Report for Friday, October 18, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Friday, October 18, 2024

Hezbollah pledges to escalate war with Israel

Zelensky: We need NATO or nukes … and we want NATO

‘First step to world war’: Zelensky says 10,000 North Koreans could join Russian forces

Seoul says Pyongyang’s troop deployment to Russia presents 'grave security threat.’

Biden aims to secure his global legacy in Germany farewell visit

China's Xi, India’s Modi to travel to Russia for BRICS summit.

U.S. charges Indian government employee in plot to kill American citizen

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Might Sinwar Killing Lead to Peace in Gaza?The Cipher Brief 

Sinwar is Dead. What Does it Mean for Power Dynamics in the Region?  The Cipher Brief

Why the West Keeps Misreading Russia — and Why That is Dangerous  The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Yahya Sinwar’s last hours in Rafah. At 10:00 a.m. Wednesday Israel time, an Israeli soldier spotted a suspicious person entering a building in Rafah’s Tel Sultan neighborhood, The Times of Israel reported.  He alerted his battalion, which opened fire on the building. At 3:00 p.m. Wednesday, a drone saw three figures fleeing the building.  Two went into another building, and a third –Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ infamous leader, as it turned out – ducked into a third structure. IDF tanks and other forces opened fire on both buildings. The third man – Sinwar – threw two grenades, forcing the soldiers back, but an Israeli surveillance drone flew inside and videoed him. Wounded, his face obscured, the man hurled a wooden stick at the drone. The Israelis blasted the building with a missile, tank shells and gunfire until nothing in it survived.  On Thursday morning, The Times of Israel reported, soldiers searching the building found the dead man’s body and realized he looked like Sinwar, whose caterpillar eyebrows and hollow cheeks are now world-famous. The Shin Bet took DNA and cut off part of a finger to send to the lab for a fingerprint, according to The Times of Israel account. CNN reported that Israeli officials sent word to President Joe Biden that Sinwar might be dead around 5:30 a.m. Washington time, 12:30 pm Tel Aviv time. Later Thursday, the DNA analysis, fingerprint and dental records confirmed that the corpse was indeed Sinwar’s. According to the Jerusalem Post, IDF Spokesperson R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari said, “We found him with a vest, a pistol, and 40,000 shekels.”  An Israeli journalist added a few more details:  Sinwar was found with Mentos, money, an AK-47, a lighter, and a UNRWA employee ID. Financial Times New York Times Jerusalem Post Jerusalem Post Times of Israel CNN

Will Israel take Sinwar’s death as a win?   The death of Yahya Sinwar is a grave loss for Hamas, but the militant group isn’t about to collapse entirely. “The war isn’t over,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday night.  He said the fighting would not end until the 101 remaining hostages had been freed. “We will continue with all our strength until the return home of all your loved ones, who are our loved ones,” he said in a recorded video statement. “This is our highest commitment. This is my highest commitment.”  U.S. officials renewed their efforts to make a deal.  “It’s time for this war to end and bring these hostages home,” President Joe Biden said. “I talked with [Netanyahu] about that. We’re going to work out what, what is the day after now. How do we secure Gaza and move on.” The Financial Times reported that officials are considering offering a “pause” in the offensive in return for the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza and a guarantee of safety for Hamas fighters who freed the hostages, and a resumption of talks to end the war.  Netanyahu urged militants to release hostages and be allowed to live, but without mentioning a ceasefire. He is under pressure from the U.S. and Israel’s military and intelligence services to negotiate a cease-fire that frees the hostages. A deal with Hamas would be opposed by Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition and many in his base. Financial Times  Wall Street Journal  New York Times Associated Press BBC 

Hezbollah pledges to escalate war with Israel.  Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group said Friday  it was looking ahead to “the transition to a new and escalating phase in the confrontation with Israel.".  "The spirit of resistance will be strengthened" following the death of Sinwar, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held separate phone calls on Thursday with leaders in Saudi Arabia and Qatar aimed at ending the conflict in the Middle East, the State Department said. Reuters

E.U. foreign policy head criticizes U.S. decision to give Israel one month to improve Gaza situation. E.U. foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Thursday seemed to chide the U.S. for giving Israel one month to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza, arguing that too many people would die in that time. He pointed at the ongoing, devastatingly high death toll, saying the delay of one month was too long. This comes after American officials warned Israel to take action to improve conditions in Gaza or face restrictions on military aid. The situation in Gaza remains dire, with over 42,000 Palestinians killed since the conflict began a year ago, and the E.U. is split on its response. Some leaders, such as Ireland's Prime Minister, are pushing for more action to bring about a ceasefire, while others, like Germany's Chancellor, continue to focus on the importance of supporting Israel's security. Reuters

