Report for Friday, November 15, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Friday, November 15, 2024

Trump on the Russia-Ukraine war: ‘It’s gotta stop.’

Elon Musk, Iran U.N. ambassador held secret New York meeting

Biden touches down in Peru for APEC summit, meeting with Xi.

Philippines’ resupply mission goes smoothly under deal with Beijing

Amazon questioned by U.S. Congress over ‘dangerous’ TikTok partnership

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Memo to the 47^th President: Latin America is About More Than Migrants. The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israel strikes Hezbollah sites in Beirut suburbs, southern Lebanon.For the third straight day, Israeli airstrikes attacked Beirut’s southern suburbs, where Hezbollah militants concentrate. The Israel Defense Forces said it issued evacuation warnings, then hit 30 targets in the area, focusing on buildings used by Hezbollah. Lebanese state media reported strikes in at least three areas in Beirut’s suburbs and the Ghobeiry neighborhood south of the capital. Lebanese officials said Israeli strikes on the city of Baalbek, including on a civil defense center, killed at least 20 people. The IDF said on Telegram that in the past week, it has killed 200 Hezbollah militants and disabled 140 of their rocket launchers. Yet Hezbollah was still able to fire around 25 projectiles into Israel by Thursday afternoon, the IDF said.   Reuters  IDF/Telegram 

World Bank says Israel-Hezbollah war has cost Lebanon’s economy billions.  The physical damage and economic losses from Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah have cost Lebanon $8.5 billion, the World Bank reported Thursday. Lebanon's real GDP is projected to shrink by at least 5.7% in 2024 due to the conflict, while Lebanon is still struggling to recover from financial collapse five years ago. "This compounds five years of sustained sharp economic contraction in Lebanon that has exceeded 34% of real GDP, losing the equivalent of 15 years of economic growth," the World Bank said. Nearly 100,000 housing units are damaged or gone.  Agriculture lost over $1.1 billion over 12 months from crop and livestock destruction and farmer displacement, the report said.   Reuters 

Israel bombards Damascus.  Israeli air strikes hit  Damascus Thursday, killing. Syrian state media said at least 15 people were killed in the attacks. Israel's military said it “inflicted significant damage” to a command center of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, an Iran-backed militia. It blamed the Syrian government for allowing the group to operate in the area. Iranian news said an Israeli missile attack hit near where prominent Iranian official Ali Larijani, a former speaker of Parliament and currently senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was meeting the director of Syria’s National Security Committee. Iranian news media said Larijani was not injured.  New York Times 

Gaza safe zone hit by Israeli airstrike. On Wednesday, an Israel airstrike hit Al-Mawasi, a designated humanitarian zone in southern Gaza where thousands of displaced Palestinians are sheltering.  The Israeli military said it issued evacuation warnings for civilians, then “struck and dismantled a loaded launcher” aimed at Israel.  The Palestinian news agency Wafa said at least one person was killed and at least 20 others were injured in the attack. Doctors Without Borders said it didn’t receive a warning, and the strike caused a “huge” explosion that destroyed equipment at one of its clinics 250 yards from the target.  New York Times  MSF/X   DWB/X 

US envoy floats Lebanon truce proposal.  U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Lisa Johnson delivered a draft proposal to stop the Israel-Hezbollah war to Lebanese speaker of parliament Nabih Berri Thursday, Reuters reported.  Ceasefire initiatives have so far centered on U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, a 2006 measure that aims to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon. For years, discussions have stalled on enforcement and monitoring, plus Israel’s insistence on its right to attack Hezbollah if it violates the terms or threatens Israel. Lebanese officials signaled that Hezbollah can accept the buffer zone but not Israel’s demand for freedom of action. The U.N. said it would bolster its UNIFIL peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon to support the Lebanese army in monitoring a buffer zone created in a ceasefire.  Reuters   Reuters Reuters 

UN special committee says Israel warfare in Gaza ‘consistent with genocide.’  In a report published Thursday, the U.N. Special Committee to Investigate Israeli Practices accused Israel of using "starvation as a weapon of war" and running an "apartheid system" in the occupied West Bank. The committee said these practices in Gaza are "consistent with the characteristics of genocide." The Israeli government did not respond. In the past, it has accused the U.N. of bias against Israel. The International Court of Justice is investigating a claim by South Africa that Israel’s military campaign in Gaza is genocidal. The Israeli government has rejected the charges. Separately, Human Rights Watch said Thursday that Israel’s forced displacements of Gazans constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity. Israel said the charge was “completely false and detached from reality.”  South China Morning Post The Guardian Al Jazeera VOA  HRW

Israel demolishes Bedouin village.  Israeli bulldozers on Thursday completed the demolition of the Arab Bedouin village Umm al-Hiran in the Negev Desert.  About 400 villagers had lived in the village.  Israel accused them of squatting on state-owned land. They had refused to move to plots in a nearby Bedouin township, charging that the Israeli government wants to develop their land for Israel’s Jewish settlements. Israel’s far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, posted on X that demolition orders have increased 400% so far this year. “Proud to lead a strong policy of demolishing illegal houses in the Negev!” he wrote.  Associated Press 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump on the Russia-Ukraine war: ‘It’s gotta stop.’  President-elect Donald Trump said Thursday his administration will focus on the Russia-Ukraine war. “We’re going to work very hard on Russia and Ukraine. It’s gotta stop. Russia and Ukraine’s gotta stop,” he said at an event in Florida as he lamented the deaths in the war. “Whether they’re soldiers or they’re people sitting in towns, we’re going to work it,” he added. CNN

Trump’s US election leaves Ukraine scrambling for EU military assistance. Donald Trump's victory has intensified Ukraine's urgency to secure military support from the European Union amid uncertainties about U.S. aid continuity. Trump previously criticized a $61 billion U.S. aid package to Ukraine and has suggested a quick end to the war when he becomes president. Trump has also demanded that EU member states that belong to NATO raise defense spending to 3 percent of gross domestic product and threatened to let Russia do “whatever the hell it wants” with them if they refuse. EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell affirmed that the EU would supply Ukraine with a million artillery shells by year’s end. The EU has spent $130 billion supporting Ukraine since the full-scale invasion in 2022. Should US aid halt, the EU could hand over $300 billion in Russian assets to Ukraine under the EU's management. Meanwhile, Kyiv seeks swift delivery of promised weapons from the U.S. before President Joe Biden's term ends. Additionally, pressure mounts on Germany to provide long-range missiles to counter Russia’s intensifying aerial attacks. Al Jazeera 

