Report for Friday, November 8, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Friday, November 8, 2024

Israeli, French security officers clash during French F.M.’s visit to Jerusalem

Putin says Ukraine must remain neutral for there to be peace

Zelensky rebuffs Trump’s proposal for a rapid peace deal in the Ukraine war

Pentagon confirms that Ukraine will receive $6 billion in US military aid before Trump's term begins

China protests after Philippine president signs new laws to assert South China Sea claims, sovereignty

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

After Trump 2.0: Cipher Brief Experts Weigh In.  The Cipher Brief

How to Think In — and About — a Post-Analytic World  The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israeli, French security officers clash during French F.M.’s visit to Jerusalem.  Israeli security forces briefly arrested two French gendarmes in Jerusalem Thursday while French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot was about to visit The Church of the Pater Noster on the Mount of Olives. The church is under French administration. The Israeli police entered the site, according to media reports, and got into an argument with two French security guards. According to the Israeli foreign ministry, the French gendarmes were put into Israeli police cars, detained for a short time, then released.  Barrot canceled his visit to the church and warned, “This violation of the integrity of a domain placed in the care of France is liable to weaken the ties that I came here to cultivate with Israel, at a time when all of us need to help the region advance on the path towards peace.” France summoned the Israeli ambassador over the incident amid already strained Israeli-French diplomatic relations over Israel’s war on Hezbollah in Lebanon.  The Guardian Reuters Associated Press

Israeli authorities say Israeli soccer fans attacked in Amsterdam.  Israeli fans of Maccabi Tel Aviv soccer team were attacked in a “serious incident of violence in Amsterdam” over Thursday night-Friday morning as they left the stadium after a game against Dutch team Ajax, Israeli authorities said.  The Israeli government said it was sending planes to evacuate its citizens. Israeli foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar said 10 citizens were injured and advised citizens to stay in their hotels.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement calling the violence “serious” and said he was ordering two rescue planes to extricate Israeli citizens. Israel’s foreign ministry overnight Friday said about 30 people were arrested. Amsterdam’s police said it increased its presence in the city’s center Wednesday night, citing “tensions” ahead of the soccer match. Dutch police said in a statement on X that Palestinian flag was torn down in Amsterdam’s center by unknown perpetrators and that a demonstration was planned on Thursday near the stadium ahead of the soccer match between Ajax and Maccabi Tel Aviv.  CNN Associated Press 

Austin says Israel is doing better on Gaza aid, but...  Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Thursday that Israel has made some progress [on getting aid into Gaza] but more needs to be made."  Last month, Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken gave Israel a 30-day deadline to improve the provision of humanitarian assistance or risk access to U.S. weapons systems.  They spelled out specific steps Israel had to take within 30 days, for instance, allowing a minimum of 350 aid trucks to enter Gaza per day, instituting pauses in fighting to allow aid delivery and rescinding unnecessary evacuation orders.  Reuters

More families flee Gaza’s north, as Israeli tanks push deeper. Israeli forces intensified their bombardment across Gaza on Thursday, resulting in additional evacuations and displacement especially in northern areas. Palestinian health officials reported casualties, including at least 10 deaths from an airstrike on a school sheltering displaced families in Gaza City’s Shati camp. Israel claimed the strike targeted a Hamas command center within a civilian area. Israeli tanks also advanced into Beit Lahiya as drones broadcast evacuation orders. Displaced residents reported that the Israeli military was forcing evacuations, and Palestinian officials accused the state of ethnic cleansing. Israel refuted claims that residents would be barred from returning and stated that aid was entering northern Gaza, though Palestinians reported otherwise. Reuters

Kuala Lumpur furious after Israeli drone strike injures 6 Malaysian soldiers in Lebanon.  Malaysians were outraged after an Israeli drone strike injured six Malaysian soldiers near their convoy in Saida city, Lebanon on Thursday. The strike, which was targeting a different vehicle enroute to Beirut, also killed three Lebanese civilians and injured three Lebanese soldiers. The Malaysian troops, part of the U.S. Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), were traveling to their base in Marakah, in southern Lebanon. Social media comments from Malaysians condemned the attack, questioning Israel’s lack of accountability and calling for the nation to withdraw its peacekeeping troops from Lebanon, citing the U.N.’s inability to prevent such incidents. Malaysia, a vocal critic of Israel’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon, has also announced plans to file a motion to expel Israel from the U.N. South China Morning Post The Straits Times Reuters 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Putin says Ukraine must remain neutral for there to be peace. At the Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine must adopt a neutral stance to achieve peace. He asserted that Ukraine's borders should align with the preferences of residents in Russian-claimed territories, referring to these as “historical territories.” Putin criticized Ukraine's NATO ambitions. If Ukraine was not neutral, it would be "constantly used as a tool in the wrong hands and to the detriment of the interests of the Russian Federation," Putin said. His terms for peace include Ukraine relinquishing its NATO goals and withdrawing troops from regions claimed by Russia—conditions Ukraine firmly rejects as capitulation. "We are determined to create conditions for a long-term settlement so that Ukraine is an independent, sovereign state, and not an instrument in the hands of third countries, and not used in their interests," Putin said. Reuters

Trump mulls Ukraine peace plan that puts British troops in an 800-mile buffer zone.  President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering a Ukraine peace plan involving an 800-mile buffer zone enforced by European troops to freeze the current frontline. Under the proposal outlined by three Trump staffers, Ukraine would halt its NATO ambitions for 20 years in exchange for increased U.S. weapons support, deterring further Russian aggression. However, the U.S. would neither contribute troops nor fund the buffer zone, leaving those responsibilities to European allies like the UK, France, and Germany. Trump’s team emphasizes that Ukraine’s neutrality and fortified borders would stabilize the region, with Russia retaining control over its territorial gains.  The Telegraph

Zelensky rebuffs Trump’s proposal for a rapid peace deal in the Ukraine war.In Budapest on Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposal for a rapid peace deal with Russia, warning it would equate to a "loss" for Ukraine. "I believe that President Trump really wants a quick decision… He wants that. It doesn’t mean that it will happen this way,” Zelenskyy said. While he acknowledged the desire for an end to Russia's war, he emphasized that a rushed ceasefire would undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty: “If it is very fast, it’s going to be a loss for Ukraine.” Recalling failed ceasefire attempts in 2014, Zelenskyy argued that a quick deal would risk preparing for "the ruin and destruction of our independence." He further cautioned that without stronger political pressure on North Korea’s involvement, Russian President Vladimir Putin could deploy more North Korean troops, leveraging global inaction to intensify the conflict. Politico EU Kyiv Independent

