Report for Friday, October 11, 2024

THE TOP HEADLINES

Friday, October 11, 2024

Iran warns Gulf states not to help Israel strike Iran

US Believes That Ukraine Can Hold Russian Territory for Months

Hungary’s Orban Gets a Hostile Reception at European Parliament

US still believes Iran has not decided to build a nuclear weapon, US officials say

U.S. concerned about China’s ‘dangerous’ South China Sea actions, Blinken tells ASEAN.

Activists report a spike in mass civilian deaths after Sudan's army ups airstrikes

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

US Intelligence: Russia, China and Iran in Election Propaganda BlitzThe Cipher Brief 

WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Iran warns Gulf states not to help Israel strike Iran.  Tehran is threatening Gulf states and other U.S. allies in the Mideast not to allow their airspace and territory to be used for Israel’s impending attack on Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.  Israel has promised to retaliate against Iran for firing about 180 missiles at Israel on Oct. 1.  Some Israeli officials and commentators have urged strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil fields. Iran has told Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar not to help Israel or the U.S. with an offensive operation against Iran. U.S. military installations and forces in the region could be targeted as well.  Some Mideast allies have told the U.S. that Israeli warplanes cannot overfly their territories, and U.S. troops based in their countries can’t run offensive operations from their territories or over their airspace.  Wall Street Journal   

Gulf states want Washington to tell Israel to lay off Iran’s oil fields.  The Gulf states are pressing Washington to use its influence to prevent Israel from bombing Iran's oil industry.  Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have told Washington Israel can’t use their airspace to attack Iran. The Arab states approached the U.S. after Tehran’s emissaries – among them Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who recently met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – warned them that if Iran’s oil fields were hit, their own oil production could be targeted by Iran’s proxies in Iraq or Yemen.  If Gulf Arab oil fields were shut down, a global energy crisis could ensue.  Reuters reported that Israeli officials had not yet decided whether to strike Iran's oil fields. Reuters 

Hezbollah official eludes Israeli assassination attempt, but 22 others die. UN peacekeepers at risk.  The Israeli military’s attempt to kill a senior Hezbollah officer in Beirut Thursday failed, Reuters and other outlets reported. Wafiq Safa, head of Hezbollah's liaison with Lebanese security agencies, was targeted by Israel Thursday and survived Israeli strikes, described as the deadliest since the start of the war, that hit a neighborhood in central Beirut.  The Lebanese Health Ministry said 22 people, including a family of eight, were killed and 117 wounded.  By targeting Safa, Israel showed it was looking beyond Hezbollah’s military commanders to the organization’s senior political ranks. Safa oversaw 2008 negotiations that led to an exchange of Israeli soldiers’ bodies for Lebanese prisoners in Israel.  Meanwhile, the United Nations' peacekeeping force in Lebanon, UNIFIL, said two of its personnel were injured by Israeli tank fire Thursday.  U.N. peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix told the Security Council that the 10,400 U.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon are "increasingly in jeopardy." The White House expressed deep concern about the safety of  U.N. peacekeepers.  Israel's military said in a statement that its troops were operating "next to a UNIFIL base" and had instructed the UN forces to remain in protected spaces, but the forces opened fire in the area." The  force's spokesperson said the peacekeepers would remain at their posts despite Israeli attacks and orders by Israel's military to leave. On Thursday, the Israeli military warned Lebanese civilians not to return to homes in the south and issued an evacuation warning for Beirut's southern suburbs. Reuters  Reuters  Associated Press   Wall Street Journal  

UN panel charges Israel with 'extermination' for destroying Gaza health system.  A U.N. panel commissioned by the U.N.-backed Human Rights Council  accused Israel Thursday of destroying Gaza’s health care system through “relentless and deliberate attacks.” Israel’s actions amounted to war crimes and the crime against humanity of extermination, the panel said.  It also found that thousands of adults and children detained in Gaza had been subjected to “widespread and systematic abuse, physical and psychological violence, and sexual and gender-based violence.”  The panel, composed of independent experts, has no power to bring formal charges.  Reuters   Associated Press

France, U.S. want a stronger Lebanese army to fill power vacuum created by weakening Hezbollah. The U.S. and France told the U.N. Security Council Thursday that Lebanon’s army must be strengthened to implement a Security Council resolution to demilitarize the Lebanon-Israel border.    Deputy U.S. Ambassador Robert Wood said the international community must work to reinforce Lebanese state institutions. French U.N. Ambassador Nicolas de Riviere said that a proposal for a 21-day truce - put forward by France and the U.S. last month - still stands.  Reuters  

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

US Believes That Ukraine Can Hold Russian Territory for Months. U.S. officials believe Ukraine can hold onto territory seized in Russia's Kursk region for several months, aided by a steadier supply of artillery ammunition. Russia has launched only limited counterattacks in Kursk, focusing instead on eastern Ukraine. Impressed by the summer offensive, Kyiv's allies are cautious about the long-term costs if Russia counterattacks. President Volodymyr Zelensky sees the seized territory as potential leverage in negotiations, though talks with Moscow remain uncertain. Ukraine is preparing for winter defense while planning for 2025, bolstered by new brigades, improved equipment, and enhanced training. Bloomberg