European Commission approves $4.3 billion for Ukraine under the Ukraine Facility program. The European Commission approved $4.3 billion in aid for Ukraine under the Ukraine Facility program, contingent on European Union Council confirmation. This will add to the anticipated total EU support of $17 billion in 2024. In August, Ukraine received $4.6 billion as part of the EU’s four-year aid plan. In 2023, Ukraine received $42.5 billion in international financing to sustain government operations amid Russia's war, with similar funds needed for 2024. However, Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko has highlighted a potential shortfall, noting Ukraine may require an extra $12-15 billion next year to cover budgetary needs beyond current international pledges. Kyiv Independent

If Trump starts Ukraine peace talks, Russia will be open to them, envoy says. Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Gennady Gatilov said Thursday that Russia is open to peace talks on Ukraine if initiated by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, though any discussions must reflect Russia's territorial gains. Gatilov acknowledged Trump’s campaign promise to end the war swiftly but expressed skepticism. Given Washington's longstanding policy of containing Moscow, he highlighted that any potential U.S.-Russia dialogue would be limited. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains firm that peace requires the full withdrawal of Russian forces and the return of occupied territories. Reuters

Foreign ministers of five European countries and Ukraine to meet in Warsaw.  Foreign ministers from the UK, Italy, Germany, Poland, France, and Ukraine will meet in Warsaw on Nov. 19 to discuss Donald Trump's re-election, the war in Ukraine, and European policy. Preparations are underway for potential shifts in U.S. military presence and NATO strategy under Trump's incoming administration. Ukrainska Pravda

Russian attack on Ukraine's Kupiansk steps up pressure on northeast front. Ukraine’s military said Thursday it had repelled a Russian assault on Kupiansk as Moscow’s forces, disguised as Ukrainian troops, attempted a breakthrough. The attackers briefly reached Kupiansk’s outskirts but were pushed back with heavy losses. Ukrainian officials condemned the use of Ukrainian uniforms by Russian soldiers as a war crime. Kupiansk, a crucial railway hub near the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast, remains strategic for Ukraine’s defenses in the northeast. Simultaneously, intense battles raged in the eastern Donetsk and southern Kurakhove areas, where Russian forces aimed to encircle Ukrainian positions. Russian troops have gradually advanced across the Donbas front. Ukraine is bracing for possible intensified Russian operations in anticipation of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, as Russia hopes for negotiations that reflect “realities on the ground.” Despite limited resources, Ukrainian defenders have held critical areas, though ongoing shelling has caused civilian casualties and power outages. The Telegraph Reuters RFE/RL Kyiv Independent

Russia continues pressure in Ukraine’s southeast. Russian forces are intensifying their push in southeastern Ukraine, with a troop buildup signaling a possible major offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region. Ukrainian troops have observed new, inexperienced Russian units attempting daylight advances, which Ukrainian forces have managed to counter effectively. Ukrainian commanders report Russia’s increased use of drones and infantry assaults near key areas like Robotyne. Ukrainian units are bolstering fortifications and deploying more mines as they brace for further Russian offensives. The prospect of control over Zaporizhzhia, particularly its regional capital, remains a strategic prize for Russia in solidifying claims over Ukrainian territories. Washington Post

ANALYSIS–How long can Ukrainian troops hold out in Russia’s Kursk Oblast?  Ukraine’s Kursk incursion faces a critical challenge as Russia amasses 50,000 troops, including North Korean units, to reclaim the territory. Analysts suggest Ukraine’s aim to lure Russian forces away from the eastern Donbas front has only partially succeeded as Moscow continues its steady advance there. Historian Mark Galeotti argues that Putin, anticipating potential negotiations under Trump, seeks to wipe out Ukraine’s Kursk position by early 2025, prioritizing gains there before a possible ceasefire. The outcome in Kursk depends on Ukrainian troops’ resilience; if they hold defensive lines and inflict heavy casualties, Russia may struggle to maintain its Donbas momentum. The Independent

Russian forces capture a town in eastern Ukraine. Russia’s military reported capturing a village in east Ukraine on Thursday, with troops closing in on the city of Kurakhove. The Russian Defense Ministry said the army captured the village of Voznesenka in the Donetsk region. Agence France-Presse reported that the town had a population of about 20,000 before the war began in 2022. Voice of America

Pokrovsk was about to fall to Russia 2 months ago. It’s hanging on. Pokrovsk, a strategic city in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, narrowly avoided falling to Russian forces in September. The city, once home to 60,000 people, now houses around 12,000 resilient residents under curfew, with anti-tank defenses lining its streets. Despite reduced shelling since September, officials anticipate renewed Russian pressure. Ukrainian forces, bolstered by fresh combat units and increased Western aid, have held Pokrovsk for now, reducing Russia’s artillery advantage from 7-to-1 to 2-to-1. However, the city's last operating hospital has closed, with emergency services relocated 12 miles away. Residents, while fearful, stay so as not to abandon their homes. Christian Science Monitor

Putin Has a Problem: The Ukraine War is Now a 'Daily Meat Grinder.' Russia’s recent offensive in Ukraine has led to massive casualties, with Russian and supporting forces losing about 8,500 personnel over five days—a figure exceeding U.S. casualties in Iraq’s deadliest year. Moscow’s strategy relies on overwhelming numbers, deploying a 50,000-strong force to retake areas like Kursk, leading to severe daily losses and substantial equipment damage. Despite heavy losses, Russia continues its attrition-based approach, straining resources and reflecting a disregard for troops while lacking the capacity for effective maneuver warfare. The National Interest