U.N. agency says Gaza economy nearing total collapse as unemployment reaches 80%.  The International Labour Organization (ILO) on Thursday reported that unemployment in Gaza has surged to nearly 80% in the year since the Israel-Hamas war began, with the Palestinian enclave's economy approaching a near collapse. Economic output in Gaza has shrunk by 85%, pushing almost all of its 2.3 million residents into poverty. The ILO described the conflict’s devastation on Gaza's economy and labor market as unprecedented, while the West Bank's economy also saw a contraction of 21.7%, with unemployment averaging 34.9%. Before the conflict, Gaza's unemployment rate was 45.3%. This devastating economic impact extends to the West Bank, where Israeli movement restrictions and trade barriers have also severely affected the economy. The ILO warns that the socio-economic damage will be “felt for generations to come.” Reuters International Labour Organization 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump Blames Zelensky, Not Putin, for Ukraine War. In a podcast interview published Thursday, former President Donald Trump blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for Russia’s Feb. 24, 2022, invasion, stating, "He should never have let that war start. That war’s a loser.” Trump, while expressing sympathy for Ukrainians, criticized Zelensky and President Joe Biden, claiming Biden “instigated that war.” Trump has consistently suggested that the war would have been easily avoided if he had remained in office because of his great relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Russia has never had a president that they respect so much,” he has said. He reiterated his admiration for Zelensky’s ability to secure aid – “one of the greatest salesmen I’ve ever seen” – but questioned the rationale for such extensive U.S. support. This is not the first time Trump has appeared to suggest Zelensky is at fault for the war. For example, during a Mint Hill, N.C. campaign event, Trump said, “We continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refuses to make a deal.” Trump’s remarks fuel concerns about his approach to Ukraine if re-elected. New York Times Washington Post The Independent

Zelensky: We need NATO or nukes … and we want NATO. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Thursday that Ukraine may pursue nuclear weapons if it is not granted NATO membership, highlighting the country’s vulnerability after its 1994 denuclearization. At the European Council Summit in Brussels, Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine must be part of NATO or develop a nuclear deterrent. “Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, which will serve as protection, or it must be part of some kind of alliance. Apart from NATO, we do not know of such an effective alliance,” Zelensky said. He said he made this point to Donald Trump during their meeting in New York in September. “I believe Trump heard me and said that it was a fair argument,” Zelensky said. The Ukrainian leader walked back these comments at a Thursday press conference with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, saying: “We are not building nuclear weapons. What I meant is that today there is no stronger security guarantee for us besides NATO membership.” After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine inherited one of the largest nuclear arsenals in the world. In 1994, it agreed to dismantle its nuclear stockpile under the Budapest Memorandum in exchange for security assurances from the West, including Russia. PoliticoEU Kyiv Independent Newsweek

‘Winter is coming,’ Zelensky warns as Putin threatens Ukraine’s power grid. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s power grid could make the upcoming winter devastating. Speaking in Brussels alongside European Council President Charles Michel on Thursday, Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine has strengthened its defenses but needs more air defense support to prevent further energy infrastructure damage. He noted that Russia has destroyed 70 percent of Ukraine's electricity production capacity. PoliticoEU

Russia Launches 'Massive' Air Attack On Ukraine, Official Says. Russia launched one of its largest waves of drone strikes on Ukraine early on Friday, the head on Kyiv's military administration, Serhiy Popko, reported. "Russian troops carried out one of the most massive drone attacks on the civilian population and infrastructure of Ukraine. Enemy drones also threatened Kyiv. But thanks to the coordinated work of the defense forces, all drones moving toward the capital were neutralized," Popko wrote on Telegram. There were no immediate reports of casualties during the attack on Kyiv, which lasted for more than 4 1/2 hours, Popko said. Ukraine's air force said attacks targeted the Kyiv, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsya, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Poltava regions. RFE/RL

EU and NATO offer Zelensky qualified support for his victory plan. During his Thursday visit to Brussels, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented his victory plan, calling for an unconditional NATO invitation and expanded military support. However, NATO leaders, including Secretary General Mark Rutte, remained cautious, stating that membership might only be feasible after the war. Given its reliance on Western weapons, Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine is already functionally part of NATO. While some European Union and NATO leaders expressed support, resistance from Hungary and Slovakia stalled progress on releasing frozen Russian assets and advancing Ukraine's NATO bid. Zelensky reiterated the urgent need for unity to end the war and rebuild Ukraine. PoliticoEU Washington Post The Guardian Reuters

Zelensky's Victory Plan Finds Doubters In Kyiv, but Wins Zaluzhny’s Support. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's victory plan to end the war with Russia has been met with skepticism in Kyiv. The plan calls for an immediate NATO invitation, allowing Ukraine to target Russian military sites with Western weapons and deploying non-nuclear forces to prevent future attacks. While officials support the plan, many Ukrainians doubt its feasibility. Concerns about corruption, manpower shortages, and reliance on foreign aid persist. Some believe Ukraine faces deeper issues that the plan alone cannot resolve. One veteran criticized men who have fled the country rather than staying to fight. "There are not enough people. The Americans and NATO will not give us people. They can help us with equipment, with money, but not with people," he said. The former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army and now Ukraine's ambassador to the United Kingdom, Valery Zaluzhny, described the victory plan as necessary. "Without a common, global strategy," he said, "it will be difficult for Ukraine to do anything." He said that “declaring yet another freeze in the situation with Ukraine will not work. We want to have guarantees of security for ourselves and our children.” Barron’s Associated Press

Zaluzhny says Ukraine's draft system is burdened with Soviet heritage. At a Thursday Chatham House event in London, Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.K. and former military commander Valery Zaluzhny said that Soviet-era influences still burden Ukraine's mobilization system. Despite Ukraine's urgent need for more troops as the war with Russia drags on, Zaluzhny said, "We will be able to change that only when we have enough time... to bring up a whole generation which, without any interference from the state, will take up arms and go defend their home,” the ambassador said. Zaluzhny warned that Russia would exploit tensions in Ukraine’s mobilization efforts through propaganda, complicating recruitment amid social stress and economic difficulties caused by the ongoing war. Kyiv Independent

