsylvania arms factory, seen as politically charged. Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the foreign affairs committee in Ukraine’s parliament, called the visit a mistake, while others blamed Ukraine’s ambassador for poor judgment. Despite these concerns, David Arakhamia, leader of Zelensky’s party, downplayed the backlash as campaign rhetoric. He defended the ambassador, stating Ukraine couldn’t wait for U.S. elections to press for more support against Russia. Financial Times BBC

White House slaps down House Republicans for ‘political stunt’ over Zelensky visit. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Thursday dismissed Republican outrage over President Volodymyr Zelensky's recent visit to a Pennsylvania munitions plant, calling it a "political stunt." Jean-Pierre pointed out that a similar visit by Zelensky to a Utah defense facility earlier in the year, which included Republican officials, did not raise any concerns. She emphasized that the Ukrainian government requested the Pennsylvania visit, and the use of military aircraft for Zelensky’s travel was standard. Jean-Pierre urged Republicans to drop their complaints, defending the visit as "business as usual." The Independent

Biden to convene Ramstein leader-level meeting in October. President Joe Biden will convene a leader-level meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Germany on Oct. 12 to coordinate support from over 50 nations backing Ukraine against Russia. This follows President Zelensky’s U.S. visit to secure more military aid for his "victory plan." While Ukraine received pledges of new military aid, long-range weapons like ATACMS or Storm Shadow were not included. Ukraine seeks permission to use its existing long-range missiles for deeper strikes inside Russian territory. Kyiv Independent

Hungary would have given in to Russia, says Orbán’s top aide. Balázs Orbán, political director for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, stirred controversy by stating Hungary wouldn’t have fought Russia if in Ukraine's position, suggesting that Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression resulted in needless deaths. Drawing on Hungary’s failed 1956 uprising against the Soviet Union, he criticized President Volodymyr Zelensky’s decision to resist. Opposition figures, including member of the European Parliament Péter Magyar and former Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány, condemned his remarks as disrespectful to Hungary’s historical freedom fighters. Despite the backlash, Orbán defended his stance, arguing Hungary sees no sense in the ongoing war, in which many have died "for nothing." PoliticoEU Bloomberg Barron’s

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 8, injure 49 over past day. Russian attacks over the past day eight people across Ukraine, authorities said Friday. In Odesa Oblast, three people were killed in Izmail, including two women and a 73-year-old man. In Donetsk Oblast, two people died in Toretsk, and one each in Chasiv Yar and Siversk. One person was also killed in Kherson. Russian drone and missile strikes injured at least 49 others, including 19 in Kherson, 11 in Odesa, and several more in Kharkiv Oblast. Kyiv Independent

Russian missiles and drones target Kyiv for 5 hours and hit Ukraine’s power grid, killing one. Ukraine’s air defenses on Thursday battled a five-hour overnight Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv. The onslaught caused property damage and injured two people in the capital. "This night the enemy carried out another massive attack on the Ukrainian energy sector, using drones and missiles," Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said, adding that three electricity transmission plants, including one in the southern Mykolaiv region, were among the targets. Russian hypersonic missiles also targeted western Ukraine’s Starokostiantyniv, home to an important air base and a frequent target of Moscow's strikes. Energy infrastructure was hit in Ukraine’s western Ivano-Frankivsk region, causing a blackout. In the Odesa region, a missile killed a 62-year-old woman, and 10 people were injured in Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine’s defenses destroyed 66 drones and four missiles. Moscow’s attacks since March have knocked out about half of Ukraine's available power generation capacity, resulting in lengthy blackouts for millions across the country. Associated Press Newsweek Reuters

Ukraine’s winter energy woes expected to weigh heavily on a tired people. Ukraine faces a harsh winter as Russian strikes continue to cripple its power grid, compounding the challenges of over two years of war. Widespread blackouts, lasting anywhere from 4 to 20 hours a day, are expected to erode the morale of the war-weary population further. While efforts are underway to repair the damage, including help from European allies, concerns over energy shortages and battlefield setbacks persist. Public frustration is rising, with a growing number of Ukrainians open to compromises to end the war, while criticism of Ukraine’s Western partners for delays in military aid is also increasing. Washington Post