Russia has increased Ukraine drone attacks by 44% since Trump's election. Following Donald Trump’s election victory, Russia escalated its drone attacks on Ukraine by approximately 44%, according to an analysis by ABC News. In the week after the election, Russia launched 641 strike drones, averaging over 91 drones per day, with a record 145 drones on November 10. This marks a sharp increase from the prior daily average of under 64 drones. Russia’s recent attacks have predominantly used Iranian-made Shahed drones, with Moscow’s strategy aiming to weaken Ukraine’s defenses ahead of the U.S. presidential transition in January. ABC News 

Ukraine needs ‘fast and focused’ help with energy security, ERBD Ukraine head says. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), led in Ukraine by Arvid Tuerkner, has focused on urgently reinforcing Ukraine's energy security amid ongoing Russian attacks that have severely damaged the country’s infrastructure. Since late 2022, the EBRD has invested nearly a quarter of its 5 billion-euro Ukraine program into energy, primarily aiding state-owned companies like Naftogaz and Ukrenergo. Amid energy shortages, the bank supports immediate solutions such as gas turbines and decentralized systems while also advancing Ukraine's clean energy. Additionally, the EBRD fosters private investment and supports anti-corruption reforms to improve Ukraine’s long-term investment environment. Kyiv Independent

Germany will supply Ukraine with the sixth IRIS-T system by the end of this year. Germany will deliver its sixth IRIS-T air defense system to Ukraine by year-end, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed following discussions with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Although Zelensky did not specify the model, Ukraine will receive IRIS-T SLM (medium-range) and SLS (short-range) systems. The two leaders also discussed future air defense support, including coordinating the next Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting. Germany has committed €4 billion for Ukraine’s defense, which can be allocated under interim budget management if the 2025 budget isn’t approved. Militarnyi

Poland Urges NATO Chief To Greenlight Soviet-Era Fighter Jets for Ukraine. Polish President Andrzej Duda has called on NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to authorize the transfer of Poland’s remaining MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. In a meeting in Warsaw, Duda emphasized the urgency of NATO’s response to Russian aggression, stressing that Poland could donate more MiG-29s if NATO allies bolster Poland’s air defenses. Rutte praised Poland’s military support for Ukraine, including significant financial aid and hosting over a million Ukrainian refugees, and underscored the need for increased NATO defense spending to counter Russia. Newsweek

EU cements first-ever joint arms purchases in boost for Ukraine. The European Union has allocated €300 million for joint weapons procurement, including air defense systems and artillery, partly for Ukraine. This marks a shift from ad hoc funding to budgeted support. The Guardian

A France-trained and armed force aims to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses. France's “Champagne” task force has completed training of over 2,000 Ukrainian troops, forming the “Anne of Kyiv” brigade, equipped with French-supplied AMX-10 tanks, Caesar artillery, and anti-aircraft missiles. This brigade, trained intensively in combat maneuvers and trench warfare, will soon deploy to Ukraine, bolstered by additional Ukrainian-trained units to reach 4,500 troops. Associated Press

North Korea Is Shipping Its Biggest Guns To Russia, So Russia Can Fire Them At Ukraine. North Korea has reportedly sent M1989 Koksan 170-mm howitzers to Russia, indicating expanded support beyond troops by supplying heavy artillery. A social media photo shows the large howitzers on a train in Siberia, sparking speculation that Russian forces may use them on the Ukraine front. Russia’s artillery reserves are critically low after years of losses and reliance on aging Cold War stocks, with many guns corroded or stripped for parts. The M1989’s unique 170-mm shells are solely produced by North Korea, underscoring Russia’s dependence on allies like North Korea and Iran to maintain its military capacity against Ukraine. Forbes

Russian mass missile, drone strike on Odesa kills 1, injures at least 10.  Russia launched a massive aerial attack on Odesa late on Thursday, killing one woman and injuring at least 10 others, including a child, according to Governor Oleh Kiper. Strikes destroyed an apartment building, damaged infrastructure, and hit a key heating pipeline serving hospitals and schools. A maternity hospital is relying on a generator. Officials warn of escalating strikes on Ukraine's energy systems ahead of winter.  Kyiv Independent

Ukrainian mother and three children killed in a Russian strike on Zelensky’s hometown. A Russian missile strike this week devastated an apartment building in Kryvyi Rih, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s hometown, killing a family of four, including a two-month-old baby, her mother, and her two brothers. The father of the family survived. Kryvyi Rih, located near Ukraine’s southern front line, has endured repeated missile assaults in recent weeks. These strikes are part of Russia’s intensified campaign against populated areas, with Ukrainian authorities reporting 900 bombs, 30 missiles, and nearly 500 drones launched in one week across Ukraine.  CNN

A treason trial begins for a Russian charged with sending video of military equipment to Ukraine. Russian national Nikita Zhuravel faces a treason trial for allegedly sending videos of Russian military equipment to Ukraine’s security services. Already serving a 3.5-year sentence for burning a Quran, Zhuravel could now face life in prison if convicted. Human rights activists view Zhuravel as a political prisoner, noting his prior beating by Ramzan Kadyrov’s son, which Kadyrov publicly endorsed. Since the invasion of Ukraine, treason cases in Russia have surged, targeting Kremlin critics and others seen as collaborating with foreign entities. Associated Press

Russian woman jailed for 8 years for demanding Putin's death over Ukraine war. A Moscow military court sentenced Anastasia Berezhinskaya, a 43-year-old theatre director and mother of two, to eight years in a penal colony for online posts calling for President Vladimir Putin’s death and criticizing the war in Ukraine. She was convicted under Russia's wartime censorship laws, including charges of discrediting the military and justifying terrorism. Berezhinskaya, who partially admitted guilt, joins over 1,000 Russians criminally prosecuted for anti-war statements since the 2022 invasion. Rights group OVD-Info reports that over 20,000 have been detained for protesting. Reuters