Russia has redeployed 50,000 troops to Kursk Oblast. Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said Thursday that Russia has transferred 50,000 soldiers from other fronts to Kursk Oblast, two months after Kyiv's incursion into the area. Syrskyi disclosed this during a documentary aired on national television, noting the shift has weakened Russian positions in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Kramatorsk. The redeployment marks an increase from President Volodymyr Zelensky's earlier estimate of 40,000 troops. Ukrainian forces continue to hold parts of Kursk Oblast, while Russia maintains pressure in Ukraine’s east. Kyiv Independent

World Bank board approves new Ukraine fund, with money from US, Japan, Canada. On Thursday, the World Bank's executive board approved a new financial intermediary fund to support Ukraine, with contributions expected from the U.S., Japan, and Canada. The fund is part of a G7 pledge to provide Ukraine with up to $50 billion by year-end. The funding will come from the proceeds of frozen Russian sovereign assets. The decision follows the European Union’s pledge to provide Ukraine with €35 billion as part of a larger G7 loan package. The fund will help Ukraine with its war expenses, estimated at $80 to $90 billion in 2023. Reuters

Zelensky Says Forces Lack Equipment, Aims for November Summit. During a European tour, President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted a shortage of military equipment Thursday as he sought more support before winter. After meeting French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, he confirmed that a ceasefire was not being discussed with European leaders. Zelensky plans to hold a second peace summit next month to push for an end to Russia's war. He earlier presented his “victory plan” during talks with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in London. Zelensky met later Thursday in Rome with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. He presented Ukraine's victory plan to Meloni and thanked Italy for its security assistance, especially air defense systems. He also discussed a new security package. The Vatican said he also has a half-hour audience on Friday with Pope Francis. Later Friday, he’ll meet German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin. “The situation looks bleak for all sides,” Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said Thursday on X. “The West hesitates amid internal divisions, Ukraine struggles while bracing for a harsh winter, and Russia presses forward without any strategic shifts in its favor yet grows increasingly impatient.” Bloomberg Associated Press Kyiv Independent

NATO boss: Stop worrying about Trump. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte urged the international community to stop worrying about a potential Donald Trump presidency and its impact on Ukraine's war. Rutte, during talks Thursday in London with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, said Trump understands Ukraine’s fight is crucial for U.S. security. He expressed confidence that the U.S. would continue supporting Ukraine, regardless of the election outcome. PoliticoEU

'No, no, no' on firing UK missiles into Russia by Ukraine. The UK is still denying Ukraine permission to fire long-range Storm Shadow missiles into Russia despite battlefield setbacks. After meeting British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte emphasized, "no, no, no, there's no change on that." Ukraine can only target Russian forces on its soil with these missiles, frustrating Zelensky, who likened it to fighting with "one hand tied behind his back." EUobserver

Pope Francis meets Zelensky at the Vatican. Pope Francis met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Vatican on Friday, marking their second meeting in four months. They held private talks for 35 minutes, with Francis giving Zelensky a bronze artwork symbolizing peace. Zelensky presented the pope with an oil painting of a child amid ruins in Bucha, where Russian forces are accused of war crimes. Zelensky is touring Europe to promote his "victory plan" for Ukraine's war with Russia. Tensions remain between the Vatican and Kyiv over the pope's earlier comments on negotiating peace and his criticism of Ukraine’s plans to ban a Russia-linked Orthodox Church. Reuters

Russia continues to advance in eastern Ukraine. Russia continues to make costly advances in eastern Ukraine, forcing Ukrainian forces to retreat from key positions like Vuhledar to avoid encirclement. Russia's progress in Toretsk, marked by heavy bombardment, is concerning. Ukrainian forces control around half of the strategic city of Toretsk in eastern Ukraine as they attempt to stave off assaults by Russian troops, the city's local authorities said on Friday. But the Kremlin’s offensive in Pokrovsk has slowed. Russia has not made much progress in taking Chasiv Yar, some 40 kilometers north of Toretsk. Despite fears of a Ukrainian collapse, Ukraine is focused on inflicting heavy casualties while preserving its forces. Russia faces growing issues, including declining artillery advantage and equipment losses, while Ukraine's ammunition supplies have improved. However, Russia’s dominance in the “information space” is undermining Western support for Ukraine, leading to delayed or reduced military aid.  The notion that Ukraine cannot win is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy and an excuse for Western leaders to withhold what Ukraine needs to prevail. A pattern has emerged in which promised military support arrives late or not at all. Economist Kyiv Independent Reuters