Pentagon confirms that Ukraine will receive $6 billion in US military aid before Trump's term begins. The U.S. will deliver $6 billion in military aid to Ukraine before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20, Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh confirmed on Thursday. The package includes $4 billion from the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) and $2 billion from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). The Biden administration aims to complete these shipments amid fears that Trump might halt future aid. Singh emphasized bipartisan and international support for Ukraine, underscoring continued backing from the U.S. and over 50 Ukraine Defense Contact Group countries, even as Trump signals a reduced long-term commitment. Kyiv Independent AFP The Guardian

Kyiv strains to see Trump’s true plan for Ukraine. As Trump’s election stirs uncertainty in Kyiv, Ukrainian officials strategize on how best to engage the incoming U.S. administration. With air raid sirens as a backdrop, Kyiv’s political elite are considering a more pragmatic approach, acknowledging Trump’s harder stance on foreign aid. President Volodymyr Zelensky has introduced a victory plan that frames support for Ukraine not as charity but as a mutual benefit. Key aspects of the plan include a NATO invitation, advanced weaponry, and access to Ukrainian resources and troops to safeguard Europe. Foreign ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi warned that reduced U.S. aid could intensify Russian aggression, emphasizing Ukraine’s role as a security partner rather than a charity case. While Kyiv remains wary of Trump’s alignment with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian lawmakers are prepared to recalibrate their approach, recognizing that maintaining U.S. support may require nuanced diplomacy and reciprocal assurances. Politico EU

Zelensky Tells Europe He Needs Weapons, Not Talk of Concessions. At Thursday's European Political Community Summit in Budapest, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Europe to provide more weapons, not push for concessions with Russia. He warned that capitulating to Moscow would harm both Ukraine and European security. Emphasizing “peace through strength,” Zelensky rejected recent suggestions of a ceasefire, noting that Russian forces have continued their offensive, and concessions would be disastrous. As Russian attacks on Ukraine's cities and infrastructure intensify, Zelensky urged Europe to stand united, calling it “suicidal” for Europe to embrace appeasement. Bloomberg Kyiv Independent AFP

European leaders urge Trump to maintain support for Ukraine.  At Thursday's European Political Community summit in Budapest, European leaders urged President-elect Donald Trump to maintain U.S. support for Ukraine and avoid a trade war that could harm Europe’s economy. Leaders, including France’s Emmanuel Macron and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, emphasized Europe’s need for security independence but recognized the U.S. as a crucial ally. Macron underscored Europe’s need to take control of its future amid U.S. unpredictability, while EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed unity in defending against authoritarian threats. Trump’s return has fueled European worries about U.S. commitment to NATO and economic stability, with leaders like Finland’s Petteri Orpo warning against potential tariffs. Observers suggest Trump’s “America First” approach might fragment EU unity, especially with Europe’s internal political challenges and a rise in far-right support. However, some analysts believe Trump’s policies could spur Europe toward more decisive action on defense and economic resilience. The Guardian

Orbán calls for a quick ceasefire in Ukraine, prompting Zelensky's rebuke: 'Nonsense.'  During Thursday's European Political Community Summit in Budapest, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán advocated for a swift ceasefire in Ukraine, claiming, "The precondition for every peace is communication. The condition of communication is a ceasefire." He argued that recent political shifts, including Donald Trump’s U.S. election win, signal changing attitudes and rising European skepticism over financing Ukraine’s war effort. Orbán’s position drew a sharp rebuke from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who dismissed such proposals as “dangerous and irresponsible,” remarking, “Are your children dying? Are they being killed there? … Ceasefire? We tried that in 2014… then we lost Crimea.” Zelensky warned that a ceasefire without security guarantees would enable Russia to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty further. Referencing Orbán’s relationship with Vladimir Putin, Zelenskyy derided "armchair experts" who have never experienced war's brutality, rejecting the notion of a growing “pro-peace” camp within Europe, as Orbán claimed. Euronews

Europe Can’t Fund ‘Lost’ War in Ukraine Without US, Orban Says. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban warned on Friday that Europe cannot sustain Ukraine’s defenses alone if the U.S. withdraws support under Donald Trump’s next administration. Hosting a European Union summit in Budapest, Orban reiterated his view that recent developments validate his July diplomatic visits to Kyiv, Moscow, and Beijing, which led him to conclude Ukraine is losing the war. “The Americans are going to get out of this war,” he stated on public radio. “Europe can’t finance this war on its own.” Orban’s remarks underscore his long-standing critique of the West’s Ukraine strategy. Bloomberg

Support for Ukraine 'iron-clad,' Starmer tells Zelensky. At the European Political Community Summit in Budapest, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer reaffirmed the UK's "iron-clad" support for Ukraine to President Volodymyr Zelensky, emphasizing the importance of defending the broader values of freedom and democracy. Starmer encouraged Ukraine's allies to "step up" their assistance, underscoring the importance of unwavering support. Zelensky thanked Starmer for standing by Ukraine through challenging times. Amid concerns over Donald Trump’s U.S. election win, which could affect American military aid, Starmer avoided direct comments on Trump but emphasized the UK's consistent commitment. BBC

Germany's Ukraine support for 2025 is safe despite coalition break-up, sources say.  Germany’s commitment to Ukraine’s aid in 2025 remains intact despite recent political upheaval. Following the coalition government's collapse, Germany’s budget committee confirmed that 4 billion euros are secured as committed appropriations, allowing disbursement even without a finalized budget. Although Germany’s aid was reduced from 8 billion euros in 2024, additional funds may be possible through the budget committee or Bundestag approval. Chancellor Olaf Scholz had proposed increasing support by 3 billion euros, seeking to suspend the debt brake, but was met with resistance from Finance Minister Christian Lindner.  Reuters

Western leader blurts out what was once taboo on Ukraine.  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has informally raised the notion of a “Finlandization” model for Ukraine—neutrality reminiscent of Cold War-era Finland, positioned between NATO and Russia. This idea, though not an official German stance, signals a shift from Europe’s earlier commitment to securing Ukraine's NATO membership. Scholz’s comments align with rising domestic opposition to extended military involvement, influenced by the growth of anti-war parties like BSW and the AfD. Yet, Russian leaders, emboldened by recent battlefield gains, may now view Ukraine’s neutrality as insufficient. Without concessions from both sides, the “Finlandization” option might no longer be feasible for ending the war. Responsible Statecraft