In echo of Soviet era, Russians are informing on each other over Ukraine. Nadezhda Buyanova, a 68-year-old Russian pediatrician born in Ukraine, was sentenced to 5.5 years in a penal colony for allegedly making anti-Russian comments to a patient’s mother. The case stemmed from a denunciation by Anastasia Akinshina, who claimed Buyanova blamed her husband’s death in Ukraine on his role as a combatant. Critics view the case as part of a growing trend of politically motivated denunciations, echoing Soviet-era practices. Despite Buyanova's denial of the remarks and questionable evidence, her trial highlights Russia's crackdown on dissent. Supporters, including over 1,000 doctors, criticized the case, warning it deters young professionals. Rights advocates argue her comments, if true, align with international law regarding wartime conduct. The case is a symbol of repression under President Vladimir Putin's regime. Reuters 

In Cyprus, Ukrainians learn how to dispose of landmines that kill and maim hundreds. In Cyprus, nearly 100 Ukrainian soldiers have undergone rigorous training to locate and dispose of landmines and unexploded munitions. The five-week courses, supported by the Cypriot government as part of the European Union’s Military Assistance Mission, teach practical techniques using real explosives. Since the full-scale invasion in 2022, landmines have killed 399 people and injured 915, including children. Around 29% of Ukraine's territory needs demining; 10% of farmland remains unusable until it is demined. Russia and Ukraine have both been accused of using banned antipersonnel landmines. Associated Press

Ukraine could reopen Lviv airport in 2025, broker says. Ukraine aims to reopen Lviv International Airport in 2025, restoring limited air travel that has been suspended since Russia's 2022 invasion. Marsh McLennan’s Crispin Ellison confirmed talks with European aviation regulators, airlines, and insurers to ensure safety if the airport reopens. Lviv, less frequently targeted by Russian strikes, is considered a viable candidate for phased reopening, supported by a proposed insurance facility for commercial aviation. The airport, capable of serving 3,000 passengers hourly before the war, could be a test case before considering Kyiv’s main airport. Discussions highlight airlines' interests, but approval depends on risk mitigation and political decisions. Reuters

Ukraine’s nuclear power sector remains vulnerable in war. Ukraine's nuclear power sector remains under strain amid Russia’s war. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), operating under Russian control, has faced power outages, maintenance challenges, and safety concerns, relying on backup systems and new groundwater wells for cooling. Other plants, including Khmelnytskyi and Rivne, continue adapting with non-Russian fuel and enhanced safety measures. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development-Nuclear Energy Agency collaborates with Ukraine on expertise-sharing initiatives, while the International Atomic Energy Agency assesses safety conditions. Ukrainian nuclear plants grapple with limited staffing, external power interruptions, and drone strikes, highlighting persistent vulnerabilities despite efforts to maintain operational safety. Nuclear Energy Agency

Construction of 2 new power units underway at South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant. Ukraine is advancing nuclear energy development with plans for two new power units at the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant, using U.S.-based Westinghouse's AP1000 technology. Geological studies and site selection are complete. Additionally, Ukraine aims to resume constructing the Chyhyryn plant in Cherkasy Oblast. Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine's Security Service exposes and arrests Russian mole in ranks of Special Operations Forces. Ukraine’s Security Service detained a Russian mole, a lieutenant colonel in the Special Operations Forces, recruited before Russia’s full-scale invasion. The agent leaked plans for sabotage and reconnaissance operations, risking Ukrainian soldiers' lives. Evidence seized included covert communication devices. Charged with high treason, he faces life imprisonment with property confiscation. Ukrainska Pravda

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, Nov. 14. The Kremlin's economic policies highlight challenges for the Russian economy in 2025 and long-term concerns over stability. Vladimir Putin's reduced compensation for wounded soldiers reflects efforts to cut escalating war costs. Inflation control and high interest rates hinder the Russian defense industry's ability to expand and replace weapon losses. Russian weapons production cannot keep pace with battlefield losses, further strained by sanctions and monetary policies. Kremlin demographic policies aim to counter low birthrates and labor shortages threatening defense industry operations. A state poll shows most Russians feel unaffected by the war, signaling societal detachment and recruitment challenges. Putin dismissed the need for special envoys to handle Ukraine issues, responding to reports of U.S. peace envoy plans. North Korea may have supplied Russia with 170mm M1989 artillery systems, as seen in recent Russian milblogger imagery. Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk but have not established control, with intensified offensives in the area.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in the Ukrainian main salient in Kursk Oblast, west of Ukraine's main salient in Kursk Oblast in Glushkovsky Raion, in the Chasiv Yar direction, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Forcing Ukraine to cede land will only increase Putin’s imperial appetite.  Peter Dickinson argues that forcing Ukraine to cede territory to Russia would legitimize Vladimir Putin’s invasion and embolden his imperial ambitions, increasing the long-term threat to regional and global security. The Kremlin leader views Ukrainian independence as an existential threat to Putin’s regime, making territorial concessions ineffective in deterring future aggression. Dickinson emphasizes that any negotiated settlement must include robust security guarantees for Ukraine, coupled with increased Western defense spending, to counter Russia’s expansionist aims. While recognizing the challenges of Ukraine’s full liberation, he warns that temporary peace deals risk prolonging and deepening the conflict against Putin's imperialist agenda. Atlantic Council

Opinion: Trump threatens to be good for Ukraine, actually.Jamie Dettmer argues that Donald Trump’s reelection could lead to a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine, sparking mixed reactions. While such a deal would require Ukraine to concede significant territory and NATO membership aspirations, Dettmer highlights a shift in public opinion both in Europe and within Ukraine toward seeking a diplomatic solution. He criticizes Western leaders for overpromising on military and political support, leaving Ukraine vulnerable. Dettmer concludes that any peace agreement must include robust security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression, stressing the need for a sustainable solution that allows Ukraine to rebuild free from Moscow’s influence. Politico EU

Opinion: Biden’s gloves can finally come off to help Trump end the Ukraine war. Edward Fishman argues that President Joe Biden can strengthen Donald Trump’s future leverage to end Russia's war on Ukraine by tightening sanctions on Russia before leaving office. Fishman suggests Biden should close loopholes in energy sanctions that exempt Russian oil and broaden secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil. He also recommends ensuring Congress has a say in lifting sanctions, preventing Trump from easily removing them. These measures, Fishman contends, would enhance Trump’s negotiation power with Vladimir Putin, allowing for a credible peace deal without concessions that harm U.S. interests. Washington Post