What will it take to de-mine Ukraine, the world’s largest minefield? Ukraine, now the world’s most mined country, faces a de-mining challenge that could take up to 30 years to clear approximately 156,000 square kilometers of hazardous land—around a third of its territory. The World Bank estimates the total cost of this effort to be €34 billion. Currently, Ukraine has only 3,000 trained sappers, though over 10,000 are required. The presence of unexploded ordnance poses severe risks to civilians, especially as displaced people return to their homes. Many mines and unexploded devices are located in private areas, water bodies, and farmland, making them difficult to detect and remove. Civilians face the danger of accidentally triggering unexploded devices. To address these risks, Ukraine is training more de-miners and deploying robotic systems to increase the speed and safety of demining. Euronews

Ukrainian Journalist Viktoria Roshchyna Dies in Russian Captivity. Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchyna, who had been missing since August 2023, has been confirmed dead while in Russian captivity, Ukrainian authorities reported on Thursday. Roshchyna, who had worked with outlets like RFE/RL and Hromadske, was reporting from Russian-occupied territories when she was detained. Efforts had been underway to secure her release as part of a prisoner exchange. Russian news outlet Mediazona reported she died while being transferred to Moscow from a prison in Taganrog, near the Ukrainian border. Her death highlights the dangers journalists face in war zones. Over 100 journalists have been killed, detained, or gone missing since Russia’s invasion in 2022. The National Union of Journalists of Ukraine condemned the killing. "We urge the world community to step up pressure on Russia to release all Ukrainian journalists who are illegally held by the occupiers," the group said. RFE/RL Kyiv Independent CBS News The Guardian Reuters

Ukraine warns nuclear plants at risk from Russian missiles. Ukraine’s Energy Minister German Galushchenko warned Thursday that Russian missiles are flying over Ukraine’s nuclear power plants daily, raising the risk of atomic accidents. On Aug. 26, a missile strike caused a temporary shutdown of one plant. Ukraine fears a disaster, as three nuclear plants generate nearly 60% of its electricity. President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Russia might target these plants. Overall, Russia has almost doubled its drone attacks on Ukrainian targets, from 790 in August to 1,339 in September. Ukraine’s state nuclear company, Energoatom, has faced criticism for not building concrete shelters for its substations around the plants. Energoatom said that information about protective structures at its plants was classified.  Financial Times

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 6, injure 27 over past day. Besides a strike that killed four in Odesa, Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day killed at least two other people and injured 27, authorities reported on Friday. In Donetsk Oblast, one person was killed and several others wounded, while in Kharkiv Oblast, a woman was killed. Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia injured several more. Additional strikes targeted critical infrastructure in Mykolaiv, injuring three people, with other regions also under fire. Kyiv Independent

Russia launches 4th aerial attack in a week against Ukraine’s grain-exporting Odesa region. A Russian nighttime missile strike on Odesa killed four people, including a 16-year-old girl, authorities said on Friday, the latest in a series of attacks aimed at disrupting Ukraine’s grain exports. This week's strikes on the southern region have killed 14 and injured 20, hitting merchant ships and port infrastructure. A Wednesday attack killed nine and damaged a Panamanian-flagged vessel, the third in four days. These assaults coincide with President Volodymyr Zelensky's efforts to secure military and financial support from Western partners. Ten others were injured, with four in serious condition, in the latest attack. Associated Press

Russian Attacks Spark Surge in War Insurance for Ukraine Grains. The cost of insuring vessels transiting Ukraine’s Black Sea shipping corridor surged this week due to increased Russian attacks on key ports. Insurance premiums have risen from 0.75% to over 1% of a ship's value, with attacks on three vessels in four days. Ukraine, a major grain exporter, has faced more than 60 Russian attacks targeting port infrastructure, ships, and civilians. Wheat futures have risen 2.5% as concerns grow over the security of Black Sea exports. Shipowners are becoming more cautious amid the ongoing risks. Bloomberg

Russia hits civilian, critical infrastructure, injures 10 in Ukraine. Russian forces attacked civilian and critical infrastructure across Ukraine on Thursday, injuring at least 10 people. Ballistic missile strikes in Mykolaiv and guided bomb attacks in Zaporizhzhia caused injuries and widespread damage. Russian shelling in Kherson damaged energy infrastructure, leading to power outages. A drone attack in Kryvyi Rih injured two people and damaged a residential building. Ukraine's air force downed 41 out of 62 Russian drones, while missile strikes also hit Odesa and Poltava regions. Reuters

Ukraine’s Best Fighting Vehicles Attacked Past Veseloe In Western Russia—And Got Caught In A Brutal Ambush. On Sept. 12, a Ukrainian force launched a second invasion of Russia's Kursk Oblast, aiming to encircle Russian troops between the Ukrainian advance and the border. The offensive, involving elite Ukrainian brigades and top fighting vehicles like the CV90, Marder, M-2, and Stryker, encountered fierce resistance near Veseloe. Russian forces from the 106th Airborne Division ambushed the Ukrainian troops with mines, artillery, and drones, destroying at least 15 Ukrainian vehicles, including some of their best. Both sides are now stuck in a grueling stalemate. While Ukraine struggles to link up with the main Kursk salient, Russian forces face similar losses along the Veseloe-Glushkovo road. Forbes