Russian Army Says Captured Town in Ukraine's Donetsk Region. Russia's army announced on Thursday that it had captured the Ukrainian town of Ukrainsk in the eastern Donetsk region, marking a recent territorial gain in Moscow’s ongoing offensive. Once home to over 10,000 residents, Ukrainsk is about 30 kilometers west of Donetsk. This follows Russia’s capture of several small villages in the region as its forces push to control all of Donetsk. Moscow has demanded Ukraine withdraw from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions to start peace talks. Moscow Times

Germany approves an additional $447 million for military aid to Ukraine. Germany's Bundestag this week approved nearly €400 million ($447 million) in additional military aid to Ukraine. This funding, part of the Ukraine Compact signed by 32 allied nations at the July NATO summit, will enhance Ukraine's defense with air defense systems, tanks, drones, and ammunition. Germany also pledged €170 million ($190 million) to restore Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. While Germany has been a major military donor, political and budgetary concerns may reduce aid in 2025, as anti-war parties gained ground in recent regional elections. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, as of June 2024, Germany has allocated 14.7 billion euros ($16.4 billion) for Ukraine since 2022. Kyiv Independent

Britain targets Russian LNG sector with fresh shipping sanctions. Britain imposed sanctions Thursday on five vessels and two entities involved in the shipping of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), using new legal powers for the first time. The sanctioned entities are White Fox Ship Management and Ocean Speedstar Solutions OPC, along with vessels such as Asya Energy and Pioneer. This move builds on sanctions against Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project, further targeting key components of Russia’s energy sector as part of efforts to curb its production. Reuters

Ukraine considers 55,000 citizens as missing persons. As of Thursday, Ukraine lists 55,000 citizens as missing under special circumstances due to the ongoing war, occupation, and disasters, according to Deputy Interior Minister Leonid Tymchenko. The unified register includes mostly military personnel, with some discovered to be in captivity while others are identified as deceased. This figure marks an increase from 42,000 in July. It does not account for over 19,500 Ukrainian children forcibly deported to Russia, Belarus, or occupied territories, highlighting the severe humanitarian toll of the war. Kyiv Independent

A Ukrainian soldier has 10 seconds to escape a thermite-spewing Russian dragon drone. In early September, Ukraine deployed "dragon drones," which drop thermite, an incendiary burning at 5,400 degrees Fahrenheit, over enemy trenches. Russia has now adopted the same technology, using dragon drones in their assault on Vuhledar in eastern Ukraine. These drones, effective as terror weapons, cause rapid burns, forcing soldiers to flee within seconds. After three years of failed attempts, Russia has massed enough forces to potentially capture Vuhledar, using various munitions to devastate the town and surrounding areas. Forbes

Senator targeted in deepfake call with ‘malign actor’ posing as Ukrainian. Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was targeted by a "deepfake" posing as former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba in a video call. The person’s appearance and voice mimicked Kuleba, but Cardin grew suspicious when odd election-related questions arose. Cardin quickly ended the call and alerted authorities. The incident raises concerns about deepfake technology targeting lawmakers. Kuleba believes Russian pranksters were behind the attempt. Washington Post

Ukraine’s new infantry recruits ‘freeze’ in face of Russian onslaught. Ukraine’s new infantry recruits, often over 40 and inadequately trained, are struggling on the battlefield against Russia. Experienced soldiers, though exhausted, hold their ground, but newer conscripts freeze under fire and suffer heavy casualties, with some abandoning their posts. Commanders report that 50-70% of new recruits are killed or wounded within days. The lack of proper training, outdated Soviet-style methods, and high rotation turnover are leading to significant manpower challenges for Ukraine as it continues to defend against Russian forces. Financial Times