Opinion: Aid to Ukraine is now a 2-way street empowering US drone warfare. Olena Kryzhanivska and Paul Schwennesen argue that U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson’s reluctance to provide further aid to Ukraine overlooks the benefits of a two-way partnership. They highlight that Ukraine now leads in unmanned aerial systems (UAS) technology and warfare, offering expertise and advanced drones that could bolster U.S. defenses. Ukraine’s battlefield innovations, built from necessity, include rapid advancements in AI-driven drones and autonomous systems, positioning it as an invaluable partner for the U.S. defense establishment’s strategic needs. Kyiv Independent

Opinion: Biden’s escalation paralysis has devastated Ukraine. Jonathan Sweet and Mark Toth argue that President Joe Biden’s reluctance to fully empower Ukraine’s defense has hindered its ability to push back Russia effectively. Biden’s concern over nuclear escalation has led to a “just enough” support strategy, aiming for a war of attrition rather than a decisive victory. This approach, they argue, emboldens Russian President Vladimir Putin, who counters each Ukrainian advance with nuclear threats. The authors suggest prioritizing a “Ukraine-first” policy, with robust weapon support to ensure Ukraine's victory, which would curb Russia’s influence over allies like North Korea and Iran. The Hill

Opinion: How EU nations can prevent the worst-case outcome for Ukraine.Jakub Janda argues that European Union nations must act decisively to counter any pressure from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump for Ukraine’s surrender, which would risk a catastrophic geopolitical outcome. Janda outlines five steps: increasing EU defense spending to 3% of GDP, supplying Ukraine with all possible European-sourced weaponry, deploying EU troops along the frontline in Ukraine, seizing frozen Russian assets to fund defense, and offering Trump a compromise by using these funds to buy American arms for Ukraine and NATO allies. Janda asserts that European political resolve is crucial to preventing a Russian victory. Kyiv Independent

Opinion: Ukraine’s demographic crisis threatens its future viability as a free state. Anthony J. Tokarz argues that Ukraine’s demographic crisis, exacerbated by Russia’s war, threatens its future viability. The population dropped from 48.5 million in 2001 to 29 million by 2023, per the Ukrainian Institute for the Future. A 2023 United Nations report optimistically estimates 35 million. Ukraine faces a demographic inversion, with 9.5 million workers supporting 23 million pensioners, children, and unemployed, many living abroad. Conscription has mobilized 7.4 million men aged 25-60, but only 2.8 million remain available for recruitment. Fertility rates, already low at 1.4 births per woman, continue to decline. Western budgetary aid sustains Ukraine’s economy and public sector salaries, but corruption and resource misallocation continue. Responsible Statecraft

Opinion: Putin Pulls From Stalin’s Playbook in Sending North Koreans Disguised as Buryats to Ukraine. Maria Vyushkova highlights says Russia is disguising North Korean troops as Buryats, exploiting similarities in Asian appearances. This strategy mirrors historical precedents, such as the deployment of Soviet Asian minorities, including Buryats, in the Korean War disguised as Chinese volunteers. Buryats, an Indigenous Siberian group, have been disproportionately represented among Russian forces and casualties in Ukraine due to their region’s economic struggles and high military base density. This exploitation highlights a broader pattern of Indigenous minorities being used as "cannon fodder" in imperial wars. Moscow Times

Opinion: Ukraine Is Running Out of Optimists. Andrey Kurkov laments Ukraine’s growing fatigue amidst relentless Russian aggression and waning optimism about Western support. Sleep-deprived Kyiv residents endure nightly air raid sirens, compounded by fears of Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, which many believe could end U.S. military aid and force territorial concessions to Russia. Ukrainians, long accustomed to bracing for the worst, grapple with bleak prospects as winter nears, troops face exhaustion, and infrastructure suffers under Russian bombardment. With the West’s support increasingly uncertain and figures like Viktor Orban advocating disengagement, Kurkov highlights the psychological toll of waiting for Trump’s intentions to materialize while clinging to hope. New York Times

AMERICAS

Who’s Who in Trump’s Cabinet and White House. President-elect Donald Trump is stocking his administration with loyalists, members of Congress, and longtime allies who worked on his presidential campaign. Most cabinet-level positions require Senate confirmation, while senior posts at the White House don’t. Here are Trump’s latest picks for top positions. Wall Street Journal

Trump Picks R.F.K. Jr. to Be Head of Health and Human Services Department. President-elect Donald Trump has nominated vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The agency oversees Medicare, Medicaid, public health, and drug safety with an annual budget of $1.7 trillion. Kennedy, known for promoting debunked vaccine-autism links and opposing fluoride in drinking water, pledges to combat corporate influence in health agencies and address chronic diseases. Critics, including public health experts and Senate Democrats, warn of risks to public health, citing his history of misinformation. While Kennedy faces a tough confirmation battle, some Republicans support his agenda to reform food and drug regulations. New York Times Washington Post Wall Street Journal South China Morning Post 

Trump taps former congressman Collins to run Department of Veterans Affairs.. President-elect Donald Trump is nominating former Georgia Representative Doug Collins to be Secretary of Veteran Affairs. While representing a rural Georgia  in the House, Rep. Collins became one of Trump’s staunchest defenders. Collins left the House in 2021 after an unsuccessful bid for the Senate. He is a Baptist minister and an Air Force Reserve chaplain who served in Iraq.  Politico NPR

Elon Musk, Iran U.N. ambassador held secret New York meeting on easing tension under Trump.Tesla CEO Elon Musk, a close ally of President-elect Donald Trump, met with Iran's U.N. ambassador, Amir Saeid Iravani, in a quiet meeting in New York to discuss easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The hour-long Monday meeting was described as “positive” and “good news” by Iranian officials, who suggested that Musk had requested the session. This event marks an early interaction between a senior Iranian official and Musk, and signals potential shifts in Washington-Tehran relations under the incoming Trump administration. During the meeting, Iran reportedly encouraged Musk to seek sanctions exemptions and explore business opportunities in Tehran. Despite historical tensions, Iran appears open to diplomacy, with its leaders debating the potential for a new deal to lift sanctions. Trump's willingness to engage remains uncertain. While Musk's role allows indirect discussions, ultimate decisions rest with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, who must approve any negotiations. New York Times South China Morning Post CNN

