Report for Friday, November 29, 2024

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Friday, November 29, 2024

Israel, Hezbollah accuse each other of ceasefire violations amid airstrikes

Vladimir Putin threatens to turn Kyiv targets ‘to dust.’

German intel chief says NATO could invoke Article 5 over Russia’s acts of sabotage

Chinese ship suspected of intentionally dragging anchor to sever Baltic Cables

Chinese, Russian military aircraft enter South Korea's air defense zone during joint patrols

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israel, Hezbollah accuse each other of ceasefire violations amid airstrikes. The Israeli military on Thursday conducted an airstrike on a Hezbollah rocket storage facility in southern Lebanon, accusing the group of violating a new ceasefire agreement brokered by the U.S. and France to halt more than a year of fighting. Both sides exchanged accusations of truce violations, with Israel claiming to have seen suspicious activities near the border, and Hezbollah alleging Israeli aggression against Lebanese civilians returning to border villages. The Lebanese army also accused Israel of breaching the armistice multiple times on Wednesday and Thursday. Security forces said Israel’s airstrikes occurred north of the Litani River, close to Baysariyah. The ceasefire agreement, effective for 60 days, allows Israel to maintain forces in southern Lebanon temporarily but prohibits offensive actions. Despite the truce, tensions remain high, with Israel warning of potential escalation if the agreement is breached. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed the military to prepare for intensified conflict if the pact fails. The delicate agreement underscores ongoing regional instability, as Israel continues its military campaign against Hamas in Gaza. Reuters Times of Israel 

Hezbollah fighters fall back after ceasefire, as Lebanese civilians head home. Weary Hezbollah fighters began withdrawing from southern Lebanon on Thursday, following a U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Israel that ended over a year of intense, deadly conflict. As Hezbollah retreated north, displaced Lebanese civilians returned south to survey the destruction of their homes. Nabatieh, a major and affluent commercial hub, was left in ruins by Israeli airstrikes, and its citizens are struggling to take stock of a hazy future. Despite accepting the truce, Hezbollah retains some fighters with light arms in southern villages and vows to monitor Israeli withdrawal closely, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned of intensified military action if the ceasefire is violated. Lebanon is facing significant challenges, including economic collapse and uncertainty over Hezbollah’s future role. Citizens in Nabatieh remain divided, with some hopeful the truce signals a path to peace despite widespread destruction and hardship. Wall Street Journal

After the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, an isolated Hamas could be facing a future without key allies. Hamas's long-time strategy to broaden the Middle East conflict in order to achieve victory against Israel has faltered, particularly after the recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah removed a key ally from the fight. The U.S.-brokered truce is considered as a diplomatic win for the Biden administration, which has long been pressuring Hamas to negotiate a deal that includes releasing hostages. The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who had prioritized escalating the war with Hezbollah and Iran, has left the organization politically weakened and isolated. The group faces internal divisions about its next steps, with some leaders appearing more willing to negotiate a ceasefire, particularly if Israel makes concessions such as withdrawing from Gaza. However, the Jewish state remains skeptical, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu waiting for President-elect Donald Trump to take office before making significant changes to his country’s approach. Hamas's leadership is also in transition, with no clear successor to Sinwar. While its military losses may be easier to address, its political future is more uncertain, with internal factions divided over key issues like governance in Gaza and compromise with Israel. External pressure from Qatar and Turkey may also influence Hamas's willingness to negotiate, though the group remains resistant to surrender. The situation reflects the complexity of achieving a durable resolution to the ongoing conflict. New York Times

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Vladimir Putin threatens to turn Kyiv targets ‘to dust.’ Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on Thursday in Astana, Kazakhstan, that Russia could strike “decision-making centers” in Kyiv with its new Oreshnik hypersonic missile, threatening to “turn targets in Kyiv to dust.” Speaking at a summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, he justified potential attacks as retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory using Western-supplied long-range missiles. Putin claimed the Oreshnik, first used last week in a strike on Dnipro, can vaporize anything at its epicenter. “Everything at the epicenter of the blast disintegrates into fractions and elementary particles. Essentially, it turns to dust,” he stated, emphasizing its ability to penetrate fortified targets. He also suggested that further strikes could hit Kyiv’s government centers and industrial sites. The Russian leader accused the West of “direct involvement” in the war and announced that Russia had begun serial production of the Oreshnik, which he described as a system NATO cannot intercept. Financial Times Al Jazeera Reuters The Guardian Bloomberg

Putin says ‘intelligent and experienced’ Trump capable of finding ‘solutions.’ Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at a press conference in Astana, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, praised U.S. President-elect Donald Trump as an “intelligent and experienced” leader who could “find solutions.” Criticizing outgoing President Joe Biden for authorizing Ukraine’s use of U.S. ATACMS missiles, Putin suggested relations with Washington might improve under Trump. Putin also acknowledged assassination attempts against Trump during the campaign, calling them “absolutely uncivilized,” and criticized the legal challenges Trump faced as “humiliating.” Regarding Ukraine, Putin threatened further use of Russia’s Oreshnik missile against “decision-making centers” in Kyiv, adding, “Today, during the day, anything is possible.” CNN

Latest massive Russian aerial attack cuts power to 1 million homes in Ukraine. Russia launched a massive assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on Thursday, its 11th major attack this year, cutting power to over 1 million households. At least five civilians were killed and 25 injured in the attacks. Strikes targeted power plants in nine regions, with the western areas of Lviv, Volyn, and Rivne most affected. Lviv's governor reported 523,000 people without electricity, while Rivne and Volyn recorded outages affecting 280,000 and 215,000 households, respectively. Kyiv and Mykolaiv also suffered damages. Ukraine’s energy minister, Herman Halushchenko, described the attacks as a "massive blow," prompting emergency power outages nationwide. Missile and drone debris caused disruptions in Kyiv, though no casualties were reported. Air defenses intercepted 79 of 91 missiles and downed 35 drones, but 12 missiles struck energy facilities. The Ukrainian Air Force highlighted Russia’s use of thermal and radar decoys to evade interception. As temperatures hover near freezing, officials warned of prolonged outages, with critical facilities relying on generators to maintain operations. New York Times CNN Associated Press  ABC News Reuters Kyiv Independent NBC News BBCEuronews Politico EU France 24 RFE/RL Financial Times Kyiv Independent

New Target Emerges in Russia’s Attacks on Ukraine’s Grid: Nuclear Facilities. Russia has increasingly targeted electrical substations connected to Ukraine's nuclear power plants, raising concerns of a potential nuclear disaster, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). During its massive assault on Thursday, substations essential for transmitting power to and from Ukraine’s three operational nuclear plants were hit, forcing a reduction in reactor output and disconnecting one plant from the grid. These facilities are vital not only for power distribution but also for cooling reactors and spent fuel. Loss of cooling could result in catastrophic fuel melt and radiological release, experts warn. Since August, this new strategy aims to collapse Ukraine’s nuclear-dependent power grid, which provides two-thirds of the country's electricity. The IAEA has documented extensive damage to substations, warning of the grid's reduced capacity to ensure reactor safety. President Volodymyr Zelensky has highlighted the threat, prompting increased monitoring efforts at nuclear facilities. The risk of a large-scale disaster remains acute. The New York Times Associated Press BBC Kyiv Independent

Biden decries ‘horrific’ Russian attack. President Joe Biden on Thursday reaffirmed U.S. support for Ukraine after a devastating Russian attack involving nearly 200 missiles and drones targeting cities and energy infrastructure. “Russia continues to underestimate the bravery, resilience, and determination for the Ukrainian people. The United States stands with more than 50 countries in support of Ukraine and its fight for freedom,” Biden said. The Hill

Russian drone attacks on Friday injure 8 people, Ukraine says. Russian drone attacks overnight on Friday injured at least eight people and damaged buildings in Kyiv and Odesa. Ukraine's air force intercepted 88 of 132 drones. In Kyiv, fragments struck a pediatric clinic and infrastructure sites, injuring one. Odesa saw damage to 13 buildings and seven injuries. Reuters