On the Front Lines with Ukraine’s Killer Drone Pilot. The Wall Street Journal profiles a Ukrainian drone pilot, "Darwin," who has conducted over 300 strikes on Russian forces. At just 20, Darwin embodies Gen Z traits but operates with deadly precision in Ukraine’s drone warfare. While embedded with him, the newspaper documents the psychological toll Darwin faces as he helps reshape warfare. Darwin acknowledges the moral weight of his actions, recognizing that failing to act could result in Ukrainian deaths. Wall Street Journal 

Russia building unknown structure near Crimean Bridge, Ukraine's Navy says. Russia is constructing an unidentified structure near the Crimean Bridge, according to Ukraine's Navy. While the purpose remains unclear, it could be a defense structure or another crossing, but completion is unlikely before winter. The Crimean Bridge, vital for Russia's military logistics, was damaged by Ukrainian strikes in 2022 and 2023. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, September 26, 2024. The US announced military assistance packages totaling $8 billion for Ukraine, including air defense systems, munitions, and F-16 training. Germany announced a €70 million aid package for Ukraine to provide heat and energy support, along with €400 million in military funding for air defense systems and other equipment. France committed to fully training and equipping a Ukrainian brigade soon. The Russian Federal Security Service struggles to coordinate combat tasks with the Russian military during its operation to expel Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced north of Kharkiv City and Chasiv Yar and east and southeast of Pokrovsk. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: The war is going badly. Ukraine and its allies must change course. The war in Ukraine is faltering, and Ukraine, along with its Western allies, must rethink its strategy. Ukraine needs a credible plan focused on long-term defense and NATO membership rather than total territorial recovery. President Volodymyr Zelensky must redefine victory and seek greater military support, including long-range missiles and air defense systems while boosting domestic weapons production. A firmer commitment to Ukraine’s future in NATO is crucial to deterring Russia and ensuring Ukraine's security and prosperity. Economist

Opinion: Winning the war, the Ukraine way. Jonathan Sweet and Mark Toth argue that Ukraine’s path to victory requires striking Russian targets on Russian soil, an approach that the U.S. has hesitated to support. Despite President Volodymyr Zelensky’s success in expanding Ukraine’s reach with domestically developed weapons, the Biden administration remains cautious. The authors stress that for Ukraine to win, it must disrupt Russia's war machine beyond Ukraine's borders, requiring U.S. backing and long-range strike capabilities. The Hill

Opinion: Who is winning in Ukraine? These maps tell the real story. William Brooks and Michael O’Hanlon highlight the near stalemate in the Ukraine war as both sides struggle to gain ground. Since late 2022, Russia has held around 24,000 to 26,000 square miles of territory – in addition to the nearly 20,000 square miles it had already stolen in Crimea and the east in 2014. Only 1 percent of Ukraine’s land changed hands between 2023 and 2024. Despite Ukraine's push into Russia this summer, taking 500 square miles, the war remains a slow, costly slog. Washington Post

Opinion: Putin will keep escalating his nuclear blackmail until it stops working. Peter Dickinson argues that Vladimir Putin will continue to escalate nuclear blackmail until it no longer intimidates the West. On Wednesday, Putin proposed changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for nuclear strikes. While Ukraine has called Putin’s bluff without provoking a nuclear response, many Western nations remain hesitant, fearing nuclear conflict. Dickinson warns that appeasing Putin’s nuclear threats risks legitimizing nuclear blackmail globally, increasing the danger of nuclear conflict. Atlantic Council

AMERICAS

Blinken set to meet with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Friday in New York, during the U.N. General Assembly session. The meeting comes amid ongoing tensions between the two powers, driven by various disputes over American export controls on sophisticated technology, trade tariffs, Taiwan, human rights, and the conflicts in the Middle East and Europe. Beijing has recently called on Washington to remove additional tariffs on Chinese goods, while the U.S. has expressed concerns about China's relationship with Russia and its stance on Taiwan. Despite these tensions, both nations have kept communication channels open, with a potential call between President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping being planned. U.S. officials have stressed that they are not seeking a rivalry with China, though some analysts suggest the growing competition between the two superpowers resembles a new form of cold war.  Reuters