Biden touches down in Peru for international summit, meeting with Xi.  President Joe Biden has begun a six-day visit to Latin America for his final, major round of international summits during his presidency. Biden's itinerary includes a visit to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru, a stop in the Amazon rainforest, and an appearance at the G20 summit in Brazil. His trip aims to reinforce partnerships, address global issues like climate change and counter-narcotics, and engage with leaders, including a key meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Biden will also meet with South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to discuss security and economic cooperation amid tensions with China and North Korea. His trip seeks to reassure global allies about democratic transitions of power, maintain support for Ukraine, and address Middle East conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza. Analysts view Biden’s meeting with Xi as the most consequential moment of his South America tour, focusing on competition, security concerns, and economic ties between the U.S. and China. Associated Press France 24 CNN  

China’s Xi launches deepwater port in Lima. Chinese President Xi Jinping, in Lima for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, inaugurated the Chancay deepwater megaport Thursday. Chancay will cost more than $3 billion, according to Chinese state media estimates.  The port will be operated exclusively by Chinese shipping giant Cosco and has automated cargo cranes supplied by Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries. A  report from two House committees issued Sept. 12 charged that Shanghai Zhenhua poses cybersecurity and national security risks if allowed to operate in U.S. ports. Western experts are raising concerns that Chancay will boost China’s economic influence in the hemisphere and may host Chinese navy warships, expanding Beijing’s military power in America’s backyard. China has denied that the port will be used for anything other than commercial interests.  Washington Post Wall Street Journal  Financial Times South China Morning Post 

China’s Xi Jinping in South America. Chinese President Xi Jinping is in Peru with a large delegation to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. His visit will center around strengthening ties with Peru through bilateral agreements, including an updated free-trade deal, and promoting China's image as a "responsible global citizen" amid U.S. political transitions. During the summit, Xi and President Joe Biden are expected to discuss key issues, including Taiwan, human rights, and China’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. The visit also highlights China’s economic influence in South America, where it is a leading trade partner and has numerous infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative. Despite concerns about Peru's instability, Beijing remains committed to long-term investments, such as the Chancay port. South China Morning Post

Haitians flee homes capital as gangs ramp up brutality, fight with police. Violence in Port-au-Prince flared on Thursday as gangs battled police in the Solino neighborhood, one of the few areas not fully under gang control. Thousands of residents fled their homes, carrying belongings and children in their arms as the gang coalition Viv Ansanm clashed with police. Families reported that gang members burned homes, forced evacuations, and killed a community police officer. Over 4,300 people have been displaced since Sunday, according to the U.N., which has mobilized aid, including food, cash, and mobile health clinics. AU.N.-backed mission led by Kenyan police has been unable to quell the violence. Haiti's new interim prime minister, Alix Didier Fils-Aimé, condemned recent gang attacks at the country’s main airport but has remained largely silent on broader violence. Associated Press Reuters 

Mexico investigating murders of 14 people in volatile Sinaloa. Mexican authorities in Sinaloa are investigating the discovery of 14 bodies in and around the city of Culiacán amid ongoing cartel violence. Seven bodies were found on a highway to the resort city of Mazatlán, and others were discovered near cemeteries and a bridge. The killings are part of a broader wave of bloodshed; around 400 murders have been reported since September. Many killings are linked to cartel disputes following the arrest of Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, a co-founder of the Sinaloa Cartel. Efforts to stabilize the region, including deploying thousands of soldiers, have so far failed to curb the violence. Similar massacres have occurred in other states, such as Queretaro, where 10 people were killed in a bar over the weekend. Reuters 

Brazil connects capital bombing to extremist discourse as police find explosives in home he was staying in. A Brazilian Supreme Court justice has linked Wednesday’s explosion outside the court in Brasilia to far-right extremism and hate speech. The attack, carried out by a man acting alone but possibly influenced by radical groups, is being investigated as terrorism and an attack on democratic rule. The suspect, a former local politician and member of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro's Liberal Party, detonated multiple explosives, including one that killed him. Police later searched the home where he was staying and found explosives. Justice Alexandre de Moraes emphasized the need for accountability for political violence, rejecting amnesty for criminals. Bolsonaro condemned the violence and called for peaceful discourse. The incident comes amid heightened security preparations for Brazil's upcoming G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro. Authorities have reassured the public of robust security measures, including armed forces involvement, to ensure the summit's safety. Associated Press Reuters 

EUROPE

UK-Based Anti-War Russian Chef Found Dead In Serbia Hotel.  Alexei Zimin, a prominent London-based Russian chef and critic of Moscow's war on Ukraine, was found dead in a locked Belgrade flat during a visit to promote his book "Anglomania." Authorities report no signs of foul play, pending autopsy results. Zimin, born in 1971, left Russia after its 2014 Crimea occupation, opposing the Kremlin's actions. Renowned for founding the ZIMA restaurant and contributing to major magazines, he also hosted cooking shows and authored books. His anti-war stance led him to end his TV show after Russia’s 2022 invasion. ZIMA described him as a talented and cherished colleague and friend. News 18 BBC The Guardian The Times

EU gearing up for Trump round 2, as global strain starts to boil over. Europe is bracing for the potential geopolitical and economic challenges that could arise with a second Trump administration. European leaders are particularly concerned about Trump’s campaign promises to impose tariffs on European goods and rapidly broker a deal to end the war in Ukraine, which may not favor Kyiv. Anxiety has deepened with Trump’s national security and foreign affairs nominations. The EU faces its own struggles, including a possible trade war with China over electric vehicles, internal political instability, and strained economic ties with Beijing. Efforts to improve transatlantic relations and negotiate a trade deal with the Trump administration are complicated by Europe’s divisions, as well as Washington’s increasingly transactional approach. EU officials hope to gain tariff relief and continued U.S. support for Ukraine by cooperating on countering China's industrial dominance. However, skepticism remains about Europe's ability to influence the White House. If negotiations fail, the bloc is preparing retaliatory tariffs, risking a multi-front trade war with both the U.S. and China. European leaders are urging a more flexible transatlantic approach to address these mounting challenges, though the outlook remains uncertain. South China Morning Post   