Biden to Leave Trump with Billions for Ukraine Weapons. The Biden administration is unlikely to exhaust the $6.5 billion in authorized military aid for Ukraine before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20. This unspent allocation could give Trump more leverage over Ukraine, allowing him to slow or suspend weapon shipments to pressure Kyiv into talks with Russia. Officials warn that halting aid could weaken Ukraine's position on the battlefield and in potential peace talks. The Pentagon faces logistical hurdles, constrained by transfer limits and concerns about depleting U.S. military readiness. Ukraine relies on consistent ammunition supplies. Disruptions will affect the war within weeks. Trump’s nomination of retired Gen. Keith Kellogg as envoy signals a possible shift toward negotiations while maintaining some support for Ukraine. The unspent funds and skepticism from a Republican-controlled Congress about additional aid could leave Ukraine increasingly vulnerable. Officials are more hopeful about spending other authorized amounts – an additional $5 billion to buy new weapons and $2 billion more for long-term equipment contracts. Wall Street Journal

US tells Ukraine to lower conscription age to 18 to stem manpower shortage. The Biden administration urges Ukraine to lower its draft age from 25 to 18, emphasizing the need for more troops to sustain its defense against Russia’s advancing forces. A senior U.S. official stated that Ukraine’s current recruitment levels are insufficient to replace battlefield losses or counter Russia’s growing military strength. The U.S. has provided over $56 billion in military aid but sees manpower as Ukraine’s most critical need. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has resisted calls to lower the mobilization age, citing concerns over demographics and insufficient equipment to support new recruits. Ukrainian officials argue that delays in Western weapon deliveries exacerbate their challenges. Nonetheless, Ukraine said it is seeking to recruit an additional 160,000 troops. The U.S. push comes as Russia advances in eastern Ukraine and the Kursk region, with Moscow bolstered by 11,000 North Korean troops. With President-elect Donald Trump promising to end the war, U.S. officials stress that Ukraine must act quickly to address its manpower shortage. Associated Press Reuters Financial Times Bloomberg

Ukraine says faster military aid is more important than drafting more men. Ukraine emphasized the urgency of faster military aid over increasing mobilization, arguing that equipping already-mobilized troops is the priority. Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi called for quicker delivery of battlefield equipment, countering U.S. suggestions to lower the mobilization age. Presidential adviser Dmytro Lytvyn criticized delays in aid, stating Ukraine cannot offset logistical hesitations with more frontline recruits. Kyiv’s forces are resisting Russian advances in the Donbas region, where Moscow is capturing territory incrementally. Tykhyi dismissed claims of tension over Ukraine’s mobilization strategy, noting it remains a routine topic in defense negotiations with partners. Reuters

Lacking manpower and facing rising desertions, Ukraine resorts to harsh means to force draft dodgers into combat. Ukraine faces a critical manpower shortage as it battles a surging Russian offensive, exacerbated by North Korean reinforcements. With more than 100,000 soldiers charged under Ukraine’s desertion laws since Russia invaded in February 2022, the government has resorted to aggressive measures to bolster its ranks. Territorial recruitment officers patrol public spaces, forcibly detaining draft-eligible men and sending them directly to training centers. Viral videos show men being dragged off the streets, sparking fear among young Ukrainians who now avoid public spaces or rely on apps tracking recruiters' movements. Recent laws to ease the crisis, such as forgiving first-time desertions, have backfired, undermining discipline and prompting some to flee dangerous frontlines. Others, lured by promises of leniency, find themselves trapped. Corruption scandals, including bribes for draft exemptions, further erode trust. Despite glossy recruitment campaigns, enthusiasm has waned. Many new conscripts are unwilling, leaving Ukraine’s frontline units overburdened, struggling to hold against an unrelenting enemy. PBS News Hour The Spectator The Telegraph Kyiv Independent ABC News

Ukraine is relying on drones to hold back Russian advances. Ukraine’s drone units in Pokrovsk are battling relentless Russian advances amid critical manpower shortages. Troops report being heavily outnumbered and lacking infantry to secure defensive positions, allowing Russian forces to exploit gaps. Commanders lament the inadequacy of training and rotations, contrasting with Russia’s consistent reinforcements. The chaos of battle has led to costly errors, with fresh recruits often sent to the frontlines unprepared. Morale is further strained by war crimes, including a recent video showing the execution of Ukrainian prisoners by Russian forces. As soldiers brace for intensified assaults, they express anxiety over potential peace talks under Donald Trump’s presidency. CNN

How will Donald Trump handle the war in Ukraine? Donald Trump’s approach to the war in Ukraine is expected to hinge on striking a deal, but the outcomes remain uncertain and highly divisive. Trump has pledged to end the war within 24 hours of returning to the White House, potentially by cutting aid to Ukraine and pushing Kyiv toward concessions favorable to Russia. This could include ceding occupied territories and dropping NATO ambitions, aligning with suggestions from figures like Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, who opposes further U.S. funding. However, some of Trump’s advisers advocate a stronger stance. National Security Adviser Michael Waltz has proposed using leverage, such as expanded gas exports and increased military aid, to pressure Russia into a favorable settlement. Other advisers suggest maintaining arms supplies to Ukraine to ensure Russia cannot re-escalate post-ceasefire. Europe is divided over its role, with eastern nations more supportive of involvement and western countries hesitant due to logistical and financial burdens. For Ukraine, security guarantees and firm commitments remain crucial. The Economist

Keith Kellogg's Plan to End Ukraine War. Keith Kellogg, appointed by President-elect Donald Trump as special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, has outlined a peace plan prioritizing a negotiated settlement. Coauthored with Fred Fleitz, the plan proposes freezing the conflict along the current front lines, leaving Russia in control of almost 20% of Ukraine’s territory. Future U.S. military aid to Ukraine would be conditional on its participation in peace talks. The plan also suggests delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership in exchange for a comprehensive peace deal with security guarantees. While the U.S. would continue arming Ukraine to prevent further Russian advances, the ultimate goal would be a ceasefire and a verifiable agreement. Kellogg argues this approach provides leverage against Russia, including potential sanctions relief. Critics worry this framework could pressure Ukraine into unfavorable concessions. However, Kellogg defends the strategy as pragmatic, emphasizing Trump’s promise to secure "peace through strength" and prevent further war escalation. Newsweek Axios New York Times Washington Post  Politico Times of India Reuters Semafor USA Today Associated Press Newsweek Al Jazeera Washington Post CNN

Inside Russia’s new Oreshnik missile. Russia’s use of the Oreshnik missile, an updated intermediate-range ballistic missile, in a Nov. 21 strike on Dnipro underscores both military posturing and potential tactical aims. The missile carried six warheads and small submunitions, targeting a weapons factory with minimal reported damage. Experts believe its primary purpose was "saber rattling," showcasing Russian capabilities while stoking fears of escalation. Despite Vladimir Putin’s claims of the missile being unstoppable, Western missile defense systems like the U.S.’s SM-3 and Israel’s Arrow 3 could intercept it. Ukraine lacks these technologies. Analysts note the missile's deployment also serves practical military purposes, disrupting Ukrainian operations, albeit at significant expense and with limited destructive impact. While the Oreshnik highlights Russia’s evolving military strategies, its use without significant explosives suggests a calculated mix of psychological warfare and military demonstration. U.S. officials confirmed advance notification of the strike. Reuters Axios New Scientist New York Times

Russia is unleashing record drone attacks on Ukraine with foam decoys and new Shahed warheads. Russia's drone attacks on Ukraine have intensified, with Moscow deploying record numbers of Shahed drones fitted with thermobaric warheads and foam decoys to overwhelm defenses. This week, swarms of drones were deployed to 17 regions, damaging critical infrastructure in an attack that left over 1 million people without power. Foam decoy drones like the Gerbera exhaust air defenses, while Shaheds deliver devastating payloads, including vacuum bombs. Analysts estimate Russia now produces 100 drones weekly, bypassing sanctions with foreign components. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for stronger sanctions and more air defenses as winter starts in the escalating "war of drones." ABC News