NATO will start an annual nuclear exercise as Russia threatens Ukraine’s Western backers. NATO will begin its annual "Steadfast Noon" nuclear exercise on Monday, lasting about two weeks. Led by Belgium and the Netherlands, it involves 2,000 personnel and 60 aircraft from 13 nations, testing NATO’s nuclear deterrence without using live munitions. The drills come as Russia escalates nuclear threats to discourage Western support for Ukraine. NATO's Secretary-General Mark Rutte emphasized the need to demonstrate readiness against any threat despite no imminent changes in Russia’s nuclear posture. Associated Press 

In Russia, Ukrainian move to ban Moscow-backed church stirs anger. Ukraine's ban on the Russia-backed Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) has ignited condemnation from Russian Orthodox leaders, with Patriarch Kirill at the forefront. Kirill, who has unwaveringly backed Putin’s brutal war, casts the invasion as a "holy mission" to defend traditional values against a corrupt West. His unholy alliance with the Kremlin has turned the church into a political tool, blessing the bloodshed in Ukraine. As Ukrainian authorities seek to dismantle the Moscow-backed church, Kirill’s loyalists accuse Kyiv of religious persecution while turning a blind eye to the atrocities committed in the name of their "sacred" war. Reuters

In recovery centers, Ukrainian soldiers work to get back to the fight. At Ukraine’s rehabilitation centers, soldiers like Oleksandr Zaichenko, recovering from his fourth concussion, work to return to the battlefield. About 16,000 soldiers have passed through 13 centers since 2022, established through funding from an auction by billionaire Ukrainians Victor and Elena Pinchuk of Jeff Koons’s artwork. The centers treat severe injuries, including pulverized bones and amputations. Some soldiers aim to rejoin the fight, while others face uncertain futures. These facilities help soldiers regain motor skills and independence, but long-term treatment costs remain a concern as the war grinds on. Washington Post

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. Ukrainian forces struck a Shahed drone storage facility in Krasnodar Krai and an ammunition warehouse in Adygea on Wednesday-Thursday, causing secondary explosions. Russian troops have targeted three civilian vessels in Ukrainian ports since Oct. 5, aiming to disrupt Ukraine's grain corridor. A U.S. defense official reported over 600,000 Russian casualties since February 2022. An Iranian outlet claimed Russia provided Iran with an S-400 system and Su-35 jets.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, southeast of Pokrovsk and southwest of Donetsk City. Institute for the Study of War

Research- Ukraine Support Tracker: Aid Could Drop Significantly From 2025. Ukraine's support from Western allies may substantially decline in 2025 as the political landscape and funding mechanisms shift. The Ukraine Support Tracker report highlights that aid increased in the summer of 2024, with around €14.6 billion in total support received in July and August. However, the nature of aid changed, with July seeing €5.5 billion in military assistance and August focusing on financial aid, with €7.9 billion allocated for economic stabilization and reconstruction. Ukraine could face a significant shortfall next year. A potential second term for Donald Trump as U.S. president could block future aid packages in Congress. Germany has announced plans to cut its aid by 50%, and other European donors may follow suit. Should this happen, Ukraine’s military aid could drop from €59 billion to €29 billion, and financial aid could fall from €54 billion to €27 billion. While new funding vehicles, such as NATO-coordinated contributions and loans from frozen Russian assets, are being discussed, these measures might only provide partial relief. They could offer €40 billion in military aid and €45 billion in financial assistance, but they are unlikely to fully replace the steady bilateral aid that Ukraine has relied on. Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Opinion: Give Ukraine NATO Membership. Peace Depends on It. William B. Taylor, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, argues that Ukraine must join NATO to secure lasting peace and protection from Russian aggression. President Volodymyr Zelensky echoed this sentiment during his October visits to Washington and New York, emphasizing the need for security guarantees. Taylor reflects on NATO’s failure in 2008 to offer Ukraine a membership plan, which may have emboldened Russia. He urges the U.S. to push hard for Ukraine's NATO membership to deter future Russian attacks and ensure European security. New York Times

Opinion: No one but Moscow gains from Polish-Ukrainian tensions. Jarosław Kuisz argues that rising tensions between Poland and Ukraine primarily benefit Moscow. He traces the roots of these disputes to structural issues, compounded by Ukraine's growing geopolitical importance. Poland, transitioning from populism under Donald Tusk’s new government, is cautious in its foreign policy, maintaining some of its predecessor's nationalistic stance. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s emergence as a powerful player, particularly due to its military strength, has led to more assertive demands. If left unchecked, Kuisz warns that these tensions risk undermining unity against Russia’s threat. Financial Times