NYC mayor charged with selling influence to Turkish officials, businesspeople, refuses to resign. New York City Mayor Eric Adams has been indicted on charges of conspiracy, wire fraud, and bribery, accused of allowing Turkish officials and businesspeople to buy his influence through illegal campaign contributions and opulent gifts, including free and discounted travel. The indictment alleges a decade-long corruption scheme that began during Adams' time as an elected official in Brooklyn and continued through his mayoral administration. In return for these bribes, Adams allegedly took actions benefiting Turkey, such as expediting a fire safety inspection for a consulate building and avoiding mention of the Armenian Genocide. Adams has denied any wrongdoing and vowed to stay in office while his lawyers handle the case. Associated Press BBC New York Times 

Two Russian Nationals charged with billion-dollar money laundering scheme, illegal crypto.  In actions to combat Russian money laundering operations, the Justice Department Thursday unsealed an indictment charging Russian national Sergey Ivanov, known online as “Taleon,” with operating multiple money laundering services that catered to cybercriminals and facilitating trade in stolen credit and debit card information.  Russian national Timur Shakhmametov, known online as “JokerStash” and “Vega” was also charged.  Websites associated with three illicit cryptocurrency exchanges were seized.  Justice Department 

EUROPE

Putin draws a nuclear red line for the West.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has extended the conditions under which Russia might resort to nuclear weapons, signaling that Moscow could respond with such force if Ukraine, using Western long-range missiles, strikes deep inside Russian territory. This move has drawn concerns about the conflict escalating into a global war, with the potential involvement of nuclear weapons. While some analysts believe Putin is bluffing, others caution that these statements lower the threshold for nuclear use, especially if Russia perceives a critical threat to its sovereignty. U.S. and Western officials have responded with warnings against such rhetoric, while Ukrainian officials dismissed the threats as nuclear blackmail. Putin's comments coincide with Ukraine's ongoing efforts to secure advanced weapons from Western allies, raising concerns over further escalation.  Reuters

A look into Russia’s nuclear arsenal, and who controls it. According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia possesses the world's largest nuclear arsenal, with approximately 5,580 warheads. Of these, 1,710 strategic warheads are deployed on various platforms, including land-based missiles, submarines, and bombers. Moscow’s nuclear doctrine, which was updated in 2020, allows for nuclear weapon use in response to attacks that threaten the state's existence. President Vladimir Putin recently hinted at the idea of expanding these conditions to include threats from conventional strikes supported by nuclear powers and extended the nuclear umbrella to ally Belarus. The U.S. and other analysts indicate that the Kremlin continues to modernize its nuclear forces, potentially increasing the number of warheads as new missile systems are deployed. While Russia has not conducted a nuclear test since the Soviet era, Putin has suggested it might consider doing so if Washington resumes testing. The authority to launch a nuclear strike rest with Putin, who is always accompanied by a nuclear briefcase that communicates directly with military command. It is believed that Russia’s defense minister, as well as the chief of the general staff, also have such briefcases. In the event of a strategic nuclear attack, Putin could also activate the "Dead Hand" or "Perimetr" system, a doomsday mechanism that could automatically launch the superpower's nuclear arsenal if leadership is incapacitated. The current status of this system is unclear. Reuters