A Trump-Sized Hole Is Looming in Ukraine’s Defenses Against Putin. With Donald Trump poised to take office, concerns mount over the U.S. reducing military aid to Ukraine, potentially leaving Kyiv vulnerable to Russia. Trump’s envoy pick, Keith Kellogg, has suggested cutting off aid unless Ukraine engages in peace talks, which could lead to territorial concessions. Europe faces challenges in filling the potential void, as its defense capabilities are fragmented and slower to scale.  European Union countries are already ramping up production of ammunition and artillery, but it’s unclear if the bloc can sustain those deliveries. The 27-nation bloc is still haggling over how to fund defense increases, which could be as high as $340 billion annually to meet the challenge. Russia continues to escalate its war, outpacing Ukrainian artillery production with domestic manufacturing and North Korean support. Bloomberg Bloomberg

Seven European countries pledge to increase military assistance for Ukraine. The leaders of Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Norway, Poland, and Sweden pledged on Wednesday to increase military assistance to Ukraine in the coming months. Meeting at Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s residence, they emphasized their commitment to bolstering Ukraine’s defense capabilities, including investments in ammunition and support for its defense industry. The joint statement highlighted the countries’ role as leading per capita donors of military aid to Ukraine, reaffirming unwavering support for Kyiv’s victory plan and its pursuit of European integration. The leaders stressed that Russia remains the most direct security threat to Europe and committed to countering Moscow’s aggression through enhanced sanctions, military readiness, and accountability measures. Kyiv Independent Militarnyi

Ukraine will receive over $28 billion in defense support from allies in 2025. Ukraine is set to receive over $28 billion in military assistance from international allies in 2025, according to Defense Minister Rustem Umierov. Key commitments include:

• Baltic States: Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia will contribute 0.25% of GDP.
• United Kingdom: £3 billion annually until 2031.
• Denmark: €2.2 billion in 2025 as part of the €8.7 billion pledge through 2028.
• European Union: €1.9 billion early in 2025 for ammunition, air defense, and defense industry support.
• NATO: €500 million.
• Netherlands: €4 billion for 2024-2026.
• Germany: €4 billion.
• Norway: $2.7 billion.
• United States: $5.5 billion.
• Sweden: $2.5 billion annually under a three-year program. Militarnyi

Russian lawmakers give final nod on record military funding boost. Russia's defense spending for 2025 will rise to $125 billion, or 6.3% of GDP, marking a $26.6 billion increase from 2024. This record allocation surpasses the combined budgets for welfare and education, emphasizing Moscow's focus on sustaining its war in Ukraine and countering NATO. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s parliament has approved $53 billion in defense spending for 2025, constituting a staggering 26% of its GDP. Russia has escalated its rhetoric and military activity, recently testing a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile and revising its nuclear doctrine to allow strikes if attacked by non-nuclear states backed by nuclear powers. The defense budgets reflect the burdens on both countries. While Russia contends with inflation and a weakened economy, Ukraine relies heavily on Western support to bolster its defense capabilities. Al Jazeera

The war in Ukraine is straining Russia’s economy and society. Russia’s economy, heavily shaped by war and sanctions, is under growing strain despite earlier resilience. The ruble hit a 32-month low following U.S. sanctions on Gazprombank, a vital link to global financial systems. Inflation exceeds 9%, with independent measures suggesting a 22% rise in costs for essentials. Russia’s central bank raised rates to 21% but struggles to stabilize the currency or control price surges. Military spending now dominates 30% of the budget, creating labor shortages and inflationary pressures. Public sentiment shows alienation from the war, with many craving pre-war normalcy amid dwindling economic prospects and deepening demographic and social upheaval. Wall Street Journal The Economist Kyiv Independent

Russia’s ruble plunges to its lowest rate since the early weeks of the war in Ukraine. Russia's ruble hit 110 to the dollar on Wednesday, its weakest level since March 2022, following U.S. sanctions targeting 50 Russian banks, including Gazprombank. This marks a 21% drop in the ruble's value against the dollar this year. Inflation, already above 9%, risks surging further. The Central Bank of Russia, with interest rates already at a 21-year high of 21%, faces calls to hike rates further, possibly to 25%, despite recession risks. The Guardian Bloomberg

Russia's economy struggles to find workers as the defense sector poaches staff. Russia faces a severe labor shortage as its economy struggles to balance wartime demands and workforce depletion. Defense sector recruitment and military conscription have drawn workers from civilian industries, leaving understaffed sectors like construction, agriculture, and logistics. Vacancies have surged, with nine openings for every unemployed person in some regions. Salaries in defense-related jobs outcompete civilian wages, further straining the labor market. Migrant restrictions and demographic challenges exacerbate the issue, prompting concerns about future growth, with the economy needing 2.4 million workers by 2030. Economists warn these shortages will hinder long-term development and economic stability. Reuters

Putin’s butter problem could help bring peace to Ukraine. Russia’s economy, burdened by soaring inflation and sanctions due to the war in Ukraine, faces growing discontent among ordinary citizens. Butter thefts, symbolic of rising costs, have surged, with 50 incidents reported weekly. Inflation, compounded by war-focused spending and a weakened ruble, has eroded confidence and strained household budgets. Analysts suggest economic instability could weaken Vladimir Putin’s support and push him toward negotiations. However, the Kremlin’s reliance on military-driven spending complicates the outlook, with some experts arguing a weak ruble benefits defense expenditures. The Telegraph

Ukraine imposes first wartime tax hikes to fight Russian invasion. Ukraine has enacted its first wartime tax increases, aiming to raise $3.4 billion next year for defense funding as the war against Russia nears its 34th month. The measures include raising the war tax on personal income from 1.5% to 5% and imposing new taxes on small businesses, banks, and other financial institutions. Effective Dec. 1, the changes are critical for sustaining military spending, which accounts for half of Ukraine’s annual budget, and securing a $1.1 billion IMF program. Despite its necessity, the move is contentious due to widespread poverty and economic devastation caused by the war. External financing remains crucial. Reuters

Ukraine's top commander vows to boost troops on eastern front after visiting units there. Ukraine’s top commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, pledged on Friday to reinforce troops on the eastern front with reserves, ammunition, and equipment following visits to key positions in Donetsk Oblast. Syrskyi spent time with units near the towns of Pokrovsk and Kurakhhove. Amid intensified Russian advances, he emphasized Ukrainian forces are holding ground and inflicting heavy losses. Moscow claims new gains. Reuters

Displaced Ukrainians ‘returning to occupied hometowns.’ Thousands of Ukrainians displaced by Russia’s invasion are returning to Kremlin-controlled areas like Mariupol due to insufficient housing and aid from Kyiv. Member of parliament Maksym Tkachenko initially claimed 150,000 had returned but retracted the figure, calling it an emotional assumption. Adviser Petro Andryushchenko noted at least 50,000 have returned to Mariupol, citing unaffordable rent and lack of support in Kyiv-controlled areas. Others return temporarily to re-register property under Russian rules to avoid nationalization. Olena Shuliak, the head of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, admit government efforts for displaced persons have failed. With almost four million internally displaced and massive destruction, the challenge persists. The Times

Ukraine’s River of Anguish. The 126th Territorial Defense Brigade has played a pivotal role in Ukraine’s grueling cross-river operations against Russian forces along the Dnipro River in Kherson. Known for elite training by British and NATO forces, the brigade conducts high-risk reconnaissance and assaults, enduring heavy casualties. Journalists embedded with the unit documented harrowing missions, including an assault on Krynky, labeled a "suicide mission," where waves of soldiers faced relentless Russian firepower. Despite severe losses, including half a company in one operation, the brigade's resilience underscores the immense cost of the war as they continue to push against entrenched Russian positions. New York Times

Putin says Russia would use all weapons at its disposal if Ukraine got nuclear weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Thursday in Astana, Kazakhstan, that Russia would use all available weapons if Ukraine obtained nuclear arms, reacting to reports suggesting U.S. consideration of arming Ukraine with such weapons. He dismissed Ukraine's nuclear capabilities but raised concerns about potential "dirty bombs." Ukraine renounced its nuclear arsenal under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in exchange for security assurances from Russia, the U.S., and the UK. Reuters