ANALYSIS–Putin Plays Tough in Opening Move with Trump.  Following Donald Trump’s election, Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled that any peace deal will come with steep demands. Putin has long sought a neutral Ukraine without NATO ties and control over parts of Ukraine’s east and south. Trump’s team is divided on how to approach Russia; some favor tightened sanctions and stronger military support for Ukraine, while others are open to scaling back U.S. involvement. Despite heavy Russian losses in Ukraine, Putin faces little domestic pressure to negotiate. Russian forces have continued incremental gains along the frontlines, particularly in the Donbas. Analysts believe Putin feels he holds the advantage and will await clear terms from Trump before making any moves. For now, Putin is prepared to see if the U.S. might shift its stance, knowing that Trump’s strategy remains undeclared, leaving the possibility of a significant U.S. concession open. Time

ANALYISIS–Why Volodymyr Zelensky may welcome Donald Trump’s victory.  Despite concerns, some Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, see Donald Trump’s return as a potential opportunity. Frustrated with Joe Biden’s cautious support, limited security guarantees, and delays in weapons shipments, Zelensky expressed optimism, hoping Trump’s “decisive leadership” could end the deadlock. Trump has hinted at two peace approaches: one, favored by his former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, proposes increased military support; the other, tied to Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, envisions a freeze on current conflict lines, with Ukraine remaining neutral. As Russia escalates offensives, Ukraine faces internal morale challenges and infrastructure attacks, intensifying the urgency for stability.  The Economist

ANALYSIS–What Trump’s Election Could Mean For The War In Ukraine.  With Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, Ukraine faces significant uncertainty. Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance have criticized Joe Biden’s military support for Ukraine, advocating instead for ending the war swiftly, possibly by conceding parts of Ukraine’s territory. Trump’s allies reportedly favor freezing front lines and restricting NATO membership for Ukraine for at least 20 years, potentially shifting U.S. strategy. While Trump has supported arming Ukraine before, many Ukrainians worry his pro-Putin rhetoric signals reduced U.S. commitment. However, some remain cautiously optimistic, hoping Trump’s “peace through strength” approach could still deter Russia without undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty. The War Zone CNA NPR

Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 13, injure 89 over past day.  Russian attacks across Ukraine in the past day killed 13 and injured 89, according to Ukrainian authorities on Friday. In Zaporizhzhia, nine people died and 42 were injured following five strikes that damaged buildings and a cancer hospital. In Donetsk Oblast’s Kramatorsk, two people were killed, and six injured. Odesa saw a mass drone attack, leaving one dead and eight injured. Russian forces also struck Kharkiv, injuring 25 people, and targeted Kyiv, though no damage or casualties were reported there. These attacks struck multiple residential and public facilities across Ukraine. Kyiv Independent

Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia kills 9, injures 42, damages hospital.  Russian forces attacked Zaporizhzhia on Tuesday, killing nine people, including a 1-year-old, and injuring 42 others, officials said. Five guided bombs struck, partially destroying homes and damaging a cancer hospital. President Volodymyr Zelensky called on allies for increased air defenses and the removal of restrictions on strikes inside Russia. Zaporizhzhia, often targeted by Russian attacks, previously endured a deadly strike on Nov. 5, which killed six and injured 23. Search and rescue operations continue, with potential for rising casualties.  Reuters Kyiv Independent

Russia strikes Odesa Oblast, killing 1, injuring 9. Russian forces conducted a mass drone attack on Odesa Oblast overnight on Friday, killing one person and injuring nine, officials said. The attack damaged residential buildings, shattered school windows, and ignited gas pipes. Russia has increased strikes on the region’s infrastructure, with prior attacks damaging civilian vessels and targeting port facilities. Kyiv Independent

Russian attack on Kharkiv injures 25. Russia launched a deadly attack on Kharkiv early on Friday, hitting a 12-story apartment building in Saltivskyi district, injuring 25 and sparking a fire, officials said. Search efforts continue as some may be trapped. Additional strikes damaged buildings, vehicles, and historic sites without further casualties. Kharkiv, near Russia’s border, faces intensified aerial strikes. Kyiv Independent

Russia steps up mass drone attacks in a bid to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.  As Russia’s war on Ukraine nears 1,000 days, Moscow has intensified drone strikes, deploying waves of drones nightly to stretch Ukraine’s air defenses. On Thursday, Russian drones attacked Kyiv in an eight-hour assault, damaging a hospital and residential buildings, injuring at least two people. Moscow’s use of decoy drones further complicates Ukrainian defenses, depleting resources as actual warheads follow.  New York Times CNN Associated Press 

Russia’s Saratov targeted by Ukrainian drone, oil refinery reportedly hit.  A Ukrainian drone targeted Saratov, Russia, on Friday, with air defenses reportedly downing it over the city, officials said. Debris fell in the Zavodsky district, home to the Saratov Oil Refinery. While officials reported no damage or casualties, local residents claimed the strike hit the refinery, sparking a fire. Kyiv Independent

Donald Trump Sees Ukraine as Europe's Problem: Ex-General. Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, a Cipher Brief expert, warned that Europe may need to shoulder the burden of supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russia after Donald Trump’s reelection. Speaking to Newsweek, Hodges expressed doubts about Trump’s commitment to aiding Ukraine, citing Trump’s past actions and statements. Hodges believes that the risk of further Russian aggression grows without U.S. support, urging Europe to “rise to the challenge.” He criticized both Trump and President Joe Biden for lacking a comprehensive strategy to aid Ukraine effectively, noting Biden’s delays in providing critical long-range weapons like ATACMS. Hodges stressed that robust, long-term strategic planning is essential to stabilize the region and prevent inconsistent support from undermining Ukraine’s defense. Newsweek

Trump will scrutinize Biden’s priorities on Ukraine. After Russia’s invasion in February 2022, the U.S. quickly committed support to Ukraine, with Congress approving over $112 billion in military and economic aid. When this funding ran out, securing an additional $61 billion took months, facing opposition from Republicans concerned about extensive financial support. Anticipating a shift with Donald Trump’s presidential win, Biden’s administration has taken steps to secure long-term assistance for Ukraine. In the summer of 2024, NATO assumed a larger role in coordinating Ukraine’s defense, previously led by America. President Joe Biden seeks to allocate all remaining Ukraine funds to ensure none will be left at Trump’s discretion. The G7 also pledged a $50 billion loan to Ukraine, $20 billion of which will be U.S.-funded starting in December. This aid draws from interest on frozen Russian assets, allowing taxpayer relief. Experts suggest Biden may authorize strikes within Russia before leaving office, potentially impacting Trump’s policy direction. National Public Radio