AMERICAS

Boeing files unfair labor practice charge, accuses striking union of bad faith bargaining. Boeing announced on Thursday that it had filed an unfair labor practice charge with the National Labor Relations Board against the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, the union representing its striking West Coast factory workers. The company has accused union leaders of failing to bargain in good faith, as the strike by approximately 33,000 workers goes into its fifth week. Boeing withdrew its recent pay offer this week, citing the union's refusal to consider its proposals, and charged union leaders with misrepresenting the offer to members and not sending negotiators with authority to finalize a deal. The ongoing strike has halted production of Boeing’s key aircraft models, including the 737 MAX, and is putting financial pressure on the company. Boeing has implemented rolling furloughs for white-collar workers and suspended most parts orders. The company is concerned about maintaining its investment-grade credit rating. U.S. officials and members of Congress are urging both sides to negotiate for a resolution. Reuters The Straits Times 

Haiti’s gangs target another town, families still mourning victims of massacre. Gunmen from Haiti’s Canaan gang launched new attacks on the town of Arcahaie on Wednesday, while the country mourned victims of a massacre that occurred just days earlier in Pont-Sonde, an agricultural town 60 km north. Residents of Arcahaie have been asking for increased security, but local police have not responded. The Canaan gang, led by chief Jeff Larose, controls the area around a major highway and has a history of violent attacks, including shooting at protesting parishioners and circulating footage of kidnapped victims being tortured. Reuters Associated Press 

New mayor assumes role in Mexico’s south following beheading of predecessor. Gustavo Alarcón was sworn in as the new mayor of the city of Chilpancingo in Mexico’s south, days after his predecessor, Mayor Alejandro Arcos, was brutally murdered and beheaded less than a week into his term. The city is racked with violence, torn by a war between two rival drug gangs, the Ardillos and the Tlacos. Alarcón, a doctor elected as Arcos' alternate, took office with minimal security and vowed to fight the city's escalating violence. Before his death, Arcos had asked for more protection, but no formal request had been made. It's unclear if Alarcón has received increased security measures. Chilpancingo, the capital of Guerrero state, is plagued by drug-related bloodshed, and other mayors in Mexico, particularly from Guerrero and Guanajuato, have also requested protection following Arcos' murder. Associated Press

Mexico deploys over 600 troops, National Guard to protect farmers from cartel threats. Mexico has in recent days deployed 660 soldiers and National Guard officers to Michoacán state to protect lime growers from extortion by drug cartels. Since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office at the beginning of this month, 300 soldiers and 360 Guard officers have been sent to lime-producing towns to safeguard farmers from demands by cartels such as Los Viagras, who have been extorting a cut of their income. In August, lime packing warehouses in the region temporarily shut down due to cartel threats. The troops have seized weapons, including guns and grenades, in their operations. This extortion pattern extends beyond agriculture, as cartels are increasingly manipulating various sectors of the Mexican economy, such as convenience stores and gas stations. Associated Press

Darien Gap crossings rose in September, pushed by Venezuelans fleeing after disputed election. Data from the Panamanian government shows that migration through the Darien Gap, a dangerous jungle route between Colombia and Panama, surged in September, despite a reduction in crossings earlier in 2024. This increase is largely driven by the flow of Venezuelan migrants fleeing their home country following a controversial presidential election in July, which saw authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro hang on to power in spite of an alleged defeat. Last year, over half a million migrants crossed the Darien Gap, with Venezuelans comprising over 65% of the total. And while Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino has vowed to reduce migration by closing access points and repatriating migrants, this plan has not applied to Venezuelans because of Panama’s suspension of diplomatic relations with Caracas. As of October 7, 2024, migration through the Darien Gap had decreased by 36% compared to 2023, but there was a sharp 51% increase in September compared to August. Associated Press  

EUROPE

Hungary’s Orban Gets a Hostile Reception at European Parliament. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban received a hostile reception at the European Parliament this week, with progressive members singing “Bella Ciao,” an antifascist anthem, after his Wednesday speech. Orban, a champion of “illiberal democracy,” has been criticized for undermining European Union values and cozying up to authoritarian leaders like Russia’s Vladimir Putin. “You are not welcome here,” Green Party co-leader Terry Reintke told him. Orban reiterated his stance that Ukraine cannot win on the battlefield, advocating for a negotiated settlement. In response, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that "peace is not synonymous with surrender" and pledged continued support for Ukraine. New York Times

EU Pledges €1.8 Billion in Funding to Moldova Ahead of Key Votes. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Thursday the European Union’s pledge of €1.8 billion to support Moldova’s EU accession plan. The three-year funding plan aims to boost Moldova’s economic recovery, which has suffered from Russia’s war in Ukraine. The aid includes €605 million in grants for infrastructure, businesses, and social projects. The announcement comes just before Moldova's Oct. 20 presidential election and referendum, amid concerns of Russian interference. Von der Leyen expressed confidence in helping Moldova double its economy within a decade. Bloomberg