U.S., E.U., Ukraine lambasts controversial Russian nuclear deterrence doctrine. Russia's proposed amendment to its nuclear deterrence doctrine has been met with severe criticism from the West, particularly allies of Ukraine. This update, proposed on Wednesday by President Vladimir Putin, could classify a "massive" aerial attack on Russia, supported by a nuclear state, as a "joint attack," even if the attacker is a non-nuclear state. The proposal appears to target Ukraine, as the embattled nation seeks permission from Western allies to use long-range weapons against its invader. Putin suggested that Moscow might consider nuclear retaliation if it received “reliable information” about a significant aerial or space-based attack crossing its borders. The proposal has been condemned by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who called it "irresponsible," and by the E.U., which labeled it "reckless.” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg commented, saying that Russia’s nuclear rhetoric is “dangerous.” Kyiv also rejected the proposal, dismissing it as “nuclear blackmail.” The Kremlin defended the amendment, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov calling it a "warning signal" to the West about the consequences of participating in an attack on Russia “by various means, and not necessarily nuclear ones.” Peskov clarified that the adjustment to Moscow's nuclear deterrence is in response to increasing tensions near its borders and stressed that there are no plans to expand Russia's nuclear arsenal. Deutsche Welle Reuters Reuters 

Russia extends Baltic ports amid efforts to enhance agricultural exports. Russia, the global leading wheat exporter, is expanding its Baltic Sea ports amid efforts to boost agricultural exports by 50% by 2030. Moscow also seeks to reduce reliance on the Black Sea routes, which have become risky due to the conflict with Ukraine. The new Baltic ports, Vysotsky and Lugaport, are expected to handle up to 15 million tons of grain annually, accounting for a quarter of Russia's projected 60 million tons of grain exports in the 2024/25 season. The nation is targeting new markets in Latin America and Africa, and the Baltic ports offer logistical advantages, especially for shipments outside the Mediterranean region. The expansion is part of Russia's broader strategy to solidify its status as an agricultural superpower. Reuters

Investment in European defense, dual-use tech surging. This year, venture capital investment in European defense technology is expected to reach $1 billion, marking a five-fold increase since 2018. This surge is driven by growing geopolitical tensions, particularly Russia's invasion of Ukraine. According to a Dealroom report, defense-related tech investment in NATO countries and allies has outstripped other sectors by 25%, totaling $3 billion since 2018. Germany, the U.K., and France have seen the majority of this investment, with Germany alone raising more in the past six years than the Nordics, Netherlands, Switzerland, and the U.K. combined. The report notes that VC investment in defense tech across NATO members has quadrupled over the last six years, reaching nearly $5.9 billion, and defense startups in these regions have raised a total of $18 billion. There are currently 370 VC-backed defense tech startups in NATO countries, with a combined value of $161 billion. While Europe has seen significant growth, the U.S. is still the dominant player in the defense tech sector, attracting 83% of global VC investment. However, American investors are increasingly contributing to European defense tech. The report also notes mounting interest in dual-use technologies, which serve both civilian and military purposes, underscoring the role of AI in enhancing defense capabilities and making resilient infrastructure. Tech Crunch 

U.K., Australia to make pact for joint submarine production. Australia and Britain on Thursday agreed to negotiate a bilateral treaty to manufacture a new class of nuclear-powered submarine as part of the AUKUS partnership, which also includes the U.S. Under the AUKUS pact, Canberra will first purchase U.S. Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines within the next decade, and later, Britain and Australia will collaborate to build a new AUKUS-class submarine in both countries. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, speaking to reporters following a meeting in London, said that industrial cooperation and technology transfers will be outlined in the upcoming treaty. British Defense Secretary John Healey noted that the AUKUS partners also agreed to equip P-8A Maritime Patrol Aircraft with British-made Stingray torpedoes for submarine hunting in the Indo-Pacific region. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also mentioned that the AUKUS nations have been enhancing their warfighting capabilities through various experiments and will focus on developing hypersonic technologies and conducting a large-scale drone exercise later this year. Reuters U.S. Department of Defense

THE MIDDLE EAST

Iranians indicted for hacking Trump campaign.  A federal grand jury indicted several Iranians Thursday for hacking Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, Politico reported.  The indictment is expected to be announced Friday.  Internal campaign documents stolen by hackers from the Trump campaign were sent to Politico and activists working for President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign.  A Microsoft investigation released Aug. 8 said Iranian hackers had “sent a spear phishing email in June to a high-ranking official on a presidential campaign. ”Google’s cybersecurity arm has said Iranians tried and failed to hack into Biden’s campaign as well.  On Sept. 18, a joint statement from  the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), said, “Russia, Iran, and China are trying by some measure to exacerbate divisions in U.S. society for their own benefit, and see election periods as moments of vulnerability.”  Reuters Politico