Russian Army Major General Klimenko Killed in Ukraine. Russian Major General Pavel Klimenko, commander of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, was killed in Ukraine, as confirmed by his sisters. Klimenko, aged 47, faced allegations of organizing torture and extorting money from Russian servicemen to assign them safer rear positions, according to an investigation by ASTRA, an independent Russian news media outlet founded after the full-scale invasion. He reportedly forced troops in occupied Donetsk to join assault groups. Russian bloggers criticized Klimenko for the high casualties under his command. His death reflects broader dissatisfaction among soldiers’ families. Russia has officially confirmed the deaths of seven generals since the invasion. Militarnyi

Ukraine is expected to reopen one airport by end of January 2025.  Ukraine aims to reopen one of its major airports, either Lviv or Kyiv’s Boryspil, by January 2025, according to Crispin Ellison from Marsh McLennan, speaking at the Kyiv International Economic Forum on Thursday. Ukraine’s airspace has been closed since Russia's 2022 invasion, but efforts are underway to restore air travel partially. Insurance challenges make Lviv the more feasible choice, though President Volodymyr Zelensky prefers reopening Boryspil. A decision will consider both the security situation and air defense capabilities. This plan aligns with Ukraine's broader roadmap for airspace reopening, though Eurocontrol forecasts restrictions potentially lasting until 2029. Kyiv Independent

UK blacklists mercenary groups in Africa in latest sanctions against Russia. The United Kingdom announced 56 new sanctions against Russia on Thursday, targeting mercenary groups in Africa linked to Moscow and individuals involved in Russia’s military efforts and a 2018 nerve agent attack in Salisbury. This is the largest UK sanctions package since May 2023, aiming to hinder Russia’s military capabilities in Ukraine and disrupt its destabilizing actions in Africa. Sanctions include the Wagner Group’s successor, Africa Corps, marking the first time a G7 nation has directly sanctioned this group. Foreign Secretary David Lammy emphasized that these measures are intended to weaken Russia's "corrosive foreign policy." Al Jazeera

Zelensky's office deputy head traveled to Russia at least 9 times after 2014, media investigation shows. Oleh Tatarov, the deputy head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office, reportedly traveled to Russia at least nine times from 2014 to 2019, despite Ukraine suspending flights to Russia after the Kremlin’s initial invasion of Ukraine 10 years ago. An investigation by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty revealed Tatarov's trips, primarily via Belarus, and one visit to Russian-occupied Crimea in 2015. Tatarov, a former official under pro-Kremlin President Viktor Yanukovych, faced prior bribery charges that were later dismissed. Zelensky has defended Tatarov against criticism, citing his contributions to Ukraine’s security, and has not dismissed him despite the controversies surrounding his past connections and activities. Kyiv Independent

Google removed photos of Ukraine's military sites from its map. Google has removed images of Ukraine’s military sites from its map service, following concerns from Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's Counter-Disinformation Center, who noted that recent updates had displayed sensitive defense locations. Kovalenko warned that even older satellite photos could help Russia infer strategic details. Google said it does not publish the latest images of war zones and clarified that the displayed images were over a year old and sourced publicly. Kyiv Independent

ISW: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, Nov. 7. Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to influence President-elect Donald Trump’s foreign policy for a Russia–US reset favoring Russian interests, seeking lifted sanctions and reduced US support for Ukraine. A failed Russian assault near Bilohorivka led ultranationalist milbloggers to criticize military leadership’s exaggerated battlefield claims and command failures. Russian commanders, including Major General Pavel Klimenko, were recently killed in Ukraine, highlighting ongoing combat losses. Ukrainian authorities report a rise in Russian executions of Ukrainian POWs in 2024, especially in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian strikes and Western sanctions are reportedly undermining Russia's energy industry, halting refinery operations due to repair challenges.

Battlefield update: Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhov. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Trump’s return is terrible news for Ukraine. Europe should step into the breach – but will it?  Timothy Garton Ash argues that Donald Trump’s return threatens Ukraine and Europe, urging Europe to fill the potential void left by diminished U.S. support. While Ukrainian leaders hope Trump’s unpredictability might increase support, Garton Ash believes there’s a higher likelihood Trump will pressure Ukraine into a settlement favoring Russia. Europe, however, faces internal divisions: Germany’s coalition collapsed, and pro-Trump sentiments are growing in countries like Hungary and Slovakia. With limited time before Trump’s inauguration, Garton Ash stresses that a united European defense strategy is essential but uncertain amidst political disarray. The Guardian

Opinion: Biden needs to Trump-proof US support for NATO, Ukraine.  Dov S. Zakheim notes that Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sparked serious concerns among U.S. allies in Europe, particularly about his stance on Ukraine. Trump has signaled he may push for negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow, which could mean concessions of Ukrainian territory, aligning with his favorable view of Vladimir Putin. This possibility has Eastern European nations, especially Ukraine, anxious over the potential loss of critical U.S. military support. In response, the Biden administration is urged to expedite military aid and remove restrictions on European support to strengthen Ukraine’s position before any potential pressure from Trump to negotiate emerges. The Hill

Opinion:  The Guardian view on Ukraine after Trump’s victory. With Donald Trump’s presidential win, Ukraine faces deepened uncertainty. Trump’s isolationist stance and ties to Vladimir Putin have alarmed Kyiv, underscored by Russia’s immediate drone assault following Trump’s victory. Trump has pledged to quickly end the war, with plans aligning with Putin’s terms: allowing Russia to retain occupied territories and blocking Ukraine’s NATO membership. Meanwhile, Biden’s administration is scrambling to expedite $9 billion in military aid before Trump’s inauguration, as future U.S. support looks uncertain. With European support potentially destabilized, Ukrainians may increasingly consider a negotiated end, fearing that solely military solutions may no longer be sustainable. The Guardian