Cyprus police arrest 8 Syrians suspected of helping to fund a militant group in their homeland.  Cyprus police on Thursday arrested eight Syrians suspected of funding a militant group in Syria. A Cyprus court ordered their detention for six days. The group, consisting of seven men and one woman, faces charges under anti-terrorism laws, including belonging to a criminal organization and conspiracy. The arrests followed raids in Limassol and Paphos triggered by a tipoff. Authorities are investigating how the funds were raised, possibly involving drug dealing. No attack in Cyprus was planned. Associated Press

Russia expands visa-free entry for Georgian citizens. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday expanded visa-free entry for Georgian citizens working or studying in Russia, extending stays beyond 90 days. This move deepens Moscow's ties with Tbilisi as concerns over Georgia's democratic backsliding grow. Due to these concerns, the European Union is considering ending Georgia's visa-free access, granted in 2017. Georgia’s parliamentary elections, scheduled for Oct. 26, come amid heightened tensions, especially after the ruling party passed a foreign agents law mirroring repressive Russian legislation. Kyiv Independent

THE MIDDLE EAST

How Iran Uses Criminal Gangs in the West to Target Its Enemies. Iran and its allies, weakened by Israeli strikes and the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, are increasingly using criminal gangs in Europe to target Israeli and Jewish interests. Experts fear that Iran, unable to respond directly to Israel without risking a larger conflict, will exploit European organized crime to carry out attacks. Recent incidents include grenade attacks on Israeli embassies in Stockholm and Copenhagen, as well as a shooting near an Israeli defense company in Gothenburg. Swedish police have arrested teenagers tied to gang leaders allegedly working for Tehran. This tactic reflects Iran’s broader strategy of using criminal networks to achieve its goals, a method employed in the Middle East and now exported to Europe. Russia has also noticed this tactic, using l criminals for similar destabilizing actions across the continent. Iran's use of these proxy attacks allows it to strike at its adversaries with plausible deniability. Wall Street Journal

US still believes Iran has not decided to build a nuclear weapon, US officials say. The U.S. continues to believe Iran has not decided to build a nuclear weapon, despite recent setbacks such as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's killing by Israel and failed attacks on Israel. CIA Director William Burns told The Cipher Brief’s annual Threat Conference in Sea Island, Georgia, on Monday that there is no evidence Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had decided to accelerate his country’s efforts to produce a nuclear weapon. "We do not see evidence today that the Supreme Leader has reversed the decision that he took at the end of 2003 to suspend the weaponization program,” Burns said. However, experts warn that an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities could prompt Iran to resume efforts. Although Iran is enriching uranium close to weapons grade, it would take months to build a bomb. Burns added Iran's breakout time has drastically decreased. Reuters 

ASIA & OCEANIA

U.S. concerned about China’s ‘dangerous’ South China Sea actions, Blinken tells ASEAN. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday expressed concerns to ASEAN leaders about China's "increasingly dangerous and unlawful" actions in the disputed South China Sea during an annual summit, emphasizing Washington’s commitment to maintaining freedom of navigation in the region. In a speech, Blinken reiterated the U.S.'s support for its allies, including its defense commitment to the Philippines. He also criticized Beijing for wounding people in the South China Sea, damaging “vessels from ASEAN nations,” and contradicting “commitments to peaceful resolutions of disputes.” Blinken addressed other regional issues, including Myanmar's civil war, North Korea's worrying behavior, and Russia's aggression in Ukraine, while emphasizing the White House’s continued role as a major investor and partner in the ASEAN region. Associated Press

Chinese data reveals potential cause of 2021 U.S. submarine incident in the South China Sea. In September 2021, China launched a large-scale operation to track a vast whirlpool near the Paracel Islands, a contested archipelago in the South China Sea. The whirlpool, which spanned over 200 km, was monitored by Beijing’s advanced research vessel, a massive fleet of drones, and satellite systems. Around the same time, the USS Connecticut, a U.S. Navy Seawolf-class nuclear-powered submarine, collided with an unknown object in the same area on October 2, 2021, causing serious damage. An American military investigation blamed the incident on human error and unfamiliarity with the terrain, concluding that the submarine struck an uncharted undersea mountain and even removing officers from their posts “due to a loss of confidence.” However, recently declassified Chinese data about the whirlpool surveillance has raised questions about a potential link between the collision and the powerful weather phenomenon, though scientists have not confirmed a connection. Mesoscale eddies, like the one China tracked, are energy-packed whirlpools that can disrupt sonar, radar, and communications, making submarine navigation dangerous. The Chinese study revealed a complex structure within the whirlpool, with varying water temperatures and densities that could impact submarine performance. This data provides new insights into the challenges posed by these natural ocean phenomena and could offer an explanation of Washington’s unusual submarine incident. South China Morning Post 