ASIA & OCEANIA

Chinese coast guard claims Philippine vessel conducted resupply mission at Second Thomas Shoal. China's coast guard on Friday reported that the day prior, Manila deployed a civilian ship to deliver supplies to a grounded warship stationed at the Second Thomas Shoal, in the hotly contested South China Sea. Chinese state media, citing the coast guard, said the resupply mission aligned with a temporary agreement between the two nations, which was reached in July after several confrontations near the shoal. The Philippine armed forces confirmed that the resupply mission to the naval ship Sierra Madre was supported by the coast guard, ensuring the delivery of essential supplies and facilitating troop rotation. Manila reaffirmed its commitment to supporting its soldiers stationed in the West Philippine Sea. Reuters

Taiwan detects, observes renewed Chinese military threats. The Taiwanese defense ministry has raised concerns over a surge in Chinese military activity around the island, accusing Beijing of instability that poses a severe challenge. Over two consecutive days, Taipei detected large-scale Chinese military maneuvers, including joint combat patrols involving 29 aircraft and warships. The day prior, 43 Chinese military aircraft were observed, with some flying near Taiwan's southern and eastern coasts without entering its airspace. A security source revealed that the Chinese military's actions included simulated attacks in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, aimed at practicing strategies to prevent foreign intervention in a potential, regional conflict. Beijing also practiced air refueling operations and conducted air drills to establish “air dominance” near the self-governing island. Taiwan's defense ministry criticized China’s recent live-fire drills as an attempt to bolster military strength while feigning a desire for dialogue. The Taiwanese presidential office expressed worries over these exercises, urging China to exercise restraint. Reuters 

U.S. officials verify reports that China’s newest nuclear-powered submarine sank in dock this year.  U.S. officials have confirmed that in May or June of this year, a new Chinese nuclear-powered attack submarine sank at a shipyard near Wuhan, marking a significant hitch in China's naval ambitions. The pier side incident, which Chinese authorities attempted to cover up and still have not publicly acknowledged, involved a Zhou-class submarine, the first of its kind. The submarine, designed for enhanced maneuverability, was undergoing final preparations before its first voyage when it sank. Large cranes were later brought in to salvage the vessel, but it will likely take months before it will be seaworthy. The submarine was likely carrying nuclear fuel, but the extent of any radiation risk remains unclear. U.S. officials do not know if there were casualties or if the environment was tested for radiation. The incident underscores potential issues with training, equipment quality, and internal oversight within Beijing's military and defense industry. In recent years, China has been rapidly expanding its navy, including its fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, to achieve maritime superiority. This setback, however, is expected to delay these plans. The sinking is reminiscent of similar costly incidents in U.S. naval history, such as the 1969 sinking of the USS Guitarro. Wall Street Journal Reuters CNN The Guardian 

North Korean nuclear status is a 'closed issue,’ says Russia’s FM. The Kremlin considers the idea of "denuclearizing" North Korea to be a "closed issue," according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Responding to a question on the foreign ministry's website, Lavrov stated that Moscow views Pyongyang's reliance on nuclear weapons as essential for its defense. He stressed that, given the U.S.'s "expanded nuclear deterrence" with South Korea and Japan, the term "denuclearization" has “lost all meaning” for North Korea. Russia has strengthened diplomatic and military ties with the reclusive nation since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, though both countries deny any illicit arms trade. Lavrov denounced Western sanctions against North Korea as "senseless" and affirmed the Kremlin’s commitment to standing with Pyongyang against common adversaries, continuing to build their friendship and cooperation. Reuters 