AMERICAS

ANALYSIS–Is it over for the US-led postwar order?  Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda may threaten the western-led multilateral world order. The Financial Times quotes an unnamed “senior EU official” as assessing Trump’s reelection as “very, very bad for everyone,” not only Europe but the rest of the world. But many leaders in the developing world disagree, contending that as the U.S. recedes from the world stage, so-called middle powers like Brazil and Indonesia have the opportunity to reshape the world. Two global summits are coming up: the COP climate talks in Baku and the G20 leaders’ annual meeting in Rio de Janeiro, and now their relevance is in doubt because of Trump’s well-known disdain for multilateral gatherings.  Financial Times

ANALYSIS–America’s allies brace for brinkmanship, deals—and betrayal.  Following Donald Trump’s election win, global leaders like Volodymyr Zelensky and Benjamin Netanyahu quickly sought his favor, each motivated by distinct needs. Zelensky, wary of Trump’s unpredictable stance on the war in Ukraine, praised Trump’s “decisive leadership,” hoping to secure support as Ukraine faces battlefield setbacks. Netanyahu, anticipating a possible boost for Israel’s regional conflicts, praised Trump’s “comeback.” Yet, allies worry Trump’s unpredictability could weaken U.S. alliances, especially if he pursues isolationist policies or demands more European defense spending. Trump’s volatile approach, including a “madman” stance on China and Iran, could embolden adversaries while straining America’s post-war alliance network. The Economist

Pentagon’s Austin says stance unchanged on Guantanamo Bay plea deals for 9/11 suspects.  Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Thursday reaffirmed his stance on having the authority to decide the fate of plea deals struck by Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the alleged architect of the Sept. 11 attacks, and two accomplices held at Guantanamo Bay. Earlier this year, Austin rescinded plea deals made by the Pentagon with the detainees, but a U.S. military judge recently ruled that Austin's action was too late, keeping the plea deals valid. Austin has not confirmed whether he will appeal this decision but maintains his belief that he should have final authority over such decisions. Pentagon spokesperson Major General Patrick Ryder noted that Austin is reviewing the judge’s ruling. Mohammed is one of Guantanamo's most high-profile detainees, accused of orchestrating the 9/11 attacks that killed nearly 3,000 people. Reuters

Children, people across U.S. receive directed, racist text messages referencing slavery, police launch investigations. The FBI, the Justice Department, and the FCC have launched investigations into racist, slavery-themed text messages that were anonymously sent to Black individuals, including middle and high school students, in multiple U.S. states this week. The messages, some instructing recipients to report to a “plantation” and mentioning the presidential administration, caused widespread alarm. Some of the texts even used the recipients’ names. Many victims, including students at universities such as Clemson and Fisk, felt fear and unease. Civil rights groups, including the NAACP and Southern Poverty Law Center, condemned the messages, with leaders calling the threats deeply disturbing and unacceptable. Wireless providers are working to block the messages as law enforcement continues to investigate. Associated Press CNN New York Times Al Jazeera NPR

Trump win sparks fears among migrants abroad, but it likely won’t stop migration. Donald Trump’s presidential victory has triggered concerns for migrants worldwide, as his pledge to restrict immigration could push many toward dangerous, illegal routes through smugglers. Many migrants, from Venezuelans to Chinese to Senegalese, have already sacrificed possessions and sold their homes to reach the U.S., hoping for a legal pathway like the CBP One program. Trump, however, plans to dismantle this program, prompting some migrants to consider alternative options, including hiring smugglers linked to organized crime. According to the U.N.’s International Organization for Migration, 3.6% of the global population, approximately 281 million people, are international migrants. In Mexico, concerns over deportations are high, especially with 11 million Mexicans in the U.S., of whom 5 million reportedly lack legal status. Mass deportations could destabilize both Mexican families reliant on U.S. remittances and Mexico’s economy. Mexican aid organizations and shelters, already strained, lack the capacity to support large numbers of deportees. Experts say Mexico must prepare for increased pressure, as it could become a holding country for U.S.-deported migrants. Associated Press

Activists in Haiti urge ceased deportations as gang violence, poverty surge. Haitian activists are urging a temporary halt to deportations to Haiti due to extreme gang violence and worsening poverty. In the past month, around 61,000 Haitians were deported from the Dominican Republic alone, with additional deportees from the U.S., Turks & Caicos, Jamaica, and the Bahamas. Many deportees face homelessness, as gangs control 85% of Port-au-Prince, and they cannot return to their houses. Some live near the border with the Dominican Republic, hoping to re-cross. Conditions for detained Haitians in the Dominican Republic are reportedly dire, with overcrowded facilities lacking basic resources. Some migrants are also at risk from smugglers who demand ransoms. Activists warn that deported Haitians urgently need essential supplies and fear more challenges with Donald Trump’s potential mass deportation policies. Associated Press 

Mexico seems to drop its ‘hugs, not bullets’ strategy as violence engulfs the nation. Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, appears to be shifting away from the “hugs, not bullets” approach of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, by increasingly using military force against violent drug cartels. While Sheinbaum has avoided directly rejecting the slogan, her administration has engaged in several bloody confrontations with cartels, some resulting in civilian casualties, including incidents in which migrants were mistaken for criminals. Unlike López Obrador, who avoided major confrontations to prevent bloodshed, Sheinbaum's government has seen clashes with high death tolls among cartel members and no casualties on the military side. Cartels, now heavily involved in migrant smuggling, have also diversified their operations, reportedly recruiting foreign fighters and using migrants as human shields. Experts say the shift in strategy reflects increased U.S. pressure and is a response to cartels’ expanded influence. However, critics argue that militarizing law enforcement has led to unnecessary violence against civilians, as Mexican soldiers are not well-trained for police duties. Associated Press 

Mexican police discover 11 bodies dumped by a highway in country’s south, 4 more in Acapulco. Police in southern Mexico’s bloody Guerrero state found 11 bodies, including two minors, on Wednesday. They had been dumped along a highway near Chilpancingo, a city plagued by cartel violence. The bodies, possibly dismembered and bagged, were discovered after authorities received a tip about an abandoned truck. Chilpancingo has seen intense conflict as rival cartels, the Tlacos and the Ardillos, battle for control. Just last month, the city's mayor was beheaded a week after taking office. In the nearby resort town of Acapulco, police found four bodies, all strangled, in a parked car following a tip-off. Gang violence has escalated in Chilpancingo, with public displays of power by criminal groups becoming common. Last year, one organized crime group hijacked a government vehicle and took police hostage to secure the release of detained members. Associated Press Reuters BBC   