China, Japan seek to maintain positive relations, despite recent tension. Chinese Premier Li Qiang expressed a desire for improved relations with Japan during talks with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at an ASEAN conference in Laos on Thursday. Li emphasized the need for both countries to strike a good balance and maintain stable bilateral relations, focusing on strengthening dialogue and cooperation. He highlighted the importance of safeguarding industrial and supply chains, as well as the global free trade system. Ishiba reassured Li that Tokyo does not intend to decouple from Beijing and aims to work together to enhance high-level exchanges and communication. He did, however, reiterate “Japan's serious concerns about the situation in the East China Sea,” particularly the “intensification of Chinese military activities.” Ishiba reportedly requested an explanation of why a Chinese military aircraft intruded into Tokyo’s “territorial airspace" in August. He also touched on other concerns, such as the transit of Beijing’s Liaoning aircraft carrier between two Japanese islands in September, the situation in the South China Sea, and worries about Hong Kong and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Reuters South China Morning Post France 24

North Korea hails 'longest ruling party' on 79th anniversary. North Korea on Thursday celebrated the 79th anniversary of its ruling Workers' Party with a concert and banquet, attended by leader Kim Jong Un and Russian ambassador Alexander Matsegora. Kim called for renewed ideological training of workers to become “true communist revolutionaries.” The events were more modest compared to previous years, with no military parades or high-profile Chinese official visits. Kim praised the Workers' Party as the world's longest-ruling party, praising its strength in overcoming challenges and building a powerful nation despite external threats. China's presence was limited to the sending of a floral basket, with no mention of Chinese officials attending the event. Reuters Yonhap News Agency

Opinion: Japan’s new leader will aim for security ties with South Korea to counter Kim’s North.  Maria Siow, a China-based correspondent and analyst, argues that under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Japan will aim to further strengthen ties with South Korea, and continue efforts to improve relations on historical issues like Tokyo’s colonial-era injustices. Ishiba's progressive stance, including his expressions of regret over Japan’s past wrongs, has raised hopes for further reconciliation. Both countries will also likely focus on deepening security cooperation, particularly against North Korea’s growing threats and its alignment with Russia. The outcome of the U.S. presidential election may impact their defense partnership, but Tokyo and Seoul are expected to maintain strong security ties as long as Pyongyang remains a key threat. South China Morning Post 

U.N. warns global crime gangs seeking to take root in Pacific Island nations. A Friday report by the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime cautions that Pacific Island nations are increasingly at risk of becoming hubs for global criminal gangs as illegal activities swell in the region. The report notes rising threats from drug and human trafficking, illegal fishing, wildlife theft, money laundering, and cybercrime. The region now hosts criminal groups including drug cartels from the Americas, motorcycle gangs from Australia and New Zealand, and Asian crime syndicates. The Pacific Islands' isolation, economic vulnerability, corruption, and limited law enforcement capacity make them particularly susceptible to becoming key bases for transnational criminal networks. Many Pacific nations have traditionally relied on foreign countries, such as Australia, for policing. However, this issue has become geopolitically sensitive, especially after China sent police to the Solomon Islands and Kiribati in 2022. In response, Canberra has pledged A$400 million to help train and deploy police, while the U.S. has committed to working with the region to combat drug trafficking, especially from criminal groups in China and Southeast Asia. Reuters

Unidentified gunmen attack Pakistan coal mine, kill at least 21. Police say an unidentified group of armed men attacked ten small private coal mines in southwestern Pakistan’s Balochistan province early Friday, killing 21 miners and injuring six others. The attackers, numbering about 40, fired rockets and grenades during a 1.5-hour assault, targeting mines in the Duki area. The dead included four Afghan nationals. The attackers also burned down the mines and destroyed equipment and machinery. The Pakistani government has vowed to combat terrorism, while police have launched an investigation into the devastating assault. The attack comes just days before Pakistan is set to host a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. No group has claimed responsibility, but Balochistan, a region rich in resources, has been plagued for decades by a long-running insurgency. Militant attacks, particularly targeting migrant workers, are common.  BBC Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera 

AFRICA

Activists report a spike in mass civilian deaths after Sudan's army ups airstrikes. In the past week, Sudan’s army has escalated airstrikes, leading to mass civilian deaths across the country, according to rights activists. Hundreds have been killed, including at least 38 children in El Gezira and 61 civilians in North Darfur. The war between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which began over a power struggle 18 months ago, has created the world’s largest displacement crisis. The RSF, accused of ethnic cleansing, vows to continue fighting while both sides reportedly receive external support, worsening the conflict. Reuters

Congolese risking deadly boat travel rather than roads blocked by rebels. Overcrowded boats on Congo's Lake Kivu have become a dangerous alternative to the region’s blocked roads, often inaccessible due to rebel activity. Last week, a boat capsized, killing 78 people, including eight members of Serge Nzonga’s family. Despite the risks, many continue using these unsafe boats, as they remain the only viable way to travel between provinces. Frequent capsizing is caused by overloading, lack of safety measures, and weak enforcement of regulations. Victims’ families protested at the port, accusing authorities of negligence and slow rescue efforts, while safety concerns remain largely unaddressed by officials. Associated Press 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