North Korea may have capability to produce double-digit number of nuclear weapons.  North Korea possesses enough plutonium and uranium to produce a significant number of nuclear weapons, potentially in the double digits, according to a South Korean lawmaker who cited Seoul’s National Intelligence Service. The spy agency also anticipates that Pyongyang might conduct a seventh nuclear test after the U.S. presidential election on November 5. A July report by the Federation of American Scientists estimated that North Korea could have produced enough fissile material for up to 90 nuclear warheads, though it likely has around 50 assembled. The lawmaker noted that a recent North Korean state media report on Kim Jong UN's visit to a uranium enrichment facility has been interpreted as a message to the U.S. ahead of the upcoming election, and possibly an attempt to boost domestic confidence amid a grim economic state. Reuters 

AFRICA

Sudanese army launches major operation to retake territory in capital. Sudan's military launched a massive offensive in Khartoum on Thursday to reclaim territory lost during a brutal civil war that began 17 months ago between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the army chief, and his rival, Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). A senior Sudanese military official said the army conducted both artillery and airstrikes against several zones in the capital that were under the control of the paramilitary forces. Soldiers were deployed to the ground, and reportedly managed to secure two bridges that link Khartoum to Omdurman and Bahri. The RSF, however, informed Reuters it had foiled the military’s attempt to take the two bridges. Broadcasted footage showed dark smoke rising above the city, along with the sounds of clashes, gunfire and heavy artillery. Residents reported hearing loud explosions from the battle. Amid the ongoing violence, General al-Burhan blamed the RSF for the war's devastation during a speech at the U.N. General Assembly, while also accusing them of receiving support from foreign nations. The RSF denied the accusations and condemned al-Burhan's leadership. Meanwhile, the conflict has resulted in widespread suffering, with millions displaced and facing acute hunger, a cholera outbreak, and reports of war crimes. New York Times Associated Press Reuters 

Congo, standing before East Africa court, again accuses Rwanda of backing rebels. An East African regional court on Thursday began hearings on a case filed by Democratic Republic of the Congo against Rwanda, accusing it of violating Congo's sovereignty by deploying soldiers to support rebels in the embattled nation’s east. The region is plagued by violence as over 120-armed groups clash in a struggle for control of land and resources. Congo has repeatedly claimed that Rwandan forces are involved in war crimes alongside the M23 rebel group, which has made significant advances in the area. U.N. experts in July supported these allegations, approximating that between 3,000 and 4,000 Rwanda government troops are stationed in eastern Congo. The case is being heard by the East African Court of Justice, a U.N.-ratified regional court established under a 1999 treaty. Congo seeks to hold Rwanda accountable for atrocities and violations of international law, and to secure reparations for victims. Rwanda, however, questioned the court’s jurisdiction and pointed out procedural errors. The court will review the objections and deliver a ruling later. Associated Press Al Jazeera  

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

117 countries struck by ransomware incidents last year in 73% year-over-year increase, says task force. Data collected by the Ransomware Task Force, a consortium of cybersecurity experts and officials, shows that over 6,500 ransomware attacks were recorded globally in 2023, affecting 117 countries—a major increase from the previous year. The number of incidents rose by 73% year-over-year, with spikes in June and July linked to the exploitation of a popular file transfer tool. The task force, which used information from eCrime.ch, found that 66 different ransomware groups were active last year, up from 58 in 2022. South Asia and South America saw the largest increases in attacks, particularly in countries like Iran, Pakistan, Brazil, and India, with significant incidents targeting critical sectors such as healthcare, IT, and government offices. LockBit and AlphV, two prominent ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) groups, were responsible for the majority of these attacks. Despite some doubts about the accuracy of claims made by ransomware gangs on leak sites, the data aligns with reports from the FBI and Chainalysis, indicating that 2023 was a record year for both ransomware complaints and earnings. The task force expressed concern over the increasing “scale, frequency, and complexity” of ransomware incidents, noting that the effectiveness and profitability of the RaaS model have continued to grow. The task force also noted that only half of its 2021 recommendations have been implemented, with significant gaps remaining in preventing ransom payments and supporting affected organizations. The report called for more decisive government action to combat the threat. The Record 