Opinion: An Alliance of America’s Greatest Foes Is Getting Tighter.  The alliance among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea is intensifying, focused on shared military support and technology transfer, forming what some call an “arsenal of autocracy.” North Korea has supplied Russia with artillery for its war in Ukraine, while Iran and China have provided missiles, drones, and industrial support to bolster Russian defense production. Autocracies are also collaborating on advanced weapons development; Iran now produces drones on Russian soil, and China supplies critical microchips. While less integrated than Western alliances, this cooperation strengthens their military capabilities, posing an increasingly significant challenge to the West in a potential prewar environment. Bloomberg

EUROPE

Putin Lavishes Praise on Trump, Saying Russia Is ‘Open’ to Restored Ties. President Vladimir Putin on Thursday congratulated Donald Trump on winning the U.S. presidential election, praised him for showing bravery when a gunman tried to assassinate him, and said Moscow was ready to talk to the Republican president-elect. "I would like to congratulate him on his election as president," Putin told the Valdai discussion club in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. Trump said during campaigning that he could bring peace in Ukraine within 24 hours if he was elected but has given few details on how he would seek to end the biggest land war in Europe since World War II. Putin said what Trump had said in the campaign about resolving the Ukraine crisis deserved attention. He said that if Trump wanted to resume contacts, then Russia was ready for discussion. New York Times Al Jazeera Reuters BBC  Deutsche Welle USA Today

Russia's Putin says NATO is an anachronism. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday described NATO as a "blatant anachronism" needed by the United States to dominate its zone of influence. Putin, setting out his worldview in a speech to a conference of Russian experts, said the alliance was subject to "the diktat of the older brother," meaning the U.S. He contrasted that with the BRICS group of countries, which held a summit in Russia last month and which Putin held out as an example of constructive cooperation. Reuters

How Russia Openly Escalated Its Election Interference Efforts. Russia openly interfered in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, abandoning previous attempts to obscure its involvement. The Kremlin disseminated fabricated videos and misinformation targeting the electoral process and Democratic candidates. High-profile Russian actors like Mira Terada and John Mark Dougan produced false content, amplifying disinformation through numerous websites. Social media platforms, despite efforts to moderate, faced challenges in containing the spread. Russia’s aim appeared to be destabilizing U.S. support for Ukraine and bolstering pro-Trump engagement. Although American agencies have tried to counteract this interference, the persistence of foreign influence efforts, particularly from Russia, remains a significant concern. New York Times

Sanctions are sinking Russia’s flagship gas project. Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project, intended to boost liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports after halting pipeline gas to Europe, faces significant obstacles due to Western sanctions. These sanctions, which block access to technology, tankers, and potential buyers, have delayed Arctic LNG 2’s full operations until at least 2025. Although Novatek, the project’s operator, adapted to some restrictions—like replacing U.S. turbines with Chinese ones—shipping remains a challenge. Without the specialized Arc7 ice-breaking tankers, Novatek uses older, less-reliable vessels known as a “dark fleet.” Sanctions have deterred buyers, especially China, despite substantial discounts. This contrasts with oil sanctions, as LNG trade relies on fewer tankers and specialized ports, making enforcement easier. If sustained, sanctions could hinder Russia’s LNG ambitions, aided by growing non-Russian LNG supplies expected to stabilize global markets by 2025.  The Economist

ANALYSIS–A flailing economy has left the EU exposed to Trumpian outbursts. Donald Trump’s return has jolted Europe, which was unprepared for the resurgence of Trumpian “America First” policies amid its own economic struggles. European leaders fear Trump may reduce support for Ukraine, forcing Europe to shoulder greater defense costs. With Europe’s economy already strained by rising expenses like green energy, subsidies, and pensions, Trump’s possible tariffs on EU exports could exacerbate financial pressures. Recent EU talks on economic reforms were overshadowed, with leaders like Emmanuel Macron reiterating calls for European “strategic autonomy.” However, countries like Poland and the Baltics prefer an unpredictable U.S. to reliance on inconsistent European powers. Trump’s presidency may pressure Europe to re-evaluate its security and economic strategies, though it remains unclear if this will lead to stronger EU unity or further division. The Economist

Moscow: Berlin coalition woes stem from lack of access to Russia gas.  Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Thursday attributed the collapse of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition to Germany’s shift from Russian gas supplies. Zakharova criticized Germany’s energy policy, stating that reliance on American energy over Russian gas has weakened its economy and driven companies abroad. She described Germany as a "banana republic" under American influence. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Germany has reduced its reliance on Russian energy, leading to an energy crisis and rising costs. Russian President Vladimir Putin also condemned Germany's choice to abandon relatively cheap Russian gas supplies. Deutsche Presse-Agentur

Security hawk says Russia will take more steps up nuclear 'ladder of escalation.'  At the Valdai forum in Sochi, Russian security expert Sergei Karaganov warned that Russia would continue to escalate its nuclear signals to the West. Karaganov, who has urged lowering the nuclear-use threshold, stated these steps are meant to "sober up" Western nations, particularly Europe. He noted that President Vladimir Putin has expanded scenarios for potential nuclear use, responding to perceived Western threats. Karaganov argued Russia’s approach aims to restore Western fear of nuclear conflict, claiming that Europe risks igniting a world war by supporting Ukraine in what he termed a proxy war against Russia. Reuters

U.S. citizen arrested in Germany due to accusations of spying for China.Germany's federal prosecutor announced the Thursday arrest of an American citizen, identified as Martin D., in Frankfurt on suspicion of spying for China. The suspect, who recently worked for the U.S. Armed Forces in Germany, allegedly contacted Chinese agencies earlier this year and offered to share sensitive U.S. military information. However, it is not believed that he transmitted any data before his arrest. This detainment follows several recent cases in Germany involving individuals suspected of spying for Beijing, including a Chinese national accused of providing information on an air freight hub and a European Parliament worker tied to a far-right German lawmaker. Associated Press CBS Al Jazeera NBC 

Belarus’ Lukashenko frees 31 political prisoners, though crackdown on dissent continues.  The office of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced on Thursday that the authoritarian leader has pardoned and released 31 political prisoners, many of them suffering with health issues. The released prisoners were convicted of “extremist” crimes, a term often used to describe opposition figures and protesters from the 2020 election unrest. Lukashenko, who has led a harsh crackdown on opposition in his country, has freed a total of 115 political prisoners this year, though repression continues as over 100 new arrests were made recently. The motive for these releases, occurring just ahead of presidential elections in January, remains unclear. Human rights group Viasna reports that Belarus still holds 1,278 political prisoners, including Nobel Peace Prize winner Ales Bialiatski. Associated Press Reuters 