OpenAI says it disrupted 20 operations by threat actors to misuse tech. OpenAI on Wednesday revealed that it has disrupted over 20 campaigns and deceptive networks this year in which nation-states and affiliated groups, including those from China, Iran, Russia, and others, attempted to misuse its AI technology for malicious purposes. These activities involved tasks such as generating sophisticated malware, phishing emails, and misinformation. One notable group, CyberAv3ngers from Iran, was involved in attacks on U.S. water facilities and used ChatGPT to inquire about hacking techniques and vulnerabilities, though OpenAI stated that these inquiries provided no novel capabilities. CyberAv3ngers targeted industrial technology with ties to Israel, leaving anti-Israeli messages; American authorities responded by identifying vulnerabilities in water utility systems and advising security upgrades. OpenAI stressed that while AI was used, it did not significantly enhance the attackers' capabilities beyond what is already achievable through existing tools. The report highlights broader concerns about the misuse of AI for cyberattacks and misinformation, with U.S. officials stressing the need for international collaboration and stronger security practices as AI development accelerates. CISA’s Lisa Einstein expressed concerns about AI's rapid integration without proper security measures, warning that it could exacerbate the threat landscape. The Record OpenAI Cyberscoop The Hacker News 

Internet Archive hacked by DDos attacks; data breach exposes 31 million users. The Internet Archive, a prominent nonprofit digital library, experienced a significant cyberattack on Wednesday, including a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack and data breach which has affected 31 million users. Hackers stole usernames, emails, and encrypted passwords, and briefly defaced the site. Although the Internet Archive improved security and disabled the breach source, further DDoS attacks knocked the site and its OpenLibrary platform offline. The hacker group SN_BLACKMETA, which writes its post in Russian and has targeted institutions in the Middle East, claimed responsibility and said the attack was in retaliation for U.S. support of Israel. Privacy expert Troy Hunt, who operates HaveIBeenPwned, confirmed that the hackers had stolen user data and notified the Internet Archive about the breach. Hunt advised users to change their passwords once the site is back online. The timing of the data leak and attack seems coincidental, and multiple groups may be involved. SN_BLACKMETA has also targeted other organizations, including financial institutions and tech companies. The Record Bleeping Computer Cybernews Wired 

New Australian law to require obligatory reporting of ransomware payments. Australia could become the first country in the world to mandate that businesses report ransomware payments to the government under a new Cyber Security Bill, which was introduced in parliament on Thursday. The bill comes in response to rising cyberattacks on Australian companies like Optus and Medibank and is part of a broader AU$587 million national cybersecurity strategy aimed at warding off AU$3 billion in annual damages from ransomware. The bill requires businesses to report any ransomware payments within 73 hours or face fines. This mandatory reporting aims to improve the government’s visibility of ransomware attacks, as current voluntary reporting is underutilized. In 2023, businesses paid an estimated average of $9.27 million in ransomware-related payments. Other provisions in the law include setting security standards for smart devices, banning default passwords, promoting government-industry cooperation, and establishing a Cyber Incident Review Board to investigate major attacks. The bill will now be reviewed by the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security for potential amendments. The Record Infosecurity Magazine 

Russian cyber company Dr.Web rejects claims by pro-Ukraine hackers that data was leaked.Dr.Web, a Moscow-based antivirus firm, denied that its customer data was leaked during a cyberattack in early September, following claims by the pro-Ukraine hacker group DumpForums that they had succeeded in stealing 10 terabytes of data, including client databases. The hackers claimed to have had access to Dr.Web's network for a month, breaching services like the corporate GitLab server and mail server. Dr.Web refuted these claims, stating that the hackers' information is largely untrue and that user data was not affected. The company disconnected services, followed security protocols, and did not negotiate with the attackers, whose main goal was to demand a ransom. Dr.Web is still investigating the situation. DumpForums has targeted other Russian entities in the past, including state agencies and the national card payment system. The Record 

TikTok laying off hundreds amid shift towards AI content moderation. TikTok is laying off hundreds of employees globally, including nearly 500 in Malaysia, as part of a shift towards greater use of AI in content moderation. Most of the affected employees were involved in moderation tasks. TikTok, owned by the Beijing-based tech company ByteDance, confirmed that the layoffs are part of a broader effort to enhance its moderation operations. The company plans to invest $2 billion globally in trust and safety this year, with 80% of violating content now being removed by automated technologies. The layoffs come amid increasing regulatory pressure in Malaysia, where social media platforms must obtain an operating license by January to combat cyber offenses. Reuters Nikkei Asia Wall Street Journal  

REPORT INFO

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

Read deeply experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion inThe Cipher Brief