Nuclear attack unlikely despite Putin's warnings, US intelligence says. A nuclear attack by Russia is deemed unlikely despite President Vladimir Putin's warnings, according to U.S. intelligence assessments. The recent U.S. decision to permit Ukraine to use American long-range ATACMS missiles for strikes deeper into Russia has not significantly increased nuclear risks. Analysts highlight that nuclear weapons provide no clear tactical advantage and would be a last resort for Moscow. Instead, Russia is expected to escalate sabotage and hybrid warfare efforts against Europe and other Western allies. While nuclear concerns have shaped U.S. policy, intelligence indicates that Russia's recent moves, such as deploying North Korean troops, represent a larger escalation risk than nuclear retaliation. Reuters

Biden's last-minute missile moves for Ukraine are coming far too late. President Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory with U.S.-provided long-range missiles, including ATACMS, comes too late to have the optimal impact. Analysts highlight that earlier use of these weapons could have targeted key assets like helicopters, glide-bomb-armed aircraft, and ammunition depots. In anticipation of such strikes, Russia moved many of these assets out of ATACMS range, reducing the missiles' strategic effectiveness. Criticism of Western hesitancy and delayed aid delivery is longstanding, with Ukraine often receiving weapons late or in insufficient quantities. Business Insider 

Biden readies $725 million arms aid package for Ukraine. President Joe Biden's administration is finalizing a $725 million military aid package for Ukraine. The package, expected to include anti-tank weapons, drones, Stinger missiles, and ammunition for HIMARS systems, also features controversial cluster munitions and "non-persistent" land mines that deactivate over time. These munitions will target advancing Russian forces and their supply lines. While the package highlights a ramp-up in aid, the urgency underscores the shifting geopolitical landscape ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration. Reuters Newsweek

South Korean leader meets Ukraine delegation and calls for response to North Korean troops in Russia. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol met with Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov on Wednesday to address North Korea's deployment of over 10,000 troops to support Russia's war in Ukraine. The two nations agreed to share intelligence on North Korean troops and weapon transfers, coordinating closely with the U.S. South Korea, which has so far refrained from sending lethal weapons to Ukraine, warned in October it might reconsider if North Korean-Russian military cooperation escalates. Seoul remains cautious. Experts doubt Russia will initially share advanced nuclear technology with North Korea. Associated Press

US dismisses Russia’s warning to South Korea about supplying arms to Ukraine. South Korea faces escalating threats from Russia over potential arms support for Ukraine amid the deployment of North Korean troops aiding Moscow. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko warned that providing weapons could "fully destroy relations" and promised retaliation. The U.S. dismissed these threats as "gaslighting," with Pentagon spokesperson Patrick Ryder emphasizing that Russia, as the aggressor, could end the war by withdrawing from Ukraine. South Korea condemned Russia-North Korea military ties and pledged "phased countermeasures." President Yoon Suk Yeol hinted at weapons support depending on North Korea's involvement, citing the security risk if Pyongyang gains modern warfare experience. Experts highlight that South Korean arms, on par with U.S. standards, could strengthen Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s advances. Voice of America

Ukraine's flag appears on a big screen during Putin visit to Kazakhstan. During Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Astana, Kazakhstan, the Ukrainian flag briefly appeared on a large LED screen, replacing the Russian flag. Kazakh authorities are investigating the incident as a potential technical glitch or hacker attack. The widely shared online event highlights Kazakhstan's mixed public sentiment on the Russia-Ukraine war. Reuters

Russia's reported daily losses in Ukraine pass 2,000 for the first time. Russia's reported daily losses in Ukraine exceeded 2,000 for the first time on Thursday, with Kyiv citing 2,030 casualties. This surpasses a previous high of 1,950 on Nov.12. These figures come as Russia intensifies pressure on front lines, despite severe economic challenges. Kyiv Independent

Russians try to break through Ukrainian defenses almost 160 times over one day. Ukrainian forces repelled 157 Russian assaults on Wednesday with intense clashes on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove fronts. Russia suffered 1,220 casualties and equipment losses, including 22 artillery systems and 45 drones. Ukrainska Pravda

Ukrainian soldiers repel attempted Russian attack in Zaporizhzhia sector. Ukrainian National Guard troops repelled a Russian offensive on Wednesday in the Zaporizhzhia sector, General Oleksandr Pivnenko reported. Reconnaissance by Ukraine's Spartan Brigade identified a Russian infantry group advancing, and Ukrainian forces swiftly countered. Russian assaults in the area reportedly involve small infantry units with minimal equipment use, focusing on reconnaissance and limited offensives. Kyiv Independent

Russia amasses forces on Kinburn Spit to prevent Ukrainian troops from crossing Dnipro River. Russian forces have concentrated troops and defensive weapons on Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast to prevent Ukrainian forces from crossing the Dnipro River. According to Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn, Russia is fortifying positions and conducting small-scale infantry crossing exercises using river boats in the riverine and island areas. Ukrainska Pravda

Germany offers redeployment of Patriot air defense units to Poland. Germany has offered to redeploy Patriot air defense systems to Poland for six months starting in 2025, aiming to protect a key logistics hub for Ukrainian aid. Poland welcomed the move, which follows a 2022 deployment near the border triggered by a stray missile incident in Przewodów. Reuters

Norway to Help Protect Key Ukraine Aid Hub in Poland. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced Thursday that Norway will share responsibility for protecting the Rzeszow-Jasionka airport, a key hub for military aid to Ukraine. Located near Ukraine's border, the facility handles 90% of Western aid shipments and has faced heightened security threats. Bloomberg

Netherlands hands over 3 Patriot air defense launchers to Ukraine. The Netherlands delivered three Patriot air defense launchers to Ukraine, strengthening its defenses against intensified Russian missile and drone strikes. On Thursday, Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans emphasized the importance of protecting civilians and infrastructure. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine destroys Russian $5 million radar system in Crimea, military intelligence claims. Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) claimed responsibility for destroying a $5 million Russian Podlet radar station near Kotovske in occupied Crimea on Nov. 28. The advanced mobile radar detects low-altitude air targets. This follows reports of explosions across Crimea, with ongoing Ukrainian strikes targeting Russian military assets in the occupied peninsula. Kyiv Independent

Swedish Gripen jets don’t ‘make sense’ for Ukraine yet, Dutch defense chief says. Swedish Gripen jets are on hold for Ukraine. Dutch defense chief Gen. Onno Eichelsheim emphasizes prioritizing F-16s due to Ukraine’s pilot and resource constraints. While Sweden is willing to donate Gripens, the international coalition, including the Netherlands and the U.S., advises focusing on F-16 integration first. Ukrainian pilots are mastering F-16 operations. Efforts now center on ensuring spare parts and maintenance. Breaking Defense

Slovak prime minister accepts Putin's invitation to Moscow Victory Day celebrations. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, known for echoing pro-Kremlin rhetoric, has accepted Vladimir Putin's invitation to attend Moscow’s Victory Day celebrations in May 2025. Fico praised the Red Army's role in defeating fascism, drawing criticism for undermining Western efforts to isolate Putin over Russia’s war in Ukraine. Kyiv Independent

Poland detains German citizen for exporting dual-use goods to Russia. Poland detained a German citizen for exporting dual-use machinery to Russian military plants, violating European Union sanctions. Poland's Internal Security Agency stated the goods were linked to weapon production. EU sanctions since 2022 ban such exports to curb Russia's war capabilities in Ukraine. Reuters

Russian troops operated a torture chamber for Ukrainians in Belarus in 2022, media reports. Russian troops reportedly operated a torture chamber in Naroulia, Belarus, during spring of 2022, targeting Ukrainian prisoners of war and abducted civilians, according to the Belarusian Investigative Center (BIC). Human rights activists described the camp as exceptionally brutal, with accounts of severe beatings and constant screams from detainees. Located on Belarusian state property, the facility likely violated the Geneva Conventions by detaining both civilians and military personnel together. Belarus supported Russia’s war efforts, hosting troops, launching attacks from its territory, and participating in the forced displacement of Ukrainian children from occupied regions. The camp operated until at least May 2022. Kyiv Independent