MIDDLE EAST

Qatar, Turkey formalize agreements on trade and military.  Turkey and Qatar signed several agreements on Thursday during Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani's visit to Ankara, which revolved around trade, military, and technical cooperation. The agreements were part of the Turkey-Qatar High Strategic Committee meeting, co-chaired by al Thani and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. The visit came amid serious regional tensions, as Qatar recently paused its mediation role in talks between Hamas and Israel due to a lack of progress. Ankara, a vocal critic of Israel's actions in Gaza and Lebanon, does not classify Hamas as a terrorist organization, and some Hamas political officials have visited Turkey. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

Philippines’ resupply mission to grounded vessel goes smoothly under deal with Beijing.The Philippine navy successfully shipped supplies and personnel to its outpost at the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on Thursday without incident. This marks the third such smooth-sailing mission to the atoll since the adoption of a July agreement with China, aimed at reducing confrontations. This temporary arrangement, the first of its kind between China and a rival claimant, allows Manila to resupply its rusting, beached ship, BRP Sierra Madre, without notifying or being inspected by Chinese forces. The shoal, called Ayungin by the Philippines and Ren’ai Jiao by China, has been a flashpoint in broader South China Sea territorial disputes. Before the agreement, confrontations were frequent and violent, including a June incident in which Chinese forces rammed Philippine boats, seized supplies, and injured personnel. The deal, which does not resolve territorial claims, applies only to the contested Second Thomas Shoal. While the agreement has reduced tensions there, scattered confrontations continue in other parts of the region, where countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan are also involved in spats.  South China Morning Post Associated Press Reuters 

Taiwan’s president planning to visit Hawaii on island-hopping trip through Pacific.Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te is reportedly planning stopovers in Hawaii and possibly Guam, both of which are home to major U.S. military bases, during an upcoming visit to Taiwan's diplomatic allies in the Pacific. This event, Lai's first overseas trip since taking office in May, is sensitive due to China's staunch objections to any interaction between the Taiwanese government and foreign officials, as Beijing views the island as its territory and opposes such transits through the U.S. Lai's itinerary likely includes visits to Pacific nations such as the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau—three of the 12 countries that maintain formal ties with Taipei. These visits are strategically significant, as China continues efforts to reduce the self-governing island’s international recognition. Lai's U.S. stopovers are expected to be low-key, aligning with a practice by previous Taiwanese presidents to meet with friendly U.S. politicians during transit. China has condemned such trips and urged Washington to deny Lai's transit, citing its opposition to "separatist acts." Reuters 

North Korea tests exploding drones as U.S., allies conduct drills, leader Kim demands mass production. North Korea tested exploding drones capable of accurately striking targets. State media showcased images of drones, including those with X-shaped tails and wings, destroying vehicles and old tanks during the tests. Kim Jong Un called for the rapid, mass production of these low-cost, easily manufactured weapons underscoring the increasing importance of drones in modern warfare and their versatility for military operations. The demonstration coincided with joint military drills by the U.S., South Korea, and Japan involving advanced fighter jets and a U.S. aircraft carrier, demonstrating their defense posture against Pyongyang’s threats. Associated Press France 24 Reuters New York Times

AFRICA

Rights organization says French weapons system recovered on vehicles in Sudan likely breach of U.N. arms embargo. Amnesty International reported on Thursday that armored vehicles manufactured in the UAE and equipped with French defense systems have been used by Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in its ongoing conflict with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). These vehicles, identified as UAE-made Nimr Ajban APCs equipped with the French-made Galix defense system, were captured or destroyed by the army in various parts of the country, including Darfur. Amnesty claims their use in the devastating civil war likely violates a U.N. arms embargo on Sudan. The UAE doggedly denies supplying weapons to the RSF, stating it is being targeted by a "coordinated disinformation campaign." French manufacturer Lacroix Defense confirmed supplying the Galix system to the UAE under export licenses but denies any involvement in Sudan's conflict. Amnesty has urged France to stop providing these systems to the UAE. The U.S. recently sanctioned an RSF leader for facilitating weapons transfers to the paramilitary group via a UAE-based company. Despite denials of involvement, the report raises concerns about foreign arms fueling the conflict, and violations of international regulations. Associated Press The Guardian VOA Defense Post Amnesty International Euronews  

Australia’s Resolute CEO still detained in Mali, shares suspended as nation demands $160 million.The CEO of Resolute Mining, Terence Holohan, and two other employees remained detained in Mali as of Thursday, according to diplomatic sources. The Australian company stated earlier that the detentions occurred during discussions with Malian authorities over its business practices. Resolute's shares fell 8.1%, reaching their lowest level since March, after reports emerged that Mali's military-led government is seeking $161 million from the company over alleged back taxes. Mali's ruling junta, which adopted a new mining code in August 2023 to increase state ownership of gold concessions and recover lost revenues, has strained relations with other foreign mining companies. This includes Barrick Gold and B2Gold, which have faced similar demands in the past.  Reuters Bloomberg

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Amazon questioned by U.S. Congress over ‘dangerous’ TikTok partnership.Amazon representatives met with the House Select Committee on China in September to address concerns over the company's partnership with TikTok, a Chinese-owned app facing a potential U.S. ban due to national security risks. The committee criticized Amazon's collaboration with the platform, warning that it was "dangerous and unwise" given TikTok’s ties to ByteDance, a Chinese tech giant. The partnership, announced in August, allows TikTok users to buy Amazon products directly through the app, integrating their accounts for streamlined purchases. The deal helps Amazon access TikTok’s Gen Z audience and boosts TikTok’s U.S. presence, just months before a law mandates ByteDance to divest TikTok or face a nationwide ban in January 2024. Some lawmakers viewed Amazon’s move as an effort to complicate the TikTok ban. Amazon has similar partnerships with other platforms like Meta and Pinterest but also holds sensitive contracts with U.S. government agencies, raising additional concerns. Despite bipartisan support for banning TikTok, other companies, including the NFL and UnitedMasters, have recently expanded partnerships with the app, reflecting skepticism about the ban's likelihood. President-elect Donald Trump has expressed opposition to banning TikTok, suggesting the policy's future remains uncertain. Bloomberg South China Morning Post CNBC  