They Came for the Music. They Left with Draft Officers for Ukraine’s Army. At a sold-out Okean Elzy concert last week in Kyiv, Ukrainian draft officers checked the documents of male attendees exiting the venue, detaining those not registered for military service as required by law. About six million men eligible for military service—16% of Ukraine’s population—have not updated their information with draft offices. The stepped-up enforcement extends to other cities, part of intensified efforts to bolster military recruitment amid the war with Russia. Ukraine faces a dire shortage of able-bodied recruits to sustain its defense against a numerically superior Russian army. The lack of registration among millions hampers the military’s capacity to reinforce frontline units, leading to reliance on older, poorly trained or unfit soldiers. The crisis highlights a division long brewing in society between the men who fight and those who don’t. “Either you are a citizen and fulfill the requirements of the times, or you are a dodger,” said Capt. Oleh Voitsekhovsky, who is fighting in eastern Ukraine. Problems include corruption that enables men to avoid service through bribes. As the manpower shortage has intensified, so has the public debate. In a poll by the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center in June, 46 percent said there is "no shame in evading military service," while 29 percent said that there is. New York Times RFE/RL

Russia Pressures Central Asian Prisoners to Fight In Ukraine As 'Expendable Force.' Russia is pressuring Central Asian prisoners, including many from Kyrgyzstan, to fight in Ukraine as an expendable force. Inmates are offered parole, money, and Russian citizenship in exchange for combat service, but promises are often unfulfilled. Prisoners are sent to the front lines with minimal training and forced to fight even when wounded. Conditions in Russian prisons have become inhumane, with detainees suffering harsh treatment to coerce them into joining the military. Thousands of prisoners, particularly from Central Asia, have been recruited, many of whom have died or become severely disabled in combat. RFE/RL

‘First step to world war’: Zelensky says 10,000 North Koreans could join Russian forces. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday that Ukrainian intelligence indicates North Korea is preparing to send 10,000 soldiers to support Russia in its war against Ukraine. Speaking from Brussels, Zelensky warned that this foreign involvement is a "first step to the world war." NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said the allies “have no evidence that North Korean soldiers are involved in the fight. But we do know that North Korea is supporting Russia in many ways, weapons supplies, technological supplies, innovation, to support them in the war effort. And that is highly worrying.” Zelensky urged Western allies to impose new sanctions on North Korea. Associated Press Reuters

North Korean troops in Ukraine: How powerful is Pyongyang's army? North Korea boasts the world’s fourth-largest military, with 1.3 million active troops and an additional 600,000 in reserve. Despite using outdated equipment, the sheer size of its forces compensates for technological shortfalls. North Korea also spends much of its GDP on defense, with estimates suggesting up to 36.3% was allocated to the military in 2023. Its nuclear program remains a formidable asset, with six nuclear tests and ballistic missiles capable of reaching the U.S. The possible deployment of 10,000 North Korean troops to aid Russia in Ukraine underscores Pyongyang's global military reach. Euronews

US imposes sanctions on Chinese companies accused of helping make Russian attack drones. On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on two Chinese companies, Xiamen Limbach Aircraft Engine Co. and Redlepus Vector Industry, for their role in supplying Russia with long-range attack drones used in Ukraine. These drones, produced in collaboration with Russian defense firms, have caused mass casualties and destroyed critical infrastructure. Russian company TSK Vektor and its director were also sanctioned for assisting drone shipments. This marks the first direct U.S. sanctions on Chinese firms for providing complete weapons systems to Russia. China has denied the allegations. Associated Press BBC Al Jazeera

Russian airfields in Ukraine’s crosshairs with F-16 strikes. Ukraine can target Russian military airfields with the F-16 fighter jets it has received from the Netherlands, Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans said at Thursday's NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels. These jets, part of a more extensive fleet of 79 F-16s pledged by Western allies, are actively involved in combat operations. “International law doesn’t stop at the border or even 100 kilometers from the border,” Brekelmans remarked. “So we’re allowing Ukraine to use these F-16s for self-defense, which could include intercepting Russian missiles or targeting, for example, airfields on Russian soil.” Equipped with advanced weaponry like AGM-88 HARM and Storm Shadow missiles, Ukraine aims to enhance its long-range strike capabilities against Russian infrastructure. Bulgarian Military

As Ukraine builds better drones, do American firms still have a role? Ukraine's growing ability to build its own drones is reducing its reliance on American-made systems. President Volodymyr Zelensky aims to produce millions of drones annually, including high-end models capable of deep strikes into Russia. While U.S. firms like Skydio and Anduril have provided thousands of drones and still play a role, Ukraine needs less Western support. American companies are shifting to offer complementary technologies, such as counter-jamming solutions, to help Ukrainian drones withstand Russian electronic warfare. Defense News

Ukraine Has Resisted Russia in One Key Town for Months. Its Hold Is Starting to Break. Russian forces have broken through a critical defense line near Chasiv Yar, a strategic hilltop town in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. Ukrainian troops have defended the area for months, preventing Russian advances across a canal that acts as a natural barrier. However, recent Russian assaults have breached two points on the canal, threatening to overrun the town, which could open a pathway to the rest of Donetsk. Ukraine's defense of Chasiv Yar is vital to maintaining control of the region, but the battle is costly. Despite losses, Ukraine must hold the town to demonstrate its ability to defend strategically important locations and retain the confidence of its population and Western allies. Russian forces have used drone and artillery bombardments to wear down Ukraine’s defenses, while both sides suffer heavy casualties. Wall Street Journal