Russian troops execute 5 Ukrainian prisoners near Novodarivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russian troops executed five Ukrainian prisoners of war on Nov. 24 near Novodarivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ukrainian prosecutors launched criminal proceedings, citing violations of war laws and premeditated murder. A video of the incident was obtained, highlighting increasing POW executions, with 13 cases involving 54 victims reported in October and November alone. Ukrainska Pravda

Jailed Moscow politician urges end to Ukraine war at start of new terrorism trial.  Alexei Gorinov, a Moscow district councilor serving a seven-year sentence for opposing Russia's war on Ukraine, staged an anti-war protest during the start of a new trial against him on November 27, 2024. He displayed a sign in a courtroom cage: “Stop killing. Let’s stop the war.” Gorinov faces new charges of “justifying terrorism” for allegedly discussing Ukraine’s Azov Battalion and the Crimean Bridge attack with cellmates. Denying the charges, Gorinov said, “I was imprisoned for seven years only for speaking out... Life has shown that I was right.” He risks five more years if convicted. Reuters

Inside Ukraine’s kitchen drone labs halting Russia’s war advance. Ukraine has revolutionized modern warfare with drones, leveraging grassroots efforts to counter Russia’s superior military. Civilians, equipped with online training and 3D printers, contribute to decentralized production, creating over a million drones in 2024. The initiative spans thousands of volunteers producing drones and components for frontline use. Projects like “Victory Drones” train citizens to build drones, fostering a “technological militarization of society.” Ukraine’s military now includes dedicated drone strike companies. However, experts warn of Russia’s rapid progress, including autonomous drone swarm capabilities, underscoring the urgency for Ukraine to innovate and scale production to maintain its edge. Euromaidan Press

Top presidential aide says Ukraine ready to host second peace summit soon. Ukraine is preparing to host a second global peace summit to end Russia's invasion, Andriy Yermak, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, said on Thursday. Following the first summit in June, which excluded Russia, a joint peace framework has been developed. Challenges remain, including securing broader global support beyond Western allies and uncertain U.S. policy under President-elect Donald Trump. Reuters

As world leaders discuss peace, Ukrainians ask: How will the economy move on? Ukraine’s post-war economy faces critical challenges, including labor shortages due to conscription and emigration, damaged supply chains, and blocked exports. Businesses like Olteya struggle to plan amid uncertainty, with staff shortages risking closures. Mandatory conscription and brain drain compound issues, with foreign consultants replacing skilled professionals but diverting funds abroad. Export barriers, such as blocked ports and trade restrictions, hinder recovery, while reliance on unpredictable foreign aid complicates long-term investments. Reconstruction demands consistent external support, particularly for housing, infrastructure, IT, and renewable energy. Experts caution that rebuilding will be prolonged and uncertain, given Ukraine’s status as a geopolitical buffer zone. Euronews

Trump ally Tucker Carlson calls Zelensky a ‘dictator,’ criticizes Ukraine’s use of landmines. In an interview, Tucker Carlson, a key ally of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, criticized Ukraine's use of anti-personnel landmines (APLs), calling them indiscriminate and harmful to civilians. Ukrainian officials, including former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, defended their necessity against Russia's invasion, citing compliance with international law. Carlson also described President Volodymyr Zelensky as a "dictator," raising concerns in Kyiv about Trump's potential to reduce U.S. military aid and pressure Ukraine into concessions. Human rights groups, like Human Rights Watch, warn of long-term risks APLs pose to civilians despite their military utility. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, Nov. 27. Ukraine employed Western-provided weapons and complex strike packages, including drones, missiles, and Storm Shadows, in a coordinated assault on Sevastopol, targeting military facilities but with no official confirmation of damages. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev strengthened bilateral ties, signing 20 agreements on economic, energy, and educational cooperation while avoiding discussing the war in Ukraine. Russia may have imposed controversial bans on personal vehicle use by volunteers delivering frontline aid, drawing criticism for potentially disrupting logistics and humanitarian efforts. The Kremlin's "Time of Heroes" program aims to militarize government structures at all levels to reinforce public support and avoid societal disillusionment akin to post-Afghanistan withdrawal.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced within Toretsk. Russian troops advanced in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, as well as within the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: How to make a success of peace talks with Vladimir Putin. Ukraine’s future hinges on securing security guarantees amid potential peace talks with Russia. NATO membership remains ideal but faces obstacles; bilateral agreements involving European troops could provide interim protection. Any deal must deter Russian aggression, support Ukraine's reconstruction, and demonstrate strong Western resolve. Success requires European nations to increase defense spending, aid Ukraine’s economy, and advance European Union accession talks, with U.S. backing under Trump to ensure credibility and counter Russia. The Economist

Opinion: Biden’s last-minute Ukraine reversals come too late. Daniel DePetris and Jennifer Kavanagh argue that President Joe Biden’s recent policy shifts, including allowing Ukraine to use long-range ATACMS missiles, come too late to change the war’s trajectory. They caution these moves could provoke Russian escalation, worsen Ukraine's plight, and increase the risks of a broader conflict. Instead of tilting battlefield dynamics, the authors claim these actions expose the U.S. and Europe to retaliation while failing to address Ukraine’s manpower and logistical challenges. They warn of heightened Russian aggression, both within Ukraine and globally, as Moscow views the West as direct combatants. Defense News

Opinion: The Pitfalls for Europe of a Trump-Putin Deal on Ukraine. Fredrik Wesslau warns that a Trump-Putin deal on Ukraine could undermine Western unity and empower Russia. While Trump might pressure Ukraine and Europe to accept terms like neutrality or territorial concessions, resistance from both is likely. Wesslau urges Europe to prepare by ramping up defense spending, supporting Ukraine militarily, reaffirming NATO commitments, and leveraging its role in countering China. Without strong European action, Putin could exploit negotiations to weaken Western alliances further. Foreign Policy

Opinion: Team Trump mustn’t buy Putin’s nuke threats. Ivana Stradner and Jason Smart argue that Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats are psychological tactics designed to manipulate Western leaders. They urge the Trump administration to maintain pressure on Russia, dismissing Putin’s bluster as ineffective deterrence. Strengthening Ukraine and rejecting Moscow’s fear tactics will better position Ukraine to negotiate a favorable resolution to the war. New York Post

Opinion: How to sell Ukraine to Trump: ‘Don’t let this become your Afghanistan.’ Joshua C. Huminski argues that Ukraine’s supporters must adapt their messaging to align with President-elect Donald Trump’s business-oriented mindset. He recommends framing Ukraine’s collapse as potentially Trump’s "Afghanistan," emphasizing Europe’s increased defense contributions and linking continental stability to American economic and strategic interests. Additionally, Huminski highlights the need for stronger communication with Congress and the American public to maintain bipartisan support and ensure that any resolution to the war serves U.S., European, and Ukrainian interests. The Hill

Opinion: Russian dead and wounded may point toward a Ukrainian strategy for victory. David Axe argues in Forbes that Russia’s catastrophic troop losses, estimated at 600,000-730,000 killed or wounded, indicate Ukraine’s strategy of trading territory to inflict heavy casualties is effective. However, he warns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump could disrupt this approach by easing sanctions on Russia or cutting U.S. support for Ukraine, potentially forcing Kyiv into an unfavorable peace deal despite Russia’s weakening position. Ukraine’s ability to sustain this strategy may hinge on continued Western backing. Forbes

THE AMERICAS

Putin comments on Trump, says President-elect “not safe now” after assassination attempts. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday commended U.S. President-elect Donald Trump as a capable and intelligent politician but apparently expressed concerns about his safety, citing two assassination attempts earlier in the year. Trump was injured in an attack in Pennsylvania in July and was targeted in another thwarted attempt in September at a Florida golf course. Putin, speaking after a summit in Kazakhstan, condemned the "uncivilized methods" used against Trump during the U.S. election campaign, including these attacks, and warned that the former president remains at risk. He also speculated that the Biden administration's so-called escalation of the Ukraine conflict—allowing Kyiv to strike Russia with Western missiles—might be intended to either complicate Trump’s future dealings with Russia or conveniently set up a challenge for him to resolve. The Russian leader expressed optimism that Trump could navigate the situation and find a solution to the war and stated that Moscow is open to dialogue. Reuters Economic Times NBC CNN 