E.U. fines Meta $843 Million for Marketplace ads platform. The European Commission fined Meta Platforms approximately $843 million for antitrust violations, accusing the company of tying its classified-ads platform, Marketplace, to its social network, Facebook, to gain an unfair competitive advantage. The E.U. claimed Meta’s practices favored its own services and imposed unfair trading conditions on competing classified-ads providers using Meta’s platforms, leveraging their advertising data to its benefit. This is the bloc’s first antitrust fine against Meta for alleged abuse of its dominance in the social media sector. The commission ordered Meta to end these practices and refrain from similar behavior in the future. The California-based company plans to appeal, arguing that the decision overlooks the competitive nature of the European online classifieds market and denies misusing competitors' data. The investigation began in 2021, and while Meta resolved a similar U.K. probe without penalties by altering data usage practices, it faces harsher consequences in the E.U. The decision comes as Margrethe Vestager, the E.U.’s competition commissioner known for her strong stance on Big Tech, prepares to leave her position, marking another significant action during her tenure. Wall Street Journal BBC CNN New York Times 

Iranian hacking group targets aerospace industry with malware through hoax job recruiters. Iranian hackers, suspected to be part of the cyberwarfare group TA455 (linked to the government-backed Charming Kitten), have launched a LinkedIn-based espionage campaign targeting the aerospace industry. Using fake recruiter profiles and websites, the hackers distributed malicious files, including SnailResin malware, which deploys the SlugResin backdoor. These tools have been previously associated with Charming Kitten and, at times, North Korean state-sponsored groups like Lazarus and Kimsuky. Active since September 2023, the campaign aims to deceive victims by leveraging trusted platforms like LinkedIn and disguising traffic through legitimate services such as Cloudflare and Microsoft Azure Cloud to evade detection. ClearSky researchers suggest the attackers may be mimicking North Korean methods or collaborating with them. The campaign builds on Iran's history of targeting the aerospace, aviation, and defense sectors in regions like Israel, the UAE, India and Eastern Europe, adapting tactics to bypass current security measures. By using fabricated recruiter identities and trusted platforms, the hackers increase the likelihood of victims engaging with their malicious content, posing a significant threat to entities opposing Iran’s geopolitical objectives. The Record The Hacker News Infosecurity Magazine  

Hackers attacking victims across Europe with Strela Stealer malware.Researchers at IBM X-Force say that the cybercriminal group Hive0145 is targeting victims across Europe, particularly in Spain, Germany, and Ukraine, by using the Strela Stealer malware delivered through phishing emails disguised as legitimate invoice notifications. Initially using fake emails, the group now exploits stolen emails from real entities in sectors like finance, technology, and manufacturing. Strela Stealer, which has been active since 2022, is designed to extract credentials from Microsoft and Mozilla email clients. Recent versions also gather both system data and installed applications, and check keyboard language to target specific regions. Hive0145 likely uses stolen credentials for email fraud or sells them for further exploitation in business email compromise schemes. While Hive0145's attack volume has increased, the malware’s core functionality remains unchanged. The group’s activities resemble financially motivated attacks in Ukraine linked to unidentified Russian-associated hackers, with phishing campaigns often leveraging previously compromised email addresses. Hive0145’s exact origin remains unknown. The Record 

Swiss cyber agency warns public about mail delivered malware scam.Switzerland's Federal Office for Cybersecurity (OFCS) issued a warning this week about fraudulent postal letters impersonating the national meteorological agency, MeteoSwiss, to distribute malware. The letters, dated November 12, falsely promote a weather app and include a QR code that directs users to download malicious software called "Coper" and "Octo2." These programs aim to steal sensitive data, including login credentials for over 383 apps, such as e-banking services. This method, which involves physical mail, is rare due to its complexity compared to online hacking. The malicious app mimics Switzerland’s official "Alertswiss" app and targets only Android devices. Affected users are advised to perform a factory reset on their phones. The OFCS has not disclosed the number of victims but encourages individuals who receive the fake letters to report them electronically and then destroy them. The agency has begun implementing protective measures to counter the attack. The Record 

Hungary’s defense procurement agency hacked by cybercrime group.Hungary's defense procurement agency (VBÜ) was targeted by the cybergang INC Ransomware group, which claimed on Thursday to have breached its servers, encrypted files, and stolen sensitive data. The hackers posted screenshots of the stolen information, including documents about the Hungarian army’s air and land capabilities and other non-public military procurement data. Some of the leaked files are reportedly recent, dating back to October. Hungarian officials confirmed the attack but emphasized that the VBÜ does not store sensitive military data. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's chief of staff described the perpetrators as a "hostile foreign, non-state hacker group." The hackers are demanding a $5 million ransom, but officials have not disclosed whether negotiations are taking place. The Hungarian Ministry of National Defense has refrained from commenting on potential data leaks, citing an ongoing investigation. The Record Euronews Reuters 

Powell says healthy economy permits Fed to weigh rate cuts ‘carefully’. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated on Thursday that current economic strength allows the Fed to carefully consider the pace of future interest rate cuts. He stressed that there is no urgency to lower rates, given solid economic growth and a cooling labor market under restrictive monetary policies. The Fed recently cut rates twice, with its benchmark now at 4.5%-4.75%, and is expected to lower rates again in December. However, Powell hinted at potentially slowing rate cuts as rates approach a "neutral level" below 4%. Inflation has decreased since mid-2023 but remains uneven, with core inflation projected at 2.8% and overall inflation at 2.3% for the year ending October. Powell expressed confidence in inflation returning to the Fed’s 2% target but acknowledged the path might be uneven. Recent inflation reports slightly exceeded expectations, prompting further analysis. Powell also noted uncertainty about how potential policy changes under President-elect Donald Trump might impact the economy, particularly regarding tariffs, which differ from prior trade conflicts due to the current inflationary environment. Wall Street Journal 

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion in The Cipher Brief