Russian troops fight desperate battles for Ukraine’s east ahead of winter. Russian forces are intensifying efforts in eastern Ukraine, prioritizing the capture of Toretsk and nearby areas before winter makes maneuvering difficult. Despite heavy casualties, Russia continues small-scale assaults and artillery bombardments to probe Ukrainian defenses. Ukrainian officials report Russia's increased reliance on civilian disguises and armored vehicles. Russian air superiority has devastated Ukrainian positions with glide bombs, while Ukraine counters with drones, air defense systems and artillery. Al Jazeera

Orban calls Zelensky's victory plan 'terrifying,' urges negotiations with Russia. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Thursday called Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky's victory plan "terrifying" and urged the European Union to shift from supporting war to seeking peace talks with Russia. Orban criticized Zelensky's call for more long-range weapons and NATO involvement, labeling it dangerous. He reiterated that Ukraine is "losing" and pushed for negotiations with Russia. Hungary has consistently blocked aid to Kyiv and promoted diplomacy with Moscow. Kyiv Independent Bloomberg

It Happened Again. Russian Troops Gathered for Training. A Ukrainian Drone Watched—And A Ukrainian Rocket Streaked Down. A Ukrainian drone from the Black Forest group spotted Russian troops training in the open in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, within range of Ukraine’s High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). The drone relayed coordinates, leading to a strike by a 660-pound M30/31 rocket packed with bomblets, killing many Russian soldiers. This marks the seventh such raid on Russian trainees since February. The strike highlights Ukraine's growing precision strike capabilities, using drones like the Ukrainian-made Shark to coordinate with HIMARS for targeted, long-range attacks against Russian forces close to the front lines. Forbes

Ukrainian Soldier Recounts U.S. Man’s Torture in Russian Detention. Ukrainian soldier Ihor Shyshko, who was detained in Russia for two years, described the brutal treatment of 72-year-old American citizen Stephen Hubbard, whom he was imprisoned alongside. Captured in 2022, Hubbard was beaten, starved, and tortured, including being subjected to electric shocks. Held in two Russian prisons, he suffered the same mistreatment as Ukrainian prisoners. Hubbard, frail and in poor health, was accused of fighting for Ukraine, but Shyshko described him as a civilian unable to wield a weapon. Shyshko fears for Hubbard’s survival as he continues to endure extreme physical and mental abuse in Russian detention. Moscow Times

Zelensky signs bill on customs reform into law. President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a customs reform bill Thursday aimed at curbing corruption within Ukraine’s State Customs Service, which has been criticized as a hub of tax evasion and smuggling. Effective Nov. 1, the law introduces measures such as selecting a new head via an independent committee, conducting audits by external experts, and vetting current employees. This reform, driven by pressure from Western partners and business groups, is crucial for Ukraine’s European Union accession and is expected to help reduce the estimated $2.4-$3 billion in annual customs losses while addressing Ukraine's $35 billion wartime budget deficit. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine stresses nuclear energy safety at summit meeting. Andriy Yermak, chief of staff to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, spoke online Thursday to a nuclear safety meeting held in France. He called for greater efforts to uphold nuclear safety due to Russia's occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which has become militarized and poses risks. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, who hosted the meeting, stressed the importance of addressing security concerns. The meeting involved 70 countries and organizations. Reuters

European Council says Russian assets should remain frozen until end of war, payment of reparations. The European Council announced Thursday that Russian assets frozen during the war in Ukraine will remain immobilized until Moscow ends the conflict and pays reparations. Damage to Ukraine's infrastructure, estimated at $486 billion, underscores the need for financial support. The EU holds two-thirds of the $300 billion in Russian sovereign assets and plans to use windfall profits for Ukraine’s reconstruction. A €35 billion loan is planned for Ukraine, with G7 countries pledging €45 billion in total aid. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, Oct. 17. Russian sources reported the killing of Nikita Klenkov, deputy commander of Russia's Special Operations Forces (SSO) Training Center near Moscow, believed to be a contract killing. Klenkov fought in the war in Ukraine and was a high-ranking officer of the Russian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GRU). The European Union condemned Russian executions of an estimated 93 Ukrainian prisoners of war on the battlefield and noted that at least 177 Ukrainian POWs have died in Russian captivity since February 2022.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Trump thinks Ukraine just let Russia do it. Philip Bump critiques Donald Trump’s remarks suggesting that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could have prevented Russia’s invasion. Trump implied Zelensky allowed the war to start, which Bump argues reinforces Trump’s consistent deference to Russian President Vladimir Putin and a worldview that favors dominance over negotiation. Bump notes that Trump's position aligns with victim-blaming, drawing parallels to how weaker parties are expected to submit to stronger forces. Trump’s claims reflect a belief that the powerful are justified in taking what they want without consideration for international norms or sovereignty. Washington Post

Opinion: Trading territories means trading people. Danylo Mokryk argues that freezing the war by conceding Ukrainian territories to Russia would only perpetuate the suffering of those under Russian occupation. He highlights how Russian propaganda obscures the reality of atrocities, including torture, abductions, and murder. Mokryk emphasizes that true peace and justice can only be achieved through the liberation of these regions. Any "peace plan" that leaves territories under Russian control would entrench systematic terror and prevent accountability for war crimes condemning civilians to continued oppression. Kyiv Independent