Opinion: Sanctions evasion helps Russia dominate former Soviet republics. Janusz Bugajski argues that Russia is leveraging sanctions evasion to strengthen its influence over former Soviet republics like Georgia, Moldova, and Kyrgyzstan. Despite Western sanctions imposed after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow’s economic reach in Central Asia and the South Caucasus has grown through trade schemes and financial loopholes. For instance, Kyrgyzstan benefits from rising Russian investments and sanctions-evasion activities. Bugajski urges the U.S. to increase pressure on these countries to reduce Russian dependence, warning that unchecked evasion could fuel Russia’s efforts to reassert control over its neighbors. The Hill

MIDDLE EAST

Yemen’s Houthis down what bystanders describe as an American drone, U.S. military investigating. Yemen's Houthi rebels reportedly shot down an aircraft, possibly an American spy drone, over the al-Jawf province early on Friday. Low-quality footage uploaded online appears to show a flaming aircraft plummeting to the earth, with debris burning on the ground, and witnesses describe the aircraft as American. The U.S. military acknowledged the video and said it is investigating but has not specified the aircraft type. The Iran-backed Houthis have not commented on the incident, but fighters usually take hours, or even days, to claim responsibility. The Houthis have previously downed American MQ-9 Reaper drones in Yemen. Associated Press

ASIA & OCEANIA

There are no winners in trade, tariff or industrial wars, says China's top diplomat to U.S.  Xie Feng, the Chinese ambassador to the U.S., on Thursday spoke out against trade wars, and called for cooperation between the two superpowers amid concerns that Donald Trump's election victory could lead to renewed U.S.-China trade tensions. Speaking at a U.S.-China Business Council dinner in Shanghai, Xie underscored the idea that both nations should see their differences as opportunities for mutual learning, not confrontation, and highlighted the success of U.S. companies in China, such as McDonald's and Starbucks, as examples of beneficial cooperation. He cautioned against starting wars over any sector, from science and technology to industry and tariffs. Trump has proposed a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, and Xie warned that any efforts to suppress China would face resistance. Analysts suggest Beijing would retaliate aggressively if a new trade war begins. While China aims to strengthen self-sufficiency and economic security, economists estimate that even a high 60% U.S. tariff would have a limited direct impact on China’s GDP. Reuters

China protests after Philippine president signs new laws to assert South China Sea claims, sovereignty. China on Friday summoned the Philippine ambassador to protest two new Philippine laws, the Maritime Zones Act and the Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act, which assert the country's maritime rights over disputed South China Sea areas. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed these laws to bolster the nation's territorial claims, define maritime entitlements, and protect resources within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), asserting the right for Filipinos, especially fishermen, to operate without harassment. Beijing claims these laws illegally include areas like Scarborough Shoal and the Spratly Islands, which it refers to as Huangyan Island and Nansha Islands. China called the laws a “serious infringement” on its sovereignty and urged Manila to avoid actions that could increase tensions. China has previously enacted domestic laws over the South China Sea, such as a coast guard law allowing detentions for alleged trespassing. Beijing also routinely confronts foreign vessels within its claimed areas. Despite challenges in implementing the laws, Philippine officials believe international support will reinforce their position against Beijing’s claims. Reuters

Taiwanese coast guard to mobilize 'people power' to report China’s intimidation activities. Taiwan's coast guard on Friday announced rewards to incentivize citizens to report Chinese activities at sea, including sightings of warships or submarines, as part of efforts to address limited manpower and counter China's "grey zone" tactics in the Taiwan Strait. The rewards range from T$200,000 ($6,245) for reporting serious crimes like piracy, murder, or hostage-taking, and T$50,000 for reporting illegal entry by Chinese nationals, to T$3,000 for verified sightings of Chinese warships. This initiative follows increased Chinese military and coast guard activity near the self-governing island, which China claims as its territory. The coast guard, criticized for past oversight in detecting small Chinese vessels, has been investing in larger, modern ships, some of which can be armed if necessary. Reuters

Opinion: How deployment of North Korean soldiers to Russia is shifting attitudes in China.  Maria Siow argues that Chinese public opinion towards North Korea, historically marked by derision, is changing from disdain to admiration following Pyongyang’s decision to send troops to support Russia in the Ukraine war. Previously, North Korea was seen by many Chinese nationals as erratic, impoverished, and dynastic, with its leadership often ridiculed. Some older Chinese viewed North Korea nostalgically, comparing it to China in the Mao era, but the majority considered it to be a sort of “shameless neighborhood hooligan.” In recent weeks, however, social media in China has seen a surge of praise for this formally disgraceful regime, with many commending North Korea’s “guts” and calling it a “heroic nation” over its military support for Russia. This shift reflects Chinese resentment toward perceived U.S. unilateralism and NATO’s actions, which some believe led to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite the newfound respect, some caution against North Korean involvement in the conflict, fearing escalation in Europe or on the Korean Peninsula. Experts also warn that these warm sentiments could flip; battlefield challenges could result in heavy casualties or defections by North Korean troops, which might reverse Chinese public opinion on North Korea once more. South China Morning Post 

Japanese defense chief tours visiting South Korean warship. Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani made a historic visit to a South Korean warship, the ROKS Marado, during its port call near Tokyo on Wednesday, highlighting strengthened Japan-South Korea defense ties amid mounting regional tensions. Nakatani stressed the importance of Tokyo-Seoul security cooperation, as North Korea recently launched missiles and tested an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S. This visit marks improved relations between Japan and South Korea, who have worked to rebuild ties, with support from the U.S., following a string of historical grievances dating back to the early-twentieth century. The two countries, along with Washington, have agreed to deepen trilateral security cooperation and hold annual summits. Associated Press 

U.N. cautions that Myanmar’s embattled Rakhine state is facing looming famine.The U.N. Development Program (UNDP) has warned that Myanmar's Rakhine state, home to the Rohingya minority, could face an imminent famine due to severe economic collapse and escalating conflict. A "perfect storm" of factors—such as restricted trade, hyperinflation, lack of income, dwindling food production, and inadequate essential services—has pushed the region to the brink of disaster. Since Myanmar's military seized power in 2021, the Rakhine-based Arakan Army has gained control of much of the region, worsening conflict with the government forces. UNDP reported that Rakhine’s economy is nearly paralyzed, with critical sectors like agriculture and construction at a standstill due to blockades and lack of resources. Food production is predicted to meet only 20% of local needs by early 2025, potentially leaving over 2 million people at risk of starvation. UNDP calls for immediate action to reopen trade routes, allow humanitarian aid, and secure financial support for agriculture. Without urgent intervention, 95% of Rakhine's population could suffer extreme food scarcity, unemployment, and severe isolation. Associated Press