Mexico threatens retaliation over Trump tariffs, but Sheinbaum says trade war can be avoided. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum issued a warning on Wednesday that Mexico would retaliate if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump was to implement his proposed 25% tariff on imports from Mexico. The next day, however, she asserted that “there will be no potential tariff war.” The tariffs, which Mexico argues would violate the USMCA trade agreement, could harm both economies, particularly the American automotive sector, by increasing costs and reducing growth.  They could significantly disrupt Mexico's auto industry, which accounts for nearly 25% of North American vehicle production. But Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard stressed that the proposal is a “shot in the foot” for the U.S., as tariffs would raise vehicle prices (especially on pickup trucks) by about $3,000, disproportionately affecting the rural American consumers who supported Trump. In a phone call on Wednesday, Sheinbaum and Trump discussed migration and drug control, with Trump claiming afterwards that Mexico has agreed to stop migration and shut down the southern border. Sheinbaum responded on X by stressing cooperation rather than border closures. Regardless, most analysts view Trump’s tariff threats as a negotiating tactic rather than policy. Reuters Associated Press 

Biden hopes Trump reassesses proposed tariffs on Mexico, Canada. U.S President Joe Biden expressed concern over President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada, warning that it could harm relations with key allies. Speaking from Nantucket during Thanksgiving, Biden called the move "counterproductive" and emphasized the importance of maintaining strong ties with neighboring countries. During the holiday, Biden also reflected on international progress, including a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, and the recent return of Americans detained in China. He highlighted the establishment of communication lines with Chinese President Xi Jinping, expressing confidence in Xi’s careful decision-making amid ongoing tensions. Reuters

Appeals court says feds barred from destroying Texas razor-wire migrant barrier. A U.S. appeals court ruled in favor of Texas, allowing the state to maintain razor-wire fencing along its border with Mexico while pursuing a lawsuit against the federal government for trespassing. The 2-1 decision by the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals reverses a lower court's denial of Texas's request for a preliminary injunction, preventing the Biden administration from removing the fencing near Eagle Pass, Texas. The majority opinion, written by Trump-appointed Judge Kyle Duncan, argued that Texas was protecting its property rather than interfering with federal immigration enforcement. Duncan also underscored the importance of safeguarding property rights from government intrusion. The dissenting opinion, by Biden-appointed Judge Irma Carrillo Ramirez, argued that Texas had not demonstrated that the federal government waived sovereign immunity, and criticized the state's attempt to assert authority over federal immigration efforts. The ruling is part of broader legal conflicts between Republican-led states and the Biden administration over immigration policies. Texas and other states such as Oklahoma and Iowa have passed measures to deter illegal migration, often clashing with federal enforcement. The conservative-leaning 5th Circuit has become a key battleground for these disputes, with additional cases under review, including one involving Texas's use of a floating barrier in the Rio Grande. Reuters NPR

EUROPE

German intel chief says NATO could invoke Article 5 over Russia’s acts of sabotage. German foreign intelligence chief Bruno Kahl has warned that Russia's hybrid warfare tactics could prompt NATO to invoke its Article 5 mutual defense clause, which obligates all member states to respond if one is attacked. Speaking in Berlin on Wednesday, Kahl said that Moscow's increasing use of cyberattacks, sabotage, and other hostile measures raises the risk of direct military confrontation with NATO. He also noted Russia's growing military capabilities, including its battle-hardened troops and advanced drone warfare, which may enable it to challenge NATO by the end of the decade. Despite there being no current indication that Russia plans to go to war, Kahl cautioned that sentiments within the Kremlin could shift, augmenting the risk of conflict. He added that Moscow might seek to undermine NATO’s unity by testing the alliance's red lines, such as through small-scale operations rather than full-scale invasions. These actions, he said, could be part of efforts to weaken Western resolve and question the effectiveness of NATO's collective defense. Reuters

Iranians, Europeans meet in Geneva for talks in a test diplomacy, with Trump 2.0 approaching. European and Iranian diplomats are meeting in Geneva on Friday to explore opportunities for defusing regional tensions and reviving serious nuclear talks amid uncertainties about Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency. The discussions involve Iran's deputy foreign minister, Majid Takhteravanchi, and representatives from Britain, Germany, and France (the E3), with a focus on Iran’s nuclear program and its broader regional role. Iran seeks the easing of sanctions, which were imposed after the U.S. withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal. Tehran is prioritizing progress in Geneva as a step toward broader negotiations that could eventually include Washington. However, distrust remains high, especially after the E3 backed a resolution tasking the U.N.’s atomic watchdog with closely monitoring Iran’s nuclear activities. The E3 is focused on establishing a timeline and framework for negotiations, addressing Iran’s nuclear program alongside its military ties with Russia and its broader regional role. Beyond the nuclear issue, the talks also touch on regional security, with rising concerns about tensions between Iran and Israel, which could escalate into a broader conflict. As time runs short, both sides are navigating complex dynamics, with the potential for progress tempered by significant political and strategic challenges. Reuters  

Investigators suspect Chinese ship intentionally dragged anchor for 100 miles to sever Baltic Cables. A Chinese cargo ship, the Yi Peng 3, is under investigation for allegedly sabotaging undersea data cables in the Baltic Sea, an event that has further raised tensions between Europe, China, and Russia. The vessel, which is owned by a Chinese company, is suspected of deliberately severing two critical data cables between Sweden, Lithuania, Germany, and Finland by dragging its anchor over 100 miles of seabed. The incidents, which occurred on November 17-18, have prompted European authorities to investigate possible Russian involvement. The probe focuses on whether the ship’s captain, a Chinese national, acted under Moscow’s intelligence influence, as the ship had recently begun operating from Russian ports carrying Russian cargo. The vessel’s transponder was turned off during key moments, and damage to its anchor and hull aligns with evidence of cable severance. Additionally, the vessel continued to move despite the fact that the dragging anchor significantly reduced its speed. Investigators suggest the sabotage aligns with a pattern of attacks on European infrastructure attributed to Russia since its invasion of Ukraine. The Chinese owner has cooperated thus far, allowing NATO warships to guard the vessel in international waters, and Beijing has reiterated its support for the investigation. European authorities are negotiating access to the ship and its crew while balancing international maritime laws that protect freedom of navigation. The investigation adds to rising concerns over Russia’s alleged covert operations against Europe’s critical infrastructure, as officials cautiously navigate the geopolitical implications of the case. Wall Street Journal Associated Press 

Russian media take on Trump cabinet picks.   Russian state media is closely following Donald Trump’s cabinet picks. Propagandist Vladimir Solovyov of Russian state television has launched a hashtag “D Team,” on his Telegram channel, inviting his 1.3 million followers to track the nominations.  Russians are most excited about Tulsi Gabbard as the head of national intelligence.  The propagandist Russian RT network has amplified her friendly takes on Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and Russian President Vladimir Putin.   Washington Post

Russian church leader chastises Russian officials for making nuclear threats.   Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church rebuked state officials over their nuclear threats to the West.  Kirill, a supporter of President Vladimir Putin and his war in Ukraine, said “fear mongering about possible apocalyptic scenarios” and speculation about nuclear weapons use was “not spiritually helpful.” He spoke at a Thursday congress in Moscow, according to Interfax. Several Russian officials stepped up nuclear sabre rattling after Washington allowed Ukraine to conduct strikes with US-made long-range missiles within Russia’s internationally recognized borders. Putin signed a new military doctrine broadening the scope for using atomic weapons.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called it “a signal to those stirring the conflict in Ukraine.”