Opinion: Russia’s Payments Crisis amid Its War against Ukraine. William E. Pomeranz highlights Russia's deepening financial crisis amid its ongoing war against Ukraine. Facing a liquidity shortage, Russia struggles with limited access to foreign currency, worsened by China’s reluctance to support Moscow due to fears of secondary sanctions. Russia’s Central Bank has imposed a moratorium on hard currency transfers and increased interest rates to 19%. Foreign banks like Raiffeisen are also exiting Russia, and oil revenues have sharply declined. Pomeranz argues that Russia’s financial difficulties will only worsen. Wilson Center

Opinion: How Ukraine's energy sector will get through the winter — or not. Mark Temnycky analyzes Russia’s missile strikes that have severely damaged Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Ukraine faces a sharp decline in energy production, from 36 gigawatts before the 2022 invasion to 18 gigawatts today. Rebuilding efforts are hampered by insufficient anti-aircraft systems, financial constraints, and Russian attacks. Experts are divided on solutions, with some focusing on nuclear energy or adding a few gigawatts through rebuilding, while others suggest decentralizing energy with household batteries, power generators, and renewable sources like wind and solar. Ukraine’s synchronization with the European grid offers stability, but time and resources remain critical challenges. EUObserver

AMERICAS

Biden aims to secure his global legacy in Germany farewell visit. President Joe Biden touched down in Berlin on Thursday for what could be his final trip to Europe as president, where Germany will honor him for his leadership in supporting Ukraine. Biden will meet with several European leaders, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, to discuss ongoing support for Ukraine amidst concerns that Washington may reduce its involvement in the transatlantic alliance, especially if GOP nominee Donald Trump returns to office. They are also expected to touch on the Middle East conflicts. Biden's visit is perceived as an opportunity to solidify his legacy of strengthening NATO and defending democracies against authoritarianism; he has been a strong advocate for Ukraine, visiting Kyiv during the war and asserting that the world must not turn a blind eye to Russian aggression. However, there is uncertainty about the future of U.S. foreign policy, with European leaders concerned about Trump's "America First" approach, which could disrupt the alliance and weaken support for Ukraine. They are also uncertain about a potential Kamala Harris presidency, as she has less foreign policy experience than Biden. This trip to Germany is both a chance for Biden to push for further support for Ukraine and a symbolic farewell to his European counterparts, with whom he has built strong relationships during his presidency. Washington Post Reuters Politico Deutsche Welle 

Biden admin loosens space-related export restrictions to allies. The Biden administration has relaxed export restrictions on certain satellite and spacecraft-related items, making it easier for U.S. commercial space companies to sell to allies and partners. This move benefits companies like SpaceX, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and L3Harris Technologies by reducing regulatory burdens while still protecting national security and foreign policy interests. The new rules will allow items related to remote sensing spacecraft and space logistics to be shipped without licenses to countries such as Australia, Canada, and the U.K., supporting technology-sharing initiatives like the AUKUS security pact. Less sensitive spacecraft parts will no longer require licenses for export to over 40 countries, including Japan, South Korea, and most E.U. nations. However, restrictions remain for countries like China and Russia. The changes are expected to bolster the U.S. space industry, with potential for expanding SpaceX’s global presence, including a proposed Starship test landing in Australia. Reuters

“Deep and authentic:” U.S. ambassador to Mexico says bilateral relations still going strong. U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar on Thursday reaffirmed that there has been no pause in the strong relationship between the U.S. and Mexican governments, two nations which share an extensive history of cooperation on economic, security, and anti-drug trafficking matters. This statement from Salazar comes amid Mexico’s transition to the new government of President Claudia Sheinbaum, with both neighbors expressing a commitment to ongoing collaboration. Salazar also highlighted U.S. cooperation with Mexico following the July 25 arrest of Sinaloa cartel co-founder Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada. Although there were tensions in August when Mexico's former president suggested a pause in relations due to criticism of judicial reforms, Salazar reiterated the strength and authenticity of the partnership. Reuters

Three American nationals, two others detained in Venezuela for alleged terrorism. Venezuelan Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello on Thursday announced the detainment of five more foreigners, including three U.S. citizens, for purported involvement in a plot to destabilize the country following the disputed July presidential election. Cabello, who did not disclose when the arrests took place, provided no evidence to support claims of their connection to terrorist activities, or to alleged ties to U.S. intelligence. The group of individuals includes a Peruvian, a Bolivian, and three Americans. This development follows previous arrests in mid-September of foreigners accused of plotting to assassinate President Nicolás Maduro. In the past, Venezuela has used imprisoned Americans to negotiate concessions with Washington. The U.S. State Department said that it is seeking more information on the latest detentions. Associated Press Reuters 

EUROPE

Moscow is testing readiness of nuclear missile unit, reports media. Media agencies, citing the Russian defense ministry, have reported that Moscow is conducting a combat readiness test of a unit equipped with Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles in the Tver region, northwest of Moscow. The Yars missile system, capable of delivering multiple nuclear warheads, has a range of up to 11,000 km (6,835 miles) and can be deployed in silos, or mounted on mobile launchers. According to Interfax, the unit will practice how to move Yars missiles in the field over distances of up 62 miles under camouflage, and how to shield them from air attacks, as well as enemy sabotage groups. This exercise comes amid a string of nuclear drills Russia has conducted throughout the year, which analysts believe are signals to discourage Western involvement in the Ukraine war. The current test coincides with NATO's annual nuclear exercise and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's unveiling of a "victory plan." Reuters