AFRICA

New insurgents from Mali and Niger infiltrate Nigeria.  A new insurgent group called Lakurawas is infiltrating northwestern Nigeria from neighboring Niger and Mali, Nigeria’s military said Thursday.  The military spokesperson said the group is an affiliate of militias from the Sahel and is linked to the July 2023 coup in Niger.  Its ideology is unknown. Nigeria has been dealing with Boko Haram and its offshoot Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in its northeast. The Sahel state Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, are all currently run by military juntas that have turned away from traditional Western security alliances. Russia has moved to fill the gap, with the revamped version of its Wagner Group operating in the Sahel under the GRU, Russian military intelligence. Reuters 

South Africa recloses border with Mozambique, where protests and bloodshed are intensifying. South Africa briefly reopened its border with Mozambique on Thursday, but quickly blocked it again due to escalating post-election violence in Mozambique, where protesters are clashing with police over alleged election rigging favoring the ruling Frelimo party. 15 workers from the Mozambican border post reportedly crossed over, requesting refuge and protection, according to South Africa’s Border Management Agency. At least 20 people have died in protests, and hundreds have been injured or arrested since the instability erupted in late October. Opposition leader Venancio Mondlane, who received 20% of the vote, fled the country after two aides were killed. Protesters blocked streets in Maputo on Thursday in the largest demonstration yet, prompting police to use tear gas on thousands of people. Protesters chanted anti-Frelimo slogans, blocked streets, burned tires, and expressed frustration over limited economic opportunities in a resource-rich country. South Africa has advised its citizens to avoid non-essential travel to its neighbor. Amid disrupted internet services, Mozambique's authorities warned they might deploy the army to control the unrest, which human rights groups are calling the worst crackdown in years. Associated Press Reuters VOA 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Philippine officials say disinformation is the ‘most pressing’ issue threatening South China Sea claims. Philippine military and coastguard officials say they consider disinformation to be the country's biggest challenge in asserting its South China Sea claims. To counter foreign narratives, notably China's, Manila has adopted a transparency initiative by sharing real-time information on maritime encounters via social media and public statements. A spokesman for the Philippine Coast Guard noted that China has invested significantly in countering these efforts, a development that indicates the effectiveness of Manila’s initiative in rallying international and domestic support. A report by AidData found up to 10,000 false accounts spreading pro-China sentiments, attempting to sway public opinion and painting the U.S. as a force eroding Philippine sovereignty. Claims circulating online suggest that the Philippines' stance in the South China Sea, influenced by Washington, will potentially lead to conflict. China has denied allegations of cyberattacks on Philippine government websites and dismissed claims of a disinformation campaign. Officials stress the importance of cyber defense and transparency to protect national security and public perception, warning that neglecting these efforts could let Beijing regain control of the narrative. A recent survey shows strong domestic support for the initiative, with seven out of ten Filipinos opposing pro-China candidates in future elections. South China Morning Post 

North Korean hackers reportedly targeting crypto firms with Mac-focused malware in phishing attempt.A new report by cybersecurity firm SentinelOne reveals that the North Korean hacker group BlueNoroff, linked to Pyongyang’s notorious Lazarus, is targeting Mac users in the cryptocurrency industry with malware in an attempt to steal funds. This campaign, dubbed "Hidden Risk," involves phishing emails that use fake crypto-related headlines and PDF links to trick users into downloading a malicious app disguised as a legitimate PDF document. Once installed, the app installs a backdoor on the device. BlueNoroff, a subgroup within North Korea's Reconnaissance General Bureau, has been known to target cryptocurrency firms. Unlike previous sophisticated tactics, "Hidden Risk" uses simpler phishing emails without personal context, but still manages to bypass security by hijacking valid Apple Developer IDs, allowing their malware to appear authenticated. They’ve also created a network of fake websites and used platforms like NameCheap and Brevo to bypass spam filters. The hackers' ongoing efforts come in the wake of previous attacks on cryptocurrency firms. The FBI issued a warning in September about North Korea's use of sophisticated social engineering to infiltrate such companies. The Record BleepingComputer Hackread 

China-linked hacker group Mirrorface expands operations to Europe, but maintains focus on Japan. The hacking group MirrorFace, a cyber organization believed to be linked to China, has expanded its target range by allegedly attacking a diplomatic organization within the European Union, marking its first known operation outside Japan. Slovak cybersecurity firm ESET identified this new incident in its report on Thursday, though it did not divulge the name of the target diplomatic organization. ESET noted that MirrorFace typically focuses on Japanese entities, such as media, political groups, universities, manufacturers, and research institutes. The lure document in this spearphishing attack maintained a Japanese theme, however, with the title “The EXPO Exhibition in Japan in 2025” suggesting that the hackers “remain focused on Japan and events related to it.” Japanese authorities recently warned of increased MirrorFace activity. In addition, other Chinese-linked cyberattacks have impacted the nation, including an intrusion into Tokyo’s cybersecurity agency, and a 2020 hack by Chinese military hackers on Japan’s defense networks, which the U.S. National Security Agency described as highly damaging. The Record The Hacker News CyberScoop  

Federal Reserve cuts key interest rate by a quarter-point amidst turbulence following election. The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by a quarter-point on Thursday, following a previous half-point reduction in September, in response to declining inflation, which now nears the Fed’s 2% target. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that Trump’s recent election win will not influence immediate rate decisions, though concerns of potential White House interference remain. Powell also clarified he wouldn’t resign if Trump requested, as the president lacks the authority to fire him. Despite the rate cuts, market dynamics such as rising Treasury yields have partially offset their impact. With inflation dropping and economic growth steady, the Fed is cautious about further cuts. Trump's proposed tariffs and policies are expected to drive inflation higher, potentially limiting the Fed's ability to continue rate reductions. Powell expressed confidence in continued inflation decline but acknowledged mixed economic signals. The Fed aims to support job market stability and long-term wage gains, despite Americans still feeling the sting of recent high prices. Associated Press NBC USA Today  

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