Bloomberg

British soldier found guilty of spying for Iran.  Former British army soldier Daniel Khalife, 23, has been found guilty of spying for Iran.  Khalife gathered the names of special forces soldiers and passed them to Tehran. He was cleared of a charge of perpetrating a bomb hoax at his army barracks. He admitted breaking out of Wandsworth prison in London in September 2023 by strapping himself to the underside of a food delivery lorry during his trial in Woolwich Crown Court.  BBC   

Europeans drill for new Cold War.   Ukraine’s  launches of American missiles into Russia have caused NATO nations, particularly the alliance’s newest members, Finland and Sweden to realize what it means to live in a more dangerous world.  These nations are rushing to prepare their citizens for the unthinkable. Bloomberg  

EU to blacklist Chinese businesses for breaking Ukraine-related sanctions.   A Chinese businesswoman and four Chinese firms are about to be placed under a full EU visa ban and asset freeze for enabling Russia, EUobserver reported Wednesday. The woman is accused of exporting prohibited Western technology via Hong Kong to Russia. The firms allegedly supplied machine parts and components for "long-range attack drones" to the Russian military.  Two Hong Kong-based firms will be blacklisted, one for evading EU sanctions, the other for selling "microelectronic components." The EU has blacklisted more than 2,300 Russian individuals and entities since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The Chinese and Hong Kong firms and people had previously been put on an EU grey-list of Russia enablers, which denied them full access to dual-use technology and imposed extra financial due diligence burdens.  EUObserver  

Bulgarians on trial in London accused of espionage for Russia.    A team of Bulgarians working for Russian intelligence surveilled Patch barracks in Germany, a U.S. base near Stuttgart where Ukrainian forces were being trained to use surface-to-air missiles, British prosecutors told a London court Thursday. Katrin Ivanova, 33, Vanya Gaberova, 30, and Tihomir Ivanchev, 39, are on trial for spying in the U.K. and Europe for a network run by Russian agent Jan Marsalek, an Austrian national who used the false name of Rupert Ticz.  Two other men, Orlin Roussev and Bizer Dzhambazov, had admitted being part of the spying conspiracy, prosecutors said. The three denied the charge of conspiracy to gather information useful to an enemy between August 2020 and February 2023. Prosecutor Alison Morgan said the ring surveilled and considered kidnapping or killing Christo Grozev, an award-winning Bulgarian journalist who was the lead investigator on investigative website Bellingcat reports about the 2018 poisoning of the Russian double agent Sergei Skripal in Salisbury, England. The prosecutor said the group targeted expatriates Roman Dobrokhotov, a U.K.-based Russian who is editor in chief of The Insider; Bergey Ryskaliyev, a former Kazakh politician granted asylum in Britain, and Russian dissident Kiril Kachur. On Tuesday Russia expelled a British diplomat for spying.  Last month, the Security Service (MI5) Director General Ken McCallum accused Russian intelligence services of seeking to cause "mayhem" across Britain and Europe.  Reuters  

THE MIDDLE EAST

Nuclear watchdog reports Iran planning to expand uranium-enrichment program. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued a confidential report on Thursday detailing Iran’s intentions to install over 6,000 additional uranium-enrichment centrifuges at its enrichment facilities and activate more existing cascades. These moves are likely a response to a recent resolution passed by the IAEA's Board of Governors, driven by Western powers, urging Tehran to improve cooperation with the agency. The planned expansion includes 32 new cascades of advanced centrifuges at the Natanz and Fordow enrichment sites; the installation of a massive cascade of 1,152 advanced IR-6 centrifuges at the Natanz pilot plant; and the increasing of full-scale cascades at the above-ground Natanz facility. While Iran claims it is not pursuing nuclear weapons, Western nations remain concerned due to the fact that it has enriched uranium to 60% purity—near weapons-grade levels—at its Fordow and Natanz facilities. Although Tehran has proposed capping its 60%-enriched uranium stockpile, this suggestion was tied to a demand for leniency, which the IAEA board rejected. The watchdog’s report notes that Fordow is being closely monitored due to its fortified location in a mountain. The IAEA has requested intensified inspections following the activation of new IR-6 centrifuge cascades at the site. Despite its planned expansions, Iran has yet to feed uranium into many newly installed machines. Reuters

Syrian militants attack government forces, seize territory in country’s northwest. Syrian insurgents led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched an offensive against government-held areas in northwestern Syria early on Wednesday, taking soldiers hostage and capturing over 15 villages and a military base. The offensive, which expanded into the Idlib province, was aimed at reclaiming territory and facilitating the return of displaced civilians. The Syrian government, supported by Russian airstrikes and allied forces, responded with devastating airstrikes and shelling. The violence has displaced at least 7,000 families, killed 18 civilians, and forced the suspension of aid services, including schools and health facilities. This marks a major escalation in a region governed by a fragile 2019 de-escalation agreement brokered by Turkey, Russia, and Iran. The offensive follows weeks of intensified government bombardment and reflects ongoing regional tensions, with major powers like Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the U.S. supporting different sides in Syria’s conflict. Associated Press 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Chinese, Russian military aircraft enter South Korea's air defense zone during joint patrols. South Korea’s military reported that eleven Chinese and Russian military aircraft entered its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on Friday over a span of four hours, prompting Seoul to scramble fighter jets in response. The aircraft entered and exited the zone without violating South Korea's airspace or causing any incidents. The South Korean military, which had tracked the planes in advance, conducted tactical maneuvers as part of their standard response. While such entries have become frequent in recent years, neither China nor Russia recognize South Korea's ADIZ, a zone established to monitor and manage approaching aircraft for national security. Moscow and Beijing were conducting a joint aerial patrol over the Sea of Japan, the ninth strategic aerial patrol between the two powers since 2019. The Chinese defense ministry said the patrols were part of an annual bilateral military collaboration plan. Reuters South China Morning Post Reuters

Prisoner swap with China frees three Americans.   Three Americans detained by China have been released in a prisoner swap with Beijing, the Biden administration said Wednesday. John Leung, 79, had been an F.B.I. informant, according to senior U.S. officials.  In return, the United States released Xu Yanjun, a Chinese intelligence officer serving a 20-year sentence after he was arrested in Brussels in 2018 and extradited to the United States in a dramatic F.B.I. operation, according to two U.S. officials.  Kai Li, 62, an import-export businessman, was convicted by a Shanghai court in 2018 of providing state secrets to the F.B.I.  Mark Swidan, 49, a Texas businessman, has been held since 2012 on drug-related charges, which his family has said are false.  New York Times  CNN The Independent BBC NPR   

Chinese journalist, a former Harvard fellow, sentenced to seven years in prison on espionage charges. Former Chinese journalist Dong Yuyu, 62, has been sentenced to seven years in prison for espionage by a Beijing court. Dong, a senior staff member at the Guangming Daily, a Chinese Communist Party-affiliated newspaper, was detained in February 2022 while meeting a Japanese diplomat for lunch. The diplomat was released hours later after protests from the Japanese government. Dong had regularly engaged with foreign diplomats and journalists as part of his professional and academic work. The court accused him of meeting with Japanese diplomats described as "agents of an espionage organization," a claim that his family condemned as unjust and politically motivated. Rights groups, including the Committee to Protect Journalists, have criticized the conviction and called for his immediate release. Dong’s trial, which was completed in July 2023, concluded with a delayed verdict, during which he was denied contact with his family. Critics view the sentencing as part of China’s broader crackdown on dissent and engagement with foreign entities. Dong, a prominent pro-reform journalist and former Nieman fellow at Harvard, had previously been punished for participating in the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests but remained influential in academic and media circles in both the U.S. and Japan. BBC New York Times Washington Post Reuters

South Korea builds ballistic missile interceptor to counter any threat from North. South Korea on Friday announced the completion of a new ballistic missile interceptor, the Long-range Surface-to-Air Missile (L-SAM), designed to strengthen its defense against threats from North Korea. The L-SAM, developed over a decade, can intercept ballistic missiles or aircraft at altitudes above 40 km during their terminal phase. Mass production is set to begin in 2025, with deployment expected in the mid-to-late 2020s. The L-SAM adds a high-altitude layer to South Korea's existing missile defense systems, which include U.S. Patriot missiles, the indigenous Cheongung II interceptor, and the U.S.-supplied THAAD system. Like THAAD, the L-SAM uses advanced "hit-to-kill" technology for precision strikes on incoming threats. The development comes amid heightened tensions with Pyongyang, which has declared Seoul a "hostile state.” Reuters Korea Times Army Recognition 