China's Xi, India’s Modi to travel to Russia for BRICS summit. Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to attend the upcoming 16th BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, from October 22 to 24, as announced by the Chinese foreign ministry. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will also attend the gathering. During the visit, Xi will participate in leaders' meetings and dialogues with other experts, focusing on the international situation. The ministry stressed that China is committed to promoting cooperation within BRICS, aiming to strengthen unity and self-reliance in the Global South and to work together for global peace and development. Reuters Economic Times

U.K. sanctions demonstrate that Russia’s energy sector skills irritate London, says Moscow.  The Russian Foreign Ministry has criticized new British sanctions on Russian oil and gas tankers, suggesting that they indicate London's discomfort with Moscow’s role as a "reliable energy supplier." The British government on Thursday announced sanctions on 18 Russian oil tankers and four liquefied natural gas vessels, marking the largest set of sanctions against Russia's "shadow fleet" to date and prompting the Kremlin to accuse Britain of attempting to undermine its rights. Reuters Reuters

European Union starts process for stricter policy to deport irregular migrants. E.U. leaders on Thursday consented to use all available tools, including trade, development aid, and visa policy, to accelerate the deportation of migrants entering the bloc illegally. Despite a drop in migrant numbers compared to the 2015 crisis, migration remains a politically sensitive issue, influencing elections and fueling far-right parties. Out of 484,000 non-E.U. citizens ordered to leave the continent last year, only 20% returned to their home countries. The bloc has requested that the European Commission draft a law to improve this, and President Ursula von der Leyen has promised to present a new proposal for legislation. The leaders also backed Poland's decision to temporarily suspend asylum applications from migrants driven across its borders by Belarus and Russia, calling it a legal and necessary response to a "hybrid attack." Similar challenges have been faced by Finland, which also halted asylum applications at its Russian border. E.U. chiefs also discussed creating "return hubs" outside the bloc for migrants whose asylum claims were rejected, although not all were supportive. While countries like Italy and the Netherlands have set up or are considering such hubs, leaders such as Germany’s Chancellor Scholz emphasized that fast return laws would be more effective for larger countries. Despite migration challenges, some leaders, including Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, stressed the importance of immigration for Europe’s aging population and economies, arguing that migration should be seen as a positive factor for future generations. Reuters BBC The Guardian Politico  

Swiss Authorities Investigate Firms Dodging Russia Sanctions. Switzerland is investigating companies using foreign subsidiaries to evade Russian sanctions while still being controlled from Swiss cities like Geneva and Zug. The State Secretariat of Economic Affairs (SECO) has flagged several firms potentially violating sanctions, citing red flags such as identical management teams and financial flows between foreign and Swiss entities. While SECO hasn't convicted any firms yet, probes are ongoing. The Swiss government has faced criticism for not adopting European Union rules requiring oversight of subsidiaries. The U.S. ambassador to Switzerland expressed disappointment, urging the country to help close loopholes in its enforcement. Bloomberg

MIDDLE EAST

UN calls for investigation into alleged massacre of Afghans migrating to Iran. The U.N.’s mission in Afghanistan on Thursday demanded a probe into reports that over 200 Afghan migrants were attacked, and dozens killed, on the Afghanistan-Iran border this week. Afghan media, including Tolo News, cited witnesses who claimed that Iranian border guards in the Sistan province attacked the migrants after they entered Iran’s border area of Kala Gan illegally. Iran's ambassador to Afghanistan denied the reports. The Taliban-run Afghan government has not confirmed the incident and have been unable to verify it as the attack occurred outside their borders, but a delegation is investigating. Amnesty International UNAMA expressed deep concern over the alleged attack and urged a "thorough and transparent" investigation, stressing the protection of migrants under international law. Since the Taliban took power in 2021, many Afghans have fled to Iran and Pakistan, both of which have since cracked down on refugees. Reuters Barron's 

ASIA & OCEANIA

China says it is beefing up efforts with US to combat smuggling. China is enhancing efforts with countries like the U.S. to combat smuggling and cross-border crimes, according to state media. The National Immigration Administration stated that smuggling operations have endangered lives and caused significant economic losses. While not specifying whether goods or people were involved, the report highlighted joint enforcement actions between China and the U.S. based on mutual respect and consultation. The U.S. has deported Chinese nationals attempting illegal entry, with 56,000 Chinese migrants encountered at U.S. borders in fiscal 2024, partly due to economic challenges and visa difficulties. Reuters

International Crisis Group says any Philippine measures to construct ‘permanent’ shoal structure risks China response. A new report by the International Crisis Group warns that tensions between the Philippines and China could escalate if the Philippines attempts to build a permanent structure at the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, where it has maintained a grounded warship as a military outpost since 1999. The report, published earlier this month, cautions that Beijing may try to block such efforts and increase its presence in the region, where clashes between the two nations have occurred within Manila’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Analysts suggest the Philippines may want to strengthen its presence at the shoal, especially ahead of its 2025 midterm elections, but warn that China’s backlash is unavoidable. Experts also predicted that the U.S. may increase its support for the Philippines, while other countries like Australia, France, and the UK could step up their presence in the region. At the same time, divisions may deepen among Southeast Asian nations, especially those with claims in the South China Sea, as some countries, like Vietnam and Malaysia, pursue different strategies regarding their relationships with Beijing and Washington. Closer cooperation among ASEAN claimant states is perceived as vital to counter China's growing influence in the region. South China Morning Post 