Gamaredon: Russia-backed hacker group still ‘most engaged’ threat actor against Ukraine. The Russia-backed cyberespionage group known as Gamaredon, also called Armageddon, has enhanced its capabilities in Ukraine and remains the most active state-sponsored hacker group in the country, according to a report by researchers at the cybersecurity firm ESET. Active for over a decade and likely operating from Crimea, Gamaredon is believed to be directed by Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB). While Gamaredon primarily targets Ukrainian government institutions, it has expanded its focus since Russia's invasion of Ukraine to also include attempted attacks on Kyiv’s NATO allies, including Poland, Bulgaria, Latvia, and Lithuania. Researchers found over a thousand unique devices in Ukraine targeted by the group in 2022 and 2023. Despite introducing new tools, Gamaredon's methods remain technically unsophisticated, with the group showing little concern about being detected. However, they work hard to avoid being blocked by security systems, frequently updating their tools and changing their obfuscation methods. The group, which mainly gains access to victims’ systems through spearphishing campaigns, uses custom malware to infect Word documents and USB drives. Kyiv has labeled Gamaredon as one of the most dangerous cyber threats during its ongoing conflict with Russia. The group has also attempted to attack a NATO country's petroleum refining company and had two members sanctioned by the European Council for attacks on the EU. ESET suggests that Gamaredon’s focus will continue to be on Ukraine without significant changes in its targeting strategy. The Record

FBI helping Dallas suburb address attempted ransomware attack. Richardson, Texas, a large Dallas suburb with a population of 120,000 people, experienced a ransomware attack on Wednesday morning that prompted assistance from the FBI. During the attack, hackers managed to access government servers and attempted to encrypt files. However, automated security systems quickly responded, limiting the impact to a small number of files. City officials have shut down internal server access as a precaution, and the specific data compromised is still being assessed. Richardson is now working on restoring systems by replacing equipment and recovering data from backups. Essential external services, such as 911, police, and online payments, remain operational. The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security have been involved in the response, but details about the ransomware gang or any ransom demand have not been disclosed. The timeline for full system restoration remains uncertain. This cyberattack follows similar ransomware incidents in the Dallas area, including a major attack on Dallas in May 2023 and another on Dallas County in October, which leaked resident data. The Record 

Kuwait’s Health Ministry recovering after cyberattack disrupts hospitals, healthcare app.  The Health Ministry of Kuwait is restoring systems following a cyberattack that took down systems at several of the nation’s hospitals as well as the Sahel healthcare app. As of Thursday afternoon, the Ministry of Health's website remained down, but essential healthcare services were maintained. The government has restored systems at key facilities, including the Kuwait Cancer Control center, using backups. Although the hackers were prevented from accessing critical databases, the ministry shut down some systems to implement necessary updates and improve security. A probe revealed how the hackers infiltrated the systems, and the ministry is working with government security agencies to contain the breach. No ransomware group has claimed responsibility, and there's no clear timeline for full system restoration. This attack follows similar incidents in Kuwait, including a ransomware attack on the Ministry of Finance by the Rhysida gang a year ago. The incident is part of a broader global trend, with ransomware attacks hitting a record number of countries in 2023. The Record 

SpaceX to launch Crew-9 astronaut mission for NASA on Sept. 28. SpaceX is set to launch the Crew-9 astronaut mission for NASA on Saturday, September 28. The mission will lift off from the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida, marking the first crewed launch from this site. Crew-9 is part of NASA's Commercial Crew Program and will send NASA astronaut Nick Hague and Russian cosmonaut Aleksandr Gorbunov to the International Space Station (ISS) for a five-month mission. They will return to Earth in February, alongside NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore. The mission was delayed from its initial September 26 launch date due to Hurricane Helene, which impacted Florida's Gulf Coast. Space.com NASA 

REPORT INFO

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion inThe Cipher Brief