Paraguay says it refuses to relinquish Taiwan ties in favor of China. Paraguayan foreign minister Rubén Darío Ramírez Lezcano reaffirmed his country's commitment to Taiwan during a visit to the island, stressing that Paraguay has no plans to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favor of China. Asunción remains the only South American nation to recognize Taiwan as a country, despite its significant $5 billion trade relationship with China. Ramírez Lezcano said that Paraguay is open to relations with China but rejects any conditions requiring it to break ties with Taiwan. He also noted that the relationship with Taipei is independent of U.S. influence. During his visit, Ramírez Lezcano met Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te, signed a reciprocal visa-free agreement, and discussed market access for Paraguayan agricultural exports. Paraguayan President Santiago Peña has consistently pledged to maintain ties with Taiwan, resisting Beijing’s diplomatic pressure. Ramírez Lezcano also expressed a willingness to strengthen relations with the U.S. under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration. Associated Press 

Taiwan’s Lai to stop over in Hawaii, Guam during Pacific trip. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te will stop in Hawaii and Guam during his upcoming trip to the South Pacific, a move likely to provoke opposition from China. Lai is set to visit Taiwan’s diplomatic allies—the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau—amid Beijing's ongoing pressure to isolate the self-ruled state. Taiwan currently has formal diplomatic ties with only 12 nations, but maintains strong unofficial relations with the U.S. As China's diplomatic pressure grows, Taiwan has intensified efforts to engage in international forums despite being excluded from many official venues. Lai's stopovers underscore Taiwan’s strategy to strengthen ties with its allies and the U.S. while defying Beijing's opposition. Associated Press CNN Wall Street Journal  

AFRICA

Chad ends defense cooperation pact with France, signaling major shift in strategic alliances. Chad’s foreign ministry on Thursday announced the termination of its defense cooperation agreement with France, a decision that could lead to the withdrawal of French soldiers stationed in the country. The government said it aims to assert Chad's sovereignty and redefine its strategic partnerships after more than 60 years of independence. France currently has warplanes, and around 1,000 troops based in Chad. This move reflects a broader decline of Western influence in West and Central Africa, as nations like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have already severed ties with Paris following coups, favoring closer relations with Russia. Chad has similarly strengthened ties with Moscow, including engagement with Russian mercenaries in the Sahel region. Chad stressed its intention to ensure a smooth transition while maintaining friendly relations with France. However, the decision is seen as part of a regional trend questioning the continued presence of Western forces. French forces in Senegal also face scrutiny, with Senegal’s president hinting at potential changes to their status. Chad had earlier expelled a small U.S. special operations unit, though discussions for their return are ongoing. France and the U.S. have not yet commented on the latest developments. Reuters France 24 Deutsche Welle The Defense Post 

Resolute Mining pays $50 million in Mali tax dispute. Australia's Resolute Mining has paid an additional $50 million to Mali as part of a $160 million settlement over a tax dispute, which secured the release of its CEO Terence Holohan and two other executives detained earlier this month. The remaining $30 million will be paid by the end of 2024. Despite the dispute, operations at Resolute's Syama gold mine—responsible for two-thirds of the company's 2023 sales—have continued uninterrupted. Resolute owns 80% of the mine, while the Malian government holds the remaining stake. Reuters

Africa CDC says mpox outbreak could begin plateauing in 2025. Mpox cases in Africa are projected to rise over the next four weeks before stabilizing early next year, according to the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC). The viral infection, which spreads through close contact and causes flu-like symptoms and skin lesions, has claimed 1,164 lives among over 59,000 reported cases across 20 African countries this year. The outbreak, driven by a new strain of mpox spreading from the Democratic Republic of Congo to neighboring countries, remains a global health emergency. The World Health Organization (WHO) continues to classify the outbreak as a public health emergency due to its rising case numbers, geographic spread, and operational challenges. Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

T-Mobile repulses infiltration attempts by hackers likely linked to China’s Salt Typhoon. T-Mobile on November 27 said it detected recent breach attempts by hackers believed to be connected to the China-backed "Salt Typhoon" threat actor, which has previously compromised major U.S. telecoms like AT&T, Verizon, and law enforcement wiretap systems. The intrusion attempts, originating from a third-party network, were blocked by T-Mobile's cybersecurity defenses, preventing access to sensitive customer data. T-Mobile severed connections to the compromised network and shared findings with government and industry stakeholders. T-Mobile underscored its robust cybersecurity measures, including network segmentation and multifactor authentication. While their systems were not breached, T-Mobile’s chief security officer acknowledged the growing sophistication of cyber threats.  The Salt Typhoon campaign has alarmed U.S. officials, with hackers reportedly targeting high-profile figures, including President-elect Donald Trump, and accessing sensitive Call Detail Records and emails. U.S. law enforcement warns the attackers are deeply embedded in several telecom systems, posing significant challenges for removal. Efforts to counter the attack continue, as Salt Typhoon expands its focus to other global telecoms. The Record T-Mobile Infosecurity Magazine Tech Monitor Bleeping Computer 

Major companies recovering following ransomware attack on Blue Yonder.  A ransomware attack on technology provider Blue Yonder last week disrupted systems for several major companies, affecting supply chains and operational processes. Blue Yonder, a supplier of digital supply chain tools, reported the attack last Thursday. It impacted some of customers, including Starbucks, which experienced scheduling system disruptions. Starbucks said that its employees would still receive accurate pay and holiday compensation. Other companies, such as BIC, faced limited shipping delays, while U.K. supermarket chains Sainsbury's and Morrisons dealt with warehouse management issues. Morrisons is operating on backup systems, and Sainsbury’s has since restored services. Dozens of Blue Yonder customers, including Wegmans, GAP, and DHL, confirmed they were not affected. However, companies like Dole and Oxford University Press declined to comment. Blue Yonder has provided no timeline for full-service restoration, and no ransomware group has claimed responsibility. Experts note the systemic risks of relying on third-party providers, as vulnerabilities could potentially cascade across organizations. Cybersecurity professionals warned of heightened risks during the holiday season, as attackers may target supply chains to maximize disruption. The Record ABC Forbes

Big Tech firms up in arms over Australia’s "rushed" social media ban for youths under 16. Australia has passed a landmark law banning social media access for children under 16, sparking fierce condemnation from major tech companies like Meta, TikTok, and Snap. The law mandates platforms to prevent minors from logging in or face fines up to AUD 49.5 million ($32 million). Shocked tech firms argue that the legislation was rushed, with TikTok warning it could drive youths to less regulated areas of the internet and Meta criticizing the lack of clear evidence linking social media to youth mental health harm. The law was passed swiftly after being introduced just a week prior, following a parliamentary inquiry that highlighted cyberbullying's impact on young Australians. Despite criticism, the government emphasized the urgency of addressing these issues. Enforcement trials will begin in January, with the ban set to take effect by November 2025. Critics, including the Digital Industry Group, argue that the law lacks clarity on implementation, leaving both the community and platforms uncertain about compliance. This move adds to Australia's ongoing tensions with U.S.-based tech giants over issues like content royalties and scam prevention. Reuters The Guardian France 24 CNN Associated Press BBC 

Bank of Uganda targeted in $16.8 million cyber heist linked to Southeast Asia hackers. The Bank of Uganda is under scrutiny following reports of a cyberattack by a hacking group called "Waste," which allegedly stole 62 billion Ugandan shillings ($16.8 million) from its IT systems. According to New Vision, a state-owned newspaper, the Southeast Asia-based hackers transferred part of the funds to Japan. Over half of the stolen amount has reportedly been recovered, and an investigation ordered by President Yoweri Museveni is underway. The central bank has neither confirmed nor denied the incident, stating it is awaiting a police report. Meanwhile, Daily Monitor, an independent newspaper, suggested possible insider collusion in the theft. Cyberattacks on financial institutions are not uncommon in Uganda, but banks often avoid public acknowledgment to maintain customer confidence. Reuters Bloomberg

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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