U.S. charges Indian government employee in plot to kill American citizen. The U.S. has charged Vikash Yadav, an Indian intelligence officer, with directing a foiled plot to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a U.S. citizen and Sikh separatist, in New York. Yadav allegedly orchestrated the plot from India, enlisting Nikhil Gupta, who was arrested in Prague and extradited to the U.S.  Prosecutors said Yadav is employed by the Cabinet Secretariat of the Government of India, which is home to the nation’s foreign intelligence service. Yadav isn’t in custody, Manhattan US Attorney Damian Williams said in a release Thursday unsealing the charges against Yadav. The case mirrors tensions between India and Canada after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau linked India to the 2023 murder of another Sikh separatist, Hardeep Singh Nijjar. These incidents have strained U.S.-India and Canada-India relations. Bloomberg Reuters

Taiwan president thanks air force for 'outstanding' work during China war games. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te thanked the air force Friday for their "outstanding" performance during recent Chinese military drills near the island. Lai visited air force headquarters, encouraging them to continue safeguarding the Taiwan Strait's airspace. China's war games were a warning against "separatist acts.” Taiwan detected 153 Chinese aircraft during Monday’s exercises, the highest in a single day. Lai reaffirmed Taiwan's rejection of Beijing's sovereignty claims and emphasized the air force's critical role in national defense. Reuters

Seoul says Pyongyang’s troop deployment to Russia presents 'grave security threat.’  South Korea has accused North Korea of sending troops to Russia to support its war in Ukraine, which Seoul considers a serious security threat to the international community. South Korean intelligence reported that Pyongyang has decided to deploy 12,000 troops, including a special forces unit. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol held an emergency security meeting to address the situation, calling it a significant escalation of military ties between the North and Russia, which previously involved only military supplies. While Seoul claims to have been tracking the troop movement with its allies, it did not provide specific intelligence or confirm if North Korean troops are involved in combat. Reuters

India foreign minister's Pakistan visit a 'good beginning,' Nawaz Sharif says. Former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif called the recent visit of India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar to Pakistan a "good beginning" toward improving relations between the two countries. Jaishankar attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in Islamabad on Tuesday and Wednesday, marking the first visit by an Indian foreign minister to Pakistan in nearly a decade. Sharif emphasized the importance of maintaining dialogue between the two nuclear-armed nations. "We have lost the last 75 years, and it is important we don't lose the next 75 years," Sharif was quoted as saying in the Times of India newspaper. Reuters 

What policies to expect from Indonesia's new President Prabowo. Indonesia's incoming president, retired general Prabowo Subianto, has laid out several key policies as he prepares to take office. His economic goals include accelerating growth to 8% from 5% now by developing resource-based industries and attracting foreign investment, particularly in infrastructure. Prabowo aims to achieve self-sufficiency in food and energy, expanding agricultural projects and increasing biodiesel production. His $28 billion "Free Nutritious Meals" program for 83 million children and pregnant women has raised fiscal concerns. Prabowo also targets a higher revenue-to-GDP ratio through technological improvements without raising tax rates. He intends to continue building the new capital city, Nusantara, and maintain Indonesia’s non-alignment in foreign policy, while potentially taking a more active global role. Prabowo will be sworn in on Sunday. Indonesia is the world's third-biggest democracy with the largest economy in Southeast Asia. Reuters

Arrest warrant issued for former Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina over mass killings. The International Crimes Tribunal of Bangladesh has issued an arrest warrant for former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who is currently in India, for her purported role in mass killings during violent protests earlier this year. The student-led protests quickly escalated into deadly unrest, leading to over 700 deaths. After Hasina fled to India on August 5, an interim government led by Nobel laureate and economist Muhammad Yunus took control of the nation. The tribunal, led by Justice Golam Mortuza Majumdar, granted the arrest warrant on Thursday after prosecutors requested it, citing the need to detain influential individuals to ensure a thorough investigation. Hasina is required to appear in court by November 18. More than 60 complaints have been filed against her and her Awami League party, accusing them of murder and enforced disappearances. Hasina's son, Sajeeb Wazed, maintains her innocence, and Bangladesh's de facto foreign minister, Mohammad Touhid Hossain, stated efforts will be made to bring her back within the court's one-month deadline. Reuters BBC Associated Press 

AFRICA

U.N. envoy suggests partition plan for Western Sahara. The U.N. envoy for Western Sahara, Staffan de Mistura, has suggested partitioning the disputed territory as a possible solution to the nearly five-decade conflict between Morocco and the Algeria-backed Polisario Front. This proposal would create an independent state in the southern part of the territory, while integrating the rest into Morocco, with international recognition of Moroccan sovereignty. However, both Morocco and the Polisario Front have rejected the idea. Morocco insists on offering only autonomy under its sovereignty, while the Polisario Front demands a referendum with independence as an option. The U.N. Security Council continues to push for a mutually acceptable political solution and has described Morocco's autonomy plan as "serious and credible." Morocco’s scheme has gained support from nations such as the U.S., Spain, France, and some Arab and African countries. Though the Polisario Front withdrew from a U.N.-brokered truce in 2020, the conflict is still low-intensity, and the Western Sahara remains a key point of contention between Morocco and Algeria. Reuters Associated Press 

Suicide bombing leaves seven dead in Somalia’s capital. A suicide bombing in a restaurant in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, killed at least seven people and injured six others on Thursday, according to local police. Both officers and civilians were among the dead and wounded. The restaurant, located near the General Kaahiye Police Academy, was often visited by officers. While no group immediately claimed responsibility, the militant group al Shabaab is known for carrying out such attacks in Somalia as part of its efforts to overthrow the government and impose its own rule. The attack highlights the ongoing instability and threat posed by the al-Qaeda linked militant group in the region. Reuters Al Jazeera Associated Press 

Mpox spreading through Africa as Marburg cases plummet in Rwanda. The Rwandan health minister said that the nation’s outbreak of the deadly Marburg virus is easing following vaccinations of vulnerable groups, including healthcare workers. Infections have dropped by over 50%, with consecutive days going by without new cases or deaths. So far, Rwanda has recorded 62 confirmed cases, 15 deaths, and 38 recoveries. Meanwhile, the mpox virus continues to spread across Africa, and is now affecting 18 countries, up from six in April. The African Union has recorded over 42,000 suspected mpox cases and 1,100 deaths this year. Africa CDC's head, Jean Kaseya, has urged for faster donor action and the delivery of pledged funds and vaccines to stop the mpox outbreak. Reuters  

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Chip stocks surge as TSMC's strong AI forecast boosts Nvidia to record high. Shares of Nvidia hit a record high as U.S. chip stocks surged following a strong sales forecast from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC). TSMC, the globe’s largest contract chipmaker, raised its annual revenue growth outlook, highlighting that AI chips will contribute a significant portion of its revenue. TSMC's U.S.-listed shares rose over 11%, surpassing a $1 trillion market cap. Nvidia, a major customer of TSMC, gained nearly 4% before leveling off at 2% higher. Other chipmakers, including AMD, Broadcom, Qualcomm, and Micron, also saw stock increases. Intel rose 1% despite struggling to catch up to TSMC in advanced chip manufacturing. TSMC's positive outlook alleviated investor concerns following recent forecast cuts from chip equipment giant ASML, signaling strong demand for AI and smartphone chips. Both TSMC and Nvidia have seen massive stock gains this year, driven by the booming AI chip sector. Reuters

Cyberattack by suspected pro-Russian hackers’ targets Japan's ruling political party.  Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) experienced a cyberattack earlier this week that temporarily disrupted its website as the nation began its general election campaign. The attack, identified as a distributed denial-of-service (DDoS), coincided with similar attacks on other state websites, some of which were knocked offline. Pro-Russian hacking groups, including NoName057(16) and the Cyber Army of Russia, claimed responsibility, citing Japan’s upcoming military exercises with the U.S. as their motivation. These exercises, which will take place near Russia’s border, have drawn criticism from Moscow. The hackers stated they were targeting Japan for its "Russophobic" stance, aiming to disrupt various institutions, including legal counseling agencies, shipbuilders and financial services. Japan's government is investigating the incident and stressed that any attempts to interfere with fair elections will not be tolerated. The Record Cyber Daily 

Thousands of websites disrupted, over 5,000 arrested in crackdown on illegal gambling this summer, says Interpol. Interpol on Thursday revealed that a global police clampdown, code-named SOGA X, targeting illegal sports gambling during the UEFA 2024 European Football Championship this summer led to 5,100 arrests and the shutdown of tens of thousands of illegal websites. Authorities from 28 nations took part in the operation, which uncovered links between illegal gambling and cybercrime centers involved in scams like romance fraud and money laundering. Over $59 million in illicit proceeds were seized. The operation also disrupted human trafficking operations, rescuing more than 650 victims in the Philippines who had been lured under false pretenses. In Vietnam, a gambling ring making $800,000 daily was dismantled. Other key targets included illegal betting operations in Thailand and Greece, where crime groups were using fake and stolen identities to facilitate gambling-related fraud. This crackdown underscores the evolving tactics of crime syndicates, especially in Southeast Asia, where they are adapting to outpace law enforcement. The Record Interpol 

Hackers blackmailing American insurance firm Globe Life after data theft from subsidiary. Hackers are extorting Texas-based Insurance giant Globe Life, after data on over 5,000 individuals was stolen from its subsidiary, American Income Life Insurance Company. The stolen data includes sensitive information such as Social Security numbers, names, addresses, and health-related data. Globe Life has reported the incident to federal law enforcement and is still investigating the full extent of the breach. The hackers have shared some of the stolen information with short sellers and attorneys and claim to possess more data. The extortion did not involve ransomware or disrupt company operations. In response, Globe Life has hired cybersecurity experts to address the situation. The company had previously reported a vulnerability in a web portal that may have allowed unauthorized access to consumer data. Globe Life earned $5.21 billion in revenue last year, with American Income Life being one of its major brands. The Record Tech Crunch Bleeping Computer Cyber Daily  

SpaceX intends to use 'chopsticks' to catch Starship upper stage in early 2025. SpaceX achieved a historic milestone on Oct. 13 when the first-stage booster of its Starship megarocket, known as Super Heavy, was successfully caught by the launch tower's "chopstick" arms after liftoff. In the coming months, SpaceX plans to attempt the same maneuver with Starship's 50 meter, upper-stage spacecraft, simply called "Ship." CEO Elon Musk stated that this catch could happen early next year. Starship, a fully reusable rocket designed for missions to the moon, Mars, and beyond, has seen recent success with its last two test flights. While the upper stage will require traditional landings with legs for lunar and Martian missions, SpaceX intends to catch the vehicle on Earth-orbit missions to enable rapid reuse, such as for Starlink deployments and refueling other Starships. Space.com  

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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